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Friday BEST BETS | I Hate Everything | NBA Playoffs & NHL Playoffs & MLB | 5/1/26 · Toadstool Sports

0:16
Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm man, a.
0:19
Speaker 2: Hole in your checks, the black coffee on the felt Man,
0:23
Speaker 2: you look like a mist three teen Parlette turned the
0:27
Speaker 2: dust in your head. Now you stare at the chips
0:31
Speaker 2: like they made you this man. But don't you go quiet?
0:35
Speaker 2: Don't you fade from the floor. Your name steal means
0:39
Speaker 2: something on somebody for show. Put the glass down, baby,
0:45
Speaker 2: look at me.
0:46
Speaker 3: No, hold on, hold on, nothing nice now, hold on,
1:00
Speaker 3: hold on and me.
1:10
Speaker 1: But it all get the crown, hold on, hold on,
1:18
Speaker 1: stay with me.
1:19
Speaker 4: Now, what's up? Burrobod? It's towed back with you with
1:29
Speaker 4: Toadstool Sports. It is Friday, May first, This is the
1:34
Speaker 4: first of May. I did a you cover of that song.
1:37
Speaker 4: By the way, maybe I'll retweet it because I think
1:40
Speaker 4: it is out there somewhere. Horrible day on the show yesterday.
1:44
Speaker 4: Horrible day for me personally. I'm surprised I'm not dead
1:49
Speaker 4: right now. I don't even know what to tell you
1:53
Speaker 4: about Houston. In the first game, of course, they won
1:55
Speaker 4: the second game easily, So isn't that right, Lance McCullers,
1:58
Speaker 4: isn't that great? I mean, Lance, the Colors actually pitched well.
2:01
Speaker 4: First game. It was looking to be trending in the
2:04
Speaker 4: right direction. We get into the fourth inning, Peter Lambert,
2:07
Speaker 4: I think hadn't a lot of hit at that point,
2:09
Speaker 4: and Houston had three hits in the game but hadn't scored.
2:13
Speaker 4: So usaid played better in that game than what the
2:16
Speaker 4: score looked. But then the game started unraveling a little bit.
2:20
Speaker 4: They a looted a couple of runs and then that
2:22
Speaker 4: was it. And you look at that game. They lost
2:24
Speaker 4: the game ten to five, but they outhit Baltimore twelve
2:28
Speaker 4: to six in the game. When do you ever see
2:31
Speaker 4: a team? Or ten to three was the final. Excuse me,
2:33
Speaker 4: when do you ever see a team? I mean, scoring
2:36
Speaker 4: three runs on twelve hits is ridiculous enough. But on
2:39
Speaker 4: the other side of things, Baltimore in that game scored
2:43
Speaker 4: ten runs on six hits. You almost never see anything
2:48
Speaker 4: like that. I don't think that the score was really
2:50
Speaker 4: indicative of what happened in that game. Bassett did pitch
2:54
Speaker 4: better than I thought he would, though, so that was
2:56
Speaker 4: one thing that definitely was not in our favor. The
2:59
Speaker 4: boss is Celtics can eat my fucking ass. I don't
3:03
Speaker 4: know what to even tell you. Jason Tatum injured again,
3:06
Speaker 4: calf injury. He's just done. He was gone in the
3:10
Speaker 4: third quarter. Never came back. At that point. The Celtics
3:14
Speaker 4: obviously had a chance to win the game. They looked
3:17
Speaker 4: okay early in the game. They just needed to get
3:19
Speaker 4: the game trending in the right direction. But no, so
3:22
Speaker 4: now we're gonna have to deal with another fucking Game seven.
3:26
Speaker 4: In the Joe Mizula era, by the way, the Celtics
3:28
Speaker 4: have only lost three games in a row. I don't know,
3:31
Speaker 4: like a handful of times in that many years. I
3:34
Speaker 4: think it's never happened in the playoffs before. And I
3:39
Speaker 4: mean the trends were in the right like the trends
3:42
Speaker 4: all supported the play yesterday too. Like the Joe Mizula
3:46
Speaker 4: era of the Celtics off of a playoff loss were
3:49
Speaker 4: six and one straight up, winning those games by an
3:52
Speaker 4: average margin of thirteen points. It's fucking ridiculous if they
3:56
Speaker 4: lose another series. They've never lost the series in his
4:00
Speaker 4: tenure when they were up three to one. Actually, I
4:02
Speaker 4: believe the Celtics in their history have never lost a
4:06
Speaker 4: series when they were up three to one. It's never
4:08
Speaker 4: happened in the history of the Celtics. They have not
4:11
Speaker 4: blown a three to one lead. Joe Miszula might have
4:14
Speaker 4: to get fired, dude, Like, yeah, he did some really
4:17
Speaker 4: good stuff this year during the regular season. With these guys,
4:20
Speaker 4: there is some huge problem here. The Celtics have no
4:23
Speaker 4: scoring options right now. I don't know what the hell
4:26
Speaker 4: is going on with this team. I'm so fucking pissed.
4:30
Speaker 4: They've been their double digit favorite at home every game
4:32
Speaker 4: in the series except Game seven. Now they're a much
4:35
Speaker 4: lighter favorite than that, and that line clearly looks like
4:38
Speaker 4: it's too short. Like, what the fuck are you supposed
4:41
Speaker 4: to do? Though? If they lose another series where they
4:43
Speaker 4: were an insurmountable favorite to win the series, like they
4:46
Speaker 4: did against the Heat a couple of years ago, of
4:48
Speaker 4: course Jason Tatum got hurt in that series as well.
4:51
Speaker 4: They were a big favorite in the series against the
4:53
Speaker 4: Knicks last year, but of course Tatum went down early
4:56
Speaker 4: in that series. If they lose another series where they're
5:00
Speaker 4: huge favorite like that, get him the fuck out of town.
5:03
Speaker 4: I'm done with this shit. I'm so fucking done with
5:06
Speaker 4: this fucking Celtics team. I don't know what the fuck
5:09
Speaker 4: to even tell you. Apparently Tatum is playing in Game
5:12
Speaker 4: seven I don't even know what to say. It's not
5:14
Speaker 4: his achilles, it was a calf injury. I don't know
5:17
Speaker 4: what to tell you. I have dude, I'm done with
5:20
Speaker 4: the shit. And then we did get a win on
5:21
Speaker 4: the Anna hud Ducks pretty easily in the hockey game.
5:24
Speaker 4: So hockey playoffs are four to one and one, so
5:27
Speaker 4: they could go trying to make sure that the five
5:32
Speaker 4: and seven or whatever the fuck we are in the
5:34
Speaker 4: NBA playoffs is you know we encounter that by winning
5:38
Speaker 4: in hockey. I guess I don't know what else to
5:40
Speaker 4: tell you, man. I'm happy the Oilers are gone, and
5:43
Speaker 4: it's just so stupid what the Oilers are doing. Oh, yeah,
5:46
Speaker 4: we have the best offensive player in hockey. What do
5:48
Speaker 4: we do? Yeah, let's have the worst goaltending in hockey
5:51
Speaker 4: as well, and the worst defense in hockey. Makes a
5:54
Speaker 4: lot of sense. Yeah, that team whatever. Not a fan
5:58
Speaker 4: of them. I don't like McDavid. He there be gone, Oilers,
6:02
Speaker 4: get the fuck out of here. Whatever, Chris Crider, I'll
6:07
Speaker 4: root for that guy a little bit. Whatever. Didn't have
6:10
Speaker 4: it right in my bracket, but whatever, All right, Josh,
6:15
Speaker 4: what's up things for hanging out? Yeah? Well, hopefully lawyers
6:20
Speaker 4: don't come after me, Tyson. What's up? Yeah, no shit.
6:24
Speaker 4: I fucking hate the Sixers do. The other thing that's
6:26
Speaker 4: the most irritating thing about one of the most irritating things.
6:30
Speaker 4: All they do is fucking flop. You get Oubra with
6:33
Speaker 4: this fucking stupid hair. He might be the dirtiest player
6:37
Speaker 4: in the NBA, and he's one of the worst floppers too,
6:39
Speaker 4: and he just throws himself to the ground. Oh that's
6:41
Speaker 4: an offensive foul on the Celtics. You got h Embiid
6:45
Speaker 4: is like grabbing Tatum and like arm checking him, and shit,
6:48
Speaker 4: oh that's a foul on Tatum or on the Celtics.
6:52
Speaker 4: Embiid gets to go to the line. What the fuck
6:54
Speaker 4: are you talking about? I hate these players. There were
6:57
Speaker 4: a bunch of dude. Embiid is a fucking asshole, and
7:00
Speaker 4: so is Uber. Fuck that fucking Sixers team. They're one
7:04
Speaker 4: of the dirtiest teams in the NBA. There are a
7:06
Speaker 4: bunch of fucking scumbags. I fucking hate that team. I
7:12
Speaker 4: don't even who's king flop Lebron. I hate Uber worse
7:16
Speaker 4: than Lebron. Dude, Lebron's not even a threat anymore. Whatever.
7:18
Speaker 4: I've always hated Lebron, but he's forty one years old
7:22
Speaker 4: now or whatever. He's just out of gas. He can't
7:24
Speaker 4: even shoot, so whatever. I don't care about Lebron anymore.
7:28
Speaker 4: I hate the Lakers. The Lakers are not dude. The
7:31
Speaker 4: Lakers are not gonna get past the thunder all right,
7:34
Speaker 4: even if Luca comes back, I don't think it's gonna happen.
7:37
Speaker 4: We gotta get into today. This is bad. This intro
7:40
Speaker 4: is taken forever. I'm gonna give you four plays today
7:42
Speaker 4: and they're all in baseball, so do with that what
7:46
Speaker 4: you want. We're looking at wager Talks odd screen and
7:48
Speaker 4: I'm going against the UH percentages and I think every
7:51
Speaker 4: one of my plays, So that's great. Pregame. It needs
7:54
Speaker 4: to fix their fucking garbage. I am so fucking livid
7:59
Speaker 4: about everything this morning. Dude. It's been three days. Now,
8:04
Speaker 4: fix your fucking back end. Get these fucking market percentages
8:08
Speaker 4: back in. I know it's a free tool, but just
8:11
Speaker 4: what the fuck? Seriously? All right, Baseball, we do have
8:18
Speaker 4: an afternoon Wrigley game on a Friday. What else is new?
8:21
Speaker 4: So there is one afternoon game if people want to
8:24
Speaker 4: watch at Arizona at the Cubs. The Cubs played, Actually
8:30
Speaker 4: were the Cubs playing, No, I think they were off yesterday, right,
8:32
Speaker 4: I don't even know anymore. Yeah, the Cubs had yesterday off.
8:35
Speaker 4: But they're returning home from the Pacific Coast. So that's
8:39
Speaker 4: not great for the Cubs that they're returning over from
8:41
Speaker 4: the Pacific coast. Now. They do have a rest advantage though,
8:44
Speaker 4: because Arizona did play yesterday. I'm pretty sure Arizona was
8:48
Speaker 4: in Milwaukee though, so Arizona. This is definitely a travel
8:52
Speaker 4: edge for Arizona, though they're only going from Milwaukee to
8:54
Speaker 4: Chicago here. Chicago's having a return home from the Dodgers
8:58
Speaker 4: and the Padres. Cubs do have the rest edge, like
9:02
Speaker 4: I said, But it's not a good travel spot, you know.
9:05
Speaker 4: I always talk about when the team returns home from
9:07
Speaker 4: a road trip, they have to get back to home life.
9:10
Speaker 4: It's not a good situation. Typically you typically want to
9:13
Speaker 4: fade that team. But yes, they do have the rest
9:16
Speaker 4: advantage here. Arizona. Their bullpen is not good in my opinion,
9:21
Speaker 4: and they use three relief pitchers yesterday. Cubs obviously were rested.
9:27
Speaker 4: The bullpens. The Cubs have the better bullpen. I don't
9:29
Speaker 4: care that Arizona is fifth in WHIP. Their ERA is
9:32
Speaker 4: over five. You cannot say that they're the fifth best bullpen.
9:35
Speaker 4: They're not a good bullpen. The Cubs bullpen has a
9:38
Speaker 4: three point seven to seven ERA same whip as well,
9:41
Speaker 4: So yeah, the Cubs have the better bullpen hitting wise.
9:44
Speaker 4: The Cubs also have the better offense. Other're fourth, although
9:48
Speaker 4: Arizona's ninth. So Arizona is a decent hitting team, which
9:51
Speaker 4: is basically what I think about them. They can hit,
9:54
Speaker 4: and they're not a very good pitching team. Zach Gallon
9:57
Speaker 4: is pitching for Arizona. Three point one four looks pretty good.
10:01
Speaker 4: One point three to six whip is not that good though,
10:04
Speaker 4: putting too many guys on base, so that indicates that
10:06
Speaker 4: his ERA should be higher than it is. He's been
10:09
Speaker 4: really bad on the road so far. I know it's
10:11
Speaker 4: still kind of a small sample, but as we turn
10:13
Speaker 4: over into May and we got a month of data,
10:15
Speaker 4: I'm and I start kind of looking at the splits here.
10:18
Speaker 4: Gallon five point one four erra on the road. That's
10:21
Speaker 4: not very good compared to one point two to three
10:23
Speaker 4: at home. So he's not a guy you really want
10:25
Speaker 4: to back on the road. Seventeen to seven strike a
10:28
Speaker 4: walk ratio over the course of the season doesn't look
10:30
Speaker 4: very good either, but he hasn't walked anybody in his
10:33
Speaker 4: last two outings. But he only went three innings in
10:36
Speaker 4: his last outing. I don't know if there was a
10:38
Speaker 4: rain delay. I don't know what happened in this outing
10:40
Speaker 4: because he was pitching fine. He'd only thrown forty nine pitches,
10:44
Speaker 4: three shutout innings, one hittle out against San Diego. Something
10:48
Speaker 4: happened in that start that caused him to pull him early,
10:50
Speaker 4: because there's no way that would have pulled them unless
10:53
Speaker 4: there was a rain issue or something like that. But
10:57
Speaker 4: what it couldn't have been though, because Arizona they have
10:59
Speaker 4: a roof there. I don't know what happened in that game, man,
11:02
Speaker 4: I have no clue what happened in that game. But
11:06
Speaker 4: Gallon has also allowed more than one hit per inning,
11:08
Speaker 4: which is a problem. Uh So, again, his strike out
11:11
Speaker 4: rate is down and he's putting too many guys on base.
11:14
Speaker 4: That's thirty two hits in twenty eight and two thirds innings.
11:17
Speaker 4: Numbers against the Cubs are actually pretty good, though, one
11:19
Speaker 4: hundred and thirty four at bats so we have a
11:21
Speaker 4: big sample thirty seven to sixteen strike out walk ratio.
11:24
Speaker 4: Though that's too many walks, but two twenty four average
11:27
Speaker 4: allowed six to sixty five ops. Yeah, I mean, they're
11:31
Speaker 4: just too many conflicting angles in this game. I can't
11:34
Speaker 4: do anything with this game. Colin Ray is pitching for
11:37
Speaker 4: the Cubs. His numbers are okay this year, four point
11:40
Speaker 4: six to one E Ray, one point two eight whip.
11:43
Speaker 4: He's been good at home, so the home road splits
11:45
Speaker 4: are definitely in favor of the Cubs. As far as
11:48
Speaker 4: the starting pitching goes two point seventy nine home y ra.
11:51
Speaker 4: He was really bad in his last outing, but it
11:54
Speaker 4: was at the Dodgers, so that was his worst outing
11:57
Speaker 4: of the year. But we know the Dodgers. They're an
11:59
Speaker 4: elite offense. Maybe you can't really take too much away
12:02
Speaker 4: from that. He's got a twenty four to nine strike
12:04
Speaker 4: out walk ratio overall. That start against the Dodgers was
12:07
Speaker 4: the only start where he allowed more than two walks.
12:10
Speaker 4: Still has allowed fewer than one hit per inning twenty
12:13
Speaker 4: six and twenty seven to third innings. You know, I'm
12:16
Speaker 4: not about to say that Ray is like somebody that
12:19
Speaker 4: you can't back or anything like that. Here, no, not
12:23
Speaker 4: going against the Cubs, going against Arizona. His numbers are
12:26
Speaker 4: not great here, fifty at bats, eight to two, strike
12:29
Speaker 4: out walk ratios fine, two eighty batting average though eight
12:33
Speaker 4: eight ops. And you know, I mean, I still think
12:37
Speaker 4: that that Dodgers start was more of a fluke. But
12:39
Speaker 4: he might be going a little bit out of form.
12:42
Speaker 4: Ray is just not a guy that I fully trust
12:44
Speaker 4: like ever, So I don't know, man, this game is
12:49
Speaker 4: not anything that I don't want to do anything with it.
12:52
Speaker 4: The money looks like it's backing the Cubs a little bit,
12:54
Speaker 4: with fifty six percent of the cash on them fifty
12:56
Speaker 4: one percent of the tickets on Arizona according to wager
12:59
Speaker 4: talks here with some money backing the under as well.
13:02
Speaker 4: Here the total is seven, and you know that that
13:05
Speaker 4: means wind is blowing in in Wrigley, because the wind
13:08
Speaker 4: has a huge effect on these totals. In the Wrigley games.
13:11
Speaker 4: The Cubs have moved up to a minus one forty
13:14
Speaker 4: three minus one forty or so favorite here for minus
13:17
Speaker 4: one fifteen. So the money does appear to be back
13:20
Speaker 4: in the Cubs here. You know, the argument for it
13:24
Speaker 4: is basically the home road splits the rest edge that
13:27
Speaker 4: they have. They do have a bullpen edge. I'm not
13:30
Speaker 4: going to back a team returning on from a road
13:31
Speaker 4: trip though, I'm not gonna do it. Yeah, I don't
13:34
Speaker 4: have a good read on this game at all, dude,
13:36
Speaker 4: Like they're just again. You could argue good things and
13:40
Speaker 4: bad things about the starting pitchers. You could argue good
13:42
Speaker 4: things and bad things about the situation each team is in.
13:46
Speaker 4: Do with that information what you want, But that game
13:48
Speaker 4: is I don't really even have a good opinion on it.
13:50
Speaker 4: But that's what the market numbers say, according to wager talk,
13:54
Speaker 4: which are across all these books here that include DKFD,
13:59
Speaker 4: some of the Vegas sports books are in here. Ah.
14:03
Speaker 4: The online books also include the one with the m
14:06
Speaker 4: and the Lion, the Roman Emperor one, and then some
14:11
Speaker 4: more Vegas books here, the ESPN one which no longer exists.
14:16
Speaker 4: That's now the score. Can I say that that's what
14:19
Speaker 4: that book is now? The one that starts with the
14:21
Speaker 4: F that sells all the shoddy merchandise is out there
14:25
Speaker 4: as well. All right, Texas at Detroit. This will be
14:28
Speaker 4: a play for me here in the first evening game.
14:32
Speaker 4: I'm used to having my best bets graphic being in
14:36
Speaker 4: a different place. Oh right, I should bring my ticker
14:43
Speaker 4: back up, even though it's not good anymore forty six,
14:46
Speaker 4: three and four the last twenty seven days. Might need
14:49
Speaker 4: to reset it if we start getting hot again. I
14:51
Speaker 4: don't know. Also, let me delete the rest of that.
14:54
Speaker 4: This play is going to be on the Texas Rangers
14:57
Speaker 4: plus one hundred. You can get them. This is money
14:59
Speaker 4: line full game. We're gonna include the bullpens. Texas has
15:03
Speaker 4: the better bullpen. Now. I like the spot as well,
15:06
Speaker 4: and I think the starting pitching matchup is good enough
15:09
Speaker 4: that we can play it that way, including you know,
15:12
Speaker 4: we're taking the bullpen edge of Texas as well. Here,
15:15
Speaker 4: Detroit's returning over from a road trip. They went to
15:17
Speaker 4: Cincinnati and Atlanta. Not the longest road trip, but that's
15:20
Speaker 4: a big series against Atlanta, and they won yesterday. I
15:23
Speaker 4: know it was in the afternoon, but still they're returning
15:27
Speaker 4: over from a road trip after playing yesterday. Those are
15:30
Speaker 4: two negatives. I believe Texas did not play yesterday, so
15:34
Speaker 4: Texas has a rest advantage. They already have the better bullpen,
15:37
Speaker 4: and we get Detroit returning over from a road trip
15:39
Speaker 4: and you know I talk about that when a team
15:41
Speaker 4: returns home from a road trip, a lot of times
15:43
Speaker 4: they will not be totally focused. They have to get
15:45
Speaker 4: back to home life whatever. The one negative situationally for
15:49
Speaker 4: Texas is they did beat the Yankees in their last game.
15:52
Speaker 4: I don't really see them being in a let down here, though,
15:55
Speaker 4: and they do have a little bit of an extra motivator,
15:57
Speaker 4: which isn't huge, But one thing is they're they're one
16:00
Speaker 4: game below five hundred, and a lot of times when
16:04
Speaker 4: a team is one game below five hundred, a lot
16:07
Speaker 4: of times they will be extra motivated just to try
16:09
Speaker 4: to get back to five hundred and the end of
16:12
Speaker 4: a three game losing streak by beating the Yankees in
16:14
Speaker 4: that last game. So I think they're not really going
16:16
Speaker 4: to be in a letdown here. They had yesterday off
16:19
Speaker 4: and they're starting a road trip, and you know I
16:21
Speaker 4: talk about when teams start road trips, they usually are focused,
16:24
Speaker 4: want to get off on the right foot. Texas has
16:27
Speaker 4: the better bullpen. They're number two in bullpen Whip. They
16:29
Speaker 4: have the best bullpen ra I believe I'm very distracted
16:33
Speaker 4: right now because there's all this landscaping bullshit going on
16:36
Speaker 4: outside right now. I fucking hate it. It's grinding in
16:39
Speaker 4: my fucking ear, in my brain. Get out of here, man.
16:44
Speaker 4: And then we have the bullpen for Detroit is not
16:47
Speaker 4: good at twenty fifth. They're putting like one and a
16:50
Speaker 4: half guys on basin innings, So we have a bullpen
16:52
Speaker 4: edge with Texas here. The hitting edge, yes, does go
16:55
Speaker 4: to the Tigers, but you know, I like better pitching
16:58
Speaker 4: over better hitting. Detroit sixth in offense, Texas is twenty fourth.
17:03
Speaker 4: Do with that information what you want starting pitching. I
17:06
Speaker 4: actually do like Gore this year over Flowerty Gore. I mean,
17:11
Speaker 4: his numbers aren't great, but he does seem to be
17:13
Speaker 4: not as bad as he was with Washington. Texas their
17:16
Speaker 4: pitching coaches do pretty well here. Man Gore. He has
17:20
Speaker 4: a four point three to five RA one point twenty
17:22
Speaker 4: nine whip. I know that's not great, and I know
17:24
Speaker 4: he's been bad on the road one a five point
17:26
Speaker 4: four ERA, so he is more comfortable at home in
17:30
Speaker 4: Texas's pitcher friendly park. I get all that, but we're
17:34
Speaker 4: gonna back him anyway here. Based on the spot. He
17:37
Speaker 4: has a ton of strikeouts forty two and thirty one
17:40
Speaker 4: innings on only twenty five hits a lout, so he
17:43
Speaker 4: deals man, he's got a lot of strikeouts, doesn't allow
17:46
Speaker 4: a lot of hits. The problem is he's a little
17:48
Speaker 4: wild fifteen walks. That's the thing he has to get
17:51
Speaker 4: under control.
17:52
Speaker 1: Uh.
17:52
Speaker 4: But he's really not been that bad. He's got He's
17:56
Speaker 4: allowed more than three or runs only once this season,
17:59
Speaker 4: so I think he can at least, at the very
18:01
Speaker 4: least keep us in this game and yeat. His numbers
18:04
Speaker 4: are not that good against Detroit, but they're not horrible
18:07
Speaker 4: in eighteen at bats. It's a small sample. He does
18:09
Speaker 4: have a ton of walks. I worry about that. One strikeout,
18:13
Speaker 4: five walks, two seventy eight average seven to sixty eight ops.
18:16
Speaker 4: I know, usually I want to back a guy that
18:18
Speaker 4: has better started pitching numbers than that, but we're doing
18:21
Speaker 4: it anyway here because I don't like Jack Flaherty. I
18:24
Speaker 4: think Gore has the much higher upside here. He's the
18:27
Speaker 4: better pitcher. Flaherty's been awful this year. He's got a
18:30
Speaker 4: five point three to three ERA, one point seven for whip.
18:34
Speaker 4: His home road spits don't even matter. His ERA is
18:36
Speaker 4: over five both ways, so that kind of counters the
18:40
Speaker 4: fact that Gore hasn't been that good on the road.
18:43
Speaker 4: Flaherty's really been struggling. He's had multiple walks in every outing,
18:47
Speaker 4: at least three in all but one outing, and that
18:49
Speaker 4: was because he only pitched two winnings in his last outing.
18:53
Speaker 4: He's really not pitching well. Twenty eight strikeouts in twenty
18:56
Speaker 4: five and a third innings is good, but twenty two
18:58
Speaker 4: walks is absolutely outrageous, unbelievable amount of walks, almost one
19:03
Speaker 4: walk per inning. That's absolutely unbackable. And in fact, we're
19:07
Speaker 4: fading him here. And he's allowed fewer than one hit
19:09
Speaker 4: per inning, which is good, but his walk numbers are
19:12
Speaker 4: absolutely ridiculous. Going up against Texas here, I know they're
19:16
Speaker 4: not the best offense, but Flaherty has not been that
19:18
Speaker 4: great against them in seventy three at bat so we
19:21
Speaker 4: have a bigger sample here. Nineteen to nine strike out
19:24
Speaker 4: walk ratio two sixty average isn't that bad, but a
19:27
Speaker 4: nine o three ops. They got a bunch of guys
19:30
Speaker 4: that have home runs off him. Jock Peterson the jockeitch
19:35
Speaker 4: seven for twenty two with three home runs off him,
19:38
Speaker 4: five strikeouts, one walk. But yeah, we'll fade Flaherty here.
19:41
Speaker 4: I like Gore. I like the situation better. The money
19:44
Speaker 4: doesn't agree with me, but whatever, this is what we're doing.
19:48
Speaker 4: We have seventy five percent of the tickets on Texas
19:50
Speaker 4: and fifty nine percent of the cash on Detroit. I
19:53
Speaker 4: don't even understand that, Like, do you really think the
19:55
Speaker 4: public is backing Texas here when they have the worst record?
19:59
Speaker 4: I don't know. Now, I will point out, yes, Detroit
20:01
Speaker 4: is good at home, tended to at home, but Flaherty
20:05
Speaker 4: is not really one of the guys that factors into that.
20:07
Speaker 4: So yes, we're gonna fade a team with a good
20:09
Speaker 4: home record in what I think is a spot to
20:11
Speaker 4: do it. The total is low in this game, which
20:14
Speaker 4: is kind of strange, but taking the underdog in a
20:17
Speaker 4: low total game is usually not that bad of an idea.
20:19
Speaker 4: It looks like it's seven and a half or eight
20:21
Speaker 4: in this game. I don't have a good I don't
20:25
Speaker 4: have an opinion on the total really in the game,
20:27
Speaker 4: but yeah, that's my opinion there on the side, and
20:30
Speaker 4: that will be a play for me. We're going with
20:33
Speaker 4: a lot of road teams today, man, and some of
20:35
Speaker 4: them are favorites. We're actually laying some road run lines today,
20:39
Speaker 4: which is ridiculous. Mister Pensey, what's up? Yes, that's correct,
20:44
Speaker 4: Thank you. Dude. Who does that chick look like the
20:49
Speaker 4: the AI chick in my video there? She looks a
20:53
Speaker 4: ton like some actress and it's bugging me. I can't
20:56
Speaker 4: figure it out, Like she looks almost exactly like, Oh,
21:01
Speaker 4: I know who it is. It's oh my god, fucking
21:05
Speaker 4: uh is it Marina Bakering. Dude, She's one of my favorites.
21:11
Speaker 4: I hope it is her. Let me see, I think
21:13
Speaker 4: it is her. Uh yeah, I think that's what I'm
21:19
Speaker 4: thinking of. Yeah, Marina Baker and yeah, hell yeah, man,
21:24
Speaker 4: I'll take it. I'll take it. I'll take her, all right.
21:29
Speaker 4: We've only got through two games here. This is some bullshit.
21:32
Speaker 4: Twenty minutes in got to try to do this, man.
21:35
Speaker 4: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh is on Apple TV. Pittsburgh played yesterday.
21:39
Speaker 4: Both teams played yesterday. Actually, Pittsburgh is on a five
21:43
Speaker 4: game losing streak. It is unbelievable. They got swept at
21:46
Speaker 4: home by the Cardinals, so I don't think are even good.
21:49
Speaker 4: Paul's Skeens couldn't even get them a win yesterday. Skiens
21:53
Speaker 4: got kind of roughed up in that game, even though
21:55
Speaker 4: his strikeout stuff was there. I don't, dude, I don't
21:58
Speaker 4: know what to tell you. I don't know how that happened.
22:00
Speaker 4: And you gotta think Pittsburgh is gonna bounce back here.
22:03
Speaker 4: They're now sitting at five hundred, last place in the division,
22:06
Speaker 4: staying at home playing the top team in the division
22:09
Speaker 4: right now, the Reds, so I think are probably fraudulent.
22:13
Speaker 4: I think the Cubs are clearly the best team in
22:15
Speaker 4: this division. I don't think Cincinnati is even close really,
22:20
Speaker 4: So Pittsburgh, I think they're gonna possibly be in a
22:24
Speaker 4: bounced back spot here. I mean that is just you
22:26
Speaker 4: can't get swept at home by Saint Louis man and
22:29
Speaker 4: lose give up double digit runs in a couple of
22:32
Speaker 4: the games, especially with schemes on the mound. You what
22:36
Speaker 4: is going on here? Man? Cincinnati did play yesterday as well.
22:39
Speaker 4: They're coming in from or they're coming in from home,
22:41
Speaker 4: so they're starting a road trip. So I don't really
22:44
Speaker 4: know if I want to back Pittsburgh here though, even
22:46
Speaker 4: though I think they have the better starting pitcher here,
22:48
Speaker 4: I think they are in a bounced back spot here.
22:50
Speaker 4: Cincinnati is coming in from home. Like I said, they
22:53
Speaker 4: just beat Colorado, finished that series off yesterday. Not a
22:57
Speaker 4: bad travel spot for Cincinnati. The road trip going to
23:01
Speaker 4: Pittsburgh a lot of times, that is a focus spot.
23:03
Speaker 4: Like I said, when you start a road trip. Cincinnati
23:06
Speaker 4: used three relief pitchers yesterday. Problem is Pittsburgh used more
23:10
Speaker 4: than that. They used four. Looking at the bullpens, both
23:14
Speaker 4: bullpens have been mediocre. I would say Cincinnati's twentieth in whip.
23:20
Speaker 4: Even though their ray looks good in the threes, their
23:23
Speaker 4: bullpen is kind of untrustworthy. Pittsburgh has a worse bullpen
23:26
Speaker 4: ERA but a better bullpen whip Right now. I'm basically
23:29
Speaker 4: gonna say both bullpens are mid tier, and I don't
23:31
Speaker 4: really think one of them is a huge edge over
23:33
Speaker 4: the other. Pittsburgh is a little bit less rested. Pittsburgh
23:37
Speaker 4: has had the better offense, although they've fallen to nineteenth.
23:40
Speaker 4: The Reds are twenty first right now, but I do
23:44
Speaker 4: think Pittsburgh has a better offense. That has been the
23:47
Speaker 4: case throughout the season so far. Brady Singer is pitching
23:50
Speaker 4: for Cincinnati. He's not been very good. Four point nine
23:53
Speaker 4: to seven ERA, one point six to two whip and
23:56
Speaker 4: for whatever reason, he's more comfortable at home in Cincinnati,
24:00
Speaker 4: even though they're a hitter friendly ballpark. His ra is
24:03
Speaker 4: three runs higher on the road this year so far,
24:05
Speaker 4: six point five to nine, So he's definitely a guy
24:10
Speaker 4: you want to look to fade on the road. His
24:11
Speaker 4: whip is way too high. He's given up forty hits
24:15
Speaker 4: in twenty nine innings, which is a real problem. He's
24:18
Speaker 4: been really, really really hit able nineteen to seven strike
24:21
Speaker 4: a walk ratio, and that's not a lot of walks really,
24:24
Speaker 4: but it's not a lot of strikeouts. Yeah, I mean,
24:26
Speaker 4: not a lot of love to love about Singer here,
24:29
Speaker 4: but he's not really allowing that many runs really. He
24:32
Speaker 4: got ruffed up in one outing at Miami, and other
24:35
Speaker 4: than that, he's allowed three or fewer earned runs and
24:37
Speaker 4: every outing, so that's not horrible. And in fact, Cincinnati's
24:41
Speaker 4: actually won five of his six starts on the season,
24:45
Speaker 4: so he looks like he does get some run support
24:47
Speaker 4: as well. Facing Pittsburgh, his numbers are actually pretty good
24:53
Speaker 4: here seventy seven at bats, two thirty four average allowed,
24:56
Speaker 4: six to sixty ops ten, fourteen to ten strike walk
25:00
Speaker 4: ratio is not good though too many walks, So Singer
25:05
Speaker 4: is kind of hard to figure out. Man, there are
25:06
Speaker 4: some negatives. There are some positives here. Mitch Keller pitching
25:11
Speaker 4: for Pittsburgh. He's obviously got the better numbers on the season.
25:14
Speaker 4: He's definitely the more trustworthy pitcher. Three point one eighty IRA,
25:18
Speaker 4: one point one to five whip. His home roads splits
25:21
Speaker 4: are not really that significant, although he is actually a
25:23
Speaker 4: little bit worse at home this season. He's been pretty
25:27
Speaker 4: good overall. Not a strikeout guy. Twenty five strikeouts in
25:30
Speaker 4: thirty four innings. Eleven walks is a bit too high,
25:33
Speaker 4: but twenty eight hits allowed that's low. He's allowed more
25:36
Speaker 4: than three runs only once. He's definitely been the steadier
25:40
Speaker 4: pitcher though, so I prefer Keller over Singer in this matchup.
25:46
Speaker 4: Keller going up against Cincinnati. What are his numbers here?
25:49
Speaker 4: I looked at all this earlier. His numbers are pretty good.
25:51
Speaker 4: One hundred and eighteen at bats a big sample, thirty strikeouts,
25:55
Speaker 4: thirteen walks, not the greatest ratio but not awful. To
25:58
Speaker 4: twenty batting average, six to seven, nine ops. Those numbers
26:02
Speaker 4: are fine. They're actually on the better side. So yeah,
26:07
Speaker 4: I mean I'm gonna lead Pittsburgh slightly here. I think
26:11
Speaker 4: they have the better starting pitcher. I think the spot
26:14
Speaker 4: is a positive for both teams really, and then bullpens.
26:18
Speaker 4: I just don't think there's a huge gap. So I
26:20
Speaker 4: like Pittsburgh, even though I feel like I've been saying
26:23
Speaker 4: that a lot recently and it hasn't happened. The money
26:25
Speaker 4: is back in Cincinnati. Oh yeah, what else is new?
26:28
Speaker 4: Fifty six percent of tickets on Pittsburgh, eighty one percent
26:30
Speaker 4: of the cash on Cincinnati. Do with that information what
26:34
Speaker 4: you want. But those are my thoughts on that game.
26:38
Speaker 4: You know, I guess they're based on the matchup numbers alone.
26:42
Speaker 4: I guess there are some arguments to be made for
26:44
Speaker 4: the under in that, but the money looks like it's
26:47
Speaker 4: really actually signaling on the over in the game, with
26:50
Speaker 4: a total going up to eight and a half, a
26:52
Speaker 4: slight tick up on the total there at most books. Again,
26:56
Speaker 4: do with that information what you want. Also, when you're
26:59
Speaker 4: looking at these books, by the way, you got to
27:03
Speaker 4: kind of like figure out like which books are like
27:06
Speaker 4: the Sharper books versus the non sharp ones. And that's
27:09
Speaker 4: why I like pregame because they actually give you the
27:13
Speaker 4: they're easier to read because they give you the Sharper books.
27:16
Speaker 4: They include the Sharper books to like a big degree,
27:19
Speaker 4: which is like the offshore of books and stuff like that,
27:22
Speaker 4: Whereas this screen here, these are not really the Sharper books.
27:25
Speaker 4: These are all you know, the public books, the online books.
27:28
Speaker 4: Then I think the Sharper ones. A couple of the
27:33
Speaker 4: Vegas ones I think are probably a little bit sharper.
27:35
Speaker 4: I think probably the Circa. I think it's probably the
27:38
Speaker 4: sharpest one that's out there right now that's on this
27:41
Speaker 4: list here. I mean I should say maybe the super Book,
27:44
Speaker 4: although I don't know, because the South Point. All three
27:46
Speaker 4: of those Vegas books actually have a higher number on
27:49
Speaker 4: the Cleveland, for example, in the NBA than the rest
27:52
Speaker 4: of these books do except for fanatics or sorry, I
27:55
Speaker 4: don't know if I'm allowed to say it, but yeah, whatever, whatever,
28:00
Speaker 4: do with the information what you want. Milwaukee was at Washington.
28:04
Speaker 4: I was gonna say, Wisconsin, Yeah, we're gonna have a
28:08
Speaker 4: play on this game as well. MLBtv. Let's get into it, man,
28:18
Speaker 4: And yes, I said, we're laying some run lines on
28:20
Speaker 4: the road today. This is what we're doing. We're gonna
28:23
Speaker 4: play Milwaukee on the run line at minus one and
28:25
Speaker 4: a half at plus one ten. They got a win
28:27
Speaker 4: by two. I know, but at least you get all
28:30
Speaker 4: nine at bats with them. Maybe you gotta worry about
28:33
Speaker 4: their offense a little bit because Washington does have a
28:35
Speaker 4: better offense. Looking at the schedule here, Washington's returning over
28:40
Speaker 4: road trips, So that's the first negative. They were on
28:43
Speaker 4: the East coast already, but still they went to the
28:45
Speaker 4: White Sox and then the Mets. They were able to
28:48
Speaker 4: beat the Mets. I mean, that's a big divisional series,
28:50
Speaker 4: even though the Mets are not really that good. That's
28:53
Speaker 4: big beating the Mets in a series like that in
28:55
Speaker 4: my opinion. Now they're returning home. I believe they played yesterday,
28:59
Speaker 4: so they don't have any off and we know Washington's
29:02
Speaker 4: bullpen is bad, so I think it's a negative your
29:05
Speaker 4: return home. You got to get back to home life,
29:08
Speaker 4: you got stuff to do. I don't think Washington is
29:10
Speaker 4: that good, even though they I believe their hitting has
29:13
Speaker 4: been pretty good at home though, so we do have
29:14
Speaker 4: to worry about that. But the pitching, I think is
29:17
Speaker 4: going to be able to keep them down Milwaukee. I
29:19
Speaker 4: know they scored a ton yesterday. I was thinking about
29:22
Speaker 4: maybe not adding this to my card because they did
29:24
Speaker 4: score thirteen runs twice in the Arizona Series, but that
29:28
Speaker 4: doesn't mean their offense is hitting well right now. So
29:31
Speaker 4: that's good they're going I know they have some injuries though,
29:34
Speaker 4: they're going out on the road starting a road trip,
29:36
Speaker 4: so you know, I like that a team starting a
29:38
Speaker 4: road trip usually is going to be focused. Milwaukee, they
29:43
Speaker 4: used a lot of relief pitchers yesterday, so I am
29:45
Speaker 4: a little bit worried about that. They use five relievers yesterday,
29:48
Speaker 4: including their closer Washington, though they're bad bullpen. They used
29:53
Speaker 4: three relief pitchers yesterday. But I'm still willing to fade
29:56
Speaker 4: this Washington bullpen because they're that bad. So that that's
30:00
Speaker 4: the way that we're gonna do it. Washington is there
30:03
Speaker 4: will be the ra actually drop below five, but they
30:06
Speaker 4: still have a one and a half whip twenty third
30:08
Speaker 4: bullpen era Brewers have a better bullpen still at three
30:12
Speaker 4: point seven to eighty RA, so we're still gonna go
30:14
Speaker 4: with this year. Hitting wise, Washington has been better, but
30:18
Speaker 4: they've fallen off a little bit. They're twelve now, the
30:21
Speaker 4: Brewers are twenty at the Brewers seem to be coming
30:23
Speaker 4: around a little bit. I do think the Brewers hitting
30:26
Speaker 4: is better than what they've shown so far this year.
30:29
Speaker 4: And I don't know if some of these guys are
30:30
Speaker 4: coming back yet from injury. Looks like they're still missing
30:35
Speaker 4: some guys here. Yeah, I mean Churio. I think it's
30:40
Speaker 4: been out for the whole season, but they're still without
30:42
Speaker 4: Vaughan and Yellick. But that's been the case for a
30:45
Speaker 4: bit now. But the starting pitching, I think is a
30:48
Speaker 4: huge edge from Milwaukee. Here. We got the miss on
30:51
Speaker 4: the mound.
30:52
Speaker 1: Man.
30:52
Speaker 4: I know he doesn't go deep enough into games, but
30:55
Speaker 4: he's a very good pitcher. He's one of the hardest
30:57
Speaker 4: throwing pitchers in baseball. Three point three one point one whip.
31:02
Speaker 4: His era is basically the same home and away, it
31:05
Speaker 4: doesn't matter. He's given up three or fewer earned runs
31:07
Speaker 4: in every outing. He is a ridiculous fifty one strikeouts
31:11
Speaker 4: in thirty two and two thirds innings. Man, he might
31:14
Speaker 4: have the highest strikeout rate in baseball for a starting pitcher.
31:18
Speaker 4: That's ridiculous. Like usually you only see a strikeout rate
31:21
Speaker 4: that high from relief pitchers. That's crazy. Thirteen walks isn't
31:27
Speaker 4: even that bad either, especially for a guy that usually
31:29
Speaker 4: is a bit wild. He actually hasn't been that bad
31:32
Speaker 4: with the wildness this year, and he's only allowed twenty
31:34
Speaker 4: three hits. He's been good. He's been on fire. He
31:38
Speaker 4: said nine or more strikeouts in the majority of his
31:42
Speaker 4: outings so far, all but two of them. Yeah, he's
31:45
Speaker 4: pitching well, and against Washington, they've never seen him before,
31:49
Speaker 4: so that's an extra advantage, you know what I talk
31:51
Speaker 4: about When you have this young talented pitcher and we
31:54
Speaker 4: know who he is at this point. Yeah, there's game
31:56
Speaker 4: film on him, but it doesn't replicate what you have
31:59
Speaker 4: to do in a live game environment against a guy
32:02
Speaker 4: like this, you know what I mean. So I think
32:03
Speaker 4: he's gonna have an extra advantage over Washington here because
32:06
Speaker 4: they haven't seen him before. So I like that. And
32:08
Speaker 4: he's going up against Jake Irvin, and I know we
32:11
Speaker 4: tried to fade Irvin in his last game and we
32:13
Speaker 4: got caught. His numbers actually are not that bad. Four
32:16
Speaker 4: point eight five ERA, one point one to eight whip,
32:18
Speaker 4: those are not bad numbers, but he's been atrocious at
32:21
Speaker 4: home so far. He has a nine ERA at home
32:24
Speaker 4: so far. I know it's a small sample, it's only
32:26
Speaker 4: two starts, and yes, you have to dial it back
32:29
Speaker 4: a little bit because those numbers are against the Dodgers
32:32
Speaker 4: and against at Lana, and we know those have been
32:35
Speaker 4: top offenses in baseball this year, so yes, we have
32:39
Speaker 4: to dial it back a little bit. But he faced
32:42
Speaker 4: Milwaukee already, So that's another disadvantage to Irvin here is
32:45
Speaker 4: that Milwaukee just saw him on April tenth, So whereas
32:49
Speaker 4: Washington hasn't faced Mizerowski ever, Irvin has a lot of
32:53
Speaker 4: familiarity to Milwaukee, and I think that's an advantage to
32:56
Speaker 4: Milwaukee's hitters. And he didn't do well in that start
33:00
Speaker 4: it was at Milwaukee. He walked five guys in five
33:03
Speaker 4: innings in that game, gave up three earned runs, had
33:06
Speaker 4: five strikeouts, threw one hundred pitches. It was one of
33:09
Speaker 4: his worst starts of the season. So he might not
33:12
Speaker 4: do well here. And man, Milwaukee, they know how to
33:15
Speaker 4: hit him. But also, you know what I'm about to
33:17
Speaker 4: show you. His matchup numbers are not good. They have
33:20
Speaker 4: seventy seven at bats against him. He has more walks
33:23
Speaker 4: than strikeouts twelve strikeouts fourteen walks two eighty six batting
33:27
Speaker 4: average allowed nine to fifteen ops. That's not good. A
33:31
Speaker 4: few different guys have homered off him as well. I
33:34
Speaker 4: think we could do this year again. Irvin has the
33:37
Speaker 4: really bad home road splits, miz has the unfamiliarity edge.
33:40
Speaker 4: I think there's a situational edge from Milwaukee here. I
33:44
Speaker 4: like the Milwaukee's kind of turning it around on offense.
33:47
Speaker 4: The only worry is Milwaukee's bullpen is pretty unrested here.
33:51
Speaker 4: But again, Washington's bullpen is bad enough that I think
33:53
Speaker 4: we can just kind of counter that, and if the
33:56
Speaker 4: starting pitching works out in our favor, Washington might have
33:58
Speaker 4: to go to the bullpen sooner. Although I know missy
34:01
Speaker 4: Rowski a lot of times he will only give you
34:02
Speaker 4: five innings because he throws too many pitches. That's a
34:05
Speaker 4: little bit of a concern. If you want to go first,
34:08
Speaker 4: you can go first five innings on this if you
34:10
Speaker 4: want to. I'm fine with that as well. But I'm
34:13
Speaker 4: gonna go full game on it, just factoring in everything
34:15
Speaker 4: about the game, the situation, etc. So we're gonna do it.
34:19
Speaker 4: We're laying a run line with Milwaukee there, all right,
34:22
Speaker 4: And I know we're going against what the public is
34:26
Speaker 4: thinking here. Now, another thing we have going on here
34:29
Speaker 4: is we had four teams played doubleheaders yesterday, which were Houston, Baltimore, Philadelphia,
34:35
Speaker 4: and San Francisco and Philly. San Francisco had an extra
34:38
Speaker 4: inning game as well mixed in there. So I was thinking, yeah,
34:41
Speaker 4: we want to fade all four of those teams today,
34:44
Speaker 4: but I'm in fact not fading any of them. So
34:48
Speaker 4: that's just the way it works out, man. And it
34:52
Speaker 4: just so happens they're all facing teams that didn't even
34:54
Speaker 4: play yesterday too, I'm pretty sure, so those teams are
34:57
Speaker 4: all at major, major disadvantages. The problem is, look at
35:01
Speaker 4: the first game up though, it's Baltimore having to go
35:04
Speaker 4: to the Yankees. Baltimore. Yes, they played two games yesterday,
35:08
Speaker 4: Yankees were off, so okay, that looks pretty good for
35:12
Speaker 4: the Yankees. Baltimore used a lot of relief pitchers. They
35:15
Speaker 4: use six guys out of the bullpen yesterday. So even
35:18
Speaker 4: though Baltimore normally does have a somewhat better bullpen than
35:21
Speaker 4: the Yankees do, Baltimore it's seventy seventh Yankees at seventeenth Yankees,
35:25
Speaker 4: bullpen's not that bad and they're fully rested, so that
35:28
Speaker 4: completely negates the bullpen edge that Baltimore has. In my opinion,
35:33
Speaker 4: Yankees have the better offense. So though Baltimore's eleventh in
35:36
Speaker 4: ops right now Yankees fifth problems start coming in when
35:41
Speaker 4: you start looking at what's happening in this game, because
35:42
Speaker 4: the Yankees are returning over from a road trip, a
35:45
Speaker 4: long road trip. But they went to Boston, Houston, Texas.
35:48
Speaker 4: They won every game, sorry, every series during the road trip.
35:51
Speaker 4: They only lost two games during the road trip, but
35:54
Speaker 4: they won every series. Now there returning home, and you
35:56
Speaker 4: know I talk about that, it's a negative when a
35:59
Speaker 4: team returns home from the road. A lot of times
36:01
Speaker 4: they will not be focused. Baltimore might be a little
36:04
Speaker 4: bit extra focus because they are one game below five
36:06
Speaker 4: hundred and they're facing the Yankees. But yes, the Yankees
36:09
Speaker 4: have a huge rest advantage, there's no doubt about that.
36:12
Speaker 4: But the schedule makers know what they're doing. Man, I
36:16
Speaker 4: don't know if they really know about the return home
36:18
Speaker 4: bad situation, but what they do know is they're gonna
36:22
Speaker 4: pair a team that's having to travel a lot with
36:25
Speaker 4: the team that had to play yesterday. You know what
36:27
Speaker 4: I mean to try to make it like give both
36:30
Speaker 4: teams kind of a disadvantage, you know what I mean,
36:32
Speaker 4: that one team doesn't have as much of an edge
36:34
Speaker 4: over the other. So the schedule makers do know what
36:36
Speaker 4: they're doing. In a lot of cases, I'm gonna try
36:38
Speaker 4: to find teams that didn't play yesterday and are not
36:41
Speaker 4: returning home from a road trip, you know what I mean,
36:43
Speaker 4: against the team that played twice yesterday with a pitching
36:46
Speaker 4: matchup that I like, that's kind of the ideal, but
36:48
Speaker 4: we don't have that here. We also don't even know
36:52
Speaker 4: who Baltimore's starting pitcher is going to be here, so
36:54
Speaker 4: that's also a problem. They have not listed a starting
36:56
Speaker 4: pitcher as far as I know, so that's a problem.
37:00
Speaker 4: Will Warren is pitching for the Yankees, and Yankees fans
37:04
Speaker 4: you know, they're a bunch of spoiled idiots because they
37:06
Speaker 4: keep complaining about Will Warren and like, how can you
37:09
Speaker 4: complain about these numbers? And I've been talking about him,
37:11
Speaker 4: you know, since he's been in the league. I've been like,
37:14
Speaker 4: he's not that bad, guys, Like his strikeout rate is
37:17
Speaker 4: pretty good. He does tend to struggle on the road, though,
37:21
Speaker 4: but this year he hasn't and he's at home here
37:23
Speaker 4: of course, two point five ninety ra one point one
37:26
Speaker 4: five whip. Overall, he's been basically the same home and
37:29
Speaker 4: away this year, So that's a good sign for Warren
37:33
Speaker 4: and the Yankees. And he has a really nice thirty
37:35
Speaker 4: seven to seven strike out walk ratio and twenty nine
37:37
Speaker 4: hits a lot in thirty one to the third innings. Yeah,
37:40
Speaker 4: I'm gonna tell you, man, this Yankees starting pitching rotation
37:43
Speaker 4: wasn't that good last year. It's pretty good this year
37:46
Speaker 4: with Freed, Schlitler and Warren. I mean, that's actually a
37:50
Speaker 4: pretty good Those guys are their top three in the rotation.
37:53
Speaker 4: That's actually pretty good, you know, even though they've had
37:57
Speaker 4: struggles elsewhere in the rotation. They're gonna get cold back
38:00
Speaker 4: at some point too. And by the way, the Yankees
38:02
Speaker 4: have only lost one game that Warren has started so
38:05
Speaker 4: far this year, so I think the Yankees are gonna
38:08
Speaker 4: win this game. Obviously. Morean though he's not that good
38:12
Speaker 4: against Baltimore thirty nine at bats swallowed, the six strike
38:14
Speaker 4: out walk race here to eighty two average allowed eight
38:17
Speaker 4: thirty nine ops. But what I'm gonna say about that is, yeah,
38:21
Speaker 4: the matchup doesn't look great I'm not gonna play the
38:23
Speaker 4: Yankees at a high price, so we don't even know
38:25
Speaker 4: Baltimore is gonna put out there on the mound. But
38:28
Speaker 4: what I will say is that these numbers were accumulated
38:33
Speaker 4: when Warren was a little bit of a worse pitcher
38:35
Speaker 4: than he appears to be right now. So I don't
38:38
Speaker 4: know how much weight you could put into that. The
38:40
Speaker 4: Yankees are a big favorite at minus one eighty six.
38:43
Speaker 4: The money is fading the Yankees, but I would not
38:47
Speaker 4: let me say, where are we looking here? Eighty three
38:50
Speaker 4: percent of tickets only fifty six percent of the cash
38:52
Speaker 4: on the Yankees. But then again, remember these are a
38:55
Speaker 4: lot of these numbers are coming from the more public books,
38:58
Speaker 4: and I would much rather see the sharp books having
39:02
Speaker 4: more of an effect on these numbers, you know what
39:03
Speaker 4: I mean. So these numbers. I always get thrown off
39:06
Speaker 4: by these numbers, just like when I look at Action Network, like,
39:09
Speaker 4: I don't think you really put that much weight into it.
39:11
Speaker 4: The Yankees are at minus one ninety, minus one eighty
39:14
Speaker 4: somewhere in that range, and a lot of these books,
39:18
Speaker 4: the more public books, two of them is a higher
39:20
Speaker 4: favorite here. But I would not fade the Yankees in
39:22
Speaker 4: the spot, I would probably lean Yankees again. If you
39:26
Speaker 4: want to play the Yankees, though, you're gonna have to
39:28
Speaker 4: deal with I don't know, man, you'd have to deal
39:31
Speaker 4: with laying a run line on them. Maybe you could
39:34
Speaker 4: go Yankees over their team total. But I worried that
39:37
Speaker 4: their offense might start slow because they had yesterday off
39:39
Speaker 4: and they're turning over from a road trip, So their
39:41
Speaker 4: offense might be cool to start the game, but they
39:45
Speaker 4: should be able to score some runs off an unrested
39:47
Speaker 4: Baltimore bullpen. I don't know. I think I probably still
39:50
Speaker 4: prefer a Yankee run line though, even though you might
39:52
Speaker 4: have to lay one and a half or split the
39:54
Speaker 4: bet one and a half with a money line there. Yeah,
39:58
Speaker 4: I'm just not so sure. Yeah that I see preferred
40:01
Speaker 4: approach there to that. Houston at Boston Houston, same thing.
40:06
Speaker 4: They played two games yesterday and they used I believe
40:09
Speaker 4: every reliever out of their bullpen got used yesterday. And
40:12
Speaker 4: Houston has the worst bullpen in baseball as well, So
40:16
Speaker 4: the Red Sox better score some runs. No, my mistake.
40:18
Speaker 4: They had three guys they did not use yesterday. One
40:21
Speaker 4: of them is on paternity to leave though, fade the baby. Yeah,
40:25
Speaker 4: Houston used almost all their relief pitchers, though they used
40:28
Speaker 4: six while the Red Sox were off. So Red Sox
40:32
Speaker 4: have a huge rest edge. But they're also returning on
40:34
Speaker 4: from a road trip, at least for them, they're returning
40:37
Speaker 4: from a road trip that was entirely within their division
40:40
Speaker 4: Baltimore and Toronto, so it's not as bad of a
40:42
Speaker 4: road trip. They're still having to come back through customs
40:45
Speaker 4: and whatever from Canada. But the Red Sox scored one
40:48
Speaker 4: run over the last two games of that Toronto series.
40:50
Speaker 4: That's bad. You know, I don't know that the Red
40:54
Speaker 4: Sox are not going to overlook Houston because the Red
40:56
Speaker 4: Sox got swept by Houston in Houston or this year,
41:00
Speaker 4: so I think the Red Sox are unlikely to actually
41:03
Speaker 4: be that distracted, even though, yes, when you return home
41:06
Speaker 4: it is a distraction spot. You got to get back
41:08
Speaker 4: to home life, whatever, so you know that you'd still
41:13
Speaker 4: have the factor that in even though I don't think
41:15
Speaker 4: they're gonna fully overlook Houston. Houston's pitching looks like it's
41:18
Speaker 4: gonna be a big time problem here. Mike Burrows is pitching.
41:21
Speaker 4: He has not been good. Six point two five y
41:24
Speaker 4: ra one point six to seven whip. He's been really
41:27
Speaker 4: bound on the road seven point one five Roady Ray.
41:30
Speaker 4: Fenway's a pitcher friendly park. The Red Sox actually faced
41:33
Speaker 4: him once this year in that Houston Series. He was
41:36
Speaker 4: actually fairly decent in that start. He went five and runs,
41:40
Speaker 4: give five. He went five and runs five innings, give
41:42
Speaker 4: up two earn runs on five hits, three walks wasn't good,
41:45
Speaker 4: and six strikeouts. Overall, he's got thirty three strikeouts and
41:49
Speaker 4: thirty one and two thirds innings. That's not bad. Obviously,
41:52
Speaker 4: twelve walks is a little bit high, but he's also
41:54
Speaker 4: allowed forty one hits and seven home runs. So his
41:57
Speaker 4: problem has been he's been way too hittable and Houston's
42:01
Speaker 4: pitching behind him sucks like the bullpen socks. Of course,
42:05
Speaker 4: Houston's lost all but one of his starts, and it
42:07
Speaker 4: happened to be that one against the Red Sox because
42:09
Speaker 4: of course it was. That was the only win that
42:12
Speaker 4: Houston has with him on the mound against the Red Sox. Now,
42:15
Speaker 4: the Red Sox have seen him and they didn't do
42:18
Speaker 4: too badly against him. They have thirty one at bats
42:20
Speaker 4: off him. Actually they didn't hit him for power though
42:23
Speaker 4: seven strikeouts, three walks, two ninety average is pretty good
42:27
Speaker 4: for the Red Sox offense, but six seventy six ops
42:30
Speaker 4: that's not that high. Again, they only have one extra
42:33
Speaker 4: base hit, which is a double from Connor Wong, believe
42:36
Speaker 4: it or not, even though he is not one of
42:38
Speaker 4: the better at Red Sox hitters, but maybe he should
42:40
Speaker 4: be in the lineup for this specific matchup the Red Sox.
42:44
Speaker 4: The problem here is they're returning over from a road
42:46
Speaker 4: trip and we have no idea who the Red Sox
42:48
Speaker 4: have starting, because the Red Sox don't have Garrett Crochet
42:52
Speaker 4: and they don't have Sonny Gray right now. And I
42:54
Speaker 4: believe it was gonna be Crochet's turn in the rotation,
42:57
Speaker 4: but he's fucking hers, So that's awesome the Red Sox.
43:01
Speaker 4: This starter for the Red Sox is either gonna be
43:05
Speaker 4: Eduardo Rivera or Bennett. I forget what Bennett. I want
43:11
Speaker 4: to say, Jake Bennett me out of whatever his name
43:13
Speaker 4: is something Bennett. So the Red Sox are calling two
43:17
Speaker 4: guys up from the miners here, two of their like
43:21
Speaker 4: pitching prospects that are kind of waiting in the wings. Here.
43:24
Speaker 4: Red Sox have a lot of young pitching. Man, they're
43:27
Speaker 4: gonna be one of the youngest rotations. Imagine if they
43:29
Speaker 4: have early totally and whoever they bring up for this,
43:33
Speaker 4: they got to get rid of Beao too, dude. Just
43:35
Speaker 4: these guys that they're bringing up can possibly be as
43:38
Speaker 4: bad as BeO. So like, let's just bring them all up.
43:41
Speaker 4: Let's let's go with the rotation of Suarez and then
43:44
Speaker 4: all the young guys that that would be my preference
43:46
Speaker 4: right now until Crochet and Gray come back. Let's just
43:50
Speaker 4: do it that way. But anyway, both of those pitchers
43:55
Speaker 4: have very similar arsenals Bennett and Rivera. I think I
44:00
Speaker 4: said his name is. They both have like not a
44:02
Speaker 4: deep pitch mix though they both throw like mid nineties fastballs,
44:06
Speaker 4: and they both have a slider and a change up.
44:08
Speaker 4: Then they mix in to try to keep batters, you know,
44:12
Speaker 4: off kilter and whatever. But they're both decent pitchers. They
44:14
Speaker 4: both have pretty good numbers in the minors. So whicheveryone
44:18
Speaker 4: gets called up might actually be able to win this
44:20
Speaker 4: game and actually pitch better than Borrows at least in
44:24
Speaker 4: this game, you know what I mean. So I don't
44:25
Speaker 4: think it's like a non starter to play the Red
44:28
Speaker 4: Sox here, assuming that it will be one of those
44:30
Speaker 4: two guys. Bennett is trying to work his way back
44:33
Speaker 4: from having Tommy John surgery though, and I think he
44:36
Speaker 4: is a little bit older than Rivera if I remember correctly.
44:40
Speaker 4: But this game is very, very hard to predict. Now,
44:43
Speaker 4: the Red Sox, the record is so bad that the
44:47
Speaker 4: public probably wants nothing to do with them at this point.
44:49
Speaker 4: The money is indicating on the Red Sox, despite having
44:52
Speaker 4: undecided on the mound here. Although I told you I
44:54
Speaker 4: think it's gonna be either Rivera or Bennett, fifty eight
44:58
Speaker 4: percent of the tickets around Houston, some of the cash
45:00
Speaker 4: on the Red Sox money looks like it is backing
45:03
Speaker 4: the Red Sox. Now, like I said, the Red Sox
45:06
Speaker 4: do have the way better bullpen. Red Sox have the
45:09
Speaker 4: fourth best bullpen whips. That's been the only good thing
45:12
Speaker 4: about the team this year is the bullpen has been
45:14
Speaker 4: pretty good. Houston's bullpen has been horrible, absolutely horrible, by far,
45:20
Speaker 4: the worst bullpen in baseball in both Era and WHIPS,
45:23
Speaker 4: so the Red Sox have a huge bullpen advantage here.
45:26
Speaker 4: Houston has the offensive edge. They're top three in ops
45:30
Speaker 4: right now. Red Sox are bottom three, so yeah, but
45:34
Speaker 4: the pitching can counter that. I think I will lean
45:37
Speaker 4: to the Red Sox here. I know it's a return
45:39
Speaker 4: home spot, but Houston, I mean, their bullpen is just
45:43
Speaker 4: totally unbackable and the fact that they used a bunch
45:45
Speaker 4: of it yesterday. I had to play two games yesterday.
45:50
Speaker 4: You know what, the best way to play this game
45:51
Speaker 4: is probably Red Sox over their team total because that
45:54
Speaker 4: takes the Red Sox pitching completely out of the equation.
45:58
Speaker 4: As far as who's gonna start for the Red Sox
46:01
Speaker 4: over their team total makes a lot of sense to
46:03
Speaker 4: me in this game. The total is fairly high, it's
46:05
Speaker 4: in the nine to nine and a half range. That's
46:08
Speaker 4: what I would do, because this is a Red Sox
46:10
Speaker 4: offense that is better than they look so far. They
46:12
Speaker 4: had two really bad offensive performances to finish that last series,
46:17
Speaker 4: and I know returning home having a day off can
46:19
Speaker 4: slow your offense down a bit. But this is a very,
46:22
Speaker 4: very advantageous pitching situation as far as well, it's advantageous
46:29
Speaker 4: to the Red Sox to be able to hit the
46:31
Speaker 4: pitching they're going up against. Is what I mean to say, Burrows,
46:35
Speaker 4: you know that they're familiar with it. This win and
46:36
Speaker 4: then a horrible bullpen. The Red Sox have to score
46:40
Speaker 4: runs in this game, man, so that's probably what I
46:42
Speaker 4: would do. Red Sox team total over makes sense in
46:45
Speaker 4: that game. Salamahayak and Sophia Vergara, No, it's Marina Backer,
46:52
Speaker 4: and I'm pretty sure is who I was thinking of.
46:54
Speaker 4: That Ai woman there looks exactly like her pretty much.
46:57
Speaker 4: And I like Marina over Alama and Sophia, So there
47:01
Speaker 4: you go. I think they're both overrated and Marina Backer
47:03
Speaker 4: an underrated. Next up, Philadelphia at Miami. Philadelphia played two
47:07
Speaker 4: games yesterday and they literally used everyone out of their bullpen.
47:12
Speaker 4: Now they are starting a road trip, which normally I
47:14
Speaker 4: would say that's a focused spot, but you cannot back
47:16
Speaker 4: Philadelphia coming off of playing two games yesterday and having
47:20
Speaker 4: used literally everybody in their bullpen. You just can't do it.
47:24
Speaker 4: They're unbackable here. Miami does have the better bullpen, and
47:28
Speaker 4: they were rested yesterday in Miami at ninth in bullpen
47:31
Speaker 4: whip Philadelphia eighteenth. Hitting wise, the teams are kind of close.
47:36
Speaker 4: Miami's fallen off a little bit. They're where are they
47:38
Speaker 4: at now fourteenth. Philadelphia is still twenty seventh though, But
47:44
Speaker 4: you gotta think Philadelphia again. I keep saying their offense
47:47
Speaker 4: is better than what they've looked like so far. Now
47:50
Speaker 4: for Miami, though, they were turning over from a road trip,
47:52
Speaker 4: because of course they are, they're traveling cross country. They
47:55
Speaker 4: just beat the Dodgers two games in a row to
47:57
Speaker 4: win that series. I don't think you could beat Miami
48:00
Speaker 4: in this game either. Man returning on from a road
48:03
Speaker 4: trip bad spot. You might get distracted. Although they probably
48:07
Speaker 4: won't overlook Philadelphia just because it is a divisional series,
48:09
Speaker 4: but Philadelphia's really been struggling so far this season, so
48:14
Speaker 4: maybe not. But then again, it could be a letdown
48:16
Speaker 4: spot for Miami as well, after beating the Dodgers twice
48:19
Speaker 4: and almost sweeping them. So you know, I can't back
48:25
Speaker 4: either of these teams here. Miami does have some advantages
48:28
Speaker 4: with the rest. Zach Wheeler, though, is pitching for Philadelphia.
48:32
Speaker 4: He just came back. He's got a three point six
48:34
Speaker 4: ERA one point two whip. He's made one start so
48:37
Speaker 4: far and it wasn't easy. It was against the Braves
48:39
Speaker 4: who have been hitting well. He went five innings, only
48:42
Speaker 4: allowed two hour in runs, six strikeouts, three walks is
48:44
Speaker 4: a little bit concerning, but three hits allowed. I think
48:48
Speaker 4: Wheeler is pretty quickly going to be back and form.
48:51
Speaker 4: Man if I had to guess, he's a veteran pitcher,
48:55
Speaker 4: he's coming back from injury, but you know, he knows
48:58
Speaker 4: what he's doing out there. That start was not beat
49:00
Speaker 4: at all, So I think he is going to be
49:02
Speaker 4: back and form pretty quickly. The Marlins are a step
49:05
Speaker 4: down offensively from the Braves. His numbers overall are good
49:08
Speaker 4: against them. In forty at bats fourteen to one, strike
49:11
Speaker 4: out walk ratio, two fifty batting average allowed six forty
49:14
Speaker 4: three oh ps allowed. Wheeler is not somebody I'm looking
49:17
Speaker 4: to fade in this outing. You're a Perez is pitching
49:20
Speaker 4: from Miami, and I like Perez. I mean, he's all right, Perez.
49:25
Speaker 4: He's been really good at home this year so far,
49:27
Speaker 4: two point five ERA, So he's a guy you do
49:30
Speaker 4: want to back. When he's pitching at home. It's a
49:32
Speaker 4: more pitcher friendly park, I think in Miami as well.
49:35
Speaker 4: But overall his numbers are not great here four point
49:38
Speaker 4: six ERA, one point four whip, but then again better
49:41
Speaker 4: at home thirty three to fourteen strike out walk race. Yo,
49:46
Speaker 4: that's the concern. He's wild, dude, he walks too many guys.
49:48
Speaker 4: But he's walked two or fewer in all but one
49:51
Speaker 4: outing where he really struggled with his wildness against the Yankees.
49:55
Speaker 4: Other than that, he hasn't really been that bad. He's
49:56
Speaker 4: keeping his team in every game pretty much. They He's
49:59
Speaker 4: given up four or fewer earned runs than every outing
50:02
Speaker 4: thirty one and a third innings pitched so far. The
50:05
Speaker 4: walk number is still too high, though strike got rad
50:08
Speaker 4: is good and thirty hits allowed is not that bad either. Yeah. Overall,
50:11
Speaker 4: I like Perez, and I think he is somewhat backable
50:14
Speaker 4: at home going against Philly, though his numbers are not
50:17
Speaker 4: that good. But it's a really small twelve at bats
50:20
Speaker 4: sample size three to three, strike out walk ratio three
50:23
Speaker 4: thirty three average allowed, one fifty ops allowed, So I
50:27
Speaker 4: don't quite want to back Perez here. There are some
50:31
Speaker 4: arguments for an under, not in the full game. There's
50:35
Speaker 4: no way I would play under full game. But the
50:37
Speaker 4: arguments for the under early on would be that Miami's
50:40
Speaker 4: bats might be cool because they're turning over from a
50:42
Speaker 4: road trip going cross country. Whatever Philadelphia might be a
50:45
Speaker 4: little bit tired after yesterday's game. Games two games. Again,
50:50
Speaker 4: I would not include the bullpens, but there are some
50:52
Speaker 4: arguments here for an under first five innings in this game,
50:56
Speaker 4: and both starting pitchers could potentially pitch well here and
51:00
Speaker 4: maybe going a little bit overlooked right now because Wheeler
51:03
Speaker 4: people might not even realize he's back. We don't see
51:06
Speaker 4: the percentages on that total yet, but it looks like
51:08
Speaker 4: it has taken some money on the under. It flipped
51:10
Speaker 4: from eight juice to the over, to eight juice to
51:13
Speaker 4: the under basically, so yeah, I would probably lean first
51:17
Speaker 4: five inning under there. You know, I don't want to
51:21
Speaker 4: back Philly. Really, they're at minus one twenty or so.
51:25
Speaker 4: It dropped a little bit on the money line on them.
51:26
Speaker 4: They have sixty percent of tickets fifty percent of the
51:28
Speaker 4: cash on them. Again, these numbers all according to wager
51:32
Speaker 4: Talks odd screen, So the money looks like it's backing Miami,
51:36
Speaker 4: and yeah, Miami, if you're gonna play in Miami, you
51:38
Speaker 4: definitely want to make it a full game play hope
51:41
Speaker 4: that Perez can keep them in the game, and then
51:43
Speaker 4: you get a bullpen edge with Miami later in the game.
51:46
Speaker 4: You know, what I mean, especially in the rest of
51:48
Speaker 4: the bullpens, like the amount of rests that they have.
51:51
Speaker 4: The other team with the unrested bullpen is San Francisco.
51:55
Speaker 4: They played two games yesterday, they were in Philly, and
51:58
Speaker 4: now they're trout. They're in the middle of a row
52:00
Speaker 4: road trip traveling to Tampa Bay. Now they're not in
52:02
Speaker 4: a good spot, dude, mid road trip, So yeah, you know,
52:07
Speaker 4: that's bad. Coming off a fairly big series against Philadelphia,
52:10
Speaker 4: played two games yesterday, one game going into extras. That's bad.
52:15
Speaker 4: Tampa Bay, though, they're returning over from a road trip,
52:17
Speaker 4: but it's not as bad because the road trip was
52:19
Speaker 4: only a single series trip to Cleveland. The one bad thing, though,
52:24
Speaker 4: is that Tampa Bay lost a six game win streak
52:26
Speaker 4: by losing to Cleveland two days ago. And you know,
52:29
Speaker 4: I talk about this when a team loses a wind
52:31
Speaker 4: streak a lot of times, that will hang them over
52:33
Speaker 4: and they won't play well in the next game because
52:35
Speaker 4: it's like that momentum completely got stopped. So I don't
52:38
Speaker 4: like that, and I don't love that they're returning on
52:40
Speaker 4: from the road, but it's not as bad because they're
52:44
Speaker 4: returning home from just a single road trip, single series
52:47
Speaker 4: road trip. They have arrested bullpen, which San Francisco does not.
52:51
Speaker 4: San Francisco use everybody out of their bullpen yesterday, pretty
52:54
Speaker 4: much kind of a short staff bullpen. It looks like
52:57
Speaker 4: here those six guys, they use them all. That's not good.
53:01
Speaker 4: Although San Francisco's bullpen generally is better significantly right now
53:05
Speaker 4: than Tampa. San Francisco's tenth in whip, but they have
53:08
Speaker 4: one of the best bullpen the Rays. I think they
53:10
Speaker 4: are a top several bullpen in baseball. Tampa's bullpen's been bad,
53:15
Speaker 4: but they are actually getting better. Their ERA is now
53:17
Speaker 4: lower than five. Way to go Tampa again, I kept saying,
53:21
Speaker 4: I don't think their bullpen is that horrendous. Like their
53:24
Speaker 4: numbers were so bad to start the season. I was like, yeah,
53:27
Speaker 4: they're gonna improve a little bit from that. They're at
53:30
Speaker 4: twenty first now and with the rest that they have,
53:33
Speaker 4: I think you could argue the bullpens are kind of
53:36
Speaker 4: close in this game. Closer than you would think, because
53:38
Speaker 4: normally I would give the edge to San Francisco. Hitting wise,
53:42
Speaker 4: you have to give the edge to Tampa. They've been
53:45
Speaker 4: hitting decently, although they've fallen off a little bit. They're
53:47
Speaker 4: in the middle of the pack at sixteenth. San Francisco
53:50
Speaker 4: they just continue to struggle to hit at twenty ninth,
53:53
Speaker 4: so Tampa does have the better offense here. Robbie Ray
53:57
Speaker 4: is pitching for San Francisco, though he's been one of
53:59
Speaker 4: their better pitchers two point seventy Ray, one point one
54:02
Speaker 4: four whip. He's been a little bit worse on the
54:05
Speaker 4: road though, well not even a little bit. He's got
54:07
Speaker 4: an ERA two runs higher on the road. It's still
54:10
Speaker 4: not horrible though at four point nine, but he is
54:13
Speaker 4: definitely more beatable away from home. He pitches better at
54:17
Speaker 4: home in that picture friendly environment. You know a lot
54:20
Speaker 4: of pitchers do, especially yeah when they're on a team
54:24
Speaker 4: that has a pitcher friendly stadium. His overall numbers, the
54:28
Speaker 4: walk number is really the one problem here. He's got
54:30
Speaker 4: thirty five strike outs in thirty three and a third innings.
54:32
Speaker 4: That's good. Twenty four hits allowed as good. Fourteen walks
54:36
Speaker 4: is the problem. He's he's walked three or more in
54:38
Speaker 4: every outing except one in April, but he's keeping runs
54:41
Speaker 4: off the board. He's allowed three or four runs in
54:44
Speaker 4: every outing, and that was only one outing at Washington
54:48
Speaker 4: Washington does hit pretty well at home, so Ray. You know, overall,
54:52
Speaker 4: his numbers are pretty good against Tampa Bay Ray against
54:56
Speaker 4: the Rays, oh my god, his numbers are they're they're
55:00
Speaker 4: fine against Tampa and fifty three at bats. They only
55:02
Speaker 4: have six hitters who have faced him before, thirteen strikeouts,
55:06
Speaker 4: four walks. That's not bad. Three of them to d
55:08
Speaker 4: As as well. Who's the only hitter in their lineup? Well,
55:11
Speaker 4: actually it's him and Mullins both hit him pretty well.
55:13
Speaker 4: Nobody else does. He's a lot of two forty five
55:16
Speaker 4: batting average to them in an eight oh W eight
55:17
Speaker 4: ops because Diaz and Mullens have combined for three home
55:21
Speaker 4: runs off him. But his numbers are not that bad.
55:23
Speaker 4: In this matchup, Shane McClanahan is pitching for the Rays.
55:27
Speaker 4: He's got okay numbers here, three point nine to one ERA,
55:30
Speaker 4: one point two to six WHIP. And again you got
55:33
Speaker 4: to take into account the fact that he's returning home
55:35
Speaker 4: from missing like multiple returning, not returning home, returning to
55:39
Speaker 4: roll It is his home major League baseball. He's returning
55:42
Speaker 4: to major League baseball after multiple seasons dealing with injuries.
55:46
Speaker 4: So he's had like Tommy John all this stuff. He's
55:48
Speaker 4: missed a couple of seasons, so you got to take
55:51
Speaker 4: that into account. But he was really good prior to
55:53
Speaker 4: his injuries. He's been good at home this year to era.
55:57
Speaker 4: I think only in one home start though No. Two
55:59
Speaker 4: against the Cubs in Minnesota, so he's been a little
56:02
Speaker 4: bit better at home. His walk rate is really the
56:06
Speaker 4: problem right now. He's got twenty five strikeouts in twenty
56:08
Speaker 4: three innings. Sixteen hits a lot, but thirteen walks. And
56:12
Speaker 4: he's also not going that deep into his outings yet.
56:14
Speaker 4: I think they're trying to ease him back in So Tampa,
56:17
Speaker 4: I mean, dude, they really they don't overwork their pitching staff,
56:20
Speaker 4: you know what I mean. Like they limit Rasmussen even
56:23
Speaker 4: though he's probably their best pitcher. McClanahan, they're limiting him
56:27
Speaker 4: to basically five innings every outing. They don't want him
56:29
Speaker 4: to get overworked, especially coming back from injury. Now it
56:33
Speaker 4: makes sense, but the problem is Tampa's bullpen has been
56:36
Speaker 4: struggling this year, although I think they're better than they look,
56:39
Speaker 4: like I said McClanahan. Though, the worst thing for him
56:43
Speaker 4: is his matchup numbers are actually bad against the Giants.
56:46
Speaker 4: Believe it or not, But it's only four hitters who
56:49
Speaker 4: have faced him before, and of course Devers has the
56:51
Speaker 4: most at bats against him because he was in the division.
56:54
Speaker 4: Devers actually is really good against him, nine for twenty
56:57
Speaker 4: two with a double, a home run, and a walk
56:59
Speaker 4: and strikeouts overall and fifty one at bats he's a
57:02
Speaker 4: lot three walks, twelve strikeouts, two ninety four batting average
57:06
Speaker 4: allowed on eight twenty four ohps. So overall, the Giants
57:10
Speaker 4: hitters who have faced them have done pretty well against them.
57:13
Speaker 4: So I think Ray may have a little bit of
57:15
Speaker 4: a matchup edge there, But I don't know, man, I
57:19
Speaker 4: think Tampa has too many other matchup edges in this game.
57:22
Speaker 4: The fact that San Francisco, you know, they played two
57:27
Speaker 4: games yesterday, that is definitely a huge concern. I would
57:30
Speaker 4: not want to back San Francisco here. San Francisco is
57:35
Speaker 4: getting the money though, sixty percent of tickets, eighty six
57:37
Speaker 4: percent of the cash on them. Even though normally I
57:40
Speaker 4: like their bullpen, I don't think I like it here.
57:42
Speaker 1: Man.
57:42
Speaker 4: I think I'm gonna lean Tampa Bay slightly. I just
57:44
Speaker 4: I can't back any of these teams that I'm gonna
57:47
Speaker 4: you know, I lean against every team that played two
57:50
Speaker 4: games yesterday, against teams that you know, none of the
57:54
Speaker 4: teams that they're playing against played yesterday, you know what
57:56
Speaker 4: I mean, So there is a huge rest advantage for
57:59
Speaker 4: those teams, but it is factoring into the line. Tampa
58:01
Speaker 4: is in the minus one forties range here, and maybe
58:04
Speaker 4: McClanahan doesn't totally deserve to be favored by that. Like you,
58:09
Speaker 4: you may very well be getting. You might be getting
58:11
Speaker 4: the better starting pitcher as an underdog here with Ray.
58:14
Speaker 4: So I mean, there might be an argument to be
58:16
Speaker 4: had for playing San Francisco in the first five innings
58:19
Speaker 4: here and just go with Ray to outpitch McClanahan, because
58:22
Speaker 4: that could definitely happen, So maybe you look at it
58:26
Speaker 4: that way. The total is surprisingly low at seven and
58:29
Speaker 4: a half, but that's a good San Francisco. They can't
58:31
Speaker 4: score and their bullpen has been decent, all right. Toronto
58:36
Speaker 4: at Minnesota, these teams actually played yesterday, so they already
58:40
Speaker 4: have started this series, and Minnesota won the game seven
58:45
Speaker 4: to one. I don't know what that was. Man Goussman
58:48
Speaker 4: apparently did not do well for Toronto, even though he
58:51
Speaker 4: is their best pitcher.
58:52
Speaker 1: I don't know.
58:53
Speaker 4: What happened in that game. Toronto's bullpen these three guys
58:56
Speaker 4: out of it. Yesterday Minnesota used three as well. These
59:01
Speaker 4: are not great bullpens, though Minnesotas is particularly bad. Minnesota's
59:05
Speaker 4: twenty seventh and bullpen whip putting more than one and
59:08
Speaker 4: a half guys on base an inning and their eras
59:12
Speaker 4: above five. They were like a completely unbackable bullpen and
59:16
Speaker 4: they helped us out with that Seattle play during their
59:18
Speaker 4: previous series. Toronto's bullpen's on the way up a little bit.
59:21
Speaker 4: They're thirteenth, not a horrible bullpen, so Toronto does get
59:26
Speaker 4: the bullpen edge here. Hitting wise, the Twins have actually
59:29
Speaker 4: been the better offense so far this year. They're at
59:31
Speaker 4: sixteenth and the Blue Jays are twenty fifth. But Toronto's
59:35
Speaker 4: been dealing with injuries. Man, that's kind of the name
59:37
Speaker 4: of the game there. I don't know for sure that
59:40
Speaker 4: Minnesota really has the better offense, although they did add
59:43
Speaker 4: Josh Bell this year and whatever. This pitching matchup though
59:46
Speaker 4: Patrick Korb been especially for Toronto. His numbers are pretty
59:50
Speaker 4: decent three point seven two ERA, one point two to
59:53
Speaker 4: four WHIP. He's actually been really good on the road
59:56
Speaker 4: believe it or not. One point six nine era on
59:58
Speaker 4: the road so far is very strange. He's actually been
1:00:01
Speaker 4: terrible at home, and he's on the road here, so
1:00:05
Speaker 4: he might actually pitch better because he's on the road here. Overall,
1:00:08
Speaker 4: sixteen to six, strike a walk ratio, eighteen h it's
1:00:11
Speaker 4: a lot of nineteen and a third innings. He does
1:00:13
Speaker 4: not have bad numbers, and Toronto's won three of his
1:00:15
Speaker 4: four outings, although he does not have a win himself
1:00:17
Speaker 4: in any of them. But he's actually been a serviceable pitcher,
1:00:21
Speaker 4: even though you know me, I don't like Corabin. He's
1:00:23
Speaker 4: old at this point. He's been bad for years. Really.
1:00:26
Speaker 4: He had a little bit of a resurgence with Texas
1:00:29
Speaker 4: last year, but I thought it was kind of just
1:00:31
Speaker 4: the Texas pitching phenomenon there, where their pitchers just all
1:00:34
Speaker 4: seem to pitch better with that pitching staff and in
1:00:37
Speaker 4: Texas's pitcher friendly park. So I don't really love Korb
1:00:41
Speaker 4: and I don't trust him. His numbers against Minnesota are
1:00:43
Speaker 4: not good. In seventy four at bats, eighteen to ten,
1:00:46
Speaker 4: strike a walk ratio two eighty four, batting average allowed,
1:00:49
Speaker 4: nine to ninety one ops. Those are some pretty bad numbers.
1:00:54
Speaker 4: Josh Bell, by the way, does have three on runs
1:00:56
Speaker 4: off him, even though he's only four for eighteen core.
1:01:00
Speaker 4: I think he is fatable here, even though he has
1:01:02
Speaker 4: been better on the road. Simeon Woods Richardson has pictured
1:01:05
Speaker 4: form Minnesota. He has not been very good at all
1:01:07
Speaker 4: this year. Six point three ERA, one point seven whip.
1:01:11
Speaker 4: He's been pretty bad at home and on the road,
1:01:13
Speaker 4: although he's actually he is a little bit better at
1:01:15
Speaker 4: home five point four ERA, but that's still not good overall.
1:01:19
Speaker 4: Fifteen to thirteen strikeout walk ratio is pretty bad, although
1:01:23
Speaker 4: he's not a strikeout guy. He's gone thirty innings, so
1:01:27
Speaker 4: the walk number is not really that bad. It's just
1:01:29
Speaker 4: the it's not good. But he's given up thirty eight hits.
1:01:32
Speaker 4: He's been too hittable and the strikeout rate is just
1:01:35
Speaker 4: too low. He just doesn't fool guys, and his walk
1:01:38
Speaker 4: rate has actually gone up recently. He's allowed three walks
1:01:42
Speaker 4: apiece in his last three outings, so that's not good.
1:01:46
Speaker 4: And Minnesota's lost all but one of his starts, which
1:01:49
Speaker 4: hilariously was of course against the Mats, where he actually
1:01:52
Speaker 4: was able to give his team a win in that game,
1:01:55
Speaker 4: even though he didn't even get the win in it.
1:01:58
Speaker 4: Toronto does knock him around. He has really bad numbers
1:02:01
Speaker 4: against Toronto in fifty six at bats seven to four,
1:02:04
Speaker 4: strike out walk ratio three to ninety three, batting average allowed,
1:02:07
Speaker 4: one THOWO thirty seven ops. This game almost is on
1:02:11
Speaker 4: my card, man. I like the over. You know you
1:02:15
Speaker 4: knew where that was going. I would play this game over.
1:02:18
Speaker 4: That's the way I would do it. We don't see
1:02:19
Speaker 4: the percentages on it yet. The total still basically sitting
1:02:23
Speaker 4: at eight and a half. It hasn't really moved. You know.
1:02:26
Speaker 4: If you can find the eight and a half at
1:02:27
Speaker 4: like minus one fifteen and you don't even have to
1:02:29
Speaker 4: go over nine, that's what I would do. I think
1:02:32
Speaker 4: over nine is probably okay as well. There oh, here
1:02:35
Speaker 4: comes the money. Sixty percent right on Q, sixty percent
1:02:38
Speaker 4: of tickets, ninety three percent of the cash on the over.
1:02:41
Speaker 4: So there you go. Market Reid actually seems to agree
1:02:44
Speaker 4: with me on the total there. But then again, public
1:02:47
Speaker 4: does like to play overs and whatever. But that game
1:02:49
Speaker 4: looks like an over to me. You know. The home
1:02:53
Speaker 4: road splits don't quite favor it, like Corbin's are pretty
1:02:58
Speaker 4: extreme so far. But it is a small stamp be sizes.
1:03:00
Speaker 4: So those are my thoughts there, Dodgers at Saint Louis,
1:03:04
Speaker 4: this is going to be one of my plays. We
1:03:07
Speaker 4: might have a bad day here, dude, I don't know,
1:03:09
Speaker 4: because we're going with two run line plays on these favorites.
1:03:13
Speaker 4: I'm hoping we can get it done here. Man. We
1:03:16
Speaker 4: are going to play the Dodgers here minus one and
1:03:18
Speaker 4: a half at about minus one oh five. Here, at
1:03:21
Speaker 4: least you get all there at bats here. We know
1:03:23
Speaker 4: they have a great offense. I don't buy Saint Louis
1:03:26
Speaker 4: at all, dude. Saint Louis eighteen and thirteen, but they're
1:03:29
Speaker 4: below five hundred at home, by the way, so they
1:03:31
Speaker 4: haven't even been that good at home. Dodgers are pretty
1:03:34
Speaker 4: good on the road at eight and five, So there
1:03:37
Speaker 4: you go. By the way, I didn't even look who's
1:03:39
Speaker 4: the other team. I'm oh, yeah, I'm laying the run
1:03:41
Speaker 4: line with Milwaukee on the road here. Yeah, Milwaukee is
1:03:43
Speaker 4: six and six on the road, by the way. Washington
1:03:46
Speaker 4: is terrible at home, three and ten. Washington, by the way,
1:03:49
Speaker 4: I think they score a lot at home, but they
1:03:50
Speaker 4: give up a ton of runs. I think Washington actually
1:03:53
Speaker 4: has the worst home pitching out of any team in baseball,
1:03:57
Speaker 4: So I forgot to mention that. So we're fading that
1:03:59
Speaker 4: aspect Washington as well. They get knocked around at home anyway.
1:04:04
Speaker 4: Saint Louis is not good. They're not good at home.
1:04:07
Speaker 4: I think they're absolutely fake. They're coming back from Pittsburgh here.
1:04:11
Speaker 4: They just swept Pittsburgh. They just beat Paul Skeins yesterday. Man,
1:04:15
Speaker 4: I mean, you gotta think they're flying a bit high here,
1:04:17
Speaker 4: and yeah, they should show up for a game against
1:04:19
Speaker 4: the Dodgers. But you're coming off a divisional sweep. You
1:04:22
Speaker 4: pulled off multiple upsets. I think they pulled off an
1:04:25
Speaker 4: upset in every game in that series. I think they
1:04:27
Speaker 4: were an underdog in every game. Saint Louis is not
1:04:30
Speaker 4: as good as their record looks. The Dodgers are definitely
1:04:33
Speaker 4: the best team in baseball. Saint Louis is returning home.
1:04:36
Speaker 4: I know it's not that big of a deal returning
1:04:38
Speaker 4: home from a single series trip to Pittsburgh, but still
1:04:42
Speaker 4: LA is going to show up focus here, man. They're
1:04:44
Speaker 4: starting a road trip. They had yesterday off, so they
1:04:48
Speaker 4: have a rest advantage here, and they lost two games
1:04:51
Speaker 4: in a row. To Miami. Dude, So you're getting an
1:04:54
Speaker 4: LA team that lost as a big favorite twice against
1:04:57
Speaker 4: the Saint Louis team that won as a favorite multiple
1:05:00
Speaker 4: times in a row. That's a spot that I do
1:05:03
Speaker 4: like to look for the favorite to mounts back. That's
1:05:06
Speaker 4: what we're doing here. But I also like the matchup
1:05:08
Speaker 4: statistics here. But yes, the Dodgers have the rest, they're
1:05:11
Speaker 4: starting a road trip, but usually you are going to
1:05:13
Speaker 4: be focused to start the road trip. Saint Louis I
1:05:17
Speaker 4: think used the decent amount of their relief pitching yesterday. Yeah,
1:05:20
Speaker 4: they used a lot of guys. So you have a
1:05:22
Speaker 4: rested Dodger bullpen and you have a Saint Louis bullpen
1:05:24
Speaker 4: that sucks anyway. And they used five relief pitchers yesterday,
1:05:28
Speaker 4: So good luck to their bullpen here. I think the
1:05:31
Speaker 4: Dodgers could definitely get us enough runs here. Look at
1:05:35
Speaker 4: the bullpen's Saint Louis. They're twenty fourth in bullpen whip,
1:05:39
Speaker 4: almost one and a half guys on basin inning, terrible,
1:05:42
Speaker 4: they're eras over five. They're a terrible bullpen. The Dodgers
1:05:45
Speaker 4: are actually third in bullpen whip, and well, I don't
1:05:48
Speaker 4: think the Dodgers' woopen is that good. They're the better
1:05:51
Speaker 4: bullpen here. They're eras in the threes and they're rested,
1:05:54
Speaker 4: So yes, Dodgers bulpen does have the edge here. We
1:05:58
Speaker 4: know the Dodgers are the best offense in baseball, while
1:06:01
Speaker 4: Saint Louis is eighth. Right now, I don't really even
1:06:04
Speaker 4: know if I quite buy that, but the Dodgers' offense
1:06:06
Speaker 4: is great. Even though they have some injuries going on,
1:06:08
Speaker 4: it hasn't even really done that much to hurt them,
1:06:12
Speaker 4: although I know they didn't play that well in their
1:06:14
Speaker 4: last couple of games. But Mookie Betts is really the
1:06:16
Speaker 4: big injury on their offense. But they have such a
1:06:19
Speaker 4: deep team, dude, Like, I don't think that matters that much.
1:06:22
Speaker 4: Like their hitting is still really good without him, so whatever.
1:06:27
Speaker 4: And they're coming off a couple of bad games where
1:06:29
Speaker 4: they didn't score a lot, and we're gonna back Emmett
1:06:31
Speaker 4: Shean here, and I think he is pretty backable. I
1:06:33
Speaker 4: like Emmtt Sheen. People might not want to play him
1:06:36
Speaker 4: because his numbers don't really look that good, although he
1:06:39
Speaker 4: is on the Dodger so the Dodgers still probably will
1:06:41
Speaker 4: be public here. Four point seven to eighty r and
1:06:44
Speaker 4: one point two to five whip. That whip is not
1:06:46
Speaker 4: that bad, like it indicates the cra should be a
1:06:48
Speaker 4: little bit better than that. I know he's been a
1:06:51
Speaker 4: little bit worse on the road, but his home road
1:06:53
Speaker 4: splits are not really that bad. But if you dig
1:06:55
Speaker 4: into his numbers a bit, he's not bad. Twenty eight
1:06:58
Speaker 4: to nine strike out walk ratio, one hit a lot
1:07:00
Speaker 4: for inning, so like, his numbers are not even bad.
1:07:04
Speaker 4: And since his first two starts against Arizona and Washington,
1:07:07
Speaker 4: he's allowed three or fourer earned runs in all the
1:07:10
Speaker 4: outings since then, his last three, even though he got
1:07:12
Speaker 4: no run support really in the last two outings. But
1:07:15
Speaker 4: he's been good. He had ten strikeouts in his last
1:07:17
Speaker 4: outing with one walk against a very potent Cubs lineup,
1:07:21
Speaker 4: So that does indicate that she and he's got good
1:07:24
Speaker 4: stuff right now. The one concern is he threw a
1:07:26
Speaker 4: hundred pitches, and the first time a guy does that,
1:07:29
Speaker 4: he might have a step back. But he threw almost
1:07:32
Speaker 4: one hundred pitches against Washington. He pitched better in the
1:07:35
Speaker 4: next game against Texas, and I know Texas's offense isn't
1:07:38
Speaker 4: that good, but still that makes me less concerned about
1:07:41
Speaker 4: the fact that he threw a hundred pitches. Yeah, it
1:07:44
Speaker 4: was a good game from him, but they also lost
1:07:46
Speaker 4: that game, So I don't know if there's really gonna
1:07:48
Speaker 4: be a let down there. I think she And is good, man.
1:07:50
Speaker 4: I've been looking at as like underlying numbers for a
1:07:53
Speaker 4: while now, and of like, I'm like, yeah, I kind
1:07:55
Speaker 4: of like what I see, So I don't think he's bad.
1:07:58
Speaker 4: Plus Miami, Wait, no, we're not facing Miami who were
1:08:01
Speaker 4: facing Saint Louis. Sorry. Saint Louis does not hit him
1:08:05
Speaker 4: well fifteen at bats, so they're not that familiar with him.
1:08:08
Speaker 4: They have one extra base hitoff of butt Urreus double
1:08:11
Speaker 4: oh no two sorry, Gorman has a home run off
1:08:14
Speaker 4: him Nolan Gorman, not Mike Gorman, the Celtics commentator. I
1:08:19
Speaker 4: don't even want to talk about the Celtics. Five strikeouts,
1:08:21
Speaker 4: no walks against Saint Louis for she and one thirty
1:08:25
Speaker 4: three batting average allowed five thirty three oh ps. Those
1:08:28
Speaker 4: are pretty good stats, dude. I think we get definitely
1:08:30
Speaker 4: back Shean over Matthew Libratrre who his numbers are significantly worse, dude,
1:08:37
Speaker 4: even though his era looks very similar four point seven
1:08:39
Speaker 4: to five. I don't think he's a good pitcher. One
1:08:42
Speaker 4: point five to five whip that's not good, and he
1:08:44
Speaker 4: is pretty bad at home. Is the Ray's one run
1:08:47
Speaker 4: higher at home this year so far five point one two,
1:08:50
Speaker 4: So he is fatable at home. He's in bad form
1:08:54
Speaker 4: right now. He's allowed four or more in runs in
1:08:56
Speaker 4: his last in three of his last four outings. He
1:08:59
Speaker 4: just got knocked round bad at home against Seattle. Luckily
1:09:03
Speaker 4: because we faded him. We won with Seattle in that game.
1:09:06
Speaker 4: And that was a game where Wu actually did horrible
1:09:09
Speaker 4: in that game. But I think WU was gonna bounce back. Hint, hint,
1:09:13
Speaker 4: because I have one more play here, Libra Tory. I
1:09:17
Speaker 4: don't see it. I don't think he's good. Nineteen to
1:09:19
Speaker 4: eleven strike out walk race here, that's bad. And thirty
1:09:22
Speaker 4: to third innings also, thirty six hits allowed, putting way
1:09:25
Speaker 4: too many guys on base, plus he's allowed eight home runs. Yeah,
1:09:29
Speaker 4: I'm not seeing it, man, I don't think he's good.
1:09:31
Speaker 4: The fact that he got shelled like that in Seattle
1:09:34
Speaker 4: probably a bad sorry. In Saint Louis against Seattle, probably
1:09:38
Speaker 4: a bad sign. Because Saint Louis is a pretty pitcher
1:09:40
Speaker 4: friendly park, although you could say the same thing about Wu.
1:09:43
Speaker 4: But Wu is a very proven pitcher, so we know
1:09:47
Speaker 4: Wu is good. We don't know if Libratory is good.
1:09:50
Speaker 4: And I'm gonna lean towards him not being good. And
1:09:52
Speaker 4: he's got to go up against a very powerful Dodger
1:09:55
Speaker 4: lineup here. Thirty nine a career at bats against him,
1:09:58
Speaker 4: four to three strike out walk race year. These numbers
1:10:00
Speaker 4: are not horrible too, eighty two batting average a lot
1:10:02
Speaker 4: at seven eighteen ops, so you know he doesn't get
1:10:06
Speaker 4: completely obliterated by the Dodgers. But that's still not great.
1:10:10
Speaker 4: So let's do it. Let's play the Dodgers. It's a
1:10:12
Speaker 4: combination of the situation and the pitching. The money looks
1:10:18
Speaker 4: like it's still disagreeing with me on some of these games.
1:10:20
Speaker 4: It's agreeing with me on the Dodgers now though sixty
1:10:23
Speaker 4: percent of ticket, sixty three percent of the cash on them.
1:10:26
Speaker 4: You know they're in the minus one eighty or so
1:10:29
Speaker 4: range here. But run line is the way I'm doing it,
1:10:32
Speaker 4: just to get the price down. Let's get it done, man, Yeah,
1:10:37
Speaker 4: So hopefully we can get these these plays here. Dirty
1:10:41
Speaker 4: sock what's up? Thanks for hanging out. All Right, I
1:10:46
Speaker 4: gotta take a break at some point here. Maybe usually
1:10:48
Speaker 4: I do it with five games left on the board.
1:10:50
Speaker 4: All right, fuck it, let's do it. I have one
1:10:52
Speaker 4: of my plays. My last play of the day is
1:10:54
Speaker 4: in the last game on Apple TV. You probably know
1:10:57
Speaker 4: what it is already, based on knowing me, knowing how
1:11:00
Speaker 4: what I think about these pictures and what I just said,
1:11:04
Speaker 4: you could probably guess what my final play is. But
1:11:06
Speaker 4: I'll be right back. We'll talk about that, and we'll
1:11:08
Speaker 4: talk about these playoff games. All right, next game up
1:12:33
Speaker 4: is I'm gonna zoom back in on this. What's the
1:12:37
Speaker 4: next game? Atlanta and Colorado? Get the headphones back on
1:12:44
Speaker 4: because I'm gonna have an outro as well here. All right, Yeah,
1:12:48
Speaker 4: Atlanta at Colorado. I mean, on the surface, it looks
1:12:51
Speaker 4: like it's a mismatch because Atlanta is the better team.
1:12:53
Speaker 4: But I don't know how about this pitching matchup. Atlanta
1:12:57
Speaker 4: did lose to Detroit yesterday, I believe yesterday afternoon, So
1:13:01
Speaker 4: they are starting a road trip here. Sometimes that's good
1:13:05
Speaker 4: to just get out of home start a road trip.
1:13:07
Speaker 4: A lot of times you are focused to start the
1:13:08
Speaker 4: road trip. But Atlanta already has huge padding in their division,
1:13:12
Speaker 4: like they're they could be a little bit in cruise
1:13:15
Speaker 4: control mode here. You know, Colorado is returning on from
1:13:19
Speaker 4: a road trip, so that's not good for Colorado though,
1:13:21
Speaker 4: and I believe they played yesterday as well against Cincinnati.
1:13:24
Speaker 4: Both teams played yesterday, but Colorado returning home from a
1:13:29
Speaker 4: road trip. You know, I don't like that when a
1:13:30
Speaker 4: team returns home from a road trip. Even though they
1:13:33
Speaker 4: just lost to Cincinnati. Colorado is not that great of
1:13:36
Speaker 4: a team either, So bad teams in a bad spot
1:13:39
Speaker 4: like that, returning over from a road trip tend to
1:13:41
Speaker 4: even fall into that distraction spot more, where teams get
1:13:45
Speaker 4: distracted they have to get back to family life, home life, whatever.
1:13:48
Speaker 4: That doesn't look good to me for Colorado. Colorado's bullpen
1:13:53
Speaker 4: used two guys yesterday. That's not bad. Their bullpen's actually
1:13:55
Speaker 4: been okay this year. Atlanta's has been good and they
1:13:58
Speaker 4: only use two relief pitchers yesterday. For Atlanta, they're number
1:14:03
Speaker 4: one in bullpen Whip. They've been one of the best
1:14:06
Speaker 4: bullpens in baseball so far, so they are the better
1:14:08
Speaker 4: bullpen here. Colorado has been okay at fourteenth I'm not
1:14:12
Speaker 4: quite sure that Colorado is really that good in the bullpen.
1:14:15
Speaker 4: Braves definitely do have the better bullpen, but Colorado's is
1:14:19
Speaker 4: not a bullpen that's like just a complete disaster. So
1:14:22
Speaker 4: at least there is that Atlanta has been second in
1:14:25
Speaker 4: offense and Colorado is actually tenth. So these teams have
1:14:28
Speaker 4: been able to hit, and you know, maybe they will
1:14:31
Speaker 4: hear we have a high total here. This is a
1:14:32
Speaker 4: course field game. Grant Holmes is on the mound for Atlanta.
1:14:36
Speaker 4: He's been okay this season three point six two ERA
1:14:40
Speaker 4: one point two to one whip believe it or not.
1:14:43
Speaker 4: He's actually been way better on the road this year
1:14:45
Speaker 4: two point oh eight roadyra. But he's pitching in course
1:14:49
Speaker 4: field here, man, and I looked, and he did not
1:14:51
Speaker 4: pitch in course field last year, so I don't know
1:14:53
Speaker 4: if he's ever pitched in coursefield, So he might still
1:14:56
Speaker 4: not pitch well here in last year. He was not
1:14:58
Speaker 4: good on the road last year. Grant Holmes was much
1:15:01
Speaker 4: better at home last year, So we're looking at a
1:15:05
Speaker 4: small sample size here, man, So I'm not totally sold
1:15:07
Speaker 4: on Holmes pitching on the road here. His numbers have
1:15:11
Speaker 4: been pretty good this year, though Atlanta's won the majority
1:15:14
Speaker 4: of his starts, four out of the six of them.
1:15:16
Speaker 4: He's allowed three or fewer earned runs in every outing,
1:15:19
Speaker 4: although some of these outings have been pretty short, some
1:15:22
Speaker 4: of them better than others. His walk number is kind
1:15:24
Speaker 4: of concerning though. Also his strikeout rates not that high.
1:15:28
Speaker 4: Twenty five strikeouts. I thought he was more of a
1:15:30
Speaker 4: strikeout guy. Not really though. Twenty five strikeouts in thirty
1:15:33
Speaker 4: two and a third innings that's not great. Fourteen walks,
1:15:36
Speaker 4: that's not great. His saving grace is he's not very hitable.
1:15:40
Speaker 4: Twenty five hits a lot. That's pretty good. Against Colorado,
1:15:44
Speaker 4: he does have really good numbers, but it was mostly
1:15:46
Speaker 4: I think one start last year in Atlanta where he
1:15:49
Speaker 4: dominated them. They're one for nineteen off and that one
1:15:52
Speaker 4: hit is a home run against by Brenton Doyle. He
1:15:56
Speaker 4: has fourteen strikeouts in nineteen at bats against them. That
1:16:00
Speaker 4: is unbelievable. Uh and two walks. That strike got race.
1:16:04
Speaker 4: I told you he's he's kind of known as a
1:16:06
Speaker 4: strike gooup pitcher. That ratio is insane. So overall, he's
1:16:10
Speaker 4: held Colorado in an OH fifty three batting average three
1:16:13
Speaker 4: fifty three ops, but he's not gonna do that well
1:16:17
Speaker 4: in this game and chorus Field, I don't think so.
1:16:21
Speaker 4: But I can't fade a guy that has matchup numbers
1:16:24
Speaker 4: like this either, you know what I mean. So I
1:16:27
Speaker 4: don't know what Holmes we're gonna get here, but I'm
1:16:29
Speaker 4: guessing he's gonna probably do okay in this game based
1:16:32
Speaker 4: on all that, even though he hasn't pitched in this
1:16:35
Speaker 4: stadium before Jose Quintana, I mean, he looks like he's
1:16:40
Speaker 4: on the verge of retirement a pitcher for the Rockies.
1:16:43
Speaker 4: Here it's been rocky. I mean, I know he's a veteran,
1:16:46
Speaker 4: he knows how to locate his pitches. But four point
1:16:49
Speaker 4: nine to one ERA, one point five to three whip
1:16:51
Speaker 4: that's not good. He hasn't really been locating this year. Really,
1:16:55
Speaker 4: nine strikeouts, eleven walks, that's really bad, although only seventeen
1:16:59
Speaker 4: hits allowed in eighteen in the third innings. But he's
1:17:01
Speaker 4: definitely struggling, dude, although he's not allowing that many runs
1:17:07
Speaker 4: for or fewer in every outing. I don't know, man,
1:17:10
Speaker 4: I don't know what we're gonna get out of him
1:17:11
Speaker 4: here at home. He has a seven point two ERA,
1:17:15
Speaker 4: so in course field. His numbers are bad, but it
1:17:18
Speaker 4: was one start. It was that one star where he
1:17:20
Speaker 4: did allow four earned runs. It was against the Dodgers,
1:17:23
Speaker 4: so maybe you have to give him a pass for that.
1:17:26
Speaker 4: But still he's kind of an extreme fly ball pitcher,
1:17:29
Speaker 4: and that is not good when you're pitching a course field.
1:17:32
Speaker 4: And Grant Homes, by the way, is also kind of
1:17:34
Speaker 4: a fly ball pitcher, so we could see some home
1:17:37
Speaker 4: runs in this game, some homes runs. I don't like it, man.
1:17:42
Speaker 4: I don't think either pitcher really is that great of
1:17:47
Speaker 4: like they're not suited to pitching course field really. Against Atlanta,
1:17:51
Speaker 4: Kintana has actually been okay. They have a lot of
1:17:54
Speaker 4: history against him. One hundred and twenty two at bats,
1:17:57
Speaker 4: twenty nine to eleven straight out walk race here two
1:17:59
Speaker 4: thirty bad average, seven nineteen ops. Those are not bad numbers.
1:18:03
Speaker 4: So I can't come in and actually, you know, I
1:18:08
Speaker 4: can't really recommend an over here. You know, I know
1:18:10
Speaker 4: it looks like it could be a higher scoring game maybe,
1:18:13
Speaker 4: but there are some positives with these pictures here. I
1:18:16
Speaker 4: don't think I could do that. Atlanta probably, I don't know, man,
1:18:21
Speaker 4: I mean, Atlanta's just laying such a price here minus
1:18:24
Speaker 4: one ninety, some books at minus two hundred. You can't
1:18:26
Speaker 4: lay a price like that with Atlanta. The over is
1:18:30
Speaker 4: getting the money seventy three percent of tickets, eighty eight
1:18:32
Speaker 4: percent of the cash on them. Although again I don't
1:18:35
Speaker 4: like trying to read this wager talk screen. Like I said,
1:18:38
Speaker 4: it throws me off, which again I'm fading the market
1:18:42
Speaker 4: read in multiple of these games here. So whatever, the
1:18:46
Speaker 4: money is back in Colorado here sixty six percent of tickets,
1:18:49
Speaker 4: eighty eight percent of the cash on them. I mean,
1:18:52
Speaker 4: I would think that Atlanta would be a public side here.
1:18:57
Speaker 4: You know, maybe there's I don't really think there's much
1:19:00
Speaker 4: of an argument for Colorado really here. I mean they
1:19:02
Speaker 4: were turning over from a road trip, Atlanta started a
1:19:05
Speaker 4: road trip. You know, Holmes has been better than Quintana.
1:19:10
Speaker 4: I don't know, man, I mean, Holmes has the better
1:19:13
Speaker 4: matchup numbers two. I think I would have to lean
1:19:15
Speaker 4: Atlanta here, but it's really really difficult to make that
1:19:18
Speaker 4: an actual play. I mean, if you want to go
1:19:20
Speaker 4: Atlanta over their team total or something like that, I
1:19:22
Speaker 4: guess you could do that, but you're gonna be asking
1:19:24
Speaker 4: them to score a lot of runs and maybe they won't.
1:19:27
Speaker 4: I don't know, man, you know, yeah, I don't know.
1:19:32
Speaker 4: I was gonna say there actually might be more arguments
1:19:34
Speaker 4: for an under in this game than an over, because
1:19:36
Speaker 4: the bullpens haven't been that bad, the starting pitching have
1:19:40
Speaker 4: turning pitchers have okay matchup numbers here, there might be
1:19:45
Speaker 4: more arguments for an under in this game than you
1:19:47
Speaker 4: would think. Total up to eleven. There it goes to eleven.
1:19:51
Speaker 4: I'm not gonna play that drop because it's too long,
1:19:53
Speaker 4: but yeah, whatever, Mets at Anaheim way too many games here, man.
1:19:58
Speaker 4: Anaheim's are turning over from a road trip. Every game
1:20:00
Speaker 4: on the road trip. Anaheim's on a six game losing streak.
1:20:03
Speaker 4: They've been playing horribly. They've lost ten of their last
1:20:06
Speaker 4: eleven games. They're better at home, I think, than on
1:20:09
Speaker 4: the road. But a lot of times like the public's
1:20:13
Speaker 4: instinct will be oh, the teams were turning home, they'll
1:20:15
Speaker 4: do better now that they're back at home. But that's
1:20:17
Speaker 4: not the way that it works. Man. I know it's
1:20:19
Speaker 4: embarrassing to get swept by the White Sox, but teams
1:20:22
Speaker 4: are turning home from road trips, especially crossing multiple time
1:20:25
Speaker 4: zones like this, I think Anaheim was off yesterday, but
1:20:28
Speaker 4: still the return home spot's bad. You can get distracted,
1:20:33
Speaker 4: you have to get back to home life. Whatever. Now,
1:20:35
Speaker 4: the Mets, I believe, are at a rest disadvantage because
1:20:37
Speaker 4: they did play yesterday. I'm pretty sure are losing to Washington,
1:20:40
Speaker 4: but they are starting a road trip. Problem is they're
1:20:43
Speaker 4: crossing the country, so and with a day less off,
1:20:48
Speaker 4: like a day fewer off than what Anaheim has, they're
1:20:51
Speaker 4: having to fly out there with less you know, with
1:20:56
Speaker 4: less time to do it, you know. So that's not
1:20:58
Speaker 4: that great. And I talk about this a lot. Yes
1:21:00
Speaker 4: when a team starts a road trip, especially after a
1:21:03
Speaker 4: bunch of losses at home, sometimes it is a positive.
1:21:05
Speaker 4: You want to get the road trip off on the
1:21:07
Speaker 4: right foot. But I don't like East Coast teams in
1:21:10
Speaker 4: their first game out west because it can kind of
1:21:12
Speaker 4: mess with your biological clock. So I don't really love that.
1:21:16
Speaker 4: So a lot of factors going on in this game.
1:21:18
Speaker 4: Obviously this is not going to be a play for me.
1:21:21
Speaker 4: The Mets used three relief pitchers yesterday, and of course
1:21:24
Speaker 4: Anaheim did not use anybody. But Anaheim's been a horrendous
1:21:27
Speaker 4: bullpen second worst in baseball, second worst ERA in the
1:21:32
Speaker 4: mid fives, absolutely terrible. Second worst whip as well above
1:21:37
Speaker 4: one and a half, really really bad bullpen. The Mets
1:21:40
Speaker 4: have the better bullpen, even if they used a few
1:21:42
Speaker 4: guys just that. I still think the Mets are the
1:21:44
Speaker 4: better bullpen. They're at twelfth in a bullpen whip, even
1:21:47
Speaker 4: though the ERA is in the fours, which isn't great
1:21:50
Speaker 4: but still a lot better than Anaheim. Anaheim has had
1:21:53
Speaker 4: the better offense, though they're at seventh right now, and
1:21:56
Speaker 4: again a lot of it is power hitting. Mets have
1:21:59
Speaker 4: been the worst off It's a baseball which again I
1:22:02
Speaker 4: still think there is going to be some improvement there
1:22:04
Speaker 4: at some point. This starting pitching matchup is ridiculous in
1:22:07
Speaker 4: this game though, this is this is the matchup of
1:22:10
Speaker 4: the young pitchers, so we have no clue who the
1:22:12
Speaker 4: hell they are. Christian Scott is pitching for the Mets.
1:22:16
Speaker 4: He has not had it. He's not been good so far,
1:22:20
Speaker 4: let's put it that way. He pitched one to the
1:22:22
Speaker 4: third innings in his first outing against Minnesota and it
1:22:26
Speaker 4: resulted in a six point seven five yr and three
1:22:29
Speaker 4: point seventy five whip. He walked five guys in that
1:22:33
Speaker 4: outing and somehow escaped giving up only one or run,
1:22:37
Speaker 4: didn't allow a hit, and had one strikeout. That's gotta
1:22:41
Speaker 4: be a pitcher, gommy man. You know that there is
1:22:44
Speaker 4: a Twitter account for that. For all the unique pitching
1:22:47
Speaker 4: lines that come out, I would assume that is one,
1:22:50
Speaker 4: because that is just ridiculous. That is such a bizarre
1:22:53
Speaker 4: pitching line. Scott might be better than that. I mean, he's
1:22:57
Speaker 4: one of the Mets prospects that bring it up. He's
1:22:59
Speaker 4: a little bit older now at twenty six. He did
1:23:02
Speaker 4: actually make nine starts in twenty twenty four, and then
1:23:05
Speaker 4: I think he was battling injuries. He was okay in
1:23:09
Speaker 4: twenty twenty four four point five six ERA one point
1:23:12
Speaker 4: two whip thirty nine to twelve strike out walk racing
1:23:14
Speaker 4: from forty seven to third innings, so not a high
1:23:17
Speaker 4: strikeout ray, but he didn't walk a lot of guys.
1:23:19
Speaker 4: He's already walked almost half of what he walked in
1:23:22
Speaker 4: nine starts in twenty twenty four. This year, he's walked
1:23:26
Speaker 4: almost half of the half of those batters in one
1:23:29
Speaker 4: of the third innings. It could have been nerves, though,
1:23:32
Speaker 4: you know, a first start in two years, I'm gonna
1:23:34
Speaker 4: chalk it up to nerves. I don't think he's this bad,
1:23:38
Speaker 4: so I think he might do okay here against Anaheim.
1:23:41
Speaker 4: Anaheim does have two hitters who have faced him before, though,
1:23:44
Speaker 4: Darnaux and Solaire both won for two off him, and
1:23:47
Speaker 4: Selaire does have a home run off him. Darnault has
1:23:49
Speaker 4: a walk and they don't have a strikeout off him,
1:23:52
Speaker 4: So he's mostly unfamiliar to Anaheim though, so I'm not
1:23:54
Speaker 4: gonna put much weight into these numbers. But yes, those
1:23:57
Speaker 4: two guys have hit him okay, but he might do
1:24:01
Speaker 4: decent in this game because they are unfamiliar with him.
1:24:04
Speaker 4: Walbert Urania is pitching for the Angels here. Four point
1:24:08
Speaker 4: seven six ERA so far doesn't look too bad, but
1:24:10
Speaker 4: a two point two to one whip is very bad.
1:24:13
Speaker 4: He's putting way too many guys on base. He's been
1:24:15
Speaker 4: better at home though, a three ERA, but I think
1:24:18
Speaker 4: he only made one start so far. I think he
1:24:20
Speaker 4: was mostly working out of the bullpen. Actually he might
1:24:23
Speaker 4: have made two starts. I'm not sure he had one
1:24:26
Speaker 4: really good outing, but the good thing for him is
1:24:28
Speaker 4: that was his only home appearance. He was actually really
1:24:31
Speaker 4: good against San Diego. Six innings, two earned runs, loud
1:24:35
Speaker 4: in that one. Eight strikeouts, two walks. But the concern
1:24:38
Speaker 4: is he just went to Kansas City and had five
1:24:40
Speaker 4: walks in three and two thirds inn He's and allowed
1:24:43
Speaker 4: six hits on top of that and got absolutely wrecked
1:24:45
Speaker 4: in that game and allowed four earned runs. That's bad
1:24:49
Speaker 4: with three strikeouts. So we have no idea what we're
1:24:52
Speaker 4: gonna get out of Urania here. Man, it's tough to
1:24:55
Speaker 4: gauge who he really is right now. He's definitely been
1:24:57
Speaker 4: a bit shaky and I believe he has never been
1:24:59
Speaker 4: fit before. By who are we talking about again here?
1:25:03
Speaker 4: I don't even remember the Mets. But lucky for him,
1:25:06
Speaker 4: the Mets offense is stunk, so maybe the Mets offense
1:25:08
Speaker 4: won't be able to hit him that well. And he
1:25:10
Speaker 4: has the unfamiliarity because the Mets have not seen him before.
1:25:14
Speaker 4: So some good things that his one good start wasn't
1:25:17
Speaker 4: at home. He's facing a really weak on offense that's
1:25:20
Speaker 4: never faced him before, so maybe he'll do okay here.
1:25:23
Speaker 4: I don't really want to bank on it. Yeah, I'm
1:25:27
Speaker 4: I don't know what to do with this game. This
1:25:28
Speaker 4: game is a very very difficult game to predict. It's
1:25:31
Speaker 4: a total mystery. It's one of the most unpredictable games
1:25:34
Speaker 4: on the board for me. So the money is backing
1:25:38
Speaker 4: Anaheim fifty three ticket seventy eight percent of the cash
1:25:41
Speaker 4: on them. Don't really see what's going on with the
1:25:44
Speaker 4: total here. The total is at nine, so the money
1:25:47
Speaker 4: seems to kind of respect Urania over Scott. I don't know.
1:25:51
Speaker 4: It might be more of the Anaheim offense though, and
1:25:53
Speaker 4: stuff like that, but I would not back Anaheim's bullpen
1:25:56
Speaker 4: at all. And Anaheim's not even that good at home.
1:25:59
Speaker 4: Five and seven and that's still not that great. Then
1:26:01
Speaker 4: that's four and nine on the road is bad. But
1:26:04
Speaker 4: you know, both teams below five hundred with their home
1:26:07
Speaker 4: road splits here. So yeah, dude, if I was gonna
1:26:11
Speaker 4: back Anaheim, you'd have to try to do it first
1:26:13
Speaker 4: five innings and just hope that your rain is gonna
1:26:16
Speaker 4: give you a good start here. That's what you'd have
1:26:17
Speaker 4: to do, because there's no way you can back Anaheim's
1:26:20
Speaker 4: bullpen here. Yeah, it's a game. It's a complete mystery
1:26:25
Speaker 4: to me. I want nothing to do with it. Cubs
1:26:27
Speaker 4: at San Diego. San Diego is staying at home, and
1:26:30
Speaker 4: I believe they were off. Yes, or no, did they
1:26:32
Speaker 4: play the Cobs yesterday? Let me say no, they were off,
1:26:36
Speaker 4: so the San Diego was off yesterday. I think both
1:26:39
Speaker 4: these teams were. The White Sox are traveling to San
1:26:44
Speaker 4: Diego and you know, again kind of a more Eastern
1:26:46
Speaker 4: team having to cross multiple times going out west. I
1:26:50
Speaker 4: don't love that, but I do actually probably prefer the
1:26:52
Speaker 4: White Sox here. I know they're coming off a sweep
1:26:55
Speaker 4: of Anaheim. I don't think they're gonna be in a
1:26:57
Speaker 4: letdown off of that. Though Anaheim's been bad, White Sox
1:27:00
Speaker 4: have actually been kind of respectable this year. Believe it
1:27:02
Speaker 4: or not. They are only three games bellow five hundred.
1:27:05
Speaker 4: They're only one and a half game out first place
1:27:08
Speaker 4: in the Al Central. I don't think they're gonna win
1:27:10
Speaker 4: the division. I'll tell you that right now. Uh. They
1:27:13
Speaker 4: still are probably the worst team in the division. But
1:27:16
Speaker 4: they're starting a road trip. Starting a road trip usually
1:27:18
Speaker 4: is a focus spot, uh, because you want to get
1:27:20
Speaker 4: it off on the right foot. They're playing a San
1:27:22
Speaker 4: Diego team it's been pretty good this year and known
1:27:25
Speaker 4: as a playoff team San Diego. Yes, they have the
1:27:28
Speaker 4: advantage of staying at home, but they're coming off a
1:27:30
Speaker 4: pretty big series against the Cubs and a close game
1:27:33
Speaker 4: in the last game, so I don't know how they're
1:27:36
Speaker 4: gonna fair trying to bounce back from that Cubs series. Now,
1:27:41
Speaker 4: bullpen wise, both bullpen's arrested. Both bullpens well. San Diego's
1:27:46
Speaker 4: bullpen is good. We know they have an elite closer.
1:27:49
Speaker 4: They've actually dropped off in the bullpen rankings a little bit.
1:27:52
Speaker 4: They're at eleventh, but I think they're better than that.
1:27:54
Speaker 4: Although surprising, the ERA is above four right now. Their
1:27:57
Speaker 4: whip isn't even that good at one point three. Most
1:28:00
Speaker 4: teams actually have kind of a whip that's not that
1:28:03
Speaker 4: good in the bullpen, but San Diego their bullpen is
1:28:07
Speaker 4: pretty good, though we know that. I think they're probably
1:28:09
Speaker 4: a top five or so bullpen. I think there are
1:28:13
Speaker 4: arguments to be made they're still the best going up
1:28:16
Speaker 4: against the White Sox. Yes, the White Sox don't have
1:28:18
Speaker 4: a good bullpen. We know that other ERA is at
1:28:21
Speaker 4: least below five, so maybe they're a little bit better
1:28:24
Speaker 4: than some other bullpens. Still, their whip is one and
1:28:27
Speaker 4: a half above that, which is bad. So you can't
1:28:30
Speaker 4: trust the White Sox bullpen. San Diego has the better bullpen.
1:28:33
Speaker 4: The White Sox have been hitting somewhat okay at twenty
1:28:38
Speaker 4: first san Diego twenty third. You might be able to
1:28:41
Speaker 4: make the argument the White Sox have a little bit
1:28:43
Speaker 4: of a better offense right now that San Diego does.
1:28:46
Speaker 4: We're looking at a picture friendly park here, but I
1:28:49
Speaker 4: like the situation a bit better for Chicago here. And
1:28:53
Speaker 4: you know, I like Noah Schultz. He's on the mound
1:28:55
Speaker 4: for the White Sox here. I almost said the Cobs
1:28:57
Speaker 4: whips the White Sox. Schultz is a young and he's
1:29:00
Speaker 4: only made three starts so far in his major league career,
1:29:03
Speaker 4: but it's gone pretty well. A three point five to
1:29:06
Speaker 4: two ERA, one point one to one whip his one
1:29:10
Speaker 4: road start, he has a one point eight ERA on
1:29:12
Speaker 4: the road, and that was at the A's stadium. So
1:29:15
Speaker 4: the A's hit better than San Diego does in the
1:29:17
Speaker 4: A's you know, that's a hitter friendly ballpark. So the
1:29:20
Speaker 4: fact that he was able to do that in that stadium,
1:29:23
Speaker 4: he should be able to pitch well in a pitcher
1:29:25
Speaker 4: friendly San Diego ballpark, you know what I mean. And
1:29:29
Speaker 4: he pitched pretty well in his last outing against Washington,
1:29:31
Speaker 4: although he did have four walks. The walks are concerned.
1:29:34
Speaker 4: He's got eighteen strikeouts and nine walks and only eight
1:29:37
Speaker 4: hits a lot of fifteen to third innings, so he's
1:29:40
Speaker 4: been basically unhittable. But the walks are the concern. He's
1:29:44
Speaker 4: been wild, dude. And again, he's a very tall lefty
1:29:49
Speaker 4: who does throw pretty hard, has a good pitch mix,
1:29:51
Speaker 4: has a really nasty sinker. He's got to get those
1:29:54
Speaker 4: walks under control, though. But I think he can definitely
1:29:56
Speaker 4: pitch well here. And of course he's going up against
1:29:58
Speaker 4: the San Diego team. It's never faced him before, so
1:30:01
Speaker 4: I think that's an advantage to him when he's never
1:30:04
Speaker 4: been seen before by the opposing hitters. So I like
1:30:07
Speaker 4: getting him as an underdog. I like that, but I
1:30:09
Speaker 4: would go first five innings. My lean in this game
1:30:12
Speaker 4: is gonna be White Sox first five innings, probably on
1:30:16
Speaker 4: the money line, maybe a plus a half run, depending
1:30:18
Speaker 4: on what the number is that you can get on that.
1:30:21
Speaker 4: I don't want the White Sox bullpen at all. Though
1:30:23
Speaker 4: Herman Marquez is pitching for the Padres, not great numbers here,
1:30:28
Speaker 4: you think that he would be better now that he's
1:30:30
Speaker 4: away from pitching in Colorado. But his numbers have been
1:30:32
Speaker 4: very mediocre at best, four point three eighty RA, one
1:30:36
Speaker 4: point three to four whip and he's actually been really
1:30:39
Speaker 4: bad in this stadium so far, nine ERA. I don't
1:30:42
Speaker 4: know what's going on. Man. You think he'd pitch better
1:30:44
Speaker 4: in San Diego, but that has not been the case.
1:30:47
Speaker 4: His two worst starts, his road starts, were both shutouts,
1:30:51
Speaker 4: and then actually he's had three appearances at home and
1:30:53
Speaker 4: they've all been bad. He's allowed four and runs in
1:30:56
Speaker 4: each of them. And one of them was against the
1:30:59
Speaker 4: Rockies at you know, at home. I mean, that's not good.
1:31:03
Speaker 4: And one of them was against San Francisco. They can't
1:31:05
Speaker 4: hit either, So the other one was against Arizona. I
1:31:07
Speaker 4: mean that's fine, but yeah, he's not been pitching well
1:31:10
Speaker 4: at home, dude, He's definitely fadable here. Numbers against the
1:31:14
Speaker 4: White Sox though very small sample, they only have fourteen
1:31:17
Speaker 4: at bats against the four strikeouts, one walk, two eighty
1:31:20
Speaker 4: six batting average allowed nine oh five ops. Yeah, so,
1:31:24
Speaker 4: I mean he has been hit by the White Sox,
1:31:26
Speaker 4: the guys that have faced him before. It's too small
1:31:29
Speaker 4: a sample size to really gauge that much from it,
1:31:31
Speaker 4: but yeah, I like Schultz over Marquez here man, that's
1:31:35
Speaker 4: the way I would lean. Market seems to disagree. I
1:31:38
Speaker 4: don't really get that fifty percent of tickets on the
1:31:40
Speaker 4: White Sox. I doubt it. There's no way that the
1:31:43
Speaker 4: public has a lean towards the White Sox here. There's
1:31:45
Speaker 4: no way fifty three percent of the cash on San Diego.
1:31:48
Speaker 4: I'm not buying that. San Diego dropped from minus one
1:31:51
Speaker 4: to sixty eight into the minus one forties. Like I said,
1:31:54
Speaker 4: first five innings White Sox would be my play recommendation
1:31:58
Speaker 4: in that game. I almost want to add that one
1:32:01
Speaker 4: to my card. I like that one, and I like
1:32:02
Speaker 4: the over in Toronto, Minnesota, and those are probably the
1:32:05
Speaker 4: next two that I'm leaving off my card right now.
1:32:09
Speaker 4: But yes, I like the White Sox first five innings
1:32:12
Speaker 4: in that one. And obviously the bullpens are a big
1:32:15
Speaker 4: advantage to San Diego, so leaving them out Cleveland at
1:32:18
Speaker 4: the A's. The A's are staying at home. I believe
1:32:22
Speaker 4: they played yesterday against Kansas City. Yeah, so the Aas
1:32:27
Speaker 4: have a rest disadvantage because they played yesterday. Cleveland did not.
1:32:30
Speaker 4: But Cleveland is having to travel to the West coast,
1:32:33
Speaker 4: so Cleveland does have a day off, but they did
1:32:35
Speaker 4: just end a four game losing streak, So sometimes I
1:32:37
Speaker 4: talk about ending a losing streak will kind of give
1:32:40
Speaker 4: you new momentum moving into the next game. But I
1:32:43
Speaker 4: don't like the fact that they're traveling to the West coast.
1:32:46
Speaker 4: You know, that could mess with your biological clock a
1:32:48
Speaker 4: little bit. But the A's they have a pretty bad
1:32:51
Speaker 4: bullpen and they had to use some of it yesterday.
1:32:54
Speaker 4: They used four relief pitchers yesterday, so the bullpen edge
1:32:57
Speaker 4: has to go to Cleveland. The A's have a twenty
1:33:00
Speaker 4: second ranked bullpen and WHIP. Their eray is actually not
1:33:03
Speaker 4: that bad below four, but still I don't trust that bullpen.
1:33:09
Speaker 4: The bullpen is definitely better for the Indians here. They're
1:33:13
Speaker 4: actually eighth in WHIP, although their e ray is bad.
1:33:15
Speaker 4: Their ray is actually worse than the A's. It's in
1:33:18
Speaker 4: the fours. But Cleveland's got a bullpen edge here, man,
1:33:21
Speaker 4: I think they're the slightly better bullpen at the very least,
1:33:24
Speaker 4: and they're more rested here. As far as the hitting,
1:33:27
Speaker 4: the A's definitely have the better hitting. They're at thirteenth
1:33:30
Speaker 4: in hitting here in ops. Cleveland is twenty sixth, So yes,
1:33:34
Speaker 4: we'll give the as a hitting edge here. Starting pitching,
1:33:37
Speaker 4: I think I prefer Cleveland here, though, Joey Cantillo on
1:33:40
Speaker 4: the mound, I know he's having to go pitch in
1:33:42
Speaker 4: a very hit or friendly ballpark, though I don't know
1:33:46
Speaker 4: if he's pitched in this ballpark before. He's got a
1:33:48
Speaker 4: really nice two point nine to seven ERA, but his
1:33:50
Speaker 4: whip is not that good one point three to two,
1:33:53
Speaker 4: so he is putting too many guys on base. He's
1:33:56
Speaker 4: been pretty good both home and away, so the home
1:33:58
Speaker 4: road splits are not a concern with him. He's given
1:34:01
Speaker 4: up three or four earned runs in every one of
1:34:03
Speaker 4: his outings, so he's at the very least he's keeping
1:34:05
Speaker 4: his team in these games. The walks of the biggest
1:34:09
Speaker 4: concern with him. He has thirty four strikeouts in thirty
1:34:12
Speaker 4: to third innings. That's good. Twenty seven hits allout, so
1:34:14
Speaker 4: he's hard to hit. He throws pretty hard, I guess,
1:34:18
Speaker 4: and gets a lot of strikeouts, so he's got thirteen walks.
1:34:20
Speaker 4: So the wildness, you know, it's the case with a
1:34:23
Speaker 4: lot of guys. The wildness is a bit of a concern.
1:34:25
Speaker 4: He does allow more fly balls than ground balls. That's
1:34:28
Speaker 4: a little bit of a concern pitching in this A's
1:34:30
Speaker 4: stadium here. I guess I could see if he pitched
1:34:32
Speaker 4: here last year. I don't think he did, though he
1:34:36
Speaker 4: was coming out of the bullpen a lot last year,
1:34:38
Speaker 4: though I don't see it in here. I don't believe
1:34:42
Speaker 4: he did. I don't think he faced the A's at
1:34:43
Speaker 4: all last year. Oh and in fact, yeah, I could
1:34:48
Speaker 4: have just looked at that. That's right, I looked at
1:34:49
Speaker 4: this earlier today. Yeah, he has an extra advantage because
1:34:52
Speaker 4: the A's have never faced it before. So there you go.
1:34:54
Speaker 4: So Cantillo has the unfamiliarity edge against the A's, So
1:34:58
Speaker 4: there you go. So he might actually pitch well. JT.
1:35:01
Speaker 4: Ginn is pitching for the A's, and yes, his numbers
1:35:03
Speaker 4: do look good. Three point twenty four ERA, one point
1:35:06
Speaker 4: oh eight whip. I'm gonna dial it back on him
1:35:09
Speaker 4: a bit though, because he's been really bad at home
1:35:11
Speaker 4: six point two to three ERA. And again, this is
1:35:13
Speaker 4: the very unfriendly park to pitchers. So he's been really
1:35:17
Speaker 4: good away from home and been really bad at home
1:35:19
Speaker 4: this year, so you can definitely faint him at home.
1:35:23
Speaker 4: He's been basically making like shortened appearances. He's come out
1:35:27
Speaker 4: of the bullpen a little bit. And yes, the A's
1:35:28
Speaker 4: have actually won six games in a row that he's
1:35:30
Speaker 4: appeared in, so the A's do win when he pitches,
1:35:34
Speaker 4: but he's made some start, some relief appearances. He doesn't
1:35:37
Speaker 4: go deep into games, and that's kind of the issue.
1:35:40
Speaker 4: If you already think Cleveland has a bit of a
1:35:42
Speaker 4: bullpen edge here, the A's bullpen is gonna have to
1:35:44
Speaker 4: come into this game, possibly somewhat earlier than Cleveland's, so
1:35:48
Speaker 4: that might be a concern. Again, nineteen strikeouts in twenty
1:35:52
Speaker 4: five innings is not a lot of strikeouts, but he's
1:35:54
Speaker 4: only a lot of eighteen hits and nine walks. That's
1:35:56
Speaker 4: not terrible. But the one thing that's kind of keeping
1:35:59
Speaker 4: him alive years he induces a lot of ground balls,
1:36:03
Speaker 4: and that is good when you're pitching in a home
1:36:05
Speaker 4: run conduce a ballpark like this, But then again, you know,
1:36:10
Speaker 4: he's still a lot a couple of home runs in
1:36:12
Speaker 4: this ballpark, and he's pitched poorly in this ballpark anyway,
1:36:15
Speaker 4: So that's not a great sign facing Cleveland here. They're
1:36:20
Speaker 4: not a great offense though he is pretty unfamiliar to them,
1:36:23
Speaker 4: They're only one for two off him. Hoskins is over
1:36:26
Speaker 4: one and Jose Ramirez has a double off him, and
1:36:29
Speaker 4: Hoskins has a strikeout and they have no walks against him.
1:36:32
Speaker 4: So there's not a lot you engage from that. I
1:36:35
Speaker 4: would basically, I would just throw those numbers out. It's
1:36:37
Speaker 4: a very small sample. You could say that both pitchers
1:36:40
Speaker 4: are unfamiliar to the opposing hitters, though, so, although this
1:36:44
Speaker 4: has been an overconduc of ballpark, you might be able
1:36:48
Speaker 4: to go under first five innings here man because you
1:36:50
Speaker 4: have two pitchers who are unfamiliar. I do worry about
1:36:52
Speaker 4: Gin's home struggles though, so I don't really want to
1:36:56
Speaker 4: do it, but there might be a few more arguments
1:36:59
Speaker 4: to go un first five innings. Then there're are to
1:37:01
Speaker 4: go over maybe full game under as well. It's nine
1:37:05
Speaker 4: and a half, which is a little bit low for
1:37:08
Speaker 4: an a's total here at home, but you know it,
1:37:11
Speaker 4: some of it is factoring in the pitching, and then
1:37:12
Speaker 4: the money looks like it's back in the a's. I
1:37:14
Speaker 4: wouldn't want to do that. Cleveland never sixty sixty percent
1:37:18
Speaker 4: of the tickets. Excuse me, it's fifty of the cash.
1:37:21
Speaker 4: I don't like that, I would lean to Cleveland in
1:37:23
Speaker 4: this game. You're getting them at basically just to pick
1:37:26
Speaker 4: the winner price, which maybe it looks too easy to
1:37:29
Speaker 4: play Cleveland at a pick the winner. What's their record?
1:37:35
Speaker 4: Both teams records are pretty similar, though the A's actually
1:37:37
Speaker 4: have a little bit of a better record. Both teams
1:37:39
Speaker 4: are close to five hundred with their home roads. Let's
1:37:42
Speaker 4: hear Cleveland on the road, A's at home. So I
1:37:44
Speaker 4: don't know, man, but yeah, I prefer Cantio a little
1:37:48
Speaker 4: bit in that one. Again, not good at home, so
1:37:50
Speaker 4: I lean to Cleveland a little bit in that game.
1:37:52
Speaker 4: Plus the bullpen is an advantage for Cleveland there, so
1:37:55
Speaker 4: I would lean to Cleveland. And then the last game,
1:37:58
Speaker 4: which is another Apple TV game, can't the city at Seattle.
1:38:01
Speaker 4: I think you know where we're going with this already.
1:38:03
Speaker 4: This is one of my plays. We are going under
1:38:12
Speaker 4: the seven here, and I know Kansas City's bullpen is bad,
1:38:16
Speaker 4: and I know the pitched yesterday, so that is a
1:38:18
Speaker 4: little bit of a concern. If you want to go
1:38:20
Speaker 4: first five innings under the three and a half, you
1:38:22
Speaker 4: could do that too, but I'm gonna hope the starting
1:38:25
Speaker 4: pitching gets us a little bit deeper into this game,
1:38:27
Speaker 4: and we at least have one very capable bullpend with Seattle. Here.
1:38:31
Speaker 4: Seattle is returning on from a road trip, so you know,
1:38:35
Speaker 4: I like to fade teams returning on from road trips,
1:38:37
Speaker 4: but a lot of the distractions come into play and
1:38:39
Speaker 4: effect the offense. So I think that might mean that
1:38:42
Speaker 4: Seattle might struggle to hit in this game. So I
1:38:45
Speaker 4: like that returning on from a road trip. They went
1:38:48
Speaker 4: to Saint Louis and Minnesota. They had a very successful
1:38:50
Speaker 4: road trip. They won all but one game on the
1:38:53
Speaker 4: road trip, losing once in Minnesota. So Seattle's definitely coming around.
1:38:58
Speaker 4: They're a pretty good team, man, They're not what they
1:39:00
Speaker 4: looked like early in the season. But having a day
1:39:03
Speaker 4: off and on a return home again, I think it
1:39:06
Speaker 4: negatively impacts the hitting because they could fall into that distraction.
1:39:09
Speaker 4: It's spot more because it's a bunch of guys having
1:39:12
Speaker 4: that factoring into their lives and whatever, and you know,
1:39:16
Speaker 4: like one pitcher can get over it more than the
1:39:18
Speaker 4: hitters can, So I think that's a negative for Seattle's offense.
1:39:23
Speaker 4: For Kansas City, they did play yesterday, so Seattle has
1:39:25
Speaker 4: a arrested bullpend, but that will help us with our
1:39:28
Speaker 4: under as well. That Seattle's bullpen is rested. Kansas City
1:39:31
Speaker 4: didn't use a lot yesterday. They only used two relief pitchers.
1:39:34
Speaker 4: And I still think Kansas City's bullpen is on the
1:39:38
Speaker 4: way up. Like they've been really bad. Their eras in
1:39:41
Speaker 4: the fives. Their whip is one and a half. They're
1:39:43
Speaker 4: the third worst bullpen in baseball, but they had a
1:39:45
Speaker 4: lot of They have a lot of the same guys
1:39:47
Speaker 4: they had last year and they were nowhere near this bad,
1:39:49
Speaker 4: so I don't really know that. I'm totally buying it.
1:39:52
Speaker 4: And we have a picture friendly ballpark here, so again,
1:39:55
Speaker 4: if you want to go first five, you could do
1:39:56
Speaker 4: that year, but I'm gonna leave the bullpens in. Seattle's
1:40:00
Speaker 4: is pretty good. They're only at sixteenth in whip, but
1:40:04
Speaker 4: I we know who they have in their bullpen. I
1:40:06
Speaker 4: think they're pretty trustworthy. Hitting wise, neither team has been
1:40:09
Speaker 4: that good. Kansas City's middle of the pack fifteenth, Seattle eighteenth,
1:40:13
Speaker 4: so we're not looking at offenses that are really ripping
1:40:17
Speaker 4: the cover off the ball though. Seattle did actually have
1:40:20
Speaker 4: a good offensive road trip there, but they're not as
1:40:24
Speaker 4: good offensively at home because it's a very pitcher friendly ballpark,
1:40:28
Speaker 4: and we're getting what I think is the best pitcher
1:40:31
Speaker 4: in both of the starting rotations pitching here. Cole Reagan's
1:40:35
Speaker 4: is pitching for the Royals, and I know his numbers
1:40:38
Speaker 4: don't look good this year five ERA, one point four
1:40:40
Speaker 4: to eight whip. He's trying to come back from injury, though.
1:40:43
Speaker 4: I know he's been really bad on the road eight
1:40:45
Speaker 4: point four ERA, so you don't necessarily want to play
1:40:48
Speaker 4: him on the road, but basically his road his road
1:40:52
Speaker 4: stats are all being skewed by his first outing at
1:40:55
Speaker 4: Atlanta and then he got blown up at the Yankees.
1:40:58
Speaker 4: I'm gonna give him a pass for I know he
1:41:00
Speaker 4: was horrible and that Yankees start to give up eight walks.
1:41:03
Speaker 4: I don't know what that was. But you look at
1:41:05
Speaker 4: Reagan's stats over his career. He's only twenty eight still.
1:41:08
Speaker 4: I know he's trying to come back from injury, but
1:41:10
Speaker 4: we know who he is, and I really like the
1:41:13
Speaker 4: fact that he had eleven strikeouts no walks in his
1:41:16
Speaker 4: last start. He bounced back really nicely against Anaheim and
1:41:19
Speaker 4: had a very ace like performance in that game. Six
1:41:22
Speaker 4: innings won or and run, five hits allowed, That's a
1:41:25
Speaker 4: good sign to me that Reagan's might be coming back
1:41:28
Speaker 4: into form here. And you know, he had a shutout
1:41:30
Speaker 4: two starts prior to that against Detroit, although he did
1:41:33
Speaker 4: walk too many guys. The walks are definitely the concern
1:41:36
Speaker 4: this year, but I think he might be getting that
1:41:38
Speaker 4: under control and it hasn't been as much of an
1:41:40
Speaker 4: issue throughout his career. He's gone twenty seven innings this year.
1:41:43
Speaker 4: He hasn't been very hit able twenty two hits, thirty
1:41:46
Speaker 4: three strikeouts, So his strikeout stuff is there. Hit eighteen
1:41:50
Speaker 4: walks is the problem. If he gets the walks under control,
1:41:53
Speaker 4: he's gonna be a good pitcher again. Man. He's certainly
1:41:56
Speaker 4: capable of being Kansas City's ace again. He was a
1:42:00
Speaker 4: pitcher who was basically like in the Cy Young discussion
1:42:03
Speaker 4: not long ago, and then the injury last year kind
1:42:05
Speaker 4: of derailed him a bit. But I think he's on
1:42:08
Speaker 4: his way back to being decent at the very least again.
1:42:12
Speaker 4: His numbers against Seattle, you know they're gonna be good
1:42:14
Speaker 4: because they're going under here. Thirty six at bats, eleven strikeouts,
1:42:18
Speaker 4: four walks. Not a great ratio there, but he's telling
1:42:21
Speaker 4: him to a one to ninety four average of five
1:42:23
Speaker 4: to eighty one ops. It's a decent sized sample, and
1:42:26
Speaker 4: he's been good against Seattle, so I think he could
1:42:28
Speaker 4: definitely pitch well here. And you know, I think Brian
1:42:31
Speaker 4: wu is going to bounce back from his previous start.
1:42:34
Speaker 4: He's got a three point eight six ERA one point
1:42:36
Speaker 4: zero six whip those numbers. Those include his horrible start
1:42:40
Speaker 4: in his last outing, and his numbers are still really good.
1:42:43
Speaker 4: He's also better at home two point seven to seventy
1:42:46
Speaker 4: RA at home, so most Seattle pitchers are. That last
1:42:49
Speaker 4: start was on the road. In fact, he's only made
1:42:51
Speaker 4: two home starts this season, and those have been two
1:42:54
Speaker 4: of his better starts, against Texas and Cleveland. I know
1:42:57
Speaker 4: those are weak offenses, but he's combined for fifty strikeouts
1:43:00
Speaker 4: and two walks at home in thirteen innings, and oily
1:43:03
Speaker 4: allot eight hits and four earned runs. So he's pitching
1:43:06
Speaker 4: good at home, pitching well, I should say, which is
1:43:09
Speaker 4: usually the case with him. That last start, I'm pretty
1:43:12
Speaker 4: sure was a fluke against Saint Louis. He gave up
1:43:15
Speaker 4: four home runs. I don't know what the hell that was.
1:43:18
Speaker 4: I think he's gonna bounce back. He's a really good pitcher.
1:43:20
Speaker 4: There's no real indication that he's like gonna have that
1:43:24
Speaker 4: bad of a performance. Again, he's allowed three or four
1:43:27
Speaker 4: earned runs, and every other outing he's fine. Twenty seven
1:43:30
Speaker 4: to six strike out walk rat. I know he's not
1:43:31
Speaker 4: that much of a strikeout guy, but he doesn't walk
1:43:34
Speaker 4: a lot of guys, doesn't allow a lot of hits.
1:43:36
Speaker 4: Thirty one hits a lot in thirty five innings numbers
1:43:39
Speaker 4: against who are we talking about here? I already forget, oh,
1:43:43
Speaker 4: Kansas City. Yeah, you know his numbers are gonna be
1:43:45
Speaker 4: good against Kansas City. This like this, just like, this
1:43:50
Speaker 4: game looks like such an undergame for me. I can't
1:43:53
Speaker 4: even click on the right thing in the drop down here,
1:43:55
Speaker 4: the right option fourteen at bats. So actually, Kansas City
1:43:59
Speaker 4: hasn't even seen him that much. They have no extra
1:44:01
Speaker 4: base hits against him, five strikeouts, one walk, one forty
1:44:05
Speaker 4: three batting average allowed to three forty three ohps. And
1:44:08
Speaker 4: while yeah, it's a small sample, I expect Woo to
1:44:11
Speaker 4: pitch well here under is the play here the money
1:44:15
Speaker 4: is not indicating on it. Ninety one percent of tickets
1:44:19
Speaker 4: and only actually ninety one percent of tickets and cash
1:44:21
Speaker 4: on the under. It's impossible to read that, but it's
1:44:24
Speaker 4: at seven there you can get the seven. If you
1:44:27
Speaker 4: want to go first five under, you could do that too.
1:44:29
Speaker 4: The money is hitting Kansas City, which that makes me
1:44:34
Speaker 4: like the under because I think Reagan's is the bigger
1:44:36
Speaker 4: question mark here. And if the total is this low
1:44:39
Speaker 4: and the money is backing Reagan's, that tells me that
1:44:41
Speaker 4: the professional betters do think Reagans will pitch well here.
1:44:44
Speaker 4: Fifty six percent of tickets around Seattle fifty one percent
1:44:47
Speaker 4: of the cash on Kansas City. So the money seems
1:44:50
Speaker 4: to like Kansas City at the underdog price. Other Seattle
1:44:54
Speaker 4: is like a minus one forty something favorite at most spots.
1:44:57
Speaker 4: So so I'm gonna keep in mind there. But under
1:45:01
Speaker 4: is my play in that one, and that's my last
1:45:03
Speaker 4: play of the day. So we'll go to NHL here
1:45:06
Speaker 4: we'll finish it off with all the playoffs. Here. We
1:45:10
Speaker 4: have three NHL games that are all on ESPN two
1:45:12
Speaker 4: and or ESPN. Tampa Bay is at Montreal. Montreal leads
1:45:17
Speaker 4: the series three to two. Every game in the series
1:45:20
Speaker 4: has been decided by one goal. More than half of
1:45:23
Speaker 4: them have gone into overtime. This has been a very
1:45:25
Speaker 4: close series. I still think Tampa is the better team.
1:45:29
Speaker 4: I know they're on the road here, Tampa's not that
1:45:32
Speaker 4: bad on the road. Montreal is pretty good at home too.
1:45:34
Speaker 4: These teams, the home road splits are not that significant
1:45:38
Speaker 4: with these two teams. They're both pretty good. I think
1:45:40
Speaker 4: Montreal might be Actually, no, I think both teams are
1:45:43
Speaker 4: actually pretty good, both on the road and at home.
1:45:45
Speaker 4: But the one thing that makes me like Tampa a
1:45:48
Speaker 4: little bit more here is well, the urgency. You know
1:45:51
Speaker 4: they're facing elimination here, but you look at what happened
1:45:55
Speaker 4: in the last game. This game, it was a close game,
1:46:00
Speaker 4: so it wasn't like Tampa Bay was throwing up a
1:46:01
Speaker 4: lot of desperation shots. Tampa Bay had almost double Montreal
1:46:05
Speaker 4: shots forty to twenty four. So Montreal the fact they
1:46:09
Speaker 4: scored three goals on that few shots and Tampa I
1:46:13
Speaker 4: don't know how Montreal's goaltending stopped Tampa from scoring more
1:46:16
Speaker 4: in that one, because when a team has that many
1:46:18
Speaker 4: more shots, you know, that means they had way more
1:46:20
Speaker 4: scoring opportunities. So that makes me think that this is
1:46:23
Speaker 4: a little bit of a misleading result. However, Montreal won
1:46:26
Speaker 4: two thirds of the face sauce, which is a lot,
1:46:29
Speaker 4: and they were the much more physical team and hits.
1:46:31
Speaker 4: So that worries me about Tampa here. That Montreal was
1:46:35
Speaker 4: the more physical team, and I do like the physicality,
1:46:38
Speaker 4: but Montreal is still a very young team. They haven't
1:46:42
Speaker 4: been in a spot like this before Tampa has. Tampa
1:46:44
Speaker 4: is a very experienced team. I think when it comes
1:46:47
Speaker 4: down to it, I would prefer Vassilevsky in net to.
1:46:50
Speaker 4: I don't even who's Montreal even been using in net
1:46:52
Speaker 4: I don't even know, to be honest, because they were
1:46:57
Speaker 4: switching between their goalies this year. It's been DoBeS. That's
1:46:59
Speaker 4: what I thought. Montembau just didn't really make the cut
1:47:03
Speaker 4: for them. I'm gonna lean to Tampa in this game,
1:47:05
Speaker 4: though the money seems to disagree with me. Here where
1:47:08
Speaker 4: is it at? We have fifty eight percent of tickets,
1:47:14
Speaker 4: ninety four percent of the cash coming in Montreal. The
1:47:17
Speaker 4: line dropped a little bit. Tampa's in like a basically
1:47:20
Speaker 4: picked the winner range here at minus one fifteen. But
1:47:22
Speaker 4: to me, I don't really think the public is going
1:47:25
Speaker 4: to be coming in on Tampa here based on what
1:47:26
Speaker 4: they've seen in the series. I think they're probably afraid
1:47:29
Speaker 4: to do it. I like Tampa to extend the series
1:47:32
Speaker 4: and send it back. And I know I picked them
1:47:33
Speaker 4: to win the whole thing in my bracket, but I
1:47:36
Speaker 4: like it. And yeah, we started getting shit wrong. We
1:47:38
Speaker 4: got the Wild wrong. You know, we had Dallas beating
1:47:42
Speaker 4: the Wild. I think that sets Colorado up better because
1:47:45
Speaker 4: I think Dallas had a much better shot to beat Colorado.
1:47:48
Speaker 4: Colorado seems to never be able to beat Dallas. So
1:47:50
Speaker 4: Colorado probably breathing a sigh of relief. Although Minnesota and
1:47:54
Speaker 4: you know they're not a cake walk. And then yeah,
1:48:00
Speaker 4: we got the Denver Nuggets wrong. Denver couldn't even win
1:48:03
Speaker 4: last night against an injured Minnesota team. And of course
1:48:06
Speaker 4: I was correct about the under in that Nuggets Seawolves game.
1:48:09
Speaker 4: Because of course, my total leans have been right on
1:48:12
Speaker 4: in the in the NBA playoffs, and none of them
1:48:14
Speaker 4: have been plays because I'm more of a sides guy. Anyway,
1:48:18
Speaker 4: Buffalo at Boston, my Boston Bruins. I'm gonna rep them
1:48:21
Speaker 4: with my hat today. Bruins won the last game. It
1:48:24
Speaker 4: was a very close game. They won an overtime. We
1:48:26
Speaker 4: had a winner on the show on that our hockey
1:48:28
Speaker 4: playoffs have been good on the show so far. Bruins
1:48:32
Speaker 4: were able to get the win extend the series. I
1:48:34
Speaker 4: liked that as a bounce back spot. If you look
1:48:36
Speaker 4: at the game statistically, it was very close, like no
1:48:40
Speaker 4: team really dominated the game statistically, But I liked that
1:48:43
Speaker 4: the Bruins are still well, the Bruins are the more physical. Actually,
1:48:45
Speaker 4: I take that back. The Bruins were the better team.
1:48:48
Speaker 4: The Bruins had a few more shots, but they had
1:48:50
Speaker 4: way more hits and they won sixty percent of the
1:48:53
Speaker 4: face sauce basically, so the Bruins were better, like as
1:48:57
Speaker 4: far as the physicality numbers in the game, whatever, and
1:48:59
Speaker 4: that's what they do. And they're back at home here,
1:49:02
Speaker 4: and I like the Bruins having more experience as well,
1:49:05
Speaker 4: even though their coach isn't that experience. Buffalo has not
1:49:08
Speaker 4: been in a position like this in quite a while.
1:49:10
Speaker 4: Man Bruins only missed the playoffs once last year, and
1:49:13
Speaker 4: they were in the playoffs the previous two years, so
1:49:15
Speaker 4: the Bruins have an experience as The Bruins are also
1:49:18
Speaker 4: way better at home than on the road. Twenty nine
1:49:20
Speaker 4: to eleven and one at home, and I know they
1:49:21
Speaker 4: lost both home games in the series so far, but
1:49:24
Speaker 4: the Bruins have a big home road split, and it
1:49:27
Speaker 4: favors them at home in a pretty dramatic way. Buffalo
1:49:31
Speaker 4: is decent on the road too, though. But to me,
1:49:35
Speaker 4: I you know, the last game was not like an outlier,
1:49:38
Speaker 4: like the final score was not misleading or anything like that.
1:49:42
Speaker 4: I am gonna lean to the Bruins in this one.
1:49:44
Speaker 4: I think they're a really good team at home. The
1:49:46
Speaker 4: money's not agreeing with me. Buffalo seventy four percent of tickets,
1:49:49
Speaker 4: ninety two percent of the cash you're getting the Bruins
1:49:51
Speaker 4: basically as a small underdog at home. I'm gonna root
1:49:55
Speaker 4: for them. It's not gonna be a player or anything.
1:49:57
Speaker 4: I think if I was gonna play any hockey game,
1:49:59
Speaker 4: it would actual be Tampa, believe it or not. But
1:50:01
Speaker 4: I just don't feel strongly about any of these games.
1:50:04
Speaker 4: And then the last game is Vegas in Utah. I
1:50:07
Speaker 4: just don't know how Utah is gonna respond to the
1:50:09
Speaker 4: way that they lost those prior to games. The both
1:50:13
Speaker 4: of these games went to overtime, I'm pretty sure, with
1:50:15
Speaker 4: Vegas winning five to four. Vegas blew a three nothing
1:50:19
Speaker 4: lead in the game prior to the last one. I
1:50:22
Speaker 4: gave out Vegas as a play in that game. They
1:50:24
Speaker 4: blew a three nothing lead and then still won the game,
1:50:28
Speaker 4: actually had to come back from down one late and win.
1:50:31
Speaker 4: And then they did the same thing. Vegas scored a
1:50:33
Speaker 4: goal in the final minute of the last game to
1:50:36
Speaker 4: send it into overtime, I'm pretty sure, and then one
1:50:39
Speaker 4: again in overtime. That is brutal for Utah. If you're Utah,
1:50:43
Speaker 4: I just don't know how you pick yourself back up
1:50:45
Speaker 4: off the mat after that, man. And I know Utah
1:50:48
Speaker 4: is good at home. Well, actually they're not great at home,
1:50:50
Speaker 4: but really, Vegas is actually not good on the road
1:50:53
Speaker 4: is more like it. Vegas nineteen fourteen and eight away
1:50:56
Speaker 4: from home. That's not great. Vegas I believe has won
1:50:58
Speaker 4: one of the road games series so far though, yes, correct, yeah, Vegas.
1:51:06
Speaker 4: The last time they were in Utah they won. Now.
1:51:09
Speaker 4: The most interesting thing about the series, though, is Vegas
1:51:14
Speaker 4: is the only team I believe in NHL history to
1:51:18
Speaker 4: be losing every one of the first five games of
1:51:22
Speaker 4: a series in the third period and be leading the series.
1:51:28
Speaker 4: So that does indicate that Utah has played better in
1:51:30
Speaker 4: the series than what it looks like, but this is
1:51:33
Speaker 4: a difficult spot, dude, I'm telling you. Like the way
1:51:36
Speaker 4: that they lost those two games, especially the last one
1:51:38
Speaker 4: I was watching it, that could really really have you defeated. Man,
1:51:42
Speaker 4: Even though yeah, Utah needs to win this game. They're
1:51:44
Speaker 4: facing elimination. They gotta win here at home. They're gonna
1:51:47
Speaker 4: have to win this game and go back to Vegas
1:51:49
Speaker 4: and win again. Though I don't know, Man, to me,
1:51:52
Speaker 4: it seems like that was kind of their shot where
1:51:54
Speaker 4: they could have taken control of the series and they
1:51:55
Speaker 4: weren't able to do it. And Vegas is the more
1:51:59
Speaker 4: experienced team, they have, the more experienced players. Heart looks
1:52:03
Speaker 4: like he's doing okay and net again here Vameilka, you know,
1:52:07
Speaker 4: might be teetering a little bit because he's a Vameilica's
1:52:10
Speaker 4: allowed those game winning goals to Vegas or whatever in
1:52:13
Speaker 4: the game tying. I mean, that was just crazy. It
1:52:15
Speaker 4: wasn't his fault though, if you saw how Vegas won
1:52:18
Speaker 4: that game that play, that was not Vimelka's fault. Utah
1:52:22
Speaker 4: turned it over in their own zone and that's how
1:52:24
Speaker 4: Vegas won the game. I think it was a shorthanded goal.
1:52:27
Speaker 4: I think Utah was on a power play and Vegas
1:52:30
Speaker 4: won the game on a short handed goal. If I'm
1:52:32
Speaker 4: not mistaken. Uh so, yeah that was Utah just turned
1:52:35
Speaker 4: the puck over. That was insane. Vmeilica couldn't really do
1:52:39
Speaker 4: anything about that. But still I like Vegas in this one.
1:52:44
Speaker 4: I know I picked them in my bracket and whatever,
1:52:45
Speaker 4: the money's not agreeing. What else is new? Fifty tickets,
1:52:49
Speaker 4: fifty one percent of the cash on Vegas, they're minus
1:52:52
Speaker 4: one fifteen right now. I don't know, man, I think
1:52:55
Speaker 4: they finish off the series, even though the pressure is
1:52:57
Speaker 4: kind of off of them now because they can go
1:53:00
Speaker 4: back home and win, but they don't really want to
1:53:01
Speaker 4: let it get to that. So those are my opinions there.
1:53:08
Speaker 4: Rooting for the Bruins. Yeah, man, I mean I'm probably
1:53:12
Speaker 4: just gonna, you know, I don't know. I don't know
1:53:14
Speaker 4: what I'm gonna do when the Bruins get eliminate it
1:53:16
Speaker 4: because the Bruins are not gonna win the copp or
1:53:19
Speaker 4: anything like that. Although you know, if the Bruins somehow
1:53:22
Speaker 4: win this series and then they wind up facing Montreal,
1:53:25
Speaker 4: the Bruins actually have a chance in that series. I
1:53:28
Speaker 4: don't like the Bruins' chances if they faced the lightning.
1:53:30
Speaker 4: Though obviously you saw my bracket. Let's look at the NBA.
1:53:36
Speaker 4: We have three NBA games, they're all on Amazon Prime.
1:53:40
Speaker 4: Detroit at Orlando. Orlando leading the series three to two,
1:53:44
Speaker 4: and if this game goes seven and Orlando has to
1:53:47
Speaker 4: try to win in Detroit, I don't think they're gonna
1:53:49
Speaker 4: win that game. So Orlando really has to do it now,
1:53:53
Speaker 4: but it does mean the pressure is on them now.
1:53:55
Speaker 4: Orlando did lose the prior game, but they covered the
1:53:59
Speaker 4: game was you know, it was even though Detroit's really
1:54:02
Speaker 4: really good at home and I thought Detroit would cover.
1:54:04
Speaker 4: I liked the over in this game a little bit
1:54:06
Speaker 4: more because both teams had shot so poorly in the
1:54:09
Speaker 4: prior game, and it happened. It did go over, so
1:54:12
Speaker 4: I got that one correct. Now, these teams did shoot
1:54:16
Speaker 4: better in this game, but the biggest outlier was Orlando
1:54:19
Speaker 4: shooting forty five percent from three. They were plus twenty
1:54:23
Speaker 4: one from three point range and still lost the game.
1:54:26
Speaker 4: That's not a good sign if you're Orlando. The fact
1:54:29
Speaker 4: that you could have that many more threes in the
1:54:31
Speaker 4: game and still lose, that is a bad sign. Coming
1:54:35
Speaker 4: into this game. The One good sign for Orlando, though,
1:54:37
Speaker 4: is that they missed a ton of free throws. They
1:54:40
Speaker 4: had fifty three percent. They were fifty three percent from
1:54:43
Speaker 4: free throw range. No NBA team shoots that bad. So
1:54:46
Speaker 4: there is a chance that Orlando does shoot better from
1:54:48
Speaker 4: the free throw line here. But they got dominated in
1:54:51
Speaker 4: this game. Dude. Detroit had a sixteen rebound advantage in
1:54:55
Speaker 4: the game. Plus sixteen, Detroit led the entire way. Detroit
1:55:00
Speaker 4: is the better team. There is a chance that Orlando
1:55:03
Speaker 4: does get Wagner back here, I'm not sure because Wagner missed.
1:55:06
Speaker 4: He went out two games ago, missed the prior game. No,
1:55:11
Speaker 4: he went out in the prior game, missed the last game.
1:55:15
Speaker 4: It looks like he's not playing tonight though, So the
1:55:17
Speaker 4: Magic are still without Wagner and he is their second
1:55:20
Speaker 4: but second best player. I know that's gonna skew the
1:55:24
Speaker 4: line a little bit towards Detroit, but I don't like it.
1:55:27
Speaker 4: I'm gonna lean to Detroit here. We have the money.
1:55:29
Speaker 4: Agree is on that we have sixty one percent of
1:55:31
Speaker 4: tickets and only fifty nine percent of the casual in Orlando.
1:55:35
Speaker 4: You know, I think the biggest regression point is Orlando
1:55:38
Speaker 4: three pointers. I don't want to play the game or anything.
1:55:41
Speaker 4: You got to lay three and a half or four
1:55:42
Speaker 4: with Detroit, but that's the way I would lean. I
1:55:45
Speaker 4: think the better team is going to wind up coming
1:55:47
Speaker 4: out on top, but Orlando does have more experience there.
1:55:50
Speaker 4: You know, they got a sense of urgency here though
1:55:52
Speaker 4: both teams do, because Detroit is facing elimination here, so
1:55:57
Speaker 4: you know, but Orlando's getting points at home, so yes,
1:55:59
Speaker 4: there is something to be said about that. The totals
1:56:01
Speaker 4: low at two nine and a half. I don't really
1:56:03
Speaker 4: have a good opinion on the total in this one though,
1:56:05
Speaker 4: but probably slightly lean under. When you get to games
1:56:09
Speaker 4: that are like this, I know the teams are a
1:56:10
Speaker 4: little bit unrested, which does affect the deepmense negatively, but
1:56:13
Speaker 4: game six game seven usually get much more deepfensive intensity
1:56:18
Speaker 4: and offense is not wanting to screw up, so I
1:56:21
Speaker 4: think it under makes sense, especially because the previous game
1:56:23
Speaker 4: went over. Maybe there'll be a little bit of shooting
1:56:26
Speaker 4: regression there. So I don't love it, but I think
1:56:29
Speaker 4: I prefer the Detroit side here. Slight lean for me
1:56:31
Speaker 4: to the under as well. The money is indicating towards
1:56:34
Speaker 4: the over, though ninety percent of tickets fifty eight percent
1:56:37
Speaker 4: of cash on the under. I would not want to
1:56:39
Speaker 4: go over in that one, though it looks like you
1:56:42
Speaker 4: can find two ten to ten and a half out there.
1:56:46
Speaker 4: Next game is uh Cleveland and Toronto. Cleveland barely escaped
1:56:51
Speaker 4: in the last game. That was a bizarre game, dude.
1:56:54
Speaker 4: Uh Cleveland did not cover for us, even though they
1:56:56
Speaker 4: had a really good second half. They were winning by
1:56:59
Speaker 4: nine in the fourth quarter multiple times, and they couldn't
1:57:01
Speaker 4: extend the lead further and cover even though Toronto's not
1:57:04
Speaker 4: that good on the road, although they're gonna be at
1:57:06
Speaker 4: home this time. But Toronto shot way too well in
1:57:09
Speaker 4: the first half of this game, and that screwed us
1:57:11
Speaker 4: big time. Toronto was leading more than half of the game,
1:57:15
Speaker 4: and that was good, Dude, Toronto shot really well in
1:57:17
Speaker 4: the first part of this game, but then they really
1:57:20
Speaker 4: had a They were just horrible shooting in the second
1:57:23
Speaker 4: part of the game. And in fact, it was Cleveland
1:57:25
Speaker 4: that actually wound up shooting better than Toronto in the
1:57:27
Speaker 4: game fifty three percent from the field, fifty from three.
1:57:32
Speaker 4: I think there's gonna be some Cleveland regression after that, dude.
1:57:35
Speaker 4: I do Toronto is at least a pretty good defensive team.
1:57:39
Speaker 4: They're gonna be an underdog here at home the better defense.
1:57:42
Speaker 4: As an underdog man. Toronto's won both games at home
1:57:46
Speaker 4: outright so far, so you know that means I'm probably
1:57:48
Speaker 4: gonna be leaning towards Toronto here. Toronto was actually better
1:57:52
Speaker 4: in that game than maybe you would think. Uh. They
1:57:54
Speaker 4: actually had way more field goal attempts in the game
1:57:56
Speaker 4: than Cleveland didn't. There wasn't like a huge free throw
1:57:58
Speaker 4: to sparity. They had fourteen more field goal attempts in
1:58:02
Speaker 4: the game, so they had way more possessions. Toronto dominated
1:58:05
Speaker 4: the rebound battle. There were plus thirteen in rebounds. That's
1:58:09
Speaker 4: pretty shocking given that I don't think Toronto's even that
1:58:12
Speaker 4: good of a paint team, and Cleveland has a couple
1:58:15
Speaker 4: of big guys, you know, Mobley and Allen. I believe,
1:58:19
Speaker 4: I don't know how Toronto did that, but that's not
1:58:21
Speaker 4: a great sign, dude, for Cleveland. The fact that Cleveland
1:58:24
Speaker 4: could shoot that well still barely win the game. Toronto
1:58:28
Speaker 4: had way more field goal attempts, and Toronto was bad
1:58:30
Speaker 4: from the free throw line sixty eight percent, so they'll
1:58:32
Speaker 4: probably do a little bit better in that department here,
1:58:35
Speaker 4: and again the fact that Toronto dominated the rebound battles,
1:58:38
Speaker 4: some of that does not look good for Cleveland here.
1:58:42
Speaker 4: I know, I thought Cleveland was gonna win the series easily,
1:58:45
Speaker 4: but that has not been the case, and I'm gonna
1:58:47
Speaker 4: lean to Toronto here. Although the money is back in Cleveland,
1:58:49
Speaker 4: I don't agree with it. Also, I don't think there
1:58:52
Speaker 4: are any injuries here. And Cleveland was laying two and
1:58:55
Speaker 4: a half three in the first road games and now
1:58:57
Speaker 4: they're laying four and a half, So why they laying
1:59:00
Speaker 4: more points here? I think the number doesn't make sense
1:59:04
Speaker 4: to me unless there are injuries, which I don't believe
1:59:06
Speaker 4: there are. So I think there's extra value on Toronto,
1:59:09
Speaker 4: Like why are they getting a bigger price here now
1:59:12
Speaker 4: after playing a close game? You know what I mean?
1:59:15
Speaker 4: Actually my mistake. It looks like it is quickly, although
1:59:18
Speaker 4: he missed the last game too though quickly for Toronto.
1:59:22
Speaker 4: So he is out and he's you know, a big
1:59:26
Speaker 4: piece for them, but still he didn't play in the
1:59:28
Speaker 4: last game either, although maybe they stepped it up without him,
1:59:31
Speaker 4: but he's not their star player. It looks like Brandon
1:59:33
Speaker 4: Ingram is on the injury report he's questionable, but obviously
1:59:37
Speaker 4: this is the playoffs. If he can go, he's gonna go.
1:59:39
Speaker 4: But Toronto does need him. He's one of their best scores,
1:59:42
Speaker 4: so that maybe factoring into the line there. But I
1:59:45
Speaker 4: think he's gonna play. That would be my guess unless
1:59:48
Speaker 4: something really crazy happens. I mean, it's the playoffs. He's
1:59:52
Speaker 4: one of their best players. If it's not a serious injury,
1:59:55
Speaker 4: he's probably gonna be out there. I'm gonna lean towards
1:59:58
Speaker 4: Toronto plus the points there, even though they sixty four
2:00:00
Speaker 4: percent of the tickets and only fifty one percent of
2:00:02
Speaker 4: the cash. This is the only total in the NBA
2:00:05
Speaker 4: today that's a that's above two ten. Really, uh, this
2:00:10
Speaker 4: is at to eighteen and a half. I don't really
2:00:12
Speaker 4: have a good field. The last game went way over,
2:00:14
Speaker 4: so I mean, if Toronto's gonna cover, it probably indicates
2:00:17
Speaker 4: that it's gonna go under, you know, Like I think
2:00:21
Speaker 4: if Toronto's gonna cover, they need to slow the game
2:00:23
Speaker 4: down and play good deepfense. So I think Toronto covering
2:00:26
Speaker 4: is probably correlated to the game being lower scoring. Cleveland
2:00:29
Speaker 4: is a better offense, so they need to score more.
2:00:32
Speaker 4: So an over probably benefits Cleveland, So I'm gonna lean
2:00:34
Speaker 4: under in that game as well. The money does agree
2:00:37
Speaker 4: with that, sixty five percent of tickets seventy eight percent
2:00:39
Speaker 4: of the cash on the under. Weird that the money
2:00:41
Speaker 4: is not agreeing with those bets that I think are
2:00:46
Speaker 4: actually probably correlated. And then we have the Lakers at Houston. Dude,
2:00:50
Speaker 4: I so want to see the Lakers be the first
2:00:53
Speaker 4: team to ever blow a three to zero lead in
2:00:55
Speaker 4: the playoffs. I don't think it's gonna happen, but it
2:00:57
Speaker 4: would be so amazing if it happened. Now, Kevin Durant
2:01:00
Speaker 4: is out for the remainder of the season, but he's
2:01:02
Speaker 4: only played like one one game in the series, so
2:01:06
Speaker 4: I don't think that's bad. And in fact, I think
2:01:09
Speaker 4: now that Houston knows Durant's not playing, I think that
2:01:12
Speaker 4: actually helps them a little bit because that question mark
2:01:15
Speaker 4: is just out of there, like we know he's not playing. Okay,
2:01:18
Speaker 4: forget about it, you know what I mean? Now? The
2:01:21
Speaker 4: problem is Houston. They won two games in a row,
2:01:26
Speaker 4: you know, going the series shifting back to the Lakers
2:01:29
Speaker 4: here or no, wait, this game's in Houston, isn't it. Wait?
2:01:34
Speaker 4: What am I saying Houston's the home team here. Yeah,
2:01:37
Speaker 4: what am I saying? So Houston actually just won on
2:01:39
Speaker 4: the road at the Lakers, So yeah, it could be
2:01:41
Speaker 4: a bounce back spot for the Lakers because you know,
2:01:43
Speaker 4: in the playoffs, when a team loses as a home favorite,
2:01:46
Speaker 4: like the Lakers did, you know, a lot of times
2:01:48
Speaker 4: I will look for them to bounce back as the
2:01:51
Speaker 4: road for the road underdog in the next game. So
2:01:54
Speaker 4: that would have been leaning towards the Lakers a little bit. Now,
2:01:56
Speaker 4: Austin Reeves is back. He came back for the Lakers.
2:01:59
Speaker 4: He had a bed shooting game, but he shot well
2:02:02
Speaker 4: from the free throw line. He went to the free
2:02:04
Speaker 4: throw line a lot. And you know, I always talk
2:02:06
Speaker 4: about when that player comes back that first game, a
2:02:08
Speaker 4: lot of times he's shaky and the team doesn't do
2:02:11
Speaker 4: that well, but then he does a lot better in
2:02:12
Speaker 4: the next game. So Reeves is probably gonna do better
2:02:15
Speaker 4: in this game. So you know, I don't really do
2:02:17
Speaker 4: much with player props, but Reeves like, you know, an
2:02:20
Speaker 4: over Reeves points or something like that, especially because he
2:02:23
Speaker 4: was like four for sixteen in the previous game, although
2:02:26
Speaker 4: his free throws did give him a lot of points.
2:02:29
Speaker 4: But I would probably look to go Reeves over his
2:02:31
Speaker 4: point total if I was going to play any of
2:02:33
Speaker 4: the props here. Houston, it's difficult to gauge because their
2:02:37
Speaker 4: offense just really really struggles at times. Now, Houston, what
2:02:42
Speaker 4: they do well is they do defend better than the
2:02:44
Speaker 4: Lakers do. I look at what happened in this game,
2:02:47
Speaker 4: the previous game. I want to look at the previous game.
2:02:49
Speaker 4: What am I saying? Hold on? I want to see, like,
2:02:53
Speaker 4: were there any outliers or anything in this game? You
2:02:55
Speaker 4: know what I mean? That's how I kind of gauge
2:02:58
Speaker 4: these playoffs here, these zigzags, and not really. I mean,
2:03:01
Speaker 4: both teams didn't shoot particularly well from three point range.
2:03:05
Speaker 4: You know, free throws were pretty similar. Both field goal
2:03:08
Speaker 4: percentages were very similar, same amount of field goal attempts
2:03:11
Speaker 4: to the one. I guess outlier here is Houston actually surprising.
2:03:15
Speaker 4: He hit seven more three pointers than the Lakers did,
2:03:18
Speaker 4: so that is probably gonna regress. Thirty five percent is
2:03:21
Speaker 4: kind of a normal three point percentage, although Houston actually
2:03:24
Speaker 4: is not a good three point shooting team, although they
2:03:26
Speaker 4: do shoot better at home and this was on the road. Here,
2:03:29
Speaker 4: Lakers probably will shoot better than twenty six percent like Reeves,
2:03:33
Speaker 4: I don't think is gonna miss that many threes again.
2:03:35
Speaker 4: And the Lakers outrebounded Houston by seven, so that's not
2:03:39
Speaker 4: a great sign for Houston. And the Lakers lost the
2:03:42
Speaker 4: turnover battle, so that didn't help them. But yeah, I
2:03:45
Speaker 4: think the Lakers. The biggest regression point here is the
2:03:48
Speaker 4: three pointers probably gonna swing back in favor of the
2:03:51
Speaker 4: Lakers here. I'm gonna lean Lakers. The problem is the
2:03:55
Speaker 4: line has been shifted a lot, dude, because Durant is
2:03:58
Speaker 4: out and re is in. And you remember when Durant
2:04:02
Speaker 4: was playing for Houston and Reeves was still out, Houston
2:04:06
Speaker 4: was like a ten point favorite at home, and now
2:04:08
Speaker 4: they're three and a half. So I just don't really
2:04:11
Speaker 4: think there's much line value to play the Lakers here,
2:04:13
Speaker 4: you know what I mean, Like, I think the line's
2:04:15
Speaker 4: over adjusted to Durant being out. I honestly, I don't
2:04:19
Speaker 4: think that's that much of a downgrade for Houston. Reeves
2:04:22
Speaker 4: being back as a big upgrade for the Lakers. True,
2:04:25
Speaker 4: But you know, I just don't see how the combination
2:04:28
Speaker 4: of those two things results in, you know, like a
2:04:31
Speaker 4: seven point swing in the line. Like I think, you know,
2:04:34
Speaker 4: probably about a five point swing might be a little
2:04:36
Speaker 4: bit more justified here, So I think Houston probably should
2:04:40
Speaker 4: be about a four or five point favorite here, more
2:04:42
Speaker 4: so maybe four and a half five. I'll still lean
2:04:47
Speaker 4: to the Lakers plus the points though they got sixty
2:04:48
Speaker 4: percent of tickets sixty nine percent of the cash on them.
2:04:51
Speaker 4: Money looks to good agrees there. And then the money
2:04:54
Speaker 4: is coming in on the under in that game, which
2:04:56
Speaker 4: I don't agree with that. I know these series once
2:04:59
Speaker 4: again game six, Like I said, whatever, a lot of
2:05:01
Speaker 4: those games will go under. That's another reason to like
2:05:04
Speaker 4: the under in all three games today, by the way,
2:05:06
Speaker 4: another reason to like Cleveland Toronto to go under. But
2:05:09
Speaker 4: in this game, I don't like it because the game
2:05:11
Speaker 4: was solow scoring in the previous game, neither team even
2:05:14
Speaker 4: cracked one hundred. I would probably slightly lean over in
2:05:18
Speaker 4: this Houston Laker game. Here total really low two point
2:05:22
Speaker 4: five and a half, and again Reeves didn't shoot well
2:05:25
Speaker 4: like I think the biggest outlier probably was the Lakers
2:05:28
Speaker 4: shooting very poorly in the game. So if that positively
2:05:31
Speaker 4: regresses more than anything else, you're probably gonna get more
2:05:33
Speaker 4: points in that game. So those are my thoughts. That's
2:05:38
Speaker 4: it man. Once again, all the players are in baseball
2:05:41
Speaker 4: today and hopefully we can get it. We have Texas
2:05:45
Speaker 4: on the money line, run lines on these road teams,
2:05:48
Speaker 4: minus one and a half on the Brewers and on
2:05:50
Speaker 4: the Dodgers. Hopefully we can get it done with those
2:05:53
Speaker 4: and under in Kansas City, Seattle. I know, I feel
2:05:56
Speaker 4: like we're splashing the board a little bit. I like
2:05:58
Speaker 4: the baseball board today more than usual, which sometimes does
2:06:01
Speaker 4: happen on a Friday. When you have those crossovers into
2:06:04
Speaker 4: the next series, sometimes they will have more sides, and
2:06:06
Speaker 4: I thought it would be fading the teams that played
2:06:09
Speaker 4: multiple games yesterday, but that's not what the case is. Anyway,
2:06:14
Speaker 4: Learn to tone on Twitter. You can subscribe to me there.
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Speaker 4: That helps me out. Learn a tone on Instagram. What
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Speaker 4: else do I have to promote here? Obviously this show,
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Speaker 4: Like subscribe here you'll get notified. I'll probably come back
2:06:26
Speaker 4: into a Kentucky Derby show at some point later today,
2:06:29
Speaker 4: so be on the lookout for that because that is tomorrow.
2:06:31
Speaker 4: So I got to do it at some point today.
2:06:33
Speaker 4: I'm kind of an idiot when it comes to it,
2:06:35
Speaker 4: but you know, I'll basically I'll give you my general
2:06:38
Speaker 4: opinions on it. How about that? So we'll talk about that.
2:06:42
Speaker 4: I got to look to see when I want to
2:06:44
Speaker 4: do like an NFL season win total show. So figure
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Speaker 4: that out. But subscribe here you'll get notified. Hopefully we're
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Speaker 4: on audio as well. Listening over there helps me out. Apple, Spotify, Spreaker,
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Speaker 4: all that good stuff. Give me good reviews over there.
2:06:57
Speaker 4: That helps me out as well. Covereding you because my
2:07:00
Speaker 4: yuke channel on YouTube, I've been slowly trickling in some
2:07:02
Speaker 4: new yuke covers. My index finger really hurts right now
2:07:06
Speaker 4: from slapping the yuke because I don't play the yuke correctly.
2:07:11
Speaker 4: Then what else? Patreon dot com, slash and learn to
2:07:14
Speaker 4: Toe there's some extra yuke stuff there. I know I've
2:07:17
Speaker 4: been saying for that mid tier I want to do
2:07:19
Speaker 4: some Patreon streams or I jam on the yuke for
2:07:22
Speaker 4: the first couple of times I do it, I probably
2:07:24
Speaker 4: should just not lock it down for Patreons, though, I
2:07:27
Speaker 4: don't know. I got to do that at some point,
2:07:28
Speaker 4: I just haven't really had the time to do it.
2:07:31
Speaker 4: I don't know, even though, what do I really do?
2:07:33
Speaker 4: Though I don't do anything well, I don't know, you know,
2:07:35
Speaker 4: I do the sports Betty takes up more time than
2:07:38
Speaker 4: you think, even though I used to do this, Plus
2:07:41
Speaker 4: you know, working in full time jobs, so I don't
2:07:43
Speaker 4: know what else we have. We a Loser cast every
2:07:46
Speaker 4: Tuesday night. You can check that out thanks to squee
2:07:51
Speaker 4: Am I getting his name right. Squee I don't know
2:07:53
Speaker 4: he was on the show. He's putting out a lot
2:07:56
Speaker 4: of clips from that episode, so you can go check
2:07:58
Speaker 4: that out on his Twitter. I've been reposting them so
2:08:01
Speaker 4: if you look at my Twitter you'll see them. And
2:08:03
Speaker 4: then the g Spot Giants podcast. I talked to Ben,
2:08:07
Speaker 4: so we're probably gonna do a draft recap show soon,
2:08:10
Speaker 4: so we'll figure that. I'll be on the lookout for
2:08:12
Speaker 4: that too. That's gonna do it. I appreciate it, guys.
2:08:16
Speaker 2: Peace, but don't you go quiet. Don't you pay from
2:08:22
Speaker 2: the flow. Your name still mean something to somebody for show.
2:08:28
Speaker 2: Put the glass down, baby.
2:08:31
Speaker 4: Look at me.
2:08:32
Speaker 3: No hold on, hold on latting, No hold on hold
2:08:46
Speaker 3: on me for.
2:08:52
Speaker 1: That bites hot, but it don't get the crown. Hold on,
2:09:02
Speaker 1: hold on and stay with me now.