Latest / Trumponomics / 34: Japan Just Can't Catch a Break

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34: Japan Just Can't Catch a Break · Trumponomics

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: This episode of Bloomberg Benchmark is sponsored by HSBC, winner
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: of Trade Finance America's sixteen Company Award for Best Supply
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: Chain Finance Bank in North America HSBC. Where ambition connects
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: with opportunity? Is it yen intervention like a term that
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: is out there? If not, it totally should be and
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: I should Trade market. Hello and welcome back to the
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Benchmark podcast. I'm Daniel Moss, Executive editor for Global
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: Economics of Bloomberg. My colleague Tory, stillwell, fresh from a
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: two week vacation in Europe, joins US in Washington. Ako
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: is on leave. Tory, welcome back, Thank you, thank you.
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  Speaker 1: I was in France, Switzerland and Italy, but I worked
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: for it because I ran a marathon at the very beginning.
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: You want attempted to go to Japan. No, not this
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: time around. Well, poor Japan. It can be forgiven for
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: feeling a bit beaten last weekend attending the spring meetings
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: of the International Monetary Fund and G twenty. That's the
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: Group of twenty, the ministers and central bankers of the
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: world's largest economies. It's finance minister one little sympathy for
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: the pain being caused by a strong a end. But
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: it wasn't supposed to be that way. Let's take a
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: step back. While these days China gets all the buzz,
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: there was a time not too long ago when serious
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: people thought Japan's economy was going to swallow the world.
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: It was once the world's second largest economy by a
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  Speaker 1: long way, and it still matters as the world's third
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  Speaker 1: largest economy, a major American ally, and an anchor of
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  Speaker 1: security in the post World War two Pacific. That's right,
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: But ever since a stock and property market bubble burst
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: in the early nineties, authorities there have been experimenting with
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: ultra low interest rates, bond purchases, and fiscal expansion. The
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: Bank of Japan was actually a pioneer of quantitative easing,
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: subsequently adopted by most major economies, including here in the US,
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: and yet it's stuck or worse. A bold effort a
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  Speaker 1: reflation by Prime Minister Shinzo Arbe and Bank of Japan
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  Speaker 1: Governor Hirohiko Kuroda got off to a promising start, but
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: appears to installed. Not only is the yen doing the
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: opposite of what it should be doing, but the I
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: M F forecast the economy will probably shrink this year.
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  Speaker 1: Thanks for nothing. Well, let's let's unpack that for just
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: a second. So we're saying that the yen is doing
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: the opposite of what it should be doing. So the
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: economy isn't doing great, it's struggling, and yet the yen
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: is strengthening. Is that right? Yes, and it's strengthening even
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: though they really throw in the kitchen sink at the
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: economy as far as monetary policy is concerned. So joining
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: us on the phone to help us make some to
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: all this from Tokyo after just returning from the I
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: m F meetings is Bloomberg story. Fudioka, So you travel
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: a lot with the finance minister, and you're actually in
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: d C with him this weekend. How's your how's your
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: jet lag hanging up? Oh? But you know it's getting better? Good? Thanks,
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: thanks for having me today. Of course, thanks for joining us.
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: So um so this did not sound It was a
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: happy meeting here in Washington with all these finance ministers.
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: And at this point, several years into abonomics and karudonomics,
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: the place was supposed to be flying. Japan was supposed
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: to be doing a lot better. What gives? Yeah, I
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: mean that's right, hasn't had much good news decently have
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: to give you an idea. Japan economy contracted in the
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: final and to see a good chance of another contractionary
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: too much. At the same as, they pointed out that
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: ye strengthening deversing weakening trends in the past few years
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: since I mister I became too power. I mean, that's
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: a big contept for Polihemic because overall it is squeezes
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: the Javanese corporate profit, makes them cautious of our investment
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: and raising wages, so that stopping the economic badge cycle.
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: So that's why Javanese finance Miss tartle as all pride
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  Speaker 1: hard to get some sympathy from G twenty Last weekend,
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  Speaker 1: he told at the G twenty diner that disorder or
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: accessible currency movements und terble and at one or one
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: meeting with the historiary secondary Jack Clu, he said he
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  Speaker 1: has a deep concert with recently appreciation and repeated this
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: is the currency movements are und leveled. It's unusual for
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: Japanese finance mister to express his concert on follign exchange
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: in markets in this excess way. But what happened was
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: within twenty four hours after as we spoke to reporters,
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  Speaker 1: Jack Crew said, Japanese to proce some secret demand and
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: markets are moving alday despite PFC engaged. That indicated a
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  Speaker 1: create difference with asshole, and that's investors took it as
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  Speaker 1: a big non overroo the US for Japan interming in
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: markets even if it wants it a frustrating moment for
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: Japanese officials. Clearly, what about the decline in oil toro
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: That was supposed to be a good thing, but that
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: really hurt the efforts to reflect the economy. You know,
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  Speaker 1: I think to providing some support to consumers epifies those
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: in living in the la areas. So oil placed troup
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: has pushed down the lid of infreation. So unlike other
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  Speaker 1: major nations, the Japan has experienced deecreation for about sixty years,
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  Speaker 1: So the program decreation has a big crisp potaban company's
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: pussholes to keep their decreation in mindset. I want to
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: also put put this in context a little bit. So
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: when we're talking about the strengthening in UM, if we're
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: comparing it to the darts up just about ten percent
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  Speaker 1: this year, and that's the second most of most of
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: the major currencies in the world. That seems like quite
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  Speaker 1: a significant move. But how does that compare two years
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  Speaker 1: past up until this year? I think since we started
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: a Yeah, we can the twenty patents of saty patents,
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: so so this could be just some unwinding of that. Then, yeah,
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: that's true, that's true. But if you think it was weird,
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  Speaker 1: Javan started it, but it went absolutely seventy five point
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: thirty five and the companies are really struggling with the
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: level that has improved. But companies, it's better for now.
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  Speaker 1: Companies have a weekend yet and life in Japan is
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: still pretty comfortable. People still make a good living. There's
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: no sense of crisis. Does any of it matter in
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: the short term, yes, I mean like that's probably why
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: we haven't had major changes in the compolicies. But in
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: the long term that's got via concer and who knows
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: what's going to happen with if I continues to have
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: at the creature and why we have one of the
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: biggest system by that, well, it's been great. You could
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: join us, so soon after arriving home get some they
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: do so after a word from our sponsor, will be
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: back with our next guest. This episode of Bloomberg Benchmark
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: is sponsored by HSBC, with over eight thousand global relationship
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: managers on the ground in over sixty countries. HSBC mixture
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: Global Ambition their local business HSBC Well, our next guest
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: is also no stranger to Japan or Japanese economics. Jeff Young.
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: You've been following the country for a couple of decades,
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: including a stint as chief economist at City Group in Tokyo.
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: You now have your own firm called Deep Macro. It's
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: great you could join us. You know, listening to Taru
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  Speaker 1: makes me wonder whether this current condition is really just
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  Speaker 1: normal for Japan and the decades after World War Two
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  Speaker 1: that saw the spectacular growth work light with the aberration. Yeah,
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  Speaker 1: I think that there's something to be said for that. Um.
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  Speaker 1: Right after World War Two there was an enormous amount
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  Speaker 1: of reconstruction that had to happen UM, an enormous amount
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  Speaker 1: of the labor force that had to be brought into
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  Speaker 1: the modern economy, and an enormous catch up that had
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: to be done with the United States and the other
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  Speaker 1: advanced countries. Japan pretty much reached that point. Uh some
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  Speaker 1: you know, in the late nineteen eighties, the early nineties
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  Speaker 1: UM and since then it's been dealing with problems like
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: the demographic issues. And for a country undergoing Japan's demographic shifts,
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  Speaker 1: I think this really does raise a question how fast
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: can you expect to grow? Right? But many other countries
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  Speaker 1: are also facing huge demographic issues that will catch up
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: with them sooner or later. And yet Japan really does
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  Speaker 1: seem to be mired in this environment where they can't
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  Speaker 1: get inflation to pick up no matter what they do,
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  Speaker 1: where the economy is starting to struggle and is obviously
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  Speaker 1: creating concern out there. I mean, is this something unique
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  Speaker 1: to Japan though, that that no matter what they try
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  Speaker 1: to do, they just can't get it going like they want. Well,
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  Speaker 1: I think that there's a couple of things to point out.
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  Speaker 1: You're entirely correct that there are many countries who have
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: similar demographics at least looking forward, but Japan was you know,
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  Speaker 1: they have, they aged much faster than anybody else if
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  Speaker 1: you look at things like the old age dependency ratio,
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: if you look at things like the change of the
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: working age population, Japan sort of hit the skids in
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: terms of UM demographics being favorable for growth you know,
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  Speaker 1: quite a bit before. But I think that what you're
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: pointing to if if um, you know, I would extent
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  Speaker 1: that is that you know, countries like Korea, UM, you know,
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  Speaker 1: they have you know, a somewhat japan Esque future to
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  Speaker 1: look at, at least in terms of whether demographics are going.
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  Speaker 1: The other thing that I think has something to do
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  Speaker 1: with the deflation, although it's been an awful long time
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  Speaker 1: h is Japan also had its financial crisis UM, a
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  Speaker 1: big one UM and it in the ninety nineties, and
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  Speaker 1: the slow response to that UM the near collapse of
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  Speaker 1: the banking system once twice, three times UH. The impact
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  Speaker 1: that that has had throughout the economy seems to be
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  Speaker 1: very very deep rooted. UM. Difficult to quantify, especially given
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  Speaker 1: that the crisis has been over for an awful long time,
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  Speaker 1: but it does seem to have had a long term
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  Speaker 1: negative effect on sentiment that officials, including Governor Kuroda, have
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  Speaker 1: continuously pointed out that they're really trying their best to undo.
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  Speaker 1: And I think that maybe the banking crisis one of
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  Speaker 1: the root causes of that. The demographic issues have been
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: pretty well documented. I mean, if you flip through late
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: night TV and a hotel in Tokyo, you'll come across
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: lots of ads for adult diapers, an adult daycare. Is
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: there something beyond that? Let's talk about the term kiretsu
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: yes UM. The Japanese industrial groupings, usually with a bank
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: UM at the center. UM. They'd have UM generally speaking,
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: you know, manufacturing companies and insurance company UM. A lot
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  Speaker 1: of different UM companies in an industrial grouping UH, and
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  Speaker 1: a lot of the business would take place within those
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  Speaker 1: groups UM. I don't think that they've had such a
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  Speaker 1: role in the economy UM recently. One thing that really
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  Speaker 1: has been noticeable during the period of deflation or very
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: close to deflation, is the relationship between small firms and
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: arge firms, where there has been just a continuing grinding
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: pressure from the large firms towards their smaller suppliers to
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: please cut your prices. We're not going to pay you
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  Speaker 1: more this year. In fact, we're going to pay you
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: a little bit less, and that has had a very
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: UH that has had a pretty strong deflationary impact of
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  Speaker 1: the economy because the small businesses employ a lot of people,
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: so if they're receiving every year a little bit less
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: for the products they produce, that has meant that every
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: year they've been having to pay their workers a little
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: bit less. UH. And that has I think been one
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  Speaker 1: of the structural forces if you look at the how
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: the corporate sector is arranged, that has contributed to this
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: undertow let's say, of deflation and also contributing to that.
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: Just kind of bringing it back to the conversation that
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: we had earlier at the top of the show, is
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: the strengthening in And you know, at the I m
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: F meetings Japan really didn't get a lot of sympathy
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: UM Trosury Secretary Jack lou here in the US really
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: urged them to just kind of ride this out, to
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: not engage in any intervention to weaken their currency. Is
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: I'm curious about this is yen intervention like a term
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: that is out there? If not, it totally should be
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: and I should trade market. I hadn't heard it. Actually,
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: I'm I have not either, and it's kind of surprising.
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: That's a good one. UM. I think Look, the G
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: twenty UM have a longstanding UH policy against intervention unless
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: markets are disoriented disorderly UM. And I think that they're saying, look, UM,
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: the yen has appreciated but it hasn't really appreciated in
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: a disorderly fashion yet. I think that there's a general
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: unease globally also with this whole phenomenon of negative interest
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: rates UM. Japan wasn't the first to go negative. You know,
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: they're probably the first towards zero UM long ago UM,
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: so Japan can certainly say, look, we're not unique there.
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: But I do think that when they rather surprisingly cut
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: their part of their indust rate, it's only very small
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: portion of the whole structure, but some of the indust
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: rates below zero in January this year, that did seem
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: to represent a broadening um of the whole negative industrate
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: phenomenon from Europe, where several central banks maintain some form
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: of negative rates, now Japan has it. You have some
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: people talking about it in the US, but I think
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: that that's just uncharted territory so UM. On the monetary side,
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: there does seem to be a sense of let's not
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: do anything dramatic and let's try to see if what
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: China is doing in terms of stimulating the economy of
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: fiscal policy um UM, tightening up regulations on capital outflows
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: a little bit more. Maybe that's enough to sort of
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: stabilize the global industrial cycle and to stabilize the emerging markets,
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: which were really the locate the locus of the weakness
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: last year. And there's also been some talk of helicopter money.
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: Uh in Japan. Would you walk us through that idea
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: a little bit? Sure? Um, it really is basically a
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: tax cut or fiscal spending that is financed by the
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: central bank rather than the government issuing debt. So another
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: one of these very unorthodox measures. Yes, I think so,
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: And you could argue that Japan has implicitly done this before. UM.
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: But the I think the arguments that it might be
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: bigger or even more radically. If the Bank of Japan
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: is buying the bonds that would be issued in order
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: to finance this fiscal expansion, maybe they would just stuff
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: them in the drawer and not ask to be repaid
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: when um they come to This would be a true monetization. UM.
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: I don't think that Japan is there, but there has
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: been some talk of that, and I think that there's
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: a very important distinction between the circumstances in which perhaps
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: helicopter money is appropriate and the circumstances that the Japan
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: faces right now. You know, Jeff and Tory. It feels
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: like there's a real element of tragedy to this. You
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: have these two guys, Are and Corona. They've done a
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: lot since they've been in office, and yet it seems
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: like they're swimming against these long term forces and in
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: the case of oil, a bit of bad luck that
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: are just thwarting them. I mean, it does seem like
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: a tragedy. Really, can two men really make a difference?
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: This would suggest not well. I think that there are
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: a couple of the couple of big forces that we've
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: spoken about. The first is demographics. The second would be
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: just the very large level of public debt, which you know,
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: I would I would argue that your colleague Tour referred
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: to indirectly when he talked about the consumption tax, Like
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: the reason why the Ministry of Finance has consistently wanted
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: to hike this tax is to raise revenue, to begin
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: to slow the debt, the pace of debt accumulation, and
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: maybe to reduce it eventually. And this is essentially just
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: a sales tax. That's true. But the problem is that
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: Japan has so much debt um as a result of
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: these past fiscal stimulus packages, as a result of just
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: the weakness of the economy, um that the public is
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: now expecting these tax hikes pretty regularly. And so if
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: you have really poor demographics and you have, um a
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: public that expects tax hikes to pay for those, it's
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: not clear that the countercyclical measures that the Prime Minister
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: and the Governor of the Central Bank have been implementing
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: are really enough to change the tide. You can certainly
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: affect growth for a little while, which is which has happened,
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: but you tend to go back into that sort of
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: negative equilibrium of a very very slow decline. I thought
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: we'd closed with a bit of historical perspective. You know,
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: the way people talked about Japan back in the late
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: eighties in the early nineties, there was a real sense
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: that was going to swallow the world. Everyone was struggling
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: to adopt Japanese decision making practices. No c suite was
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: complete without books lying around called things like oh, I
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: don't know the Toyota way or a japan that can
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: say no. It feels a little embarrassing in retrospect. Should
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: we have known better? And is there another Asian country
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: we're making the same mistake about? Well? I think I
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: know where you're going there, and I think that we
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: may indeed be making that mistake. UM. I would just
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: say is from my experience as an economist that it's
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: very difficult to separate out the micro foundations of success
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: and failure versus the macro ones. Um. Everything that you
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: just mentioned were uh, micro economic strengths of Japan, many
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: of which they still have. And as you pointed out,
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: you know, there are some very good firms. It's a
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: great place to live now, especially given that it's not
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: as expensive as it used to be. But if you
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: have too much debt um and if you have a
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: banking crisis, um, and then you compound that with the demographics,
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: the best corporate sector in the world is going to
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: have trouble growing. And with respect to China, perhaps that
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: question is becoming a legitimate one. Clearly, there are a
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: lot of good Chinese companies. There's obviously a very vibrant UH.
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: I don't know what the right word is, acquisitive, capitalistic ethic,
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: real growth ethic out there. But if China continues to
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: accumulate debt at the rate that it has been um,
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: will that become as big of a constraint on growth
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: as it has in Japan. I think it's a macroeconomy.
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: I'd have to say it might well. Jeff, we could
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: talk about this for quite a while, but we've got
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: to wrap it up. Thanks for sharing your perspective with us,
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: and thanks to all of you for listening to Bloomberg Benchmark.
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: We'll be back next week. Until then, you can find
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