Latest / AG Bull / AG Squawk AM 10/1/2026 with Jed Sidwell | Corn Shocked By Bigger Stocks

Transcript

AG Squawk AM 10/1/2026 with Jed Sidwell | Corn Shocked By Bigger Stocks · AG Bull

• 0:09
  SPEAKER_00: Good morning and welcome to Ag Squawk AM.
• 0:12
  SPEAKER_00: Jed Sidwell here live from Joliet, Illinois.
• 0:15
  SPEAKER_00: Today we're going to be breaking down that grain stocks report that caused the grain market, especially corn, to do what it did yesterday.
• 0:23
  SPEAKER_00: We're going to talk about choice or better grading across cattle feeding states as well as the 10-year treasury yield.
• 0:31
  SPEAKER_00: We'll get to all of that and more here in a bit.
• 0:47
  SPEAKER_00: Live cattle closed up$1.90 at$2.22.
• 0:50
  SPEAKER_00: 70 feeder cattle were up$3.40 at$334.30.
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_00: Lean hogs came back just a little bit though.
• 0:57
  SPEAKER_00: They were down 28 cents at$69.28.
• 1:01
  SPEAKER_00: Shout out to plus$500 real quick before I break down the grain prices.
• 1:06
  SPEAKER_00: And I quote them live here.
• 1:08
  SPEAKER_00: And as I look, corn hasn't bounced back much yet.
• 1:19
  SPEAKER_00: Soybeans are at$12.96 and a half right now.
• 1:23
  SPEAKER_00: Coming back a little bit.
• 1:24
  SPEAKER_00: We can bounce back a little as well.
• 1:26
  SPEAKER_00: It's at uh Chicago, December wheat is at 681 and a half.
• 1:32
  SPEAKER_00: As I quote, or as we turn towards the weather, excuse me, still on the grains in my mind.
• 1:38
  SPEAKER_00: But as we look towards the weather, flash flooding is a big issue and a big narrative across the country right now.
• 1:45
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, it's hard to complain about rain, right?
• 1:48
  SPEAKER_00: But when your house and fields are washing away, you're certainly in your right to.
• 1:52
  SPEAKER_00: And at this point, flash flooding is a big issue this morning in southeastern Nebraska, northern Kansas, West Central Iowa, with a confirmed six plus inches at Lincoln, and well over four at Omaha overnight.
• 2:07
  SPEAKER_00: September will rank among the ten wettests ever for Kansas, Colorado, Nebraska, South Dakota, Iowa, and Ohio.
• 2:17
  SPEAKER_00: Des Moines picked up an incredible 14.5 inches of rain in a month.
• 2:24
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, I'm from Colorado.
• 2:25
  SPEAKER_00: That's more than we'll get in a year.
• 2:28
  SPEAKER_00: That's absolutely crazy for my mind to try and fathom there.
• 2:31
  SPEAKER_00: The grain stocks report, though, is the big headline that's affecting these markets.
• 2:35
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, certainly this these rains don't help, but it was hard to miss that action yesterday when December corn fell from like$5.25 all the way down.
• 2:47
  SPEAKER_00: Uh oh essentially overnight, hit a four handle at one point.
• 2:52
  SPEAKER_00: And here's kind of what cost it.
• 2:54
  SPEAKER_00: Wednesday's grain stocks report pre reprices the corn balance sheet.
• 2:58
  SPEAKER_00: September 1 corn stocks came in at 2.095 billion bushels, 184 million above the Bloomberg survey average, and 15 million over the single highest guess.
• 3:10
  SPEAKER_00: A 173 million miss against the USGS carryout that follows a similar size miss, the same direction that we had last year.
• 3:19
  SPEAKER_00: Very similar story there.
• 3:21
  SPEAKER_00: We'll see how these markets respond today.
• 3:23
  SPEAKER_00: Overnight, not much has changed.
• 3:25
  SPEAKER_00: This headline caught my or this chart caught my eye.
• 3:28
  SPEAKER_00: I had some to pull from it.
• 3:30
  SPEAKER_00: Came from our morning newsletter.
• 3:32
  SPEAKER_00: But I also thought about bringing on some from the Fat Tuesday show, but I'll leave that as kind of a cliffhanger for you all to go and look at the Fat Tuesday show on the premium side.
• 3:43
  SPEAKER_00: It's$25 a month or$250 annually.
• 3:45
  SPEAKER_00: Not only do you get the Fat Tuesday show once a week where we break down whatever is going down in the cattle markets, but you get a daily morning update video from Mike Sands as well that we call before the bell.
• 3:56
  SPEAKER_00: But this chart right here, it's the choice or better grading across the different cattle feeding states that report.
• 4:03
  SPEAKER_00: And we saw just a slight decrease in August, but obviously that blue line, especially at the top Texas up there, they are rallying back hard as well as the other states to more and more cattle going choice or better.
• 4:15
  SPEAKER_00: And we talk about a lot that, you know, well, it's because we have them on feed for longer, we're feeding them to heavier weights.
• 4:22
  SPEAKER_00: That's true.
• 4:23
  SPEAKER_00: The fact the the factor we don't leave out, or that we often leave out, just when it comes to cattle biologically, the longer they stay on feed obviously helps, but their actual age improves to the way that they will grade.
• 4:39
  SPEAKER_00: Now the Packers kind of, you know, fight back up against this by giving age docs, but one that's two or three months older than maybe one of its counterparts has the opportunity, or has a better opportunity, I should say, to grade just a little bit better.
• 4:56
  SPEAKER_00: And something we maybe don't think about from time to time.
• 4:58
  SPEAKER_00: It isn't just the sheer time on feed, the actual age of that animal doesn't hurt either.
• 5:05
  SPEAKER_00: The ten-year treasury yield hit the highest level since 2002.
• 5:08
  SPEAKER_00: The other day it hit the highest level since 2004.
• 5:12
  SPEAKER_00: As global bond route gathers pace, the 10-year treasury bond yield reached a level last night seen in April 2002, rising four basis points to 5.338%, according to LSG data.
• 5:30
  SPEAKER_00: This is key for rates for mortgage borrowing, auto loans, and credit card debt.
• 5:36
  SPEAKER_00: Man, Tommy says it all the time.
• 5:38
  SPEAKER_00: He talks about it with the cow guy whenever he goes on RFD TV.
• 5:42
  SPEAKER_00: Rates drive everything, they affect all markets, and it certainly is right now.
• 5:48
  SPEAKER_00: This is on the economic calendar.
• 5:49
  SPEAKER_00: We have a ton of them yet again today.
• 5:52
  SPEAKER_00: The export sales comes out at 7.30, the same time as jobless claims.
• 5:55
  SPEAKER_00: The SPP Global Manufacturing PMI comes out at 8.45 a.m.
• 6:01
  SPEAKER_00: The ISM Manufacturing Natural Gas Storage Change.
• 6:04
  SPEAKER_00: Those both come or no, the ISM manufacturing comes out at 9.
• 6:08
  SPEAKER_00: Natural gas storage change comes out at 9.30.
• 6:11
  SPEAKER_00: Grain crushings at 2, as well as fats and oils.
• 6:14
  SPEAKER_00: We'll make sure and catch you up on that on Davis Michelson's show this afternoon.
• 6:19
  SPEAKER_00: Well, thank you for watching and following and listening and all of those good things.
• 6:23
  SPEAKER_00: Make sure and catch this show live streaming every single day on X at 8.15 a.m.
• 6:28
  SPEAKER_00: Davis is at 8.15 p.m.
• 6:30
  SPEAKER_00: on the same platform.
• 6:31
  SPEAKER_00: Thank you for watching.
• 6:32
  SPEAKER_00: Thank you for listening.
• 6:33
  SPEAKER_00: I'm Jed Sidwell with Ag Bull Media.
• 6:35
  SPEAKER_00: We're a financial channel that absolutely loves agriculture.
• 6:39
  SPEAKER_00: I'll talk to you tomorrow.