Latest / Winning With Winans! / Protect Your Portfolio Before the Next Bear Market | Ken Winans' Defensive Investing Strategy
Transcript
- speaker-0: I do not think we are going into a severe bear market anytime soon. Now, my job is to forecast. I'm not, I mean, no one knows the absolute top. And the absolute bottom. And I do think we're gonna have volatility as we go through earnings season, which starts this week. I do see a lot of those kind of things. But what I'm trying to say is you need to get together with your advisors and you need to ask some basic questions on strategy. What whatever you use as a as a device to monitor the market, I look at the 200-day moving average of my own indices and certainly of the SP 500 500 and the Dow Industrial Average. But you need to set ask your people, what is the defensive game plan? Just like in sporting events, every NFL team has defense. Just like the military, we have defensive strategies. You have to have a defensive strategy in your portfolio. And I think it is foolhardy to go in, especially if you're middle-aged and you you've worked hard and you made all this money, and your advisor tells you, we're in this in for the long run. Well, I don't know what the heck long run means when you're middle-aged, but I'll tell you what, I saw a lot of people in 2008, 2009 that had to move their retirement to indefinite because they had taken such a mauling in that market. Folks, talk to your advisors about things you could do. Should you raise cash? Should you change in investments? Should you look at hedges? Should you look at things like stock options? Should you look at putting money into areas that are not correlated to the stock market? My point is simply this. Ask these questions now, not when all heck breaks loose. Because one thing I can tell you, when stock markets fall, they fall fast. And look, we just had a little bit of a preamble for this in 2022, for those of you who remember it. The market went down that year because interest rates went up. Now we all knew it was going to happen, but again, a lot of people they took some pretty big hits. The COVID situation, when the markets went down that March, 38%. A lot of people were scared. A lot of people sold at the bottom and didn't get back in, believe it or not. Again, you gotta have a strategy here. So my Forbes article called Financial Storms, I would encourage everybody to go read it. It lays out my scenario of what I'm looking at on the big trends, big micro trends or macro trends of things that I think that could go wrong that could trigger the next big bear market, and that we are all at least aware of it. Okay. And it it's common sense things. I know we talked before about things like private equity that can have liquidity problems. commodities can be over-leveraged. I mean, you can go on and on and on. look at what happened with cryptocurrency with some of the investigations going on now. Anything can blow up. There is nothing to save, including treasury bonds. You can get creamed in treasury bonds if you buy them at the wrong time and at the wrong place. So again, caution to the wind. By all means, trend is your friend. The trend's looking pretty good right now. But by all means, ask these questions. Other thing I want to talk about, I get asked a lot about taxes. You should begin to look at doing tax loss selling now. Don't wait till December. Why? Your accountants need to begin to gauge estimated payments. For many of you, you probably do estimated taxes. You need to tell them what you have in losses. You need to tell them what your your strategy is in co in charitable giving. You need to start doing that now, not do a fire drill at the end of the year. So we're going into earnings season. It's gonna like I said in segment one, it's gonna be very volatile, good, bad, and ugly. Let me give you one free piece of advice. Dump your dogs. If they have I don't care who's the CEO, I don't care how wonderful the product might be or this service. If they are if the stock is not performing well and you have losses in it and the earnings just came out and they got hit again, take it. Just get out. there's too many good things to buy. Why sit around in things that are not doing well? And that also includes very popular names. So look for I I personally love companies that most people have never heard of. The CEO could walk into any casino in Las Vegas. Nobody would know who they are, except probably the fact they do have a security guard with them. But I like those kind of companies. And there's a lot of good American companies that fit that camp.