Latest / Simply Bitcoin / Michael Saylor OFFICIALLY Declares The Dump is OVER!!! | EP 1490

Transcript

Michael Saylor OFFICIALLY Declares The Dump is OVER!!! | EP 1490 · Simply Bitcoin

0:01
As Bitcoin is approaching $80,000, everyone is now
0:06
debating what's coming next. Michael Saylor just said that
0:10
Bitcoin is about to go higher. Whales are buying, BlackRock
0:14
nearly bought a billion dollars of Bitcoin in a day, and retail
0:18
is heavily shorting Bitcoin in the options market.
0:22
Only one side walks away from this cycle alive.
0:26
And today we're going to explore who will be right and the and
0:30
we're going to answer the question a lot of you are
0:31
probably getting. I'm getting this from my
0:33
friends. I'm sure you guys are getting
0:35
the same question. Is now the right time to buy
0:38
Bitcoin or should you wait until another dip happens?
0:42
So let's start with Sailor. He did another cryptic AI tweet.
0:49
I think this is the first time he's actually declared this.
0:52
Obviously we heard in the past he said the crypto winter isn't
0:55
going to last that long. There's a lot of debate because
0:59
the price did dump afterwards and now he's he's flipping
1:04
bullish guys, he tweeted the winter is over with a full what
1:10
Game of Thrones ask AI picture here.
1:12
So that's the that's the big question here is the quote
1:17
crypto winter officially over. Obviously the price is feeling a
1:22
little bullish. We're getting a little little
1:23
bit of more action. We are starting to see, as we
1:26
covered earlier in this week, this idea of a slow grind higher
1:30
playing out in real time. And if you're watching Bitcoin
1:33
and gold right now or Bitcoin priced in gold, it's looking
1:37
pretty bullish, guys. It's looking like it's trending
1:40
upwards and bounced off the bottom.
1:42
But anyways, we're going to start with one headline from
1:46
Yahoo News. I actually saw a couple of
1:48
different corporate media headlines that were pretty
1:52
similar, but this one gives 3 reasons.
1:55
So we're going to start here because it does kind of lean
1:58
into everything else I'm going to say.
2:00
So from Yahoo Finance, it goes Bitcoin prime for $80,000.
2:03
Question mark 3 reasons traders expect a rally within days.
2:08
Honestly, this sound, this sounds like a loop headline.
2:11
You have three weeks left. OK, anyways, I'm not going to
2:14
read the whole thing. I'm just going to kind of read a
2:16
couple of snippets here. The main quote, major
2:19
institutions are behind the move.
2:20
This is more institutional allocator money such as advisors
2:24
and major wealth channels as opposed to short term retail or
2:27
hedge fund basis trade flows, which is kind of the trend we
2:30
have been covering here lately. At least most of the reports are
2:33
essentially saying the institutions are buying right
2:36
now. They're starting to get bullish,
2:38
they're allocating, they're dropping products.
2:40
This is an institutional LED run, which is part of the reason
2:46
why I personally have been saying that it's we might not be
2:50
playing out in a traditional four year cycle, but what are
2:53
the three reasons? Obviously it's Michael Saylor
2:57
himself, and this is saying strategy buys, but really it's
3:02
Stretch. Stretch is still tearing guys.
3:06
As I told you guys two weeks ago, Sailor had his first
3:10
billion dollar week with Stretch last week.
3:12
It almost got the $4 billion. He's got another billion dollar
3:17
weekend with Stretch buying Bitcoin.
3:20
So that's three weeks in a row that Sailor through his STRC
3:24
product is buying a billion dollars a week.
3:28
If this continues, if next week we see another billion dollar
3:31
buy and that's kind of the new trend here, this might by itself
3:37
change where things are going, just this amount of interest
3:41
into Stretch, the amount of capital, amount of money flowing
3:44
into Stretch so that Sailor can buy more Bitcoin.
3:47
We haven't seen this before. This stretch product is
3:50
something completely different and everyone is starting to
3:54
notice. So let me go back to the Yahoo
3:56
Finance article just to give you the headlines.
3:58
And then it says stress test, You know, second Bitcoin
4:01
weathered a major weekend stress test.
4:03
Nearly $300 million exploit in major decentralized finance
4:07
protocol triggered withdrawals of around 10 billion across
4:09
crypto projects. This one, I don't know.
4:12
I don't know if this one's really that much of a factor.
4:14
Obviously, yeah, it's never good when you see an exchange
4:20
basically get scammed here, but I I think we've seen bigger ones
4:23
in the past. And then probably the bigger
4:27
macro picture one, the stock market sentiment.
4:30
If you guys are watching the stock market, S&P 500's all time
4:33
high again, you know equities have rebounded, Nasdaq's
4:37
ripping, Dow Jones is climbing up and this point right here.
4:41
I want you to keep in mind this last point because I do have a
4:44
couple of tweets in regards to this idea, but let's keep it
4:48
moving a little bit. One of the big things that we're
4:50
seeing is it seems like everyone in the market, or at least all
4:56
of retail right now, it seems like the entire crypto Twitter,
5:00
Bitcoin, Twitter retail market is going short.
5:03
It seems like everyone is expecting another leg down.
5:07
As everyone's been talking about on Twitter, this idea, classic
5:10
meme of sell in May and go away. Everyone is kind of expecting
5:16
what we saw in April. The price is going to rebound
5:18
and then it's going to dump in May.
5:20
You're going to get another opportunity to buy a a lower
5:24
price. And then of course the whole
5:26
idea of the bear or bull market is going to come back in
5:30
October. But we are seeing something that
5:34
can potentially be a catalyst for the price to move the
5:38
opposite direction. And by that I mean to the upside
5:41
and it is the Bitcoin funding rates.
5:45
The Bitcoin funding rates just hit extreme negative levels,
5:49
absolutely insane. The entire market is positioned
5:52
short right now, every trader paying to bet against Bitcoin.
5:57
But in the 10 years of market data, what is really telling us
6:03
about this more of this moment is extreme negative funding is
6:06
not a bearish signal. It's actually rocket fuel.
6:09
So as we've all been covering, you know, is the supply shock,
6:13
the short squeeze in the room with us, the mother of all
6:16
supply shocks in the room with us.
6:19
I'm not saying it's in the room with us yet, but I am saying
6:23
there's a potential for an an epic short squeeze to play out
6:27
because literally the entire retail market is short.
6:31
And as you know, retail is most part usually wrong.
6:36
So if the entire retail market is basically shorting Bitcoin
6:40
right now, Bitcoin usually does the exact opposite.
6:44
So it it looks like we might be seeing some crazy amount of
6:47
shorts liquidated in the next few days.
6:50
If we see that happen, as this tweet says, it's rocket fuel.
6:54
One of the setups. OK, and then going a little
6:57
further on the short set up. Here's our boy check matey.
7:00
You know our I don't want to say second favorite Aussie, but our
7:04
other favorite Aussie out here that's doing incredible work.
7:07
He goes bears are paying 12% interest rates to be short
7:11
liquidations heavily skewed to the short side options still
7:15
heavily dominated by fearful put buying deep OTM puts command a
7:19
10 to 20% premium versus calls. The bears really, really, really
7:24
want the price to go lower. I'm looking at you, Nico.
7:28
I'm looking at you over there. OK, Going further, this is where
7:34
you start to really analyze what does this short squeeze mean?
7:37
Like what? What did we see happen in April?
7:40
Here's crypto quant and it goes BTC rally was a short squeeze.
7:43
As long as price depends on more, sorry, as long as price
7:47
depends more on derivatives than on solid spot validation, the
7:51
structure will remain vulnerable to reversal.
7:54
So this is putting a little cold water on the bullishness because
7:58
hey, as we're seeing negative funding rates, it seems like the
8:02
entire market is short right now.
8:03
If we do see another exponential short squeeze to the upside,
8:08
it's not the most bullish setup for a continued run to the
8:12
upside. So sailors saying winter is
8:15
over, we are seeing some indicators of that being the
8:19
case that maybe we are rallying higher, but we're also not
8:23
seeing the strongest setup right now and it's basically because
8:29
we're not seeing incredible amounts of people just buying
8:32
spot Bitcoin, but we are seeing the whales are back on the
8:36
table. This was actually a couple of
8:38
days ago shouts out the Bitcoin archive and he goes Bitcoin
8:41
whales bought 1,000,000 plus Bitcoin in three months while
8:44
it's holding 100 to 10,000 Bitcoin added approximately
8:48
45,000 Bitcoin last week, the fastest rate since July 2025.
8:53
So you're seeing, I don't like to say smart money too, too
8:58
much. I do say it obviously because
8:59
everyone sort of understands what that means.
9:02
But when the whales come back in and start buying, that's usually
9:06
an indicator of maybe we're starting to see a bottom.
9:08
Maybe they understand or maybe they're trying to influence the
9:11
markets in ways that the average person can't, which is obviously
9:15
why they're called whales. And going further, it's not just
9:19
the whales that hold a lot of Bitcoin in the dresses.
9:22
We did see an incredible amount of buying from the ETF, so
9:26
institutions aren't getting scared right now.
9:29
And here we have Andre who is head of research at Bitwise and
9:33
he goes good morning, morning from Switzerland.
9:36
US spot Bitcoin ETFs have purchased 18,991 Bitcoin over
9:41
the past five trading days, checks numbers.
9:44
That's nine times the new supply in that period.
9:47
Institutional demand for Bitcoin is clearly accelerating.
9:51
So again, I've been talking about this phenomenon on the
9:54
show for the last couple of weeks.
9:56
While retail is shorting Bitcoin, they think it's going
9:59
to go lower. What are the institutions doing?
10:02
They're accumulating right now and as I said in the beginning,
10:06
you know, I, I know Niko likes to say Bitcoin isn't 0 sum, but
10:09
trading sure is 0 sum. So someone's going to be right
10:13
here. And personally, I, I hate to say
10:17
it, I think my money's on the institutions.
10:20
They have a lot more money than retail combined.
10:23
So interesting phenomenon. And of course a single entity,
10:28
like I said in the beginning, BlackRock almost bought a
10:30
billion dollars. Well, you know the clients of
10:33
the BlackRock ETF, but BlackRock yesterday just pulled 970
10:37
million into Bitcoin in a single day.
10:40
Again, crypto Twitter is still arguing about the bottom.
10:43
I bit has had 9 consecutive days of inflows, 806,700 Bitcoin
10:49
total of course almost 2 billion over the past month.
10:53
Year to date inflows put I bit in top 1% of all ETFs globally.
10:59
They want Bitcoin guys. And this goes into another
11:02
headline from the block, which is showing just how much the
11:05
ETFs are buying and a bullish case for the ETFs at least year
11:09
to date. And it is of course, Bitcoin ETF
11:12
flows turn positive for the year.
11:16
Institutions want Bitcoin ETFs whether we like them or not.
11:19
They want Bitcoin ETFs, they want that Bitcoin exposure.
11:24
We saw a almost 50% drawdown. It didn't scare away the ETF
11:29
buyers. Yes, there's been some outflow
11:31
days, but the majority, again, year to date, it's positive.
11:36
They're buying Bitcoin. The 50% discount that we've been
11:39
talking about, or right now it's what 30 something percent
11:42
discount that we've been talking about.
11:45
They're chomping at the bits for this.
11:47
As we always say, if you like Bitcoin at 126 K, then you're
11:50
going to love it at a 40% discount.
11:52
Well, it looks like institutions are living up to that meme.
11:56
That's exactly what they're doing.
11:58
Anyways, I'm going to read the the short of it, and then I have
12:01
a couple of little quotes from this article.
12:03
And it goes. Flows, of course, have turned
12:05
positive for the year. Every rolling period tracked by
12:08
Bloomberg for spot Bitcoin ETFs is in the green.
12:12
And even though the ETFs bled amid depressed Bitcoin prices
12:16
and geopolitical and economic fears, outflows were
12:18
comparatively muted, which is what I just said.
12:21
Yes, there was some scenarios, some days here where we were
12:24
seeing outflows, but we seen year to day inflows.
12:30
The amount of buying from institutions is finally overcome
12:33
and even the outflows have been pretty small.
12:35
But I highlighted a few quotes here, or I hope I did.
12:39
Yeah, I did. Here we go.
12:41
Here's a quote and it says Slavin noted that crypto ETF
12:44
traders are somewhat unique in their willingness to hold in the
12:46
face of drawdowns. Quote Granted, there were some
12:49
outflows, but they were modest compared to the significant
12:51
inflows. We didn't see the rush to the
12:53
exits by retail or other investors in ETFs like maybe you
12:57
would see in other risk assets when the market turns incredibly
13:00
sour again, if you've been selling your Bitcoin, the ETF
13:07
buyers are more bullish than you.
13:10
We we can't let that happen guys.
13:12
We we can't let that happen. We can't let the paper Bitcoin
13:17
holders be more bullish than the people that are holding spot
13:20
Bitcoin ETF, and this is probably where I'm looking at a
13:24
lot of the TA traders. I'm looking at Nico actually
13:28
here saying we're going to 40K. He could be right.
13:30
You know, hey, he could be right, but we got to tell people
13:35
to buy. You want to be buying right now,
13:37
Don't be trading this stuff. Anyways, one more quote and he
13:40
goes, but another explanation has to do with the supposed
13:44
reason dead try I I can't speak French, a Bitcoin ETFs quote.
13:48
It is more of a structural play. They're using them in asset
13:51
allocation models, buy and hold strategies, not just tactical
13:55
trading tools, which is again, something we've been talking
13:58
about here. A lot of the reports that we're
14:01
that we're seeing coming out from these institutions marketed
14:04
or rather, you know, push to the ETF buyers.
14:08
Is this idea of, hey, you want to buy Bitcoin for the long
14:12
term, buy and hold strategies is this isn't the basis trade
14:17
playing out. This isn't you buy the ETF so
14:20
that you can head your shorts. They're like, no, add this as a
14:24
diversifier to your portfolio. Manage your risk and you're
14:28
going to be a lot better off in the future.
14:31
You do not want to miss out on this.
14:32
So this is a a fundamental shift in the narrative and the
14:37
education coming from the institutions in regards to
14:39
Bitcoin. And of course, well, really it's
14:41
the Bitcoin ETF, but it is it is starting to look like what we're
14:47
seeing. The institutions are probably
14:49
more bullish than you guys out there because everyone thinks
14:52
we're going to dump more. But on top of that, again,
14:57
BlackRock didn't just buy a almost a billion dollars in one
15:01
week. Over the last week, they've
15:04
almost bought 1 1/2 billion dollars of Bitcoin or 18,180
15:09
bitcoins. So that's a significant chunk.
15:12
OK, that's, that's some money. Now put that in the context of
15:17
one single buyer, BlackRock. Well, multiple people at
15:22
BlackRock, you know, or sorry, multiple people that are buying
15:26
the I Bit ETF have scooped up about 1 1/2 billion.
15:32
Stretch itself has scooped up 1.1 billion.
15:36
And these are just the numbers that we know from 2 entities.
15:41
Again, when someone with high conviction comes into the market
15:44
and wants to scoop up a lot of Bitcoin, it fundamentally breaks
15:48
all of our models. Now that's kind of the bullish
15:52
case. And I, I told you to keep in
15:53
mind the Third Point of that Yahoo Finance article, which is,
15:59
you know, based on what we're seeing in the broader markets,
16:02
in the stock markets, we're tentatively bullish.
16:06
But I really like this breakdown here, which I think again throws
16:09
a little cold water on our bullishness here.
16:12
This is econometrics. And he goes, Bitcoin is
16:14
rallying, but the market it depends on is not that strong.
16:18
The S&P 500 is at new all time highs, but only roughly 55% of
16:23
stocks are above their 200 day average and strong rallies.
16:26
That number is closer to 65 to 75%.
16:30
This is a narrow move driven by a small group of stocks.
16:33
Bitcoin is still trading at a risk.
16:35
Sorry, Bitcoin is still trading as a risk asset.
16:38
So if this equity rally loses momentum, Bitcoin won't be
16:42
immune. And we have seen this play out.
16:45
Remember, I've been trolling a lot about the fact that seems
16:49
like every market right now is dependent on a Trump tweet.
16:53
It seems like whatever Trump is tweeting, whether it's at 9:00
16:56
AM during the trading day or after the markets close, we've
17:02
been swinging wildly. And right now what we are seeing
17:08
is people are starting to feel a little bullish in equities and
17:12
stocks. They're starting to feel like,
17:13
okay, maybe this war in the Middle East isn't going to
17:17
really affect everything as bad as we thought it was.
17:20
It looks like we got last night another, you know, a three-week
17:23
extension on this ceasefire. As we covered in the beginning
17:27
of the week, we got a ceasefire, an indefinite ceasefire.
17:31
We didn't have an end date here, but we got an updated three more
17:35
weeks of ceasefire. So the markets are cooling off a
17:38
little bit. They're like, well, at least for
17:40
the next three weeks, we have some certainty on what's going
17:43
to happen. Obviously that can fundamentally
17:45
change, but we are seeing that the broader macro market, the
17:51
broader macro view right now is hey, we are we're feeling kind
17:55
of bullish again. S&P 5 hundreds hitting a new all
17:58
time high. NASDAQ, I don't think they hit a
18:01
new all time high, but it's trending towards a new all time
18:04
high. NVIDIA is ripping right now,
18:08
you're starting to see. We should just sell our bags.
18:12
Dude, we should just be AI Maxis.
18:13
Actually, Nikko, on that point, since I did bring up AI, what
18:16
was that stat you told me this morning about the AI stocks?
18:20
OK, I don't know if this is 100% true because again, you have to
18:25
like if you see any type of comment on X, like the beauty of
18:30
X is like it's unfiltered news. But you do have to don't trust
18:36
verify. But I did see a post from a
18:39
reputable news aggregator that said 45% of the S&P 500
18:46
consisted of AI related stocks. Something.
18:49
Bubbles sell huge, so the the. The reason I brought that up is
18:54
because the reason I brought that up is because the.com
19:00
bubble was very similar in that regard.
19:03
Now, of course, if the S&P crashes, it's going to take
19:08
Bitcoin down with it. But if you take a look at
19:11
the.com bubble, it's not that the speculation of the adoption
19:19
of the Internet was wrong, it's that it was completely
19:23
overvalued for where the Internet was at that time,
19:28
right? So like there is the infamous
19:31
pet.com from that era and the valuation on that company was
19:37
just ridiculous. Like it it just didn't make any
19:40
sense. Also, and Tropic, which is the
19:42
company behind Claude, one of the LLMS, you know, they have
19:47
plans to go public, you know, somewhat recently.
19:50
And of course, Elon Musk, you know, X essentially, you know,
19:56
is connected to grok, right? So.
20:00
You know, could we see a.com bubble 2 point O type of
20:04
scenario where there's so much hype around AI?
20:08
There's so much you see it everywhere.
20:10
We saw a company that there we go.
20:12
Love the memes. This meme's so funny.
20:14
Open AI Entropic XAI. The future economy.
20:17
Permanent underclass, right? That's hilarious.
20:21
But you know, the, the question is, is like is, are we getting
20:27
ahead of our skis? Is the market getting ahead of
20:29
their skis? Because I think that like the
20:32
current state of AI, right? And I'm going to talk as a
20:34
content creator, I'm going to talk to someone who literally
20:37
uses every single one. So I've used, I use AI, use
20:40
Grok, I use chat GB TI use Claude, they're all good at
20:47
specific things and etcetera, etcetera.
20:50
But like, are they really living up to the hype and the
20:55
valuations that they're living up to?
20:59
I would make the case that in Tesla's case, I would say
21:03
Tesla's, which again is connected to Grok, right?
21:06
You, you literally have Grok inside of Tesla.
21:09
I would say that is the most advanced AI company there is.
21:14
And the reason for that is there's a real world use case.
21:17
What is that real world use case?
21:20
That real world use case is the fact that Tesla's drive
21:24
themselves, right? So it's like real world AI,
21:28
artificial intelligence that's driving the car.
21:31
Now, does that justify the AI in the LLMS?
21:38
And the LLMS are great for research.
21:40
They're great. You could talk to them, right?
21:42
It's like talking like Opti calls him a demon.
21:45
I, I would, I would tend to agree with that right?
21:48
You're talking to a. Robot.
21:49
That's not what I call him. That's literally what Elon Musk.
21:52
Calls him so like you are like you are talking to like this
21:55
like computer. Sometimes they get things
21:58
completely wrong, but what is the usefulness of those things?
22:02
That's like the, the, the $1,000,000 question.
22:05
Now they can create images from the content perspective, They've
22:08
helped us create videos, but how much value does that actually
22:14
provide organizations? Now, I'll give you another case
22:17
study. So Block recently laid off about
22:20
40% of their employees. Jack Dorsey said the reason that
22:25
he he did that is because AI is able to automate all these jobs,
22:31
right? Like a lot of the jobs that were
22:33
necessary before for middle management and stuff like that,
22:36
they were able to automate it using AI tools.
22:40
So again, like if that is really the case, if these corporations
22:45
are able to lay off 40% of their workforce because AI is able to
22:49
automate things and it's able to optimize things, then I would
22:52
say, you know, the valuations are somewhat justified because
22:55
that's in stark contrast to the.com bubblelikethe.com
22:59
bubble. Like pets.com was not, it didn't
23:04
justify its valuation. Like a lot of these valuations
23:07
didn't justify their valuations. That's not to say the market
23:10
wasn't wrong. I think the market was right.
23:13
The problem is that the Internet really took about another 10
23:18
years, 10 to 15 years to mature to a point where these companies
23:25
were the backbone of the economy, right?
23:28
In 1999, using the Internet was an option, right?
23:33
You didn't have to manage your business.
23:35
You didn't have to run your business via the Internet.
23:38
By 2010, if you weren't using the Internet to do something
23:43
like to interact, I mean to, to, if you weren't integrating the
23:47
Internet with your business, you were at a competitive
23:50
disadvantage. By 2020, which was 21 years
23:54
later, if you didn't use the Internet as a business, you
24:00
would go out of business, right? So we're kind of in this like
24:05
overlapping phase where right now I would say that you can get
24:09
away with running a business without AI.
24:12
You can do it in 10 years. I don't think that's going to be
24:17
the case now. Does that justify the
24:19
speculation that we see with the LLM models and, and all of that
24:25
stuff? Perhaps perhaps this isn't
24:28
the.com bubble. What I will say is in regards to
24:31
demand, in regards to demand of compute power to, to service all
24:37
this AI demand, it's literally going parabolic.
24:41
So, and that does not lie, right?
24:43
That does not lie. The amount of compute power that
24:47
these AI companies or people that are using AI that continues
24:51
to go through the roof. So it could be, you know, this,
24:56
this pivotal shift, right? And, and, and I would say
25:00
compared to the Internet, I would say that, you know,
25:04
ChatGPT or clod or any of the things that we use internally to
25:09
make content. Like I got to say, guys, it's
25:11
made us a lot more efficient. It's made people a lot more
25:15
productive. So I would say it's a little bit
25:18
different, but again, you know, the market tends to get over
25:24
euphoric. It tends to assign these
25:26
overvaluations to things that might not be there yet.
25:30
The the market ultimately is forward-looking, right.
25:34
So, you know, I don't know, I, I, I don't know.
25:37
But when I see that number, then again I have not verified, but
25:40
when I'm seeing that 45% of the S&P 500 is connected to some AI
25:46
related, you know, product and stuff like that, you know,
25:49
that's where kind of like a little red flag goes up in my
25:52
head and. Wait, the economy is running on
25:54
hot? Air, no, I never, I never, I
25:57
never said that. I never said that.
25:59
But it it's just it it's to make the case that we might be we
26:04
might be, it might be the market might be assigning valuations to
26:10
these companies that might not necessarily have those they they
26:16
don't justify those valuations. However, how a political.
26:20
Response. No, I mean, it's the truth.
26:22
It's not a political response. It's the truth.
26:24
But what I will tell you, this is the amount of the amount of
26:30
compute power that is in demand right now that continues to go
26:35
parabolic and that will continue to go parabolic.
26:38
And that was a big part of the Trump administration's plans.
26:45
It wasn't just crypto that they were focusing on.
26:48
It was also AI, right? They, they did bring in David
26:52
Sachs, the AI and Cryptozar. It wasn't just the Cryptozar, it
26:56
was the AI and Cryptozar. And there's a, there's a synergy
27:00
between both of them. And we have, we, we had, we had
27:03
the honor of having Idan, the CEO of, of, of, of Hive Digital
27:08
Technologies coming in to talk about this the other day.
27:11
And we've had Frank Holmes, the executive chairman of Hive to
27:13
come in to talk about this, right?
27:17
The amount of compute power that is in demand to fund all these
27:24
better to service all this AI demand is continuing to go
27:30
through the roof. And if AI continues to develop
27:34
the way that it is and if it continues to be a part of
27:38
society, a part of the economy that cannot be replaced, then I
27:43
don't think it is a bubble at all.
27:44
I think, I think the the market is just.
27:47
OK, enough of the AI stuff. Nico, I was actually going to
27:51
ask you this yesterday. Do you think Sailor's right?
27:56
The winter is over. Where we at, Nico?
27:58
Where we at? Where we at in your head?
28:02
Is the winter over by wait? What did you say?
28:04
Are we going to see 39 K? So.
28:07
Is Ben Cowan right? So is is the winter over?
28:13
This is where like we are kind of in an uncharted territory.
28:19
If the cycle were to repeat itself, if the four year high
28:23
four year cycle is to repeat itself in downtrends you usually
28:28
have a bounce back. We've clearly this is what has
28:32
happened. We went, we had a downtrend for
28:34
five months and we are having a bounce back, right.
28:38
We hit, I think it was 58 K, 60K around that.
28:41
It was like 60s. Well, I saw 6300 or something
28:44
like that. So 6060 K.
28:47
So then it's normal in a downtrend for you to have these
28:52
bounce backs? I think for me to be fully
28:56
convinced that it's over, I would like to see 100K this year
29:02
for me to be fully convinced. And at 100K you're going to be.
29:05
Convinced and I would also want to see and I would also want to
29:08
see that during the summer months, which is the famous
29:12
means sell in May and then go away.
29:15
Bitcoin maintains these levels right?
29:18
So it not only stays at the 77K region, if it goes back to the
29:23
63K region, it holds that line and if it does that over the
29:28
summer, then the bottoms in right I I, I, I could say that
29:32
like with with confidence right? Of course this is speculative.
29:36
No one knows the future, but again, if you look at it from
29:40
the four year cycle perspective, everything's playing out exactly
29:45
like it has in every other cycle.
29:48
We, we, we've just had a bounce back.
29:50
This is normal. Every other single Bitcoin bear
29:53
market, guess what, we've had bounce backs.
29:57
That is totally normal. That is part of the course,
30:00
right? So, yeah, that's my answer to
30:03
that, man, is it looks really, really optimistic.
30:06
It looks great. The amount of Bitcoin, that
30:09
strategy by itself is buying through the stretch product, the
30:13
amount of institutional interest, the fact that Bitcoin
30:16
is entering into geopolitics. You had the general, you had
30:20
Treasury Secretary Scott Besson talking about it yesterday or
30:23
talking about it in Congress. Like this is happening.
30:27
All of this is happening in the bear market year of Bitcoin.
30:32
Usually bear markets year, bear market years in Bitcoin are
30:35
catastrophic, right? You have things blowing up.
30:39
And we did have that depressed phase like I, I'm not like, you
30:44
know, for last month and the month before that Opti like
30:47
things are getting dark, man. Like things are getting dark.
30:50
We were getting bored. I was dooming so black film.
30:54
That is typical of bottom ish behavior.
30:58
The question is, is are we going to just you know stay at these
31:02
price levels? Was 60 K the bottom?
31:05
If it is great it it, then the cycle's broken.
31:09
The four year cycle theory is broken.
31:11
But I think what everybody should be paying attention to is
31:14
what Bitcoin does over the summer, what Bitcoin does over
31:18
the summer months. That's what everybody should be
31:21
paying attention to. If we stay at these price levels
31:24
or if we go back down again and it only hit 63 K or it hits 55
31:28
K, that's the bottom. I, I, I, I, I would be extreme.
31:33
It it, it would for me, it would be inconceivable to imagine that
31:37
Bitcoin this time next year is going to be at 77,000.
31:42
The only question is the remaining question is did we
31:46
bought them out already? And I think we're going to find
31:49
out in the next three months. All right, that's my answer.
31:53
My answer is I'm going with the Chad Sailor.
31:56
It is over already 30% off the bottom.
32:01
A lot of financial advice go all in can.
32:03
We also talk can we also talk about the fact that like the
32:08
figurehead of Bitcoin on Wall Street is just memeing like
32:13
crazy? Well, that's, that's, that's
32:16
kind of like, I know I'm trolling, but that's kind of the
32:18
main point. Like I think what Sailor is
32:20
seeing with Stretch I, I think he's literally sitting there,
32:24
you know, in his big grand chair.
32:26
It's like I'm buying a billion dollars a week.
32:29
No amount of your guys is selling is going to drop this
32:34
when I'm buying a billion. The ETFs are buying billions.
32:38
It's just like he knows, I think he knows he changed the game
32:42
here. So I'm going with Chad Saylor.
32:44
That's that's my final answer. It's over.
32:49
Go all in. No, don't don't go all in.
32:52
Hedge your bets. DCA, obviously just continue to
32:56
allocate into Bitcoin. But if you know, if I am I, if
32:59
I'm answering this question with my friends, I'm literally
33:01
telling them that exact thing. I literally did that this week.
33:04
I'm like, yo, yeah, it's a good time to get in.
33:07
It might go lower, but it might not.
33:10
And obviously that's not like I, you know, standard TA, it might
33:14
go up, it might go down, but I would be buying right now if I
33:18
had money on the sidelines. You've already missed 30% off
33:20
the bottom. And if it doesn't go back down
33:22
again, you're going to miss a huge run.
33:25
If you're waiting for 8600 K, don't do that.
33:29
Just start to allocate in Bitcoin.
33:31
If it goes down a little lower, so be it.
33:35
Buy more. You can get more Bitcoin.
33:36
It's on an even better discount. That's what I'm telling my
33:39
friends and that's what I'm going to tell everyone else.
33:41
I I think it's a great time to get back into the market.
33:45
Final answer. That's the final answer.
33:47
All right, everybody, well, I hope you guys are all enjoying
33:50
Friday. I hope you guys are all
33:52
enjoying, you know, these these price levels.
33:54
It's it is good. It is good to be, you know,
33:57
close back to the 80K region. You know, being AT60K wasn't a
34:01
whole lot of fun. So enjoy it just enjoy it guys.
34:05
Again, it's all my strategy has always been the same since 2016.
34:11
I've dollar cost average the entire time I've bought at every
34:15
single top and I've bought every single bottom and I've bought
34:19
every single price point in between and that average, that
34:24
DCA strategy over time, in my experience, tends to be the best
34:29
strategy. If you're trying to trade this
34:31
thing, you're not going to do well.
34:33
You're going to end up with less Bitcoin than you had before.
34:37
I've seen this play out so many times, I can't even count it on
34:41
my hand right like it. I've seen it so many and I've
34:44
seen O GS talk about this. They're like dude, like they try
34:48
to get into all 'cause this is what happens.
34:50
And then and then it's Francis Puglio that said this, right?
34:54
Everyone wishes they were an OG, so they tried to play the
34:59
trading game to accumulate OG levels of Bitcoin, right?
35:04
But the vast majority of people get absolutely wrecked in the
35:09
process and they end up with less Bitcoin than if they just
35:12
stayed humble and stack sats. That's the main message of
35:17
today's intro anyways, guys, it's going to be a great show.
35:20
We're going to be right back just after the break again.
35:22
I hope you guys are enjoying your Friday.
35:24
It's going to be a crazy, crazy week next week.
35:26
It's going to be the Bitcoin conference.
35:28
Opti's going to be holding down the live show while I'm there
35:30
and we're going to be we're recording some content.
35:32
I'm going to be racing super cars.
35:34
That's I'm. I've never done that before, so
35:36
that's going to be exciting. Don't crash.
35:39
I mean, it's a huge track, yeah, but you know, I'll be back.
35:43
You got limited IQ. Opti is such a supportive.
35:49
This is this is me being supportive.
35:51
And the and the Chad so. This is this is how I show love
35:54
to my friends, OK? All the Chad is like like Nico,
35:57
it's like like I do something right.
35:59
They're like, Nico, I still hate you, but I still.
36:02
Hate you because the 39 K prediction.
36:04
I still hate you, but I do appreciate that thing you did
36:07
that was OK. So I don't know.
36:09
Wait wait dude, can we make this is totally off off topic but can
36:14
we re Can we reiterate that one comment from Hurley's video?
36:18
Do you remember the comment? Let's move on.
36:24
Today's episode is brought to you by Bitcoin Well Infinite.
36:28
If you're a serious Bitcoin buyer, you've probably hit the
36:30
same wall. Most platforms make you give up
36:33
custody just to play by the rules.
36:35
Bitcoin Well Infinite fixes that.
36:38
They're North America's only publicly traded, non custodial
36:42
OTC desk listed on the TSX Venture Exchange, which means
36:46
transparent operations and 0 counterparty risk.
36:50
You buy Bitcoin, you take immediate control period for
36:54
trades over $50,000, you get a dedicated executive Bitcoin
36:58
advisor, competitive spread starting at 1%, and immediate
37:02
delivery straight to your own wallet.
37:05
No custody risk, no withdrawal fees, just institutional grade
37:09
execution with full asset control.
37:12
If you want to buy Bitcoin the right way, book a free
37:14
consultation at bitcoinwell.com/OTC or e-mail
37:19
infinite@bitcoinwell.com. I want to give a shout out to
37:23
our partner stamp seed. Is your Bitcoin and cold storage
37:26
really secure? Are your seed phrases really
37:29
secure? Stamp seeds do it yourself kit
37:31
has everything you'll need for you to hammer your seed words
37:35
into commercial grade titanium plates instead of just writing
37:38
them down on paper. Paper is fragile.
37:41
Titanium plates are strong. Your words are actually stamped
37:45
into the titanium plate with this hammer and these letter
37:49
stamping tools. Once the words are in, they
37:52
aren't going anywhere. No risk of the plate breaking
37:55
apart and pieces falling everywhere.
37:58
Titanium stamp seeds will survive nearly triple the heat
38:01
produced by a house fire. They're also crush proof,
38:04
waterproof, non corrosive, and time proof.
38:07
And now you can customize your titanium seed plates.
38:11
You can upload your design or logo and they will laser engrave
38:16
it on the back of your seed plate, the opposite side of
38:19
where the words are. Stamp your seed on stamps and
38:23
use promo code simply to get 15% off anything on the Stamp
38:28
se-ed.com store. All right everybody, we are back
38:35
guys. The best place to buy Bitcoin is
38:39
Bitcoin. Well, if you go to
38:41
bitcoinwell.com/simply just by signing up making an account,
38:45
you will get free sats. That's fantastic.
38:48
Also, don't write your seed words down on paper.
38:51
Stamp them into titanium only with stamp seed.
38:54
Go to stampse-ed.com today. Use promo code simply to get 15%
38:59
off. At the time of recording, the
39:00
Bitcoin price is 77,680 sats per dollar 1287 block height 946,476
39:10
Realized monetary inflation .83% Market cap 1.56 trillion Bitcoin
39:15
versus gold market cap 5.18% Percentage issued 95.33% Decline
39:22
from all time high 38%. So if you're buying Bitcoin
39:25
right now, you're getting it at a 38% discount.
39:28
Anyways, I do want to show this video, which I did find quite
39:33
interesting. And again, if anyone who's not
39:38
in the know, essentially there's been these crazy videos that
39:45
have been going about and one of them was this guy betting on the
39:51
weather. And what he did was he took a
39:54
heat gun and he went to the airport where, like it, it tests
39:58
what the temperature is. And he put the heat gun to the
40:01
test to the to the to the to the to the temperature meter so that
40:06
the temperature would be higher and then he would win that bet.
40:09
Also, there was a an even bigger example that led to an arrest.
40:13
And I'm going to tie this into Bitcoin in just a second.
40:17
That was essentially a special forces member, someone who was
40:22
in the military that had the knowledge that the Trump
40:27
administration was going to conduct the operation in
40:30
Venezuela. That led to the arrest of
40:33
Nicolas Maduro, the president of Venezuela, and then him letting
40:37
and then him being taken to New York and then him facing trial.
40:42
Well, one of the military members essentially placed the
40:47
bet, He placed a $37,000 bet and he won $400,000.
40:54
But again, this is with insider knowledge.
40:56
So it's 2IN. It's two independent case
41:00
studies where one use insider knowledge of what was going to
41:03
happen before and the other basically cheated the system
41:07
because he knew where the temperature reader was and he
41:11
literally put a heat gun next to it to make sure that the
41:14
temperature ended up higher than what everyone was betting to.
41:17
And then, of course, this has has led to, you know, the
41:20
cultural mainstream where a lot of politicians are, are very
41:26
they don't feel really good about the prediction markets,
41:30
right? You had Elizabeth Warren trying
41:32
to crack down on this. A lot of people don't feel good
41:34
about it. Also in the sense that also in
41:39
the sense that, like, the polls are easier to manipulate from a
41:46
political perspective, right? But the betting markets are
41:51
extremely difficult to manipulate because you actually
41:54
have to put money on the line, right?
41:57
So of course, here's a journalist asking President
42:02
Trump, you know, about insider trading on the prediction
42:06
markets and all that stuff. And of course, Trump being the
42:09
comedian that he is, this was his response.
42:13
Or it's not loading. Let me give that another try.
42:23
Dude, Ricky, it's. Around the Gore conflict too.
42:28
And there have been some tracking where people suspect
42:31
that there's insider trading happening on these friction
42:33
markets around the Gore. Are you concerned?
42:36
Well. You know, the whole world,
42:39
unfortunately, has become somewhat of a casino and you
42:43
look at what's going on all over the world in Europe and every
42:46
place they're doing these betting things.
42:47
I was never much in favor of it. I don't like it conceptually,
42:50
but it is what it is. No, I I think that I'm not happy
42:55
with any of that stuff. But they have all these
42:58
different sites. They have predictive markets.
43:01
It's a crazy world. It's a much different world than
43:03
it was. So OK.
43:07
You got the P rouse one, dude. That one's funny, so that one's
43:10
actually funny. Let let's talk about this first.
43:13
Wait, let me, let me, let me play this one.
43:15
This one is actually hilarious. This this one's like, dude, he's
43:21
still got it. OK, This this one's just funny.
43:23
Yeah, hold on, hold on. I'm I'm, I'm fine to get.
43:26
Here we go. This one.
43:27
Change the camera angle. I'm saying 00.
43:29
This one is actually hilarious. Let me oops, sorry guys and and
43:35
then we'll chat about it. But this one is just so funny.
43:39
This one. This one legitimately cracks me
43:41
up. Mr. President, apparently there
43:44
was a special forces soldier who was involved in the capture of
43:48
Venezuelan President Maduro, who was arrested by federal
43:52
employees today on suspicion of insider trading and embedding on
43:57
Polly Market. Are you concerned that federal
44:00
employees are betting on these prediction markets and
44:03
potentially getting rich? Well, I don't know about it, but
44:07
was he betting that they would get him or they wouldn't get
44:09
him? That's like Pete Rose betting on
44:18
his own team. It's a little.
44:19
Like Pete Rose. Pete Rose.
44:21
He kept him out of the Hall of Fame because he bet on his own
44:23
team. Now, if he bet against his team,
44:25
that would be no good. But he bet on his own team.
44:28
I'll look into it. Yeah.
44:32
Oh, it's so funny, bro. All right, Sorry, dude, I'm
44:34
going to cut you off. It's Friday.
44:36
Let's have a little fun here. Yeah, so.
44:39
OK, let's talk about this like the world is turning into a
44:44
casino. Jack Molars has spoken about
44:46
this. I've said this on the show,
44:48
spoken about this. This is a symptom of the
44:53
nihilism created by the the theft that is happening in the
45:00
Fiat system. Full stop.
45:04
If you think this is not related to Bitcoin, you're kidding
45:07
yourself. The base layer of society is
45:12
broken. It's corrupt.
45:14
And what are the downstream effects of that?
45:19
The downstream effects of the base layer of society being
45:22
broken is that it forces people to gamble.
45:29
It forces people to speculate. And then this goes to my, you
45:35
know, one of the, one of my, my most famous quotes that I, that
45:40
I say on Twitter, you shouldn't have to invest just to maintain
45:45
your purchasing power. The fact that we live in that
45:48
type of society, first of all, it causes mass wealth
45:52
inequality, which leads to political division and political
45:56
instability, which is if you want to see why the country's so
45:59
polarized right now, it's because people cannot afford
46:02
anything. And the reason it causes wealth
46:06
inequality is because only the wealthy are the ones that have
46:09
the means to save in assets. So we're in this situation,
46:15
ladies and gentlemen, right now where the vast majority of the
46:18
world, they're living in Fiat despair, they're living in
46:24
central banking despair. And by the way, this is a
46:27
feature and not a bug. The reason that Bitcoin is so
46:32
powerful is because when you start living on a Bitcoin
46:36
standard, truly living on a Bitcoin standard, meaning
46:39
denominating your net worth in Bitcoin, living your life on a
46:44
Bitcoin standard, all you have to do is go about your day,
46:50
focus on mining Fiat, putting a percentage of that Fiat into
46:55
Bitcoin. And as time progresses, I think
46:59
at least it takes a decade, you will get progressively richer
47:05
over time and the things around you will get less expensive over
47:08
time. So that house that you wanted,
47:12
that car that you wanted, it's not to say that you're going to
47:14
be able to afford it, but it's going to get cheaper and cheaper
47:17
and cheaper and cheaper versus the rat reel, the the rat wheel
47:21
that we live in today where you work and you work and you work
47:26
and you work. And that piece of real estate or
47:28
the rent just keeps getting higher and higher and higher and
47:31
higher. And this is a symptom of broken
47:34
money. So if you want to explain the
47:37
nihilism, the moral decay in society today, a lot of it comes
47:43
down to broken money. And this is one of the things
47:45
that Bitcoin fixes full stop, right?
47:49
So anyhow, guys, it's going to be a great show.
47:52
We're going to be right back in just a little bit.
47:54
We still have a couple things to talk about and we'll be right
47:58
back, ladies and gentlemen. Also, I do want to give a shout
48:01
out of course, to our partner Leaden guys, Bitcoin
48:05
collateralized loans and Leaden is the best place to do it.
48:08
They have a, a, a very long track record, $10 billion in
48:12
loans issued, and they've never lost a single SAT for their
48:16
clients. There's no monthly payments.
48:17
You can pay back the loan whenever you want.
48:20
There's no penalty for that, and they just lowered their rates.
48:24
The reason Bitcoin collateralized loans are so
48:26
powerful is that you can tap into the wealth of your Bitcoin
48:29
without having to sell it. Check the link in the video
48:32
description, video slash podcast description.
48:35
And if you use our link, you'll get .25% off your first loan.
48:39
You see this studio right here that we've built out.
48:42
We, we took out a let in loan to be able to afford that, right?
48:46
So again, it's a very, very powerful tool.
48:48
You don't want to sell your Bitcoin, but you want to tap
48:51
into the wealth of your Bitcoin if you use them responsibly.
48:55
This is the keyword, right? It's a very powerful tool.
48:59
If you use it in a speculative manner, meaning you're taking
49:02
80% of your stack and you're taking out a loan, again, that's
49:07
irresponsible because you are going to be held accountable.
49:11
If there is downward cell pressure, you're going to have
49:15
to come up with more collateral in order to service that loan,
49:18
right? But if you do it responsibly,
49:21
it's a very, very powerful tool. And I see more and more people
49:24
and businesses doing this again to tap into the the wealth of
49:27
their Bitcoin without having to sell it.
49:30
So go to use the link below and check out their new rates
49:33
because they just lowered them. We're going to be right back
49:35
after the break. I want to give a shout out to
49:37
our partner Leadin. Here's something most Bitcoin
49:40
holders never figure out until it's too late.
49:41
If you're sitting on wealth you can't touch without selling,
49:44
Leadin fixes that. Bitcoin back loans, you keep
49:47
your stack, you get cash. And they just introduced their
49:51
lowest rates ever. No complexity, no fine print.
49:54
The larger the loan, the lower the rate.
49:56
These new rates apply to all new loans, refinances and renewals.
50:01
You'll see all the rates up front before you apply.
50:04
The new lower rates come with Ledens Gold standard protection.
50:08
Your Bitcoin remains custody and is never lent out for interest.
50:11
Perfect eight-year track record of keeping clients assets safe.
50:16
Auto top UPS, LTV alerts and partial repayments to keep you
50:20
in control. Repay whenever you want with 0
50:23
penalties or monthly payments. Ledens perfect $10 billion track
50:27
record through every market cycle in the last eight years
50:31
speaks for itself. Don't choose between a great
50:34
rate and the safety of your Bitcoin.
50:36
Get both at Leaden. I'm going to give a shout out to
50:39
our partner Bit Key. If you already self custody your
50:41
Bitcoin, you already know the deal with hardware wallets by
50:43
now. Complex setups, clumsy
50:45
interfaces and a seed phrase that can be lost, stolen or
50:49
forgotten. Bit Key fixes that.
50:51
Bit Key is a multi sig hardware wallet built by the team behind
50:54
Square and Cash App. It packs a cryptographic
50:56
recovery system and built in inheritance feature into
50:59
intuitive, easy to use wallet with no seed phrase to sweat
51:03
over. It's simple secure self custody
51:06
without the stress time named bitkey.
51:08
One of the best inventions of 2024 get 20% off at bitkey dot
51:13
world. That's BITKEY dot world with the
51:17
code simply. All right, ladies and gentlemen,
51:24
a huge part of reclaiming back your financial sovereignty is
51:28
taking your Bitcoin into self custody.
51:30
And This is why we recommend the bit Key hardware wallet.
51:33
It has two of three built in. It has inheritance built in.
51:37
It makes taking self custody of your Bitcoin incredibly easy
51:41
without giving up security. Go to bit key dot world today.
51:45
Use promo code simply to get 20% off again, get yourself a bit
51:50
key hardware wallet. Not your keys, not your keys.
51:54
It's built by the same people that built square and cash App
51:57
Highly recommended. This is what I give to my
51:59
friends and family when I want them to take self custody.
52:02
Bitkey dot world promo code simply.
52:05
Anyways, what I do want to talk about today, let me pull this
52:10
up. Forgive me Opti hold it down for
52:18
a second while I look for this. I don't know what you're talking
52:22
about. OK here.
52:23
Actually, I do want to say something, guys.
52:25
Everyone hit the pole. I I want to see what everyone's
52:30
thinking right now and on that pole all.
52:33
Right, everybody. So first hit the pole.
52:35
Second, this is what I want to talk about.
52:38
Guys. This is a big deal.
52:41
Why can't play this video for copyright reasons, but we had
52:45
our boy Sam Callahan go on the Schwab network and they're in
52:53
they're they're they're talking to him about Bitcoin.
52:56
Why are they talking to him about Bitcoin?
52:57
You want to know why? Because Schwab is about to
52:59
release Bitcoin trading. So this is this serves 2
53:04
functions, right? Like one of the big narratives
53:07
that came out was that there's a quantum threat to Bitcoin.
53:10
I think that's calmed down now. Adam Back went out and he again,
53:14
it's crazy to to, to, it's crazy for me to see so many people
53:19
arguing with Adam Back, even though Adam Back is a
53:22
cryptographer and he's mentioned in the in the Bitcoin white
53:25
paper and he's literally a computer scientist.
53:29
And it's like you think you have more knowledge than Adam Back
53:32
when it relates to this topic. I find it hilarious.
53:35
And it's not to say that quantum doesn't pose a threat to
53:38
Bitcoin. I just think that it's too soon
53:42
like we have much bigger problems.
53:44
I don't think quantum is going to pose a threat to Bitcoin for
53:46
at least another decade. But a reason they they brought
53:49
up Sam Callahan, which is very well respected person in the in
53:52
the Bitcoin community, very knowledgeable.
53:54
I think he's with Oranja BTC shout out guy.
53:59
They wanted to put to rest the fears to the Schwab audience,
54:04
which again, are going to be buying Bitcoin on the Schwab
54:07
platform that, hey, you know, Quantum isn't a threat to
54:11
Bitcoin, at least for the foreseeable future.
54:14
And again, this is this is what winning looks like, ladies and
54:17
gentlemen, like this is. So it's so easy to convince
54:20
someone who lives in, you know, the developing world where they
54:24
have a relatively stable, unstable Fiat currency or their
54:27
currency is prone to political censorship.
54:30
But you know, in the West, you're not really looking at
54:33
Bitcoin as a as a payments tool. You're really looking at Bitcoin
54:38
as as an investment vehicle. So if you're looking at Bitcoin
54:41
from investment vehicle and you keep seeing headlines from
54:45
legacy media talking about Bitcoins under threat for
54:48
quantum reasons, you know, what better to do than to bring
54:53
someone from the Bitcoin community to go on there?
54:56
You know, Sam in a suit with a nice collared shirt to talk
55:00
about the fact that, hey, listen, quantum is not a threat,
55:03
right? And this is this is what winning
55:06
looks like, guys. Because ultimately we saw two
55:09
testimonies yesterday. We saw one by an Admiral talking
55:14
about how Bitcoin is necessary for power projection.
55:17
It's a matter of national security. the US military is
55:20
running a node. And on the other hand, you have
55:22
Treasury Secretary Scott Besson making the case that Bitcoin is
55:25
going to be integral in payments.
55:28
But at the same time, those people aren't Bitcoiners like
55:33
you. I, I'm pretty sure Scott Besson
55:35
holds some Bitcoin. I don't know if that Admiral
55:37
holds some Bitcoin, but they're not Bitcoiners.
55:41
Sam Callan has a bitcoiner through and through, right?
55:44
This is someone from our, our neck of the woods.
55:46
This is someone from our industry, right?
55:49
So this is so powerful. It's like when Anthony Pompliano
55:52
or Natalie Bernal go on legacy media.
55:55
Lynn Alden has been making some appearances on legacy media too
55:58
as well. All those people are Bitcoiners.
56:00
They're bitcoiners hard core through and through.
56:02
They believe it. They've read everything there is
56:04
to no everything there is to read about Bitcoin.
56:07
And again, now they're having those appearances on those
56:11
channels to talk to people outside are effing echo chamber
56:16
because this is what you guys have to understand.
56:18
We live in an echo chamber as a community and unless we want to
56:24
get our message out there, we have to break the echo chamber.
56:26
This is why Michael Saylor went on Jordan Peterson pod, Jordan
56:30
Peterson's podcast. And I remember like one of the
56:33
questions that Jordan Peterson asked Michael Saylor was like,
56:36
so like, you know, like, like bitcoins going to take over and
56:40
you're saying all these things and whatever.
56:42
And Michael, Michael Saylor just said it bluntly.
56:44
He's like, yeah, This is why I'm here, right?
56:47
Michael Saylor went on the Jordan Peterson podcast because,
56:50
again, he's trying to speak to people outside of our bubble.
56:54
And that is how you move the Overton window.
56:57
That is how the bubble gets bigger.
56:59
I mean, I think bubble's a bad word, that that's how the circle
57:03
gets bigger. That's how the adopters gets
57:05
bigger, right? Now, where you guys, you guys
57:07
wanna, you guys have to understand where we are in the
57:10
adoption curve, right? You guys know the the the famous
57:13
S curve, the technological adoption curve there's the
57:16
innovator phase, which they are the O GS, the early adopters.
57:20
Then there's the early adopters. Right now we're crossing the
57:23
chasm to the early majority right.
57:26
Make no mistake, we're in the early innings of the early
57:29
majority phase. So when Sam or Saylor or any of
57:36
these true bitcoiners go on non Bitcoin related media, it it
57:44
widens the pool, it widens the community, it widens the people
57:49
that are willing to adopt Bitcoin and they're going to
57:51
adopt Bitcoin in however way they feel comfortable.
57:54
And I think this was one of the hardest learning lessons for us
57:57
Bitcoiners, at least because we were looking at it from a
58:01
perspective of like, listen, guys, everyone's going to learn
58:03
about Bitcoin in my echo chamber, Opti's my Quan and
58:07
Nico's my Creamer. That's hilarious.
58:13
You're against Bitcoin. You're against freedom.
58:15
Wait. Wait, wait, wait, wait.
58:20
Yeah, let's see. So like, what you guys have to
58:23
understand is like, you have to meet people where they are.
58:27
And this was part of Sailor's genius is that he developed
58:32
products that were going to tap into different pools of capital.
58:36
And the original utopian vision of Bitcoiners was, hey, man, as
58:42
soon as people find out that Bitcoin is better money, they're
58:45
going to go and buy a hardware wallet and they're going to go
58:47
and take self custody. And everyone's going to take
58:49
self custody, and it's all going to be peer-to-peer transactions.
58:52
Yeah, Oh my God, that's what's going to happen.
58:54
Yeah, that voice is perfect. That was the original thesis,
58:59
right? That's what we all believe.
59:02
But that's not reality. That's not reality at all.
59:06
The reality is that if you're a fixed income investor, you're
59:11
interested in fixed income products.
59:13
This is why stretches become so popular.
59:18
If you are a traditional investor and you're not tech
59:22
savvy and Schwab is announcing Bitcoin trading and you feel
59:28
comfortable and Schwab is saying, hey, if you believe that
59:31
Bitcoin's gonna have a 25% CAGR moving into the future, we
59:34
recommend at least a 10 to 20% allocation.
59:38
Guess what? You're probably going to buy
59:40
your Bitcoin on Schwab. If you're a Morgan Stanley
59:43
client and you've been a Morgan Stanley your client your, your
59:46
entire life. Are you going to listen to some
59:50
random dudes on the Internet wearing hoodies or are you going
59:55
to listen to the very well done traditional finance suits?
1:00:01
Professional, articulate, saying hey, listen.
1:00:07
This is probably a good allocation, and they're going to
1:00:10
get exposure to Bitcoin through the ETF and they're going to get
1:00:13
exposure to Bitcoin through the Schwab platform.
1:00:15
Now, is that ideal? Of course not.
1:00:19
We wanted the utopian vision of, Oh my God, everyone's going to
1:00:21
find out about Bitcoin. Everyone's going to take self
1:00:23
custody. Oh yeah, yeah, yeah, we're going
1:00:24
to win. That's what everybody wanted.
1:00:26
But that's not the reality. I think what Bitcoin Bitcoiners
1:00:29
fundamentally underestimated was human nature.
1:00:34
Human nature. You have to meet people where
1:00:36
they are and this is going to be a multi generational transition.
1:00:46
My kids are going to grow up Bitcoin native.
1:00:51
They were born into a world where Bitcoin existed, where
1:00:55
Bitcoin exists. They were born into a world
1:00:57
where Internet existed. They were born into a world
1:01:00
where the idea of self custody existed.
1:01:05
It's very difficult to convince someone who's used to dealing
1:01:10
with the traditional system, to convince someone to do a pivot,
1:01:16
to do the radical thing of taking self custody of this
1:01:20
bearer asset. If you make a mistake, there's
1:01:22
no 1800 number to call. That's a very radical idea,
1:01:25
right? That's not to say that people
1:01:26
haven't done it. That's not to say that's not,
1:01:28
that's not to say that's not what we're going to continue
1:01:30
advocating for. It's just the reality is that
1:01:35
the majority of people at this moment in time, I think it will
1:01:40
change over time. You have to meet them where they
1:01:43
are. That's a reality.
1:01:46
That's why sailor's product is so successful.
1:01:48
That's why sailor's products that's happened to different
1:01:52
pools of capital have been so successful, right?
1:01:55
And that's why it literally feels like literally running up
1:01:59
a hill or like what? What's that famous Greek story?
1:02:03
Sisyphus. Where like basically he's like
1:02:05
pushing up a rock and then the rock just keeps falling down.
1:02:08
Like over time, our pool of people that want to take self
1:02:13
custody will continue to grow and we will continue to advocate
1:02:16
for it on simply Bitcoin. You guys know the deal.
1:02:19
If it's not your keys, it's not your cheese.
1:02:20
If it's not your keys, it's not your Bitcoin.
1:02:22
That we, we've remained consistent in that messaging the
1:02:27
six years that we've done this. But the reality is that some
1:02:32
people are just not there yet. Ideally we do get to that
1:02:36
utopian vision of the world, but we're not there yet.
1:02:39
And the last example that I'll give before I move on to the
1:02:42
culture segment, the wrap up today show is in the 80s and 90s
1:02:48
there was a theory that, and I need a prop for this.
1:02:54
And the theory, the the 80s and 90s, there is a theory that
1:02:57
everybody in their home was going to have a personal
1:03:00
computer. What the vision of that theory
1:03:03
was, was that everyone was going to have a keyboard and a
1:03:10
monitor. And the monitors were so big
1:03:12
back then. And that was what everyone was
1:03:15
going to have. And that's how everyone was
1:03:17
going to communicate. Like that's how you're going to
1:03:19
access the Internet. Here's the thing.
1:03:22
That theory played out, that that theory came to be true, but
1:03:28
the original idea of that theory was completely wrong.
1:03:34
Yes, people have laptops. Yes, people have screens, but
1:03:39
not everybody has a laptop, and not everyone has a screen, but
1:03:43
everyone has a computer. And you know what that computer
1:03:46
is? It's your smartphone.
1:03:48
That's a computer. That's how everybody, that's how
1:03:51
the majority of the world interacts with the Internet.
1:03:54
That's how the majority of the world interacts with the World
1:03:58
Wide Web. It's the handheld device, right?
1:04:01
That you'd literally just use your fingers to use it.
1:04:04
Isn't this keyboard and mouse and whatever?
1:04:06
And the reason I'm bringing up that example is it's the perfect
1:04:10
analogy to where we are. I don't think most people are
1:04:15
comfortable with taking self custody.
1:04:19
I, I just don't, I don't think most people are, are, are there
1:04:22
yet. I think as time progresses and
1:04:25
you have innovations like the bit key that make it incredibly
1:04:28
easy to take self custody, I think you're going to have more
1:04:30
and more people feeling comfortable with that idea.
1:04:33
But I think it's going to be, as I said, a multi generational
1:04:37
thing. Anyways, guys, we're going to be
1:04:39
right back in just a bit. We have the culture segment.
1:04:42
Let's check it out. I want to give a shout out to
1:04:45
our partner Hive Digital Technologies.
1:04:48
Fueled by clean energy, Hive has quadrupled its global Bitcoin
1:04:52
mining footprint and channels that same scale into high
1:04:56
performance compute, where their AI cloud is now ranked number
1:05:00
one in the world for network performance.
1:05:03
At Hive, you've got dual engines, Bitcoin and AI humming,
1:05:08
roaring, accelerating and unison.
1:05:10
They're lean and mean. They're green and clean, and
1:05:12
they're rewriting the playbook on sustainable digital
1:05:16
infrastructure. You can catch the latest buzz at
1:05:19
Hive Digital Tech or at Hive digitaltech.com.
1:05:23
I want to give a shout out to our partnersat123.com.
1:05:26
Sovereignty isn't just about your money, it's about your
1:05:29
communications, too. When the grid goes down, most
1:05:32
people go dark. Cell towers fail in hurricanes,
1:05:35
cyber attacks and blackouts with satellite phones.
1:05:38
They don't rely on local infrastructure.
1:05:39
Iridium has 77 satellites in orbit giving you a Direct Line
1:05:44
anywhere in the US, even offshore.
1:05:46
If you hold your own Bitcoin keys, you should hold your own.
1:05:49
commstoosat123.com also has everything you need to start
1:05:54
building your Bitcoin. Citadel, Starlink, battery
1:05:56
backups, Verde bags to protect your hardware wallets, and much
1:06:00
much more. It's a one stop shop for anyone
1:06:03
serious about resilience and off grid independence.
1:06:06
Stay connected, stay independent, stay soft.
1:06:09
Go to sat123.com/simply today and use promo code simply to get
1:06:15
15% off anything on the store. Oh man, did the chest, the chest
1:06:24
killing me today. You guys are on fire today, bro,
1:06:28
I I'm really it's Friday, dude. I'm just going to shoot the
1:06:31
shit. Just you know, I really want to
1:06:33
talk about this poll here. Well, I, I we don't like for the
1:06:37
rumble guys. You guys yell at me.
1:06:41
Let's get it. Maybe we can get polls on
1:06:43
Rumble, but we don't have polls on Rumble.
1:06:45
They're like, we always ignore you.
1:06:46
So we're doing the YouTube poll and I'm ending it now.
1:06:50
Oh, where'd it go? What's going on?
1:06:54
I just lost it. I see it is crypto winter over.
1:06:58
Yeah. What?
1:06:59
What? What are the results at last?
1:07:00
So 200, wow, a lot of votes. So 212 votes say yes, crypto
1:07:04
winter is over and 40 and 45% say no.
1:07:08
I'm gonna end the poll right there.
1:07:11
So the majority that's not good. Yeah, I mean, but it is, but it
1:07:14
is our content. It is 5050 but that, but it is
1:07:17
close to 5050. It wasn't like the node the node
1:07:19
poll. That we got wrecked bro, shame
1:07:23
on you. Why don't Why don't you watch a?
1:07:27
Shame on you guys. We ran this poll and it was like
1:07:30
80% said I don't run a node and then 20% ran a node like and you
1:07:36
guys are tuned into simply Bitcoin.
1:07:38
You should be running a node or you don't.
1:07:39
You literally don't have a vote if you don't run a node.
1:07:42
Guys like, well, you know what I'm going to take away from this
1:07:44
poll, Nico, is I get them so bullish that they also agreed
1:07:48
the crypto winter is over. So I don't think this is a good
1:07:51
sample size of what the broader market thinks.
1:07:54
So I'm going to trade with you guys on this one.
1:07:56
I'm going with it is over as well.
1:07:58
But the node one is brutal. Guys, that one, we got to up
1:08:01
those numbers up. Yeah, we got to up those
1:08:03
numbers. And and I, I really wanted to
1:08:05
do, someone actually brought it up yesterday and I wanted to do
1:08:09
it, but I felt like it, it's in that kind of weird Gray area of
1:08:14
like almost doxing. So I didn't want to do it.
1:08:17
But I did see a very good click clip of Checkmatey and I, I
1:08:21
think I brought it up on the show and it was the question
1:08:24
that someone sent in the chats like you should do a poll of how
1:08:26
many people self custody their Bitcoin and I but that's yeah,
1:08:31
that's a little Gray area. I I that's, that felt like
1:08:33
doxing. So I didn't do it.
1:08:34
But that, that is an interesting question 'cause I did see, I
1:08:38
think, I think I brought it up. Check Matey did a pretty good
1:08:40
clip. I think it was on Natalie
1:08:41
Burnell and he basically said something on the lines of, look,
1:08:47
if we're probably being realistic, it's probably around
1:08:50
like 100,000 people that actually self custody.
1:08:53
And as much as we may not like it, the ETFs definitely made it
1:08:58
easier for people to get exposure to Bitcoin because
1:09:01
people don't want to self custody their Bitcoin.
1:09:04
And you know, that's, that's some uncomfortable truths here
1:09:07
that we, we really don't like as Bitcoiners, but that's I, I
1:09:12
think that's true. Now running a note guys, it's
1:09:15
not that difficult. It's really not that difficult.
1:09:18
If you watch this show you you need to at some point run a node
1:09:24
either on a computer stand alone, whatever.
1:09:27
Obviously we, we have said in the past, you know, you got to
1:09:31
get, you got to buy Bitcoin and then then you got to get into
1:09:33
self custody and then finally you need to run a node and once
1:09:40
you do that, you're a real bitcoiner.
1:09:43
You're sovereign. You're sovereign.
1:09:45
Anyways, guys, to wrap up today's show, I do want to give
1:09:47
a shout out to our sponsor, the Bitcoin Conference.
1:09:51
That's it guys, starts on Monday.
1:09:53
This is your last opportunity to get your tickets.
1:09:56
Use promo code simply promo code simply to get 10% off.
1:10:01
It's April 27th through the 29th at the Venetian Hotel in Las
1:10:05
Vegas, NV Bitcoin 2026 It is literally 3 days away.
1:10:10
You don't want to miss the biggest Bitcoin celebration of
1:10:13
the year. Massive, massive speakers.
1:10:17
You don't want to miss this guys Bitcoin 2026 in Las Vegas, NV,
1:10:22
April 27th through the 29th at the Venetian Hotel in Las Vegas,
1:10:28
NV. Use promo code simply to get 10%
1:10:32
off your tickets. All right, everybody, have a
1:10:34
wonderful weekend. Opti will be back next week.
1:10:37
Holding it down and I'll be back the week after.
1:10:39
Once I get back from Vegas, I'll be back on the Friday show next
1:10:42
week. Enjoy your family, eat some good
1:10:46
food, get some sun, go touch some grass, enjoy the weekend,
1:10:50
unplug and we'll be back on Monday.
1:10:53
All right, take care everybody, have a great weekend.
1:10:56
Today's episode was brought to you by bitcoinwell.com, a
1:10:59
Bitcoin only platform on a mission to enable financial
1:11:03
independence.