Latest / Turley Talks / Ep. 3797 Democrats in SHAMBLES as GOP WINS Special Election!!!

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Ep. 3797 Democrats in SHAMBLES as GOP WINS Special Election!!! · Turley Talks

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  [SPEAKER_00]: The liberal globalist order is on its brink and awakening a new conservative age.
• 0:06
  [SPEAKER_00]: Dr. Steve Turley joined me every day as we discover answers to today's toughest challenges and explore the re-bondalization of conservative civilization.
• 0:18
  [SPEAKER_00]: This is Turley Talks.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: The Democrats thought Georgia was slipping through Republican fingers.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: They pointed to their public service commission wins last November and that statehouse flip and Athens back in December.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: They said the momentum was theirs, that the map was shifting.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: And then last night, in a district that looked like it was going blue.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Georgia voters sent the Democrats a message, a clear and unmistakable message, a message that completely shattered the hopes of Democrats and is leaving the party in absolute shambles.
• 0:58
  [SPEAKER_00]: Hey gang, it's me, Dr. Steve, your oil painter, professor celebrating you in another day in Trump's golden age that you made possible back in November of 2024, so if you want a front row seat on how you continue to change the entire world, it weighs you never even imagine, make sure to smack that bell.
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• 1:34
  [SPEAKER_00]: The state of Georgia held yet another special election yesterday.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: There were actually dozens of special elections all across the country, but they were for school board or district chairman or local judges in the like.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: But the one that every political strategist had their eyes on was Georgia State Senate District 18 between the Republican Steve McNeill.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: and the Democrat Lamario Brown now coming into this race it was a bit of a nail biter given the ways in which Georgia has been trending blue of light the special election was for district that stretched from the outskirts of making through Crawford and Monroe peach and ups and counties so really the heart of Georgia it was a district that
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Um, because just the vibe was moving in their direction.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: They thought they were going to pull this off.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Democrats poured a lot of hope into this race.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: They spotlighted it as a flip-off opportunity.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: They pointed to Brown's first place finish back in January.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: In the first round of elections, when there were a number of Republicans in the race and they openly declared the Democrats did.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: that this district was trending their way and who complained them again after winning that Athens area state house seat in December and those public service commission races in November of last year.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: They thought they had a wave building up in Georgia.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: But with all the votes counted as of last night, the result was a nightmare for the Democrats.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Republican Steve McNeill absolutely crushed his Democrat opponent, winning nearly 60% of the vote.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: But here's where things get very interesting.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: This is a district where Trump won by 22 points.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: In yesterday's Senate runoff, McNeill won by 19 points.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: So that's a 3% difference from 2024.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: So that's a swing of roughly 3 points towards the Democrats.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: compared to Trump's performance back in 24.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Now, if you extrapolate that shift and apply it nationally, then we would be looking at a Democrat plus three environment for the midterms, meaning if every race across the country shifted three points towards Democrats, relative to Trump's numbers in 2024, that's what the electorate would look like.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Make no mistake.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: That's a disaster for the Democrat.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: A Democrat plus three electorate in a midterms, the zero games.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: If anything, they'll lose seats.
• 4:20
  [SPEAKER_00]: They need to be up at least six or seven to see anything major come out of the midterms.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Again, because so much of there, so much of their vote is concentrated in urban cosmopolitan centers.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: It's not spread out like the Republicans, but it actually gets a lot worse than that.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: You see, Trump didn't just win that district by three more points than the Republican did this time around.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: He won it by three more points while at the same time winning the national popular vote by two points in 2024.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: So if we're going to extrapolate a national average for turnout from the special election, we have to factor both.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Trump's margin in the district in that Georgia Senate district and his margin in the popular vote, which means that we're looking at a Democrat plus one midterm when all is said and done.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: The plus three advantage in the district gets diluted by Trump's two point popular vote when leaving the Democrats, which is plus one nationally.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Now, you don't win midterms with a plus one electorate as the Democrat, given how to, again, Democrat demographics are it in organically centered geographically centered on urban
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  [SPEAKER_00]: and cosmopolitan populations, they don't stretch out across the 3,000 plus counties like Republican demographics do.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Again, that's why they need a plus 6 Democrat turnout at least for the midterms to mean anything for them.
• 5:57
  [SPEAKER_00]: And we have even more data to show that the Democrats are tanking as we speak.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: We've got more special elections that show that the Democrats
• 6:09
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• 6:14
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• 8:15
  [SPEAKER_00]: Just a couple of weeks back, back on February 3, there were a number of special elections for to be exact, where we saw some pretty stunning GOP over performance.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Now, the big one was for an Alabama State House seat.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: The Republican Chris Nelson crushed her Democrat opponent with 85% of the vote.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: I got to move to that district.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: That represents a 28 point over performance.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: for Republicans since 2024 was a Trump plus 42 district.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: So obviously solid red.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: But this vote margin came in nearly 30 points higher.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: And it's extraordinary.
• 8:54
  [SPEAKER_00]: But then when you compare that race with how the GOP did in three other special elections for New York State seats, the average electorate was Republican plus 3.5.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: plus 3.5.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Again, from 2024.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: So if that were to hold and then you adjust it, according to Trump's popular vote, win of two points.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Analysts were predicting that that would translate into a Republican plus 5.5 and plus near a near plus 6 electorate in the midterms, which would be an absolute Democrat bloodbath.
• 9:34
  [SPEAKER_00]: So now we got the special election in Georgia,
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  [SPEAKER_00]: That's been the supposed trajectory in Georgia, all the special election wins thus far, have been going to the Democrats.
• 9:47
  [SPEAKER_00]: But now with Senate District 18's results in, we're seeing a Democrat plus one electorate, so you combine these two clusters of special elections, the one yesterday and the four from a couple of weeks back, we're looking at a Republican say plus four plus five electorate,
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  [SPEAKER_00]: So again, this is absolutely huge.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: And we're getting a bit of a window as to why, as to what's really happening here.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: I don't know if you saw this.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: It's the latest morning consult poll.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Morning consult polls are notoriously left leaning.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: But that said, I mean, take a look at these numbers.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Everyone's talking about them today.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: When voters are asked, which party they trust more
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Republicans dominate across the board on the things that matter most to everyday Americans national security Republicans lead by 10 immigration Republicans lead by eight national debt trade in taxes all Republican by five foreign policy GOP by four and the economy the single most important issue in virtually every midterm
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  [SPEAKER_00]: by one.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: And that lead is only going to continue to grow as the economy continues to take off.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: National security, immigration, the economy, debt, trade, taxes, these are the issues that decide elections, especially midterms when the party that owns the top of mine issues
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  [SPEAKER_00]: wins.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Make no mistake for Democrats who've been hoping beyond hope for a blue wave coming in 2026, this latest morning consult poll is a nightmare.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: This is absolutely devastating for the lap.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: It makes crystal clear that voters want secure borders.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: They want a strong economy.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: They want safe streets.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: They want law and order.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: When every one of those kitchen table bread and butter issues, they trust Republicans more overwhelmingly so.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Democrats can chase the woke culture wars all they want, but when Americans are asked, who they trust a handle, what actually matters to their families, the GOP wins, and it's not even close and it's coming from a pollster that is notoriously left-wing.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: So those are some of the big developments of the last 24 hours, all suggesting a very strong Republican showing for the upcoming midterms.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: No, of course, we can't be complacent or anything like that.
• 12:33
  [SPEAKER_00]: We all have to do our part, but we'll of course be keeping a very close eye on how things develop here, but there's frankly no question.
• 12:43
  [SPEAKER_00]: The last 24 hours have been great news for Republicans.
• 12:48
  [SPEAKER_00]: and a disaster for the Democrats.
• 12:51
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