Latest / Rice on the Radio / 2026 Fantasy Football Rankings: RB, WR, QB & TE Tiers | Fantasy Football 202

Transcript

2026 Fantasy Football Rankings: RB, WR, QB & TE Tiers | Fantasy Football 202 · Rice on the Radio

0:00
SPEAKER_01: The goal is to make good bets.
0:03
SPEAKER_01: And I think that's especially true early in a draft.
0:07
SPEAKER_01: I don't necessarily think you can win your league with your first round pick, but you can absolutely put yourself in a massive hole with it.
0:15
SPEAKER_01: The real separation, a lot of times it's later.
0:19
SPEAKER_01: Round seven, eight, nine.
0:22
SPEAKER_01: The guy everybody thought was a flex now becomes a wide receiver one.
0:27
SPEAKER_01: I guess there's only one way to find out.
0:28
SPEAKER_01: Let's do it to it, right?
0:31
SPEAKER_00: Extra, extra.
0:32
SPEAKER_00: Keep the light low.
0:34
SPEAKER_00: New York talking with the late night go from the guarding block to the stadium.
0:39
SPEAKER_00: Dev last every what does it mean?
0:42
SPEAKER_00: Right on the radio.
0:43
SPEAKER_00: Coming to your speakers, big things, article, operate, fully with the mess games, that's the giant next on the ride.
0:50
SPEAKER_00: Pull up the chair, let the whole city beside.
0:52
SPEAKER_00: No we are after no sitting on the fence.
0:57
SPEAKER_00: Making it make sense.
0:58
SPEAKER_00: Running down lights.
1:04
SPEAKER_01: Well, hello there, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome back to another episode of Rice on the Radio.
1:11
SPEAKER_01: Last episode, number 80, Fantasy 202, I spent a whole lot of time telling you how I think you should approach a fantasy football draft.
1:22
SPEAKER_01: You know, do the homework, read the room, build your team.
1:27
SPEAKER_01: Don't let ADP boss you around.
1:29
SPEAKER_01: Don't become a prisoner of whatever draft strategy you decided you loved three weeks ago.
1:35
SPEAKER_01: Understand the tiers.
1:36
SPEAKER_01: Understand position of runs.
1:39
SPEAKER_01: Understand what the board and your league mates are telling you.
1:43
SPEAKER_01: But at some point, stop collecting everybody else's opinion and make the pick.
1:50
SPEAKER_01: Well, now I probably have to put my money where my mouth is, right?
1:56
SPEAKER_01: That's usually how things work around here.
1:58
SPEAKER_01: Because it's very easy for me to sit here and say, yeah, build your own tiers.
2:04
SPEAKER_01: Cool.
2:05
SPEAKER_01: What are mine?
2:07
SPEAKER_01: You know, who do I actually trust at running back?
2:10
SPEAKER_01: Where does wide receiver fall off from me?
2:13
SPEAKER_01: How long am I actually willing to wait on a quarterback?
2:16
SPEAKER_01: Are Brock Bowers and Trey McBride really worth paying up for?
2:21
SPEAKER_01: And maybe most importantly, where are the spots in this draft where I look at the board and go, shit, I probably need to get this player right now?
2:32
SPEAKER_01: So that's what we're doing today.
2:34
SPEAKER_01: Running backs, receivers, quarterbacks, tight ends, my tiers, my board, and my reasoning behind it.
2:42
SPEAKER_01: And also, you are completely free to tell me I'm an idiot.
2:46
SPEAKER_01: I don't really care because these are my rankings.
2:50
SPEAKER_01: I've done the research on my end.
2:52
SPEAKER_01: I've looked at the numbers.
2:53
SPEAKER_01: I've watched an absurd amount of preseason football for no reason.
2:57
SPEAKER_01: I've mocked draft until my eyes hurt.
3:00
SPEAKER_01: I can still be wrong.
3:01
SPEAKER_01: That's the whole great thing about this.
3:04
SPEAKER_01: Everybody can.
3:06
SPEAKER_01: So if there is a player that I have in tier three and you think that he's going to lead the league in touchdowns, congratulations.
3:13
SPEAKER_01: Go get him.
3:14
SPEAKER_01: That's the entire point of what I talked about last episode.
3:18
SPEAKER_01: My job isn't to tell you who you're allowed to draft.
3:22
SPEAKER_01: My job is to tell you why I see the board the way that I see it.
3:27
SPEAKER_01: And these rankings account for everything.
3:30
SPEAKER_01: The talent, opportunity, the offense they're in, the quarterback the player might have, the health, coaching, all of it.
3:39
SPEAKER_01: So there isn't going to be a separate list where I go, well, listen, talent-wise, Christian McCaffrey is here, but because of his health, he's here.
3:48
SPEAKER_01: No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no.
3:50
SPEAKER_01: Where he is is because of the health.
3:53
SPEAKER_01: That's the rankings.
3:55
SPEAKER_01: And one more thing before we start, these are the rankings today, August 25th.
4:02
SPEAKER_01: This weekend is a national draft weekend for most people, but it's the rankings today.
4:08
SPEAKER_01: Anything can happen.
4:09
SPEAKER_01: I cannot stress that enough.
4:10
SPEAKER_01: Pretty much while I was writing up this episode, Janti hurt his ankle.
4:14
SPEAKER_01: Brees Hall is looking good, not looking good.
4:17
SPEAKER_01: And literally, literally today, Jamar Chase landed on his knee in a way that made the entire fantasy football internet collectively shit itself for about an hour.
4:26
SPEAKER_01: That's football.
4:28
SPEAKER_01: This board is alive.
4:31
SPEAKER_01: So we're ranking what we know right now.
4:34
SPEAKER_01: Alright, enough with the disclaimers.
4:36
SPEAKER_01: Let's start with the position that everybody wants to argue about.
4:39
SPEAKER_01: And that would be running back.
4:41
SPEAKER_01: So the way that I'm going to do this, I'm going to start with two guys that I think are pretty clearly separated from everybody else.
4:50
SPEAKER_01: And that's going to be like my S tier.
4:52
SPEAKER_01: That's kind of going to be the theme throughout all these.
4:54
SPEAKER_01: It's going to be like the S tier and then tier one, two, and three.
4:58
SPEAKER_01: My best of the best is obvious.
4:59
SPEAKER_01: It's it's Bijan and Jameer Gibbs, one and two, right?
5:03
SPEAKER_01: And personally, I've got Bichon number one.
5:07
SPEAKER_01: I don't actually know that this is a talent argument.
5:11
SPEAKER_01: I'm not sitting here telling you that Bijan is unquestionably a better running back than Jameer Gibbs.
5:16
SPEAKER_01: They're both ridiculous.
5:18
SPEAKER_01: For me, it comes down to certainty.
5:22
SPEAKER_01: I've already seen Bichon be the guy.
5:25
SPEAKER_01: I've seen him handle the rushing work.
5:27
SPEAKER_01: I've seen him catch the ball out of the backfield.
5:29
SPEAKER_01: I've seen him stay on the field.
5:30
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, look, Tyler Algier got his touches here and there, but there really isn't much mystery about whose backfield it is.
5:38
SPEAKER_01: Whereas with Gibbs, for basically his entire NFL career, we've had the Sonic and Knuckles situation, right?
5:45
SPEAKER_01: Gibbs and David Montgomery.
5:47
SPEAKER_01: And it worked beautifully.
5:49
SPEAKER_01: Now, now we're getting to the version where it's basically, okay, Jameer, here's the whole thing.
5:55
SPEAKER_01: There's no more rolling bowl of knives that they used to call David Montgomery.
6:00
SPEAKER_01: And look, maybe he handles it and puts up one of those like LT, completely absurd fantasy seasons.
6:07
SPEAKER_01: It wouldn't surprise me at all, to be honest.
6:10
SPEAKER_01: I just have that one little tiny additional question about Gibbs that I don't really have about Bichon.
6:17
SPEAKER_01: And I want to see him be able to handle the full workload for the full season.
6:22
SPEAKER_01: So S tier, Bijan 1, Gibbs 2.
6:26
SPEAKER_01: You can't go wrong with either one.
6:28
SPEAKER_01: You should be blessed to have both of them, to be honest with you.
6:30
SPEAKER_01: Or either one, excuse me.
6:32
SPEAKER_01: So running back tier one.
6:35
SPEAKER_01: Short list, but an important list.
6:38
SPEAKER_01: Jonathan Taylor, James Cook, Christian McCaffrey.
6:42
SPEAKER_01: In that order.
6:43
SPEAKER_01: And the Taylor versus Cook argument was probably one of the harder debates I had putting this together.
6:51
SPEAKER_01: Because look, James Cook has almost everything that I want in a running back one.
6:56
SPEAKER_01: Fantastic offense.
6:57
SPEAKER_01: Josh Allen, he's in his prime, he's been productive, and he's proven he's durable.
7:02
SPEAKER_01: And Buffalo should once again be one of the best offenses in football.
7:06
SPEAKER_01: So the only thing that gives me any pause is Buffalo has more places to put the football down.
7:12
SPEAKER_01: DJ Moore is there.
7:14
SPEAKER_01: Dalton Kincaid is there.
7:15
SPEAKER_01: Khalil Shakir, whatever you think about him, he's still there.
7:18
SPEAKER_01: There are mouths to feed.
7:21
SPEAKER_01: And look, Cook is still gonna get his.
7:23
SPEAKER_01: I'm not worried about Cook disappearing.
7:26
SPEAKER_01: I just think Jonathan Taylor has a type of volume ceiling that almost doesn't exist with running backs anymore.
7:34
SPEAKER_01: If he is healthy and that Colts offense can give him somewhat competent quarterback play, there are games where he might just get fed until the defense begs them to stop doing that.
7:46
SPEAKER_01: And I'm gonna keep going back to that.
7:49
SPEAKER_01: Volume, touches, goal line work.
7:51
SPEAKER_01: There's a path where Jonathan Taylor has one of those seasons where you look up and say, Jesus Christ, the guy touched the football almost 400 times.
7:59
SPEAKER_01: There aren't many players left where that even feels possible.
8:03
SPEAKER_01: So Taylor, three, Cook four, and then Christian McCaffrey five.
8:10
SPEAKER_01: But that is the end of tier one.
8:12
SPEAKER_01: And listen, I know how insane that sounds when you say Christian McCaffrey is the fifth best running back in the league.
8:18
SPEAKER_01: If you could sit me down right now and guarantee me that Christian McCaffrey plays 17 healthy games, I might take him first.
8:25
SPEAKER_01: And I'm dead serious about that.
8:27
SPEAKER_01: I still think a healthy Christian McCaffrey is that damn good.
8:32
SPEAKER_01: But I don't get to rank the hypothetical healthy player.
8:36
SPEAKER_01: I have to rank the bet.
8:38
SPEAKER_01: And the bet comes with risk.
8:40
SPEAKER_01: Here's one number that genuinely got my attention going through all this.
8:43
SPEAKER_01: A good stat poll I found.
8:45
SPEAKER_01: Christian McCaffrey had 450 touches last year.
8:49
SPEAKER_01: That's that ceiling volume we're talking about, right?
8:53
SPEAKER_01: Over the last 13 years, only one running back coming off a 400 plus touches season finishes the top five fantasy running back the next year.
9:05
SPEAKER_01: One in 13 years.
9:09
SPEAKER_01: And that's not me saying CMC is doomed either.
9:12
SPEAKER_01: Christian McCaffrey has made a career out of doing things normal players aren't supposed to be able to do.
9:18
SPEAKER_01: But when it comes to these three, if I'm splitting hairs amongst first round running backs, I'm allowed to care about that.
9:24
SPEAKER_01: So that's why he's at five.
9:26
SPEAKER_01: That's why he rounds out the end of tier one.
9:28
SPEAKER_01: Not because I don't believe in the player, but because there are four other bets that I feel a little bit better about.
9:35
SPEAKER_01: So if a running back tier two, it gets a little bit bigger.
9:39
SPEAKER_01: I've got Devin A.
9:41
SPEAKER_01: Chain, Achan, A-Chain, no, A-Chain, I think.
9:46
SPEAKER_01: Ash and Jante, Derek Henry, Saquon Barkley, Chase Brown, O'Marion Hampton, and Kenneth Walker, the third.
9:56
SPEAKER_01: They're kind of two halves to this tier two.
9:59
SPEAKER_01: Also, the first four are knocking on the door of tier one, in my opinion.
10:03
SPEAKER_01: A-Chan at six, Miami is fascinating to me because with Malik Willis there now, I think there's a very real world where a huge portion of that offense just gets funneled through him.
10:15
SPEAKER_01: You know, running the ball, screens, check downs, the play breaks down, you don't know what to do, get him in space, make life easier on this quarterback that we don't even know if he could play.
10:24
SPEAKER_01: And obviously, if you're playing full PPR, I like him even more.
10:28
SPEAKER_01: Because six catches don't have to be six designed downfield routes.
10:32
SPEAKER_01: Sometimes six catches are just, oh shit, nobody's open.
10:35
SPEAKER_01: Here you go, Devon.
10:36
SPEAKER_01: Deal, you deal with it.
10:37
SPEAKER_01: I don't want this anymore.
10:38
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I'll take those points if I own him.
10:41
SPEAKER_01: Then there's Janty.
10:43
SPEAKER_01: And Janty is tough for me, man.
10:45
SPEAKER_01: Janty was tier one for me before the ankle.
10:48
SPEAKER_01: That's how much I like him this year.
10:51
SPEAKER_01: And then when the injury happened, the video and the immediate reports were kind of scary, man.
10:56
SPEAKER_01: He couldn't put weight on the leg.
10:58
SPEAKER_01: Everybody's mind immediately went to the worst possible place.
11:02
SPEAKER_01: Thankfully, that's not where we ended up.
11:05
SPEAKER_01: Right now, it's believed to be a sprained, a sprained ankle.
11:10
SPEAKER_01: It's not expected to be a long-term injury, but Clint Klubiak said that this week that Janti is on the mend.
11:18
SPEAKER_01: Whatever that means, whatever you want to take for that, that might be just bullshit coach speak.
11:22
SPEAKER_01: Because we still don't have an exact return timetable.
11:24
SPEAKER_01: So I'm not pretending that it doesn't matter.
11:27
SPEAKER_01: But running back, ankle, beginning of the year, yeah.
11:33
SPEAKER_01: I'm moving him down.
11:34
SPEAKER_01: Not a lot.
11:35
SPEAKER_01: I'm not panicking, but I don't know, I'm moving him down a little bit.
11:41
SPEAKER_01: And again, I love Janti because before the injury, the better quarterback environment, the better offensive line, you got Clint Kubiak.
11:48
SPEAKER_01: Brock Bowser's gonna be healthy.
11:49
SPEAKER_01: Brock Bowers is probably gonna be healthy for the whole season, hopefully.
11:53
SPEAKER_01: And the Raiders have every reason in the world to make this guy the centerpiece of their offense.
11:57
SPEAKER_01: A lot of people felt like he was a bust last year, but that's because a lot of people were drafting him at the end of the first round last year.
12:04
SPEAKER_01: They were expecting him to be the jante that they had in Boise State when, you know, rushing for 300 yards a game and two touchdowns.
12:12
SPEAKER_01: One, you're not going to do that in the NFL.
12:14
SPEAKER_01: And two, if Chip Kelly is running your offense, along with Pete Carroll and his son's coaching things, and the offensive line for the Raiders was ranked 32nd last year, and the only reason they were ranked 32nd last year is because there's only 32 teams in the NFL.
12:28
SPEAKER_01: Otherwise, that offensive line ranked lower than probably some high-level college teams.
12:33
SPEAKER_01: Anyway, from there, I've got Derrick Henry over Saquon.
12:38
SPEAKER_01: And I know somebody's gonna yell at me about that.
12:40
SPEAKER_01: You know, look, I just trust Derrick Henry.
12:41
SPEAKER_01: I don't know what else to tell you.
12:44
SPEAKER_01: At this point, the man has completely destroyed whatever normal aging curve I'm supposed to use for running backs.
12:51
SPEAKER_01: I mean, he's like Frank Gore if somebody took Frank Gore and made him the size of the refrigerator.
12:56
SPEAKER_01: You know, I I know eventually this ends, everything ends, but Derrick Henry has given me less reason to believe it's ending right now than basically any running back his age has any business giving me.
13:08
SPEAKER_01: Saquon is still great.
13:10
SPEAKER_01: He's still in the same tier, but I think we have probably already seen the absolute peak of the Eagles Saquon marriage.
13:17
SPEAKER_01: That doesn't mean he's bad.
13:18
SPEAKER_01: We're just talking about running back nine off the board.
13:21
SPEAKER_01: And again, I'm just splitting hairs among really, really good players.
13:26
SPEAKER_01: Then the lower half of uh of this tier is Chase Brown, O'Marian Hampton, and Kenneth Walker.
13:32
SPEAKER_01: Chase Brown is one of those players I think people might still somehow underestimate because he isn't the sexiest name sitting on your draft board, but he was fantastic last year.
13:41
SPEAKER_01: And more importantly, everything around him makes sense.
13:44
SPEAKER_01: Healthy Joe Burrow, great passing game, an improved line.
13:48
SPEAKER_01: Not much behind him that makes me think he's losing the job either.
13:52
SPEAKER_01: Samaj P.
13:53
SPEAKER_01: Ryan, I mean, come on now.
13:55
SPEAKER_01: And because Burrow and that offense are so dangerous, defenses can't just say, oh, we're stopping Chase Brown today.
14:01
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, no, cool, because then Jamar Chase kills you, or T.
14:04
SPEAKER_01: Higgins kills you.
14:05
SPEAKER_01: So Brown becoming the kind of RB2 that can turn something into much bigger is a player that I definitely want on my team.
14:12
SPEAKER_01: O'Marion Hampton, I'm kind of betting on the Chargers, just like every other pundit is betting on the Chargers with Mike McDaniel getting over there, but Justin Herbert taking a step forward, you hope.
14:23
SPEAKER_01: Lad McConkey taking that third-year receiver step, Jim Harbaugh still wants to play a physical game of football.
14:28
SPEAKER_01: I think the entire environment can get better.
14:32
SPEAKER_01: And for Kenneth Walker in Kansas City, this one's fun, right?
14:36
SPEAKER_01: Because we spent years asking, what if Kenneth Walker ever gets the whole big picture?
14:42
SPEAKER_01: Well, here you go.
14:44
SPEAKER_01: You got Patrick Mahomes and you got Andy Reed.
14:47
SPEAKER_01: And, you know, if you know anything about football, Reed has a pretty long history of knowing what to do when you give him a legitimate three-down running back, not just Isaiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt split in time.
14:57
SPEAKER_01: Can I interest you in Brian Westbrook or LaShawn McCoy, or even as far back as Deuce Staley?
15:03
SPEAKER_01: You know, if Kenneth Walker is healthy and Andy Reid's decide, Andy Reed decides, yeah, you're my guy, the ranking might look way too low in October.
15:13
SPEAKER_01: Uh to round out tier three, same thing, kind of like a two-tier system-ish.
15:20
SPEAKER_01: Kyron Williams, Javante Williams, Brees Hall, Travis Atien, Travis Achan, whatever you want to call him, whatever he's going by now, Jeremiah Love, Josh Jacobs, DeAndre Swift, and then David Montgomery.
15:33
SPEAKER_01: Kyron kicks it off.
15:34
SPEAKER_01: He's almost tier two for me.
15:36
SPEAKER_01: He's proven that he can carry the ball, he can catch it, he can pass protect.
15:39
SPEAKER_01: Sean McVeigh trusts him, that's for sure.
15:42
SPEAKER_01: I mean, the only thing sitting there is Blake Corham, who showed enough last year that I don't think we can pretend Kyron is going to get every meaningful touch, but Kyron is still somebody I can live with as my running back one.
15:54
SPEAKER_01: Javante Williams, I'm bullish on.
15:58
SPEAKER_01: You know, Dallas has CD Lamb.
16:00
SPEAKER_01: They have George Pickens.
16:03
SPEAKER_01: If those two are stressed in the secondary, I don't think you're getting eight-man boxes every play against Javante.
16:09
SPEAKER_01: And if Dallas is actually good in playing with the lead, which they might be because of that defense revamp, now you got fourth quarter carries too.
16:18
SPEAKER_01: There are a bunch of ways for him to get his work.
16:21
SPEAKER_01: As for Brees Hall, well, you know, look, I'm a Jet fan, you guys know that.
16:25
SPEAKER_01: But unbiased opinion, how can you not believe in Brees Hall's talent?
16:30
SPEAKER_01: And the Jets have invested a ton into fixing that offensive line.
16:34
SPEAKER_01: Geno Smith doesn't need to be Patrick Mahomes.
16:37
SPEAKER_01: He just needs to be competent enough that the defense cannot put 11 guys in a box and basically dare the Jets to throw.
16:44
SPEAKER_01: That was the problem last year.
16:45
SPEAKER_01: Justin Fields couldn't even complete a simple out route.
16:47
SPEAKER_01: Garrett Wilson getting balls from Gino with Adonai Mitchell, with maybe Omar Cooper, with Kenyon Sadiq.
16:55
SPEAKER_01: All that matters for Brees.
16:56
SPEAKER_01: A little bit of competent quarterback play and an offensive line to keep him up.
17:02
SPEAKER_01: I think he might be in a really good spot here.
17:05
SPEAKER_01: Now I do have to add the injury note because, you know, full disclosure, Brees is currently dealing with a groin strain, and Aaron Glenn said he's expected to miss about two or three weeks, but expects him to be back and ready for week one.
17:19
SPEAKER_01: So it's something to keep an eye on, but I'm not going to be moving him dramatically back because of something that the team currently expects him to be back for for games that actually count.
17:31
SPEAKER_01: You know, he got hurt and they said, okay, you're good.
17:33
SPEAKER_01: You're not playing preseason.
17:35
SPEAKER_01: Not that big of a deal.
17:36
SPEAKER_01: Still a little check marks, checkbox to mark, but you know, Brees is 15.
17:42
SPEAKER_01: And this is where something changes for me because if I don't have my RB1 yet, and Kyron, Javante, Brees are disappearing, now's around the time when I'm starting to pay attention.
17:56
SPEAKER_01: I'm not panicking, but I am paying attention.
18:00
SPEAKER_01: We'll come back to that in just a bit.
18:02
SPEAKER_01: ETN is next.
18:03
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, he's in New Orleans now.
18:05
SPEAKER_01: Kamara's heard he's got an MCL spring that's going to keep him out for at least a couple weeks, so you're looking at maybe week four.
18:11
SPEAKER_01: So right away, there's big opportunity.
18:13
SPEAKER_01: Now, do I think that means ETN automatically owns the entire backfield for 17 games?
18:19
SPEAKER_01: No.
18:19
SPEAKER_01: But right now, there's a workload argument.
18:23
SPEAKER_01: Jeremiah Love is almost a purely talent bet for me.
18:29
SPEAKER_01: Look, Arizona invested enormous draft capital in him.
18:33
SPEAKER_01: And the player is freakishly talented.
18:36
SPEAKER_01: The offense has more questions that need to be asked or answered.
18:41
SPEAKER_01: And now he's got a question.
18:42
SPEAKER_01: He's got the ankle.
18:43
SPEAKER_01: It's a high ankle sprain, too.
18:45
SPEAKER_01: It's not like Ash and Janty.
18:46
SPEAKER_01: It's not a low or whatever they're calling it.
18:48
SPEAKER_01: It's a high ankle sprain.
18:50
SPEAKER_01: That being said, sometimes I'm willing to bet that a really, really talented runner back will just be able to figure it out, you know?
18:57
SPEAKER_01: And then we got Josh Jacobs.
19:03
SPEAKER_01: Something about Josh Jacobs, I don't know what it is.
19:06
SPEAKER_01: I know he's a good player.
19:07
SPEAKER_01: I, you know, he was good with the Raiders.
19:11
SPEAKER_01: He's getting a little bit long in the tooth.
19:13
SPEAKER_01: Something about how he is on the Packers, it just I don't know.
19:18
SPEAKER_01: It doesn't do it for me.
19:19
SPEAKER_01: It's probably it's stupid to say.
19:22
SPEAKER_01: It's probably where I throw my entire ranking methodology directly into the garbage.
19:26
SPEAKER_01: But I know.
19:28
SPEAKER_01: Look, I've looked at them.
19:29
SPEAKER_01: I I don't, you don't have to send them to me.
19:31
SPEAKER_01: You I understand the argument on why he is good, but for some reason, I still can't get there.
19:37
SPEAKER_01: I don't know what it is.
19:38
SPEAKER_01: Maybe it's the mileage, maybe it's the efficiency, maybe it's me just being a stubborn ass.
19:44
SPEAKER_01: But if I'm sitting there and Josh Jacobs is the obvious pick, I'll take him.
19:48
SPEAKER_01: I'm not saying he's under draft, undraftable, but I'm saying there are probably 17 running backs where I look at their name and go, yeah, yeah, yeah.
19:59
SPEAKER_01: I want me some of that.
20:01
SPEAKER_01: And then for whatever reason, I get to Jacobs and I go, eh, I don't know, I'm good.
20:08
SPEAKER_01: Sometimes your rankings are allowed to include the fact that you're the one drafting the team, and there's just a guy that you don't want.
20:16
SPEAKER_01: Then we get to Swift and David Montgomery to finish it.
20:19
SPEAKER_01: Swift isn't an offense I think I can score a lot of points with, but Kyle Manunga is there.
20:26
SPEAKER_01: Ben Johnson will use whoever is running well, and he has proven that.
20:30
SPEAKER_01: Swift has had a little bit of health questions and concerns throughout his career.
20:35
SPEAKER_01: Great player, good player.
20:37
SPEAKER_01: I just don't want to be completely dependent on him, you know?
20:41
SPEAKER_01: And Montgomery in Houston is similar.
20:44
SPEAKER_01: Physical runner, rolling ball on knives, like I said.
20:48
SPEAKER_01: He's gonna score touchdowns, he's gonna get work.
20:51
SPEAKER_01: But Woody Marks is gonna be able to handle that passing situation, those passing situations.
20:56
SPEAKER_01: And I think there's enough committee here that I kind of prefer Montgomery as my RB2.
21:04
SPEAKER_01: And that is the end of tier three.
21:08
SPEAKER_01: So here's the actual draft takeaway.
21:11
SPEAKER_01: I don't have to take a running back immediately.
21:14
SPEAKER_01: I'm not saying walking into every draft, going running back, running back, or it's a bad draft.
21:20
SPEAKER_01: But once we start getting into Kyron Williams and Javante Williams and Brees Hall, if I still don't have an RB1, I'm gonna be start looking, I'm gonna start looking at the board a little bit differently.
21:33
SPEAKER_01: Because if I keep passing on running backs and suddenly I'm asking Quinshawn Judkins or Cam Scadabo or Jalen Warren to be the guy carrying my running back room, I better have built something pretty fucking special elsewhere.
21:49
SPEAKER_01: And yes, if I'm sitting there and some ridiculous receiver, you know, Nico Collins, 20 picks past where I thought he'd go, thank you.
21:56
SPEAKER_01: Take the gift.
21:57
SPEAKER_01: Don't worry about it, don't even think about it.
21:59
SPEAKER_01: Don't be Stupid.
22:01
SPEAKER_01: But generally, I would rather lock down the running back volume because I still think it's easier to find wide receivers later that I can trust than it is to just manufacture a three-down running back after everybody else took them.
22:15
SPEAKER_01: That's my running back Cliff.
22:17
SPEAKER_01: Once the Kyron, Javante, Brees neighborhood starts disappearing, it's time for me to get one.
22:24
SPEAKER_01: And that rolls me right into wide receiver.
22:27
SPEAKER_01: As kind of per usual, wide receiver is probably the deepest position in fantasy football, but also the most volatile.
22:38
SPEAKER_01: I still think people take that statement a stretch too far.
22:44
SPEAKER_01: Because deep down, deep does not mean elite.
22:49
SPEAKER_01: You know?
22:50
SPEAKER_01: There are a shit ton of wide receivers that I like this year, but there are not a shit ton of Jamar Chase's.
22:57
SPEAKER_01: And again, speaking of Jamar Chase, my lead tier is one player, Jamar Chase.
23:03
SPEAKER_01: Number one standing alone.
23:06
SPEAKER_01: Because fantasy football apparently heard me call him my safest receiver and decided to test me.
23:13
SPEAKER_01: Yes, the news that happened today at Bengals practice, it looked awful.
23:18
SPEAKER_01: If you miss it, Chase went up for a deep ball, landed awkwardly on his left leg and hyperextended his knee.
23:26
SPEAKER_01: For a few minutes, you're watching a video and you're going, oh fuck, man.
23:32
SPEAKER_01: Because that's the entire nightmare.
23:34
SPEAKER_01: We're sitting here making rankings.
23:36
SPEAKER_01: We're arguing about Jamar Chase versus Puka, and one weird landing can make the entire conversation totally irrelevant.
23:44
SPEAKER_01: The good news is Chase walked off under his own power, stayed around practice, and afterward basically told everybody to relax.
23:51
SPEAKER_01: He he called it a little hyperextension and said if he had it happen to him during a game that he would check back in and he would play through it.
24:01
SPEAKER_01: So right now, as of me recording this, I'm not changing anything.
24:05
SPEAKER_01: Jamar Chase is still wide receiver one.
24:08
SPEAKER_01: But what better example could I possibly give you for what I said at the beginning?
24:15
SPEAKER_01: These rankings are snapshots.
24:18
SPEAKER_01: Football doesn't give a shit that I finish my spreadsheet already.
24:22
SPEAKER_01: Alright.
24:23
SPEAKER_01: Crisis averted.
24:24
SPEAKER_01: Awesome.
24:25
SPEAKER_01: Hopefully.
24:26
SPEAKER_01: Back to Chase.
24:28
SPEAKER_01: I don't need to overcomplicate why he's number one.
24:31
SPEAKER_01: Joe Burrow, Jamar Chase.
24:33
SPEAKER_01: They've been doing this since LSU.
24:35
SPEAKER_01: The target volume is insane.
24:38
SPEAKER_01: The offense is designed around him.
24:40
SPEAKER_01: He can beat you anywhere and everywhere.
24:42
SPEAKER_01: And barring something changing from today's scare, there isn't a football question I need answered for him.
24:48
SPEAKER_01: So Chase stands alone.
24:50
SPEAKER_01: Now, the wide receiver one tier, Puka, JSN, Amunra, CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson.
24:59
SPEAKER_01: And the tier ends with Jefferson.
25:02
SPEAKER_01: Puka number two.
25:03
SPEAKER_01: Yes, Devontae is still there.
25:05
SPEAKER_01: I don't care.
25:06
SPEAKER_01: We've already seen Puka earn targets with other good players on the field.
25:10
SPEAKER_01: He gets open.
25:11
SPEAKER_01: He's fantastic after the catch.
25:13
SPEAKER_01: Stafford trusts him.
25:14
SPEAKER_01: Sean McVay knows how to get the football into his hands.
25:18
SPEAKER_01: I'm not really afraid of Devontae scoring another 14 touchdowns like he did last year.
25:23
SPEAKER_01: I got JSN at three.
25:25
SPEAKER_01: We spent years waiting for Jackson Smith and Jobo to become the player everybody thought he could be.
25:30
SPEAKER_01: Well, he became him.
25:31
SPEAKER_01: He led the league in receiving yards last year.
25:34
SPEAKER_01: Huge target share.
25:36
SPEAKER_01: Same thing.
25:36
SPEAKER_01: Darnold, trust him.
25:38
SPEAKER_01: We're not drafting a breakout player anymore.
25:40
SPEAKER_01: We're drafting a player who already broke out and we're asking, can he do it again and can he be even better?
25:46
SPEAKER_01: Amun Ra at four might be the safest receiver on this list.
25:50
SPEAKER_01: I've always thought of Amun Ra as kind of an Anquan Bolden type player in the sense that everybody in the building knows exactly what is happening.
26:00
SPEAKER_01: Third and eight, big moment in the game.
26:02
SPEAKER_01: Who does Jared Goff want?
26:04
SPEAKER_01: You know.
26:04
SPEAKER_01: The defense knows.
26:05
SPEAKER_01: The guy selling hot dogs knows.
26:07
SPEAKER_01: And Amun Ra still catches the goddamn football.
26:11
SPEAKER_01: That's a valuable skill that you cannot replicate anywhere else.
26:15
SPEAKER_01: Guys with strong hands when the whole world knows they're going to him.
26:19
SPEAKER_01: I'll take that player on my team.
26:21
SPEAKER_01: Then we got CD and Justin Jefferson.
26:24
SPEAKER_01: And it's very close between the two.
26:26
SPEAKER_01: CD gets a weird benefit from George Pickens being there.
26:30
SPEAKER_01: Yes, Pickens probably steals a bunch of targets, but defenses can't sell the entire secondary to stop CD Lamb anymore.
26:38
SPEAKER_01: So it's kind of pick your poison.
26:40
SPEAKER_01: Do I shade everything towards Lamb?
26:43
SPEAKER_01: Fine.
26:43
SPEAKER_01: Pickens gets one-on-one.
26:45
SPEAKER_01: Start giving stuff up to Pickens.
26:46
SPEAKER_01: Well, good luck covering CD.
26:49
SPEAKER_01: And as far as Justin Jefferson, well, I mean, look, Jefferson is Jefferson.
26:53
SPEAKER_01: He has produced through a quarterback carousel that would make most receivers file a grievance with the league.
26:58
SPEAKER_01: Now it's Kyler Murray.
27:01
SPEAKER_01: Do I know exactly what that looks like?
27:04
SPEAKER_01: No.
27:05
SPEAKER_01: But if there is one receiver where I trust him to figure out a broken play, uncover when a quarterback starts moving around, which Kyler loves to do, Justin Jefferson is probably pretty high on that list.
27:18
SPEAKER_01: And that's the end of tier one for me.
27:20
SPEAKER_01: Now, wide receiver tier two, Drake London, Nico Collins, AJ Brown, George Pickens, Chris Olave, Malik Neighbors, Rasheed Rice.
27:31
SPEAKER_01: Drake London kicks us off here, and I will fully admit part of my hesitation with Drake London is a little bit irrational.
27:39
SPEAKER_01: He's got a left-handed quarterback.
27:41
SPEAKER_01: And oh, yeah, the backup is also a left-handed quarterback.
27:45
SPEAKER_01: I don't know why it's a thing, but it is a thing.
27:47
SPEAKER_01: My brain sees a left-handed quarterback, and the football coming out backwards, and it immediately goes, Yeah, I don't like how that looks.
27:53
SPEAKER_01: And look, I don't know.
27:54
SPEAKER_01: It's not, it's not analytics.
27:55
SPEAKER_01: It's not, it's, I don't know.
27:58
SPEAKER_01: It just you know?
28:00
SPEAKER_01: But anyway, Tua is there, Tua Tungovelo is there while Penix recovers.
28:06
SPEAKER_01: London is a big possession receiver.
28:08
SPEAKER_01: He's he's huge.
28:10
SPEAKER_01: And Tua has historically been associated with getting the ball out quickly and feeding speed guys.
28:15
SPEAKER_01: Tyree Kill, Jalen Waddell, etc.
28:18
SPEAKER_01: etc.
28:18
SPEAKER_01: Right.
28:19
SPEAKER_01: So I'm interested to see how Tua is going to perform with a six foot five, go up, jump out of the uh jump out of the gym possession kind of receiver.
28:32
SPEAKER_01: You know?
28:33
SPEAKER_01: That's why London is my wide receiver seven.
28:36
SPEAKER_01: I obviously like him, I just don't know.
28:38
SPEAKER_01: You know, but we'll see.
28:40
SPEAKER_01: Right?
28:41
SPEAKER_01: Nico Collins, uh, this is where I think a couple statistics matter.
28:46
SPEAKER_01: He doesn't need 120 catches to destroy you.
28:50
SPEAKER_01: You know, he was over 1,100 yards last year despite only catching 70 balls.
28:56
SPEAKER_01: That is insane if you really break it down.
29:00
SPEAKER_01: And now Houston has lost some target competition.
29:04
SPEAKER_01: So if I already know Nico Collins can do damage relatively modestly low catches, what happens if the volume goes up for him?
29:13
SPEAKER_01: That's a bet I'm willing to take.
29:16
SPEAKER_01: AJ Brown is in New England.
29:18
SPEAKER_01: This one's pretty simple.
29:19
SPEAKER_01: Drake May needed an alpha receiver.
29:21
SPEAKER_01: Congratulations.
29:22
SPEAKER_01: Here is AJ Brown.
29:23
SPEAKER_01: He knows Mike Vrabel.
29:24
SPEAKER_01: He is physical, he wins downfield, he wins through contact.
29:28
SPEAKER_01: Now May gets to throw to a receiver who can erase some mistakes for him.
29:32
SPEAKER_01: Not that he really had too many last year.
29:34
SPEAKER_01: I like that a lot.
29:35
SPEAKER_01: Pickens, uh, great year last year.
29:38
SPEAKER_01: And I actually think CD helps him just like I have Pickens helping CD.
29:43
SPEAKER_01: You know, there's there's enough Dallas passing volume to support two good receivers.
29:47
SPEAKER_01: The defense can't double everybody, like I said before.
29:50
SPEAKER_01: So if you tilt everything at one guy, the other guy is going to have a day.
29:53
SPEAKER_01: Chris Olave, I know how talented he is.
29:57
SPEAKER_01: I also know the injury history.
29:59
SPEAKER_01: And now we're asking Tyler Shuck to take another step in year or two when he's only got about seven games under his belt.
30:05
SPEAKER_01: I'm not saying it couldn't happen.
30:07
SPEAKER_01: Olave has already shown that he can produce no matter who's there.
30:11
SPEAKER_01: But the combination of quarterback uncertainty plus the durability is why he's not in tier one.
30:17
SPEAKER_01: Malik Neighbors is probably the biggest, if healthy, problem on the receiver board because healthy Malik Neighbors, talent-wise, I could put him in the tier above and sleep perfectly fine, to be totally honest with you.
30:31
SPEAKER_01: But we're coming off the ACL, then we're coming off the additional knee cleanup.
30:35
SPEAKER_01: So I have to I have to care a little bit.
30:37
SPEAKER_01: And the good news is we've gotten another meaningful step forward this week.
30:41
SPEAKER_01: Neighbors shed the non-contact jersey, so he is doing more teamwork, and Harbaugh said that he was moving around great.
30:47
SPEAKER_01: And ever since that first like clip from camp of him cutting, people have shot him up the draft boards.
30:54
SPEAKER_01: But a good August practice isn't the same thing as me pretending the ACL never happened.
30:59
SPEAKER_01: So I leave the talent where it is I respect, and I leave the risk it is where I respect.
31:04
SPEAKER_01: Tier two.
31:05
SPEAKER_01: Rasheed Rice closes the tier.
31:08
SPEAKER_01: If we're strictly talking football, Mahomes, Reed, route volume, target opportunity, I love it.
31:16
SPEAKER_01: The problem is everything that happens when he's not simply playing football is a mess.
31:23
SPEAKER_01: The availability, the off-field uncertainty, the physical questions.
31:27
SPEAKER_01: And in the second round, third round, wherever that price settles, I have to care about all of that.
31:33
SPEAKER_01: Again, rank the bet, not the dream scenario, you know?
31:39
SPEAKER_01: So now we get on to wide receiver tier three.
31:41
SPEAKER_01: And tier three is where the depth of receiver really starts shining, really starts showing up.
31:46
SPEAKER_01: So I've got Zay Flowers, Jalen Waddell, Devontae Smith, Ladd McConkey, Garrett Wilson, DJ Moore, T.
31:55
SPEAKER_01: Higgins, Terry McLaurin, and Tetra Toa McMillan.
31:59
SPEAKER_01: If you're playing at home along, playing at along at home.
32:03
SPEAKER_01: There we go.
32:04
SPEAKER_01: I got there.
32:04
SPEAKER_01: If you're playing along at home, that's nine.
32:08
SPEAKER_01: And I like a lot of these guys.
32:10
SPEAKER_01: The distinction is I would really prefer that my wide receiver one already exists before I start drafting anybody out of this group.
32:19
SPEAKER_01: So Zay Flowers starts it for me.
32:21
SPEAKER_01: It's a new era in Baltimore.
32:22
SPEAKER_01: Harbaugh is gone.
32:23
SPEAKER_01: I expect them to be a little more aggressive throwing the football.
32:26
SPEAKER_01: And they just paid Zay.
32:28
SPEAKER_01: They gave him a bag.
32:30
SPEAKER_01: Kind of out of nowhere, too.
32:32
SPEAKER_01: Lamar does throw one of the prettiest balls in the league when he's right.
32:35
SPEAKER_01: And, you know, with Derrick Henry making linebackers miserable, Zay Flower should have plenty of space to maneuver.
32:42
SPEAKER_01: Waddle and Denver, I love it.
32:45
SPEAKER_01: Sean Payton has a long history with receivers.
32:48
SPEAKER_01: Going back to Marcus Colston, Lance Moore, Brandon Cooks, Michael Thomas.
32:54
SPEAKER_01: I mean, Denver did not exactly give up major capital for Jalen Waddle so he could just jog around clearing out safeties.
33:00
SPEAKER_01: You know, Bo Nicks has another year and Peyton has his receiver.
33:04
SPEAKER_01: I'm definitely interested in that.
33:07
SPEAKER_01: Devontae Smith, again, AJ Brown is gone.
33:10
SPEAKER_01: We've already seen Devontae produce, even though Brown demanding targets and not getting them.
33:16
SPEAKER_01: Now the hierarchy becomes simpler, right?
33:20
SPEAKER_01: Mikai Lemon will get some work, likely from the slot, but Devontae is going to be the outside guy.
33:25
SPEAKER_01: My only question is how much passing volume we get from Hurts himself.
33:29
SPEAKER_01: Lad McConkey, I liked him a lot last year, and he had a big dip the year two explosion that everybody thought was coming didn't quite happen.
33:37
SPEAKER_01: Okay, fine.
33:38
SPEAKER_01: Now Mike McDaniel shows up.
33:40
SPEAKER_01: Justin Herbert is still Justin Herbert.
33:42
SPEAKER_01: I mean, Big Bird's got a cannon.
33:43
SPEAKER_01: McConkey still earned over 100 targets last year, and there is a perfectly, perfectly reasonable path where better efficiency puts him into a completely different fantasy conversation.
33:54
SPEAKER_01: I'm not giving up.
33:56
SPEAKER_01: I just want proof before I rank him a little bit higher.
33:59
SPEAKER_01: Garrett Wilson, well, you know, again, Jets bias alert.
34:02
SPEAKER_01: I acknowledge it.
34:04
SPEAKER_01: I think if Garrett Wilson had played his first few NFL seasons with a Matthew Stafford or Baker Mayfield level quarterback stability, people might talk about him as one of the three or four best receivers in football.
34:18
SPEAKER_01: That's how talented I really think he is, and that he has shown.
34:22
SPEAKER_01: He's had three straight thousand yard seasons before last year's injury with whatever the hell the Jets were throwing out at quarterback.
34:30
SPEAKER_01: So Geno Smith doesn't have to become Josh Allen.
34:33
SPEAKER_01: Give Garrett the football on time and give him catchable passes.
34:37
SPEAKER_01: Just let him work.
34:38
SPEAKER_01: That's all I'm asking.
34:40
SPEAKER_01: And then there's DJ Moore.
34:42
SPEAKER_01: This one actually moved during the research for this episode.
34:45
SPEAKER_01: I liked DJ Moore before.
34:48
SPEAKER_01: I like him even more now.
34:50
SPEAKER_01: Because apparently I had a complete memory hole and the fact that Joe Brady has already coached DJ Moore in Carolina in 2020.
35:00
SPEAKER_01: You know what DJ Moore's receiving stats were that year?
35:04
SPEAKER_01: How about 1,193 yards and average 18 yards a catch?
35:10
SPEAKER_01: Guess what?
35:12
SPEAKER_01: Now Joe Brady gets him again.
35:14
SPEAKER_01: And it's not just with Andy Dalton.
35:16
SPEAKER_01: He gets him with Josh Allen.
35:19
SPEAKER_01: Josh Allen is, by an enormous margin, the best quarterback DJ Moore has ever played with.
35:25
SPEAKER_01: So that got my attention.
35:27
SPEAKER_01: Now, here's the part where I don't pretend the research only goes in one direction.
35:31
SPEAKER_01: There is a little bit of a downside case.
35:34
SPEAKER_01: Moore hasn't historically been some massive touchdown score.
35:39
SPEAKER_01: There are legitimate questions about whether the efficiency rebounds the way that I want it to, but the Brady connection makes me willing to bet a little harder on the rebound.
35:50
SPEAKER_01: This is exactly why you do the research, folks.
35:52
SPEAKER_01: Sometimes you find something that changes your opinion completely.
35:56
SPEAKER_01: I mean, DJ moved mine up.
35:59
SPEAKER_01: Think about this offense that's going to be running.
36:02
SPEAKER_01: You're going to have Josh Allen running, gunning, doing what he wants, throwing that monster deep ball that he's got.
36:09
SPEAKER_01: James Cook, little dump offs, running the ball, and you get a little bit of a what is it, Dalton Kincaid as their tight end?
36:17
SPEAKER_01: That's all great.
36:18
SPEAKER_01: They moved up to go get Keon Coleman, and the guy just doesn't want to play football anymore.
36:22
SPEAKER_01: Now you got a real wide receiver one for Josh Allen.
36:27
SPEAKER_01: Somebody who has speed and size that he can just say, go deep and I'll hit you.
36:32
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, again, I'm willing to bet on that.
36:36
unknown: T.
36:36
SPEAKER_01: Higgins, great receiver.
36:39
SPEAKER_01: Unfortunately, one of the best receivers alive is standing across from him on the same field.
36:46
SPEAKER_01: Jamar Chase gets fed, man.
36:48
SPEAKER_01: There's no other way around it.
36:49
SPEAKER_01: And Chase Brown is gonna get his.
36:51
SPEAKER_01: There's also no other way around it.
36:54
SPEAKER_01: There are a lot of good players in Cincinnati.
36:56
SPEAKER_01: I like T.
36:57
SPEAKER_01: Higgins.
36:57
SPEAKER_01: I just I know what the pecking order is.
37:00
SPEAKER_01: You know, there's a reason they score 35 points a game, but then they lose 38-35.
37:06
SPEAKER_01: Terry McLaurin is still scary, Terry.
37:10
SPEAKER_01: I mean, at some point we're we're gonna look up.
37:12
SPEAKER_01: He's 48 years old and he still has a thousand yards and we'll go, oh, oh yeah, I forgot.
37:16
SPEAKER_01: Terry McLaurin is still there.
37:18
SPEAKER_01: The only thing I care about for him is the quarterback's health and the offense stability.
37:24
SPEAKER_01: So someone I want to have, but not at the wrong price.
37:28
SPEAKER_01: And then Tetra Toa McMillan closes the tier.
37:32
SPEAKER_01: Huge target, physical, can win all the contested balls, already showed it as a rookie.
37:37
SPEAKER_01: Carolina didn't exactly go out and surround Bryce Young with six other receivers who need 120 targets.
37:42
SPEAKER_01: So there's a path for Tet to get fed.
37:45
SPEAKER_01: The Bryce Young part is what keeps him down on my list here.
37:50
SPEAKER_01: So my receiver takeaway is almost the opposite of running back.
37:55
SPEAKER_01: I want my wide receiver one from tier two or better.
37:59
SPEAKER_01: That's the priority.
38:00
SPEAKER_01: But once I've got that guy, I'm comfortable because look at tier three.
38:06
SPEAKER_01: Zay, Waddle, Devontae, Ladd, Garrett, Moore, Higgins, McCormick, Tet.
38:12
SPEAKER_01: You're telling me one of those guys is my wide receiver two.
38:15
SPEAKER_01: Great.
38:16
SPEAKER_01: You're telling me one of those guys is my flex?
38:19
SPEAKER_01: Even better.
38:20
SPEAKER_01: That's why I keep saying receiver is deep.
38:22
SPEAKER_01: Not because I think wide receiver one doesn't matter, but once I secure the wide receiver one, there are a lot of places where I think I can find production.
38:31
SPEAKER_01: Which brings us to a position where I think there is an absolute absurd amount of production available.
38:38
SPEAKER_01: And that would be quarterback.
38:40
SPEAKER_01: Quarterback is weird this year, man, because I think we have more good fantasy quarterbacks than we have spots to start them.
38:49
SPEAKER_01: The 2024 class has grown up.
38:52
SPEAKER_01: Caleb Williams, Drake May, Jaden Daniels, Bo Nicks, even Michael Penix.
38:58
SPEAKER_01: Then you got Love, Baker, Herbert, Dax, Stafford, Mahomes, Purdy, Lawrence.
39:05
SPEAKER_01: And because of that, being an elite real-life quarterback does not automatically mean I'm willing to pay an elite fantasy price.
39:13
SPEAKER_01: My elite tier one guy is Josh Allen.
39:17
SPEAKER_01: That's it.
39:18
SPEAKER_01: Allen is the best fantasy quarterback.
39:22
SPEAKER_01: The rushing, the touchdowns, the passing, the offense, the weak winning, sealing, everything.
39:29
SPEAKER_01: And I used the playoff roster rate thing last episode.
39:33
SPEAKER_01: So I'm not going to beat it to death again.
39:36
SPEAKER_01: We know Josh Allen is great.
39:38
SPEAKER_01: My question isn't, is Josh Allen great?
39:40
SPEAKER_01: My question is, what do I have to pass on to draft Josh Allen?
39:44
SPEAKER_01: And that question matters more to me.
39:47
SPEAKER_01: So that's the S tier.
39:49
SPEAKER_01: Tier one for quarterbacks is Lamar, Joe Burrow, Drake May.
39:54
SPEAKER_01: Lamar, listen, man, you know what it is.
39:56
SPEAKER_01: Rushing gives him access to fantasy points.
39:58
SPEAKER_01: Most quarterbacks simply cannot get.
40:00
SPEAKER_01: And if Baltimore actually throws more this season, great.
40:03
SPEAKER_01: Now we're adding volume on top of the cheat code, you know?
40:07
SPEAKER_01: Burrow, completely different way of doing it.
40:09
SPEAKER_01: He might throw the ball until his arm falls off.
40:12
SPEAKER_01: When Joe Burrow is healthy and in rhythm, there's something very prime Aaron Rodgers about watching him.
40:18
SPEAKER_01: And I'm not saying career.
40:19
SPEAKER_01: I'm not saying they're the same player.
40:20
SPEAKER_01: I'm talking about the feeling.
40:22
SPEAKER_01: Calm, knows where he's going, ball comes out, perfect spot, up to the line, next play.
40:28
SPEAKER_01: It's annoying if you're rooting against him, honestly.
40:31
SPEAKER_01: Then Drake May.
40:32
SPEAKER_01: And I know that's probably the first ranking where somebody just yelled at their phone.
40:36
SPEAKER_01: Yes, I have Drake May, quarterback four.
40:41
SPEAKER_01: As a Jets fan, I hate to say it, but I believe in him, man.
40:43
SPEAKER_01: I've seen enough.
40:44
SPEAKER_01: He gives you passing production.
40:46
SPEAKER_01: He gives you rushing production.
40:48
SPEAKER_01: He's had stretches last year where 20 fantasy points felt like the starting point instead of the ceiling.
40:54
SPEAKER_01: And now you give him AJ Brown.
40:57
SPEAKER_01: Come on, man.
40:58
SPEAKER_01: I mean, you gave a quarterback who's already ascending an actual alpha receiver.
41:03
SPEAKER_01: I'm going to bet on the next step.
41:06
SPEAKER_01: Tier two starts with Jalen Hurts, Caleb Williams, Justin Herbert, Dak Prescott, and Jaden Daniels.
41:16
SPEAKER_01: Hurts is fantasy football bullshit in the best way possible.
41:20
SPEAKER_01: You know, you can spend the entire game watching him throw for 185 yards and thinking, well, that's this isn't great.
41:27
SPEAKER_01: We're I'm boned.
41:29
SPEAKER_01: And then Philly gets at a two-yard line.
41:31
SPEAKER_01: Brotherly shove, as they like to call it.
41:33
SPEAKER_01: Touchdowns, six fantasy points.
41:35
SPEAKER_01: Thank you very much.
41:36
SPEAKER_01: Look in leagues where passing touchdowns are typically four and rushing touchdowns are six, that's a massive advantage.
41:43
SPEAKER_01: He loses AJ Brown, which matters, but the rushing keeps the floor high.
41:49
SPEAKER_01: Caleb, well, Caleb is basically my Dak Prescott argument from last year, right?
41:54
SPEAKER_01: I don't need Chicago's defense to be awful, but if they're playing in a bunch of 31, 28 games, fantastic.
42:02
SPEAKER_01: Fantasy doesn't deduct points because your quarterback had to throw 40 times because their defense couldn't stop anybody.
42:09
SPEAKER_01: Ben Johnson, weapons everywhere, year three.
42:12
SPEAKER_01: That's a huge ceiling, potential ceiling, you know?
42:17
SPEAKER_01: Herbert and Dak are basically 7A and 7B.
42:20
SPEAKER_01: Herbert gets Mike McDaniels.
42:22
SPEAKER_01: That alone interests me.
42:23
SPEAKER_01: We know he has the arm.
42:25
SPEAKER_01: We know he can throw for 300 plus a game.
42:27
SPEAKER_01: And we know physically he's built like a creative player quarterback, right?
42:31
SPEAKER_01: Meanwhile, Dak has CD and Pickens.
42:33
SPEAKER_01: That's a fantastic receiver duo.
42:35
SPEAKER_01: The offense should be good.
42:37
SPEAKER_01: The offensive line should be good.
42:39
SPEAKER_01: I don't have a strong enough reason to separate them much more than that.
42:43
SPEAKER_01: And then Jaden Daniels wraps up that tier.
42:47
SPEAKER_01: And I want to phrase this carefully because I'm not saying Daniels doesn't have a higher fantasy ceiling than Herbert or Dak.
42:54
SPEAKER_01: He does.
42:55
SPEAKER_01: He runs, and that matters, like we just talked about with Hurts.
42:59
SPEAKER_01: I'm saying that because quarterback is so deep this year, I personally don't feel the need to absorb every bit of the injury and offensive line risk that comes with him.
43:09
SPEAKER_01: You know, if Daniels falls, I'll draft him.
43:13
SPEAKER_01: Absolutely.
43:14
SPEAKER_01: I'm not fading him into oblivion.
43:16
SPEAKER_01: I'm just not going to reach over Herbert or Dak because somebody tells me the rushing upside theoretically makes him QB three.
43:24
SPEAKER_01: Herbert is 6'6, 236 pounds.
43:27
SPEAKER_01: Daniels is 6'4, 210.
43:30
SPEAKER_01: That's a meaningful physical difference when both quarterbacks are dealing with pressure and taking hits.
43:35
SPEAKER_01: Do I acknowledge Daniels might make me look stupid?
43:38
SPEAKER_01: Of course.
43:39
SPEAKER_01: That's why we love it.
43:40
SPEAKER_01: But I'm call I'm comfortable with that bet.
43:44
SPEAKER_01: Now, tier three is where I think the entire argument for waiting a quarterback starts to make itself very apparent.
43:51
SPEAKER_01: My tier three list is Trevor Lawrence, Bo Nicks, Brock Purdy, Matthew Stafford, Patrick Mahomes, Baker Mayfield, Jordan.
44:00
SPEAKER_01: Love, Jared Goff, and Kyler Murray.
44:03
SPEAKER_01: Look at those names.
44:05
SPEAKER_01: Trevor Lawrence starts it and he drove fantasy managers insane for most of the last season.
44:12
SPEAKER_01: And then all of a sudden the fantasy playoffs happened and suddenly he turned into the god that he was supposed to be coming out of college.
44:19
SPEAKER_01: Monster game after monster game, and then another good game.
44:23
SPEAKER_01: So now the question is, did something finally click with Liam Cohen late?
44:27
SPEAKER_01: Because if it did, we're getting him outside the top two tiers.
44:30
SPEAKER_01: I'll take that chance all day.
44:32
SPEAKER_01: Bo Knicks is basically right next to him.
44:35
SPEAKER_01: Another year with Sean Payton, and now he gets Jalen Waddell.
44:38
SPEAKER_01: Nick's already showed he can run a little bit, throw touchdowns, and give you usable fantasy weeks.
44:43
SPEAKER_01: What happens if he takes passing, if his passing game gets to the next level, takes the next step?
44:49
SPEAKER_01: Brock Birdie, I'm biased here for a little bit of a different reason.
44:53
SPEAKER_01: I had him last year in one of my leagues, and yeah, he missed a lot of time, but when he got healthy late, he helped carry me through the fantasy playoffs and into the finals.
45:02
SPEAKER_01: So I lived it.
45:03
SPEAKER_01: I watched him go from being the quarterback I was just trying to survive with to, oh, okay, Brock's dropping 20 again.
45:09
SPEAKER_01: Oh, there's 30.
45:10
SPEAKER_01: Look, it's a Shanahan offense.
45:12
SPEAKER_01: There's weapons.
45:13
SPEAKER_01: If he's fully healthy, I always trust it.
45:16
SPEAKER_01: Then you got Matthew Stafford, and this is my favorite part of the quarterback rankings.
45:21
SPEAKER_01: The reigning NFL MVP is my tier three fantasy quarterback.
45:27
SPEAKER_01: That's it.
45:28
SPEAKER_01: That's the segment.
45:29
SPEAKER_01: What more do I have to tell you about the quarterback depth?
45:32
SPEAKER_01: I mean, Stafford just threw 46 touchdowns.
45:36
SPEAKER_01: He has Puka, he has Devante, he has Kyron.
45:40
SPEAKER_01: Sean McVay is a genius.
45:42
SPEAKER_01: Do I expect the touchdown numbers to regress?
45:44
SPEAKER_01: Maybe a little bit.
45:46
SPEAKER_01: But if Matthew Stafford is sitting there late in my draft, what exactly am I panicking about not having a quarterback yet?
45:54
SPEAKER_01: Mahomes, kind of the same conversation from a different direction.
45:57
SPEAKER_01: Mahomes is still one of the best quarterbacks to ever do it.
46:00
SPEAKER_01: I get it.
46:01
SPEAKER_01: He makes it work.
46:02
SPEAKER_01: That does not mean Patrick Mahomes has to finish QB two in fantasy football.
46:06
SPEAKER_01: And just to update where we stand, everything is currently trending toward Mahomes playing week one for the record.
46:12
SPEAKER_01: He's taken first team reps throughout camp.
46:14
SPEAKER_01: And Mahomes himself has said that week one has been the plan all along.
46:18
SPEAKER_01: Now, look, he still needs final medical and coaching clearance, obviously, but my tier three ranking isn't really about me expecting him to miss the season opener.
46:28
SPEAKER_01: It's fantasy.
46:29
SPEAKER_01: Coming off an ACL and LCL injury, I don't expect Kansas City to say, hey Pat, welcome back.
46:35
SPEAKER_01: Let's add eight rushing touchdowns to your workload.
46:37
SPEAKER_01: Look, he's going to win games.
46:39
SPEAKER_01: He's going to make ridiculous throws.
46:40
SPEAKER_01: The fantasy scoring profile is just a little different than Allen and Lamar, and that's okay.
46:45
SPEAKER_01: But the price is different too because of it.
46:48
SPEAKER_01: Baker, I love Baker Mayfield, man.
46:51
SPEAKER_01: I love the player.
46:52
SPEAKER_01: I love the leader.
46:52
SPEAKER_01: I love the fact that he will get hit in the mouth, pop back up, and start yelling at somebody.
46:58
SPEAKER_01: Fantasy-wise, can be a little bit of a roller coaster.
47:02
SPEAKER_01: Mike Evans is gone.
47:05
SPEAKER_01: We're not calling it turf toe yet, but it's not far off of it.
47:09
SPEAKER_01: Kate Otten, Bucky Irving, they lost Rashad White.
47:12
SPEAKER_01: I mean, look, there are weapons, but there's also some things that are missing.
47:15
SPEAKER_01: It's it's different with him, though.
47:16
SPEAKER_01: You know, some weeks Baker might throw three touchdowns.
47:20
SPEAKER_01: Other weeks you might be sitting there at halftime and with four fantasy points, wondering what the hell you did.
47:27
SPEAKER_01: I'm okay with that if I waited, man.
47:29
SPEAKER_01: You know, hopefully you have enough talent on your roster that can help support those weeks, you know?
47:34
SPEAKER_01: Jordan Love, solid.
47:36
SPEAKER_01: Watson, Kraft.
47:38
SPEAKER_01: Green Bay always seems to find another receiver.
47:41
SPEAKER_01: My only concern is the history of injuries showing up absolutely terrible times for fantasy managers.
47:46
SPEAKER_01: Jared Goff is um look, nobody gets excited drafting Jared Goff, right?
47:51
SPEAKER_01: And then all of a sudden you look up and he has 23 fantasy points because he threw four touchdowns indoors and never got his uniform dirty.
47:58
SPEAKER_01: Detroit plays a lot of controlled environment football.
48:02
SPEAKER_01: Good weapons, good offensive structure.
48:04
SPEAKER_01: He's boring until he isn't.
48:07
SPEAKER_01: And then Kyler Murray closes the tier.
48:10
SPEAKER_01: Minnesota.
48:11
SPEAKER_01: Man, are they ever they ever gonna figure this out?
48:13
SPEAKER_01: I don't know.
48:14
SPEAKER_01: Maybe not.
48:14
SPEAKER_01: Either way, Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, scramble ability, broken plays.
48:21
SPEAKER_01: If you're telling me I waited until basically everybody else has a quarterback and this is what I get, I might be able to live with that, man.
48:29
SPEAKER_01: If I got the right pieces in place, I might be able to live with that.
48:35
SPEAKER_01: So here's the quarterback strategy for me, at least.
48:38
SPEAKER_01: If Joe Burrow or Drake May somehow start falling into the seventh or eighth round, I'm done.
48:44
SPEAKER_01: Take them, don't get cute, don't even think about it.
48:47
SPEAKER_01: If Caleb or Hertz get to that seventh, eighth round and have already got my running backs, receivers, the flex I like, yeah, let's do it.
48:56
SPEAKER_01: Let's pull the trigger.
48:58
SPEAKER_01: But generally, I'm waiting, man.
49:01
SPEAKER_01: Because if I can get Trevor Lawrence or Bo Nicks or Brock Purdy or Matthew Stafford or Pat fucking Mahomes after building the rest of my starting lineup, why am I forcing quarterback?
49:14
SPEAKER_01: And yes, there there will be a week where my late quarterback finishes 12 points.
49:19
SPEAKER_01: Fine.
49:20
SPEAKER_01: Again, the entire reason I waited on quarterback was to build a roster strong enough everywhere else that 12 points doesn't kill me.
49:29
SPEAKER_01: That's the trade-off.
49:31
SPEAKER_01: So from there, everybody's favorite position that's loaded with talent, let me tell you, tight end.
49:42
SPEAKER_01: Tight end is definitely the opposite of quarterback.
49:46
SPEAKER_01: Look, quarterback is deep enough that I don't feel desperate.
49:49
SPEAKER_01: Tight end, tight end is deeper than it used to be for sure, but there are still just two guys where I think you can clearly see the positional advantage, and the S tier is Brock Bowers and Trey McBride, and it's in that order, by the way.
50:05
SPEAKER_01: Brock Bowers won, McBride two.
50:07
SPEAKER_01: I flip them from how I thought about them last year, right?
50:12
SPEAKER_01: Bowers was hurt, the Raiders' offense was a mess.
50:15
SPEAKER_01: Now he's healthy.
50:16
SPEAKER_01: The offensive line should be better, the quarterback room should be better.
50:19
SPEAKER_01: Clint Kubiak is there.
50:22
SPEAKER_01: And who exactly is stealing 140 targets from Brock Bowers?
50:26
SPEAKER_01: You know, that's the argument.
50:27
SPEAKER_01: He's basically a receiver who happens to be huge, and it says T E next to his name.
50:33
SPEAKER_01: Now McBride is kind of the same idea.
50:36
SPEAKER_01: Here's what I love about McBride, right?
50:38
SPEAKER_01: In 2024, had 111 catches, 1,146 yards, only two touchdowns.
50:44
SPEAKER_01: Then last year, 126 catches, 1,239 yards, and 11 touchdowns.
50:52
SPEAKER_01: The touchdowns changed completely.
50:55
SPEAKER_01: The receiving didn't move at all.
50:57
SPEAKER_01: In fact, it got better.
50:58
SPEAKER_01: That's what I want.
50:59
SPEAKER_01: I don't need to draft a tight end and pray that the only reason he has fantasy value is because he catches nine touchdowns on 53 balls.
51:06
SPEAKER_01: McBride is gonna get his targets.
51:09
SPEAKER_01: He is huge.
51:10
SPEAKER_01: He moves way better than anybody his size should, and he catches everything.
51:15
SPEAKER_01: Get him the ball.
51:16
SPEAKER_01: Good things tend to happen when you do.
51:19
SPEAKER_01: So that's the S tier.
51:20
SPEAKER_01: From tier one now, we're gonna go Colston Loveland, Tucker Kraft, Tyler Wharton.
51:27
SPEAKER_01: And I think this is probably my favorite tight end range from a draft value standpoint.
51:32
SPEAKER_01: You know, like Lovelin, Ben Johnson loves him.
51:35
SPEAKER_01: The rookie year was great for him.
51:37
SPEAKER_01: Chicago has plenty of other weapons, obviously, Roma Dunze, Luther Burden.
51:41
SPEAKER_01: But the offense clearly wants Loveland involved.
51:45
SPEAKER_01: And good tight ends in a Ben Johnson offense are something I'm willing to bet on.
51:50
SPEAKER_01: You know, it's no surprise he got this good.
51:52
SPEAKER_01: Do you remember how good Samuel Porter was his rookie year?
51:56
SPEAKER_01: Kraft over Warren for me.
51:59
SPEAKER_01: Not because I think Kraft is unquestionably more talented than Tyler Warren.
52:03
SPEAKER_01: I just trust the Green Bay ecosystem a little bit more.
52:07
SPEAKER_01: You know, Jordan Love, say what you want about him, knows where to put the ball.
52:11
SPEAKER_01: He's got a stable offense, and yes, there's Watson.
52:14
SPEAKER_01: Yes, there's Reed.
52:15
SPEAKER_01: Yes, there's Golden.
52:16
SPEAKER_01: There are mouths to feed.
52:17
SPEAKER_01: I trust the quarterback.
52:19
SPEAKER_01: Tyler Warren has opportunity.
52:22
SPEAKER_01: Pittman is gone.
52:23
SPEAKER_01: Pierce has the injury situation.
52:25
SPEAKER_01: Keenan Allen is there now, but he's 100 years old.
52:29
SPEAKER_01: Josh Downs and Jonathan Taylor are going to get fed.
52:32
SPEAKER_01: But then I get to Daniel Jones, and I have a little less confidence that all the target math turns into fantasy production.
52:41
SPEAKER_01: So Craft 4, Warren 5, and the important part is this.
52:47
SPEAKER_01: Once Bowers and McBride are gone, I'm not buying guaranteed separation anymore.
52:52
SPEAKER_01: I'm buying the chance one of these guys becomes the next tight end who creates separation.
52:58
SPEAKER_01: That's a different price.
53:00
SPEAKER_01: And what I mean by that is Brock Bowers or Trey McBride are going to cost you either a second or a third round pick.
53:07
SPEAKER_01: If you get one of them in the fourth, you should thank your Lucky SARS and keep moving.
53:11
SPEAKER_01: Those guys in tier one below them, that's like a fifth, sixth, seventh, eighth pick.
53:20
SPEAKER_01: That I'm willing to spend on the potential for them to become a tight end two, tight end three.
53:27
SPEAKER_01: But if you're planning on taking any of those guys any higher than that, I would uh I would advise you not to.
53:34
SPEAKER_01: But again, it's your draft.
53:35
SPEAKER_01: You do what you want.
53:37
SPEAKER_01: Tier two, uh Harold Fannon, Samu Porter, Kyle Pitts, George Kittle.
53:44
SPEAKER_01: Fannin, I trust the player more than I trust Cleveland, which is obvious.
53:49
SPEAKER_01: That's basically it.
53:50
SPEAKER_01: I mean, they've announced Deshaun Watson as their starting quarterback, and it's either him or Shador Sanders.
53:57
SPEAKER_01: Either way, less than ideal.
53:58
SPEAKER_01: Todd Monkin comes in.
54:00
SPEAKER_01: I think the receiving role remains.
54:02
SPEAKER_01: I'll maybe bet on Fannon.
54:06
SPEAKER_01: Not my highest pick.
54:08
SPEAKER_01: Laporta, probably the player here.
54:11
SPEAKER_01: People are going to think that I have too low.
54:13
SPEAKER_01: And normally, normally I might agree.
54:16
SPEAKER_01: Look, a healthy Sam Laporta is something I have no problem putting a tier higher, but we've got a little accumulation here.
54:23
SPEAKER_01: The back issue last season, then his hip flared up during camp now.
54:28
SPEAKER_01: That was enough for me to knock him down when I built the board.
54:31
SPEAKER_01: Now the good news is he already returned to practice Tuesday, less than a week after Dan Campbell wouldn't guarantee his week one status.
54:38
SPEAKER_01: So we're trending the right way.
54:41
SPEAKER_01: And, you know, if he keeps progressing, I may end up looking overly cautious.
54:45
SPEAKER_01: That's fine.
54:46
SPEAKER_01: But I'm ranking this today.
54:49
SPEAKER_01: At a physical position after the back issue, and then another hip thing popping up during camp.
54:54
SPEAKER_01: I'm still taking the little bit of a discount now.
54:58
SPEAKER_01: Now, Kyle Pitts.
55:00
SPEAKER_01: Ah, yes, Kyle Pitts, everybody's favorite meme.
55:03
SPEAKER_01: We're back.
55:04
SPEAKER_01: Do you know how many receiving touchdowns Kyle Pitts has had by season?
55:09
SPEAKER_01: One, then two, then three, then four, then five.
55:15
SPEAKER_01: So mathematically speaking, congratulations to Kyle Pitts owners on his sixth touchdown 2026 season.
55:22
SPEAKER_01: We did it.
55:23
SPEAKER_01: Finally cracked fantasy football.
55:26
SPEAKER_01: But jokes aside, Pitts was actually pretty good last year.
55:30
SPEAKER_01: Really good, actually.
55:31
SPEAKER_01: So at some point, we're probably gonna have to retire the eternal Kyle Pitts breakout season year joke.
55:38
SPEAKER_01: Just because eventually a guy just broke out.
55:42
SPEAKER_01: Now it's Tua.
55:44
SPEAKER_01: Short and intermediate work is his specialty.
55:47
SPEAKER_01: Crossers, middle of the field.
55:49
SPEAKER_01: There is a path where Pitts stays healthy and involved.
55:53
SPEAKER_01: I still have enough emotional scar tissue from Kyle Pitts fantasy discourse to leave him in tier two, but I wouldn't expect, I wouldn't be surprised if he uh kind of blossomed a little bit more.
56:04
SPEAKER_01: Next up, we got George Kittle.
56:07
SPEAKER_01: Uh, we know what George Kittle is when he's on the field, right?
56:09
SPEAKER_01: He's one of the best tight ends in football.
56:11
SPEAKER_01: He's insane after the catch.
56:13
SPEAKER_01: He's a great blocker.
56:14
SPEAKER_01: Purdy trusts him.
56:15
SPEAKER_01: The issue is that he is 32 years old and coming off an Achilles tear.
56:20
SPEAKER_01: Now, the latest news is legitimately encouraging.
56:23
SPEAKER_01: They've activated him off the pup over the weekend and he passes physical and yada yada yada yada.
56:29
SPEAKER_01: That's great.
56:29
SPEAKER_01: It doesn't magically make me forget that a 32-year-old tight end is coming off an Achilles tear.
56:34
SPEAKER_01: So I leave him here.
56:35
SPEAKER_01: If he's healthy and he looks like George Kittle, I will happily admit this ranking was too low.
56:41
SPEAKER_01: Now for tier three, to round it out, Kincaid, Travis Kelsey, Dallas Goddard, Isaiah Likely, and Mark Andrews.
56:50
SPEAKER_01: Look, Kincaid, I still like the player.
56:52
SPEAKER_01: Big target, good after catch, Josh Allen.
56:54
SPEAKER_01: The problem is DJ Moore just showed up, and I think he takes the biggest new bite out of the Buffalo's passing game.
57:00
SPEAKER_01: So Kincaid is useful.
57:02
SPEAKER_01: I just don't see the Giant break out as clearly.
57:05
SPEAKER_01: Kelsey, look, man, he's 36.
57:08
SPEAKER_01: I don't know how many rides he's got left.
57:11
SPEAKER_01: This is probably his last year.
57:12
SPEAKER_01: I'm not going to sit here and announce his retirement for him, but I'm just asking from him, can I get one more?
57:19
SPEAKER_01: One more useful Travis Kelsey season.
57:22
SPEAKER_01: Mahomes, trusts him.
57:24
SPEAKER_01: Always has, always will.
57:25
SPEAKER_01: He understands every hole in a defense.
57:27
SPEAKER_01: He's not prime Kelsey anymore.
57:29
SPEAKER_01: That's why he's in tier three.
57:31
SPEAKER_01: But if I waited on tight end, I could do a lot worse.
57:35
SPEAKER_01: Goddard, you know, reliable.
57:37
SPEAKER_01: Hurts likes the middle.
57:38
SPEAKER_01: He scores touchdowns.
57:39
SPEAKER_01: He's getting older.
57:40
SPEAKER_01: Eli Stowers is drafted behind him, and he will eventually probably take over.
57:44
SPEAKER_01: But today, Goddard is the guy.
57:47
SPEAKER_01: And then I have Isaiah Likely and Mark Andrews basically tied next to each other, which is funny because for years the problem was they're tied next to each other in Baltimore.
57:59
SPEAKER_01: Now Likely leaves for the Giants.
58:01
SPEAKER_01: Jackson Dark gets his athletic tight end who can work the middle of the field.
58:05
SPEAKER_01: Maybe they use a ton of 12 personnel.
58:07
SPEAKER_01: Opportunity goes up for likely.
58:09
SPEAKER_01: Meanwhile, leaving Baltimore means Mark Andrew doesn't have to compete with snaps with Isaiah Likely anymore.
58:16
SPEAKER_01: So somehow separating the two of them may have actually helped both of them.
58:20
SPEAKER_01: Fantasy football is stupid sometimes.
58:22
SPEAKER_01: Anyway, my tight end strategy is pretty simple.
58:25
SPEAKER_01: I love Brock Bowers.
58:26
SPEAKER_01: I love Trey McBride.
58:28
SPEAKER_01: I just don't necessarily love what I have to give up to go draft them.
58:32
SPEAKER_01: If I'm at the turn and the running backs and receivers I trust are gone, yeah, sure.
58:38
SPEAKER_01: Give me Bowers.
58:39
SPEAKER_01: Lock in the position and don't think about tight end for the rest of the draft.
58:42
SPEAKER_01: But if I'm taking Bowers over a running back or a receiver that I think I can anchor my team with, I'm probably waiting.
58:51
SPEAKER_01: Because Lovelin, Kraft, Warren, I can live with that.
58:55
SPEAKER_01: And if I completely miss on those guys, then there are still some names later that I trust.
59:00
SPEAKER_01: That's a much better tight end environment than we've had for the past couple years.
59:05
SPEAKER_01: And we'll get in how keeper and auction leagues change that equation later in this series because trust me, they absolutely do.
59:12
SPEAKER_01: But for now, we just got to get into everybody's favorite positions that they always love to reach for.
59:19
SPEAKER_01: Kickers and defense.
59:21
SPEAKER_01: Yes, come on.
59:22
SPEAKER_01: You know, you know.
59:24
SPEAKER_01: Somebody in your draft, always, always.
59:27
SPEAKER_01: It's round seven.
59:28
SPEAKER_01: And they go, Oh, I I need Houston's defense.
59:32
SPEAKER_01: Or I need uh I need Dallas's kicker.
59:37
SPEAKER_01: Let 'em relax.
59:39
SPEAKER_01: This this section's gonna be two minutes.
59:42
SPEAKER_01: I I don't think kickers are meaningless.
59:45
SPEAKER_01: I mean, I've had kickers put up 14-15 points in a week, and that sure is how it matters sometimes when your flex is only putting up 10.
59:53
SPEAKER_01: Your kicker just bailed you out because of it.
59:56
SPEAKER_01: So if I'm looking for a kicker, I can't believe I'm breaking down kickers here.
1:00:00
SPEAKER_01: Here's what I'm looking for.
1:00:01
SPEAKER_01: I'm looking for a big leg, I'm looking for a good environment, I'm looking for domes, and I'm looking for altitude.
1:00:08
SPEAKER_01: And honestly, my favorite thing for kickers is what you should really be looking for.
1:00:12
SPEAKER_01: You're looking for a good enough offense that stalls out at around the 30.
1:00:17
SPEAKER_01: Get me, get me to the 30, the 32.
1:00:20
SPEAKER_01: Beautiful, man.
1:00:21
SPEAKER_01: Three points.
1:00:23
SPEAKER_01: Brandon Aubrey, Kaimi Fairbane, Cameron Dicker, Dicker the kicker, who doesn't love him?
1:00:28
SPEAKER_01: Evan McPherson, fine.
1:00:31
SPEAKER_01: But I'm not going after this in round 10.
1:00:35
SPEAKER_01: If it's a 15-round draft and I'm in round 13, and the running back I'm considering is somebody, I'm probably dropping after week one anyway, some waiver wire fodder.
1:00:48
SPEAKER_01: Okay, fine.
1:00:49
SPEAKER_01: Take the elite kicker.
1:00:50
SPEAKER_01: Once the elite kickers go, who cares?
1:00:54
SPEAKER_01: Wait.
1:00:54
SPEAKER_01: It's a crapshoot anyway.
1:00:56
SPEAKER_01: And defense is even easier.
1:00:58
SPEAKER_01: I don't draft the logo, I just draft this schedule.
1:01:02
SPEAKER_01: Rams, Houston, Denver, Seattle, sure, they're all great.
1:01:06
SPEAKER_01: And they'll get you your picks and your sacks and your turnover, whatever, fine.
1:01:10
SPEAKER_01: Some defenses are legitimately better than others.
1:01:13
SPEAKER_01: But I would much rather have the eighth best defense playing three questionable offenses in a row than draft the number one ranked defense and immediately run into three top five quarterbacks.
1:01:26
SPEAKER_01: Look, two or three weeks ahead, always.
1:01:29
SPEAKER_01: Stream.
1:01:30
SPEAKER_01: That's it.
1:01:31
SPEAKER_01: Do not pass on an upside running back in round twelve because you desperately need to lock down the Broncos defense.
1:01:40
SPEAKER_01: Please, if there's anything you take out of this whole episode, it's this.
1:01:44
SPEAKER_01: I'm begging you, don't do that.
1:01:48
SPEAKER_01: So anyway, so that's the board, at least right now, right?
1:01:53
SPEAKER_01: And I keep saying that because apparently the NFL has decided to prove the point for me in real time.
1:01:59
SPEAKER_01: Ash and Janti hurts his ankle.
1:02:01
SPEAKER_01: Brees Hall strains his groin.
1:02:03
SPEAKER_01: Malik Neighbors is working his way back from his ACL.
1:02:06
SPEAKER_01: And today of all days, Jamar Chase lands on his knee and scares the absolute shit out of everybody before telling us afterwards he'd play through it if the game were tomorrow.
1:02:15
SPEAKER_01: That's fantasy football.
1:02:17
SPEAKER_01: Things change.
1:02:19
SPEAKER_01: The framework doesn't.
1:02:21
SPEAKER_01: So let's make this really simple.
1:02:23
SPEAKER_01: Running back, I don't have to take one immediately.
1:02:26
SPEAKER_01: But Kyron, Javante, and Breeze start disappearing.
1:02:29
SPEAKER_01: It's time to start taking one.
1:02:31
SPEAKER_01: Wide receiver, I want my wide receiver one from tier two or better.
1:02:35
SPEAKER_01: After that, I trust the depth.
1:02:38
SPEAKER_01: Quarterback, I'm completely comfortable waiting unless premium value falls directly into my lap.
1:02:45
SPEAKER_01: Tight end, Bowers and McBride can give you a real positional advantage.
1:02:49
SPEAKER_01: Otherwise, I don't want to pay the price that it costs for.
1:02:54
SPEAKER_01: And kicker and defense, use your head.
1:02:56
SPEAKER_01: Don't ruin a good draft because you got excited about a defense.
1:03:00
SPEAKER_01: The bigger thing that I want you to take away from these two episodes together is that none of this is supposed to remove uncertainty.
1:03:09
SPEAKER_01: You can't.
1:03:10
SPEAKER_01: That's the game.
1:03:12
SPEAKER_01: I can build the best tiers I've ever built.
1:03:15
SPEAKER_01: You can do 50, 60, 100, 150 mock drafts.
1:03:20
SPEAKER_01: Fantasy Pros can give somebody 99 out of 100 grade every time on the mocks.
1:03:25
SPEAKER_01: And then week two happens.
1:03:27
SPEAKER_01: Your running back gets hurt.
1:03:29
SPEAKER_01: Some seventh round receiver catches nine touchdowns, and we're all sitting there pretending we knew it was coming, man.
1:03:36
SPEAKER_01: You didn't.
1:03:38
SPEAKER_01: I didn't.
1:03:39
SPEAKER_01: Nobody did.
1:03:40
SPEAKER_01: The goal is to make good bets.
1:03:44
SPEAKER_01: And I think that's especially true early in a draft.
1:03:47
SPEAKER_01: I don't necessarily think you can win your league with your first round pick, but you can absolutely put yourself in a massive hole with it.
1:03:55
SPEAKER_01: The real separation, a lot of times it's later.
1:03:59
SPEAKER_01: Round seven, eight, nine.
1:04:02
SPEAKER_01: The guy everybody thought was a flex now becomes a wide receiver one.
1:04:07
SPEAKER_01: The second running back in a committee who suddenly owns the job, the quarterback everybody ignored finishes top five on the season.
1:04:16
SPEAKER_01: That's where championship rosters are built and they start appearing.
1:04:21
SPEAKER_01: And conveniently, that's basically where we're going next.
1:04:25
SPEAKER_01: Part three of this series, we're done talking about everybody.
1:04:30
SPEAKER_01: And I want to talk to you about my guys.
1:04:32
SPEAKER_01: Guys I'm planting the flag on, guys I think are values, and guys I don't necessarily think are bad at football, but I absolutely do not want to draft them at any price.
1:04:42
SPEAKER_01: I've got some late-round lottery tickets, and one player that I have changed my mind on about 15 goddamn times this summer.
1:04:52
SPEAKER_01: My guys, your guys, and guys I'm not touching.
1:04:55
SPEAKER_01: That's next.
1:04:57
SPEAKER_01: But until then, you can find the show wherever you get your podcasts.
1:05:02
SPEAKER_01: Follow Rice on the radio wherever you're wasting time on social media.
1:05:06
SPEAKER_01: Tell someone who spends way too much time of August staring at fantasy bros about the show.
1:05:12
SPEAKER_01: And as always, tell someone you love them.
1:05:15
SPEAKER_01: Spread good energy.
1:05:17
SPEAKER_01: And I'll talk to you guys next time.
1:05:20
unknown: Peace.