Latest / Arctos x Teddy Sin - Coffee Break, Market Take / 29/10/2026 Thu - The Fed held. That was the easy part.
Transcript
- This is my AI voice. The script comes from my market research system, and a person checks it before it goes out. It's education, not personal investment advice. Good morning. Teddy here. It's Thursday, the twenty-ninth of October. Let me start with a word most people hear as good news. Unchanged. On Wednesday the Federal Reserve kept its rate range at 3.75 to 4 percent. A lot of people heard that and relaxed. Nothing changed, so nothing to worry about. I understand the feeling. I used to think the same way, and it cost me. Here's what I'd look at instead. The vote was ten to two. And the two people who disagreed did not want a cut. They wanted a hike. Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack both voted for a quarter-point increase. The statement called growth strong and inflation still too high. And the chair, Kevin Warsh, gave no clear signal about December. So the headline says hold. The vote says the debate has moved toward tighter, not looser. That matters, because the ten-year Treasury yield stayed above 5 percent, at about 5.02 to 5.05. When the safest bond in the world pays you 5 percent, growth stocks and gold have to work harder to look attractive. That's the pressure. It doesn't tell you what happens next. It tells you which way the weight leans. Second story. Big Tech reported after the bell, and it split in two. Microsoft rose about 4.1 percent after hours. Revenue came in at 92.28 billion dollars, up 19 percent, and its cloud business, Azure, grew 48 percent. Alphabet, the parent of Google, went the other way. It fell about 8.7 percent after hours after missing on both revenue and earnings per share. Oracle had jumped almost 11 percent during the day, then slipped about 2.5 percent after hours. Now here's the part people miss. The Nasdaq closed up just 0.27 percent. That number was set before these results. So yesterday's close tells you very little about this morning. When you look at your Nasdaq chart today, remember there is a gap of information that the candles haven't caught up with yet. Two big names, opposite directions. That's two-way pressure, and you should treat it that way. Third story. Oil. Brent settled at 115.32 dollars a barrel, up 1.44. West Texas crude settled at 102.78, up 2.88. Part of the move is linked to reports of an attack on a Saudi refinery, and wider worries about supply from the Gulf. Oil above 100 dollars is not just a story for drivers and airlines. It feeds inflation. And inflation is exactly why two Fed members wanted a hike. So oil, yields and the Fed are really one story told three ways. For us in Malaysia, palm oil futures sat around 4,700 ringgit a tonne, roughly flat. October exports were strong, but record stockpiles are holding prices back. The KLCI closed Wednesday at 1,613.87, up about 2 points on late buying. Over in Japan, there's a lesson in how indexes can fool you. The Nikkei closed Wednesday at 63,954, up 685 yen. Sounds strong. But four chip and AI stocks, Advantest, Tokyo Electron, SoftBank Group and Kioxia, added about 732 yen between them. That's more than the whole gain. Meanwhile the broader TOPIX fell. On the main board, 434 stocks rose and 1,096 fell. The index went up. Most of the market went down. Same day. Now, tonight. This is where I'd be most careful. At 8:30 tonight, Malaysia time, the US releases third-quarter GDP and the PCE inflation gauge together. The market expects GDP growth of 3 percent annualised, and headline PCE at 3.6 percent year on year, with core at 3.1. Then at 9:15, the European Central Bank announces its decision, with the press conference at 9:45. And on Friday, the Bank of Japan meets. It's expected to hold at 1.25 percent, with all eyes on its updated outlook. Three big events inside one hour tonight. That's when spreads widen and candles get long wicks in both directions. So here's how I'd approach the day. Three things, same as always. Candles. Look at what your own chart is actually printing, not what the headline says. Direction. Know which way the bigger trend points before tonight's numbers. Momentum. Wait for it to confirm after the data. Not before. And if you do trade through tonight, size smaller than usual. A missed move costs you nothing. A big position into three releases can cost you a month of good meals. This is educational market commentary, not personal financial advice. No outcome is guaranteed. Markets carry risk of loss. Size your risk before any trade. Survive first. See you tomorrow.