Latest / STRAT / STRAT | Week of November 25, 2024 | Revolutionizing Warfare: The Future of Drones and AI on the Battlefield

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STRAT | Week of November 25, 2024 | Revolutionizing Warfare: The Future of Drones and AI on the Battlefield · STRAT

• 0:06
  From
• 0:06
  the
• 0:06
  Mutual
• 0:07
  Broadcasting
• 0:08
  System,
• 0:08
  this
• 0:09
  is
• 0:10
  STRAT
• 0:10
  Strategic
• 0:11
  Risk
• 0:11
  Assessment
• 0:12
  Talk.
• 0:13
  Now,
• 0:14
  retired
• 0:14
  Marine
• 0:15
  intelligence
• 0:15
  officer
• 0:16
  and
• 0:16
  globally
• 0:17
  recognized
• 0:17
  risk
• 0:18
  expert
• 0:18
  Hal
• 0:18
  Kaemfer.
• 0:29
  All
• 0:30
  right,
• 0:30
  welcome
• 0:31
  back
• 0:31
  to
• 0:31
  strat.
• 0:31
  That
• 0:32
  we've
• 0:32
  got
• 0:32
  a
• 0:33
  lot
• 0:33
  of,
• 0:34
  I
• 0:34
  think
• 0:34
  that
• 0:34
  famous
• 0:35
  saying
• 0:36
  that
• 0:36
  was
• 0:36
  attributed
• 0:37
  to
• 0:37
  George
• 0:38
  Bush
• 0:38
  that
• 0:38
  he'd
• 0:38
  actually
• 0:39
  say,
• 0:39
  but
• 0:39
  I
• 0:40
  think
• 0:40
  Wal
• 0:40
  Ferrell
• 0:40
  said
• 0:40
  it
• 0:41
  was
• 0:41
  strategery.
• 0:42
  And
• 0:42
  we're
• 0:43
  going
• 0:43
  to
• 0:43
  talk
• 0:43
  about
• 0:43
  some
• 0:43
  law
• 0:44
  strategic
• 0:45
  assessment
• 0:46
  going
• 0:46
  around
• 0:46
  the
• 0:47
  world
• 0:47
  and
• 0:47
  I'm
• 0:47
  going
• 0:47
  to
• 0:48
  focus
• 0:48
  on
• 0:48
  a
• 0:48
  few
• 0:49
  things
• 0:49
  in
• 0:49
  particular.
• 0:49
  But
• 0:50
  I'm
• 0:50
  going
• 0:50
  to
• 0:50
  start
• 0:50
  out
• 0:50
  by
• 0:51
  talking
• 0:51
  about
• 0:51
  Ukraine's
• 0:53
  strategic
• 0:54
  challenge,
• 0:55
  if
• 0:55
  you
• 0:55
  will.
• 0:55
  And
• 0:55
  there
• 0:56
  were
• 0:56
  some
• 0:56
  big
• 0:56
  things
• 0:57
  that
• 0:57
  happened,
• 0:57
  some
• 0:58
  big
• 0:58
  changes.
• 0:59
  Obviously
• 1:00
  one
• 1:00
  of
• 1:00
  the
• 1:00
  biggest
• 1:01
  changes
• 1:01
  we
• 1:01
  were
• 1:01
  waiting
• 1:02
  for
• 1:02
  for
• 1:02
  a
• 1:02
  long
• 1:02
  time
• 1:03
  was
• 1:04
  that
• 1:05
  the
• 1:05
  U.S.
• 1:06
  finally,
• 1:07
  the
• 1:07
  Biden
• 1:08
  White
• 1:08
  House
• 1:08
  finally
• 1:10
  made
• 1:10
  the
• 1:10
  decision
• 1:11
  to
• 1:11
  allow
• 1:11
  those
• 1:12
  longer
• 1:12
  range
• 1:13
  weapons
• 1:14
  that
• 1:14
  we
• 1:14
  have,
• 1:15
  the
• 1:15
  atacms,
• 1:16
  the
• 1:16
  ATACMS
• 1:17
  missiles,
• 1:17
  those
• 1:18
  army,
• 1:19
  you
• 1:19
  know,
• 1:19
  those
• 1:20
  advanced
• 1:20
  tactical
• 1:21
  missiles
• 1:22
  that
• 1:22
  the
• 1:22
  army
• 1:23
  has
• 1:23
  that
• 1:23
  they
• 1:23
  use
• 1:24
  that
• 1:24
  can
• 1:24
  go
• 1:24
  out
• 1:25
  95,
• 1:26
  almost
• 1:26
  200
• 1:27
  miles,
• 1:28
  allowed
• 1:28
  the
• 1:28
  Ukrainians
• 1:29
  to
• 1:29
  use
• 1:29
  that
• 1:29
  on
• 1:29
  Russian
• 1:30
  territory.
• 1:31
  That's
• 1:31
  about
• 1:31
  300
• 1:32
  kilometers.
• 1:32
  Ironically,
• 1:33
  when
• 1:33
  they
• 1:33
  made
• 1:34
  that,
• 1:35
  made
• 1:35
  that
• 1:37
  change
• 1:37
  of
• 1:38
  policy,
• 1:38
  they
• 1:38
  also
• 1:39
  said,
• 1:39
  and
• 1:39
  we're
• 1:40
  limiting
• 1:40
  it
• 1:40
  to
• 1:40
  300km,
• 1:41
  which
• 1:42
  I
• 1:42
  could
• 1:42
  have
• 1:42
  had
• 1:42
  to
• 1:42
  smile.
• 1:43
  Well,
• 1:43
  that
• 1:43
  is
• 1:43
  the
• 1:43
  max
• 1:44
  range
• 1:44
  of
• 1:44
  the
• 1:44
  weapon.
• 1:44
  So
• 1:45
  yeah,
• 1:46
  that
• 1:46
  makes
• 1:47
  sense.
• 1:47
  The
• 1:47
  other
• 1:48
  thing
• 1:48
  it
• 1:48
  did
• 1:48
  that
• 1:49
  we
• 1:49
  found
• 1:49
  out
• 1:49
  about
• 1:49
  a
• 1:50
  day
• 1:50
  or
• 1:50
  two
• 1:50
  later
• 1:50
  was
• 1:50
  it
• 1:51
  also
• 1:52
  was
• 1:52
  a
• 1:52
  green
• 1:53
  light
• 1:53
  to
• 1:53
  the
• 1:53
  British
• 1:54
  and
• 1:54
  the
• 1:54
  French
• 1:54
  with
• 1:55
  their
• 1:55
  Scalp
• 1:55
  and
• 1:56
  Storm
• 1:56
  Shadow
• 1:57
  cruise
• 1:57
  missiles
• 1:58
  that
• 1:58
  they
• 1:59
  could
• 1:59
  use
• 1:59
  those
• 2:00
  as
• 2:00
  well.
• 2:00
  And
• 2:00
  since
• 2:01
  those
• 2:01
  missiles
• 2:01
  incorporate
• 2:02
  US
• 2:02
  Technology,
• 2:03
  proprietary
• 2:04
  US
• 2:04
  Technology,
• 2:05
  they
• 2:05
  were
• 2:06
  deferring
• 2:06
  to
• 2:06
  the
• 2:06
  United
• 2:07
  States
• 2:07
  to
• 2:07
  change
• 2:07
  its
• 2:08
  policy
• 2:08
  before
• 2:09
  they
• 2:10
  were
• 2:10
  being
• 2:11
  used.
• 2:11
  And
• 2:11
  they
• 2:11
  were
• 2:11
  used
• 2:12
  immediately
• 2:13
  to
• 2:13
  great
• 2:13
  effect.
• 2:14
  The
• 2:17
  Ukrainians
• 2:17
  used
• 2:18
  a
• 2:18
  taco
• 2:19
  missiles
• 2:19
  to
• 2:19
  hit
• 2:19
  an
• 2:20
  army
• 2:20
  depot
• 2:21
  which
• 2:21
  reportedly
• 2:22
  caused
• 2:23
  devastating
• 2:24
  damage
• 2:25
  to
• 2:25
  that
• 2:25
  depot,
• 2:27
  causing
• 2:27
  some
• 2:27
  significant
• 2:28
  losses
• 2:29
  of
• 2:29
  what
• 2:30
  Russians
• 2:30
  would
• 2:30
  consider
• 2:31
  critically
• 2:31
  needed
• 2:31
  ammunition
• 2:33
  for
• 2:33
  their
• 2:34
  battles
• 2:34
  up
• 2:35
  north,
• 2:35
  particularly
• 2:35
  in
• 2:36
  Kursk.
• 2:37
  And
• 2:37
  then
• 2:37
  the
• 2:38
  Storm
• 2:38
  Shadow
• 2:38
  missiles
• 2:39
  were
• 2:39
  used
• 2:40
  on
• 2:41
  what
• 2:41
  was
• 2:41
  kind
• 2:42
  of,
• 2:42
  it
• 2:42
  sounded
• 2:42
  like
• 2:42
  on
• 2:43
  a
• 2:43
  command
• 2:43
  post
• 2:44
  and
• 2:44
  a
• 2:44
  big
• 2:44
  command
• 2:45
  post.
• 2:45
  And
• 2:46
  right
• 2:46
  after
• 2:47
  that
• 2:47
  there
• 2:47
  was
• 2:48
  a
• 2:48
  report
• 2:48
  that
• 2:49
  the
• 2:50
  senior,
• 2:51
  a
• 2:51
  senior
• 2:52
  or
• 2:52
  the
• 2:53
  senior
• 2:54
  North
• 2:54
  Korean
• 2:55
  general
• 2:55
  that
• 2:56
  was
• 2:56
  assigned
• 2:56
  with
• 2:56
  those
• 2:57
  North
• 2:57
  Korean
• 2:57
  forces
• 2:58
  have
• 2:59
  been
• 2:59
  injured,
• 3:00
  seriously
• 3:00
  injured.
• 3:01
  And
• 3:01
  frankly,
• 3:02
  a
• 3:02
  lot
• 3:02
  of
• 3:02
  times
• 3:03
  when
• 3:03
  they
• 3:03
  say
• 3:03
  they
• 3:03
  may
• 3:04
  have
• 3:04
  been
• 3:04
  injured
• 3:04
  or
• 3:04
  seriously
• 3:05
  injured,
• 3:05
  that's
• 3:06
  kind
• 3:06
  of
• 3:06
  code
• 3:07
  talk
• 3:07
  where
• 3:07
  they
• 3:07
  may
• 3:08
  be
• 3:08
  dead,
• 3:08
  but
• 3:08
  they
• 3:08
  don't
• 3:09
  want
• 3:09
  to
• 3:09
  admit
• 3:09
  that
• 3:09
  they
• 3:09
  were
• 3:10
  killed
• 3:10
  in
• 3:10
  the
• 3:10
  attack.
• 3:11
  We'll
• 3:11
  find
• 3:11
  out
• 3:12
  just
• 3:12
  how
• 3:12
  badly
• 3:13
  this
• 3:14
  general
• 3:14
  was
• 3:15
  hurt.
• 3:15
  But
• 3:16
  if
• 3:16
  they
• 3:16
  hit
• 3:17
  the
• 3:17
  senior
• 3:17
  North
• 3:18
  Korean
• 3:18
  general,
• 3:19
  you
• 3:19
  can
• 3:19
  be
• 3:20
  assured
• 3:20
  that
• 3:20
  there
• 3:20
  were
• 3:21
  probably
• 3:21
  a
• 3:21
  lot
• 3:22
  of
• 3:22
  senior
• 3:22
  Russian
• 3:23
  officers,
• 3:23
  potentially
• 3:24
  Russian
• 3:24
  generals
• 3:25
  that
• 3:25
  were
• 3:25
  in
• 3:25
  close
• 3:26
  proximity
• 3:26
  to
• 3:26
  wherever
• 3:27
  he
• 3:27
  was.
• 3:28
  So
• 3:29
  both
• 3:29
  of
• 3:29
  these
• 3:29
  things
• 3:29
  had
• 3:30
  immediate
• 3:30
  effect.
• 3:30
  And
• 3:31
  you
• 3:31
  did
• 3:31
  see
• 3:31
  an
• 3:32
  immediate
• 3:32
  effect
• 3:33
  with
• 3:33
  Russia.
• 3:34
  Okay,
• 3:35
  Russia
• 3:35
  turned
• 3:36
  right
• 3:36
  around
• 3:36
  and
• 3:36
  they
• 3:37
  launched
• 3:37
  the
• 3:38
  thing.
• 3:38
  This,
• 3:38
  they,
• 3:39
  you
• 3:39
  know,
• 3:39
  initially
• 3:40
  the
• 3:40
  result
• 3:40
  reports
• 3:41
  came
• 3:41
  out
• 3:41
  that
• 3:41
  this
• 3:41
  was
• 3:42
  an
• 3:42
  ICBM
• 3:43
  intercontinental
• 3:44
  ballistic
• 3:44
  missile.
• 3:45
  Well,
• 3:45
  that
• 3:45
  is
• 3:46
  certainly
• 3:46
  not
• 3:47
  needed.
• 3:47
  Still
• 3:47
  a
• 3:48
  significant
• 3:48
  ballistic
• 3:48
  missile
• 3:49
  that
• 3:49
  they
• 3:49
  had
• 3:50
  modified.
• 3:51
  So
• 3:51
  they,
• 3:52
  they
• 3:52
  have
• 3:52
  a
• 3:53
  faster
• 3:53
  burning
• 3:54
  rocket,
• 3:55
  if
• 3:55
  you
• 3:55
  will,
• 3:55
  that
• 3:55
  gives
• 3:56
  them
• 3:56
  more
• 3:56
  speed.
• 3:57
  Hence
• 3:57
  they
• 3:57
  keep
• 3:58
  calling
• 3:58
  it
• 3:58
  hypersonic,
• 3:59
  which
• 3:59
  I
• 3:59
  always
• 4:00
  find
• 4:00
  with
• 4:01
  ballistic
• 4:01
  missiles
• 4:02
  of
• 4:02
  this
• 4:02
  type.
• 4:02
  Isn't
• 4:03
  that
• 4:03
  kind
• 4:03
  of
• 4:03
  a
• 4:04
  wasted
• 4:04
  phrase?
• 4:05
  Because
• 4:05
  they
• 4:05
  all
• 4:06
  travel
• 4:06
  speeds
• 4:07
  that
• 4:07
  one
• 4:07
  could
• 4:07
  call
• 4:08
  hypersonic.
• 4:08
  But
• 4:09
  anyway,
• 4:09
  but
• 4:09
  it
• 4:09
  was
• 4:10
  called
• 4:10
  hypersonic
• 4:11
  and
• 4:11
  they
• 4:11
  use
• 4:11
  that
• 4:12
  to
• 4:12
  attack
• 4:12
  Deep
• 4:12
  Rope
• 4:13
  in
• 4:13
  Ukraine.
• 4:15
  And
• 4:15
  they
• 4:15
  also,
• 4:16
  this
• 4:16
  missile
• 4:17
  looks
• 4:17
  like
• 4:17
  it
• 4:17
  was
• 4:17
  a
• 4:18
  modified
• 4:19
  ICBM
• 4:20
  that
• 4:21
  had
• 4:21
  multiple
• 4:22
  independent
• 4:22
  reentry
• 4:23
  vehicle
• 4:24
  or
• 4:24
  MERV
• 4:24
  capability,
• 4:25
  which
• 4:26
  is
• 4:26
  why
• 4:26
  if
• 4:26
  you
• 4:26
  see
• 4:26
  the
• 4:26
  video
• 4:27
  on
• 4:27
  tv,
• 4:28
  you'll
• 4:28
  see
• 4:28
  what
• 4:28
  looks
• 4:29
  like
• 4:29
  multiple
• 4:29
  warheads
• 4:30
  coming
• 4:30
  down,
• 4:30
  hitting
• 4:30
  all
• 4:31
  at
• 4:31
  the
• 4:31
  same
• 4:31
  time.
• 4:31
  Well,
• 4:31
  that
• 4:32
  is
• 4:32
  MRVs,
• 4:32
  they
• 4:32
  have
• 4:33
  multiple
• 4:33
  reentry
• 4:34
  vehicles
• 4:35
  or
• 4:35
  multiple
• 4:36
  little
• 4:36
  warheads,
• 4:36
  if
• 4:36
  you
• 4:37
  will,
• 4:37
  that
• 4:38
  shoot
• 4:38
  off.
• 4:38
  And
• 4:39
  this
• 4:39
  was
• 4:39
  conventional.
• 4:40
  There
• 4:40
  was
• 4:40
  no
• 4:40
  nuclear
• 4:41
  stuff.
• 4:41
  But
• 4:42
  obviously
• 4:42
  the
• 4:42
  inference
• 4:43
  was
• 4:44
  backing
• 4:44
  up
• 4:45
  what
• 4:45
  they've
• 4:45
  been
• 4:45
  saying,
• 4:46
  which
• 4:46
  is,
• 4:47
  you
• 4:47
  know,
• 4:47
  that
• 4:48
  basically
• 4:49
  this
• 4:49
  decision
• 4:49
  by
• 4:49
  the
• 4:50
  Biden
• 4:50
  White
• 4:50
  House
• 4:50
  was
• 4:51
  reckless.
• 4:51
  And,
• 4:52
  and,
• 4:53
  and
• 4:53
  they
• 4:53
  also
• 4:53
  putting
• 4:54
  out
• 4:54
  a
• 4:54
  bunch
• 4:54
  of
• 4:56
  information
• 4:56
  ops
• 4:57
  or
• 4:57
  psyops
• 4:57
  to
• 4:58
  make
• 4:58
  it
• 4:58
  sound
• 4:58
  like
• 4:59
  a
• 4:59
  mentally
• 4:59
  enfeebled
• 5:01
  Biden
• 5:01
  made
• 5:01
  this
• 5:02
  crazy
• 5:03
  decision
• 5:03
  which
• 5:04
  could
• 5:04
  lead
• 5:04
  to
• 5:05
  World
• 5:05
  War
• 5:05
  3
• 5:05
  and
• 5:06
  all
• 5:06
  this
• 5:06
  stuff.
• 5:06
  This
• 5:06
  is
• 5:06
  typical
• 5:07
  Russian
• 5:07
  psychological
• 5:08
  operations,
• 5:09
  trying
• 5:09
  to
• 5:10
  reach
• 5:10
  out
• 5:10
  to
• 5:10
  the
• 5:11
  body
• 5:12
  politic,
• 5:12
  if
• 5:12
  you
• 5:12
  will.
• 5:13
  The
• 5:13
  western
• 5:13
  nations
• 5:14
  like
• 5:14
  the
• 5:14
  US
• 5:14
  and
• 5:14
  Europe,
• 5:15
  but
• 5:16
  they
• 5:16
  put
• 5:16
  all
• 5:16
  this
• 5:16
  stuff
• 5:17
  out
• 5:17
  there
• 5:17
  to
• 5:17
  make
• 5:18
  it
• 5:18
  look
• 5:18
  like
• 5:18
  it
• 5:18
  was
• 5:18
  something
• 5:18
  bigger
• 5:19
  than
• 5:19
  it
• 5:19
  actually
• 5:19
  was.
• 5:21
  That
• 5:21
  is
• 5:21
  much
• 5:22
  more
• 5:22
  weapon
• 5:22
  than
• 5:23
  what
• 5:23
  they
• 5:23
  need
• 5:23
  to
• 5:24
  use
• 5:24
  tactically
• 5:25
  or
• 5:25
  operationally
• 5:26
  in
• 5:26
  Ukraine,
• 5:28
  a
• 5:28
  lot
• 5:28
  more
• 5:28
  than
• 5:29
  whatever's
• 5:30
  required
• 5:30
  to
• 5:30
  whatever
• 5:31
  they
• 5:31
  want
• 5:31
  to
• 5:31
  do.
• 5:32
  But
• 5:32
  they
• 5:33
  used
• 5:33
  it.
• 5:33
  All
• 5:34
  right,
• 5:34
  and
• 5:34
  they
• 5:34
  call
• 5:35
  this
• 5:36
  missile
• 5:36
  on
• 5:36
  reshnik.
• 5:37
  But
• 5:38
  it's
• 5:38
  not
• 5:39
  really
• 5:39
  clear
• 5:39
  if
• 5:40
  this
• 5:40
  is
• 5:40
  really
• 5:40
  a
• 5:40
  new
• 5:41
  missile
• 5:41
  or
• 5:41
  just
• 5:41
  a
• 5:41
  rewickering
• 5:43
  of
• 5:43
  an
• 5:43
  old
• 5:43
  missile.
• 5:44
  In
• 5:44
  fact,
• 5:44
  it
• 5:44
  looks
• 5:44
  like
• 5:44
  a
• 5:45
  rewickering
• 5:45
  of
• 5:45
  old
• 5:45
  missile,
• 5:46
  something
• 5:47
  called
• 5:47
  a
• 5:48
  RS26
• 5:49
  Rubiz
• 5:50
  missile,
• 5:51
  which
• 5:52
  was
• 5:53
  earlier
• 5:54
  thought
• 5:54
  to
• 5:54
  be
• 5:55
  an
• 5:55
  ICBM
• 5:55
  that
• 5:55
  may
• 5:56
  have
• 5:56
  been
• 5:56
  re
• 5:56
  wickered
• 5:56
  into
• 5:57
  this
• 5:57
  missile.
• 5:57
  By
• 5:58
  the
• 5:58
  way,
• 5:58
  areshnik
• 5:59
  in
• 5:59
  Russian
• 5:59
  means
• 5:59
  hazel
• 6:00
  tree.
• 6:01
  I
• 6:01
  find
• 6:01
  that
• 6:02
  kind
• 6:02
  of
• 6:02
  interesting.
• 6:02
  I'm
• 6:03
  probably
• 6:03
  inferring
• 6:03
  the
• 6:03
  hazelnut.
• 6:05
  But
• 6:05
  anyway,
• 6:06
  they
• 6:07
  did
• 6:07
  that.
• 6:07
  They
• 6:07
  did
• 6:07
  this
• 6:08
  big
• 6:08
  attack.
• 6:08
  The
• 6:09
  attack
• 6:09
  was
• 6:09
  back
• 6:10
  on
• 6:10
  November
• 6:10
  20th.
• 6:10
  And
• 6:11
  it
• 6:11
  was
• 6:11
  also
• 6:11
  accompanied
• 6:12
  by
• 6:12
  some
• 6:12
  other
• 6:13
  missile
• 6:13
  attacks
• 6:14
  they
• 6:14
  used
• 6:14
  using
• 6:14
  bombers
• 6:16
  and
• 6:16
  MiG31,
• 6:18
  which
• 6:18
  is
• 6:18
  one
• 6:18
  of
• 6:19
  their
• 6:19
  most
• 6:19
  advanced
• 6:20
  fighter
• 6:20
  bomber
• 6:21
  capable,
• 6:22
  a
• 6:22
  standalone
• 6:23
  or
• 6:23
  a
• 6:23
  singular
• 6:24
  attack
• 6:25
  used,
• 6:25
  were
• 6:25
  shot
• 6:25
  down.
• 6:26
  Now
• 6:26
  Russia
• 6:27
  will
• 6:27
  say
• 6:27
  that
• 6:27
  there's
• 6:28
  no
• 6:28
  way
• 6:28
  that
• 6:29
  this
• 6:29
  new
• 6:29
  missile,
• 6:30
  this
• 6:30
  IRBM
• 6:31
  can
• 6:31
  be
• 6:32
  shot
• 6:32
  down.
• 6:32
  That's
• 6:32
  not
• 6:33
  really
• 6:33
  clear.
• 6:34
  What
• 6:34
  is
• 6:34
  clear
• 6:34
  is
• 6:34
  they
• 6:35
  aimed
• 6:35
  at
• 6:35
  a
• 6:35
  city
• 6:35
  where
• 6:35
  they
• 6:36
  probably
• 6:36
  didn't
• 6:36
  have
• 6:36
  some
• 6:37
  of
• 6:37
  our
• 6:37
  more
• 6:37
  advanced
• 6:37
  air
• 6:38
  defense
• 6:38
  systems
• 6:39
  like
• 6:39
  Nasums
• 6:40
  or
• 6:40
  Patriot
• 6:41
  missile
• 6:41
  battery.
• 6:42
  So
• 6:42
  it
• 6:42
  got
• 6:43
  in
• 6:43
  there,
• 6:43
  but
• 6:43
  they're
• 6:44
  creating
• 6:44
  that.
• 6:44
  Another
• 6:45
  thing
• 6:45
  that
• 6:45
  happened
• 6:45
  this
• 6:46
  recently
• 6:46
  is
• 6:46
  the
• 6:47
  Biden
• 6:47
  White
• 6:47
  House
• 6:48
  did
• 6:48
  something
• 6:49
  that
• 6:49
  was,
• 6:50
  I
• 6:51
  want
• 6:51
  to
• 6:51
  say
• 6:51
  for
• 6:51
  some
• 6:52
  surprising.
• 6:53
  In
• 6:53
  1997
• 6:54
  there
• 6:54
  was
• 6:54
  a
• 6:55
  international
• 6:56
  treaty
• 6:57
  prohibiting
• 6:57
  the
• 6:57
  use
• 6:58
  of
• 6:58
  landmines.
• 6:58
  And
• 6:59
  part
• 6:59
  of
• 6:59
  this
• 6:59
  came
• 6:59
  in.
• 6:59
  The
• 6:59
  wave
• 7:00
  of
• 7:00
  the
• 7:00
  Cold
• 7:00
  War
• 7:01
  is
• 7:01
  over.
• 7:02
  Big
• 7:02
  wars
• 7:02
  like
• 7:02
  that
• 7:03
  are
• 7:03
  a
• 7:03
  thing
• 7:03
  of
• 7:03
  the
• 7:03
  past.
• 7:04
  We're
• 7:04
  not
• 7:04
  going
• 7:04
  to
• 7:04
  have
• 7:04
  to
• 7:04
  worry
• 7:04
  about
• 7:05
  it.
• 7:05
  And
• 7:06
  one
• 7:06
  of
• 7:06
  the
• 7:06
  things
• 7:06
  that
• 7:06
  came
• 7:06
  out
• 7:07
  of
• 7:07
  the
• 7:07
  Cold
• 7:07
  War
• 7:07
  and
• 7:07
  still
• 7:08
  a
• 7:08
  legacy
• 7:08
  of
• 7:08
  World
• 7:08
  War
• 7:09
  I
• 7:09
  and
• 7:09
  even
• 7:09
  going
• 7:09
  back
• 7:09
  to
• 7:09
  World
• 7:10
  War
• 7:10
  II
• 7:11
  was
• 7:11
  the
• 7:13
  gazillion,
• 7:15
  a
• 7:16
  plethora,
• 7:16
  if
• 7:17
  you
• 7:17
  will,
• 7:17
  of
• 7:18
  landmines
• 7:18
  that
• 7:19
  were
• 7:19
  left
• 7:19
  over
• 7:19
  in
• 7:19
  these
• 7:19
  wars
• 7:20
  where
• 7:20
  they
• 7:20
  were
• 7:21
  not
• 7:21
  really
• 7:21
  accurately
• 7:22
  recorded
• 7:22
  as
• 7:23
  to
• 7:23
  where
• 7:23
  they
• 7:23
  were
• 7:24
  or
• 7:24
  if
• 7:24
  that
• 7:24
  recorded
• 7:25
  was
• 7:25
  done,
• 7:26
  it
• 7:26
  was
• 7:26
  lost
• 7:26
  to
• 7:26
  the
• 7:26
  ages.
• 7:27
  So
• 7:27
  nobody
• 7:27
  knew.
• 7:28
  And
• 7:28
  so
• 7:29
  you
• 7:29
  found
• 7:29
  places
• 7:29
  like
• 7:30
  Southeast
• 7:30
  Asia
• 7:31
  and
• 7:31
  elsewhere
• 7:31
  around
• 7:32
  the
• 7:32
  world
• 7:32
  where
• 7:32
  there
• 7:32
  are
• 7:32
  the
• 7:33
  minefields
• 7:34
  that
• 7:34
  were
• 7:35
  not
• 7:35
  really
• 7:35
  well
• 7:36
  recorded.
• 7:36
  And
• 7:37
  of
• 7:37
  course
• 7:37
  the
• 7:37
  problem
• 7:37
  is
• 7:38
  that
• 7:38
  people
• 7:39
  go
• 7:39
  out
• 7:39
  there,
• 7:40
  they
• 7:40
  do
• 7:40
  things.
• 7:40
  Farmers
• 7:41
  go
• 7:41
  out
• 7:41
  in
• 7:41
  these
• 7:41
  fields
• 7:42
  and
• 7:42
  occasionally
• 7:42
  step
• 7:43
  on
• 7:43
  a
• 7:43
  landmine
• 7:44
  that
• 7:45
  was
• 7:45
  laid,
• 7:45
  you
• 7:45
  know,
• 7:45
  10,
• 7:46
  20,
• 7:46
  30
• 7:47
  more
• 7:47
  years
• 7:47
  ago
• 7:48
  and
• 7:49
  blow
• 7:49
  themselves
• 7:49
  up
• 7:50
  or
• 7:50
  worse,
• 7:51
  a
• 7:51
  child
• 7:52
  will
• 7:52
  go
• 7:52
  out
• 7:53
  there
• 7:53
  and
• 7:53
  come
• 7:53
  across
• 7:54
  these
• 7:54
  things.
• 7:54
  In
• 7:54
  some
• 7:55
  cases
• 7:56
  they
• 7:56
  may
• 7:56
  think
• 7:56
  that
• 7:57
  some
• 7:57
  of
• 7:57
  them,
• 7:57
  they
• 7:58
  would
• 7:58
  think
• 7:58
  they
• 7:58
  were
• 7:58
  a
• 7:58
  toy
• 7:59
  or
• 7:59
  sign
• 7:59
  this
• 8:00
  treaty.
• 8:00
  The
• 8:00
  Russia
• 8:00
  did
• 8:01
  not
• 8:01
  sign
• 8:01
  this
• 8:01
  treaty,
• 8:02
  but
• 8:02
  the
• 8:02
  US
• 8:03
  this
• 8:03
  week
• 8:03
  said,
• 8:04
  hey
• 8:04
  look,
• 8:04
  we're
• 8:04
  going
• 8:04
  to
• 8:05
  release,
• 8:05
  we're
• 8:06
  going
• 8:06
  to
• 8:06
  send
• 8:06
  anti
• 8:07
  personnel.
• 8:07
  One
• 8:08
  of
• 8:08
  the
• 8:08
  reasons
• 8:09
  is,
• 8:09
  well,
• 8:09
  two
• 8:09
  reasons.
• 8:10
  Number
• 8:10
  one,
• 8:10
  Russia
• 8:11
  is
• 8:11
  using
• 8:12
  anti
• 8:12
  personnel
• 8:12
  landmines,
• 8:13
  extended
• 8:14
  loans.
• 8:14
  The
• 8:15
  other
• 8:15
  reason
• 8:15
  is
• 8:16
  that
• 8:17
  Russia
• 8:17
  knows
• 8:17
  Ukraine
• 8:18
  doesn't
• 8:19
  employ
• 8:19
  these
• 8:19
  mines.
• 8:20
  So
• 8:20
  instead
• 8:21
  of
• 8:21
  leading
• 8:21
  these
• 8:21
  big
• 8:22
  attacks
• 8:22
  with
• 8:23
  armor
• 8:24
  they
• 8:24
  have
• 8:24
  been
• 8:25
  using,
• 8:27
  these
• 8:27
  are
• 8:27
  often
• 8:27
  called
• 8:28
  meat
• 8:28
  wave
• 8:28
  attacks
• 8:29
  where
• 8:30
  they
• 8:30
  literally
• 8:30
  just
• 8:31
  throw
• 8:31
  the
• 8:31
  infantry
• 8:32
  into
• 8:32
  fire
• 8:33
  and
• 8:34
  they
• 8:34
  get
• 8:34
  cut
• 8:35
  down.
• 8:35
  They've
• 8:35
  been
• 8:35
  suffering
• 8:36
  horrendous
• 8:37
  losses,
• 8:37
  1500,
• 8:38
  2000
• 8:39
  troops
• 8:39
  being
• 8:39
  killed
• 8:40
  on
• 8:40
  a
• 8:40
  day
• 8:41
  regularly.
• 8:42
  Just
• 8:42
  a
• 8:42
  stunning
• 8:43
  amount
• 8:43
  of
• 8:43
  troops
• 8:44
  that
• 8:44
  are
• 8:44
  being
• 8:44
  wiped
• 8:45
  out
• 8:45
  in
• 8:45
  these
• 8:46
  just
• 8:46
  mindless
• 8:48
  kamikaze
• 8:49
  style
• 8:49
  attacks,
• 8:49
  if
• 8:50
  you
• 8:50
  will,
• 8:51
  that
• 8:51
  the
• 8:51
  Russians
• 8:51
  have
• 8:52
  been
• 8:52
  employing,
• 8:52
  well,
• 8:53
  if
• 8:53
  they
• 8:54
  have
• 8:54
  anti
• 8:55
  personnel
• 8:55
  mines
• 8:55
  out
• 8:56
  there,
• 8:56
  the
• 8:57
  thought
• 8:57
  is
• 8:57
  that
• 8:57
  once
• 8:58
  they
• 8:58
  start
• 8:58
  running
• 8:58
  into
• 8:59
  these
• 8:59
  anti
• 8:59
  personnel
• 9:00
  mines
• 9:00
  and
• 9:00
  they
• 9:00
  realize
• 9:01
  that
• 9:02
  they're
• 9:02
  get
• 9:03
  basically
• 9:03
  disrupted,
• 9:05
  they
• 9:05
  will
• 9:05
  change
• 9:05
  up
• 9:06
  their
• 9:06
  tactics,
• 9:06
  it'll
• 9:06
  slow
• 9:07
  them
• 9:07
  down
• 9:08
  and
• 9:08
  it'll
• 9:08
  slow
• 9:08
  down
• 9:09
  their
• 9:09
  offensive
• 9:09
  across
• 9:09
  the
• 9:10
  board.
• 9:10
  So
• 9:10
  that
• 9:10
  was
• 9:11
  a
• 9:11
  decision
• 9:11
  that
• 9:11
  was
• 9:11
  made
• 9:12
  and
• 9:12
  we'll
• 9:12
  see
• 9:12
  what
• 9:12
  effect
• 9:13
  it
• 9:13
  has
• 9:13
  on
• 9:13
  the
• 9:13
  battlefield.
• 9:14
  But
• 9:14
  it
• 9:14
  is
• 9:14
  interesting,
• 9:15
  we'll
• 9:15
  also
• 9:15
  see
• 9:15
  what
• 9:15
  effect
• 9:16
  it
• 9:16
  has
• 9:16
  on
• 9:16
  the
• 9:16
  international
• 9:16
  scene
• 9:17
  because
• 9:18
  frankly,
• 9:18
  there
• 9:19
  is
• 9:19
  a
• 9:19
  lot
• 9:19
  of
• 9:19
  pushback.
• 9:20
  You
• 9:20
  know,
• 9:20
  the
• 9:20
  United
• 9:21
  nations
• 9:21
  is
• 9:21
  very
• 9:21
  much
• 9:22
  for
• 9:22
  that
• 9:22
  1997
• 9:23
  treaty.
• 9:23
  Other
• 9:23
  countries
• 9:24
  are
• 9:24
  signatories
• 9:25
  to
• 9:25
  that
• 9:25
  treaty.
• 9:26
  But
• 9:26
  it
• 9:26
  is
• 9:26
  an
• 9:27
  issue
• 9:27
  of
• 9:28
  modern
• 9:28
  warfare,
• 9:29
  which
• 9:30
  is,
• 9:30
  it's
• 9:30
  a
• 9:30
  capability,
• 9:31
  it's
• 9:31
  been
• 9:31
  a
• 9:31
  capability
• 9:32
  that's
• 9:33
  been
• 9:33
  around
• 9:33
  for
• 9:34
  a
• 9:34
  long
• 9:34
  time.
• 9:34
  This
• 9:34
  is
• 9:35
  not
• 9:35
  some
• 9:35
  pseudoscience
• 9:36
  thing.
• 9:37
  And
• 9:37
  when
• 9:37
  you
• 9:37
  talk
• 9:37
  about
• 9:37
  conflict
• 9:38
  and
• 9:38
  warfare,
• 9:39
  you
• 9:39
  can
• 9:39
  make
• 9:39
  these,
• 9:40
  you
• 9:40
  know,
• 9:40
  these,
• 9:41
  you
• 9:41
  know,
• 9:41
  these
• 9:41
  strong
• 9:42
  moral
• 9:42
  arguments
• 9:43
  about
• 9:43
  this
• 9:43
  type
• 9:43
  of
• 9:43
  weapon
• 9:44
  is
• 9:44
  wrong
• 9:44
  and
• 9:44
  certainly
• 9:45
  has
• 9:45
  a
• 9:46
  lot
• 9:46
  of
• 9:47
  things
• 9:47
  are
• 9:47
  written
• 9:47
  in
• 9:48
  these
• 9:48
  ideas
• 9:48
  of,
• 9:49
  you
• 9:50
  know,
• 9:50
  we
• 9:50
  should
• 9:50
  fight
• 9:51
  nicer
• 9:52
  wars,
• 9:53
  if
• 9:53
  you
• 9:53
  will,
• 9:53
  we
• 9:54
  should
• 9:54
  not
• 9:54
  use
• 9:54
  certain
• 9:55
  weapons
• 9:55
  in
• 9:55
  certain
• 9:56
  ways
• 9:56
  or
• 9:56
  not
• 9:56
  use
• 9:56
  certain
• 9:57
  weapons
• 9:57
  at
• 9:57
  all.
• 9:58
  Syria
• 9:59
  uses
• 10:00
  chemical
• 10:00
  weapons.
• 10:01
  Well,
• 10:01
  that's
• 10:01
  banned
• 10:02
  on
• 10:02
  multiple
• 10:02
  levels,
• 10:03
  but
• 10:03
  they've
• 10:03
  been
• 10:03
  using
• 10:03
  chemical
• 10:04
  weapons
• 10:04
  on
• 10:04
  their
• 10:05
  own
• 10:05
  people
• 10:05
  for
• 10:05
  some
• 10:05
  time.
• 10:06
  Saddam
• 10:07
  Hussein,
• 10:07
  Iraq,
• 10:07
  used
• 10:08
  chemical
• 10:08
  weapons
• 10:08
  on
• 10:08
  his
• 10:09
  own
• 10:09
  people
• 10:09
  for
• 10:09
  some
• 10:09
  time.
• 10:10
  And
• 10:10
  so
• 10:11
  some
• 10:11
  of
• 10:11
  these
• 10:11
  weapons
• 10:12
  are
• 10:12
  banned
• 10:12
  that
• 10:12
  they're
• 10:13
  not
• 10:13
  supposed
• 10:13
  to
• 10:13
  use,
• 10:13
  they
• 10:14
  use
• 10:14
  anyway.
• 10:15
  And
• 10:16
  it
• 10:16
  does
• 10:16
  get
• 10:16
  to
• 10:16
  that
• 10:16
  issue
• 10:17
  of,
• 10:17
  okay,
• 10:18
  so
• 10:18
  we
• 10:18
  have
• 10:18
  a
• 10:19
  treaty
• 10:19
  that
• 10:19
  no
• 10:19
  one's
• 10:20
  complying
• 10:20
  with.
• 10:21
  What
• 10:21
  should
• 10:21
  we
• 10:21
  do?
• 10:22
  And
• 10:22
  that's
• 10:23
  a
• 10:23
  big
• 10:23
  issue.
• 10:24
  Now
• 10:24
  another
• 10:24
  thing
• 10:24
  that
• 10:25
  came
• 10:25
  up
• 10:25
  this
• 10:26
  recently
• 10:26
  is
• 10:28
  an
• 10:28
  interesting
• 10:29
  number.
• 10:30
  80%
• 10:31
  of
• 10:32
  the
• 10:32
  casualties
• 10:33
  that
• 10:33
  Ukrainian
• 10:33
  is
• 10:33
  able
• 10:34
  to
• 10:34
  inflict
• 10:34
  on
• 10:34
  the
• 10:34
  Russians,
• 10:35
  80%
• 10:36
  of
• 10:36
  those
• 10:37
  are
• 10:37
  now
• 10:37
  being
• 10:37
  accomplished
• 10:38
  by
• 10:38
  drones.
• 10:39
  If
• 10:39
  there
• 10:39
  was
• 10:40
  any
• 10:40
  academic
• 10:41
  debate
• 10:41
  about
• 10:42
  the
• 10:42
  effect
• 10:42
  of
• 10:42
  drones
• 10:43
  on
• 10:43
  the
• 10:43
  battlefield,
• 10:44
  I
• 10:44
  would
• 10:44
  hope
• 10:45
  that's
• 10:45
  been
• 10:45
  put
• 10:45
  to
• 10:45
  bed
• 10:46
  by
• 10:46
  now.
• 10:46
  It's
• 10:46
  not
• 10:47
  to
• 10:47
  say
• 10:47
  that
• 10:48
  the
• 10:48
  war
• 10:48
  in
• 10:49
  Ukraine
• 10:49
  is
• 10:49
  a
• 10:50
  drone
• 10:50
  war
• 10:51
  per
• 10:51
  se,
• 10:51
  unquote,
• 10:53
  but
• 10:53
  it
• 10:54
  is
• 10:54
  a
• 10:54
  war
• 10:55
  that
• 10:55
  is
• 10:55
  dominated
• 10:56
  by
• 10:56
  drones
• 10:57
  at
• 10:57
  a
• 10:57
  tactical,
• 10:58
  through
• 10:58
  the
• 10:58
  operational,
• 10:59
  some
• 10:59
  would
• 10:59
  even
• 10:59
  say
• 11:00
  more
• 11:00
  strategic
• 11:01
  level.
• 11:01
  Short
• 11:01
  range
• 11:02
  drones,
• 11:02
  first
• 11:02
  person
• 11:03
  view,
• 11:03
  FPV
• 11:04
  drones
• 11:04
  down
• 11:05
  at
• 11:05
  the
• 11:05
  small
• 11:05
  unit
• 11:06
  squad
• 11:06
  level.
• 11:07
  That's,
• 11:07
  you
• 11:07
  know,
• 11:07
  what's,
• 11:08
  what's
• 11:08
  around
• 11:08
  that
• 11:08
  bunker,
• 11:09
  what
• 11:09
  is
• 11:09
  in
• 11:10
  that
• 11:10
  trench
• 11:11
  line,
• 11:11
  what's
• 11:12
  over
• 11:12
  that
• 11:12
  hill,
• 11:12
  what's
• 11:13
  in
• 11:13
  that
• 11:13
  tree
• 11:13
  line.
• 11:14
  And
• 11:14
  doing
• 11:15
  some
• 11:15
  of
• 11:15
  the
• 11:15
  things
• 11:15
  we
• 11:15
  see
• 11:16
  with
• 11:16
  drone
• 11:16
  racing,
• 11:17
  where
• 11:17
  they
• 11:17
  zip
• 11:18
  in
• 11:18
  there
• 11:18
  so
• 11:18
  fast
• 11:19
  that,
• 11:19
  and
• 11:20
  going
• 11:20
  in
• 11:20
  through
• 11:21
  buildings
• 11:21
  and
• 11:22
  just
• 11:22
  revolutionizing
• 11:23
  Urban
• 11:23
  warfare,
• 11:24
  in
• 11:24
  terms
• 11:25
  of
• 11:25
  how
• 11:25
  that's
• 11:25
  been
• 11:25
  fought,
• 11:26
  these
• 11:26
  are
• 11:26
  significant
• 11:27
  changes
• 11:27
  that
• 11:27
  we're
• 11:28
  seeing.
• 11:28
  And
• 11:29
  so
• 11:29
  80%
• 11:29
  of
• 11:30
  those,
• 11:30
  and
• 11:31
  also
• 11:31
  Ukraine,
• 11:32
  they've
• 11:33
  been
• 11:33
  doing
• 11:33
  a
• 11:33
  lot
• 11:33
  of
• 11:34
  work
• 11:35
  with
• 11:35
  semi
• 11:36
  autonomous,
• 11:37
  not
• 11:37
  completely
• 11:37
  autonomous,
• 11:38
  but
• 11:38
  semi.
• 11:38
  See
• 11:39
  a
• 11:39
  target,
• 11:39
  they
• 11:39
  can
• 11:39
  mark
• 11:40
  it
• 11:40
  and
• 11:41
  take
• 11:41
  that
• 11:42
  out.
• 11:42
  Yep.
• 11:42
  Hit
• 11:43
  that
• 11:43
  trench
• 11:43
  line,
• 11:44
  whatever
• 11:44
  it
• 11:44
  is.
• 11:45
  That
• 11:45
  the
• 11:45
  drone
• 11:45
  will
• 11:46
  then
• 11:46
  figure
• 11:46
  out
• 11:46
  a
• 11:46
  way
• 11:47
  to
• 11:47
  best
• 11:47
  prosecute
• 11:48
  taking
• 11:49
  out
• 11:49
  that
• 11:49
  target.
• 11:50
  Exactly
• 11:50
  when
• 11:50
  they're
• 11:51
  going
• 11:51
  to
• 11:51
  put
• 11:52
  these
• 11:52
  drones
• 11:52
  out
• 11:52
  in
• 11:53
  mass
• 11:53
  production.
• 11:54
  And
• 11:54
  that
• 11:54
  this
• 11:54
  could
• 11:55
  cause
• 11:55
  a.
• 11:56
  What
• 11:56
  I
• 11:56
  would
• 11:56
  say
• 11:56
  is
• 11:57
  this,
• 11:57
  if
• 11:57
  that
• 11:57
  happens
• 11:58
  in
• 11:58
  Ukraine,
• 11:59
  and
• 11:59
  I
• 11:59
  have
• 11:59
  every
• 12:00
  reason
• 12:00
  to
• 12:00
  believe
• 12:00
  it
• 12:00
  will,
• 12:01
  it
• 12:01
  is
• 12:01
  going
• 12:01
  to
• 12:01
  revolutionize
• 12:03
  not
• 12:03
  just
• 12:04
  the
• 12:04
  Ukrainian
• 12:05
  battlefield.
• 12:06
  All
• 12:06
  right,
• 12:07
  it's
• 12:07
  going
• 12:07
  to
• 12:07
  be
• 12:07
  used
• 12:07
  to
• 12:08
  great
• 12:08
  effect
• 12:08
  on
• 12:08
  the
• 12:08
  Ukrainian
• 12:09
  battlefield,
• 12:09
  but
• 12:10
  it
• 12:10
  is
• 12:10
  going
• 12:10
  to
• 12:10
  revolutionize
• 12:12
  warfare
• 12:13
  worldwide.
• 12:14
  It
• 12:14
  is
• 12:14
  going
• 12:14
  to
• 12:15
  revolutionize
• 12:16
  counterinsurgency
• 12:17
  and
• 12:18
  counterterrorism
• 12:19
  worldwide.
• 12:20
  It
• 12:20
  is
• 12:20
  going
• 12:21
  to
• 12:21
  revolutionize
• 12:22
  terrorism,
• 12:24
  what
• 12:24
  terrorists
• 12:24
  do
• 12:25
  worldwide.
• 12:27
  It
• 12:27
  is
• 12:27
  going
• 12:27
  to
• 12:28
  revolutionize
• 12:28
  what
• 12:29
  criminals
• 12:29
  do,
• 12:30
  smuggling
• 12:31
  things
• 12:31
  like
• 12:32
  narcotics
• 12:32
  and
• 12:33
  weapons
• 12:33
  and
• 12:34
  doing
• 12:35
  all
• 12:35
  kinds
• 12:35
  of
• 12:35
  things
• 12:36
  that
• 12:36
  they
• 12:36
  currently
• 12:37
  do
• 12:37
  worldwide.
• 12:38
  And
• 12:39
  it's
• 12:39
  going
• 12:39
  to
• 12:39
  revolutionize
• 12:40
  law
• 12:41
  enforcement
• 12:42
  and
• 12:42
  security
• 12:43
  operations,
• 12:44
  whether
• 12:44
  public
• 12:44
  security,
• 12:45
  private
• 12:45
  security
• 12:46
  worldwide
• 12:47
  in
• 12:48
  a
• 12:48
  much
• 12:48
  more
• 12:49
  profound
• 12:49
  way.
• 12:49
  So
• 12:50
  I'm
• 12:50
  not
• 12:50
  saying
• 12:51
  that
• 12:51
  they're
• 12:51
  going
• 12:51
  to
• 12:51
  copy
• 12:52
  exactly
• 12:53
  what
• 12:53
  the
• 12:53
  Ukrainians
• 12:54
  are
• 12:54
  doing,
• 12:54
  but
• 12:54
  I
• 12:54
  am
• 12:55
  saying
• 12:55
  the
• 12:55
  Ukrainians
• 12:55
  are
• 12:56
  doing
• 12:56
  something
• 12:57
  at
• 12:57
  the
• 12:58
  strategic
• 12:59
  and
• 12:59
  operational
• 12:59
  level,
• 13:00
  incorporating
• 13:00
  this
• 13:01
  technology
• 13:01
  in
• 13:01
  a
• 13:01
  way
• 13:02
  that
• 13:02
  we
• 13:02
  have
• 13:02
  not
• 13:03
  seen
• 13:03
  before.
• 13:03
  And
• 13:03
  it
• 13:04
  is
• 13:04
  going
• 13:04
  to
• 13:04
  have
• 13:05
  some
• 13:06
  huge
• 13:07
  effects,
• 13:08
  some
• 13:08
  second
• 13:09
  and
• 13:09
  third
• 13:09
  order
• 13:09
  effects
• 13:10
  which
• 13:10
  go
• 13:11
  well
• 13:11
  beyond
• 13:11
  the
• 13:11
  headlines
• 13:12
  of
• 13:12
  what
• 13:13
  they're,
• 13:13
  what
• 13:13
  they're
• 13:13
  doing
• 13:13
  and
• 13:14
  what
• 13:14
  they're
• 13:14
  planning.
• 13:15
  And
• 13:15
  it's
• 13:15
  not
• 13:15
  that
• 13:15
  this,
• 13:16
  this
• 13:16
  technology
• 13:16
  does
• 13:17
  exist.
• 13:17
  It
• 13:17
  is
• 13:18
  out
• 13:18
  there,
• 13:18
  it
• 13:18
  is
• 13:18
  being
• 13:18
  used.
• 13:19
  Drone
• 13:19
  technology,
• 13:20
  artificial
• 13:21
  intelligence
• 13:22
  dominates
• 13:23
  the
• 13:23
  news
• 13:23
  cycle.
• 13:24
  Constant
• 13:25
  discussions
• 13:25
  on
• 13:26
  this.
• 13:26
  But
• 13:26
  it
• 13:26
  is
• 13:26
  changing
• 13:28
  the
• 13:28
  way
• 13:28
  that
• 13:28
  we
• 13:29
  deal
• 13:30
  with
• 13:30
  drones.
• 13:30
  We
• 13:31
  employ
• 13:31
  drones,
• 13:32
  and
• 13:33
  it's
• 13:33
  part
• 13:34
  of
• 13:34
  this
• 13:34
  whole
• 13:35
  AI
• 13:35
  revolution
• 13:36
  in
• 13:37
  terms
• 13:37
  of
• 13:37
  what's
• 13:37
  taking
• 13:38
  place
• 13:38
  maybe
• 13:39
  on
• 13:39
  the
• 13:39
  cusp
• 13:39
  of
• 13:40
  a
• 13:40
  big
• 13:40
  change
• 13:41
  in
• 13:41
  the
• 13:41
  background
• 13:42
  on
• 13:42
  South
• 13:42
  Korea,
• 13:43
  is
• 13:44
  that
• 13:45
  they
• 13:45
  want
• 13:45
  to
• 13:45
  become
• 13:46
  a
• 13:47
  major
• 13:48
  player
• 13:48
  in
• 13:49
  the
• 13:49
  international
• 13:50
  arms
• 13:50
  market.
• 13:51
  One
• 13:51
  of
• 13:51
  the
• 13:51
  things
• 13:51
  that's
• 13:52
  been
• 13:52
  burgeoning
• 13:53
  up
• 13:53
  over
• 13:53
  the
• 13:53
  last
• 13:54
  decade,
• 13:54
  some
• 13:55
  would
• 13:55
  say
• 13:55
  one
• 13:55
  to
• 13:56
  two
• 13:56
  decades,
• 13:56
  but
• 13:56
  certainly
• 13:57
  over
• 13:57
  the
• 13:57
  last
• 13:57
  decade,
• 13:58
  is
• 13:59
  this
• 14:00
  capability
• 14:01
  to
• 14:02
  build
• 14:02
  some
• 14:02
  high
• 14:02
  end
• 14:03
  weapon
• 14:03
  systems,
• 14:04
  a
• 14:04
  capability
• 14:05
  to
• 14:05
  build
• 14:05
  a
• 14:05
  lot
• 14:05
  of
• 14:05
  ammunition.
• 14:06
  Part
• 14:06
  of
• 14:06
  that
• 14:07
  was
• 14:07
  the
• 14:07
  requirements
• 14:08
  just
• 14:08
  on
• 14:08
  the
• 14:08
  peninsula
• 14:09
  themselves,
• 14:10
  dealing
• 14:10
  with
• 14:10
  the
• 14:10
  North
• 14:11
  Korean,
• 14:11
  the
• 14:11
  omnipresent
• 14:12
  North
• 14:13
  Korean
• 14:13
  threat,
• 14:14
  this
• 14:15
  huge
• 14:15
  potential
• 14:16
  invasion
• 14:16
  that
• 14:16
  may
• 14:17
  happen.
• 14:17
  And
• 14:18
  I
• 14:18
  have
• 14:18
  done
• 14:18
  military
• 14:19
  operations
• 14:19
  in
• 14:20
  North
• 14:20
  Korea
• 14:20
  going
• 14:21
  back
• 14:21
  a
• 14:21
  very,
• 14:22
  very
• 14:22
  long
• 14:23
  time.
• 14:23
  And
• 14:24
  I
• 14:24
  will
• 14:24
  Tell
• 14:24
  you
• 14:25
  that
• 14:25
  it's
• 14:25
  always
• 14:26
  been
• 14:26
  a
• 14:27
  very
• 14:27
  tense
• 14:27
  peninsula
• 14:29
  in
• 14:29
  terms
• 14:29
  of
• 14:29
  military
• 14:30
  confrontation
• 14:31
  and
• 14:31
  also
• 14:32
  in
• 14:32
  terms
• 14:32
  of
• 14:32
  COVID
• 14:33
  activity
• 14:33
  that
• 14:34
  goes
• 14:34
  on.
• 14:34
  Not
• 14:34
  just
• 14:35
  the
• 14:35
  North
• 14:35
  Koreans,
• 14:35
  but
• 14:36
  the
• 14:36
  Chinese
• 14:36
  intelligence
• 14:37
  is
• 14:37
  in
• 14:37
  there
• 14:37
  extensively.
• 14:39
  Russian
• 14:39
  intelligence
• 14:40
  is
• 14:40
  in
• 14:40
  there
• 14:40
  extensively.
• 14:41
  It
• 14:41
  is
• 14:41
  a
• 14:42
  busy,
• 14:42
  busy
• 14:42
  place,
• 14:43
  let's
• 14:43
  just
• 14:43
  put
• 14:43
  it
• 14:43
  that
• 14:43
  way.
• 14:44
  One
• 14:44
  of
• 14:44
  the
• 14:44
  things
• 14:45
  that's
• 14:45
  come
• 14:45
  out
• 14:45
  with
• 14:45
  this
• 14:46
  big
• 14:46
  push
• 14:46
  and
• 14:46
  there's
• 14:47
  about
• 14:47
  10
• 14:47
  to
• 14:48
  11,000
• 14:49
  North
• 14:49
  Korean
• 14:50
  troops
• 14:51
  that
• 14:51
  are
• 14:51
  in
• 14:51
  Russia,
• 14:52
  they're
• 14:53
  going
• 14:54
  there.
• 14:54
  There
• 14:55
  are
• 14:55
  reports
• 14:57
  it's
• 14:57
  been
• 14:57
  getting
• 14:58
  a
• 14:58
  lot
• 14:58
  of
• 14:58
  play
• 14:58
  in
• 14:59
  South
• 14:59
  Korea.
• 15:00
  A
• 15:00
  North
• 15:01
  Korean
• 15:01
  soldier
• 15:02
  and
• 15:02
  his
• 15:02
  entire
• 15:02
  unit
• 15:03
  was
• 15:03
  pretty
• 15:03
  much
• 15:03
  wiped
• 15:04
  out
• 15:04
  trying
• 15:05
  to
• 15:05
  fight
• 15:05
  the
• 15:05
  Ukrainians.
• 15:06
  And
• 15:06
  I'm
• 15:06
  assuming
• 15:07
  they
• 15:07
  were
• 15:07
  used
• 15:08
  probably
• 15:08
  in
• 15:09
  one
• 15:09
  of
• 15:09
  these
• 15:09
  meat
• 15:09
  wave
• 15:09
  type
• 15:10
  of
• 15:10
  attacks,
• 15:10
  which,
• 15:11
  you
• 15:11
  know,
• 15:12
  one
• 15:12
  could
• 15:12
  argue
• 15:12
  that
• 15:13
  was
• 15:13
  a
• 15:13
  gross
• 15:14
  misapplication
• 15:15
  of
• 15:15
  military
• 15:16
  manpower,
• 15:16
  military
• 15:17
  capability.
• 15:18
  Whatever
• 15:19
  the
• 15:19
  reason,
• 15:20
  they
• 15:20
  did
• 15:20
  not
• 15:20
  do
• 15:21
  well.
• 15:21
  But
• 15:21
  there's
• 15:22
  now
• 15:22
  reports,
• 15:23
  and
• 15:23
  Secretary
• 15:23
  of
• 15:23
  Defense
• 15:24
  Austin
• 15:25
  has
• 15:25
  basically
• 15:25
  said
• 15:26
  that
• 15:26
  they're
• 15:26
  going
• 15:26
  to
• 15:26
  be
• 15:26
  used
• 15:27
  much
• 15:27
  more
• 15:27
  extensively
• 15:28
  across
• 15:28
  the
• 15:28
  board.
• 15:28
  So
• 15:28
  he's
• 15:29
  expecting
• 15:29
  to
• 15:29
  see
• 15:29
  that.
• 15:30
  And
• 15:30
  also
• 15:31
  that
• 15:31
  air
• 15:31
  defense,
• 15:32
  some
• 15:32
  very
• 15:32
  advanced
• 15:33
  weaponry
• 15:33
  capabilities,
• 15:34
  dealing
• 15:35
  with
• 15:35
  missiles
• 15:35
  and
• 15:35
  other
• 15:36
  things
• 15:36
  back
• 15:36
  to
• 15:37
  North
• 15:37
  Korea
• 15:37
  to
• 15:37
  include
• 15:38
  air
• 15:38
  defense
• 15:39
  capabilities
• 15:39
  as
• 15:39
  well.
• 15:40
  More
• 15:40
  advanced
• 15:40
  air
• 15:41
  defense
• 15:41
  capabilities.
• 15:41
  Anyway,
• 15:42
  what
• 15:42
  this
• 15:42
  does
• 15:43
  mean
• 15:43
  is
• 15:44
  that
• 15:44
  South
• 15:44
  Korea
• 15:45
  is
• 15:45
  looking
• 15:45
  at
• 15:45
  what
• 15:45
  it
• 15:45
  should
• 15:46
  do
• 15:46
  now
• 15:46
  officially.
• 15:47
  If
• 15:47
  you
• 15:47
  look
• 15:47
  on
• 15:47
  Wikipedia,
• 15:48
  you
• 15:48
  have
• 15:48
  in
• 15:48
  its.
• 15:49
  It'll
• 15:50
  say
• 15:50
  a
• 15:50
  little
• 15:50
  over
• 15:50
  3
• 15:51
  million.
• 15:51
  Okay.
• 15:52
  The
• 15:52
  reality
• 15:53
  is
• 15:53
  it
• 15:54
  may
• 15:54
  be
• 15:54
  closer
• 15:55
  to
• 15:55
  five
• 15:55
  and
• 15:56
  a
• 15:56
  half
• 15:56
  or
• 15:56
  more
• 15:57
  million
• 15:57
  rounds.
• 15:58
  Some
• 15:58
  of
• 15:58
  the
• 15:59
  rounds
• 15:59
  are
• 15:59
  older.
• 15:59
  Korea,
• 16:00
  Reese,
• 16:00
  for
• 16:00
  example,
• 16:01
  NATO
• 16:01
  countries.
• 16:02
  And
• 16:02
  then
• 16:02
  those
• 16:02
  NATO
• 16:03
  countries
• 16:03
  can
• 16:03
  either
• 16:04
  use
• 16:04
  that
• 16:04
  ammunition
• 16:05
  to
• 16:05
  recharge
• 16:06
  their
• 16:06
  war
• 16:07
  reserves
• 16:07
  and
• 16:07
  then
• 16:08
  send
• 16:08
  the
• 16:08
  ammunition
• 16:09
  in
• 16:09
  their
• 16:09
  war
• 16:09
  reserves
• 16:10
  directly
• 16:10
  to
• 16:11
  Ukraine,
• 16:11
  or
• 16:11
  they
• 16:12
  can
• 16:12
  do
• 16:12
  something
• 16:12
  where
• 16:12
  eventually
• 16:13
  that
• 16:13
  ammunition
• 16:14
  makes
• 16:14
  it
• 16:14
  over
• 16:14
  to
• 16:15
  Ukraine
• 16:15
  directly.
• 16:16
  However
• 16:16
  they
• 16:16
  do
• 16:16
  that,
• 16:16
  it
• 16:17
  looks
• 16:17
  like
• 16:17
  there's
• 16:18
  a
• 16:18
  lot
• 16:18
  of
• 16:18
  ammunition
• 16:18
  over
• 16:19
  there.
• 16:19
  And
• 16:20
  it's
• 16:20
  not.
• 16:21
  It's
• 16:21
  not
• 16:21
  unrealistic.
• 16:22
  Some
• 16:22
  would
• 16:22
  say
• 16:22
  it's
• 16:23
  already
• 16:23
  been
• 16:23
  going
• 16:23
  on
• 16:24
  that
• 16:24
  hundreds
• 16:24
  of
• 16:25
  thousands
• 16:25
  of
• 16:25
  rounds
• 16:26
  of
• 16:27
  South
• 16:27
  Korean
• 16:27
  ammunition
• 16:28
  has
• 16:28
  made
• 16:28
  its
• 16:28
  way
• 16:29
  into
• 16:30
  either
• 16:31
  backstopping
• 16:31
  ammunition
• 16:32
  shipments
• 16:33
  going
• 16:33
  into
• 16:34
  Ukraine
• 16:35
  or
• 16:35
  going
• 16:35
  to
• 16:35
  Ukraine
• 16:36
  indirectly.
• 16:37
  But
• 16:37
  now
• 16:37
  there's
• 16:38
  a
• 16:38
  lot
• 16:38
  more
• 16:38
  pressure
• 16:39
  to
• 16:39
  do
• 16:39
  this
• 16:40
  because
• 16:40
  of
• 16:40
  what
• 16:41
  Russia
• 16:41
  is
• 16:41
  doing
• 16:42
  with
• 16:42
  North
• 16:42
  Korea.
• 16:43
  And
• 16:43
  whereas
• 16:44
  the
• 16:44
  president
• 16:45
  of
• 16:45
  South
• 16:45
  Korea,
• 16:45
  President
• 16:46
  Yoon,
• 16:46
  doesn't
• 16:46
  appear
• 16:46
  to
• 16:47
  be
• 16:47
  in
• 16:47
  a
• 16:47
  hurry
• 16:48
  to
• 16:48
  make
• 16:48
  a
• 16:48
  decision
• 16:48
  like
• 16:49
  this.
• 16:50
  It
• 16:50
  could
• 16:51
  happen.
• 16:51
  And
• 16:52
  of
• 16:52
  course,
• 16:52
  the
• 16:52
  other
• 16:52
  thing
• 16:53
  is
• 16:53
  we're
• 16:53
  looking
• 16:53
  at
• 16:53
  this
• 16:54
  major
• 16:54
  ground
• 16:54
  war.
• 16:55
  They've
• 16:55
  got
• 16:55
  things
• 16:56
  like
• 16:56
  tanks,
• 16:56
  artillery,
• 16:57
  and
• 16:57
  other
• 16:57
  things
• 16:58
  that
• 16:58
  they
• 16:58
  would
• 16:58
  love
• 16:58
  to
• 16:58
  see
• 16:59
  showcased
• 17:00
  in
• 17:00
  actual
• 17:01
  combat
• 17:01
  operations.
• 17:02
  So
• 17:02
  there
• 17:03
  is
• 17:03
  a
• 17:03
  dollar
• 17:03
  and
• 17:03
  cents
• 17:04
  Reason
• 17:04
  to
• 17:04
  sell.
• 17:05
  Another
• 17:05
  thing
• 17:05
  I
• 17:06
  want
• 17:06
  to
• 17:06
  point
• 17:06
  out
• 17:06
  is
• 17:07
  hybrid
• 17:07
  warfare.
• 17:08
  This
• 17:08
  is
• 17:08
  called
• 17:08
  gray
• 17:09
  zone
• 17:09
  activities.
• 17:10
  In
• 17:10
  many
• 17:10
  cases,
• 17:11
  we
• 17:12
  see
• 17:12
  things
• 17:12
  such
• 17:13
  as
• 17:13
  ships
• 17:14
  at
• 17:14
  sea
• 17:15
  that
• 17:15
  do
• 17:15
  not
• 17:16
  broadcast
• 17:16
  on
• 17:16
  their
• 17:17
  AIs,
• 17:17
  their
• 17:18
  automated
• 17:19
  identification
• 17:19
  system,
• 17:20
  which
• 17:20
  was
• 17:21
  not
• 17:21
  meant
• 17:21
  to
• 17:21
  track
• 17:22
  ships
• 17:22
  as
• 17:22
  to
• 17:23
  where
• 17:23
  they
• 17:23
  are,
• 17:23
  so
• 17:23
  much
• 17:24
  as
• 17:24
  to
• 17:24
  be
• 17:24
  a
• 17:24
  safety
• 17:25
  thing
• 17:25
  to
• 17:26
  tell
• 17:26
  other
• 17:26
  ships
• 17:26
  in
• 17:26
  the
• 17:26
  area,
• 17:27
  hey,
• 17:27
  here
• 17:27
  I
• 17:27
  am.
• 17:27
  Don't
• 17:27
  run
• 17:28
  into
• 17:28
  me.
• 17:28
  All
• 17:28
  right?
• 17:29
  That
• 17:29
  was
• 17:30
  the
• 17:30
  purpose
• 17:30
  of
• 17:30
  AIs.
• 17:30
  AIs
• 17:31
  has
• 17:31
  since
• 17:31
  kind
• 17:32
  of
• 17:32
  grown
• 17:32
  into
• 17:32
  the
• 17:33
  system
• 17:33
  that's
• 17:34
  supposed
• 17:34
  to
• 17:34
  identify
• 17:34
  ships.
• 17:35
  But
• 17:36
  there
• 17:36
  is
• 17:36
  no
• 17:36
  legal
• 17:37
  obligation
• 17:38
  for
• 17:38
  ships
• 17:38
  to
• 17:38
  broadcast
• 17:39
  their
• 17:39
  position
• 17:40
  on
• 17:40
  AIs.
• 17:41
  In
• 17:41
  fact,
• 17:42
  in
• 17:43
  Gulf
• 17:43
  of
• 17:43
  Aden,
• 17:44
  Baba
• 17:44
  Van
• 17:44
  Dam
• 17:45
  Strait,
• 17:45
  there
• 17:46
  was
• 17:46
  recognized
• 17:47
  that
• 17:47
  the
• 17:47
  Houthis
• 17:47
  were
• 17:48
  literally
• 17:48
  tracking
• 17:48
  the
• 17:49
  AIs
• 17:49
  signals
• 17:49
  of
• 17:50
  commercial
• 17:50
  ships
• 17:51
  and
• 17:51
  using
• 17:52
  those
• 17:52
  to
• 17:52
  target
• 17:53
  those
• 17:53
  commercial
• 17:53
  ships.
• 17:54
  Well,
• 17:55
  real
• 17:55
  simple,
• 17:56
  commercial
• 17:56
  ships
• 17:56
  and
• 17:56
  other
• 17:57
  ships
• 17:57
  in
• 17:57
  the
• 17:57
  area
• 17:57
  just
• 17:57
  quit
• 17:58
  broadcasting
• 17:58
  AIs.
• 17:59
  That
• 18:00
  was
• 18:00
  a
• 18:00
  safety
• 18:01
  issue
• 18:01
  for
• 18:01
  them,
• 18:02
  which
• 18:02
  is
• 18:02
  it
• 18:02
  was
• 18:03
  unsafe
• 18:03
  to
• 18:04
  broadcast
• 18:05
  their
• 18:05
  AIs
• 18:06
  systems
• 18:06
  in
• 18:06
  that
• 18:06
  area,
• 18:07
  which
• 18:07
  made
• 18:07
  a
• 18:07
  lot
• 18:08
  of
• 18:08
  sense.
• 18:08
  So
• 18:08
  they,
• 18:08
  so
• 18:09
  they
• 18:09
  did.
• 18:09
  They
• 18:09
  stopped
• 18:10
  doing
• 18:10
  that.
• 18:11
  And
• 18:12
  that's
• 18:12
  an
• 18:12
  issue
• 18:13
  with
• 18:13
  the
• 18:13
  Russians
• 18:14
  with
• 18:14
  their
• 18:14
  tankers.
• 18:15
  They've
• 18:15
  been
• 18:16
  employing
• 18:16
  this
• 18:16
  dark
• 18:17
  tanker
• 18:18
  fleet,
• 18:18
  if
• 18:18
  you
• 18:18
  will,
• 18:19
  which
• 18:19
  a
• 18:19
  lot
• 18:19
  of
• 18:19
  them
• 18:19
  are
• 18:19
  really
• 18:20
  unsafe,
• 18:21
  old,
• 18:21
  poorly
• 18:22
  maintained
• 18:23
  tankers.
• 18:24
  It
• 18:24
  truly
• 18:24
  an
• 18:25
  environmental
• 18:25
  disaster,
• 18:26
  you
• 18:27
  know,
• 18:27
  rolling
• 18:27
  across
• 18:28
  the
• 18:28
  seas,
• 18:28
  if
• 18:28
  you
• 18:28
  will,
• 18:29
  that
• 18:29
  now
• 18:29
  doesn't
• 18:29
  even
• 18:29
  tell
• 18:30
  other
• 18:30
  ships
• 18:31
  in
• 18:31
  the
• 18:31
  area
• 18:31
  where
• 18:31
  they
• 18:31
  are.
• 18:32
  That's
• 18:32
  been
• 18:32
  happening
• 18:33
  a
• 18:33
  lot.
• 18:33
  So
• 18:33
  that's.
• 18:34
  This
• 18:34
  whole
• 18:34
  gray
• 18:34
  zone
• 18:34
  activity
• 18:35
  has
• 18:35
  been
• 18:35
  happening.
• 18:35
  But
• 18:36
  this
• 18:37
  last
• 18:37
  week,
• 18:37
  we
• 18:37
  saw
• 18:38
  reports
• 18:39
  coming
• 18:39
  out
• 18:39
  that
• 18:40
  a
• 18:40
  couple
• 18:40
  of
• 18:40
  major
• 18:41
  fiber
• 18:41
  optic
• 18:42
  cables
• 18:43
  were
• 18:43
  severed
• 18:44
  in
• 18:44
  the
• 18:44
  Baltic.
• 18:45
  This
• 18:45
  follows
• 18:45
  on
• 18:45
  fiber
• 18:46
  optic
• 18:46
  cables
• 18:47
  that
• 18:47
  have
• 18:47
  been
• 18:47
  severed
• 18:48
  elsewhere
• 18:48
  to
• 18:49
  include
• 18:49
  the
• 18:49
  Baltic
• 18:49
  area
• 18:50
  in
• 18:50
  the
• 18:51
  past.
• 18:51
  And
• 18:52
  this
• 18:52
  includes
• 18:53
  underwater
• 18:54
  pipelines
• 18:55
  that
• 18:55
  have
• 18:56
  had
• 18:57
  also
• 18:57
  been
• 18:58
  damaged
• 18:58
  under
• 18:59
  mysterious
• 18:59
  circumstances
• 19:00
  to
• 19:00
  include
• 19:01
  in
• 19:01
  the
• 19:01
  Baltic.
• 19:02
  All
• 19:02
  right,
• 19:03
  so
• 19:04
  this
• 19:04
  is
• 19:04
  a,
• 19:04
  this
• 19:05
  is
• 19:05
  a
• 19:05
  big
• 19:05
  issue
• 19:05
  now.
• 19:05
  What's
• 19:06
  come
• 19:06
  out
• 19:06
  of
• 19:06
  this
• 19:07
  is
• 19:07
  the
• 19:08
  suspicion
• 19:08
  has
• 19:08
  been
• 19:09
  falling
• 19:09
  on
• 19:09
  about
• 19:10
  two
• 19:10
  or
• 19:11
  three
• 19:11
  Chinese
• 19:12
  ships
• 19:13
  that
• 19:13
  were
• 19:13
  in
• 19:13
  that
• 19:14
  area
• 19:14
  and
• 19:14
  were
• 19:15
  right
• 19:15
  around
• 19:15
  where
• 19:15
  those
• 19:16
  cables
• 19:16
  were
• 19:16
  severed.
• 19:17
  And
• 19:17
  Germany
• 19:18
  has
• 19:18
  come
• 19:18
  out
• 19:19
  and
• 19:19
  said
• 19:19
  that
• 19:19
  they
• 19:19
  see
• 19:20
  this
• 19:20
  as
• 19:20
  clearly
• 19:20
  as
• 19:21
  being
• 19:21
  sabotage.
• 19:22
  They
• 19:22
  didn't
• 19:22
  say
• 19:22
  it
• 19:23
  was
• 19:23
  Russia
• 19:23
  was
• 19:24
  behind
• 19:24
  the
• 19:24
  whole
• 19:24
  thing,
• 19:24
  but
• 19:25
  the
• 19:25
  inference
• 19:25
  is
• 19:25
  that
• 19:26
  Russia
• 19:26
  was
• 19:26
  kind
• 19:26
  of
• 19:26
  behind
• 19:27
  the
• 19:27
  whole
• 19:27
  thing.
• 19:27
  And
• 19:28
  the,
• 19:28
  and
• 19:28
  the
• 19:28
  other
• 19:28
  inference
• 19:29
  is
• 19:29
  that
• 19:29
  the
• 19:30
  Chinese
• 19:30
  and
• 19:30
  the
• 19:30
  Russians
• 19:31
  may
• 19:31
  be
• 19:31
  working
• 19:32
  together
• 19:33
  to
• 19:33
  sever
• 19:33
  these
• 19:34
  cables.
• 19:34
  Now,
• 19:34
  I
• 19:35
  don't
• 19:35
  think
• 19:35
  it's
• 19:35
  a,
• 19:36
  it's
• 19:36
  a
• 19:37
  surprised
• 19:38
  that
• 19:38
  these
• 19:38
  cables
• 19:39
  are
• 19:39
  connecting
• 19:40
  the
• 19:40
  new
• 19:40
  NATO
• 19:41
  countries
• 19:42
  of
• 19:42
  Scandinavia
• 19:43
  with
• 19:43
  the
• 19:44
  old
• 19:44
  NATO
• 19:45
  countries
• 19:45
  down
• 19:46
  in
• 19:46
  mainland
• 19:47
  Europe
• 19:47
  or
• 19:47
  mainland
• 19:48
  main
• 19:48
  part
• 19:48
  of
• 19:48
  Europe,
• 19:49
  in
• 19:49
  this
• 19:49
  case,
• 19:49
  between
• 19:50
  Sweden
• 19:50
  and
• 19:51
  Germany
• 19:51
  that
• 19:52
  these
• 19:52
  cables
• 19:52
  were
• 19:52
  cut.
• 19:53
  In
• 19:53
  fact,
• 19:53
  one
• 19:53
  of
• 19:53
  the
• 19:53
  cables
• 19:54
  was
• 19:55
  a
• 19:55
  truly
• 19:55
  critical
• 19:56
  piece
• 19:56
  of
• 19:57
  the
• 19:57
  digital
• 19:58
  nations
• 19:59
  network
• 20:00
  that
• 20:01
  connects
• 20:01
  those
• 20:02
  countries,
• 20:02
  that
• 20:02
  connects
• 20:03
  Europe,
• 20:03
  if
• 20:03
  you
• 20:03
  will,
• 20:04
  with
• 20:04
  those
• 20:04
  with
• 20:04
  Scandinavia.
• 20:06
  So
• 20:06
  it
• 20:07
  has
• 20:07
  huge
• 20:07
  implications.
• 20:08
  One
• 20:09
  of
• 20:09
  the
• 20:09
  ships,
• 20:09
  one
• 20:09
  of
• 20:09
  the
• 20:10
  Chinese,
• 20:10
  a
• 20:10
  bulk
• 20:11
  carrier
• 20:11
  Chinese
• 20:12
  ships,
• 20:13
  the
• 20:13
  Yiping
• 20:14
  3,
• 20:15
  it
• 20:16
  was
• 20:16
  being
• 20:16
  tracked
• 20:16
  by
• 20:17
  the
• 20:17
  Danish
• 20:17
  Navy,
• 20:17
  it
• 20:18
  went
• 20:18
  up
• 20:18
  to
• 20:18
  the
• 20:18
  Danish
• 20:19
  Straits
• 20:19
  and
• 20:20
  it
• 20:20
  is
• 20:21
  basically
• 20:22
  being
• 20:22
  tracked
• 20:23
  very
• 20:23
  closely
• 20:24
  by
• 20:25
  Denmark
• 20:26
  to
• 20:26
  find
• 20:27
  out
• 20:27
  what
• 20:27
  exactly
• 20:28
  is
• 20:28
  going
• 20:28
  on.
• 20:28
  Just
• 20:29
  to
• 20:29
  remind
• 20:29
  everyone,
• 20:30
  99%
• 20:31
  of
• 20:32
  global
• 20:32
  digital
• 20:32
  communications
• 20:34
  goes
• 20:34
  via
• 20:35
  fiber
• 20:35
  optic
• 20:35
  cables
• 20:36
  under
• 20:36
  the
• 20:36
  oceans.
• 20:37
  It's
• 20:38
  not
• 20:38
  via
• 20:38
  satellite,
• 20:39
  it's
• 20:39
  not
• 20:39
  via
• 20:40
  some
• 20:40
  other
• 20:40
  way.
• 20:41
  So
• 20:41
  when
• 20:41
  you're
• 20:41
  talking
• 20:42
  about
• 20:42
  fiber
• 20:42
  optic
• 20:42
  cables,
• 20:43
  this
• 20:43
  is
• 20:43
  a
• 20:43
  big
• 20:43
  deal.
• 20:43
  The
• 20:43
  other
• 20:44
  thing
• 20:44
  too
• 20:44
  is
• 20:45
  China
• 20:45
  is
• 20:46
  not
• 20:46
  new
• 20:46
  to
• 20:47
  the
• 20:47
  concept
• 20:47
  of
• 20:48
  cutting
• 20:48
  off
• 20:48
  fiber
• 20:48
  optic
• 20:49
  cables.
• 20:49
  This
• 20:49
  is
• 20:49
  something
• 20:50
  they've
• 20:50
  been
• 20:50
  doing
• 20:50
  routinely
• 20:52
  in
• 20:52
  the
• 20:52
  South
• 20:52
  China
• 20:53
  Sea.
• 20:53
  It
• 20:53
  got
• 20:53
  to
• 20:54
  be
• 20:54
  like
• 20:54
  a
• 20:54
  regular
• 20:55
  thing
• 20:55
  with
• 20:55
  some
• 20:55
  of
• 20:55
  the
• 20:56
  outer
• 20:57
  islands
• 20:57
  that
• 20:57
  Taiwan
• 20:59
  owns
• 21:00
  that
• 21:00
  Chinese
• 21:01
  ships
• 21:01
  would
• 21:01
  go
• 21:01
  out
• 21:01
  there
• 21:02
  and
• 21:02
  cut
• 21:02
  the
• 21:03
  cables,
• 21:03
  the
• 21:03
  fiber
• 21:03
  optic
• 21:04
  cables
• 21:04
  go
• 21:04
  to
• 21:04
  those
• 21:04
  islands.
• 21:05
  One
• 21:05
  of
• 21:05
  the
• 21:05
  islands
• 21:05
  actually
• 21:05
  went
• 21:06
  so
• 21:06
  far
• 21:06
  as
• 21:06
  to
• 21:06
  build
• 21:06
  this
• 21:07
  rather
• 21:07
  extensive
• 21:08
  satellite,
• 21:09
  digital
• 21:09
  satellite
• 21:10
  communications
• 21:10
  array
• 21:11
  simply
• 21:12
  because
• 21:12
  their
• 21:12
  fiber
• 21:13
  optic
• 21:13
  cables
• 21:13
  kept
• 21:14
  getting
• 21:14
  cut
• 21:14
  so
• 21:14
  often
• 21:15
  that
• 21:15
  they
• 21:16
  wanted
• 21:16
  to
• 21:16
  maintain
• 21:16
  some
• 21:17
  level
• 21:17
  of
• 21:17
  communications
• 21:18
  in
• 21:19
  anticipation
• 21:20
  that
• 21:20
  the
• 21:20
  Chinese
• 21:21
  would
• 21:21
  cut
• 21:21
  their
• 21:21
  cables
• 21:22
  again.
• 21:22
  And
• 21:22
  so
• 21:23
  the
• 21:23
  Chinese
• 21:23
  are
• 21:23
  not
• 21:24
  new
• 21:24
  to
• 21:24
  the
• 21:25
  concept
• 21:25
  of
• 21:25
  doing
• 21:25
  this,
• 21:25
  the
• 21:26
  Russians
• 21:26
  are.
• 21:27
  And
• 21:27
  by
• 21:27
  the
• 21:27
  way,
• 21:28
  sometimes
• 21:28
  these
• 21:28
  cables
• 21:29
  get
• 21:29
  cut
• 21:29
  to
• 21:29
  things
• 21:30
  that
• 21:31
  been
• 21:31
  similar
• 21:31
  incidents.
• 21:32
  There
• 21:32
  was
• 21:32
  In
• 21:33
  October
• 21:33
  of
• 21:34
  2023,
• 21:35
  Baltic
• 21:36
  Connector
• 21:36
  Gas
• 21:37
  pipeline
• 21:37
  linking
• 21:38
  Estonia
• 21:38
  with
• 21:39
  Finland
• 21:39
  was
• 21:40
  very
• 21:40
  badly
• 21:41
  damaged.
• 21:42
  Ten
• 21:42
  months
• 21:42
  later
• 21:43
  there
• 21:43
  was
• 21:43
  a
• 21:44
  Hong
• 21:44
  Kong
• 21:44
  based
• 21:44
  and
• 21:45
  by
• 21:45
  the
• 21:45
  way
• 21:45
  Hong
• 21:46
  Kong
• 21:47
  part
• 21:47
  of
• 21:47
  China,
• 21:48
  whatever
• 21:48
  illusion
• 21:49
  that
• 21:49
  Hong
• 21:49
  Kong
• 21:50
  is
• 21:50
  and
• 21:50
  part
• 21:50
  of
• 21:50
  the
• 21:50
  People's
• 21:51
  Republic
• 21:51
  of
• 21:51
  China
• 21:51
  is
• 21:52
  long
• 21:52
  ago
• 21:53
  changed.
• 21:54
  Hong
• 21:54
  Kong
• 21:54
  Richard
• 21:55
  tanker
• 21:56
  had
• 21:57
  damaged,
• 21:58
  damaged
• 21:58
  in
• 21:59
  European
• 21:59
  storm
• 22:00
  may
• 22:00
  have
• 22:00
  been
• 22:01
  tied
• 22:01
  to
• 22:01
  that
• 22:02
  as
• 22:02
  well.
• 22:03
  So
• 22:03
  this
• 22:04
  is
• 22:04
  not
• 22:04
  the
• 22:04
  first
• 22:04
  time
• 22:05
  we've
• 22:05
  seen
• 22:05
  this.
• 22:05
  By
• 22:06
  the
• 22:06
  way,
• 22:06
  it
• 22:06
  was
• 22:06
  pointed
• 22:07
  out
• 22:07
  that
• 22:08
  the
• 22:08
  Chinese
• 22:08
  story
• 22:09
  that,
• 22:09
  that
• 22:10
  their
• 22:10
  anchor,
• 22:11
  that
• 22:11
  was
• 22:11
  an
• 22:11
  anchor,
• 22:11
  it
• 22:11
  was
• 22:12
  an
• 22:12
  accident
• 22:12
  and
• 22:12
  stuff.
• 22:13
  The
• 22:13
  storm
• 22:14
  doesn't
• 22:15
  really
• 22:15
  bear
• 22:15
  fruit
• 22:15
  because
• 22:16
  when
• 22:16
  they
• 22:16
  went
• 22:16
  back
• 22:16
  and
• 22:16
  looked,
• 22:17
  there
• 22:17
  were
• 22:17
  absolutely
• 22:17
  no
• 22:18
  storms
• 22:18
  in
• 22:18
  the
• 22:18
  area
• 22:19
  on
• 22:19
  the
• 22:19
  day
• 22:19
  that
• 22:19
  they
• 22:19
  said
• 22:20
  it
• 22:20
  would
• 22:20
  have
• 22:20
  happened.
• 22:21
  So
• 22:21
  it
• 22:22
  was
• 22:22
  obvious
• 22:22
  that
• 22:22
  the
• 22:22
  Chinese
• 22:23
  were
• 22:23
  making
• 22:23
  up
• 22:23
  a
• 22:23
  story
• 22:24
  on
• 22:25
  that
• 22:25
  previous
• 22:25
  incident
• 22:26
  and
• 22:26
  that's
• 22:26
  why
• 22:26
  they're
• 22:27
  really
• 22:27
  focusing
• 22:27
  on
• 22:28
  the
• 22:28
  Chinese
• 22:28
  on
• 22:28
  this.
• 22:29
  Let
• 22:30
  me
• 22:30
  talk
• 22:30
  about,
• 22:31
  let
• 22:31
  me
• 22:31
  switch
• 22:32
  down
• 22:32
  south
• 22:32
  to
• 22:33
  the
• 22:33
  Middle
• 22:33
  east,
• 22:34
  all
• 22:34
  right.
• 22:35
  And
• 22:35
  let's
• 22:35
  talk
• 22:35
  about
• 22:36
  Israel,
• 22:36
  Iran,
• 22:38
  the
• 22:38
  axis
• 22:38
  of
• 22:39
  resistance.
• 22:39
  What's
• 22:40
  going
• 22:40
  on
• 22:40
  there?
• 22:40
  You
• 22:40
  may
• 22:41
  have
• 22:41
  seen
• 22:42
  that
• 22:42
  Iran
• 22:43
  announced,
• 22:43
  in
• 22:43
  fact
• 22:44
  they
• 22:44
  announced
• 22:44
  it
• 22:45
  this
• 22:45
  last,
• 22:45
  late
• 22:46
  this
• 22:46
  last
• 22:46
  week
• 22:46
  on
• 22:47
  Friday,
• 22:47
  that
• 22:47
  it
• 22:48
  was
• 22:48
  activating
• 22:49
  its
• 22:49
  new
• 22:50
  advanced
• 22:50
  centrifuges.
• 22:51
  Well,
• 22:52
  now,
• 22:52
  what
• 22:52
  are
• 22:52
  centrifuges?
• 22:53
  Well,
• 22:53
  centrifuges,
• 22:55
  obviously,
• 22:55
  for
• 22:55
  those
• 22:56
  who
• 22:56
  are
• 22:56
  aware,
• 22:56
  like,
• 22:56
  yes,
• 22:57
  they
• 22:57
  move
• 22:57
  very
• 22:57
  quickly.
• 22:58
  They.
• 22:58
  And
• 22:59
  what
• 22:59
  it
• 22:59
  is,
• 22:59
  is
• 22:59
  part
• 23:00
  of
• 23:00
  the
• 23:00
  process
• 23:01
  whereby
• 23:01
  uranium
• 23:02
  is
• 23:02
  enriched,
• 23:03
  as
• 23:04
  in
• 23:04
  a
• 23:05
  nuclear
• 23:05
  program,
• 23:06
  in
• 23:06
  this
• 23:06
  case
• 23:06
  Iran's
• 23:07
  nuclear
• 23:07
  program.
• 23:08
  And
• 23:09
  they
• 23:09
  have
• 23:09
  been
• 23:10
  targeted
• 23:10
  before.
• 23:10
  In
• 23:10
  fact,
• 23:11
  the
• 23:11
  very
• 23:11
  famous
• 23:13
  cyber
• 23:14
  attack
• 23:15
  which
• 23:16
  occurred
• 23:16
  against
• 23:16
  Iran,
• 23:17
  which
• 23:18
  caused
• 23:18
  the
• 23:19
  centrifuges
• 23:20
  to
• 23:20
  literally
• 23:21
  destroy
• 23:21
  themselves.
• 23:23
  So
• 23:23
  it's
• 23:23
  been
• 23:24
  a
• 23:24
  big
• 23:24
  issue.
• 23:24
  Now,
• 23:24
  this
• 23:24
  comes
• 23:25
  right
• 23:25
  on
• 23:25
  the
• 23:25
  heels
• 23:25
  of
• 23:26
  a
• 23:26
  United
• 23:26
  nations
• 23:27
  report
• 23:27
  by
• 23:28
  its
• 23:28
  nuclear
• 23:28
  watchdog
• 23:29
  agency,
• 23:30
  which
• 23:30
  criticized
• 23:31
  Iran
• 23:32
  for
• 23:32
  not
• 23:32
  cooperating
• 23:34
  with
• 23:34
  the
• 23:34
  UN
• 23:35
  in
• 23:35
  that
• 23:35
  regard.
• 23:37
  And
• 23:37
  Iran
• 23:38
  has
• 23:38
  said
• 23:38
  that
• 23:38
  they're
• 23:39
  going
• 23:39
  to.
• 23:39
  There's
• 23:40
  a
• 23:40
  lot
• 23:40
  of
• 23:40
  some
• 23:40
  advanced
• 23:41
  centrifuges,
• 23:41
  different
• 23:42
  types
• 23:42
  that
• 23:42
  they're
• 23:42
  going
• 23:42
  to
• 23:43
  be
• 23:43
  using.
• 23:44
  And
• 23:44
  well,
• 23:45
  one
• 23:45
  of
• 23:45
  the
• 23:45
  things
• 23:46
  with
• 23:46
  this
• 23:47
  conflict,
• 23:47
  and
• 23:47
  particularly
• 23:48
  with
• 23:48
  what
• 23:48
  happened
• 23:49
  with
• 23:49
  the
• 23:49
  last
• 23:50
  Israeli
• 23:50
  strike,
• 23:51
  which
• 23:52
  was
• 23:52
  a
• 23:52
  fairly
• 23:53
  significant
• 23:53
  widespread
• 23:54
  strike
• 23:56
  against
• 23:56
  Iran
• 23:58
  in
• 23:58
  response
• 23:59
  to
• 23:59
  a
• 23:59
  fairly
• 24:00
  big
• 24:00
  strike
• 24:00
  by
• 24:01
  Iran
• 24:02
  against
• 24:02
  Israel,
• 24:03
  was
• 24:04
  that
• 24:04
  it
• 24:04
  may
• 24:05
  trigger
• 24:05
  Iran.
• 24:06
  Iran
• 24:07
  may
• 24:08
  sit
• 24:08
  back
• 24:08
  and
• 24:08
  say,
• 24:09
  hmm,
• 24:10
  and
• 24:10
  this
• 24:10
  was
• 24:10
  the
• 24:11
  hope
• 24:11
  that
• 24:11
  they
• 24:11
  would
• 24:11
  sit
• 24:12
  back
• 24:12
  and
• 24:12
  say,
• 24:12
  hmm,
• 24:13
  maybe
• 24:13
  we
• 24:14
  shouldn't
• 24:14
  do
• 24:14
  anything
• 24:14
  to
• 24:15
  provoke
• 24:15
  the
• 24:15
  Israelis
• 24:16
  anymore.
• 24:17
  Maybe
• 24:17
  we're
• 24:17
  more
• 24:18
  vulnerable
• 24:18
  to
• 24:18
  Israeli
• 24:19
  attack
• 24:19
  than
• 24:19
  we
• 24:19
  want
• 24:19
  to
• 24:20
  let
• 24:20
  on.
• 24:20
  And
• 24:20
  here's
• 24:20
  the
• 24:21
  thing.
• 24:21
  Israel
• 24:21
  is
• 24:22
  not
• 24:22
  going
• 24:22
  to
• 24:22
  invade
• 24:23
  Iran.
• 24:24
  Israel
• 24:25
  has
• 24:25
  no
• 24:26
  designs
• 24:26
  on
• 24:27
  taking
• 24:27
  Iranian
• 24:28
  territory.
• 24:29
  First
• 24:29
  off,
• 24:30
  it's
• 24:30
  geographically
• 24:31
  something
• 24:31
  that
• 24:32
  just
• 24:32
  ain't
• 24:32
  going
• 24:32
  to
• 24:32
  happen.
• 24:33
  They're
• 24:34
  not
• 24:34
  even
• 24:34
  close
• 24:35
  to
• 24:35
  each
• 24:35
  other,
• 24:35
  geographically
• 24:36
  speaking.
• 24:37
  There's,
• 24:37
  there's
• 24:37
  countries
• 24:38
  between
• 24:38
  them,
• 24:39
  a
• 24:39
  lot
• 24:39
  of
• 24:40
  terrain,
• 24:40
  and
• 24:40
  I'm
• 24:41
  kind
• 24:41
  of
• 24:41
  familiar
• 24:41
  with
• 24:42
  a
• 24:42
  lot
• 24:42
  of
• 24:42
  terrain
• 24:42
  between
• 24:43
  them
• 24:43
  and
• 24:43
  between
• 24:44
  Israel
• 24:44
  and
• 24:44
  Iran.
• 24:44
  So
• 24:45
  that
• 24:45
  wasn't
• 24:45
  going
• 24:45
  to
• 24:45
  happen
• 24:46
  anytime
• 24:46
  soon.
• 24:46
  And
• 24:47
  I
• 24:47
  would
• 24:47
  say
• 24:47
  not
• 24:47
  going
• 24:48
  to
• 24:48
  happen,
• 24:48
  period.
• 24:49
  So
• 24:50
  that
• 24:50
  wasn't
• 24:50
  something
• 24:50
  there.
• 24:51
  But
• 24:51
  Iran
• 24:52
  needs
• 24:52
  to
• 24:53
  maintain
• 24:54
  for
• 24:54
  their,
• 24:54
  for
• 24:54
  the
• 24:55
  regime.
• 24:55
  They
• 24:55
  need
• 24:55
  to
• 24:56
  maintain
• 24:56
  the
• 24:57
  idea
• 24:57
  that
• 24:57
  they
• 24:57
  are
• 24:58
  opposed
• 24:58
  to
• 24:59
  Israel,
• 24:59
  that
• 24:59
  they
• 25:00
  want
• 25:00
  to
• 25:00
  see
• 25:00
  the
• 25:00
  destruction
• 25:01
  of
• 25:01
  Israel.
• 25:02
  And
• 25:02
  there
• 25:02
  is
• 25:02
  this,
• 25:03
  you
• 25:03
  know,
• 25:03
  this
• 25:04
  pervasive
• 25:05
  myth
• 25:05
  story,
• 25:05
  if
• 25:06
  you
• 25:06
  will,
• 25:07
  that
• 25:07
  has
• 25:07
  been
• 25:07
  out
• 25:07
  there
• 25:08
  for
• 25:08
  many
• 25:08
  years,
• 25:09
  that
• 25:09
  Israel
• 25:09
  is
• 25:10
  the
• 25:10
  last
• 25:10
  European
• 25:11
  colony.
• 25:12
  And
• 25:12
  that's
• 25:13
  because
• 25:13
  so
• 25:13
  many
• 25:13
  of
• 25:14
  the
• 25:14
  Israeli
• 25:15
  citizens
• 25:16
  either,
• 25:17
  well,
• 25:17
  not
• 25:17
  so
• 25:17
  much
• 25:18
  they
• 25:18
  themselves,
• 25:18
  but
• 25:19
  certainly
• 25:19
  their
• 25:20
  parents
• 25:20
  or
• 25:20
  grandparents,
• 25:21
  many
• 25:21
  of
• 25:22
  them
• 25:22
  came
• 25:22
  over
• 25:22
  from
• 25:22
  Europe
• 25:23
  after
• 25:24
  the
• 25:24
  Holocaust
• 25:26
  and
• 25:27
  moved
• 25:27
  into
• 25:28
  Israel.
• 25:29
  So
• 25:29
  there
• 25:29
  is
• 25:29
  a
• 25:29
  lot
• 25:29
  of
• 25:30
  this
• 25:30
  Ashkenazi
• 25:31
  Jews
• 25:32
  that
• 25:32
  are
• 25:33
  Israeli
• 25:33
  citizens,
• 25:34
  a
• 25:34
  lot
• 25:34
  of
• 25:34
  European,
• 25:35
  European,
• 25:36
  I'd
• 25:37
  say
• 25:37
  European
• 25:37
  Jews,
• 25:37
  I
• 25:38
  guess
• 25:38
  the
• 25:38
  way
• 25:38
  to
• 25:38
  put
• 25:38
  it,
• 25:39
  that
• 25:39
  have
• 25:39
  moved
• 25:40
  back
• 25:40
  to
• 25:40
  Israel.
• 25:41
  And
• 25:41
  so
• 25:42
  this
• 25:42
  Whole
• 25:42
  pervasive
• 25:43
  thing
• 25:43
  throughout
• 25:43
  the
• 25:43
  Middle
• 25:44
  east
• 25:44
  that
• 25:44
  all
• 25:44
  this
• 25:44
  is
• 25:45
  nothing
• 25:45
  more
• 25:45
  than
• 25:45
  a
• 25:46
  European
• 25:47
  colonial
• 25:48
  thing.
• 25:48
  And
• 25:48
  that's
• 25:48
  why
• 25:48
  Israel's
• 25:49
  there.
• 25:49
  And
• 25:49
  hence,
• 25:50
  hence
• 25:50
  you
• 25:50
  have
• 25:50
  a
• 25:50
  number
• 25:51
  of
• 25:51
  countries
• 25:51
  that
• 25:51
  were
• 25:52
  dedicated
• 25:52
  to
• 25:53
  basically
• 25:54
  destroying
• 25:54
  Israel.
• 25:55
  And
• 25:55
  now
• 25:56
  that's
• 25:56
  changed
• 25:56
  a
• 25:56
  lot.
• 25:57
  Obviously
• 25:57
  some
• 25:57
  of
• 25:58
  these
• 25:58
  extremist
• 25:58
  groups
• 25:58
  like
• 25:59
  Hezbollah
• 26:00
  based
• 26:00
  in
• 26:00
  Lebanon
• 26:01
  and
• 26:01
  in
• 26:01
  Hamas
• 26:02
  in
• 26:02
  the
• 26:02
  Gaza
• 26:03
  Strip,
• 26:03
  to
• 26:03
  a
• 26:03
  lesser
• 26:03
  extent
• 26:04
  the
• 26:04
  west
• 26:04
  bank
• 26:05
  still,
• 26:05
  that
• 26:05
  is
• 26:06
  their
• 26:06
  mantra.
• 26:06
  They
• 26:06
  want
• 26:07
  to
• 26:07
  destroy
• 26:07
  Israel
• 26:08
  and
• 26:08
  Iran
• 26:08
  would
• 26:09
  like
• 26:09
  to
• 26:10
  destroy
• 26:10
  Israel.
• 26:11
  All
• 26:11
  right,
• 26:11
  so
• 26:12
  Iran
• 26:13
  has
• 26:13
  been
• 26:14
  assessed
• 26:14
  many
• 26:14
  times
• 26:14
  being
• 26:15
  very
• 26:15
  close
• 26:15
  to
• 26:15
  having
• 26:15
  the
• 26:16
  capability
• 26:17
  of
• 26:17
  possibly
• 26:17
  making
• 26:18
  a
• 26:18
  nuclear
• 26:19
  weapon.
• 26:20
  And
• 26:20
  so
• 26:20
  this
• 26:20
  is
• 26:20
  getting
• 26:21
  a
• 26:21
  lot
• 26:21
  of
• 26:22
  focus
• 26:22
  and
• 26:22
  a
• 26:22
  lot
• 26:23
  of
• 26:23
  attention.
• 26:23
  The
• 26:24
  US
• 26:24
  and
• 26:24
  other
• 26:24
  countries
• 26:25
  have
• 26:25
  said,
• 26:25
  no,
• 26:25
  we
• 26:26
  can't
• 26:26
  have
• 26:27
  this
• 26:27
  extremist,
• 26:29
  very
• 26:29
  dangerous
• 26:30
  regime
• 26:31
  in
• 26:31
  Iran
• 26:32
  with
• 26:32
  nuclear
• 26:32
  weapons.
• 26:33
  And
• 26:33
  what
• 26:34
  this,
• 26:34
  the
• 26:34
  implications
• 26:35
  are
• 26:35
  that
• 26:36
  if
• 26:37
  they
• 26:37
  do
• 26:38
  develop
• 26:38
  a
• 26:38
  nuclear
• 26:38
  weapon,
• 26:39
  if
• 26:39
  they
• 26:39
  test
• 26:40
  a
• 26:40
  nuclear
• 26:40
  weapon
• 26:40
  or
• 26:41
  do
• 26:41
  something
• 26:41
  like
• 26:41
  that,
• 26:42
  this
• 26:42
  will
• 26:43
  put
• 26:43
  a
• 26:44
  strong
• 26:44
  imperative
• 26:45
  on
• 26:46
  the
• 26:46
  US
• 26:46
  and
• 26:47
  other
• 26:47
  countries,
• 26:48
  not
• 26:48
  just
• 26:48
  Israel,
• 26:49
  to
• 26:49
  deal
• 26:49
  with
• 26:50
  this
• 26:50
  threat.
• 26:50
  And
• 26:51
  that
• 26:51
  brings
• 26:51
  us
• 26:51
  back
• 26:51
  to
• 26:52
  B2
• 26:52
  bombers.
• 26:53
  B2
• 26:54
  bombers
• 26:54
  were
• 26:55
  used
• 26:56
  against
• 26:56
  the
• 26:56
  Houthi
• 26:57
  rebels
• 26:57
  not
• 26:58
  too
• 26:58
  long
• 26:58
  ago
• 26:58
  in
• 26:58
  October,
• 26:59
  actually
• 26:59
  launched
• 26:59
  from
• 27:00
  the
• 27:00
  United
• 27:00
  States.
• 27:00
  They're
• 27:01
  not
• 27:01
  something
• 27:01
  we
• 27:02
  normally
• 27:02
  base
• 27:03
  overseas,
• 27:04
  maybe
• 27:04
  in
• 27:05
  Guam,
• 27:05
  all
• 27:05
  right,
• 27:06
  but
• 27:07
  not
• 27:07
  anywhere
• 27:07
  close
• 27:08
  to
• 27:09
  bombers
• 27:10
  came
• 27:10
  out
• 27:10
  of
• 27:11
  the
• 27:11
  US
• 27:12
  really
• 27:13
  long
• 27:13
  legs,
• 27:13
  as
• 27:14
  you
• 27:14
  can
• 27:14
  imagine.
• 27:14
  These
• 27:15
  flight
• 27:15
  legs
• 27:15
  are
• 27:15
  extremely
• 27:16
  long.
• 27:17
  And
• 27:17
  one
• 27:17
  of
• 27:18
  the
• 27:18
  things
• 27:18
  that
• 27:18
  B2S
• 27:19
  can
• 27:19
  do
• 27:19
  is
• 27:19
  not
• 27:19
  just
• 27:20
  drop
• 27:20
  nuclear
• 27:20
  weapons,
• 27:21
  but
• 27:21
  they
• 27:21
  drop
• 27:22
  some
• 27:23
  conventional
• 27:23
  weapons,
• 27:24
  very
• 27:24
  unique,
• 27:25
  very
• 27:25
  big,
• 27:26
  which
• 27:27
  are
• 27:27
  truly
• 27:28
  bunker,
• 27:29
  the
• 27:29
  ultimate
• 27:29
  bunker
• 27:30
  busters,
• 27:30
  if
• 27:30
  you
• 27:31
  will.
• 27:31
  These
• 27:32
  are
• 27:32
  weapons
• 27:32
  that
• 27:32
  bore
• 27:33
  into
• 27:33
  wave
• 27:33
  effect
• 27:34
  that
• 27:34
  will,
• 27:34
  that
• 27:34
  will
• 27:35
  destroy
• 27:35
  underground
• 27:35
  facilities,
• 27:36
  nuclear
• 27:36
  program.
• 27:37
  Israel
• 27:38
  does
• 27:38
  not
• 27:38
  have
• 27:39
  B2
• 27:39
  bombers.
• 27:40
  We're
• 27:40
  the
• 27:41
  only
• 27:41
  country,
• 27:41
  the
• 27:41
  U.S.
• 27:41
  the
• 27:42
  only
• 27:42
  country
• 27:42
  has
• 27:42
  B2
• 27:43
  bombers.
• 27:43
  And
• 27:44
  we
• 27:44
  have
• 27:44
  recently
• 27:45
  used
• 27:45
  those
• 27:45
  bombers
• 27:46
  in
• 27:46
  the
• 27:46
  Middle
• 27:46
  east
• 27:47
  against
• 27:47
  a
• 27:48
  proxy
• 27:49
  that
• 27:49
  was
• 27:50
  targeting
• 27:50
  not
• 27:50
  just
• 27:51
  ships,
• 27:52
  but
• 27:53
  actually
• 27:53
  targeting
• 27:54
  US
• 27:54
  Military
• 27:56
  craft
• 27:56
  or
• 27:57
  targeting
• 27:57
  our
• 27:57
  US
• 27:58
  Navy
• 27:58
  ships.
• 27:59
  We
• 27:59
  have
• 28:00
  used
• 28:00
  those
• 28:00
  bombers
• 28:01
  in
• 28:01
  that
• 28:01
  area.
• 28:01
  So
• 28:02
  the
• 28:02
  statement
• 28:02
  is
• 28:02
  made
• 28:03
  that,
• 28:03
  hey,
• 28:04
  don't
• 28:04
  ignore
• 28:04
  the
• 28:04
  fact
• 28:05
  that
• 28:05
  we
• 28:05
  have
• 28:05
  this
• 28:05
  capability,
• 28:06
  which
• 28:07
  the
• 28:07
  Israelis
• 28:08
  don't,
• 28:09
  that
• 28:09
  could
• 28:09
  be
• 28:10
  turned
• 28:10
  to
• 28:11
  the
• 28:11
  stealth
• 28:11
  bomber
• 28:12
  capability
• 28:13
  to
• 28:13
  go
• 28:13
  after
• 28:14
  your
• 28:15
  hard
• 28:15
  to
• 28:15
  hit
• 28:16
  nuclear
• 28:16
  sites.
• 28:16
  And
• 28:17
  of
• 28:17
  course,
• 28:17
  Israel
• 28:18
  has
• 28:18
  done
• 28:18
  some
• 28:18
  things
• 28:18
  to
• 28:19
  make
• 28:19
  it
• 28:19
  very
• 28:19
  clear
• 28:20
  that
• 28:21
  those
• 28:21
  nuclear
• 28:21
  facilities
• 28:22
  are
• 28:22
  vulnerable
• 28:23
  to
• 28:23
  air
• 28:24
  attack.
• 28:25
  And
• 28:25
  so
• 28:25
  I
• 28:26
  just
• 28:26
  kind
• 28:26
  of
• 28:26
  want
• 28:26
  to
• 28:26
  bring
• 28:27
  that
• 28:27
  up.
• 28:27
  That's
• 28:27
  something
• 28:27
  we're
• 28:28
  going
• 28:28
  to
• 28:28
  watch
• 28:28
  very
• 28:28
  closely
• 28:29
  to
• 28:29
  see
• 28:29
  what's
• 28:29
  going
• 28:29
  on
• 28:30
  because
• 28:30
  it's
• 28:31
  possible
• 28:31
  that
• 28:32
  that
• 28:32
  that
• 28:32
  can
• 28:33
  happen.
• 28:33
  The
• 28:33
  other
• 28:33
  thing
• 28:33
  I
• 28:33
  think
• 28:33
  that's
• 28:34
  interesting
• 28:34
  too
• 28:35
  is
• 28:35
  that
• 28:35
  things
• 28:36
  are
• 28:36
  coming
• 28:36
  into
• 28:36
  place
• 28:37
  very
• 28:37
  quickly
• 28:38
  for
• 28:38
  a
• 28:38
  possible
• 28:39
  ceasefire
• 28:39
  in
• 28:40
  Lebanon,
• 28:41
  not
• 28:41
  in
• 28:41
  Gaza,
• 28:42
  but
• 28:43
  in
• 28:43
  Lebanon.
• 28:43
  And
• 28:44
  that
• 28:44
  Israel,
• 28:44
  at
• 28:45
  the
• 28:45
  end
• 28:45
  of
• 28:45
  the
• 28:45
  day,
• 28:45
  may
• 28:46
  have
• 28:46
  forcefully
• 28:47
  reasserted
• 28:48
  the
• 28:49
  provisions
• 28:50
  of
• 28:50
  the
• 28:51
  UN
• 28:51
  Security
• 28:51
  Council
• 28:52
  Resolution
• 28:52
  1701.
• 28:54
  The
• 28:55
  UN
• 28:55
  peacekeepers
• 28:56
  there
• 28:56
  weren't
• 28:56
  doing
• 28:57
  anything.
• 28:57
  And
• 28:57
  one
• 28:57
  of
• 28:57
  the
• 28:57
  things
• 28:58
  that
• 28:58
  will
• 28:58
  come
• 28:58
  out
• 28:58
  after
• 28:58
  this
• 28:59
  war
• 28:59
  is
• 28:59
  done,
• 28:59
  it's
• 29:00
  already
• 29:00
  starting
• 29:00
  to
• 29:00
  come
• 29:00
  out,
• 29:01
  is
• 29:02
  just
• 29:02
  how
• 29:02
  pervasive
• 29:03
  the
• 29:04
  Hezbollah
• 29:05
  terrorist
• 29:05
  paramilitary
• 29:06
  presence
• 29:07
  was
• 29:08
  in
• 29:08
  that
• 29:08
  area
• 29:09
  that
• 29:09
  was
• 29:09
  supposed
• 29:09
  to
• 29:09
  be
• 29:09
  demilitarized
• 29:11
  from
• 29:11
  Hezbollah
• 29:12
  paramilitary
• 29:13
  presence.
• 29:14
  And
• 29:14
  they're
• 29:14
  finding
• 29:15
  caches
• 29:15
  of
• 29:16
  weapons.
• 29:16
  They
• 29:16
  found
• 29:16
  a
• 29:17
  huge
• 29:17
  cachet
• 29:18
  of
• 29:18
  Russian
• 29:18
  weapons,
• 29:19
  Russian
• 29:20
  supplied
• 29:20
  weapons.
• 29:21
  Whether
• 29:21
  those
• 29:21
  came
• 29:21
  through
• 29:22
  Syria
• 29:23
  or
• 29:23
  from
• 29:23
  Iran
• 29:24
  to
• 29:24
  Hezbollah
• 29:25
  or
• 29:25
  directly
• 29:25
  from
• 29:25
  Russia,
• 29:26
  that's
• 29:27
  still
• 29:27
  to
• 29:27
  be
• 29:27
  figured
• 29:28
  out.
• 29:28
  But
• 29:28
  they
• 29:28
  found
• 29:29
  this
• 29:29
  massive
• 29:29
  cache
• 29:30
  of
• 29:30
  weapons
• 29:31
  that
• 29:31
  they
• 29:32
  were
• 29:32
  using
• 29:32
  that
• 29:32
  they
• 29:33
  put
• 29:33
  there
• 29:33
  in
• 29:33
  a
• 29:35
  school,
• 29:35
  a
• 29:36
  schoolyard,
• 29:37
  which
• 29:37
  is
• 29:37
  under
• 29:38
  international
• 29:38
  law,
• 29:39
  a
• 29:39
  protected
• 29:40
  site
• 29:41
  that's
• 29:42
  been
• 29:42
  targeted.
• 29:43
  They
• 29:43
  found
• 29:43
  these
• 29:43
  weapons
• 29:44
  going
• 29:44
  in
• 29:44
  there.
• 29:44
  And
• 29:45
  obviously
• 29:46
  it
• 29:46
  goes
• 29:47
  back
• 29:47
  to
• 29:48
  what
• 29:48
  was
• 29:48
  the
• 29:48
  Lebanese
• 29:48
  army
• 29:49
  doing?
• 29:49
  What
• 29:50
  were
• 29:50
  these
• 29:50
  international
• 29:51
  peacekeepers
• 29:51
  doing
• 29:52
  that
• 29:52
  Hezbollah
• 29:53
  was
• 29:53
  basically
• 29:53
  running
• 29:54
  amok
• 29:54
  in
• 29:54
  this
• 29:55
  area
• 29:55
  where
• 29:55
  they
• 29:55
  weren't
• 29:55
  supposed
• 29:56
  to
• 29:56
  be.
• 29:56
  So
• 29:57
  with
• 29:57
  that
• 29:58
  said,
• 29:58
  the
• 29:59
  Israelis
• 29:59
  have
• 29:59
  gone
• 30:00
  through,
• 30:00
  largely
• 30:01
  forced
• 30:02
  out,
• 30:02
  the
• 30:02
  Hezbollah
• 30:03
  presence
• 30:03
  in
• 30:03
  that
• 30:04
  region.
• 30:04
  They
• 30:04
  have
• 30:05
  really
• 30:05
  debilitated.
• 30:06
  In
• 30:07
  fact,
• 30:07
  this
• 30:08
  last
• 30:08
  week
• 30:08
  or
• 30:08
  two
• 30:09
  weeks,
• 30:09
  they
• 30:10
  said
• 30:10
  that
• 30:11
  basically
• 30:12
  the
• 30:12
  military
• 30:13
  structure,
• 30:14
  basically
• 30:15
  the
• 30:16
  Israelis
• 30:16
  have
• 30:16
  been
• 30:16
  saying
• 30:17
  that
• 30:17
  Hezbollah
• 30:18
  has
• 30:18
  been
• 30:19
  militarily
• 30:20
  defeated,
• 30:21
  if
• 30:21
  you
• 30:21
  will.
• 30:22
  Now,
• 30:22
  that
• 30:22
  doesn't
• 30:22
  mean
• 30:22
  they've
• 30:23
  stopped
• 30:23
  fighting.
• 30:24
  It
• 30:24
  doesn't
• 30:24
  mean
• 30:24
  they
• 30:24
  don't
• 30:25
  have
• 30:25
  a
• 30:25
  lot
• 30:25
  of
• 30:25
  capabilities.
• 30:25
  They
• 30:26
  still
• 30:26
  fire
• 30:26
  missiles.
• 30:27
  But
• 30:27
  it
• 30:28
  does
• 30:28
  mean
• 30:28
  that
• 30:29
  it's
• 30:30
  been
• 30:30
  dramatically
• 30:31
  degraded
• 30:32
  across
• 30:33
  the
• 30:33
  board,
• 30:33
  degraded
• 30:34
  to
• 30:34
  the
• 30:34
  point
• 30:34
  where
• 30:35
  certainly
• 30:36
  those
• 30:36
  in
• 30:36
  Lebanese
• 30:37
  armed
• 30:37
  forces
• 30:37
  are
• 30:37
  probably
• 30:37
  looking
• 30:38
  at
• 30:38
  this,
• 30:38
  saying
• 30:39
  this
• 30:40
  might
• 30:40
  be
• 30:40
  a
• 30:40
  bit
• 30:40
  of
• 30:40
  a
• 30:40
  strategic
• 30:41
  inflection
• 30:41
  point
• 30:42
  for
• 30:42
  us.
• 30:43
  They
• 30:43
  no
• 30:43
  longer
• 30:44
  outnumber
• 30:44
  us,
• 30:45
  they
• 30:45
  no
• 30:45
  longer
• 30:45
  outgun
• 30:46
  us.
• 30:46
  There
• 30:47
  might
• 30:47
  be
• 30:47
  a
• 30:47
  way
• 30:48
  for
• 30:48
  the
• 30:49
  government
• 30:49
  of
• 30:49
  Lebanon,
• 30:50
  they
• 30:50
  kind
• 30:51
  of
• 30:51
  regain
• 30:51
  control
• 30:52
  over
• 30:53
  this
• 30:54
  areas
• 30:55
  that
• 30:55
  were
• 30:55
  previously
• 30:56
  completely
• 30:57
  controlled
• 30:57
  by
• 30:57
  Hezbollah.
• 30:58
  So
• 30:58
  I'm
• 30:58
  not
• 30:58
  saying
• 30:59
  that
• 30:59
  this,
• 31:00
  if
• 31:01
  you
• 31:01
  will,
• 31:01
  the
• 31:01
  ceasefire
• 31:01
  is
• 31:02
  going
• 31:02
  to
• 31:02
  happen
• 31:02
  right
• 31:02
  away,
• 31:03
  but
• 31:03
  I
• 31:04
  am
• 31:04
  saying
• 31:04
  there's
• 31:04
  been
• 31:04
  a
• 31:04
  lot
• 31:04
  of
• 31:05
  progress
• 31:05
  between
• 31:06
  what
• 31:06
  Hezbollah
• 31:07
  and
• 31:07
  Lebanon
• 31:08
  have
• 31:08
  agreed
• 31:08
  to
• 31:09
  with
• 31:09
  the
• 31:09
  US
• 31:09
  proposal
• 31:10
  and
• 31:10
  what
• 31:11
  Israel
• 31:11
  requires
• 31:12
  in
• 31:13
  order
• 31:13
  to
• 31:13
  maintain
• 31:13
  security
• 31:14
  and
• 31:15
  that
• 31:15
  they
• 31:15
  won't
• 31:16
  be
• 31:16
  targeted
• 31:16
  from
• 31:16
  that
• 31:16
  area
• 31:17
  of
• 31:17
  southern
• 31:17
  Lebanon.
• 31:18
  So
• 31:18
  there's
• 31:18
  a
• 31:18
  lot
• 31:19
  going
• 31:19
  on.
• 31:19
  This
• 31:19
  thing
• 31:20
  is
• 31:20
  kind
• 31:20
  of
• 31:20
  rolling
• 31:21
  out
• 31:21
  across
• 31:21
  the
• 31:22
  board.
• 31:22
  One
• 31:22
  of
• 31:22
  the
• 31:23
  things
• 31:23
  that
• 31:23
  is
• 31:24
  interesting
• 31:24
  is
• 31:24
  that
• 31:25
  Israel
• 31:28
  really
• 31:28
  isn't
• 31:28
  thrilled
• 31:29
  with
• 31:29
  having
• 31:29
  France
• 31:30
  as
• 31:31
  part
• 31:31
  of
• 31:31
  the
• 31:31
  peacekeeping
• 31:32
  force.
• 31:32
  And
• 31:33
  there's
• 31:33
  some
• 31:33
  feeling
• 31:34
  that
• 31:34
  the
• 31:34
  French
• 31:34
  have
• 31:34
  been
• 31:35
  A
• 31:36
  lot
• 31:36
  of
• 31:36
  different
• 31:36
  levels.
• 31:36
  There's
• 31:37
  been
• 31:37
  some
• 31:37
  antagonism
• 31:38
  between
• 31:38
  the
• 31:38
  French
• 31:38
  and
• 31:39
  Israel,
• 31:40
  but
• 31:40
  also
• 31:40
  the
• 31:41
  feeling
• 31:41
  is
• 31:41
  that
• 31:41
  France
• 31:41
  has
• 31:42
  been
• 31:42
  too
• 31:43
  permissive
• 31:43
  in
• 31:44
  the
• 31:44
  past
• 31:44
  of
• 31:45
  letting
• 31:45
  Hezbollah
• 31:46
  do
• 31:46
  things.
• 31:46
  And
• 31:47
  Lebanon
• 31:48
  is
• 31:48
  saying
• 31:49
  absolutely
• 31:49
  no,
• 31:49
  Brits,
• 31:50
  that
• 31:50
  Britain
• 31:51
  can't
• 31:51
  be
• 31:51
  part
• 31:51
  of
• 31:52
  it,
• 31:52
  as
• 31:53
  they
• 31:53
  feel
• 31:53
  that
• 31:53
  Britain
• 31:53
  is
• 31:54
  too
• 31:54
  close
• 31:54
  of
• 31:54
  an
• 31:54
  ally
• 31:55
  to
• 31:55
  Israel.
• 31:56
  So
• 31:56
  I
• 31:56
  find
• 31:56
  that
• 31:57
  rather
• 31:57
  interesting.
• 31:57
  So
• 31:58
  there's
• 31:58
  some
• 31:58
  issues
• 31:58
  there
• 31:59
  that
• 31:59
  still
• 31:59
  have
• 31:59
  to
• 31:59
  be
• 31:59
  kind
• 31:59
  of
• 32:00
  worked
• 32:00
  out
• 32:01
  in
• 32:01
  that
• 32:01
  regard.
• 32:02
  Now,
• 32:03
  what
• 32:04
  can
• 32:04
  we
• 32:04
  take
• 32:04
  from
• 32:05
  all
• 32:05
  of
• 32:05
  this?
• 32:05
  What
• 32:06
  we
• 32:06
  can
• 32:06
  kind
• 32:06
  of
• 32:06
  take
• 32:07
  is
• 32:07
  that
• 32:07
  there
• 32:08
  might
• 32:08
  be
• 32:08
  a
• 32:08
  pathway,
• 32:09
  way
• 32:10
  for
• 32:10
  Lebanon
• 32:11
  to
• 32:11
  kind
• 32:11
  of
• 32:12
  research
• 32:13
  its
• 32:14
  territorial
• 32:15
  integrity
• 32:15
  and
• 32:16
  its
• 32:17
  distinct
• 32:18
  sovereign
• 32:19
  status.
• 32:19
  And
• 32:20
  it
• 32:20
  might
• 32:20
  be
• 32:21
  that
• 32:21
  we
• 32:21
  see
• 32:22
  a
• 32:22
  different
• 32:22
  relationship
• 32:23
  emerging
• 32:24
  between
• 32:24
  Lebanon
• 32:25
  and
• 32:26
  Israel.
• 32:26
  Not
• 32:26
  surprisingly,
• 32:27
  if
• 32:27
  you
• 32:27
  look
• 32:28
  at
• 32:28
  Lebanon,
• 32:28
  they
• 32:28
  go,
• 32:28
  where
• 32:29
  is
• 32:29
  our
• 32:29
  biggest
• 32:29
  threat?
• 32:30
  Certainly
• 32:30
  they
• 32:31
  look
• 32:31
  at
• 32:31
  Syria,
• 32:31
  but
• 32:32
  Syria
• 32:32
  has
• 32:32
  been
• 32:32
  so
• 32:32
  debilitated
• 32:34
  by
• 32:35
  the
• 32:35
  civil
• 32:35
  war
• 32:36
  that
• 32:36
  they're
• 32:36
  not
• 32:36
  the
• 32:36
  threat
• 32:37
  that
• 32:37
  they
• 32:37
  were,
• 32:37
  say,
• 32:37
  10
• 32:38
  or
• 32:38
  20
• 32:38
  years
• 32:38
  ago.
• 32:39
  Israel
• 32:39
  is
• 32:40
  where
• 32:40
  it
• 32:40
  is.
• 32:41
  And
• 32:41
  obviously
• 32:41
  they
• 32:41
  see
• 32:42
  Israel
• 32:42
  as
• 32:43
  a
• 32:43
  significant
• 32:43
  threat.
• 32:44
  And
• 32:44
  they
• 32:44
  say,
• 32:45
  would
• 32:45
  they
• 32:45
  invade?
• 32:46
  Well,
• 32:46
  Israel
• 32:46
  has
• 32:46
  abated
• 32:47
  yet
• 32:47
  again.
• 32:48
  So,
• 32:48
  yes,
• 32:49
  they
• 32:49
  are
• 32:49
  a
• 32:49
  threat
• 32:49
  to
• 32:49
  them.
• 32:50
  But
• 32:51
  with
• 32:51
  that,
• 32:52
  with
• 32:52
  whatever
• 32:52
  comes
• 32:52
  out
• 32:53
  of
• 32:53
  this
• 32:53
  agreement,
• 32:54
  there
• 32:55
  might
• 32:55
  be
• 32:55
  a
• 32:56
  very
• 32:56
  different
• 32:56
  relationship
• 32:57
  that
• 32:57
  emerges.
• 32:58
  And
• 32:58
  I
• 32:58
  would
• 32:58
  point
• 32:59
  to
• 33:02
  there
• 33:02
  is
• 33:02
  an
• 33:02
  area
• 33:03
  of
• 33:03
  exclusive
• 33:04
  economic
• 33:04
  zones
• 33:05
  that
• 33:05
  was
• 33:05
  highly
• 33:05
  disputed
• 33:06
  between
• 33:07
  Lebanon
• 33:08
  and
• 33:08
  Israel,
• 33:08
  and
• 33:09
  it's
• 33:09
  an
• 33:09
  area
• 33:09
  of
• 33:10
  gas
• 33:10
  and
• 33:10
  oil
• 33:10
  production
• 33:12
  that
• 33:12
  has
• 33:12
  gas
• 33:12
  and
• 33:12
  oil
• 33:13
  production
• 33:13
  potential
• 33:13
  in
• 33:14
  that
• 33:14
  area.
• 33:14
  And
• 33:15
  Lebanon
• 33:15
  and
• 33:15
  Israel,
• 33:16
  after
• 33:16
  many
• 33:16
  years
• 33:17
  of,
• 33:17
  let's
• 33:18
  just
• 33:18
  say,
• 33:18
  some
• 33:19
  tough
• 33:19
  words
• 33:19
  back
• 33:20
  and
• 33:20
  forth
• 33:20
  and
• 33:21
  a
• 33:21
  lot
• 33:21
  of
• 33:21
  antagonism
• 33:21
  on
• 33:22
  this
• 33:22
  issue,
• 33:22
  eventually
• 33:23
  worked
• 33:23
  out
• 33:23
  an
• 33:24
  agreement
• 33:25
  on
• 33:25
  how
• 33:25
  this
• 33:25
  is
• 33:25
  going
• 33:26
  to
• 33:26
  work
• 33:26
  out.
• 33:26
  And
• 33:26
  I
• 33:27
  think
• 33:27
  that
• 33:27
  they're
• 33:28
  based
• 33:28
  on
• 33:28
  the
• 33:28
  success
• 33:29
  at
• 33:29
  sea,
• 33:30
  they
• 33:31
  might
• 33:31
  have
• 33:32
  success
• 33:32
  on
• 33:33
  the
• 33:33
  ground
• 33:34
  that
• 33:34
  really
• 33:35
  could
• 33:35
  change
• 33:36
  the
• 33:36
  strategic
• 33:36
  relationship.
• 33:37
  What
• 33:38
  Israel
• 33:38
  would
• 33:38
  probably
• 33:39
  want
• 33:39
  to
• 33:39
  see
• 33:40
  in
• 33:40
  Lebanon
• 33:41
  is
• 33:41
  a
• 33:42
  very
• 33:42
  strong
• 33:44
  Lebanese
• 33:44
  government
• 33:46
  that
• 33:46
  could
• 33:46
  contain
• 33:47
  these
• 33:48
  extremist
• 33:48
  factions
• 33:49
  within
• 33:49
  its
• 33:50
  territory,
• 33:50
  like
• 33:50
  Hezbollah
• 33:51
  and
• 33:52
  certainly
• 33:52
  any
• 33:53
  remaining
• 33:53
  Hamas
• 33:54
  or
• 33:54
  Palestinian
• 33:55
  Islamic
• 33:55
  Jihad
• 33:57
  factions
• 33:57
  that
• 33:57
  pose
• 33:58
  a
• 33:58
  terrorist
• 33:58
  threat
• 33:59
  or
• 33:59
  a
• 33:59
  current
• 34:00
  military
• 34:00
  threat
• 34:00
  or
• 34:00
  military
• 34:01
  threat
• 34:01
  to
• 34:01
  Israel.
• 34:02
  That's
• 34:02
  what
• 34:02
  they
• 34:02
  would
• 34:03
  like
• 34:03
  to
• 34:03
  see.
• 34:04
  They
• 34:04
  would
• 34:04
  like
• 34:04
  to
• 34:05
  see
• 34:05
  probably
• 34:05
  the
• 34:05
  Lebanese
• 34:06
  government
• 34:06
  as
• 34:07
  it
• 34:07
  is
• 34:07
  envisioned,
• 34:08
  as
• 34:08
  it
• 34:08
  is
• 34:09
  basically
• 34:10
  stated
• 34:10
  in
• 34:11
  its
• 34:11
  constitution,
• 34:12
  where
• 34:13
  it
• 34:13
  is
• 34:13
  a
• 34:14
  sort
• 34:14
  of
• 34:14
  a.
• 34:15
  It's
• 34:16
  a
• 34:16
  balance
• 34:16
  between
• 34:18
  ethnicities,
• 34:19
  between
• 34:19
  religions.
• 34:20
  As
• 34:20
  a
• 34:20
  multiethnic,
• 34:21
  you
• 34:22
  know,
• 34:22
  a
• 34:23
  country
• 34:23
  with
• 34:23
  multiple
• 34:24
  religions
• 34:25
  that
• 34:25
  doesn't
• 34:26
  pose
• 34:26
  this
• 34:26
  extremist
• 34:27
  ideology
• 34:27
  that
• 34:28
  wants
• 34:28
  to
• 34:28
  destroy
• 34:28
  Israel.
• 34:29
  That's
• 34:29
  what
• 34:30
  they
• 34:30
  would
• 34:30
  like
• 34:30
  to
• 34:30
  see.
• 34:31
  And
• 34:31
  certainly
• 34:31
  the
• 34:32
  potential
• 34:32
  to
• 34:32
  put
• 34:32
  that
• 34:32
  in
• 34:33
  place
• 34:33
  is
• 34:33
  there.
• 34:34
  Thank
• 34:34
  you
• 34:35
  for
• 34:35
  listening
• 34:35
  to
• 34:35
  another
• 34:36
  podcast
• 34:36
  of
• 34:37
  Strat.
• 34:37
  We
• 34:38
  have
• 34:38
  had
• 34:38
  what
• 34:39
  is
• 34:39
  truly
• 34:40
  a
• 34:40
  strategic
• 34:41
  risk
• 34:41
  assessment
• 34:42
  talk.
• 34:42
  We've
• 34:42
  covered
• 34:43
  a
• 34:43
  big
• 34:43
  chunk
• 34:43
  of
• 34:44
  the
• 34:44
  world.
• 34:44
  We've
• 34:44
  talked
• 34:44
  about
• 34:45
  the
• 34:45
  Middle
• 34:45
  East.
• 34:45
  We've
• 34:46
  talked
• 34:46
  about
• 34:46
  Europe.
• 34:46
  We've
• 34:47
  talked
• 34:47
  about
• 34:48
  global
• 34:48
  implications
• 34:49
  to
• 34:49
  go
• 34:49
  into
• 34:49
  the
• 34:49
  South
• 34:50
  China
• 34:50
  Sea.
• 34:50
  That's
• 34:51
  pretty
• 34:51
  much
• 34:51
  a
• 34:52
  good
• 34:52
  chunk
• 34:52
  of
• 34:52
  the
• 34:52
  world
• 34:53
  right
• 34:53
  there.
• 34:53
  We've
• 34:53
  talked
• 34:53
  about
• 34:54
  the
• 34:54
  US
• 34:55
  and
• 34:56
  literally
• 34:56
  US
• 34:57
  Military
• 34:57
  assets
• 34:58
  that
• 34:59
  could
• 34:59
  potentially
• 34:59
  be
• 35:00
  engaged
• 35:01
  in
• 35:01
  the
• 35:01
  Middle
• 35:01
  east
• 35:02
  being
• 35:02
  launched
• 35:02
  in
• 35:02
  the
• 35:02
  United
• 35:03
  States.
• 35:03
  So
• 35:03
  I,
• 35:04
  I
• 35:04
  will
• 35:04
  tell
• 35:04
  you
• 35:04
  that
• 35:05
  this
• 35:05
  was
• 35:05
  a
• 35:05
  big
• 35:05
  talk,
• 35:06
  a
• 35:06
  lot
• 35:06
  hopefully,
• 35:07
  to
• 35:07
  think
• 35:07
  about
• 35:08
  and
• 35:08
  look
• 35:09
  forward
• 35:09
  to
• 35:09
  our
• 35:09
  next
• 35:10
  Strat
• 35:11
  that
• 35:12
  will
• 35:12
  be
• 35:12
  coming
• 35:12
  out
• 35:12
  next
• 35:13
  week.
• 35:13
  But
• 35:13
  thanks
• 35:14
  again.
• 35:14
  By
• 35:14
  the
• 35:14
  way,
• 35:15
  if
• 35:15
  you
• 35:15
  want
• 35:15
  to
• 35:15
  catch
• 35:15
  me
• 35:16
  more
• 35:16
  frequently,
• 35:17
  not
• 35:18
  every
• 35:18
  day,
• 35:18
  but
• 35:19
  I'm
• 35:19
  on
• 35:19
  very
• 35:20
  regularly
• 35:21
  on
• 35:21
  Fox
• 35:22
  Live
• 35:22
  now,
• 35:22
  their
• 35:22
  digital
• 35:23
  streaming
• 35:23
  service,
• 35:24
  and
• 35:24
  regularly
• 35:25
  on
• 35:25
  News
• 35:25
  Nation
• 35:26
  and
• 35:27
  catch
• 35:27
  me
• 35:27
  on
• 35:27
  those
• 35:28
  two
• 35:28
  networks
• 35:30
  and
• 35:30
  then
• 35:30
  a
• 35:30
  variety
• 35:31
  of
• 35:31
  local
• 35:32
  television
• 35:32
  stations,
• 35:33
  primarily
• 35:34
  on
• 35:34
  the
• 35:34
  west
• 35:34
  coast
• 35:34
  or
• 35:35
  the
• 35:35
  Southwest.
• 35:36
  So
• 35:36
  thanks
• 35:36
  again
• 35:37
  and
• 35:37
  thanks
• 35:38
  for
• 35:38
  listening
• 35:38
  to
• 35:38
  Strat.