Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Institutional Buying Spree?📈Crypto Market Update

Transcript

Institutional Buying Spree?📈Crypto Market Update · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: A whale buying spree is underway. Today.
• 0:01
  Speaker 2: We're going to be breaking down some good things that
• 0:04
  Speaker 2: could be going on in the market, but also some
• 0:06
  Speaker 2: other things to watch, so stick around for all that.
• 0:08
  Speaker 2: I want to thank our sponsor today and that is
• 0:09
  Speaker 2: okay X. In a time like right now, volatility is
• 0:13
  Speaker 2: one of the biggest things that can happen.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: One thing you can do is.
• 0:16
  Speaker 2: Earn up to four point one percent APY both on
• 0:20
  Speaker 2: USDG as well as RL USD, So start earning of
• 0:23
  Speaker 2: there today.
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: This is available for you by using our link. So
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: this is a big deal.
• 0:28
  Speaker 2: No subscriptions, you don't have to be part of a
• 0:30
  Speaker 2: membership or anything like that. And best of all, no
• 0:33
  Speaker 2: lock ups here, so you guys can earn you know,
• 0:35
  Speaker 2: and then immediately get your money back in doesn't matter,
• 0:37
  Speaker 2: so very easy to do it.
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: You guys can jump.
• 0:39
  Speaker 2: Over to okx dot com and check it out over there,
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: use our link for some special offers to get going.
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: All right, I want to go into a few points
• 0:49
  Speaker 2: today that I think.
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: We'll give a little bit of bullish.
• 0:52
  Speaker 2: News coming in and Ben Grosman kind of hit it
• 0:56
  Speaker 2: on the head here. I'm getting a tingling feeling crypto
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: is back. How do you guys feel, do you do
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: you have that tingling feeling that crypto is back or
• 1:03
  Speaker 2: do you see some things that could be signs for
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: the bottom, because I think that is what I'm watching.
• 1:08
  Speaker 2: If you look at the process of the bottom being in,
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: the question is how long does that bottom last? Here
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: was an analysis on the bottom building in progress, and
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: if you look at a few points. I want to
• 1:21
  Speaker 2: highlight a couple of things within this article. Since early
• 1:24
  Speaker 2: February twenty twenty six, price traded below the active investor
• 1:27
  Speaker 2: cost basis the recent buyer break even level approximately five months,
• 1:32
  Speaker 2: making this one of the more extended deep value episodes
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: that we've seen in pitcoin.
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: So if you.
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: Compare that to also where that mean value is and
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: the realized price, you'll start to see the blue line
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: is realized price. You'll start to see the last time
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: we saw this was in December of twenty two, where
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: it actually dipped below and then we saw the market respond.
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: This is kind of where we are right now. Doesn't
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: mean it can't go below this realize price level, but
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: the point is, could it be starting to set the
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: basis for a market bottom? And the fact that We've
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: got everything that going wrong right now. I feel like
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: in macro and bitcoin is still holding a sixty two
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: K is a pretty good sign. I think we might
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: have end or be entering at bottom. Here was Brownstone
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: and talking about this, Bitcoin sellers are exhausted and recently
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: price action may be proof of a bear market bottom.
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: And this is, you know, a bullish divergence. You know,
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: We've talked about.
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: This many times with Tim and I think some analysts
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: now are starting.
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: To watch this as well.
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: Is that we are seeing the kind of activity, especially
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: when you look at the whales. And I'll show you
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: something that's kind of interesting on that here in a second.
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: But I've got a clip here talking about are we
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: close to the bottom or not?
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: Take a look.
• 2:43
  Speaker 3: Bad news isn't moving the market lower? That maybe that's
• 2:46
  Speaker 3: an indication that things are steadily improving. I know that's
• 2:49
  Speaker 3: sort of a silver lining. But you would think that,
• 2:51
  Speaker 3: you know, the Iran war, ceasefire ending, or you know,
• 2:55
  Speaker 3: like you said, a hawkish fed, it's been a lot
• 2:58
  Speaker 3: of things that would traditionally be bad moved bad news
• 3:00
  Speaker 3: and potentially actually move the market down. So the fact
• 3:03
  Speaker 3: that we're holding strong kind of the title here maybe
• 3:05
  Speaker 3: as a signal it is to me.
• 3:07
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean micro strategy selling has not really three
• 3:10
  Speaker 4: and a half thousand bitcoins has not really had much
• 3:12
  Speaker 4: of an effect. Not massively optimistic, but you know, maybe
• 3:18
  Speaker 4: this kind of investor capitulation point right now MVRV. So
• 3:21
  Speaker 4: that's market value. I've realized that. So it tells you
• 3:25
  Speaker 4: sentiment is low. It tells you that a lot of
• 3:29
  Speaker 4: people are hurting right now, and to me, that's that's
• 3:33
  Speaker 4: indicative of a US being very close to the cycle low.
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: These are the kind of pain points that you do
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: feel in a true bear. Market capitulation is the question
• 3:45
  Speaker 2: I have do we see enough of that in the market,
• 3:48
  Speaker 2: And I think to a certain extent there probably is.
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: Matt Hogan had some interesting analysis on this that can
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: impairs this back to twenty nineteen. Listen what he had
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: to say that I'll give you some insights on that.
• 4:01
  Speaker 5: This feeling feels very familiar. This feels a lot to
• 4:04
  Speaker 5: me like early twenty nineteen era crypto winter, where you
• 4:10
  Speaker 5: sort of have this period where you go sideways and
• 4:13
  Speaker 5: then a little period down. People get angry, people rage, quit,
• 4:17
  Speaker 5: fear and greed spikes towards zero. But it is worth
• 4:21
  Speaker 5: noting that effectively, all of the negative news that I
• 4:25
  Speaker 5: can imagine is already well known in the market. Micro
• 4:29
  Speaker 5: strategy is well known in the market, the clarity act
• 4:31
  Speaker 5: is well known in the market. You know, the substitution
• 4:35
  Speaker 5: effect is well known in the market. So I do
• 4:37
  Speaker 5: think we're in the process of bottoming. Doesn't mean we
• 4:40
  Speaker 5: pinpoint here and go back higher. I think it's totally
• 4:42
  Speaker 5: possible we trade into the fifties. But what I was
• 4:45
  Speaker 5: telling some folks at a advisor conference I was at yesterday,
• 4:50
  Speaker 5: this is an interesting moment to sort of t wop
• 4:53
  Speaker 5: into bitcoin and your high conviction bets and know that
• 4:57
  Speaker 5: in a year from now you'll be happy. From now,
• 5:00
  Speaker 5: you might be wishing you had waited, but in a
• 5:03
  Speaker 5: year from now, I think you'd be pretty happy.
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: So what you saw there with Matt, let me kind
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: of run this back here to give you kind of
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: some insights here. So this is the range right here
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: that I'm kind of focusing in, which is that July range.
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: And if you look at July, we'll go right there.
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: It was pretty much flat right there.
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: In reality, it was right at thirteen percent all the
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: way into February of twenty twenty and then, of course
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: we know.
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: What happened after that. That was when we dip down.
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: Obviously for COVID, that's not going to happen again. So
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: my estimation you're going to continue to go flat. Here
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: You're looking at this bottom range, and the question is
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: is it shorter and then does it turn up and
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: we see a market recovery?
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: Does this go into twenty twenty seven? That's the real question.
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: I think a lot of analysts are asking right now,
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: let me know what you guys think. Do you think
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: we get one hundred thousand big coin? Because there's a
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: handful of people think we're going to see one hundred
• 5:54
  Speaker 2: thousand bitcoin in twenty twenty six. Let me know what
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: you guys think. Is that going to happen in twenty
• 5:58
  Speaker 2: seven or will happened in twenty six?
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: Other things.
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: I wanted to jump on right here because this is
• 6:04
  Speaker 2: another reason maybe whales are buying.
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: And whales have.
• 6:07
  Speaker 2: Accumulated over two hundred and seventy thousand bitcoin. That's the
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: largest thirty day whale accumulation since twenty thirteen.
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: So big numbers out there right now.
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: And if you look at ETFs this has been a
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: death spiral on ETFs. That's the run that we've been
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: running at since May, which have been negative altflows on bitcoin,
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: and now we have a little.
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: Bit of a positive move.
• 6:30
  Speaker 2: So is that little move right there maybe something to
• 6:35
  Speaker 2: consider a bottom signal? Again, these are somewhat positive signs
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: in a very bad situation that's brewing still on the
• 6:42
  Speaker 2: macro front. And to what everybody was talking about is
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: that you've got the FED, You've got what's going on
• 6:48
  Speaker 2: in Iran, you've got you know, peaking inflation, a whole
• 6:52
  Speaker 2: situation around jobs, and let's not forget about clarity and the.
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: Mismash that's going on in DC.
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: I think that in itself and being able to hold
• 7:01
  Speaker 2: the market as it has been over just the last
• 7:04
  Speaker 2: few weeks has been that's.
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: A relief, I feel like.
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: So it's a pretty significant issue that's playing out. Another
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: signal here to me that mainstream finance getting into the
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: market now tells me they're a lot more committed to this,
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: and especially someone like Vanguard, even have Varik Balshunas saying
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: it right here. Vanguard reached out to him about the
• 7:27
  Speaker 2: digital asset job and he said, hey, that's Okay, you
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: haven't been the knee or been orange piled yet, but
• 7:34
  Speaker 2: they want to utilize the tech. I think they're going
• 7:36
  Speaker 2: to I think they're going to have been the knee,
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: but I think they're going to do it more on
• 7:40
  Speaker 2: a digital asset front as a whole. And really that's
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: what the digital asset director or I guess their head
• 7:46
  Speaker 2: of digital assets is asking for is to really look
• 7:48
  Speaker 2: at infrastructure and use case. I think they're going to
• 7:51
  Speaker 2: start to figure out what this really means to the market,
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: and they're going to move on it with a lot
• 7:56
  Speaker 2: more activity, maybe more ETFs, maybe something even more special
• 8:01
  Speaker 2: around this as well to compete with the likes of
• 8:03
  Speaker 2: black Rocks, So be on the lookout for that. Bitcoin
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: also had a red May and June at average nineteen
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: percent of return in July. If this repeats, July could
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: tap the seventy to seventy one room. I don't know
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: if you saw seventy to seventy one for bitcoin, would
• 8:18
  Speaker 2: you exit the market right there and rebuy if we
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: see a fifty how would you play this or just
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: hold through continue the dollar cost average? How would you
• 8:28
  Speaker 2: guys play that market if we see that kind of performance?
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: Let's go over to Ethereum real quick, just to show
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: you the thirty day on ETHTFS, which has started to
• 8:37
  Speaker 2: turn around here in the last thirty days. Not a
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: bad look right now for Ethereum. There are a handful
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: of things too that you have to watch for. Institutions
• 8:46
  Speaker 2: are loading up again. ETFs bought seventy million worth of
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: yesterday large daily inflow twenty eight days. We just showed
• 8:53
  Speaker 2: the chart there five straight days of buying one hundred
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: and sixty two mili.
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: So this is good news in general.
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: So if you consider what Matt was talking about in
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: terms of twenty nineteen, and you do an eath bitcoin
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: chart on this and go back into July, you can
• 9:07
  Speaker 2: kind of see there was a little bit of downrun there.
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: But then of course Ethereum exploded in performance over bitcoin.
• 9:15
  Speaker 2: So look at the chart here as it starts to
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: move all the way into December of twenty twenty one.
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: That is a massive run here, guys on digital assets
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: for a long period of time before we started to
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: see really the pullback that began where bitcoin started to
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: take control back in twenty two and twenty three. So
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: these are the kind of things that we're watching very closely.
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: And I think as we see that and the explosion
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: of what's happening with Robinhood right now, Robinhood's daily chain
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: dex volume hits a record high of this fiber and
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: sixty million, this thing's going to explode, I think, and
• 9:46
  Speaker 2: we're going to continue to see more activity on this.
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: I think now granted you know we were talking about
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: this in studio just a few minutes ago. Is that
• 9:55
  Speaker 2: and this may be true, is that robins has probably
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: gonna have a lot of retail volume in daily active
• 10:00
  Speaker 2: addresses igniting.
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: But are we going to see people building on the chain.
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: Probably not.
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: There's probably going to be businesses and things like that
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: that are building, including institutions on finance that'll be building elsewhere.
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: But the fact that you see this much volume is
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: pretty is pretty insightful to where Ethereum is going to
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: be heading.
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: Here's another point of this.
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: Robinhood maybe the only only one of the first major
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: traditional finance platforms to build on ethereums L two ecosystem.
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: Here's the question if more banks, brokers, FinTechs, and asset
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: managers follow, the amount of value relying on ether alone
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: could grow from hundreds of billions to trillions of dollars,
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: so and it becomes the economic collateral securing a global
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: settlement layer four and.
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: In traditional finance.
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: So this is something I asked for Rebecca Redik yesterday,
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: was what happens if, because Robinhood is really doing they're
• 10:53
  Speaker 2: doing a number on trad File right now. What happens
• 10:56
  Speaker 2: if finally trad Fi starts to kind of wake up
• 10:59
  Speaker 2: and smell the roses and says, all right, let's do
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: something like this, and maybe they use a different strategy,
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: but it's all on ethereum, or maybe they choose something else.
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: So just saying this is going to put.
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: A lot of pressure on Wall Street in general. These
• 11:12
  Speaker 2: are all bullish if you really think about these are
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: all bullish. If we are nearing a bottom, it opens
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: up an opportunity for US crypto insiders that are watching
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: this show to really understand where that positioning can be.
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: The things you have to watch out for, though, and
• 11:26
  Speaker 2: you always have to look for the red herring, the
• 11:29
  Speaker 2: black swan, the issues that can occur. One of course,
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: is the Fed. They officially blamed AI for inflation. These
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: were some of the reasons they talked about core goods
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: inflation still attributing to tariffs and AI. They also went
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: into no rate changes possibly into twenty seven. But the
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: big one right here, some members believe AI will eventually
• 11:50
  Speaker 2: reduce inflation through productivity gains. And now we've talked about this,
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: I've heard Warsh say this before but explicitly warned this
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: effect would take a long time to happen.
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: So two ways you can read that.
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: We probably won't see productivity really flowing out of AI,
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: so we'll investors get tired of AI not performing in
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: real life and decide to rotate capital, possibly into crypto.
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: Maybe the timing would be there.
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: Or do we actually get AI productivity and that changes
• 12:18
  Speaker 2: investment thesis all around. So there's a lot of things
• 12:21
  Speaker 2: to be watching right now. One of the things you
• 12:23
  Speaker 2: have to look at, though, is semiconductors because this is
• 12:26
  Speaker 2: a core area for where AI is going to grow from.
• 12:30
  Speaker 2: And semiconductors make up fifteen percent of the S and
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: P five hundred right now, fifteen percent of the market
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: cap of the S and P five hund This is
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: the most in history, so pretty significant here.
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: And all this leads into AI.
• 12:43
  Speaker 2: It also leads into the possibility of capital rotation So
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: those are the things you have to consider right now.
• 12:49
  Speaker 2: Bloomberg came in and talked about the FED talking about
• 12:53
  Speaker 2: blaming AI on this.
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: Listen to what they had to say.
• 12:55
  Speaker 6: But then there was also this discussion around the CAPEX
• 12:58
  Speaker 6: build out related to artificial intelligence. On that the participants
• 13:03
  Speaker 6: said quote many participants noted that ongoing strong demand for
• 13:06
  Speaker 6: AI infrastructure would likely sustain upward pressure on prices for
• 13:10
  Speaker 6: technology products and electricity. Going on to add that, some
• 13:14
  Speaker 6: participants remarked that productivity gains associated with AI adoption would
• 13:19
  Speaker 6: eventually reduce production costs and increase aggregate supply, which should
• 13:23
  Speaker 6: put downward pressure on inflation, though they noted that effect
• 13:27
  Speaker 6: would likely take time to materialize.
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: And then you get into energy because one of the
• 13:33
  Speaker 2: things you have to consider is energy consumption. This of
• 13:36
  Speaker 2: course gets into electricity, all sorts of things that can
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: play into the infrastructure around the United States. So as
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: we continue to see the buildout of all these data
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: centers and the infrastructure that has to support those data centers,
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: guess what you start to see rising prices and I'll
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: get to it even further. Think about all the infrastructure
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: that builds those data centers that's constructions, that's everything from
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: electricians to plumbers. Those demands start to create more demand,
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: less availability, meaning higher prices. All of that again gets
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: right into the point of inflation being possibly led by AI.
• 14:13
  Speaker 2: CNBC also came out talking about inflation versus politics and
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: that there may be a little bit of a twist here.
• 14:19
  Speaker 7: So take a look and it shows not an inflation problem,
• 14:23
  Speaker 7: it shows a political problem.
• 14:25
  Speaker 6: Brian.
• 14:26
  Speaker 7: We had nobody on the committee in March that saw
• 14:30
  Speaker 7: a rate hike by the end of the year.
• 14:32
  Speaker 4: That's March.
• 14:33
  Speaker 7: We go to June and now nine people see a
• 14:37
  Speaker 7: hike by the end of the year, including one person
• 14:41
  Speaker 7: that moved from no hikes to three hikes. I think
• 14:44
  Speaker 7: this is one of the most disingenuous dot plots I've
• 14:48
  Speaker 7: ever seen.
• 14:48
  Speaker 8: I think some things did change, which is that when
• 14:51
  Speaker 8: you look at what they're saying, David, and I'm not
• 14:54
  Speaker 8: saying they're right about this, but it was the inflation
• 14:58
  Speaker 8: that they saw beyond oil prices when they talk about
• 15:01
  Speaker 8: it affecting other parts in services x housing had remained
• 15:06
  Speaker 8: elevated or declined very little. They have become more hawkish,
• 15:10
  Speaker 8: more concerned that they're not hitting their target more concerned
• 15:13
  Speaker 8: that there's another thing that they now have to look
• 15:16
  Speaker 8: through that ultimately could undermine the inflation expectations story. And
• 15:21
  Speaker 8: I think other people who have this other attitude out
• 15:24
  Speaker 8: there that hey, this is going to dissipate. Sure, roll
• 15:26
  Speaker 8: the dice and play that game if you want. But
• 15:29
  Speaker 8: let's remember one thing, David. They just went through a
• 15:32
  Speaker 8: period where they saw inflation as transitory and they got
• 15:36
  Speaker 8: burned in a very bad way, and I think that
• 15:39
  Speaker 8: colors their views right now.
• 15:41
  Speaker 2: All right, So as you can see, that is one
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: of the things you have to keep a very close
• 15:45
  Speaker 2: watch on, and that is how the FED reacts to
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: the market. And the market is showing signals to the
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: Fed that is starting to shift a lot of these
• 15:53
  Speaker 2: governors to where they're changing their idea of whether or
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: not we see a FED rate cut or a FED
• 15:59
  Speaker 2: rial hike this year. So that's playing into all of this.
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: The other thing, the market's kind of looking at this
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: in a different way. How did they determine the market
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: in general? How does it determine what the FED minutes
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: really mean to the market?
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: Watch this one?
• 16:15
  Speaker 9: And I think the market right now doesn't consider the
• 16:18
  Speaker 9: FED unimportant. It just considers what the market's doing more important,
• 16:22
  Speaker 9: and the market doesn't need the.
• 16:24
  Speaker 8: FED to guide it.
• 16:25
  Speaker 9: The dot plots really weren't anything that you'd want to
• 16:28
  Speaker 9: give your investment advisor.
• 16:30
  Speaker 8: Is a roadmap for your money. I'm just saying the
• 16:33
  Speaker 8: market has already priced in a higher funds rate. It's
• 16:37
  Speaker 8: at four twenty, it's up. The minutes maybe didn't have
• 16:41
  Speaker 8: a whole lot of new information, simply reflecting the verbiage
• 16:45
  Speaker 8: of what we knew was the case of a divided FED.
• 16:47
  Speaker 8: But I have a hard time seeing at these elevated
• 16:51
  Speaker 8: treasury yields how the market is looking through the overall
• 16:54
  Speaker 8: idea that there's some risk out there and a priced
• 16:58
  Speaker 8: in risk in the futures market. It's priced in in
• 17:00
  Speaker 8: the two, it is priced in the ten. Rick Santelli
• 17:03
  Speaker 8: taught me to watch and believe in what the markets
• 17:05
  Speaker 8: are saying. And these markets are saying the FED is
• 17:08
  Speaker 8: going to be higher.
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: So when you look at Japan, this is another example
• 17:13
  Speaker 2: of this. This is an XTBOJ official saying Japan may
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: rapidly rate raise rates two up to two percent this year.
• 17:20
  Speaker 2: So this would be a big deal because the current
• 17:23
  Speaker 2: policy rate is one percent.
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: Highest level since ninety five, so this would be significant overall.
• 17:29
  Speaker 2: And I think this is another factor that starts to
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: put a lot more pressure on the macro economics here
• 17:34
  Speaker 2: in the US playing into this. Again not necessarily true bearish,
• 17:38
  Speaker 2: but it's something that you have to just pay attention to.
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: Another thing you want to pay attention to right now
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: are these strategic reserves on oil. This is where we
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: are right now. We are at the point of nineteen
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: million barrels away from basically an estimated operating level, and
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: that means we've got to go out and buy. And this,
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: I think is what Iran is waiting on for a
• 17:59
  Speaker 2: possible negoti is they just going to wait till we
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: at that point and then come in and try to negotiate.
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: Where the US is at a point where the strategic.
• 18:06
  Speaker 2: Reserve has to go in and actually court correct so
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: straight or horror moves, tanker crossing not necessarily recovered yet,
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: so you're still continuing to see that from that massive drop.
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: That we saw earlier this year. Obviously within what's going
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: on in Iran. One other thing you want to look
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: at is this right here, you got strategy doing your
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: earnings call. Just be on the lookout for bad news.
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: I'm not saying that it will happen, but if it were,
• 18:33
  Speaker 2: this could be another catalyst that could cause a little
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: bit of shakiness and volatility in the market. One other
• 18:38
  Speaker 2: thing that you have to consider is where the Clarity
• 18:40
  Speaker 2: Act is. Most people will say, all right, well, it's
• 18:42
  Speaker 2: very very barish right now, and I think it still is.
• 18:45
  Speaker 2: It's on life support of being able to get through. However,
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: there are some things that are happening right here. This
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: is just released by Senator Warren saying that listen, Clarity
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: Act must prevent the President and the Vice president, members
• 19:01
  Speaker 2: of Congress, senior admissions, and their families from continuing to
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: profit on crypto. So she's not saying that the Clarity
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: Act should be knocked out. She's saying that as we
• 19:12
  Speaker 2: pass it, we just got to get an ethics parameter
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: around this, and that maybe is this bullish that I'm
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: hearing from a Senator Warren?
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: Could that be the case? I don't know.
• 19:22
  Speaker 2: If you look at the odds right now, not looking good,
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: holding it flat at forty five percent. So really, when
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: you kind of consider all the good and all the
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: bad here and you look at where we could be
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: and that is maybe nearing the bottom. Are you guys
• 19:36
  Speaker 2: feeling that this is possibly the bottom trough that we're
• 19:41
  Speaker 2: going to be rolling in?
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: Let me know in the comments what you guys think.
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: If you like this video, like and subscribe, drop a
• 19:53
  Speaker 2: comment down below, and also join our free private member group.
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: The link is in the description.