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The September Slide: Rate Hikes, $100 Oil, and Defensive Strategies · The SPY Trader

• 0:00
  Hello everyone and welcome back to the Spy Trader podcast !
• 0:04
  It is 2:30 pm on Tuesday , September 15th , 2026 , here on the Pacific coast .
• 0:12
  I am your host , Penny Munk , and we have a lot to unpack in today’s afternoon market update .
• 0:18
  Today felt a bit like a rollercoaster that only goes down as the U.S.
• 0:22
  stock market is experiencing significant downward pressure .
• 0:27
  We are seeing a perfect storm of rising interest rates , surging energy prices , and geopolitical instability .
• 0:34
  All major indices are lower today , continuing a volatile start to the month .
• 0:39
  The S&P 500 , which we track through the SPY ETF , fell 0.45 percent to close at 7,585.73 .
• 0:51
  The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 328 points , or 0.61 percent , and the techheavy Nasdaq Composite , or the QQQ , suffered the steepest decline , falling 0.78 percent due to its high concentration of interestratesensitive technology stocks .
• 1:10
  Smallcap stocks in the Russell 2000 also struggled , declining 0.8 percent .
• 1:16
  The primary driver of today's selloff is the dual threat of inflation and rising borrowing costs .
• 1:23
  The Federal Reserve began its twoday policy meeting today , and markets are pricing in a high probability of a 25basispoint rate hike tomorrow .
• 1:32
  This would be the first increase since 2023 as the Fed battles persistent 3.4 percent headline inflation .
• 1:40
  We also saw the 10year Treasury yield hit a 19year high , briefly touching 5.04 percent , which affects instruments like the TLT and makes equities less attractive .
• 1:53
  On top of that , crude oil prices have broken through 100 dollars per barrel , with WTI at 102.88 , due to escalating tensions in the Middle East .
• 2:03
  Looking at our sectors , the Energy sector , or XLE , was a rare bright spot today led by Chevron , ticker CVX , which rose 2.53 percent .
• 2:14
  Defensive sectors like Utilities or XLU also showed some resilience .
• 2:19
  However , Technology and Consumer Discretionary took a hit .
• 2:23
  Amazon fell 2.02 percent following reports of data loss at AWS facilities in the Middle East , while Alphabet and Microsoft saw declines as news suggested AI safety regulations might slow development .
• 2:38
  In other company news , JPMorgan Chase bucked the trend , rising 1.11 percent after announcing a dividend increase , and Meta Platforms rose 0.70 percent as investors cheered their plans for the new Arke AI chip .
• 2:54
  Rocket Lab also made waves by fully funding its acquisition of Iridium .
• 2:59
  On the downside , Nike was the Dow's worst performer , dropping 2.35 percent as energy prices spark fears of a pullback in consumer spending .
• 3:09
  From an analytical perspective , the market is in a derisking phase .
• 3:13
  Historically , September is the weakest month for stocks , and 2026 is following that pattern .
• 3:20
  Investors are shifting from growth at any price toward quality and income .
• 3:25
  My recommendations today focus on defensive positioning .
• 3:29
  Given the likelihood of a Fed hike tomorrow , consider reducing exposure to highmultiple tech in the QQQ .
• 3:37
  Instead , look at the iShares Core Dividend Growth ETF , ticker DGRO , or the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund , XLF , to gain exposure to highquality banks like JPMorgan .
• 3:52
  Since geopolitical tensions remain high , holding an energy position like the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund , XLE , provides a good hedge .
• 4:01
  For those looking at real estate , the Vanguard Real Estate ETF , VNQ , offers a hard asset buffer if yields stabilize .
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  Finally , keeping a higher cash balance in shortduration instruments like the iShares 03 Month Treasury Bond ETF , SGOV , is a prudent move until the Fed's path becomes clearer .
• 4:21
  That’s it for now !
• 4:23
  Stay smart and stay safe out there .