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200: The Power of Predicting Weather Before It Happens with Gary Lezak · CattleUSA Daily

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  In today's podcast episode with Gary Lezak, we are breaking down
• 0:04
  the LRC and the weather cycle. What is happening in the world
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  of the weather right now? For all of you listeners out
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  there, if this is your first time listening to one of Gary's
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  episodes, he has this amazing product that he created called
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  Weather 2020 and it is a whole product based around the LRC,
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  which is the Lezak recurring cycle.
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  Gary and I have been discussing the cycle every single week for
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  weeks on, and Gary has been with us almost since the beginning of
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  this podcast, guys. And so right now, the LRC is in
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  the midst of setting up for this next year.
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  And so in today's podcast episode, we're not going to sit
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  here and tell you what's going to happen throughout all of
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  winter because we don't have an accurate prediction of that yet.
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  But what Gary is going to do is kind of explain what's happening
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  in the weather right now, in the cycles right now, some key
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  indicators that he's seen with that and how it's going to
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  affect all of our farmers and ranchers out there as we look
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  out into the next year worth of weather.
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  Before we hop into this episode, if you are watching on YouTube,
• 1:05
  make sure that you like and subscribe.
• 1:07
  And if you are watching on any of our podcast platforms, take a
• 1:10
  second to make sure you are following the show and go right
• 1:12
  and review it as well. Thank you for listening to
• 1:14
  another episode and let's go ahead and hear from Gary.
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  Welcome to the Cattle USA Daily podcast, your go to source for
• 1:25
  the latest livestock markets, industry insights and the
• 1:28
  updates shaping agriculture today.
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  I'm your host, Lauren Moylan, a passionate advocate for
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  agriculture, here to keep you informed and connected.
• 1:36
  Now let's dive into today's episode.
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  Gary, welcome back to the podcast.
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  How is life in beautiful Colorado?
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  Have you had your freeze yet? Have you guys had any snow?
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  How's how's the dogs? How's everything?
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  We've had a freeze but we have not had snow and it's not even
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  close. Even down to 1000 feet it is yet
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  to snow and even up in the mountains it's barely snowed.
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  So it has been a very slow start to winter here for the ski areas
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  and that continues to this day and for another week maybe.
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  Wow, that is crazy. Let's talk about you just showed
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  me a super cute video of the dogs posing it up for the Aurora
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  borealis last night. Yes.
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  What's going on with that tell? Us all about the the Northern
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  Lights of the Aurora borealis. It's like the solar storm.
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  It's called a coronal mass ejection.
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  That's what it's called for real.
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  So there was a coronal mass ejection on the sun and this
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  solar energy and flare spreads out and it's over our sky.
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  So on Tuesday and Wednesday nights, if you were looking, you
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  might have seen the Northern Lights.
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  I, for the first time ever saw them.
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  Never seen them before. And it was rather spectacular.
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  So yeah, I got the dogs to pose. You can go to my Facebook, my
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  Gary Liszak fan page and check that out.
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  But yeah, that was exciting. That has no impact on our
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  weather whatsoever. And but it's certainly an
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  interesting event. And tonight when we're recording
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  this on a Wednesday, where it tonight, it does look like it's
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  going to be happening again. So it's going to be exciting.
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  Yes, very much so. Well, what is happening in the
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  weather pattern right now? We're still in the midst of the
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  LRC setting up. You just sent out your weather
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  report yesterday. What kind of did you talk about
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  in there and what are we seeing so far in the weather pattern
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  setting up right now, Gary? Well, you know, I started by
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  saying that the roulette wheel of weather continues to spin and
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  the ball is slowing down. It's about to drop into a slot
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  in Nebraska. Is it going to drop into the
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  drought spot spot? Or is it going to go into the
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  cold and snowy slot or the rainy and cool slot or the sunny and
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  dry slot? Which slot is it going to land
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  in Nebraska? Which slot is going to land in
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  Kansas? Which slot in your farm in
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  Missouri or Iowa? How about eastern Colorado,
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  western Kansas? Where will the ball drop?
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  So the part of the pattern that just moved through produce, the
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  cold outbreak and the lake effect snow through the Great
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  Lakes, that part of the pattern is going to return.
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  All right, so but when right now I got a sneaking suspicion it
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  could be close to a two-month cycle this year, close to that.
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  So 60th days maybe could be be any cycle length, I'm not sure
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  yet. It's usually the same where we
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  can really identify what that is.
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  But when the Arctic blast comes in January, don't be surprised.
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  We will be talking about how remember back in November when
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  that lake effect snow happened? The same part of the pattern is
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  cycling through against as the first thing I talked about in
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  the report that you can access for a discount through Cattle
• 5:02
  USA and and Lauren will tell you that the links are down below.
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  You can have the model itself that is now projected to go out
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  a year ahead. That includes growing degree
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  days and everything, but right now, in the first part of this
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  weather pattern, it has been below average on precipitation
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  across much of the eastern half of Colorado, all of Nebraska,
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  Iowa, most of Minnesota, SE, South Dakota, Wisconsin,
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  Illinois, Missouri, and Kansas. There's a little sliver near
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  average rainfall over Manhattan, KS down to Wichita, but
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  otherwise it has been fairly dry.
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  Compare that to a year ago. A year ago it was wet over
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  central and western Kansas. At this time of the year in
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  November, it was pretty wet and then there was a huge bullseye
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  of heavy precipitation over Texas and New Mexico.
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  And that is likely directly related to the biggest disaster
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  of the year, the big flooding disaster near Kerr Valley there
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  in Texas, 135 people killed. Anyway, that's last year.
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  And another thing, Lauren, it's above average on temperatures to
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  much above average on temperatures from Texas,
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  Colorado across Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, Iowa and
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  Missouri. So even in the Great Lakes were
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  just had the lake effect shown and cold spell it's it's a
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  little bit above average there too.
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  It's still a warmer than average pattern that is setting up.
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  And what happens is the weather pattern is cycling according to
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  the RC. The RC was named after me back
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  in the early 2000s when we started making accurate long
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  range predictions. And the LRC is the biggest piece
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  of the atmospheric jigsaw. There are other things like the
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  PDO, the AO, the NAO, and we'll talk about those in just a
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  second. But basically, the pattern is
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  evolving, setting up, and it is a fascinating 1.
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  And we're trying to figure out what it means for planting,
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  growing and harvest seasons coming up soon.
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  So we will have that figured out by December.
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  We're going to our models going to project all the way through
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  that right now on the report I published yesterday, you can see
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  the growing degree day forecast all the way through April for
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  the broad area. But that'll be we'll tighten
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  that up a little bit. But it is fascinating to watch
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  unfold. Other forecasters, Lauren.
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  So I don't want to call out any names, but just the big
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  companies to individual forecasters that now have a huge
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  following on social media. You know, I'm jealous of some of
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  these following some of these young kids now have with
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  3,000,000 YouTube followers. One way I could do that if I
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  want to, I could start covering tornadoes and I would get a huge
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  following. But I don't want to spend my day
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  covering tornadoes all day long. OK.
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  So, but it allows you, if you're good at it, you'll get a huge
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  following because people, there's a value and there's a
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  very important task of bringing good weather information to
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  people. But these other forecasters,
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  including those influencers, they react, OK, They are
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  reactive. And I put this in my report that
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  I published yesterday, Those forecasts are reactive.
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  So in other words, if 15 days from now an Arctic blast shows
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  up on the computer models, and those models go out about 15
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  days with just a little bit of accuracy, not even that
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  accurate, those other forecasts will react and say sudden
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  stratospheric warming is taking place in the next 15 days and
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  it's going to lead to an Arctic blast because that's what they
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  saw on a computer model. They reacted to the computer
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  model or they react to something else they hear or see.
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  That's the big difference. What what we're bringing to you
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  here is not reacting to what a model shows in 15 days.
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  Oh, I might say, Oh my gosh, look at that.
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  It's showing a big snowstorm for Christmas.
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  That's me reacting. But then I'll say and look,
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  that's the storm we have been predicting for 45 days already.
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  So there's a difference there. The others react to what a model
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  says and we I guess are proactive instead of reactive.
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  And we are telling you what is likely going to happen.
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  The Weather 2020 is creating this road map, this blueprint of
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  the weather pattern. And I hate to say here we are in
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  this conversation week after week.
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  It is mid November now and I'm still telling you I need to
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  learn more. We need just two or three more
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  weeks by early December. I'm going to issue a winter
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  forecast that I will share with you guys and we will start
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  having high confidence and what's going to happen.
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  It's just that right now we still have to see how this first
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  cycle sets up. That's what our patent pending
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  is. We have a patent pending on
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  weather prediction using weather cycles.
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  No one does it the way we do it. And they that that reactive one
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  I was talking about earlier, that same person said this lines
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  up with eight other past years. OK, in my lineup with eight
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  other past years, but guess what's going to happen in
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  20/25/2026. It will be the 20252026 version
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  of the pattern and not like those other years.
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  Maybe there's some similarities. There are similarities.
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  There's similarities. It's going to turn cold this
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  winter. That's the similarity.
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  It's going to get hot next summer.
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  That's a similarity. Sometimes people blast me.
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  Oh boy. Gary's predicting a heat wave.
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  July 10th, the 18th. Oh my goodness, that's hard.
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  It's going to get hot in July. No, I'm predicting a heat wave
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  July 10th, the 18th. Not July 19th, the 26th.
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  There's a difference. Anyway, I'm on a long tangent
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  and and ramp without you having any response.
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  What do you think of all that? No, Gary, you are completely
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  fine on that. But I love what you said about
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  the proactive aspect. Instead of being reactive.
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  I think that you look across multiple industries and multiple
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  different sectors and you can look at that as a common theme
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  in a lot of our lives is something happens when we react
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  to it rather than sitting in a scenario and saying how can I
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  proactive in this scenario, in this situation.
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  And weather, I think especially for farmers and ranchers for so
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  long has been one of those things that's like, I'll look at
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  the long term weather predictive things.
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  I'll look at the 30 day forecast, the 15 day forecast,
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  like it gets kind of accurate as you get closer.
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  But I can't really tell when I need to be looking at like
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  getting more help for calving because we're going to have a
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  snowstorm coming. Rather than doing that two weeks
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  in advance, being able to do that a month, two months, three
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  months in advance of, hey, maybe not the exact dates, but like ±1
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  or two days. This is what's going to happen
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  around this time. And I think that that is so
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  empowering to so many people because it allows us to get in
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  that proactive stance rather than a reactive stance.
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  And I mean, there's all the jokes and all the memes about
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  weather men out there and how all they're doing is just
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  telling you what's happening in the sky outside that day and
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  that, you know, they probably can't tell you what's happening
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  tomorrow. Like all of those jokes that,
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  you know, Gary and your many years of experience have
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  probably heard them all. But this is completely different
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  than the norm, right? And it's kind of going against
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  the grain of what we know weather and weather prediction
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  to be. Right.
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  And when it comes to long range predictions, I saw this one
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  winter forecast that remember anything that comes out before
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  mid to late November is not including the most important
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  piece of the puzzle, the LRC. And so they come up with these
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  forecasts. And by the way, this whole 20
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  minute video watched one of these winter forecasts
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  yesterday. What did it end up saying?
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  Basically it says it's going to be a little bit below average on
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  snow and near average on temperatures.
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  Oh boy, that was a 20 minute forecast.
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  To tell me something that really doesn't help you what weather
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  2020 does. We'll be able to show you our,
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  our dashboard week by week, what's going to happen week by
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  week from from December all the way through next September.
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  And then you can look at that when you learn how to use this
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  tool, you can start planning for, hey, it looks like the
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  three weeks between February 25th and March 15th looks dry.
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  But the three, three, March 15th and April first looks what we
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  might want to get our planting in before that.
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  And so you can start planning beforehand.
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  And then when it actually is accurate, you've got the plan in
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  place and you're ready to go. You're not reacting to the
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  weather. And so that's how it works.
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  It's, is it 100% accurate? Of course it is not.
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  I wish it was and I strive. I want it to be 100% accurate,
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  but it is just not. I mean, 100% accurate is
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  ridiculous. With tornado outbreaks, it's 90%
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  accurate. We are predicting severe weather
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  outbreaks months in advance down to a day or two right on or a
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  day or two off, possibly three months, four months in advance
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  at a 90% clip. Winter storms predicted 90% clip
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  a month or two out and we'll have those for you soon.
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  And but when it comes to every day's weather, our accuracy is
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  not going to be that high. It's going to be 50 percent,
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  40%. That sounds bad, but if you
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  know, at 15 days when somebody tells this to be a winter storm
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  in 15 days, the next day they'll, you'll say, is that
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  with the storm showing up? They'll say, no, it is not, it's
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  not there anymore. It's not.
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  Those are 25% accurate. So we're twice as accurate as
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  some of those other ones. Anyway.
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  That's that's the difference. And, and with the next three
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  weeks, we're going to learn so much more about this pattern.
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  And right now as we speak, there is a series of storm systems
• 15:37
  coming into California. California is going to get bomb
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  blasted. Is that a word?
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  It is now. They're going to get hit hard by
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  a, a very wet storm system. And by the way, that other
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  forecaster said Southern California is going to be dry
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  all winter. You count, I guess you don't
• 15:54
  count this for winter, do you? But it's going to return.
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  But Southern California, Central California, they're going to get
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  blasted by the storm system flooding.
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  It's going to happen Friday and Saturday.
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  That could be 678 inches of rain, which is extremely unusual
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  for for that, but the storm setting up and it's related to
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  one from about a month ago that they had.
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  So I think that's a half cycle. That's why I told you it could
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  be a 60 day cycle. That's top secret, by the way,
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  if you know what that means. And so but but that storm's
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  coming in and then that's a story that's going to head
• 16:27
  towards Colorado. The Kansas City Chiefs play
• 16:29
  Denver on Sunday in a must win situation.
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  I believe it's a must win. The Chiefs have got to beat the
• 16:34
  Denver Broncos. So I named it this week.
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  Stop the Broncos week. And I live in Denver as the
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  people. I hate me.
• 16:41
  The Chiefs have to win this game Sunday And they may not, you
• 16:44
  know, football games go. If they don't, they're in
• 16:46
  trouble about making the playoffs.
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  Seriously. So and if they don't, they
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  don't. But I think that there's a lot
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  of a line. Let's hope that they could show
• 16:53
  up, but the weather, that storm that comes into California is
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  heading this way and it doesn't get here till Sunday night or
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  Monday. So that means it'll be an
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  absolutely gorgeous day for that game here.
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  Yes, I am so excited to see this weather pattern set up and be
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  able to go back to like, hey, what's happening in three
• 17:11
  months, Gary? And being able to break all of
• 17:14
  that down with like crazy accuracy.
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  Because Gary, you've been with this podcast pretty much since
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  the beginning and doing episodes every week with us.
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  And this has been something that over the past.
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  Gary, this episode is episode #200 wow.
• 17:29
  That's gonna come out. No episode. #200 And so over the
• 17:34
  past however many weeks, almost a year that we've been doing
• 17:37
  this podcast, it has been really cool to be able to sit back and
• 17:42
  say like, OK, in April we talked about this.
• 17:45
  We talked about this three month forecast and then three months
• 17:49
  later we were talking about that and in the moment, do I always
• 17:53
  like sit there and I'm like, oh, we talked about that three
• 17:55
  months ago. No, but like looking back and
• 17:58
  being super reflective, it's like we've been talking about
• 18:00
  this stuff and it's really cool to be able to get into that
• 18:04
  groove. And so I'm really excited to see
• 18:06
  this weather pattern set up. And that's what.
• 18:08
  Just be able to talk about your brainchild.
• 18:11
  Yeah. And that's one of the things we
• 18:12
  talked about in our weather2020.substac.com report.
• 18:15
  That Weather 2020 Intelligence Report is just that, like we, we
• 18:19
  time stamp since we do these updates also every week,
• 18:22
  sometimes twice a week. That storm that hit California
• 18:26
  October 3rd, I, I can go back a month ago and say, wait a
• 18:30
  second, here's what we said. This is going to return.
• 18:32
  It'll be interesting when this returns, it'll be a hint at what
• 18:35
  the cycle length is. And here it is.
• 18:37
  Boom, 30 days later they're getting hit again.
• 18:40
  It's it may not be a 30 day cycle.
• 18:42
  I know it's likely not, but the potential of a double that is
• 18:46
  very high at this moment. So you're in on that little
• 18:49
  secret. I shouldn't be telling you that
• 18:50
  because it was top secret information, but 60 day cycle,
• 18:54
  62 days cycle is a possibility. Now, three weeks from now, I
• 18:58
  might have a completely different tune as we learn a
• 19:00
  little bit more, but that's how that's the first indication,
• 19:02
  first data that's coming in. And it's extremely important
• 19:05
  because that allows us to know when and where things will
• 19:07
  happen. That other guy tag in and these
• 19:09
  other forecasts that come out, they can spend an hour going
• 19:12
  blah, blah this and blah blah that about the PDO, the MJO, the
• 19:17
  AO, the NAO. They don't mention the LRC,
• 19:20
  Enzo, La Nina, El Nino. They mentioned all these things,
• 19:27
  but they don't know when and where something's going to
• 19:29
  happen. That's exciting.
• 19:31
  I'm very excited to keep discussing this over the next
• 19:34
  three weeks and be the first place that we get to talk about
• 19:38
  the new weather pattern being fully set up.
• 19:40
  When that day does come here in just a few short weeks, we're
• 19:44
  going to be chatting about that. So very exciting time.
• 19:47
  Gary, as always, thank you for your time.
• 19:49
  Thank you for your intelligence, your thoughts and sharing LRC
• 19:53
  with us and kind of what's going on in the weather right now.
• 19:56
  To all of our listeners, I have everyone of Gary's links, link
• 19:59
  down below. Whether you just love Gary's
• 20:02
  personality and you want to follow him on social media or
• 20:04
  whether you want to get in on. Weather 2020.
• 20:07
  See what it's all about. I've got all of those links down
• 20:09
  below for you guys as well. Thank you so much for listening
• 20:12
  to another episode of the Cattle USA Daily Podcast.
• 20:15
  Happy episode 200 to everyone listening.
• 20:18
  Thank you so much for being here and we will see you all tomorrow
• 20:21
  on another episode. Have a good one y'all.