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The 5 o' Clock Shadow with Schalk Louw · Strictly Business

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You're listening to Strictly Business Podcast with Lindsay Williams.
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The JSC has closed its doors for another day, so it's time for the five o'clock
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shadow.
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And as always, on a Wednesday, I speak to Skulk Lowe, Portfolio Manager, PSG Wealth,
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Old Oak in
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Cape Town.
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It's almost June, Skulk, which is the beginning traditionally of the Northern
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Hemisphere summer and therefore Northern Hemisphere summer holidays.
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the old sell in may and go away hasn't worked again but there's a sort of a a
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dull sort of haze over the markets
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at the moment isn't there not quite knowing where to go and grabbing onto
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every little tiny headline or social media
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message do you get that feeling you don't know what you don't quite know what's
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going on yeah
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good evening lindsay and good evening to listeners yeah it's it it is sort of like
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that i mean we we're seeing it in
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in the movements on share prices and it's sort more of the same.
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You know, the one moment we hear America says, well, we're nearing the end of the
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war,
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and then we see these massive movements, movements, you know, positivity in the
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market, positivity on
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U.S. stocks.
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We see big retracements in the oil prices also of companies like Sasol.
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I mean, today was, again, no difference.
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We saw, you know, Sasol retrace six and a quarter of a percentage just because
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And we'll be looking at, yeah, we're most probably going to see some,
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we'll most probably see a peace deal of some sort that comes through.
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But yesterday was different.
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Yesterday, we were thinking there's going to be some peace deal.
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And then America went in and bombed a few tankers or ships in
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Iran.
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And it was again a different story.
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So, yeah.
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It is sort of in limbo.
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We don't know, is this the end of the war?
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And then the harsh reality is going to be, where are we going to value some of these
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shares?
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Because this definitely is still going to be, in my view, inflationary.
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It's going to be what Kevin Walsh is going to be doing next in terms of FED.
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Is he going to hold the line, not raise high interest rates?
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When is the next meeting?
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Sorry to interrupt you.
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When is the next Fed meeting?
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The first one that he presides over Walsh, that is.
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It was June.
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I'll tell you exactly.
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I've actually got this.
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Sorry to catch you out on that one.
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But it's very interesting because then that's another thing for the markets to
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become obsessed over.
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When is the next Fed meeting?
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What will Walsh do?
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It's the 17th of June.
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So we're talking about a little bit more than.
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A little bit more than two weeks.
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Okay.
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All right.
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Well, people will start talking about it very, very soon.
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Okay, so there's a nautical or maritime term for a particular area of the
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ocean, which is called the doldrums.
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You get stuck in the doldrums, and if you're in a sailing vessel, then you can't
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go anywhere because there's absolutely no wind.
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It's not quite the same here, but the doldrums really does sum it up a little
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bit because we've become very, very greedy, Skunk.
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about movements, particularly to the upside.
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And I think when things don't quite go our way, we think, oh dear, you know, what
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have we done to deserve this?
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But on that note, what have we done to deserve Renet coming down 10% today?
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And what have we done to deserve Telcom going up 10% today on the JSC?
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Over to you on the Renet, first of all.
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And then just for good measures, let's add Richemont into the mix as well.
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Because that...
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That had a wonderful day as well.
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I mean, that was up 4.3% for a massive company like Richemont as well.
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So we'll tackle all three.
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I think the first one you asked about, Ronit, it's an interesting one because we
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saw this,
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the update coming through today, the four-year results.
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And as you mentioned, 10.7%.
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Let's just retrace.
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We heard a few.
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a few weeks ago, but a few months ago,
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that they're selling their stake in the pension fund, what's it,
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pension fund corporation.
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And that was sort of the market saying, well, wait a minute, wait a minute.
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We're going to see Rupert basically wrapping this up.
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We will most probably see, we've seen the sale of bats.
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Now pension fund is them, this them getting rid of everything and you know,
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paying this as a special dividend, basically unlocking that discount to the
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NAV.
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Because even as we sit here today, yes, the NAV is down.
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That was sort of one of the reasons as well.
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NAV was down 4.5%.
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Came down from just over €38 to €31.
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So that's more or less, let's call it, was €753 now down to €710.
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Share price is still trading way below that.
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So that's still, you know, it's still got that discount.
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For everyone's reference, it's around about, my screen is delayed,
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but about €514 a share, right?
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Yeah, well, let's take yesterday's close and just say, you know, 575, right?
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That's still a discount.
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And we know some of these holding companies, and here I'm referring to the
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likes of Remgrove,
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which is also in that school of Rupert Stoll, Nusper, Prosys.
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Those companies lately has been trading at a fairly wide discount.
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But the market got excited because the company is sitting with 5.5 billion euros.
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on the balance sheet, they sort of expected some move, some payment, some
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special divvy,
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some reaction, and it didn't happen.
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It didn't happen.
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So, you know, when a company is sitting in this 5.5 billion euros,
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it's 83% of the total now.
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Yet, you know, when they looked at this, Mr.
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Rupert commented in this report, He referred to the strong liquidity position,
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and he mentioned that they're going to be selective on new investments with a focus
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on
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long-term value creation and preservation.
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And the market is like, no, no, no, this is not what we want to hear.
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We want to hear you taking that liquidity and giving it back to us and basically
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wrapping Renate up.
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So as always, shareholders are punishing them for having a lazy balance sheet, if
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that's the way.
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the right way to say it yeah correct correct i mean that's that's that that's
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been sort of more of the same this has been the
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big critic to to most of these let's call it uh it's rim it was rim grow it was same
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story and rey net
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and we also see it in in the likes as i mentioned from the from the naspa's uh
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process so it
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it was just sort of i think the expectation between a nav that dropped
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4.5 percent and you know no clear direction of what they're going to do with
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the cash
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I think Mr.
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Marker just was utterly, utterly disappointed.
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So, yeah, you know, big drop on that one.
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And then Telcom.
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Yeah, look at this thing.
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Let's call it 66 Rand a share.
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It was in the 20s not so long ago.
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Yeah.
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Telcom is one of those that really, I mean, we often discuss Telcom.
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But, I mean, the one thing.
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which we can give Telcom.
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And this hasn't been the most successful company.
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Yes, we've seen some great movements lately.
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But I mean, a lot of the shareholders were saying, well, look where we came from
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many, many years ago.
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It's sort of still maybe not the most exciting share to be invested in.
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But the one thing that I can give Telcom is the fact that it's sort of shown you
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that a state-owned enterprise.
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government-owned company can actually become a publicly traded company and do it
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successfully.
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And this is what this results has told us again.
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I mean, we're looking at HIPPS, and remember, this is just a trading
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statement.
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HIPPS is going to be up anything between 45% and 55%.
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So, the EPS is looking good.
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When you look at the company, they've done a few things.
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Yes, there was the The retirement.
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loss that they had last year, which was about 451.
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They've rectified that now.
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There was some restructuring cost the previous year, which accumulated to just
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close to 120 million rand.
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And then they had a few disposals of the properties,
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which was originally recorded as, I think, something like close to 200 million rand,
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ended up being 650 million rand, those gains from those properties.
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There's been a few ones in Telcom that said, I looked through the results and
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I thought it looked pretty good.
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I mean,
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there's been some pretty solid cash generation within Telcom.
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And again, just re-editoring again, showing that a state-owned enterprise,
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a company that's government-owned.
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can actually transition into age.
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Hopefully they all can.
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Maybe we'll take the example.
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How have telecom got it right?
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Is it because they're in the right sector, in a booming sector, or is it because of
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management?
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And is it because of the government saying, okay, we'll appoint these people,
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now get on with it, we won't interfere.
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And also corruption, hopefully,
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has disappeared from those dark days that we almost got used to at one point.
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Okay, I'm going to put you on the spot now.
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What do you do with both of those shares if you don't have them?
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I don't have them.
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I would definitely not sell my RaiNet.
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I mean, I still think there's more than a 50%
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probability that there's going to be some winding up of RaiNet.
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I mean, you're not going to sit with 5.5 billion euros.
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Like I said, more than 80% of the company, and you're not going to do anything.
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So I think markets have been disappointed today, but those disappointments sort of
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create opportunities.
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So.
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I would definitely be leaning towards buying Renet.
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And remember where we started this podcast today.
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You asked me, we're in the doldrums.
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We're in the doldrums.
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We don't know where to go.
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I mean, the market, you know, the companies that's been expensive have now
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become a hell of a lot more expensive.
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And the companies that's been cheap is somewhat cheaper.
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And you're referring to the likes of Naspers, Process, all these companies that
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traded at...
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very, very attractive levels in the beginning of 2026.
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That is trading 23, 24, 26% lower now.
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So these companies have been becoming actually more attractive.
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So I think a company like Renet do give you some margin of safety,
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if you know what I mean.
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I mean, it gives you some moat to invest in a company which still trades well below
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its
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net.
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intrinsic value, but I still believe that they're not going to do nothing with the
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cash.
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I think there's going to be some wind-up and I still put that more than a 50%
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probability.
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So yeah, I'll be a buyer of that.
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I don't know if I'm going to be buying Telkom yet.
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One swallow.
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On a pullback, would you do so?
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I mean, if it came back into the mid-50s, for example?
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I'm currently invested in MTN and it's been very, very kind.
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kind to us over the past year.
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And it does seem like they're doing very similar structures there as well.
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They've got very, with their fintech focus, they're creating a lot of cash.
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For me to go and sell my MTNs and buy Telcom,
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it will be more going from a company that's already sort of,
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it's got the train on its roller tracks to a company that now seems to be getting
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that train on the track.
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I want to see another set of results for Telcom before I...
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You also mentioned Northern Hemisphere going into the summer.
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Let's call it one swallow don't make a summer.
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Okay, very good.
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Something else that's been bugging me since we last spoke, because it's been the
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word trillion.
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There's trillion everywhere.
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A company called Micron that most of us hadn't heard of two years ago is now worth
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a trillion dollars market
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capitalization-wise.
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There's going to be a trillion-dollar IPO in June.
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You might know the fellow.
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Elon Musk.
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The company is
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SpaceX, which is an AI company with a few rockets and satellites for Starlink
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added on.
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And it could create the world's first trillionaire in that very same Elon Musk.
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I don't know, maybe it's because I'm poor.
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Maybe it's because, I don't know,
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I don't like talking about money too much despite my job.
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I find it distasteful, almost perverse, that one human being can have a trillion.
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It shouldn't be allowed.
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There should be an immediate cut, a cut-off, scoop-off of all his money,
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the froth off the top and get given to something.
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I don't know how it would be managed, but I don't know, Scal.
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People say, well done, aren't you fantastic?
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And he just sits there with this money, making more babies.
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I think he's got 12 now.
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And the names.
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I mean, it's got the weirdest names.
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Let's unpack what you just mentioned.
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I mean, we're sitting, I mean, it is crazy to think.
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I mean, yeah, you mentioned Micron, and we were talking about
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SpaceX, you know, both.
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Micron are now a trillion dollar company.
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Also AI.
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also with the the chip shortages totally understandable why that's running yeah
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space egg is literally gonna
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gonna gonna list and become a trillion dollar company but why i said
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let's need to unpack this If we look at, it hasn't been 10 years.
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In actual fact,
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it hasn't been eight years since the first company gone above the trillion
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dollar mark.
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And just for interest sake, Apple.
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Apple became the first trillion dollar company in August 2018.
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And shortly thereafter, we know Amazon followed, and Microsoft followed, and
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Nvidia followed.
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Today.
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NVIDIA, not even 10 years later,
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NVIDIA now is more than a $5 trillion company.
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And sort of, oh, it's expected.
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Wasn't it only last year that NVIDIA went through the trillion, the $1 trillion
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mark?
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Or is my calendar off?
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No, no, they went through the $3 trillion mark last year.
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But you're right.
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They were sort of a late bloomer.
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They were a late bloomer to go into that.
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That trillion dollar mark.
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No, it's crazy.
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I wrote an article and hopefully it will be published in the next day or thing,
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which is waiting for the powers of being to approve.
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And it's exactly that.
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I'm looking at this and I hear things which I've heard before.
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We've got massive shortages.
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That's why we...
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I mean, I was a recent purchaser of some of these...
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products that's got shortages.
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And I've told you that I've participated in this.
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So I'm sort of the helping hand, you know, getting these prices upwards.
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But it shouldn't be trading.
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We've had exactly the same thing in the early
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2000s where you had the internet just
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distorted.
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Everybody said, well, the internet is going to take over everything.
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We've often had this conversation.
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But for you to have the internet.
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You needed a computer.
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There was no such thing as having the internet on my phone or something else.
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You needed a PC.
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You needed a PC to actually have the internet.
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And when you look at PC prices back in 2000, and I recall, I forgot this.
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My kids were fairly small in 2000, 2001.
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And we were told that you will need to.
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Get your kids exposed to a computer.
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That's going to be the future.
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They're not going to go into libraries.
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They're going to go into the thing called internet, and that's how things are going
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to so we got our kids in it was 2001 or
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2001.
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I still recall I went in.
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The shop still exists.
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Went to a local tech shop,
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and I still told the salesman or let's call it the technician there, I need a...
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I need a computer for my kids.
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And he went like, ooh, there's so many shortages.
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And I said, well, okay, what are we looking at?
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He said, well, you can look at a Pentium 3, but the new Pentium 4 just came out,
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and you're pretty much going to need that because to run the internet and run these
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software for the kids, you're going to need this,
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but you shouldn't be short-sighted because you're buying it for the future.
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You're buying it for your kids' future.
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And I can...
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still remember, Lindsay, I can still remember the battery.
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It was 15,000 Rand back then.
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That was a lot.
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Yeah, 15,000 Rand.
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And we know the end of that.
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Five years later, I couldn't use that PC4 doorstop.
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It was a massive thing.
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I can still recall.
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We're standing on this desk, but it stood the whole desk.
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I know screens were big.
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It's not flat screens.
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But it was this massive, heavy thing, which...
18:40
And became quickly very obsolete.
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I mean, five years later, that was it.
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No, what is that thing on the desk, Dad?
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Go and get me a new one.
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Yes, back then, I mean, it was something like a, it had 8 gig of,
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256 gig of RAM.
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Today, a normal phone starts off with a, let's call it 8 gig of RAM.
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That's the memory of the phone.
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You look at the processor, it was something like,
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a normal phone that you hold in the palm of your hand has got six times the speed,
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the processing speed.
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You can go on.
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How technology progressed, but more importantly, in less than two years later,
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there was not that shortage.
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You could get a PC.
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I want to get this final one before you go.
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Because this is an important one.
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I just had a look.
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Because I was thinking about this, I went and had a look.
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You know, the two biggest computer companies, people that manufacture
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computers, very similar to...
19:49
the company's manufacturing semiconductors today was IBM and Dell.
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Now, that four-year buildup to the, let's call it the dot-com bubble,
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which is 2000, 1996 to 2000, IBM's share price increased by 400%
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in years of great part.
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Dell, 3,600% in four years' time.
20:14
That's what IBM and Dell did.
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Do you want to know what it did in the next two years?
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Go on.
20:20
It dropped by 60% for IBM and 250%
20:25
in Dell's just because there was something.
20:29
So you're hearing the same stories, but it's a completely different world.
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Now, this is the argument that people will say.
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They'll say, I'll say to them, well, you're talking about a chip shortage.
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You know what the best cure for a shortage is?
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It's a shortage because that means that people start, other companies start.
20:46
producing more other farmers start producing more of the crop that is in
20:52
short supply or something so when the
20:54
shortage comes it soon sorts itself out because then supply starts to increase now
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what the
20:59
clever people the ai people says no no no it's different this time you
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can't you can't make no one can make the same sort of chips as nvidia or micron or
21:11
who whatever
21:13
companies i don't even know if they make chips, but whichever company is.
21:14
the Taiwanese company.
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And you'll say, oh, that's right.
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So let me buy NVIDIA at $220 a share.
21:23
And before you know it, there'll be people in the future giving the same sort of
21:28
story to their
21:30
interviewer about what happened to the AI stock market at one point.
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A big, big fall.
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Can it happen?
21:36
Is it going to happen soon?
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Can happen, definitely.
21:39
Soon?
21:39
I'm not so sure, Skunk.
21:41
You've got to stick with it, I think.
21:43
I've got no doubt that we're going to have this exactly same conversation.
21:48
What was it, Buffett, that said the four most dangerous words in investment is this
21:53
time is different?
21:55
Micron, I mean, here's a typical example.
21:57
This is a company that we didn't even put part of the conversation.
22:02
Not years ago.
22:03
We're talking about weeks ago.
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Exactly.
22:06
Now it's a trillion-dollar company because it is now got
22:12
the spending on its infrastructure to help with
22:17
AI and semiconductor needs.
22:21
That just shows that there's already companies that's going to be
22:25
participating.
22:27
There's going to be more and more competition.
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Yes, maybe not from today to tomorrow, but we're going to look back at this.
22:33
And just when you've got the time, Lindsey, you and all the listeners now,
22:38
just go and look at a graph.
22:40
You can go and...
22:42
Pull the graph.
22:44
It's the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index.
22:46
Now, that's pretty much your semiconductor.
22:46
That's the NVIDIA.
22:47
That's the company.
22:49
Isn't the code PHLX or something like that?
22:52
I seem to remember.
22:53
Yeah, you're right.
22:53
I don't have it in front of me now, so I can't tell you exactly.
22:56
But it's the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index.
22:59
That thing looks exactly like the graphs looked like back in the days with the IBMs
23:05
and the Dells.
23:07
And I've got no doubt we're going to look back at this graph and she remembered
23:10
that.
23:10
that massive spikes look at this we'll see eventually see the the um
23:17
supply catching up to to the demand and actually i i reckon eventually the demand
23:24
uh the supply will will outstripped again the
23:27
the demand very similar to what we see i mean where's your shortages in any mobile
23:33
phone today
23:35
which i just mentioned it's got all the capacity of any six times the capacity 15
23:40
times the capacity of a computer
23:42
20 years ago.
23:44
Where's the, I mean, there's a massive, massive supply,
23:47
way more than the demand.
23:49
You can go and buy yourself 10 mobile phones today, no worries.
23:54
That's going to happen with these, let's call it semiconductors,
23:59
these GPUs and RAM and those things that people need to run the AI.
24:06
It's going to improve.
24:09
and eventually, I've got no doubt, this growth, we're going to look back and say,
24:14
oh, man, it was clear as day light.
24:16
It's a question of the timing, Scout.
24:18
The person that rings the bell and says, that's it, look at the index that you've
24:22
just been describing,
24:24
just look at the share prices, look at the NASDAQ if you want to.
24:27
It's topping now.
24:28
It will happen.
24:29
I'm waiting for the three gaps, of course, the breakaway gap, the runaway gap, and
24:35
the exhaustion gap.
24:37
And when that comes,
24:39
oh my goodness stand aside um the dollar ran today sixteen thirty six which is
24:43
unchanged
24:45
the british pound against the rand Where's that thing gone?
24:46
It's 21.97 and the euro round is 19.04, the euro dollar 1.1640.
24:52
The gold price having a tough time.
24:55
Is that correct?
24:56
It's 44.33, down one and two thirds percent.
25:00
Platinum is down one and two thirds percent as well to
25:04
19.20 per ounce.
25:08
And the palladium price is going in the opposite direction.
25:11
It's up 2% to 14.16.
25:14
dollars per ounce let's have a look at other commodities now because oil price
25:21
had a lovely day yesterday and it's not having such a nice day today
25:23
because brent crude oil is 96.53 still very high but nonetheless down just over
25:27
three percent on the day west
25:29
texas 90.72 which is down 3.4 copper price six dollars
25:33
31.62 cents per pound and that is down
25:40
0.8 percent Okay,
25:42
S&P 500 futures consistently making new record highs since we last spoke, Skulk.
25:48
Today, just down a smidgen, 7,528 for the June futures, which are soon to become
25:55
spot.
25:57
What else have we got?
25:57
So that continued bond yield, 8.48%.
26:00
That's six basis points weaker, down for the yield, that is, and Bitcoin.
26:06
The U.S.
26:07
is sorry, I didn't put the U.S.
26:09
in there.
26:10
Let me do that first.
26:10
Because the bonds have been rallying and the yields have been falling recently.
26:14
Currently 4.472 the US 10-year.
26:19
And finally Bitcoin, which is 75,300.
26:25
It's been going in the sort of wrong direction, actually.
26:28
It's normally, there's some relationship has been broken between Bitcoin and the
26:33
market.
26:33
But anyway, it's down 1.6% today, 75,300 and changed, as I said.
26:40
Should we go back to the JSC scale and look at some ups and downs?
26:45
We've mentioned a couple of them.
26:46
What have you got?
26:48
Yeah, I think the only one that we could maybe add, which was sort of a major hit,
26:54
head-turner, is Richemont. What happened?
26:59
That was up.
27:00
It was just, there was a UBS analyst actually upgraded his bar rating.
27:06
I think it went from...
27:08
from 182 Swiss franc to
27:11
186. And there's some of the local companies also upgraded their views.
27:16
So it's just an upbeat, very, very upbeat view and expectations on Richemont.
27:23
Seems like they look at the cost should come down, meaning that gold price don't
27:29
seem,
27:29
which is the input cost, don't seem to be running as hectically anymore.
27:33
So yeah, the general consensus is it's looking good.
27:37
Looking good for Richemont.
27:38
Share price up 4.5% today.
27:40
Yes, indeed.
27:41
Telcom was the big winner today, 11.45% higher.
27:45
I've got on the close, 66 Rand 27.
27:48
Richemont up 4.4%.
27:51
TFG, 2.5% to the good.
27:53
Motus, 2.3%.
27:55
And Optasia, 2.2% higher.
27:58
On the downside, Renet is topping the bad boys, 10.5% weaker.
28:03
Sassl down 6.25% at 2.08%.
28:08
And Tungela down 4.8% with Redefine weighing in with a loss of four and a
28:13
quarter.
28:14
Pan-African Resources down 3.1%. Skulk, any other stories before we go to the
28:20
indices?
28:21
Any other wisdom you want to impart, Skulk?
28:23
No, I think I've left you with way, way too many things to go and ponder about,
28:28
Mark.
28:29
Okay, so give us the closing indices then, please.
28:32
J.C.
28:32
closed today at 115,420.
28:36
27 points.
28:37
That is down 0.34%. Resources took a mighty clap.
28:42
1.71% down, while the industrials were up 65 basis points.
28:46
Financials down 11 basis points, and asset property index, that was down 89 basis
28:52
points.
28:52
Look at the turnover.
28:53
Fairly slow day today.
28:56
I mean, I remember not too long ago where we wished we could suppose a 20 billion
29:03
day,
29:03
but today, I think a 22 billion day as traded today would be considered a fairly
29:09
quiet and slow day.
29:11
So yeah, in general, I thought not a bad day.
29:13
Well done, Skalk.
29:13
Thanks very much for your input.
29:15
Skalk Lowe is a portfolio manager at PSG Wealth Old Oak in Cape Town.
29:18
That was the 5 o'clock shadow.
29:20
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