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Transcript

Tuesday MLB + WNBA Bets 7/1/25 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: And Missy rouse Don and he has power stop man.
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: He throws regularly above one hundred miles. I believe he
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: had like thirteen or forty pitches that were at least
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: one hundred miles an hour and the radar gun in
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: his first start, which is one hundred mile an hour fastballs.
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: Then hire team is thrown all that one start, you
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: go base losing front again.
• 0:23
  Speaker 2: He's finishing pretty well. They can be getting tacked off
• 0:27
  Speaker 2: the max Ers. He has that name like he's gonna
• 0:30
  Speaker 2: be a Hall of the Game. They can be getting taxed,
• 0:32
  Speaker 2: but you're actually getting this one. Can't lay minus three? Can?
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: They're a huge road favorite here. I mean obviously the
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: Dodgers will wallense Wells starting figure they have every advantage
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: in the lay and the Dodgers. What's up, everybody? It's
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: towed better off dead July first. That means I get
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: to be straight now again instead of gay.
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: Welcome everybody.
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: Uh? With my new intro, I'm kind of throwing off
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: here with the transition from the intro to the show.
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: Yesterday was terrible on the show, so what a great
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: way to end Pride Month with an own four day yesterday. Luckily,
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: I'm not betting these as I continue to point out,
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: I am a conserving my money being risk averse right now,
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: but I think that might have made my June a
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: losing June on it. It's close because I'm still hovering
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: like I'm like just below the break even point on
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: the year if you just count everything that I've been
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: doing this entire time. Cincinnati and Boston, I mean that
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: under was dead immediately.
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: The Red Sox, what.
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: Did they put up like a seventh spot in the
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: first inning against Chase Burns. There were some errors there.
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: I think Burns was tipping his pitches.
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: Man.
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: I think that's what was going on there, because the
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: Red Sox they figured him out real quick. And I
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: think if you watch what was going on there, like
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: he was squeezing his glove more when he was gonna
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: throw the slider. So the players seemed like they could
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: distinguish between what it was gonna have fastball and when
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: it was gonna be a slider.
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: Not good. So that was not even close.
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: The A's and Rays under was not close either, as
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: that game had a bunch of runs early. I was
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: shocked both starting pitchers did terribly and I thought they
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: were both gonna do well. I think each of them
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: had one of the worst outings of the season in
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: that same game. And then Michael walk On the Kansas
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: City game, he had his worst outing of the season
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: pretty much as well. So all of that happens on
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: the days that I want the under. I mean, what
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: are you doing to me?
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: Man? That game still should have gone under.
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: By the way, Kansas City Seattle under seven and a
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: half is when I gave out on that.
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: That was a six to one.
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: Game into the eighth inning of Kansas City put up
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: an extra run for no real reason to make it
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: six to two, and that's what put the game over.
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: That's bullshit, man, That one should have happened the under there.
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: There was just one bad inning, basically one inning where
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: Seattle put up some runs and that was about it.
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: And then San Francisco didn't get there either.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: Ryan Nelson continues to pitch better than I think that
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: he will, so he keeps throwing me off. Logan Web
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: pitched fine as well. He pitched well, but he got
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: a little bit outpitched by Nelson, which I did not expect.
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: The game was still close. It was two too late
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: in the game.
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: You think that once it gets to that point, and
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: maybe the team that's the better team is gonna be
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: able to get at donaldthough Arizona does have a better hitting.
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: But again, I'm thinking the pitching is gonna get us
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: there with San Francisco, and that didn't happen, which is
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: gonna make me look like an idiot because I went
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: against some professional betters with that one, and I thought
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: I was on the side that was getting more of
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: the professional money in that one too.
• 3:33
  Speaker 2: I'll let's forget about it. Let's have a good July. Man.
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: We're coming into July fourth. Hopefully everybody's gonna be doing
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: something fun at the end of the week. Here, grill
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: some burgers, man, some dogs, shoot off some fireworks, you know,
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: go to the beach, build some huge fires, which is
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: what we do like in my hometown, even though the
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: cops have kind of tried to ban it since probably
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: when I was in college. But yeah, man, like back
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: in high school whatever, he used to go to the
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: beach in my beach town and they're just massive bonfires
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: lining the beach.
• 4:04
  Speaker 2: I actually looked really cool up the beach.
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: But there's just too much drunken mayhem basically, and the
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: police were like, we gotta do something about this, but
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: come on, man, just let people have fun. Anyway, Yeah,
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: July fourth coming up. It is one of the more
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: fun holidays, to be honest, because because of what I
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: just said. Let's get into today. Man, we're WNBA. I
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: talked about this game yesterday because I'm an idiot and
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: I'm not used to the WNBA having days off. So
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: this Indiana Minnesota game I talked about yesterday is actually
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: today or tonight, so Minnesota is actually not gonna be
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: on a back to back. The lineup from five to
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: six and a half now in Minnesota. Now it looks
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: like Caitlyn Clark there's a potential that she's coming back
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: in this game. But I mentioned that yesterday and Minnesota
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: was around like a five point favorite. I was like, oh,
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: that line is kind of indicating Caitlin Clark's probably coming back.
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: But now the line's like six and a half seven.
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: I don't know what the as indicating to us because
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: she's still a game time decision. So if Clark comes back,
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: I would say, probably want to look to the Minnesota
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: side because it's that reverse injured player spot. And when
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: Indiana gets their star player back, the chemistry changes again.
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: They have to get used to her back in there,
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: and she actually was having some bad games leading into
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: her current injury as well, So probably would lean to
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: the Minnesota side if Clark is coming back. I don't
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: want to actually try to play it though, and we
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: don't know if she's gonna come back until tonight, so
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: I don't really want to give that out as a
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: play or anything like that either, but highly unlikely. I'm
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: gonna put my money on this game. But that is
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: the situation there and Minnesota. Uh, the one issue there
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: is that they just blew out connecticuts. Even though Connecticut sucks. Still,
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: you beat anybody but almost forty points in the WNBA,
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: scoring over one hundred, you're gonna be feeling a little
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: bit high on yourselves too. But even so, I don't
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: think Minnesota's gonna overlook when Caitlyn Clark comes into their place,
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: assuming she is gonna play.
• 5:58
  Speaker 2: Let's go to baseball here.
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: If Yankees Toronto Toronto won yesterday five to four.
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: Toronto did use more of their.
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: Bullpen yesterday, so the Yankees bullpen is probably in better
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: shape here, even though I would probably say overall Toronto
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: has the better bullpen, but the rest scenario I think
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: favors New York a little bit, and the Yankees do it.
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: Max Freed pitching today, who was their best pitcher one
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: point nine two ERA, point nine to four whip. I mean,
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: based on his career of stats, he got to think
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: these numbers are gonna get a little bit worse at
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: some point. But he is good and I never really
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: want to bank on him not doing well, and he
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: is in form right now. The one point nine one
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: ERA and thirty four to five strike a walk ratio
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: in June against Toronto. He has good numbers as well,
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: in fifty nine career at bats a two ZHO three
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: average allowed for sixty seven ops. So there's no way
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: I would want to try to fade Freed in this
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: game here. As far as his splits, I skipped over that,
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: but I think his splits are yet they're like very insignificant.
• 6:55
  Speaker 2: He's good whether home or away.
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: He's up against Kevin Goussman, who has a four point
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: two to one ERA but a pretty good one point
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: zero six whip, so he is better than his ERA
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: would suggest. He is a little bit worse at home, though,
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: with a four point five to four homey ra.
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: He was having a bad month of June.
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: He had a five point four to six the r
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: in June, but then his final start in June eight
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: in two hit shutout with six strikeouts one walk against Cleveland,
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: so that might indicate maybe he's coming back into form.
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: But that is just one start against a bad offense,
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: so it could mean not that much, and it could
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: mean he is gonna get bombed by the Yankees here,
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: because the Yankees are pretty good and they did hit
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: him pretty well in April when he faced We gave
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: up six runs against the Yankees in two and two
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: thirds that time and walked five guys, so that is
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: not a good sign. Goussman career against the Yankees one
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: hundred and eighty six at bats.
• 7:50
  Speaker 2: They've seen a lot of him.
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: He's helding to a two forty seven average, which is
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: pretty good, but an eight to fourteen ops. A lot
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: of home runs have been hit against him. Aaron Judge
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: forty we're a team for forty one with six home
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: runs and nine walks against that Gousmanlough he has also
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: struck him out eighteen times, so Judge is basically he's
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: very hit or miss against him. A judge does well
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: against some multiple Yankees hitters do pretty well against Gussman.
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: So I would not want to bank on Goussman against
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: Freed here. Probably the Yankees are the side you want
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: to look towards here. They have the better starting pitcher,
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: they have the better bullpen and the better offense, or
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: not the better bullpen, but the better bullpen rest situation.
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: But the Yankees are very.
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: Public, and that's the problem here, is that public is
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: always gonna be on the Yankees, and also you're gonna
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: always lay too much of a price on the Yankees.
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: And I think that's why I was seeing this line
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: move from minus one sixty five to minus one fifty six.
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: I think it's more just professional betters are basically just saying, well,
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: Goussman is not that bad of a pitcher, and this
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: line is just too much to be laying on the
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: Yankees on the road ninety three percent of tickets, ninety
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: three percent of the cash. So I don't want to
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: put money on it. I will not get that out
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: as a play. It's just I don't see any value
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: in playing the Yankees here. But I do think that
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: the Yankees probably will win this game, and if you
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: do want to bet on the Yankees, probably you would
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: want to be looking towards like either going Yankees over
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: their team total or going with like Yankees run line
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: maybe or something like that if you wanted to actually
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: do this. I do think they have the matchup edge
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: throughout this game though pretty much, and the total is
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: down from eight to seven and a half now money
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: coming in in the under fifty eight percent of tickets
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: eight and nine percent of the cash on the under,
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: which makes sense from the Freed perspective, maybe not so
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: from the Goussman perspective.
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: So again that does mean that the Yankees a team
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: total is.
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: Probably lower than maybe what you would expect, so might
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: be worth taking a shot on the Yankees team total
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: over San Diego at Philadelphia. Philadelphia shut them out for
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: nothing yesterday a nice start from Wheeler. I think Wheeler
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: got them eight innings yesterday. So Philadelphia. Their bullpen is
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: in decent rest shape here. They have been pitching a
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: little bit better as of late, where San Diego has
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: been overly working their bullpen recently, their bullpend I think
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: has gotten a little bit worse. Even though generally, I
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: would say San Diego does have the better bullpen. I
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: don't mind how the Philadelphia bullpen sets up in this game. Philadelphia. Again,
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: they did get the win yesterday, so San Diego might
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: be a little bit pissed because a lot of times
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: when a team got shut out in their previous game,
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: they will come to play in the next game. But
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: looking at the starting pitching matchup, Nick Pavetta pitching for
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: the Padres three point three six ERA one point zero
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: three whip.
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: He's having a good season.
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: He's been significantly worse on the road though, a four
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: point five ROADYRA with an ERA two runs higher than
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: it is at home. He is coming off of a
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: good start at home against a bad Washington offense, though,
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: and at home where he pitches better. He had ten strikeouts,
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: no walks, and a seven inning shutout against Washington.
• 10:53
  Speaker 2: Very good outing.
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: So does that mean Paveta is bouncing back because he
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: had a bad June Otherwise, four point seven to one
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: in the month of June not great, but it does
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: mean at least in his last start, it might indicate
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: that he's starting to come back in a form. But
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: just like I said with Gaussman, you have that one
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: good start. I don't know if there's that much that
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: we can really take away from that, especially when it
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: was against a bad offense. And now Paveta is stepping
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: back up in class facing a really good offense, and
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: his numbers against Philadelphia are not very good. And in
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: sixty nine at bats, nineteen to thirteen, strike out walk
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: ratio two seventy five average, allowed nine to eighty four
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: oh ps. This Philly team has hit Paveta pretty well.
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: He's going up against Christopher Sanchez, who is pitching well
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: this year. Two point seven to ninety IRA, one point
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: one to six whip. Sanchez a little bit worse at
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: home though, with a three point two to four ERA,
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: but that's still good. Sanchez is also he is in
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: really good form right now. He had a much better
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: month than Paveta did. Granted he didn't face very good
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: offenses in June, but even so, he had a thirty
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: three to six strike out walk ratio, eleven strikeouts and
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: no walks in his last outing at Houston, allowing one
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: run in six innings. Houston, I mean they're a good team.
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: I mean their offense isn't terrific, but it is a
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: pretty good team. So that's an impressive start from Sanchez.
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: One point eighty five ERA in the month of June.
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: So I think Sanchez is the pitcher that's in the
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: significantly better form out of the two of these starters.
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: And against San Diego, he has good numbers in his
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: career forty three at bats, thirteen to one, strike a
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: walk ratio two PHO nine batting average five ninety nine ops.
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: So Sanchez, I think you gotta lean towards him and
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: towards Philly in this game. The problem is the market
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: seems to be very much disagreeing with that, so I
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: will not recommend it as a play, but I was
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: thinking about it. It was on my short it's the
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia side here, either run line or money line.
• 12:47
  Speaker 2: You might want to do one of those things.
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: You split a half on the minus one and a
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: half run line, half on the money line, or you
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: could go with the minus one run line, because I
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: do favor of Philadelphia in this game, but the line's
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: down for minus one seventy five one fifty eight Philadelphia. Again,
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: he's sixty one percent of tickets and only fifty two
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash, So the public, they still like Philadelphia.
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: I mean Philadelphia has a good offense. I've been playing
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: well recently. San Diego has kind of tailed off quite
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: a bit, But it would be Philadelphia or Pass for
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: me in this game. Man, I don't agree with the
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: market read here. San Diego has been terrible on the road,
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: by the way, They're five games below five hundred on
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: the road or well twenty and twenty five, whereas Phillies
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: are twenty seven and fourteen at home. So you're looking
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: at a team that's good at home against a team
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: that's bad on the road as well. So again, I
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: think Philly has pretty much all the advantages in that game,
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: except that their bullpend technically, like on the season, isn't
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: as good Royal as you have four hits last night
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: and my understill didn't hit in that game, Zach, Like,
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: what's going on here? The Royals had to put up
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: that extra run to ruin it, and walk I had
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: to have one of his worst starts of the season. David,
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: what's up man? Thanks for hanging out. Yeah, no, I
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: don't think I would agree with that. The Royals, Dude,
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: the Royals can't hit it at all, man, I mean
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: Red Sox at least Red Sox are having some fun. Man,
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: did you see the game last night? Will you're a
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: bray you? For? The Red Sox did something it's only
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: been done I think four times ever in Major League
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: Baseball history and hadn't been done since nineteen fifty eight.
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: The last time anybody did this was Roger Maris, who
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: was the only really famous person on the list I think,
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: did this in nineteen fifty eight. What will your or
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: bray you did yesterday? He had an inside the park
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: home run and a Grand Slam separately in the same game.
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: That's crazy, dude. It might never happen again. I mean,
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: if it does, maybe it'll be like five decades from now.
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: So that's like a It's like Haley's comment or something
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: like that. Man, that's something that you will only witness
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: once ever. Oh, I know the Red Sox suck. They're
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: pitching is terrible, but they have a lot of young,
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: exciting hitters that make some fun to watch, whereas Kansas
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: City has no no hitting at all. So yeah, I mean,
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: I think the Red Sox are a more fun team
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: to watch, man. I think there's probably no debate on that.
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: And again, like I said last night, will you or
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: bray you?
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: That was crazy.
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: Jared Duran's got thirty triples and thirty home runs in
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: his first five hundred or fewer than a first five
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: hundred games with the Red Sox, which that had only
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: been done three other times in team history, I believe,
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: or maybe yeah, I think it was three times. It
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: was Babe Ruth, Jim Rice, and Ted Williams are the
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: only other players to do it. So Jared Duran in
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: a very good company as far as that speed power
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: combo is concerned.
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: All Right, Minnesota at Miami.
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna give it out a play on this and
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: I actually like the total and the side in this game,
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: but I'm going with the total under seven and a
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: half Minnesota Miami. I mean, first of all, you have
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: both teams not with very good offenses. You also have
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: I know, Minnesota's bullpen has been struggling, Miami's bullpen's not
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: very good. But because both bullpen's are rested, neither team
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: played yesterday, I think that helps with the under. You
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: know me, I like to go with unders a lot
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: of times. I'm looking for unders in interleague games. So
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: we have a lot of interleague games today because the
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: hitters are less familiar with the pitchers a lot of times,
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: and in these games where you start a new series
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: and the teams had the day off yesterday, that can
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: kind of like hurt the hitting timing a little, the
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: hitters timing a little bit, and it can rest the bullpens.
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: So I like when that happens as far as setting
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: it up for an under That's where I'm looking here,
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: and obviously I'm gonna be looking at the starting pitching
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: matchup here. Miami is also in a bad spot. They're
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: a bad team in a bad spot. They just went
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: out to the Pacific Coast, swept the Giants, and then
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: they swept Arizona. They've won seven games in a row somehow,
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: So maybe I'm wrong that Miami is gonna be trying
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: to deal at the trade deadline. But I still don't
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: think Miami thinks that they're gonna make the playoffs or
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: anything like that. I mean, they're still too far behind, man, Miami.
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: They're returning home from a road trip. When you have
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: a bad team returning on from a road trip, they
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: get into this distraction spot a lot of times, the
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: distractions a little bit exacerbated for that bad team. So
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: I do think Miami is in a bad spot, so
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: I'm also leaning Minnesota in this game. In Minnesota, I
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: think they're gonna be a little bit pissed right now, man.
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: I mean, they got pretty much blasted by Detroit. They
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: are coming off a Sunday night game, which is what
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: It gives me a little bit of hesitation on wanting
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: to recommend the Minnesota side here. Coming off a big
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: Sunday night game against Detroit that could still kind of
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: hang you over a little bit. So instead of going
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: with the Minnesota side, I am going with the total here.
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: But Minnesota could be a little bit pissed, man, And
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: they're continuing a road trip and just getting out of Detroit,
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: forget about that. If they were starting a road trip,
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: I might think it's a little bit of a better
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: spot for Minnesota because when you start a road trip
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: you tend to be really focused. But again, Minnesota coming
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: off that big Sunday night game, facing Taric school ball
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: in that game as well, cooping them in a little
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: bit of a hangover spot as well, and I think
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: that might affect the hitting as well, and neither team
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: hits very well anyway, I said so I'm liking how
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: this shapes up for an under here. Looking at the
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: starting pitching. Joe Ryan pitching from Minnesota, he's probably their
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: best starter. I don't even know what happened to Pablo Lopez.
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: I haven't seen him in a while.
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: Has he hurt? I don't know.
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: But Joe Ryan two point eight six ERA point eight
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: to nine whip having a really good season. His home
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: road splits are almost the same, so there's no real
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: difference there.
• 18:23
  Speaker 2: He's in form right now.
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: The three point four to nine ERA thirty two to
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: eleven strike out walker rationio in the month of June,
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: so he did walk too many batters, but in his
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: last four starts he didn't a lot more than three
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: earned runs against anybody. He allowed four earned runs against
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: the A's in June in that really difficult stadium to
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: pitch in, so I'll give him a little bit.
• 18:42
  Speaker 2: Of a pass for that.
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: That's a very hitter friendly park. And he's only allowed
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: four or more on runs twice otherwise during the entire season,
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: and those games are both really early in April. So
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: Joe Ryan has been good pretty much all year. I
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: don't think I have to really belabor that, but in
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: his most recent starting a six inning shutout against Seattle
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: with eight strikeouts and no walks, three hits allowed, so
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: he had a really clean sheet in that game. It
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: didn't walk anybody, so that's a good sign. I think Ryan,
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: we could say he's in good form right now and
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: he's stepping down in class to face a bad Miami offense, who,
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: by the way, somehow have never.
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: Faced Joe Ryan before.
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: I don't know how that's possible with Ryan having been
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: in the league for a while though I know he's
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: been in the AL, but still Miami has no hitters
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: that have ever seen Joe Ryan. So I think that
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: helps Ryan as well. When you have a hitting when
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: you have a lineup that's unfamiliar with you, you tend.
• 19:35
  Speaker 2: To do pretty well against that lineup.
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: Man the first couple of times they have to face you,
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: they have to like adjust to you. So I think
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: Ryan has an extra edge as far as that's concerned.
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: He's going up against Edward Cabrera, who has a three
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: point seven to eighty RA which is good. One point
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: three to seven whip is not good. Cabrera definitely gets
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: a little bit too wild at times of a Cabrera
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: I mean, his home road splits aren't very significant either.
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: Cabrera hasn't been as b bad this month though, although
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: again he's walking too many guys. So what am I
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: even saying is a twenty one to ten strike a
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: walk ratio in fourth starts in June two point eight
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: ninety ra. Yeah, he's been walking too many guys, but
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: he allowed two or fewer earned runs in every start
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: in June, and he allowed more than two once when
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: he allowed three runs against the Cubs. Going all the
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: way back to the start of May, Cabrera has been
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: consistently not allowing runs, so I think that's good. He
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: is a good he's a hard thrower, man, he's a
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: good strikeout pitcher, and up against Minnesota, he's held them down, man,
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: when he's facing them in the past. They have twenty
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: six at bats against them him a one ninety two
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: average and five ninety six ops allowed. So Cabrera has
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: done well against this Minnesota offense. So I'm gonna go
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: under in this game. The totals low for reason, man,
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: The oddsmakers are kind of telling you something. It's dropped
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: a little bit from eight to seven pretty much, or
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: seven and a half excuse me. You want to get
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: it under the seven and a half if you can.
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: Seven is a key number in baseball. As I keep saying,
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: it's that run that breaks the three to three tie.
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: Money is coming into Minnesota as well, up for minus
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: one thirty five to minus one forty six, expecting that
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: Miami is gonna be in that like distraction spot coming
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: back home. Sixty five percent of tickets eighty three percent
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: of the cash on the Minnesota side. So I don't
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: disagree with Minnesota either. I just prefer the total here.
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: Under the total, we'll go with it. If you want
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: to go under first five innings on, just go with
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: the starting pitching.
• 21:28
  Speaker 2: I think that's okay as well. You'll get it under probably.
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: I think there are under fours out there right now
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: for first five, so that's not really that bad either.
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis at Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh just swept the Mets. Oh
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: and they beat Saint Louis yesterday and shut them out
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: seven and nothing. So Pittsburgh, this is really really ridiculous.
• 21:48
  Speaker 2: Man.
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh has won four games in a row and Paul
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: Skens did not start any of those games, and the
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: start the game before those four wins. Paul Skeens started
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: in Pittsburgh, lost the game, and now Paul Skeans is
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: pitching today, So it's crazy.
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: Does that mean Pittsburgh is gonna lose?
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: Are they gonna have a four game win streak without
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: Paul Skins involved and have that book ended by two
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: losses with Skins on the mon I mean it could happen.
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis probably not happy about losing seven to nothing yesterday.
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: They got Andre Pilante on the mounds. Saint Louis does
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: four point four to three ERA, one point three to
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: five WHIP. Those are not good numbers. Home roads splits
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: are not very significant. He has been limiting the damage though.
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: In his last four starts he's allowed three or fewer
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: earned runs on the month of June eighteen to six
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: strikeout walk ratio. He had one really bad start against
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: Kansas City four point nine to one ERA in the
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: month of June, but he was starting to come back
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: into form a little bit. So he's not really pitching
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: his worst right now, and he just faced the Cubs
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: man and now he's stepping down in class to face Pittsburgh.
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: Polonte has done pretty well against Pittsburgh in the past.
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: I mean, their offense is not good. Sixty three at
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: bats against some one ninety average six h nine ops
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: because he has allowed two of home runs to Brian Reynolds,
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: and he has a fifteen to nine strike out walk
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: ratio to that is too many walks. But overall, Polante
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: has not been bad against Pittsburgh. He is going up
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: against Paul Skeans, though, who is obviously the better of
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: the two two point one two ERA point nine to
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: one whip. Skeens has been a little bit worse at
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: home though, two point five six e RA at home,
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: which is still not bad. He's coming off his worst
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: start of the season, where you give up four runs
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: in four innings pitch and all four runs came in
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: one inning. So other than that, he was still pitching
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: pretty well. I mean overall, obviously he's pitching well, but
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: his walk numbers have gone up, as he's walked on
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: nine guys in his last three outings, which isn't really
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: that great with eighteen strikeouts to go along with that
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: as well, but still.
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: Nine walks again, not that great.
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: Two point zero five VRA thirty three to eleven striggle
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: walk ration in June not that bad though, And against
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis he has good numbers. In ninety two at bats,
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: they've seen a lot of him, but he has twenty strikeouts,
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: five walks again some two seventeen average five sixty two ops.
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: So Skeens has done well against them. Pittsburgh is favored,
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: and I do think you're probably only too much of
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: a price Man, because you're laying its attacks for Paul
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: skans Man, and Paul skans Is on the mound. The
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: line's gonna shift probably too much. Uh So, maybe there's
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: some valiant fading schemes. The line has gotten down for
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: mix one seventy to minus one fifty nine, sixty four
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash though on Pittsburgh it looks like
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: according to these numbers, and sixty percent of the tickets
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: on Saint Louis. So it looks like Saint Louis is
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: still the public side here because they do have the
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: better record, although the public you would think, wouldn't really
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: want to fade Paul skans but it does look like
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: the public is against him and the cash is coming
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: in on Pittsburgh. But because this is a team sport,
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: still Man and Saint Louis is better as a team
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: than Pittsburgh is. Maybe Pittsburgh should not be favored by
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: this much, and looking at the pitching matchup, it seems
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: like an under could be worth a look, as the
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: total came out at seven, which is very low, but
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: of course you have to adjust for Paull schemes being
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: in there. Maybe the total is over adjusted because money
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: has come in on the over and it's driven it
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: up to seven with heavy juice on the over, sixty
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: eight percent of the ticket seventy one percent of cash
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: on the over. I'm not quite sure I would agree
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: with the over though in that game either, although neither
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: bullpen is very good, so you have to worry about
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: the bullpens if you want to go under. I mean,
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: maybe a first five inning under could make sense in
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: that game. I mean, it's not a game that I
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: consider to be playable though, So those are my thoughts
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: on that.
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: Detroit is at Washington.
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: Washington is returning over from a road trip, but they
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: went to the Pacific Coast for a long road trip
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: to the Dodger, San Diego and then Anaheim, so they
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: were in southern California the whole time. But again when
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: you have a bad team like Washington returning home across
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: the country three time zones, a lot of times that
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: team is not going to do well in that game
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: coming back home again, it's a distracted spot, even though
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: they do have Detroit coming in, who was one of
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: the teams with one of the best records in baseball
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: and looks like a legit contender. So maybe because it
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: is Detroit, Washington won't be like totally distracted here, but
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: it is still a bad spot returning over from a
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: road trip. Man Detroit, they're starting a road trip. They
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: were just at home. They just beat Minnesota big divisional
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: series though, So how focused is Detroit gonna be starting
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: a road trip against Washington.
• 26:22
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: Usually when you start a road trip, you are focused,
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: But when it's a bad team like Washington, you're coming
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: off a big divisional series, maybe he won't.
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: Be as focused.
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: Jack Flaherty's pitching for Detroit, and he has not been
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: pitching well recently. Season numbers aren't even really that good
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: at this point four point eight ERA one point two
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: to three whip. He's been way worse on the road too,
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: with a six point one to seven Roady IRA. That
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: doesn't bode well. His numbers in June were not good
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: at all, six point eight forty RA and five starts.
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: Detroit lost his last three starts. He had a twenty
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: eight to sixteen strike out walk ratio.
• 26:58
  Speaker 2: That's pretty bad.
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: He pitched pretty poor early in June, man, especially in
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: his most recent three starts. He was not good, and
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: it was not like he was facing like the greatest
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: offenses Cincinnati, Tampa Bay Athletics. I mean, that's not good.
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: So I don't like how this sets up for Flarerty,
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: even though he does have good numbers against a pretty
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: weak Washington offense. They have sixty two at bats against
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: him fifteen to five stranggo walker ratio two ten average
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: six seventy two ops. So Flaherty does have good numbers
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: against Washington, but I think his really bad recent performance
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: I think kind of trumps that, so I would not
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: I don't like Flaherty coming into this game, man, But
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: I don't like Trevor Williams either for Washington. And of
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: course we know Washington has a terrible bullpen as well,
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: worse than Detroit's bullpen. Both teams were off yesterday, by
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: the way, so the bullpen's are rested at least, so
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: that's something to take into account. Williams five point six
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: five yard one point four to seven whip as home
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: road splits are very insignificant, but he has not been
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: good in the month of June eighteen to five strike
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: a walk ratio not too bad, but five point five
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: to five iran. He allowed way more than one hit
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: per inning, so he was getting hit hard. He was
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: not pitching well, so he's not a good form either.
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: Up against Detroit, I believe he does not have good numbers,
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: uh thirty one at bat actually does have good numbers
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: and thirty one at bats, but most of Detroit's lineup
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: hasn't even seen him before one four average allowed five
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: to eighty ops and some well, the majority of Detroit
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: hitters have actually never even faced Williams before. So that
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: might mean Williams might have a little bit of an
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: edge just because of the unfamiliarity aspect of it, and
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: Detroit is probably favored by too much, man. I mean,
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: they've gone down actually for minus one fifty five to
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: minus one forty nine as a road favorite, but I'm
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: not sure they should be favored by that much.
• 28:45
  Speaker 2: With flowerty on them mount on the way.
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: He's been pitching recently fifty four percent of the tickets
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: eighty nine percent of the cash on Detroit, So the
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: money looks like the cash percentage is coming in on Detroit.
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: I think you're laying too much of a price for Detroit.
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: On the road, thetal has gone up from nine to
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: nine and a half, seventy percent ticket, seventy four percent
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: of the cash. That might be more of the way
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: to lean here, though we do have rested bullpens. Washington's
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: bullpend isn't good. Both pitchers are pitching poorly right now,
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: so I could see that game being more of a
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: high scoring game, and the oddsmakers put that out at
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: nine for a reason that total, thinking it probably will
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: be a higher scoring game. A's are at Tampa Bay
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: A's Rays, which was one of the games I got
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: completely raw on yesterday.
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: Terrible, terrible game.
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: Well, it was six to four because both bullpens did
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: their jobs yesterday. The starting pitchers were way worse than
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: I thought they would be, so both teams had to
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: use a lot of their bullpends yesterday. So the bullpenz
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: situation not very good coming into this game. Springs is
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: pitching for the A's here four point three oeer, one
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: point two to four WHIP, not great numbers.
• 29:48
  Speaker 2: He's been a bit.
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: Better on the road getting out of that horrible Triple
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: A Stadium. The A's playing three point nine to eighty
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: RRA on the road. Not too bad, but I tried
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: taking a shot with the A's the last time out.
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: Springs didn't pitch that bad, but the A's gotten him
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: no run support behind him, and the A's lost pretty
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: badly in that game. Their bullpen was terrible, so that
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: is something to keep in mind. The A's bullpen is
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: a liability constantly. They're maybe the worst bullpen in all
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: of baseball. Springs against the Rays, they're zero for ad
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: off in lifetime, although they have two walks no strikeouts.
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: But he's been pretty good against the Rays in a
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: small sample size, and the Rays do not have a
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: whole lot of familiarity with him. He's going up against
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: Shane Boz, who is a roller coaster. It's like he
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: either pitches really well or he sucks, and there's almost
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: no in between. Four point three to seventy RA this
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: year one point two to six WHIP. Boz has been
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: worse at home though, five point seventy RA and talking
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: about the A's not up this game not being in
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: that A's stadium, but it is in this UH spring
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: training stadium that Tampa plays in right now, Steinberner Fields,
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: so it is also a hitter friendly ballpark, so that might.
• 30:54
  Speaker 2: Not help Springs.
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: Where Springs has been a little bit worse at the
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: A's stadium, he might not do well in this stage
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: him either, even though it doesn't mean at least he's
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: used to pitching in a stadium like this. Boz has
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: given up a lot of home runs Man fourteen, and
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: it hasn't even mattered home or away. He's given up
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: a lot either way. Boz is coming out of a
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: really good start against Kansas City, although they were a
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: terrible offense, eight shutout innings, three hits, a looted, nine strikeouts,
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: one walk, excellent start for Boz. Prior to that, he
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: was a little bit shaking, although Tampa has actually won
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: seven straight starts of his and they won all five
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: of his starts in June. He had a thirty one
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: to thirteen strike a walk ratio, which is too many walks,
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: but a three point two to sixty IRA, so he
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: was pretty good in June. He is limiting the damage
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: at least, even though he's been too wild up against
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: the A's. They're one for eleven off him with a
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: walk and a strikeout. I mean, not a whole lot
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: to see there, but and no extra base hits. So
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: both pitcher's fairly unfamiliar to the opposing hitters. So the
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: way I would probably look at this, I don't want
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: anything to do with the bullpens. With the bullpen's being
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: used yesterday, the A's bullpen being terrible, I'd be looking
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: to a first five inning under in this game, probably
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: because both starting pitchers had that unfamiliarity going for them,
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: and they're both pitching okay recently even though they're they're
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: both pitchers that could do bad in any given start though,
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: so it does worry me a little bit. Total's gone
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: up a little bit from eight and a half to
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: eight and a half with juice on the over, but
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: I think first five inning under might be the way
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: to look. And you definitely don't want anything to do
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: with with the bullpens if you go under. Cincinnati at
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: Boston Red Sox got the win yesterday thirteen to six.
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: Both bullpens saw some usage yesterday, especially Cincinnati because Burns
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: like basically couldn't do anything in the game, which is
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: crazy because I think Burns is a very good young pitcher.
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: Krashet actually didn't have the greatest start, but he was
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: good enough, very high scoring game yesterday. Coming into this game,
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: we have Brady Singer on the mound for Cincinnati. By
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: the way, I don't think either bullpen is that good
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: here either. Singer as a four point three to one
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: ERA one point three to three whip not great numbers.
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: He's been a little bit worse on the road four
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: point five seventy RA on the road, surprising because Cincinnati
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: has a hitter at a friendly ballpark. But Fenway also
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: has won on the month of June three point six
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: to seventy RA for Singer, but he had twenty seven
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: strike ups in thirteen walks a Springer Springer, excuse me,
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: not Springer or springs Singer, excuse me. Singer was not singing. Really,
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: he walked too many guys in the month of June. Man,
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: so that does worry me a little bit. And the
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: Red Sox have done okay against him in the past
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: forty one at bats ten to one strike a walk ratio,
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: but two ninety three average seven to twenty four ohps.
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: The Red Sox hitters have fairly good numbers against Singer,
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: and he's going up against Dick Fits for the Red
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: Sox four point six to eighty RA one point two
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: eight whip.
• 33:44
  Speaker 2: Still does not have a win on the season.
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: However, many starts he's man, I don't even know, seven
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: starts something like that.
• 33:52
  Speaker 2: Fits. He hasn't been good man.
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: He had two bad starts against Anaheim, but maybe he
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: just doesn't do well against Anaheim.
• 33:59
  Speaker 2: I don't know. But his most recent start he did
• 34:01
  Speaker 2: a little bit better. Excuse me.
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: He went four innings his most recent start against Anaheim
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: six to one strike a walk raceio. He did a
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: little bit better, but he gave up two home runs.
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: So the home run balls really hurt Fits. Recently, he
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: gave up five home runs in his last five innings
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: in those two starts and gave up seven runs. He's
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: not pitching well right now, needless to say, despite the
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: six to two strike a walk ratio, so I don't
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: trust Fits right now. The Red Sox have lost every
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: single game he's appeared, and which I think we're all starts.
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati has never seen him before, so maybe that's a
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: little bit of an edge to fits, but he's had
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: that edge throughout the season and it hasn't really helped. Although,
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: granted is his numbers against Anaheim, those starts against Anaheim
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: are way worse than his other starts. So maybe he'll
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: do a little bit better in this game, but I
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: don't want to bank on it. He's been really bad
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: at home ten point twenty nine Homie are alough. Granted
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: it was mostly because of that one inning awful performance
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: against the Anaheim Angels where he gave up a three
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: home runs. So again, Anaheim really doing a lot of
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: damage there. So how do we want to approach this game? Well,
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna recommend anything on this. It looks like
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati is public though, is sixty eight percent of tickets
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: only sixty six percent of the cash. And by the way,
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: it's dangerous to market read like this or early in
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: the morning for some of these evening baseball games, because
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: the market could shift quite a bit. And what I
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: saw earlier this morning, I saw the cash percentage on
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati and the ticket percentage on Boston. But now we
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: see sixty eight percent of tickets on the Red Sox
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: and sixty six percent of the cash excuse sixty eight
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets on the Reds and sixty six percent
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: of the cash on the Reds with the Red Sox
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: sitting in a minus one fifteen favorite, so the market
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: read is basically saying Cincinnati's public and that you should
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: look towards the Red Sox side. Personally, I will not
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: be doing that, and the totals up from nine and
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: a half to ten, even though we have sixty percent
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: of tickets fifty eight percent of the cash on the
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: over there, so the less of the cash percentage on
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: the over.
• 36:00
  Speaker 2: The total is high for a reason.
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: Man probably expecting potentially another high scoring game here. I
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: think both starting pitchers a little bit untrustworthy, and I
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: don't trust the bullpends either, so.
• 36:12
  Speaker 2: An over might still makes sense in this game.
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: I would not want to play the Red Sox in
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: this game, either, though, even though Fits might have a
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: little bit of an edge, just because he's the unfamiliar
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: pitcher and the Red Sox have done fairly well against singers.
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: That might be the reason why the market read looks
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: like it is on the Red Sox. And by the way,
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: I forgot to mention yesterday, this is a Terry Frankcona
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: returning to the to Boston here is he is the
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: manager of the reds Now always like Frank COONa. I mean,
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: I think he's a good dude. I think he was
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: probably the best manager of the Red Sox ever had.
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: I wish they had him back. I think he's way
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: better than Alex Korra. I like Frank COONa a lot.
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: I mean, of course, everybody's gonna think that in Boston,
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: of course, because he was the guy that got the
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: Red Sox their first World Series in eighty six years
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: in his first year with the Red Sox as manager.
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: So but I believe if they won three World Series
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: in his tenure as well, so that's pretty good.
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: I forget.
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: I forget when he was gone. Maybe it was two
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: I don't know. Anyway, Yeah, shout out to Frankcona. Milwaukee
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: at the Mets. This is gonna be the other playing.
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna fade the public here too, and I'm gonna
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: go with Milwaukee money line here, and I'm gonna suck
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: it up and go with the worst bullpen here too.
• 37:19
  Speaker 2: With Milwaukee.
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: I know Milwaukee has the worst bullpend, but I think
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: they have a big starting pitching edge in this game,
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: even though it might not look like it on the surface.
• 37:27
  Speaker 2: I like the spot for Milwaukee.
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: I like the pitching matchup, and at least the bullpen's
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: are rested, man, so Milwaukee does have their best relievers available.
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: Both bullpens rested here. The Mets have been struggling recently, man,
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: I just think we can jump on this train and
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: maybe fade the Mets for a little bit longer because
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: they have not been playing well, even though I know
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: it's no longer Pride months, and maybe the Mets Pride celebration,
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: the fact they started playing really poorly after their awful
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: Pride celebration, maybe that'll end because it's a new month now.
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: But I'm gonna go the other I'm gonna bank on
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: Mets still struggling here. Their bullpen was struggling as part
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: of that too, even though yes, generally they do have
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: the better bullpen. Both offenses are good, but the Milwaukee
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: actually has a better offense on the road, so that's
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: one thing to consider, and Milwaukee does play better on
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: the road offensively. The Mets just got swept by Pittsburgh.
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: So I think the public is gonna look at that
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: and think, well, now they're back at home, they're embarrassed.
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: They're gonna turn it around and do a lot better, right,
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: But I'm not quite sure that it works that way.
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: I know it was a short road trip. They only
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: went to Pittsburgh one series road trip. It is still
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: a road trip return though. And the thing that I
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: like about the Mets, as far as the motivation is
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: concerned here, that kind of tips the scales on this one.
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: This is a playoff revenge scenario for Milwaukee. Man. The
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: reason why I like Milwaukee, I mean Milwaukee, they got
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: eliminated last year and the Mets are the team that
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: ended the Milwaukee season last year. So Milwaukee's gonna remember that, man.
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: So this is a and I think the Mets might
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: have swe wept them too. I don't even remember. I forget.
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: Maybe it was a five game series and the Mets
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: won two out of three or no, that doesn't even
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: make sense, right, was it?
• 39:09
  Speaker 2: Yeah? Wait? What?
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: Or yeah, it was a five game series and the
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: Mets won all three I think is what happened. Yeah, yeah,
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I'm my mind is all messed up
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: right now. But anyway, this is a revenge spot though.
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: I mean, the Mets are the team that ended Milwaukee
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: season last year. Met, so I think Milwaukee's gonna show
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: up here. This is the first time they're playing the
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: Mets since the Mets ended their season last year, so
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: I think it's a little bit extra motivation for the Mets.
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: I still think it's not a good spot for it's
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: a little bit extra motivation for Milwaukee. Why do I
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: keep saying the Mets. It's extra motivation from Milwaukee playing
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: against the Mets who ended their season. I apologize, man,
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: I'm just so out of it right now. The Mets,
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: I mean, they've been playing bad baseball, dude. They've won
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: three games going all the way back to I don't
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: know when this was, this series against Washington a long
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: long time ago. They have not been playing well. So
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: we're gonna jump on that train as well here Milwaukee.
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: As Freddy Peralta pitching, he's their best starter or two
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: point nine ERA one point one to three whip. Yeah,
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: he is worse on the road, so we do have
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: to worry about that a little bit. Four point oh
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: two ERA on the road, so he definitely does pitch
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: better at home, but I still think we could jump
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: in on him here.
• 40:18
  Speaker 2: He had a good month of June.
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: His team won his last three starts three point two
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: to one ERA in the month of June thirty two
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: to eight strike out walk ratios. He was still pitching well.
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: He had command his last out, he had eight strikeouts,
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: no walks, and usually the walks are a little bit
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: of an issue with Paralta. He dominated. I think I
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: gave out Milwaukee as a play in that game against Pittsburgh,
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: and they were able to win that game and cover
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: the run line pretty easily. And Paralta was coming off
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: playing the Cubs, which is a much bigger start, and
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: he pitched fairly well in that game too, So I
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: like how this sets up. Paralta's been pitching pretty well
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: and even though he's facing a potent Mets offense, this
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: Mets offense has been struggling in Paralta has good numbers
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: against them, sixty three at bats. He's onto a one
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: forty three average, although a six ZHO four oh ps
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: is a little bit higher than you expect uh with
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: a one forty three average because he does have a
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: sixteen to ten strike a walk ratio against them and
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: allow three home runs against him. But really, the walks
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: are kind of the issue there again with Perrault. He's
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: got to keep those walks and check but I think
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: he can do it, and he's going up against a
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: guy who has problems with walks himself, Clay Holmes. His
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: numbers look good on the season, man, So the public
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: is gonna look at this and probably want to take
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: the Mets to bounce back because the Mets have the
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: better record. Excuse men, there's generally the more public team,
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: the bigger market. Two point nine to seven ERA for homes,
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: one point two to four WHIP, so his numbers look
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: pretty good on the season. His WHIP a little bit
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: higher than i'd like. Home road splits are not that significant,
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: a little bit higher of an ERA at home.
• 41:50
  Speaker 2: Yes, I know the Mets have won.
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: Four of his last six games, but looking at his numbers,
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: I don't trust them. Man. He had a two point
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: nine to three ERA in them at the June. That's good,
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: but nineteen to twelve strikeout walk race shows really bad.
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: In his last two outings, I know they were both
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: against the Braves, but I mean he was stepping up
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: in class to face the Braves because the previous starts
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: he'd faced the White Sox Colorado twice, the Rays, I mean,
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: those are not great offenses. He stepped up in class
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: to face Atlanta and didn't do well in two starts.
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: He had seven strikeouts and ten walks against Atlanta.
• 42:24
  Speaker 2: So Holmes is not a good form right now.
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: He's walking way too many guys, so he's somehow was
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: not allowing a lot of damage, not allowing a lot
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: of runs, which I know has been the case all season.
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: He's allowed more than the three on runs twice all season.
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: I get that, but I think this could be a
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: struggle for him. Man, he's walking too many guys. At
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: some point, there's gonna be some homes regression here. Man.
• 42:47
  Speaker 2: Yeah, Milwaukee's not that familiar with him.
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: They've only seen him twelve times, so we are banking
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: on the more familiar starter here.
• 42:54
  Speaker 2: So that might be a little bit of an issue.
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: But still, Holmes hasn't been that great against Milwaukee, and
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: their offense is good. In twelve at bats, I understand
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: Yelich is the only hitter that has any hits off him,
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: but still they have a two to fifty average two
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: to two. Strang a walk right here in seven to
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: seventy four ops with a couple of doubles there from Yelich.
• 43:12
  Speaker 2: Both doubles and both walks are from him as well.
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I mean, I'm gonna bank on it and
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: go with Freddy Peralta here, man, go with the Milwaukee
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: the team that's playing a bit better. We do see
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: the line dropped for minus one thirty minus one eighteen
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: on the Mets, so some money line movement came in
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: against the Mets, although I do see fifty one percent
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: ticket sixty percent of the cash on the Mets now,
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: which worries me a little bit because I saw more
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: of a public ticket percentage earlier on the Mets with
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: the money coming in the other way. But it does
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: still look like the money line is kind of fading
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: the Mets here, and I still think the Mets are
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: a public even though they have been playing better, they
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: still have the slightly better record. One thing to worry
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: about is that the Brewers are only a five hundred
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: team on the road and the Mets are good at home.
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: But the Brewers they do hit well on the road,
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: So I'm gonna bank on im to go with Peralta
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: over Holmes there. Man, I think he is the better pitcher.
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: Hopefully we get some wins here.
• 44:06
  Speaker 2: Man.
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: Anaheim at Atlanta, Atlanta, I believe is just staying at home.
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: Both teams said yesterday off Atlanta did just have a
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: couple big series against the Mets and Philadelphia, so Atlanta
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: might be a little bit of a hangover spot after
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: some huge series. Anaheim is coming in flying across country though,
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: so Anaheim does have to travel though. Your first game
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: of a road trip usually our focus, So Anaheim might
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: be in a bit of more of a focused spot
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: here than Atlanta is coming up those big divisional games Anaheim.
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: Even though both bullpen's arrested, I don't trust either bullpen really.
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: Although Atlanta's is better than Anaheim's, Anaheim is a terrible bullpen,
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: so I don't trust Anheim's bullpen. I don't trust Tyler
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: Anderson either. Four point four to one ERA one point
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: three to seven Whip. His numbers are beginning worse and worse.
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: He's really bad on the road six point two six
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: roadyra So this does not.
• 44:58
  Speaker 2: Look good for Anderson.
• 44:59
  Speaker 1: He in the month of June he only was able
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: to go five or more in He's in two of
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: the five starts six point nine three eral though twenty
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: four to nine stroggle walk ratio isn't that bad, but
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: he still didn't pitch that well. In the month of June,
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: he is starting to struggle against the Atlanta Braves. Anderson
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: has fifty four at bats against him, and they have
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: six home runs against him in eight to six strigle
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: walk ratio. Albi's or Albiaz hits him really well four
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: for six with three home runs. He's a lot of
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: two ninety six average to the Braves as a whole
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: and oneenty twenty seven ops, so Anderson nothing looks good
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: for the Anderson side of this man. I would look
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: to fayan Anderson in this game. Fade Anaheim in this
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: game in some way if you're gonna play this game.
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: Fuentez is pitching for the Braves. He's only made two
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: career starts, but it's been a struggle for him. He's
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: really young, still twenty years old, so we'll see if
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: he does better as you know his career progresses. He
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: still has only walked one guy, but he's been extremely
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: hit able and eight and a third innings, four strikeouts,
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: a low strikeout, raised a lot, fourteen hits, ten or
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: in runs, and three home runs. So that's not good. Obviously,
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: ten point eighty IRA, one point eight whip. He struggled.
• 46:15
  Speaker 1: He did get through five innings against Miami, and then
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: he had a tougher task against the Mets and didn't
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: do well in that start. This is gonna be his
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: first home start, so maybe he'll do a little bit
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: better here. But well, he is up against Anaheim. I mean,
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: Anaheim is not that great in offense. They're not as
• 46:32
  Speaker 1: good as the Mets are. And of course Anaeim has
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: never seen him before. Although actually I forgot it looks
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: like maybe fuents is actually not pitching in this game.
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: I apologize, I totally forgot, because now we see Grant
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: Holmes is pitching, which I think is the reason why
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: Atlanta has gone all the way up from minus one
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: sixty five to minus one ninety. I think the money
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: line movement is not because money came in on Atlanta.
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: I think it was because Atlanta changed either starting pitcher
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: from fuent as two homes So I think that's the
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: reason why. That's why homes Page already up here, so
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: my apologies. Homes is probably pitching for the Braves here.
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: Three point seventy r a one point two to six whip,
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: so his numbers are decent this year. He's been better
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: at home three point eighty ra at home for Homes
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: last month, three point five one ERA in June, thirty
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: nine to fifteen strike out walk rate Shore, though his
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: walk rate was way too high. Holmes he's a hard thrower,
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: but he walks too many guys and Atlanta actually lost
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: four of his last five starts, although some of it
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: wasn't really his fault. Anaheim does not have a whole
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: lot of at bats against him. They have six at
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: bats against him, and Wade Junior is the only hitter
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: that has any hits off him. He has two hits
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: off him two for five. They have three strikeouts against
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: him as well, so very small sample size three thirty
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: three average, eight thirty three ops. But Holmes still pretty
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: unfamiliar to Anaheim, so I would probably give it Lanta
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: the advantage in this game, but again they are up
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: to minus one ninety.
• 48:01
  Speaker 2: We see sixty two percent of tickets.
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: Coming in on Anaheim, but seventy two percent of the
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: cash coming in on the other side on sixty two
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on Atlanta, sixty two percent of
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: the tickets on Atlanta. Why do I keep doing this?
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: I keep talking about the opponents instead of the team.
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: I mean, God, God, damn it. Man, Atlanta sixty two
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets on them, seventy two percent of the
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: cash on Anaheim. So the market read is saying the
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: money is coming in on Anaheim, probably thinking the line
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: is too high. And again, yes, it is kind of
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: a hangover spot for Atlanta. It is more of a
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: focus spot for Anaheim. But I don't think you'd trust
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: Anderson at all.
• 48:36
  Speaker 2: The total is pretty high at nine and a half,
• 48:38
  Speaker 2: So I think.
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: The way to probably look at this is to take
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: Atlanta to go over their team total, man, and just
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: take Atlanta to score off of Anderson and Anaheim's terrible bullpen.
• 48:49
  Speaker 1: Anderson not pitching well and his numbers against Atlanta are
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: not good, So that's probably the way I would go,
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: is to just not even factor in Atlanta's pitching at
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: all and just go with Atlanta to a score in
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: the game. Baltimore is at Texas. Texas lost ten to
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: six yesterday, so Baltimore getting some revenge there as Texas
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: had beaten Baltimore two out of three two series ago.
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: Baltimore showed up yesterday and beat Texas ten to six. Sothough,
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: it was a little bit weird because that was a
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: much lower scoring game earlier in the game and we
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: saw tons of runs scored an extra innings. So, man,
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: if you had the under in this game, that is awful, man,
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: because you had six runs scored in the first nine
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: innings and then the game wound up ten to six.
• 49:32
  Speaker 1: As you saw, what is that ten more runs were
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: scored in the Yeah, I can do math. Ten more
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: runs scored in the extra innings alone, and very efficient
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: run scoring. We only had twenty two hits total and
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: we saw sixteen runs scored. That's highly unlikely as well.
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: So if you had the under in this game, that
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: is a very tough luck loss.
• 49:53
  Speaker 2: There.
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: Just crazy what happened to the bullpens in the game
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: yesterday and the Orioles actually coming out on top and
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: that game is insane. After the Orioles bullpen blew it
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: after the Oriols had scored I mean, you score four
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: runs in the tenth inning, you're almost guaranteed to win
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: the game. And then Texas, even though their offense is
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: so bad, Baltimore's bullpen is so bad, they blew that
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: and then Baltimore was able to score what more and
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: win the game? Right, Yeah, Baltimore won ten to six.
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: Yeah that's just insane, dude. So yeah, whatever happened in
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: that game or what? Yeah, I don't even dude, I
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: don't even know what I'm saying.
• 50:27
  Speaker 2: What was it?
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: It was actually three runs in the first yeah, three
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: runs sorry in the tenth inning, and then four in
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: the eleventh. Sorry, that's what it was. But yeah, whatever,
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: Baltimore's bullpen is terrible. The ghost runner on second is terrible. Man,
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: if you have an under and it goes into extra innings,
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: the ghost runner is just a terrible thing. But yeah,
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: Baltimore's bullpen is terrible. Texas might be able to bounce
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: back here. And I do think Texas has the starting
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: pitching edge and the pitching edge in general here because
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: both bullpen's got used yesterday, So you gotta still lead
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: to Texas bullpen as having the edge here as far
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: as the bullpen's. Baltimore's bullpen is not good. Brandon Young
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: is gonna be pitching for Baltimore. He does not have
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: good numbers so far this year seven point one one
• 51:10
  Speaker 1: point nine to seven whip bad numbers. He's only made
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: three starts, hasn't made it past four and two thirds
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: innings in any of them. Has an eleven to nine
• 51:17
  Speaker 1: strike a walk ratio, which.
• 51:18
  Speaker 2: Is really bad.
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: And oh yeah, in his last out he faced Texas,
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: So any advantage you might have had where Texas was
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: very unfamiliar with him in Texas offense isn't that good.
• 51:27
  Speaker 2: He still didn't duwell.
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: He gave up four runs against them, So Texas did
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: well against him last.
• 51:32
  Speaker 2: Time, and they're now familiar with him, so that doesn't
• 51:35
  Speaker 2: look good for Young either.
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: On seventeen at Batsie allowed a two ninety four average them,
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: nine to twenty two ops and a lot of home
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: run to Josh Young, So Texas might be able to
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: hit him again here man because now they're more familiar
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: with Young. Uh, Brandon Young, not Josh Young or Young there.
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: So anyway, he looks bad for Brandon Young here. He's
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: up against the veteran Jacob de Grom, who's having a
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: really nice season.
• 51:59
  Speaker 2: Two point zero, very low point.
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: Eighty eight whip He's been even better at home with
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: a one point eight three ERA. Texas has won eight
• 52:10
  Speaker 1: of his last excuse nine of his last eleven starts,
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: and one of those losses was a good start against
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: the Yankees. So yeah, I mean de Grom has been very,
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: very excellent. He has not allowed more than more than
• 52:23
  Speaker 1: two in runs going all the way back to April eleventh,
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: in any start. He's been lights out pretty much in
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: June one point four to one ERA, thirty two to
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: six strikeout walk ratio. His team won every single one
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: of those games that he started. De gram is just
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: pitching really, really well right now. Against Baltimore. He has
• 52:40
  Speaker 1: dominant numbers as well in thirty six at bats, fifteen
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: to two strike at walk ratio, eighty three average, and
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: two ninety eight ohps with one home run allowed to Sanchez.
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: But de Grom has pretty much completely dominated Baltimore. So
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: I think you have to give the edge to Texas
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: in this game. Although the money looks like it's coming
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: in against them, the money lines up for my just
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: won seventy five and won seventy seven. Uh, Texas a
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: pretty big favorite here. Ninety three percent of tickets only
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: seventy eight percent of the cash. The cash percentage looks
• 53:10
  Speaker 1: like it's against Texas, and I don't get it. I
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: don't understand why. And the osmakers are telling you it's
• 53:16
  Speaker 1: a low scoring game as well. Total line at seven
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: and a half now down to seven eighty eight percent
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: of tickets on the over because of course everybody sees
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: yesterday's game, they're gonna want to go over on this game.
• 53:27
  Speaker 2: But I just don't.
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: I mean, I don't really see the under up making
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: sense that much in this game, even though de Grom
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: obviously is a very good pitcher. Eighty six percent of
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: tickets or eighty six percent of cash, excuse me, on
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: the over, so it looks like the over is public
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: with less than the money coming in on the over.
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: So the market read is saying Baltimore and under. I
• 53:48
  Speaker 1: think under first five innings, maybe just because you have
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: de Grom in there, but I wouldn't trust young man
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: with the way that you pitched last time out. De
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: Grom did did also just see Baltimore, by the way,
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: he might do a little bit worse this time out
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: because Baltimore just saw him, but he dominated them seven innings,
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: one hit, allout, seven strikeouts, no runs, two walks, so
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: he had a dominant performance there. I expect kind of
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: more of the same in this one, even though when
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: an offense is just seeing a pitcher, they usually do
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: better the next time out.
• 54:18
  Speaker 2: But I think that's gonna be more.
• 54:21
  Speaker 1: It's gonna have more of an effect on Young because
• 54:23
  Speaker 1: when it's a pitcher that a team has never seen
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: before and they see them once, that really helps them more.
• 54:28
  Speaker 1: I mean, everybody's seen de Graam at this point, so
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: that's it's gonna be a little bit less of a
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: factor for de Grom.
• 54:33
  Speaker 2: I think.
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: So I would be leaning to Texas in this game
• 54:37
  Speaker 1: in some way, maybe Baltimore to go under their team
• 54:41
  Speaker 1: total because everybody's you know, the money's coming in on
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: the under. Everybody saw a high scoring game yesterday, So
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: Baltimore under the team total might actually make the most
• 54:48
  Speaker 1: sense there. You have to worry about Texas bullpend not
• 54:51
  Speaker 1: being totally rested, but still that might be the way
• 54:54
  Speaker 1: to look there. Cleveland is at the Chicago Cubs. Cubs
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: are turning over from a road trip and they went
• 54:59
  Speaker 1: to Saint Louis and Houston, and they're facing a pretty
• 55:02
  Speaker 1: bad Cleveland team. So the Cubs might not be totally
• 55:05
  Speaker 1: focused here. Again, it's a return home spot, never a
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: great spot.
• 55:08
  Speaker 2: Really.
• 55:09
  Speaker 1: Cleveland coming off four straight losses at home, including getting
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: shut out three of those four games, so Cleveland might
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: be a very It might be very advantageous to Cleveland
• 55:20
  Speaker 1: to just go out on the road. Just forget about
• 55:22
  Speaker 1: that you've been playing horribly at home, you have a
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: day off, just break that losing momentum, get pissed, go.
• 55:28
  Speaker 2: On the road.
• 55:28
  Speaker 1: So the spot looks pretty decent for Cleveland, but I
• 55:31
  Speaker 1: do not like the starting pitching matchup for Cleveland here, Man,
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: and I don't really love Cleveland's bullpen either. I mean,
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: the Cubs bullpen has been a little bit better recently,
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: So the Cubs bullpen isn't really that bad as you
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: have two okay bullpens here. Gavin Williams is pitching for Cleveland.
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: Three point six eighty RA is good, but at one
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: point four to three whip is not. He's been basically
• 55:51
  Speaker 1: pretty much the same home and road, but his whip
• 55:54
  Speaker 1: indicates that he should be giving up a lot more runs.
• 55:58
  Speaker 2: Man, and the same thing.
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: In June and five Stars, he had a two point
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: five to seven ERA, but his team lost three of
• 56:05
  Speaker 1: those games because they can't score. And he had a
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: twenty to thirteen strike out walk ratio, which is awful.
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: I don't understand how you can walk that many guys,
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: not be a strikeout pitcher and get away with this
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: and not allow that many runs.
• 56:17
  Speaker 2: I don't get it.
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: He's just again, he's not giving up a lot of runs,
• 56:21
  Speaker 1: and it's because partially, I think it's because he's one
• 56:23
  Speaker 1: of those pictures that has like a pretty decently high
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: ground ball rate. So I think that's part of the
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: reason why some of these pictures can kind of escape
• 56:32
  Speaker 1: putting men on base if they induce a lot of
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: ground balls up against the Cubs, not a lot of
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: history here. The Cubs only have two hitters I've ever
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: seen him before, but they have hit four hundred often
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: with a one four oh ps. Bush has a home
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: run off him. So Williams in a very small sample size,
• 56:51
  Speaker 1: hasn't done well against the Cubs, even though the Cubs
• 56:53
  Speaker 1: are a bit unfamiliar with them. But I don't know
• 56:55
  Speaker 1: that's gonna help a guy like Williams man who's just
• 56:57
  Speaker 1: not that good. He's going up against Matthew Boy, which
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: is gonna be interesting because Boyd might be a little
• 57:03
  Speaker 1: bit pumped up.
• 57:03
  Speaker 2: As you can see here in this video here that
• 57:06
  Speaker 2: they have.
• 57:07
  Speaker 1: Boyd was on Cleveland last year and man, so Cleveland
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: is the team that got rid of him. So when
• 57:11
  Speaker 1: you have a starting pitcher like this who faces the
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: team that got rid of them for the first time
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: a lot of times, that pumps them up a.
• 57:18
  Speaker 2: Little bit further.
• 57:19
  Speaker 1: So I think from a motivational standpoint, Boyd might be
• 57:22
  Speaker 1: pretty excited to face the team that got rid of
• 57:24
  Speaker 1: him and be pretty excited to show them, you know,
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: what he can do. Although of course Cleveland is going
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: to be familiar with how he pitches. But even so,
• 57:31
  Speaker 1: they haven't really had to face him in a real
• 57:33
  Speaker 1: game environment. They haven't seen him in a while, and
• 57:35
  Speaker 1: you know, the Cubs might have changed some things related
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: to his dynamics. So I think, yeah, I think Boyd
• 57:42
  Speaker 1: might be pumped up for this. And he's pitching well
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: this year two point six' FIVE, era one point one.
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: Whip he's been pretty good at home two point four
• 57:50
  Speaker 1: to ONE era at home as. Well on the month
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: Of june he was quite good at one point seven
• 57:55
  Speaker 1: to EIGHTY r and five starts didn't a lot more
• 57:57
  Speaker 1: than two hour runs in any start WHEN uh at
• 58:00
  Speaker 1: least six innings and four of the five eighteen to
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: six strike a walk.
• 58:04
  Speaker 2: Ratio so he's in good form right. Now he's pitching
• 58:07
  Speaker 2: quite well Against.
• 58:10
  Speaker 1: Cleveland he does not have great, numbers though some of
• 58:12
  Speaker 1: the hitters have seen him. Before eighty six at, bats
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: nine to nine strike a walk, ratio five home runs
• 58:17
  Speaker 1: allowed of the three of them are To Jose ramirez
• 58:20
  Speaker 1: along with four of the, walks but still a two
• 58:22
  Speaker 1: seventy nine average eight to seventy one.
• 58:24
  Speaker 2: Ohps so that gives me a little bit of.
• 58:26
  Speaker 1: Pause of the situation with The cubs are turning over
• 58:29
  Speaker 1: from a road trip And boyd not having good numbers Against,
• 58:32
  Speaker 1: cleveland that gives me some. HESITATION a though the money
• 58:35
  Speaker 1: is coming in on The cubs up for minus one
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: thirty five to minus one seventy, eight fifty five percent,
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: tickets ninety one percent of the cash coming in on The,
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: cubs so the money is coming into The cubs. Generally,
• 58:47
  Speaker 1: YEAH i would, SAY i, YEAH i MEAN i agree
• 58:50
  Speaker 1: with that that market move there on The. CUBS i
• 58:52
  Speaker 1: MEAN i do think that the matchup And, boyd you,
• 58:55
  Speaker 1: know the situation For, BOYD i think DOES i think
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: that is kind of the determining factor, here BUT i
• 59:00
  Speaker 1: just don't want to do it because of the situation
• 59:02
  Speaker 1: And boyd's specific matchup Against, cleveland So i'll stay away from.
• 59:05
  Speaker 2: It but the money is coming in in The.
• 59:06
  Speaker 1: Cubs if you do like The, cubs they're PROBABLY i
• 59:09
  Speaker 1: would say you have to go with the run. Line but,
• 59:11
  Speaker 1: again you do a run line at, home you don't
• 59:13
  Speaker 1: get the last at bat in the ninth.
• 59:14
  Speaker 2: Inning so.
• 59:17
  Speaker 1: Take from all that what you. Will houston At colorado
• 59:20
  Speaker 1: neither of these teams played. Yesterday colorado's were turning home
• 59:23
  Speaker 1: from a one series road trip To, milwaukee so not
• 59:26
  Speaker 1: a long road. Trip But, COLORADO i, mean they're a bad.
• 59:28
  Speaker 1: Team But houston's coming in playing pretty.
• 59:31
  Speaker 2: Well.
• 59:31
  Speaker 1: Man they just Swept philadelphia and won a series against The,
• 59:34
  Speaker 1: cubs and they won a divisional series Against anaheim prior
• 59:38
  Speaker 1: to that, Too So houston probably riding a little bit,
• 59:41
  Speaker 1: high even though they are starting a road. Trip might
• 59:43
  Speaker 1: not be the greatest spot For. Houston could be a
• 59:45
  Speaker 1: little bit of a letdown spot here facing a bad
• 59:48
  Speaker 1: opponent Like. Colorado Colton gordon is pitching For, houston. Here
• 59:51
  Speaker 1: The houston obviously they have the better, team they have
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: the better. Bullpen houston is definitely the better. Team But Colton,
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: GORDON i mean he's gonna be a little bit of
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 1: a question mark in this, GAME i. Think, man he
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 1: has a three point nine to EIGHTY ra and one
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 1: point three whip is a bit. High he's been better
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 1: on the road three point five TWO. Era but the
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 1: problem is he's pitching In, courtsfield and he is very
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 1: much a fly ball. Pitcher and he's a lot eight
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 1: home runs this year and only forty to two thirds
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 1: innings eighty three fly balls, Allow so he's allowed a
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 1: lot of fly, balls AND i don't think that bodes
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 1: well for a game in course, field, Man so you
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: do not want to be a fly ball pitcher like
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 1: that in course.
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 2: Field SO i worry About gordon. Here even though overall
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 2: he hasn't pitching.
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 1: Well he had a good month Of june where his
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 1: team won three of his fourth starts two point one FOUR,
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 1: era eighteen to two striggle walker. Ratio so he was
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 1: pitching well In, june including Against, philadelphia and that's the
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 1: game he's coming off. Of houston has won six of
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 1: his eight starts and he has a thirty eight to
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 1: five Striggle walker race year this, season though he's allowed
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 1: too many hard hits man too many home runs and
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 1: forty eight hits in the forty two thirds, inning so
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 1: he's allowed too many.
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 2: Hits so there are some things to.
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 1: Worry about a little bit With Colton, gordon even Though
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 1: rockies have never seen him. Before we're gonna have two
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: pitchers that are completely unfamiliar to the opposing hitters. Here
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 1: As dollander is pitching For, colorado he's in his rookie,
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 1: season and then just kind of thrown him to The.
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 2: Wolves.
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 1: Man he has not been pitching. Well six point oh
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: SIXY ira one point four to three whip. Is THE
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 1: ira is worse at Cours field with an eight point
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 1: five to FOUR. Era that's not.
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 2: Good.
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 1: Uh in the month Of june five point SEVENTY ra
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: and eleven to nine strike out walk, ratios and he
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 1: was still struggling not pitching. Well so even Though dollander
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 1: is unfamiliar To, houston he's not pitching well, Either SO
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 1: i think Probably i'd be looking to maybe look towards
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 1: an over even though both offenses aren't that. Good the
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 1: total was out out at twelve because the oddsmakers are
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 1: realizing they have to line these totals really high At,
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 1: colorado even more so than. Usual, uh it's dropped to
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 1: eleven with juice on the, over seventy six percent tickets
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 1: in the, over only fifty eight percent of the cash
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 1: on the. Over BUT i, MEAN i think it over
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 1: might be worth a look, here just BECAUSE i don't
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 1: love how either pitcher shapes up in the. Game seventy
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 1: four percent of, tickets only seventy percent of the cash On.
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 2: Houston So houston's.
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 1: Very public and they're down for my one seventy five
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 1: to minus one, Fifty so a pretty strong market read
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 1: on Taking colorado at the underdog, Price, Again i'm not
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 1: sure about. That Although gordon definitely a fly ball, pitcher
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 1: it might not play well in this. Field LIKE i,
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 1: said but one thing you do have to worry about
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 1: if you do play the over is that you have
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 1: offenses that are not that, good And houston's bullpen is pretty,
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 1: good so that is something to be concerned about a little.
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 1: Bit so it's not a GAME i would want to
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 1: get involved. In Kansas city At. Seattle seattle won yesterday
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: unfortunately six to, two busting my under in that. Game
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: both bullpens didn't see a lot of usage, yesterday so
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 1: we do have two pretty decent bullpens coming into this.
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 2: One but the starting pitching is not that.
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 1: Decent Here lorenz in his pitcher For Kansas, city he
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 1: hasn't been very. Good four point nine to WIN, era
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: one point three to EIGHT. Whip he's been worse on
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 1: the road five point six EIGHTY r even THOUGH i
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 1: Know seattle is a much more pitcher friendly, park But
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 1: lorenzen generally has been bad on the, road and he's
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 1: a lot of eleven home runs on the road of.
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 1: Them maybe that's less of a concern in this, park
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 1: but still he's not pitching. Well he didn't pitch well
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 1: In june in five, starts even though his team somehow
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 1: won to three of those. Five somehow he was able
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 1: to get run support behind, him, shockingly Because Kansas city can't,
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 1: hit SO i don't know How lorenzo gets that much
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 1: run support behind. Him he has six point three ONE
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 1: era In june twenty one to nine straggle walk ratio not.
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 1: Good his numbers are just not good. Overall gave up
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 1: six home runs In june SO i don't Trust lorenzen at.
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 1: All his numbers aren't great Against seattle. Either in thirty
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 1: four at, bats he's allowed three home runs to three different.
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 1: Hitters of Course raleigh is one of them seven to.
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 1: Seven straggle walk ratio two sixty five average allowed nine
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 1: to forty nine oh. Ps SO i Think lorenzen is
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 1: gonna continue to struggle. Here he's going up Against Emerson,
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 1: hancock who has not been pitching well either for The
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 1: mariners five point THREE era at one point four to.
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 1: WHIP i, mean his name just makes him sound like, he's,
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: LIKE i don't, know in a law firm or. Something
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 1: or maybe he's a transcendentalist literally like transcendentalist. WRITER i
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 1: don't even get. It, man terrible. Name or maybe he's
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 1: a a signer of The declaration Of independence or.
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 2: SOMETHING i don't.
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 1: Know he's a founding father. Man what his confounding is
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 1: the fact that HIS era is actually even worse than
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: this pitcher friendly park At home five point seven to
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 1: six E ra at. Home hancock has not been pitching
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 1: well this.
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 2: Year.
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 1: Man he's given up fifteen home. Runs that's not good
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 1: in the month Of june four point seven THREE era
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 1: twenty to twelve strike out walk, ratio so he did
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 1: not pitch well In. Junle he did have one really
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 1: bad start against The, cubs who were really good, offense
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 1: and other than, that his starts weren't really that. Bad
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 1: he allowed two or fewer earned runs in the other
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 1: four starts that, month though his team still lost.
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 2: Almost all of.
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 1: Them SO i don't know what we're doing here With, hancock,
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 1: MAN i don't know what we want to. Do his
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 1: walk numbers are still bad against The. Royals fourteen at
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 1: bats against The royals two eighty six, average allowed seven
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 1: eighty six. Ops SO i don't Love hancock here. Either
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 1: so it might be a situation where you go over
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 1: the total in this. One it's gone up a little
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 1: bit from eight to eight with juice on the, over
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 1: although eighty five percent of tickets on the over and
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 1: sixty one percent of the cash on the, over so
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 1: the cash looks like it's not agreeing with. That BUT
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 1: i don't think you could trust either starting pitcher. There
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 1: San francisco At. Arizona i've got to finish this. Man
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 1: arizona unfortunately won, yesterday but of course we Know arizona
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 1: has the worst bullpen and the better offense, Here so
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 1: you gotta figure all this. Out Bird song pitching For
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 1: San francisco, here four point one THREE, era one point
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 1: three eight. Whip that's not. Good he's been a little
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 1: bit better on the, road but not very significantly. So
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 1: and he's in a very hitter friendly park, here and
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 1: he was not good in the month Of. June San
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 1: francisco lost his last three. Starts he has twenty one
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 1: to twelve strike a walk ratio is what he had
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 1: In june six point three EIGHTY ira In, june got
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 1: blast By, miami and his last outing In june didn't
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 1: even make it five innings in three of those five.
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 1: Starts didn't do well against The Red sox in the
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 1: second to last start. Either so Bird song not pitching
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 1: well Against. Arizona thirty at, bats has given up three home,
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 1: runs although two of them Are suarez nine to six
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 1: striggle walk ratio two sixty seven average, allowed oneenty twenty
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 1: two oh. Ps Bird, SONG i, MEAN i don't trust him.
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 1: Here he's not a good. Form his numbers are not
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 1: good Against. Arizona Zach gallon pitching For. ARIZONA i keep
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 1: saying he should be better than he's doing this year
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 1: five point seven FIVE era and one point four to ONE.
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 1: Whip he's been awful this, year and he's been even
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 1: worse at home six point twenty NINETY. Ra BUT i
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 1: expect him to somehow turn this around at some. Point
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 1: man six point two to THREE era In, june though
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 1: twenty two to end striggle walk.
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 2: Ratio he was not good In.
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 1: June he's not a good form, either coming off giving
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 1: up seven runs at Coors, field although it is Cores,
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 1: field five runs against The White sox not a good.
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 1: Offense he's allowed at least four runs in his last four, starts.
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 2: So he hasn't been pitching well.
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 1: Either Against San francisco he has good numbers though in
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 1: ninety six at bats too away at average six point
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 1: eighty TWO. Ops that's pretty, good except he's walked too
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 1: many again twenty nine to seventeen strike a walk. Ratio
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 1: so what do we want to do with this? Game
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 1: given that both pitchers are just pitching so? POORLY i
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 1: would say probably an over total's gone up a little
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 1: bit from nine to nine and a, half seventy eight
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 1: percent of, tickets ninety six percent of cash on the
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 1: OVER i Know San francisco has a bad offense and
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 1: a good, bullpen BUT i think with both starting pitchers
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 1: not pitching well at all, RECENTLY i think it over makes.
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 1: Sense and then to finish it Off dodgers against The
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 1: White sox very you, know uninteresting, GAME i, think although
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 1: the starting pitching matchup is somewhat. Interesting, Uh dodgers returning
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 1: over from a road, trip but they went To colorado
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 1: and then The, royals so it is somewhat of a bad.
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 1: Spot dodgers returning over a road, trip going back to
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 1: The Pacific coast and avenue Fished. Chicago chicago is starting
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 1: a road, trip so it could be more of a
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 1: focus for The White sox and they have some momentum
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 1: after Beating San francisco a couple of, times so it
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 1: is a better spot for The White. Sox of, course
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 1: The White sox have the way worse offense and the
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 1: worst bullpend here they. Do With Shane smith on the,
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 1: mound he's been okay three point three EIGHTY, ra one
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 1: point two to seven whip not, bad better on the
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 1: road two point five to five yr on the, road
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 1: but he's been starting to. Slip man with a five
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 1: point SIX era In june fourteen to nine struggle Walk
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 1: rasio In. June last two, starts allowed five runs in
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 1: each of them and didn't go more than four and
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 1: a third in either of, them and they lost both.
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 1: Games So smith starting to regress a little, bit even
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 1: though The dodgers have never seen him before and he
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 1: is a good young rookie, pitcher so he might have
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 1: a little bit of an edge because The dodgers have
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 1: never seen it. Before i'm not sure the edge is
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 1: gonna be that. Significant he's not in good form right,
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 1: now and he's going up Against, yamamoda who obviously is
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 1: having a good season two point six ONE, era one
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 1: point zero five. Whip he's been worse at home, though
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 1: three point seven to ONE era at, home so a
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 1: little bit more hittable at.
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 2: Home i'm.
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 1: Up june he was actually a little bit worse as,
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 1: well four point two twenty six to eleven strike a
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 1: walk ration and The dodgers lost four of his five.
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 1: Starts So yamamoto proving to be human. Here but he
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 1: is up against a very Bad White sox lineup, here
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 1: and they have actually never seen him before. Either So
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 1: yamamoto probably as the edge here where both starting pitchers
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 1: have never been seen. Before probably The dodgers have got
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 1: to have the edge here and basically every aspect of this.
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 2: Game but you're laying a huge.
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 1: Price they're down for minus three twenty five to minus
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 1: three twenty one ninety takes ninety seven percent of the
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 1: cash money coming in on the under the eight and a,
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 1: half even though it went up From may to, eight
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 1: and have sixty percent of tickets sixty one percent of
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 1: the cash and the. Unders the way THAT i would
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 1: do this is Probably White sox team total under is
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 1: probably the way to look at this game and Expecting
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 1: yamamoto to do well against them where they're not familiar with.
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 1: Him he is the much more proven picture of the,
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 1: two and The White sox lineup is just. Awful So
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 1: White sox teams Total why DO i keep saying the
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 1: opposite of WHAT i? Mean White sox team total under
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 1: is probably the way to look at, this so that
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 1: you're probably gonna have to ask them to score like
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 1: two or fewer runs in the.
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 2: Game that's gonna do.
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 1: It. Man so the Plays i've given out one more
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 1: time are Twins marlins under the total in the for
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 1: in the Full game seven and a half And Milwaukee
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 1: brewers at a little bit of an underdog.
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 2: Price that's gonna do.
• 1:10:21
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