Latest / AG Bull / AG Squawk AM 7/23/2026 | Overnight Grain Rally Update

Transcript

AG Squawk AM 7/23/2026 | Overnight Grain Rally Update · AG Bull

• 0:09
  SPEAKER_00: Good morning and welcome back to Ag Squawk AM.
• 0:11
  SPEAKER_00: Jed Sidwell here.
• 0:13
  SPEAKER_00: I'm live from Gill, Colorado this morning.
• 0:16
  SPEAKER_00: This today we're gonna talk about this overnight rally that we keep on seeing in grains.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_00: And if you haven't paid attention to the stock market, I highly recommend that you give it a peek.
• 0:26
  SPEAKER_00: We'll get to all of that here in a bit.
• 0:38
  SPEAKER_00: Looking at the livestock market and where it closed yesterday, live cattle had a pretty stout down day, but not as stout as the feeders.
• 0:45
  SPEAKER_00: August closed at 223.20, down three dollars and forty-eight cents.
• 0:50
  SPEAKER_00: Feeder cattle, they were down almost 10 bucks at one point, would have hit old limits.
• 0:57
  SPEAKER_00: Feeder cattle closed at 341.18 cents, down$8.38.
• 1:03
  SPEAKER_00: Lean hogs were mostly unchanged across the board, essentially closing where they were yesterday at 101.45 cents.
• 1:11
  SPEAKER_00: On to our weather discussion for you today, brought to us by Mr.
• 1:14
  SPEAKER_00: Craig Solberger, in-house meteorologist here at Nezvik Trading.
• 1:19
  SPEAKER_00: We saw some heat relief finally across the Corn Belt, and man, it was much, much needed.
• 1:26
  SPEAKER_00: The heat is going to respond, though, here this coming weekend.
• 1:30
  SPEAKER_00: We're going to see some hard, high temperatures into Sunday.
• 1:34
  SPEAKER_00: But hey, yesterday, Grand Island, Nebraska only got to 69 degrees.
• 1:39
  SPEAKER_00: That is a record low high, if that makes any sense.
• 1:43
  SPEAKER_00: Uh the coldest it's ever been for a high temperature on record for Grand Island, Nebraska.
• 1:49
  SPEAKER_00: You also see that nice colorful strip there into the mid-Atlantic.
• 1:54
  SPEAKER_00: They're going to get a ton of rain there, and there is some flooding risk, but man, it's worth it.
• 1:59
  SPEAKER_00: South Carolina has been exceptionally dry, and they're going to get quite a bit of rain there.
• 2:05
  SPEAKER_00: Well, like I alluded to earlier, we keep on seeing an overnight rally on the grain side of things, and that's really cool to see.
• 2:13
  SPEAKER_00: As I quote the market here live from plus 500 in September contracts, soybeans is at 1232, corn is at 464, and Chicago wheat is at 708.
• 2:26
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, man, these are some numbers that a couple weeks ago would have seemed very, very almost unattainable, probably.
• 2:35
  SPEAKER_00: It is a very strong market when you go to bed and you wake up in the morning and hey, it's higher, which is great to see.
• 2:41
  SPEAKER_00: I think we truly are trading off of some of these crop conditions that people are talking about throughout the Midwest, whether it be flooding in areas, really, really high heats with a lack of moisture as you push farther west into Nebraska and the Dakotas.
• 2:56
  SPEAKER_00: Let us know if there's some sort of weather anomaly happening in your area.
• 3:01
  SPEAKER_00: We'd love to hear about it.
• 3:03
  SPEAKER_00: Make sure and comment down below.
• 3:05
  SPEAKER_00: But on the livestock discussion, we had a big talk about it yesterday with Mr.
• 3:10
  SPEAKER_00: Mike Sands in our Fat Tuesday show that we had on Wednesday.
• 3:14
  SPEAKER_00: We have a cattle on feed report that comes out tomorrow, which would be Friday.
• 3:20
  SPEAKER_00: And there's some different things that we can kind of speculate will happen.
• 3:24
  SPEAKER_00: Here's where we currently stand.
• 3:26
  SPEAKER_00: We have a large front-end supply of cattle sitting in feed yards.
• 3:30
  SPEAKER_00: We haven't moved any young, lightweight cattle into these yards, and at the same time, we haven't sold a lot of them to the packer.
• 3:37
  SPEAKER_00: It's looking like July is going to tell that similar story of a heavyweight cattle sitting there on the verge of their upper weights, not going to town.
• 3:47
  SPEAKER_00: We'll see how long that can hold because it is inevitable that at some point those cattle will have to go to their nearest Big Four Packer.
• 3:56
  SPEAKER_00: The stock market has just been absolutely crazy recently, and I figured I'd pop up this headline from both CNBC and Trade the News.
• 4:05
  SPEAKER_00: We're sponsored by Trade the News.
• 4:07
  SPEAKER_00: Stock futures fall as Alphabet and Tesla drop after stock earnings.
• 4:13
  SPEAKER_00: Man, Alphabet and Tesla in pre-market trading this morning, after both firms signaled increased AI spending, the investors were like, hey, we are spending too much on these costs and riding this artificial intelligence boom way too hard and pulled back there.
• 4:29
  SPEAKER_00: So Tesla was down something like 5%.
• 4:32
  SPEAKER_00: But also the reason stocks in general have been down is because the oil market has gone up so hard and so viciously as we continue to see conflict overseas in Iran, the Brent crude continues to work upwards.
• 4:49
  SPEAKER_00: You know, we haven't done a chart of the day in a while.
• 4:51
  SPEAKER_00: So I figured I'd pop this one on here.
• 4:53
  SPEAKER_00: This is a rerun from yesterday with Mr.
• 4:55
  SPEAKER_00: Mike Sands, and I think it's a s maybe a slight indication of some light at the end of the tunnel for the beef market with regards to growing back the cattle herd.
• 5:06
  SPEAKER_00: That's the beef heifers held as cow replacements as of July 1st in 50 states and the next 50 or in all 50 states, excuse me.
• 5:15
  SPEAKER_00: And we're almost kind of predicting a slight increase.
• 5:18
  SPEAKER_00: Now it's not near of what we were, you know, even 2015, 2017, that time.
• 5:24
  SPEAKER_00: But like we talked about yesterday, I I don't know a lot about animal science, but I spent my fair time in that building at Oklahoma State.
• 5:33
  SPEAKER_00: If you keep a slight net positive, whether you're a retention rate on your replacements, whether you're keeping back goats, sows, rabbits, it does not matter.
• 5:43
  SPEAKER_00: If you have a slightly net positive retention rate, at some point these numbers that we keep back will slart to exponentially grow.
• 5:53
  SPEAKER_00: Now there are, of course, reasons to sell off right now, but at the same time, you know, that's maybe a shimmering hope there.
• 6:00
  SPEAKER_00: Here's the economic calendar for today.
• 6:02
  SPEAKER_00: Export sales and jobless claims come out at 7.30 a.m.
• 6:06
  SPEAKER_00: Central.
• 6:07
  SPEAKER_00: Natural gas storage claims come out at 9.30 a.m.
• 6:10
  SPEAKER_00: And the red meat production comes out post-close at 2.
• 6:15
  SPEAKER_00: Well, that's all I have for you today.
• 6:17
  SPEAKER_00: Thanks for watching and thanks for listening.
• 6:19
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• 6:27
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• 6:34
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• 6:56
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• 6:58
  SPEAKER_00: I'm Jed Sidwell.
• 7:00
  SPEAKER_00: We're a financial channel that loves agriculture.
• 7:03
  SPEAKER_00: Have a great day.