Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 151 - 10/29/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 151 - 10/29/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:19
Hello, and welcome to episode 151 of the All Systems Go sports
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Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
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I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
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Happy Tuesday, the final week of October rolls on.
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Are you ready for the trick or treaters?
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Did you get your your full size candy bars or your snack packs?
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Hope everyone's ready to go for one of my favorite holidays of
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the year. When you're younger, it's all
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about trick or treating. When you're older, I tell you
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what, I got my first house ever in my life three years ago with
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the wife and I love the transition now of handing out
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candy. So I'm very much looking forward
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to it. And I spent probably too much
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money on full size candy bars because I want to be the cool
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guy new to the neighborhood who gives out the the big kit Kats,
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the big peanut butter cups. So I'm very excited for for
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Halloween. But Halloween obviously is
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coming up here. But we have some work to do in
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the final week of October trying to eke out a winning day here
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today. Guys, I have a 5 pack of sweats
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for you, including three bets in college football.
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We have a triple header in college football tonight and I
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got a couple plays for actually of three overall.
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Two of them are some sides and I have one total as well as some
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good sharp blind moves and good sharp mush indicators from our
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friends at Juice Real. Make sure you go download that
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Juice Real app by clicking that custom link located in the bio
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description of the pod. Then after a big college
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football night, I got one play in the NBA for you.
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I'm going to take advantage or hopefully we will take advantage
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of an injury, betting against the team and going with the
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sharp line move on a short money line price.
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And then I got to play for you guys in the NHL, one of the best
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teams in hockey. We had a pretty respectable
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chalk price here. So 5 pack overall.
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You guys know the drill that we if we have 5 plays, we're trying
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to get three or more. You got a winning night.
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If we have three, we're trying to get two or more.
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And it's always important when you're approaching the sports
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betting market to have realistic expectations.
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I see a lot on Twitter nowadays. Let's sweep the board, you know,
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let's crush the books. Let's go five and oh, I think
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you're just setting yourself up for disappointment because
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betting is difficult. It's hard to beat these razor
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sharp lines. You guys know the drill.
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Bad beats, of course, you know, ref screwing you injuries.
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We got to beat the juice, of course.
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So realistic expectations. Let's try to grind out a profit
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with A5 pack tonight, find a way to eke out three or more.
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Now looking back to our last night guys 2 and 3 -, 1.4 units.
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We started the night great because Darius Slayton, it only
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took one drive for Darius Slayton to go over 27 and half
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receiving yards. He finished I think close to
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like 100 yards, but there was 1 deep pass from Daniel Jones.
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It's like a 40 yard bomb boom. We hit that Slayton over.
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So shout out to our friends at at Rhythm again.
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Go download that Rhythm app using that custom link in the
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bio description of the pod. But Rhythm was pricked in closer
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to 35. So we got our Slayton hit.
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We also had a good hit in the NHL with the Carolina Hurricanes
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coming through for the team in terms of a Rd. favorite bunch of
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system matches there. The Canes came through 5:00 to
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2:00, but that was it unfortunately.
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The Giants, of course, I banged my head against the wall with
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Daniel Jones in the points and wouldn't you know it, he fumbles
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and he also throws an interception in the last like 5
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minutes of the game. And there was an opportunity
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there driving down the field for a backdoor cover and wouldn't
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you know it, he turns it over. So the Giants end up losing by
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8. We had them +6.
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Those are kind of always the most frustrating ones in a way.
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I'd almost want to be blown out and I can go focus on a
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different game versus, you know, getting my hopes up.
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Think we might cover and then and then coming up short there.
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So Giants couldn't come through. I tip my cap to the public
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calling my daddy. I'm watching the if you haven't
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guys known about this, but the Red Sox, the comeback
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documentary on on Netflix. I watched the 1st 2 episodes
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last night. It's giving me goosebumps back
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when I was 17 years old watching the Red Sox break the curse with
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my dad. But there's a time when Pedro
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said I tip my cap, call the Yankees.
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My daddy, well, public, got us last night.
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They played Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh ends up covering.
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Now the frustrating part to me last night was both of our NBA
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totals to the over went under. So those were kind of
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frustrating. I knew we were in trouble
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because basically first quarter they scored like 40 points and
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I'm like, OK, we're we're in a big hole here.
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But the Knicks over, the Blazers over both came up short.
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Blazers over was kind of frustrating because beat the
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closing line. There is over 230 1/2 close 231.
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But either way, guys 2 and 3, three and two, five and OO and
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five. You guys know the drill.
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Nothing changes in terms of the approach, flat batting, trying
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to find sharp contrarian plays, trying to beat the number.
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That is always our goal. So let's flip the page literally
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and figuratively to a big Tuesday.
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And I want to start off with college football because I kind
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of sneaky love the college football slate for tonight.
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A triple header here. I think we have opportunities,
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hopefully make some money tonight.
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So let's start off with New Mexico State and FIU.
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Now this one's been interesting because we've seen pretty much
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one sided movement in favor of New Mexico State.
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So I'm on the points here with New Mexico State.
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I got plus 8 1/2 earlier today when I wrote for the sharp
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report for visen.com. Now it's down to 7 1/2.
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So good sign the sign continues to go to New Mexico.
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Not great if you didn't play it yet, but still is the bet for me
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yet. Now New Mexico State plus 7 1/2.
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Let's set the stage here. 7:00 tonight.
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Mexico State comes in two and five.
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Just snapped A5 game losing skid with a 33 to 30 win in overtime
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against La Tech. When they won, that came out
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right as a 12 1/2 point home dog.
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You know, FIU 2:00 and 6:00 drop three straight just came up
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short against Sam Houston 6:50. But remember we covered with FIU
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plus 4 1/2 that last game. What do we see across the market
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here? Well, pretty consistent one way
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movement, which I'm loving right now in favor of New Mexico
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State. This game open with FIU listed
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as a 10 point home favorite and we've seen FIU get down now to 8
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1/2 now down to 7 1/2. So not only do you see this
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consistent movement toward New Mexico State with no buyback,
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but also it's been consistent on game day when limits get raised
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and bigger bets come in and it's been all New Mexico State.
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Now the other thing like about this line move toward New Mexico
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State is that it's like a huge public play.
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You know, it's not 7080% of bets on New Mexico State.
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It's actually right down the middle 5050.
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And what do we, what do we always talk about?
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Talk about here, guys, when it comes to 5050 line moves,
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they're very meaningful because theoretically, if the tickets
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are even, you would expect in a vacuum, no reason for the odds
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makers to adjust the number. Yet when you see 5050 bet splits
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and the line doesn't move, OK, that's probably nothing there.
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But 5050 in line does move, especially a big move.
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Nearly, you know, three points, 2 1/2 points at this point tells
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me we got the bigger, sharper wagers on New Mexico State.
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Great bet split with New Mexico State.
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They're only getting half the tickets but 77% of the money at
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DraftKings. So further evidence of those
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bigger, sharper wagers taking the points with the Aggies here.
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Also, like the New Mexico State has pretty good correlative
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betting value. This is pretty low total game,
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43 1/2. Like that's even low for NFL.
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For college, that's extremely low.
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But 43 1/2 total, we're getting a little bit more than a
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touchdown. Again, with points are at a
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premium here tonight, it's going to be harder for FIU to cover
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that number. That's a good sign here for New
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Mexico State in terms of a bigger dog low total.
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We also have New Mexico State hopefully ready to go rested
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game plan because they are coming off a buy.
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It's a rest first tired in favor of New Mexico State.
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They last played on October 15th.
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FIU last played on October 22nd. So rest first tired sharp line
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move 5050 bet split bigger money conference dog lot of indicators
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here in New Mexico State. So I'm on New Mexico State guys
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again. I got plus 8 1/2 earlier today.
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Now, if you're playing it, I will take the seven and a half.
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And then also, we have seen a lot of money hit this under.
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It was total of 45. It's down to 43 1/2.
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Only 25% bets, but nearly 50% money is on this under.
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And it will be a little bit of a windy under, about 10 to 15 mile
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per hour winds. So if you like the under, I'm
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not going to argue with you. I lean to the under as well, but
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I'm going to take the points here.
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Seems like a lot of points and maybe too many for FIU.
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So give me New Mexico State, fingers crossed.
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I got an 8 1/2. Now at this point it's Mexico
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State plus 7 1/2. Keep on cruising. 730 PM 7:30 PM
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game. That's sandwich game tonight.
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Louisiana and Texas State now going in this one we have
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Louisiana six and one. They've won four straight games
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and just held off. Coastal Carolina 34 to 24
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covered as a 6 1/2 point Rd. favorite.
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Meanwhile, Texas State 4:00 and 3:00, they just had their two
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game win streak come to an end. They fell to Old Dominion 24 to
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14, lost as a 10 1/2 point Rd. favorite.
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So what do we see across the market here?
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Well, Texas State at a lot of shops open as low as a
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three-point home favorite. And there's been a big move here
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in favor of Texas State -3 up to -4 1/2.
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However, now that we're at 4 1/2, we're starting to see a
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little buyback the other way toward Louisiana.
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Like maybe the early Sharp said, hey, Texas State -3 was a good
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value play. But now that you're at 4 1/2
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with a hook, starting to see it come back down a little bit.
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A lot of shops are still offering the four and a half.
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So my play here, guys, is I'm taking Louisiana 4 1/2.
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That's available right now at Caesar's.
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But a lot of books are down to four, and FanDuel is actually at
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3 1/2. So I kind of like the fact that
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you have one book at a much even lower number here.
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At this point, I wouldn't really call Louisiana a sharp bet per
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SE. To me, it's more of an inflated
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line value play. But here's some other reasons to
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like the points here with Louisiana.
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On the one hand, Louisiana only getting 53% of bets, but 64% of
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dollars. So another kind of 5050, but
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more money on Louisiana. And again, a lot of these four
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and a halfs are coming back down to four.
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And then also short Rd. dog system match when you are a
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short Rd. dog, four points or less, I know you're kind of
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right on the edge there because some books are 4 1/2, but most
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of them are at 4. But those short Rd. dogs, 4 or
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less, they've covered around 54% of the time over the last
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decade. And why is that important to be
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a short Rd. dog? Because you got to remember, you
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know, typically you're going at three points for home field.
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So if you're a road dog four or less, that basically means if
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you subtract the home field advantage, it's around a pick em
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game on a neutral site. So that's why I like taking the
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points with these short Rd. Rd. dogs.
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Louisiana also is a conference dog.
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So the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect, levelling the
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playing field, benefiting the team, getting points.
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We have seen the Sunbelt Rd. dogs bark pretty loud, 55%
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against the spread since 2020. And then lastly, another angle
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here, which I really like with Louisiana is a dog who can score
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system match. Louisiana is averaging 34 points
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per game this year. So can you score enough to keep
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pace or backdoor cover? And again, hopefully you can
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find the hook on the 4 1/2, as I mentioned.
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What was it? Caesar's is is offering that.
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I think there's one other book on my live odds that has a four
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and a half. But that's important because if
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you think, hey, a touchdown for Texas State, a field goal for
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Louisiana, 7:00 to 3:00. Again, the four and a half there
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is going to cover for you. If you kind of play that that
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that score game, that integer game.
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So that all up guys, unlike New Mexico State, consistent
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movement. This is more to me of a got line
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got high enough to create value to go the other way with
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Louisiana. So I'm going to go with the
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Ragin Cajuns. Give me the hook.
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Go make sure you can find it. Louisiana plus 4 1/2 last game
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of the night, 8:00. LA Tech and Sam Houston State
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now going in this one we have Louisiana Tech 3:00 and 4:00.
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They have, however, it won two of their last three games, just
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outlasted UTEP 14 to 10. Did not cover as a 6 1/2 point
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on favorite member. UTEP cover for us in that one
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last week. Meanwhile, Sam Houston six and
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two, as you mentioned, beat FIU 10 seven, but didn't cover as a
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four and a half point row home favorite.
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What have we seen across the market here?
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Well, this line open Sam Houston around -9 1/2.
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It's now been bet up to -10 1/2. Some shops are back down to 10.
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I'm seeing some shops still at 10 1/2.
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So it's pretty much been one way movement in favor of Sam Houston
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State. Now currently Sam Houston State
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is getting a majority of bets. They're getting around 68% of
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bets. So it's kind of standard to me.
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Have you betting Sam Houston line went to Sam Houston?
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Maybe that's both public and a little bit of sharp money.
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But really the sharp money to me was Sam Houston -9 1/2 at the
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opener because that way a key number of 10, you win by 10, you
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cover that that number. So part of me is like, OK, LA
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Tech, you know, it's a bit interesting.
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They're only getting, you know, around 35% of bets, 32%
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somewhere around there, about 1/3 of bets and a heavily bet
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game. They are conference dog.
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Obviously 10 1/2 with the hook lose by 10.
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But I said to myself, you know what, this under looks really,
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really sharp. La Tech in Sam Houston State.
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And the biggest reason for kind of me liking this under would be
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the fact that we are looking at a line freeze here because this
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total opened at 45 1/2 and the public is saying this is total
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is way too low. Go over.
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So currently you are getting 65% of bets going over, but the line
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has not moved at all. It's remained right there at 45
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1/2. So I ask you guys this, if
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everyone's playing the over or 2/3 of betters are playing the
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over, why isn't that 45 1/2 up to 4647?
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Why haven't we seen this line rise if you're getting such
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heavy support to the over? Tells me books have taken a
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position on the under even though you're getting heavy over
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betting. They do not want to move that
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line up to give out a better number for contrarian under
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betters. Now the under is only getting
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35% bets but 59% of the money at DraftKings.
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That's a really good low bets, higher dollars bet split.
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And the other angle for me is both these teams are pretty
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decent defensively. LA Tech is only giving up 21
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points a game. Sam Houston's only giving up 22
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points a game. So tells me, hey, maybe we get a
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lower scoring game. And again, what did we see last
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week? 10 to 7 game Sam Houston FIU 14
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to 10 game UTEP, LA Tech. So hopefully kind of this, you
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know, light lower scoring, good defense, which we've seen last
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couple weeks between these teams.
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Hopefully that continues here for tonight.
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The other little, you know, chip on the shoulder or kind of
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cherry on top, as I should say, as I mix my metaphors, would be
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a windy under system match because the forecast tonight at
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Sam Houston State is going to be about high 70s.
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So the temperature is pretty nice, but it's going to be windy
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10 to 15 mile per hour winds. And you guys know the drill.
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When it's windy, you really got to get 10 mph or more.
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If you're, you know, 2 miles an hour, 5 miles an hour, that
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doesn't mean a ton, but 10 or more, that kind of affects the
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passing game, the kicking game. You might run the ball a little
14:51
more, chew up the clock. As mentioned previously, again,
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55% historically around last decade to the under when the
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wind blows 10 mph or more other angle here, sharp mush.
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Friends at Juice Reel, they have a sharp mush on the under, 10%
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edge on the under. That means the sharper betters
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are going under. And then also with rhythm,
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they're predicting a total around 44.
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So if we're getting 45 1/2 of the hook, you know, half point
15:18
and a half there in terms of an edge.
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So I'm going to go under here. I'm going to go La Tech in Sam
15:22
Houston State under 45 1/2. Now I just wanted to mention
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Louisiana, who we just talked about taking Louisiana plus 4
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1/2. There's a 16% sharp mush edge on
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Louisiana and Rhythm. I have two models, I forgot to
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mention this, but Rhythm has Louisiana plus 3.4 and I have
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another model where they should actually be around a pick em
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game. So if we're getting 4 1/2 some
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value there, hopefully. So can we find a way to get two
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out of these three bets? New Mexico State plus 7 1/2,
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Louisiana plus 4 1/2 and latex Sam Houston under 45 1/2.
15:58
Next bit for you, let's go to the ice.
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Let's talk some NHL tonight because there's a big match up
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7:30 PM Eastern, Eastern Time between a couple good teams
16:07
here, the New York Rangers and the Washington Capitals.
16:10
Now going to this one, we have the New York Rangers as one of
16:13
the best teams in hockey. There's six, one and one.
16:16
Capitals have been a bit of a surprise as well.
16:19
Caps are coming in this one, five and two.
16:21
Both teams, again, better teams here in the Eastern Conference,
16:25
but I noticed a good angle and opportunity to sweat the Rangers
16:28
tonight, So I'm going Rangers, guys.
16:29
I got the Rangers at -150 that's bet MGM.
16:33
Some books are higher like -155 -, 160 right off the bat, we
16:37
have the line going to New York, NY open this game around -145 I
16:42
saw a couple openers even a little bit lower like -140 now
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it's up to -150 -, 155 S. The first thing I notice is
16:49
again, this line is moving to the Rangers.
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Then we look at a big advantage hopefully in net confirmed here.
16:57
And if you ever want to look at starting goalies daily face off,
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if you want to bookmark that page, they're really good at
17:02
telling you line combos as well as all the goaltenders each day.
17:06
But Igor Shasturkin with the Rangers, he's expected to get
17:11
the start and goal. He's four one and one 2.16 goals
17:14
against 926 eight percentage. He's expected to be opposed by
17:18
Logan Thompson, who's got a good one loss record, 3 and O, but a
17:22
3.28 goals against, 884 save percentage.
17:26
So right off the bat, hopefully a big edge goaltending wise with
17:29
Chesterkin, you know, one of the top stud goalies in the league
17:33
versus Thompson again, who flashed a little bit with the
17:36
Vegas Golden Knights, has a good win loss record, but his goals
17:40
against and save percentage not very good this year.
17:42
And then the other thing I like is that Chesterkin is rested.
17:45
He sat the last game Jonathan Quick played and Jonathan
17:48
Quick's actually been really good for them too, but he hasn't
17:51
played since the 24th. So that's a 5 day rest for
17:55
Chestork and a good goalie who's been great this year.
17:57
Hopefully with that extra rest we'll play even better.
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Then we layer in a bunch of system matches on the Rangers.
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I got a lot of system lighting up on New York.
18:06
So if you are a road favorite off a win since 2021, those
18:10
teams are 64 percent, 3% ROI if you are a rested Rd. favorite.
18:15
So you've had at least two days between your last game and this
18:18
game. Those teams this year are 31 and
18:21
1765% with a 7% ROI if you're arrested.
18:25
Rd. Division favorite, 67 percent,
18:28
9% ROI since 2021 and a road favorite who made the playoffs
18:32
the previous year. This season those teams are 26
18:35
and 1563% with a 5% ROI. So a lot of indicators here on
18:40
the Rangers. Rangers also have the better
18:42
offense. They're averaging 4.3 goals a
18:45
game versus 3.7 for Washington. They have the better defense.
18:49
They're giving up two goals a game versus 3 for the Caps.
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They have the better special teams.
18:54
Power play percentage is 25% versus 8% for Washington, and a
18:59
better penalty kill, 88% versus 83%.
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And oh, by the way, Rangers 4 and O on the road this year.
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So we have a rested team with the Rangers with a ton of system
19:09
matches, at least on paper, knock on wood.
19:11
Hopefully in reality, better goaltending.
19:14
I'm going to take a shot here on the Rangers.
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So shop around, guys. If you want to tell, tell me and
19:19
take the Rangers. Sweat the game with yours truly.
19:22
I'm going Rangers at -150 last bit of the night.
19:27
This is a late game here in the NBA.
19:29
There's only four games tonight. Let's check out a matchup 10:00
19:32
Eastern Time on TNT. We got the Pelicans and the
19:35
Warriors and again, TNT. Everyone should be able to find
19:39
this one here tonight, but it is as of now your second most
19:43
heavily backed game. Mavericks T Wolves is the big
19:45
one tonight, but because of the late one, this will end up being
19:49
probably the most heavily backed game of the night.
19:51
But there is a big injury to know about in this one.
19:54
No Steph Curry. Steph Curry got injured
19:57
recently. He's going to be out a little
19:58
bit, but no Curry for Golden State Warriors and I think this
20:02
provides an opportunity to back the Pelicans at a very short
20:06
price here. So going into this one, Pelicans
20:09
are two and one. Golden State's also two and one.
20:12
Both teams are coming off a loss.
20:13
Both teams haven't played since the 27th.
20:16
But really this is a data play because we've seen First off
20:19
movement and toward toward the Pelicans.
20:22
Lot of books open Pelicans bought a one point Rd. favorite.
20:26
They're now up to -1 1/2. They actually got as high as 3
20:29
or 3 1/2 before you had some buy back on the Warriors bring it
20:32
back down to around 1 1/2. But either way, open a current,
20:36
really all liability and movement has been toward the
20:38
Pelicans and the Pelicans have some really good bet splits here
20:42
on the spread. The Pels are getting 69% of
20:45
bets, but 94% of the money on the money line, which that's my
20:50
play here guys. I'm going to go money line.
20:51
I got the Pelicans at -120 on the money line because again,
20:56
tight spread. I would hate to see the Pelicans
20:58
win by 1 and I lose my bet. So I'll pay a little more juice
21:00
here. But on the money line, they're
21:02
getting 49% of bets, but 76% of dollars.
21:06
So whether you want to go spread or money line, again, very, very
21:09
short, low bets, higher dollars are really good, low bets,
21:12
higher dollars bet split. Now here's where we layer in a
21:15
couple of the things. Rd. favorites in the NBA this
21:18
year. I'm talking straight up.
21:20
Rd. favorites straight up on the money line are 16 and 673%.
21:26
Now if you look at both off a loss, take the road favorite,
21:30
which is the spot the Pelicans are in tonight.
21:33
Last two seasons they're 78 and 3072%.
21:37
Also layer in the fact that we have 3 really good Rd. referees,
21:41
Ray Acosta, Mark Lindsay and Jenna Schroeder.
21:44
They're all between around 51 and 55% against the spread to
21:47
the road team. And lastly, our friends at Juice
21:50
Reel have a good sharp mush edge on the Pelicans. 7% sharp mush
21:55
edge tells us the sharper wagers or sharper betters in the app
21:58
are leaning Pelicans here. So it tells me what?
22:01
Tell me. Tell you what guys, no Steph
22:04
Curry, little movement here toward the Pels short price.
22:07
I'm going to bank on the Pels hopefully to get a win here with
22:10
some good system matches. And I tell you what I also have
22:13
bet in my life, several Pelicans games were out of nowhere.
22:17
Zion Williamson is scratched and won't play.
22:20
Dear God, can he play tonight? We need you tonight, Zion.
22:22
But I'm going to go Pelicans here guys shop around.
22:24
There's a money line bet for me. I got the Pels at -120 so 5 pack
22:30
tonight, Pelicans on the money line, Rangers on the money line,
22:33
New Mexico State plus 7 1/2, Louisiana plus 4 1/2 and Latex
22:37
Sam Houston under 45 1/2. So that about does it for
22:41
episode 151 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast
22:45
powered by Rhythm. This is the part of the pod
22:47
where we wrap things up and I start by asking a favor of you.
22:50
First off, thank you as always for tuning in and listening to
22:53
the pod. Means a lot to me that you take
22:55
the time out of your day to talk some sharp line moves.
22:58
But secondly, could you do me a favor?
23:01
If you enjoy this pod, if you're listening to my voice and you
23:03
haven't done it yet, could you please give this podcast a five
23:06
star review? If you're listening on Spotify
23:08
or iTunes, click that rate and review.
23:10
If you want to leave a nice comment, that'll be awesome.
23:13
More importantly, the five stars go a long way to helping us grow
23:15
the podcast. If you want to click the follow
23:18
button, that's great as well. That way, as soon as the pod
23:20
drops each day, you'll get alerted to it.
23:22
And then also if you want to again leave a good comment, be
23:25
great as well. And if you want to maybe
23:27
recommend it to a friend, word of mouth, even better.
23:30
But please five star review if you enjoy the pod, I would very
23:33
much appreciate that. Secondly, if you enjoy this
23:36
style of betting breakdown, data-driven, sharp contrarian
23:39
betting, monitoring the market, looking for clues and
23:41
indicators, looking for the smart money, low bets, higher
23:44
dollars bet splits, going contrarian system matches, flat
23:48
betting, not parlaying. If this style of betting appeals
23:51
to you, maybe you have adopted some of the tenants of
23:54
data-driven betting and it's been successful and helped you
23:56
to win a little bit more. If that's the case and you want
23:59
to learn more about data-driven betting or just make my day,
24:02
make me happy, could you please go buy my book?
24:05
That's right, I'm an author. I'm not just a gambler, I'm an
24:08
author. I wrote a book called the
24:09
Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
24:11
Just go to Amazon.com and type in the Everything Guide to
24:14
Sports Betting. Pick up a copy for you, or a
24:16
friend or a buddy of yours who parlays everything, or maybe
24:20
someone in a newly legalized state who wants to get into
24:22
betting but has no clue how to start.
24:25
Grab the Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
24:27
It's got everything I've learned in the industry.
24:29
How lines are set, how and why they move, how to read line
24:31
movement, how to locate sharp action, how to place a bet in
24:34
person or online, how to shop for the best line, how to set up
24:37
a bankroll management plan. All included in the Everything
24:40
Guide to Sports Betting. So grab one when I see at the
24:43
book. Bring my book to the book.
24:45
I'll sign it for you. I'll buy you a beer or ginger
24:47
ale next. Have you taken advantage of a 7
24:51
day free trial of Juice Reel or Rhythm?
24:53
Well, if you haven't yet, that's OK.
24:54
You got plenty of time to do it. But I would recommend doing it
24:57
now because there's some great data that you can use from
25:00
Rhythm and Juice Reel to help you cash some tickets.
25:02
So Rhythm of course great for their AI backed models and
25:05
predictions for game bets and player props.
25:07
They helped us cash Darius Slayton over last night, which
25:10
was great. Juice Reel, of course, you can
25:13
tail their Robo Jackson best bet picks.
25:14
Their AI model pumps out 2 picks every day at noon, so you can
25:18
tell those if you want or use it as a, you know, kind of a
25:21
guidepost. If you're leaning and maybe you
25:24
know, Robo's got it, or maybe you're on the opposite side.
25:27
Maybe it makes it layoff. Again, knowledge is power here.
25:30
But the best bet picks the sharp mush system matches the
25:33
arbitrage plays, the betting breakdowns, bets and dollars for
25:36
all the different sports. It's all included with Juice
25:39
Reel. So take advantage of both apps,
25:41
Juice Reel and Rhythm. But please sign up in this
25:44
particular way. You got to you got to sign up
25:45
this way guys. Click those custom links in the
25:48
bio description of each podcast. For example, today it'll say
25:51
something like in episode 151, Josh dishes out a three pack of
25:55
sweats across the market or A5 pack.
25:59
I should say 3 in college, one NBA, one NHL, yadda, yadda,
26:02
yadda. Scroll down, go go below that,
26:04
go past that. There should be two links for
26:06
Rhythm and Juice Real. Click those links, you'll get
26:08
signed up and get a 7 day free trial.
26:11
So as always guys, wrapping it up, I'll leave you with a couple
26:14
things #1 stay sharp, stay contrarian, or sorry I'm
26:18
screwing up my own my own spiel. Whether I see you at the Borgata
26:22
in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New
26:24
Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut at the
26:27
Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge Park Casino or MGM Springfield
26:31
in my neck of the woods in Massachusetts, out in the desert
26:33
where the true grinders get down or Billy Walter sends his number
26:36
runners where the lowest juice possible is found at the South
26:38
Point where sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the
26:41
stadium swimming pool when they cash a big ticket at Circa,
26:44
wherever it may be. You're going to walk up to me.
26:47
Show me a nice Darius Leighton over ticket.
26:49
Show me a Hurricanes ticket. Whatever you do, don't show me G
26:52
men. Daniel Jones just it's it's a
26:55
it's it's a nightmare when you have to sweat.
26:57
Daniel Jones. I thought he might have come
26:59
through for us at the end there, but he didn't of course.
27:01
And those those two overs gross. But guess what guys?
27:05
We got another opportunity here tonight to to start a new
27:07
winning streak. So as always, stay sharp, stay
27:10
contrarian, bet against the public, place yourself on the
27:13
side of the house. Always be with the smart money,
27:15
never against it. Will smart money win every time?
27:17
Of course not. But again, don't let a smart
27:20
money play that loses make you question smart money.
27:23
It's not going to win every time, but you're always playing
27:25
a long game. Smart money's going to win
27:27
around 55 to 60% of the time. That's all you always want to be
27:30
with the sharps, the pros, the wise guys, whatever you want to
27:33
call them, because they have the respect to the books and they
27:35
move numbers. And if we can take away our bias
27:38
and not bet with what bet with what our heart is telling us and
27:41
bet based on what the data is telling us, that's going to let
27:44
us be winning betters long term. So we can we, if we can stick to
27:48
that model, head over heart against the public with the
27:51
house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays, get that CLV.
27:55
If we can do that long term, we're going to be successful
27:57
sports betters. So have a great Tuesday night,
28:00
everybody. Let's see if we can find a way
28:02
to get three out of five tonight.
28:03
He got a winning night. And then of course, we'll be
28:05
right back at it for a big Wednesday edition of the All
28:08
Systems Go pod, which will be episode 152 tomorrow, which is
28:13
again, of course, always powered by rhythm.
28:16
But have a good night everybody. Enjoy the sweats and we'll be
28:19
right back at it for a big pod tomorrow.
28:21
Good luck and have a great night.