Latest / The Follio Property Podcast / Australian Buyer's Agencies Are Collapsing. Here's Why You Need To Be Careful

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Australian Buyer's Agencies Are Collapsing. Here's Why You Need To Be Careful · The Follio Property Podcast

0:00
The average value of a Sydney home has fallen yet again, giving first home buyers what the Premier is calling...
0:06
doomsdayers saying the market is completely cooked and we're in a massive recession.
0:11
People have a short memory, Reece, and this is why the doomsdayers are wrong.
0:15
We've just seen another large buyers agency go under Lachlan.
0:17
You're going to see more buyers agents go under, Reece.
0:19
This is going to be a common trend.
0:20
But I am concerned about the clients in these businesses that are going to lose money, energy and effort.
0:25
It's really tragic.
0:26
But the opportunity is... Sydney down 0.32% for the week again.
0:30
Sydney in the moment is an absolute freefall.
0:33
But on the other end of the spectrum, you've got a market that's about to go into a
0:39
You're listening to the Folio Property Podcast.
0:41
I'm Rhys Beddle and I'm here each week with my co-host, Lachlan De La Hunty.
0:45
Lachlan, Tuesdays, we usually jump into a seven-day market update, which we're going to do today, but I thought there was a few pressing industry news and particularly in the market as well that we should probably hit the nail on the head before we get into it.
0:59
There's so much out there, Rhys.
1:01
There's been a lot happening in our space, in our world of buyers agency.
1:06
Another couple of firms, another four in the last couple of weeks go under.
1:09
So pretty sad and pretty big news for the industry.
1:12
Let's talk about probably some feedback we've had over the last three or four weeks, I think, through some of our book.
1:18
Which we love.
1:18
Keep it coming.
1:19
Feedback is certainly warranted and certainly valuable from our point of view.
1:24
So don't stop.
1:25
But what are you going to say, Rhys?
1:27
No, let's – exactly.
1:29
We want to address it because it's actually two completely different sides of the spectrum that we seem to be getting at the moment.
1:35
There's no middle ground at the minute.
1:37
And a lot of the feedback – I just wanted to get your opinion on this first before we dive in – is almost the doomsdays.
1:43
Like we are seeing some significant price declines across the board now, particularly we've seen that in Sydney and Melbourne over the last –
1:51
six, 12 months.
1:53
But there's a lot of doomsdayers out there saying, you know, the market's cooked, the economy's going under.
1:58
We're out there speaking almost positively towards this, which I think we've been pretty balanced in my opinion.
2:05
But what's your sort of opinion or any sort of feedback to those out there that are thinking, you know, this is a GFC all over again?
2:13
Doomsdayers will be having a field day at the moment because they've been likely calling a downturn for a decade.
2:20
A broken clock is right twice a day, Rhys.
2:22
So these doomsdayers will be so happy with themselves.
2:26
They've likely missed out on the last decade of growth, but they'll be...
2:31
giving themselves a pat on the back because finally, after calling a downturn for the last eight years, they finally got it right.
2:39
But to answer your point, this is the thing, the feedback we're getting is on two extremes.
2:43
We've got some doomsdayers that say we're too optimistic and obviously we've got a buyer's agency so we're trying to push sentiment and we're nothing but positivity.
2:53
But then we've got another cohort that are saying we've been extremely negative and probably too pessimistic in terms of our view of the market.
3:01
which tells me we're getting it about right.
3:03
We're unbiased.
3:04
We're here and trying to call it as we see it, as the data's coming through.
3:08
So all agendas aside, often I get asked to push various markets.
3:16
Often we get local agents in certain areas saying, can we do an update on specific things?
3:21
And we're never going to do that, Rhys.
3:22
It's so important that I try to call the markets, as I see it, based on the data we have at hand.
3:29
And as I see it at the moment...
3:30
There's some markets within markets that are doing quite well and will continue to do well.
3:36
But on a macro level, there's some markets out there that are really struggling and we can highlight them.
3:40
But our job is to call it as we say it, whether you like it, whether you're a doomsday or whether you're an internal optimist, hopefully we sit somewhere in between and hopefully it's balanced.
3:49
But I appreciate you giving comment and keep them coming if you do think we're being too
3:55
or too negative, always keen to hear your thoughts.
3:59
I think the key thing there is you mentioned macro.
4:01
And when we're reading these market updates, these seven-day market updates that we've been doing recently, we are looking at it at a macro level.
4:07
But that doesn't show what every single individual micro market's doing within that state or within the country as well.
4:13
And I think that's the biggest challenge from a media perspective is it does get dominated by Sydney and Melbourne from a headlines perspective on the macro standpoint.
4:21
So you do get a lot of people that I guess will see that,
4:24
through all their news outlets and come to the podcast, and then we're almost talking some positivity in some of those micro markets.
4:31
I think it's important to understand that there are micro markets that operate within every macro market.
4:36
Without a doubt, and we're seeing it in these markets.
4:39
We're speaking to agents all across Australia.
4:42
We're speaking to valuers all across Australia.
4:43
So there's quantitative data.
4:46
which is obviously the numbers that we track on a weekly, monthly, quarterly basis race.
4:50
And that tells a really good story.
4:51
But then you've got the quantitative data, which is live.
4:54
It's what's happening.
4:54
How many people did you have at the home open on the weekend?
4:57
How many offers were at particular price points?
4:59
So you can start to segment markets and, you know,
5:02
We're active in buying in some of these markets.
5:05
And I can tell you on the weekend, we missed out on far more properties than we secured.
5:09
There were seven auctions in the Melbourne market that we attended as a business.
5:14
And we did not secure one of them because we got outpriced on every one of those.
5:17
So what does that tell you?
5:18
Do you think that's a market in that particular segment?
5:21
that's on its knees, that's going backwards when there's multiple bidders.
5:25
In one of the auctions, there was 12 different individuals that bid at that auction, and we got beaten by about 25% from our valuation appraisal.
5:34
That would suggest there's some optimism in that market.
5:36
That would suggest that it is somewhat competitive.
5:40
But equally, there's a property in Kilcare Heights, Central Coast, New South Wales, lifestyle area,
5:47
2023, they bought the property for $15.8 million, almost $16 million.
5:52
They sold and settled in April pre-budget for $8.2 million.
5:58
That's almost a 50% loss on that one individual transaction.
6:02
And that was pre-budget.
6:02
It's probably worth about seven or under at this point.
6:05
So you're talking about a 55% decline.
6:07
That is significant.
6:09
So don't get me wrong.
6:10
It isn't all blue skies and rainbows out there.
6:12
That is, you know, you're talking about, what, $7 million of wealth wiped out in, what, less than three years?
6:19
Yeah, that's tough.
6:21
You could argue it's a holiday home so they've got plenty of money.
6:23
There's people out there that are in negative equity.
6:26
There are people out there that are in financial stress at the moment.
6:30
And don't look to point and blame fingers at really anyone else but the government.
6:34
You can wrap a ribbon around them as the force that has caused a lot of this.
6:41
Before you turn on each other, before you turn on us, have a look at the people in charge of this country and the regulations they've put in place to do exactly this, force prices downwards.
6:53
But like all markets that I've seen since I've been doing this now for well over 15 years, Rhys, there's...
7:01
There is always markets within markets.
7:02
I've never seen a...
7:06
a blanket across the country of Australia where every sub-market has performed in the same way.
7:11
And we're seeing that at the moment.
7:13
So doomsdayers, you'll be fed information that you want to believe.
7:18
That's what the 2026 is that much information out there and your algorithm will start to feed you information that you want to read and want to believe.
7:27
So the doomsdayers, their feeds is going to be full of this negativity, this...
7:32
housing decline, recession, and the world's going to go under.
7:35
Your feed, Instagram feed, YouTube feed, everything you want to believe and listen to, that's where you'll form your narrative.
7:44
Equally, the optimist will be fed positive news stories.
7:47
We might feature on that, if we take a positive lens on the situation, but that's reality.
7:53
So
7:54
That's my view on the market and I'll continue to try to call it as it is.
7:58
Let's talk about buying conditions.
7:59
So you mentioned there buying conditions, people have been starved of good buying conditions across the country probably for every single market besides Melbourne in the last four or five years with limited stock, price growth, month on month doing some crazy numbers.
8:13
But now there is really good buying conditions in some markets and probably most markets within Australia, there's probably more stock availability, lesser demand, so better buying conditions.
8:24
How does someone know when it is the right time to buy, bearing in mind we are seeing some decline in price growth across the board?
8:30
If you take a medium to long term view, Rhys, and that's what you should be taking when you're dealing with property and property transactions, the right time is when it's the exact right time for you when you have the capacity to do so and it makes sense.
8:45
And if that co-aligns with a time where you're buying at a discount to what you would have been six months ago or potentially in six or 12 months' time...
8:53
then that probably places you in a really good position to do so.
8:55
Certainly if you're going to buy your home or you're upgrading and that upgrade a home that you can now buy for 1.7 mil but would have had to pay 2.5 mil or 3 million as little as four to five months ago.
9:09
I'd say that's a real upside if I'm a buyer.
9:12
But it's got to be right for you.
9:14
It's not the time.
9:15
And this is what we always talk about.
9:16
Every client, every individual in Australia listening to this podcast, their circumstances are going to be very different.
9:24
And when there is uncertainty,
9:26
That's so important to understand your cash buffers, making sure you've got cash reserves, making sure you're not overexposed in any particular market, and that's where diversification can come into play.
9:37
So all those things are really, really important.
9:39
But the fundamentals, if you take a medium to long view...
9:42
on say Melbourne over the next 30 years, you think that Melbourne will continue to grow as a population, will continue to have jobs, then you would argue that Melbourne and even Sydney, you know, do you think Sydney is still a good place to live?
9:55
Well, nothing's changed on that front.
9:57
Do you think Sydney will have strong population growth over the next 20 years?
10:00
Do you think Sydney will continue to attract, you know, Australian and international investment?
10:06
Well, yeah, tick, tick, tick.
10:08
Then if that's the right time for you, Sydney may make sense.
10:11
So could Melbourne.
10:13
Even Darwin, we talk quite negatively about Darwin.
10:17
If you're looking to buy a home in that market and the time is right for you personally, well, that may make sense for you if you take a medium to long-term view.
10:24
But the problem with short strategies and short timelines where people want to get in and out of market in 12 months and expect to make extreme returns, double-digit returns year on year for three years, get in, get out, then...
10:40
you're not going to survive this market.
10:42
And the number of buyer's agencies that are now going under voluntary administration, involuntary administration, is reflective of probably those strategies and those institutes because...
10:55
you know, they've built a business around probably short-term games and are going to struggle because it is difficult in the real estate industry across Australia right now.
11:05
If you're a buyer's agency, whether you're a selling agency, property management, everyone's facing a few headwinds.
11:10
So these short-term strategies and mindsets, these aren't the conditions for you.
11:18
Let's touch on that in a little bit more detail.
11:20
So some of the similarities between some of these big players in the buyers agency space that have gone under are those, like you said there, that have been looking at short-term gains, particularly regionals or speculative assets that are now starting to prove more challenging in this environment or, you know, black and white don't make sense in this environment.
11:37
How does someone know what a good buyer's agency should be and is it all down to strategy in terms of stability in that agency being able to get them, A, the right asset and B, the big fear that a lot of people probably be having right now using a buyer's agent is are they going to go on to it?
11:50
How are they going to be able to- Are they going to take my money and run?
11:52
Correct.
11:53
Yeah.
11:54
It's tough.
11:55
There's a lot of trust that's been lost in the last-
11:58
really two months post-budget.
12:00
It's probably, you know, what's the same when the tide goes out, you can see he's swimming naked.
12:05
There's no perfect example of that than right now, because you're really starting to see.
12:11
It was like during the COVID period when prices for builders, you know, construction costs went up at 30, 40% in a very short period of time.
12:19
Builders went bust everywhere.
12:21
To answer your question, how do you know?
12:22
Well,
12:24
There's two different services out there, Reece, in my mind.
12:26
There's a buyer's agency that's there to buy your property and that's it.
12:29
You give them the mandate and you go and deliver that mandate.
12:32
Those businesses are struggling because it isn't the right time for everybody, every individual right now to buy property.
12:38
So it's really understanding the strategy piece and that's why we always talk about it.
12:42
You shouldn't be buying a property if you don't have a strategy.
12:45
So anyone you should be speaking to,
12:49
hopefully has a medium to long-term focus for you as the individual and how property fits into your individual strategy.
12:57
And if that's not the case, then it's probably not the right fit for you.
13:01
But yeah, you're going to see, I think, more...
13:06
of these operations go under and they build a brand through typically meta-advertising.
13:12
We know the algorithms change and that makes it more expensive and the market has softened and all of a sudden you've got business going under.
13:20
I've been doing a fair bit of recruiting over the last three or four months and actually meeting and speaking with a lot of people that have worked at some of these agencies that have now gone under or had gone under at the time.
13:30
And I think the big thing that I noticed that was probably a differentiator, and this is for those out there that have got concerns.
13:37
was on the actual data and the strategy that these businesses were having.
13:40
I think a lot of it was kind of fed to these advisors, but they were just sales operators.
13:44
They had no understanding of how the data worked, what the strategy was right, is the same strategy right for every single applicant.
13:50
It might be repackaged as the same strategy for whoever they saw.
13:54
So I think that was a big thing without actually working within those businesses, just talking to a lot of these people over the last couple of months.
14:00
The big thing I noticed is there's a clear gap
14:03
between actual strategy, property knowledge, and actually someone who's more of a sales member.
14:09
And they're exceptional at sales, right?
14:11
These businesses have been built on sales funnels, sales KPIs, and they have been exceptional at selling their product and their service.
14:20
But they probably lack the property expertise, years in the game, experience, and that's not typically the fault of their own.
14:27
They've been trained to make really good sales operators.
14:30
And that's why we're in a time where those businesses will no longer exist.
14:34
So it's arguably you don't want to see businesses go under, but it could be a good reset for the industry in some senses.
14:42
But for those investors, and that's who's listening to this podcast, try and understand, and I'm speaking to clients, long-term clients on a regular basis, and I'm not immune to the uncertainty.
14:54
I'm pretty aggressive in my buying strategy at the moment.
14:57
And that's what I'll talk to when I'm doing in my personal world.
14:59
You know, we secured another unit complex blocks in Melbourne on the weekend.
15:03
Did I have a bit of buyer's remorse for the next 24 hours?
15:06
Absolutely.
15:07
I'm immune.
15:08
So I'm not immune.
15:09
I'm going to doubt myself.
15:11
And I go back to the data, go back to my strategy, what I've seen over the last 15 years.
15:15
And I'm confident over the medium to long term, that particular asset will do well for my portfolio.
15:21
So-
15:23
You need to understand where your comfort sits, where you want to take opportunity, or whether you want to sit in the sidelines or in the stands for the next couple of years, probably similar to those that did it in COVID.
15:33
And hindsight's always easy to pick, Reece.
15:37
It's like, in hindsight, should have bought more.
15:40
COVID, in hindsight, we would have all bought 10 properties the day COVID had hit.
15:44
But-
15:46
Action is what separates those that have got ahead over the last five years and those who haven't.
15:53
And I think this period of time, the gap between those that do get ahead and significantly ahead and those that, again, sit in the sidelines, sit in the stands, that gap's going to get greater.
16:05
And this is a period of time which really separates them.
16:08
It was easy for the last three years.
16:09
It's now hard.
16:11
So in some respects...
16:15
I see it as a really good opportunity as an investor for me personally.
16:19
Just before we go on to the market update, I just want to get one last piece from yourself regarding the space in general.
16:26
So property investing in general, the buyer's agency space.
16:29
We've mentioned obviously there's been a couple of big fish go under over the last couple of months, a lot of smaller operations as well from the feedback we hear on the ground are no longer trading.
16:38
Yeah.
16:39
Are we now?
16:39
So one thing, look, putting the clients aside who have lost a lot of money because that's terrible.
16:43
No one wants to see that.
16:45
So putting that aside, is this a good thing we're starting to now see, you know, those operations that were after those quick wins that probably wasn't much data or strategy involved?
16:55
spruikers in some senses with some of them.
16:57
Is this a good thing we're going to start to see that sort of level up?
17:00
And the other part of the question is, are we now in the age where sophisticated investors or those that are open to more complex strategies rather than just throwing a dart at a dartboard on a principal place of land, are we going to see those – fuck, that doesn't make sense –
17:17
Throwing a data board anywhere in Australia making money on residential property, are we going to start to see those potentially mum and dad investors disappear and it be more strategy focused?
17:28
The first part of that, is it a good thing that some of these operators are starting to exit out of the industry?
17:36
Put aside the fact that these clients are going to be left out potentially financially and in no direction.
17:44
Every industry needs a reset.
17:45
The financial planning industry had a reset five or six years ago and you can't say the financial planning institute, albeit more complex, is better off because it got rid of some cowboy operators.
18:00
It meant you needed certain qualifications.
18:03
Just increase the bar in terms of the quality needed and the education needed to be a financial planner.
18:09
We need that in the property space.
18:10
We've been pushing that through many channels over the last sort of 10 years because the barriers to entry is so low.
18:17
So this is the reset, I think, that is needed to clear out some of those spruikers, if you like to call them.
18:28
Problem is they typically respawn when the markets are good again and things are back to where they were in a different format or a different umbrella or a different brand later on.
18:39
You're 100% right.
18:40
The mum and dad barbecue investor made 50 grand in the last two months.
18:46
You should do the same.
18:47
Let's put all of our chips into a regional market.
18:50
That sort of operation or that sort of investor.
18:54
will struggle in this new environment post-budget and that's what we're seeing.
18:57
It's going to be more sophisticated money, more educated money, those that really ...
19:04
I can speak to a client this morning that was talking about that once you start to get a portfolio, it becomes more than a hobby.
19:10
You need to be invested.
19:12
You need to be ... You can't just rely on anyone or anything.
19:16
You've got to live and breathe this stuff and that's what the probably listeners of this podcast that have made it this far listening today.
19:24
It's probably why their portfolio looks as good as it does.
19:25
It's because they are invested in their portfolio and they are educated and they're educating themselves, upskilling themselves, learning, tracking data and not leaving it to chance.
19:36
And that's the difference.
19:38
Let's go market around the grounds in the last seven days because there has been some significant movement.
19:42
Before we get into that,
19:44
Quick plug, this will be on PropStack.
19:46
So PropStack is our portal that we've been talking about for the last couple of weeks on the podcast.
19:52
There's a link in the show notes to download PropStack.
19:55
This is our weekly data, which will be on there every week, Monday from our economists, along with some follow-up updates regarding supply, demand, affordability sentiment throughout the week as well.
20:05
So not only have we got the macro and the micro suburb data, but we also have weekly insights coming through.
20:10
All right, Lachlan, let's do a deep dive now into the seven-day turnaround for all the markets.
20:15
We'll cover all of them in one hand.
20:17
I'll get a bit of a deep dive analysis in each single market.
20:20
Looking at Sydney, did 0.32% price decline last week.
20:25
Melbourne, 0.22%.
20:27
Brisbane 0.25%, Adelaide 0.31%, and Perth 0.22%.
20:34
So all of them sitting between 0.22% and 0.32%.
20:37
Pretty consistent, probably the most consistent we've seen decline across the board from all the capital cities.
20:44
Anything that surprised you there?
20:45
No, it's a similar narrative of what we've seen, albeit the severity is a little bit less.
20:51
Every capital city is posting negative...
20:55
price movements.
20:56
Looking at auction clearance rates, they're actually a slight uptick for both Sydney and Melbourne.
21:00
They're the main markets.
21:01
I know everyone talks about Brisbane, but the data's too skewed to kind of have any substance behind it in my opinion.
21:07
Looking at the current auction clearance rates for the last week, 54% for Sydney, 57% for Melbourne.
21:12
So Melbourne was, that's up 2% from the previous week and same with Sydney, up 2% from the previous week.
21:17
So seeing some slight level of improvement there in terms of clearance rates.
21:20
Yeah, and that's been a continuous trend rates if we go back four weeks ago.
21:24
Both Melbourne and Sydney had their worst recorded auction clearance rates for the last two or three years, right?
21:31
So they were both in the 40s.
21:33
So if you look at that trajectory, that is on the incline, albeit very subtle, good to see the auction clearance rates improving, which is a really good demand indicator on these markets.
21:43
Yeah.
21:43
Beautiful.
21:44
Let's jump into the individual markets and just get some commentary from yourself.
21:48
So Sydney there, as I mentioned, 0.32% price decline for the week.
21:53
That is slightly below what the four-week average is.
21:56
So the four-week average is 0.3%.
21:58
So maybe slight positivity, like what you've said there with the auction clearance rates.
22:02
The big one though, looking at the 2026 data is it's
22:07
0.63% for the year.
22:08
And for those that can see this, there's a yearly from Jan 26, a graph showing price increase versus price decline.
22:17
Started the year with some nice, consistent movement.
22:19
It's just had a nice linear or a big drop, I should say, up until about June.
22:24
And now we're starting to see it level out, although- Still declining.
22:28
Still declining.
22:29
So we are starting to see maybe the sharpness of it dropping.
22:33
It's the severity of the decline, still decline.
22:36
There's no sugarcoating that.
22:38
Sydney is still very much in freefall, albeit the severity of that freefall has moderated slightly.
22:45
But there's no positive way to sugarcoat the Sydney market.
22:48
It is struggling.
22:50
But when you look back at the history of the last 40 years, the biggest annual price decline we've seen is 8.2%.
22:56
So it's well and truly on its way to match the sharpest falling house prices on an annual basis, which is fascinating, Rhys, that we're here witnessing this market in free fall.
23:15
It's had 14 consecutive week declines as well.
23:17
Yeah.
23:18
And like I said, I don't see that improving until we get some positive sentiment, which will need to come from a place, I believe, is A, the inflation data, and then passed on to the RBA.
23:33
Looking at Melbourne, as we mentioned earlier, 0.22% decline for the week.
23:39
Again, slightly above its four-week average, which was 0.28%.
23:42
In terms of the 2026, not as severe as Sydney.
23:46
And actually, when you look at the graph here from a decline perspective, it's done negative 5.8% for the year from a macro-level Melbourne.
23:55
In terms of the decline, they didn't have the green shoots at the start of the year like Sydney did.
23:59
It's been in free falling a lot longer.
24:01
However, not as severe.
24:02
There's been only one week that's gone over 0.4% for the week, whereas Sydney's had quite a few through that.
24:08
So same as Sydney starting to, the severity is starting to slow down a little bit.
24:13
Same, how do you see the Melbourne market as opposed to Sydney?
24:16
Can we compare them as a similar speed market or are they at different cycles?
24:22
It's just got different quartiles within their markets moving at completely different speeds.
24:28
That example will be at the Central Coast.
24:30
You're seeing that top tier in both markets fall and fall quite aggressively.
24:35
Sydney falling more dramatic or more of a – Sydney certainly more severe in its market falls.
24:42
But the bottom end of the market sort of – you can't compare the two.
24:45
You've got Melbourne that is consistently now on a week-to-week basis getting –
24:50
positive median house price movement.
24:52
Sydney, however, that first-time investor market, that first-time buyer market is also falling.
24:58
So the difference, if you're going to highlight between Sydney and Melbourne, top, middle, and bottom quartile, both scenarios, both top quartiles, when you look at expensive price points, if you're going to round them up north of $2 million, are struggling and probably the hardest and are factually the hardest impacted markets
25:17
across Australia.
25:18
That middle tier, if you were to look at it, say between one and two million, although it's different in Sydney and Melbourne, just broadly speaking, Sydney's definitely, has been more significantly hit.
25:30
But the entry level, that's sub a million in both markets, are chalk and cheese.
25:34
On the ground, we're hearing there is a little bit of activity in Sydney, albeit look at Melbourne, it's actually getting and posting positive median house price movement.
25:44
So if you look at that one, two, three quartiles, very different markets at that lower end, but both experience at the top end, pretty serious price declines.
25:55
And that medium price point for comparing against markets, there's a big difference between medium price in Sydney versus Melbourne.
26:02
You know, that medium house price is 1.2 mil in Sydney still and Melbourne's below 800K now, so it's 780,000.
26:08
It's the gap between prices between Melbourne and Sydney has never been so significant.
26:14
So you can't compare the two, albeit from a macro level as we see it, headline media will essentially put them under the same umbrella.
26:25
Let's go to Brisbane.
26:26
Mentioned earlier, 0.25% for the week.
26:30
The four-week moving average is 0.14%, so actually gathering at a quicker pace than what it has seen over the last four weeks.
26:37
Medium price is below the $1.1 million at $1.078.
26:40
For the year, though, it's done 4% growth.
26:42
So for those that...
26:43
They can't see.
26:44
It started to have a bit of a decline in May, had a couple of choppy weeks where it was up and down.
26:49
But now we're seeing, you know, for the second consecutive time over the course of the last couple of months, three weeks consecutive negative growth.
26:55
So just to explain that, last three weeks been negative, had a slight uptick than the previous three weeks were negative.
27:00
So in a whole, if you're looking at the last sort of seven or eight weeks, you know, six of those eight weeks have been in negative growth.
27:07
Yeah, Brisbane's one to keep an eye on as it picks up momentum.
27:12
It's the city with the most amount of supply currently and bringing on in terms of the forecast of approvals coming into the system, Brisbane's leading the charge in terms of supply.
27:24
So concerning that you're seeing on the demand side, that's starting to shift, prices starting to fall.
27:31
And they're going to run into a market that's going to be bringing on a lot of supply over the next six to 12 months, particularly in that off-the-plan apartment space.
27:39
We know that Brisbane's notorious for oversupplying units, apartments, that sort of market.
27:45
So yeah, I think I've got my concerns are starting to get larger for Brisbane, more so than any other market at this point.
27:55
And you've mentioned on a previous podcast, the affordability ceiling on Brisbane now has reached its previous peak back in 07, 08 as well.
28:01
So affordability.
28:02
It's got headwinds, right?
28:03
It's got affordability.
28:04
It's past its peak.
28:05
You've got supply coming into the market at extremes.
28:08
When you look at those 1, 2, 300 units at a time or apartments at a time, you've got negative sentiment.
28:15
There's a lot of headwinds that Brisbane are going to face.
28:19
Adelaide, I mentioned earlier, is negative 0.31%.
28:22
The four-week average is 0.1%.
28:24
So, you know, three times as severe as what the four-week average has been.
28:28
Starting to pick up momentum.
28:29
If you look at the last 10 weeks as well, eight of those 10 weeks have had negative price growth with the last two back-to-back hitting at 0.3% as well.
28:36
So, are we going to start to see a bit more momentum with that market?
28:39
It has done 3.6% growth for the year, but that is getting eaten up over the last 10 weeks.
28:43
Yeah, that was when we called out early in the year that my biggest concern in 2026 was the Adelaide market because it has passed its affordability ceiling.
28:52
It's got migration issues now.
28:55
People are exiting Adelaide and South Australia.
28:59
So it is starting to pick up serious momentum in terms of that price fall.
29:04
And let's wrap it up with Perth.
29:05
So Perth, negative 0.22% for the week, which is double what its four-week rolling average was at 0.09.
29:13
Price above a million dollars still here in Perth, but now starting to see some negative growth over the last six weeks or so.
29:20
Obviously, nowhere near the severity of these other markets.
29:23
And when we're saying negative growth, in a lot of those weeks, it was almost stagnant.
29:27
It was 0.05 or 0.07 negative growth.
29:31
But we have started seeing the...
29:33
that slowdown over the last six, seven weeks, up 6.3% for the year, so still the strongest out of all the five cities.
29:41
Is this now a slowdown from affordability standpoint, sentiment?
29:47
Because we know there's still a lack of supply, although the numbers, the listings are increasing in Perth, there still is a lack of supply.
29:52
There is, but we have seen listing numbers double in the last two months, so there is more supply, although still under...
29:59
under supply, there is more supply than there was.
30:01
So that correlated with just general macro sentiment.
30:05
And I think it's the cause of that.
30:07
We know that population growth is still strong, incomes are still high, and there isn't an affordability ceiling.
30:15
So if you look at tailwinds, that's what Perth has for it.
30:17
headwinds is that keeping an eye on the amount of stock available correlated with that affordability if that continues to eat.
30:25
If we were to see another rate rise, it could have some further headwinds.
30:30
It could have some further headwinds, but that's the first time I think it's posted back-to-back negative declines this year.
30:37
So we'll have to keep an eye on the data sets in Perth to
30:41
Full overview of that market's up about 19% over the last 12 months, right?
30:46
So a lot of gaining in the rolling 12-month average.
30:51
To lose a percent of that isn't panic stations, but important that we continue to track the data.
30:56
And still up.
30:58
over 6% for the year as well when all of those markets have been struggling.
31:02
So just around that outlook, obviously the sentiment across the board is pretty low from a property perspective.
31:08
Do you start to see, the big thing we've been speaking about in the podcast for the last six months is this two-speed market.
31:12
You're now starting to say, although not moving the same severity, that there's definitely some are moving at a much quicker pace than others.
31:19
Will we start to see all five markets move into one or do you think it's actually going to be others will pick up speed?
31:25
Others will drop speed and some will actually start getting into some positive growth and it will still always be that two speed, possibly three or four speed economy.
31:32
Yeah, I think the blanket markets either in growth or declines, well gone.
31:38
The choppiness of submarkets within markets is going to get greater.
31:43
There's just too many unknowns, so much uncertainty.
31:47
You've got policy change in terms of what the local state government's...
31:52
So the local governments are working with the state government to try to bring on density policy.
31:57
So knowing your local markets that you're investing in has never become more important because the shift in market movements is going to be dramatic across Australia.
32:08
And so I think it's, like I said, what the budget has done and it's created like a six or seven speed economy in terms of what's happening with prices.
32:17
Just make it much harder for your mum and dad investor to make an informed decision because
32:23
too much information out there.
32:24
And if you don't know the market you're going to invest in on a granular level, on a local level, you're flying blind.
32:30
Thanks for that rundown, Lachlan.
32:31
We've got a big strategy episode coming up on Thursday.
32:33
I haven't done one of those in 10, 12 weeks now as well.
32:36
So make sure you stay tuned for that to understand where the opportunities are for the rest of the year and moving forward.
32:42
You've been listening to the Follier Property Podcast.