Latest / The Curve / TCW12: Crypto is back in vogue and there's a battle of the sneaker giants

Transcript

TCW12: Crypto is back in vogue and there's a battle of the sneaker giants · The Curve

• 0:00
  We're really excited to have partnered with Audi to bring you the Curve Weekly, a podcast
• 0:05
  that encourages women to work towards driving a more progressive future.
• 0:09
  And if you haven't already, check out our savings calculator at the Curve.co.nz to help
• 0:14
  you reach your savings goals.
• 0:17
  Hi and welcome to the Curve Weekly, the podcast that keeps you up to date with all the money,
• 0:22
  business and stock market tea.
• 0:23
  I know exactly what I needed to do, but it would take money to get there.
• 0:27
  Show me the money!
• 0:29
  For the record, feminism by definition is the belief that men and women should have equal rights
• 0:35
  and opportunities.
• 0:37
  Everyone should experience for us class at least once in their lives in Annie.
• 0:39
  Shouldn't miss out just because she can afford it.
• 0:41
  Help me own poor...
• 0:43
  Last time we recorded the Curve Weekly, I stopped her midway for a sit-up board.
• 0:49
  And I was like, cold, I've just prepped this whole episode and you are bored.
• 0:54
  So, how did you have a good Sunday prepping session?
• 0:57
  Yeah, like we need to get back on the tequila shots before recording.
• 1:01
  A third-year-on-a-month, we can't do that.
• 1:03
  Can we?
• 1:05
  I mean, it would definitely be a bit of...
• 1:07
  I mean, you don't know what I did before this.
• 1:08
  Woo! Oh, God!
• 1:09
  I did turn up to the house, so the studios and VIX house in her spare room.
• 1:14
  It's actually looking quite professional these days.
• 1:17
  We've put the lights up on the walls, and then I'm people that come and they're like,
• 1:21
  oh my God, is this? We have a cure.
• 1:23
  It's like a little famous roof.
• 1:25
  It's starting to look quite good, but I turned up and you were in a good mood today,
• 1:31
  so I wouldn't be surprised if you said, oh, you know, did a little shot before I came in.
• 1:35
  No, it went for a walk, got some fresh air.
• 1:37
  Cute.
• 1:38
  And I had the most chill weekend.
• 1:41
  Yeah, same.
• 1:43
  I just wake up on a Monday feeling so much more human when I haven't had a massive blower.
• 1:48
  Yeah, I think that's probably my opinion.
• 1:50
  I know, but it's more just...
• 1:51
  I think finding the balance between not feeling like you've turned 90 in the weekend,
• 1:57
  and also, but also waking up feeling fresh.
• 2:00
  Like, I've had a...
• 2:01
  I reckon the key for me is, like, under four drinks, and I'll feel okay.
• 2:05
  So you had a relaxed one.
• 2:06
  Yeah, so it's my own feeling fresh and happy.
• 2:10
  So if it comes to the door, she doesn't know what she's going to get.
• 2:12
  She's like, oh, am I going to get, like, tired, or like...
• 2:14
  I actually thought I might put your period in my calendar,
• 2:17
  like, just so I don't know what time of the month to, like, just leave things be, you know?
• 2:22
  Oh, gosh.
• 2:23
  Okay, so what is happening in the curve weekly this week?
• 2:26
  Well, well, we've got a lot going on.
• 2:29
  Yeah, that's good.
• 2:31
  So we had a really good week last week in the stock market in the US,
• 2:34
  so remember, we've had a really good January.
• 2:37
  We had a pretty shit February, and March has kind of been okay.
• 2:41
  So the performance of the stock market to date is up about 4%.
• 2:45
  So if you think, really good, really bad, and then March is kind of okay.
• 2:49
  So, and the NASDAQ, which is the more, you know, high-growth high volatile stock market...
• 2:57
  That's like, addicts.
• 2:58
  All in Microsoft's or letters.
• 3:00
  Yeah.
• 3:00
  That's up 18% for the year.
• 3:03
  Why?
• 3:04
  I know.
• 3:05
  So we sat here and we were like, oh my gosh, it's fallen 30% last year, but now it's
• 3:09
  already up 18.
• 3:10
  So that's why when we say, like, keep investing, like, there's merit to it.
• 3:15
  You know?
• 3:16
  It's like, if you'd pulled your money out at the end of last year because the NASDAQ
• 3:21
  had fallen 30% and then you're like, I'm going to wait for it to rebound.
• 3:23
  You've missed out on that full 18% so it's like, that's why you never know what's going
• 3:27
  to happen.
• 3:28
  So just keep investing.
• 3:29
  I know sometimes I sound like a broken record when I say that, but this is why.
• 3:33
  Well, if we were to get our money out when it's really good, well, that's what you
• 3:37
  IE, if it's up 18% and you were to take it out and then put it somewhere else, because
• 3:43
  otherwise if you are just riding the market all the way up, like for 30 years, for example,
• 3:47
  and you just keep it in there, which I know is what you say is the best strategy, really,
• 3:53
  or in your opinion, however, if it's up that much, wouldn't it make sense to not cash
• 3:58
  in on that high?
• 3:59
  But isn't that kind of...
• 4:00
  So thinking she's going to time the market.
• 4:03
  But 18% it might be, we might be sitting here, I've got to come June, July, and it's up
• 4:10
  40%.
• 4:11
  Do you not like, how do you know that's the top?
• 4:13
  Right.
• 4:14
  Or yes, you might take it out now and it might fall another 18% and go back to where it
• 4:19
  was, but you just have no idea.
• 4:21
  So it's like, I think because I'm starting to get it, like I start, I'm now understanding
• 4:26
  how investing works a bit more.
• 4:28
  Maybe I'm starting to get cocky.
• 4:29
  Yeah.
• 4:30
  I've got this.
• 4:31
  I've got this.
• 4:32
  Oh my god, this is the top of the market.
• 4:35
  But effectively, that's what you should be.
• 4:37
  If you are going to buy and sell shares, you should be buying low, selling high.
• 4:45
  Yes.
• 4:46
  But it's so hard psychologically to when the market is falling or when a share price is falling
• 4:53
  to be invest, keep investing, because you're like, oh gosh, it might fall further.
• 4:58
  Or is there something I don't know or like, you know, I'm missing something.
• 5:02
  And so that's why it's so hard to do.
• 5:04
  But that's what we should be doing.
• 5:05
  The number of times my mum's called me, she's like, oh, the stock market's going down
• 5:09
  share time and money out.
• 5:10
  I'm like, you should be calling me going, the market's falling, should I be putting money
• 5:14
  in.
• 5:15
  You know, like it's, but it's psychologically that it's so hard to, you know, comprehend.
• 5:20
  So that's why we just say, you know what, just keep, just keep investing, I mean, yeah.
• 5:23
  And the Australian market was flat and poor old little New Zealand was down about 2% for
• 5:29
  the week.
• 5:30
  So we had some really, really interesting announcements from Nike.
• 5:34
  Oh, yeah.
• 5:35
  Everyone knows Nike.
• 5:37
  Just do it.
• 5:38
  Far out, mate.
• 5:41
  By the time you actually are mum, your jokes are going to be out of control.
• 5:44
  I know.
• 5:45
  Gosh.
• 5:46
  Oh, I'm trying to make finance interesting, running out of content.
• 5:52
  But no, Nike reported their financial results.
• 5:55
  So usually the retailers were a bit late to the party compared to all the other companies.
• 5:59
  So, you know, we've had the banks, we've had healthcare companies.
• 6:02
  And then now we have like the function, yeah, the retailers really.
• 6:05
  But the key thing that stood out from their result and the reason that their share price
• 6:09
  fell 4% was because they've got a lot of inventory.
• 6:14
  Now inventory is effectively unsold stock.
• 6:16
  So if you think of like sneakers, t-shirts, running shorts, all that kind of stuff,
• 6:22
  that's stuff that's on the shelves or stuff that's in warehouses or distribution centers,
• 6:25
  there hasn't been sold.
• 6:27
  So they've made it and are sitting there waiting for it to be sold.
• 6:30
  So.
• 6:31
  And there's this when stuff starts going on sale.
• 6:32
  Yeah.
• 6:33
  So that's the thing.
• 6:34
  It's like, if you've got too much inventory, you need to get rid of it because it costs
• 6:37
  you to hold that.
• 6:38
  Yeah.
• 6:39
  Therefore if you don't have strong sales or you know, customers buying that stuff, then you're
• 6:45
  going to have to discount it.
• 6:46
  And that's what investors are concerned about because once you have to discount, then
• 6:50
  that affects your profit.
• 6:51
  Right.
• 6:52
  And so is this something that's happening across lots of different industries or is this
• 6:55
  just Nike have bought too many units and now they're, you know, what's the kind of like
• 7:00
  broader look at that?
• 7:01
  Yeah.
• 7:02
  What's all going back to COVID?
• 7:03
  I don't know when we're going to stop talking about COVID, I'm sorry.
• 7:08
  But it's all coming back to the moment.
• 7:11
  When the world shut down, people aren't going to be buying stuff, let's stop producing.
• 7:16
  And then people came out of lockdowns, even during lockdown, people were like, you
• 7:19
  know, I can't do anything, so I'm going to shop online.
• 7:22
  And so there was this mismatch between having enough inventory and supply of stuff to sell
• 7:28
  and then the consumer demand.
• 7:29
  So then Nike overproduced and then now we're like, oh, people are tightening their
• 7:34
  belts.
• 7:35
  We're getting into a recession.
• 7:36
  Also the supply chain getting product from A to B took so long.
• 7:40
  So the demand might have been there, but you might not have the stock.
• 7:44
  And then the stock comes and in the demand side, you know, like it's, fuck I would hate
• 7:47
  to be sorry, telling you really feel I would hate to be like an inventory manager.
• 7:54
  Yeah, well, even a flyer, you know, trying to figure out the units that you need.
• 7:57
  That'd be so hard.
• 7:58
  It's because also if you don't have enough, then your sales aren't there either because
• 8:02
  people go to the stores, go online, that's out of their size.
• 8:05
  They can't find the color they want and they're like, oh, I'll go to any desk or something.
• 8:09
  And so how has this affected the share price?
• 8:11
  So investors are scared.
• 8:14
  So their inventory is up 53% in the last five years.
• 8:17
  And when you say a lot, so their inventory is up 53% in the last three years.
• 8:21
  So they have an amount of inventory that's normal and it's 50% above that right now.
• 8:27
  So investors are scared that if the sales don't come, they're going to have to discount
• 8:32
  and that's going to impact.
• 8:33
  That's huge amount of stock.
• 8:35
  Yeah, you know, in this whole view of a recession coming, people are going to have to tighten
• 8:40
  about.
• 8:41
  And the first thing that you stop spending on is discretionary items, which means, you
• 8:46
  know, cute little lemon pants or like a dress or a sweatshirt, you know, that's why
• 8:52
  the share price fell.
• 8:53
  Also Adidas having the same issue.
• 8:55
  So Adidas is actually listed on the German stock exchange because it's a German company
• 8:59
  isn't it?
• 9:00
  Yeah.
• 9:01
  And so it's share prices in euros and so it's not on the US stock market.
• 9:06
  It's not in the S&P 500 like Nike is.
• 9:08
  But they've got the same issue slightly different but kind of similar with inventory, but it's
• 9:13
  all around there.
• 9:14
  Easy.
• 9:15
  Yes.
• 9:16
  Because they got rid of Kanye West and then it's now in the stock.
• 9:20
  $1.3 billion of easy products to get on.
• 9:24
  Billion Jesus.
• 9:25
  That is Jesus.
• 9:26
  And it's Jesus.
• 9:27
  Jesus.
• 9:28
  Oh my God.
• 9:29
  And you think, I have a guess.
• 9:31
  I know.
• 9:32
  That was bad.
• 9:33
  And it's, yeah, it's like, what do we do with this?
• 9:35
  Do we discount it?
• 9:37
  Because then we're still profiting office.
• 9:40
  Oh, that would be quite dodgy.
• 9:41
  Do we give it to charity?
• 9:43
  But then people are still walking.
• 9:44
  Do we burn it?
• 9:45
  You know, like, what?
• 9:46
  Have you actually thought about burning it?
• 9:47
  Yeah.
• 9:48
  Well, it's like kind of, yeah, I mean, it would be interesting to see what they do.
• 9:52
  So.
• 9:53
  That's a lot of excess product.
• 9:56
  Yes.
• 9:57
  Definitely.
• 9:58
  And Adidas also cut the dividend, which is never a good sign.
• 10:01
  No.
• 10:02
  And this is, they're probably going to have their first loss.
• 10:06
  So their first negative profit in 30 years.
• 10:09
  Yeah.
• 10:10
  I know.
• 10:11
  Not good.
• 10:12
  And so you hear these kind of commentaries of like, oh, Nike's got an inventory problem.
• 10:16
  Adidas is probably going to have its first loss in 30 years.
• 10:18
  And you're thinking, gosh, they've cut their dividend, which means they don't have confidence
• 10:21
  in the future outlook of the company.
• 10:25
  You're kind of like, gosh, things might not be looking as rosy as we first thought.
• 10:29
  You know?
• 10:30
  And you start kind of seeing headlines like this and you kind of paint a picture of like,
• 10:33
  what will the future look like for consumers and for investors and what should I be
• 10:38
  invested in money in?
• 10:39
  So that's kind of why that's interesting.
• 10:40
  We also, sorry.
• 10:41
  I'm going through a pubic there, something.
• 10:44
  It's your voice dropping.
• 10:48
  We also had some movement in Bitcoin.
• 10:52
  Oh, how'd you feel about this, bit?
• 10:54
  Yeah.
• 10:55
  Well, we've invested in Bitcoin.
• 10:56
  We should invest again.
• 10:57
  I actually like pet on the back to me.
• 11:02
  I know it's a time market, but when Bitcoin fell heaps last year, part of me was like,
• 11:08
  you know what?
• 11:09
  We're supposed to be regularly investing in Bitcoin.
• 11:13
  We still had like $2,000.
• 11:14
  I was like, let's have a guess.
• 11:15
  I mean, it's down 60%.
• 11:16
  You know, the probability of it falling in other 60 versus going up 60, it's more likely
• 11:20
  to go up.
• 11:21
  So invested the rest.
• 11:22
  So you invested kind of at the bottom?
• 11:24
  Yeah.
• 11:25
  I'm proud of you.
• 11:26
  Well, I mean, hey, it's been a long time.
• 11:28
  Do you want to share all our thoughts on this?
• 11:31
  Should we combine all our findings?
• 11:33
  I'll voice you later, mate.
• 11:36
  But why has Bitcoin been going, you know, from strengths to strengths this year?
• 11:39
  So we'll remember it fell off a cliff literally last year.
• 11:44
  And then it fell like from, it was $64, sorry, $64,000 for a Bitcoin in November 2021.
• 11:52
  And it's now 27,000.
• 11:54
  So it's still well below what it was.
• 11:59
  But it is up about 60% this year.
• 12:01
  It's climbing back up the cliff.
• 12:03
  It's the first three months of the year.
• 12:04
  It's climbed back up a lot.
• 12:06
  And the one of the reasons is it's been a big beneficiary of all the drama we've had
• 12:10
  with the banks over the last couple years.
• 12:11
  Oh my god, of course, because it's not regulated by banks.
• 12:14
  And people are going, oh my gosh, like if this fiasco and banks are collapsing and, you
• 12:20
  know, people are going to be like, hey, what's the alternative?
• 12:22
  Yeah.
• 12:23
  I think banks are safe anymore.
• 12:25
  And I've, and they're regulated and all this stuff and there's so much, I guess, involvement
• 12:31
  in a bank and hang on, you know what, I'm going to put my money in Bitcoin or in cryptocurrencies
• 12:37
  because they're not associated with banks, all the financial systems.
• 12:41
  Quite interesting to see that.
• 12:43
  So it's kind of, it makes sense.
• 12:46
  And even if it's, that's not happening like that as much, the fact it's all about perception.
• 12:53
  So when you're investing, it's like, okay, what is going to benefit from this drama?
• 12:57
  And you're like, okay, well, cryptocurrencies, big major banks that have really good, you
• 13:03
  know, it's been around Freiber and, you know, have good track records and liquidity and
• 13:09
  all that kind of stuff.
• 13:10
  So it's, yeah, but I mean, you see dramas like this, you see things kind of reshuffle, I
• 13:14
  guess.
• 13:15
  If you haven't listened, we've done a podcast on what happened to, is it SVB?
• 13:18
  Yes.
• 13:19
  SVB.
• 13:20
  SVB.
• 13:21
  SVB.
• 13:22
  SVB.
• 13:23
  Yeah.
• 13:24
  So yeah, if you haven't listened to those, it might be worth understanding how and why
• 13:27
  those banks collapse.
• 13:29
  It was our previous episode, previous two, yeah.
• 13:33
  SVB.
• 13:34
  Yeah.
• 13:35
  SVB.
• 13:36
  Lastly is, we've actually seen, and this is a function of Brexit, is that Paris, it now
• 13:40
  has, is the largest stock exchange in Europe.
• 13:45
  Not London.
• 13:46
  SVB.
• 13:47
  Oh, it was London.
• 13:48
  The size of the Paris Stock Exchange is $3.1 trillion, and London's now $250 billion.
• 13:56
  Well, that's quite exciting, so Paris has been, I mean, not burning, doing like, it's
• 14:00
  just, yeah, fire.
• 14:01
  Yeah.
• 14:02
  Kind of, I guess.
• 14:03
  Yeah, but it's just interesting.
• 14:04
  I know it's a little fun fact that I got excited about, don't know if anyone asked.
• 14:07
  Oh, but hey, I thought I'd share it with you.
• 14:09
  Thank you for sharing, and that's it for the Curve Weekly Monday, the 2017.
• 14:16
  It's been a, it's been a week.
• 14:24
  For like we're gonna blink and be like 60.
• 14:25
  Okay, stop, sorry, we'll cut that there.
• 14:28
  Have a great day.
• 14:31
  Progress is part of Audi's DNA, and as a brand, they're leading the way in premium electric
• 14:36
  mobility with their fully electric Audi eTron range.
• 14:39
  Thank you so much to Audi for sponsoring this podcast, and if you haven't already, check
• 14:44
  out our savings calculator that we've created together to help you reach your savings
• 14:48
  goals.
• 14:49
  It's at thecurve.co.nz.