Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / MMA Show | March 16, 2024 | UFC Fight Night DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process

Transcript

MMA Show | March 16, 2024 | UFC Fight Night DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:04
  All systems going clear, you're lifting. Oh baby, we're back talking fights
• 0:38
  thirteen of them, hopefully fingers crossed. Thirteen fights. Weight in's going on
• 0:43
  right now. Almost everybody has weight in. What we just got Na Ton
• 0:47
  Levy is the only weight weight miss thus far, and it does not look
• 0:52
  like he missed by like a half pound. It looks like or something.
• 0:55
  So yeah, expect all thirteen right now, a couple more to weigh in.
• 0:59
  It feels still weird, though, Marley, going from UFC two ninety
• 1:02
  nine, one of the best cards we've had to I'm mediocre at best thirteen
• 1:07
  fight card now, I say that talk in real life fight fan MMA gambling
• 1:11
  aside. Now we care about the gambling aspect making money. I think it's
• 1:15
  a good DFS card, thirteen fights. Of course, my magic number is
• 1:19
  twelve. Thirteen's good. Two favorites, I would say the tier of their
• 1:23
  own. We got Mike Davis minus five hundred, Kennedy minus seven hundred,
• 1:27
  but other than that, a lot of coasely line fights and then the main
• 1:30
  events Big Boys hy Darians pretty much a coin flip right there. So our
• 1:34
  ownership is up and our projections are up on the site right now. Everything
• 1:38
  else will be coming up as well after the show, but we have nobody
• 1:42
  about fifty percent owned. If there is anybody, I think it will be
• 1:47
  Kennedy. We haven't that forty nine percent. But yeah, I'm expecting a
• 1:49
  pretty fun card. How you doing on this fine Friday afternoon, Big Marley,
• 1:55
  Yeah, I'm good. Definitely would be a card that I would skip
• 1:57
  if it wasn't for d But DraftKings is what is gonna make this card fun.
• 2:04
  I do think there's a lot of ways to go on this card.
• 2:06
  There's no real favorites that I want to take a big stand on. I
• 2:09
  think I want to go heavy on the main event, but I think there's
• 2:13
  a lot of close fights on this card, so I'm looking forward to talking
• 2:15
  out with you. I might adjust ownership as we go. I was like,
• 2:20
  really close my first run and then I ended up going on the extra
• 2:23
  ten or something that I needed. But I almost hit you up and I
• 2:25
  was like, where would what would you adjust with this because I was kind
• 2:28
  of struggling with my last adjustments. But we'll do that during the show.
• 2:31
  Hopefully we'll be finalized by the end of it, but looking forward to ship
• 2:35
  it. Shipping it. Yeah, No, I've like a lot of this
• 2:38
  stuff. You have the ownership up, you adjust and we talked through stuff
• 2:40
  just like mine. I have every fight done, pretty much all my contents
• 2:44
  is done, but I don't want to post it to the site yet because
• 2:46
  I value obviously what you're saying. You changed my mind on some of this
• 2:51
  stuff too, So I love the tan and we got going, what's going
• 2:53
  on? Jee Kaifer? Hey, I appreciate that wolfle Ballstreet, Redscott Matt
• 2:58
  here. We appreciate those. Very nice of you. Monk MMA in here,
• 3:02
  Ben's in here, Sean Sullivan's in here. Hope everything's going well.
• 3:06
  Ben. We'll be thinking of you. But yeah, I'm excited for this
• 3:09
  one again, thirteen fights. We appreciate that. Like blood appreciate that subscribe
• 3:14
  button. Obviously a lot of you watch on playback. Hey, just get
• 3:16
  it done now, enjoy the rest of the show. We greatly appreciate it.
• 3:20
  And if you do want to join us at the Nation, no better
• 3:23
  time to get in. PGA Man DJN on that Wednesday stream, that was
• 3:28
  awesome. I see him the discord a little bit. You said, Sack
• 3:30
  dam Wave in the big chat yesterday am Wave if you have the right guys
• 3:36
  looking pretty good right now. No better in the business DJ and tambo hoop.
• 3:39
  MMA. Of course we got going on, NHL, NBA, MLB
• 3:44
  will be here before you know it. And hey, what I love about
• 3:46
  the merger. You got MMA Saturdays, No NFL Sundays, no free money
• 3:51
  Sunday right now. Unfortunately y'all got NASCAR though, Baby Saturday, MMA Big
• 3:55
  Prize Pools, NASCAR Big Prize Pools on Sunday, all the sports one price,
• 4:00
  and use that code Masters fifteen get you fifteen percent off. You sign
• 4:04
  up for the month, and one month from now you will get Master's content.
• 4:08
  So make sure to use that promo code get you fifteen percent off and
• 4:12
  again weekly, monthly, six month and annual packages over here head over ship
• 4:16
  at Nation dot com. Give it a try, and I'll always shout out
• 4:19
  Big Marley. But hey, ownership is tough in this game. MMA.
• 4:23
  Ownership means as much as pretty much any sport. Big Marley has had the
• 4:27
  best in the industry since our man sheets has been tracking, So shout out
• 4:30
  you Big Marley. Very important. Again. That is on the site for
• 4:33
  shipping Nation members. Right now, Let's go fight by fight starting from bottom
• 4:39
  to top. First fight of the night, Charlotte. I'm gonna say,
• 4:45
  man, I was just I was just doing this shit too. Hold on,
• 4:48
  hold on, let me sign on this one out like Charlemagne, not
• 4:51
  like Charlopos Gregoria. How about we go with that Charlotpez Gregoria at minus one
• 4:59
  seventy. It sounds right. It took me like eight seconds to really look
• 5:02
  at it. But I'm gonna go troofus Gregoria minus one seventy making his UFC
• 5:06
  debut, taking on Chant and Helliger minus one seventy is Gregoria plus one forty
• 5:13
  five is and Helleger. This fight is minus one fifty five to finish,
• 5:16
  Gooria plus one thirty inside the distance Chat and Helleger plus three hundred. I'll
• 5:21
  throw it to you right away to start this one off. What are you
• 5:25
  doing in this one? Hey? Are we gonna get whatever we're doing?
• 5:27
  I hope it works out as well as the Wood Morose fight did last week,
• 5:30
  because I was I had a ton of that fight. I think a
• 5:33
  lot of people did. We recommended it and it was looking good. Moro's
• 5:38
  early called her with like there's plenty of pass, but that to be optimals
• 5:41
  so I feel good. I felt good about that, and I hope you
• 5:43
  pick a winner right here for us in this first fight. Yeah, last
• 5:46
  week started out great, ended not great for me, but started out the
• 5:49
  first handful of fights perfectly really, but yeah, this one, I don't
• 5:55
  like this first fight as much. It is minus one fifty five to end
• 6:00
  inside the distance, which is pretty solid, but I do think that this
• 6:03
  Gregorio guy is just a little bit better. I think he's a lot more
• 6:08
  aggressive, with a lot more power in his punches. I also think either
• 6:13
  guy could land a couple takedowns, but I wouldn't expect either one of them
• 6:16
  to be chain wrestling. They're both primarily strikers, so I expect this to
• 6:20
  be a striking match. And if we're not gonna end inside the distance and
• 6:25
  we're only mixing in one, maybe two takedowns, I don't think either side
• 6:29
  is gonna score well in a decision. And I think that is what would
• 6:32
  put an Helliger in play, is just if he could win the close decision
• 6:35
  at seventy three hundred dollars, he probably won't be two owned. I think
• 6:40
  he's in play for that reason, but I just don't really like him and
• 6:43
  he's like thirty seven years old now, not really good at anything. He
• 6:46
  needs to get a knockout to break the slate, and even if he does
• 6:49
  win a close decision, he might not ten x. So I'm probably gonna
• 6:54
  get away from this fight. But on the Gregorio side, if he does
• 6:57
  have heavy hands, if he could knock out in Heligar, which in Helgar
• 7:00
  has not been knocked out yet so that's the worry, then he could make
• 7:03
  the optimal lineup. And I don't think he's gonna get a lot of ownership
• 7:06
  because there are a few people that are priced higher than him that I expect
• 7:10
  to soak up a good amount of it. So I think he's more of
• 7:13
  a pivot away from all the nine K range just that ownership alone. Like
• 7:16
  let's say you could afford any of those nine K people if you just drop
• 7:19
  down to Gregorio and the rest of your lineup is somewhat chocky. I think
• 7:24
  that makes some sense there, So I'll get a little bit of Gregorio exposure.
• 7:27
  But this is the fight I really want to get away from and hope
• 7:30
  that he wins with like a seventy five point score. I'm glad I throw
• 7:33
  it to you first, because I won't have to talk nearly as much.
• 7:35
  I see it literally the exact same you do. Like I like plenty of
• 7:40
  other guys in that upper nine K or in that nine K range, the
• 7:43
  upper ek range. Then Gregory in a vacuum. But this fight is minus
• 7:46
  one fifty five to finish. He is plus one thirty inside the distance,
• 7:50
  and you did mention his ownership. He will. I'm not gonna say the
• 7:54
  ownership for every fight right now because we do have it posted. So if
• 7:57
  you are a ship, a nation member, go to the go to our
• 8:00
  website right now and click it. I'm in May. Obviously, ownership very
• 8:03
  important. We'll keep it premium this week. I do usually say it out
• 8:07
  loud because we don't always have it posted right before we do now, so
• 8:11
  I'm not going to go through that. But yeah, there's no doubt Gregoria
• 8:13
  is going to be one of the lower owned options in that tier. But
• 8:18
  I'm with you, I mean, I think rightfully. So like we look
• 8:20
  who's in that tier. We got Filo at eighty seven hundred, We've got
• 8:24
  Dulgarian, we have those are both cheaper who are way better plays wrestling,
• 8:28
  grappling fights that are supposed to finish GM three ninety one hundred, Kennedy,
• 8:35
  Mike Davis, Thiago Moysis, like all those guys are way way better plays
• 8:41
  in a vacuum money line, inside the distance, prop, etc. Mike
• 8:46
  Davis not necessarily inside the distance prop. But in terms of money line,
• 8:48
  in terms of volume, takedowns, et cetera, we know he has the
• 8:52
  upside there. So yeah, I'm just using Gregoria in lineups that I am
• 8:56
  pretty chalky in. But yeah, and my single entry and stuff like that
• 9:01
  definitely not going to get to him. I prefer Chad if I had to
• 9:05
  pick Aside because of the thirteen or the sixteen hundred dollars savings. But man,
• 9:09
  like you said, I think this fight takes place on the feet.
• 9:11
  I think it's pitter patter probably most of the fight. If it goes a
• 9:15
  decision, I don't think any of them make the optimal. Like Chad wins.
• 9:18
  He still could score seventy five, which you take at this price,
• 9:22
  I guess is a dog, which is why I'm picking him, because seventy
• 9:24
  five could be enough where it's definitely not enough for Gregoria. But still,
• 9:28
  like I mean, man, he's not very good he's thirty six, he's
• 9:31
  dealt with a lot of injuries, he hasn't fought very often, doesn't have
• 9:35
  I mean, he has some pop in his hands, but I think Gogoria
• 9:37
  probably the heavy hitter, the more heavy hitter. Yeah, at the end
• 9:41
  of the day, a long witted answer saying I don't love this fight much.
• 9:46
  Some of these dogs like Mitch Ramirez, like osp Natan Levy are easy,
• 9:50
  easy fades for me. So I'm keeping and Helliger in the pool.
• 9:54
  Again. He's my preferred play, but he falls down the list like probably
• 9:58
  my fifth favorite dog or something on the card. I hope it's unlike last
• 10:01
  week and we get a boring decision, a third round knockout from Gregoria something
• 10:05
  like that, and it's not on the winner. But yeah, both of
• 10:09
  them will be in my pool. I don't want too much ownership Gregoria and
• 10:11
  Chalk your lineups, and then Helliger as just a dog. I'll be mixing
• 10:16
  in. It's how I see it. Say someone's picking winners, Chark,
• 10:18
  that's the goal, man, that is the goal. What's going on,
• 10:22
  Nicholas waiting for this show. We're picking optimal scores, not necessarily winners.
• 10:26
  Hey, mar Man Nicholas knows we're trying to pick some winners. But yes,
• 10:30
  like Nicholas says, it's more game theory. It's more picking the fights.
• 10:33
  At least that's how I play. I'm a picking fights I think will
• 10:37
  be optimal and jamming those more so more than actually picking the winner. Nicholas
• 10:41
  been listening to me, man, I love that stuff. So we'll keep
• 10:43
  a roll though. First fight of the night, hope it's pretty mooring.
• 10:46
  Expected to stay on the feat myself. Next fight on the card, Corey
• 10:50
  McKenna Jacqueline A Marine minus one seventy five is McKenna plus one fifty five or
• 10:56
  plus one fifty is a Marine on the way back. This fight's plus one
• 11:00
  thirty to finish. I'm marine plus two hundred inside the distance Corey McKenna plus
• 11:05
  four to fifty five. All right, this is an interesting one, big
• 11:09
  Marley. This line opened plus one or minus one forty on Marine plus one
• 11:13
  twenty McKenna. McKenna stayed a dog for what two weeks? A little over
• 11:20
  a week, and then money this past couple of days is just poured in
• 11:22
  on her. It was like minus one twenty five on Monday. Now it's
• 11:28
  minus one seventy five for Corey McKenna, or inside of the distance prop plus
• 11:31
  five to fifty down to plus four to fifty five on Marines. Inside the
• 11:35
  distance prop was all the way down to plus one sixty plus one seventy even
• 11:41
  yesterday. Now that's up to plus two hundred. Money's consistently been coming in
• 11:46
  on Corey McKenna, but the Dog and a Marine is has the way better
• 11:50
  inside the distance prop, which makes sense with their grappling credentials. Fast Starter,
• 11:54
  et cetera eighty two hundred eight thousand, closest line on the card.
• 12:01
  I switched my pick on this, at least my preferred play. My preferred
• 12:03
  play I thought earlier in the week was gonna be Omorne. But I'm buying
• 12:07
  into this line movement, and I think Corey McKenna, I'm gonna throw at
• 12:09
  you on this note. I mean, do you think she does what she
• 12:13
  usually does and gets takedowns? Imring was fine off through her back, Obviously
• 12:18
  she'll be fine getting taken down. I think, do you think McKenna's fine
• 12:22
  playing in guard and trying to stay safe for ten minutes and get three takedowns
• 12:24
  and win to fight that way because this so I think she can be optimal
• 12:28
  eighty two hundred. I just don't expect to finish at the end of the
• 12:31
  day, whereas Omrin definitely a finished upside, so I'll have some of her.
• 12:35
  But yeah, what do you see this fight going? Yeah, I'm
• 12:37
  almost the opposite way where I started the week liking mckinna a little bit because
• 12:43
  I do think she could just stay in top control, grind out ten minutes,
• 12:48
  get three plus takedowns in this fight, and do solid. But I
• 12:52
  also think she is the better striker of the two, and if they're going
• 12:56
  to spend time on the feet, then I don't like either side of this
• 12:58
  fight. Yeah, so that's the worry is that McKenna just stuff's takedowns,
• 13:03
  doesn't really care to wrestle too much herself. I just don't trust her,
• 13:07
  I guess. But if I knew her game plan was to go in there
• 13:09
  and get takedowns, then I'm not convinced. I'm not convinced she's that much
• 13:13
  of being have a better striker, which is like the reason I think she
• 13:16
  might get there, Like I feel like imm has way more pop on the
• 13:20
  shots, Like she throws pillows, like the shortest arms is like, I
• 13:24
  mean, yeah, more technical and stuff. But yeah, I'm Mariem at
• 13:28
  least throws something like to mean something she throws. But I do agree she
• 13:31
  probably she's definitely more technical. She can do it for fifteen minutes. Who
• 13:35
  knows about omrin keep going on? But yeah, but uh, both both
• 13:39
  sides can wrestle, but with im Mariem, I think she is a little
• 13:43
  bit more dangerous, especially early in the fight. So if she's the one
• 13:46
  landing takedowns, I think she's live for a first round finish. Yeah,
• 13:50
  and her ownership should be shrinking now because when I did this fight, it
• 13:54
  was minus one twenty five McKenna and now she's like minus one seventy five,
• 13:58
  So that's eight percent sent more likely to win than she was on Monday.
• 14:01
  And I just don't really see where that's coming from. I don't know that
• 14:05
  it's anything that's happened. I don't think Ameriem is injured or anything. I
• 14:09
  think it's just somebody placed a big bet. They probably sell bets and their
• 14:13
  their followers jumped on it as well, so it's like one person changing this
• 14:16
  line, is my opinion, and I'm kind of cool. Just going on
• 14:20
  the other side of it. At this point, I'm Mariem is now my
• 14:22
  preferred play in GPPs. I think McKenna is a good cash game play.
• 14:26
  You got to just take the value in cash. But in GPPs, with
• 14:28
  this ownership shrinking, Amriem still has the same ceiling she had on Monday,
• 14:33
  so I'll probably get leverage on the underdog now. And since McKenna's ownership will
• 14:39
  be raising, I was planning on being maybe twenty five percent or so,
• 14:43
  but now she might be over that, so I might lessen my ownership on
• 14:48
  McKenna and be twenty percent or even less, and just hoping that Ammeriem wins
• 14:52
  this fight. But ultimately I did pick McKenna to win a pretty close fight
• 14:56
  because I think she's her cardio iss a little bit more trustworthy. I think
• 15:01
  maybe she's the better offensive wrestler, especially in the second and the third round.
• 15:05
  I think she is the more technical striker and could just hang out,
• 15:09
  you know, at range, and pick her way to a striking decision,
• 15:13
  which would really suck for DraftKings. We need this fight to take place on
• 15:16
  the ground, but it is right there in the mid range both sides makes
• 15:20
  sense. It's just that the whole new line is changing it for me,
• 15:24
  and I'm kind of switching my preferred play to the underdug. Now that's funny,
• 15:28
  though we both switched our We were on the different sides and we both
• 15:33
  switched and came together. Well, we didn't come together. We're the opposite,
• 15:35
  but we started opposite. We both switched midweek as well. With this
• 15:39
  line movement, it's definitely confusing. What I will say in this fight is
• 15:43
  it surrounded by Tabora taitui vasa the main event five rounds, by far the
• 15:48
  most likely to finish. So you know that that fight's gonna be way higher
• 15:52
  on and you get Isaac Dulgarian, who will get to in a little bit,
• 15:54
  I guess in a little while eighty five hundred dollars, who is clearly
• 15:58
  going to be pretty highly own there. So if you leave like a three
• 16:02
  hundred on the table, I'm not saying you build a Dulgarian lineup, go
• 16:06
  Dulgarian and McKenna, et cetera. But if you have McKenna and you do
• 16:08
  leave three hundred plus and Dulgarian's not in that lineup, like you know,
• 16:14
  you're it's you're gonna have low dupes like, there's just no other way.
• 16:18
  McKenna is a way worse play than Dulgarian on paper, but money line odds
• 16:22
  are pretty similar both can Wressel just wanted to point that out, but that's
• 16:27
  the ownership of this fight has to at least stay somewhat in check. I'm
• 16:32
  wondering what McKenna gets up to with this line movement, but still like plus
• 16:34
  forty five, plus four fifty five inside the distance, still surrounded by main
• 16:40
  event Dulgarian. I don't think it can get too crazy when Matt Marines I've
• 16:45
  seen sharp with the line move McKenna isn't great anywhere, honestly, Yeah,
• 16:48
  I mean she definitely is not great anywhere. I do agree like a Mariem
• 16:52
  has way more first round finishing up side though, which is why I'm gonna
• 16:53
  play some and she will be low owned. But at the end of the
• 16:57
  day, I still don't love this fight. I like it more than Annelliger
• 17:02
  that last fight we just talked about, but there's still plenty more better fights
• 17:04
  on this card in my opinion, we got thirteen of them to talk about.
• 17:08
  So I also don't love it because I could see a Mariem winning the
• 17:11
  first round and then mckinnaby and like, all right, I have to just
• 17:15
  beat her to the punch and start wrestling myself, and then she moves second
• 17:18
  in the third round and that's just not enough at that point. So maybe
• 17:22
  that happens in McKenna scores eighty two points in the decision and I would guess
• 17:26
  that doesn't get there. Yeah, no, I'm with it. Yeah,
• 17:29
  just like in the Sam Hughes fight, we've seen Imrine slow down, a
• 17:30
  fast starter, she can take the back. We'll control most of the fight
• 17:34
  there, so that's definitely in the cards as well. Yeah, again another
• 17:37
  fight I'll be using kind of in lineups that are a little chalk here because
• 17:42
  the main event right around at Tulgary and et cetera. I'm marine will be
• 17:47
  lower owned, so, especially if you need a low owned fighter, a
• 17:49
  Marine has upside plus one fifty not bad at all. Enough on that fight,
• 17:53
  though, let's keep it rolling. Joshua Cooley Bow Danny Silva. Minus
• 17:57
  one eighty is cool about plus one fIF fifty five is Silva. This fight
• 18:02
  is plus one thirty to finish, cool about plus two forty inside the distance
• 18:07
  Danny Silva plus three sixty. I mean, man, I'll say, as
• 18:11
  far as Kolibaut, I look at him like, would I call him Diau
• 18:15
  earlier. I'm really curious what is actually I'm gonna call him Dureau again.
• 18:18
  Eighty nine eighty eight hundred is cool about? I look at them so similar.
• 18:23
  I've st this fight to mainly play out on the feet cool Abou's low
• 18:26
  volume. Both of them right in that same price range, like I'm on
• 18:30
  I both of them taked his underweights in the Sleave plan. I'll say that
• 18:33
  right now their ownership will be pretty low own two. So I'm gonna cap
• 18:37
  their ownership and then I'll use them and chalk your lineups. At least is
• 18:41
  my plan. Is how I'm gonna attack them. Way more interest in the
• 18:44
  Danny Silva side. I like Danny Silva more than Chan and Helleger if I
• 18:48
  had to pick for the simple fact of dude through he landed over two hundred
• 18:52
  synficans strikes, two hundred four significant strikes, and through three hundred and seventeen
• 18:56
  strikes in the Contender series fight. I mean, he literally plods forward.
• 19:02
  He's fine eating one to give one, and he'll just keep going volume,
• 19:04
  volume, volume, cardios there for days. Hey, what's going on,
• 19:08
  John? We appreciate that right on cue. Thanks, Silva gets optimal if
• 19:12
  he wins, I'll throw it to you, Marley. But my answer is
• 19:15
  yes, if you tell me he's winning, I'm one hundred percent in twenty
• 19:19
  entry in below in one point fifty. I don't know if I'm quite one
• 19:22
  hundred percent, but I mean, man, I'm at least over one hundred.
• 19:26
  So yeah, with his volume, I do think if he wins,
• 19:30
  he'll probably be optimal at this price. But we really do appreciate that,
• 19:33
  John, that ten dollars. I hope you're doing well. Very nice of
• 19:36
  you. Yeah, yeah, thank you, John. Yeah. I do
• 19:41
  think Silva has a good chance of being optimal if he wins, just because
• 19:44
  of that pace alone. And he also has knockout power too, so he
• 19:47
  has one hundred point upside even I mean, he has a hundred point upside
• 19:51
  just with that volume alone. I don't see this being anywhere near that Dana
• 19:55
  White's Contender series fight that same pace, mostly because of the kool about side.
• 20:00
  Silvia landed two hundred and four significant strikes in that one fight. Kulibau
• 20:03
  has had six UFC fights, seventy five minutes worth of cage time, and
• 20:10
  he has not landed two hundred and four combined significant strikes. So my plan
• 20:15
  is to just completely x out Kulibau. Here is plus two forty inside the
• 20:18
  distance. Silver's hittable and Kulibah could maybe even choke him out if he goes
• 20:25
  to the ground, but he doesn't wrestle or he's not really gonna wrestle much
• 20:27
  anyways, and he's not a big time power puncher, so I don't want
• 20:30
  to rely on that, And if it gets out of the first round,
• 20:33
  maybe a knockout from him won't even be enough. At eighty eight hundred,
• 20:37
  so Kulibau complete fade for me, and then Silva at seventy four hundred,
• 20:41
  I will be overweight to him. I'm picking him to win just because of
• 20:44
  that volume alone. I think that the line should be a little bit closer,
• 20:48
  and if he can throw two hundred and four significant strikes, then I
• 20:52
  feel good about his score even in a decision here, but he's got knockout
• 20:56
  power, could score one hundred points and break the slate. Sol was the
• 21:00
  leverage play for me. But I think it really comes down to how many
• 21:03
  underdogs win on this card. I think there's other underdogs with you know,
• 21:07
  higher ceilings, but I only picked a few to win. So Silva is
• 21:11
  definitely one of my favorites. Do you prefer Macy? Are you? Are
• 21:17
  you gonna have any Macy? I guess is a question chess, because I
• 21:21
  was debating cool Like. I don't like Coolbau much Macy, I guess right
• 21:26
  now. I think you even talked me into it. I think I'm gonna
• 21:27
  go Macy underway Kolibau fade in this slate plan. But what are your thoughts
• 21:32
  on Macy? Like? Again another low owned pivot that nine k range,
• 21:36
  similar to Coolbaugh, et cetera. But I definitely have more Chias and I'm
• 21:41
  much more interested in her. I don't think she'll get much ownership either,
• 21:45
  and I think she has a much more likely ceiling if she wins. So
• 21:48
  uh, cool About is my favorite fade on the card. To be honest,
• 21:51
  yeah, I like it. And again that's why I don't publish anything
• 21:55
  up yet. I was debating those two, and I was debating Duo in
• 21:57
  there as well. But you made my life there easy. I do.
• 22:00
  I won't be having cool about on twenty and below. I like self aside
• 22:03
  Macy will get to it a little bit, but I do think she's gonna
• 22:07
  be low owed again, similar thoughts of in Chalky lineups to get different.
• 22:11
  I think she's fine and she does have upside in that matchup. But let's
• 22:14
  get to the next fight on the card. And again we appreciate that.
• 22:15
  John, what's going on, Jake, I hope you're doing well. I
• 22:19
  thought he said happy birthdays. Someone's birthday in here. He said, how
• 22:22
  about you though. Next fight on the card Jefelle Filo taking on Oday Osbourne
• 22:29
  phil Oh minus one fifty three o Day Osborne plus one thirty three. This
• 22:34
  fight one of the most likely to finish on the card at minus two sixty
• 22:38
  Filoh minus one ten Oday Osborne plus two seventy. So we have seen line
• 22:45
  movement in this one. When the odds came out on Monday or right,
• 22:49
  it was Sunday one of the two, it was around minus one eighty.
• 22:52
  So this fight open minus one fifty five. Pilo got down to minus one
• 22:56
  eighty. Oday got some buyback and it's now in that or now the lines
• 23:00
  minus one fifty three one thirty three. So just looking at pricing, Oday's
• 23:07
  the side in terms of value on the money line, you look at inside
• 23:10
  the distance prop Oday's very good at plus two to seventy for seventy five hundred.
• 23:15
  Now what I will say about Filo though, is I mean, man
• 23:18
  eighty seven hundred for minus one fifty three is a little bit of an overspend
• 23:22
  if you look at it like that. But as you guys know, we
• 23:23
  don't care about money line value as much, et cetera, and GPPs.
• 23:27
  You need a big boy score. Filo's got a big boy upside in this
• 23:32
  one, and I think his ownership is gonna be lower than it should.
• 23:33
  I'm looking at what we have right now. I'll say that out loud,
• 23:37
  nineteen percent. I'm gonna be overweight on Filo at nineteen percent. The grappling
• 23:41
  advantage he wants to get to the fights of the map, showed a lot
• 23:45
  of toughness in his last fight. Oday advantage on the feet, Filo on
• 23:48
  the mats, and again Oday's gonna I like both sides of this fight,
• 23:52
  but I do like the line movement going against Filo and overspending for upside,
• 23:56
  and I'm gonna pick him too. With the grappling advantage, you get a
• 24:00
  so yeah, great fights, a target by far the best that we've talked
• 24:03
  about thus far on the card in my opinion, Yeah, I'm kind of
• 24:07
  the opposite as that McKenna fight on this one where I like the favorite more.
• 24:14
  Now because this line is shrinking, I think Philo's ownership comes down.
• 24:18
  I would have had him mid twenties if he was still minus one eighty here,
• 24:22
  but I moved him down sub twenty because of that. And now on
• 24:27
  the other side, Osborne his ownership should be climbing, Whereas I liked him
• 24:30
  a little bit before if he was going to go overlooked, because I do
• 24:33
  think Osborne is the better striker here. Osborne might be the better wrestler too,
• 24:38
  So if he can just use this fight, use his wrestling to keep
• 24:41
  this fight on the feet, I think Osborne wins and he could knock this
• 24:45
  guy out. So on Monday, I would have had a lot more Osbourne.
• 24:52
  But now, I mean he might be twenty five plus percent owned,
• 24:56
  and I don't know that I want to get leverage to that. So I'm
• 24:59
  thinking, let me just get leverage to the Filo side. I think he
• 25:03
  if he's gonna win this fight, it's gonna come through the ground. He's
• 25:04
  not a great wrestler, but he's a really good grappler, and I think
• 25:07
  he will, you know, attempt to chain wrestle until he can get the
• 25:11
  fight to the ground, and eventually I see him doing that and probably submitting
• 25:15
  Osbourne. So Felo is my preferred play. He's my pick to win,
• 25:19
  and I'm gonna be more overweight to him now than I would have been on
• 25:23
  Monday. And I'll probably be around field on Osborne, if not underweight now
• 25:27
  because the field just might have passed me by with this new line. But
• 25:33
  good fight to target overall, get exposure to both sides. But for me,
• 25:37
  it's cash games. Osborne GPPs, Filo. Yeah, No, I
• 25:41
  like this fight. I mean I was with you even the beginning of the
• 25:44
  week when I thought Philo would be like twenty five thirty percent, I still
• 25:48
  was gonna get some So I really like this line movement coming down. Expecting
• 25:53
  ownership to come down, I'll still play oday. I'll be the donkey even
• 25:56
  if he's twenty five percent. I'll have some of them because that's when I'll
• 26:00
  be using some of those lower owned pieces in lineups like that or leaving money,
• 26:04
  etc. But Ode has one hundred plus point upside like first round knock
• 26:07
  out upside. Filo got dropped in his last fight against a striker, showed
• 26:11
  toughness and when he gets it to the mat. I mean these so most
• 26:15
  people watch him probably recognize some of these names, but Philo is the one
• 26:18
  that fought Makayev. There's a million fighters on the roster. You probably can
• 26:22
  tell when I butcher some of these names. There's too many to know all
• 26:26
  of them, and they're all over the world. But Philo fought Makayev what
• 26:30
  was it like a year ago about I think, and he had him in
• 26:33
  that knee bar in the third round, and how McKai didn't tap who knows.
• 26:37
  But man like, if he wins that fight on paper, I feel
• 26:41
  like this line would naturally just somehow'll be like minus two hundred or something.
• 26:45
  But give me Philo to get it to the mat eventually. But I'll definitely
• 26:48
  be playing some Osborne too for for a play Philo, especially at the ownership
• 26:52
  the line movement going against him. I will be having a lot of this
• 26:56
  fight though, for sure. Oh more mob O'Malley is gonna be very fun,
• 27:02
  Jake, no doubt about that. Keep it rolling. Next fight thirteen
• 27:06
  to talk about again. Appreciate everyone hanging out with us like button subscribe button
• 27:08
  helps us out a ton. And if you want all of our MMA content,
• 27:11
  projections, ownerships, late plans, fight rankings to go along with NBA,
• 27:17
  NHL, PGA, NASCARMBB will be here before you know it. No
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  better price, no better content in the industry. Chipin'nation dot com and you
• 27:27
  can use that code Masters fifteen to get fifteen percent off those packages. Keep
• 27:33
  it rolling, Big Marley. Next fight on the card. Back to the
• 27:36
  woman's division. Josianna Nunyaz taken on Chelsea Chandler minus one forty one is Nunyaz
• 27:42
  plus one twenty one Chandler. Excuse me, this fight's minus one thirty to
• 27:48
  finish Nunyas plus one sixty five Chandler plus three hundred. Looking at hold on,
• 27:53
  let me refresh the weigh ins. All right, Chelsea Chandler still is
• 27:56
  not weighed in. That was one that I had circle for sure, because
• 28:02
  I mean, there's no such thing really as a one forty five division anymore.
• 28:04
  She fought Norma Dumont at one. Many of y'all probably remember that fight
• 28:10
  because if you've ever seen the movie, Oh my gosh, I what is
• 28:15
  uh? What is the when they have that black guy that's strapped in the
• 28:21
  chair down below and like they're messing with them doing all the the like someone
• 28:26
  in chests got to know. It's so so popular of a movie too,
• 28:30
  And I'm about to use an analogy. And anyway, it's when the dude
• 28:33
  like he's trying to take off and just like screaming, running as fast as
• 28:37
  he can booking it. That's what Chelsea Chandler was doing against Dumont in the
• 28:41
  first round last time. But she was cracked. She turned right around.
• 28:45
  It was running for the fence like she was gonna run through it. Still
• 28:48
  one of the funniest things I've ever seen. And I need someone in chat
• 28:51
  to get me that movie. My description probably wasn't very good, but it's
• 28:56
  a creepy family that like auctions off pretty much, I mean, so popular.
• 29:02
  Someone's gonna drop it in here. Back to Mma, though I'm on
• 29:03
  the dog in this one bit more like get out, Yes, thank you,
• 29:07
  get out is right? That is exactly thank you. Jordan. Thank
• 29:10
  you, gee Kiper. That's what Chelsea Chandler was doing, running trying to
• 29:12
  get out of the octagon last fight. Daniel's in here and all the people
• 29:17
  in here. Now back to this fight, though, give me the dog
• 29:18
  in this one. If I'm picking, prefer playing DraftKings my pick to win
• 29:23
  this fight. I mean, you look at these two again. Assuming Chelsea
• 29:26
  Chandler makes weight and this fight's on, she's what only three people Silva,
• 29:32
  Koolibao and actually four Mike Davis, Kouliboo, Silva, and Chandler are left
• 29:36
  to weigh in. So a little nervous right here with Chelsea Chandler. But
• 29:38
  assuming she's good, she's gonna look like three weight classes above Nunia's. Nunia's
• 29:45
  as small as it gets, Chandler's big, gonna have to cut down to
• 29:48
  this weight. I think all she needs is a takedown to end up on
• 29:52
  top and just be fine for a whole round due damage, et cetera.
• 29:56
  Nunias has some pop in her hands, but man, I mean she she
• 30:00
  is so short. She just loops those left hands, just loops some can't
• 30:03
  she check? Can she catch Chandler? Sure? And all that summer at
• 30:06
  eighty four hundred. Give me Chandler though, to win this fights. I
• 30:10
  like her as a play. I think there's wrestling upside and you can build
• 30:12
  lineups. Paul again, Nunyaz takeout Nuniaz go. Chandler leaves six hundred,
• 30:17
  and I'm totally good with that. Telly, Yeah, I'm not gonna put
• 30:22
  that one out. But yeah, what's going on, Marley? That'll doy
• 30:26
  Buddy down there. Yeah, Yeah, I agree, man, I'm on
• 30:30
  the underdog in this one. I think the wrong fighter is favored. I
• 30:33
  think there's a lot of recency bias really with Chandler running in that last fight.
• 30:37
  I mean that was probably the last time I like, literally laughed out
• 30:40
  loud in a fight was when she was running away. But I mean that's
• 30:42
  what people remember about her. And then she lost the fight, and then
• 30:45
  you got this new nest girl who's knocking girls out, which it doesn't happen
• 30:49
  much. So that's why Neons is favored here. I don't think she is
• 30:52
  a better fighter. I think in a striking match, a fifteen minute striking
• 30:56
  match, she's more likely to knock out Chandler. But I don't rely on
• 31:00
  knockouts in WMMA, to be honest with you, and this girl's five foot
• 31:04
  two. I mean she's just she's so short. She's like Chandler could just
• 31:07
  hold her head out there, you know, and then it's crazy she's knocking
• 31:11
  people out, like it's like when you watch on TV, It's like,
• 31:14
  what is going on? But she obviously has some pop. Yeah, I
• 31:18
  mean she's definitely got power. But in a fifteen minute striking match, give
• 31:22
  me Chandler, to be honest with you, I think she's the better striker
• 31:23
  overall. Both of them are hit able, but I mean that really only
• 31:29
  matters a lot on the Chandler side if she gets knocked out, and that's
• 31:30
  what puts noone's on the optimal lineup. A fifteen minute fight with Nouna's winning
• 31:34
  a decision. I don't think she is on the optimal lineup. Even if
• 31:38
  even if she wins all three rounds, I still think she's probably not gonna
• 31:41
  make the optimal lineup. But now Chandler is the one with wrestling upside.
• 31:45
  She lost her last fight because she got out wrestled, but she doesn't have
• 31:48
  that worry in this fight anymore. Chandler's gonna be the better wrestler in this
• 31:52
  one, and when she goes for takedowns, Nona's isn't gonna have anything to
• 31:55
  offer off her back. I think Chandler could put up one hundred plus points
• 31:59
  in this one if she does go out there and wrestll so give me the
• 32:01
  UNDERDOGO will be overweight for sure to Chandler, and I'll be underweight to NOONEZ.
• 32:06
  I'm not gonna completely fade her because since I'm gonna be so high on
• 32:09
  Chandler, I need a little bit of hedge in case that knockout happens.
• 32:13
  I don't want to be completely pissed off. But yeah, I think the
• 32:15
  wrong girl's favorite here is give me Chandler to win and maybe clearly very c
• 32:21
  Yeah, I love to hear that. I'm already on camer watching on playback
• 32:25
  get Out. Thanks, thanks on Man, and I definitely butch your name
• 32:30
  so Camar bro one, Ellie, That's what I'm gonna call you. But
• 32:34
  yeah, I love it. I mean I was on Chandler, you were
• 32:36
  on Chandler. That makes me feel really good. What I will say though,
• 32:38
  because I'm not fading Nunia's by any means either, She's gotta be somewhat.
• 32:43
  Your ownership's got to be cap because Dulgarian's gonna be one or one hundred
• 32:46
  more, gonna be a lot higher on a eighty five hundred, then you
• 32:50
  get eighty three hundred and seventy nine hundred with Tye in Tybura. So Newtonia's
• 32:53
  has to be capped for sure. And this money line isn't great for her.
• 32:57
  Plus one sixty five inside, the distance is still fine. And so
• 33:00
  while I am picking Chandler, prefer Chandler all of that. Like someone mentioned
• 33:06
  her Micholas mentioned earlier in chap. Mainly I pick fights and ownership and et
• 33:10
  cetera. Is how I play MMA DFS. Even though I think she loses.
• 33:15
  If she wins, she has upside. Ownership will be capped. She
• 33:17
  will be in my pool for that reason. But yeah, Chandler, for
• 33:21
  both of us, I love it. Let's keep her own plenty. Still
• 33:24
  to talk about Mike Davis Na ton Levy again, Mike Davis hasn't weighted yet.
• 33:30
  Minus five hundred is Mike Davis plus three seventy five on the way back
• 33:34
  is Na ton Levee. This fight is plus four or five plus one five
• 33:37
  to finish with all the Finnish equity on the Davis side at plus one five
• 33:44
  the ton Levy plus eleven hundred. Mike Davis the third highest price fighter on
• 33:50
  the card, the second biggest favorites the open minus three hundred, and man
• 33:53
  is he taking money the past week? I mean, I'm looking at March
• 33:58
  seventh, he was minus two four one Marsha and I and minus two forty
• 34:00
  five. Fast forward a couple days, not even a week, minus five
• 34:05
  hundred. I agree with the line movement. I think Mike Davis is better
• 34:07
  wherever this fight goes. I love watching Mike Davis fights. That Mason Jones
• 34:12
  fight was a make He's always in fun fights. I guess the slava clause
• 34:15
  was fun for me because I had a lot of them. But he took
• 34:17
  the easiest path of victory, Like, why strike with slava clause? Take
• 34:21
  him down? I think Mike Davis can win this fight wherever he wants.
• 34:24
  Lands over five's takedown or lines over five significant strikes per minute, lands over
• 34:30
  three takedowns per fifteen. He's a DFS monster. You don't even need a
• 34:34
  finish for him. But yeah, I do think he'll be the second most
• 34:37
  popular in the upper tier. I feel confident about that, but I still
• 34:40
  think he's probably like ten percent less than Kennedy and the two hundred. So
• 34:45
  if you play a lineup, you have Kennedy, take him out, play
• 34:49
  Mike Davis, you leave two hundred. I think, depending on what your
• 34:52
  other five spots are, you can have very cut out a lot of dupes
• 34:57
  and stuff. Just doing that, I think even if Mike Davis is forty
• 35:00
  percent, Kennedy's fifty, the two hundred being able to upgrade, et cetera,
• 35:04
  I think will do enough. So yeah, I like Mike Davis plenty.
• 35:07
  He's my second favorite in the upper tier, I guess, in the
• 35:12
  nine k range, behind Kennedy. But yeah, like him or Moistis,
• 35:15
  I guess I throw it to you in this car or in this fight than
• 35:19
  anything else. You gotta say, Yeah, speaking of Moises, we skipped
• 35:22
  that fight, so we have to go back all that. Yeah under yeah,
• 35:27
  yeah, man, we have forty percent. I'll just say out loud,
• 35:31
  we have forty percent for Date forty one and forty nine for Kennedy,
• 35:35
  so he's gonna be on. But again the point of what I said,
• 35:38
  I think Kennedy will still be ten percent higher. He's going to be the
• 35:40
  second highest up top, and yeah, I think a lot of that is
• 35:45
  because of the line moving from minus three hundred to minus five hundred. So
• 35:49
  it's another one where I liked him a little bit more earlier in the week,
• 35:52
  but now the field is caught up and I don't know how much leverage
• 35:55
  I want to get. And at this point, I'm fine just getting different
• 35:59
  in the k range. Like my favorite Davis lineup, I could take him
• 36:02
  out and move down a little bit lower and pick a handful of people out.
• 36:07
  So I'm just kind of thinking a ways I'm gonna get different on this
• 36:09
  card. I'm more focused on the underdogs that I like, and then I
• 36:14
  can get a little bit crazy with the expensive favorites. But I do like
• 36:17
  Davis in this fight. I think he's got a big striking edge. He's
• 36:21
  a good wrestler too. I don't think we're gonna see anywhere near a nine
• 36:24
  takedown performance from him in this matchup, but I do like him to get
• 36:28
  a knockout. The issue is that Vegas likes him to win a decision.
• 36:31
  That's his most likely prop anyways, and if he does win a decision and
• 36:37
  he's not going from any takedowns. I don't think he's gonna be on the
• 36:39
  optimal lineup, and if he's gonna be forty percent owned, that makes me
• 36:43
  want to get away from him. But if I'm right and he does get
• 36:45
  a knockout, he might even have a takedown or two leading up to it.
• 36:49
  Could be really high volume, like he has one hundred and twenty points
• 36:52
  ceilings, So this one I'm not sure what to do with. I'll probably
• 36:54
  just end up being around field weight. I'll just let the solver do its
• 36:59
  thing. If it gives me an extra twenty percent, that's fine. If
• 37:02
  it gives me ten percent under the field, that's fine as well. And
• 37:07
  then on the levee side, if Levy wins this fight, I feel good
• 37:08
  about him making the opt or not making the optimal lineup, but scoring more
• 37:13
  than ten x because it's gonna have to come through the ground. He's gonna
• 37:15
  have to win two plus rounds of takedowns or he's gonna have to submit Davis.
• 37:21
  Either way, I think his scores well so good fights target both sides
• 37:24
  of I prefer Davis, but at this point, maybe Levy is my preferred
• 37:30
  leverage play. Because he won't get much ownership, So maybe I can get
• 37:32
  fifteen percent off him and still be over the field. Yeah you, I
• 37:37
  think you definitely would be overweight with fifteen percent Levy he'd also have fifteen percent
• 37:42
  dead lineups. But hey, that's someone's got to pay the rake now I'm
• 37:45
  playing. Yeah, I mean Davis, I don't really have much more to
• 37:50
  add. I think he knocks him out too. I said knockout. He
• 37:52
  can Nixon takedowns if I think if he wants to the light kicks, I
• 37:54
  think will be money the jab. I mean when Mike Davis fights, he
• 37:59
  is so fun watch. He is the boxing's cris He can mix in takedowns,
• 38:02
  the cardio is fine. I just think he's better than Levy everywhere.
• 38:07
  And I think eventually Levy is gonna he's not gonna be able to take the
• 38:09
  damage and he'll get knocked out. So yeah, Mike Davis in this one.
• 38:13
  But I'm with you, Like I like Mike Davis a lot. But
• 38:15
  if I loved everything all my exposures and I got twenty percent Mike Davis,
• 38:20
  I'd be fine with it. If I loved everything else, Like that's kind
• 38:22
  of how I go with a lot of that stuff in the nine k's,
• 38:27
  so yeah, I'll let that determine. But I do like Mike Davis will
• 38:30
  have no Naton Levy. Let's get to the other third biggest favorite on the
• 38:32
  card. I missed the fight Thiago moysas Mitch Ramirez. Mitch Ramirez stepping in
• 38:37
  on short notice for Brad Riddell. I would have been a fun fight.
• 38:40
  And Moyses was minus two hundred against Brad Riddell, which surprised me a little
• 38:45
  bit. Now minus three seventy. This fight's minus two hundred to finish.
• 38:50
  Moys is minus one forty inside the distance, Ramirez plus five twenty five.
• 38:55
  Like, I much prefer if I had to pick one of the I'm not
• 38:58
  playing Ramirez and twny teams or less if I got to any of these big
• 39:01
  dogs, though, it would clearly be Mitch Ramirez for me. But man
• 39:07
  like feels like on the feet Moistis is probably better. The CAF kicks will
• 39:12
  be there. He just taught way better competition then on the mat. Like
• 39:15
  the grappling isn't even close. Iago's a very good grappler. I don't know,
• 39:20
  I guess wrestling Mitch Ramirez maybe has a little bit. I still don't
• 39:23
  think at the end of the day's short notice going against a fringe fifteen guy
• 39:28
  who's fought got twenty minutes with Islam, has fought very good competition. I
• 39:32
  can't pick them, but I don't know. I guess maybe I could out
• 39:36
  in my pool caplim at like five percent of be with the field if you
• 39:39
  if you talk me into him, Yeah, I'm not gonna do that.
• 39:43
  I think I'm ex and Ramirez out. I mean, and the line really
• 39:45
  doesn't make sense compared to the Riddle fight, Like I don't know how he's
• 39:50
  just ten percent more likely to beat Ramirez than he was Riddell. That's more
• 39:54
  on the ridel side, Like I would have been betting Riddell probably, But
• 39:58
  now this Ramirez guy, like I'm not sold that he beats Moises in a
• 40:01
  fifteen minute striking match, So he seems more knockout or bust. And Moiss
• 40:07
  just got his ass kicked in his last fight real bad, and I think
• 40:10
  that's why people just aren't too high on him here. But this seems like
• 40:15
  last week. He seems like gam Rot from last week, where you're right
• 40:17
  in between two people who are going to be higher owned, and that I
• 40:22
  didn't have gam Rot, so this week I do want to get a little
• 40:27
  bit of Moistus, and I think he makes a lot of sense as a
• 40:29
  pivot away from Kennedy and Mike Davis Price right in the middle of those guys,
• 40:34
  those guys will be more owned, and Moises could go out there and
• 40:37
  just completely dominate this fight in the first round. He could land three takedowns
• 40:40
  and then get a submission with strikes along the way too. So I could
• 40:45
  see moist Is scoring one hundred and fifteen points here and just outscoring those guys
• 40:49
  making the optimal lineup. So I think I'll probably end up overweight on the
• 40:53
  Moist's side, but I just didn't like what I saw on our mirrors.
• 40:59
  I don't think he belongs in the UFC, so I'm just gonna x him
• 41:01
  out of my player pool make this a little bit easier for me. I'll
• 41:05
  be overweight on the underdogs that I like to win, and you can find
• 41:07
  all those guys over at ship in nation dot com. I give my predictions
• 41:10
  or the method of victory for every single fight, So the guys that I'm
• 41:14
  picking the win are the ones that I'll be leveraged on. Yeah, Marley
• 41:16
  gives his the pick, what round and how he thinks submission decision finished.
• 41:22
  It's almost like you looked up my writing, though, because I wrote the
• 41:24
  same thing. Tiaga Moys is the GAMRA play of last week. He has
• 41:29
  to be sandwiched like Kennedy Mike Davis, right in between the worst money line
• 41:34
  out odds out of them. I just he has to be so. I
• 41:37
  mean, man, it hurts here in Gamra. One less takedown It's all
• 41:40
  I needed. One less freaking takedown a couple of milliseconds earlier. I can't
• 41:45
  believe it still sings a little bit one hundred and thirty five k later,
• 41:47
  But yeah, I mean I was so tilted for you after that. Yeah,
• 41:52
  I would say, Hey, that's that's life, man, That's how
• 41:53
  it goes. Always on the next as Hammo says one of my favorites,
• 41:57
  nobody cares. Work harder than the day, Nobody really does care. At
• 42:00
  the end of the day, they care if they win all that money,
• 42:02
  except a couple of the homies like you, like my Manrio. Some of
• 42:06
  you guys hit me up there, but nobody cares. Where card We'll get
• 42:08
  right back to it's Moyses, though I got nothing more to add right between
• 42:13
  Gamera or right the same play as Gamera out last week, Kennedy, Mike
• 42:16
  Davis, Moys's I'll be using using him at chalkier lineups or in lower own
• 42:22
  lineups. Not like he's going to be a big difference maker. But if
• 42:25
  you have money on the table and you play Moyses and you don't play Davis
• 42:29
  or Kennedy, you can definitely build some pretty solid lineups there, and minus
• 42:31
  one forty inside the distance good Moyses in round one is plus two to fifty,
• 42:37
  which is solid. The last thing I will mention though, two days
• 42:40
  ago, if Wednesday Moyses got down to minus four fifty, then someone put
• 42:45
  a big bet or something on Ramirez now all the way to minus three seventy,
• 42:49
  and it looks like one bet was covered eighty cents. So I don't
• 42:52
  know what I mean. Maybe his parents met your Ramiir's parents or something,
• 42:57
  but that is very interesting to note. Yeah, I don't think it would
• 43:00
  be like too sharp of money, but I'm also I also don't understand why
• 43:05
  Moist isn't a bigger favorite, So I don't know maybe there's something I don't
• 43:07
  know about this Ramirez guy. I didn't really watch a whole lot of fights
• 43:09
  about from him, but what I did see, I just wasn't impressed enough
• 43:14
  for me to haven't to think he has a realistic chance of beating Moises.
• 43:17
  If you told me this a fifteen minute striking match, that's really where he
• 43:21
  would have his best chance. But I would still take Moises in that.
• 43:22
  Yeah me too, Yeah me too. We'll keep it moving though, Moises
• 43:27
  or busting this one for me. I will say personally, though, if
• 43:30
  I had to play one of these dogs down below, I would play like
• 43:34
  between Levy, osp And and Ramirez. I would go Ramirez. It sounds
• 43:39
  like Judio Levy right, Yeah, yeah cool, Let's keep going. Next
• 43:44
  flight on the card. So what six to talk about? Geraldnersh Brian barbara
• 43:49
  And minus two thirty eight. And I will say Mike Davis didn't make weight,
• 43:53
  Sody cooliboos so right now, just waiting on Chelsea Chandler's sketch. Don't
• 43:58
  like seeing that and Danny's silva also don't love seeing that, but yeah,
• 44:02
  keep it going. Uh meer Shark Brian Barbarina minus two thirty eight meer Shart
• 44:07
  plus two oh three is Barbarina. This fights minus one seventy five to finish,
• 44:13
  I will say it open minus two hundred, so some money has came
• 44:15
  in on the over Mearshark minus won twenty five inside the distance Barbarina plus five
• 44:22
  twenty five. I mean two UFC vets. I would say two old dudes,
• 44:25
  but like Barbarina's thirty two or is it GM three? One of those
• 44:30
  two? Let me I wrote it up. I was so surprised to see
• 44:32
  if it was like thirty four and thirty two or something, which is absolutely
• 44:37
  shocking. Thirty six, okay, thirty six is GM three. Thirty four
• 44:39
  is Barbarina. Man. I thought both of them were a little older,
• 44:44
  especially Barbarina. I will say, though, when you're talking UFC career wise,
• 44:49
  I mean Barbarina's got a foot out the door, and that might even
• 44:51
  be being nice. How he's fighting at one eighty five, That is not
• 44:54
  it GM three, though he's still cooking, and I think he could still
• 44:58
  cook for a couple of years. Like his grappling just poises such a mind
• 45:05
  a f I'm not gonna swear, but just confuse it like they don't want
• 45:07
  to go to the ground. They cannot end up on the ground against GM
• 45:10
  three, And I think his striking is a little underrated actually, because people
• 45:15
  do respect the grappling so much, so, I mean, I get the
• 45:17
  line, like seeing GM three at minus two forty is crazy, but man
• 45:22
  Barbarina, looking at his frame, he should fight at one fifty five.
• 45:25
  He's fighting at one eighty five. He throws good volume. If he wins,
• 45:30
  I think he does score pretty well. GM three is still a primary
• 45:34
  grappler, but I'm on the GM three side. I guess in DFS though,
• 45:37
  like, how do you see this fight? How do you like it
• 45:39
  compared to others in the range? Yeah, I like the GM three side
• 45:45
  more. I'll probably be overweight to him, depending I don't know. I
• 45:50
  guess depends on where the field is. That on him, because I could
• 45:52
  see him getting a first round submission scoring ninety seven points and maybe that just
• 45:58
  isn't enough. But if you told me he's gonna score ninety seven points,
• 46:01
  I still probably want a good amount, and I think that it's fairly likely
• 46:05
  because his real edge is gonna be on the ground in this fight. Barberina
• 46:09
  has no takedown defense. He was submitted in two of his last three losses.
• 46:15
  Miershark has like twenty seven career submissions, so I think at some point
• 46:21
  he's gonna submit Barberina. That's how I see this fight going down, and
• 46:23
  he could rack up like six plus takedowns in the process if Barberina keeps getting
• 46:28
  up before he gets submitted. So I feel like Meerschar has a big ceiling,
• 46:34
  but I also think he could. I mean, he's not a great
• 46:37
  wrestler, and if the striking is going, if it's close, maybe he
• 46:39
  spends too much time striking, and that's gonna take away from any ceiling that
• 46:45
  he's gonna have. At ninety one hundred points, So if we spend the
• 46:47
  first round striking and then he decides he wants to go to the wrestling,
• 46:51
  it's probably too late. At that point, he's probably off the optimal lineup.
• 46:54
  So I feel like I gotta cap his ownership somewhere. But at the
• 46:58
  same time, if he's gonna be close to half his own as a Kennedy
• 47:01
  or a Davis, then I like him quite a bit more. And then
• 47:06
  Barbarina, he's in plays like a live underdog who could win a striking match.
• 47:09
  Here, he could knock out mear Shart, that's what would break the
• 47:13
  slate. But I like other underdogs more so. It's it's a fight where
• 47:16
  I probably just matched the field or something like that on both sides. But
• 47:21
  I like Meershart to get a submission. I picked the second round though,
• 47:24
  so second round submission. He's got to wrestle in the first round in order
• 47:29
  for that to pay off. Yeah, I don't really have too much more
• 47:31
  to add. Like, if I had forty percent mear Shart and loved everything,
• 47:36
  again, I'd be fine with that. If I had twenty percent mear
• 47:37
  Shart and I loved everything, I'd be fine with that as well. And
• 47:42
  for all the points you just made, like he has definitely has the advantage
• 47:45
  on the map, the ceiling, I'm not gonna say as one hundred and
• 47:47
  thirty one point ceiling. I guess he does. I guess almost anyone does
• 47:51
  in MMA. I don't see like the ten takedowns like gam Rot and all
• 47:55
  of that, et cetera. But man, like you said, a couple
• 48:00
  downs on the table, first round submission on the table, what if he
• 48:01
  gets a first round submission with like a minute left, I mean that could
• 48:05
  easily be one oh eight with some strike something like that. I think one
• 48:08
  oh eight is good enough on this card. And then looking at ownership kind
• 48:12
  of like you mentioned, I'm not gonna say it out loud again, I
• 48:15
  said it'd be premium members. It's important. But he's definitely gonna be lower
• 48:20
  owned than Mike Davis. He's gonna be lower owned than Kennedy. Now he
• 48:22
  will be higher on than chas on Yourgoria Kooliboo, et cetera. But just
• 48:28
  in that upper nine k range, you at least know he's not gonna be
• 48:31
  He's gonna be at least a third or four ties. I think him and
• 48:34
  Thiagra Moyce's will be pretty close. So if you go Kennedy lineups and you
• 48:38
  save the three hundred and GM three outscores them, you know you will have
• 48:43
  eliminate a lot of dupes and stuff like that. So I'll be using GM
• 48:45
  three in the way like that. If Barberina wins, I think he's probably
• 48:51
  on the optimal Like even though he's at one eighty five, the duke can
• 48:54
  still strike. He still throws good volume. GM three is not like a
• 48:59
  great striker by any means. I mean he's been he's been shut off.
• 49:02
  His lights have been shut off a couple of times on the Tamaiah fight for
• 49:07
  sure. I mean one hit and just dead barbarina with the volume. If
• 49:10
  GM three can't get tight downs, I think he's live to put it on
• 49:14
  him, keeping on the feet, and he's gonna be low owned as a
• 49:16
  dog too, So definitely mixing in some barberena. I think GM three,
• 49:21
  though, is the rightful favorite, does get the job done, and he'll
• 49:25
  be lower on the Kennedy and Mike Davis, so I'll definitely have some up
• 49:28
  top to get different. But again, I don't love like if I had
• 49:30
  a pick in a vacuum, how would you rank Kennedy, Moysis, Mike
• 49:35
  Davis, GM three, pretending prices don't matter, preten ownership does though,
• 49:39
  man probably Kennedy first, if owner, I mean, if ownership doesn't matter,
• 49:47
  I would probably just go in line with the odds. Kennedy, Davis,
• 49:52
  Moysis, mear Sharp. Yeah, but definitely it's going to be better.
• 49:57
  I'm completely fine flipping that whole thing. Well, yeah, fair enough.
• 50:01
  I still got Kennedy one, Davis two, I don't know, Voyses
• 50:07
  and GM three are pretty tough, maybe like I like voices more and the
• 50:13
  upside more, but the two hundred dollars maybe GM three. It's definitely Kennedy
• 50:15
  Mike Davis for me up top though, That's how I see it. But
• 50:19
  yeah, hey UFC. Two UFC vets making the walk. Wouldn't be surprised
• 50:22
  to see if this was the last Brian Barbarina fight in the UFC, though.
• 50:28
  Next fight on the car Macy Chase on Panny can Said Chase on minus
• 50:31
  two twenty Panny plus one eighty five. It's fight the most likely to go
• 50:37
  the distance on the card at plus two fifty all the Finnish equity on the
• 50:40
  chasing side plus two fifty inside the distance Panny plus twelve hundred fights a rematch
• 50:47
  from years and years and years ago. Chason gets a second round submission.
• 50:52
  I mean my quick breakdown this ahead is a full fade. You change my
• 50:58
  coolie bow. I changed from fade to under I changed her from underweight to
• 51:01
  fade. Koolibao. I changed Chason from fade to underweight, and I'll keep
• 51:05
  her in the pool. And I'm happy you did that because even when I
• 51:07
  was typing it up and stuff, like Jason has upside. We have seen
• 51:13
  it multiple times, more so earlier in her career than as of late,
• 51:15
  but she's been wrestling more as of late. I think she can take Panny
• 51:20
  down, you know, even if she's against defence controlling her that counts as
• 51:23
  well. I mean, Panny just isn't good at the end of the day.
• 51:27
  I don't really know what else to say. She has no pop takedown
• 51:30
  defense isn't good. Like Jason has plenty of outs here for a big score
• 51:34
  at pretty low ownership in this nine K range. So yeah, I'm glad
• 51:38
  you change it. I'll have no Kooliboo all of some of my koliboo ownership
• 51:43
  to Chiason. It's not that I love her much, but in Chalky lineups
• 51:46
  is when I'll be playing Chiason. In lineups, I'm already different or have
• 51:50
  some leverage or left a lot of salary. Of course, I like Mike
• 51:52
  Davis, Kennedy, those guys more in the vacuum personally, But how do
• 51:57
  you see this fight? Yeah? I don't love it, but I could
• 52:02
  make a case for either side. Uh. These two fought before, like
• 52:07
  in the Tough finale to get into the UFC basically Chasing choked out kean Zad
• 52:14
  in the second round. She had like five minutes of control time in that
• 52:16
  fight, but with zero takedowns. In the first round. It was Kanzad
• 52:23
  went for a takedown, Chasing stuffed it, took her back. That's how
• 52:27
  she got the control time there, and then in the second round Chasing dropped
• 52:30
  her. So, I mean, how much you value it that that fight
• 52:35
  that many years ago. I mean, both these girls have had so many
• 52:37
  fights since then, so kind of like a good amount. I feel like
• 52:44
  they're not that much bad. I feel like they both improved where there's not
• 52:46
  like a big edge on either side from what they've recently done. But I
• 52:52
  give Chasing the grappling edge. And if Kanzad's gonna win, it would be
• 52:55
  a striking match. I'm not sure she's the better striker, but that that's
• 53:00
  where she would need to win. But when Kanzad wins, she scores seventy
• 53:02
  two to eighty one points, I would expect that here really even low.
• 53:07
  I would expect her to be lower than seventy two rather than over eighty one.
• 53:12
  But on the Chasing side, if she had you know, a couple
• 53:15
  of takedowns like she just wasn't successful with her takedowns, and that's what makes
• 53:19
  me not like her at nine K in this fight, because I don't trust
• 53:22
  her to go out there and be able to land the three to six takedowns
• 53:25
  like she has in her last two fights. If she can do that at
• 53:29
  low ownership, though, then we're talking. I mean, she scored one
• 53:34
  hundred and two in their last fight. She scored over one hundred and four
• 53:37
  other UFC wins as well, so she does have a ceiling. But the
• 53:40
  way I see this fight playing out is that we probably get ten minutes a
• 53:45
  striking time and maybe Mason gets two takedowns. I don't think that. No.
• 53:51
  Actually, Kyanzad was taking down three times in her last fight. That's
• 53:53
  the most she's ever been taken down in a UFC fight, So I feel
• 53:57
  like three takedowns is probably the ceiling for Macy here. And if she's gonna
• 54:02
  win a decision like Vegas expects, then I don't think she scores enough points.
• 54:07
  So on paper, it looks like Macy's gonna go out there score eighty
• 54:10
  points and win the fight, but not be on the optimal lineup. But
• 54:15
  if she's gonna be so much less on than all these other people, then
• 54:19
  I'm interested. That's the ownership that's talking me into Macy, just the ownership
• 54:22
  alone. But she could go out there and score one hundred and two points
• 54:24
  again, I wouldn't be too shocked. It's just that I don't expect it.
• 54:29
  Yeah, you couldn't say anymore Again, I had this fad or this
• 54:31
  fight as a fade. Initially, Panny's never scored more than eighty one.
• 54:36
  Like, I think we get some dogs on this card, at least one,
• 54:39
  and like, if the dogs I want to play, at least want
• 54:42
  them to have some bit of upside. It feels like Panny's got nothing,
• 54:45
  So I got no interest there. But like you said, yeah, I
• 54:46
  mean you go through the game logs of Macy, she's been wrestling more.
• 54:51
  You look at her ownership, especially in a card that the nine K range
• 54:54
  is very concentrated, especially between two guys Mike Davis and Kennedy and Trockey lineups.
• 55:01
  If I'm playing O'Day osborne, if I'm playing Dulgarian, if I'm playing
• 55:04
  the main event, stuff like that, you eventually need to get a lower
• 55:07
  own option, leave money et cetera. That's all I'll be using Macy do
• 55:10
  I love it? No, and a handbild. It's pretty tough to click.
• 55:14
  I get it. But yeah, that's how you win all the cheese.
• 55:17
  Instead of holding hands with everyone. Plays like that can win you all
• 55:21
  the cheese. I do think Macy has the upside there. What's going on?
• 55:23
  Low Wolf? Glad to have you man. Of course you don't got
• 55:27
  to be sorry for being late. Wolf of ball Street saying hi to his
• 55:30
  cousin. There you go. A couple of fights left on the car.
• 55:32
  Big Marley again still appreciate everyone hanging out with us, almost approaching an hour
• 55:37
  talking some UFC Apex. Don't love the Apex fights. I will admit that,
• 55:43
  but four fights, laugh Big Marley. I think Dulgary and Christian Rodriguez
• 55:45
  minus one eighty seven is Dulgarian plus one sixty two is c Rod minus one
• 55:51
  thirty for this fight to finish Dulgarian plus one to fifty inside the distance see
• 55:55
  Rod plus three fifty. How about Rodriguez for the upset? Mister Warte says,
• 56:00
  I hope not, because I'm on the Dulgarian side. However, I
• 56:05
  think Rodriguez makes a lot of sense as leverage because Dulgarian's gonna get ownership.
• 56:09
  Eighty five hundred has taken money throughout the week. Everyone's gonna see six and
• 56:14
  oh all first round finishes wrestling for days just dominated Francis Marshall, like everything
• 56:21
  is going for him see rout. On the other hand, two though,
• 56:23
  like Raul Rostas junior, stop that hight train. Cameron Simon said that hight
• 56:29
  train like he's he's getting the job done. Young kid. He definitely can
• 56:35
  can pull it off here. I will say he is coming up away class
• 56:37
  though to one forty five, which I don't love. Made his day UFC
• 56:40
  debut at one five on short notice against Jonathan Pierce. Made a good account
• 56:45
  himself there. Definitely impressed me. Went to one thirty five as normal way
• 56:50
  class, but it's struggled on the scale, so they're moving up to one
• 56:52
  forty five, which I don't love in this one. But yeah, I
• 56:55
  mean I'm on Dulgarian. I think he has all the upside in the world.
• 56:59
  I think even if you leave like somehow you go for this might be
• 57:02
  a little extreme, but a Kennedy lineup to Dulgarian like they have very similar
• 57:07
  upside, so I don't think that's crazy about any means of shows how strong
• 57:09
  of it play. He is an eighty five hundred and then he's gonna be
• 57:14
  popular. So that's just why of interest in Sea Rod. I think he
• 57:16
  loses. I don't love guys that going against primary wrestlers, like he could
• 57:21
  spend minutes off his back and still win and not score enough. So I
• 57:23
  want some fades of this fight. But direct leverage is clear as day on
• 57:28
  the Sea road side pus Thy fifty inside. The distance isn't bad, and
• 57:31
  I mean, at the end of the day, you're talking at seventy seven
• 57:34
  hundred fighter. He's got all the talent in the world, so yeah,
• 57:37
  good fight to target. I'm on the Dulgarian side though, for sure.
• 57:43
  Yeah, I mean it's hard not to want to pick Dulgarian. All I've
• 57:46
  seen from him is just going out there and dominate, dominating people on the
• 57:51
  ground and finishing everybody in the first round. This is definitely his toughest fight
• 57:58
  to date though. I just sent you my little write up on this if
• 58:01
  you want to show it. But this is one where it's like I feel
• 58:07
  like I need to be heavy on Dulgarian because like he might be him.
• 58:12
  You know what I'm saying, he could just be a title contender in the
• 58:15
  next year or two because of what we've seen is just all magnificent. We
• 58:19
  haven't seen any flaws from this kid yet, but he hasn't been pasted the
• 58:22
  first round and Rodriguez just coming off of two wins against really hyped up prospects.
• 58:28
  This is the prospect killer and Rodriguez is good everywhere. So I feel
• 58:31
  like Rodriguez is gonna have the striking edge in this one and after round one,
• 58:37
  like, I'm not confident Dulgarian is the better wrestler. H So,
• 58:42
  the way I put it is, I just changed this to a five star
• 58:45
  ranking, which I'm gonna be heavy on this fight. It'll be in the
• 58:47
  most of my lineups, but I put Dulgarian as the four star and Rodriguez
• 58:52
  as the two because, like, I probably go out there and I get
• 58:57
  Dulgarian in fifty percent of my lineup something like that. Because he's only eighty
• 59:00
  five hundred. He scored one hundred and twenty two in his debut fight.
• 59:04
  I could definitely see him going out there and scoring one hundred and twenty two
• 59:07
  here, so I want a lot of him. But after round one,
• 59:10
  man, I don't know what this guy's gonna look like, and Rodriguez could
• 59:14
  be better everywhere. If Doulgarian slows down, Rodriguez could really put a beating
• 59:17
  on him, especially if he's laying takedowns himself against a gast out Dulgarian,
• 59:23
  and Rodriguez could score one hundred plus points even if he drops the first round.
• 59:28
  So I'm just gonna load up on this fight. I'll probably have fifty
• 59:31
  percent Dulgarian, but that's gonna put me close to the field on him and
• 59:36
  Rodriguez. I'm not sure where I put his own ship. You guys could
• 59:38
  check it out over a ship in nation dot com. But if he's gonna
• 59:42
  be let's say, fifteen percent owned, I'm fine doubling up the field and
• 59:45
  going thirty percent on Rodriguez, because not only is that gonna get me double
• 59:50
  the field, but it would also kill out close to fifty percent of the
• 59:52
  field who are on Dulgarian. So I might have this fight in eighty five
• 59:59
  or more percent of my lineups, but from what I've seen, it's just
• 1:00:05
  so hard to pass up on Dulgarian right now, so he's gonna be the
• 1:00:07
  pick. If I'm making one lineup on this whole slate, I would rather
• 1:00:10
  have him in it because I don't want to have two points from Rodriguez and
• 1:00:15
  in the end of it. So yeah, give me Dulgaryan. I hope
• 1:00:17
  he does keep impressing, because sky's the limit for this kid. Yeah no,
• 1:00:22
  I mean, yeah, the thing, the one concern people will talk
• 1:00:25
  about six and oh all six first round finishes. How does he look at
• 1:00:30
  the gets outside? Who knows at the end of the day. But what
• 1:00:31
  I do know is he trains f Factory X in Colorado at elevation and the
• 1:00:37
  dude has wrestled his whole life. So I mean those two things usually need
• 1:00:39
  pretty solid cardio. Now, of course, you can have a cardio dump
• 1:00:44
  not pace yourself plenty of ways where it fails, but at elevation, dude
• 1:00:49
  looks like a stud and he's wrestled his whole life. Like I think this
• 1:00:52
  guy has to have cardio, especially if he just wants to wrestle like that's
• 1:00:54
  I mean, he can wrestle for hours on end, you think at the
• 1:01:00
  Jim, So yeah, I'm not worried as much about the Carlos maybe some.
• 1:01:04
  I just love the Dogaryan side. Like the upside's huge see Rod for
• 1:01:07
  leverage. Dulgarians the pick, though I would not stack this fight with thirteen
• 1:01:10
  fights, and especially like the if with all the takes on the Vulgary side,
• 1:01:15
  would you could you stack this? I mean that means c Rod would
• 1:01:19
  just be off his back pretty much the whole time, So I wouldn't like
• 1:01:22
  the upside as much. There eighty five seventy seven hundred like at that point,
• 1:01:25
  I'd rather just punt with Mitro Ramirez or something and hope you get forty
• 1:01:30
  in a loss, rather than I think you would need in a loss Bulgarian
• 1:01:34
  to be the underdog for a stack to work. Dolgarian goes out there,
• 1:01:37
  lands eight takedowns and loses the fight. But if he loses the fight with
• 1:01:40
  eight takedowns, he's not gonna make it as the favorite. I don't think
• 1:01:43
  so. Yeah, no, no, that makes sense. I wouldn't stack
• 1:01:45
  though. Three fights left this one very quick for me. Kennedy Nije Najek.
• 1:01:51
  Why say it? Say it, Marley, say the last name Kennedy
• 1:01:57
  and check in Kennedy and Chuku and Chuku that's it, one hundred percent,
• 1:02:01
  that's it. I had to hear it. Kennedy natruk Wu taking on OSP
• 1:02:06
  as some might have butchered it minus four hundred this fight to finish, hold
• 1:02:09
  on minus f under for this fight to finish on bet online, and Kennedy's
• 1:02:14
  minus four seventy five. So again, always sometimes books do this where they
• 1:02:19
  have something that just absolutely makes no sense like this. If you think Kennedy
• 1:02:22
  wins inside the distance, just bet this fight to finish at minus four hundred
• 1:02:25
  over minus four seventy five for him as an individual OSP plus nine hundred Kennedy,
• 1:02:31
  I will say in round one as well, plus one point fifteen in
• 1:02:35
  this fight. I'm glad you're laughing. G Kaifer trying to trying to make
• 1:02:38
  your day better with with some of this stuff, with some of these butcher
• 1:02:43
  names. Easy fights, though, Big Maarley, we already talked enough about
• 1:02:45
  Kennedy OSP sucks OSP right now in his career. Sucks should have retired years
• 1:02:52
  ago. I mean, when Felipe lou Linza starting you in a minute,
• 1:02:55
  that is not great at all. So yeah, this line's right. Al
• 1:03:00
  Whispy's way over the hill, probably his last fight in the UFC, doesn't
• 1:03:02
  throw any volume. Yeah, of course he can clip Kennedy like, that's
• 1:03:07
  what he has to do. He just has to hit him with a shot.
• 1:03:08
  He has power. Kennedy has been rocked. But yeah, puncher's chance
• 1:03:13
  for everyone. There'll be no puncher's chance with olsp in my lineup though,
• 1:03:16
  So if you got the money, the team makes sense, play Kennedy.
• 1:03:21
  Just yeah, be careful how you play him, is all I got.
• 1:03:24
  Yeah, I mean I agree. I would actually rather waste five percent of
• 1:03:28
  my lineups on OSP than like miss Ramirez, but I'm probably gonna en up
• 1:03:32
  fading OSP two. But yeah, like Kennedy, the only issue is ninety
• 1:03:37
  four hundred dollars. I'm fine with any of the guy's price below him.
• 1:03:42
  But as I mentioned, if price and ownership doesn't matter, then give me
• 1:03:45
  Kennedy because I think he gets a first round knockout here. He's minus four
• 1:03:49
  hundred inside the distance. All the other books are closer to minus six hundred
• 1:03:52
  on the fight being my inside the distance, so definitely play shot. Yeah,
• 1:03:57
  I always go ahead bet online. I think it's the one of the
• 1:04:00
  sharpest books out there for MMA, but definitely make sure and they get their
• 1:04:03
  lines up early. That's why I think so, because they take the earliest
• 1:04:06
  action in most places. Definitely pribace shot though in MMA, like all sports,
• 1:04:12
  and any any finish from Kennedy, whether second or third round, could
• 1:04:17
  be enough for him. He could still score over one hundred points with the
• 1:04:20
  second or third round knockout, but I think if it's a first round knockout,
• 1:04:25
  it's gonna be hard to kick this guy off the optim line. I
• 1:04:28
  would think he's scoring over one hundred and five if he gets a first round
• 1:04:30
  knockout and he is last I looked, he was plus one fifteen to win
• 1:04:35
  in round one, So my plan in my head is to match his round
• 1:04:42
  one, not match make my minimum his round one. So plus one fifteen
• 1:04:50
  right now, that's like right right below fifty percent. It's forty six and
• 1:04:55
  a half percent. So maybe I put minimum forty six and a half percent
• 1:04:58
  on the solver. But then I'd also be fine getting up to like sixty
• 1:05:01
  seventy percent Kennedy and he could get a quick win bonus too. He could
• 1:05:05
  go out there and get a forty second knockout and then he's on the optimal
• 1:05:10
  lineup, so I'm gonna be heavy on him. The only thing is,
• 1:05:13
  I'm fine putting Moistest in a Kennedy lineup. I'm fine putting Davis in the
• 1:05:17
  Kennedy lineup' put I'm fine putting Meershar in a Kennedy lineup. So that might
• 1:05:23
  take me down to like my minimum exposure, but I'm still gonna have probably
• 1:05:28
  forty five plus percent Kennedy in my lineups. But if I have forty five
• 1:05:31
  percent, I might still be underweight to the field. So I don't know.
• 1:05:35
  Maybe maybe my preferred play is to get away from him, hope that
• 1:05:39
  he get he respects OSP a little bit too much, doesn't land a lot
• 1:05:43
  of volume, knocks him out in the second round, and doesn't get there
• 1:05:45
  ownership wise. That's probably what I think I would want, But I haven't
• 1:05:49
  built lineup shts. I'm not sure I built one shell lineup in Kennedy.
• 1:05:53
  I'm pretty sure he's in it, so we'll see how it goes. But
• 1:05:56
  on the solver, I would be fine if it gives me a little bit
• 1:05:59
  more, or like if I end up with like forty five percent mere Sharp
• 1:06:02
  and I'm doubling the field on him. I'm not completely against that. Yeah,
• 1:06:06
  I mean I if I loved everything and I had one hundred percent Kennedy
• 1:06:11
  and I felt good about all my teams, I'd obviously play it. I
• 1:06:14
  don't think that'll be the case. Again. I try and I try and
• 1:06:18
  not hold hands with like seventy people, Kennedy will be the highest owned player
• 1:06:21
  or the fighter on the slate. So if I'm playing one hundred lines or
• 1:06:25
  something, finding one hundred good Kennedy teams a little tougher for me, but
• 1:06:29
  I want plenty of them. I mean, he has all the upside in
• 1:06:30
  the world. I think OSP sucks. I will say, because it's still
• 1:06:34
  fresh in that from last week. There's nothing worse big Marlea than a fricking
• 1:06:38
  three or a one minute and one second finish. I'll just say there's nothing
• 1:06:43
  worse than missing that bonus. Just like back in the day before they changed
• 1:06:45
  the bonus, there was nothing worse when I do it on out there and
• 1:06:48
  started them in ten seconds and you somehow get outscored by like a war that
• 1:06:53
  went the distance and stuff like that. So yeah, people are gonna complain
• 1:06:57
  regardless. I think DK got it right the minute bonus, but yeah,
• 1:07:00
  I mean it's total. When he missed that shit by a second, I
• 1:07:03
  will milliseconds. I will say that bon flu choke coming. I hope not.
• 1:07:08
  I definitely hope not. Two fights a lot big Marley, two solid
• 1:07:12
  fights, interesting comin event though Brian Battle one LUSA minus one eighty three Brian
• 1:07:17
  Battle plus one fifty eight on LUSA fights plus one ten to finish, and
• 1:07:23
  I will say this fight open plus one sixty inside the distance, So money
• 1:07:26
  has been coming in on the under Brian Battle plus Wow, he's taking plenty
• 1:07:30
  of money even of yesterday. Plus one sixty five inside the distance now one
• 1:07:35
  LUSA plus five hundred, So I'll say I had this fight, I'm picking
• 1:07:40
  one LUSA. He's definitely my I mean, I'm picking the dog to win.
• 1:07:44
  Of course, he's my preferred play for one thousand less. I mean
• 1:07:47
  he's very durable, which is part of the reason I Brian Battle's underweight.
• 1:07:53
  But man, this inside the distance prop coming down to plus one sixty five
• 1:07:57
  at eighty five hundred, and I do think his ownership will still be with
• 1:08:00
  Dulgarian right there and stuff, So I might actually change and get a little
• 1:08:03
  more Brian. Battle on us is still my preferred play though, because I
• 1:08:06
  think striking is close. Battle's been susceptible to takedowns on LUs is starting to
• 1:08:13
  wrestle more. Volume is still there in one twenty four fifteen in his last
• 1:08:16
  two fights at seventy six hundred, I mean the flour is pretty high.
• 1:08:20
  It looks plus one ten for this fight to finish, so expect to go
• 1:08:24
  to distance volume takedowns high four high ceiling at seventy six hundred as I see
• 1:08:30
  it. So yeah, I'm on the dog here, But yeah, talk
• 1:08:32
  to me your thoughts because the battle inside the distance prop moving is definitely interesting,
• 1:08:38
  and I had it underweight, but I might change that. I mean,
• 1:08:43
  yeah, maybe that battle's probably more dangerous, I would think, but
• 1:08:45
  I mean I don't, I don't know, but loose is so durable,
• 1:08:53
  So I really have a hard time seeing battle get a finish in this one.
• 1:08:56
  And I do think this is really close to a pick them fight,
• 1:08:59
  am I opinion? So I'm definitely on the underdog in this one. Lusa
• 1:09:02
  can strike at a high pace, he's got power to and he can mix
• 1:09:06
  in wrestling, and he scored one hundred and fifteen and one hundred and twenty
• 1:09:09
  four, both in decisions. That's that's what I like to see. So
• 1:09:14
  I think he's he's live to go out there and get six plus takedowns in
• 1:09:18
  this fight and still score one hundred plus in a decision. It also wouldn't
• 1:09:21
  completely shock me if LUSA went out there and got a knockout or submission.
• 1:09:26
  So I mean, I guess I'd be more surprised by a submission, but
• 1:09:29
  he'd go out there and knock out Battle. But I expect this fight to
• 1:09:31
  go the distance. Vegas expects this fight to go the distance. If the
• 1:09:35
  fight goes the distance, it's gonna be hard to for Battle to pay off
• 1:09:39
  an eighty six hundred dollars price tag, and it won't be that hard for
• 1:09:43
  LUSA to do it. So I will for sure be overweight to LUSA,
• 1:09:45
  and I will be underweight to Battle. There's like three or four underdogs on
• 1:09:51
  this card who who I'm picking to win, and if I'm not picking them
• 1:09:55
  to win, I think they have a high ceiling. I'm just gonna be
• 1:09:57
  overweight on my underdogs, hoping that I'm right, and then I'll mix in
• 1:10:00
  a bunch of favorites, my favorite Kennedy lineup. Hopefully I'll have that same
• 1:10:04
  lineup with Moises. Hopefully I'll have that same lineup with Davis and Meershark and
• 1:10:09
  Sheason'm like, that's how I can see it going in my head, but
• 1:10:12
  who knows. I haven't built lineup yet, but this is one where I
• 1:10:15
  see me going overweight to the underdog. He could possibly even be my favorite
• 1:10:19
  underdog on the card. And then Battle, I want to fade him,
• 1:10:24
  to be honest with you, but if he does get a finish, then
• 1:10:27
  maybe we need him, So I'm not gonna x him out. I'll just
• 1:10:30
  be underweight. I'm definitely gonna keep keep Battle underweight after what you said,
• 1:10:36
  but I definitely I'm not gonna x him like plus one sixty five, even
• 1:10:40
  if I got like twenty five even thirty percent Battle, And I loved everything
• 1:10:45
  else in my script because eighty six hundred, you know dal Gerian's eighty five
• 1:10:49
  hundred, and then you know the main events are gonna be owned heavily.
• 1:10:54
  We'll get to that eighty three seventy nine, and then people wanted Kennedy or
• 1:10:59
  Mike Davis or something like his that ownership has to be and Lucia's I don't
• 1:11:02
  think we're the only ones saying this about Lucia too, Like I think people
• 1:11:04
  will see the game logs, etc. So I do think LUSA gets some
• 1:11:08
  ownership as a dog one of the more popular ones, which makes Battle even
• 1:11:13
  more interesting there. So yeah, I'm gonna play some Battle, but LUSA
• 1:11:16
  is my preferred play. Am I pick in this fight for sure? But
• 1:11:18
  I have more interest in Battle now than I did coming into the show,
• 1:11:24
  and a lot of it has to do with the inside the distance prop and
• 1:11:27
  of course where he is priced. Last fight on the car. Big Marley
• 1:11:30
  still got people hanging in there watching hour eleven in. We appreciate every single
• 1:11:34
  one of you. If you're watching on playback, appreciate you guys as well.
• 1:11:38
  What's going on? Raven hit that like hit that subscribe, always appreciate
• 1:11:42
  And of course you want to join us. You want all of our MMA
• 1:11:45
  contents, rejections, ownership, fight rankings, fight breakdown. I just put
• 1:11:48
  that Dulgarian one on the screen. Get a little sneak peek at what Big
• 1:11:53
  Marley has to offer. Everything you need, NBA, MMA and MBA,
• 1:11:58
  NHL, NAST car PGA soon to the MLB, head over to the nation.
• 1:12:03
  Use that promo code Masters fifteen fifteen percent off main event, Tom Big
• 1:12:09
  Marley, the Big Boys, pretty much a coin flip. Tie two we
• 1:12:13
  Vasa Marsine ty Bura, depending on where you look like DraftKings minus one fifteen
• 1:12:17
  minus one oh five, Tie bet Online minus one and seventeen minus one oh
• 1:12:21
  three ties A slight favorite is the consensus right now. This fight is minus
• 1:12:28
  one thousand to finish. Tie two we Vasa minus one fifteen inside the distance,
• 1:12:32
  Marsine Tibera plus one fifteen. Ownership is gonna be pretty close. Let's
• 1:12:39
  see what we have right now. I'll say it out loud because it is
• 1:12:43
  important. Forty six and forty four, so we pretty much have a straight
• 1:12:45
  pick them. I agree with that. There the four hundred dollars difference from
• 1:12:49
  ty Burra with the pretty close money line has its ownership even higher. Like
• 1:12:55
  earlier in the week when Tie was around minus one twenty five, I thought
• 1:12:58
  we could see like a fort or something like that Tie Way, bigger name,
• 1:13:03
  the power, et cetera. But with this line and the pricing,
• 1:13:06
  yeah, I think people are just gonna click. That's tiber name a little
• 1:13:10
  bit, even without the way less name value. I like gun to my
• 1:13:15
  head, I'm picking Tie because of the power. I don't feel confident in
• 1:13:19
  about it one bit DFS though. I think I've been at more Tyburra and
• 1:13:24
  it's mainly for the reason build a Tie team, take Tie out, go
• 1:13:28
  Tibera, and you're hardly giving up anything, Like you're giving him what fifteen
• 1:13:31
  cents fourteen cents on the money line, like, So that's my thought process
• 1:13:35
  all game theory. I don't really have much to break down the flight.
• 1:13:39
  I think the low kicks will be money for tire Ely. The power is
• 1:13:42
  definitely on Tie. The longer the fight though, goes I favorite ty Burra.
• 1:13:46
  If this fight hits the map, Tibera or Tie is going to be
• 1:13:49
  in a world of trouble because I think it'll be Tibera on top. Does
• 1:13:53
  he just hold him against the fence like it's a smaller cage. I think
• 1:13:56
  that probably benefits Tibera. So yeah, I can go break down that stuff
• 1:14:00
  game theory, wife though, ownership pretty much a coin flip for further four
• 1:14:03
  hundred and staves with Tybera because you can do more with the roster. What
• 1:14:06
  you got, Yeah, I think my plan is just to be completely all
• 1:14:12
  in on this fight. One hundred percent of my lineups will have it.
• 1:14:15
  It's minus one thousand to end inside the distance, so it's a ninety percent
• 1:14:18
  chance that it ends early. But I mean, even in a ty Bura
• 1:14:21
  decision win, he could make the optimal So I think I just want to
• 1:14:26
  lock it in. I want to make a rule. One of these fighters
• 1:14:28
  is in every single one of my lineups. I think it's either a first
• 1:14:32
  or a second round knockout from Tuivasa, or I think tyed Bura finishes them.
• 1:14:40
  Maybe after that. I do have one of these guys in my core
• 1:14:45
  plays over there at shipittnation dot com, though, so you can figure out
• 1:14:48
  which side I think that's gonna happen. But either way, I think you
• 1:14:50
  should load up on this fight. If you think Tuivasa is gonna win,
• 1:14:55
  maybe get sixty sixty percent to Evasa, go forty percent ty Bora. If
• 1:15:00
  you think Tybora is gonna win, maybe do the opposite. But I think
• 1:15:03
  this will be on the optimal lineup. I think we're gonna score one hundred
• 1:15:08
  plus from whoever it is and their priced right there in the mid range.
• 1:15:12
  So I feel I mean not strongly. I don't really feel like I know
• 1:15:17
  who's gonna win the fight. I just feel strongly that it's gonna be on
• 1:15:19
  the optimal lineup, and then my exposure will kind of feel strongly over there
• 1:15:25
  over at ship in nation dot com. So go check it out. We
• 1:15:28
  got all the sports we've been crushing. All the sports discord is on fire.
• 1:15:31
  So I hope to see you guys over there. But good luck to
• 1:15:33
  you title, good luck to everybody listening. Let's ship it. Yeah,
• 1:15:36
  yeah, let's run a little better than last week. I have not looked
• 1:15:40
  at any price picks. I'll say it from the top. I only play
• 1:15:44
  DFS MMA. I'm in sports betted sometimes I live bet. I think live
• 1:15:47
  betting MMA is the biggest edge out there in terms of sports betting any sports.
• 1:15:54
  But yeah, I don't do prize picks, So I'm not gonna say
• 1:15:57
  so I can get enough action to DFS that I like is reason for that,
• 1:16:00
  So I'm not gonna say something. I don't play. Last thing,
• 1:16:02
  though, Steven is a rule talking about how much money can be left on
• 1:16:05
  the table in MMA. No, it's slate dependant, in my opinion,
• 1:16:10
  is how I approach it. There's been winners that I've left twenty five hundred
• 1:16:14
  on the table. There's like you can definitely leave a lot. I don't
• 1:16:16
  usually leave that much. When it gets like the twenty five hundred that I
• 1:16:20
  leave, it's like a short notice. Someone that was priced as a dog
• 1:16:25
  is now the favorite in pricing all that, I think a general rule maybe
• 1:16:30
  fifteen hundred, twelve hundred, thirteen hundred maybe, but yeah, no strong
• 1:16:34
  rule. I mess around the builds, handbuilt and stuff, and then see
• 1:16:39
  where you feel comfortable with. Like today, I always look at like the
• 1:16:43
  favorite. Where can I drop off from the favorite to the dog and feel
• 1:16:45
  good? The biggest gap was Filo and ode Osbourne today at eighty seven and
• 1:16:50
  seventy five. So probably twelve hundred is where I max it as a general
• 1:16:56
  rule. But yeah, that's what I got. Good stuff, Marley,
• 1:16:59
  good breakdown. As always, I'm going I'm always late. I'm gonna try
• 1:17:01
  and shorten these up, just as little tab bit for you because you got
• 1:17:04
  to pick up your kid. I know it. Good luck everybody out there.
• 1:17:08
  Let's ship something. Let's ship something. Big Answers fifteen fifteen percent off
• 1:17:12
  head of the Nation. Check it out for Big Marley. I'm titled Town.
• 1:17:15
  Good luck this week and be safe, have good let many monsted,
• 1:18:03
  many mons,