Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 3 - 3/18/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 3 - 3/18/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:19
Hello and welcome to episode three of the All Systems Go
0:24
Sports Betting podcast Powered by Rhythm.
0:27
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
0:33
Happy Monday. More importantly, Happy March
0:36
Madness. I know it's March 18th today,
0:38
but the madness is upon us guys. The brackets were unveiled
0:41
yesterday. I'm holding in my hands a
0:44
beautiful printed out bracket and we are going to talk a lot
0:48
of March Madness today. I'm going to Am I going to give
0:49
you official pics today? No, but I think what we should
0:52
do today, what I want to focus on is really getting down our
0:55
March Madness model. Because I think before you even
0:58
start breaking down games, you got to think about how you're
1:00
going to approach March, March Madness, how are you going to
1:02
attack it. This is going to be right up our
1:04
alley because as data-driven betters, obviously we lean so
1:07
much on what the market is telling us, how the market is
1:09
moving, how lines open, how and why they move, looking for
1:13
value, looking for sharp opportunities, whether it's RLM,
1:16
Steam moves, 5050 line moves, all that kind of stuff.
1:19
But I'm going to tell you why when it comes to March Madness,
1:22
kind of like bowl season and college football or, you know,
1:25
NFL playoff Super Bowl, it is a great time to go contrarian and
1:28
bet against the public. So there's going to be 3 main
1:31
strategies that we're going to use here.
1:33
I'm going to break them down all with you today.
1:35
So today, consider it. You know, there's no college
1:38
basketball today. Like, there's not a single game.
1:40
I actually woke up today and said what am I going to write
1:42
about? So I was actually writing about
1:44
the NBA for today for beeson.com.
1:47
So we we do have a three pack today.
1:48
Don't think this is just going to be you know one of those days
1:50
where it's just all homework. But to me it's kind of fun
1:53
homework that can help you win a bit later.
1:55
But think of it as a three pack in terms of our place.
1:58
They have two NBA plays for you. I have one NHL bet for you.
2:02
So we're we'll hit that on the second-half of the pod.
2:04
But really today's pod is all about getting ready for March
2:07
Madness and and they're in kind of thinking through the way to
2:10
attack March Madness because it is different.
2:12
This is one of the most unique times of the year.
2:15
The biggest reason why is it's just a huge public betting
2:18
event. Obviously, we're up to what,
2:19
nearly 40 states of legalized sports betting.
2:22
So just the fact that each year sports betting gets bigger.
2:25
More recreational betters or brand new betters, newbies,
2:28
whatever you want to call them. They enter the market and they
2:30
all want to bet March Madness. Whether it's just filling out a
2:33
bracket, which we will get to in a second.
2:34
I'm going to give you a bunch of tips here to get yourself set up
2:37
to win. Or if it's betting on particular
2:40
games, obviously that's what we're going to focus on.
2:42
Like we have best of both worlds.
2:43
We're filling out brackets. I actually have an article
2:45
coming out for beeson.com on how to create a contrarian bracket,
2:49
so we'll talk about that once it drops.
2:51
There's a very interesting way to approach a contrarian bracket
2:54
in terms of picking your champion 1st and then working
2:56
your way back, whereas everyone else starts on the outside and
2:59
works their way in. So hit on that here.
3:01
Probably coming up tomorrow, because again, the brackets
3:03
don't lock until Thursday. That's when all the craziness
3:05
begins. I'm pretty pumped because
3:07
actually me and four of my best friends are meeting up at The
3:10
MGM Springfield on Sunday, which is one of the three casinos in
3:14
Massachusetts, and we'll be sweating all the games together
3:16
in person. We got a suite.
3:18
It's it's like the like in the hangover when they get not quite
3:20
as nice as that suite in Vegas, but we're getting together and
3:23
we're sweating the game, staying overnight on Sunday.
3:25
So I'm very much looking forward to that.
3:27
But anyway, guys, as I mentioned, 3 pack of bets for
3:29
today. So we got action for tonight.
3:31
Two NBA, one NHL, and they're going to talk a lot of college
3:34
basketball. March Madness strategies
3:37
basically. So let's start off with our
3:40
strategies. I want to mention a few things
3:41
as well. I am going to show you guys how
3:44
to sign up for the Rhythm AI generated bracket.
3:47
Kyle Kuzma. My buddy James Santor is buddies
3:50
with Kyle Kuzma. Kyle Kuzma is doing a Rhythm AI
3:54
data back challenge. So I want to have you guys enter
3:56
the challenge. I'm going to show you how to do
3:58
it. Should be a lot of fun.
4:00
So we're going to talk about how to enter that.
4:01
I'm going to tell you more about rhythm each day, obviously,
4:03
because I'm so honored they are powering this podcast.
4:07
I have had a lot of people ask me just I want to hit some.
4:09
It's a Monday, so you're getting back into swing of things.
4:11
Hope everyone had a great weekend, by the way.
4:13
But there are some other things people been reaching out to me.
4:15
They've been asking about MLB futures.
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I just want to let you know that we will be talking about MLB win
4:20
totals and futures and awards once basically the spring
4:24
training winds down and we get closer to the regular season.
4:26
You know, couple days before regular season starts we'll be
4:29
putting in more futures. Like I'm already holding the D
4:31
backs over 83 1/2. There's a couple others I'm
4:33
looking at, but still you know, Jordan Montgomery Snell, they're
4:36
still out there. There's still some injuries that
4:38
are can take place. So just don't worry.
4:40
We are going to talk MLB futures very shortly here on the all
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systems Gopod. Also the NFL Draft.
4:47
If you guys don't know, I'm a huge NFL draft, NBA draft, even
4:50
NHL draft drafts are one of the great money making opportunities
4:53
because if you pay attention to the odds movement and you kind
4:56
of look at how the market is is kind of moving, that's really
4:59
where you can make some money here.
5:00
So we will talk NFL draft as well.
5:02
There are a ton of NFL draft bets out there.
5:04
I did notice one thing in particular.
5:07
We all know Caleb Williams. Now that Justin Fields has been
5:09
traded to the Steelers which must be nice.
5:11
My Patriots are going with Brissette and a rookie.
5:14
I'd much rather Russell Wilson and and Justin Fields but you
5:16
don't want to hear disgruntled the Patriots fan lying about it.
5:20
I also just finished the dynasty on Apple TV so I I paid 10 bucks
5:23
for a month of Apple so I could watch the Patriots dynasty.
5:26
Maybe I'll tell you my thoughts on that another day and I cancel
5:29
it because I don't want to continue to get charged.
5:31
But anyway, I did notice on the thought process of what are the
5:34
Patriots going to do at #3. Caleb Williams is a huge
5:37
favorite to go. One, I did notice that about a
5:39
month ago I would say prior to the combine it was basically
5:42
Drake May and Jaden Daniels 5050.
5:45
They're both around -110 to go second overall.
5:47
You have seen Jaden Daniels move to become the favorite to go
5:50
second overall. So Jaden Daniels.
5:52
I haven't, I haven't double checked in a few days.
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Maybe he's like -150. I know he's a favorite to go to.
5:57
Drake May looking to go 3. So anyway those are the things
5:59
we're going to talk about. So just those of you who are
6:01
looking for MLB win totals and futures NFL draft talk, don't
6:05
worry, we will talk about it as we get closer and closer to each
6:08
event. Anyway, with all that being said
6:11
you know pulpit chair to the virtual bar, we're going to talk
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March Madness. So the first thing that I want
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to talk about March Madness is our philosophy.
6:19
But before we do that, here's one thing that I am going to
6:22
stress very much and I think it's going to benefit you quite
6:25
a bit. The first thing, and I started
6:27
doing this many years ago, but the first thing you want to do
6:29
is print out a bracket. Now you can do whatever you
6:32
want. You know, all these different,
6:34
you know, ESPNCBS, Yahoo, they all printable brackets print one
6:37
out. The first thing you do before
6:39
you want to fill out any of your brackets is go through each game
6:44
and write down the odds for each game because that's going to
6:47
make you look at things a bit more analytically because you
6:50
got to remember 99% of the betting public is going to bet
6:53
based on seeds. You know, whoever's is the
6:56
higher seed, go with the higher seed because they're the better
6:58
team. They have to win.
6:59
However, we know that March Madness brackets get busted all
7:01
the time. Chalk very, very rarely wins
7:04
out. But I think what you want to do
7:06
in terms of, you know, taking a, you know, print out your
7:08
bracket, take a pen, and just write down the odds next to each
7:12
game. So like I'm going to give you a
7:14
few examples. Here are very fishy numbers like
7:16
One of the early ones that comes to mind for me would be TCU and
7:21
Utah State. Like Utah State is an 8 seed,
7:24
TCU is the 9 seed, but TCU is favored by 3 1/2.
7:28
So I just want to get once you write down all the odds next to
7:31
the favorite, just put your -3 whatever the spread is next to
7:34
the favorite. I think it's just a very simple
7:36
way to make you look at the bracket differently.
7:38
Don't let the bias of seeds and bigger name schools cloud your
7:42
vision. Go off with the betting market
7:44
is doing. Remember these seeds were chosen
7:45
by the committee. They're chosen by humans,
7:48
whereas the odds are generated by the most insane
7:51
supercomputers. Power ratings from the books,
7:53
the efficiency of the sports betting market.
7:55
So that's my first suggestion right down the odds next every
7:57
game. And I'm going to go through a
7:58
few of these that are kind of fishy that just jumped out to me
8:01
from the start. So that's my first suggestion.
8:04
Now couple more suggestions. How do we approach March
8:06
Madness? This is right up my alley,
8:08
because this is my favorite time of year, and the very quick and
8:11
dirty answer here is going contrarian.
8:14
It's a great philosophy. Why?
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Because this is the most heavily bet sporting event of the year
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other than, obviously, the Super Bowl.
8:20
But March Madness? You get recreational betters,
8:22
you get new betters. Newly legalized states are
8:24
coming in for the first time. Even people in your office pool
8:26
who know nothing about college basketball, they're going to
8:29
fill out brackets. The madness isn't just the
8:31
upsets and crazy things happening, but it's also the
8:33
madness of kind of the whole country, you know, getting
8:35
excited about this event, wanting to participate.
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So, long story. Short The market is flooded with
8:40
a lot of recreational money, which is great for us as
8:42
contrarians because we can utilize bet splits and really
8:46
take a contrarian approach, even more so than the regular season.
8:48
So couple stats to back it up. What does that mean going
8:51
contrarian when it comes to March Madness?
8:53
It means leaning on Wheelhouse Place for us Dogs and unders.
8:56
Now if you look at dogs I was looking at over the last five
9:00
March Madnesses, you can go back as long as you want.
9:03
They're pretty consistent here. But over the last five March
9:05
Madnesses, dogs are covering around 54% of the time, 54% ATS.
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Why is that important? Number one, it means that
9:14
they're covering more than they're not and they're making
9:16
money because 52.38% is the break even point assuming -110
9:20
juice. So dogs bark louder in March
9:22
Madness than they do in the regular season.
9:24
So boom, just by taking dogs because the public loves
9:27
favorites and this is the most public event of the year is a
9:30
great way to approach March Madness.
9:33
Secondly, unders. You got to remember when it
9:35
comes to totals, the public doesn't just love favorites for
9:38
the side, they love going over again, March Madness.
9:41
The excitement. You want to see, action you want
9:43
to see back and forth. Scoring you want to see, three
9:45
pointers you want to see, and once.
9:47
So why is that important? Because the public bias toward
9:50
overs comes into play. So public's going to want to bet
9:53
overs on pretty much every game they see to make it fun and
9:56
exciting to root for points. However, if you look at Unders
10:00
in March Madness, they're 58% over the last five March
10:04
Madnesses. So that's even better than dogs.
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Not only do bark, dogs bark loud 54% against the spread, Unders
10:09
are 58% ATS. So we're going to lean on Unders
10:12
as well. Now, the other thing I want to
10:15
mention, just from a very obvious standpoint of dogs and
10:17
Unders are three different approaches.
10:20
So when we're going contrarian, one basic approach is leaning on
10:25
dogs and Unders, but really focusing on the bet splits.
10:27
So vsn.com which I continue to write for VSN and a lot of
10:31
people have asked me about that. Still a writer, Veeson, I would
10:34
highly recommend getting access to the Veeson DraftKings odds
10:38
coming directly from DraftKings. Now a lot of people say hey
10:40
there, DraftKings is a public book yadda yadda.
10:43
That's a good thing because it's going to reflect where the
10:45
public's at. So just from a bet split
10:47
standpoint, draw, draw a line in the scene at 50%, obviously we
10:50
want to be sub 50. So if the under is getting 47%,
10:55
if the dog's getting 46% that's a good starting point but you
10:58
want to go even further. So really the line of
11:00
demarcation to me is at least 6040 or 6535.
11:05
We're looking for dogs that are getting less than 40%, less than
11:08
35% of tickets. That way we can bet against the
11:10
public. We're looking at Unders that are
11:12
getting less than 40%, less than 35%.
11:15
This is, that's just the basic way to not just take every dog
11:18
and under because there are trendy dogs.
11:19
And I'm going to give you a few here to keep an eye out for, but
11:22
that is from a data perspective, how to go contrarian looking at
11:25
the data, looking at the percentages.
11:27
Seeing how they're they're stacking up and when the public
11:29
is all over one side or the over here, we want to go the other
11:33
way. Second one is just a classic way
11:36
to identify sharp action. Looking for classic sharp line
11:39
moves. 70% of bets are on Team A, yet team A falls from -5 to
11:44
-4. Classic.
11:45
Reverse line movement, 70% of bets are on the over, yet the
11:48
total falls 150 to 148 1/2. So that doesn't change during
11:52
March Madness. The classic sharp angle here,
11:56
whether it is a reverse line move, steam move, 5050 line
12:00
move, dog to fave line move, I'm going to give you a couple of
12:02
those already. That's another way to attack
12:03
March bad. So that doesn't change.
12:05
And again, I think one thing that I always try to stress on
12:08
the all systems go pod is, you know, it's not enough to only be
12:10
contrarian, you got involved sharp action as well.
12:13
But in this case, this is really the best time to go contrarian
12:16
because you have such public bias here flooding the market.
12:19
So one is contrarian, using bet splits, taking unpopular teams
12:23
and unders and dogs. Two is classic line moves, sharp
12:26
line moves, RLM and the other sharp indicators.
12:29
They're also low bets, higher dollars, bet discrepancies.
12:32
Maybe a team's getting 35% bets but 52% of the money.
12:36
That's another sharp indicator here.
12:37
But here's the third one that I want to put a lot of lot of
12:40
stock into. Ken Palm discrepancies and
12:43
inflated lines. So let's start with Ken Palm
12:46
discrepancies. Ken Palm, as we know is a
12:48
fantastic resource for college basketball all about the
12:51
analytics. You even have the coaches
12:52
mentioned Ken Palm. I saw a couple coaches
12:54
complaining they didn't make the the tournament and they're
12:57
saying, oh, Ken Palm had us, you know, 25th ranked or whatever.
12:59
So Ken Palm, he's fantastic. So what I'm talking about for
13:03
Ken Palm discrepancies is ideally we have a contrarian
13:06
edge with a Ken Palm discrepancy.
13:08
So maybe you don't have sharp line movement, but let's just
13:10
say a dog is getting 35% of bets.
13:14
Ken Palm has them losing, has them losing by let's say 4
13:17
points and we're getting a + 5 1/2.
13:20
That right there would be maybe not a sharp play but a value
13:23
play. So those are the value plays
13:25
that I'm looking for. If Ken Palm has basically a
13:28
better or we can find an edge in the betting market based upon
13:31
the Ken Palm projection, I should that's kind of a better
13:33
way to say it that's we're going to look for.
13:35
So as long as we're getting less than half the tickets in a Ken
13:38
Palm Edge, that's going to be a way to attack the market again.
13:41
Maybe a a dog is, you know, plus four Ken Palm's got him losing
13:45
by. Three or two or?
13:47
One, and they're only getting 28% of bets.
13:49
Boom. That's another way to take
13:50
advantage. So aside from Kenpom
13:52
discrepancies, also inflated lines.
13:55
Now inflated lines are very interesting because inflated
13:57
lines to me, what you're trying to do is sit back, wait, wait,
14:01
wait, let this massive, you know, public, you know, love for
14:05
a team go as high as it can go and then you want to buy low and
14:08
take that inflated number. So I'll give you an example.
14:10
Let's say a big team opens as a 7 point favorite.
14:15
They're getting 90% of bets. They move from -7 to -9.
14:19
Now you're with the line move if you want to go the favorite
14:22
there, but you're also with the public and you're getting the
14:23
worst of the number. So in situations like that, the
14:26
inflated dog would be to take that dog +9.
14:29
So the key with inflated lines is let them go as high as
14:32
they'll go, and then you really want to pounce on ideally the
14:35
high watermark of the number. So in that case, you know, maybe
14:38
Ken Palm has a dog losing by 7. They open at 7:00, they close at
14:42
+9. That would be a Ken Palm.
14:45
Edge has them losing by 7. They're contrarian and we have
14:47
an inflated line off the opener of nine, So that's another way
14:50
to look at it. So basically again, and I don't
14:52
want everyone to think like you got to master this all on
14:54
today's pod, but I just want to get your brain thinking about
14:56
how to approach March Madness contrarian with unpopular dogs
15:00
and unders and and sharp bet splits, classic sharp line
15:04
moves, kenpong discrepancies and inflated lines.
15:07
Now the other thing I want to kind of mention is, you know,
15:10
when to place your bet because this is an internal, eternal
15:13
conundrum. You know, I think really within
15:15
sports betting, it's not just about what side you like or what
15:18
side of the spread or total or or whatever.
15:20
It's when you place your bet. Because the key to me when it
15:25
comes to going contrarian and betting against the public is
15:27
you got to remember, people are so excited about March Madness.
15:31
I know we have a couple playing or the first four games over the
15:34
next couple days, but March Madness doesn't start till
15:36
Thursday. So these lines are up.
15:39
You know, they they got posted yesterday on, you know, late
15:41
Sunday selection. So show Sunday and they're going
15:44
to be up for, you know, what is that four days, You know, almost
15:48
five days. So in that regard, really, we
15:52
want to let the, the media pound the public into submission.
15:55
So what does that mean? It means that, you know, when
15:57
you're watching ESPN and they have, they're going to talk
16:01
about ad nauseam, you know, this, this 12 seed, it's going
16:04
to upset the five. You know, you have trendy picks.
16:06
You have, oh, this team's going to win it all.
16:08
Basically you want to avoid the media bias but let the media
16:12
create narratives in the public so that they they, they, you
16:14
know, kind of fall in love with something that they keep
16:16
hearing. So basically the longer we wait
16:20
because I don't fill out my brackets until literally, like
16:23
you know, the last minute on Thursday.
16:24
And I also don't make my picks until ideally as close as
16:28
possible to to to game day because you want to let the
16:31
public have their say, you want the bets to build and you want
16:34
these lines to get pounded by public bias.
16:37
So keep that in mind. So long story and people were
16:40
you know DM ING me. I was tweeting out a couple
16:41
things yesterday, the bracket and the championship odds, and
16:45
they're like, oh, who do you like?
16:46
Who? You know?
16:46
I'm like, I don't know yet because I need to let kind of
16:49
the market, you know? Kind of.
16:50
Kind of. You know, move and and and do
16:52
its thing for a bit. Let it mature until obviously a
16:56
few days from now because, you know, percentages can change,
16:58
but also you want the public to really show their hand in terms
17:01
of of who they love and then we're going to go the other way.
17:04
One thing I do want to mention too is that, you know, the
17:06
beauty of kind of being a college basketball better is
17:09
that, you know, we're not just March Madness guys.
17:11
March Madness is the main, the main event, the entree.
17:14
But we're going to bet the CBI and we're going to bet the NIT.
17:17
So on a daily basis, even starting with tomorrow, we're
17:19
going to get NIT games. We're going to bet them.
17:22
So it's not just March Madness, but this is time to clean up in
17:25
CBI and NIT and a lot of people like, hey, you know, why touch
17:29
CBINIT? It's meaningless focus on March
17:31
Madness. No, there's a lot of value to be
17:33
had in CBINIT. You got to remember pros,
17:35
they're going to hit these smaller tournaments.
17:38
They don't care if it's, you know, huge or not with the
17:40
public, they're going to bet based on their numbers and we're
17:42
going to really take advantage as well.
17:43
So I'll give you 2 little Nuggets here when it comes to
17:46
the CBI. Since 2017 overs and the CBI are
17:50
63%. So right there, an edge to
17:53
higher scoring games, less defense.
17:55
Maybe the stakes aren't as high, maybe you don't care as much NIT
17:58
home teams. NIT plays home games here at
18:01
your at your legit home court. NIT home teams are 70% straight
18:06
up over the last decade. So boom, there are little, there
18:09
are these little edges and I got a million more of them for you.
18:11
But these little things we can take advantage because you got
18:13
to remember each tournament is different.
18:15
CBINIT, we're not going to, you know, basically lean as much
18:18
into contrarian because these are much less heavily bet than
18:22
the regular March Madness tournament.
18:24
So there are different ways to attack, but I just want to let
18:25
you know we're going to bet on them all.
18:27
So with all that being said, I know we're talking in
18:29
generalities, but I want to get kind of our model down.
18:32
Now let's have some fun. I want to highlight a few games
18:34
here that caught my eye that I think hopefully we can we can
18:38
take advantage of. So first one that caught my eye
18:40
is Boise State and Colorado. Now this is going to be played
18:45
on Wednesday the 20th Boise State and Colorado is a playing
18:49
game, one of the first four, it's fighting for the 10 seed.
18:53
But one thing we have noticed or at least I've noticed is a
18:57
contrarian opportunity. So now we're layering in what
19:01
kind of the different, you know, approaches we talked about to
19:03
start the pod with a good Ken Palm edge and right now I'm
19:06
looking at Boise State here, guys.
19:08
So give an example why Boise has caught my eye.
19:10
One is that Boise State is getting 2 1/2.
19:14
So their dog, you know, dogs good, good time to bet dogs.
19:18
They're only getting 20% of spread bets right now.
19:20
So I know it's early, but everyone and their mother is on
19:22
Colorado. So just from a contrarian dog
19:25
standpoint, Boise interests me. Here's where it gets good.
19:29
Ken Palm has Boise State losing by one.
19:31
One point, only one point. So what I'm getting at is Boise
19:35
State's, you know, making checking off some boxes for me.
19:37
You're super contrarian. Ken Palm's only got them losing
19:40
by one and they're an unpopular dog and we can get a 2 1/2.
19:43
Now I'm going to sit back and I'm going to hope for a three.
19:45
Like, I want to let the love for Colorado build over the next
19:48
couple days. And can we get a + 3 on Boise
19:50
State? That's one that just jumped out
19:52
to me. Next one that jumped out to me.
19:54
Drake against Washington State. Now I'm a little wary of Drake
19:58
because they are a popular bet here.
20:00
They're getting 72% of bets right now at DraftKings.
20:03
Well, they're getting 93% of the money and I did notice a dog to
20:06
fave line move on Drake. So Drake actually opened getting
20:10
a point and 1/2 or a point and now they flip to -1, 1/2, even
20:15
see one one book at -2. So that's something to keep an
20:18
eye out for dog to fave line move as well as I think Ken Palm
20:22
actually has. Let me double check here because
20:25
I want to say let me just find it for you.
20:28
This is on the 21st. So he has Washington state
20:32
winning by 1:00. So this is the, you know, this
20:34
can be a little complicated. You could say Washington State
20:37
getting one now is, you know that's a value play if you can
20:41
get them plus 1 1/2. But that's a dog to fave line
20:43
move. That jumped out to me.
20:44
That just tells me that as soon as this line open, pros said,
20:47
hey, we got Drake favored in this one.
20:48
So let's hit Drake. So am I sold on Drake right now?
20:51
No. But they do have a pretty good
20:53
bet. Split low bets, higher dollars.
20:54
I just don't like that they're public and Ken Palm again does
20:57
have them losing by one, but these are the things you just
20:58
want to look out for. And again, today is a homework
21:01
day so you don't have to bet these.
21:02
Now you just have to be aware of these games that maybe have have
21:06
an opportunity for some value. Next one that I noticed, South
21:10
Carolina. South Carolina is playing
21:15
Oregon. This game was basically a pick
21:17
em opener and we've now flipped to South Carolina -1 1/2.
21:23
So this one's notable to me because Ken Palm does have South
21:25
Carolina winning by 1:00 and it's a 5050 bet split.
21:28
You know, in a vacuum of 5050 split shouldn't move at all.
21:31
Yet the line is going to South Carolina.
21:34
So South Carolina caught my eye a little bit there, a 5050 line
21:37
move. I mentioned this one earlier,
21:39
but TCU, this one is really fishy because Publix 5050 down
21:43
the middle, but TCU at one point, I think they're -3,
21:47
they're up to 3 1/2. And if you look at we mentioned
21:51
earlier those fishy seeds, TCU was a nine, Utah State is an 8.
21:55
So shouldn't 8 be favored over 9?
21:57
Why is the 9 favored by 3 1/2? So TCU caught my eye a little
22:02
bit. Now I'm considering maybe money
22:03
line play TCU, you know, -160 ish.
22:07
But again, we're trying to check off boxes and look at, you know,
22:10
games or or teams that could fit our criteria.
22:13
Now one thing that I want to really stress here is we love
22:15
our dogs. We love our unpopular, gross
22:18
contrarian dogs. You know, we don't like, we
22:20
don't like trendy dogs. So trendy dogs, there's a lot of
22:23
them here. You want to be careful.
22:24
These are the ones that I think the important thing is, you
22:26
know, dogs and unders. March Madness, but not if
22:29
they're popular. So I'm going to give you a few
22:30
examples here. Saint Mary's Saint Mary's is
22:34
playing Grand Canyon. I I was watching the CBS
22:37
special. It was the coach of Villanova,
22:40
Jay Wright. And I forgot the guy next to
22:42
him. He's a popular guy or whatever,
22:44
but he immediately. Said I got.
22:45
Grand Canyon going to the Sweet 16?
22:48
Well, that's the other thing about right now it's all about
22:50
hot takes and you know crazy things that's that's get what
22:53
gets clicks and media attention. I'm like, OK, all right so
22:56
planting that seat in the public that upset here.
22:59
However, if you look at the splits right now Grand Canyon is
23:02
getting 76% of bets, but the lines going to Saint Mary's.
23:06
Saint Mary's opened -4, 1/2, -, 5.
23:09
Now they're up to 5 1/2 even though Saint Mary's is only
23:11
getting 24% of bets. So right off the bat Grand
23:14
Canyon right there is a trendy dog.
23:16
Now Ken Palm does have Saint Mary's winning by 4, so laying a
23:20
5 1/2 isn't great value, but that would at least tell me that
23:22
hey, I'm not taking Grand Canyon.
23:24
Lions going to Saint Mary's and Grand Canyon is way too trendy.
23:27
They're getting 7076% of bets. Next one, James Madison in
23:32
Wisconsin, the same guy on that CBS Sports show, he said I got
23:35
James Madison going to the he didn't say final four Elite 8 or
23:39
he said something crazy. But same thing here.
23:41
James Madison is a very trendy dog.
23:45
James Madison is getting 79% of bets, but Wisconsin has the line
23:50
move in their favor. Wisconsin open -4 1/2.
23:52
Wisconsin's up to -5 1/2. Why is line going to Wisconsin
23:56
if James Madison is a very popular dog?
23:59
Well, tells me that's a trendy dog to fate.
24:01
So Wisconsin caught my eye. Ken Palm hasn't favored winning
24:04
by 5. This one.
24:06
I'm tempted to bet now because it's the biggest edge that I've
24:08
noticed. San Diego State.
24:11
San Diego State is playing UAB. San Diego State opened at -6,
24:15
they're up to -7. Ken Palm has them winning by 9
24:20
and currently all the public is going with UAB.
24:22
So UAB is getting 78% of bets Publix on UAB upset city.
24:28
Yet San Diego State is super contrarian and the lines moving
24:31
in their favor and Ken Palm's got him by 9:00.
24:33
So I was hoping to still find a 6 1/2 and it went to seven
24:37
today. But if San Diego State, you can
24:38
still find a 6 1/2 man, that's a very sharp contrarian favorite
24:43
there with a good reverse line move.
24:45
So San Diego State caught my eye.
24:47
Texas Tech caught my eye. They're playing NC State.
24:50
Now, this one's a little complicated because the line did
24:52
fall a bit toward NC State. Texas Tech opened pretty much -5
24:57
1/2 -, 5. But the public's over NC State.
25:02
Remember, they they won the ACACC tournament.
25:05
They were incredible. No one expect them to win it,
25:09
but they are getting 73% of bets now Ken Palm does have Texas
25:16
Tech winning by 4. So if this continues to fall
25:19
maybe you buy low on Texas Tech. But again NC State getting a dog
25:23
getting 70. What did I say 73%?
25:26
No I'm not touching that. If anything that's a Texas Tech
25:29
play to me. So the whole point of this
25:30
exercise, guys is identify trendy dogs either want to fade
25:34
or just don't touch. And don't bet like try trying to
25:37
avoid pitfalls. And then Gonzaga.
25:40
Gonzaga caught my eye. Gonzaga's playing McNeese.
25:42
State that same CBS selection selection Sunday show I watched
25:47
Another guy was like, I got McNeese beating Gonzaga go one
25:50
of the lead 8. So McNeese, you know again,
25:53
maybe these things happen. Maybe I'm the idiot.
25:54
Maybe they're the expert. But again, media narratives and
25:57
playing the market. Right now Gonzaga is only
26:00
getting 32% of bets, but Gonzaga opened -6.
26:06
A lot of books are up to 6 1/2. This line's going to Gonzaga
26:09
even though Publix, Oliver Mcnee State.
26:10
Now Ken Pommel does have Gonzaga winning by 6 points.
26:14
So again, these are the trendy dogs to be basically be wary of
26:18
or look to fade and and bet the other way.
26:22
So Gonzaga, Texas Tech, San Diego State, Wisconsin, St.
26:25
Mary's, those would be the contrarian favorites to look
26:27
toward and then their opponents will be the ones that you want
26:29
to fade. So again, just doing our
26:32
research, looking at some some opportunities here on ways to
26:35
attack March Madness. That is the goal.
26:38
So we did our homework. We ate our vegetables.
26:41
Now let's go to the main course. We got some sweats here for
26:43
tonight, guys. I want to hit on a few of them
26:45
with you. Let's go to the NBA.
26:47
So I got a couple bets in the NBA.
26:49
First one I'm going to go with, I'm going to take the points
26:52
with the Miami Heat. The Miami Heat are on the road
26:55
at the Philadelphia 76ers and I'm going Miami Heat +2.
26:59
Now there's a couple twos out there gift and a curse because
27:02
there are a bunch of books getting down to 1 1/2.
27:05
You can still find a 2. That's great.
27:07
If you can only get a 1 1/2, you could maybe wait it out, but you
27:10
don't want to see go to once. Maybe just grab the 1 1/2.
27:12
But I like this spot toward the Miami Heat.
27:14
This is a really sharp reverse line move.
27:16
So both these teams are 37 and 30.
27:19
But if you look at the way the line is moving, 67% of bets on
27:24
76ers. Yet the 76ers open -3, they're
27:27
down to -2, and now they're going to 1 1/2.
27:29
So it's pretty clear here that the Publix on the Sixers get the
27:32
lines going to the Heat. Now the Heat have a great bet
27:35
split. They're only getting 33% of
27:37
spread bets, but 64% of spread dollars.
27:40
So basically only 1/3 of bets. But 2/3 of the money tells us
27:43
the bigger, sharper wagers are on the Heat.
27:45
Also, all three refs tonight, Bill Kennedy, Sean Wright,
27:47
Matthew Myers, all Rd. refs with Rd. teams covering 51 to 53% of
27:52
the time. The Heat are two and O against
27:54
the Sixers this year. They beat him 119 to 113.
27:57
They beat him one O 9 to one O 4.
28:00
I think a big part of this line move, and it is a back-to-back
28:02
against Miami or for Miami, which I don't love.
28:06
But Jimmy Butler didn't play last night and based on the line
28:08
move, it looks like Jimmy Butler could be playing.
28:10
So that's a good thing. And Tobias Harris is
28:13
questionable for the Sixers. Maybe he doesn't play.
28:15
So maybe part of this line move is not just a head to head for
28:17
the Heat, you know, having the Sixers number.
28:21
Hopefully that continues but also the fact that you have some
28:23
injuries that maybe are favoring Heat and going against the
28:26
Sixers. Now I did see a line move to the
28:28
under maybe get another low scoring game.
28:30
This was 212 got down to two O 9.
28:32
Now I see two O 8 1/2 and Miami is the number one under team in
28:37
the NBA. They're 43 and 24 to the under
28:39
64%. But I'm taking the points here
28:41
guys. This is kind of Miami's time of
28:43
year late in the season. Sixers no embied.
28:46
I like the heat in this spot. I took the Miami Heat +2.
28:49
Keep on cruising. Next bet four in the NBA.
28:52
T Wolves and the Jazz. 9:00 game here tonight.
28:56
Now I was intrigued by the Jazz in the points because everyone's
28:59
betting the T Wolves and yet the line fell to the Jazz plus 7 1/2
29:02
down to 6 1/2. But I am going to go with the
29:04
over here. My plan this one is over 223
29:08
1/2. Now this total open 221 1/2 it's
29:10
bet up to 223 1/2. You should get Lori marketing
29:14
back here hopefully tonight and we have seen this total rise but
29:18
also really good bet split 52% of bets but 72% of the money is
29:23
going with the over and again has risen 220 or 221 1/2 at one
29:27
point up to 223 1/2 I see some juice like maybe it goes to 224.
29:32
You'd love to lock in that over 223 1/2 and then see it rise.
29:35
It's kind of weird these teams just played each other.
29:37
It was a 119 to 100 game on Saturday.
29:40
So both games are in Utah. But again getting marking him
29:42
back hopefully will boost that offense and hopefully keep it
29:46
close like I'm rooting. I was close on the Jazz and the
29:47
points, but I just said hey, I feel better about the over but
29:51
also the in terms of the over, the Jazz are 37 and 29 to the
29:55
over this year. That's the second best over team
29:57
in the NBA. Only the Thunder are better and
30:00
the Jazz are 29th and defensive efficiency.
30:03
So I'm looking for some points here.
30:05
Again, they just played each other over the weekend, but even
30:08
though we've seen this line dip to the Jazz a bit, I feel more
30:11
confident in the over. So I'm going over 223 1/2 T
30:15
Wolves and Jazz. Then last part of the day for
30:18
you on episode three of the ASG Pod, let's go to the NHL.
30:23
I'm looking at an over, I'm going Washington Capitals,
30:26
Calgary Flames over six, I got over six at -115.
30:32
Now couple things to like about this over.
30:34
First off juice movement to the over.
30:36
You know I saw some totals that are 5 1/2 up to six.
30:39
I saw some sixes that were basically you know basically
30:42
even to the over and now it's over -115.
30:45
So juice movement to that over, which is good to see.
30:49
You also look at the percentages here.
30:52
Only about 60% bets, but nearly 70% of the money is going with
30:55
the Caps and Flames over. If you look at the goaltenders
30:59
here, both kind of backup guys lingering.
31:01
He's been decent 2.61 goals against against Wolf who has a
31:06
3.14 goals against. He's a rookie.
31:08
So this isn't you know like like I don't know Mark Strom against
31:13
Darcy Kemper. You got couple backups in this
31:15
spot. What I also like is both teams
31:18
aren't very good defensively. They're both bottom half of the
31:21
NHL and goals allowed. Washington's given up 3.1 a
31:24
game. Calgary's giving up 3.2.
31:26
The Flames are the second best over team in the NHL, 38 and 27
31:31
to the over nearly 60%. Only the aisles are better to
31:34
the over. If you dig a little deeper, both
31:36
these teams since the All Star Break have pretty good offense.
31:40
The All Star Since the All Star Break Capitals are averaging
31:42
nearly 3.2 goals a game. They're nearly 30% on the power
31:45
play and Calgary is averaging almost 3.5 goals per game since
31:49
the All Star break. The other thing is Calgary
31:52
Flames have also taken a big hit defensively.
31:55
Noah Hannifin, they traded away Tanev Lindholm.
31:58
So you have a couple D gone really good checking or really
32:02
good defensive forward and Lindholm gone.
32:04
Their defense has really taken a step back since the trade
32:06
deadline and the Washington Caps are getting healthier.
32:10
They were kind of sellers at the deadline but they have TJ Oshie
32:13
back and Ovechkin's playing better as of late also.
32:16
So yeah it all up guys. Offenses are looking pretty
32:19
decent. The goaltending questionable.
32:22
They're both scoring and giving up a lot recently of Flames
32:25
second best over team in the NHL.
32:27
I'm going over 6. Washington and Calgary tonight
32:30
in the NHL and you guys know what I say at this point, right?
32:33
I would love a three to three-game that goes to overtime
32:35
because no matter what we're guaranteed the seventh goal.
32:38
But I'm going caps and in flames over six at -115.
32:44
That about does it for today's Monday edition, episode three of
32:48
the All Systems Go sports betting podcast.
32:50
I just want to remind you of course that you should go sign
32:53
up and do a 7 day free trial with Rhythm RITHMM, who is the
32:57
ultimate AI sports betting app. For data, back pics and props
33:01
you can download the Rhythm app today and start making smarter
33:03
bets. I would recommend using the link
33:07
in on my Twitter page because I want them to know that I
33:10
referred you to rhythm. And rhythm is just fantastic
33:13
because really it takes away all bias.
33:16
It's based on all these algorithms, models and formulas
33:19
developed by the smart, smart people who went to MIT.
33:23
And it's not just, it's not just props, you know game pics as
33:27
well. But if you just go to my Twitter
33:29
page at Josh under score Insights, you can give me a
33:32
follow and it's linked at the top.
33:34
The link to sign up for that the Rhythm Free app for seven days
33:39
and then you can also go to the ASG pod link.
33:41
So you can just go to or Twitter.
33:43
I should say you can follow the All Systems Go podcast on
33:47
Twitter at under score ASG under score podcast.
33:51
I would love it if you gave it a five star review on Spotify.
33:53
I am working to get it on all the different platforms as well.
33:56
But at the top of the ASG podcast page you're also going
33:59
to get a link for that Rhythm free trial.
34:01
And also I want you to join me and Kyle Kuzma and the rest of
34:05
the team at AT Rhythm along with my buddy James Santor to sign up
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for this awesome opportunity to gain some really awesome prizes.
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And you can get I think it's a year of rhythm for free, but
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also a lot of money, which is great.
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Enter the Rhythm AI Generated Bracket challenge with Kyle
34:24
Kuzma. Also tweet that out from the ASG
34:26
Pod page and my Twitter page as well.
34:28
That about does it everyone. Reminder, I did write a book.
34:31
If you want to learn more about sports betting, you want to
34:33
support the team, go buy my book.
34:35
You can go to Amazon.com. Type in the everything God to
34:37
sports betting. Pick one up.
34:39
For you or. For a friend.
34:40
But I just want to say that two pods in the books, we're now in
34:43
Episode 3. Ironing out some, you know, some
34:46
kinks here and there. But again, I'm so glad to be
34:49
back on the airwaves breaking down games with you, and I'm
34:51
really, really excited for a big March Madness.
34:54
So of course my parting words as always, stay sharp, stay
34:57
contrarian, Bet against the public, Place yourself on the
34:59
side of the house. Always be with the smart money.
35:01
Never against the, well, smart money.
35:03
One every time. Of course not if you haven't
35:05
realized yet sports betting. It's hard, but it doesn't mean
35:08
you can't win. You can win if you bet based on
35:11
a market based approach, your discipline with your bankroll
35:13
management. You avoid parlays, you get CLV.
35:16
That's how we're going to grind out being sharp contrarian
35:18
betters and grind out a profit here.
35:20
But good luck everyone. Have a great Monday.
35:22
Back at it tomorrow for big Tuesday.
35:24
And yeah, let's let's let the madness Here's the thing like
35:27
before. You know what madness on
35:28
Thursday. It's all going to happen.
35:30
Enjoy these quiet days where you get to you know, think about
35:33
your bracket breakdown, the games.
35:34
Because once we get started, it's it's a train going 200
35:37
miles an hour that that you can't be.
35:40
You don't want to be too late to jump on, jump aboard.
35:42
So enjoy these quiet times. We're back at it tomorrow.
35:45
Of course, guys. But thank you all for tuning in
35:47
and I wish you the best of luck. And I'll see you tomorrow for
35:50
episode four of the All Systems Go Sports Betting Podcast.