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Episode One Hundred Eighty Eight: Cheetah Captured · The Death Of Journalism

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Speaker 1: Welcome to episode number one hundred and eighty eight of
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Speaker 1: the Death of Journalism podcast. My name is John Zigler.
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Speaker 1: I'm your host. On today's show, we preview the big
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Speaker 1: presidential debate. Did we find a silver bullet in the
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Speaker 1: quest to keep Kamala Harris out of the presidency? Taylor
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Speaker 1: Swift is back of the news in multiple ways, more
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Speaker 1: evidence the end of tackle football is closer than most
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Speaker 1: people realize, and NFL star Tariq Hill gets the Scottie
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Speaker 1: Scheffler treatment from Miami police. We begin this episode of
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Speaker 1: the podcast with a brief preview of the big presidential
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Speaker 1: debate that'll be on ABC between Donald Trump and Kamala
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Speaker 1: Harris that will happen unfortunately not that long after this
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Speaker 1: episode drops, so the tomming of the debate is not
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Speaker 1: particularly great for the schedule that we release our podcast episodes,
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Speaker 1: although of course the second episode we released this week,
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Speaker 1: episode number one hundred and eighty nine, will obviously have
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Speaker 1: full coverage of what happens during that debate. But I
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Speaker 1: realized that we have less than twenty four hours of
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Speaker 1: this episode having been live, and the debate will have
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Speaker 1: already happened. So in that context, let me just give
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Speaker 1: a few thoughts about what I think will go down
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Speaker 1: and what you should be looking for, especially when it
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Speaker 1: comes to the media reaction to what occurs. Now. I
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Speaker 1: will fully acknowledge that on paper, this is maybe the
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Speaker 1: biggest debate in modern presidential history, because you have a
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Speaker 1: brand new candidate. You have the specter of us having
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Speaker 1: just done this with a totally different Democratic candidate and
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Speaker 1: Joe Biden, and we all know how terribly that went
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Speaker 1: for Biden. So we have a new character into this
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Speaker 1: passion play, and we have an extremely close race, and
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Speaker 1: we've got a controversial candidate in Trump, but a guy
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Speaker 1: who's trying to get back to the White House. And
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Speaker 1: we don't really know who Kamala Harris is. So there's
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Speaker 1: all sorts of reasons for there to be a great
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Speaker 1: deal of anticipation for this debate. So I totally get
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Speaker 1: that on paper, in theory, this is as big as
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Speaker 1: it gets because it could, especially given all the controversy
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Speaker 1: and consternation over debate rules and people threatening to pull out,
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Speaker 1: it could be the only debate between Trump and Harris
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Speaker 1: depending on how this goes down, and if only because
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Speaker 1: of the fact we clearly do regardless of how you
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Speaker 1: view the polls have a very very close race. You
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Speaker 1: could think, Okay, this may decide it. I mean, this
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Speaker 1: is gonna be maybe the last communal event where there's
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Speaker 1: a large enough audience where if anything significant happens, it
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Speaker 1: could alter the race. So I agree that that in
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Speaker 1: theory is very much the reality, and it could end
2:55
Speaker 1: up being the reality. I was wrong in the Trump
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Speaker 1: Biden debate when I said that I thought Biden would
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Speaker 1: be able to get through it. He was not really
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Speaker 1: able to get through it. I still believe that his performance,
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Speaker 1: as pathetic as it was, was spinnable by the liberal media.
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Speaker 1: But they decided that they weren't going to do that
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Speaker 1: and they would much more enjoy getting rid of him
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Speaker 1: and replacing him with Kamala Harris. And that's when ended
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Speaker 1: up essentially happening, as we covered that extensively when it occurred.
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Speaker 1: But I thought Biden could get through ninety minutes with
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Speaker 1: friendly questioners from CNN and not particularly good debating opponent
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Speaker 1: in Donald Trump. He was not able to do that
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Speaker 1: at all effectively. I believe that Harris will be able
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Speaker 1: to do that, partially because she's going to be judged
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Speaker 1: at least subconsciously by the standard, the very very low
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Speaker 1: standards set by Joe Biden. I mean, that's going to
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Speaker 1: be the reality. It's all fresh enough in our minds.
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Speaker 1: We remember how Trump did against Biden in in the
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Speaker 1: large part. That's how she's going to be judged. She's
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Speaker 1: going to be compared, not entirely, but in large part
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Speaker 1: to Biden's performance. And I think it's obvious that she'll
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Speaker 1: be able to outdo what Biden did. It's only because
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Speaker 1: of her age, so that's an advantage for her. And
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Speaker 1: I still maintain that effectively, Donald Trump has never had
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Speaker 1: a good general election debate performance. If Joe Biden had
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Speaker 1: crapped his pants, he would have lost or not won,
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Speaker 1: every single one of his general election debates against both
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Speaker 1: Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden. He is not good at
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Speaker 1: this format. He got a reputation for being good because
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Speaker 1: he dominated those first ridiculous Republican debates in twenty sixteen,
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Speaker 1: where there were thirty three people on the stage and
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Speaker 1: he was in the center, and you know, he got
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Speaker 1: to talk whatever he wanted and he could just throw
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Speaker 1: out barbs and one liners and you may have gotten
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Speaker 1: the questions for the first debate. I mean, there's all
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Speaker 1: sorts of reasons why that's an apples and oranges comparison.
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Speaker 1: So I don't think that Trump is very good at this.
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Speaker 1: I don't think Harris is going to be particularly good.
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Speaker 1: I want to make that clear. I'm sure she's going
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Speaker 1: to have some vacuous moments, but you have to remember,
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Speaker 1: much like with CNN, these are going to be very
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Speaker 1: friendly questioners at ABC, and in such a short debate,
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Speaker 1: the moderators have enormous power because they dictate the subjects.
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Speaker 1: And I'm sure I'll do this, and you should do
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Speaker 1: this yourself. Just jot down or mentally even how many
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Speaker 1: subjects are chosen for the questions that are clearly advantageous
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Speaker 1: to Harris and how many are advantage just to Trump.
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Speaker 1: Everybody knows this. We not live in such a data
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Speaker 1: rich environment where everybody knows this, which issues or topics
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Speaker 1: advantage one candidate or disadvantage a candidate, And that gives
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Speaker 1: the moderators enormous power. And I will guess. I will
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Speaker 1: guess that there at most, at most, there will be
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Speaker 1: two question subjects that advantage Trump in any significant way. Two.
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Speaker 1: If there's more than two, I will be stunned every
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Speaker 1: other subject or the question, you know, and clearly it's
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Speaker 1: it's let's be clear, in most of these situations, you're
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Speaker 1: asking about a subject. You're not really asking a question.
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Speaker 1: Especially in such a limited format, it's easy to dodge
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Speaker 1: a question you don't like. So it's really just the subject.
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Speaker 1: And so if there's more than two subjects that Harris
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Speaker 1: has to deal with that are to her disadvantage, I
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Speaker 1: will be stunned. Meanwhile, there will be multiple subjects that
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Speaker 1: disadvantage Trump, and he's gonna step in it in at
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Speaker 1: least one or two situations. We've seen, especially recently, how
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Speaker 1: terrible he is on the abortion issue all over the map,
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Speaker 1: and there's so many other topics that Trump allows the
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Speaker 1: ABC moderators to discuss with plausible deniability that they're not
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Speaker 1: inappropriate or irrational or unfair questions to ask in a
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Speaker 1: presidential debate. So this is the great power of the bias.
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Speaker 1: It's not going to necessarily be in the way that
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Speaker 1: the question is phrased, or in whether or not they
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Speaker 1: give one candidate or the other more time to respond.
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Speaker 1: I mean, there may be some of that, but the
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Speaker 1: real bias is in the subject matter. And you know,
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Speaker 1: if they wanted to be more pro Trump, they would
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Speaker 1: know exactly what subjects. Everybody knows what subjects inflation, immigration, crime,
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Speaker 1: Harris's flip flops, you know, her progressivism, there's all sorts,
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Speaker 1: I mean, all these things that she believed or pretended
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Speaker 1: to believe during the twenty twenty election that were left
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Speaker 1: of Lenin. And now that she you know, she's been
8:29
Speaker 1: allowed to flip flop on without even making direct personal
8:32
Speaker 1: statements about just having aids off the record say yay, yeah,
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Speaker 1: she didn't really believe that anymore. Let's just not talk
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Speaker 1: about that going forward. And that and the media has
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Speaker 1: gone along with that. So you know, those are the
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Speaker 1: subjects of the questions. If this was going to be
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Speaker 1: a legitimate debate, but in a limited amount of time
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Speaker 1: with very pro Harris moderators at ABC, I will be stunned.
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Speaker 1: Subject matter is remotely fair to both Trump or the
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Speaker 1: Trump's side, It'll be more than fair to Harris's side.
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Speaker 1: So that, combined with the fact that Harris is going
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Speaker 1: to benefit from the low expectations or the low comparison threshold,
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Speaker 1: that she will be judged by how, in large part
9:20
Speaker 1: by how Biden did that's a huge advantage for Harris.
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Speaker 1: The moderators are a huge advantage for Harris. The being
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Speaker 1: compared to Biden is a huge advantage to Harris. And
9:31
Speaker 1: then there's another advantage for Harris that I don't think
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Speaker 1: anybody else has talked about. This is kind of right
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Speaker 1: in my wheelhouse. Obviously, this is the death of journalism podcast.
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Speaker 1: But I talked at the time when Biden was forced
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Speaker 1: to drop out. I said, one of the elements of
9:49
Speaker 1: the perfect storm here is that the news media is
9:53
Speaker 1: going to have enormous amounts of guilt and investment when
9:58
Speaker 1: it comes to the Harris candidacy, guilt over what they
10:02
Speaker 1: did to Biden, as well as investment in making sure
10:07
Speaker 1: that what they did to Biden ends up working out,
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Speaker 1: that it doesn't turn out to be a disaster, that
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Speaker 1: Kamala Harris isn't New Coke and she ends up being
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Speaker 1: as bad or worse as Biden when it comes to
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Speaker 1: the election results and her performance. So they're going to
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Speaker 1: prop her up, and I think that was a frankly,
10:27
Speaker 1: a dead on prediction. We've seen it in spades. It
10:31
Speaker 1: has been biased on steroids. They have acted as if
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Speaker 1: they are Kamala Harris's campaign managers the news media has
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Speaker 1: and that's partially driven not totally, but partially driven by
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Speaker 1: what happened with Biden. Well, with what happened with Biden
10:48
Speaker 1: plays another role in the way that this debate will
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Speaker 1: be portrayed. And I may have even referenced this at
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Speaker 1: the time. This is what makes the Harris candadas He's
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Speaker 1: so dangerous because even though it should not be perceived
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Speaker 1: this way. And this goes back to something Caitlin Collins
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Speaker 1: said that Bill Maher that we talked a lot about
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Speaker 1: on this podcast, where she used the takedown of Joe
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Speaker 1: Biden as proof of CNN's objectivity. Wasn't Actually it was
11:21
Speaker 1: with Stephen Colbert, but regardless, I can't remember which one
11:26
Speaker 1: it was, but she did two interviews, both of which
11:28
Speaker 1: made news. Yeah, actually it was Bill Maher where she
11:32
Speaker 1: references that this was proof that CNN is objective because
11:37
Speaker 1: why else would we take down Joe Biden. Well, we
11:39
Speaker 1: took down Joe Biden. CNN did, as it turns out,
11:43
Speaker 1: because it was better for the Democratic Party. They were
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Speaker 1: getting rid of a losing candidate, one that was bad
11:49
Speaker 1: from their perspective, one for ratings. They didn't want to
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Speaker 1: defend him for three months and two because they thought
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Speaker 1: he was a loser. But in the minds of the
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Speaker 1: average voter, the news media actually probably did accumulate some
12:06
Speaker 1: significant credibility when it comes to evaluating debates. This is
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Speaker 1: I think probably the most underrated part of this debate
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Speaker 1: equation the referees. And I'm not just talking about ABC here,
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Speaker 1: I'm talking about all the other news media that will
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Speaker 1: cover this and will describe what happened and create the
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Speaker 1: narrative about this debate. They have now gotten in the
12:33
Speaker 1: minds not of conservatives, not of Trump fans, but of
12:36
Speaker 1: swing voters. They now have renewed credibility because they declared
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Speaker 1: Biden the big loser last time. So this time, if
12:49
Speaker 1: they come out and say, wow, boy, Harris really clean
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Speaker 1: Trump's clock, regardless of what the truth of the matter is,
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Speaker 1: that narrative will have a lot more credibility than it
13:02
Speaker 1: would have had otherwise. If we had not just gone
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Speaker 1: through a situation where the entire liberal media industrial complex
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Speaker 1: destroyed the Democratic candidate because of his pathetic performance during
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Speaker 1: a debate. If that had not happen, then the liberal
13:19
Speaker 1: media industrial complex declaring Harris the winner wouldn't really have
13:23
Speaker 1: much impact because even swing voters don't really trust the
13:27
Speaker 1: media in general and they sense that there's a liberal bias.
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Speaker 1: But post Biden, I think that's going to have much
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Speaker 1: more potency. Well wait a minute. The news media told
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Speaker 1: me a couple months ago that Biden got crushed and
13:43
Speaker 1: he ended up being forced out of the race. Now
13:46
Speaker 1: they're telling me Harris won, that actually has some power
13:51
Speaker 1: to it, some weight to it, some credibility to it.
13:55
Speaker 1: So that to me, from the Trump perspective, might be
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Speaker 1: the most dangerous part of this situation. And I have
14:02
Speaker 1: said numerous times that Harris says theoretically, unless she completely
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Speaker 1: does a Biden, which I don't anticipate, she has much
14:11
Speaker 1: more to gain in this circumstance. She has the ability
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Speaker 1: to cross over that presidential that psychological presidential threshold that
14:20
Speaker 1: I talk a lot about, which I don't think she's
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Speaker 1: one hundred percent done yet, even though she was vice
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Speaker 1: president for almost four years now. I think people seeing
14:29
Speaker 1: her on the same stage going head to head with
14:32
Speaker 1: Donald Trump, and if she stands her ground, I think
14:36
Speaker 1: that she gains a lot in that area, that subconscious
14:42
Speaker 1: psychological thing that Americans still have I believe, where can
14:47
Speaker 1: we picture this person as our president? And especially given
14:52
Speaker 1: the fact that she would be the first female president,
14:55
Speaker 1: this is even more imperative than it ordinarily would be
14:59
Speaker 1: for her to cross that threshold. And this gives Harris
15:03
Speaker 1: an enormous opportunity, especially since Trump is seen as a bully,
15:08
Speaker 1: So if she stands up to him and she drops
15:11
Speaker 1: a line or two, it might drop line which you
15:14
Speaker 1: know they're planning on doing. I think she has an
15:18
Speaker 1: enormous amount to gain here, and I don't know that
15:22
Speaker 1: she has that much to lose as long as her
15:26
Speaker 1: performance is significantly better than Biden's. I think she's at
15:32
Speaker 1: worse gonna hold her own here. I realize that if
15:35
Speaker 1: you're rooting for Trump, if you're rooting against Harris, that's
15:38
Speaker 1: a pessimistic point of view, but that's the way I
15:42
Speaker 1: see it. And I fully acknowledge that I was wrong
15:45
Speaker 1: in my analysis that Biden would get through that first debate,
15:49
Speaker 1: but I'm sorry, I actually think that there's a much
15:52
Speaker 1: better chance, that much better chance that Harris is gonna
15:55
Speaker 1: get through this debate decently intact. Again, I'm I full acknowledge,
16:02
Speaker 1: I'm sure that there's going to be some parts of
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Speaker 1: this debate that the right wing media will be able
16:06
Speaker 1: to pick apart and say, see, see she's an idiot.
16:10
Speaker 1: We told you she's a communist, she's a socialist. So
16:13
Speaker 1: though she might be able to hide the communism socialism
16:16
Speaker 1: thing in front of a national television audience because she's
16:19
Speaker 1: pretending to be a moderate and the media is letting
16:22
Speaker 1: her get away with that. But for the reasons I've
16:26
Speaker 1: already stated, I think she has an enormous a number
16:30
Speaker 1: of advantages here, and maybe number one, certainly the most
16:35
Speaker 1: underrated advantage, is that the news media has both renewed
16:40
Speaker 1: credibility as well as renewed motivation to declare her the
16:46
Speaker 1: winner of this debate, and I think that's the most
16:50
Speaker 1: likely scenario, as long as she doesn't completely fall in
16:55
Speaker 1: her face, which I don't think that she will. So
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Speaker 1: that's that's my preview of the debate. Obviously, we'll have
17:03
Speaker 1: full analysis of what actually transpires in the next episode
17:07
Speaker 1: of the podcast. Turning now to the death of journalism
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Speaker 1: as it relates to this presidential campaign, Probably the worst
17:16
Speaker 1: piece of journalism directly related to the campaign came this
17:20
Speaker 1: week from the Associated Press. A few days ago, and
17:24
Speaker 1: this was in the aftermath of that horrible Georgia school shooting,
17:29
Speaker 1: which resulted in the deaths of at least four people.
17:32
Speaker 1: Just horrible, horrendous, and it appears as if the transgender
17:37
Speaker 1: issue was once again in play here. The media, of course,
17:41
Speaker 1: will ignore that possibility or that likelihood. This was just
17:46
Speaker 1: awful in so many different ways. But the issue to
17:50
Speaker 1: which I'm referring when it comes to the media and
17:52
Speaker 1: the Associated Press, comes to Republican vice presidential now many JD.
17:57
Speaker 1: Vance's reaction to the Georgia shooting, and the Associated Press
18:04
Speaker 1: put out a tweet with a very short headline referencing
18:08
Speaker 1: Vance's remarks in the aftermath of the Georgia school shooting, saying,
18:12
Speaker 1: quote JD. Vance says, school shootings are a quote fact
18:17
Speaker 1: of life, calls for better security. And when I say
18:24
Speaker 1: that the entire liberal political and media industrial complex jumped
18:29
Speaker 1: all over this, I mean the entire liberal political immediate
18:35
Speaker 1: industrial complex jumped all over this. I mean everybody retweeted this,
18:41
Speaker 1: everybody was creating and promoting this narrative. With the presumption
18:47
Speaker 1: that JD. Vance was basically downplaying the whole thing, Well,
18:52
Speaker 1: nothing we can do about it. It's just a fact
18:54
Speaker 1: of life. We can't do anything about guns because you know,
18:58
Speaker 1: we just got to deal with school shootings. Thing we
19:00
Speaker 1: can do. That's basically the implication. That was the narrative,
19:05
Speaker 1: and that thing spread like wildfire because that's a narrative
19:09
Speaker 1: that liberals love, and you know, they have no love
19:13
Speaker 1: for JD. Vans. JD Vans. You know, they see, as
19:17
Speaker 1: I think, still formidable and dangerous because he's highly intelligent,
19:21
Speaker 1: unlike Trump, and so they'll take every opportunity to knock
19:25
Speaker 1: his legs out from underneath them if they haven't done
19:27
Speaker 1: so already. And this particular tweet from the AP had
19:33
Speaker 1: over two million views, two million views plus you know,
19:40
Speaker 1: all sorts of other liberal media and political figures promoting
19:44
Speaker 1: the same narrative in different ways before they eventually deleted it.
19:50
Speaker 1: They deleted it because that is not remotely an accurate
19:54
Speaker 1: way to describe what JD Van said. JD Vance said
20:00
Speaker 1: very clearly on multiple occasions, I hate that these shootings
20:06
Speaker 1: are a fact of life, for effectively saying I hate
20:10
Speaker 1: that we have to deal with this. I hate that
20:12
Speaker 1: this happens unfortunately a fairly regular basis. It was not
20:20
Speaker 1: a way of diminishing it at all, And after pressure,
20:25
Speaker 1: the Associated Press did in fact get rid of that
20:29
Speaker 1: post and they replaced it with a post and said JD.
20:33
Speaker 1: Van says he laments that school shootings are a quote
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Speaker 1: fact of life and says the US needs to harden
20:40
Speaker 1: security to prevent more carnage like the shooting this week
20:44
Speaker 1: that left for dead in Georgia. Okay, that's at least
20:49
Speaker 1: somewhat accurate. Interestingly, the second post because that didn't, you know,
20:54
Speaker 1: excite liberals. There was nothing in it for them to
20:58
Speaker 1: promote that particular narrative, and they already had the story
21:01
Speaker 1: they liked, so they were sticking to it. That post
21:04
Speaker 1: from the Associated Press had barely over one hundred thousand views.
21:08
Speaker 1: So the deleted version had over two million, and the
21:12
Speaker 1: replacement version, as of last check, had a little over
21:15
Speaker 1: one hundred thousand, which shows you, you know, that the
21:19
Speaker 1: lie can travel real far before the truth can get
21:23
Speaker 1: its pants on. And you know, this sounds like a
21:27
Speaker 1: minor deal, but this is the Associated fricking Press. This
21:30
Speaker 1: is not supposed to happen at the Associated Press. And
21:33
Speaker 1: when it happens at the Associated Press, it spreads like wildfire.
21:37
Speaker 1: One because the associated press is still seen, especially among liberals,
21:40
Speaker 1: has having credibility, but also because literally most of these
21:44
Speaker 1: news organizations not as many as they used to, but
21:46
Speaker 1: many still use the associated press to basically copy and paste.
21:52
Speaker 1: And so this thing probably had quite an impact when
21:57
Speaker 1: it came to creating a narrative, a narrative that was
22:01
Speaker 1: totally and completely false about what JD. Vance said, Thus
22:07
Speaker 1: the death of journalism. Now there's been a couple of
22:11
Speaker 1: things that have occurred that I believe are huge opportunities
22:15
Speaker 1: for the Trump campaign to change the narrative and to
22:19
Speaker 1: put it where it belongs, which I believe ought to
22:23
Speaker 1: be who the hell is Kamala Harris and what will
22:27
Speaker 1: she do if she is president? And is she being
22:30
Speaker 1: honest about who she really is? There are all speaking
22:34
Speaker 1: of narratives. I mean, there's all sorts of data points
22:37
Speaker 1: that support this narrative of who the heck is Kamala
22:40
Speaker 1: Harris and is she hiding who she really is to
22:44
Speaker 1: get elected? Well, in that context, it was extraordinary. What
22:50
Speaker 1: a gift in theory, a gift from the political gods
22:54
Speaker 1: to the Trump campaign that Bernie Sanders, a socialist, a
22:59
Speaker 1: self described socialist, former presidential candidate almost won the Democratic nomination,
23:05
Speaker 1: which shows you, you know, just how much socialism has
23:09
Speaker 1: gained traction within the Democratic Party. Senator Bernie Sanders went
23:13
Speaker 1: on Meet the Press with Kristen Welker, and she asked
23:18
Speaker 1: a surprisingly legitimate question. Although it sounded like it was
23:23
Speaker 1: a question from the left, it didn't turn out that way.
23:26
Speaker 1: The question was, you know, is Kamala Harris Bernie Sanders,
23:32
Speaker 1: turning her back on her progressive past or progressive beliefs,
23:38
Speaker 1: and are you concerned about that? That's basically the question.
23:41
Speaker 1: And then Sanders says the quiet part out loud, effectively saying, no,
23:49
Speaker 1: this is totally cool what she's doing because she's basically
23:52
Speaker 1: he doesn't use these words. She's basically lying about who
23:55
Speaker 1: she is to get elected, and he actually uses those words.
24:01
Speaker 1: And I mean, this is interrational world. This is extraordinary stuff.
24:05
Speaker 1: And here's what it sounded like. On NBC's Meet the Press.
24:09
Speaker 2: Described Vice President Kamala Harris as a progressive. She has
24:13
Speaker 2: previously supported medicare for all, now she does not. She's
24:17
Speaker 2: previously supported a ban on fracking, now she does not. These, Senator,
24:22
Speaker 2: are ideas that you have campaigned on. Do you think
24:25
Speaker 2: that she is abandoning her progressive ideals.
24:30
Speaker 3: No, I don't think she's abandoning her ideals. I think
24:33
Speaker 3: she's trying to be pragmatic and doing what she thinks
24:37
Speaker 3: is right in order to win the election. My own
24:40
Speaker 3: view is slightly different. I think that in America today,
24:45
Speaker 3: there are a lot of people, rural people, working class
24:48
Speaker 3: people who no longer believe that the United States Congress
24:52
Speaker 3: and government represents their interests through dominated by big money interests.
24:57
Speaker 3: So I think that there is something personally, when we
25:01
Speaker 3: are the only.
25:02
Speaker 1: Now in a remotely rational world, that is a problem
25:07
Speaker 1: for Democrats. That is a ready made campaign commercial, at
25:14
Speaker 1: least at the centerpiece of this narrative, which I think
25:18
Speaker 1: could easily resonate and should resonate where people are questioning
25:23
Speaker 1: who she really is and whether or not she's authentic.
25:26
Speaker 1: You combine the Sanders clip with her talking in different
25:31
Speaker 1: accents to different parts of the country. To me, that's gold.
25:36
Speaker 1: And I'm somebody who is extremely pessimistic about how possible
25:41
Speaker 1: it is to persuade the low information, often idiotic swing
25:49
Speaker 1: voters that are going to determine this election. I'm sorry,
25:52
Speaker 1: that's something that almost everybody can understand and relate to.
25:57
Speaker 1: And while I think we are now a center left country,
25:59
Speaker 1: I don't think we're yet a socialist country. Not yet.
26:04
Speaker 1: We're going in that direction owfully fast. And for Bernie Sanders,
26:08
Speaker 1: that's the key to this, the fact that it's Bernie
26:11
Speaker 1: Sanders because he is blessing from the Church of Socialism.
26:18
Speaker 1: He is blessing her betrayal. He's acknowledging her betrayal, if
26:24
Speaker 1: you read between the lines. He's blessing it because she
26:28
Speaker 1: needs to get elected, which brings in two things. One
26:34
Speaker 1: her authenticity, her trustworthiness. Is she lying about who she is?
26:38
Speaker 1: And maybe even more important than that too, what's she
26:43
Speaker 1: going to do when she's elected, Because it certainly sounds
26:47
Speaker 1: like Sanders is making the Trojan horse argument that we
26:53
Speaker 1: just got to get her through the gates, and once
26:56
Speaker 1: she's through the gates, then she can let her socialists
26:58
Speaker 1: crazy out. That's the way I interpret what Sanders was saying.
27:03
Speaker 1: But this is a golden opportunity here for the Trump
27:07
Speaker 1: campaign if it is used properly. Now, of course, this
27:11
Speaker 1: is one of the great disadvantages of being the Republican candidate,
27:14
Speaker 1: especially when it's Trump. The media is not going to
27:17
Speaker 1: do any help for you on this. If this was
27:19
Speaker 1: in reverse, if everything was reversed and you had a
27:23
Speaker 1: Republican senator saying exactly the same thing about the Republican candidate,
27:28
Speaker 1: there would be no need for the Democratic Party to
27:31
Speaker 1: make this into a campaign commercial because this would be everywhere.
27:36
Speaker 1: But this is where the bias really takes a toll,
27:39
Speaker 1: because they're acting like Harris's campaign manager. And this was
27:44
Speaker 1: the quiet part, set out loud, We're just going to
27:47
Speaker 1: move along senator standards. Maybe you know, keep a lid
27:51
Speaker 1: on that one. It's very similar to what we heard
27:54
Speaker 1: from the Democratic Convention at a black caucus meeting, where
27:57
Speaker 1: one of the speakers literally said, we just got to
28:00
Speaker 1: behave for seventy more days, then we can let the
28:03
Speaker 1: crazy out. Did the liberal media report on that, know,
28:07
Speaker 1: But this is all part of what would be the
28:11
Speaker 1: narrative if everything was reversed. But this is a narrative
28:15
Speaker 1: that the Trump campaign, if they really want to win,
28:18
Speaker 1: has got to take advantage of. Now there's some new
28:21
Speaker 1: polling out that has liberals in an incomplete freak out mode.
28:27
Speaker 1: I mean, this is frankly hilarious to me. One poll
28:30
Speaker 1: from the New York Times, and I think it's because
28:33
Speaker 1: it's the New York Times. Obviously, you know, the liberals
28:36
Speaker 1: loved the New York Times. They still revere the New
28:39
Speaker 1: York Times the paper of record, and so therefore it
28:42
Speaker 1: in their minds, it has instant credibility. And the New
28:46
Speaker 1: York Times poll has been fine. I don't think it's
28:48
Speaker 1: been fantastic. I don't think it's been terrible, but I
28:51
Speaker 1: have respect for the New York Times poll. But the
28:53
Speaker 1: New York Times put out a national poll that has
28:57
Speaker 1: Donald Trump up by one point. Depending on how you
29:00
Speaker 1: looked at the numbers, it actually had Trump at forty
29:04
Speaker 1: eight percent nationally, which is very high for him. He's
29:08
Speaker 1: normally capped out at forty six or forty seven percent.
29:13
Speaker 1: But now that you know, I guess maybe because we
29:15
Speaker 1: got out of the RFK junior confusion, and who knows
29:19
Speaker 1: whether or not he picked up a point because of that,
29:22
Speaker 1: at least temporarily, they have him at forty eight percent,
29:27
Speaker 1: up by one nationally, and the perception is and by
29:31
Speaker 1: the way, I buy this, I don't buy it nearly
29:34
Speaker 1: as much as a lot of other people do, but
29:36
Speaker 1: I buy that if Trump is winning nationally in the
29:41
Speaker 1: national popular vote, then he's basically a cinch to win
29:45
Speaker 1: the electoral college. And the New York Times poll indicates
29:49
Speaker 1: that they basically make it almost impossible under that scenario
29:54
Speaker 1: for Harris to win the electoral college. So I get
30:00
Speaker 1: why liberals are freaking out about this. They can't believe
30:04
Speaker 1: that forty eight percent of the American public are still
30:06
Speaker 1: intending to vote for Trump. They're freaked out that if
30:11
Speaker 1: those results are accurate, it means that Trump is gonna win.
30:15
Speaker 1: It also indicates that whatever momentum Harras had may have
30:20
Speaker 1: stalled or maybe be reversing, as a lot of conservatives
30:24
Speaker 1: have tried to claim that, you know, the post you know,
30:28
Speaker 1: selection honeymoon period was over, the convention bounce was small
30:32
Speaker 1: and limited, and now we're seeing the other end that
30:36
Speaker 1: inevitably happens a lot historically, And this is a lot
30:39
Speaker 1: of what Nate Silver has been counting on in his
30:43
Speaker 1: model projections, which now have trumpet sixty three percent chance
30:47
Speaker 1: of winning, maybe even higher than that, which I just
30:49
Speaker 1: think is ludicrous. But this pole certainly plays into it.
30:54
Speaker 1: But it's just one poll, and frankly, I thought there
30:58
Speaker 1: are a lot of problems with this Pole. I mean,
31:01
Speaker 1: I'm not going to go too deeply into it, but
31:03
Speaker 1: I try to be as objective as possible on these things.
31:07
Speaker 1: But we had a situation here where they decided to
31:12
Speaker 1: choose Party ID or discern Party ID by really squeezing
31:18
Speaker 1: it out of people. In other words, Okay, which direction
31:20
Speaker 1: do you lean? You don't just call yourself a Democrat
31:22
Speaker 1: or a Republican. Which direction do you lean? And forty
31:26
Speaker 1: eight percent of the respondents either describe themselves as a
31:30
Speaker 1: Republican or lean Republican, which is an extremely high number,
31:36
Speaker 1: extremely high, and it happens to match exactly the percentage
31:42
Speaker 1: that Trump got, So I'm inherently suspicious of the sample. Now,
31:47
Speaker 1: I hate it when people don't like a POLE result
31:50
Speaker 1: or disagree with the Pole result, and frankly, I don't care.
31:53
Speaker 1: I'm just looking at this as from an umpire's perspective,
31:56
Speaker 1: balls and strikes, trying to figure out what the truth is.
31:58
Speaker 1: I'm rooting against Harris, although I'm not going to vote
32:01
Speaker 1: for Donald Trump, so it's not like I'm I'm rooting
32:04
Speaker 1: for the bulls to show Harris winning. I'm just looking
32:08
Speaker 1: for what reality is. And that was awfully fishy. To
32:13
Speaker 1: me that particular sample. There were also internal results that
32:18
Speaker 1: I thought were extremely favorable to Trump, especially when it
32:24
Speaker 1: came to the demographic breakdown. His percentage of the black
32:28
Speaker 1: vote seem unrealistically high and historically very high. Similarly with
32:34
Speaker 1: the Hispanic vote, and so you have this extremely high
32:39
Speaker 1: Republican sample, these numbers that don't seem to make a
32:42
Speaker 1: lot of sense. By the way, one of the demographic
32:44
Speaker 1: numbers that was extraordinary. They have Trump winning male voters,
32:49
Speaker 1: all male voters by seventeen percent, seventeen percent by most accounts,
32:58
Speaker 1: the only one male voters in two twenty by eight percent.
33:01
Speaker 1: You might have some other accounts have it like as
33:06
Speaker 1: high as ten percent, But so even if it's ten percent,
33:09
Speaker 1: that's an extraordinarily high gender gap. And the youth gap
33:15
Speaker 1: was not nearly as high as I think it ought
33:18
Speaker 1: to be. It had Harris only winning the youngest demographic
33:23
Speaker 1: I guess eighteen to twenty four, whatever it was, by
33:27
Speaker 1: eight percentage points. Now I realize there's an narrative out
33:31
Speaker 1: there the young men are trending hard Republican and hard
33:34
Speaker 1: for Trump, which makes sense, but I'm sorry, young women
33:40
Speaker 1: have got to be off the charts. For Harris, and
33:43
Speaker 1: you're telling me that that demo only went by eight
33:47
Speaker 1: points for Harris. So you have all these things that
33:50
Speaker 1: are very effishy, the high percentage of Republicans, Trump doing
33:55
Speaker 1: extremely well with black voters, extremely well with Hispanic voter,
34:00
Speaker 1: off the charts with mail voters, not badly at all
34:03
Speaker 1: with young voters, and he's only up by one point.
34:10
Speaker 1: I'm sorry. I mean, I realize I have a contrarian
34:13
Speaker 1: mindset and I tend to be pessimistic, but I don't.
34:17
Speaker 1: I don't look at that pole and go, holy shit,
34:19
Speaker 1: Trump is going to win. I look at that pole,
34:21
Speaker 1: I go that is the best. That is the best
34:25
Speaker 1: Trump can possibly do, barring, you know, some collapse at
34:31
Speaker 1: this debate or something else. And he's only up by
34:35
Speaker 1: one point nationally. Now one point nationally does it by
34:38
Speaker 1: all accounts. I still think it's not one hundred percent
34:43
Speaker 1: like most people, including the Times seems to indicate. But
34:46
Speaker 1: I will fully acknowledge that it's in the ninety some
34:49
Speaker 1: percentile that if Trump wins the popular vote by even
34:53
Speaker 1: that one point, that he's gonna win the election. But
34:57
Speaker 1: I have very serious concerns about the nature of this
35:02
Speaker 1: polling sample because part of it is because of the timing.
35:06
Speaker 1: This doesn't make any sense to me that all of
35:09
Speaker 1: a sudden, all of a sudden, now people are starting
35:13
Speaker 1: to get it that Harris, you know, is dangerous, that
35:16
Speaker 1: she's a communist, that she's inauthentic. I mean, you know,
35:20
Speaker 1: there's certainly plenty of reasons for that to occur, But
35:24
Speaker 1: it's hard for me to understand how it is that
35:26
Speaker 1: swing voters, who aren't paying very much attention, and we
35:30
Speaker 1: haven't had the debate yet and we're just getting out
35:32
Speaker 1: of the summer, all of a sudden are getting this
35:35
Speaker 1: in fairly significant numbers. Could it be? Sure, could be,
35:40
Speaker 1: And that would be you know, that would give me
35:41
Speaker 1: some faith in the American public if that actually happened,
35:45
Speaker 1: If they're really starting to get it on Kamala Harris,
35:47
Speaker 1: that's great news. But I'm quote unquote skeptical. That would
35:53
Speaker 1: be my one word response to the New York Times poll.
35:57
Speaker 1: I am skeptical, maybe even very skeptical. Now there's another
36:03
Speaker 1: CBS pull out of swing states, which is striking for
36:08
Speaker 1: a completely different reason because they have every single swing state,
36:14
Speaker 1: all seven of them, and by the way, even the
36:17
Speaker 1: second congressional district in Nebraska is kind of in this category,
36:21
Speaker 1: although not quite as much. They have Harris winning by
36:25
Speaker 1: I think four or five points in the second Congressional
36:28
Speaker 1: district of Nebraska, which we talked a lot about. But
36:30
Speaker 1: in the seven swing states, the ones we talked about
36:34
Speaker 1: constantly every single episode for like the last year of
36:37
Speaker 1: this podcast, every single one of them is within a
36:41
Speaker 1: two point margin. A couple are tied, a couple are
36:45
Speaker 1: one point separated. Almost all of them have either Trump
36:52
Speaker 1: or Harris or both hitting the fifty percent mark. That's
36:58
Speaker 1: as beyond as as close as you can possibly get
37:02
Speaker 1: if the CBS Swing State Pole is even close to accurate,
37:09
Speaker 1: and nothing dramatic changes between now and the election. We
37:13
Speaker 1: are looking at the Florida recount from two thousand times
37:19
Speaker 1: at least one hundred, if not a thousand, because of
37:23
Speaker 1: the fact that you're throwing Trump into the mix here,
37:27
Speaker 1: because you would have situations that would require either recounts
37:34
Speaker 1: or something close to a recount in seven different states simultaneously.
37:43
Speaker 1: I mean, it was bad enough in two thousand when
37:45
Speaker 1: it was just Florida and it was extremely close, and
37:49
Speaker 1: the whole election came down to Florida. Now I think
37:52
Speaker 1: we could see easily a repeat of two thousand with
37:57
Speaker 1: the state of Pennsylvania replacing the state of Florida. You know,
38:00
Speaker 1: gun to my head, that's a very very likely scenario
38:04
Speaker 1: and maybe the most likely scenario right now. But that
38:09
Speaker 1: swing state Paul really hit me between the eyes, like
38:12
Speaker 1: holy shit, I mean, and I can see it. And
38:16
Speaker 1: part of why I can see it, And you know,
38:18
Speaker 1: I talk a lot about how geography still matters, and
38:22
Speaker 1: how Georgia was the only landlocked state in twenty twenty,
38:27
Speaker 1: and that culture matters. I still do believe it matters,
38:30
Speaker 1: but in a large way. In many ways, we're becoming
38:34
Speaker 1: so homogenized, you know, through all and this is another
38:38
Speaker 1: subject for another day, but you know, we're really boiling
38:43
Speaker 1: down to demographics. And it doesn't really matter whether or
38:47
Speaker 1: not the demographics are in the south or the northeast
38:50
Speaker 1: or the southwest. The demographics of the demographics, and if
38:55
Speaker 1: the demographics are similar. Now, there are some states in
38:59
Speaker 1: the swings day pool that are different, like Wisconsin's demographics
39:03
Speaker 1: are very different from Georgia's demographic but by and large,
39:07
Speaker 1: in some ways these demographics are very similar, and that's
39:12
Speaker 1: why we're getting very similar results. Now, I also think
39:16
Speaker 1: Harris being injected into the race has confused things because
39:20
Speaker 1: people haven't really decided how for sure how they feel
39:23
Speaker 1: about her yet. But my god, if that's the way
39:27
Speaker 1: this thing goes for the next two months. I've joked
39:33
Speaker 1: about this before. We'll be counting votes into January. January
39:37
Speaker 1: of twenty twenty six, and I may use that joke
39:41
Speaker 1: several more times because that's what that result would mean. Now,
39:45
Speaker 1: do I believe that that's going to happen. Probably not.
39:49
Speaker 1: I think there's all sorts of things that will prevent
39:52
Speaker 1: that from actually occurring in the real world. But that's
39:55
Speaker 1: where we are when it comes to the CBS Swing
39:58
Speaker 1: State Pole. Now, there's a very interesting polling result that
40:03
Speaker 1: came from the Trump Superpack that my friend Steve Cortes runs,
40:09
Speaker 1: And this was a poll out of Arizona. And this
40:15
Speaker 1: poll was interesting on a number of different levels. But
40:17
Speaker 1: the first part was that Trump and Harris were tied
40:21
Speaker 1: in Steve Cortes's Pole of Arizona. Now, that's actually a
40:26
Speaker 1: little bit worse for Trump than some other polls have
40:29
Speaker 1: indicated recently in Arizona. For instance, in my Electoral College
40:35
Speaker 1: status update, I have Trump winning barely but winning in Arizona.
40:41
Speaker 1: But Steve Cortez has it as a tied race. I
40:44
Speaker 1: believe forty eight forty eight. That's interesting. But the most
40:49
Speaker 1: significant part of this pole is the question was asked
40:54
Speaker 1: of Arizona's a state that borders California, what is their
41:01
Speaker 1: view of California. Now you may recall that I have
41:06
Speaker 1: said time and time and time again, all the way
41:09
Speaker 1: back to the twenty twenty election, that Trump should be
41:13
Speaker 1: running as much or more against the state of California
41:20
Speaker 1: than he is against Kamala Harris. I thought that in
41:23
Speaker 1: twenty twenty, even when he was running against Joe Biden.
41:25
Speaker 1: But now that it's Kamala Harris and she's literally from
41:30
Speaker 1: the state, and you know, made her career in the state.
41:33
Speaker 1: Her DNA is made up of California liberal politics, progressive politics.
41:40
Speaker 1: I mean, this is imperative. And so I have been screaming,
41:44
Speaker 1: bloody murdered than anyone who will listen. California, California, California.
41:49
Speaker 1: This is comrade Kamala from California. That's frankly what Trump
41:55
Speaker 1: ought to be calling her at the debate, even comrade
42:00
Speaker 1: from California. And so I was very very glad that
42:05
Speaker 1: Steve asked this question. I wonder where he got the
42:08
Speaker 1: idea from, but I was very glad that Steve asked
42:11
Speaker 1: this question and the results were a potential gold mine.
42:18
Speaker 1: I believe that this result may have struck oil when
42:21
Speaker 1: it comes to a to mix more metaphors, a potential
42:25
Speaker 1: silver bullet in the quest to keep Kamala Harris out
42:29
Speaker 1: of the presidency, because, as I suspected, the results were extraordinary.
42:36
Speaker 1: The question was asked of Arizonans, do you believe that
42:41
Speaker 1: politically the state of California is on the right track,
42:45
Speaker 1: the wrong track? Or are you not sure? Only eighteen
42:52
Speaker 1: percent of Arizonans, a state that borders California, a state
42:56
Speaker 1: that has a lot of people who live in both states,
43:00
Speaker 1: a lot of people who have migrated from California to Arizona.
43:03
Speaker 1: Only eighteen percent of responding said that they believe California
43:08
Speaker 1: is on the right track. Eighteen percent over sixty percent
43:12
Speaker 1: said wrong track. Now, are they going to completely blame
43:18
Speaker 1: Kamala Harris for that? Or will they? Will you be
43:21
Speaker 1: able to tag Kamala Harris one hundred percent with the
43:26
Speaker 1: state of California and the wrong direction? That's going no,
43:31
Speaker 1: but I'm sorry. Those are dramatic, game changing numbers. So
43:38
Speaker 1: if you do this properly, how does a candidate from California,
43:44
Speaker 1: who was California's attorney general, California's senator, who represents the
43:51
Speaker 1: exact political progressive philosophy that has caused California to go
43:57
Speaker 1: down the wrong track in the minds the vast majority
44:00
Speaker 1: of Arizona voters, How does that person win the state
44:05
Speaker 1: of Arizona, especially given the immigration situation there? How does
44:11
Speaker 1: that happen? Now? Having carry Lake on the ballot as
44:15
Speaker 1: the Republican senatorial candidate does not help, But I believe
44:19
Speaker 1: that that can be overcome. And I think if the
44:22
Speaker 1: Trump campaign does a good enough job of defining Harris
44:27
Speaker 1: Visit Vie, California and Arizona, They're going to win Arizona.
44:31
Speaker 1: And Steve has indicated that now this question is going
44:34
Speaker 1: to be asked in other states as well, and my
44:37
Speaker 1: guess is the results are going to be just as
44:40
Speaker 1: dramatic and create just as much potential. I fully realized
44:46
Speaker 1: that this. I look at this as a vindication of
44:48
Speaker 1: my view for the last four years. So I'm biased here,
44:51
Speaker 1: but those numbers are start eighteen percent. Even I was
44:56
Speaker 1: surprised by how dramatic that is, so that to me
45:03
Speaker 1: was maybe the most optimistic statistic I have seen so
45:07
Speaker 1: far when it comes to the prospect of preventing Harris
45:11
Speaker 1: from becoming president, if you tie her to California properly,
45:17
Speaker 1: I think this can be done, even with all the disadvantages,
45:21
Speaker 1: especially vis a vie the news media. Now this is
45:25
Speaker 1: certainly related. I told you recently about this proposal than
45:30
Speaker 1: California to have free illegal immigrant home loans be made
45:36
Speaker 1: available by the state of California, with the State of
45:38
Speaker 1: California basically acting as a bank for illegal immigrants, and
45:42
Speaker 1: I described exactly how terrible an idea this was. This
45:46
Speaker 1: was a bill that was passed by the socialist Marxist
45:50
Speaker 1: California legislature and was sent to Governor Gavin Poussam's desk,
45:56
Speaker 1: Governor Pussam, as my daughter's refer to him, Newsom's desk,
46:01
Speaker 1: And I told you I didn't think he was going
46:03
Speaker 1: to sign it. I don't remember how definitive I was,
46:05
Speaker 1: but I certainly suggested that I did not think that,
46:09
Speaker 1: in the middle of a presidential election campaign, that Newsom
46:12
Speaker 1: was going to sign it because he's already signaled that,
46:16
Speaker 1: for whatever reason, he's at least on the surface, gonna
46:20
Speaker 1: try to do Harris as many favors as he can.
46:24
Speaker 1: I mean, all of a sudden, after Harris became the nominee,
46:28
Speaker 1: ending homelessness was suddenly a huge priority for Gavin Newsom. Well,
46:33
Speaker 1: to me, he's trying to at least pretend to clean
46:36
Speaker 1: up the state so that the state doesn't become such
46:39
Speaker 1: an obvious metaphor for the Harris campaign. I think Newsom
46:44
Speaker 1: is frankly looking at this very much the same way
46:46
Speaker 1: as I am. Ironically enough, well, as it turns out,
46:50
Speaker 1: I was right. Newsom decided not to sign this crazy
46:54
Speaker 1: free illegal immigrant home loan bill, hilariously saying that they
47:00
Speaker 1: didn't have any money. This is hilarious and a number
47:03
Speaker 1: of perspectives, but one of them is, wait a minute,
47:06
Speaker 1: I thought things were going so well in California. Now,
47:08
Speaker 1: all of a sudden, we don't enough money to do
47:11
Speaker 1: this final way. I'm sure it's true that we don't
47:14
Speaker 1: have enough money, but that's never stopped you before. That's
47:17
Speaker 1: just an excuse for having, you know, the the audacity
47:22
Speaker 1: to do the right thing because you think not doing
47:26
Speaker 1: the right thing would be politically dangerous in the middle
47:29
Speaker 1: of a presidential election. Thanks for listening to today's free
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