Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - Warning: Inflation Data Just Out! + Stock Market News 20 December 2024

Transcript

Felix Prehn - Warning: Inflation Data Just Out! + Stock Market News 20 December 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix here and welcome to this pre-morning live.
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: What a drama it was yesterday, what a drama this morning is, and I tell you, literally everything just flipped 30 minutes ago Exactly.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: I want to explain to you why.
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: I won't let you hang in there.
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: It's good news.
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: We have some good news.
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: We have some cautious news.
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: We have some horrible news to learn from and we'll hopefully round up with a bit of positivity here today.
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: That's what we've got in stock here for the next few minutes.
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: Good morning everybody.
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: And while I run you through the numbers we just got inflation data out, which was literally the one thing that the whole thing here was hanging on Let me ask you a question how much money do you think you're losing or have lost because you don't have all the skills and all the tools and all the understanding of how the market works?
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: Do you think you're losing $10,000, $100,000, maybe even millions of dollars?
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: Put it in the chat.
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: I'd love to see where you think you are at in terms of losses and we'll circle back to that in a minute and by losses I also mean like just leaving opportunities on the table that you could have spotted, right.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: That's also a loss, right, because someone else took it.
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: Therefore you're poorer already.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: But let me start with the good news here.
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: I don't want to leave you hanging here in the misery of the doom and gloom from yesterday.
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: Things are improving, which is nice.
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: Core PCE, which is the favorite inflation metric of Jerome Powell, came in at 0.1%.
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: We were expecting 0.2%, so it is lower than expected and that is good news.
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: Yes, very good news.
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: We also have personal income a little lower than expected From a Fed point of view.
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: Slowing economy that is also good news, because why it's slowing economy means less inflation.
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: Spending came in a little bit softer as well 0.4.
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: We're expecting 0.5.
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: That's a little bit lower.
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: So that's the third smiley here.
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: And then on the month on month headline numbers again, you can see 0.1.
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: We're expecting 0.2 over all inflation coming in a little bit lower.
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: So we got smileys all around us everywhere I go.
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: And what does that mean?
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: Well, you mean Well, most people don't really understand what those numbers mean, right?
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: I mean, put your hand up if you don't know what those numbers mean.
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: I used to not know what those numbers meant.
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: I'm an economist and I was still like how does that affect the stock market?
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: What do you do Well.
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: Go to Trade Vision, open up QQQ because it's the most rate, sensitive, most news sensitive thing out there really and change the day chart up here from one day to one minute, and then all you got to look up is like, well, when did the data come out?
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: The data came out at I'll show you at 8.30 am, new York time, eastern time.
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: Data always comes out at Eastern time, and then you have a touch of patience and it'll show you exactly what's going on out there.
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: So where did the data come in?
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: Came in here at 8.30, there, right, and what did you see?
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: Sorry, can I move that to the left?
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: There it is.
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: So we started here at about $507 and we moved up immediately by three points.
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: That tells you the market thinks it was a good thing, and if the market thinks it's a wonderful thing, it'll go up a lot higher.
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: If the market thinks it's a terrible thing, it'll go a lot lower.
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: So that's basically your answer to is this good news?
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: Is it bad news?
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: It's good news.
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: So there is, however, more that again that most people don't really understand.
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: The red jacket is heartbreaking.
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: Isn't it Interesting how much money you're losing?
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: Some of you guys are losing $3,000, 40%, hundreds of thousands, 100 cases, george, in here, and 100k at least a million, says Alex Today, 15,000.
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: Interesting, okay.
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: So you feel that pain of not understanding, not knowing.
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: Okay, let me give you a little bit of data then, to make you better informed.
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: Today and going into next week, so we know what the heck's going on out there and I'm watching my portfolio here like a hawk.
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: It's still all red, but it's not as bad as it was just half an hour ago.
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: So things are improving slightly.
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: This is an interesting bit of statistic and generally people use the word interesting.
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: They use it to describe something terribly dull.
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: This is something terribly dull.
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: It's the job finding rate of unemployed workers.
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: It's very hard for unemployed workers to find jobs when there are no jobs.
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: So typically, what happens as you sort of head into recessions becomes hard to find jobs, hard to find jobs.
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: The great bit here in the background are recessions, and what happened just now?
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: It's absolutely getting decimated.
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: So what does that say to you?
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: There are less jobs available.
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: What does that say to you?
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: That a labor market recession is in the offing and therefore Jerome, the magnificent power, will likely cut more than he just told us, particularly, if you take that together with the inflation data we just got in, we've got two good reasons for him to flip on what he said only two days ago.
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: Now, to get back to all of you who are saying you're losing tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands, maybe even millions of dollars, what do you need to learn to do?
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: You need to learn two things, really.
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: You need to learn spot opportunities, because every single day they're opportunities.
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: There are always opportunities to make money and you want to identify the really good ones right, the really good ones.
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: And then you want to make sure that you take profits on nearish the top of your rally and you want to make sure that those profitable trades don't become avoid large losses.
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: Right, if you master that, those three simple things, you will do better than 99 of all investors out there, and those numbers you're putting out there the thousands, the tens of thousands, the millions that you think you're losing will disappear.
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: So how do you do that?
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: Well, you can get started by learning how to spot opportunities, by learning how to take profits and how to avoid large losses.
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: I promise you all of those three things.
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: If you watch the masterclass and I'd watch it right now.
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: I'd just leave the live stream, not worry about today or tomorrow, because none of that really matters.
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: What really matters is the medium term, where you're really going to make all that money for yourself and your family, and that's the thing.
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: In all honesty, you're not going to do that by watching this video.
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: This video is going to make you better informed for the next couple of days, but it's not going to change the way you invest your money.
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: The masterclass is going to do that for you and it's free.
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: It's half an hour.
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: You can take notes, you can re-watch it and then you'll be smarter.
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: And then you can come back live here on Monday and you'll be like Felix, I, I'm smarter.
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: Now, give me the news and give me the opportunities.
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: Trade mission only has four buys today.
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: That shows you how bearish we turned in a very, very short period of time.
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: Dana says I watched your masterclass last night.
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: It was really great, learned so much.
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: Thank you, I appreciate you, which is brilliant.
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: Did I lose money today?
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: Well, yeah, let me show you.
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: So I run this 30K portfolio.
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: Right, it's a teaching portfolio and I run this fairly tight to the wall, so we've got some margin calls here this morning.
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: We're actually not using any margin, but it's just that VIX trade here.
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: I need to close that VIX trade.
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: If I close that, then everything goes away, which is what I'm doing right here.
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: But If I close that, then everything goes away, which is what I'm doing right here.
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: But you know, overall are we doing all right?
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: Well, we're up 125% on the open trades.
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: We lost a little bit on the Tesla, on the PayPal, on the SoFi maybe 20% off or so.
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: On Bitcoin, we're down 8%, but we're up still, almost $40,000 on a 30K portfolio.
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: So we're doing reasonably well here.
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: So I'm not particularly concerned about any of that.
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: I also have a stock portfolio which is also up still very, very nicely.
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: So it's about risk management.
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: That's really what it's ultimately about.
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: If you change your mind about taking the masterclass down, I'm definitely going to change it up, that's for sure coming.
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: So the current form will probably disappear over the weekend.
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: So if you haven't already, go watch it right here, right now.
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: What happened to NVO?
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: We'll get to that as well in a second.
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: My friend, that's actually literally on my list here on my whiteboard blackboard.
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: But before I get into that, just quickly, this is a super, super important thing to understand.
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: But again, the only people I know who talk about this are professional traders who work for big banks, hedge fund outfits and so on.
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: And what happens?
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: There is a little thing called buybacks.
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: Basically companies, so stocks, so listed companies are the biggest buyers, the biggest, the biggest buyers of what Stocks.
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: Sounds weird, right?
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: Apple buys back like 90 billion a year of its own stock.
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: So they reduce the amount of shares out there by like 90 billion a year, massive amount.
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: And then everyone's doing that, paypal's doing that, all the big companies are doing that, but during earnings season they're not allowed to buy their own stock just before they report earnings.
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: So you have these blackout periods where they can't buy stocks.
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: So what does that mean?
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: It means the biggest buyer of stocks is removed from the market.
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: It's like sent to a desert island and you've taken away his phone, and that kicks in.
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: When here?
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: When is that?
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: What's the date?
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: Today?
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: Today's the 20th, kicks on today.
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: So today, that little lifeline of just the ever-permanent buying goes away, and that's going to get worse.
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: So today, about 40% of companies have to stop buying, and then that increases as we go into mid-January to all of it.
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: So this period is therefore potentially a lot more volatile, and this happens once a quarter, so it's a very, very predictable thing and I'll always tell you when it happens.
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: But if you know that that happens, you know okay, stuff's going to move a little bit more freely in this period.
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: Mr Tan, there, I appreciate you enjoying that masterclass as well.
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: That's absolutely brilliant.
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: That's precisely why I made it so.
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: Yes, it was incredibly insightful and elevating, inspired by your life story, and hope to be able to replicate a similar level of success.
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: You can, my friend.
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: Anybody can.
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: Anybody can.
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: It really is just a question of it's a knowledge gap and then it's an application gap, right?