Latest / Pod Save America / “The greatest defeat in history.”

Transcript

“The greatest defeat in history.” · Pod Save America

• 0:20
  Speaker 1: Welcome to Pod Save America, I'm Jon Favreau.
• 0:22
  Speaker 2: I'm Dan Pfeiffer.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: In studio. What a special day.
• 0:25
  Speaker 2: Big day, people.
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: Big day.
• 0:26
  Speaker 2: Big day.
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: Today on the pod, we have Dan's interview with Run
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: for Something's Amanda Littman about all the winning candidates they
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: helped support on Tuesday. Before that, we'll dig into the
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: results of this week's big elections. We'll announce the results
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: of our latest 2020 Polar Coaster survey on impeachment. And
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: we'll talk about the latest Democratic primary skirmish between Joe
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: Biden and Elizabeth Warren over Medicare for All. I'm calling
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: them skirmishes.
• 0:49
  Speaker 2: Skirmishes?
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't want to get into too much... What were...
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: Destroying each other.
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: Yeah, what levels of fighting fall on either side of skirmish?
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't know. It's getting a little hotter than skirmish, but...
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: A few other crooked pods to check out this week.
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: On Pod Save the World, Tommy and Ben talk about
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: what the death of al-Baghdadi means for ISIS, the future
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: of climate activism after the Paris Climate Agreement, Iran's increased
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: nuclear activity, protests in Chile and Iraq, and the privatization
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: of spying. Lots going on.
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: Are these... I love the Pots of the World promos.
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: They are so thorough.
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: So thorough. Something for everyone. That wasn't even the end.
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: Then America Dissected host Abdul El-Saeed joins to talk about Ebola, superbugs,
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: and global public health. If you're not listening to America Dissected,
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: check it out. It is extremely well done, informative, and entertaining.
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: Terrorism, climate change, superbugs.
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: It sounds like an Obama foreign policy speech.
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: The title should be Three Ways You Could Die.
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: Finally, you've heard us talk about Organizing Corps 2020 before.
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: This is a new organization of former Obama people that's
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: training a smart, diverse group of young people to become
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: field organizers for 2020 in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Florida,
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona. If you are from one
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: of these states and interested in joining the general election
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: as a field organizer, go to OrganizingCorps2020. com. If you can't
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: work in the general election... You still can help sponsor
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: the training for someone who can. It costs $ 5, 000 to recruit, train,
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: and pay an organizer. An early investment now has a
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: huge payoff come June of 2020 when the Democratic nominee
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: will have only five months to wage a general election
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: campaign against Donald Trump. This is a great program. It's
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: training organizers in the communities where they come from, where
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: they're going to be working. It's training young people who
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: are in college, just out of college. So check out OrganizingCore2020. com
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: if you want to participate and you're a young person
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: or if you just want to sponsor someone. It's great.
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: And before we get to the news, I believe you
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: have some news.
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: I do have some news. It is time to answer
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: that periodic question, what do I do with my time?
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: While the rest of you are running a company, you
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: have your own podcasts. You've turned your dogs into Instagram influencers.
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: All of those things.
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: I feel like you were quite busy doing all of
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: the podcast stuff and raising a child. Is raising a
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: child not as hard as I think it is?
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: It is quite hard and has turned me into a
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: firm opponent of Daylight Savings Time.
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: Oh, yeah.
• 3:22
  Speaker 2: A lesson you will... Having a child has taken me
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: to the point where I actually agree with Lovett on
• 3:26
  Speaker 2: one of his rants.
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: Yes.
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: But my actual news is, in addition to raising a child,
• 3:31
  Speaker 2: I wrote another book.
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: Wow.
• 3:32
  Speaker 2: I know.
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: You do a lot of work.
• 3:35
  Speaker 2: Well, when you get up at the crack ass of dawn,
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: you can do some writing. And this book, which will
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: be released on February 18th, 2020, is called Untrumping America,
• 3:44
  Speaker 2: A Plan to Make America a Democracy Again. It is
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: born of the idea that there is nothing more important
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: than beating Trump in 2020, but that is not enough
• 3:53
  Speaker 2: to fix our democracy.
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: Because you have to beat him like a drum?
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: The first chapter is a series of drum emojis. Please continue.
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: Yes.
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: The book is about what we can do to win
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: in 2020 and how Democrats have to make themselves the
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: party of democracy. We have to put fixing our democracy
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: at the top of the agenda because if we do
• 4:14
  Speaker 2: not do those things, none of the progressive issues that
• 4:17
  Speaker 2: we care so much about will happen because America will
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: continue on a path where we are a country of
• 4:23
  Speaker 2: a progressive, diverse, growing majority governed by a conservative, mostly white,
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: shrinking minority. And if we want to make sure the
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: Trump number happens again, We have to fix our democracy.
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: So this book is my playbook for how we win
• 4:37
  Speaker 2: in 2020 and what Democrats do with the power after that,
• 4:41
  Speaker 2: how we fix our democracy, how we put that at
• 4:42
  Speaker 2: the top of the agenda. And I wrote it in
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: the hopes that it would provide guidance to Democratic leaders,
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: our activists, and voters out there about what we have
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: to do to make sure that we never go through
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: what we're going through right now again.
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: This is going to be such a good book.
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: It comes, well, that's the fucking hope. But it comes
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: out on February 18th. I am donating a portion of
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: the proceeds of every book sold in the presale period
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: to our friends at Fair Fight, Stacey Abrams' group that
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: is helping protect voting rights and doing as much as
• 5:15
  Speaker 2: anyone out there to ensure that America is a democracy.
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: And the last thing I will say is my publisher
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: has told me almost every day since I started this
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: book that selling a second book is much harder than
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: a first book. The wisdom of saying that to someone
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: staring at a blank page I'll leave that to others.
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: But because he's done it, I feel as motivated as
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: I possibly can to encourage people to buy the book
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: in the hopes that we can, I would love you
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: to read it. That'd mean a lot to me, but
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: also in the hopes that at the end of this,
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: we can deliver a nice contribution to Fair Fight and
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: help their efforts. If you, you can buy the book
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: by going to untrumpingamerica.com. That gives you access to Amazon,
• 5:54
  Speaker 2: Barnes and Noble, Indie Bound, where you can get it
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: from a local independent bookstore. And if you do buy
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: it and you want to make it so that I
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: can sleep better at night tweet out or share on
• 6:04
  Speaker 2: social media a copy of your proof of purchase in
• 6:07
  Speaker 2: the hopes that we can encourage other people to do
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: it and contribute to Fair Fight.
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: Fantastic. That's what we call, when we do the Cash
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: App ads, a win-win.
• 6:14
  Speaker 2: It is a win-win, yes.
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: You buy the book, you learn how to save democracy,
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: and then by buying the book, you're also helping save
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: democracy by helping Stacey Abrams Fair Fight.
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: It's a virtuous cycle.
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: A lot of democracy. I will say that, you know,
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: after reading your first book, which was fantastic, I was
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: very hopeful and excited that you would write a second.
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: So it's good for America.
• 6:33
  Speaker 2: Against my own, perhaps my own best interests, I did.
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: Okay. Let's get to the news, which for once is
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: actually quite good. We're going to start with some good news.
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: On election day 2019, Democrats won a series of significant
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: and even surprising victories, continuing the streak that began since
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump took office. In Virginia, Democrats flipped both houses
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: of the General Assembly, which gives them full control of
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: the government for the first time in decades. In Kentucky,
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: a state that Trump won by 30 points, Democrat Andy
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: Beshear narrowly defeated Republican mini-Trump Matt Bevin in the race
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: for governor. Democrats also elected more progressive prosecutors and gained
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: control of city councils everywhere from Trump counties in Pennsylvania
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: to Mike Pence's hometown in Indiana. Dan, first reactions to
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: the night overall. Were you surprised?
• 7:22
  Speaker 2: I am generally surprised by good news because I live
• 7:24
  Speaker 2: by the credo. prepare for the worst, hope for the best,
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: and then don't really hope that much.
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: That's right.
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: But yeah, I was surprised, and my takeaway is I
• 7:34
  Speaker 2: love winning, and I love winning even more when it
• 7:36
  Speaker 2: makes Donald Trump sad.
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, we'll talk about each of the individual
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: races in a second, but I had sort of expected
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: a good result in Virginia because being entrenched in wilderness
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: production right now, You know, I just the demographics in
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: Virginia are quite favorable to us and they're getting more favorable.
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: The demographics in Kentucky are not. And so I was
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: I was a little surprised that Andy Beshear pulled it
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: out pleasantly. So let's start, though, with what I think
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: is the most meaningful victory of the night in Virginia.
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: So now the Democrats have flipped at least two seats
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: in the Senate and five in the House. Some are
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: headed to recount. They have taken control of the General Assembly.
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: They have a Democratic governor in Ralph Northam. What can
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: happen now? What does that mean?
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: Well, everything means that Democrats will be in control of
• 8:28
  Speaker 2: the redistricting process. It means that Democrats can expand health care.
• 8:32
  Speaker 2: It means the Democrats can pass gun safety laws that
• 8:35
  Speaker 2: have been held up by Republicans since the shooting in
• 8:37
  Speaker 2: Virginia Beach recently. And it means the Democrats could put
• 8:42
  Speaker 2: us closer to amending the Constitution to ensure that rights
• 8:46
  Speaker 2: are equal. Imagine that.
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: The Equal Rights Amendment, this is sort of, it was
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: a little bit under the radar in the weeks leading
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: up to the election, but there was an expiration date
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: on the original amendment.
• 8:58
  Speaker 2: It's the Constitution, not milk, people.
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: Right, and it says like, so this has to be
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: ratified by 1982, I think it was. But there's legal
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: questions over whether that even matters. But if it does matter,
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: Congress can just lift the ratification date. Apparently the House,
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: obviously we can vote in the House. In the Senate...
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: There's two sponsors of a bill to lift the ratification date,
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: and those are Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski. So you
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: could imagine actually getting the votes in the Senate to
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: do this. Or you might not need them because a
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: court may rule that the ratification date doesn't really matter anyway.
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: Either way, it's very possible that we're headed for an
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: amendment to the Constitution because... A lot of people worked
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: their asses off in the Commonwealth of Virginia to elect Democrats.
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: That is so huge.
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: And people have been working on it for 45 years.
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: 45 years to give women equal rights.
• 9:48
  Speaker 2: Maybe it's 47 years, but it's a lot of fucking years.
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: It's been happening longer than I've been alive and has
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: been noted previously. I'm not that young.
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm just, you know, it's such a Democrats for
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: so long. you know, the critique has been, and it
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: was a critique during the Obama years, fair at times,
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: that we have not paid enough attention to down ballot races.
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: And here you have, there's no governor's race in Virginia.
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: We all focused on that in 2017, but there's an assembly, right?
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: Like how many people are on the country? pay attention
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: to state legislative elections now a lot do and a
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: lot in virginia and people have worked their asses up
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: there for not just around the election but for years
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: to flip virginia and now that they have there's going
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: to be tangible benefits in the lives of people in
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: virginia minimum wage gun safety and they can now draw
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: the congressional districts um when that redistricting happens in 2021
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: which will at least give democrats in the house in
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: virginia the seats that they have and possibly make another
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: seat competitive for Democrats, which is huge. So it's really great.
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: It's really great. And I will say, you know, in May,
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: we launched our Fuck Gerrymandering Fund with Data for Progress
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: to identify and support winnable races in Virginia in 2019.
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: And we identified the races where your contributions would go
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: the furthest. So they were the toughest races in media
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: markets where your money could go really far. You made
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: over 50,000 donations since then. which helped raise over $ 250, 000
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: for these candidates, five of whom, five of the targets won,
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: and three more are headed to recount. So again, we
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: won by only flipping a few seats, and thanks to
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: your donations, five of these candidates won and possibly eight.
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: So thank you for doing that. The donations really made
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: a difference, and it's great. It's a great feeling. Dan,
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: is Virginia a blue state now? Yes.
• 11:38
  Speaker 3: It is.
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's pretty blue. It is.
• 11:39
  Speaker 2: I mean, I want, I feel like I have to
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: knock on wood a thousand times just for declaring anything
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: as a blue state after having once declared that Pennsylvania
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: was a blue state, but it is clear that it
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: has been moving in one direction for 10 years, right?
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: Going back to Obama's quite surprising at the time when
• 11:54
  Speaker 2: in 2008 and it is continued. And I think the
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: results in Virginia, even the results across the country, but
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: particularly in Virginia show that what is happening in the
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: suburbs since 2016 is has gone from being simply a
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: reaction to Trump's win to an actual realignment of the electorate.
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: And it is blue. It is in a state that
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: is unlikely to be contested in any way by the
• 12:17
  Speaker 2: Republicans in 2020. And that's notable.
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: And the reasons that the suburbs are moving so quickly
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: towards the Democrats, there's two main reasons there. One, as
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: cities become even more crowded, a lot of... working-class folks
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: in the cities, particularly people of color, are moving into
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: a lot of the inner suburbs of big cities. And
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: they tend to vote Democrat. So that's one thing that's happening.
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: The other thing that's happening is college-educated white people in
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: some of these suburbs who are a little wealthier, who
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: have traditionally voted Republican, are being turned off by Donald
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: Trump's presidency and the extremism of the Republican Party. And
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: so they are switching their votes So the composition of
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: the suburbs are changing to be more favorable to Democrats demographically,
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: and you're getting a bunch of college-educated former Republicans who
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: are switching parties. And that combination is making suburbs not
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: only in the traditionally big, blue, liberal cities and liberal
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: states more Democratic, but places like Phoenix, and places like,
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: and we're going to talk about the area around Louisville
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: and Kentucky, right? And so this is happening all over
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: the country. Now, the Flip side of that is, in
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: rural areas and the exurbs, the far-flung suburbs, those are
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: becoming more Republican. So, you know, that's why it's still close.
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: Let's talk about Kentucky, where Donald Trump suffered, in his words,
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: the greatest defeat in the history of the world. Those
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: were his words spoken the night before the election at
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: a rally for Matt Bevin. Democrat Andy Beshear has declared
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: victory over Governor Matt Bevin with a lead of about 5,000 votes.
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: Because Bevin's war on teachers and people with health care
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: made him one of the most unpopular governors in the country,
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: he tried to nationalize the race by tying himself to
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: Trump and railing against impeachment. It didn't work, though Bevin
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: has refused to concede because he says there were voting irregularities.
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: He's apparently keeping to himself what those irregularities were.
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: Well, I mean, to be fair, Republicans all up and
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: down the ballot lost due to.
• 14:28
  Speaker 2: It was a very specific set of irregularities that only
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: affected the Bashir-Bevin race.
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: Honestly, that's the argument I saw him use at one point,
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: that the other Republicans won and he didn't, so there
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: must be irregularities. Yeah, you're the fucking irregularity, dude. Dan,
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: how did Andy Bashir win this race in a state
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: that Trump won by 30 points in 2016?
• 14:49
  Speaker 2: It really was an update of how Democrats won in
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: the Obama era, which is running up big numbers in
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: urban areas. doing very well in suburbs, and the update
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: is doing much better in suburbs than they had previously done,
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: and then holding down losses in rural areas. They're even
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: in a lot of these sort of coal counties in Kentucky.
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: Yeah, in northeastern Kentucky, I think.
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: Where Bevin had done quite well four years ago, Beshear
• 15:15
  Speaker 2: did much better than his previous opponent, held down those margins,
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: and was able to cobble together a victory in one
• 15:24
  Speaker 2: of the trumpiest states of all, when you look at
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: what the composition of the electorate is. Very heavily, very
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: white state, very heavily non-college white state. It should be
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: a state where the Trump coalition does quite well. Did
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: not do here. The other element of that was very
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: important to Beshear's win was he ran on health care
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: and education, particularly health care where Kentucky, under his father,
• 15:49
  Speaker 2: who had been governor until 2015, had expanded Medicaid, called
• 15:54
  Speaker 2: it Kentucky Connect. It had been very, very popular. Bevin
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: came in, undid it, caused all kinds of problems to healthcare,
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: was an invalid opponent of Obamacare. Beshear ran on restoring
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: that and fixing healthcare in Kentucky, and that was a
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: very powerful message.
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: So you're saying a Trump-like executive who tried to take
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: away people's healthcare was not very popular.
• 16:18
  Speaker 2: That was my favorite part of the Republican spin, is
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: I was watching CNN, and Dana Bash was on, and
• 16:23
  Speaker 2: she had just talked to a bunch of Republicans who
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: were trying to spin these results, why they didn't mean
• 16:27
  Speaker 2: anything for Trump in 2020. And they were like, look,
• 16:31
  Speaker 2: Bevin's a unique case. He's a controversial, prickly personality, gets
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: a lot of attention, tried to take away healthcare. That's
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: like a unicorn. That's not a thing that's going to
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: matter in the future. I don't know anyone. I don't
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: know anyone like that.
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: I mean, I think there's a lot of focus on
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: Bevin being Trump-like in his personality and being offensive and
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: all that. But I do think his very public war
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: against people on Medicaid and teachers, he basically tried to
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: go after health care and retirement for a lot of
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: citizens of Kentucky. And I think when we're talking about
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump and how to beat Donald Trump, we talked
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: a lot about health care in the lead up to
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: the 2018 elections. we haven't really talked, and we've talked
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: about this in the pod before, we haven't really talked
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: as much about Trump's budget and the Republican budget. And
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: if he wins, if Republicans win in 2020, what that
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: will mean for the healthcare and retirement of many people
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: in this country. And I think this election should teach
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: us that is very fruitful territory for Democrats to go after.
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: I do think, you know, back to how Bashir won it. Again,
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: it says something about sort of the silliness of this
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: sort of turnout versus persuasion debate. Turnout was Off the charts.
• 17:50
  Speaker 2: They haven't got more votes in 2019 by a lot
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: than in 2015.
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: Yeah, a lot. A lot more votes. So Republican turnout
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: was way up. Democratic turnout was way up. Andy Beshear
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: I saw in some of the urban counties around Louisville
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: and Lexington had the same number of votes as Hillary
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: Clinton in a non-presidential year. That is crazy. But if
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: that was all that happened, Republican turnout up, Democrat turnout up,
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: Beshear doesn't win. He only won... by also, like you said,
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: keeping those rural margins down in coal country and some
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: of the places in Kentucky where, you know, Bevin tried
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: to take away people's health care. And I think that
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: was a big, that's a big deal.
• 18:28
  Speaker 2: A large number of people who voted for Trump in
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: 2016 voted for Andy Beshear in 2019. Just happened.
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: That's notable. Persuasion is a real thing. People really do
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: switch their votes and it matters a lot. So just
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: talk about what this means now that Andy Beshear is governor.
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: He will end the Medicaid work requirements that were kicking
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: tens of thousands of people off their health care. And
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: he's also pledged to restore voting rights for a lot
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: of people in Kentucky, which is a huge deal.
• 18:51
  Speaker 2: And he's pledged to try to fix the absurdity that
• 18:54
  Speaker 2: they close the polls at 6 p.m.
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: Yeah. And then they make Kentucky the first results we
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: get on election night. And it always makes you nervous.
• 19:01
  Speaker 2: I was more focused on the working folks who were
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: disenfranchised by.
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: Oh, right, right. That too, that too.
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: But yes, it's going to make you feel better.
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: Thinking about the needle. It's always Kentucky and Indiana first.
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: Never good news.
• 19:13
  Speaker 2: We're going to call it the Nate Cone Bill.
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: So how much does this tell us, if anything, about
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: what might happen in Kentucky in 2020? Or then what
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: might happen overall in 2020? Let's start with Kentucky. Like,
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: is Mitch McConnell in danger here?
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: I think it... Bevin and McConnell are very different cases,
• 19:32
  Speaker 2: and we should just be very clear about that. Andy
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: Beshear is perhaps the perfect candidate to take on Matt Bevin.
• 19:38
  Speaker 2: His father was an incredibly popular governor. He had name recognition.
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: He had the right profile, ran a phenomenal campaign by
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: all accounts. But if Beshear had lost and... Kentucky had
• 19:51
  Speaker 2: reverted back to a 2016 style politics, that would be
• 19:55
  Speaker 2: a sign that McConnell was certain to win. This at
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: least shows that Democrats are in the game and that
• 20:01
  Speaker 2: you can put together a coalition to get to a
• 20:04
  Speaker 2: plurality in Kentucky because there was a third party candidate
• 20:07
  Speaker 2: got 2%. And McConnell is vulnerable. We should be crystal
• 20:12
  Speaker 2: clear about how hard it is to win Kentucky in
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: a presidential election year. But this should at least make
• 20:19
  Speaker 2: people in the McConnell campaign more nervous than they would
• 20:23
  Speaker 2: have been with a different result.
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean, McConnell has a 24 percent approval rating
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: in Kentucky. He's one of the most unpopular senators in
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: the whole country.
• 20:34
  Speaker 2: So it is literally one of the few things Americans
• 20:35
  Speaker 2: can agree on is that Mitch McConnell is terrible.
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: Yeah. But, like, you know, Democrats should be clear-eyed about
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: Andy Beshear and what kind of campaign he ran. He's
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: a moderate, right? And, like, Andy Beshear would not last
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: a couple seconds in the Democratic primary for president, right? Like,
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: he was asked, what do you think about Donald Trump?
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: And do you think he's a good person? And he said, oh,
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: I don't know, but I'll work with anyone to help Kentucky,
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: which is the right answer for Kentucky, but you could
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: imagine giving some Democrats some heartburn, you know?
• 21:06
  Speaker 3: So.
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: I think it would be immediately canceled. Yeah.
• 21:10
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: Like, I think it does show us that in some
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: of these redder states, there is a path to Democrats win.
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: But like it is a it is a moderate path.
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: You know, I mean, he he talked about shoring up
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: the Affordable Care Act and he was against the Medicare
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: work requirements. Right. So he had some good progressive positions,
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: but he ran as a moderate. He did.
• 21:32
  Speaker 2: But I will I will say that he is going to,
• 21:34
  Speaker 2: by executive order, restore voting rights to I think it's 130,000
• 21:40
  Speaker 2: formally convicted individuals. And that is not moderate by any definition.
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: Well, that's sort of my point. Because you could say,
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: why is this guy not attacking Trump more? But it's like,
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: all right, would you rather have Andy Beshear gone out
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: there and said bad things about Trump or now 140,000
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: people have their voting rights and a bunch of people
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: aren't going to get kicked off Medicaid? It's a pretty
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: good outcome. It's a pretty progressive outcome.
• 22:02
  Speaker 2: I do think we sometimes confuse moderate and centrist.
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: That's true.
• 22:07
  Speaker 2: That moderate can be a person who has a more
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: moderate approach and then a mix of quote unquote centrist
• 22:15
  Speaker 2: and progressive positions, right? Ralph Northam would be an excellent
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: example of that. Doug Jones would be another one. And
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: centrist is a different thing. Centrist is not an ideology.
• 22:24
  Speaker 2: It's an identity. It is a decision that you're going
• 22:26
  Speaker 2: to put yourself immediately equidistant between the two polls as
• 22:29
  Speaker 2: a way to try to win a majority of voters.
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: How would you... If you were running a campaign against
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: Mitch McConnell in Kentucky, what would that campaign look like?
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: It would be a labor of love. I would say that.
• 22:44
  Speaker 2: I think that the way to run against McConnell is
• 22:47
  Speaker 2: to run a campaign about him being not only a product,
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: but the actual creator of our broken political system. And
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: that he may have gone to Washington... as a Kentuckian,
• 23:04
  Speaker 2: but he became a creature of the swamp. And there
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: is a whole, he has gotten quite wealthy since he
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: went to Washington. There are very sketchy details about how
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: his office and former lobbyists have worked with his wife's department.
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: And it would just be, like, I worked in a
• 23:21
  Speaker 2: campaign for Tom Daschle, who was the Senate minority leader
• 23:25
  Speaker 2: of the time. He had been in Washington for a
• 23:26
  Speaker 2: very long time. The Republicans ran a very, very good
• 23:29
  Speaker 2: campaign that beat us by a couple points in the
• 23:32
  Speaker 2: year Bush won by showing people that he had lost
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: touch with South Dakota. I don't think that was an
• 23:38
  Speaker 2: accurate assessment of my friend Tom Daschle, but it was
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: an effective one. In this case, it would be both
• 23:44
  Speaker 2: effective and accurate. And you should hammer him 24-7 for
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: him losing touch with Kentucky and doing things to help
• 23:50
  Speaker 2: the National Republican Party and not the people of Kentucky.
• 23:52
  Speaker 2: And healthcare is at the center of that.
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: I was just going to say, I think proof point
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: number one is if you thought it was bad that
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: Matt Bevin... wanted to institute work requirements for Medicaid, Mitch
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: McConnell and his Washington Republican friends want to eliminate any
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: Medicaid expansion at all in Kentucky and the entire Affordable
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: Care Act and will if they are returned to Washington.
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: And very importantly, Mitch McConnell is the largest proponent in
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: Washington of cutting Social Security.
• 24:18
  Speaker 4: Yes. Yeah.
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: So you didn't like Bevin go after retirement benefits and
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: health care benefits? That's what Mitch McConnell wants to do.
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: So what lessons, if any... do you think Democrats should
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: take from this race?
• 24:30
  Speaker 2: Well, I think there's a comfort we should take from it.
• 24:32
  Speaker 2: I would say this about Kentucky and Virginia and everything else,
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: which is, like, there was some fear heading into Tuesday
• 24:40
  Speaker 2: night that, look, in 2017, people turned out in an
• 24:44
  Speaker 2: off-year gubernatorial and all these special elections because there was
• 24:46
  Speaker 2: nowhere else to channel our anger about what happened in 2016.
• 24:52
  Speaker 2: And then 2018 comes, and it's obviously one of the
• 24:54
  Speaker 2: most important elections in history because... We need a check
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: on Trump's corruption and criminality, something that's borne out every
• 25:00
  Speaker 2: day in this impeachment inquiry. But there was this fear
• 25:03
  Speaker 2: that now, once we had the House, that in the
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: 2020 election looming, that we would succumb to a combination
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: of complacency and distraction, right? That we would not, both
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: in the states in which the election was taking place,
• 25:19
  Speaker 2: and nationally in terms of volunteers and donations, be as engaged.
• 25:24
  Speaker 2: like we are looking potentially at the grand irony that
• 25:28
  Speaker 2: America's worst citizen becoming president has sparked a avalanche of
• 25:34
  Speaker 2: citizenship in America. And you're seeing people engage in these races.
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: And that is very, I think that is the most
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: important thing. So the lesson is, I think for Democrats
• 25:42
  Speaker 2: is activism works, organizing works. And you can, and that
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: if you, run everywhere, compete everywhere, you can win.
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: And not just around an election either. I mean, when
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: you listen to some of the stories about folks in Virginia,
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: they have been organizing on the ground in Virginia around
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: fights that don't have to necessarily do with an election
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: since Donald Trump became president and even before Donald Trump
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: became president. Turning Virginia blue was years in the making
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: and it required a lot of activism on the ground.
• 26:11
  Speaker 2: I often think because of Virginia's weird election cycles and
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: its one-term governorship, It has to be fucking exhausting to
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: be a Virginian. It's like 2016, where Virginia was supposed
• 26:23
  Speaker 2: to be competitive. 2017, governor's race. 2018, congressional races. 2019,
• 26:28
  Speaker 2: we have the fight for the assembly. And now, take
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: a nap, because here comes the presidential election again.
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: I know, it's pretty rough. But yeah, no, so activism works.
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: I also think, you know, it should tell people, don't
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: be afraid of impeachment. You know, because that certainly... It
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: is way too early to tell if impeachment is a
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: boon politically for Democrats, but it does not certainly seem
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: to be a drag on Democrats.
• 26:58
  Speaker 2: We spend a lot of time in sort of political
• 27:01
  Speaker 2: conversations talking about what turns out various bases, right? Democrats
• 27:06
  Speaker 2: shouldn't do X because it will excite Republicans. Republicans shouldn't
• 27:09
  Speaker 2: do X because it'll excite Democrats. And I think the
• 27:12
  Speaker 2: evidence has been pretty clear for the last three years
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: that People are excited. Turnout is up. And so the
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: sort of things that- On both sides. On both sides,
• 27:22
  Speaker 2: like so high. I suspect we are going to break
• 27:25
  Speaker 2: records in this Democratic primary, in the general election. And
• 27:30
  Speaker 2: we should, so I just think we should put less
• 27:33
  Speaker 2: stock in this sort of view as like, don't do eskimo,
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: excite the other side, right? Ooh, impeachment could cause Republicans
• 27:39
  Speaker 2: to run. Republicans are fucking turning out. So we should
• 27:41
  Speaker 2: worry about the things that excite our voters- And worry
• 27:44
  Speaker 2: about the things that persuade the voters that we need
• 27:46
  Speaker 2: to persuade and not worry about the things that might
• 27:48
  Speaker 2: excite the other side because they are coming out.
• 27:50
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: And I think it shows the unpopularity of Trump's agenda
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: and the Republican agenda as well, which sometimes gets lost
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: in a lot of the discussion is about Trump's character
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: and how offensive he is, stuff like that. And clearly
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: that is turning away and has turned away a lot
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: of the college educated crew and former Republicans. But there
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: is this untapped set of issues that, you know, about
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: taking away health care, taking away retirement benefits. And look,
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: I noticed this from the focus groups I did, too.
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: Even when you talk about things that Trump has already
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: done on the policy front, it is not necessarily as
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: powerful as talking about what he is going to do
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: in a second term. I talked about ACA and they
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: were like, yeah, you know, like we've heard this before.
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: But when I talked about how much of you heard
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: about Trump's budget and Social Security and Medicare, you know,
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: everyone perked up. A couple people had heard, I heard
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: something about, you know, taking away Social Security benefits or
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: cutting Social Security benefits. And that's horrible to me. And
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: these were Trump voters, you know. And so I think
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: that could be a really powerful argument. And we found
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: that in our polling. What lessons of any should Republicans
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: take from this race? So, you know, Trump's lesson is
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: apparently that he's really helped Matt Bevin jump 15 points
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: in the polls, but wasn't enough. But look, Matt Bevin...
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: brought Donald Trump to Kentucky the night before the election.
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: He also made the race, he tried to nationalize the race,
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: he made it about impeachment. I think we have a
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: clip about Matt Bevin talking about impeachment the day, was
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: it the day before the race, I think? I think
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: it was Monday.
• 29:29
  Speaker 4: The fact that you ask why this is being nationalized
• 29:32
  Speaker 4: and why people are talking about President Trump would indicate
• 29:35
  Speaker 4: to me that you really have sort of maybe come
• 29:37
  Speaker 4: out from under a rock, because here in America, that's pretty.
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: Topical every night.
• 29:41
  Speaker 4: And the fact that it's being talked about in Kentucky
• 29:43
  Speaker 4: should not be a surprise. The president is talked about
• 29:46
  Speaker 4: pretty much every night on every network everywhere in America.
• 29:50
  Speaker 4: And people in Kentucky are no exception. We're not going
• 29:52
  Speaker 4: to Pretend that we're not part of the United States
• 29:55
  Speaker 4: of America. We are part of the United States of America.
• 29:57
  Speaker 4: But you don't have a vote on impeachment or not.
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: I mean, we're talking about.
• 30:00
  Speaker 4: Is this a civics lesson now? You think I don't
• 30:03
  Speaker 4: understand what the role is? Talk to the average person.
• 30:05
  Speaker 4: Ask the next 100 people who come in here if
• 30:08
  Speaker 4: they care about this impeachment process. And they will tell you,
• 30:11
  Speaker 4: almost to a person, that they do. Because they find
• 30:14
  Speaker 4: it to be a charade. It's an absolute sham. And
• 30:18
  Speaker 4: we care about this because we're part of the United
• 30:20
  Speaker 4: States of America. And we don't appreciate... when a handful
• 30:23
  Speaker 4: of knuckleheads in Washington abdicate their responsibility as elected officials
• 30:29
  Speaker 4: and try to gin up things that are not true
• 30:33
  Speaker 4: because they can't handle the fact that Hillary Clinton didn't win.
• 30:36
  Speaker 4: That's why this is talked about here and everywhere else
• 30:39
  Speaker 4: in America. You're going to find the same thing today
• 30:41
  Speaker 4: in Mississippi, the same thing in Louisiana, and you'll find
• 30:44
  Speaker 4: the same thing in 45 other states next fall. And
• 30:48
  Speaker 4: you're going to not stop hearing about it until the
• 30:50
  Speaker 4: people in Washington can handle the fact that Donald Trump
• 30:53
  Speaker 4: got elected once, and he's pretty certainly going to get
• 30:56
  Speaker 4: re-elected based on the cast of characters running against him.
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know how you can make it
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: more about impeachment than Matt Bevin just did. At the
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: beginning half of that, I found myself agreeing very much
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: that people all over the country are watching the same
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: national news about Donald Trump and impeachment, only it didn't
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: really work out for him in Kentucky.
• 31:19
  Speaker 2: I have two non-serious points, which stand in stark contrast
• 31:21
  Speaker 2: to all my very serious points.
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: Great, great, great.
• 31:23
  Speaker 2: I like that. One is, I really enjoy how you
• 31:26
  Speaker 2: always intro a clip with, I think we have.
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: Sometimes I don't know.
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: It's your company. These people all work for you.
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: I know. Well, you know, I'm always like prepping for
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: the pod. Michael's sending me clips, doing everything he should.
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: Kyle's got it up there. And I'm like, did I
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: ask for that? Is it there? I don't know.
• 31:41
  Speaker 2: The other thing I found interesting about that clip was,
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: what's going to happen in the other five states? Why
• 31:45
  Speaker 2: did he say 45 states?
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: No, I'm sure it's part of the right-wing fever dream
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: information environment where they think that the Democrats are going
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: to win California, New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut. Maybe that's it.
• 31:58
  Speaker 4: I don't know.
• 31:59
  Speaker 2: It's like something's going to happen in 45 states.
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: Illinois, yeah, that's it. They think Trump's going to win
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: 45 states.
• 32:04
  Speaker 2: I think for when you think about this, you're exactly right.
• 32:08
  Speaker 2: There was nothing that happened on Tuesday night that says
• 32:11
  Speaker 2: Democrats should be scared of impeachment. It certainly didn't create
• 32:14
  Speaker 2: some sort of Republican revolt of the silent majority or whatever.
• 32:18
  Speaker 2: I think the results also should, we can talk about
• 32:22
  Speaker 2: what it means for Trump because of the anti-democratic vagaries
• 32:27
  Speaker 2: of the electoral college limits on the impact of it.
• 32:29
  Speaker 2: But if I was a Republican senator up for reelection,
• 32:33
  Speaker 2: what I saw on Tuesday would make me very nervous
• 32:35
  Speaker 2: because you see this revolt of the suburbs, you see
• 32:39
  Speaker 2: incredibly jacked up Democratic turnout And you see ticket splitting.
• 32:44
  Speaker 2: And that, I think that is very concerning if you
• 32:48
  Speaker 2: are Martha McSally or Cory.
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: Gardner or Susan Collins, right.
• 32:53
  Speaker 2: Or Georgia or any of these other states, Tom Tillis,
• 32:55
  Speaker 2: North Carolina. And so there's lots of reasons to be
• 32:59
  Speaker 2: nervous for that. And it's like the realignment causes problems
• 33:06
  Speaker 2: for Republicans in certain states and they have Senate races
• 33:09
  Speaker 2: happening in, a number of those states.
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: You pointed out in the outline that you found this
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: Washington Post story about sort of Republican concerns over impeachment
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: and the races on Tuesday very compelling, specifically this line. Still,
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: the Kentucky defeat has sparked concern among the party's donors
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: and many longtime GOP leaders who are worried that the
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: nonstop twists of the House impeachment inquiry and Trump's growing
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: fury are making it increasingly difficult for Republicans to make
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: a clear and compelling case to voters. this is basically
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: why I wanted to do the impeachment thing. Right? Because
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: it could be, and we'll talk about this when we
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: get to the poll, it could be a wash politically
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: in the end. It could. But every day that we
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: make this election about, like, Donald Trump's abuses of power,
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: his crimes, his wrongdoing, and he's freaking out and saying
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: all kinds of crazy shit is another day that Donald
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: Trump and the Republicans aren't talking about all the things
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: they want to talk about, which is not this. No
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: Republican strategist would tell you that this is what they
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: really want to talk about every day between now and
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: the election.
• 34:18
  Speaker 2: I mean, this is the opportunity cost for Trump in
• 34:21
  Speaker 2: the impeachment thing. I've told this story before, but on
• 34:26
  Speaker 2: Labor Day 2011, Barack Obama's poll numbers were as low
• 34:31
  Speaker 2: as Trump's. We were losing to a generic Republican in
• 34:36
  Speaker 2: every battleground state. And between Labor Day in December, Obama
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: took his approval rating from 42 to 49. And he
• 34:46
  Speaker 2: did that by focusing on the economy. He had a
• 34:48
  Speaker 2: clear lane because the Republicans were fighting with each other
• 34:51
  Speaker 2: in an absurd primary that involved Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich,
• 34:54
  Speaker 2: Herman Cain, Rick Santorum, the leading lights of the conservative movement.
• 34:58
  Speaker 2: And they were fighting over incredibly stupid things. They were
• 35:00
  Speaker 2: going as far to the right on immigration and things
• 35:02
  Speaker 2: as they could. And Obama was out there just talking
• 35:04
  Speaker 2: about the economy, being president. Obama's approval rating on election
• 35:09
  Speaker 2: day when he won a large electoral landslide was 49.
• 35:11
  Speaker 2: For all the things that happened in 2012, debates, gaffes,
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: et cetera, the work, the most work that was done
• 35:22
  Speaker 2: to get Obama elected happened in the fall of 2011.
• 35:25
  Speaker 2: Trump and the Republicans are now spending that time having
• 35:29
  Speaker 2: an absurd discussion around impeachment. Not that impeachment's absurd. Their
• 35:35
  Speaker 2: discussion about it is absurd and they are They are
• 35:38
  Speaker 2: freaking out, having temper tantrums, exhibiting the behavior that our
• 35:41
  Speaker 2: previous polling has shown is very detrimental to Trump. And
• 35:43
  Speaker 2: so in that sense, Trump is losing his best opportunity
• 35:47
  Speaker 2: to gain strength against a divided Democratic Party.
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean, I remember we did the sort of
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: jobs bill speech in the early fall, and then we
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: treated the State of the Union in 2012, which is
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: now in a couple months, as basically sort of laying
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: out our reelection message. in front of Congress. Who knows
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: what Trump's state of the union is going to be like?
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: Will he be in the middle of impeachment? Will there
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: be a trial? Now, this is talking in November of 2019.
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: Once we get past impeachment, who knows? The environment could change,
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: but it means less time for him to sort of
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: catch up.
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: It is an erosion of the advantage of incumbency.
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: All right, speaking of impeachment, we have the results of
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: our latest poll with Change Research. We polled 971 voters
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: across the country from October 31st to November 3rd about
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: their views on the impeachment inquiry. We also tested to
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: find out which are the most persuasive evidence and arguments
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: to voters. You can find the full results on cricket.com,
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: along with a great piece by Brian Boitler about this.
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: But we will go through some highlights right now.
• 37:03
  Speaker 2: Is he still pro-impeachment?
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: He's still pro-impeachment.
• 37:05
  Speaker 2: Just checking.
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's tough to tell.
• 37:07
  Speaker 2: It's tough. It's weird. His new column is called Confirmation Bias.
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: First, we found that 53% of respondents support the impeachment
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: inquiry while 45% are opposed, and that 51% of those
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: polled support impeaching Trump and removing him from office, while
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: 46% are opposed. The partisan breakdown is extreme. 94% of
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: Democratic-leaning voters support the inquiry, while 94% of Republican-leaning voters
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: oppose it. But, 51% of independents, and 60% of swing
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: voters favor the impeachment inquiry. Dan, what were your main
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: takeaways from the poll?
• 37:43
  Speaker 2: America seems quite polarized.
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: My goodness.
• 37:47
  Speaker 2: But you can look at that two ways. One could be, well,
• 37:49
  Speaker 2: this doesn't matter. Everyone's minds are made. And that is
• 37:52
  Speaker 2: true for the overwhelming majority of Americans, but that is
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: true about everything in politics these days for the overwhelming
• 37:58
  Speaker 2: majority of Americans. But the difference in Getting that number
• 38:04
  Speaker 2: among independents from 51 to 60 has dramatic electoral consequences.
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: Dramatic. Right. Upping that swing vote number from 60 to 70. Yeah.
• 38:14
  Speaker 2: Dramatic electoral consequences in the key battleground states. And so
• 38:18
  Speaker 2: it is an argument that Democrats have the wind at
• 38:20
  Speaker 2: their back. There is room for growth. And there is
• 38:27
  Speaker 2: huge imperative to continue to tell the story in a
• 38:30
  Speaker 2: very compelling visual way. The thing we should caution ourselves
• 38:34
  Speaker 2: with is there's nothing in this poll that suggests we
• 38:38
  Speaker 2: are in this world where we are one, two, three,
• 38:42
  Speaker 2: 17 revelations away from a collapse of the Republican support
• 38:46
  Speaker 2: for Trump.
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 38:47
  Speaker 2: Like that, Trump's base is locked in. That virtually guarantees
• 38:52
  Speaker 2: that how the Senate will react no matter what the
• 38:54
  Speaker 2: rest of the House finds because they are the, I
• 38:57
  Speaker 2: don't know who the tail on the dog is and
• 38:59
  Speaker 2: who's wagging who, but As long as Trump's base sticks
• 39:02
  Speaker 2: with Trump, there is no political incentive for Republicans to
• 39:05
  Speaker 2: do the right thing. Yeah.
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: I mean, look, there are an extremely small percentage of
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: voters in this poll whose minds are not made up
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: already on impeachment, whether you're Democrat, Republican, independent. I think
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: it was like 2% or something like that. You'll have
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: to look in the poll. So there's not a lot
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: of persuasion to do here. And by the way, we
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: go through this whole battery of evidence, messaging, because I
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: should say, one thing we did learn is a very
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: high percentage of people in this poll had heard about
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: the impeachment inquiry in general, the whistleblower, and the call
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: with Zelensky. 55% have heard a lot about the Trump
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: administration officials testifying, which is not a lot. And so
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: there's a lot of people in this poll who have
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: made up their minds about impeachment without even knowing about
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: all the stuff that's going to come out, that has
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: already come out about the witnesses and that we're going
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: to see on television. So the ability to persuade, I think,
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: is fairly limited. And like you said, I think that
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: should both give the Democrats hope that there's not going
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: to be some backlash and but it should also temper
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: our hopes that there's going to be some huge swing
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: towards us because of impeachment. This very well could be
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: a wash at the end. Is the poll, do you think,
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: an argument for a longer and broader inquiry or a
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: shorter and narrower inquiry? I should start by saying voters
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: want Democrats to expand the investigation beyond Ukraine if evidence
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: points to additional abuses of power. 51% hold this view.
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: While only 17% believe that the inquiry should focus exclusively
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: on Ukraine, another 32% are unsure.
• 40:49
  Speaker 2: This is sort of a pundit-esque cop-out answer that I
• 40:52
  Speaker 2: think it is an argument for Democrats to follow the
• 40:55
  Speaker 2: evidence where it goes.
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 40:57
  Speaker 2: And not allow an arbitrary deadline to cause them to
• 41:03
  Speaker 2: short-circuit the investigation. Because I think that would have blowback
• 41:07
  Speaker 2: on our own side, right?
• 41:08
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 41:09
  Speaker 2: There is definitely a concerted effort to slow this down,
• 41:12
  Speaker 2: to try to force the Democrats to, in order to
• 41:15
  Speaker 2: abide by their deadline, to vote before you get all
• 41:18
  Speaker 2: the best witnesses, right, in front of a television camera.
• 41:21
  Speaker 2: And I think that's going to be where they're going
• 41:22
  Speaker 2: to have to make a decision. I think, obviously, a
• 41:27
  Speaker 2: fishing expedition, going into a million things, getting back into
• 41:30
  Speaker 2: all the Mueller report, that probably is, I don't know
• 41:33
  Speaker 2: how much it hurts, but I don't think it's helpful, right?
• 41:35
  Speaker 2: But I think If all of a sudden it's like
• 41:38
  Speaker 2: we get to Thanksgiving, it's like we haven't heard from
• 41:41
  Speaker 2: some of the key witnesses yet because of court battles
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: or whatever else. And we're just like, well, we're going
• 41:45
  Speaker 2: to vote and call that a day. I think that
• 41:46
  Speaker 2: would be problematic.
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I do too. I'm sort of in the, this
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: is also sound pundit-like, but I'm sort of in the
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: medium camp.
• 41:53
  Speaker 2: Oh, here's our message to you, Nancy Pelosi. Goldilocks strategy.
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: No, because realizing that we pay incredibly close attention to
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: all this, probably most of our listeners do as well.
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: But in this poll, there's a lot of people who
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: still don't have basic information about this. I think the
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: public testimony in the coming weeks will be incredibly important.
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: It made me think, you know, that today there was
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: news that John Bolton said that if he is cleared
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: by the court, which, of course, opening arguments aren't until
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: December on the case that would let him testify, he
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: would testify and he would even testify about private conversations
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: he had with the president. So it could be incredibly
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: damning for the president's own former national security advisor to
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: testify against him. And I think it takes time for
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: people in the country who have busy lives and are
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: not paying attention to the news to really understand everything
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: that's happening. And that takes repetition and that takes a
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: little time. And so I think Democrats should take that
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: time to make sure that everyone knows. But I also
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: could see a situation where if we're still sitting here
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: in March or April, doing this, that people could tire
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: of this and have sort of fatigue over this, especially
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: because so many minds are already made up. So I
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: do worry about that. We also tested the most effective
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: evidence and messaging around impeachment and found that the most
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: persuasive pieces of evidence are the damning testimony from Trump officials.
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: Mick Mulvaney's admission of a quid pro quo at the
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: press conference was up there. The White House hiding the
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: call transcripts, not only of Zelensky, but with leaders in
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: Saudi Arabia and Russia on a secret server was very persuasive,
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: and the White House blocking officials from testifying. So I
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: should say that the margins for all of the arguments
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: were very slim. So these are like small, small differences,
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: but those four were the most popular arguments. When we
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: tested different arguments for impeachment, messaging arguments, the clear winner
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: there was about Colonel Vindman. And the message we tested was,
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: the top Ukraine expert on President Trump's National Security Council,
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: a decorated war hero who was on the July call
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: between President Trump and Ukraine's president, testified that the White
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: House erased the most politically damaging parts of the call
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: from the transcript they released to the public. So that
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: led in the messaging. Dan, what did you think of
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: all the evidence and message testing? Anything stand out to you?
• 44:12
  Speaker 2: What I took from it was the fact that for
• 44:16
  Speaker 2: most voters, the cover-up is evidence of the crime.
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: Yeah, cover-up still works really well. Anything that was secret,
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: anything that was blocking people from testifying. That was persuasive.
• 44:26
  Speaker 2: I think you can confuse people a lot about what
• 44:30
  Speaker 2: a quid pro quo is, how it relates to Ukrainian corruption.
• 44:33
  Speaker 2: What do politicians typically do? We've seen other polls that
• 44:35
  Speaker 2: talk about how this is something that they think presidents
• 44:38
  Speaker 2: of both parties would do. I think that's confusing, right?
• 44:43
  Speaker 2: But what people do understand that when you do something,
• 44:46
  Speaker 2: that the evidence you did something wrong is your attempt
• 44:48
  Speaker 2: to hide it. And so when you start doctoring transcripts
• 44:52
  Speaker 2: or putting... hiding call transcripts on secret servers, that is
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: proof to people who don't really understand exactly what a
• 44:59
  Speaker 2: crime is in this situation, that the Trump people know
• 45:04
  Speaker 2: Trump did something very wrong. And so I think that
• 45:07
  Speaker 2: the focus on the cover-up about the crime is a
• 45:09
  Speaker 2: very trite thing to say, but I think it matters
• 45:12
  Speaker 2: a lot to voters here because it cuts through the
• 45:14
  Speaker 2: confusion of what the crime is.
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's, I took that same point too.
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: The other one in our pollster mentioned this too, that
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: credentialing Vindman war hero, decorated veteran did, it had an
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: effect on specifically Republicans, right? Who didn't move towards impeachment,
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: but moved towards, oh, maybe it doesn't make a difference
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: or like neutral, you know? And so I think that's
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: the thing. The other thing is right behind the Colonel
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: Vindman message, the next two that worked were one that
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: had to do with Trump's abuse of power and one
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: that had to do with no one is above the law,
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: not even the president. So I think you understand why
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: sort of Democrats are fitting all of these, you know,
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: crimes under abuse of power and trying to make value
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: statements about the president, right? No one in this country
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: is above the law. Everyone should be held accountable, even
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: the president of the United States, and the president shouldn't
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: abuse his office for political gain, right? These do not
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: have specifics as much attached to them, but they are
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: just value statements that people agree with.
• 46:12
  Speaker 2: And it speaks to the general perception of Trump that
• 46:16
  Speaker 2: that's pushing on an open door, right? It is very
• 46:19
  Speaker 2: believable to people, regardless of what you think about this,
• 46:22
  Speaker 2: that Trump has used his office for political gain and
• 46:24
  Speaker 2: that Trump.
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: Has abused power.
• 46:26
  Speaker 2: He's just like a walking high crime in that sense.
• 46:29
  Speaker 2: And I think the question, I think the no one's
• 46:32
  Speaker 2: above all nine in the president is an incredibly important message.
• 46:34
  Speaker 2: That is a message that is more about Democrats justifying
• 46:37
  Speaker 2: to voters why they're doing this than it is about
• 46:39
  Speaker 2: persuading voters about Trump. But that is very important because
• 46:43
  Speaker 2: we got a lot of Democrats in these purple and
• 46:46
  Speaker 2: red districts who are gonna need some people who voted
• 46:48
  Speaker 2: for Trump in 16 and voted for them in 18
• 46:51
  Speaker 2: to understand why they went down this path and stick
• 46:54
  Speaker 2: with them in 20. And so I think that's a
• 46:55
  Speaker 2: very important message.
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: Anything make you nervous in the poll?
• 46:59
  Speaker 2: I mean, the whole thing makes me nervous for democracy.
• 47:02
  Speaker 2: The stat in there about people who primarily get their
• 47:06
  Speaker 2: news from Fox News.
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: Oh.
• 47:07
  Speaker 2: Yeah, please do that one.
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: Yeah, so one other interesting finding. Republicans who watch Fox News,
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: and the way we asked it is, what is your
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: primary source of information about impeachment? And so people who
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: said Fox News... are much likelier to think the allegations
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: are false than other Republicans. 89% of Republicans who get
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: most of their impeachment news from Fox oppose the inquiry
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: because they think the allegations aren't true. Not they think
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: they were wrong, but not impeachable, which is also a
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: choice we gave them. But they just don't believe any
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: of the allegations. 59% of other Republicans say the same.
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: That's a 30-point gap just among Republicans. And I should
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: also say the other interesting stat, we took Trump's name
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: and Biden's name off the specific abuse of power and
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: just said, you know, do you think it's right? Or
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: do you think it's impeachable for a president of either
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: party to pressure a foreign government into smearing his political opponent?
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: And the numbers jumped up to 60% believe it's impeachable
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: as opposed to the 51% we have when Trump and
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: Biden's names are attached.
• 48:09
  Speaker 2: But that, that part is not surprising and like in
• 48:13
  Speaker 2: all things, right? Like, I mean, you remember in, um,
• 48:17
  Speaker 2: in the Obama administration, if you tested the Trans-Pacific Partnership
• 48:22
  Speaker 2: in polling, it polled terribly because Democrats and Republicans opposed trade.
• 48:28
  Speaker 2: If you called it Obama's trade deal, then the numbers
• 48:31
  Speaker 2: went up because Democrats then reverted to their standard support
• 48:36
  Speaker 2: of Obama. The Fox thing is, I think, really scary. Like,
• 48:41
  Speaker 2: joke's not the right word, but we talk all the
• 48:43
  Speaker 2: time about the dangerous role Fox plays, but Fox News
• 48:47
  Speaker 2: exists because of a decades-old conservative strategy to nullify the
• 48:52
  Speaker 2: idea of objective truth. And they have been phenomenally successful
• 48:57
  Speaker 2: to the point they can convince a significant portion of
• 49:00
  Speaker 2: the base of one of our two political parties that
• 49:03
  Speaker 2: the truth is not the truth. And that is a
• 49:08
  Speaker 2: very scary thought. It's a very hard thing to undo.
• 49:11
  Speaker 2: It also speaks.
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: I think it's the most dangerous... development in our democracy
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: in the last however many decades. Number one.
• 49:18
  Speaker 2: It is involved in a symbiotic relationship with another development,
• 49:22
  Speaker 2: which is it also speaks to the inability of the
• 49:27
  Speaker 2: traditional media to push back on that. That's a combination
• 49:32
  Speaker 2: of a million things that involve the Republican strategy and
• 49:35
  Speaker 2: involves how Facebook and Google have sort of helped destroy
• 49:40
  Speaker 2: the economics of traditional media, filter bubbles, all of that.
• 49:44
  Speaker 2: But that is a very dangerous place for American politics
• 49:48
  Speaker 2: to be. And it's completely on one side, to be
• 49:51
  Speaker 2: very clear.
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: Let's remember how one of the reasons that Fox News
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: started and how it started, Roger Ailes, who worked for Nixon,
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: said if Nixon had only had Fox News during his
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: impeachment hearings, he would have survived it. So let's make
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: sure we have a propaganda arm like that.
• 50:10
  Speaker 2: And that's what they did. I can think of nothing
• 50:11
  Speaker 2: more dangerous than a collection of foreign political operatives starting
• 50:14
  Speaker 2: a media company.
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: Why do you think we did it? No, and look, it's, again,
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: another thing I was surprised about in these focus groups
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: is the strong distaste and distrust for the media. But
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: Fox News has won in that there's a lot of
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: people who told me, I don't trust the media at
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: all because it's all biased. I have to check Fox
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: and then I have to check CNN because they're on
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: both sides of the spectrum. Like, people think that CNN...
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: People don't like Fox and don't necessarily trust Fox, at
• 50:46
  Speaker 1: least these swing voters, but they have also bought into
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: the idea that CNN is the liberal equivalent of Fox News,
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: which would make us scream. Because none of us who
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: work in Democratic politics, who've worked in Democratic politics... ever
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: think that CNN is the liberal equivalent of Fox News.
• 51:04
  Speaker 2: There's no liberal equivalent of Fox News.
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: There is not. MSNBC is not the equivalent of the
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: liberal equivalent of Fox News. So, obviously Democrats have a
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: lot to work with here, looking at this poll. But
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: they're also facing, you know, a bunch of Republicans like
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: Lindsey Graham, who's now saying he refuses to read the
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: transcripts of the witness testimony because the whole thing is BS,
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: is in his words. Based on that dynamic and what
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: we learned from the poll... What advice would you give
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: Adam Schiff and the Democrats running the hearings next week?
• 51:35
  Speaker 2: I think it is focus. Use the cover-up as evidence
• 51:38
  Speaker 2: of the crime. There is a very real danger of
• 51:42
  Speaker 2: overcomplicating this. Republicans are going to try to gum up
• 51:45
  Speaker 2: the works. And so it has to be tremendous repetition
• 51:50
  Speaker 2: of the very simple principle that Trump abused his power
• 51:55
  Speaker 2: to interfere in an American election and then try to
• 51:58
  Speaker 2: cover it up. And here's the evidence. And don't take
• 52:00
  Speaker 2: our word for it. Take the word of these career
• 52:04
  Speaker 2: nonpartisan professionals and the word of Trump's actual staff. This
• 52:10
  Speaker 2: is where Gordon Sondland's revision of his testimony. It's easy.
• 52:13
  Speaker 1: Huge deal.
• 52:14
  Speaker 2: It is deeply dishonest, but easy to call these career ambassadors,
• 52:19
  Speaker 2: these intelligence officials, the whistleblower, to call them deep state operatives.
• 52:24
  Speaker 2: It is much harder to say that Gordon Sondland $ 1
• 52:29
  Speaker 2: million donor to Donald Trump, who then Donald Trump then
• 52:32
  Speaker 2: appointed ambassador.
• 52:33
  Speaker 1: Literally paid a million dollars for an ambassadorship.
• 52:36
  Speaker 4: Yes.
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: That's this guy.
• 52:38
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 52:40
  Speaker 2: And for him to say there's a quid pro quo,
• 52:43
  Speaker 2: that is much harder to dispute.
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Though Lindsey Graham is certainly trying already. He was
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: on Fox saying, um, You know, I saw that Gordon Sondland,
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: he kept calling him Sonderland, so that's how much Lindsey
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: Graham is paying attention.
• 52:55
  Speaker 2: Well, he hasn't read the transcripts.
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: Right, he hasn't read the transcripts. He said, you know,
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: he revised his testimony, and I'm a lawyer, and I
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: want to know if he was in cahoots with Adam Schiff,
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: and that's why he revised his testimony. So they're going
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: to try, literally, I mean, I was saying this to
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: you on Twitter, like, every Trump staffer, every Trump supporter,
• 53:14
  Speaker 1: Trump fan, is one honest statement about the president from
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: becoming an Ever Trumper. That's how it goes. You are
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: either 100% loyal to Donald Trump and believe everything he
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: says is right and wonderful and brilliant. And if you
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: break away even a little bit, you're a never-Trumper Democrat,
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: and you always have.
• 53:30
  Speaker 2: I mean, you're like John Brennan's intern.
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: But no, I do think Jim Jordan and the Republicans
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: are going to try to turn this into a circus.
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: They're going to try to turn it into a partisan circus.
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: Their one hope here is to say this is a
• 53:44
  Speaker 1: purely partisan exercise. Democrats have wanted to get Trump forever.
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: They're all lying. look at how they fucked this whole
• 53:50
  Speaker 1: thing up with the process and all that. They're going
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: to turn it into a circus. And I think Democrats
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: have to be calm, cool, collected, and repetitive about the
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: facts of the case, the idea that it's an abuse
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: of power, and the idea that they tried to cover
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: it up, which gets to the motivation.
• 54:04
  Speaker 2: And you said this on the Monday podcast, but it
• 54:07
  Speaker 2: needs to be scripted like a television show, not just
• 54:09
  Speaker 2: in the various episodes, right? Like what order are we
• 54:13
  Speaker 2: going to do Bill Taylor, Gordon Sondland, Vindman, you know,
• 54:17
  Speaker 2: Mick Mulvaney, who are other people we might get access to.
• 54:20
  Speaker 2: But how do we script the episodes themselves, right? What
• 54:24
  Speaker 2: is each member taking on? What order are they taking
• 54:26
  Speaker 2: it on in? And then who is assigned with pushing
• 54:29
  Speaker 2: back on which Republican argument, right? It has to be
• 54:31
  Speaker 2: just very incredibly scripted. Also, just as one point of preference,
• 54:38
  Speaker 2: no opening statements before your questions. Just ask the questions.
• 54:42
  Speaker 1: The exception there is Adam Schiff. who should give an
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: opening statement that lays out the story the way he'd,
• 54:48
  Speaker 1: I mean, remember the most effective statement during the Mueller
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: episode was Adam Schiff's opening statement where he sort of
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: laid out all the facts of the case in a
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: story that was accessible and compelling to people. He does
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: that very well. And I think, and I imagine, you know,
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: Schiff starting with Bill Taylor next week, I believe. I
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: imagine he's going to lay out the story, not just
• 55:11
  Speaker 1: in a way that's most compelling with the most compelling witnesses,
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: but in a logical order that's easy for everyone to understand.
• 55:17
  Speaker 2: Do you think Schiff should read the call transcript, word
• 55:20
  Speaker 2: for word?
• 55:22
  Speaker 1: I would. With the edits that Colonel Vindman made originally? Yeah, probably.
• 55:29
  Speaker 2: I mean, even without the edits, it is.
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: He should say that President Trump keeps asking us to
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: read the transcript, so here you go.
• 55:35
  Speaker 2: I have millions of people watching me. Let's read it.
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll read it.
• 55:39
  Speaker 2: It seems more effective... Yes, I think we should.
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: The other... I think you should read the text messages.
• 55:43
  Speaker 1: I think you should read the call summary. I mean,
• 55:46
  Speaker 1: he's got a lot of witness testimony.
• 55:49
  Speaker 2: And going back to the point about opening statements, we
• 55:51
  Speaker 2: would give the same advice to members of Congress that
• 55:53
  Speaker 2: we give people who ask questions at our live shows.
• 55:58
  Speaker 2: If your sentence ends in a period instead of a
• 56:00
  Speaker 2: question mark, it's not a question.
• 56:02
  Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I agree with that. All right, let's talk
• 56:05
  Speaker 1: about 2020. Here's what's going on in the Democratic primary
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: right now. Last week, Elizabeth Warren released her plan to
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: finance Medicare for all without raising middle class taxes. In response,
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: Joe Biden called her plan, quote, mathematical gymnastics. In response
• 56:19
  Speaker 1: to that, Elizabeth Warren noted that it was former Obama
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: economists and health care experts who did the math. And
• 56:25
  Speaker 1: then she said, quote, Democrats are not going to win
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: by repeating Republican talking points. If anyone wants to defend
• 56:32
  Speaker 1: keeping those high profits for insurance companies, then I think
• 56:35
  Speaker 1: they're running in the wrong presidential primary. In response to that,
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: Joe Biden said, We know best, you know nothing.
• 56:41
  Speaker 4: Woof.
• 57:06
  Speaker 2: I found that exhausting.
• 57:08
  Speaker 1: Exhausting. So let's actually start with the substance of Warren's
• 57:12
  Speaker 1: plan before we move on to the politics of the
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: back and forth. She says her plan will cost.
• 57:17
  Speaker 2: Which is important because we are both trained health economists.
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: Yes, we're big and we love substance here. She says
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: her plan costs $ 20 trillion, which is less than Bernie's
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: $ 30 trillion plan, and that she'll cover the cost by
• 57:30
  Speaker 1: increasing her wealth tax on billionaires from 3% to 6%,
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: taxing capital gains for the top 1%, the same as income,
• 57:37
  Speaker 1: taxing financial transactions like stock trades, and taking the money
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: that employers currently spend on health care and shifting 98%
• 57:45
  Speaker 1: of it towards the new Medicare program. And then she
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: gets the rest of the money by going after waste
• 57:50
  Speaker 1: and fraud, Medicare and health care, passing immigration reform, and
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: a few other things. Does this work in terms of math?
• 57:56
  Speaker 1: And does this work in terms of a politically acceptable
• 57:59
  Speaker 1: answer for Warren? What do you think?
• 58:01
  Speaker 2: I have no idea if it works in terms of math.
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: You've not whipped out your calculator and double-checked Don Berwick's
• 58:10
  Speaker 1: calculations here?
• 58:12
  Speaker 2: I'm glad you brought up Don Berwick. A series of
• 58:14
  Speaker 2: very credible people looked at this. The financing of all
• 58:18
  Speaker 2: campaign plans, all legislation in its draft form is kind
• 58:25
  Speaker 2: of bullshit, right?
• 58:26
  Speaker 1: Not necessarily bullshit, but it's a little.
• 58:32
  Speaker 1: It's a little hocus pocus.
• 58:33
  Speaker 2: Yeah, there's, yes, exactly. There's smoke and mirrors there, right?
• 58:37
  Speaker 2: It's like half of the bills in Congress are funded
• 58:40
  Speaker 2: by improving tax collection and getting rid of waste and
• 58:44
  Speaker 2: fraud like that. It's a, you're just trying to cobble
• 58:47
  Speaker 2: together a set of pay of, pay-fors that reach whatever
• 58:51
  Speaker 2: the cost of your bill is.
• 58:52
  Speaker 1: And look, and part of this is politics, but part
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: of this is not knowing what will happen in the
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: future after certain policies are passed, right?
• 58:58
  Speaker 2: It's all theoretical.
• 59:00
  Speaker 1: There is an argument about how much healthcare spending there
• 59:05
  Speaker 1: would be under Medicare for All. We don't know yet
• 59:07
  Speaker 1: because we don't know how many people would use how
• 59:09
  Speaker 1: much healthcare online. under a new system. We just don't know,
• 59:11
  Speaker 1: so you have to project.
• 59:13
  Speaker 2: And it's based on population growth, economic growth, all these things.
• 59:16
  Speaker 2: It's impossible to figure out.
• 59:17
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 59:17
  Speaker 2: So I don't know about the math. Smart people, people
• 59:20
  Speaker 2: much smarter than I, say the math works. I'll take
• 59:23
  Speaker 2: their word for it. I do think it answers the
• 59:26
  Speaker 2: male question. politically in the sense that we have a
• 59:29
  Speaker 2: debate coming up in a couple weeks, which also seems exhausting.
• 59:33
  Speaker 2: And this has been really the only weak spot in
• 59:37
  Speaker 2: any of Elizabeth Warren's debate performance. This has been about
• 59:40
  Speaker 2: getting wrapped around the axle about this question of raising taxes.
• 59:43
  Speaker 2: This now allows her to say, I have a plan.
• 59:47
  Speaker 2: I will not raise taxes on the middle class.
• 59:49
  Speaker 1: Done. Yeah. No, I think that's right. She also said
• 59:52
  Speaker 1: that she would be saying more about the transition from
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: from the private health insurance system to a Medicare-like single-payer
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 1: system in the coming weeks? Do you think that's smart?
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 1: Or in the coming months, maybe?
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 2: Well, we'll have to see what she says and whether
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 2: it's smart. I think the elimination of private insurance causes
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 2: concern for lots of people because it's just healthcare politics
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 2: is always a battle between your dissatisfaction with the known
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 2: and your fear of the unknown, right? And So lots
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 2: of people have lots of... We pretend like people love
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 2: their private insurance. And I'm sure some people do. Some
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 2: people must love all kinds of things. But it's more
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 2: that they're okay with it. And they are nervous about
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 2: something different.
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 1: I also think a lot of people confuse their healthcare plan,
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 1: keeping their healthcare plan, with keeping their doctor. And I
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 1: noticed that one thing that she did in this plan,
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 1: which I think she should have done and Bernie should
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: have done much earlier, or maybe they have, but it
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 1: hasn't really broken through, is.
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 1: And we've said this before, in a single payer system,
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 1: you absolutely can keep your doctor because there's only one
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 1: network in the country and all doctors are in that network.
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: So I think an argument that's fair for Medicare for
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 1: All proponents to make is under the current system, you
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 1: may not be able to keep your doctor because there's
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 1: different networks of doctor. And depending on the different insurance
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 1: plan you're on, the doctor might be signed up to
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 1: that insurance plan. And so would you rather keep your
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 1: private insurance plan or would you rather keep your doctor?
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 1: And under Medicare for all, you can keep your doctor.
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 1: I think it's a powerful argument that they have not
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 1: made enough yet. And it was good to see that
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 1: she started making that here, but yeah, like, I don't
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 1: know if it works either. I think it is. I
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 1: wonder how many people are going to say, okay, you
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 1: really can, you really can propose this program and put
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 1: all these taxes on all these wealthy people and corporations.
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 1: And it's not going to hit me at all. Maybe
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 1: they'll believe that.
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 2: I mean, The Affordable Care Act was paid for. Yeah.
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 2: Did not add to the deficit. There was literally nothing
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 2: that we could conceive of doing that could convince people
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 2: that it didn't add to the deficit.
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 1: That's true.
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 2: People's natural view is, it's a natural cynicism that large
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 2: government programs add to the deficit and we will eventually
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 2: pay for them in some way, shape, or form, right?
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 2: An immediate tax, a later tax, a cut in services
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 2: that I get provided. And so that's sort of what
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 2: you're pushing up against.
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 1: So obviously the math did not work for Joe Biden,
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 1: who called it mathematical gymnastics. What did you think of
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 1: Warren's response?
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 2: What does that mean, do you think?
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 1: I don't know. It's, again, like most things that come
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 1: out of that campaign, it sounds like a mid-90s, 2000s response.
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 2: I just don't like trying to envision, like, are the
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 2: numbers doing some results? I don't.
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 1: I don't. Yeah. He's trying to say it's a lot
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 1: of smoke.
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 2: I mean, I get the gist, so I guess it works.
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 1: What did you think of Warren's response that he's using
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 1: Republican talking points and might be running in the wrong primary?
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 2: I have made the point myself that some of the
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 2: critiques of Medicare for all from some of the more
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 2: centrist candidates like John Delaney were using Republican talking points.
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 2: And so I can't now attack Warren for saying the
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 2: same thing about Biden. I do think it is unfair
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 2: to say that Biden is running in the wrong primary.
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 1: I do too. I thought it was unfair.
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 2: If Biden was advocating for eliminating the ACA, you could
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 2: say that. Biden is running on a position more progressive
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 2: than Hillary Clinton's health care position in 2016. You cannot
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 2: say that person is running in the wrong primary.
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 1: And just politically, I think Medicare for all proponents, of
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 1: which I am one, get into dangerous territory when you
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 1: start saying that plans that fall just short are somehow
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 1: designed by insurance companies, Republican... and all that kind of stuff. Like,
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 1: I don't think it's fair. I don't think it's correct.
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 1: I just think it's not the best argument, right? Like,
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 1: I'm a proponent of Medicare for all. I'm still stuck
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 1: between whether the best way to do it is, you know,
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: a public option that eventually gets you there, like Pete
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 1: has proposed and, you know, other people have proposed as well,
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 1: or if we should just take the leap at once,
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 1: all at once, like Warren and Bernie proposed. I think
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 1: there are pluses to both and minuses to both. I
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 1: really do. I'm still sort of.
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 2: Both politically and substantively.
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 1: Both politically and substantively, exactly. And by the way, like
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 1: President Obama said many times, if we were starting from scratch,
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 1: I would absolutely be in favor, no questions asked, about
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 1: a single-payer, Medicare-like, Medicare for All program, for sure. But
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 1: the difficulty is in the transition, not just politically, but substantively.
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 1: What are you going to do with all the people
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 1: who work for the insurance industry? What's going to happen
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 1: with hospitals? How are you going to make sure that
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 1: people are okay with moving from their private plan to
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 1: a public plan. Like, how are you going to finance it?
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 1: I think these are difficult questions substantively, not just politically.
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 1: And when we say politically, we do not mean getting
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 1: Republicans on board.
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 2: Right. Or we don't mean we are speaking to some
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 2: theoretical group of white working class voters in Wisconsin. We
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 2: are talking about the election. Well, we're also talking about
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 2: the feasibility of getting it done.
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's right.
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 2: Like, how are you, like, There's one thing that's how
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 2: you're going to sell an election. The other one is
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 2: how are you going to get it done? And all
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 2: of those questions matter for the ability to get it done.
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 1: Yeah. And so I think there is a legitimate debate.
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 1: And I think that the Warren Biden debate on this
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 1: was completely fair and substantive and above board when she
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 1: puts out the plan. He says mathematical gymnastics. She says,
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 1: what are you talking about? The Obama economists and health
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 1: care people helped me calculate it. All that is fair.
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 1: Good talk. She gets into then you're running in the
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 1: wrong primary. And then he gets into, by the way,
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 1: you're elitist because people don't agree with your plans, which
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 1: I also found incredibly unfair. Like now they have both
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 1: gone into territory that I think is unproductive for the primary.
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 2: I mean, we should put this in some perspective that
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 2: these are, we think unfair attacks. I think we're still
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 2: in the skirmish phase. We haven't figured out what the
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 2: words around it is.
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 1: I don't think it's anything like.
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 2: But all of this, the math of Medicare for all,
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 2: whether Biden's running in the right or wrong primary, Biden
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 2: calling Elizabeth Warren an elitist, is like almost everything else
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 2: in this election. It is a proxy conversation about electability.
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 2: That is what we are doing. No one really knows
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 2: what electability is. They know it is a third rail
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 2: to be talking about it because it is so steeped
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 2: in racial and gender tropes. But they also know that
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 2: who beats Trump is the number one issue for voters.
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 2: So when Pete talks about Medicare for all, when Biden
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 2: talks about Medicare for all, they are not talking about
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 2: the policy impact of it. They're talking about the political
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 2: viability of it. They are trying to say that a
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 2: candidate who supports Medicare for all cannot win Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania,
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 2: therefore they cannot be president. So it would be a
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 2: mistake to nominate them. When Biden calls Warren an elitist,
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 2: he is saying she cannot appeal to those voters. It
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 2: is both, like that is kind of, I think it
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 2: is a dangerously narrow view of how you win an
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 2: election because we are doing the thing that we hate,
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 2: which is we are allowing this group of theoretical white
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 2: working class voters in some small set of Midwestern states
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 2: to decide the Democratic nominee when there are multiple paths
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 2: to getting there.
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 1: The irony has not been lost on me that Elizabeth
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 1: Warren accused Joe Biden of using Republican talking points and
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 1: running in the wrong primary, which I thought was unfair.
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 1: And then Biden hits back, by using Republican talking points
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 1: and seeming like he's running in the wrong primary by
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 1: calling her elitist. Then the accusation is correct because his
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 1: response to it was like that. And we were just
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 1: talking about this before the podcast started. It's basically what
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 1: Hillary Clinton ended up doing to Barack Obama in the primary.
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 1: After the guns and religion thing, she started saying that
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 1: Barack Obama was elitist and she was the hero of
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 1: working class people.
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 2: And what she was saying was, Barack Obama would not
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 2: be able to win the role white voters necessarily get
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 2: to 270 electoral votes.
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 1: And and that's what and that's what. Yeah, he did.
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 1: He did. So looking at the polling over the last
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 1: few weeks, Warren has either lost a few points or
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 1: at least plateaued, though she's still leading in Iowa. Are
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 1: all these attacks that come from being the front runner
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 1: having an effect here, not just from Biden, but from
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 1: Pete and, you know, I want.
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 2: To see more polls before we make a determination about
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 2: whether the race has changed. The only changes in the
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 2: race has sort of been Warren rising and Pete rising.
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 2: The rest of it's been pretty stable from the very beginning.
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 2: And so we need to see more data to see
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 2: if this Monmouth poll where she dropped five points was
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 2: an outlier or a precursor or something to come. But
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 2: there's definitely more scrutiny on Elizabeth Warren, right? She went
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 2: a long time in this race for reasons that blow
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 2: my mind but a long time in this race without
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 2: anyone attacking her. Yeah. While she was rising at the
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 2: expense of Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Kamala Harris,
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 2: Bernie Sanders, and Joe Biden were all attacking each other
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 2: and not attacking Elizabeth Warren or even attack, just drawing
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 2: contrast with her. So now she has the scrutiny of
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 2: her front runner and the, and that, is, shoot, they
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 2: have to be ready for that because they're going to
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 2: have to be able to respond to those attacks. They're
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 2: going to have to be able to make the quote
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 2: unquote electability case, right? However they choose to make it,
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 2: but you have like, while electability is quote unquote bullshit,
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 2: you do have to convince voters that you can win.
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 2: So how are they going to, now that once someone
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 2: gets to the top or the other top of the polls,
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 2: then voters start to try to start imagining them running
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 2: against Trump. And you have to be able to tell
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 2: the story about how you win that race. And so
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 2: This next period, I think, is going to be very
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 2: critical for her because my guess is if you had
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 2: asked her campaign, they would have preferred to be in
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 2: second place in that Des Moines Register poll a few
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 2: months ago and be first place in the one in
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 2: December or January, whenever the next one is. They peaked early.
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 2: Very possible to sustain it, but it's a long time
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 2: to have the glare of the top on you.
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 1: Last question on all this. The person we haven't really
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 1: talked about here is Bernie Sanders, who is... clearly gaining
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 1: in the polls and has for the last couple weeks. And,
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 1: you know, the Bernie folks have had a long-running complaint
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 1: that the media doesn't take him seriously enough. And as
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 1: I've watched him sort of climb in the polls and
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 1: show a lot of strength in a lot of these
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 1: both early state polls and national polls over the last
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 1: couple weeks, I looked at it and I was like,
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 1: you know what? They're right. There are, I mean, we
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 1: had this whole conversation earlier in the week about the
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 1: Nate Cohn, New York Times polls and the swing states.
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 1: And all the discussion around the polls was, you know,
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 1: some people vote for Biden, but not Warren. And it's Biden, Warren, Biden, Warren.
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 1: And like Bernie Sanders is in between them in all
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 1: those polls. And it showed that actually he could put
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 1: together a path to 270 from those polls and those
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 1: swing states and beat Donald Trump. And no one really
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 1: mentioned it.
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 2: I think you're 100% right. And 99% of the time
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 2: when campaigns complain that, their Canada is not getting enough coverage.
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 2: It's just sort of tilting at windmills. But I think
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 2: in this case, they are correct. And part of it
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 2: has been Bernie stability, right? Whereas Biden has gone down
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 2: in the early States, at least Warren has gone up,
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 2: particularly in the early States. Bernie has just been there.
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 2: And it's just, it has been this place and he's
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 2: demonstrated this very high floor and the very real belief
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 2: that from a lot of people that his campaign is
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 2: was in real trouble after he had his heart attack.
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 2: And that that was, you know, and he had had
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 2: that statement about perhaps not traveling as much, but he
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 2: has emerged from that situation, must have had a very
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 2: impressive debate performance. The endorsement of AOC and other members
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 2: of the squad, very important. He's shown strength in these polls.
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 2: So he is a force to be reckoned with. And
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 2: like when you start like trying to chart out people's
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 2: paths to the nomination, right? Where, so it's like, Bernie
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 2: is a very real threat to win Iowa and then
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 2: follow that up with a win in New Hampshire.
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 1: Or even come in second or third in Iowa and
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 1: then win New Hampshire.
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 2: And do very well in Nevada, too. He is a very...
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 2: It's a caucus. He has always done very well on caucuses.
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 2: He has expanded his coalition since 2016 that suggests he
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 2: could do better in that caucus.
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 1: And he doesn't do as well as Biden does with uh,
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 1: voters of color, but he does better than Warren or
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 1: Pete do with voters of color too. So he does
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 1: have a coalition that looks a little bit like Biden's
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 1: and a little bit like Warren and Pete's too. So he's,
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 1: he's at the very least like he, and he's got
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 1: a shitload of money and a huge organization. So he
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 1: ain't going anywhere even, you know, after the first couple
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 1: of states. So, okay. When we come back, we'll have
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 1: Dan's interview with run for something's Amanda Littman.
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 2: I'm now joined by Amanda Litman, the co-founder and executive
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 2: director of Run for Something, which helps recruit and support young,
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 2: diverse progressives running for down-ballot office. Amanda, welcome back to
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 2: Pod Save America.
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 3: I am so glad to be here.
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 2: How are you feeling this week? It's a pretty good
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 2: week to be a Democrat, huh?
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 3: Winning is so great. I cannot recommend it highly enough.
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 3: I feel like I'm standing taller. My skin is clearer.
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 3: This is such a good week to be a Democrat.
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 2: Talk to me a little bit about the work that
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 2: Run for Something did to help prepare for what was
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 2: a great election night on Tuesday.
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 3: So Run for Something had 155 endorsed candidates on the
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 3: ballot across the country. We had been working with these
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 3: folks in some cases since their races in 2017. These
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 3: are a couple of folks who had ran and lost
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 3: and were considering running again. Others we started working with
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 3: last year. We've been helping them with everything from campaign support,
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 3: making sure they knew how to get on the ballot,
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 3: actually filing. getting the voter file, communications, press, amplification, voter contact,
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 3: everything you can imagine. And Tuesday was amazing. We had
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 3: 50% of our candidates win. 60% of those winners are women.
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 3: They are incredible. They're across basically every state that had
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 3: an election earlier this week. And I am so, so,
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 3: so excited because they're the future of the Democratic Party.
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 3: So we're in good hands.
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 2: Are there any particular, I know I would never ask
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 2: you to pick among your many candidates, but are there
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 2: any particular ones that you would like to highlight for
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 2: our listeners?
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 3: Well, there's an amazing candidate in Virginia who flipped seats,
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 3: Joshua Cole, we've been working with since 2017. But my
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 3: personal favorite is a young woman in Maine. Her name
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 3: is Safiya Khalid. She's 23 years old. We've been working
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 3: with her for a better part of the last year.
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 3: In the final weeks before her election to Lewiston City Council,
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 3: she got tens of thousands of racist trolls harassing her
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 3: on social media. She's a Somali refugee. Her community is
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 3: predominantly white, but there's been a large influx of refugees
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 3: to Maine and to her city over the last couple
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 3: of years. She got harangued, ripped apart. They used a
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 3: photo from her when she was in high school to
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 3: make it seem like she was aggressive. She deleted her accounts,
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 3: which is always a good idea, and kept knocking doors.
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 3: And she ultimately knocked a thousand doors, talked to basically
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 3: every voter, and creamed her opponent, making history as the
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 3: first Somali-American elected to the Lewiston City Council. And if
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 3: that's not a metaphor for 2020 of knocking doors, talking
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 3: to voters, beats internet trolls, I don't know what is.
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 2: That's an amazing story.
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 3: She is incredible and she's not the only one. It's
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 3: what gives me so much hope.
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 2: I don't know what to say. It's one of the concerns.
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 2: I think one of the questions that was hanging over
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 2: the elections on Tuesday was the sort of idea that
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 2: in 2017, Democrats channeled their energy into special elections and
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 2: the Virginia, Virginia, New Jersey races, because that was the
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 2: only place where we could, you know, sort of focus
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 2: our post 2016 anger and activism. 2018, nothing more important
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 2: than taking the House. But now here we sit here
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 2: in 2019. We have, you know, taken the House and
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 2: therefore have, you know, at least a measure of a
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 2: check on Trump. We have this presidential election looming and
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 2: there's this fear that people either be complacent or distracted
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 2: about sort of the importance of down ballot races. And Tuesday,
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 2: I think, proved the opposite. What are you guys seeing
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 2: at Run for Something and how people are trying to
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 2: remain engaged at this level?
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 3: Well, you know, we had up to our first election
• 1:16:18
  Speaker 3: cycle in 2018 or our second election cycle because we
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 3: did stuff in 2017 too. We had 20,000 people sign
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 3: up to say they want to run. In the 11
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 3: months since then, we had another 20,000 people raise their
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 3: hands and say they want to run for office. Since
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 3: Election Day earlier this week, we've had an additional 1,500
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 3: people raise their hands. And next week, when we celebrate
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 3: National Run for Office Day on Tuesday, I expect thousands
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 3: and thousands of more. People are fired up. This was
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 3: never about Trump to begin with. It has been about
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 3: solving problems in their community. And we're going to see
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 3: what happens with the Democratic majority in Virginia next and
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 3: prove that investing in these races yields immediate outcomes for people.
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 3: It makes people's lives better. So I am really optimistic
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 3: because the flood of people who want to get involved
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 3: in these local races just keeps coming. Now the question is,
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 3: will we have the money and the infrastructure to support them?
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 3: I hope so, but it's easy to get distracted. So
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 3: as long as we keep our eye on the ball
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 3: and think big picture, I'm still really optimistic.
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 2: Have you seen any difference in sort of your you know,
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 2: the grassroots and financial support for your organization since the
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 2: 2018 election? Is it remaining strong?
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 3: It is as strong as ever. You know, we're up
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 3: to more than 20,000 donors, which is amazing for an
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 3: organization of our size. We've only spent about $ 10, 000 or $ 11, 000
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 3: per candidate. So every dollar that goes to us goes
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 3: a long way. These races, you know, they feel small. Like,
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 3: what does it matter if there's a city council, a
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 3: Democratic city council in Indiana or the first Black mayor
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 3: in a town in North Carolina, but one that literally
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 3: makes people's lives better, better clean water coming out of
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 3: their pipes, better roads, better security, better schools, but it
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 3: also makes sure people feel like they have a voice
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 3: in government. There's a Democrat there that represents them, that
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 3: they have a relationship with. It's not the party they're
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 3: seeing on TV. It's not the mess they're seeing in
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 3: the news. It's somebody that they can connect to and
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 3: engage with and feel an affinity for this brand. And
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 3: whatever gets them to the polls in 2020, whether it's
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 3: voting for a school board candidate or a presidential candidate,
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 3: it doesn't really matter. What matters is that they show
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 3: up and vote. So I think as you consider the
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 3: range of ways you can invest in both your time
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 3: and your money for the next cycle, focusing local, your
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 3: dollar goes much further.
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 2: One of the really important impacts of taking the House
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 2: and Senate in Virginia on Tuesday was redistricting, right? The
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 2: fact that Democrats will be able to direct that process
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 2: and do it in a fair and independent way as
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 2: opposed to the gerrymandering that's happening around the country. I
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 2: know that Run for Something has been very focused on this.
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 2: You've been working with other organizations. Can you talk about
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 2: the work you're doing there and how you explain the
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 2: connection between state down-ballot races and the importance of redistricting?
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 3: I think this is a five alarm fire that we
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 3: are not shouting about enough. It is a crisis of
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 3: structural power. If Democrats do not win key state legislators,
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 3: key state legislative chambers in 2020, it will not fucking
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 3: matter who's in the White House. And I say that
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 3: because it won't. If we do not win these state
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 3: legislative chambers, Republicans will control who draws congressional boundaries. They
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 3: will ensure that Republicans have majority power over the House
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 3: after 2022 and beyond. And that's it. That's the end
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 3: of functioning government in Washington. That's the end of democratic representation.
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 3: Republicans have understood this for years. In 2010, Karl Rove
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 3: wrote an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal, said we're
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 3: going to spend in 110 state legislative races this year.
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 3: We'll drop $ 35 million. We're going to win and we're
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 3: going to control Washington. And they did. And we left
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 3: our eye off the ball This time around, that's not
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 3: going to happen. We're actually working really closely with Arena
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 3: and Swing Left as part of the grassroots redistricting project.
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 3: Our role in that is ensuring that we're running full
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 3: slates of candidates in at least the top nine redistricting targets,
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 3: as identified by Eric Holder and the redistricting committee. So
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 3: for us, we're looking at Florida, Georgia, Minnesota, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas,
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 3: New Hampshire, and Wisconsin. We want to make sure that
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 3: in those places, We're running as many candidates as possible
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 3: because in an election like 2020 with record turnout, we
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 3: have no idea where our wins can come from. Yeah,
• 1:20:30
  Speaker 3: there's going to be some top targets that are going
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 3: to be really vulnerable up at first glance. But a
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 3: really good candidate who's running a grassroots campaign can make
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 3: a campaign competitive and can force Republicans to spend money
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 3: where they don't want to. So for us, we're looking
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 3: to fill as many of these races as possible with
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 3: really good, really driven, really authentic people who are willing
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 3: to put in the work. And we're working closely with
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 3: other organizations, including ARENA, Swing Left, DLCC, and the Redistricting
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 3: Committee to make sure that it takes a village to
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 3: win these chambers.
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 2: As you look across the progressive landscape, what gaps do
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 2: you see in our infrastructure when it comes to winning
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 2: these down-ballot races and how can we fill them?
• 1:21:08
  Speaker 3: That's such a good question. You know, there's a lot
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 3: of stuff that exists for state legislative races. There's almost
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 3: nothing that exists for city council and school board races.
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 3: We're one of the few groups that engages in these races.
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 3: which have a direct impact on people's quality of life.
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 3: And there's no one there really to help them. So
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 3: we try and work as close as we can, but
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 3: there's not a committee even or an organization that says,
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 3: if you're a school board candidate, how can we help
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 3: you as the Democratic Party? So for me, that's one
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 3: of the biggest places where we can do more work.
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 2: You know, we have a lot of people listening here
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 2: who are obviously very engaged in politics. What pitch would
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 2: you make to them to run for office?
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 3: You can do it. If Trump can be president, you
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 3: can do this. You have seen examples of people like
• 1:21:53
  Speaker 3: you running and winning for the last three years. You
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 3: have seen people who have made huge sacrifices and changed
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 3: their lives to ultimately change their community and change the world.
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 3: You can do this. And I promise you, if you
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 3: decide to run for office, you will not be alone.
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 3: There are a movement of people, especially young people, especially
• 1:22:12
  Speaker 3: young women, especially young people of color, who are stepping
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 3: up and changing the game and redefining what is electable
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 3: and who can be viable in these races. So if
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 3: you want to run, especially if you're a young person,
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 3: we as Run for Something will support you. We'll help
• 1:22:26
  Speaker 3: you figure out what office to run for, how to
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 3: get on the ballot, how to set up a campaign.
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 3: We'll help you find staff. We'll connect you to volunteers.
• 1:22:33
  Speaker 3: We will do anything we can to ensure that you
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 3: have a chance at success. And if you lose the
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 3: first time around, which pretty good chance you might, we
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 3: will help you the second time around too. Two-thirds of
• 1:22:43
  Speaker 3: our candidates who lost end up running again. That's incredible.
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 3: We're building a bench of talent, not just for today's leaders,
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 3: but for tomorrow's and beyond. I have no doubt that
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 3: somebody who decides to run over the last three years
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 3: for the first time will one day be president. That
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 3: seems like an obvious next step for me five or
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 3: 10 or 15 years down the road.
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 2: You wrote an op-ed about Katie Hill's resignation a few
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 2: days ago that started with the message to young people
• 1:23:11
  Speaker 2: thinking about running for office one day, do not let
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 2: what happened to Katie Hill scare you out of your ambitions.
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 2: Can you How has that, what happened with Congresswoman Hill,
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 2: impacted the conversations you've been having with potential candidates?
• 1:23:27
  Speaker 3: You know, I think it's something women especially have always
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 3: been cognizant of, that our sexuality can be weaponized, that
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 3: our bodies are embarrassments, that men can, especially men, can
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 3: make us feel shame. But I have seen, especially the
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 3: women who have stepped, say, I don't care. Simply by
• 1:23:44
  Speaker 3: running for office, you are confronting the status quo. This
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 3: is not a new phenomena, but it is one that
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 3: I think women are refusing to settle for. I really, really,
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 3: really hope that the act of cyber exploitation or whatever
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 3: you want to call it, revenge porn, gets criminalized and
• 1:24:01
  Speaker 3: stigmatized and is punished at the fullest extent that we
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 3: can possibly find a way because the people who should
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 3: be afraid after what happened to Katie Hill should be
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 3: the ones who are perpetuating the crime. Women should not
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 3: let this scare us. That fear, I think I said
• 1:24:16
  Speaker 3: this in the op-ed, that fear is what gives the
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 3: patriarchy oxygen to breathe. Do not let it take over.
• 1:24:21
  Speaker 2: It's very powerful.
• 1:24:23
  Speaker 3: Thank you. I mean, I think I feel really strongly
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 3: about this. And I think it's also really important to
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 3: note that talking about how hard this makes it for
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 3: women to run perpetuates a cycle of fear that it
• 1:24:32
  Speaker 3: makes it for women to think it's harder to run.
• 1:24:34
  Speaker 3: So I really hope that any young woman listening to
• 1:24:36
  Speaker 3: this who thinks, I've got photos out there, I can't
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 3: do this, please know that The more of us who run,
• 1:24:42
  Speaker 3: and especially the more of us who run and win,
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 3: the more normalized this becomes.
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 2: I would encourage everyone listening to read Amanda's op-ed on this.
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 2: It's a very powerful and persuasive message. You have a
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 2: big day coming up on Tuesday, National Run for Office Day.
• 1:24:58
  Speaker 2: What's going into it and what do you hope to
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 2: accomplish with it?
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 3: National Run for Office Day is everybody's favorite kickoff to
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 3: the holiday season. It is the week after Election Day.
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 3: This is the third year we're doing this. We're working
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 3: with more than 70 partners across the progressive movement. The
• 1:25:11
  Speaker 3: idea here is that the best way to get more
• 1:25:13
  Speaker 3: people to run for office is to ask them. So
• 1:25:16
  Speaker 3: if you are thinking about it, go to runforofficeday.com. We'll
• 1:25:20
  Speaker 3: also be tweeting and posting and sharing as much as
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 3: we can. Last year, we had about 10,000 people sign
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 3: up in 24 hours to say they want to run
• 1:25:27
  Speaker 3: for office. All of that information gets shared with the
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 3: relevant groups where it can help these candidates. It is
• 1:25:32
  Speaker 3: just a first step. It is raising your hand and saying,
• 1:25:35
  Speaker 3: I'm thinking about it. So we're really excited about it.
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 3: We're hopefully going to have some really fun people supporting it.
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 3: I am so, so pumped that this year, instead of
• 1:25:45
  Speaker 3: a holiday card, Run for Something sent National Run for
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 3: Office Day cards to all of our supporters. That's one
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 3: of my favorite things. So I think it'll be really fun.
• 1:25:52
  Speaker 2: Well, Amanda, thank you for joining us. And I just
• 1:25:56
  Speaker 2: want to encourage all of our listeners to support Run
• 1:25:59
  Speaker 2: for Something. Either run for office if you can. If
• 1:26:02
  Speaker 2: you can't run for office or you're not ready to
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 2: run for office yet, contribute to Run for Something. It
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 2: is a one of the absolute most important organizations in
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 2: the Democratic Party. And we are so thankful for everything
• 1:26:16
  Speaker 2: that you have been doing over the last few years
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 2: to get us out of the mess we're in.
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 3: Well, I am so grateful to you. I should say
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 3: that after I came on the pod a couple of
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 3: years ago, Crooked Media was the number one recommender of
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 3: potential candidates, which makes me really happy. So anyone who's
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 3: listening to this, People like you, literally like you, listening
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 3: to these podcasts are the people running for office. So
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 3: don't be afraid to step up.
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 1: Give.
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 3: RunForSomething.net is where to go.
• 1:26:39
  Speaker 2: Amanda, thank you so much. And we will talk to
• 1:26:41
  Speaker 2: you again as the election heats up. Thanks.
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 1: Thanks to Amanda Littman for joining us today. And we
• 1:26:50
  Speaker 1: will see you next week. Bye, everyone. Pod Save America
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 1: is a product of Crooked Media. The senior producer is
• 1:27:06
  Speaker 1: Michael Martinez. Our assistant producer is Jordan Waller. It's mixed
• 1:27:10
  Speaker 1: and edited by Andrew Chadwick. Kyle Seglin is our sound engineer.
• 1:27:13
  Speaker 1: Thanks to Carolyn Reston, Tanya Somanator, and Katie Long for
• 1:27:16
  Speaker 1: production support. And to our digital team, Elijah Cohn, Narmel Coney,
• 1:27:20
  Speaker 1: and Yael Freed, and Milo Kim, who film and upload
• 1:27:22
  Speaker 1: these episodes as a video every week.