Latest / Rittener Reflections / 22: 2025, the Year of the Unexpected
Transcript
- Jeff Rittener (00:00) Hello everyone and welcome to the final episode of Writner Reflections for 2025. When I launched this podcast back in January, I opened with five certainties I believed would shape cross-border trade in the year ahead. What I didn't anticipate, what none of us anticipated, was just how unpredictable 2025 would become. If episode one was about preparing for volatility, this episode is about living through it. So today I want to close the loop. I'll revisit those five certainties, reflect on what actually happened, and then share some personal reflections on why for me 2025 became the year of the unexpected. I want to take you back to January of 2025. This was a time of intense uncertainty. We all saw the nation elect president Trump in November of 2024 for his second term after following the Biden administration. And given the campaign and given all of the promises and the rhetoric and so on and the unpredictability, We all felt incredibly uncertain as to what lie ahead. With that in mind, I published my first episode of this podcast in January, and I said there were five things that you could count on when it came to cross-border trade. And while the themes held true, the way they unfolded surprised even me. You know, we all knew there would be a new president. There were going to be new players and, of course, new policies. And so the word action, word that I offered was that we needed to be alert. I said that traders would need to be on high alert. What I didn't expect was how often that alertness would need recalibration. You see, policy shifts came in waves. Regulations on, and sometimes in many of these were daily, there were executive orders that came fast. But there were also regulations that were slow in building up. And then there were some that were contradictory. know, sensing capabilities weren't just helpful, they became essential. Second, I said you could be certain of geopolitical tension and I offered an action word that was to anticipate. I predicted rising tension among the US, China, Russia, and the Middle East. And this certainly materialized, but what I didn't realize was that there would also be tension with many others. ⁓ Canada, in beginning, and then Mexico. In fact, there's been an incredible tension ⁓ between the US and Venezuela. We saw tension in Israel along with the struggles with Gaza. And then there was almost daily headlines about Russia and the Ukraine and potential peace deals. And of course, the ongoing battle with China. where things got incredibly intense and then they got better. So this pattern was anything but linear. so anticipation became less about predicting outcomes and more about preparing for multiple realities at once. Third, I said that there would be expanding sanctions. The word I offered here was to analyze, to understand your business as it related to the ever-changing area of sanctions. This landscape didn't just expand, but it fragmented. And we realized there were new regimes, new circumvention risks, and new enforcement priorities. We also saw that ⁓ Some countries expanded sanctions to focus more on individuals and companies that were placed on ⁓ banned lists. In China, there's an unreliable entity list. In the US, was often ⁓ companies placed on what's called the entity list. And for a while throughout most of the summer, we all prepared for and analyzed our business in preparation for a rule that would was called the BIS 50 % rule that would require traders to not only identify who was on a list, but to look at the ownership structure of that entity to determine whether you could go forward or not. That eventually was published and then soon thereafter was paused. But what we found was this analysis became a daily discipline, not a quarterly exercise. The fourth I offered was re-energized enforcement. And the key word here, the key action was to assess. And that meant to assess your compliance programs. You know, we saw enforcement actions increase and companies felt the pressure of complying with all of the different regulations, rules and policies. We saw a number of high profile companies ⁓ receive penalties through enforcement actions. And so the assessment of your compliance program was no longer a one time a year audit, but it became a continuous loop of checking and then adjusting and then strengthening your compliance program. No one wants to be the one to be made an example of. And so there was an intense assessment on our compliance programs. And finally, I offered that tariffs would be used as a weapon. And I implored you to adjust, to look at your business, to ⁓ manage this. Tariffs were used aggressively, sometimes strategically, sometimes reactively. We can all remember that day in April when President Trump stood there with his chart and he basically said that every country in the world was going to be subject to tariffs. This created an incredible panic among us all. In fact, we saw the market have the biggest drop in years over this. And then following this, we began to see ⁓ everything from reciprocal tariffs. trade agreements, countries having to line up to negotiate with the US administration. ⁓ And we saw the rise of tariffs and then the drop of tariffs. And tariffs became really the defining issue of our year. Adjustments became incredibly important. Companies needed to shift their supply chains, re-evaluate their sourcing. and absorb costs in ways that required creativity and resilience. And we all began to see in daily life how these tariffs resulted in increased prices. We all needed to adjust based on this. So in summary, ⁓ we all learned over the year that we needed to be alert for the unthinkable. We needed to anticipate chaos. We needed to analyze every change carefully. We needed to assess our compliance programs to ensure we had the right level of diligence. We had the right people, the right processes, and we had the right access to leadership. And we needed to adjust and readjust and then readjust again. Those five actions proved even more relevant than I expected. But the way they played out reminded me that certainty is always provisional. Jeff Rittener (09:47) You know, trade wasn't the only place where unpredictability showed up this year. In my own life, 2025 unfolded in ways I never could have scripted. I mean, first is the launching of this podcast. I didn't expect to start a podcast this year. I had no idea how to do a podcast. I had... thought it would be something fun to do, not realizing the work that it takes, but also the ⁓ way it became energizing and meaningful and gave me opportunity to connect with people and to distill thoughts and reflections into ⁓ actual episodes that hopefully were inspirational and informative and helpful. Your feedback. Your encouragement and your engagement, all of those kept this podcast going. You know, I'm amazed when I look back, I said at the beginning that I would commit as I did when I did reflections back at Intel, I said I would do an episode every other week. And as I look back at 2025 with this podcast, or this episode, it is number 27. So 27. If you divide that into the year means I did actually on average publish an episode every two weeks, which I'm very, very excited for. But I also have to acknowledge that I could never have done this without my son-in-law, whose name is Keith Belmar. Keith was the encourager, the one back in December and January said, Dad, you can do this. I can help you. Keith is a graphic artist by trade. He's an entrepreneurial. He has incredible IT and system skills. And so he became really the real reason why I was able to do this. He had to take every one of these episodes and ⁓ not only edit them, but then make sure they were on the website and published. You know, and in 27 episodes in a year, man, Keith was really busy. And having to deal with me and all my quirkiness and all my ideas and shifts and plans and ideas, I mean, actually recording on a trip for two and a half weeks, you know, gave Keith a lot of work. So I just want to shout out to my son-in-law, Keith Belmar. I, like I said, could never have done this without him. And I appreciate him so, so very much. Second unexpected thing was you know, the fact that I started a consulting business and have actually been advising others officially. This was a surprise. I didn't plan to build a consulting practice or even serve as an advisor, but opportunities surfaced and they did so organically. And I found myself doing work that was both intellectually stimulating, but also it was It was deeply rewarding. mean, the primary company that I was offered to advise was Intuitive Surgical. And I've spent the last six months working with them, looking at their trade program, looking at their organization, working with some incredible people in the medical field, which was completely unknown to me. And I have learned so much through that. or through that engagement and so thankful that I had the opportunity to work with this company. You know, the third unexpected occurrence was becoming host with my daughter. ⁓ This one still makes me smile. I never imagined that I'd be running an Airbnb and with my daughter. The whole way that this came about is pretty astounding. I wanted to have ⁓ something close to my daughter in North Carolina to give her an opportunity to participate. ⁓ And we found an Airbnb and it was sold to us as Turnkey. And within weeks, we had this up and running. And within months, we achieved ⁓ super host status and it was ⁓ just a time of really an adventure that we shared together. Learned so many things. I had to solve so many problems like the neighbor upstairs somehow water overflowed and came dripping down into our condo. while our guests arrive their very first Airbnb experience and we had to scramble around to deal with that. I will probably ⁓ save this topic for another episode because there's a lot of stories and I've learned so much through ⁓ this effort and I am looking forward to this coming year and learning more about the hospitality industry. know, fourth this year ⁓ just became a year of connection and ⁓ new friends, new contacts, a whole new network. You know, ⁓ I stepped into uncertainty, ⁓ but that led to open doors with people I would have never had met otherwise. I now have new colleagues, new collaborators, new friendships. People that I am, you know, engaging with on a regular basis and my world expanded in unexpected ways this year. For example, I met new people through three new running groups. ⁓ I've been very engaged with the Asia society and have had multiple interactions and connections with people. I'm highlighting a time I spent in Washington DC with a roundtable of some incredibly ⁓ connected and smart people around about the whole ⁓ world of Asia and business in Asia. I had an opportunity to meet incredible people at a company called Sayari, ⁓ allowed to ⁓ participate in their annual conference. And I had multiple opportunities to speak and to actually be included on other people's podcasts. So it has been a wonderful time ⁓ of engaging. with new folks. Number five, ⁓ time with my grandkids. For the first time in years, I made it physically present to every one of my grandchildren's birthdays. ⁓ know, those moments, they're simple, but they're joyful and they're very meaningful. ⁓ The one story I just love to tell is I have... three grandchildren in North Carolina and my youngest grandson, his name is Tucker and we, his birthday was in June and ⁓ I flew to North Carolina. The children had no idea I was coming. I showed up via Uber to the house. I knocked on the door and the children came to the door. They knew they weren't supposed to open it, but through the kind of window they could see and they said, I think that's Papa. and they opened the door and they saw it was me and they were so shocked they closed the door because they're not supposed to let people in. And so eventually they opened the door back up and it was wonderful to be able to greet my grandson and say happy birthday with such a surprise. You know, the next one is travel. I really ⁓ enjoyed going back to North Carolina multiple times because of family, but also because of the Airbnb. Washington DC always is a fun place. And then of course, as you all know through my latest episodes, know, my travel to Spain for the marathon and of course Portugal, you know, each place offered a different kind of reflection and just a reminder just how interconnected her world truly is. You know, I realized again how much I love to travel and I think the main reason is just because I love to meet people. And then there's the other unexpected surprise for me was the ability to return to running. ⁓ Most of you don't know, but I was off for six months in 2024 with an injury and I wasn't sure how I'd come back from that in 2025. I didn't know for sure I'd be able to run another marathon, but I did. And I also am proud that I logged more miles this year than I ever thought possible. In fact, I actually went past the thousand mile mark. for my runs in 2025. It was a personal victory that really kind of symbolized for me this concept of resilience and renewal. And I've also just really enjoyed being able to run with others through the running groups that I've met. Not everything was an uplifting, unexpected surprise. ⁓ There were some down moments. Probably the one that stands out the most is losing my mom. ⁓ This was the hardest moment of the year. And it was a sudden loss. She became sick and passed away very quickly. ⁓ It really kind of reshaped the year in ways I'm still processing. I have found that grief does have a way of slowing you down. Sharpening your perspective about things and gonna miss her And that was that was an unexpected part of this year as well. And then finally I'll just say the other one I'll just call home disasters ⁓ there were some very Practical and very inconvenient surprises for example coming home from a trip to find out that the hot water pipe and in between the walls between our utility room and master bathroom burst and hot water for a long time spread everywhere. And of course that was a huge disaster of trying to clean all that up and rebuild. And it just basically says that, you know, life's unpredictability shows up in all forms. So when I look back at 2025, I see that it really wasn't the year I planned. It was the year that unfolded. A year of unexpected challenges, but unexpected opportunities, and unexpected moments of gratitude. If this year taught me anything, it's that certainty is overrated. What matters is how we respond to what arrives. How we stay grounded, stay curious, and stay connected. I would like to thank you for joining me on this journey. Now, whether you've listened since episode one or you've just discovered this podcast, I am grateful for you, for your time, and for your trust. I am looking forward to continuing this conversation in 2026. And so until then, take care, and may your unexpected moments next year be the ones that bring growth, connection, and gratitude. Thank you very much.