Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Super Bowl LVI Best Bets

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Super Bowl LVI Best Bets · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

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1:40
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.
1:46
Speaker 1: I am Chad Melman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
1:50
Speaker 1: It is the final podcast before the Super Bowl. We're
1:54
Speaker 1: finally getting there between the Bengals and the Rams. Rams
1:59
Speaker 1: currently four point favorites over the Cincinnati Bengals. I am
2:03
Speaker 1: joined as I am every week as I have been
2:07
Speaker 1: for the entire football season, by my BFF, my companion,
2:12
Speaker 1: Mike and Padre professional better Simon Hunter brother brother. We
2:20
Speaker 1: got one game one side one total to talk about today.
2:28
Speaker 1: Good brother, if you're a family of either of these teams,
2:31
Speaker 1: this is like not the greatest experience of your life.
2:33
Speaker 1: I want to I don't know how people other people's lives,
2:35
Speaker 1: but going on a Super Bowl run, having your team
2:38
Speaker 1: in the Super Bowl, and if you win said Super Bowl,
2:41
Speaker 1: it's seriously one of those moments you will remember the
2:43
Speaker 1: rest of your life, remember every little detail where you were,
2:45
Speaker 1: well you guys did after the Super Bowl, after you
2:47
Speaker 1: won everything. It's it's the best. I'm just so excited
2:50
Speaker 1: for both fan bases and for us gamblers, Chad, we
2:53
Speaker 1: all know this is Uh, this is the biggest betting
2:55
Speaker 1: night of the year in America. So I can't wait. Listen.
2:59
Speaker 1: It's passive, there's no there's no sugarcoating it. With professional
3:04
Speaker 1: betting being the way it is now. With New York
3:05
Speaker 1: having come online, uh, New York in one month in
3:10
Speaker 1: three weeks did more handle than New Jersey had done
3:13
Speaker 1: in three years in a single month. Like, the attention
3:16
Speaker 1: being paid to sports betting right now is bigger than
3:19
Speaker 1: it ever has. We're glad to be a part of
3:22
Speaker 1: the conversation. We're glad to give people that information Simon,
3:26
Speaker 1: You've had two weeks off. You didn't have a game
3:28
Speaker 1: to prep for this past weekend. So tell us how
3:32
Speaker 1: professional Better spends the off week. Do you go anywhere?
3:37
Speaker 1: Do you get together with other professional betters? Is there
3:39
Speaker 1: like a professional Better you know, get away? What happens? Well,
3:43
Speaker 1: you know there are no real off week, so definitely
3:46
Speaker 1: put in the seventy hours, you know, starting Sunday night,
3:50
Speaker 1: working into I would guess Thursday afternoon and made a
3:53
Speaker 1: bunch of bets, got a bunch of stuff done. Then
3:55
Speaker 1: I told you Thursday night, I was gonna see Jackass Forever,
3:57
Speaker 1: which if people are you are into comedy, especially physical comedy,
4:01
Speaker 1: if you've never seen any of the Jackasses, it doesn't matter.
4:04
Speaker 1: It's seriously one of the funniest movies I've seen in
4:07
Speaker 1: a long time. Like literally, I was in tears, which
4:10
Speaker 1: for you boys, good. I'm kind of dead inside, so
4:12
Speaker 1: I rarely laughed really hard. I was dying. It was
4:15
Speaker 1: much needed. Uh went to bed, woke up, flew down
4:19
Speaker 1: to Miami. UM met up with a couple of guys
4:23
Speaker 1: I worked with. They do other sports. UM definitely had
4:26
Speaker 1: a good time with them. Friday night. Saturday was more business.
4:29
Speaker 1: I met with two other groups that I worked with
4:32
Speaker 1: a little bit um like we trade info with them,
4:35
Speaker 1: met with their football guys. A couple of them I
4:37
Speaker 1: haven't met because of COVID, So it's kind of like, uh,
4:41
Speaker 1: kind of like a boring student tie kind of thing.
4:43
Speaker 1: And then once the grown ups are left, the adults,
4:45
Speaker 1: we had a good time Saturday night, and then Sunday
4:48
Speaker 1: it was just more hanging out at a guy's house
4:50
Speaker 1: b s. And then I went and met up with
4:52
Speaker 1: a couple of clients and then I think we've talked
4:54
Speaker 1: about a little bit in the past, and they're probably
4:56
Speaker 1: really talked about this year. Um. A lot of my
4:58
Speaker 1: money I make is off to ips. It's not so
5:00
Speaker 1: much my betting. It's like I bet with the group
5:03
Speaker 1: or the clients or whatever. So when I go on
5:06
Speaker 1: these little trips usually I'm getting some type of money.
5:09
Speaker 1: So I had a couple of runners down there. They're
5:11
Speaker 1: all driving up right now coming back up to New
5:14
Speaker 1: Jersey with some of my cash and other guys cash.
5:16
Speaker 1: Like it's honestly a fun weekend before the Super Bowl weekend,
5:20
Speaker 1: which all these same guys I was just with, They're
5:22
Speaker 1: all going to Vegas they're all going to l A
5:25
Speaker 1: for this game. I'm not doing any of that. I'm
5:27
Speaker 1: so burned out. I've had all my fun this week.
5:30
Speaker 1: I'm more just focused on, you know, getting all my
5:33
Speaker 1: the rest of my bets. And even though I made
5:34
Speaker 1: a bunch of bets and it's just it's more work
5:36
Speaker 1: for me than a lot of older professional guys. This
5:39
Speaker 1: is like that's a vacation. Their season is kind of done.
5:41
Speaker 1: They do bet the super Bowl, but it's like not
5:44
Speaker 1: as like people think it would be. They're not betting
5:46
Speaker 1: a million dollars on the Bengals. That's Mattress Mac, Like,
5:49
Speaker 1: that's not that's not a pro coming in betting that amount.
5:52
Speaker 1: So it is definitely a fun kind of you know,
5:55
Speaker 1: just you recap the whole season, right like, and then
5:58
Speaker 1: all of a sudden, the super Bowl happens. We might
6:00
Speaker 1: read like you said, we'll recap it next week on Monday,
6:02
Speaker 1: and then it's over. It's like you're just onto the
6:04
Speaker 1: next season, You're onto the draft. So it is kind
6:07
Speaker 1: of a world win this last two weeks. I will look,
6:09
Speaker 1: I'm sure when you guys were having your you know,
6:13
Speaker 1: wise guy convention down in Miami, planning for you know,
6:17
Speaker 1: the Invasion of Havana like it was or whatever. We
6:23
Speaker 1: talked a lot about this. Uh, last week, the Bengals
6:26
Speaker 1: open is three and a half point underdogs. Immediately I
6:30
Speaker 1: went to bed at Sunday night when it was three
6:32
Speaker 1: and a half, I was going to bet the Bengals,
6:34
Speaker 1: and almost in the instant between seeing the line at
6:38
Speaker 1: three and a half and then opening the apps that
6:41
Speaker 1: I can bet on in Connecticut, the line jumped to four.
6:45
Speaker 1: So I grabbed the Bengals plus four, thinking nailed it,
6:48
Speaker 1: and yet money kept coming in on the Rams. All
6:52
Speaker 1: of a sudden, the line went to four and a half.
6:55
Speaker 1: So what were you guys talking about when you were
6:58
Speaker 1: down there? Oh? Um? I mean we definitely talked a
7:01
Speaker 1: lot of X and o's about this game, but it
7:03
Speaker 1: was mainly, like you know, sports bettors are and who
7:05
Speaker 1: loves themselves more than a gambler, especially when that got
7:08
Speaker 1: something right. So I would say half of the time
7:10
Speaker 1: they were just guys talking about how right they were
7:12
Speaker 1: about the Rams, because we talked all summer. I just
7:16
Speaker 1: that was something I definitely missed where these pros they
7:19
Speaker 1: read it perfectly like they love the Rams. They love
7:21
Speaker 1: to fit with McVeigh and Stafford. So I would say
7:25
Speaker 1: that was a lot of the talk down there. It
7:27
Speaker 1: was just how right these guys were. And again, we're
7:29
Speaker 1: gonna have a whole off season talk about it. We
7:31
Speaker 1: have the same scenarios coming up this off season. We
7:34
Speaker 1: have again who knows it's gonna happen with Rogers, Who
7:37
Speaker 1: knows what's gonna happen with Kyler Murray, who knows what's
7:39
Speaker 1: gonna happen with Watson. There's gonna be a lot of
7:42
Speaker 1: value in trying to find which team one of these
7:45
Speaker 1: free agent quarterbacks or when these quarterbacks that aren't free
7:47
Speaker 1: agents right to get traded too. So that was honestly
7:49
Speaker 1: the biggest talk down there. Um just talking about all
7:52
Speaker 1: the drama with all the quarterbacks and football, how there's
7:54
Speaker 1: so much value in these nful futures. So that's why
7:57
Speaker 1: I can't wait for Monday. We're definitely gonna touch on that.
7:59
Speaker 1: But for this game, it's honestly shocking how I all
8:03
Speaker 1: the calls I was getting were on the rams um
8:05
Speaker 1: last week, hang out professionals talking with a bunch of
8:08
Speaker 1: different guys, and hear what they're hearing way more than
8:10
Speaker 1: I thought we're gonna be around the Bengals. A lot
8:12
Speaker 1: of a lot of pros do actually really like the Bengals.
8:14
Speaker 1: They look at this team that there was a bye week. Um, again,
8:18
Speaker 1: this is what they're saying, there was a bye week
8:19
Speaker 1: to say, it was, you know, week ten for this
8:21
Speaker 1: Bengals team. Since then, they've been They've been top five
8:24
Speaker 1: in defense and offense almost any metric you can look at.
8:28
Speaker 1: They've just been really good, especially at their efficiency where
8:32
Speaker 1: they give up yards on defense, they don't give up touchdowns.
8:35
Speaker 1: They put up yards on all offense consistently. Like they
8:37
Speaker 1: don't just have a lot of three and outs. They're
8:39
Speaker 1: very you know, they'll get a couple of first downs
8:41
Speaker 1: and then maybe punch or they'll get a couple of
8:43
Speaker 1: first downs in a field goal. That's that's rare where
8:45
Speaker 1: a lot of teams, you know, they'll come out they'll
8:47
Speaker 1: just go three and out. So we've seen just a
8:49
Speaker 1: very balanced team in this Bengals team. I've I've had
8:51
Speaker 1: a lot more pros talk to me about that where
8:54
Speaker 1: I joked with you chat, I like, looked at this line,
8:56
Speaker 1: I thought it should be three. I heard a bunch
8:58
Speaker 1: of pro saying they think it should be six. That's
9:00
Speaker 1: why they liked the Rams, and I was just like,
9:01
Speaker 1: I don't see it, Like I just don't see that
9:03
Speaker 1: with this Rams team. Yes, they're very talented and everything
9:06
Speaker 1: else like that, Like I've seen the status a boy
9:09
Speaker 1: Aaron Donald going up against this offensive line like that's
9:11
Speaker 1: a big advantage. But it was interesting hearing all the
9:15
Speaker 1: pros that were so pro Bengals, because I honestly felt
9:17
Speaker 1: like I was an island last week, Like it felt
9:19
Speaker 1: like no one was taking the Bengals. So, uh, if
9:22
Speaker 1: people really wanted to know who the pros are betting,
9:25
Speaker 1: it's still sewed towards the Rams. More professionals had bet
9:28
Speaker 1: the Rams, but I would say it's more towards like
9:32
Speaker 1: four out of every ten is on the Bengals, where
9:34
Speaker 1: I thought it was gonna be two out of ten.
9:36
Speaker 1: It's it's definitely more than I thought. So I'm feeling
9:39
Speaker 1: better as the week has going on here about this
9:41
Speaker 1: Bengals bet and this Bengals team, Like I'm really starting
9:43
Speaker 1: to like it. Yeah, to be clear, you and I
9:46
Speaker 1: both went in aggressively on the Bengals. Of plus four,
9:52
Speaker 1: I got up to four and a half. You better
9:54
Speaker 1: to get at four and a half, I did not.
9:57
Speaker 1: I think we were thinking if I got to five,
9:59
Speaker 1: we'd probably better at five too. We had Stucky on
10:02
Speaker 1: the podcast last week. Stucky, who co hosts the Action
10:05
Speaker 1: Network podcast with Chris Raybam. He liked the Bengals at
10:10
Speaker 1: plus four. It's the consensus in the Action Network gap.
10:14
Speaker 1: The projection for our models has the Bengals at plus four,
10:19
Speaker 1: but the huge money and the huge tickets are on
10:22
Speaker 1: the Rams, which gives me a little bit of pause.
10:25
Speaker 1: Definitely feel better after hearing you say what you're saying
10:29
Speaker 1: about some of the market coming back in on the Bengals.
10:34
Speaker 1: It's just weird to me that there was so much
10:37
Speaker 1: sort of bias because of their season long opinion on
10:42
Speaker 1: the Rams from professional betters. Given the way the Bengals
10:46
Speaker 1: have shown, like they've had two games that they that
10:50
Speaker 1: were that they lost by more than three points all year,
10:55
Speaker 1: it just doesn't make any sense, like they play these
10:57
Speaker 1: games close and in a game like this We've seen
11:00
Speaker 1: time and time again, Joe Burrow is not a guy
11:02
Speaker 1: who lets a game get out of hand, like he
11:04
Speaker 1: finds a way late in the game to keep it closest.
11:07
Speaker 1: Why I like the Bengals, you know against since against
11:10
Speaker 1: Kansas City at a big number like four isn't a
11:13
Speaker 1: big number, but the Rams to me on Kansas City,
11:17
Speaker 1: so like this makes sense, But you'd agree with the
11:21
Speaker 1: Pros that the littally the only spot you grade higher
11:24
Speaker 1: for the Bengals is the run game. Like Joe Mixon,
11:28
Speaker 1: he's better than k Makers or some name Michelle every
11:31
Speaker 1: other position on the field, you you probably give the
11:33
Speaker 1: favorite to the Rams team. Like again, I get why
11:36
Speaker 1: people are arguing for their Rams. I've like that's that
11:39
Speaker 1: that's fair. Like Joe Burrow, he's incredible, he's very young.
11:43
Speaker 1: Stafford is better at this point in his career, like
11:46
Speaker 1: he's just more proven. The week has going on, I
11:48
Speaker 1: really tried talking myself into the Rams faily because what
11:51
Speaker 1: you've just talked about, it feels like, other than Pros,
11:53
Speaker 1: everyone in the media is on the Bengals. Like it
11:55
Speaker 1: feels like that's the cool thing to do, right, Joe
11:57
Speaker 1: cool take the Bengals. There's something that about it. Luckily,
12:01
Speaker 1: the numbers back it up, because like I hate if
12:03
Speaker 1: I'm just blindly bet and stuff off that, Like I
12:05
Speaker 1: make this line three four and a half four that's
12:07
Speaker 1: good value for this Bengals team. And I don't know
12:10
Speaker 1: if you want to touch on it, jam my favorite thing.
12:11
Speaker 1: We talked every year about it. I love betting Super
12:14
Speaker 1: Bowls adjusted lines. That's just something I've always done. We
12:18
Speaker 1: talk all the time. Nine out of ten Super Bowls
12:20
Speaker 1: do not matter with the spread. So when I look
12:23
Speaker 1: at this line, people are gonna say, do you take
12:25
Speaker 1: the Bengals money line? I do it different. I take
12:27
Speaker 1: a minus two and a half with this Bangas team.
12:29
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna take the four and a half the
12:31
Speaker 1: four with the Bengals, but stead of taking money line,
12:34
Speaker 1: I take the two and a half because historically, never
12:37
Speaker 1: and the fifty five year history of football has a
12:40
Speaker 1: game ever landed on two or one again in the
12:44
Speaker 1: entire history of the Super Bowl. If you've bet either
12:46
Speaker 1: team minus two and a half, you've won that bet
12:49
Speaker 1: because it's never ever ever landed on two or one.
12:52
Speaker 1: I don't know why that is weird. It's a weird
12:55
Speaker 1: stat but someone told me that very early on there, Like,
12:57
Speaker 1: you can take advantage of this because instead of taking
13:00
Speaker 1: angles money line, you know, plus one fifth year plus
13:02
Speaker 1: one sixty, you take the minus two and a half.
13:05
Speaker 1: It's plus two hundred. So this is what you're three
13:08
Speaker 1: of us doing a Super Bowl chat were two and
13:10
Speaker 1: own super Bowls. That means if we've done this every year,
13:13
Speaker 1: again we had better odds um doing it. But if
13:17
Speaker 1: we do this every year, you'd be a plus four
13:19
Speaker 1: hundred plus five hundred doing it. This is one of
13:22
Speaker 1: those where it's like, yeah, eventually it's not gonna work out.
13:24
Speaker 1: A game is gonna land on two or like the
13:27
Speaker 1: adjusted line won't come through, But it just keeps happening
13:30
Speaker 1: like that. The best one that stands up to me
13:31
Speaker 1: is that Chiefs forty Niners game. Do you remember that game?
13:34
Speaker 1: Chiefs n They're down by ten points. This Chiefs team, right,
13:39
Speaker 1: they were favorite in this game. I took the adjusted
13:41
Speaker 1: line of minus six and a half. They are down
13:43
Speaker 1: ten points in the fourth quarter. What odds do you
13:46
Speaker 1: give me a cover in that minus six and a half? Chat? Yeah,
13:50
Speaker 1: if not higher, it's not gonna happen. Fluky ship happened.
13:54
Speaker 1: It did not make sense, But that's the Super Bowl.
13:56
Speaker 1: They score a touchdown, they score another touchdown, they're trying
13:59
Speaker 1: to run the clock out. A busted tackle. Williams takes
14:01
Speaker 1: it down the sideline scores another touchdown, Like, again, did
14:05
Speaker 1: I bet on them scoring twenty one and the fourth quarter? No,
14:08
Speaker 1: but we've just seen the Super Bowl. Weird things happen
14:10
Speaker 1: where these adjusted lines. That's how you can make good
14:13
Speaker 1: value offer. So I know during the season I bet differently,
14:16
Speaker 1: like I don't bet these kind of lines for the
14:18
Speaker 1: super Bowl. It's a very unique game. This is something
14:20
Speaker 1: I try to take advantage of every year and it's
14:23
Speaker 1: really served me well. So if you do think the
14:25
Speaker 1: Bengos gonna way out right, it's scary, I get it,
14:28
Speaker 1: but historic. We've never seen a game land on one
14:30
Speaker 1: or two in the Super Bowl. Take the minus two
14:32
Speaker 1: and a half the game. Usually your lands on three
14:35
Speaker 1: or four, Like those are key numbers in the super Bowl.
14:37
Speaker 1: So I will take issue with one thing you said,
14:41
Speaker 1: which is, yeah, Joe Mixon is better at running back offensively,
14:46
Speaker 1: I I would. I think there's no difference. Like I
14:49
Speaker 1: think Joe Burrow is great. I think Matthew Stafford is great.
14:53
Speaker 1: The degree of difference between them is minimum. I think
14:57
Speaker 1: receiving Jamaar Chase cancels out Cooper Cup. Obviously, Odell is
15:01
Speaker 1: better as a number two than Tyler Boyd and T. Higgins.
15:05
Speaker 1: But I think Tyler Boyd and T. Higgins together are
15:07
Speaker 1: better as a trio than the top three receivers that
15:09
Speaker 1: the Rams have. The real difference for the Rams is
15:12
Speaker 1: on defense, like they their defensive line is just so
15:16
Speaker 1: much better than anything the Bengals have. Uh defensively for sure,
15:20
Speaker 1: but offensively, like the weakness for the Bengals is their
15:23
Speaker 1: offensive line. And you've got three Pro Bowl slash all
15:26
Speaker 1: Pro caliber talents in Leonard Floyd, Aaron Donald, and Von
15:30
Speaker 1: miller Um. That to me is the only reason why
15:34
Speaker 1: people could be favoring the Rams. But to me, that's
15:38
Speaker 1: not worth more than four points with everything else being
15:42
Speaker 1: equal or in the Bengals favor. I feel even better
15:46
Speaker 1: about this game now when I think about it. Roster
15:48
Speaker 1: by roster, yeah, I mean that's all fair. Like maybe
15:51
Speaker 1: I left out safety safety would probably go towards since
15:54
Speaker 1: they are way more healthy that safety position than the
15:57
Speaker 1: Rams are. I think that Joe Burrow hype train, you'll
15:59
Speaker 1: just and sucked in like everyone else. It's like I
16:02
Speaker 1: I went back and watch all the film. The kid
16:05
Speaker 1: made plays. Okay, I'll give him that. He's made plays
16:07
Speaker 1: in every game he's played this playoffs. But people that
16:10
Speaker 1: are like, dude, this guy's top five, Joe Burrow or
16:12
Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes, who's smarter? Who would you rather have? It's like,
16:16
Speaker 1: holy ship, dude, what what are we doing here? But yeah,
16:19
Speaker 1: Joe's high right now, so like, I'm not gonna be
16:21
Speaker 1: too hard on him, but I would still take Stafford
16:24
Speaker 1: over him. That's that's to me, that's still to mantage.
16:26
Speaker 1: But the Joe Burrow factor is why I'm betting this
16:29
Speaker 1: Bengles team. And now a word from FanDuel sports Book
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Speaker 1: go hi, how I think this gram skeet is gonna
18:45
Speaker 1: play out actually embedding rams first half. I like the
18:48
Speaker 1: value on the RAMS first half. It's up to minus three.
18:50
Speaker 1: Now for RAMS first half, hopefully you can shop around
18:53
Speaker 1: finding minus two and a half. But I'm just looking
18:55
Speaker 1: on paper, it's like, Okay, McVeigh choked. Like we did
18:59
Speaker 1: a show with Chris Raybon. He talked about McVeigh. I
19:02
Speaker 1: really did show the last time they played like he showed,
19:05
Speaker 1: So I can't see him coming out slow in this matchup.
19:08
Speaker 1: I think that they have the veteran team in the
19:10
Speaker 1: Rams that all favorites towards them first half, but full game.
19:15
Speaker 1: I really do love this Bengals team where we're like
19:17
Speaker 1: you just talked about you, like all the matchups everything
19:19
Speaker 1: like that. The biggest thing is this team They've been
19:22
Speaker 1: down multiple times this year. Like I went through all
19:25
Speaker 1: their games, Like that's what I've just mainly been doing
19:27
Speaker 1: is going back watching all their games. It is incredible
19:29
Speaker 1: Joe broken do man. Like they'll be down big, He'll
19:34
Speaker 1: be at third and fourteen, third and thirteen and he'll
19:37
Speaker 1: just make the play. And like, again, that's not something
19:39
Speaker 1: you can coach, that's not something you can teach. You're
19:42
Speaker 1: just born with that. And I was shocked that, Like,
19:45
Speaker 1: coming in this anstally was not gonna bet that much
19:47
Speaker 1: on the Super Bowl. I just didn't. I just didn't
19:49
Speaker 1: feel that confident about either team. But as the week
19:52
Speaker 1: is going on, as I ran the more numbers, and
19:53
Speaker 1: it's like, I look at this Bengals team you talked about, you,
19:56
Speaker 1: I feel like four and a half is such a
19:57
Speaker 1: good number, Like that's such a key number two in
19:59
Speaker 1: these Super Bowls where we've seen past history games and
20:03
Speaker 1: gain a lot of games finished seen or just like
20:06
Speaker 1: it's most Super Bowls are either blowouts or three to
20:09
Speaker 1: four point wins. It's like historically you can go through it.
20:12
Speaker 1: It's usually these are very key numbers in this this
20:15
Speaker 1: matchup three and four, So I'm getting four and a half,
20:17
Speaker 1: which to me is a very key number in Super Bowl.
20:20
Speaker 1: I thought so many people ask me this question. Uh,
20:22
Speaker 1: the Action app are world world known app. It says
20:26
Speaker 1: like where the public and like what the public are betting? Right,
20:30
Speaker 1: Like it says how much money and what percentage is
20:32
Speaker 1: being bet right? Yes, that's all sports books, right, Like
20:36
Speaker 1: you're you're pulling from every sports book you can get
20:38
Speaker 1: numbers from. Exactly, that's not one place, that's multiple sources.
20:42
Speaker 1: So that's what I mean. People like we're sometimes we're
20:44
Speaker 1: talking about specific books on our app. That's every book.
20:47
Speaker 1: So like people are like, oh, I just saw this
20:49
Speaker 1: one sports books and your guys app saying it's fifty fifty,
20:52
Speaker 1: like fix your numbers. It's like, no, that's one sports book.
20:55
Speaker 1: We're the Median. So we've seen money and tickets coming
20:59
Speaker 1: in on this Rams team in the app, the numbers dropped,
21:02
Speaker 1: Like Chad just talked about the numbers going from four
21:04
Speaker 1: and a half to four. So we're seeing these pros
21:06
Speaker 1: now this week starting to come and start betting this number.
21:09
Speaker 1: I grabbed that four and half. If you still can't
21:11
Speaker 1: like again, I I like the Bengals this game. I
21:14
Speaker 1: think the Bengals are going to win. Well, well, obviously
21:17
Speaker 1: you're gonna break it all down next week. But when
21:18
Speaker 1: I'm sitting here right now, it's like, I I completely
21:21
Speaker 1: agree with my going in. My instinct was take the Bengals,
21:24
Speaker 1: take the under. Nothing's changed, The only thing has changes.
21:27
Speaker 1: Like rams first half, I still like the under. First half,
21:29
Speaker 1: still like the under. First quarter. I like the full
21:32
Speaker 1: game under. And it's one of these where I really
21:35
Speaker 1: bet live. If it's zero zero at the end of
21:37
Speaker 1: the first quarter, I'll take the over, like the live
21:40
Speaker 1: over of that game, because to me, it's just gonna
21:42
Speaker 1: be such jitterous for both these teams. Like Stafford, this
21:46
Speaker 1: is his first year winning and playing well in the playoffs.
21:49
Speaker 1: Joe Burrows, I know he's lived up to the moment,
21:52
Speaker 1: but like they just gotta think about, like this kid's
21:54
Speaker 1: gonna be twenty years old walking onto that field, No,
21:57
Speaker 1: and he's playing for a legacy, Like damn marine know
22:00
Speaker 1: got to the Super Bowl his rookie year, never got
22:02
Speaker 1: back and that's like he's gonna be hearing that. Stafford's
22:05
Speaker 1: gonna be hearing that. It's like one of these things
22:07
Speaker 1: where this is the moment. So I could just see
22:09
Speaker 1: them being very overwhelmed where That's one of my favorite
22:12
Speaker 1: bets right now is taking that first half under. Uh.
22:14
Speaker 1: Speaking of unders, you and I talked about this last week.
22:18
Speaker 1: We liked the under at forty eight and a half.
22:20
Speaker 1: We thought it would get steamed down even more. It
22:24
Speaker 1: really hasn't. It's still sitting at forty eight and a half.
22:27
Speaker 1: Taking the under, and if you already took it, I
22:29
Speaker 1: would just wait now because the public should bet the
22:31
Speaker 1: over as we get closer to game time, so we
22:34
Speaker 1: could get lucky. You could get up to forty eight.
22:36
Speaker 1: I mean for nine and a half, which is again
22:37
Speaker 1: is another key number, So I just wait. I wouldn't
22:39
Speaker 1: put any more in the forty eight and a half.
22:41
Speaker 1: Um to me, this this will be one of those
22:43
Speaker 1: I think it's gonna moved towards the up just because
22:45
Speaker 1: the public will start betting this week and they usually
22:48
Speaker 1: take overs. I don't think we need to belabor the point. Simon.
22:51
Speaker 1: We like the Bengals plus four, you're bet in the
22:54
Speaker 1: first half Rams minus three. You're bet in the Bengals
22:57
Speaker 1: a dusted line minus two and a half. I've already
23:00
Speaker 1: bet the Bengals plus four. We're gonna wait on the
23:03
Speaker 1: total and see if it gets above, see if it
23:06
Speaker 1: moves a little bit higher before we bet the under again,
23:08
Speaker 1: hoping it ticks up to forty nine. I mean, we
23:10
Speaker 1: got a full menu all of a sudden for a
23:12
Speaker 1: game that, like we weren't so sure about it that
23:14
Speaker 1: we were anxious about last week. We are all in
23:17
Speaker 1: on who Day again. It was more like last week
23:20
Speaker 1: it was like, what am I missing here? I don't
23:21
Speaker 1: get why the pros are bedding the Rams up so much,
23:24
Speaker 1: but I think we know why. Like they have a
23:26
Speaker 1: little bit of a love affair with this Rams team.
23:28
Speaker 1: They've had it all year. I don't know. I think
23:30
Speaker 1: they're overlooking this Bangles team a little bit. So we're
23:32
Speaker 1: happy to take the value chat at four and a
23:34
Speaker 1: half and four. We're not missing anything, Simon. We're just
23:38
Speaker 1: fucking right and we'll find out Sunday For Simon Hunter
23:45
Speaker 1: for Matt Mitchell, Producer extraordinaire, I am Chad Millman. This
23:50
Speaker 1: has been the favorites from the Volume podcast Network, and
23:54
Speaker 1: one quick note for our listeners, be sure to check
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Speaker 1: out the three and Our podcast with John Middlecoff every Monday,
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24:12
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24:29
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24:52
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