Transcript

Sharri | 29 October · Sharri

0:06
Speaker 1: Thanks, Andrew.
0:07
Speaker 2: Good evening.
0:07
Speaker 1: Well, tonight, the Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese, is set to
0:11
Speaker 1: skip Australia for the Caribbean as rates rise for the
0:15
Speaker 1: 17th time under his government. Also on the show, I've
0:19
Speaker 1: got exclusive research which shows One Nation is on track
0:22
Speaker 1: to win around 24 seats in the New South Wales election.
0:27
Speaker 1: And will the Israeli president invite Benjamin Netanyahu to have
0:30
Speaker 1: a chance at forming a governing coalition? We'll cross live
0:34
Speaker 1: to Israel with Jonathan Conricus for the latest. It's a
0:37
Speaker 1: big show with Matt Canavan, One Nation New South Wales
0:40
Speaker 1: leader Mike Newman, John O'Donoghue, Adam Crichton and more. But first,
0:46
Speaker 1: Australia faces its fifth rate rise this year on Tuesday,
0:51
Speaker 1: and this will be the 17th under the Albanese government,
0:55
Speaker 1: adding tens of thousands of dollars a year to the
0:58
Speaker 1: average household mortgage, hurting the hip pocket of hardworking families. Well,
1:04
Speaker 1: now the Albanese government claims this is all because of
1:07
Speaker 1: the Iran war in the Middle East.
1:10
Speaker 3: You have fuel increases.
1:14
Speaker 4: as you've had as a result of the war in
1:16
Speaker 4: the Middle East. And what you're seeing is inflationary pressures
1:19
Speaker 4: being a global phenomenon, which is why you've seen interest
1:23
Speaker 4: rate increases.
1:24
Speaker 5: The tick up in the monthly headline data today was
1:27
Speaker 5: driven by the conflict. and this war could drive inflation
1:32
Speaker 5: up even higher. Pressures we're getting from around the world
1:34
Speaker 5: because of these international developments. We already had an inflation
1:37
Speaker 5: challenge in our economy, and the war in the Middle
1:40
Speaker 5: East is making it worse.
1:42
Speaker 4: The war in the Middle East has caused the biggest
1:44
Speaker 4: spike in petrol and diesel prices in history.
1:47
Speaker 5: The key thing that will determine just how tough those
1:51
Speaker 5: consequences are will be how long the war continues for.
1:54
Speaker 4: The war in the Middle East has caused the biggest
1:57
Speaker 4: increase in petrol and diesel prices in history.
2:02
Speaker 1: Well, let's look at this claim. It is true that
2:05
Speaker 1: the RBA says the Iran war is partly contributing to inflation.
2:11
Speaker 1: But it's not true that the war in Iran is
2:13
Speaker 1: why we're stuck with high inflation and have rates rising.
2:18
Speaker 1: In fact, RBA Governor Michelle Bullock has repeatedly said that
2:21
Speaker 1: inflation was too high before the war. It's been driven
2:26
Speaker 1: by domestic pressures like productivity and government spending. And out
2:31
Speaker 1: of all the advanced economies globally, Australia is the only one,
2:36
Speaker 1: the only one that has had four rate rises this year.
2:41
Speaker 1: Iceland is the only country that has had three. Out
2:44
Speaker 1: of the 43 advanced economies tracked by the IMF, 28
2:49
Speaker 1: countries have had two rate rises, six have had one,
2:53
Speaker 1: and seven haven't had any. No rate rises at all.
2:59
Speaker 1: And this includes the UK, Sweden, Switzerland, Israel, Taiwan and Singapore.
3:05
Speaker 1: And the United States Federal Reserve just decided not to
3:08
Speaker 1: raise rates.
3:10
Speaker 6: This morning, the FOMC decided to maintain the target rate
3:14
Speaker 6: for the federal funds rate at 3.75% to 4% in
3:18
Speaker 6: support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. Economic activity is
3:23
Speaker 6: expanding at a strong pace.
3:26
Speaker 1: Then when you compare our cash rate with other developed economies,
3:31
Speaker 1: Australia's is the highest, sitting on 4.6%. Norway, 4.5%. The
3:38
Speaker 1: United States is between 3.75% and 4%. The UK, 3.75%.
3:43
Speaker 1: New Zealand, 2.7%. Canada, and it goes on, Japan, 1.25%. Switzerland, 0%. Now,
3:53
Speaker 1: this is a point Liberal MP Simon Kennedy has been making.
3:57
Speaker 7: Just on the war in the Middle East, there's 43
4:00
Speaker 7: advanced economies in the world. We are the only advanced economy,
4:04
Speaker 7: the only one, that has raised interest rates four times
4:08
Speaker 7: this year.
4:09
Speaker 8: We are a global outlier. Now, why are we a
4:13
Speaker 8: global outlier?
4:14
Speaker 7: Well, if you go back before the war in the
4:15
Speaker 7: Middle East, before the war in Iran, of those 43 countries,
4:21
Speaker 7: we were in the top three for inflation. We had
4:24
Speaker 7: the third highest inflation of all those 43 countries. What
4:28
Speaker 7: are you doing, mate?
4:29
Speaker 2: What are you doing?
4:32
Speaker 1: So we know inflation was a major problem in Australia
4:36
Speaker 1: before the war in Iran began. And as Simon Kennedy says,
4:39
Speaker 1: the question then is why is our country the economic
4:43
Speaker 1: outlier globally? I mean, the main issues economists continually identify
4:48
Speaker 1: are government spending and productivity. And now the RBA Governor
4:52
Speaker 1: Michelle Bullock has blatantly spoken about the government spending at
4:56
Speaker 1: both a state and federal level.
4:59
Speaker 5: Government spending is Federal and state, I have to say here,
5:04
Speaker 5: more contributes to aggregate demand.
5:06
Speaker 2: In some way.
5:08
Speaker 1: Look, and the Prime Minister, the government knows the economy
5:12
Speaker 1: is in a perilous position and that families are feeling it,
5:15
Speaker 1: to the point that Albanese is considering reversing the controversial
5:20
Speaker 1: tax changes.
5:22
Speaker 4: We've shown through the consultation process as well there have
5:25
Speaker 4: been a number of adjustments made and that's appropriate. But
5:29
Speaker 4: that's why we need to look at These reforms, we
5:33
Speaker 4: think that we've got the measures right.
5:38
Speaker 1: Look, this goes to the heart of what I've been
5:40
Speaker 1: reporting over the past month or so, the tensions that
5:43
Speaker 1: are emerging between the Prime Minister and the Treasurer. And
5:47
Speaker 1: I told you a few weeks ago that Albanese had
5:49
Speaker 1: been making it clear, unprofessionally, I would say, to business
5:54
Speaker 1: and political leaders that Chalmers was responsible for the budget.
5:58
Speaker 1: I mean, this is basically shafting his own Treasurer. Well,
6:02
Speaker 1: investor Chris Pronte today makes the point in an article
6:06
Speaker 1: in Rampart that the spending situation is even worse than
6:10
Speaker 1: what is being widely reported in the media because of
6:13
Speaker 1: the size of the expenditure that's off the books. He writes,
6:18
Speaker 1: add the investments to payments and Chalmers' spending averages 26.6%
6:23
Speaker 1: of GDP across his years as Treasurer and his own
6:28
Speaker 1: forward estimates. And he makes the point that it's actually
6:32
Speaker 1: even slightly higher than that at 27%. And he says
6:35
Speaker 1: that inflation first surprised in October 2025 and that rate
6:40
Speaker 1: cuts were off the table months before anyone had even
6:43
Speaker 1: heard of the Strait of Hormuz. He writes, blaming a
6:47
Speaker 1: war that hadn't yet started for inflation, that had already started,
6:52
Speaker 1: is the fiscal equivalent of the CFO blaming next year's
6:55
Speaker 1: cyclone for this year's miss. And he suggests a listed
7:00
Speaker 1: company that refuses to constrain costs would be downgraded and
7:05
Speaker 1: taken to the woodshed. And he says Treasury has been
7:09
Speaker 1: politically captured. A point the former Treasury official David Pearl
7:14
Speaker 1: has also been making on this program. He says the
7:16
Speaker 1: Treasury is too politicised, not giving the best advice. Now,
7:22
Speaker 1: the heat will be on the Prime Minister and Treasurer
7:25
Speaker 1: next week when rates rise again. And the Prime Minister
7:29
Speaker 1: will conveniently be out of the country at Chogham in
7:33
Speaker 1: the Caribbean. Albanese previously blamed former Prime Minister Scott Morrison
7:39
Speaker 1: when there was a single rise, just one rate rise
7:42
Speaker 1: under his leadership.
7:44
Speaker 4: What we know is that under Scott Morrison, cost of
7:48
Speaker 4: living is in crisis. We know that the price of
7:52
Speaker 4: everything is going up, but people's wages aren't. And today, potentially,
7:56
Speaker 4: we face the triple whammy. Lower wages, rising inflation and
8:03
Speaker 4: rising interest rates. Scott Morrison, of course, is happy to
8:07
Speaker 4: always take credit for anything that goes right. But he
8:12
Speaker 4: always says it's not my job, it's someone else's fault,
8:15
Speaker 4: it's nothing to do with me when things aren't going
8:18
Speaker 4: so well.
8:21
Speaker 1: Who does that sound like now? Well, Albanese has no
8:25
Speaker 1: one to blame for the 17 rate rises under his
8:28
Speaker 1: prime ministership. It'll be 17 on Tuesday. Well, that is
8:33
Speaker 1: no one to blame except for his own treasurer. We
8:36
Speaker 1: know Albanese doesn't accept responsibility. He's nothing if not a
8:41
Speaker 1: ruthless politician. Whether he decides to make a change to
8:45
Speaker 1: Andrew Charlton is the subject of much speculation. And joining
8:52
Speaker 1: me now live from Canberra is Nationals leader Matt Canavan. Matt,
8:56
Speaker 1: great to see you. Look, with rates expected to rise
9:00
Speaker 1: for the 17th time on Tuesday, do you believe, are
9:03
Speaker 1: you confident that the RBA and the government have inflation
9:08
Speaker 1: under control?
9:10
Speaker 9: Well, I don't think the RBA and the government are
9:11
Speaker 9: on the same page. We've seen the RBA for months
9:14
Speaker 9: now warn about the impact of government spending. It's a
9:18
Speaker 9: pretty unusual statement for the RBA to make. Normally they're
9:22
Speaker 9: pretty diplomatic, but obviously even their patience is wearing thin
9:27
Speaker 9: with a government that continues to spend so much money
9:31
Speaker 9: at a time of clearly excess demand, high inflation and
9:34
Speaker 9: now interest rates going up too. The recipe this economy
9:37
Speaker 9: needed in the last few years is a restrained government,
9:40
Speaker 9: a government that sought to take the fuel away from
9:43
Speaker 9: the inflation fire that was burning, a government that focused
9:46
Speaker 9: instead on trying to make the economy more productive and
9:49
Speaker 9: cutting red tape so that we could produce more goods
9:52
Speaker 9: to chase or to supply the extra demand that's clearly
9:55
Speaker 9: in our economy.
9:56
Speaker 2: Instead, we've had the opposite.
9:57
Speaker 9: We've had a government that's laid on red tape. wherever
10:00
Speaker 9: they could find it, higher taxes and, of course, spending
10:04
Speaker 9: at 40-year highs. That has fuelled inflation. All major economists
10:08
Speaker 9: now say that, almost all economists say. It's very hard
10:11
Speaker 9: to get economists to agree on something, but spending is clearly,
10:14
Speaker 9: government spending is clearly inflationary right now. It should come down,
10:18
Speaker 9: but I'm not holding my breath from this government because
10:21
Speaker 9: they seem addicted to it. They're refusing all requests to
10:24
Speaker 9: do a proper audit or review of spending. They're not
10:27
Speaker 9: even saying they're going to necessarily have savings in the
10:29
Speaker 9: next budget update just before Christmas. If the Treasurer can't
10:32
Speaker 9: deliver the savings our economy needs, that Australian families need
10:35
Speaker 9: to take pressure off them, maybe it's.
10:37
Speaker 2: Time there's a new Treasurer. Maybe the Prime Minister should
10:39
Speaker 2: start looking at that.
10:41
Speaker 1: Look, you raised the issue of government spending. Well, Albanese
10:45
Speaker 1: was asked about it this morning. He did not admit,
10:48
Speaker 1: of course, that his government was fuelling inflation and he
10:51
Speaker 1: ruled out spending cuts. Have a quick look.
10:53
Speaker 9: Which areas of expenditure is the government looking at cutting down?
10:58
Speaker 4: We'll continue to have those discussions in a small room
11:01
Speaker 4: in there.
11:01
Speaker 10: Do you concede that government spending is too high, is
11:05
Speaker 10: contributing to inflation?
11:06
Speaker 2: And have you told your ministers.
11:08
Speaker 7: to find a new suite of savings as part of my.
11:11
Speaker 4: No, well, aggregate demand consists of public and private.
11:17
Speaker 1: I mean, Matt, tonight and in general, you have been
11:20
Speaker 1: calling on the government to cut spending, but can you
11:23
Speaker 1: nominate a figure?
11:26
Speaker 2: We... Just this week, Shara, it started this week, we.
11:29
Speaker 9: outlined $ 31 billion of government spending that we think can
11:33
Speaker 9: be cut.
11:34
Speaker 2: Now, this is just a start. We're not saying this
11:36
Speaker 2: is all of our costings or anything.
11:38
Speaker 1: But is that how much you're saying needs to be
11:39
Speaker 1: cut to tame inflation, $ 31 billion?
11:42
Speaker 9: Look, I think over time we need more than that. Look,
11:47
Speaker 9: I basically... Just let me finish the $ 31 billion.
11:49
Speaker 2: I think it's important.
11:50
Speaker 9: That is effectively the cost of net zero, which we
11:53
Speaker 9: would scrap. It's the cost of the extra bureaucracy that
11:56
Speaker 9: is not building homes but has housing on their titles,
12:00
Speaker 9: we'd cut that as well. And that would help pay
12:02
Speaker 9: for tax cuts. It would help more than pay, so
12:04
Speaker 9: it would be a net budget saving for us to
12:07
Speaker 9: index tax thresholds to inflation, giving an automatic tax cut
12:10
Speaker 9: to all Australians and also avoiding a wage price spiral
12:13
Speaker 9: because this means that when inflation goes up, Australian workers
12:17
Speaker 9: would get an automatic tax cut. They wouldn't necessarily have
12:19
Speaker 9: to be asked that from their employer.
12:21
Speaker 1: I appreciate what you're saying, but can we go back
12:24
Speaker 1: to my question? Have you nominated a figure of a
12:27
Speaker 1: percentage of GDP that you think spending needs to come
12:29
Speaker 1: down to?
12:32
Speaker 9: Not a particular GDP number. That's all being worked through
12:35
Speaker 9: and it will be released, but without costings. But I
12:37
Speaker 9: think a general rule of thumb here that we should
12:41
Speaker 9: be looking at is that since COVID, we are now
12:45
Speaker 9: spending $ 300 billion a year more here in Canberra than
12:50
Speaker 9: we did before COVID. That's a remarkable figure for one.
12:54
Speaker 9: About $ 100 billion or so of that is inflation, so
12:56
Speaker 9: there's not much to do about that. I think roughly
12:58
Speaker 9: $ 100 billion is spending we needed to do on defence,
13:01
Speaker 9: on aged care, some parts of the NDIS.
13:03
Speaker 2: It's important we look after disabled people.
13:05
Speaker 9: But, of course, there's then elements of the NDIS that
13:07
Speaker 9: have been exposed to scams and.
13:09
Speaker 2: Frauds, and it's way bigger than it was originally envisaged.
13:12
Speaker 9: So there's another $ 100 billion there, though, that we need
13:14
Speaker 9: to look at closely. Now, whether or not all of
13:16
Speaker 9: that can be cut straight away, we'll be looking at
13:18
Speaker 9: that before the election. We've announced $ 30 billion. We'll keep
13:23
Speaker 9: looking at this closely. And we are doing more work
13:25
Speaker 9: from opposition than the government is, as you heard just
13:27
Speaker 9: then from that answer. The Prime Minister doesn't seem to
13:30
Speaker 9: have any clear focus on where he's focused on getting
13:33
Speaker 9: expenditure down.
13:35
Speaker 1: I want to get to a couple of other topics now,
13:37
Speaker 1: one being the golf grants and then also the free
13:39
Speaker 1: trade agreement. On the golf grants, the Prime Minister has
13:42
Speaker 1: been accused of misleading Parliament after claiming that the $ 6
13:46
Speaker 1: million grant to the Marrickville Golf Club wasn't an invitation-only scheme,
13:51
Speaker 1: despite government documents using exactly that label. We'll just have
13:55
Speaker 1: a quick look at the two leaders sparring over this today.
13:59
Speaker 4: This wasn't about invite only. This is an election commitment,
14:03
Speaker 4: just like the 1,000 election commitments made by those opposite,
14:08
Speaker 4: worth a total of $ 1.
14:11
Speaker 11: 644 billion. Mr Speaker, I seek leave to table the
14:15
Speaker 11: guidelines for the major and local community infrastructure program, showing
14:21
Speaker 11: this was an invitation-only program to correct the record because
14:26
Speaker 11: the Prime Minister just misled the House.
14:30
Speaker 1: Matt, do you think this matter should be examined by
14:32
Speaker 1: the corruption watchdog?
14:36
Speaker 2: Look, I think there are questions.
14:38
Speaker 9: There's a Senate inquiry right now, so I think we
14:40
Speaker 9: should let that do its job just first. I don't
14:44
Speaker 9: want to abuse the corruption watchdog with referring everything that
14:48
Speaker 9: comes forward to it, but there's inquiries going on. Clearly,
14:51
Speaker 9: the Prime Minister has misled the Parliament on multiple occasions now,
14:54
Speaker 9: including what you've just shown, but also on the fact
14:57
Speaker 9: that he had previously said this grant to the golf
14:59
Speaker 9: club was for sewage works.
15:01
Speaker 2: And that's proven to be completely false. It took him
15:04
Speaker 2: a long time.
15:04
Speaker 9: The problem here is the Prime Minister not just tells lies,
15:07
Speaker 9: he takes a long time to admit he's told lies,
15:09
Speaker 9: and that again does question whether what else he's telling
15:12
Speaker 9: is a fib. If he has to be caught red-handed
15:15
Speaker 9: before he admits that he was wrong, he doesn't do
15:17
Speaker 9: it on his own volition, that's for sure. You know,
15:20
Speaker 9: here the Prime Minister does say these are about election commitments. Yeah,
15:23
Speaker 9: of course, and I think Election commitments are important. We
15:26
Speaker 9: should tell people what we're going to do before they
15:29
Speaker 9: vote for us. The problem here is that 75% of
15:33
Speaker 9: Labor's election commitments were in Labor seats. I mean, I
15:36
Speaker 9: think we should govern for the whole country. We make
15:38
Speaker 9: commitments in all seats across the country. If you're elected,
15:41
Speaker 9: you deliver for all Australians, even those people who don't
15:44
Speaker 9: vote for you. But clearly the Labor Party are playing
15:47
Speaker 9: favourites with the Australian people here and ignoring many, many
15:50
Speaker 9: people who did not vote for them or maybe in
15:53
Speaker 9: seats who will never vote for them. And I don't
15:55
Speaker 9: think that's the right way to govern for the whole
15:57
Speaker 9: of Australia.
15:58
Speaker 1: You remember when this story first broke and the Prime
16:01
Speaker 1: Minister was annoyed at how the crack at the ABC
16:03
Speaker 1: publicly for breaking it and then who would have thought
16:05
Speaker 1: it would, you know, still be rolling a few weeks later.
16:09
Speaker 1: Just finally on the free trade agreement. Yeah, well, maybe
16:14
Speaker 1: his lesson is not to criticise the ABC. The Prime
16:17
Speaker 1: Minister has called the Coalition protectionist for rejecting the free
16:22
Speaker 1: trade deal, the European Free Trade Agreement. Now, Labor says
16:26
Speaker 1: this would create a $ 10 billion benefit in the first
16:29
Speaker 1: year alone. So why reject it, Matt?
16:33
Speaker 9: Well, I'll start with the $ 10 billion figure for a start.
16:36
Speaker 9: They're dodgy figures. That figure comes from EU modelling. We
16:41
Speaker 9: haven't done our own economic modelling. The modelling was done
16:43
Speaker 9: actually originally in 2017 before Brexit. It was updated in 2020.
16:49
Speaker 9: That figure, the $ 10 billion figure, assumes that the EU
16:53
Speaker 9: removes all tariffs and quotas on Australian agricultural products, and
16:57
Speaker 9: that's how you get to $ 10 billion. Now, I can
17:00
Speaker 9: tell you now, and I'll come to the reaction of
17:03
Speaker 9: Australian farmers on this proposed deal, the deal doesn't remove
17:07
Speaker 9: all tariffs and quotas on Australian farm products.
17:09
Speaker 2: Far from it. Far from it.
17:12
Speaker 9: And so the government has real questions to answer here
17:14
Speaker 9: for why it is using dodgy figures to sell a
17:17
Speaker 9: dud deal.
17:18
Speaker 2: Now, I asked about this in the Senate Estimates last night.
17:21
Speaker 9: I don't know if Don Farrell was even aware or
17:24
Speaker 9: ever even looked at the economic modelling.
17:26
Speaker 2: It just seemed to take it on face value. I did.
17:27
Speaker 2: I read through the EU's report.
17:29
Speaker 9: It also relied on, Shari, that $ 10 billion figure relied
17:31
Speaker 9: on us getting rid of the luxury car tax, which
17:34
Speaker 9: this deal doesn't do.
17:35
Speaker 2: I've got a clip of you grilling. This goes to
17:37
Speaker 2: the trust that you can't have in this government.
17:40
Speaker 1: I've got a clip of you grilling Don Farrell on
17:43
Speaker 1: the changes between the first version and this version. Let's
17:46
Speaker 1: have a look.
17:47
Speaker 9: Quickly, but first of all, you mentioned there were significant
17:49
Speaker 9: improvements in the deal from the last time you rejected
17:52
Speaker 9: it to the time you accepted it.
17:53
Speaker 2: What were they?
17:55
Speaker 6: I'll get a list of them for you, Senator, and
17:57
Speaker 6: send them through.
17:59
Speaker 2: You can't? I mean, you can't just give us the
18:01
Speaker 2: top three or so right now? Well, I can give
18:03
Speaker 2: you a range of them.
18:07
Speaker 6: But I'd like to give you an absolutely accurate response.
18:10
Speaker 2: Right. Okay. Well, the claim from others that saw the
18:14
Speaker 2: deal is it barely changed.
18:17
Speaker 1: Do you think it's odd he had to take that
18:19
Speaker 1: on notice? He didn't know off the top of his head?
18:23
Speaker 2: It's not just odd, Shari. It's very revealing.
18:27
Speaker 9: As that clip insinuated three years ago, Don Farrell, the
18:31
Speaker 9: same guy, and the Australian Government walked away from negotiations
18:34
Speaker 9: with the EU because they said the deal on the
18:37
Speaker 9: table was not good enough for Australia.
18:40
Speaker 2: Last night, Don.
18:41
Speaker 9: Farrell said that, well, he went back and signed the
18:44
Speaker 9: deal because there were significant improvements in the deal. As
18:47
Speaker 9: you just saw, he could not name a single improvement,
18:51
Speaker 9: significant or otherwise, could not name a single improvement. I mean,
18:54
Speaker 9: if there had been improvements that were significant, you would
18:57
Speaker 9: think they'd be significant enough for Don Farrell, who negotiated
18:59
Speaker 9: the deal, to be able to recall.
19:01
Speaker 2: Pretty quickly. I was going to say, just give us three.
19:04
Speaker 2: You couldn't do one.
19:04
Speaker 12: Yeah.
19:05
Speaker 1: I've got to move on. It's remarkable. I've got to
19:07
Speaker 1: move on. But just quickly, if the EU is saying
19:11
Speaker 1: that it will remove tariffs on agricultural products from Australia,
19:15
Speaker 1: I mean, you would trust the EU, wouldn't you?
19:18
Speaker 2: Oh, that's not the issue here, Shari. The issue is.
19:21
Speaker 9: is that the EU does not dismantle all of its protection.
19:25
Speaker 9: So it would continue under this deal to provide 30%
19:28
Speaker 9: of dairy farmers' incomes in Europe, taxpayer subsidies, and they
19:33
Speaker 9: would get to compete against our dairy farmers without any protection.
19:37
Speaker 9: This deal would remove a tariff that we have long
19:39
Speaker 9: put in place to respond to that EU protection and
19:42
Speaker 9: it would sacrifice our dairy industry. It's why dairy farmers
19:46
Speaker 9: today have put a release out saying carve us out.
19:48
Speaker 2: Of the deal. We don't want to be in the deal.
19:49
Speaker 13: All right.
19:50
Speaker 2: Right.
19:50
Speaker 9: They said they don't want their EU access because this
19:53
Speaker 9: would kill their industry and why won't the Australian government
19:55
Speaker 9: listen to Australian farmers? That's what I'm doing. I get
19:58
Speaker 9: called nativist for doing it. I don't care. I look
20:00
Speaker 9: after Australia first.
20:01
Speaker 1: All right. Matt Canavan, thank you very much. Well, One
20:07
Speaker 1: Nation is surging in New South Wales with Premier Chris
20:10
Speaker 1: Minns worried it could even cost him government. I can
20:13
Speaker 1: exclusively reveal One Nation's own research suggests they'll pick up
20:17
Speaker 1: 24 seats at the state election and the Liberals are
20:21
Speaker 1: tipped to win around 14. If true, that would be
20:25
Speaker 1: a shocking result. Now, Chris Minns knows he's set to
20:28
Speaker 1: lose seats to One Nation and it's the Prime Minister's
20:32
Speaker 1: toxic brand that's costing him votes. Minns is trying to
20:36
Speaker 1: differentiate himself from the Prime Minister, but the Prime Minister's
20:40
Speaker 1: performance on a daily basis continues to hurt him politically.
20:45
Speaker 1: In Question Time, Opposition Leader Angus Taylor summarised some of
20:49
Speaker 1: the issues for why voters are so angry at Albanese.
20:54
Speaker 11: The Prime Minister promised he wouldn't change CGT and negative
20:58
Speaker 11: gearing before the election, then he did. He promised a
21:02
Speaker 11: $ 275 cut to power bills that he never delivered. He
21:06
Speaker 11: said he didn't mock the Japanese Prime Minister when he did.
21:10
Speaker 11: He said he didn't fall off a stage when he did.
21:14
Speaker 11: He said his $ 6 billion grant to the Marrickville Golf
21:16
Speaker 11: Club was to fix sewerage flows when it wasn't. He
21:20
Speaker 11: said the relevant program wasn't invitation only.
21:23
Speaker 2: When it was.
21:24
Speaker 11: Why does this Prime Minister have such a difficult relationship
21:28
Speaker 11: with the truth?
21:32
Speaker 1: Well, with the New South Wales election in March, all
21:35
Speaker 1: of this is a serious problem for Chris Mintz. And
21:38
Speaker 1: joining me now is One Nation New South Wales leader
21:41
Speaker 1: Mike Newman and IPA chief economist Adam Crichton. Great to
21:44
Speaker 1: see you both. Well, Mike, starting with you on this,
21:48
Speaker 1: I've just said that One Nation is expecting to win
21:51
Speaker 1: around 24 seats in New South Wales at this point
21:55
Speaker 1: in time, the Liberals around 14. Will there be any
21:58
Speaker 1: nationals left?
22:00
Speaker 12: Well, that's a question for the voters in the regions.
22:03
Speaker 12: But look, we are polling very well, as you pointed out,
22:07
Speaker 12: in the regional areas. And look, I think it's just
22:10
Speaker 12: there's a lot of disaffected voters out there, whether it's firearms.
22:15
Speaker 12: We actually have got a rally in Cessnock tomorrow where
22:18
Speaker 12: we'll announce our firearms policy, but also renewable energy and
22:23
Speaker 12: all of the things that are going on there. And
22:25
Speaker 12: if you think of coal, where we've had so many problems,
22:30
Speaker 12: around whether it's Mount Pleasant and the flip-flopping on changing
22:34
Speaker 12: laws and scope three emissions, that is driving people towards
22:38
Speaker 12: One Nation.
22:39
Speaker 1: But just to answer my question, I mean, according to
22:42
Speaker 1: your research, will there be any nationals left?
22:46
Speaker 12: At the latest poll, is it possible that they may
22:51
Speaker 12: scrape home with one? But it's not looking good.
22:55
Speaker 1: And 24, that's about right for One Nation at the moment?
22:59
Speaker 1: seats in the New South Wales election?
23:01
Speaker 12: Well, again, there are polls, but we don't generally talk
23:04
Speaker 12: about our polling. But we are pretty confident that we
23:08
Speaker 12: could even do better than that.
23:11
Speaker 1: Adam, this could be an unprecedented election result with three
23:14
Speaker 1: major parties, none having a majority, kind of a bit
23:17
Speaker 1: like the Israeli election at the moment. And New South
23:21
Speaker 1: Wales is different because you don't have to give a preference.
23:25
Speaker 2: Yeah, certainly.
23:26
Speaker 13: That's actually a great virtue of the New South Wales
23:29
Speaker 13: of the New South Wales system, I should say. You
23:31
Speaker 13: only have to give a first preference if you like.
23:33
Speaker 13: And that's how it should be nationally, in my view. Certainly,
23:36
Speaker 13: I've gotten used to saying the three major parties now
23:39
Speaker 13: instead of the two major parties, which I've been saying
23:41
Speaker 13: for years. And I think that's fair enough, given the polling.
23:45
Speaker 13: I mean, historically, Queensland and New South Wales are much
23:47
Speaker 13: more conservative states than Victoria. So I'm not surprised that
23:51
Speaker 13: One Nation is doing so well in New South Wales.
23:54
Speaker 13: And I think Chris Minns and Labor realise that they
23:56
Speaker 13: are a major threat and indeed Mike Newman could indeed
24:01
Speaker 13: be the opposition leader or the Premier from March onwards
24:04
Speaker 13: next year. So the Victorian election is obviously the great test.
24:08
Speaker 13: So we have to wait, see what happens there.
24:11
Speaker 1: I mean, Mike, if you are winning 24 seats, I mean,
24:14
Speaker 1: you say you could even do better. But if it
24:15
Speaker 1: is around 24, that's not enough to get you into government, though,
24:18
Speaker 1: unless you do an alliance with the Liberals.
24:24
Speaker 12: Well, look, I mean, we have said that we would
24:26
Speaker 12: do things to get rid of this toxic Labor government.
24:30
Speaker 12: We think that they're, you know, I think even if
24:32
Speaker 12: you look this week, I mean, whether it's coffee cups or,
24:35
Speaker 12: you know, doing things like fining people half a million dollars,
24:39
Speaker 12: I mean, we should be reopening old Sydney town and
24:41
Speaker 12: putting people in stocks and get the cat and nine
24:43
Speaker 12: tails out. I mean, that's the level of what we're
24:45
Speaker 12: facing here. But look, you know, we believe that there
24:49
Speaker 12: is momentum for change and we would work with a
24:53
Speaker 12: coalition government, not in any formal sense, but we would
24:57
Speaker 12: work together to get rid.
24:58
Speaker 8: Of the Labor government.
24:59
Speaker 1: Well, it would have to be a formal sense, otherwise
25:02
Speaker 1: you wouldn't be in the government.
25:03
Speaker 2: Well, confidence and supply.
25:07
Speaker 1: Well, I think if you're sitting on 24 to 30 seats,
25:10
Speaker 1: it would have to be more than that. Adam, what
25:12
Speaker 1: were you going to say?
25:14
Speaker 13: Oh, just that I think, well, at least in Victoria,
25:16
Speaker 13: I think One Nation, as far as I understand it,
25:18
Speaker 13: they don't want to actually be ministers. They just want
25:20
Speaker 13: to have the balance of power because they're a new party.
25:23
Speaker 13: They need to learn how to govern. And, you know,
25:26
Speaker 13: I think there's a lot to be said for that.
25:28
Speaker 13: I mean, I think if there was a One Nation government,
25:30
Speaker 13: I mean, some people would say that that would be
25:32
Speaker 13: a disaster. That's apparently what federal Labor wants to happen.
25:36
Speaker 13: So I think there are some wiser heads that say
25:39
Speaker 13: that should not happen and just win a lot of seats,
25:41
Speaker 13: learn how to govern, and then the federal election is
25:44
Speaker 13: the big prize.
25:46
Speaker 1: Mike, Adams just said that if there was a one-nation government,
25:49
Speaker 1: it would be a disaster. No, could be, not would be.
25:53
Speaker 13: Very clear difference.
25:55
Speaker 12: I'll take my invoice back for your early comments there, mate. Look,
25:59
Speaker 12: to be honest, look, the way we look at that
26:01
Speaker 12: is often say that, you know, one nation is criticized
26:03
Speaker 12: for never having run government before. And that is absolutely true. However,
26:08
Speaker 12: we've had incumbent governments who are running this economy into
26:12
Speaker 12: the ground because many of these people have never, ever
26:14
Speaker 12: worked in business. And this is why we're seeing so
26:18
Speaker 12: much disaffected voters out there, especially amongst businesses, because we
26:23
Speaker 12: will be bringing business acumen to government, which I think
26:26
Speaker 12: is well overdue. And I think people have a first
26:29
Speaker 12: for change for those people. I mean, Millay in Argentina,
26:33
Speaker 12: he hadn't had a political background, but he has turned
26:36
Speaker 12: Argentina around by having very sensible economic policies.
26:41
Speaker 1: And, Adam, of course, you've been on the show previously
26:44
Speaker 1: speaking about Argentina and you went there.
26:46
Speaker 13: Indeed I have, yeah.
26:47
Speaker 1: Yeah. All right, let's move on. There have been growing
26:49
Speaker 1: calls among some economic experts and the Grattan Institute and
26:53
Speaker 1: Josh Frydenberg to actually lift the GST rate and then
26:57
Speaker 1: have personal income tax cuts. reduce the amount of personal
27:01
Speaker 1: income that people are paying. Now, Adam, you've interviewed former
27:05
Speaker 1: Treasurer Peter Costello. He's intervened in this debate and he
27:09
Speaker 1: says the GST should be left as it is. Let's
27:11
Speaker 1: have a look.
27:12
Speaker 3: Take it from me. I know a lot about the GST.
27:16
Speaker 3: It is not a reform that will make Australia more competitive.
27:19
Speaker 2: It is a bad idea.
27:20
Speaker 3: Are they going to abolish some other taxes in return?
27:23
Speaker 12: Never hear that.
27:25
Speaker 3: Are they going to cut income tax? Well, sometimes they say, oh, look,
27:28
Speaker 3: we could look at cutting income tax. But the problem
27:32
Speaker 3: with that is with bracket creep, the income tax cuts
27:36
Speaker 3: will just disappear.
27:38
Speaker 1: Adam, what do you think? Do you agree with him
27:41
Speaker 1: or do you think it is fair?
27:42
Speaker 2: Certainly.
27:44
Speaker 13: No, I certainly agree. I mean, consumption taxes generally are
27:47
Speaker 13: a very insidious tax because people don't realise that they're
27:50
Speaker 13: paying them. So they're very easy to increase. You increase
27:53
Speaker 13: it to 10, 11, 12, and no one really knows
27:56
Speaker 13: the tax has gone up. Much harder to increase income tax,
27:59
Speaker 13: for instance, because people obviously get a knock on their
28:02
Speaker 13: take-home pay. Look, it's, you know, it's an insidious tax.
28:05
Speaker 13: And I think that, you know, it's not the problem.
28:07
Speaker 13: It's not the number one problem Australia faces. You know,
28:09
Speaker 13: we have a spending crisis, not a tax mix crisis. Sure,
28:13
Speaker 13: you know, if I was dictator for a day, I'd
28:15
Speaker 13: change the tax arrangements. But, you know, we just have
28:18
Speaker 13: to cut spending.
28:19
Speaker 8: That's what we have to do.
28:20
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, you'd do that. You agree with indexing tax thresholds.
28:25
Speaker 1: That's a Liberal Party policy.
28:26
Speaker 13: Oh, absolutely. But that should have happened 20 years ago.
28:29
Speaker 1: Mike, do you think the GST should be raised and
28:31
Speaker 1: personal income tax rates reduced?
28:33
Speaker 14: A little bit.
28:34
Speaker 2: Well, look at this way.
28:34
Speaker 12: It's a federal issue, so not much I can do
28:36
Speaker 12: from a New South Wales perspective, but I'm for cutting
28:39
Speaker 12: taxes wherever possible. That was something Milton Friedman liked to
28:42
Speaker 12: talk about, that using any excuse to cut taxes to
28:45
Speaker 12: get the economy driving. Because it's a great example in Poland.
28:49
Speaker 12: They had a company tax at 40% and 19% for
28:53
Speaker 12: the lower threshold. But what happened was they realised the
28:55
Speaker 12: people in the 40% bracket just weren't paying tax. So
28:58
Speaker 12: they cut it to a flat rate 19 and tax
29:00
Speaker 12: revenues doubled because people just felt there was a great
29:03
Speaker 12: incentive that they could keep the 81%. So we've got
29:06
Speaker 12: to look at tax in a holistic sense of making
29:08
Speaker 12: sure that we can grow the tax pool but do
29:14
Speaker 12: it in a sensible way, which is driven by economic growth,
29:16
Speaker 12: not by just raising taxes. And that's what we've got here.
29:19
Speaker 12: It's just tax, tax, tax, spend, spend, spend. And I
29:22
Speaker 12: think there's a point to make that the velocity of money,
29:25
Speaker 12: which is we spend a dollar, we're getting like 70
29:28
Speaker 12: cents back from every dollar that the government prints and spends.
29:31
Speaker 7: Yeah.
29:31
Speaker 12: So that's pretty terrible versus what, 1.4, 1.5 elsewhere.
29:34
Speaker 1: So just to clarify, when you're talking about growing the
29:37
Speaker 1: tax base, I mean, how would.
29:39
Speaker 2: You do that?
29:40
Speaker 1: Oh, no.
29:40
Speaker 12: So what I'm saying is that if you just increase
29:42
Speaker 12: general economic activity, you'll increase the tax receipts, but you
29:46
Speaker 12: don't have to do it necessarily by raising tax rates.
29:49
Speaker 12: You can cut tax rates and drive higher tax revenue.
29:53
Speaker 1: All right. Mike Newman, Adam Crichton, thank you both very much.
29:56
Speaker 2: Thanks, Shari.
29:57
Speaker 4: Thanks, Shari.
29:58
Speaker 1: Later in the program, will Isaac Herzog invite Netanyahu to
30:02
Speaker 1: try former government? We'll cross live to Israel for the
30:04
Speaker 1: latest and more embarrassing performances from government ministers and boffins
30:10
Speaker 1: at Senate Estimates. That's after the break. Thanks for tuning in. Well,
30:17
Speaker 1: the Albanese government refused to rule out boycotting Israeli technology
30:22
Speaker 1: in Senate estimates today. James Patterson repeatedly asked for reassurances
30:27
Speaker 1: that defence would provide ADF the best equipment for Australia's
30:30
Speaker 1: first ballistic missile shield, even if it meant it was
30:33
Speaker 1: from Israel. Have a look.
30:36
Speaker 8: Can you reassure me that.
30:39
Speaker 10: If the best capability happens to be derived from Israeli technology,
30:43
Speaker 10: that that won't be a barrier to deploying it for
30:45
Speaker 10: the ADF.
30:45
Speaker 15: So we can't give you any kind of absolutes around
30:49
Speaker 15: government decision-making, Senator?
30:51
Speaker 10: If it is the best capability, that it won't be
30:55
Speaker 10: discriminated against or banned just because it's Israeli origin.
30:59
Speaker 5: You provide the best available information based on the parameters
31:02
Speaker 5: that we've asked to provide that advice on.
31:04
Speaker 8: That's not instilling me with confidence. I cannot give you
31:06
Speaker 8: an absolute about a hypothetical in future.
31:10
Speaker 1: And then finally, Minister Mari Watt, who is representing Richard Miles,
31:14
Speaker 1: the Defence Minister, he gave this ambiguous response.
31:18
Speaker 16: We will always seek to deliver the most suitable technology available.
31:22
Speaker 8: So if it happens to be Israeli origin, it won't
31:24
Speaker 8: be excluded for that reason? If there's anything I can
31:27
Speaker 8: add to what I've said, I'll add that.
31:29
Speaker 12: OK.
31:30
Speaker 8: I'm not sure that will instil confidence in people bidding
31:33
Speaker 8: this process.
31:35
Speaker 1: I mean, why can't he just give a straight answer? Well,
31:38
Speaker 1: joining me now, Shadow Home Affairs Minister Jono Dunham. Jono,
31:41
Speaker 1: if Israeli tech does prove to be the best, I mean,
31:45
Speaker 1: why can't the government just say, of course we'll take it?
31:48
Speaker 14: We should be blind, Shari, to where the technology comes from, except,
31:53
Speaker 14: of course, in the case of perhaps an adversary, which
31:56
Speaker 14: Israel is not. The fact that the Minister and the
32:00
Speaker 14: Secretary could not say that if the best tech comes
32:03
Speaker 14: from Israel, we will buy it, just frankly baffles me.
32:08
Speaker 14: And I have to give credit to James. He is
32:09
Speaker 14: like a hound at a rabbit burrow. He will sniff
32:13
Speaker 14: out these things and chase them to the nth degree.
32:15
Speaker 14: But honestly, Israel is renowned for its defence tech. They
32:20
Speaker 14: have had to defend themselves against onslaughts for a very
32:24
Speaker 14: long time now. We would do well to purchase technology
32:27
Speaker 14: from a country like that. But share our values, need
32:31
Speaker 14: I say, but the idea that a minister could not say, well,
32:34
Speaker 14: we are making decisions blind on where they come from,
32:37
Speaker 14: provided they come from a like-minded nation, which.
32:40
Speaker 8: Israel is, just baffles me.
32:42
Speaker 14: It's a bad sign that this government has not learnt
32:45
Speaker 14: anything since Bondi.
32:47
Speaker 1: They're giving in to the left and the issue is that,
32:50
Speaker 1: you know, if they say, OK, we're not going to
32:51
Speaker 1: have any military technology from Israel, well, of course the
32:55
Speaker 1: left will just move on and say that it should
32:56
Speaker 1: be banned from America as well. That's clearly the next step.
33:01
Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly right.
33:03
Speaker 14: Every time you appease this mob, they move the goalposts
33:06
Speaker 14: further and further and further away. So this is exactly right.
33:10
Speaker 14: They will never be satisfied. And I'm not actually sure
33:12
Speaker 14: what their end goal is other than perhaps the complete
33:15
Speaker 14: deconstruction of Western civilisation. But honestly, the idea that you
33:20
Speaker 14: couldn't just put a stake in the ground, and this
33:22
Speaker 14: government does need to start demonstrating to Australian voters that
33:26
Speaker 14: they actually do have our country's interests and At heart,
33:30
Speaker 14: that if it means siding with Israel to annoy, you know,
33:34
Speaker 14: it may annoy a couple of the pro-Palestinian lobby groups, well,
33:38
Speaker 14: then so be it. But the fact that they can't
33:41
Speaker 14: do that, as I say, is a very alarming development
33:43
Speaker 14: of it. Not 12 months ago did we have those
33:46
Speaker 14: terrible events in Bondi and, you know, you've got a
33:49
Speaker 14: government saying, oh, we're a bit nervous about backing companies
33:52
Speaker 14: that come from Israel is not a good sign for us.
33:55
Speaker 14: And I say they need to wake up and actually
33:57
Speaker 14: change course on this stuff.
34:00
Speaker 1: Last night I played clips of James Patterson interrogating Penny
34:03
Speaker 1: Wong over the preconditions for Palestinian statehood. Now, Wong admitted
34:08
Speaker 1: that basically nothing would make Labor think twice about recognising
34:12
Speaker 1: a Palestinian state. Just to recap, here was that clip.
34:16
Speaker 10: Are there any circumstances under which the government will revoke
34:19
Speaker 10: the recognition of Palestinian statehood?
34:22
Speaker 2: No, we have recognised it, say, to Palestine.
34:24
Speaker 8: Well, it's not a precondition then, is it?
34:26
Speaker 3: Well... We have recognised the state of Palestine and that
34:29
Speaker 3: is a contribution to peace in the Middle East because
34:31
Speaker 3: there is no peace.
34:34
Speaker 1: So, Jono, having Hamas demilitarise, having the Palestinian Authority hold elections, governance,
34:41
Speaker 1: et cetera, it doesn't seem like these were preconditions at all.
34:46
Speaker 14: No, it's all window dressing, Shari. I mean, the idea
34:49
Speaker 14: that somehow we're going to do the right thing by
34:51
Speaker 14: this community and this is what a Western nation should
34:55
Speaker 14: be backing in, except when those conditions aren't met, we're
34:58
Speaker 14: just going to proceed headlong into this anyway, is madness.
35:02
Speaker 14: Israel is the only democratic nation in that region. Israel
35:05
Speaker 14: is a shining beacon of hope for what we as
35:09
Speaker 14: a civilised nation should be looking to foster.
35:11
Speaker 8: In other parts of the world.
35:13
Speaker 14: And the fact that we can't back them in and
35:14
Speaker 14: then cannot admit This government cannot admit when it gets
35:18
Speaker 14: it wrong with this approach is astounding. I saw other
35:22
Speaker 14: parts of their exchange last night, and again, the dogged
35:26
Speaker 14: approach that this government take to backing in Palestine at
35:30
Speaker 14: any cost, I think, again, spells disaster. We have confronted
35:35
Speaker 14: anti-Semitism in this country, yet this government seems to be
35:38
Speaker 14: a bit slow on the uptake. They should be absolutely
35:42
Speaker 14: abandoning course here and finding a way to actually back
35:45
Speaker 14: in countries like us that respect the rule of law
35:48
Speaker 14: and democracy like Israel.
35:50
Speaker 1: On another topic, a federal court judge has placed a
35:53
Speaker 1: self-declared ISIS commander and associate of the alleged Bondi gunman
35:58
Speaker 1: under a control order. But this was after Home Affairs
36:01
Speaker 1: chose not to apply in court for an extension to
36:04
Speaker 1: his jail sentence. Now, this is El Matari, due to
36:08
Speaker 1: be let loose on the streets in November after spending
36:12
Speaker 1: five years behind bars for multiple terror offences. But, Jono,
36:16
Speaker 1: it was the AFP who applied for the interim control order.
36:20
Speaker 1: which was granted, not Home Affairs?
36:24
Speaker 14: Yeah, so one has to wonder what is actually going
36:27
Speaker 14: on here. So you've got Home Affairs who manage the
36:30
Speaker 14: overall approach when it comes to intelligence, law enforcement and
36:34
Speaker 14: policy around our national security, yet they've done nothing to
36:39
Speaker 14: actually deal with a situation related to a an individual
36:43
Speaker 14: that is frankly a massive threat to safety and security
36:46
Speaker 14: in our community. So no answers have been given, no
36:51
Speaker 14: explanation as to why this is an appropriate course of action.
36:55
Speaker 14: And as a result, the Australian community are left with
36:59
Speaker 14: this individual potentially being able to circulate in our community.
37:04
Speaker 14: I mean, the whole idea is madness. And again, the
37:07
Speaker 14: lack of consistency when it comes to the approach that
37:12
Speaker 14: is taken to how we manage who is in our
37:14
Speaker 14: country for a start, but then who we boot out
37:17
Speaker 14: given what they do and what we direct the ART
37:20
Speaker 14: to do to get rid of people as required is
37:23
Speaker 14: something this government has failed on at every turn. I'm
37:27
Speaker 14: very concerned about this one as well, but, you know,
37:29
Speaker 14: at estimates yesterday, or the day before rather, very little
37:32
Speaker 14: in the way of solid answers and, again, more obfuscation.
37:35
Speaker 8: Than anything else.
37:37
Speaker 15: Yeah.
37:37
Speaker 1: Look, public safety should be the absolute priority. I mean,
37:41
Speaker 1: horrifying to think. John O'Donoghue, thank you very much for
37:45
Speaker 1: joining us.
37:47
Speaker 2: Thanks, Shari.
37:49
Speaker 1: All right, coming up, ASIC has launched an investigation into
37:51
Speaker 1: the firm's failure. We'll get to that. And we'll cross
37:54
Speaker 1: live to Israel to bring you the latest on the
37:56
Speaker 1: election results. Jonathan Conricus will join me after the break. Well,
38:03
Speaker 1: with 90% of Israel's vote counted, it's clear that Prime
38:07
Speaker 1: Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is ahead and will likely be invited
38:11
Speaker 1: by President Isaac Herzog to have a chance to form
38:13
Speaker 1: government in the next week. Now, combined with his coalition partners,
38:18
Speaker 1: Likud and the pro-Netanyahu bloc have won 53 seats. The
38:23
Speaker 1: opposition bloc, 48. Now, this is how it's going to
38:27
Speaker 1: play out. The Arab parties have secured at least 19 seats.
38:32
Speaker 1: They're being called potential kingmakers. With both right-wing parties promising
38:37
Speaker 1: not to work with them, the possibility of another election
38:40
Speaker 1: is something that Isaac Herzog is warning against.
38:45
Speaker 15: I will hear from each and every faction, ask questions
38:48
Speaker 15: and hold discussions. There is only one thing that must
38:50
Speaker 15: be understood, and I said this before the election. We
38:53
Speaker 15: must do everything possible, certainly after yesterday, not to return
38:57
Speaker 15: to another election. I expect everyone who comes here to
39:00
Speaker 15: come with an open mind.
39:04
Speaker 1: And for more now is former IDF spokesman Jonathan Conricus. Jonathan,
39:09
Speaker 1: good to see you again. Look, Herzog, in about a week,
39:12
Speaker 1: maybe less, do you expect he will invite Netanyahu first
39:16
Speaker 1: to try former government?
39:21
Speaker 2: Shalom, Shari.
39:22
Speaker 17: No, I don't think he will, even though that is
39:25
Speaker 17: a possibility, because I don't think that Netanyahu will receive
39:30
Speaker 17: a majority recommendation by the other parties to form government.
39:36
Speaker 17: And I think that there will be more parties that
39:38
Speaker 17: will recommend Eisenkot, specifically because the Arab parties probably will
39:45
Speaker 17: not recommend Netanyahu, and that would give Eisenkot an advantage.
39:50
Speaker 17: But it's kind of a Pyrrhic advantage because Eisenkot, I
39:54
Speaker 17: think the chances of him, as you said correctly, forming
39:58
Speaker 17: government with Arab parties who, not just because they're Arab,
40:03
Speaker 17: but specifically because one of the parties is really in
40:09
Speaker 17: opposition of Israel as a modern democratic Jewish majority state,
40:15
Speaker 17: and they actively try to undermine Israel. any Israeli politician
40:19
Speaker 17: would really struggle to form government with them. So even
40:22
Speaker 17: though Eisenkot probably will be recommended first, chances that he'll
40:26
Speaker 17: be able to form government aren't good.
40:28
Speaker 2: And maybe the.
40:29
Speaker 17: Only option that exists but for elections again in a
40:34
Speaker 17: few months would be a unity government where Eisenkot and
40:38
Speaker 17: Netanyahu form government together.
40:40
Speaker 1: Many Israelis would prefer that. Many people would like that.
40:45
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's correct.
40:46
Speaker 17: Many Israelis would rather spare us the trouble and the
40:49
Speaker 17: toxicity and all the nonsense of another round of elections
40:53
Speaker 17: and do some political concessions. Here, the problem is that
40:57
Speaker 17: the level of trust among Israelis and Israeli politicians towards
41:02
Speaker 17: Netanyahu is below zero. He has tricked and fooled every
41:07
Speaker 17: other politician, opponent, adversary into deals that he then violated.
41:13
Speaker 17: So The chances of Eisenkot, you know, willingly walking into
41:18
Speaker 17: that landmine, political minefield, I think are slim and would
41:23
Speaker 17: need to find some good solution for it. I hope
41:26
Speaker 17: for the sake of Israel and our stability that those
41:29
Speaker 17: solutions will be found.
41:31
Speaker 1: Netanyahu has accused some of the Arab parties of stealing
41:35
Speaker 1: the election. He's demanding an official investigation by the Electoral Commission.
41:40
Speaker 1: What's the substance of these claims?
41:45
Speaker 17: Yeah, I think there actually is some substance in terms
41:48
Speaker 17: of the tremendous turnout. And we have seen abnormal, abnormally high,
41:55
Speaker 17: as in 90% and above turnout in certain small Arab
42:01
Speaker 17: and Bedouin communities. So I think it's too early to
42:04
Speaker 17: make any definitive statements. But to me, it looks like
42:08
Speaker 17: there's room for investigation. especially in a few remote Bedouin
42:13
Speaker 17: and Arab communities. And there's allegations of fraud and basically
42:19
Speaker 17: payments being made in cash, cash envelopes to different communities
42:24
Speaker 17: in order to vote for the Ra'am party of Mansour
42:29
Speaker 17: Abbas and also for the United List. I wouldn't say
42:32
Speaker 17: that it's confirmed, but I think there's probably enough information
42:36
Speaker 17: that should trigger a serious investigation.
42:39
Speaker 1: I thought that was a really interesting analysis on the
42:42
Speaker 1: Times of Israel website that the Arab parties are a
42:45
Speaker 1: source of pride for Jews around the world, you know,
42:49
Speaker 1: to show that Israel is a genuine democracy. But the
42:52
Speaker 1: Arab parties are then a security risk for Israelis. Is
42:56
Speaker 1: that how you see it?
42:59
Speaker 17: Well, not only a security risk, but specifically the United List,
43:03
Speaker 17: which currently has 12 seats in the incoming parliament, incoming Knesset,
43:08
Speaker 17: they openly say that their supreme objective is to undo
43:12
Speaker 17: the state of Israel as the nation state of the
43:16
Speaker 17: Jewish people. They really act in contravention to the founding
43:21
Speaker 17: documents and the Declaration of Independence, and they want to
43:25
Speaker 17: change Israel from being the nation state, the one nation
43:28
Speaker 17: state of the Jewish people, to a country where Arabs
43:33
Speaker 17: and Muslims have the same rights same precedence in politics
43:40
Speaker 17: and where the national colors and all of the other
43:45
Speaker 17: symbols of government would be Arab or Muslim. And they
43:49
Speaker 17: say that openly. And of course, that is in strong
43:52
Speaker 17: violation of what Israel was founded for and what Israel is.
43:56
Speaker 17: Israel is the only country in the world that is
43:58
Speaker 17: the nation state of the Jewish people. While it is
44:02
Speaker 17: a democracy and while Arabs have full legal rights, and
44:06
Speaker 17: civil rights, unlike anywhere else in the Middle East, I
44:09
Speaker 17: should add. And, you know, I just was on a
44:13
Speaker 17: debate yesterday where I found myself defending Israeli democracy and
44:17
Speaker 17: the people who were piling on insults on Israel. They
44:20
Speaker 17: didn't seem concerned about the fact that Arabs in Judea
44:24
Speaker 17: and Samaria haven't voted in 23 years and those in
44:27
Speaker 17: Gaza haven't voted in 18 years.
44:29
Speaker 1: Such a good point. All right. Jonathan Conricus, thank you
44:32
Speaker 1: very much. Still to come, ASIC launches an investigation into
44:36
Speaker 1: the firm's failure, plus what Australia could learn as France
44:41
Speaker 1: plunges into economic peril. That's after the break. ASIC is
44:48
Speaker 1: now investigating Firmus after its $ 44 billion bid to go
44:52
Speaker 1: public on the Australian Stock Exchange failed. The Oz broke
44:56
Speaker 1: this story today. Look, this would have been the largest
44:59
Speaker 1: ASX float since Telstra in 97. And to explain further
45:03
Speaker 1: is Pangana Capital Group Chief Executive Officer Russell Pillimer. Russell,
45:08
Speaker 1: great to see you.
45:09
Speaker 16: Great to be here.
45:10
Speaker 1: So how serious is this investigation by the ASX?
45:13
Speaker 16: Look, I think, Sherry, what happened here is largely no
45:19
Speaker 16: different to what happens in most IPOs. And that is
45:22
Speaker 16: that the brokers drum up demand by using FOMO, fear
45:26
Speaker 16: of missing out. So they go around and say to investors,
45:29
Speaker 16: this is a very keenly sought-after IPO and get in
45:32
Speaker 16: now while you can because otherwise you might miss out. Now,
45:35
Speaker 16: there's usually no harm done. And the reason for that
45:38
Speaker 16: is that if they're right... and the book is fully subscribed,
45:42
Speaker 16: then investors will invest and they will have been right.
45:45
Speaker 16: If they're wrong and the book isn't fully subscribed, then
45:48
Speaker 16: the deal won't happen. And that's what happened here. The
45:51
Speaker 16: deal never happened, so nobody actually really lost out. Now,
45:54
Speaker 16: what ASIC might do is they might look for particular
45:58
Speaker 16: statements by various brokers that were outrageous and were blatantly wrong,
46:02
Speaker 16: and they might go after that. But at the end
46:05
Speaker 16: of the day, because nobody lost any money, I doubt
46:08
Speaker 16: that there'll be serious ramifications from this.
46:11
Speaker 1: So the watchdog's chair, Sarah Court, is saying ASIC is
46:15
Speaker 1: aware of questions raised about whether the information provided to
46:19
Speaker 1: institutional and wholesale investors was accurate. So it seems like
46:25
Speaker 1: there's a possibility, or at least they're investigating whether there
46:29
Speaker 1: was misleading information information given to investors.
46:32
Speaker 15: Yes.
46:33
Speaker 16: And that misleading information would have been about the extent
46:37
Speaker 16: of demand for the book. So how many times oversubscribed
46:40
Speaker 16: was it? So the deal will get away if it's
46:43
Speaker 16: fully subscribed and there's enough investors to satisfy demand. But
46:47
Speaker 16: you always like to see a lot more demand than
46:49
Speaker 16: just the basic 100% demand, because that means in the aftermarket,
46:54
Speaker 16: there'll be additional demand and the price should go up.
46:57
Speaker 16: So they're going to be looking at those types of statements.
47:00
Speaker 1: All right. Turning to France now, and, I mean, we've
47:03
Speaker 1: been talking about France, obviously, because of the riots, but
47:06
Speaker 1: it's also having an economic crisis, much like Australia, struggling
47:10
Speaker 1: with high public debt, stagnant economy, you know, this dire
47:14
Speaker 1: fiscal situation. We can have a look at this graph
47:18
Speaker 1: from the IMF, which shows that debt has risen to
47:22
Speaker 1: nearly 120% as a share of GDP. So, I mean, how...
47:27
Speaker 1: Is this all linked, Russell?
47:30
Speaker 16: So France has for many years now and through successive
47:34
Speaker 16: governments been embarking on a socialist type agenda, so a
47:38
Speaker 16: social welfare type state. And these types of economic models
47:43
Speaker 16: are destined to fail. We see that time and time
47:45
Speaker 16: again in history. And France is just another example of that.
47:48
Speaker 16: So in the French situation, they tax the population massively
47:54
Speaker 16: and the government collects that money and the government spends
47:56
Speaker 16: that money on behalf of the population. The government has
48:00
Speaker 16: consistently over-promised and under-delivered. Governments do not know how to
48:04
Speaker 16: spend money properly. And the great example of this is
48:07
Speaker 16: that in these initial riots, it was the students who
48:11
Speaker 16: were rioting because they are not getting the right level
48:14
Speaker 16: of education or... right classrooms etc but meanwhile France spends
48:20
Speaker 16: an absolute ton of money in supporting students students don't
48:24
Speaker 16: pay for their education in France or pay very little
48:27
Speaker 16: and so you can see that this mismatch between what
48:30
Speaker 16: they promise and what they deliver is at the root
48:33
Speaker 16: of you know a lot of the I guess the
48:36
Speaker 16: angry reaction in the country.
48:38
Speaker 1: Yeah, and you can obviously see parallels here with the
48:41
Speaker 1: Albanese government pursuing a similar but not as severe socialist agenda.
48:45
Speaker 1: We've only got a minute and a half left, and
48:47
Speaker 1: I wanted to get your thoughts on Anthropic because they've
48:49
Speaker 1: released their prospectus ahead of their up to a couple
48:53
Speaker 1: of trillion dollar float next month.
48:56
Speaker 16: Yeah, so Anthropic came out, yeah, an IPO. It should
49:01
Speaker 16: be in the middle of the month. It could be
49:05
Speaker 16: up to $ 2 trillion, and that really is supported by
49:09
Speaker 16: the massive growth of the business. What was particularly interesting
49:12
Speaker 16: about the anthropic prospectus was it contained some risks that
49:16
Speaker 16: were quite outrageous, and these risks were things like this.
49:20
Speaker 16: is going to be potentially the end of humanity or
49:23
Speaker 16: existential threats to humanity. Or you have to worry about
49:27
Speaker 16: its models going rogue and blackmailing people. You have to
49:32
Speaker 16: worry about these models not being able to be switched off.
49:34
Speaker 16: There's no off switch. Now, I think people shouldn't panic
49:37
Speaker 16: too much because risks in a prospectus are not predictions.
49:42
Speaker 16: They're just a way that directors cover themselves when they
49:46
Speaker 16: issue a report. And it's been great for the marketing
49:51
Speaker 16: of Anthropic because everybody knows about Anthropic. And who wouldn't
49:54
Speaker 16: want to invest in a company that has the potential
49:58
Speaker 16: to be the end of humanity? Something that powerful, you
50:01
Speaker 16: have to have a chance to invest in that.
50:03
Speaker 1: I don't know about that. That sounds terrible. I don't
50:05
Speaker 1: want any part in the end of humanity. Leave me
50:07
Speaker 1: out of it. Thank you so much, Russell. I really
50:10
Speaker 1: appreciate it.
50:11
Speaker 12: Thanks.
50:12
Speaker 1: All right, and thanks, everyone, for your company this week.
50:15
Speaker 1: Hope you have a great weekend. Right now, here's Paul Murray.