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Mark interviews pollster John McLaughlin. · The Mark Simone Show

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Live from the WOR life back studios.
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  Speaker 2: Well you know you see all these fake polls these
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  Speaker 2: media college polls just terrible fake flimsy stupid polls now
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  Speaker 2: the real stuff is behind the scenes it's what the
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  Speaker 2: candidates use the real polls deadly accurate the best pollster
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  Speaker 2: in the world is John McLaughlin and his website is
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  Speaker 2: McLaughlin online.com John McLaughlin how you doing Doing well.
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  Speaker 1: Not getting much sleep. 22 days out from the election. So,
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  Speaker 1: a lot of close races out there.
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  Speaker 2: Would you say, as far as the overall midterms, it's
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  Speaker 2: too close to call right now?
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  Speaker 1: Oh, absolutely. Because even with the bad polls, I mean,
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  Speaker 1: there's a lot of polls out there that are definitely
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  Speaker 1: undercounting Republicans. I mean, just in New York. I mean,
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  Speaker 1: you've got to look at what happened with these college
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  Speaker 1: polls last week. You had Marist poll came out. And
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  Speaker 1: when you go into the internals of demographics, they have 59%
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  Speaker 1: white voters. They have 41 non-whites. They don't break apart
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  Speaker 1: Hispanics or they don't break apart African-Americans. But the actual
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  Speaker 1: turnout four years ago in New York was 76% white.
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  Speaker 1: And if you go to Siena, Siena was, they had
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  Speaker 1: Bruce within nine, like a month ago. And so they
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  Speaker 1: had Bruce. So this poll had Bruce down double digits.
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  Speaker 1: But when you adjust it to what it should be
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  Speaker 1: by race, He's only down 50 to 44. And Emerson
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  Speaker 1: did the same thing with their poll. They come out
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  Speaker 1: with a poll that they text. They don't even use
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  Speaker 1: live interviews. And they had them down double digits. But
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  Speaker 1: if you adjust it by race properly, because they had 62% white,
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  Speaker 1: and they had oversampled the African-Americans, Asians, and Hispanics, and
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  Speaker 1: if you adjust it, it would only be 48, 44.
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  Speaker 1: So what you're seeing nationally and what you're seeing in
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  Speaker 1: New York State is, They try to sandbag us where
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  Speaker 1: they're trying to affect turnout. They know midterms, you don't
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  Speaker 1: get the usual turnout. You get, like in a presidential year,
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  Speaker 1: you got 155 million voters. In New York, you got
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  Speaker 1: 9 million. In a midterm election, in 2022, you got
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  Speaker 1: 112 million voters come out. And in New York, you
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  Speaker 1: had just under 6 million come out. So it's a
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  Speaker 1: turnout game. So if they can convince people that the
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  Speaker 1: Republicans aren't doing as well, What could hurt the donations,
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  Speaker 1: but it's certainly, uh, they're trying to sandbag the voters
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  Speaker 1: into don't come out and vote. Cause your guy's not
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  Speaker 1: going to win. And that's going on with the national
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  Speaker 1: polls and you have, it's a toss up election. You
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  Speaker 1: have nine Senate races that are all considered dead. Even I,
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  Speaker 1: I find it hard to believe that Alaska and Nebraska
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  Speaker 1: and Kansas and Ohio, some of these other states are
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  Speaker 1: going to go for the Democrats because I've worked in
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  Speaker 1: Texas with Tallarico. I mean, the guy disappears. And the
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  Speaker 1: New York Times says it's a close race, but they
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  Speaker 1: only have Trump voters plus seven in their poll. We
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  Speaker 1: won by 14 when I was doing the polling for
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  Speaker 1: President Trump. We won 56 to 42. So somewhere along
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  Speaker 1: the line, they're under polling Trump voters and Republicans in
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  Speaker 1: all these polls. And they're just, you know, but we
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  Speaker 1: know it's a toss up race. And the voters will
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  Speaker 1: come out. I mean, the voters that care about the
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  Speaker 1: election will definitely come out.
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  Speaker 2: You know, it's a fascinating phenomenon. These people, you know,
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  Speaker 2: smart people, you know, your doctor, lawyer, you know, they're
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  Speaker 2: quoting these polls. You could show them how rigged the
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  Speaker 2: metrics are that Republicans are only 23 percent of the sample.
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  Speaker 2: They should be 38 percent. You could show them the
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  Speaker 2: whole thing. The next day they're quoting the polls again.
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  Speaker 2: Nothing changes. What is this phenomenon? They keep believing these polls.
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  Speaker 1: It's the media. I mean, think about it. I mean, more,
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  Speaker 1: you know, you, you say nice things about me polling,
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  Speaker 1: but as long as Donald Trump, you know, is the president, I'll,
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  Speaker 1: I'll accept it because back in 2015, when we met
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  Speaker 1: at Larry Kudlow's house for, for an event, um, you said,
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  Speaker 1: you said, do you think Trump could win? I said, absolutely.
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  Speaker 1: He's going to win. And by the way, you know,
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  Speaker 1: in that election, um, It was like, it was close
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  Speaker 1: if it wasn't for Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, and some of
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  Speaker 1: these other states. We wouldn't have been, I mean, we
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  Speaker 1: won by the electoral vote majority. And then, but in 2024,
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  Speaker 1: we definitely had a campaign where we were focused on
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  Speaker 1: going around the media and through the media directly to
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  Speaker 1: the voters. Like we would, you know, if you went
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  Speaker 1: to a Trump rally, you might get 100,000 people there
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  Speaker 1: in 2024. But everybody that wanted to go sent us
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  Speaker 1: their emails and they sent us their texts, their phones,
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  Speaker 1: cell phones, which meant that we had their information that
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  Speaker 1: we could email or text for free like a million
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  Speaker 1: people and tell them to contact their friends. So you're
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  Speaker 1: reaching millions of people.
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  Speaker 2: Now, just explain that.
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  Speaker 1: And you don't have to deal with the media.
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  Speaker 2: People might not realize one reason he's doing the rallies,
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  Speaker 2: if 30,000 people show up, that's where they get the names, addresses.
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  Speaker 2: That's where they get them registered, make sure they turn out.
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  Speaker 2: So that's kind of the ground game too, right?
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  Speaker 1: Yes, and you tell your friends, and it's a high-tech
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  Speaker 1: game where President Trump, going back to 2016, I remember
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  Speaker 1: telling him on Election Day, it's a dead-even race. Don't
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  Speaker 1: believe these Hillary Locke polls. You need to go on
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  Speaker 1: talk radio here. You need to go to the state.
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  Speaker 1: You need to do these things. And don't quit until
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  Speaker 1: the polls close. And he was able to do that.
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  Speaker 1: I mean, he was reaching millions, tens of millions of
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  Speaker 1: people on Facebook, even on Election Day. So now the
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  Speaker 1: technology is coming even farther. faster and he has his
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  Speaker 1: own true social media and you have uh um you
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  Speaker 1: have things like tiktok and you have other other ways
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  Speaker 1: to get to to voters that uh you know it's
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  Speaker 1: it's uh it's it's instantaneous almost and and and so
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  Speaker 1: it's but you go you go around the media because
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  Speaker 1: I mean, the Media Research Center has done studies where
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  Speaker 1: over 90% of the media we get from the establishment
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  Speaker 1: legacy old blame media is negative. I mean, we did
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  Speaker 1: a poll in June where we asked people if they
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  Speaker 1: approve or disapprove of the ceasefire with Iran, and the
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  Speaker 1: majority of voters did approve of the ceasefire, except if
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  Speaker 1: they watch CNN or MSNBC, they disapproved of a ceasefire
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  Speaker 1: because it was Donald Trump's ceasefire.
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  Speaker 2: Hey, you also have been the pollster for years for
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  Speaker 2: Bibi Netanyahu. People may not realize he's up for re-election.
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  Speaker 2: How does it look for him?
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  Speaker 1: It's very close. In Israeli elections, it's a multi-party system,
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  Speaker 1: so it's very complex in terms of they have 120
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  Speaker 1: members running for the Knesset, and you have to get
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  Speaker 1: a majority of over 60. Four years ago, polls were
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  Speaker 1: dead on, but they didn't We didn't get the majority.
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  Speaker 1: They didn't recognize it in their media polls until the
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  Speaker 1: very end where we were able to win the majority.
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  Speaker 1: I've had closer looks. I've worked for him since 2003.
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  Speaker 1: He's an amazing figure in world history. He's just amazing.
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  Speaker 1: Right now, it's showing the usual where it's a battle
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  Speaker 1: between his party and Yesher, which is a new party
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  Speaker 1: But he's gaining, and the question is, will they do
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  Speaker 1: what they did in 2021, where the opposition tossed in
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  Speaker 1: with the Arab parties to create a majority to get
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  Speaker 1: rid of him? And the fellow Bennett, who's running again now,
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  Speaker 1: his party's not one of the leaders, but it's there.
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  Speaker 1: But he's still in with the opposition, where they may
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  Speaker 1: go back in with the Arab parties to win.
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  Speaker 2: Get Beebe out of there.
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  Speaker 1: But probably won't work. So it's going to be close,
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  Speaker 1: right to the end. You've got two weeks to go
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  Speaker 1: in that election.
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  Speaker 2: Before we run out of time, Bruce Blakeman, tomorrow night's
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  Speaker 2: his debate with Kathy Hochul. Unfortunately, it's on New York One,
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  Speaker 2: which has like 12 viewers. So how does it look
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  Speaker 2: for Bruce Blakeman right now?
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  Speaker 1: It looks good. That's why I mentioned those two polls.
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  Speaker 1: I mean, if they were done accurately, he'd be within
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  Speaker 1: a handful of points. It's someplace between four and six points.
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  Speaker 1: So you can say, so, and that's amazing in a
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  Speaker 1: two-to-one Democrat state. What the difference in New York is,
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  Speaker 1: is that Mayor Mondami and Kathy Hochul, I mean, four
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  Speaker 1: years ago when Hochul was running against Zeldin, people didn't
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  Speaker 1: think they, you know, they were thinking, well, we may
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  Speaker 1: not like her, but she won. Now they know they
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  Speaker 1: don't like her. Her negatives are driving the race, where
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  Speaker 1: in most of the suburbs in our borough, she has
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  Speaker 1: a 60% unfavorable rating. Upstate, I mean, Bruce could win
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  Speaker 1: Erie County, her home county. And Mayor Mondami, she created
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  Speaker 1: this guy. And basically, her and him have a plan
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  Speaker 1: to raise taxes by billions of dollars in New York State.
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  Speaker 1: I mean, they've done that tax on second homes, but
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  Speaker 1: Mondami wants a property tax of 9.5% on all the
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  Speaker 1: homes in New York City, all the real estate in
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  Speaker 1: New York City. They also want to have a Surcharges
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  Speaker 1: on corporations to kill jobs, 2%. They want to have
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  Speaker 1: a surcharge on income tax, they say, above $ 300, 000. They
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  Speaker 1: also want to lower the threshold for the death tax.
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  Speaker 1: This is in the DSA, the Democrat Socialist America platform.
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  Speaker 1: It's unclear whether it's $ 300, 000 or $ 750, 000, but right now
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  Speaker 1: the death tax for states doesn't go into effect until
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  Speaker 1: a multi-million, like $ 7 million level. They want to lower
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  Speaker 1: it to $ 750, 000. So your home, farms, small businesses will
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  Speaker 1: be subject to millionaire's death taxes. I mean, they would
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  Speaker 1: kill New York State. And they're keeping this all secret
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  Speaker 1: until the media. That's why they want to debate in
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  Speaker 1: the closet. All these taxes, all the utility bill increases.
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  Speaker 1: And plus, Mondami wants to shut Rikers Island or release
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  Speaker 1: thousands of more criminals. They want to keep all that
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  Speaker 1: quiet until 22 days from now. And then then then
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  Speaker 1: it'll be like, you know, without Bruce getting elected. There'll
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  Speaker 1: be no check and balance on that.
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  Speaker 2: Well, John McLaughlin, keep up the good work. Everybody go
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: to his website, McLaughlinOnline.com, McLaughlinOnline.com, the world's greatest pollster. John McLaughlin,
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  Speaker 2: thanks for being with us.
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  Speaker 1: Thank you.
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  Speaker 2: All right, take care. Hey, don't forget, coming up at noon,
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  Speaker 2: it's Buck and Clay. Mark Stein, that's who we're trying
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: to think of. Mark Stein was the Rush villain. Buck
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: and Clay at noon today. Three o'clock, you got the
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: most listened to radio show in America, Sean Hannity. Actually,
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: I'll be filling in for Sean later today. You got
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: Jesse Kelly at six. You got the very funny Jimmy Fela,
• 10:51
  Speaker 2: nine to midnight. Don't forget, before I come on, from
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: six to nine, you got Curtis Lewin, Larry Menti, here
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: on 710WOR.