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EP: 153 No Food No Water in 2027
Global food inflation could climb to around 5% in the first half of 2027, driven by compounding fertilizer shortages, extreme weather, and geopolitical disruptions.
Core Drivers
Fertilizer Shortages: Middle East conflicts have restricted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off a major conduit for the global trade of nitrogen, phosphorus, and sulfur fertilizers. Unlike oil, there are no strategic reserves for fertilizer.
El Niño and Climate Impacts: A strong El Niño pattern, alongside severe heatwaves and droughts ("climateflation"), is threatening staple crop yields in…
The skinny
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