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MMA DFS - FIGHT NIGHT | 10/18/25 | DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:04
  Speaker 1: Fall systems go clear, you're lifting?
• 0:35
  Speaker 2: What's going on? Everybody? Back for another UFC show with
• 0:39
  Speaker 2: my man Big Marley talking fights. We got thirteen of
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: them in Vancouver, Canada. That means a live crowd, live crowd,
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: always good. Thirteen fights, fingers crossed, we keep them always good.
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: Great main event. I wanted to see the Ritter Fluffy,
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: no doubt about that, but a very similar fighter in
• 0:56
  Speaker 2: Brendan Allen, so I'm excited for that main event. Only
• 0:59
  Speaker 2: one favorite above minus four fifty Right now. As you
• 1:03
  Speaker 2: can see, we'll go through a couple line movement things.
• 1:07
  Speaker 2: I put these up on Wednesday night. It was a
• 1:08
  Speaker 2: busy week for me, but there was some line movement
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: since yesterday, so I'm excited to talk through it. My
• 1:14
  Speaker 2: man Big Marley, how we doing today?
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: Good?
• 1:17
  Speaker 3: Yes, not the greatest card of all time, but we
• 1:21
  Speaker 3: still got one hundred k up top. I remember the
• 1:23
  Speaker 3: days where we used to beg for one hundred k cards,
• 1:25
  Speaker 3: so can't complain.
• 1:26
  Speaker 2: I guess, yeah, absolutely, back in the good old days.
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: But yeah, I mean the prizes were way less. So
• 1:32
  Speaker 2: the good old days, the battle days, I mean, people
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: didn't know exactly what they were doing in MMA I
• 1:36
  Speaker 2: think it was a lot softer people, a lot more
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: sharps have joined the COVID days really grew the sport though,
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: which is exactly what we want. When we're talking some dfs.
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: Next week, we do have pay per view season aspinall
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: and gones, we should get some big prizes there. I mean,
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: we got a bunch of cards to finish out the year,
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: so I'm excited for that. Who have we gotten, Chad
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: always Ysn? Good to see Ysn. I hope you did
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: get in the discord and seen you in there because
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: you got that free membership last week though, so take
• 2:04
  Speaker 2: down in here. Good to see you as well. Yeah,
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: any broadslaid o review Big Marley before we go Fight
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: by fight.
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: I think it's a pretty tough one.
• 2:12
  Speaker 3: I was really searching for five star fights on this one.
• 2:15
  Speaker 3: Got a handful of fours. I was really gonna put
• 2:17
  Speaker 3: the main event as a four as well. Uh so
• 2:19
  Speaker 3: I might change this up as we go. I just
• 2:21
  Speaker 3: threw the Dover fight as a four as well. But yeah,
• 2:25
  Speaker 3: it's kind of a I haven't built lineups. I did
• 2:28
  Speaker 3: all my my research on Sunday and then a little
• 2:31
  Speaker 3: bit here in the last couple hours. I was doing some,
• 2:36
  Speaker 3: but I'm actually gonna be on vacation for this card.
• 2:38
  Speaker 3: I don't even know if I'll be able to watch it.
• 2:40
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna go down to Florida for uh, just hanging
• 2:42
  Speaker 3: out with the wife.
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: For this weekend.
• 2:44
  Speaker 3: So if if I'm at a bar watching it, hopefully
• 2:46
  Speaker 3: I'll have a sweat going.
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: Uh, but we'll see.
• 2:49
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna have a limited number of lineups this weekend
• 2:51
  Speaker 3: because I don't know if I'll be able to change anything,
• 2:53
  Speaker 3: but hoping we keep all these fights.
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: That's awesome. Good to good to see.
• 2:57
  Speaker 4: Uh.
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: You need help connecting the discord, go email you can
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: email info at chipination dot com. They'll help you out. Otherwise,
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: I think more maybe frequency ask frequent ask questions. You
• 3:12
  Speaker 2: can click on this and I think maybe that'll help
• 3:14
  Speaker 2: you get in the discord. Ysn otherise if you don't
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: know yet, email or email info at chip nation dot com.
• 3:22
  Speaker 2: Good to see you in here, Nickel as well. My brewers,
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: they stink they're down three to Oh. We got some
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: Sunday night football going on right now to or what
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: am I talking about? Thursday night football going on right now?
• 3:33
  Speaker 2: But you enjoy your vacation. What did Big drig say,
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: sorry about the Yeah there you go. Yeah, we'll go
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: fight by fight by them the top. I mean, yeah,
• 3:42
  Speaker 2: the Brewers just they can't hit themselves out of a
• 3:44
  Speaker 2: paper bag, as you. Rysen likes to say that team
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: is pathetic, no doubt about that. But hey, these fights,
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: let's hope to try and win some money this week.
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: Broadside overview for me, I like plenty of live dogs. Again,
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: this is now dover lines minus four fifty. We do
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: have back off minus three twenty, but only one favorite
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: above minus three fifty. That means a lot of live
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: dogs on this card. I agree with Big Marley like
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: there's not too many five star fights. I do think
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: main events the best. I think there's two clear mid
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: tier fights for Vola Nelson, me Lot Holland. After that,
• 4:14
  Speaker 2: I think it'll be relatively spread out. So when we
• 4:17
  Speaker 2: go through the cars, I don't know why this isn't
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: show and you do have it a four star, and
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: we have it on the stone showing a four star too,
• 4:23
  Speaker 2: so we'll get that taken care of. But that's my
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: broad slide o review. A lot of live dogs on
• 4:27
  Speaker 2: this card because there's only one favorite greater than minus
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: three to fifty right now. If you do want to
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: join us at the Nation, you can see right above
• 4:34
  Speaker 2: five days for nineteen bucks using the coach ship. Nineteen
• 4:37
  Speaker 2: can't get a better deal nineteen dollars. If you sign
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: up right now, you get a bunch of NFL get
• 4:42
  Speaker 2: well Thursday right now, but you get two Monday games again,
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: you get early Sunday football, you get main slave football,
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: you get some NHL. I think NASCAR College football shout
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: out to the college football team absolutely crush it crushes.
• 4:55
  Speaker 2: Dave said, yeah, super spread out or super balance spread out. Ownership. Yeah,
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: I'm looking at our ownership projections right now. Our initial ones.
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: No fighter above fifty percent right now, and only three
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: above forty percent. So you nailed it on the head.
• 5:08
  Speaker 2: And we don't even have one under ten percent right now.
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: I wouldn't be surprised if a couple got to like
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: eight percent, maybe a seven. But I agree with you.
• 5:16
  Speaker 2: I think that's a good broad slate overview as well.
• 5:18
  Speaker 2: Ownership pretty spread out on this card, all right, Let's
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: start bottom to top, like always, not a fight I
• 5:26
  Speaker 2: have too much interest in. But the only fight where
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: you will see the cheaper fighter. As the favorites. We
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: have Melissa Crodon minus one twenty two, Tyana R. Lisboa
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: plus one h two plus one fifty for this fight
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: to finish. Croden plus two to seventy five inside the distance,
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: Lisboa plus three seventy five. This fight's really easy for me.
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: I mean, I have no interest in Lisboa unless you
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: think she can She can wrestle and have success, and
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: again she is probably wanting to get it to the mat.
• 5:51
  Speaker 2: I think Croden has the clear advantage on the feet,
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: the only one making their UFC debut this week, but
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: she looked pretty solid on the feet. Has finished all
• 5:58
  Speaker 2: six of her wins now not a Goren's great competition.
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: Five have come by knockout. But I don't really think
• 6:04
  Speaker 2: tanaroos Boa is very good either. So I want your
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: take on this fight. But also Croden wins. I say
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: she scores seventy eight. What percent do you think is optimal? Pennax,
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: you always talk about that, what do you think that
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: is optimal? At seventy eight hundred? Break this one down
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: and good to see and they d a lot of
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: fellas in here probably watching a couple of different screens.
• 6:24
  Speaker 2: We appreciate you all hanging out.
• 6:27
  Speaker 3: Yeah, on this card seventy eight, I think you could
• 6:31
  Speaker 3: get there, So I'd give it a good twenty to
• 6:34
  Speaker 3: twenty five percent chance, right, I don't know.
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: I think that'd be pretty decent.
• 6:39
  Speaker 3: And I'm not too interested in this fight because I
• 6:42
  Speaker 3: do think that's kind of where her her win points
• 6:46
  Speaker 3: will be if she does get it done. I do
• 6:48
  Speaker 3: think she's probably the better striker. If she can keep
• 6:50
  Speaker 3: this at range, I think she's gonna win the fight.
• 6:52
  Speaker 3: But Liz Boa, I think is a striker as well,
• 6:56
  Speaker 3: but she is the more proven fighter, the one I
• 6:59
  Speaker 3: think that I can mix in takedowns in this fight,
• 7:01
  Speaker 3: and if she can get takedowns, I don't know.
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: I don't know how good Crodon will be off of
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: her back.
• 7:07
  Speaker 3: I didn't do a ton of research on this fight,
• 7:09
  Speaker 3: to be honest with you, but I'm kind of just
• 7:11
  Speaker 3: going against the grain on this run. I think that
• 7:13
  Speaker 3: Crowdon will get ownership because of this line movement, and
• 7:16
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna try and stay away from this fight hoping
• 7:20
  Speaker 3: that Liz bo wins a split and she only scores
• 7:22
  Speaker 3: sixty to seventy herself. It's more of I'm gonna play
• 7:26
  Speaker 3: it like a one star because I'm probably not gonna
• 7:28
  Speaker 3: play it with you know, ten or less lineups this week.
• 7:30
  Speaker 3: But if I was emmying, I wouldn't want to get
• 7:33
  Speaker 3: burned by having no crowdon, so I'd want a little
• 7:35
  Speaker 3: bit of her, wouldn't want to be too far under
• 7:37
  Speaker 3: the field. And then Liz Boa, I think that she
• 7:40
  Speaker 3: will be one of the lowest owned fighters on the card,
• 7:43
  Speaker 3: and if she does win, I would think that a
• 7:45
  Speaker 3: couple of takedowns are gonna come in there and she
• 7:47
  Speaker 3: could hang on to six to eight minutes top control.
• 7:50
  Speaker 3: So I would not x out Liz Boa and the
• 7:54
  Speaker 3: big flagship.
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: Fucking mute donkey my bad. So if I'm playing twenty
• 8:09
  Speaker 2: or less, I know. If I'm playing twenty or less,
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: I'm probably I don't know that I've expanded my pool
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: a lot of sharps. Do that the more lineups I've
• 8:18
  Speaker 2: been playing. If I'm playing five or less, there's no
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: chance of playing lis Boa ten or less. Maybe not. Yeah,
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: I definitely a mute donkey here. I'll let you in
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: on the secret that Big Marley and I are laughing
• 8:29
  Speaker 2: so he cannot figure out his volume to hear me,
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: So we have him on the phone so he can
• 8:35
  Speaker 2: hear me through my phone. But I didn't realize I
• 8:37
  Speaker 2: was on mute, so me and Big Marley was the
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: only one that could hear me this whole time, and
• 8:42
  Speaker 2: then I realized that. So that's how we were both
• 8:45
  Speaker 2: laughing a little bit there. But that's been like that
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: for like a month or two months. Big Marley's got
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: to figure it out with our tech guy.
• 8:52
  Speaker 3: Yeah, but if I did one time and then it
• 8:54
  Speaker 3: went away, I don't get him.
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I'll have to get him on here.
• 8:57
  Speaker 2: Yeah, if Liz Boa scores eighty four, though she still
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: has to I would score I think two very solid
• 9:03
  Speaker 2: mid tier fights a lot Holland minus two ten to
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: finish for Vola Nelson minus two ten to finish, Like,
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: she still has to score, So like just say she
• 9:11
  Speaker 2: scores eighty five, which I think would be a really
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: good score for her as an underdog. Like what percent
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: of chance is that on the optimal.
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: For Liz Boa. Yeah, I would be interested.
• 9:22
  Speaker 3: I don't I don't know that she has that in her,
• 9:26
  Speaker 3: but I would give it just the same, maybe even
• 9:30
  Speaker 3: a little bit more because I don't love the upper
• 9:32
  Speaker 3: tier range this week, So maybe you know, like twenty
• 9:36
  Speaker 3: three to twenty eight something like that.
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: All right, Yeah, I still prefer the crowd inside. I
• 9:41
  Speaker 2: think she wins. She has taken money, so as you see,
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: like when there's an underdog on the card, usually they
• 9:46
  Speaker 2: were the underdog. When DK released pricing, she opened plus
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: two thirty five in this one, got down to like
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: minus one ten. Lisboa took some money, so crowdon was
• 9:55
  Speaker 2: enter on the plus one forty range, got down to
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: plus one oh five again, then went back up to
• 10:00
  Speaker 2: the plus one fifty. It's bounced back and forth. But
• 10:03
  Speaker 2: as the week's gone on, Croden's taken a little money.
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: I expected to close somewhere around here. I just think
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: at seventy eight hundred the six hundred savings, if both
• 10:12
  Speaker 2: girls scored seventy five in a win, Croden has a
• 10:14
  Speaker 2: lot better chance to be optimal. But by no means
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: so I love this fight. This is more of an
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: underweight fight for sure. If I hadn't neither of these girls,
• 10:23
  Speaker 2: I don't know. I'm gonna get a little Crodon for
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: the price, but I won't have much lis Boa, I
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: do not think.
• 10:29
  Speaker 3: And all of Croden's wins are finishes six finishes both
• 10:34
  Speaker 3: losses are by decision. One of them was to Jacqueline Cavalcante,
• 10:38
  Speaker 3: and she's a good fighter, so I do think she
• 10:41
  Speaker 3: has the higher ceiling with her finishing potential. But girls
• 10:44
  Speaker 3: who have never won by decision and all of their decisions,
• 10:48
  Speaker 3: I've been losses coming into the UFC.
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: I just I kind of like to.
• 10:51
  Speaker 3: Lean the other way when everyone's on that girl, so
• 10:53
  Speaker 3: or any fighter, but particularly way.
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: So give me Lisboa.
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: No, that makes sense, We'll get We'll keep it rolling.
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: I can't even talk. I'm getting so excited because this
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: fight is one of the better fights on the card
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: in my opinion. Azamat Bekov now minus three twenty taking
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: on usury Belgoria plus two seventy. This likes minus two
• 11:15
  Speaker 2: twenty five to finish. Beckoff minus won ten inside the distance,
• 11:18
  Speaker 2: which was one of the best in the slates, and
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: Belgoria plus three hundred. I'm probably butchering the name you
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: know who I'm talking about. First thing that stands out
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: to me plus two to seventy money line for Belgoria
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: plus three hundred inside the distance. Almost every win the
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: books think is by finish. The second thing that stands
• 11:36
  Speaker 2: out look at that height and reach advantage. He'll have
• 11:39
  Speaker 2: five inches in height, seven inches in reach. Like, it's
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: really clear this dude is dangerous on the feet. He's
• 11:46
  Speaker 2: really big. Beckoff a salad striker himself. Two eight wins
• 11:49
  Speaker 2: by Ko eight by submission. But why I like this
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: fight so much? Like Bekov should wrestle early and often.
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: I don't know why he wouldn't. It feels like the
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: biggest advantage for him if he doesn't, I don't think
• 12:00
  Speaker 2: either guy even looks close to minus three hundred if
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: it's on the feet. Beckuv, I think, will be one
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: of the more popular plays on the slate. Second biggest
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: money line, second biggest inside the inside the distance prop
• 12:11
  Speaker 2: and round one prop and the fourth highest price, so
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: everything checks out there. He's gonna get ownership, which makes
• 12:17
  Speaker 2: me even like Belgoria even more. Most of his wins
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: wins finishes or should be finishes according to the money
• 12:23
  Speaker 2: line inside the distance prop, and you get a lot
• 12:26
  Speaker 2: of leverage off a chalky guy, and he himself will
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: not get much ownership. So I love love this fight.
• 12:31
  Speaker 2: If I had to do one other five star fight,
• 12:34
  Speaker 2: I'm probably putting this as the five star fight. It's
• 12:37
  Speaker 2: close them a lot in the Farvola fight just because
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: I don't love the other mid tier options too much.
• 12:42
  Speaker 2: But I think this is my favorite outside of the
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: main event, like upper tier, lower tier fight on both sides,
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: and I want to get overweight on this one. How
• 12:49
  Speaker 2: do you see it? Yeah?
• 12:51
  Speaker 3: I agree, I mean, just you saying that belgory itd
• 12:56
  Speaker 3: line is the same as the money line. Made me
• 12:57
  Speaker 3: move this to a five star because I like is
• 13:01
  Speaker 3: one of, if not my favorite pay ups on the
• 13:03
  Speaker 3: card this week.
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: So both of them have big.
• 13:06
  Speaker 3: Ceilings, and I was really I was gonna change one
• 13:09
  Speaker 3: of the fights to a five star before we were done.
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: I just changed that one. But I'm also thinking I
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: might change one of.
• 13:18
  Speaker 3: The Holland fight or the Forvola fights, So once we
• 13:21
  Speaker 3: talk about those, I'm sure one of those will get
• 13:23
  Speaker 3: changed as well. But yeah, this one's gonna be a
• 13:25
  Speaker 3: good one to fight. I mean a good fight to
• 13:27
  Speaker 3: target because Bikoyev could get the knockout really in any round,
• 13:31
  Speaker 3: but if the striking's not going his way, he should
• 13:34
  Speaker 3: be looking to wrestle and he could finish the fight
• 13:36
  Speaker 3: with ground and pound on the ground. He could also
• 13:39
  Speaker 3: land a decent amount of strikes while he's on the ground,
• 13:41
  Speaker 3: and he could rack.
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: Up control time too.
• 13:45
  Speaker 3: Belgory is a tall, long, decent kickboxer, so if this
• 13:50
  Speaker 3: fight is at range, I think he would be probably
• 13:53
  Speaker 3: picking McCoy of apart and I guess, yeah, finish him
• 13:55
  Speaker 3: along the way makes sense because I just don't see
• 13:58
  Speaker 3: how it would be a fifteen minute striking match and
• 14:02
  Speaker 3: Bakoyev would just accept that and lose that way, Like
• 14:05
  Speaker 3: he's gonna have to close the distance and either land
• 14:07
  Speaker 3: a bunch of strikes on the inside knock him out,
• 14:09
  Speaker 3: or get the takedowns. So either way, I just think
• 14:11
  Speaker 3: we're gonna have a big score in this one. My
• 14:13
  Speaker 3: preferred play is the Koiev. I do think he is
• 14:16
  Speaker 3: gonna get a finish in the in the first or
• 14:18
  Speaker 3: second round and put up a big score in this one.
• 14:20
  Speaker 3: But yeah, Belgory is gonna be a good underdog to
• 14:23
  Speaker 3: target as well.
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: Seventy one hundred. He could definitely break the slate.
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I actually think he's my preferred play in this one,
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: just with the leverage he offers. With the lower tier
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: that I don't love too too much, there's definitely viable
• 14:36
  Speaker 2: options down there. But if you're telling me every single
• 14:38
  Speaker 2: underdog one on this card he has top two upside
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: in that lower tier for sure, and you get a
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: bunch of leverage. So and I think the Koiev is
• 14:46
  Speaker 2: one of the highest own fighters on the card. Again
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: the fourth highest price but the second biggest money line
• 14:51
  Speaker 2: and inside the distance and run round one prop. I
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: like it all. I like Bakoyev, I like Bulgoria. I
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: think this is a very good fight to target and
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: big Marley Di I'd say he changed it to a
• 15:01
  Speaker 2: five star. Let's go from one of the best fights
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: to target to one of the worst fights. Stephie Stephanie
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: Luciano minus two eighty Ravana Olivera plus two forty plus
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: two hundred for this fight to finish Luciano plus three
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: hundred Olivera plus five point fifty. Yeah, I mean this
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: fight is is as gross as it gets. We look
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: at the stone right here. You will see olivera one
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: significant strike permittent to takedown. She's seven and two. But
• 15:29
  Speaker 2: this is like one UFC fight and it was against
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: Liz Boa, and I mean it was really really gross.
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: Like olivera seven and two. I mean she fought uber
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: drivers half of the fights pre UFC. Like this girl
• 15:42
  Speaker 2: I don't think is very good now Luciano. She's young,
• 15:45
  Speaker 2: she's fine, she throws some volume, but at ninety three hundred,
• 15:49
  Speaker 2: this fight reminds me of Polastree of last week, except
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: I like it even worse. Like Polastrees. Inside, the distance
• 15:54
  Speaker 2: was still climbing. I think it closed like plus two
• 15:56
  Speaker 2: twenty five. I mean Luciano's minus one four to win
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: this fight by decision. I do not see her being
• 16:02
  Speaker 2: optimal if it goes to decision. Highly favored to go
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: the distance, I think it does. I think Luciano wins.
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: To be honest, if I had to pick a preferred side,
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: I'm probably picking Olivera just because you're expected fifteen minutes
• 16:14
  Speaker 2: from a sixty nine hundred dollars fighter woman's mma. Anything
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: can happen, But I do not like this fight much.
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: What about you, Nah, I'm not gonna be playing this fight.
• 16:23
  Speaker 3: I would prefer the Luciano side, though, just because she
• 16:25
  Speaker 3: will be unowned, and I do think she has a
• 16:29
  Speaker 3: big striking edge in this one and could get a
• 16:31
  Speaker 3: finish with some decent volume leading up to it. If
• 16:34
  Speaker 3: this fight stays on the feet, I think she probably
• 16:37
  Speaker 3: dominates and it could be a finish. If that's the case,
• 16:41
  Speaker 3: Olivera should be mixing in takedowns here. I mean, I
• 16:44
  Speaker 3: don't know that she's a good wrestler, though I feel
• 16:46
  Speaker 3: like she is. She has more one punch power, possibly,
• 16:50
  Speaker 3: but this is WMMA, and I'm just not expecting a
• 16:53
  Speaker 3: knockout at one hundred and fifteen pounds. And if she
• 16:56
  Speaker 3: does get takedowns, I don't think it'll it'll be very
• 16:59
  Speaker 3: many of them, and I don't think she'll be able
• 17:01
  Speaker 3: to keep top control very long. Luciano is used to
• 17:04
  Speaker 3: opponents trying to take her down, and I think she
• 17:06
  Speaker 3: will stuff most of them at least long enough to
• 17:10
  Speaker 3: win two rounds on the cards. But if she does
• 17:13
  Speaker 3: win a decision here, I just don't know how she's
• 17:15
  Speaker 3: gonna be on the OPTOMM lineup. So I'm just gonna
• 17:18
  Speaker 3: full fade the fight hope that it is extended, goes
• 17:21
  Speaker 3: to the third round, or she does win a decision.
• 17:23
  Speaker 3: But my preferred play is Luciano as just a pure
• 17:27
  Speaker 3: way to get different because that TKO is is it
• 17:31
  Speaker 3: could be available.
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's fair. Maybe I should circle. I don't know.
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: I don't like either. I had them both as underweight,
• 17:38
  Speaker 2: and I can make a case for the fact of
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: again Olivera any win at sixty nine hundreds fine ninety
• 17:44
  Speaker 2: three hundred, Luciano like minus one fifty. She wins by decision,
• 17:48
  Speaker 2: but I always like doing what you do looking at all. Right,
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: she's past three hundred inside the distance pust three hundred
• 17:54
  Speaker 2: and twenty five percent, and our projected ownership has her
• 17:57
  Speaker 2: at thirteen percent, So if she's double the likelihood to
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: get a finish, then she is owned. I can make
• 18:04
  Speaker 2: it like I'll keep her in the pool in very
• 18:06
  Speaker 2: chalky lineups when I'm playing the main event. When I'm
• 18:08
  Speaker 2: playing them a lot fight for Vola, fight the back
• 18:10
  Speaker 2: off fight, like when I'm eating all the chalk, That's
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: when i'd play her. If I'm getting different in any
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: other spot, I prefer many others in the upper tier more.
• 18:18
  Speaker 2: But it's it's fine. I mean, I want to be
• 18:21
  Speaker 2: underweight both, but both will be very low owned on
• 18:24
  Speaker 2: this card, So if I am playing either one, I
• 18:26
  Speaker 2: am definitely going to be chalky in a lot of
• 18:28
  Speaker 2: other spots, but it's not a fight I want to
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: target much of it all. I think two of the
• 18:32
  Speaker 2: worst fights on the card, Liz Boa fight and this
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: Luciano fight going to a pretty good fight. The biggest
• 18:39
  Speaker 2: favorite on the card Drew Dover minus four to fifty
• 18:42
  Speaker 2: taken on Kyle Preppolick plus three fifty, minus two hundred
• 18:45
  Speaker 2: for this fight to finish, minus won thirty five inside
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: the distance for Dover, plus five hundred for Prepelic. Looking
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: at it again, it was minus five fifty on Wednesday,
• 18:54
  Speaker 2: so a dollar of steam came in on the Preplick side. Again,
• 18:59
  Speaker 2: I did mention this card is in Canada. A lot
• 19:01
  Speaker 2: of these fighters, some of them are Canadian Prepelics, one
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: of them. I'm not going to say like all of
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: them that are from Canada. If you want to look,
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: you can go on topology. It makes it pretty easy.
• 19:10
  Speaker 2: I don't change my game plan and stuff how I'm dictating,
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: like my lineups a lot of the time, Like if
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: it goes to decision, they're already probably more than likely
• 19:19
  Speaker 2: not going to be optimal unless they're an underdog. So
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: I don't really sway my stuff depending on where it is.
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: Judge a stink wherever they go. So I wanted to
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: mention that, I mean Prepelic, he's zero and three in
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: the UFC eighteen and nine is a pro Dover. He's
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: getting up their in age, but he's the same age
• 19:35
  Speaker 2: as Prepelic. He's fought everybody in the UFC twenty fifth
• 19:38
  Speaker 2: Walk to the UFC Octagon. Drew Dover is making really
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: impressive stuff, always game, always fun. I mean he used
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: to have a steel chin. It's got cracked a little
• 19:48
  Speaker 2: bit as of late. Can Prepolic be the one to
• 19:51
  Speaker 2: crack it and break the slate as a very low
• 19:53
  Speaker 2: owned big dog.
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: I many good.
• 19:59
  Speaker 3: If Dover is cooked, Prepelic could just break the slate
• 20:03
  Speaker 3: here because that's his only chance. He's got to go
• 20:05
  Speaker 3: out there be crazy, hyped up in Canada. The only
• 20:08
  Speaker 3: reason he's getting another chance in the UFCS because his
• 20:11
  Speaker 3: fights in Canada. So he's got to go out there
• 20:14
  Speaker 3: and just try to kill Dober and maybe it'll take
• 20:17
  Speaker 3: one shot. Maybe Dober's chin is done. Uh So I
• 20:20
  Speaker 3: would want Prepelic exposure here. If I was making multiple lineups,
• 20:24
  Speaker 3: I have him as a one as a one star
• 20:26
  Speaker 3: because I'm not gonna be mmming on this card and
• 20:29
  Speaker 3: I don't think he's any good. I think Dober's just
• 20:31
  Speaker 3: levels above him everywhere. This fight goes, and I also
• 20:35
  Speaker 3: think Dober has a lot more knockout power to a.
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: Better chin historically.
• 20:42
  Speaker 3: But man, when it goes, it goes. And he's been
• 20:44
  Speaker 3: knocked out a couple times recently, and I would worry. Man,
• 20:48
  Speaker 3: I would be worried about that chin. But I think
• 20:50
  Speaker 3: Dober knocks him out, probably in the first round. I
• 20:53
  Speaker 3: think Prepelic goes for broke and it's gonna be a
• 20:56
  Speaker 3: knockout one way or the other. But give me Dober
• 20:59
  Speaker 3: to get it, and I want exposure to him for sure.
• 21:02
  Speaker 3: And if I'm making ten lineups, man, I might end
• 21:03
  Speaker 3: up changing Preplic to a two star because I don't
• 21:06
  Speaker 3: know that. I want no Prepelic with ten lineups because
• 21:10
  Speaker 3: he could just ruin your night early.
• 21:12
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: Yeah, he's not good. It's just one shot.
• 21:15
  Speaker 2: You know. I was worried you were gonna say that
• 21:16
  Speaker 2: because I'm in the same boat, like I had him
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: as a fade, But I have enough of these fighters
• 21:20
  Speaker 2: as a fade at his ownership. The leverage off of Dover,
• 21:24
  Speaker 2: I mean, he's gonna come out there swinging, and Dover
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: like welcomes those type of fights. So if that chin
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: is cooked, seeing the dollars steam on the way back.
• 21:33
  Speaker 2: I think I'm gonna I'm gonna dictate like the line
• 21:35
  Speaker 2: movement tomorrow and stuff, and then Saturday, I'm really gonna
• 21:38
  Speaker 2: watch that line, and if it keeps closing, I think
• 21:41
  Speaker 2: I might mix in a little Prepelic. If it gets
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: Dober back to the minus five hundred plus range, probably
• 21:46
  Speaker 2: I'll fade him. And I'm talking like ten o us again,
• 21:50
  Speaker 2: twenty teams. I'm fine playing all twenty six fighters. That's
• 21:54
  Speaker 2: what a lot of the pros do I like to follow.
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: To hang up on you, big Marley? No, I did? Oh?
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: Did hang up on you? All right? Now? You got me? Sorry? Yeah,
• 22:05
  Speaker 2: if if the line goes like the minus four hundred
• 22:08
  Speaker 2: range or even better, so if Prepla keeps taking money,
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: then I'm gonna get some of him. If it gets
• 22:13
  Speaker 2: back to minus five hundred over minus five fifty, I'll
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: probably fade him. Take my shot there. There's like a
• 22:19
  Speaker 2: plethora of live dogs on this carding and we talked
• 22:21
  Speaker 2: about seventy eight hundred dollars favorite, but Gooria, who I
• 22:24
  Speaker 2: like quite a bit like Santos right now, he's like
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: two dollars better on the money line. He's a lot
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: more likely to win. Bruno Silva has upside. Davey Grant
• 22:33
  Speaker 2: super Live like, we can go up and down the card.
• 22:35
  Speaker 2: I like Brendan Allen when we get there. So I'm
• 22:38
  Speaker 2: gonna dictate. I'm gonna dictate what I do with prepla
• 22:41
  Speaker 2: fased online movement. If he continues to take money, I'll
• 22:44
  Speaker 2: get some. If not, then I'll probably fade in ten
• 22:47
  Speaker 2: or less. Appreciate that takedown really close, really close, close,
• 22:53
  Speaker 2: doesn't close, doesn't cut it though, all right, let's keep
• 22:56
  Speaker 2: it rolling. Next fight on the card, Danny Barlow, left
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: handed God take on Jordan Santo's minus three hundred Barlow
• 23:04
  Speaker 2: Santos plus two to fifty minus one eighty for this
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: fight to finish, Barlow minus one ten inside the distance
• 23:10
  Speaker 2: Santos plus four hundred. I'll throw it two right away
• 23:13
  Speaker 2: on this one. Break it down.
• 23:16
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I expect a striking match in this one. Uh
• 23:20
  Speaker 3: Barlow coming off knockout loss where he was the favorite.
• 23:24
  Speaker 3: I'd say he is the better, more athletic, more dangerous
• 23:27
  Speaker 3: striker in this one, but Santos could win a striking
• 23:32
  Speaker 3: matches based on volume alone. Also expect him to be
• 23:35
  Speaker 3: the more likely wrestler of the two. So if it
• 23:39
  Speaker 3: does go the distance, I think that it could be
• 23:41
  Speaker 3: an interesting fight in Santos could be live in this one.
• 23:44
  Speaker 3: If there's a first round knockout, I would think that
• 23:47
  Speaker 3: it's Barlow knocking him out and scoring one hundred and
• 23:49
  Speaker 3: ten points that way, and I think that would be
• 23:52
  Speaker 3: the way Barlow makes it onto the optimal lineup, because
• 23:54
  Speaker 3: if this goes past the first round, it's gonna be
• 23:57
  Speaker 3: tough for him to make it without multiple knockdowns. I
• 23:59
  Speaker 3: don't ex any takedown attempts from Barlow, and he's not
• 24:03
  Speaker 3: a you know, a crazy high volume striker. He can
• 24:07
  Speaker 3: strike with volume, but he's more dangerous striker in my opinion,
• 24:11
  Speaker 3: So that's what we're hunting for with him. Would be
• 24:13
  Speaker 3: the knockout, and then any Santos win I.
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: Think would be uh.
• 24:17
  Speaker 3: We could compete with the optimal lineup. So I like
• 24:19
  Speaker 3: both sides of this one. Not even sure my preferred plants.
• 24:23
  Speaker 3: Will I have it as a three and three. You
• 24:24
  Speaker 3: could definitely get me to switch it one way or another, though.
• 24:28
  Speaker 2: All right, I need you first to mute yourself on
• 24:30
  Speaker 2: your phone. Is that what that is? Okay? Now we're good.
• 24:35
  Speaker 2: I totally agree with the Barlow. There's so many guys
• 24:37
  Speaker 2: I prefer in the upper tier because like I think
• 24:39
  Speaker 2: he is almost round one or bus for sure, round
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: two one or two, like a second round knockout will
• 24:44
  Speaker 2: be iffy. If he makes it, there probably needs at
• 24:47
  Speaker 2: least one knockdown after that. Like, there's just no wrestling
• 24:50
  Speaker 2: upside for him, where there is wrestling upside obviously for
• 24:53
  Speaker 2: dear Raider there is wrestling out upside for the back
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: off side. Other than that, though, like the upper tier
• 24:59
  Speaker 2: doesn't a too much other wrestling upside, and it's Santos
• 25:03
  Speaker 2: if he wins anything again, seventy five could be enough
• 25:06
  Speaker 2: at seven K on this card. Again, I prefer him
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: to preplick right now because he's plus two to fifty
• 25:11
  Speaker 2: preplex plus three to fifty, and he's plus four hundred
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: inside the distance is Santos in this like Barlow just
• 25:18
  Speaker 2: got knocked out by Sam Patterson back in March, five
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: months later or whatever it is, coming back after a
• 25:24
  Speaker 2: pretty brutal ko, Santos has some power in his hands
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: as well. I honestly don't love this fight too much though,
• 25:31
  Speaker 2: because I think Barlow probably wins. Because I think we
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: get a striking match, and it's hard to pick against
• 25:35
  Speaker 2: him in a pure striking match. But again, if it
• 25:38
  Speaker 2: goes past two rounds, like I think he's almost drawing
• 25:41
  Speaker 2: dead for the optimal So I do think Barlow wins,
• 25:44
  Speaker 2: but at ninety two hundred, you really have to get there,
• 25:46
  Speaker 2: and I prefer others in the upper tier. So this
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: is more of like an even with the field fight
• 25:52
  Speaker 2: for me, And if I was underweight, I'd honestly be
• 25:54
  Speaker 2: fine with it as well. Honestly don't even have a
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: preferred play. If I'm more overweight to Santos, I'm fine
• 26:00
  Speaker 2: with that. If I'm get forty percent Barlow, I will
• 26:03
  Speaker 2: manually lower that because I just I don't love fighters
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: that will like need a first round KO. In a
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: second round KO might not even be enough. I don't
• 26:12
  Speaker 2: love banking on fighters like that, especially plus what is
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: it plus or Dover was plus two thirty five in
• 26:18
  Speaker 2: round one, He's taking money Barlow's plus two seventy five
• 26:22
  Speaker 2: in round one? So what is that twenty six percent?
• 26:26
  Speaker 2: And we have his projected ownership at twenty eight percent,
• 26:29
  Speaker 2: So I guess looking at that, maybe I just want
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: to be around that twenty eight percent mark right around
• 26:34
  Speaker 2: the field about his round one prop and go about
• 26:37
  Speaker 2: it that way. Santos, He's a fine, live, live dog.
• 26:41
  Speaker 2: His ownership is definitely low, but like on my tier rankings,
• 26:44
  Speaker 2: he's not going to be near the top in terms
• 26:46
  Speaker 2: of the lower tier tiers. Like I prefer the bulgory
• 26:49
  Speaker 2: fight that we just talked about, but I do prefer
• 26:51
  Speaker 2: Santos too, prep like another dog I prefer to Santos.
• 26:56
  Speaker 2: Is this next one in Bruno Silva He's taking on
• 26:59
  Speaker 2: Hungs Park. I think this is gonna be a fun fight.
• 27:02
  Speaker 2: Minus two to ten Park plus one eighty Silva minus
• 27:04
  Speaker 2: one sixty for this fight to finish Park plus one
• 27:07
  Speaker 2: fifteen inside the distance Silva plus three fifty this fight
• 27:12
  Speaker 2: open minus one thirty to finish now minus one sixty
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: Park open plus one thirty inside the distance now plus
• 27:18
  Speaker 2: one fifteen Silva open plus four to twenty five now
• 27:22
  Speaker 2: plus three fifty. I think this is low key contender
• 27:25
  Speaker 2: for fight of the night. I think these guys are
• 27:27
  Speaker 2: gonna throw down. I think both have big time upside
• 27:30
  Speaker 2: for their price. Park at nine K, like he just
• 27:33
  Speaker 2: can't be that owned because his money line is worse
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: than some others. Again, he's gonna get some ownership. But
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: the Ritter's eighty eight hundred, Park nine k like spending
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: two hundred more. Not many, or I shouldn't say not many,
• 27:46
  Speaker 2: but it's clear as day him de Ritter Beckov They're
• 27:49
  Speaker 2: gonna be higher on in this spot, and I think
• 27:52
  Speaker 2: Hung Sung Park has just as much upside Bruno Silva's chin.
• 27:55
  Speaker 2: I'm worried about it, but if Silva wins, I think
• 27:58
  Speaker 2: it scores for seventy three hundred. He is one of
• 28:00
  Speaker 2: my favorite dogs on this card because I think it's
• 28:03
  Speaker 2: a fun, high paced fight. He can mix in his wrestling,
• 28:05
  Speaker 2: which I think it'd be really smart to do because
• 28:08
  Speaker 2: Park's got big boy power. I'm worried about that Silva
• 28:11
  Speaker 2: chin though, so I'm picking Park. But I like both
• 28:13
  Speaker 2: sides of this. I want to get overweight. This fight
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: and the back Off Fighter definitely my favorite two fights
• 28:18
  Speaker 2: that we've talked about thus far.
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I like this fight.
• 28:23
  Speaker 3: I think that either side could mix in takedowns on
• 28:26
  Speaker 3: this one. I would say that Parks a more dangerous grappler.
• 28:28
  Speaker 4: But.
• 28:30
  Speaker 3: Silva is a solid grappler himself, and the takedowns could
• 28:34
  Speaker 3: go either way. I like Park to be the quicker
• 28:37
  Speaker 3: fighter and just have you know, Land more volume throughout
• 28:43
  Speaker 3: fifteen minutes, and just do more on the scorecards. But
• 28:46
  Speaker 3: if that's going to be the case and it is
• 28:47
  Speaker 3: taking place on the feet, then we really don't want them.
• 28:49
  Speaker 3: I think that we want him to be grappling or
• 28:52
  Speaker 3: we want him to get a knockout. So I'm not
• 28:54
  Speaker 3: sure how much I love the Park side in this one.
• 28:56
  Speaker 3: I do think it could be a Fight of the
• 28:58
  Speaker 3: Night contender, and if that's the case, we do want
• 29:01
  Speaker 3: some of him. But I also think that the line's
• 29:03
  Speaker 3: a little bit wide and Silva can keep this fight
• 29:05
  Speaker 3: close wherever it goes. So I kind of lean Silva
• 29:08
  Speaker 3: as my preferred play, but that would only be if
• 29:12
  Speaker 3: I need to save the money. If I have the
• 29:15
  Speaker 3: salary for whoever, then I'd prefer Park. I do think
• 29:18
  Speaker 3: he is a little bit more dangerous everywhere has the
• 29:21
  Speaker 3: higher ceiling. At this point, it can just do more
• 29:25
  Speaker 3: minute to minute, so I would prefer Park. If salary
• 29:28
  Speaker 3: wasn't a thing, well man, I would much rather get Tomakoyev.
• 29:33
  Speaker 3: I would try to find the money to get up
• 29:36
  Speaker 3: to Doughbro because I feel better about him putting his
• 29:39
  Speaker 3: opponent away in the first round.
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: And then there's also.
• 29:42
  Speaker 3: People I think that can score more than Park. You
• 29:44
  Speaker 3: are priced under him, so I just don't know how
• 29:47
  Speaker 3: much I'm gonna get to him. And I would say
• 29:49
  Speaker 3: for me, it's closer to a three star than it
• 29:51
  Speaker 3: is a five.
• 29:52
  Speaker 2: Star, all right, and probably our first difference on this
• 29:55
  Speaker 2: card actually the first fight. You like liz bo a
• 29:58
  Speaker 2: little more, I like Croning a little more. But yeah,
• 30:00
  Speaker 2: I'd not argue like I think Bruno Silva is a
• 30:03
  Speaker 2: very good live dog in this spot. Ninety two hundred
• 30:06
  Speaker 2: or seventy two hundreds cheap for his upside the Park
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: stuff though, like I will be looking like instead of Luciano,
• 30:11
  Speaker 2: instead of fear Roh, like I will be looking build
• 30:14
  Speaker 2: a Dover team. I'll go down to Park, build a
• 30:16
  Speaker 2: Beckoff team. Just drop one hundred there. You will get
• 30:19
  Speaker 2: a pretty good ownership discount when you are doing that
• 30:23
  Speaker 2: next fight on the car. Really curious to hear your
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: take on this one, like real life, good fight, man,
• 30:29
  Speaker 2: It's close for me though. Charles Jordaane minus one seventy
• 30:31
  Speaker 2: Davy Grant plus one forty five plus one thirty for
• 30:35
  Speaker 2: this fight to finish Jordan plus two to twenty five
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: inside the distance Grant plus four hundred. So we had
• 30:41
  Speaker 2: Jordan open minus two hundred. Five hours later was minus
• 30:46
  Speaker 2: one oh eight. Line stood there for a little bit,
• 30:48
  Speaker 2: like a couple of days later he got down like
• 30:50
  Speaker 2: the minus one forty range minus one fifty, minus one sixty,
• 30:54
  Speaker 2: minus one seventy. It just slowly but surely went Jordaane.
• 30:58
  Speaker 2: But seeing him open my mind is two hundred, and
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: then went to pick them five hours later. Davy Grant's game,
• 31:05
  Speaker 2: there's no doubt about that. Never been knocked out. When
• 31:07
  Speaker 2: he loses is either by decision or submission. Jordaan a
• 31:11
  Speaker 2: primary striker. He does have sneaky grappling, but a lot
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: of the time it's like his opponents initiate the wrestling
• 31:18
  Speaker 2: or the grappling and he finds the neck. I don't
• 31:20
  Speaker 2: think Davy shoots in this one. We don't really see
• 31:23
  Speaker 2: Jordainne wrestles. You can see point three fourths or takedowns
• 31:26
  Speaker 2: per fifteen. If it's on the feat for fifteen, it's
• 31:30
  Speaker 2: hard to click. Eighty seven hundred jordayin which leads me
• 31:33
  Speaker 2: to Davy Grant being my preferred play. I think it's
• 31:36
  Speaker 2: a close fight. I think goes to decision. Jordaane is
• 31:39
  Speaker 2: the Canadian Again, I'm not really using that in my
• 31:42
  Speaker 2: process at the end of the day, but yeah, how
• 31:44
  Speaker 2: do you see this fight going? Do you see a
• 31:45
  Speaker 2: finish possibility?
• 31:49
  Speaker 3: I don't think we're going to see a finish. I
• 31:50
  Speaker 3: expect this one to go to the judges and it'll
• 31:54
  Speaker 3: be a pretty fun fight, a high pace fight on
• 31:57
  Speaker 3: the feet. I would think that Grant should mix in
• 32:01
  Speaker 3: a takedown or two throughout this fight. I would give him,
• 32:04
  Speaker 3: you know, one a one takedown prop and the volume
• 32:09
  Speaker 3: could be on the Grant side as well. I think
• 32:11
  Speaker 3: that Jordayne is more dangerous on the feet, and he's flashier.
• 32:15
  Speaker 3: It is in Canada as well. He's ten years younger,
• 32:18
  Speaker 3: but Grant thirty nine years old. He's in the prime
• 32:20
  Speaker 3: of his career and I think that he would be
• 32:23
  Speaker 3: the one leading on volume in this and I also
• 32:26
  Speaker 3: think he is the one that would land more takedowns.
• 32:29
  Speaker 3: If he can get a takedown, I think he can
• 32:31
  Speaker 3: keep top control and I don't see Jordayane submitting Grant.
• 32:35
  Speaker 3: I think Grant's more dangerous submission artist than Jordayne.
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: I'm pretty sire.
• 32:40
  Speaker 3: I've seen Grant get like a reverse triangle submission, like
• 32:43
  Speaker 3: one of the few I've seen in.
• 32:45
  Speaker 2: Against is that against the sun So when he had
• 32:47
  Speaker 2: his hands and toes in the cage, super bad. Oh
• 32:51
  Speaker 2: and he just ruined. I mean the Reugh just ruined us.
• 32:54
  Speaker 2: Ontilio was dominating that fight.
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: I mean really, oh yeah, I was.
• 32:59
  Speaker 3: I remember being pressed, im pressed, like holy shit. I
• 33:00
  Speaker 3: haven't seen one of those and forever. But I just
• 33:03
  Speaker 3: don't think that this would be the fight Jordaane pulls
• 33:05
  Speaker 3: off a submission. It'd be more likely, in my opinion,
• 33:08
  Speaker 3: a knockout if Jordaane is going to get a finish.
• 33:11
  Speaker 3: But I think this goes to a decision. I much
• 33:13
  Speaker 3: prefer the underdog really on the money line and in dfs,
• 33:17
  Speaker 3: so I'll be overweight on the Grant side and limited lineups.
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: I doubt I get to Jordaane.
• 33:23
  Speaker 2: I prefer Grant too. But for subprop so Jordaane open
• 33:26
  Speaker 2: plus nine hundred by sub now he's plus six fifty
• 33:30
  Speaker 2: by sub Davy Grant open plus two thousand by sub
• 33:34
  Speaker 2: now plus fourteen hundred by sub. So people are taking
• 33:37
  Speaker 2: both sides for the submission obviously long shots. They're like
• 33:41
  Speaker 2: both more likely to get a KO. However, plus four
• 33:44
  Speaker 2: hundred for KO for Jordaane, plus six fifty by sub
• 33:46
  Speaker 2: it's not as wide as you might think, and again
• 33:49
  Speaker 2: a lot of that. When Davy Grant loses, I believe
• 33:51
  Speaker 2: it's three losses by submission, none by knockouts. And yeah,
• 33:55
  Speaker 2: we have seen Jordaane submit people, so I wish it
• 33:58
  Speaker 2: like that. That's the stuff you really have to get
• 34:00
  Speaker 2: on early. I don't really bet on offshore books, but
• 34:03
  Speaker 2: when you see why numbers like that, I mean, you
• 34:05
  Speaker 2: don't have to hit them often at to hit plus
• 34:08
  Speaker 2: nine hundred probably not much value in the plus six
• 34:10
  Speaker 2: to fifty prop, but did find that pretty interesting. Minus
• 34:14
  Speaker 2: one sixty for this fight to go the distance, though
• 34:16
  Speaker 2: I expect that usually when that's the case, especially when
• 34:19
  Speaker 2: there's not wrestling upside for the favorite. Davy Grant is
• 34:22
  Speaker 2: my preferred play for sure. Be a great fight right here. Again,
• 34:27
  Speaker 2: we appreciate everyone hanging out like button subscribe Button helps
• 34:30
  Speaker 2: us out a ton. I always like Matt Steamroller for
• 34:33
  Speaker 2: Vola fights. Minus one twenty taken on Kyle Nelson plus
• 34:37
  Speaker 2: one hundred minus two ten for this fight to finish
• 34:40
  Speaker 2: both guys plus one sixty five inside the distance. Pretty good.
• 34:44
  Speaker 2: Round one props too for Vola plus three to fifty
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: Kyle Nelson plus four hundred. I'll be all ears for you.
• 34:51
  Speaker 2: I'm a little biased on steam Rolla and I don't
• 34:54
  Speaker 2: love Kyle Nelson most fights, but the last six fights
• 34:57
  Speaker 2: for for Vola all ended by knockout. I'm hoping this
• 35:00
  Speaker 2: fight ends by knockout. I'm gonna play it that way.
• 35:02
  Speaker 2: How do you see it going?
• 35:04
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean for Vola's last fight, it almost looked
• 35:07
  Speaker 3: like he was gassing out because he didn't get the knockout,
• 35:10
  Speaker 3: and it almost seems like that's the type.
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: Of fighter he is. Now, go go for Brooke.
• 35:14
  Speaker 3: If it doesn't work, then it's not gonna be good
• 35:17
  Speaker 3: the later this goes. And I do think for Vola
• 35:20
  Speaker 3: is the better first round striker. I think he's more
• 35:22
  Speaker 3: dangerous in the first round, but after that, I would
• 35:25
  Speaker 3: think that Kyle Nelson's more likely to win, you know,
• 35:28
  Speaker 3: the second half of this fight. It is also in Canada.
• 35:31
  Speaker 3: He's the Canadian he I would think is the better
• 35:36
  Speaker 3: fifteen minute wrestler at this point for Vola could go
• 35:39
  Speaker 3: in there in the first round and try and land takedowns.
• 35:41
  Speaker 3: I don't think that would be smart of him to do.
• 35:43
  Speaker 3: He should just try to knock off Nelson's head. But
• 35:46
  Speaker 3: this is one I'm really looking at target heavily. I
• 35:49
  Speaker 3: think this is closer to a five star, and I
• 35:51
  Speaker 3: might move it to a five star, but closer to
• 35:53
  Speaker 3: a five star than a three star. I prefer for
• 35:56
  Speaker 3: Vola a little biased as well. He actually followed me
• 35:59
  Speaker 3: on Twitter before I followed him. I love when that happens,
• 36:04
  Speaker 3: but I'm gonna be rooting for him. I think it'll
• 36:06
  Speaker 3: be a much more fun fight if he wins, But
• 36:08
  Speaker 3: if he doesn't get the first round knockout, it might
• 36:10
  Speaker 3: be a second or a third round knockout from Nelson,
• 36:12
  Speaker 3: And either way we're gonna have a big score in
• 36:16
  Speaker 3: the mid tier on pricing. So I just think that
• 36:19
  Speaker 3: the pricing almost makes you have to make this a
• 36:21
  Speaker 3: five star, right, I agree.
• 36:23
  Speaker 2: I like it's close this fighting him a lot. Holland
• 36:26
  Speaker 2: fight was close for me. I slightly prefer this fight
• 36:29
  Speaker 2: just because what you said, th like. I think it's
• 36:31
  Speaker 2: as for Vola's got up there in age, I mean
• 36:33
  Speaker 2: he came into the UFC as like a wrestler like
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: this dude was wrestling pretty heavily. He's just a fun fighter.
• 36:39
  Speaker 2: But I don't think he has the cardio for that.
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: I know he smokes a little weed. Whoa, whoa, you
• 36:44
  Speaker 2: got some ghosts going on?
• 36:45
  Speaker 3: Whoa, my computer's going out. Hold up, I'm not sure
• 36:49
  Speaker 3: what's going on. My monitors in and out.
• 36:51
  Speaker 2: Oh that's trippy. No, he's frozen. I don't know. Yeah,
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: what I was saying, for Vola smokes a little weed.
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: I know that a little myself, and I was running
• 37:06
  Speaker 2: up the stairs the NFL show run down. The cardio
• 37:08
  Speaker 2: of the lungs can get a little tough. But I mean,
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: for Vola comes out there just swinging bombs. Now, like,
• 37:14
  Speaker 2: I don't look at him really as a primary wrestler anymore,
• 37:17
  Speaker 2: and I think it would be a mistake. I echo
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: a lot of what Big Marley says. I think he
• 37:21
  Speaker 2: in round one has the advantage, more powerful. He'll bring
• 37:24
  Speaker 2: it and I think he'll knock out Kyle Nelson. But
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: if he doesn't, Kyle Nelson's by far the more steady fighter,
• 37:29
  Speaker 2: and then I think he takes over. So I'm looking
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: at it this as a live betting fight, and if
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: for Vola gases and he can't get him out of there,
• 37:37
  Speaker 2: I'll be looking to hammer Kyle Nelson pretty good. I
• 37:39
  Speaker 2: like this fight a lot, though for DFS, any for
• 37:41
  Speaker 2: Vola team easily can be Kyle Nelson. I'm gonna pick
• 37:44
  Speaker 2: for Vola since I think he has more power he
• 37:46
  Speaker 2: could do it in round one, but it's not the
• 37:49
  Speaker 2: most confident pick by any means. It's just a fight
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: I really want to target. And when you look at
• 37:53
  Speaker 2: other mid tier fights, do not like this Lisboa Conin
• 37:57
  Speaker 2: fight much. Definitely don't like this a hobby fight much.
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: Do like the Mallot fight much. So it's clearly this
• 38:02
  Speaker 2: fight and for Vola fight kind of the story of
• 38:05
  Speaker 2: this late main event malt Holland for Vola Nelson and
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: then kind of just beck off, like that's where the
• 38:12
  Speaker 2: chalk is. And if you are playing almost all of that,
• 38:14
  Speaker 2: that's when you play like a liz Boa or a
• 38:17
  Speaker 2: Luciano and get different that way. But those are clearly
• 38:20
  Speaker 2: the main fights to target on the card. I do
• 38:22
  Speaker 2: like this fight a lot. I prefer for Vola. I
• 38:25
  Speaker 2: think he has more around one upside, but I will
• 38:27
  Speaker 2: be looking to live at Kyle Nelson if he does not,
• 38:31
  Speaker 2: for Vola does not get him on out of there.
• 38:34
  Speaker 2: All right, I'll keep it rolling until Big Marley ooh,
• 38:36
  Speaker 2: right there, I think he's back. But next fight on
• 38:40
  Speaker 2: the card Cody Gibson taking on a reach you Long.
• 38:43
  Speaker 2: We got Cody Gibson minus one seventy or reach you
• 38:46
  Speaker 2: Long plus one forty five plus one twenty for this
• 38:49
  Speaker 2: fight to finish, Gibson plus two to sixty five inside
• 38:52
  Speaker 2: the distance, I'll reach you Long plus three hundred or yeah,
• 38:57
  Speaker 2: plus three hundred inside the distance. This is the one
• 38:59
  Speaker 2: I was actually really hoping to get Big Marley's thoughts.
• 39:02
  Speaker 2: Of course, the timing goes away Gibson. What I do
• 39:05
  Speaker 2: like to see in this open plus two eighty five
• 39:08
  Speaker 2: inside the distance now plus two sixty five. You see
• 39:11
  Speaker 2: both guys average a take over a takedown per fifteen.
• 39:14
  Speaker 2: Both of them are in a price where Gibson just
• 39:17
  Speaker 2: can't be owned on this card. To Ritter's two hundred
• 39:20
  Speaker 2: more people are gonna want to go like more mid
• 39:23
  Speaker 2: tier fights and then go like up top, and then
• 39:25
  Speaker 2: they'll pick one guy down below. So in chalk your lineups,
• 39:29
  Speaker 2: I will be playing a little Cody Gibson can put
• 39:31
  Speaker 2: a pace on, can try and wrestle or reach you long, though,
• 39:34
  Speaker 2: is my preferred play. I think unless Big Marley was
• 39:37
  Speaker 2: gonna talk me out of it just because he's one
• 39:39
  Speaker 2: thousand cheaper. Now, I don't love this fight much, but
• 39:42
  Speaker 2: I don't want it to ruin my nights seventy six hundred.
• 39:46
  Speaker 2: I think more than likely if he wins, it's probably
• 39:49
  Speaker 2: by decision. He's tough. Is seventy six is eighty enough
• 39:52
  Speaker 2: on this card? I don't know. It's fine. I would
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: take it. It definitely wanted my portfolio, but I just
• 39:59
  Speaker 2: don't see the the ninety five plus upside in this one.
• 40:02
  Speaker 2: I give Cody Gibson his heart, his cardio, I give
• 40:06
  Speaker 2: that enough respect, and he can mix in takedowns or
• 40:08
  Speaker 2: at least grind it against the cage. If he is
• 40:11
  Speaker 2: hurt a little bit, or I don't want to be
• 40:12
  Speaker 2: too overweight, let me fix this. Maybe he won't be
• 40:16
  Speaker 2: getting them back one sec. Wait, what'd you say? All right?
• 40:25
  Speaker 2: All right, he's trying to get back in. I definitely
• 40:29
  Speaker 2: want his take on this one to reach you along
• 40:30
  Speaker 2: in my preferred play for the one thousand savings. But
• 40:33
  Speaker 2: this fight is favor to go the distance at minus
• 40:35
  Speaker 2: one fifty, and it opened open minus one fifty and
• 40:40
  Speaker 2: then went to minus one forty five back to one fifty,
• 40:42
  Speaker 2: so not too much line moving on this, but my
• 40:45
  Speaker 2: minus one eighty for over two and a half. If
• 40:47
  Speaker 2: it does go over, I almost always prefer the one
• 40:49
  Speaker 2: k savings or reach you along my preferred play. But
• 40:52
  Speaker 2: I agree with Big Marley. This is a three star,
• 40:55
  Speaker 2: and probably i'd even almost leaned a two star over
• 40:57
  Speaker 2: a four star of having to choose, So it's not
• 41:00
  Speaker 2: fight I want too much exposure to. When Big Marley
• 41:03
  Speaker 2: gets back, though, I will get his take on that one,
• 41:05
  Speaker 2: because that was the one of all these fights on
• 41:07
  Speaker 2: the card, the one I've been most indifferent to all week.
• 41:11
  Speaker 2: This fight mine, all right, sounds good, all right, you're good.
• 41:17
  Speaker 2: He's restarting his computer. He'll be back and we'll play
• 41:19
  Speaker 2: catch up on those certain fights. The next fight mine
• 41:22
  Speaker 2: for man own Phiro taken on Jasmine Jazz Visius minus
• 41:25
  Speaker 2: two twenty five Firou plus one ninety Jasmine plus two
• 41:29
  Speaker 2: seventy for this fight plus two seventy five for this
• 41:31
  Speaker 2: fight to finish Fierroau plus four hundred inside the distance
• 41:35
  Speaker 2: Jasmine plus six hundred. This one's really easy for me,
• 41:38
  Speaker 2: Like we get a striker versus wrestler matchup, but the
• 41:42
  Speaker 2: striker sixteen hundred dollars more coming off a title loss
• 41:46
  Speaker 2: to Valentina. I think Firo is a very good fighter easily.
• 41:49
  Speaker 2: I mean she should be favored her path to win
• 41:52
  Speaker 2: this fight though, keep it at distance, bounce around the cage,
• 41:55
  Speaker 2: and just out point Jasmine. She needs the stuff takedowns.
• 41:59
  Speaker 2: Jasmine primary wrestler avages two point sixty one takedowns per
• 42:03
  Speaker 2: fifteen minutes. At seventy three hundred. It's clearly dog or
• 42:07
  Speaker 2: pass for me in this one. If she gets takedowns,
• 42:09
  Speaker 2: her top control is good and she will just keep
• 42:12
  Speaker 2: trying to chain takedowns or stay on the back. And
• 42:15
  Speaker 2: her striking has improved every single fight, So I definitely
• 42:18
  Speaker 2: she's out Masks on the feet, but I don't think
• 42:20
  Speaker 2: she's getting knocked out in this one by any means.
• 42:23
  Speaker 2: Fierro I think is one of the worst plays on
• 42:25
  Speaker 2: the slate at eighty nine hundred. I think Jasmine's a
• 42:27
  Speaker 2: very live dog. Like I prefer her to Olivera. I
• 42:32
  Speaker 2: prefer her to prepolic. I prefer her to Santos. There
• 42:35
  Speaker 2: is ninety point upside in this one if she just
• 42:38
  Speaker 2: gets a takedown around and Fierro doesn't have answers. Again,
• 42:42
  Speaker 2: Firo has showed solid takedown defense in most fights. Valentine
• 42:46
  Speaker 2: is a different beast, but Jasmine seventy three hundred primary wrestler,
• 42:51
  Speaker 2: easy dog or pass for me in this one. I
• 42:53
  Speaker 2: will not be playing any Firo in ten teams or less.
• 42:56
  Speaker 2: Twenty teams are less. I mean, I really don't like it.
• 43:00
  Speaker 2: Last four hundred inside the distance is not very good.
• 43:02
  Speaker 2: I would rather play probably Luciano. I'd probably rather play actually,
• 43:08
  Speaker 2: even though she's a little more expensive in the upper tier.
• 43:10
  Speaker 2: If I was getting different, definitely would rather play Park
• 43:13
  Speaker 2: to get a little different there as well. But yeah,
• 43:15
  Speaker 2: just build a Fiuro team, drop down and play the
• 43:19
  Speaker 2: mid tier the forvolas the malots. I don't know about
• 43:24
  Speaker 2: Cody Gibson. I still want Big Marley's take there. Jasmine,
• 43:27
  Speaker 2: good play, Firo a bad play in my opinion. Next fight,
• 43:31
  Speaker 2: another fight that I do not like at all. Aman's
• 43:33
  Speaker 2: a hobby minus one thirty five. Marlin cheeto Vera plus
• 43:37
  Speaker 2: one fifteen This fights minus three hundred to go the distance,
• 43:40
  Speaker 2: Cheeto Vera plus three twenty five. Inside the distance the
• 43:43
  Speaker 2: Hobby plus six hundred. Every Cheeto fight, he always takes
• 43:47
  Speaker 2: round one off. He gets better as the fight goes.
• 43:50
  Speaker 2: You just can't do that in fifteen minute fights. The
• 43:54
  Speaker 2: Hobby's been on a roll, but he's just look at
• 43:56
  Speaker 2: his four point four to two significant strikes per minute.
• 43:58
  Speaker 2: Four point twenty seven for Cheeto, no takedown upside on
• 44:02
  Speaker 2: either side, minus three hundred for this fight to go
• 44:05
  Speaker 2: the distance, minus three thirty five for over two and
• 44:07
  Speaker 2: a half. This is the worst fight on the card.
• 44:10
  Speaker 2: If I'd have one one star fight, I don't blame
• 44:13
  Speaker 2: Big Marley at all. I would have this as a
• 44:14
  Speaker 2: one star too, but I would have the Hobby Cheeto
• 44:17
  Speaker 2: Vera at one star. I will have none of this
• 44:19
  Speaker 2: fight in twenty and below. If I picked a side,
• 44:22
  Speaker 2: it'd be Cheeto. He actually has really big power and
• 44:25
  Speaker 2: he's seventy seven hundred, But I think the Hobby just
• 44:28
  Speaker 2: outpoints him at the end of the day. I'm not
• 44:30
  Speaker 2: I'm not going against his streak right now. The Hometown
• 44:34
  Speaker 2: guy as well. I just think he's the more technical,
• 44:36
  Speaker 2: better striker. He stays safe and he out points Cheeto
• 44:39
  Speaker 2: to a sixty four point DK decision, which we do
• 44:42
  Speaker 2: not want any bit of. So not a fight I
• 44:45
  Speaker 2: want at all. Next fight on the card comain event time,
• 44:50
  Speaker 2: we have Mike Malott and Kevin Holland straight pick him
• 44:53
  Speaker 2: minus one ten apiece on bet online minus two ten
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: for this fight to finish, Lot plus one sixty inside
• 44:59
  Speaker 2: the distance Holland plus one seventy. A lot of these
• 45:03
  Speaker 2: props are very similar for this, so Holland plus three
• 45:06
  Speaker 2: fifty by KO plus five hundred by sub, a lot
• 45:09
  Speaker 2: plus four to fifty by KO plus three to fifty
• 45:12
  Speaker 2: by sub. Another fight I've been going back and forth
• 45:15
  Speaker 2: on and I won't have a strong lean in dfs.
• 45:18
  Speaker 2: This is why I always preach, like mmme over single entry.
• 45:21
  Speaker 2: There's one dollar stuff, three dollars stuff obviously the eighteen
• 45:25
  Speaker 2: or whatever it is each week, Like instead of playing
• 45:28
  Speaker 2: a twelve dollars single entry, I play twelve teams in
• 45:30
  Speaker 2: the one dollar There might be fifty cent too. I'm
• 45:33
  Speaker 2: not allowed to get in those contests, but twenty five
• 45:35
  Speaker 2: cent dying contests like, I would always rather play a
• 45:39
  Speaker 2: lot of teams. It can be for a lot less
• 45:41
  Speaker 2: money than I would be one single entry, and it's
• 45:44
  Speaker 2: for fights like this, like it probably scores well, just
• 45:47
  Speaker 2: like the Vervola Nelson fight. Same inside, the distance, props,
• 45:51
  Speaker 2: pretty much same finishing, all of that. It's just if
• 45:54
  Speaker 2: you pick the wrong side on a coin flip fight,
• 45:56
  Speaker 2: you're drawing dead to win. So I want pretty even
• 45:59
  Speaker 2: exposure and I've gone back and forth like everything's telling
• 46:02
  Speaker 2: me Kevin Holland should win this fight. I think the
• 46:04
  Speaker 2: biggest advantage is Kevin Holland's speed on the feet. He
• 46:08
  Speaker 2: also eight inches in reach, two inches in heights on
• 46:12
  Speaker 2: the feet, he should pop the jab, the overhand right
• 46:15
  Speaker 2: should be there. I think his just speed advantage is
• 46:17
  Speaker 2: way better. However, he has negative fight IQ. One of
• 46:20
  Speaker 2: the most tilting fighters. When you back him, like the
• 46:23
  Speaker 2: WonderBoy fight back in the day, Hoop won't ship that
• 46:26
  Speaker 2: one he had wonder Boy. Kevin Holland gets a takedown
• 46:28
  Speaker 2: when he's getting pieced up on the feet, he lets
• 46:31
  Speaker 2: him up. He could even get to round five in
• 46:34
  Speaker 2: that he broke his hand, but he was getting absolutely
• 46:36
  Speaker 2: dominated by wonder Boy. Again, why would you let him
• 46:40
  Speaker 2: up against a primary striker when you have him on
• 46:43
  Speaker 2: the mat where you want him. That's just what Kevin
• 46:45
  Speaker 2: Holland does. He's there to put on a show. He's
• 46:47
  Speaker 2: a fun fighter. We'm a lot in front of his
• 46:49
  Speaker 2: hometown crowd. I think he tries to wrestle early and often.
• 46:52
  Speaker 2: It'd be smart. Kevin Holland can be stuck on his back.
• 46:56
  Speaker 2: So I've gone back and forth. Big Marley obviously looks
• 46:59
  Speaker 2: like his picking a lot. I don't blame him. If
• 47:02
  Speaker 2: Holland fights smart and uses his speed and keeps it
• 47:05
  Speaker 2: on the feet, I think he wins this fight. He
• 47:07
  Speaker 2: gets a knockout. It's just really hard to bank on
• 47:10
  Speaker 2: Kevin Holland fighting smart. I'll throw it to you right
• 47:12
  Speaker 2: in this one. Holland malt all.
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: Right, can you hear me?
• 47:15
  Speaker 2: It got you all right?
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: Good? Oh man? That was rough? All right.
• 47:20
  Speaker 3: I do like Holland here, I mean, sorry a lot here.
• 47:22
  Speaker 3: I just think he is the one that is more
• 47:25
  Speaker 3: up and coming at this point, he's more dangerous. I
• 47:28
  Speaker 3: think he has more to fight for where I just
• 47:30
  Speaker 3: don't trust Holland's gonna come in trying to kill my lot.
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: I also.
• 47:37
  Speaker 3: Don't know that I trust my lot in a three
• 47:40
  Speaker 3: round decision. Maybe I trust Holland a little bit more there,
• 47:43
  Speaker 3: But I just don't know what kind of fight we're
• 47:45
  Speaker 3: gonna see here. Is it going to be a more
• 47:47
  Speaker 3: tame fight or is Malt gonna try and kill him
• 47:51
  Speaker 3: and then that's gonna bring it in or bring it
• 47:53
  Speaker 3: out of Holland as well. I'm not sure on this one,
• 47:55
  Speaker 3: but I think that it could be a three star.
• 47:58
  Speaker 3: It could also be a five star. So my I
• 47:59
  Speaker 3: prefer play right now is going to be a Lot
• 48:02
  Speaker 3: based on the finishing potential. I do expect him to
• 48:06
  Speaker 3: be a little bit higher owned as well, and if
• 48:08
  Speaker 3: the line moves either way, I do think that would
• 48:10
  Speaker 3: change ownership.
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: But I was trying to get my stuff up.
• 48:13
  Speaker 3: Who are you picking in this one?
• 48:16
  Speaker 2: I was really going back and forth. I'm picking Holland
• 48:19
  Speaker 2: and I hate doing it, but I just think the
• 48:21
  Speaker 2: speed advantage on the feet for Holland, I'm trusting a
• 48:25
  Speaker 2: fighter that again has no IQ, but I think the
• 48:27
  Speaker 2: biggest advantage. Like both guys are good submission guys, A
• 48:30
  Speaker 2: Lot is the better wrestler more likely to spend time
• 48:32
  Speaker 2: on top, which I'm worried about, but when it's on
• 48:35
  Speaker 2: the feet like that reach advantage, the speed advantage, I
• 48:38
  Speaker 2: think the power advantage. I just think the speed is
• 48:41
  Speaker 2: going to be too much. But I have zero confidence
• 48:44
  Speaker 2: in that, because how do you ever have confidence? And
• 48:46
  Speaker 2: Kevin Holland at the end of the day, I do
• 48:49
  Speaker 2: like I think now that we talked through it, I
• 48:51
  Speaker 2: like I prefer for Vola and Nelson fight over this
• 48:54
  Speaker 2: one because I just feel more confident for Vola is
• 48:56
  Speaker 2: just going to come out there and be for Vola
• 48:58
  Speaker 2: and gas faster, Whereas again, like you just you never
• 49:02
  Speaker 2: know what you getting Kevin Holland fights, and I think
• 49:04
  Speaker 2: this one's more likely to be pitter patter, and I
• 49:07
  Speaker 2: don't see that happening. But I think if one of
• 49:09
  Speaker 2: the fights were to go to the distance and be
• 49:12
  Speaker 2: boring on the feet, I could see these two just
• 49:13
  Speaker 2: exchanging at range.
• 49:15
  Speaker 3: Yeah yeah, same as well. And then I did hear
• 49:18
  Speaker 3: you talking on the Gibson fight idea?
• 49:20
  Speaker 2: He told me that one.
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: I do think he is.
• 49:22
  Speaker 3: A solid side because the lie when I was doing
• 49:25
  Speaker 3: this fight, it was almost a pick him fight. He
• 49:27
  Speaker 3: was a super slight favorite. But if he is gonna
• 49:32
  Speaker 3: win and win like the odds are indicating that he should, that,
• 49:35
  Speaker 3: I think it's gonna be a higher paced wrestling heavy
• 49:39
  Speaker 3: type of fight, because that's where his big edge would be.
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: If this is a.
• 49:43
  Speaker 3: Striking match, I think that a Richie Lang would be
• 49:47
  Speaker 3: the better fighter and this one, and the more dangerous
• 49:49
  Speaker 3: striker too. So I would want to reach e Lang
• 49:52
  Speaker 3: in a striking match based on his knockout potential. And
• 49:55
  Speaker 3: if he does win a striking match, he could score
• 49:58
  Speaker 3: around seventy and or seventy five and compete. But if
• 50:01
  Speaker 3: there's one hundred point decision in this fight, it's the
• 50:06
  Speaker 3: Gibson side for sure, and he could also get a
• 50:08
  Speaker 3: submission in any round. So Gibson is my preferred side
• 50:12
  Speaker 3: in that one. I'm picking him to win. I think
• 50:14
  Speaker 3: he has a pretty high ceiling and he could fight
• 50:17
  Speaker 3: at a high pace, which is what we want for sure,
• 50:19
  Speaker 3: especially because they come out with the prices after the
• 50:22
  Speaker 3: line shifted. It would have been nicer if we got
• 50:24
  Speaker 3: him at the mid range. And then on the next one.
• 50:28
  Speaker 3: I'm not gonna play any man in Fiorro. She's our
• 50:31
  Speaker 3: striker here, the better striker, but I don't think she's
• 50:33
  Speaker 3: gonna get a knockout, and at eighty nine hundred it's
• 50:36
  Speaker 3: kind of what we're gonna need. She can land in
• 50:39
  Speaker 3: takedowns like in other fights, but she's not gonna want
• 50:42
  Speaker 3: to take down Jasmine Jazz Zudavicious. JJ's gonna be the
• 50:46
  Speaker 3: much better wrestler, the better grappler, And if JJ wins
• 50:50
  Speaker 3: this fight, she could look like she should have been
• 50:52
  Speaker 3: a minus four hundred favorite.
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: So I will play JJ. I just don't think she wins.
• 50:56
  Speaker 3: I think the Euro beats her in a striking match
• 50:58
  Speaker 3: and just doesn't score enough. So that's why it's a
• 51:01
  Speaker 3: two star. It's a complete fade for me on the Fiora,
• 51:03
  Speaker 3: but I am interested in the underdog that I'm picking
• 51:06
  Speaker 3: to lose. Uh yeah, And then the next one you met,
• 51:10
  Speaker 3: you said one star. I think a one star is
• 51:11
  Speaker 3: completely fine. I put it as a two star because
• 51:14
  Speaker 3: I'm picking Vera to win a close fight, and if
• 51:17
  Speaker 3: it is a high volume fight, then he could compete
• 51:20
  Speaker 3: at seventy seven hundred so Vera or passing that one.
• 51:24
  Speaker 2: For me, what's high volume.
• 51:27
  Speaker 3: Like the the Vera pedro munos kind of thing where
• 51:31
  Speaker 3: they're not fighting at range that are more up close,
• 51:33
  Speaker 3: just going back and forth, and Vera lands one hundred
• 51:37
  Speaker 3: and twenty strikes one hundred and forty strikes something like that.
• 51:40
  Speaker 3: I don't know, I doubt that's the case against the hobby.
• 51:43
  Speaker 2: Hobby that so boring, He's so.
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: Yeah, the hobby is the problem.
• 51:50
  Speaker 3: Really, I'm never interested in the hobby fights and and
• 51:53
  Speaker 3: Vera's fallen off in my opinion, but still for me
• 51:56
  Speaker 3: it's Vera pass.
• 51:57
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I prefer Vera for sure choosing I think I'm
• 52:00
  Speaker 2: is gonna fade that fight. I was in locks up
• 52:02
  Speaker 2: with you for fi. Oh, I really wanted your Gibson
• 52:04
  Speaker 2: and reach you long take. He probably talked me in
• 52:06
  Speaker 2: a little more Gibson than that I was gonna have.
• 52:08
  Speaker 2: But yeah, like he wants to wrestle, he can push
• 52:10
  Speaker 2: a pace, he has good cardio. I totally agree with
• 52:13
  Speaker 2: all of that, and his ownership will be in check,
• 52:15
  Speaker 2: so to be honest, actually not that like I prefer
• 52:18
  Speaker 2: Gibson over Jordaan, but the stuff of like build build
• 52:24
  Speaker 2: a Barlow team and go to Cody Gibson, Like that's
• 52:27
  Speaker 2: something I'm totally fine doing on this card because like
• 52:29
  Speaker 2: if both went to decision, like Cody Gibsons the way
• 52:32
  Speaker 2: higher ceiling. A lot of higher tier guys this week
• 52:37
  Speaker 2: outside of Beckov, like they're primary strikers. Dover is not
• 52:40
  Speaker 2: gonna really wrestle, Luciano's not really gonna wrestle, Barlow's not
• 52:42
  Speaker 2: really gonna wrestle. You weren't even sure how much Park's
• 52:45
  Speaker 2: gonna wrestle. So like, if Gibson wins, I mean through
• 52:49
  Speaker 2: wrestling that can get there in a lot of different ways.
• 52:51
  Speaker 2: So yeah, and I'm gonna play some Richo long to
• 52:53
  Speaker 2: it seventy six hundred. I do think Gibson does push
• 52:56
  Speaker 2: a pace. Seventy six hundred, seventy eight could be enough.
• 52:59
  Speaker 2: So I like this fight more than I initially did.
• 53:02
  Speaker 2: That was the one. The timing was awful, the one
• 53:04
  Speaker 2: fight on the card. I really needed your take, but
• 53:06
  Speaker 2: I'm happy you came back and you gave it to us.
• 53:09
  Speaker 3: I thought my computer was dead dead. I was like,
• 53:10
  Speaker 3: oh no, dude, what a time.
• 53:12
  Speaker 2: It was tripping for sure. I didn't know what was
• 53:14
  Speaker 2: going on. All right, we got the main event time again,
• 53:18
  Speaker 2: Big Marley's back. Appreciate everyone hanging through the technical difficulties.
• 53:22
  Speaker 2: You don't have to hear my voice console anymore again.
• 53:24
  Speaker 2: Like button helps us out a ton subscribe button and
• 53:27
  Speaker 2: if you want to join us five days for nineteen
• 53:29
  Speaker 2: Bucks using the code chip nineteen. Best time of the year,
• 53:32
  Speaker 2: so many sports going on. Hey, NBA will be back
• 53:35
  Speaker 2: next Tuesday. Very excited for that main event. Time another fight.
• 53:39
  Speaker 2: I'm really curious to hear your take. Good fight, Renee
• 53:43
  Speaker 2: the Ridder minus two twenty Brendan Allen plus one eighty
• 53:46
  Speaker 2: five minus two sixty for this fight to finish the
• 53:49
  Speaker 2: Ridder minus one zero five inside the distance Alan plus
• 53:52
  Speaker 2: two fifty five. How do you see it going? And
• 53:55
  Speaker 2: then are you going to lock this fight?
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: No, I'm not gonna lock it.
• 54:01
  Speaker 3: I actually was thinking about putting it as a four
• 54:03
  Speaker 3: I was gonna have it as a four star. I
• 54:05
  Speaker 3: put it as a five star because I wasn't sure
• 54:08
  Speaker 3: what to move as a five star, so I just was.
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: Like, main event, gotta do it there.
• 54:14
  Speaker 3: But no, I think that this could take place on
• 54:16
  Speaker 3: the feet way more than we wanted to. Uh, these
• 54:20
  Speaker 3: guys we're training partners, are our training partners. I don't
• 54:23
  Speaker 3: know that they're gonna go in there and try and
• 54:25
  Speaker 3: kill each other if they're if they're buddies, and I
• 54:30
  Speaker 3: kind of hear a little bit of that, and I
• 54:33
  Speaker 3: don't really know the whole backstory either, But I just
• 54:35
  Speaker 3: think that that could turn into a more of a
• 54:38
  Speaker 3: just a hard sparring match, and that would be terrible
• 54:41
  Speaker 3: for DFS. And if RDR wins a striking match, that's
• 54:47
  Speaker 3: how he's off the optimal lineup. And I don't know
• 54:49
  Speaker 3: how if he's a good enough wrestler grappler to go
• 54:53
  Speaker 3: out there.
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: And really dominate Brendan Allen.
• 54:55
  Speaker 3: Brendan Allen's really freaking good on the ground, so I
• 54:57
  Speaker 3: don't think that r DR shoots unless it's not going
• 55:00
  Speaker 3: well for him on the feet. I do think that
• 55:03
  Speaker 3: Allen would be the one to look to wrestle early
• 55:05
  Speaker 3: in the fight, but I don't think he has twenty
• 55:08
  Speaker 3: five minutes of wrestling in him, So I just think
• 55:11
  Speaker 3: it's gonna end up taking place on the feet way
• 55:13
  Speaker 3: more than we want, and I don't think we're going
• 55:15
  Speaker 3: to get a knockout, So I'm thinking it goes to
• 55:17
  Speaker 3: a decision and it takes place twenty minutes on the feet,
• 55:24
  Speaker 3: and they're not going to be high volume strikers. So
• 55:27
  Speaker 3: I kind of want to get away from this fight
• 55:29
  Speaker 3: just based on it being high owned and maybe i'm
• 55:33
  Speaker 3: picking already are to win, But if he wins and
• 55:36
  Speaker 3: he scores eighty points. He's probably not on the optical lineup,
• 55:40
  Speaker 3: but I think that's somewhat in place. So I might
• 55:42
  Speaker 3: end up moving this down to a four star now
• 55:45
  Speaker 3: that I've put another five star or two on there,
• 55:49
  Speaker 3: because now that we've talked about it, I like the
• 55:51
  Speaker 3: mccoyl fight more and I like the Frivola fight more.
• 55:54
  Speaker 3: So I would even rather go down to Forravola from
• 55:59
  Speaker 3: already all get half of the ownership and maybe more points,
• 56:06
  Speaker 3: and leaving that salary makes you different as well. So yeah,
• 56:08
  Speaker 3: the more the more I talk about it, the more
• 56:10
  Speaker 3: the less I like it because I expect to strike
• 56:13
  Speaker 3: in that year.
• 56:14
  Speaker 2: And I mean, we just saw last week fights that
• 56:16
  Speaker 2: seemed like muss has Charles Olivera wasn't on the winner
• 56:19
  Speaker 2: last week. I think he scored ninety three. Again, each
• 56:22
  Speaker 2: card's independent to each other. You need other big scores.
• 56:26
  Speaker 2: You did mention that though, I mean we said, like,
• 56:27
  Speaker 2: what a third round submission or something like that, it
• 56:29
  Speaker 2: was possible. No, I gotta ask you this. You're under Ridder,
• 56:33
  Speaker 2: but you think it takes place on the feat more so,
• 56:36
  Speaker 2: you think the Ridder is a better striker than Brendan
• 56:38
  Speaker 2: Allen I.
• 56:39
  Speaker 3: Would say a better five round I would trust him
• 56:42
  Speaker 3: more Over, I just don't really like Allen after the
• 56:44
  Speaker 3: second round and in a five round fight. If I
• 56:47
  Speaker 3: don't like him in a three round fight, I'm not
• 56:48
  Speaker 3: gonna like him that much in a five round fight.
• 56:52
  Speaker 3: But that is recency biased too. I picked him against
• 56:56
  Speaker 3: Imovov and it looked great for me, and then then
• 56:59
  Speaker 3: it went back. But so maybe it is a little
• 57:03
  Speaker 3: bit of recently bias. He is training for a five
• 57:05
  Speaker 3: round fight here, so if he's not shooting for takedowns early,
• 57:09
  Speaker 3: then I think he would be fine. In a five
• 57:11
  Speaker 3: round striking matchup. Maybe he would be okay, but the
• 57:14
  Speaker 3: wrestling is what I think will wear him down and
• 57:16
  Speaker 3: he would be the one I think does shoot in
• 57:18
  Speaker 3: this fight.
• 57:20
  Speaker 2: That's interesting Brennan Allen, because Brennan Allen was like, He's like,
• 57:23
  Speaker 2: I promise to Ritter is gonna shoot in the first
• 57:25
  Speaker 2: thirty seconds or the first minute, Like he's real confident
• 57:28
  Speaker 2: that he's not gonna be able to stand with them,
• 57:30
  Speaker 2: and I'm picking Brendan Allen. I think, now take that
• 57:33
  Speaker 2: with a grain of salt. I xed out the Ritter.
• 57:35
  Speaker 2: A lot of that head do with ownership against Bo Nickel,
• 57:38
  Speaker 2: But I haven't been on the to Rittter stuff nearly
• 57:40
  Speaker 2: as much. The GM three fight just threw me out.
• 57:42
  Speaker 2: Like GM three was outstriking to Ritter. It seemed like
• 57:45
  Speaker 2: that was the grossest go If you go back and
• 57:48
  Speaker 2: watch the GM three to Rittter fight and you look
• 57:50
  Speaker 2: at this minus two twenty line against Brennan Allen, like
• 57:53
  Speaker 2: I just I can't comprehend it. Now, every fights again,
• 57:57
  Speaker 2: some fighters have bad days. He's still found a way
• 57:59
  Speaker 2: to win. And he's definitely a weight bully. He's very big.
• 58:02
  Speaker 2: I one hundred percent agree the cardial. The longer this
• 58:05
  Speaker 2: fight goes, the better, Like the Ritter has a chance,
• 58:08
  Speaker 2: like he keeps walking forward. But I just don't see
• 58:11
  Speaker 2: like how he can be minus two twenty. I think
• 58:13
  Speaker 2: Brennan Allen's the better striker. I think he's the more
• 58:15
  Speaker 2: dangerous striker. I think on the mat, sure, maybe de
• 58:18
  Speaker 2: Ritter is better top control, but I'm not even sure.
• 58:21
  Speaker 2: Like Brennan Allen's a really good grappler. He can wrestle.
• 58:24
  Speaker 2: I do worry about the twenty five minutes. I agree,
• 58:27
  Speaker 2: but the fight's minus two sixty to finish over or
• 58:30
  Speaker 2: under three and a half's favored at minus one thirty five.
• 58:34
  Speaker 2: Like all of this just doesn't it doesn't make sense
• 58:36
  Speaker 2: to me. I'm gonna I'm gonna have more Brennan Allen
• 58:39
  Speaker 2: to the field than I will Deriddter. The price difference
• 58:42
  Speaker 2: fourteen hundred. It allows you to save more money. Again,
• 58:45
  Speaker 2: De Rittter has burned me a lot. I'm not gonna
• 58:46
  Speaker 2: fade him by any means, like I'm gonna play some.
• 58:48
  Speaker 2: But I like Brennan Allen in this fight. I got
• 58:51
  Speaker 2: him by Ko Dave, you got it by Sub. I
• 58:53
  Speaker 2: don't hate that at all. Maybe a club and Sub.
• 58:56
  Speaker 2: I just think, I mean, Brennan Allen's really confident that
• 58:59
  Speaker 2: the Ritter is gonna shoot, and I agree. I think
• 59:01
  Speaker 2: the leg kicks will be money. And I just can't
• 59:03
  Speaker 2: get the GM three to Ridder fight out of my head,
• 59:05
  Speaker 2: like if GM three is starting to piece up a bit.
• 59:08
  Speaker 2: I but again, the Ridder's proved me wrong. There's no
• 59:12
  Speaker 2: I'm not trying to argue that I wanted Fluffy against
• 59:14
  Speaker 2: the Ridder. I mean I would have been on Fluffy.
• 59:17
  Speaker 2: There's no doubt about that. Fluffy's the man. I mean,
• 59:21
  Speaker 2: Brendan Allen Fluffy like, look how that round one went.
• 59:24
  Speaker 2: I mean, Brennan Allen looked like a million bucks. Fluffy
• 59:26
  Speaker 2: had to dig deep and do it.
• 59:27
  Speaker 1: So yeah, the.
• 59:28
  Speaker 2: Short note is kind of for Allan. The longer the
• 59:31
  Speaker 2: fight goes, maybe another live betting spot. I'm more overweight
• 59:34
  Speaker 2: to Allen to the field, but if we start to
• 59:36
  Speaker 2: see him fade, maybe that's when I hit to Ritdter
• 59:39
  Speaker 2: and you might get some plus money. So yeah, I'm
• 59:41
  Speaker 2: on the dog here and Brendan Allen, I think you
• 59:44
  Speaker 2: talked me into for sure not locking it though, and
• 59:46
  Speaker 2: maybe even slightly maybe underweight to Ridder overweight Allen and
• 59:51
  Speaker 2: then right around the field fight fade. You definitely scared
• 59:53
  Speaker 2: me that it mainly takes on the feet, and it
• 59:55
  Speaker 2: very well could because I think Allan will dictate kind
• 59:58
  Speaker 2: of where this fight goes, and he was very confident
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 2: in that when he was talking. So yeah, any final
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 2: final thoughts on that or on the whole card, No.
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 3: I mean hopefully I am able to to watch it.
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 3: I don't know what mine in the wife's plan is,
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 3: but if I could have a sweat, you know.
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 1: Near the beach, that that would be sick.
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 3: But I might just start it out, see how it goes,
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 3: and if I have a sweat, I watch it. If
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 3: I don't, I go enjoy the beach. But hopefully it's
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 3: a fun one. Hopefully it's a profitable one. Good luck
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 3: to you title, good luck to everybody listening. Sorry for
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 3: the technical difficulties, but let's ship it this weekend.
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 2: Hey, where are you going? If you don't mind, I
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 2: think I think it's big enough where you won't get
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 2: some some random trying to show up. You don't have
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 2: to say exactly where you're going if you don't want.
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 1: I'm going to Fort Lauderdale.
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 2: Nice. That's awesome. Right right near I was born Hollywood, Florida.
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 2: Jo de Magio hospitals. Here, you're right right near where
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 2: I didn't grow up. I moved very young. But that's awesome.
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 2: You enjoyed it with the wife? Yeah, I mean, hey,
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 2: the wife will appreciate probably if you put the phone
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 2: down and if you're at a bar watching that's how
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 2: you do it. If you got a sweat, she'll understand.
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 2: But enjoy the weekend with the wife to get away,
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 2: that is always very nice. Appreciate everyone hanging out. That'll
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 2: do it for us to get projections ownership. All content
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 2: will be up tomorrow like always, like button subscribe button
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 2: on the way out helps us out a ton. You
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 2: are welcome. Appreciate all you guys. They big drags ysn
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 2: car me. All of you. You guys make this show fun.
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 2: Hey comment, I want to hear the main event take
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 2: down below two Alander Ritter, that's a fight, and two
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 2: of them Alander Ritter and Melot Howland. Those two, I'm
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 2: very curious to hear where you guys are at on
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 2: the field, so that'll do it for us. Appreciate everyone
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 2: hanging out for Big Marley. I'm titled n be safe,
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 2: good luck, peace, her.
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 4: NSTI han bus still hand bass and then still hants