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The Looming Debt Crisis About to Make Everything Worse · Trumponomics

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: What is my biggest worry With food prices, energy prices up,
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: with prospects for recovery much worse. Are we going to
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: see the phenomenon from people on the street unrest creating
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: more difficult environment for policymakers to do the right thing. Hello,
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: and welcome to Stephanomics, the podcast that brings the global
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: economy to you. And there's not much going right in
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: that economy today, with Russia's war in Ukraine sending food
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: and energy prices through the roof, China facing yet another
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: round of disruptive COVID lockdowns, and many policymakers around the
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: world relearning a seventies term stagflation. But as the Managing
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: Director of the International Monetary Fund Krystellina Gorgeva warned us
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: just then in a debate at the recent spring meetings
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: of the World Bank and i AMF, things could definitely worse,
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: especially for vulnerable developing countries still dealing with the legacy
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: of COVID nineteen. So this week we take a long,
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: hard look at the crisis that might be coming down
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: the track for those economies with a report from our
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: Washington based US economy reporter Eric Martin and a conversation
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: with the head of the Institute of International Finance, Tim Adams.
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: We also have a dispatch from Paris asking what comes
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: next for President Emmanuel Macro. He's one re election, but
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: not maybe a positive mandate to get anything done. You
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: want to stick around to hear that piece for the
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: accent alone, but let's hear first about that storm brewing
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: in emerging markets. And we go out every day looking
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: for semmelina, flour, sugar oil. These are the essential things
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: we live on and they're not there. This is unbelievable.
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: Find us a solution, you, politicians, officials, head of state,
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: Find a solution because the day of starvation is coming.
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: Monthly salaries for citizens are weak. They raised the price
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: of fuel, raise the cost of transportation, and raise tax affairs.
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: How are we going to afford this? Find us a
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: solution because this isn't a reasonable situation. That was Hudal Chabbi,
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: a teacher and mother of two children in Tunis, where
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: a cash strapped government has boost to the fuel prices
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: at least four times in just over a year, and
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: where shortages are so rampant that market vendors say it's
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: easier to find marijuana than to buy flower. A slew
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: of financial dangers is pushing emerging markets like Tunisia ever
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: closer to defaulting on their debt. Such a crisis could
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: cause currencies to tumble an inflation to soar. In the
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: parts of the world least able to afford it. The
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: situation may be the most grim and Sri Lanka, where
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: the rupee has lost of its value this year and
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: protesters are calling for the president to resign, But the Ethiopia, Pakistan, Ghana,
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: and Al Salvador are also in debt distress themselves, as
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: soaring food and energy prices grip consumers. We can see
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: this train wreck coming towards us. John Lipsky, a former
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: top official at the i m F, one of many
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: global policymakers who have been sounding the alarm. It's certainly
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: with the latest financial market developments going to push a
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: large number of low income countries into the need for
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: debt restructure. Like so much else, the debt crisis and
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: emerging markets has its origins in the pandemic. Governments across
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: the developing world stepped up their borrowing to cushion the
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: impact from COVID nineteen. Now the costs of servicing those
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: debts are on a steep incline, according to the im
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: METH and the record amount of that debt is held
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: on the balance sheets of local banks in the emerging economies.
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: Those costs are going to keep going up as the
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: Federal Reserve now raises interest rates to combat inflation in
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: the United States, and central banks across the emerging world
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: are forced to do the same. So the fear is
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: that this all leads to a vicious spiral for vulnerable economies,
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: where banks are forced to pull back on lending as
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: economy is slow and the value of the government bonds
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: sitting on their balance sheets keeps going down. A long
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: line of countries is in rescue talks with the I
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: m F. The World Banks chief economist Carmen Reinhardt earlier
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: this month, disruptions from China's new lackdowns from the impacts
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: yet to be fully felt of the Russia Ukraine war
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: on on food prices, on global supplied chains, and if
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: you know, bad came to worse, could there be another
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: episode of financial contagion? All these are risks on the downside.
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: All told, the World Bank estimates sixty of low income
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: countries are in debt distress already or at high risk
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: of it. So far, the trouble is brewing in the
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: sort of off the radar screen places investors don't pay
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: much attention to. It was just such a debt crisis
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: in Russia that led to the near collapse of a
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: large hedge fund long term capital management. Given everyone is
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: suffering from the situation, whether they're rich or poor, we
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: don't buy all we need, including the basics. Every thirty
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: days we buy chicken, which means that we're reading meat
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: once a month. That was Kais al Yazdi, a truck
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: driver in Tunis. He says some commodities are so scarce
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: that neighborhood merchants have the upper hand, forcing consume us
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: to buy extra items to secure a kilogram of flour
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: or oil. To be sure, many developing nations sell more
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: commodities than they buy, and they're benefiting from rising prices.
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: Some countries in Latin America, for example, are seeing soaring exports.
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: Brazil's currency, the Real, is the world's best performing major
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: currency this year, and Chile's exports in March were up
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: more than from a year earlier. Still, even nations profiting
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: from the surgeon. Commodity prices are suffering from their own
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: internal inflation. At the beginning of the year, we started
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: to feel a huge jump in prices, vegetables going up
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: to six five four ice. That's a big jump. That
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: was Mikaio Edgeley, a vegetable seller and Reo vision Iro,
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: talking about his struggles to make ends meet amid soaring inflation.
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  Speaker 1: It could be because of Russia's war, because fertilizers come
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: from there. But the truth is, I don't know. That's
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: what people are saying. But also gasoline is really expensive
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: here eight he is a leader. It's absurd. In Brazil,
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: less than six months ahead of presidential elections, opinion polls
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: show that sevent of the public blames present Hire Bull
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: Snaro's government for a surgeon. Cost of living crisis in
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: Brazil are up eleven point three despite the Central Bank's
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: best efforts to combat it. The problem is that, as
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: in many parts of the world, prices feed off each other,
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: and higher fuel costs make food more expensive too. I
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: feel pressured, really pressured. All the prices are going up
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  Speaker 1: and my salary goes down. It's hard to live this way,
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: you know. M So to talk about some of that
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: and actually just states of them economy. I'm delighted that
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: we have in London this week Tim Adams, chief executive
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: of the Institute for International Finance, which is the global
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: association for the financial industry. And we just heard Tim
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: about the challenges for developing countries. And I know that
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: you and I were both in Washington last week. There
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: was a lot of concern about the dangers coming down
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: the track for them. But I'm struck when I see
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: you doing your interviews today in in in London that
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: what many of the Bloomberg journalists are asking you about
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: is bumper bank results. When you see these positive results
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: for banks, but also some of the data we've had
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: showing quite a strong consumer. Do you think the risk
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: of a recession in the US is overdone? Look, I
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: think being able to pull off the kind of rising
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: rate environment that the Federal Reserve needs to put in
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: place to deal with the most prenacious inflationary pressures we've
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: seen in thirty years. To do that and and have
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: a soft landing is going to be very difficult. I
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: would put the probability so can the federalsor pull it off? Sure?
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: Will they? I don't know, I think the best thing
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: to do is prepare for a harder landing. And Larry
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: sums on the other day, and he definitely doesn't rate
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: their chances well and and and obviously Larry has been
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: ahead of the curb on inflation. He was calling for
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: it before anyone else. Turning now to to the rest
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: of the world, and we've heard in earlier in the
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: in the podcast about the impact on the ground of
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: soaring food and energy prices. We're also looking at supply
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: chains being crunched again. You know, we thought we were
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: kind of coming through the worst of the supply chain pressures,
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: but now with Ukraine and more lockdowns coming into China,
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: we're potentially having a report is called today I want
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: to punch for the global recovery. Is that have things
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: taken a worrying turn When you look at that global picture,
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: it certainly hasn't improved as quickly and as substantially as
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: we would have hoped. We would have thought by now
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: the supply chains righted, we would have hoped that China
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: would have normalized. But with the lockdowns and what appears
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: to be a continuation of the COVID crisis in China,
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: maybe more, even more complex and more difficult than than
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: the Chinese often led on. You have to question whether
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: that more optimistic scenario actually is going to come to fruition.
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: And throw on top of that the war in Ukraine.
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: What that means for food supplies, grains especially, but also
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: fertilizer and for a liveser's key for farmers in the
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: price for lives or is substantially higher than it was
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: a year ago. And one of the very useful things
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: that the Institute for International Finance does is map where
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: capital flows are going in and out of countries, often
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: as a result of things that your member banks are doing,
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: and also look at at how the different movements of debt,
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: whether countries are looking vulnerable because of how much debt
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: they have or how much they're having to pay for it.
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: People like John Nipsky, who we heard in that piece,
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: the former I MF official, He talks about a train
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: wreck coming towards us when he looks at the high
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: levels of debt and some of these quite vulnerable economies,
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: um the fact that the cost of that debt is
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: going up and inflation is going up, squeezing economic growth.
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: Do you see a train wreck coming well, I certainly
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: think there may be a number of small train wrecks.
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: Obviously the commodity producers are doing for the people who
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: are on the other end of the train. But if
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: you're in the commodity producing an exporting business, is a
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: pretty good time for you. You're earning lots of export revenue.
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: But we have seen a record level of emerging market
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: debt is including especially China, but not just China, and
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: the question is how can they service that debt now?
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: The on the good side, a lot of that is
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: long duration and its local currency. The downside is that
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: it's variable rate. So as rates go up and they
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: have to roll that debt even if it's at local currency, Uh,
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: then the cost of service that that's going to go up.
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: The stock of debt is at all time high. We
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: have thirty countries now with debt to GDP ratios of above.
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: So you know it's the It's the old adage from
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: the Hemming Way novel is how did you go bankrupt?
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: Slowly then suddenly? And so we do have to watch
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: a Commodity producers are in better shape than commodity importers,
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: but that could change substantially. Our economists have sort of
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: looked at which countries are most vulnerable to what's happening,
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: and obviously that we've actually particularly highlighted Turkey in Egypt
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: because they're big food importers, so they're paying a lot
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: more for their food and they used to trade a
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: lot with Russia and that trade has been hit. I
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: think Poland also figures on that list. But you have
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: a lot of what you think of as being rather successful,
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: buoyant economies in Asia who are very dependent on those
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: now very expensive food imports. Vietnam, Thailand, Philippines. Are there
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: particular countries that you're worried about, Well, you mentioned Turkey.
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: I was just an instant ball a few weeks ago,
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: and obviously great concerned because you're an energy and food
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: importer uh in. Sunflower oil for example, is a huge
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: staple of the Turkish economy and Ukraine is the principal producer.
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: So in terms of just importing the basics, Turkeys in
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: a bad situation and they're running inflation rates of close
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: to and your rate with a monetary in phiscal policy
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: which is only exacerbating that. So you have unorthodox policies
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: making things worse. UH The Egyptians. I saw them last
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: week during the Spring meetings. They're worried about food imports,
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: although they indicated that they had other opportunities and could
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: wrap up domestic production. But that's just not true of
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: so many places around the world. We've mentioned. We're both
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: in Washington. There was a kind of mixture virtual real
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: meeting of those central bank governors and treasured and finance officials,
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: and I know you would have talked to two lots
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: of them. The scale of this for some of the
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: countries looking at the inflation that we just haven't seen
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: for a long time, as you mentioned, as well as
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: the debt, as well as the fact that FED is
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: raising interest rates and the uncertainties around supply chains that
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: we're seeing. I mean, the sort of institutions that we
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: normally look to the World Bank and the IMF, I mean,
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: they're not a match for any of that, surely. I
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: think they're challenged. I think they're challenged by Ukraine, both
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: directly and indirectly because the spillover effects. I think they're
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: challenged because inflationary ushers suddenly those institutions but walk around
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: the trading floors of any of the major financial institutions.
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: Most of the people on the trading floors weren't born
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: during the previous inflationary episode, and so it's very new
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: for some people. And I think officials really thought that
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: this would be transitory, and it is not. It may
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: not be for a long time, and so it's very
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: different than what was expected twenty four months ago. Tim Adams,
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: thank you very much. Thank you, Stephan. Investors, commentators, policymakers,
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: pretty much everyone was relieved when Emmanuel Macron won the
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: second round of the French presidential election and his far
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: right nationalist opponent Marine le Pen did not. But that
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: victory came not from any burst of enthusiasm for Monsieur
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: kraw but around eight million French men and women voting
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: while holding their nos. It's not a great start to
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: Mr mcrawls second five years in office, and as a
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: risk that his political stock will fall further in June
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: if his party loses its electoral majority. So as Macron
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: won the election but lost his powers. Bloomberg's Caroline Gone
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: in Paris One Mo One More Time by Deaf Punk,
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: the soundtrack of Emmanuel mccoron's victory. On Sunday, the twenty
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: four April, he won a second chance to show the
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: friends he can reform their country and repair the deep
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: fractures in society. Maccon beats the far right leader Marine
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: Lepan with more than fifty eight percent of the votes
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: in the runoff, becoming the first incumbent to be re
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: elected in France since Jack Chirac twenty years ago. Simanuel
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: la Semeniel received relief or not. Mc and his allies
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: will scarcely have time to celebrate. His nationalist, anti European
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: opponent won twelve million votes, the most that the National
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: Rally has ever achieved in a French national election, and
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: as Emmanuel mccon admitted in his acceptance speech, nearly half
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: of the seventeen million who voted for him were simply
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: voting to keep Loupen out opposed to consider it. We
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: have to consider all the difficulties of everyday lives and
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: respond effectively to the anger that has been expressed. Critics
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: across France have attacked him for overlooking the working class.
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: More than two thirds of home voted for the Pen.
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: Speaking at mccon's victory rally, Environment Minister Barbara Pompeley said
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: it's time to think about how to unite the French
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: population sation it don't. We must rebuild with everyone, without
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: living anyone on the sidelines. To build a society what
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: people live better, breath better. Still, we'll have a strong
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: far right and higher abstention. We need to take it
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: into account for international partners. Mcmon's re election will sound reassuring.
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: Two months after the start of the war in Ukraine,
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: while Lupin wanted to leave the military command of NATO
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: and we established ties with Russia's Vladimir put In, mc
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: complans to continue to be a reliable partner for both
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: NATO and Europe, and France still presides over the EU
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: until the end of June. But the lack of enthusiasm
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: from mccon despite his victory, could come back to haunt
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: him in the June parliamentary elections. If his party La
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: Republic Commage loses its majority, it will need to go
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: into coalition with other parties to stay in power or
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: be forced to leave with a hostile government, which might
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: paralyze his second term in office. He has publicist chairman
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: Maurice Levy. We have avoided the worst and now we
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: have to work for the best. The best to happen.
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: We need to give Macon a large majority at the Assembly.
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: Nationality at the lower middle classes feeling frustrated, believe that
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: they are not taking care of that they have, they
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: are left behind, and that the major issues are not addressed.
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: On the night of her defeat, my independ was also
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: sending our sights on the June vote. In defeat, I
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: cannot help but feel a kind of hope for our
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: French and European leaders. This result is evidence that cannot
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: be ignored of how the French people greatly distrust them
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: and a broad aspiration for change. France has rebounded faster
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: than other European economy is after the pandemic, but the
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: Boncard France estimates the growth potential is lower now than
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: under mccron's predecessor France Land. Emaniel mccorn has one another
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: chance to make it right, but he'll be held accountable
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: if an unti establishment candidate gets to power next time around.
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: In seven that's it for this episode of Stephonomics. We'll
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: be back next week, but in the meantime, do please
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: rate the show if you like it, and check out
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: the Bloomberg News website for more economic news. US and
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: views on the global economy also follow at economics on Twitter.
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: This episode was produced by Magnus Hendrickson with support from
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: Summer Saddi. Special thanks to Tim Adams and Caroline Cornell,
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: Eric Martin, Gihen Murray in Tunis, and Andrew Rossatti in Rio.
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: Mike Sasso is executive producer of Stephonomics and the head
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: of Bloomberg podcast is Francesca Levi.