Latest / Trend Watch / Episode 52: The 4th Turning vs. The Rule of Law

Transcript

Episode 52: The 4th Turning vs. The Rule of Law · Trend Watch

• 0:00
  I'm your host, Neil Howe, and this is Trend Watch.
• 0:29
  SPEAKER_01: Today is February 26, 2025, and this is Trend Watch.
• 0:33
  SPEAKER_01: Welcome back, everybody.
• 0:35
  SPEAKER_01: As usual, I have on my fellow analyst, Christian Ford.
• 0:39
  SPEAKER_00: So, Christian, how was your week?
• 0:41
  SPEAKER_00: It was pretty good, Neil.
• 0:41
  SPEAKER_00: You know, not much to report, taking it slow.
• 0:44
  SPEAKER_00: We got the nice weather coming into D.C.
• 0:46
  SPEAKER_00: in the 60s, so going on a lot of walks.
• 0:49
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, absolutely.
• 0:50
  SPEAKER_01: It's been beautiful.
• 0:52
  I do think that there's a good chance that when it's the
• 0:55
  beginning of the end for winter,
• 0:57
  SPEAKER_01: maybe I can dare say that.
• 0:58
  SPEAKER_01: Although,
• 0:59
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 0:59
  SPEAKER_01: I'm still,
• 1:00
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 1:00
  SPEAKER_01: wary of winter storms and,
• 1:03
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 1:04
  SPEAKER_01: and planes going down.
• 1:05
  SPEAKER_01: I keep noticing I have to take that flight away.
• 1:09
  SPEAKER_01: from Reagan, from DCA, either to New York or Boston.
• 1:14
  SPEAKER_01: And I just saw that Boston flight,
• 1:16
  SPEAKER_01: the very one I take,
• 1:17
  SPEAKER_01: came in last night and had to do an emergency lift,
• 1:22
  SPEAKER_01: a liftoff when it was just about to land,
• 1:24
  SPEAKER_01: right?
• 1:25
  SPEAKER_01: Scaring the bejesus out of all the passengers because once again,
• 1:28
  SPEAKER_01: they had some foul up with air traffic control.
• 1:32
  SPEAKER_01: I don't think any of the air traffic controllers have been fired,
• 1:35
  SPEAKER_01: but I do know there's been attrition in the FAA.
• 1:38
  SPEAKER_01: Whoa, I hope we don't deconstruct that part of government.
• 1:42
  SPEAKER_01: Just leave that intact, please.
• 1:44
  SPEAKER_01: I do want to make it down to the tarmac.
• 1:48
  SPEAKER_01: As always,
• 1:49
  SPEAKER_01: let me remind you,
• 1:50
  SPEAKER_01: if you like this podcast,
• 1:52
  SPEAKER_01: go ahead,
• 1:52
  SPEAKER_01: share it with your family and friends,
• 1:54
  SPEAKER_01: repost it on social media.
• 1:56
  SPEAKER_01: From now on, only some episodes will remain free.
• 1:59
  SPEAKER_01: Let's get into this podcast.
• 2:03
  SPEAKER_01: As always,
• 2:03
  SPEAKER_01: we have a lot to talk about,
• 2:05
  SPEAKER_01: and I should say now more than ever,
• 2:07
  SPEAKER_01: right,
• 2:08
  SPEAKER_01: just what's happening.
• 2:09
  SPEAKER_01: I mean,
• 2:10
  SPEAKER_01: I think it's fair to say,
• 2:11
  SPEAKER_01: Christian,
• 2:11
  SPEAKER_01: when we look at the news now in the week,
• 2:13
  SPEAKER_01: it's just like an avalanche.
• 2:15
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, there's so much.
• 2:17
  SPEAKER_01: to comment on,
• 2:19
  SPEAKER_01: let's be honest,
• 2:19
  SPEAKER_01: I mean,
• 2:20
  SPEAKER_01: the last couple of years,
• 2:21
  SPEAKER_01: sometimes,
• 2:21
  SPEAKER_01: huh,
• 2:22
  SPEAKER_01: what's going on,
• 2:23
  SPEAKER_01: right?
• 2:25
  SPEAKER_01: Maybe not much,
• 2:26
  but now it's so many different kinds of events overflow with significance,
• 2:31
  SPEAKER_01: right?
• 2:33
  But let's just go down some of the topics that we're going to
• 2:35
  cover today,
• 2:36
  SPEAKER_01: starting off with the big news on yesterday,
• 2:38
  SPEAKER_01: which was Tuesday,
• 2:39
  SPEAKER_01: House Republicans narrowly passed a budget resolution
• 2:44
  That extends Trump's 2017 tax cuts,
• 2:49
  yet also substantially adds to future federal deficits.
• 2:54
  The Senate also passed their plan the earlier week,
• 2:57
  but this is far more significant.
• 3:00
  SPEAKER_01: The next story,
• 3:01
  Trump's initiatives to overhaul programs and dismiss senior
• 3:05
  government executives
• 3:06
  SPEAKER_01: has increasingly become enmeshed in federal court challenges,
• 3:11
  SPEAKER_01: the first of which reached the Supreme Court on Friday.
• 3:15
  SPEAKER_01: So we will talk about that.
• 3:16
  SPEAKER_01: And yes,
• 3:17
  SPEAKER_01: over the past week,
• 3:18
  several of Trump's cabinet members have rebuked Elon Musk for
• 3:23
  his demand that
• 3:24
  SPEAKER_01: federal workers justify their positions at work.
• 3:28
  revealing an emerging rift between MAGA populists and the Doge
• 3:33
  Tech Bros.
• 3:34
  SPEAKER_01: So, yeah, that's been evident for a while, so we will explore that.
• 3:39
  SPEAKER_01: Going abroad...
• 3:41
  SPEAKER_01: On Monday, the U.S.
• 3:43
  SPEAKER_01: voted against a U.N.
• 3:45
  SPEAKER_01: resolution branding Vladimir Putin as an aggressor,
• 3:49
  further confirming Trump's effort to bring America closer to
• 3:53
  Russia and distance
• 3:55
  SPEAKER_01: itself from its European allies.
• 3:57
  Certainly big news in Germany,
• 3:59
  the center-right CDU-CSU came in first place.
• 4:04
  SPEAKER_01: As expected,
• 4:05
  SPEAKER_01: I might say,
• 4:05
  SPEAKER_01: winning 29% of the seats in the Reichstag,
• 4:09
  they are expected to form a coalition with one or two other
• 4:12
  parties that will
• 4:13
  SPEAKER_01: exclude the alt-right AFD,
• 4:16
  SPEAKER_01: which came in second,
• 4:18
  SPEAKER_01: just about as expected,
• 4:19
  SPEAKER_01: at 21%.
• 4:21
  SPEAKER_01: So with that, I think that's enough.
• 4:24
  SPEAKER_01: That will take us a lot of different places, I think.
• 4:28
  SPEAKER_01: Why don't you just go into the markets and we can take it from there?
• 4:33
  SPEAKER_00: All right.
• 4:33
  Today,
• 4:34
  the S&P 500 closed flat,
• 4:37
  but over the last five market days is down 3.06%.
• 4:40
  SPEAKER_00: Global Dow has looked a little better.
• 4:43
  SPEAKER_00: Today, it closed up 0.2%.
• 4:45
  SPEAKER_00: And over the last five days is down 0.41%.
• 4:49
  SPEAKER_00: As for the VIX, that's around 19.1%.
• 4:51
  SPEAKER_00: That is, you know, higher than what we were seeing on our last podcast.
• 4:55
  SPEAKER_00: We're around 15.
• 4:57
  SPEAKER_00: And as for the 10-year Treasury,
• 4:58
  SPEAKER_00: that is at 4.257%,
• 5:01
  SPEAKER_00: down 28.1 basis points over the last five days.
• 5:06
  SPEAKER_00: Well, what's going on?
• 5:08
  SPEAKER_01: How's the VIX, by the way?
• 5:09
  SPEAKER_01: Do we cover that?
• 5:10
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, that's at 19%.
• 5:12
  SPEAKER_01: 19, yeah, a little more than it was before, right?
• 5:17
  SPEAKER_01: Pretty sort of expected value, implied volatility looking forward.
• 5:23
  SPEAKER_01: I think you can say that at least some of this is policy determined.
• 5:27
  SPEAKER_01: You got these huge tariff hikes hanging over us, right?
• 5:31
  SPEAKER_01: We do not know if Trump is actually going to go ahead.
• 5:34
  SPEAKER_01: After this 30-day pause,
• 5:36
  SPEAKER_01: he did,
• 5:37
  SPEAKER_01: I believe,
• 5:38
  SPEAKER_01: on Monday,
• 5:39
  SPEAKER_01: right,
• 5:39
  SPEAKER_01: say something to the effect that,
• 5:41
  SPEAKER_01: well,
• 5:41
  SPEAKER_01: he's planning on slapping him back on again,
• 5:43
  SPEAKER_01: right?
• 5:44
  SPEAKER_01: That's a little bit of a game of chicken with the markets.
• 5:48
  SPEAKER_01: Like, do you think he's really going to do it?
• 5:51
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know.
• 5:51
  SPEAKER_01: You know, there's a little bit of adrenaline here.
• 5:55
  SPEAKER_01: These are big tariffs on a huge amount of cross-border trade, right?
• 5:59
  SPEAKER_01: So integrated are these economies, right?
• 6:03
  SPEAKER_01: So there's a panic factor.
• 6:05
  And then we might talk a little bit,
• 6:08
  Christian,
• 6:08
  about falling consumer sentiment,
• 6:12
  right?
• 6:12
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 6:13
  SPEAKER_01: Both in the Michigan and the conference board, right?
• 6:16
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 6:16
  SPEAKER_00: I have the Michigan right here in front of me.
• 6:18
  SPEAKER_00: The consumer sentiment fell from 71.1 in January to 64.7 in February.
• 6:22
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 6:26
  SPEAKER_01: These are big drops, and there is an America right now, right?
• 6:32
  We have this new regime change,
• 6:34
  and I think it's fair to say this isn't just an election.
• 6:37
  SPEAKER_01: It truly feels like a regime change, right?
• 6:40
  SPEAKER_01: Is that fair to say?
• 6:41
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 6:42
  SPEAKER_01: Can I use the word?
• 6:43
  SPEAKER_01: And people are wondering, what the hell is going to happen?
• 6:47
  SPEAKER_01: Are we going to have these big tariffs?
• 6:49
  SPEAKER_01: Are we going to have some huge currency realignment?
• 6:52
  SPEAKER_01: Are we going to have some huge foreign policy realignment?
• 6:56
  SPEAKER_01: There's a great deal of uncertainty in the air.
• 6:59
  And and a feeling to among consumers that they want to dial
• 7:03
  back a little bit.
• 7:04
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 7:05
  SPEAKER_01: And and I'll tell you what I see.
• 7:07
  SPEAKER_01: Your tier two numbers that really impressed me.
• 7:10
  SPEAKER_01: And this is from February 12th to today.
• 7:14
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 7:15
  SPEAKER_01: The 10 year break even.
• 7:17
  That's the you know,
• 7:18
  just by looking at the the tips and the you know,
• 7:21
  the 10 year nominal.
• 7:23
  SPEAKER_01: What people think.
• 7:24
  believe inflation will be over the next 10 years,
• 7:28
  was 2.46 on February 12th.
• 7:31
  SPEAKER_01: Today it's 2.36.
• 7:32
  SPEAKER_01: That's 10 basis points down in just, what, two weeks?
• 7:39
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, that's pretty big.
• 7:40
  SPEAKER_01: The tips yield is even down even more.
• 7:42
  SPEAKER_01: So this is the real yield, right?
• 7:46
  SPEAKER_01: Back on February 12th was 2.16.
• 7:48
  SPEAKER_01: Now it's at 1.92.
• 7:50
  SPEAKER_01: That's 24 basis points down.
• 7:54
  SPEAKER_01: That points to a decelerating economy.
• 7:57
  SPEAKER_01: And I tell you, that's got the Fed probably ready for action, right?
• 8:02
  SPEAKER_01: Maybe ready to start cutting again.
• 8:04
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, if this keeps up,
• 8:07
  SPEAKER_01: you'll have another inverted yield curve, right?
• 8:10
  SPEAKER_01: In fact, we're just about
• 8:12
  SPEAKER_01: even now.
• 8:13
  SPEAKER_01: I think we're just about,
• 8:14
  SPEAKER_01: you remember,
• 8:14
  SPEAKER_01: we were inverted so long,
• 8:16
  SPEAKER_01: then we went into a de-inversion.
• 8:18
  SPEAKER_01: I think we're just about to invert again.
• 8:20
  SPEAKER_01: And I think the Fed's going to have to cut to keep that from happening.
• 8:23
  SPEAKER_01: They also have one eye on Trump, right?
• 8:26
  SPEAKER_01: Because will Trump be interested in what the Fed does?
• 8:29
  SPEAKER_01: Well,
• 8:29
  SPEAKER_01: I guarantee you,
• 8:30
  SPEAKER_01: if the market keeps going down and unemployment starts going up,
• 8:34
  SPEAKER_01: Trump will be talking a lot about the Fed.
• 8:36
  And not only that,
• 8:37
  as we will see,
• 8:38
  I think in a moment,
• 8:39
  Trump may feel he has power.
• 8:42
  SPEAKER_01: to do something about the Fed, right?
• 8:44
  SPEAKER_01: So what else is going on?
• 8:45
  SPEAKER_01: Anything around the world?
• 8:46
  SPEAKER_00: We have some flash PMIs from the Eurozone for February.
• 8:52
  SPEAKER_00: Not looking great.
• 8:53
  SPEAKER_00: Manufacturing did rise from 56.6 to, or I mean, 46.6 to 47.3.
• 8:57
  SPEAKER_00: So a little rise, but still negative.
• 8:59
  SPEAKER_00: And then services, that fell from 51.3 to 50.7.
• 9:10
  SPEAKER_00: How long has manufacturing been contracting in Europe?
• 9:14
  SPEAKER_01: I don't have that in front of me, but it's been quite a while.
• 9:16
  SPEAKER_01: It goes back too far.
• 9:17
  SPEAKER_01: It's just lost up the edge of your screen somewhere.
• 9:20
  SPEAKER_01: I totally get it.
• 9:21
  SPEAKER_01: I totally understand.
• 9:22
  SPEAKER_01: What else is going on?
• 9:24
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, that's all we got from around the world.
• 9:26
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 9:27
  SPEAKER_00: Should we move to our first story?
• 9:28
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, let's plunge into it.
• 9:30
  SPEAKER_00: Yes,
• 9:31
  SPEAKER_00: on Tuesday,
• 9:32
  House Republicans narrowly passed a budget framework with the
• 9:35
  final vote coming in
• 9:37
  SPEAKER_00: at 217 to 215.
• 9:40
  SPEAKER_00: The bill sets the blueprint for Trump's legislative agenda.
• 9:44
  SPEAKER_00: It calls for $4.5 trillion in tax cuts and $2 trillion in spending cuts.
• 9:50
  It also includes $100 billion in new spending on immigration
• 9:52
  and military and
• 9:54
  SPEAKER_00: requires $880 billion in cuts to federal programs.
• 9:58
  SPEAKER_00: And it also raises the debt limit by $4 trillion.
• 10:02
  SPEAKER_00: Now, the final vote required some arm-twisting, Neil.
• 10:04
  SPEAKER_00: Some Republicans thought the budget cuts weren't deep enough,
• 10:07
  SPEAKER_00: and others,
• 10:08
  SPEAKER_00: other more moderate Republicans,
• 10:09
  SPEAKER_00: thought it went too far.
• 10:10
  Ultimately,
• 10:11
  Trump had to make some last-minute phone calls to persuade the holdouts.
• 10:17
  Now,
• 10:17
  the bill would allow the Senate to bypass a Democratic
• 10:20
  filibuster through reconciliation.
• 10:24
  SPEAKER_00: Senate Republicans have already called for changes,
• 10:27
  and it's going to be a little dicey of how quickly them and the
• 10:31
  House Republicans
• 10:32
  SPEAKER_00: can come to an agreement.
• 10:34
  Yeah,
• 10:35
  but look,
• 10:35
  I think it's quite an accomplishment that they got it through.
• 10:38
  SPEAKER_01: I'm kind of amazed, you know, hats off, really, right, to the Democrats.
• 10:44
  SPEAKER_01: To the GOP and to, you know, for their effort, right?
• 10:47
  SPEAKER_00: Did you expect it?
• 10:49
  SPEAKER_00: I did not expect them to only, you know, they only had that one defector.
• 10:52
  SPEAKER_00: I think it was what, Macy?
• 10:53
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I was expecting.
• 10:55
  SPEAKER_01: That was Thomas Macy.
• 10:56
  SPEAKER_01: Of course, he's not going to vote for anything.
• 10:58
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, he's just a curmudgeon.
• 10:59
  SPEAKER_01: And if Trump says anything,
• 11:01
  SPEAKER_01: I think Macy will say,
• 11:02
  SPEAKER_01: well,
• 11:03
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 11:03
  SPEAKER_01: come and tell me to my face,
• 11:05
  SPEAKER_01: you know.
• 11:06
  if your secret service team can find my district way out in the
• 11:10
  hollers here.
• 11:10
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, Macy doesn't care.
• 11:13
  SPEAKER_01: But it is interesting because in the election,
• 11:16
  SPEAKER_01: they had a five-point majority,
• 11:17
  SPEAKER_01: right,
• 11:18
  SPEAKER_01: 220 to 2015.
• 11:19
  But two GOP seats are vacant,
• 11:21
  Matt Getz and Mike Waltz,
• 11:23
  right,
• 11:23
  for two different reasons.
• 11:25
  SPEAKER_01: Anyway, they're gone.
• 11:26
  SPEAKER_01: Elise Stefanik is still there.
• 11:30
  SPEAKER_01: She's still voting.
• 11:31
  SPEAKER_01: She has been selected to be Trump's envoy to the U.N.,
• 11:36
  But for obvious reasons,
• 11:38
  they want her to still be in the House and voting.
• 11:42
  SPEAKER_01: So,
• 11:42
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 11:43
  she did not have to actually cast that vote against all the
• 11:49
  other democracies of
• 11:50
  SPEAKER_01: the world,
• 11:51
  SPEAKER_01: which we'll get to a little bit later.
• 11:53
  SPEAKER_01: She's still there in the House, right?
• 11:55
  SPEAKER_01: So they effectively have a 218 to 215.
• 11:58
  SPEAKER_01: So you have an edge of three.
• 12:01
  SPEAKER_01: But one Democrat didn't show up.
• 12:04
  SPEAKER_01: And Massey voted no instead of yes.
• 12:07
  SPEAKER_01: So anyway, that gave them two, right?
• 12:10
  SPEAKER_01: 217 to 215.
• 12:11
  SPEAKER_01: Anyway, just to explain how they got that edge.
• 12:13
  SPEAKER_01: Still really good, right?
• 12:15
  SPEAKER_01: They got everyone else to vote.
• 12:16
  SPEAKER_01: What can we say about the actual plan?
• 12:19
  SPEAKER_01: It's actually surprisingly unsurprising.
• 12:22
  The entire plan is really oriented around finding money for the
• 12:27
  renewal of the
• 12:28
  SPEAKER_01: Trump administration.
• 12:29
  SPEAKER_01: 2017 tax cut.
• 12:31
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, everything else is secondary to that, right?
• 12:34
  SPEAKER_01: Because in order to clear $4.5 trillion,
• 12:38
  SPEAKER_01: which is the upper limit in what they can allow in tax cuts,
• 12:42
  SPEAKER_01: and extending the Trump tax cut is going to take at least $4.0 of that,
• 12:47
  SPEAKER_01: right?
• 12:48
  SPEAKER_01: But to do that...
• 12:50
  SPEAKER_01: They have to do everything else to clear out a bunch of other stuff.
• 12:54
  SPEAKER_01: So they basically cut $1.7 trillion in outlays.
• 12:58
  SPEAKER_01: They're going to cut nearly a trillion from Medicaid and Medicare.
• 13:02
  If it all comes from Medicaid,
• 13:03
  that's going to be an 11% cut in Medicaid payments,
• 13:07
  right?
• 13:08
  SPEAKER_01: A third of a trillion from education and the workforce,
• 13:11
  SPEAKER_01: big cuts to school,
• 13:12
  SPEAKER_01: nutrition,
• 13:13
  SPEAKER_01: college lending.
• 13:15
  Well,
• 13:15
  you know,
• 13:15
  none of the Republicans are going to shed tears over that.
• 13:18
  SPEAKER_01: 0.2 trillion agriculture.
• 13:21
  SPEAKER_01: If that all comes from SNAP, right?
• 13:23
  SPEAKER_01: Food stamps, that's going to be 22% cut in food stamps.
• 13:28
  SPEAKER_01: 0.6 trillion in elsewhere, meaning who knows?
• 13:33
  SPEAKER_01: And they have to pay for a little bit more.
• 13:35
  SPEAKER_01: It's actually surprisingly little.
• 13:37
  SPEAKER_01: $0.2 trillion to judiciary and homeland security.
• 13:41
  SPEAKER_01: That's for the anti-immigration effort.
• 13:43
  And $0.1 trillion in defense,
• 13:45
  probably to pay for defense joining the anti-immigration effort.
• 13:50
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 13:52
  SPEAKER_01: And that's kind of it.
• 13:54
  SPEAKER_01: So we might want to talk about who are the big losers on this deal.
• 13:59
  SPEAKER_01: I think you could say the deficit hawks.
• 14:03
  I mean,
• 14:03
  after all,
• 14:05
  we have $2.8 trillion in extra deficits over the next 10 years.
• 14:10
  SPEAKER_01: Another $0.6 trillion in extra interest.
• 14:14
  SPEAKER_01: That's going to be $3.4 trillion and more indebtedness.
• 14:19
  SPEAKER_01: So I think
• 14:20
  SPEAKER_01: The Committee for Responsible Federal Budget,
• 14:23
  SPEAKER_01: I think,
• 14:24
  SPEAKER_01: says instead of,
• 14:27
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know,
• 14:29
  SPEAKER_01: 111 or 114 percent of GDP,
• 14:31
  SPEAKER_01: we're going to be up at 125 percent of GDP or something like that.
• 14:35
  And,
• 14:35
  of course,
• 14:35
  this assumes,
• 14:36
  you know,
• 14:36
  no recession and all kind of other good things.
• 14:40
  SPEAKER_01: But.
• 14:42
  SPEAKER_01: That's one big loser.
• 14:43
  The other big loser is,
• 14:45
  I think,
• 14:48
  not just the deficit hawks,
• 14:49
  but the fiscal hawks,
• 14:50
  right?
• 14:51
  SPEAKER_01: A lot of the Republicans,
• 14:53
  SPEAKER_01: certainly Roger Wicker in the Senate and Representative Rogers,
• 14:58
  SPEAKER_01: who's head of the House Armed Services Committee,
• 15:00
  SPEAKER_01: they want more money into defense,
• 15:03
  SPEAKER_01: right?
• 15:04
  SPEAKER_01: We need...
• 15:05
  SPEAKER_01: We need more weapons.
• 15:07
  SPEAKER_01: We need more missiles.
• 15:08
  We need more all kinds of stuff because we've been underfunding
• 15:12
  our military.
• 15:14
  SPEAKER_01: We've talked about that in previous episodes.
• 15:16
  SPEAKER_01: I don't have to repeat it here, but they really need anything.
• 15:19
  SPEAKER_01: They just got a little bit to help with this anti-immigration effort.
• 15:24
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, how do you see it?
• 15:26
  SPEAKER_01: We could also talk about
• 15:28
  moderate Republicans who are nervous about big cuts to poverty
• 15:32
  programs and the
• 15:34
  SPEAKER_01: conservative Republicans who hate to see a bigger deficit.
• 15:38
  SPEAKER_01: I mean,
• 15:39
  Tom Massey wouldn't vote for it because he said he's piling up
• 15:42
  additional trillions
• 15:44
  SPEAKER_01: in national debt.
• 15:45
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, what the hell is this?
• 15:47
  SPEAKER_01: But again, it gets back to that problem
• 15:50
  How are you going to make people feel good when you're cutting
• 15:53
  out the spending
• 15:54
  SPEAKER_01: just to continue the tax rates we already have,
• 15:58
  SPEAKER_01: right?
• 15:58
  SPEAKER_01: And I think that's Trump's problem here.
• 16:01
  SPEAKER_01: There's no way to make this feel good.