Latest / Predictable with Stu Burguiere / What on EARTH Just Happened in Wisconsin with Francesca Hong?

Transcript

What on EARTH Just Happened in Wisconsin with Francesca Hong? · Predictable with Stu Burguiere

• 0:01
  Welcome to Predictable with Stu.
• 0:04
  How do I say this?
• 0:09
  This is gonna be a frustrating episode,
• 0:10
  but maybe great for you,
• 0:12
  and we'll get to that in a second cause we have
• 0:14
  to talk
• 0:14
  about Hong.
• 0:15
  Yes,
• 0:16
  Wisconsin's primary last night,
• 0:17
  if you missed the live stream,
• 0:18
  what a freaking rollercoaster.
• 0:20
  We have audience winners and losers.
• 0:22
  I will tell you every position
• 0:23
  that I had on last night's election,
• 0:25
  the good and the
• 0:26
  very,
• 0:27
  very bad.
• 0:28
  And
• 0:29
  we shall amend the Constitution
• 0:32
  of predictable.
• 0:33
  We do that
• 0:35
  next.
• 0:50
  Oh,
• 0:50
  what a night last night.
• 0:52
  It was incredible.
• 0:53
  Honestly,
• 0:53
  we did,
• 0:53
  I think,
• 0:54
  a 4-hour livestream.
• 0:55
  I didn't expect you to hang out for the entire thing,
• 0:57
  but if you were able to join us for some of it,
• 1:00
  uh,
• 1:00
  it was a really fun time as we watched,
• 1:03
  like a lot of it was interesting,
• 1:04
  but really the,
• 1:05
  the,
• 1:05
  the star of the show
• 1:07
  was Francesca Hong.
• 1:09
  Uh,
• 1:09
  she
• 1:10
  Had a very up and down evening
• 1:13
  and uh it was really amazing to watch in real time.
• 1:16
  If you like prediction markets,
• 1:18
  if you like understanding the elections,
• 1:20
  if you like cutting through all the nonsense of the mainstream media,
• 1:24
  go to predictableShow.com.
• 1:25
  There,
• 1:26
  you can sign up for free.
• 1:27
  Watch,
• 1:27
  uh,
• 1:28
  I mean,
• 1:28
  most of the stream was free,
• 1:29
  uh,
• 1:30
  last night,
• 1:30
  uh,
• 1:31
  but we did also give you a premium subscriber
• 1:33
  chat as well that went well into the evening.
• 1:36
  And it was just bonkers,
• 1:37
  frankly,
• 1:38
  the entire time.
• 1:39
  It was a lot of fun and we had all of my picks were up there in advance.
• 1:43
  Uh,
• 1:43
  if you're a premium subscriber,
• 1:45
  you get that,
• 1:46
  you get a great community of people talking about their positions and when,
• 1:49
  how they won and how they lost and honestly,
• 1:51
  there's so much
• 1:52
  information there,
• 1:52
  it's worth the resource just for that.
• 1:54
  So,
• 1:54
  join us PredictableShow.com.
• 1:55
  Now,
• 1:56
  one of the things,
• 1:57
  I don't know if this counts
• 1:58
  as a,
• 1:59
  as part of the benefits of being a subscriber.
• 2:02
  To predictableShow.com,
• 2:03
  but
• 2:04
  I asked,
• 2:04
  uh,
• 2:05
  this morning
• 2:06
  the question.
• 2:07
  What should the name of the Hong election slash trading roller coaster be?
• 2:12
  Threw a couple out there.
• 2:13
  Hong gone.
• 2:15
  Going,
• 2:15
  going hong.
• 2:17
  Wrong Hong
• 2:19
  The Thanksgiving turkey.
• 2:21
  Give me your ideas and your horrible puns.
• 2:23
  And you absolutely came through.
• 2:26
  Harris wrote,
• 2:26
  ding dong Hong is gong.
• 2:30
  This is gonna be,
• 2:30
  I'm not gonna be gonna get through this stupid segment.
• 2:32
  Discussions in darkness says
• 2:34
  high on the Hong.
• 2:35
  Brian A,
• 2:36
  the Hong ideas.
• 2:38
  Scott says going going Hong.
• 2:40
  John Kelly,
• 2:41
  uh,
• 2:41
  Hongon Fe.
• 2:44
  So stupid.
• 2:48
  Justin says
• 2:49
  the Wisconsin Thanksgiving turkey drop,
• 2:51
  a little,
• 2:52
  uh,
• 2:52
  WISC,
• 2:54
  uh,
• 2:54
  Thanksgiving
• 2:55
  turkey drop
• 2:56
  instead of the WKRP.
• 2:58
  Thanksgiving turkey drop,
• 2:59
  of course,
• 3:00
  Stephanie at the beach writes Hunger Games.
• 3:03
  Rob L hung so wrong.
• 3:05
  Uh,
• 3:06
  we've got,
• 3:06
  uh,
• 3:07
  the Crawley Crawl,
• 3:09
  uh,
• 3:09
  from
• 3:10
  Paul.
• 3:11
  Uh,
• 3:12
  Christian Hong,
• 3:13
  if you love Jesus,
• 3:15
  you know what that means.
• 3:16
  Uh,
• 3:17
  and this one,
• 3:18
  if she won,
• 3:19
  would have been good,
• 3:20
  but since she did not,
• 3:22
  I will say this one doesn't work.
• 3:24
  Me love you Hong time.
• 3:26
  That's all of those,
• 3:27
  all of those were,
• 3:28
  were not right.
• 3:30
  I hope you understand that they are very,
• 3:32
  very hung.
• 3:35
  83 days until the midterm elections and so many
• 3:38
  more puns in that time coming your way.
• 3:40
  I honestly,
• 3:41
  I don't really wanna do the show anymore.
• 3:44
  I don't really wanna trade prediction markets anymore.
• 3:46
  I don't wanna talk about politics anymore.
• 3:48
  Just wanna come up with funny names
• 3:50
  for elections.
• 3:51
  That's what I wanna do.
• 3:52
  Thanks so much for joining us on Predictable with Stu.
• 3:56
  The race ended
• 3:57
  thusly.
• 3:59
  David Crowley.
• 4:00
  I mean,
• 4:00
  in an absolutely unbelievable win,
• 4:04
  39.8% of the vote,
• 4:07
  uh,
• 4:07
  won by
• 4:08
  about 4000 votes,
• 4:10
  a little bit less than that.
• 4:12
  39.3% of the vote for Francesca Hung.
• 4:16
  I will say,
• 4:17
  one of the worst polling misses
• 4:20
  that I can remember.
• 4:21
  And here's,
• 4:22
  I was almost,
• 4:22
  I was thinking about this last night cause I,
• 4:24
  we,
• 4:25
  we were up till,
• 4:25
  I don't know,
• 4:26
  midnight,
• 4:26
  uh,
• 4:27
  central streaming,
• 4:28
  and then I went to bed,
• 4:29
  but I didn't,
• 4:30
  I couldn't fall asleep because I,
• 4:31
  I get too pumped up for this stuff.
• 4:33
  I love it.
• 4:34
  And I started thinking,
• 4:35
  and,
• 4:35
  and the production team's gonna hate this idea,
• 4:38
  but I was starting to think I might
• 4:39
  need to develop state-level constitutions on the show.
• 4:42
  Because
• 4:43
  what we should do,
• 4:44
  a state-level constitutional amendment for the state of
• 4:46
  Wisconsin is never believe polling in Wisconsin.
• 4:50
  That's a new,
• 4:50
  I,
• 4:51
  I don't know,
• 4:51
  maybe we'll roll those out eventually.
• 4:53
  But
• 4:54
  holy crap,
• 4:56
  guys.
• 4:56
  I mean,
• 4:56
  every single poll
• 4:58
  had hung up by 20 points or more.
• 5:02
  And if,
• 5:02
  and if it was one poll,
• 5:03
  you'd throw it out the window.
• 5:04
  So cause sometimes there's big misses.
• 5:06
  It was poll after poll after poll
• 5:09
  after poll,
• 5:09
  all showing the same thing.
• 5:11
  One of the most recent polls
• 5:12
  was,
• 5:13
  uh,
• 5:13
  was hung over a guy who had already dropped out by 25 points,
• 5:17
  and Crowley was in 3,
• 5:19
  like 35 points behind.
• 5:21
  I might remind you.
• 5:23
  That this man
• 5:25
  who won this race,
• 5:27
  David Crowley.
• 5:30
  This man dropped out of this race in July.
• 5:35
  He didn't drop out of the race last time,
• 5:37
  he dropped out of a race a few weeks ago.
• 5:40
  He dropped out of the race.
• 5:44
  And then they dropped out of the race to
• 5:46
  kind of codify the race around a moderate candidate,
• 5:49
  uh,
• 5:50
  you know,
• 5:50
  again,
• 5:50
  air quotes on the moderate.
• 5:52
  Uh,
• 5:52
  she came in,
• 5:53
  she had problems with her campaign,
• 5:55
  she dropped out.
• 5:56
  Then the governor came in and said,
• 5:58
  I endorse this guy who's dropped out.
• 6:00
  He gets back in
• 6:01
  and somehow wins.
• 6:03
  And when you look at the polling,
• 6:04
  honestly,
• 6:05
  they had hung around 40%.
• 6:07
  That part of it was probably true.
• 6:08
  The problem was every other voter
• 6:10
  and for all of the candidates that dropped out,
• 6:13
  pretty much
• 6:14
  went over
• 6:15
  to David Crowley.
• 6:16
  And it was an absolutely incredible night,
• 6:18
  a roller coaster night.
• 6:19
  Let me show you the graph from Cal Cal sheet.
• 6:20
  This is what it looked like.
• 6:22
  You see the ups and the downs and the ups and the downs
• 6:24
  and the ups and the downs and the ups and the downs.
• 6:26
  I mean,
• 6:26
  every single one of these
• 6:28
  was a wild roller coaster.
• 6:30
  You see it bouncing back wildly from 25 to 75 over
• 6:33
  and over and over and over and over and over again,
• 6:36
  which in what was once a stable race.
• 6:38
  Remember,
• 6:38
  Francesca Hong comes into this night
• 6:41
  at 95%
• 6:43
  to win,
• 6:44
  and she winds up losing.
• 6:45
  Now this has cut off before
• 6:47
  she actually
• 6:49
  winds up losing.
• 6:51
  But as I was going through this,
• 6:52
  I was thinking to myself.
• 6:54
  You can play some a market like this really,
• 6:56
  really stupidly.
• 6:57
  Or
• 6:59
  You could play it
• 7:00
  perfectly.
• 7:01
  So I give you.
• 7:03
  The perfect trade
• 7:12
  What if
• 7:13
  you called every single twist and turn.
• 7:17
  The perfect way
• 7:18
  You wound up
• 7:20
  with the perfect trade.
• 7:21
  Let me show you
• 7:22
  how it was done.
• 7:24
  You start
• 7:25
  with $100.
• 7:27
  You buy Crowley at 4% at the beginning of the evening,
• 7:31
  and you sell him at 73%,
• 7:33
  bringing your bankroll up to $1,825.
• 7:37
  That's step one.
• 7:38
  Step two,
• 7:39
  you take that $1,825.
• 7:41
  You buy Hong.
• 7:43
  At 27%,
• 7:44
  you sell Hong at 53%,
• 7:46
  your total bankroll up to $3,582.
• 7:50
  Step three,
• 7:51
  you take that $3,582 you buy Crowley
• 7:55
  at 47%,
• 7:56
  and then you sell Crowley at 61%,
• 7:59
  your bankroll up to $4650.
• 8:02
  Step 4.
• 8:04
  You take that $4650 you buy Hong at 39%,
• 8:08
  and you sell Hong
• 8:10
  at 55%,
• 8:11
  your total bankroll up to $6,557.
• 8:15
  Step five.
• 8:17
  You take that $6,557 you buy Crowley at 45%,
• 8:22
  you sell Crowley at 86%,
• 8:24
  your total bankroll up to $12,531.
• 8:28
  Step six.
• 8:30
  You take that $12,531 you buy Hong at 14%,
• 8:34
  you sell Hong at 72%,
• 8:37
  upping your bankroll to $64,446.
• 8:42
  Step 7.
• 8:43
  You take that $64,446 and you buy Crowley
• 8:46
  at 28%,
• 8:48
  and then you sell Crowley at 65%,
• 8:50
  your bankroll up to $149,607.
• 8:55
  Step 8.
• 8:57
  You take that $149,607 and you buy Hong
• 9:01
  at 35%,
• 9:02
  you sell Hong
• 9:03
  at 72%,
• 9:05
  your bankroll up to $307,762.
• 9:10
  Step 9.
• 9:12
  You take that $307,762 and you buy Crowley at 28%.
• 9:17
  And then you sell,
• 9:18
  I think Crowley,
• 9:18
  I have that labeled wrong,
• 9:20
  at 43%.
• 9:21
  Total bankroll,
• 9:22
  $472,635.
• 9:27
  Step 10,
• 9:28
  you take that $472,635 you buy Hong at $57
• 9:33
  you sell Hong
• 9:34
  at $75
• 9:36
  for a total bankroll of $621,888.
• 9:41
  Step 11.
• 9:42
  And then the final step,
• 9:44
  you take that $621,888 you buy Crowley at $25
• 9:50
  you sell
• 9:50
  Crowley,
• 9:51
  actually,
• 9:52
  not even at $750 you could ride that one all
• 9:53
  the way up to $1000 because he wound up winning.
• 9:56
  Your total bankroll,
• 9:58
  $2,487,551 and that,
• 10:06
  my friends,
• 10:07
  is how to spend an evening
• 10:09
  turning $100 into $2.5 million.
• 10:12
  In 11
• 10:14
  easy steps.
• 10:16
  What a night that was.
• 10:19
  It was a lot of fun.
• 10:22
  And there was a lot of lessons to be learned,
• 10:25
  lessons that
• 10:26
  your wonderful host of this program,
• 10:29
  maybe didn't learn
• 10:32
  until after.
• 10:34
  The Hong election was over.
• 10:38
  I will tell you about every single position I took on last night's election,
• 10:42
  and I will tell you they all live on this fancy card right here.
• 10:45
  Wrote them down myself.
• 10:48
  It was one of the most frustrating exercises
• 10:51
  I've ever been through in my entire life.
• 10:53
  I
• 10:55
  It was infuriating,
• 10:57
  and I'll tell you about it next.
• 11:17
  All right,
• 11:17
  audience,
• 11:18
  winners and losers who did well last night?
• 11:20
  Let's get right to it.
• 11:21
  Gammapa Knight says,
• 11:23
  Dagnabbit stew,
• 11:25
  you made me lose 7 cents.
• 11:26
  LOL.
• 11:27
  Otherwise,
• 11:27
  I did pretty good.
• 11:28
  I started out at $41
• 11:30
  and some change in my account.
• 11:31
  Now I'm over 52.
• 11:33
  Congratulations.
• 11:34
  Very,
• 11:34
  very good.
• 11:35
  Dark Horse 1791
• 11:36
  says,
• 11:37
  it's been amazing.
• 11:38
  Buy between 10 and 35,
• 11:40
  sell between 50 and 65,
• 11:42
  rinse and repeat.
• 11:43
  With the other candidate
• 11:45
  regardless of final fishing up,
• 11:46
  uh,
• 11:46
  finishing up at least
• 11:48
  150% tonight.
• 11:50
  Yes,
• 11:51
  congratulations.
• 11:53
  Couple of winners there.
• 11:54
  Now.
• 11:55
  Is this real?
• 11:56
  Is this really Scottylicious?
• 11:58
  Scottylicious,
• 11:59
  a premium subscriber.
• 12:00
  Welcome,
• 12:01
  Scottylicious.
• 12:01
  This is a guy who's made $2 million on prediction markets.
• 12:04
  When I tell you,
• 12:05
  the community is awesome
• 12:06
  as on the premium tier
• 12:08
  of predictableShow.com.
• 12:10
  I am not kidding you.
• 12:11
  This is one of the top prediction market traders in the world,
• 12:14
  and he's sitting in there chatting with you about prediction markets.
• 12:18
  This is so awesome.
• 12:19
  Scottylicious,
• 12:20
  uh,
• 12:20
  he's a legend.
• 12:21
  He's,
• 12:21
  we did a,
• 12:22
  a legend,
• 12:22
  uh,
• 12:23
  interview with,
• 12:23
  um,
• 12:24
  uh,
• 12:24
  predictable Legends interview with
• 12:26
  Scottylicious not that long ago.
• 12:27
  You can go watch that.
• 12:28
  And there's also a bonus Q&A if you're a premium subscriber.
• 12:31
  So happy to have him as part of the community.
• 12:33
  Wow,
• 12:33
  that's really,
• 12:34
  really cool.
• 12:35
  Although he didn't have a great night.
• 12:36
  He didn't have a great night.
• 12:37
  He says,
• 12:37
  I was bonding in the 90s,
• 12:39
  buying,
• 12:39
  that means like buying uh,
• 12:41
  what looks like a sure thing in the 90s,
• 12:42
  uh,
• 12:43
  re-upped Hong between 29 and 35.
• 12:45
  Originally it was gonna stay away,
• 12:47
  but thought about the progressive tradition in Wisconsin and those
• 12:49
  huge polls and got tempted and went way too heavy,
• 12:52
  said David Ben Soussan,
• 12:54
  uh,
• 12:54
  AKA Scottylicious.
• 12:55
  I will say,
• 12:56
  I had the same thoughts.
• 12:57
  Uh,
• 12:57
  I went down the exact same road.
• 12:59
  The progressive history had,
• 13:00
  you know,
• 13:00
  it really,
• 13:01
  I thought for sure.
• 13:03
  Uh,
• 13:03
  Hong was gonna win.
• 13:04
  Uh,
• 13:04
  and,
• 13:05
  uh,
• 13:05
  you know,
• 13:06
  again,
• 13:06
  the First Amendment of our Constitution,
• 13:08
  a sure thing,
• 13:09
  always has air quotes.
• 13:11
  Very,
• 13:11
  very true.
• 13:12
  Uh,
• 13:12
  Paul Friedman had,
• 13:13
  had a different,
• 13:14
  uh,
• 13:14
  opportunity,
• 13:15
  uh,
• 13:15
  last night.
• 13:15
  He says he cashed out on Crowley and Hong.
• 13:18
  He won on both.
• 13:19
  Great night,
• 13:19
  and he paid for the predictable show premium subscription for the rest of the year.
• 13:24
  Congratulations to Paul.
• 13:25
  That is awesome.
• 13:27
  Rob didn't do as well.
• 13:28
  He says he took a bath on Lindell and Norman.
• 13:31
  No,
• 13:31
  but I hope I got.
• 13:32
  Enough smalls out there to make up for it.
• 13:34
  Did well on Sanford.
• 13:35
  No,
• 13:35
  that was a,
• 13:36
  that's a,
• 13:36
  a good position actually recommended by
• 13:38
  someone in the predictable show.com community,
• 13:41
  uh,
• 13:41
  that was,
• 13:41
  uh,
• 13:42
  having,
• 13:42
  uh,
• 13:43
  Sanford
• 13:43
  to not advance,
• 13:44
  uh,
• 13:45
  that particular candidate.
• 13:47
  Uh,
• 13:47
  Stephanie writes,
• 13:47
  wiped out on Lindell,
• 13:49
  thought about getting out before it started,
• 13:51
  uh,
• 13:51
  and didn't,
• 13:53
  um,
• 13:54
  that,
• 13:54
  that might apply to,
• 13:55
  uh,
• 13:55
  we're about to amend the constitution,
• 13:57
  not predictable,
• 13:58
  OK?
• 13:59
  We're about to do that in just moments.
• 14:01
  Stay tuned for that,
• 14:02
  cause it might have something to do with that last comment.
• 14:03
  Catch 451 says,
• 14:05
  I bought Crowley Lowe
• 14:06
  and,
• 14:07
  uh,
• 14:07
  sold for a profit.
• 14:08
  I should have put a bigger position in.
• 14:10
  That's what,
• 14:10
  that's how I always feel.
• 14:11
  I was talking to someone last night who did big numbers on,
• 14:14
  uh,
• 14:14
  on the Hong back and forth,
• 14:15
  and I was like,
• 14:15
  oh,
• 14:16
  congratulations,
• 14:16
  you did well.
• 14:16
  He goes,
• 14:17
  yeah,
• 14:17
  but I,
• 14:18
  I bought it like 4 and I sold at 16.
• 14:21
  I only made 4 times my money,
• 14:22
  went all the way up to 70.
• 14:23
  It's like,
• 14:24
  yeah,
• 14:24
  you quadrupled your money though.
• 14:26
  I mean,
• 14:26
  like,
• 14:26
  that is part of the story there.
• 14:28
  Usually something you'd be happy about,
• 14:30
  but
• 14:30
  It's really hard at times,
• 14:31
  honestly,
• 14:32
  to celebrate those wins even when they come along.
• 14:35
  When you have them,
• 14:35
  celebrate them
• 14:36
  because they're not always there,
• 14:38
  as,
• 14:38
  uh,
• 14:38
  some people found out.
• 14:40
  I'm not gonna say names.
• 14:41
  Um,
• 14:41
  Idaho handyman writes,
• 14:42
  made almost 1,700% on Hang Crowley.
• 14:46
  Roller coaster and my anxiety was through the roof.
• 14:48
  I will say it was a little stressful.
• 14:50
  Stressful,
• 14:51
  but fun.
• 14:53
  Until
• 14:54
  today.
• 14:55
  When I went upstairs,
• 14:56
  and we in my office upstairs,
• 14:58
  and before we do these shows of like the review
• 15:00
  of what our positions were.
• 15:03
  I go upstairs and I write them all down on a fancy note card,
• 15:06
  OK?
• 15:06
  And I write it on every single one,
• 15:08
  and what I write is I write the name
• 15:10
  and what race it was,
• 15:11
  and then I,
• 15:12
  uh,
• 15:12
  write a check mark or an X,
• 15:14
  so I can remember whether I got it right or whether I got it wrong.
• 15:17
  So let me give you
• 15:19
  every single position
• 15:20
  I took in last night's election.
• 15:24
  Wisconsin 04,
• 15:26
  Democrat,
• 15:26
  Moore.
• 15:27
  We wanted yes and we got that correct.
• 15:30
  Minnesota uh rep uh Republican Senate nomination.
• 15:34
  This is one we talked about for a couple of months beforehand.
• 15:36
  Michelle Tafoya,
• 15:37
  we were high on her,
• 15:38
  made a very nice profit on Michelle Tafoya.
• 15:40
  Yes,
• 15:41
  that was correct.
• 15:42
  And we also had some no positions there.
• 15:44
  York,
• 15:44
  no,
• 15:45
  correct.
• 15:46
  Schwartz,
• 15:46
  no,
• 15:47
  correct,
• 15:47
  and White,
• 15:48
  no,
• 15:49
  correct.
• 15:49
  Connecticut 01,
• 15:50
  we had uh Bronin,
• 15:52
  yes,
• 15:52
  and we won that.
• 15:54
  Wisconsin 07,
• 15:55
  we had Eben.
• 15:56
  Now this was an interesting position because it was a latter position.
• 15:59
  You'll notice this,
• 15:59
  we do this from time to time.
• 16:01
  We'll buy something very,
• 16:01
  very cheap,
• 16:02
  and we will sell.
• 16:03
  Out of it almost immediately.
• 16:05
  On this particular case,
• 16:06
  I bought Eben at 1 cent
• 16:08
  and sold,
• 16:08
  uh,
• 16:08
  sold.
• 16:09
  I mean,
• 16:09
  I feel weird selling I sold her
• 16:11
  because then I feel like a
• 16:12
  trafficker.
• 16:13
  Uh,
• 16:13
  but no,
• 16:14
  I just,
• 16:14
  I sold her contracts,
• 16:15
  uh,
• 16:16
  at 2 and 3 and 4 or something like that.
• 16:18
  I was up a total of about 55 to 5,
• 16:22
  55 or 55% or 56%.
• 16:24
  I can't quite read my writing,
• 16:25
  but it was right around there.
• 16:26
  Uh,
• 16:26
  on a latter position as I got out of that,
• 16:28
  so it was profitable,
• 16:29
  though she did not win,
• 16:30
  but that was a profitable trade.
• 16:31
  Yes.
• 16:32
  Uh,
• 16:32
  uh,
• 16:32
  Ehrmanning,
• 16:33
  no,
• 16:34
  which was also correct.
• 16:35
  Wisconsin,
• 16:36
  03,
• 16:36
  Burge,
• 16:37
  Democrat,
• 16:38
  no,
• 16:39
  that was correct.
• 16:40
  Cook,
• 16:40
  yes,
• 16:41
  that was correct.
• 16:41
  Minnesota,
• 16:42
  08,
• 16:43
  Gulbranson,
• 16:44
  no.
• 16:44
  That was correct.
• 16:46
  Swanson,
• 16:46
  yes,
• 16:47
  that was correct.
• 16:49
  Minnesota Democrat governor,
• 16:50
  of course,
• 16:50
  Klobuchar,
• 16:51
  easy one.
• 16:52
  I can't give myself too much credit on that one,
• 16:53
  but we did have that and,
• 16:54
  uh,
• 16:54
  had a pretty big position in it.
• 16:55
  So,
• 16:56
  you know,
• 16:56
  a couple percent here help.
• 16:58
  Uh,
• 16:58
  we got a yes on that one as well.
• 17:00
  Uh,
• 17:01
  Vermont Republican Governor Scott,
• 17:04
  kind of the same story.
• 17:05
  Yes,
• 17:05
  that was correct.
• 17:07
  Can I remind you,
• 17:07
  by the way,
• 17:08
  if you're a premium tier subscriber,
• 17:09
  you get all these picks
• 17:10
  ahead of time.
• 17:11
  Got a database of over 200 of them that are listed on the website.
• 17:14
  And we give you a bunch in the chat.
• 17:16
  A bunch of these were in there.
• 17:17
  Vermont
• 17:19
  Democrat Governor Richards,
• 17:20
  no,
• 17:21
  correct.
• 17:21
  Jane,
• 17:22
  yes,
• 17:22
  did very well on that particular market.
• 17:25
  You might be saying right now,
• 17:26
  gosh,
• 17:26
  this doesn't seem that frustrating.
• 17:28
  Everything seems to be going swimmingly,
• 17:30
  doesn't it?
• 17:30
  It does seem that way,
• 17:31
  doesn't it?
• 17:32
  Minnesota 05,
• 17:33
  Omar,
• 17:33
  Elon Omar,
• 17:34
  again,
• 17:34
  another small profit,
• 17:35
  but we'll take it.
• 17:36
  Yes.
• 17:37
  Minnesota Democrat,
• 17:38
  uh,
• 17:38
  Senator Flanagan,
• 17:39
  yes.
• 17:40
  Correct.
• 17:42
  We did another latter philosophy with Minnesota Represent uh excuse me,
• 17:46
  Republican Governor Quals.
• 17:48
  Bought him at 0.3%,
• 17:51
  sold almost immediately half my shares at 0.6%,
• 17:55
  so that paid for the trade,
• 17:57
  and then laddered up a few more profits.
• 17:59
  We were up,
• 17:59
  I think,
• 17:59
  30 or 40% on that trade.
• 18:01
  We're happy with that,
• 18:02
  very,
• 18:03
  very happy.
• 18:04
  That was a yes.
• 18:06
  Uh,
• 18:06
  Mike Lindell,
• 18:08
  interesting story.
• 18:08
  Uh,
• 18:08
  Mike Lindell,
• 18:09
  uh,
• 18:09
  we were profitable on him as a no position.
• 18:12
  We took that at 70,
• 18:14
  uh,
• 18:14
  or,
• 18:14
  or took it at 30 and rode it up to 70 on the no.
• 18:17
  Uh,
• 18:17
  and then took a little slice of that profit
• 18:19
  and went back in on Lindell.
• 18:20
  Yes,
• 18:21
  I thought he was underpriced yesterday.
• 18:22
  He wound up losing,
• 18:23
  but overall,
• 18:24
  both trades
• 18:25
  on Lindell profitable,
• 18:26
  so that's a checkmark.
• 18:29
  Brad Smith in Wisconsin 06.
• 18:32
  Yes,
• 18:33
  we got that one right,
• 18:34
  very narrow election.
• 18:35
  Got that one right.
• 18:37
  Connecticut 05,
• 18:39
  Republican Shea,
• 18:40
  yes.
• 18:41
  Got that correct.
• 18:44
  South Carolina,
• 18:46
  Republican Senate,
• 18:47
  Yvette,
• 18:48
  no.
• 18:49
  Correct.
• 18:49
  Fry,
• 18:50
  no,
• 18:51
  correct.
• 18:52
  Gowdy,
• 18:53
  no.
• 18:54
  Correct.
• 18:57
  South Carolina advanced to the next round.
• 18:59
  Sanford,
• 19:00
  no.
• 19:01
  Did very,
• 19:02
  very well on that,
• 19:02
  thanks to whoever that subscriber was who recommended
• 19:05
  that particular market,
• 19:05
  did very well on that one,
• 19:07
  and that was also correct.
• 19:09
  Connecticut Governor,
• 19:11
  Democrat Lamont,
• 19:12
  an easy one,
• 19:12
  but yes,
• 19:14
  correct.
• 19:15
  We did miss
• 19:17
  on whether Norman would,
• 19:18
  would,
• 19:19
  uh,
• 19:19
  would,
• 19:19
  uh,
• 19:20
  advance.
• 19:20
  Took a small position later on in the election,
• 19:23
  so that one was wrong.
• 19:24
  And you might be saying,
• 19:25
  gosh,
• 19:25
  that,
• 19:26
  and the Norman thing aside,
• 19:27
  that was a pretty good night.
• 19:31
  Lots and lots of wins there,
• 19:33
  boys and girls.
• 19:34
  And that's true.
• 19:37
  But there's one race I didn't mention yet.
• 19:40
  One race on my sheet.
• 19:42
  It doesn't mention it.
• 19:43
  It's right up here,
• 19:43
  right at the top.
• 19:45
  Mhm.
• 19:47
  Wisconsin Democratic governor.
• 19:50
  Hong
• 19:53
  I said yes
• 19:57
  I don't know if you've heard the news,
• 19:59
  but she lost.
• 20:01
  Despite being up in the polls by 20 points.
• 20:05
  Despite being a progressive.
• 20:07
  In a series of races where we've seen progressives win and win and win and win and win,
• 20:13
  despite it occurring
• 20:14
  in the birthplace of American progressivism.
• 20:21
  She lost
• 20:23
  Now I had bought in at a very good price
• 20:26
  on our good friend,
• 20:29
  Francesca
• 20:30
  Hong.
• 20:31
  I thought it was an incredible price.
• 20:33
  I had bought in at an average of 77 cents.
• 20:37
  77%?
• 20:38
  Ride that up,
• 20:39
  23% profit on a 77% investment,
• 20:42
  you're talking what?
• 20:43
  30% profits on something that a lot of people,
• 20:47
  a lot of people were calling
• 20:49
  a sure thing.
• 20:50
  And if you remember me talking to you about this race,
• 20:53
  there were many,
• 20:54
  many times,
• 20:56
  cause you go into that race and you say,
• 20:57
  OK,
• 20:58
  this looks like she's gonna win,
• 20:59
  and she starts dropping,
• 21:01
  and you say,
• 21:01
  oh,
• 21:01
  maybe this is what's going on,
• 21:03
  you're not sure.
• 21:04
  And then it settles into a normal sort of race,
• 21:07
  where you're like,
• 21:08
  wait a minute,
• 21:08
  now I understand what this is.
• 21:10
  This is not the blowout that we expected.
• 21:12
  This is a very,
• 21:13
  very close race.
• 21:16
  This is a race that could go either way.
• 21:19
  The rest of the night has been going very well.
• 21:21
  Maybe I should consider
• 21:23
  when Francesca Hong gets up to 75 cents,
• 21:26
  let's say,
• 21:27
  just selling.
• 21:29
  All my shares for a little bit less of a profit.
• 21:34
  Perhaps you might think to yourself,
• 21:36
  what about the time that she got ahead in the actual vote count?
• 21:41
  Why not at that point,
• 21:42
  sell your shares?
• 21:43
  Maybe it's 65 or 70.
• 21:48
  But no,
• 21:49
  no,
• 21:49
  no,
• 21:49
  no,
• 21:50
  boys and girls.
• 21:52
  I went down with the ship.
• 21:54
  I took that 77 cents,
• 21:57
  and I took it down through 70 and 60,
• 21:59
  and 50,
• 21:59
  and 40 and 30,
• 22:00
  and then back up to 70,
• 22:02
  and then back down to 20,
• 22:03
  and then back up to 70.
• 22:05
  All over the place,
• 22:06
  and you know where it wound up?
• 22:08
  A big fat
• 22:10
  0.
• 22:11
  That's where it wound up,
• 22:13
  0%,
• 22:15
  because all that time I kept thinking she's gotta be able to pull this off.
• 22:18
  I talked about it on the stream.
• 22:21
  I was a little distracted by streaming,
• 22:22
  but that's no excuse whatsoever.
• 22:24
  I took that puppy all the way from 77 cents,
• 22:27
  and I,
• 22:28
  like a man,
• 22:30
  took it all the way to 0 and wiped out tons
• 22:33
  of the profit that I made in all these other markets.
• 22:35
  In fact,
• 22:36
  I wiped out most of the profit that I made in these other markets,
• 22:41
  including
• 22:42
  a long-time position that I had made a bunch on on Michelle Tafoya.
• 22:45
  I basically threw it to the wolves.
• 22:49
  The truth is
• 22:51
  I held my hong too long.
• 22:59
  I got
• 23:01
  I got stuck
• 23:03
  with my hong in my hand.
• 23:06
  And it's very,
• 23:07
  very disappointing.
• 23:11
  I experienced shrinkage
• 23:13
  in my hong position.
• 23:17
  And I mismeasured my hung.
• 23:23
  And that's why
• 23:25
  today we amend the constitution
• 23:27
  of
• 23:28
  predictable with stew.
• 23:38
  It is time to add
• 23:40
  the 17th Amendment to the Constitution,
• 23:43
  a lesson I had to learn
• 23:45
  with a big punch in the hong.
• 23:48
  The 17th Amendment to the Constitution
• 23:51
  shall forevermore be known.
• 23:54
  As this
• 23:56
  A smaller loss.
• 23:58
  Is a win.
• 24:01
  A smaller loss is a win.
• 24:04
  I could have come out of that freaking night
• 24:07
  with one of the best nights of the entire election.
• 24:10
  I could have come out of that night
• 24:11
  with one of the most profitable nights of the entire
• 24:15
  Run we've had so far here at Predictable.
• 24:18
  And instead,
• 24:19
  I came out with a middling
• 24:21
  mush.
• 24:23
  That's what I,
• 24:24
  that's what happened to me.
• 24:26
  Where's the thing?
• 24:27
  Let me,
• 24:27
  let me give me the card again.
• 24:29
  Last night
• 24:31
  In
• 24:31
  this election,
• 24:33
  I went 27 and 2.
• 24:37
  I went 27 and 2,
• 24:41
  and I'm complaining
• 24:43
  because I
• 24:44
  oversized my
• 24:47
  huh.
• 24:51
  Oversized,
• 24:51
  I went magnum.
• 24:53
  I didn't need magnum.
• 24:55
  I went magnum.
• 24:58
  With my hong
• 25:00
  And then I wrote it all the way down instead of selling at 75,
• 25:05
  or 70,
• 25:06
  or 65,
• 25:07
  or 60,
• 25:08
  or 50.
• 25:09
  I could have
• 25:11
  erased a giant loss from my ledger that wiped out tons of the profit
• 25:16
  that I made in other great picks from the rest of the night,
• 25:19
  but I didn't do that.
• 25:21
  So now I have to amend the constitution,
• 25:24
  and I have to make it
• 25:25
  an annoying odd number,
• 25:27
  but this is what happens
• 25:29
  unpredictable list too.
• 25:30
  When we learn lessons,
• 25:31
  we amend the constitution so we don't
• 25:33
  smash our face
• 25:35
  the next time this goes on.
• 25:37
  So I hope you enjoyed watching the stream last night and,
• 25:39
  and watching me kind of unknowingly.
• 25:41
  I didn't really realize it was happening at the time,
• 25:43
  but it,
• 25:43
  it happened.
• 25:45
  I lost my hong.
• 25:47
  I went 27 and 2,
• 25:48
  and the 17th Amendment to the Constitution is
• 25:50
  a smaller loss
• 25:53
  is a win.
• 25:56
  OK.
• 25:57
  That was quite an evening.
• 25:58
  We have more to come on the show.
• 26:00
  Join us,
• 26:01
  uh,
• 26:01
  uh,
• 26:01
  if nothing else,
• 26:03
  for the hong puns,
• 26:04
  but everything else that's offered on PredictableShow.com.
• 26:07
  Man,
• 26:07
  what a fun community this is.
• 26:08
  It's a great group of people who are really,
• 26:10
  really smart and probably could have told me that.
• 26:13
  Before
• 26:14
  I amended the constitution,
• 26:16
  they probably stayed out of the way of that mistake.
• 26:18
  I didn't,
• 26:19
  but I'm going to be honest with you,
• 26:21
  when I smashed my face into a wall.
• 26:23
  All right,
• 26:24
  predictableShow.com.
• 26:25
  Join us there,
• 26:25
  back in a second.
• 26:33
  Welcome back to Predictable
• 26:35
  with Stu.
• 26:36
  I wanna bring on Brenton Evans.
• 26:37
  He is the president of Predictable Media.
• 26:39
  What a title.
• 26:41
  What a title.
• 26:41
  And he joined me for the live stream last night,
• 26:44
  uh,
• 26:44
  watching the,
• 26:45
  uh,
• 26:45
  whole Hong mania
• 26:47
  go down.
• 26:47
  You actually did way better than I did in this particular,
• 26:50
  uh,
• 26:51
  election,
• 26:51
  Brent.
• 26:52
  I mean,
• 26:52
  it was,
• 26:53
  uh,
• 26:53
  it was,
• 26:53
  it was frankly annoying to hear your success.
• 26:57
  Yes,
• 26:57
  I mean,
• 26:58
  I was just honking around all night,
• 27:00
  just,
• 27:00
  just waiting for my profits.
• 27:02
  Uh,
• 27:03
  I will say that.
• 27:05
  Just like you had the
• 27:07
  magnificent rundown of things,
• 27:09
  I felt
• 27:11
  great about everything
• 27:13
  until
• 27:13
  Mike
• 27:15
  Little Hong Lindell,
• 27:17
  cause he's,
• 27:18
  he's a loser just like Hong was.
• 27:20
  He's the little Hong.
• 27:22
  He just killed all my profits,
• 27:23
  so I am,
• 27:25
  I'm,
• 27:25
  I'm forever going to
• 27:27
  resist the,
• 27:28
  uh,
• 27:28
  the urge to buy my slippers or my pillow
• 27:31
  because of what he did to me in the markets last night.
• 27:33
  But
• 27:34
  just,
• 27:34
  just so I can brag a little bit
• 27:36
  on,
• 27:36
  uh,
• 27:37
  on yesterday because
• 27:38
  I,
• 27:39
  I really,
• 27:39
  and I'll,
• 27:40
  and I'll share my numbers.
• 27:41
  I have no problem with sharing my numbers,
• 27:43
  uh.
• 27:44
  I felt really good about buying.
• 27:47
  Probly at 4 cents,
• 27:49
  1000 shares at 4 cents,
• 27:51
  so around $40.
• 27:54
  I sold it at 12 cents.
• 27:57
  So I should have been happy with that profit.
• 27:59
  I bought more at 15 cents.
• 28:02
  And then more at 18 cents,
• 28:04
  and then I sold all of those at 25 cents.
• 28:07
  It's incredible.
• 28:09
  Right,
• 28:09
  OK,
• 28:10
  hang on.
• 28:11
  Then I bought no
• 28:13
  at 47 cents and 33 cents thinking that he was not gonna win
• 28:17
  and sold those
• 28:18
  and so on Crowley I did fairly well.
• 28:21
  I did well as
• 28:23
  on the home side of things.
• 28:24
  I bought No early on at $3.84
• 28:28
  1000 shares,
• 28:29
  but I went the opposite direction.
• 28:31
  You wouldn't think I,
• 28:31
  you would,
• 28:32
  I would have
• 28:33
  on paper had the best night ever
• 28:35
  if I would have just known.
• 28:37
  But basically in reverse,
• 28:39
  I did the same thing.
• 28:40
  I sold
• 28:41
  the position at 10 cents.
• 28:44
  I sold half of it at 10 cents,
• 28:46
  half of it
• 28:46
  at 12 cents,
• 28:47
  and then I was out.
• 28:48
  Then I bought yes
• 28:50
  at 75 cents thinking she was going to win.
• 28:52
  And then I have 10 more transactions
• 28:54
  where I'm just hanging on to my Hong
• 28:57
  position
• 28:58
  for way too long
• 29:01
  and end up.
• 29:02
  You already listed about 10.
• 29:03
  How many trades did you do?
• 29:06
  Well,
• 29:06
  you were on the live stream with me,
• 29:07
  they were.
• 29:09
  Within,
• 29:11
  you know,
• 29:11
  0.2% points,
• 29:12
  most of the night,
• 29:13
  like it was
• 29:14
  a bizarre topsy-turvy,
• 29:16
  you know,
• 29:17
  what's gonna happen?
• 29:17
  What's coming out of
• 29:19
  Oshkosh,
• 29:19
  what's coming out of,
• 29:20
  you know,
• 29:21
  what other arena part of Wisconsin that's gonna be,
• 29:23
  you know,
• 29:23
  a,
• 29:23
  a surge for Hong or a surge for Crowley,
• 29:26
  but it was a Crowley rally,
• 29:28
  and I just,
• 29:29
  I,
• 29:30
  I ended up.
• 29:31
  21.1%
• 29:34
  ROI,
• 29:34
  so I feel
• 29:36
  like I made out a head,
• 29:37
  but it should have been.
• 29:39
  It should have been such a,
• 29:41
  I,
• 29:41
  I should be feasting tonight.
• 29:42
  I should be,
• 29:43
  you know,
• 29:43
  Dom Perion or something.
• 29:45
  You're just like the other guy I talked about earlier who
• 29:47
  you get upset
• 29:48
  when you make 3 and 4 times your money because
• 29:51
  you could have made 10 or 12 times your money.
• 29:53
  Uh,
• 29:53
  but overall,
• 29:54
  I will tell you,
• 29:55
  Brennan,
• 29:55
  this is someone I can speak to this with,
• 29:57
  uh,
• 29:57
  uh,
• 29:57
  some level
• 29:58
  of expertise.
• 29:59
  Uh,
• 30:00
  plus 21% is better than -100%.
• 30:04
  Um,
• 30:04
  that one I can assure you of
• 30:07
  that.
• 30:08
  So frustrating.
• 30:08
  I won't share with you my
• 30:10
  Mike Lindell numbers because those were terrible and those were,
• 30:12
  those were embarrassing.
• 30:13
  We don't need to know about that.
• 30:14
  We don't need to know about that.
• 30:15
  Um,
• 30:16
  I,
• 30:16
  I,
• 30:16
  you,
• 30:16
  of course,
• 30:17
  you've,
• 30:17
  that's the great thing about prediction markets.
• 30:19
  There's always another market.
• 30:19
  There's always another thing to move on to,
• 30:21
  always something else to do.
• 30:23
  You,
• 30:23
  uh,
• 30:23
  work,
• 30:24
  uh,
• 30:24
  really hard,
• 30:25
  you.
• 30:25
  And you've done very,
• 30:25
  very well,
• 30:27
  uh,
• 30:27
  in the world of golf.
• 30:28
  Uh,
• 30:28
  this is kind of like your,
• 30:30
  your thing.
• 30:31
  Like you love golf,
• 30:32
  you've built a,
• 30:33
  uh,
• 30:33
  predictable terminal
• 30:35
  that goes through and assesses each golfer's chance to do this,
• 30:38
  go through,
• 30:39
  look for different contracts that are available
• 30:41
  on all the different prediction markets.
• 30:43
  Um,
• 30:43
  uh,
• 30:43
  uh,
• 30:43
  you know,
• 30:44
  there's always a tournament,
• 30:45
  uh,
• 30:45
  you know,
• 30:46
  on Thursday and going into the weekend.
• 30:48
  What do you have coming up for this weekend?
• 30:50
  Yeah,
• 30:51
  and I,
• 30:51
  I know that you follow golf
• 30:52
  every day,
• 30:53
  so you're very well aware that right now we're in the playoffs of golf.
• 30:57
  Uh,
• 30:57
  the,
• 30:58
  the FedEx
• 30:59
  Cup is happening,
• 31:00
  like we're,
• 31:01
  we're into the playoffs.
• 31:02
  So
• 31:03
  it's,
• 31:03
  it's a different style of tournament this weekend.
• 31:05
  The top 70 players are,
• 31:07
  are now
• 31:09
  in the running for,
• 31:10
  for the,
• 31:11
  the,
• 31:11
  the final championship,
• 31:12
  but every tournament has its own champion.
• 31:15
  So we're going into the FedEx Cup,
• 31:16
  uh,
• 31:17
  Saint Jude championship this weekend.
• 31:18
  And it's gonna be a great field,
• 31:19
  but there's 70 people supposed to make it.
• 31:22
  Daniel Berger,
• 31:23
  uh,
• 31:23
  he,
• 31:24
  he didn't cut the mustard.
• 31:25
  He's,
• 31:25
  uh,
• 31:25
  he's out with an injury,
• 31:26
  uh,
• 31:26
  this weekend.
• 31:27
  So we got 69 players.
• 31:29
  What's typically a field of,
• 31:30
  of,
• 31:30
  say,
• 31:31
  150 is now,
• 31:32
  you know,
• 31:32
  just 69 players.
• 31:34
  So,
• 31:35
  the,
• 31:35
  the odds are completely different.
• 31:37
  And
• 31:39
  one of the things that I'm always looking at is,
• 31:41
  uh,
• 31:41
  hole in one,
• 31:42
  some of the,
• 31:42
  some of the more special.
• 31:44
  You know,
• 31:44
  features on Calhi,
• 31:45
  you can do,
• 31:46
  uh,
• 31:47
  different,
• 31:48
  um,
• 31:48
  you know,
• 31:48
  side,
• 31:49
  uh,
• 31:50
  positions,
• 31:51
  and a hole in one is always interesting to me because it's a math issue.
• 31:53
  Um,
• 31:54
  there's a certain amount of players,
• 31:55
  a certain amount of par threes,
• 31:57
  and if the conditions are right,
• 31:59
  the
• 32:00
  Courses,
• 32:01
  you know,
• 32:01
  a,
• 32:01
  a fairly easy course for these players.
• 32:04
  Your
• 32:04
  chances of a,
• 32:05
  a,
• 32:05
  a hole in one go way up.
• 32:06
  Well,
• 32:06
  this weekend,
• 32:07
  you only have a field of 69
• 32:10
  players,
• 32:11
  and I think there's around 1100 opportunities for
• 32:14
  a hole in one.
• 32:15
  Well,
• 32:15
  the,
• 32:15
  the math,
• 32:16
  the odds on a hole in one are like 1 in 3000.
• 32:19
  So,
• 32:20
  uh,
• 32:20
  you know,
• 32:21
  I'm going no on a hole in one this weekend because of that.
• 32:23
  I,
• 32:24
  I just,
• 32:24
  I don't feel like
• 32:25
  there will be a hole in one.
• 32:27
  That is around on Calhi,
• 32:29
  that's around 58 cents right now in the no position.
• 32:32
  And then to have two
• 32:33
  hole in ones would be even more
• 32:36
  of an anomaly,
• 32:37
  and that's at 90 cents.
• 32:38
  Now the liquidity may be,
• 32:40
  you know,
• 32:40
  an issue right now,
• 32:41
  but as you get into the weekend,
• 32:42
  just keep an eye on that.
• 32:44
  These guys are good.
• 32:45
  They could hit a hole in one,
• 32:46
  but the,
• 32:46
  but the thing that I'm looking at is,
• 32:48
  it's just a,
• 32:48
  it's a small field.
• 32:50
  The likelihood of that happening is not gonna be there.
• 32:52
  And then,
• 32:52
  you know,
• 32:53
  you have the best players in the world that are competing this weekend.
• 32:56
  And so,
• 32:57
  you're gonna have Scotty there,
• 32:58
  Rory,
• 32:59
  all the best,
• 33:00
  and you wanna make sure that you're not just,
• 33:02
  you know,
• 33:03
  throwing dollars at your favorite player
• 33:05
  at the wrong price,
• 33:06
  cause Scotty right now is the favorite.
• 33:08
  But I would actually
• 33:10
  make a case to take a no position on Scotty right now,
• 33:13
  and,
• 33:13
  um,
• 33:14
  and that's crazy,
• 33:14
  he's the #1 player in the world,
• 33:16
  but
• 33:16
  you've got such a strong field with no cut,
• 33:19
  essentially at the end of the tournament,
• 33:21
  the top 50 advance,
• 33:22
  so you're really looking at 4 days of play,
• 33:25
  and it's,
• 33:25
  it's anybody's
• 33:27
  tournament this weekend.
• 33:29
  That's,
• 33:29
  that's interesting,
• 33:29
  a couple of things on that.
• 33:30
  Um,
• 33:31
  one,
• 33:31
  the hole in one number is interesting,
• 33:33
  and I know you said there's not tons of liquidity there yet,
• 33:35
  but
• 33:36
  Like I feel like I've seen those numbers for full tournaments,
• 33:39
  right?
• 33:39
  Like where you have a full field,
• 33:41
  um,
• 33:42
  and the fact that they're around that level
• 33:44
  is interesting and maybe,
• 33:46
  maybe shows some value there.
• 33:47
  That,
• 33:47
  you know,
• 33:47
  as you point out,
• 33:48
  like,
• 33:49
  golfers are incredibly good at hitting it very close to the hole.
• 33:52
  The hole in one aspect of it,
• 33:53
  at some level is kind of just luck,
• 33:55
  you know,
• 33:55
  you're hitting it in that general area and it goes in.
• 33:58
  That happens with lesser golfers as well,
• 34:00
  you know,
• 34:00
  from time to time.
• 34:01
  So,
• 34:02
  Uh,
• 34:02
  that's an interesting one,
• 34:03
  and,
• 34:03
  and I know you've done well.
• 34:04
  I've actually done well on those hole in one markets as well.
• 34:06
  Like if there's something interesting and fun about it.
• 34:09
  Uh,
• 34:10
  again,
• 34:10
  you know,
• 34:11
  at least for me,
• 34:12
  this is not my expertise.
• 34:13
  I don't know golf at all as you make fun of me.
• 34:15
  Um,
• 34:16
  but it is,
• 34:16
  uh,
• 34:17
  it's a,
• 34:17
  it's just fun to kind of sprinkle a little bit around on,
• 34:19
  on,
• 34:20
  on some of these,
• 34:21
  uh,
• 34:21
  positions.
• 34:22
  And you said no on Scheff what is Scheffler trading at?
• 34:26
  Uh,
• 34:26
  he's around 12 to 15 cents right now,
• 34:29
  um,
• 34:29
  and so he's,
• 34:31
  I'm,
• 34:31
  I'm looking at the markets right now,
• 34:32
  he's
• 34:33
  Uh,
• 34:34
  right now,
• 34:34
  oh,
• 34:34
  he's at 16 cents right now.
• 34:36
  So he's,
• 34:36
  he's actually even gone up since I saw him earlier.
• 34:40
  Uh,
• 34:40
  McIlroy is at 55 cents.
• 34:43
  Uh,
• 34:44
  but I like Xander.
• 34:45
  I mean,
• 34:45
  if you're gonna take a flyer on somebody,
• 34:47
  Xander Schofly is at
• 34:48
  around $4.6.
• 34:49
  Um,
• 34:50
  that's not bad for who he is,
• 34:51
  but then
• 34:52
  you're gonna see a lot of movement over the weekend.
• 34:54
  I like to look at some of the people that have a chance to move up the leaderboard.
• 34:58
  And then you can sell the position as they as they go up,
• 35:01
  because like Justin Rose
• 35:03
  won the tournament last year and he's at 1%.
• 35:05
  So like he's,
• 35:06
  he's definitely the kind of player that could
• 35:08
  go up into the top 10
• 35:11
  I quickly ladder out of that,
• 35:13
  uh,
• 35:13
  at some point.
• 35:15
  Right,
• 35:15
  uh,
• 35:15
  Jordan Spieth is an interesting one.
• 35:17
  I mean,
• 35:17
  he's a name that everyone knows.
• 35:19
  Uh,
• 35:19
  he cannot close lately,
• 35:21
  he's just not.
• 35:23
  He's gotta make the,
• 35:24
  the,
• 35:25
  I think he's gotta make the top 23 players this week.
• 35:27
  I can't remember what it was.
• 35:28
  He has to,
• 35:28
  he has to be
• 35:29
  very,
• 35:29
  very good this weekend just to advance to the next weekend.
• 35:32
  And,
• 35:33
  um,
• 35:34
  I just,
• 35:35
  I don't know.
• 35:35
  I,
• 35:35
  I,
• 35:36
  I don't,
• 35:36
  if he,
• 35:37
  if he,
• 35:37
  if he moves up the leaderboard,
• 35:39
  he's doing OK.
• 35:40
  I would actually take a no position against him.
• 35:42
  I just don't think he'll end up winning,
• 35:44
  and
• 35:44
  I'm not so sure,
• 35:45
  but he'll end up even advancing till next weekend.
• 35:47
  No offense,
• 35:48
  Jordan,
• 35:48
  but we love you here in,
• 35:49
  in Texas.
• 35:50
  Uh,
• 35:50
  I,
• 35:51
  I will say,
• 35:51
  uh,
• 35:52
  you know,
• 35:52
  I don't know that much about golf,
• 35:54
  but I do know
• 35:55
  if I went no on Scotty Scheffler,
• 35:56
  I would spend my weekend in agony,
• 35:58
  uh,
• 35:59
  just in total fear
• 36:01
  that I would lose that one.
• 36:02
  So I don't know if I could go with you on that,
• 36:04
  uh,
• 36:04
  but,
• 36:04
  uh,
• 36:05
  interesting,
• 36:05
  uh,
• 36:05
  picks,
• 36:06
  and,
• 36:06
  and,
• 36:06
  and like they're just,
• 36:07
  it's fun to watch.
• 36:08
  There's,
• 36:08
  you know,
• 36:08
  the golf stuff is,
• 36:09
  is,
• 36:09
  is an interesting way to play the prediction markets.
• 36:11
  I mean,
• 36:11
  you,
• 36:12
  you point out Justin Rose at 1%.
• 36:14
  You know that we've done a lot of that in elections where you kind of take someone low,
• 36:18
  hope they get hot early,
• 36:19
  hope the vote comes out early for them,
• 36:21
  they move up to 2345,
• 36:23
  and you can easily get out of that position,
• 36:25
  and who knows,
• 36:25
  maybe they hold on,
• 36:27
  uh,
• 36:27
  and then you kind of have a free roll
• 36:29
  at a potential big win.
• 36:31
  Uh,
• 36:31
  so that is the,
• 36:33
  you say you're like,
• 36:33
  I'm,
• 36:33
  I'm like there's a tournament this weekend.
• 36:35
  Yeah,
• 36:35
  it's the big,
• 36:36
  it's the FedEx Cup.
• 36:37
  It's the biggest,
• 36:37
  uh,
• 36:38
  you know,
• 36:38
  the biggest end of the season situation.
• 36:40
  Uh,
• 36:40
  that's going on.
• 36:41
  Well,
• 36:41
  and just so you know,
• 36:42
  the,
• 36:42
  the end of the season is like they go from Memphis to Saint Louis to Atlanta.
• 36:46
  So it's like sweltering heat,
• 36:48
  you know,
• 36:49
  these guys are gonna be hot,
• 36:50
  and it's gonna be a,
• 36:51
  it's gonna be fun to watch them,
• 36:52
  and they're,
• 36:52
  they're,
• 36:53
  they're the best in the world,
• 36:54
  but,
• 36:54
  uh,
• 36:54
  it is for golfers,
• 36:55
  it's kind of like moving into a fun season of just seeing these guys,
• 36:59
  uh,
• 36:59
  compete for the trophy.
• 37:01
  Can,
• 37:01
  can you put these,
• 37:02
  uh,
• 37:02
  picks up at the chat at predictable.
• 37:03
  Show.com for people to check out.
• 37:05
  Yeah,
• 37:05
  I was gonna say,
• 37:06
  I'll put the,
• 37:06
  uh,
• 37:06
  this weekend I'll
• 37:07
  starting tomorrow,
• 37:08
  I'll put some of the thoughts that I have for like top 20 plays,
• 37:11
  um,
• 37:11
  some guys that I'm looking at,
• 37:13
  and,
• 37:13
  uh,
• 37:13
  if anybody has any questions in the chat,
• 37:14
  if you like golf,
• 37:15
  uh,
• 37:16
  feel free to,
• 37:16
  uh,
• 37:16
  ping me in the chat on predictableShow.com.
• 37:19
  Uh,
• 37:19
  and,
• 37:19
  uh,
• 37:20
  before you go,
• 37:20
  uh,
• 37:21
  the,
• 37:21
  the premium tier,
• 37:22
  uh,
• 37:22
  uh,
• 37:22
  we,
• 37:23
  we had a great chat last night.
• 37:24
  Uh,
• 37:24
  you joined us,
• 37:25
  Dan Andros joined us.
• 37:26
  We did,
• 37:27
  I think,
• 37:27
  44 hours.
• 37:28
  I mean,
• 37:29
  hopefully,
• 37:29
  that's,
• 37:29
  uh,
• 37:30
  enough value,
• 37:31
  uh,
• 37:31
  for your subscription.
• 37:32
  I think it is.
• 37:33
  Uh,
• 37:33
  we,
• 37:33
  we talked to,
• 37:34
  uh,
• 37:34
  we had people in the chat last night
• 37:35
  saying they pay for their entire year's subscription,
• 37:38
  uh,
• 37:38
  with just that one night of trading.
• 37:40
  Um,
• 37:41
  we got a lot of stuff coming up,
• 37:42
  uh,
• 37:42
  on this.
• 37:43
  I,
• 37:43
  we've already rolled out Stu's picks.
• 37:45
  What is it,
• 37:45
  2/200 picks.
• 37:47
  Uh,
• 37:47
  that I've made personally and are in my portfolio that you get to see.
• 37:51
  Can you give us an idea of a couple of other
• 37:53
  things that are on the site if people want to,
• 37:55
  uh,
• 37:55
  check it out?
• 37:57
  Yeah,
• 37:57
  we've got
• 37:58
  more features rolling out,
• 37:59
  but right now you have a lot to take advantage of.
• 38:02
  One of the things we like to talk about is the community,
• 38:04
  so like last night,
• 38:05
  it was fun just seeing everyone in the chat talking,
• 38:07
  interacting.
• 38:08
  We're starting to learn names.
• 38:09
  Uh,
• 38:09
  it is a tight knit group of folks that just love
• 38:12
  talking to Stu,
• 38:14
  but like,
• 38:14
  love talking about prediction markets.
• 38:16
  We're,
• 38:16
  we're learning together as well on some of the stuff.
• 38:19
  Uh,
• 38:19
  the prediction market world is kind of.
• 38:21
  You know,
• 38:21
  one of those things where,
• 38:22
  as you saw last night in the,
• 38:23
  in the Hong race,
• 38:24
  it's just,
• 38:25
  there's a lot of rodeoing going on.
• 38:27
  So it's fun to kind of
• 38:28
  talk about that stuff as it's happening.
• 38:29
  That's what's happening in the community,
• 38:31
  uh,
• 38:31
  but we're building that for the midterms,
• 38:32
  so
• 38:33
  we've got a lot of things that we're trying to build so that you guys have
• 38:36
  access to the latest and greatest data,
• 38:38
  um,
• 38:38
  but,
• 38:39
  but even beyond that,
• 38:40
  you know,
• 38:40
  the,
• 38:40
  the,
• 38:40
  the predictable
• 38:41
  world is,
• 38:42
  is built for prediction markets,
• 38:44
  so.
• 38:45
  Going into the presidential 2028 year,
• 38:48
  we wanna make sure that we're,
• 38:49
  we're,
• 38:50
  we're seizing every opportunity
• 38:51
  to understand and know what's gonna happen in those markets,
• 38:54
  but there's,
• 38:54
  you know,
• 38:55
  culture markets,
• 38:56
  there's obviously sports,
• 38:57
  there's financial markets that
• 38:58
  we can kind of talk about,
• 39:00
  uh,
• 39:00
  throughout the,
• 39:00
  the time to build,
• 39:02
  to really build your knowledge,
• 39:03
  but also build your.
• 39:04
  Profitability,
• 39:05
  even though we're not financial advisors,
• 39:06
  we do not say that we are investment advisors.
• 39:08
  We are playing in the space too and
• 39:09
  we're just sharing what we're learning through that.
• 39:12
  So you get insider
• 39:13
  access into the,
• 39:14
  the predictable community with,
• 39:16
  with us,
• 39:16
  they're live
• 39:17
  and then Sue's picks we're updating every week and we will give those
• 39:20
  to you.
• 39:21
  But then,
• 39:21
  you know,
• 39:22
  we wanna hear from our premium subscribers along the
• 39:24
  way because we're building this out for them.
• 39:27
  Some of the features will be custom for the,
• 39:29
  the needs out there
• 39:30
  and,
• 39:30
  uh,
• 39:30
  it's been a lot of fun so far.
• 39:32
  So we,
• 39:32
  we are definitely very hands-on.
• 39:34
  Uh,
• 39:34
  you'll get to,
• 39:35
  uh,
• 39:35
  interact with,
• 39:36
  with everyone in the,
• 39:37
  in the principal chat.
• 39:38
  I think right,
• 39:39
  even right now as we're going live,
• 39:40
  there's people talking,
• 39:41
  uh,
• 39:41
  in the chat,
• 39:42
  which is a lot of fun to see.
• 39:43
  So,
• 39:43
  it's a,
• 39:43
  it's a fun community.
• 39:44
  It's,
• 39:45
  it's prediction markets.
• 39:46
  If you're,
• 39:46
  if you're liking the opportunity to just to learn,
• 39:49
  uh,
• 39:49
  it's not overwhelming.
• 39:51
  It can be a first,
• 39:52
  but we're trying to make it as easy as possible for people to get into it.
• 39:55
  And uh to be able to sign up and uh
• 39:57
  and have fun.
• 39:58
  All right,
• 39:59
  well,
• 39:59
  yeah,
• 39:59
  join us at predictableshw.com.
• 40:00
  Lots of great benefits.
• 40:01
  I think you'll like it.
• 40:02
  Can we bring up Brent,
• 40:03
  uh,
• 40:03
  full screen here for one more second,
• 40:05
  uh,
• 40:05
  just out of a level of concern.
• 40:08
  Uh,
• 40:08
  is it possible the Grim Reaper is over your left shoulder?
• 40:14
  I hope not.
• 40:15
  It does not.
• 40:16
  Let me,
• 40:16
  let me slow turn to make sure.
• 40:19
  No,
• 40:19
  uh,
• 40:20
  that's actually a statue.
• 40:21
  I don't know,
• 40:21
  the blur feature.
• 40:22
  I can never tell if it's a help or not,
• 40:24
  you know,
• 40:24
  these,
• 40:25
  these things with,
• 40:25
  uh,
• 40:26
  with Zoom,
• 40:27
  uh,
• 40:27
  but yes,
• 40:28
  it looks like I'm
• 40:29
  trying not to get murdered,
• 40:30
  I think.
• 40:31
  I think there's a,
• 40:32
  uh,
• 40:32
  yeah,
• 40:33
  there's a movie where there's,
• 40:34
  there's like an
• 40:34
  afterlife,
• 40:35
  maybe it's Ghost with Patrick Swayze,
• 40:37
  the,
• 40:37
  the guy's just,
• 40:38
  you know,
• 40:38
  kind of creeping in.
• 40:39
  That's what I feel like.
• 40:39
  Thank you,
• 40:40
  Stu,
• 40:40
  for that haunting thought in my head.
• 40:42
  You're welcome.
• 40:43
  I'm just telling you to protect yourself.
• 40:44
  Uh,
• 40:44
  Brandon Evans,
• 40:45
  uh,
• 40:45
  he's a predictable
• 40:47
  media president and,
• 40:48
  uh,
• 40:48
  golf guru.
• 40:49
  Uh,
• 40:50
  Brent,
• 40:50
  thanks so much for hanging out,
• 40:51
  and,
• 40:51
  uh,
• 40:51
  we'll talk to you soon.
• 40:54
  All right,
• 40:54
  uh,
• 40:55
  thanks so much for joining us today on Predictable with Stu.
• 40:58
  We have more coming up tomorrow,
• 41:00
  uh,
• 41:00
  some,
• 41:01
  uh,
• 41:01
  is it true?
• 41:02
  Is this,
• 41:03
  is it confirmed?
• 41:04
  Do we have a Pat Gray sighting on this program?
• 41:07
  Is that true,
• 41:07
  Adam?
• 41:08
  It's confirmed.
• 41:09
  Pat Gray joins us for the first time
• 41:11
  on Predictable with Sue.
• 41:12
  He's got some interesting insight on a couple of different markets.
• 41:15
  We'll also talk to him,
• 41:16
  of course,
• 41:17
  about the election,
• 41:18
  uh,
• 41:18
  and all sorts of stuff.
• 41:19
  I wanna,
• 41:20
  I wanna know Pat's position on
• 41:22
  will Mitch McConnell resign because he's been covering
• 41:25
  this nonstop for something like 60 days.
• 41:28
  And I wanna know what he thinks on that one and,
• 41:30
  and a bunch of other stuff.
• 41:31
  So we'll have Pat Gray on
• 41:33
  tomorrow and so much more.
• 41:33
  Thanks so much for joining us.
• 41:35
  Join us at predictableShow.com and on YouTube.com/atpredictableShow.