Latest / Safe As Podcast / E60: Psychology of risk and motivating less risky decisions
Transcript
- 0:06Hey everyone, welcome to the next quickest so to save as
- 0:10today, we're diving into the psychology of risk from the late
- 0:14Gerald wilde's book target risk 3.
- 0:18Wilde argues that to achieve a lasting reduction in accident
- 0:21rates, we must look beyond traditional solutions like
- 0:25engineering and enforcement and instead focus on human
- 0:29motivation. Wilde is probably best known for
- 0:32risk homeostasis, and while risk homeostasis doesn't have a
- 0:36strong empirical basis, but behavioural adaptation does.
- 0:40More broadly, his book has a lot of other really good insights
- 0:44and with me sidestepping the the risk homeostasis issue.
- 0:48It's argued that if we want people to adopt safer and
- 0:51healthier lives, we must motivate them to reduce their
- 0:54risk tolerance. Note this is far more broad than
- 0:57health and safety and extends across society.
- 1:01Wilde suggests that there are four factors that influence
- 1:04risky behaviour. Expected benefits of risky
- 1:07behaviour, like speeding. Expected costs of cautious
- 1:11behaviour, like time lost by driving at a lower speed.
- 1:15Expected benefits of cautious behaviour like fewer accidents
- 1:18or traffic tickets, and expected costs of risky behaviour like
- 1:22more tickets. Hence, we need to focus on the
- 1:26perceived utilities, the benefits and costs associated
- 1:30with both safe and risky behaviours, with four key
- 1:33motivational tactics being discussed in the book Tactic A
- 1:37Increase the perceived benefit of cautious behaviour.
- 1:40This tactic involves rewarding individuals for desirable
- 1:43outcomes like maintaining good health habits.
- 1:48This approach has been found to be significantly more effective
- 1:50in real life settings than punitive measures.
- 1:53The goal is to reward the desired ultimate outcome rather
- 1:57than rewarding specific safe acts which can be offset by
- 2:00riskier behaviours elsewhere. An example is offering
- 2:03incentives for accident free driving, such as discounts in
- 2:07insurance premiums, like in the case of California who offered a
- 2:11free one year licence extension for accident free driving, which
- 2:15results in a notable 22% reduction in the accident rate
- 2:19among participating drivers. Tactic B Decrease the perceived
- 2:24cost of cautious behaviour. This tactic seeks to make safe
- 2:28behaviours easier, more comfortable or less expensive.
- 2:31By reducing the expected costs of caution, which might include
- 2:35time, inconvenience or social stigma, people are more likely
- 2:39to integrate safe behaviours into their routines.
- 2:43Examples include introducing flexi time so employees are less
- 2:47compelled to rush to work, or offering subsidies for public
- 2:51transport. Tactic C Increase the perceived
- 2:54cost of risky behaviour. This involves increasing the
- 2:58financial, social or physical price of engaging in risky
- 3:01actions. While punitive measures like
- 3:04enforcement fall into this category, it's noted that
- 3:07punishment tends to be marginal or transient in effect, and
- 3:11actually can provoke reactants where individuals willfully
- 3:14disobey commands seen as limiting their personal
- 3:17freedoms. Examples could include increased
- 3:20penalties for traffic violations or increased taxes on tobacco,
- 3:24and tactic D decreased the perceived benefit of risky
- 3:28behaviour. This tactic targets the gains
- 3:31people expect to achieve from risky behaviour, such as saving
- 3:34time or increasing production. A classic example is changing
- 3:38compensation structures. Instead of paying workers such
- 3:41as, you know, taxi drivers per kilometre driven, they're paid
- 3:44per unit of time. This removes the incentive to
- 3:47speed or Dr riskily to maximise profits in the shortest time
- 3:51possible. Similarly, in the West Ray coal
- 3:55mine disaster, a high production bonus scheme motivated the
- 3:59miners to undo safety precautions for immediate
- 4:02financial gain. So in all the motivational
- 4:07approach like those mentioned here, I suggested as the art of
- 4:11effective safety management because they're specifically
- 4:15designed to incentivize the behaviours we want and increase
- 4:19the cost of less desirable behaviours.
- 4:22When you broaden this from just motivation of people to
- 4:25organisational design strategies, you can see the
- 4:28potential system leverage points for influencing behaviour.
- 4:33That's it on Safe has.