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Is Apple Finished? Reaction to Tariffs Shaking the Tech Giant’s Future, Should You Sell Your Stock · Earn Your Leisure

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  Speaker 3: Okay, we're not even gonna play no games's let's jump
• 1:54
  Speaker 3: right into this.
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 1:55
  Speaker 3: The first thing I want to talk I want to
• 1:57
  Speaker 3: ask you is is Apple efficiently effectively done? Is when
• 2:04
  Speaker 3: I say done, I mean like, is it time to
• 2:07
  Speaker 3: take them out of the two tech two index philosophy?
• 2:10
  Speaker 3: Is it time to is it time to abandon ship?
• 2:15
  Speaker 3: Because it's like, if tariffs is really going to happen
• 2:17
  Speaker 3: and these iPhone is going to come to twenty two
• 2:20
  Speaker 3: hundred dollars for the for the most expensive one. Right,
• 2:23
  Speaker 3: we already talked about all the other problems that they have,
• 2:26
  Speaker 3: and Apple is the leading stock and a lot of
• 2:29
  Speaker 3: major ets. I think it's leading XOK and it's it's
• 2:34
  Speaker 3: the leading stock in a lot of people's portfolio. Warren
• 2:37
  Speaker 3: Buffett sold a lot of his Apple stock. We'll talk
• 2:39
  Speaker 3: about him later. Has the day come to abandon Apple?
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: I mean I just said last week we needed to
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: sit new ceo and you call me crazy heart, I say, no,
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: one's crazy. Well, you can't say it more local.
• 3:00
  Speaker 3: You can't blame this on Tim Cook though, this is
• 3:02
  Speaker 3: this is the rule.
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: Number one is the ceo. Man, and man, everything that
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: happens on your watch is your fault. That's true. That's all. Oh,
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: but they made the move to India to offset tariffs.
• 3:16
  Speaker 2: Great way to play late.
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: That was even part of the question last week, right,
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: like is their day coming? When they dropped under twenty percent?
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: Obviously now they went down under thirty. But where we at?
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna give my honest take about this. And it's
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: not because I created two tech two index. If I
• 3:33
  Speaker 2: made you money, please put yes in chat? Is that
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: they here? Now? No? Do I think it could happen
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: before twenty thirty four? For sure? Let's start with the positives.
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: Gross profit margin forty six point five two percent for
• 3:53
  Speaker 2: a fledgling, non innovative tech company. That is amazing. You
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: can't take that away. And the number one, please write
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: this down. The number one reason I constructed Apple and
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: Microsoft into the two tech two index scenario is draw down.
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: Even though they got the boot smoke today with Nike,
• 4:14
  Speaker 2: what's to draw down this year for Apple? Please put
• 4:17
  Speaker 2: it in chat. Y'all said, y'all want me to restore
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: the feeling, to bring the old essence back. I got
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: you what's to draw down this year thus far? So
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: if you compare Apple to Tesla, Tesla draw down is
• 4:31
  Speaker 2: two to three times bigger than Apple. So when you're
• 4:34
  Speaker 2: building your portfolio, the games are important, but how much
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: you can draw down is the most important thing you
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: want to factor in. And then profit margin. If that
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: profit margin was thirty percent of twenty nine Mortal Kombat
• 4:47
  Speaker 2: follow us victory fatality, I would be replacing them for
• 4:50
  Speaker 2: in video a long time ago. Now, what I don't
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: like about the business not a lot of innovation they
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: are even as tariff move. No, you can't solely blame him,
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: But if you've been to the White House during this
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: administration and last you knew this was coming. How are
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: you just now making an adjustment to make that move
• 5:08
  Speaker 2: in India when you know India's market is more in
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: portant important than ours in terms of market share going
• 5:15
  Speaker 2: forward for the next ten years. I think he's reacting
• 5:18
  Speaker 2: too slow. It's like when Harden started doing a step
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: back and then like everyone started doing it. I remember
• 5:23
  Speaker 2: the days when they would innovate and they would lead.
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: So it's a time yet. But well, I maybe moved
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: that date up from twenty thirty four to thirty two.
• 5:32
  Speaker 3: Probably well, twenty thirty two, I mean that's still a
• 5:36
  Speaker 3: long so you're still bullesh on app.
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: Yeah, forty six point five to two gross prop from Yeah,
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: for sure. I'm just asking because I know, yeah, I'm
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: not talking to my brother, you my guy.
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: As long as long as those statistics stay the way
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: they are, obviously it makes a lot of sense. Yeah,
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: I think the question for the people a lot of
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: people who are watching now is is this the bottom
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: for Apple?
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: Right?
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: This is twenty seven percent down as of today. There
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: still might be some room to fall here. Right when
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: we're talking about tariffs, we saw I mean we were
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: just sitting just.
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: Watching our phones.
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: Now the China retaliatory tablet came through at thirty four percent.
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: Yep, we come back.
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: Now we had another fifty percent without one hundred and
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: four percent tariff.
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: We know China like one hundred and four percent is grazy.
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: China accounts for eighty percent of apples production capacity. What
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: that does to the business. I know, we spoke about India.
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: It's so interesting when we were talked about India and
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: we talked about the declining sales of the iPhone inside
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: of China. We said, maybe it's not a product, it's
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: a new region, but it speaks to how long it
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: takes to get these businesses up and running, these factories
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: up and running.
• 6:48
  Speaker 2: They've been working in India for three years.
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: Right, they're saying potentially, right, if they expedite this the
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: manufacturing in India, it could account to fifteen percent of production.
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: And that's half to three almost four years years of
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: ability to get the infrastructure together. It can increase it
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: from I think now where it's at like maybe seven
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: to eight percent to up to fifteen percent, which is
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: a large jump, but it took four years to do that. Right,
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: you're talking about tariffs that are happening now there might
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: there's not going to be another four years sustain this,
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: and so something has to happen, right, like we gotta
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: they got to figure something.
• 7:23
  Speaker 2: Out here, or like a new CEO.
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: Well, I don't even know if a new CEO changes this,
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: right because the CEO of the country the way he's moving.
• 7:35
  Speaker 2: Okay, it's really tough to write, right. I have a
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: question for you. When you guys plan invest fest, do
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: you start three months before or the day after? Investmentest
• 7:44
  Speaker 2: is over the most important thing for a leader as contingency.
• 7:48
  Speaker 2: My first thought every day is what combination of factors
• 7:51
  Speaker 2: could put me out of business. It got too comfortable
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: with And I said this in stock Club. I said, here,
• 7:59
  Speaker 2: geopolitical risks first, then fundamentals, then technicals. You can't also
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: all your way out of this. So I think Apple
• 8:09
  Speaker 2: got too comfortable. And the thing is, Okay, we went
• 8:13
  Speaker 2: to GtC. When's the last time we've heard any significant
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: news come out of Developer Day at Apple in terms
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: of product or in terms of software anything.
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean it's it's the typical the iOS update,
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: the new MacBook, the new iPad. They tried with division
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: pro that really didn't work.
• 8:35
  Speaker 2: So the product back and we've covered Apple Intelligence if
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: that was a financial product.
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: Right, I mean every quarter it seems it's almost getting
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: forgot about in the rollout of announcements, right, Like that
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: was supposed to be part of the phone when it
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: dropped in September. They said it was going to be
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: there by December. We're here in April. They still haven't. Really,
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's it's there, but nobody's will to use it,
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: so it's full capabil They have their June summit's coming up,
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: and so there's a possibility there.
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: I hope. So I don't know. Apple load the boat
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: one fifty one forty.
• 9:09
  Speaker 3: Seven, Apple load the boat one fifty one. Okay, all right,
• 9:16
  Speaker 3: all right, you heard it there. That's lower than the
• 9:19
  Speaker 3: fifty two week low. For sure, that's low. That's pretty low.
• 9:24
  Speaker 3: But you gotta like Apple at this price though, at
• 9:27
  Speaker 3: least on a dollar cost average.
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: You got if you're looking two years out. But if
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: we are starting a portfolio from scratch, what I put
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: them there first over in video? Absolutely not absolutely not,
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: but you would add them to the portfolio. Yeah, they're
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: probably six seventh eighth man you're.
• 9:45
  Speaker 3: Getting so so okay. So for my personal I'm just
• 9:51
  Speaker 3: personally curious if there is seventh man and you wouldn't
• 9:54
  Speaker 3: put them ahead of in video? And why why are
• 9:56
  Speaker 3: they still in the two tech two index. Why isn't
• 9:59
  Speaker 3: it Mike so often in video?
• 10:00
  Speaker 2: For the two minimum of draw what's in videos? Draw down?
• 10:05
  Speaker 3: So the minimum the risk reward ratio.
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: Or ratio, especially you being a approach being conservative, the
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: number one thing you have to factor in in business
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: is how far can this thing drop? And ken you
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: would stand and pay a lot of you traders right
• 10:21
  Speaker 2: now are getting destroyed thinking that every trade that you could.
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: I know people who are shortened the market who got
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: whipped out to the upside because the stop was too
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: tight and then it dropped to where it was supposed
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: to go. The first thing I'm always factoring in is
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: how much risk will this investment buy me? If I
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: can mitigate that keep that within even the worst case
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: in there, if we have full out contagion micro excuse,
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: Apple and Microsoft together may draw down forty average this
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: including the Steve you Steve Jobs gives. If Apple goes
• 10:53
  Speaker 2: to forty two tests, is gonna be eighty nine percent.
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that alativity is over with.
• 10:59
  Speaker 2: Like you can't and all the fundamental analysis you'll go
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: through and all the charts. That's great. When you're down
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: seventy two percent, you're not thinking anything rational. You're going
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: to sell.
• 11:09
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