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Ground Signal — October 1, 2026 · Ground Signal FM

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  Ground Signal, October 1st, 2026. Today, global
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  news, markets and crypto, tech and future, and
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  mobility. Let's get into it. Three pivots since
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  the last briefing. First, Rubio expelled Iran's
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  UNGA delegation from New York after indirect
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  ceasefire talks stalled. Foreign Minister Arakshi
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  and his team departed for Doha. Iran disputes
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  the expulsion framing, but the movement is real.
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  Talks are in the freezer. Second. The Strait
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  of Hormuz is now at day 214 of effective closure.
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  AI's visible commercial traffic is running at
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  roughly 5 % of normal, one confirmed transit
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  logged on September 27th. Brent crude is holding
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  near $98 a barrel. Third, the U .S. State Department
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  expanded social media vetting for visa applicants.
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  Effective today, October 1st, a visa holders
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  for foreign media workers plus TN and TD visa
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  categories under USMCA are now subject to mandatory
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  online presence review. The policy is live as
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  of this morning. Global news, three signals today.
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  Rubio expels the Iranian delegation, the RAF
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  Fairford terror plot, and the Hormuz mediation
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  deadlock. Signal one, Rubio expels Iran's UNGA
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  delegation. This is a signal four, diplomatic
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  breakdown at the negotiating table with direct
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  consequence for ceasefire timelines. Secretary
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  of State Marco Rubio ordered Iran's foreign minister,
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  Arachi, and his full UN General Assembly delegation
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  to leave New York ahead of schedule on October
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  1st. Axios and AP confirmed the order. The move
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  followed the collapse of indirect Qatar -brokered
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  ceasefire talks that had been expected to resume
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  around September 28th. Iran's delegation flew
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  to Doha. Tehran disputed the expulsion framing,
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  saying the departure followed a pre -scheduled
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  itinerary, but the timing, coinciding with stalled
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  mediation, signals a sharp diplomatic downgrade.
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  Watch Qatari back -channel activity in the next
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  48 hours. Signal 2, RAF Fairford terror plot.
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  This is a signal for a suspected state -linked
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  attack on a U .S. Air Force -operated base in
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  the United Kingdom. British authorities arrested
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  five men near RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire
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  on suspicion of preparing a terrorist act. U
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  .K. Prime Minister Andy Burnham confirmed there
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  are strong indications Iran played a part in
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  the incident. The base has been used by U .S.
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  Air Force assets during the ongoing Iran conflict.
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  Specifics of the alleged plot remain undisclosed.
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  No confirmation yet of how an Iranian connection
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  was established. But the combination, a U .S.-linked
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  target, a suspected state actor, and a U .K.
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  arrest, puts NATO security postures under fresh
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  pressure at a moment when Iran -West relations
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  are already at an operational low. Signal 3,
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  Hormuz mediation deadlock. This is a signal for
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  ongoing effective closure of a choke point carrying
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  20 % of global oil supply. This is day 214 of
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  the Hormuz closure. AIS tracking data puts commercial
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  transits at 5 % of baseline. One ship logged
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  the straight on September 27th. Brent crude is
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  at approximately $97 to $98 per barrel. Qatari
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  mediators are still active but described by multiple
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  outlets as stalled on major structural hurdles.
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  With Rubio's expulsion of Iran's delegation today,
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  any rapid diplomatic reset now runs through Doha,
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  not Washington. The forward watch, Qatari shuttle
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  activity in the next 48 to 72 hours will be the
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  clearest signal of whether talks can restart.
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  Markets and crypto, three signals today. Equities
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  and oil, Bitcoin and Ethereum, and the FOMC October
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  window. Signal one, equities and oil. This is
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  a signal three, markets navigating elevated energy
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  costs and geopolitical premium in crude. As of
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  October 1st, SPY, the S &P 500 proxy, is sitting
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  at $762 .63. QQQ, the NASDAQ 100 proxy, is at
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  $739 .77. Oil via USO is at $145 .66 on the ETF,
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  reflecting a Brent spot in the high 90s. Gold
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  via GLD is at $380 .84. Hormuz linked energy
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  risk premium is embedded in every one of those
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  numbers. A ceasefire signal would reprice oil
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  fast. Watch for any Qatari statement this week
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  as the catalyst. Signal 2, Bitcoin and Ethereum.
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  This is a signal to crypto holding in consolidation
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  territory ahead of macro catalyst. Bitcoin is
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  at approximately $83 ,900, down roughly half
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  a percent on the day. Ethereum is at $2 ,705.
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  Both assets are trading in ranges consistent
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  with risk on caution, not fear, not euphoria.
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  Crypto markets are watching the same macro levers
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  as equities, Fed trajectory and energy stability.
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  Neither is resolved. consolidation is the base
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  case until one breaks. Signal 3, FOMC October
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  window. This is a signal 3 the next rate decision
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  is 27 days out, and markets are still pricing
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  residual hike risk. The Federal Reserve's next
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  scheduled FOMC meeting is October 27th and 28th.
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  At the September 16th meeting, the Fed raised
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  its target range to 3 .75 to 4%. With inflation
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  data still elevated and energy costs sticky,
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  The October meeting carries live uncertainty.
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  No October CPI print between now and the meeting,
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  which means the Fed walks into October 27th with
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  September data already in hand. Watch for Fed
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  Speaker comments next week as the next real signal.
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  Tech and future, two signals today. The White
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  House AI Safety Accord and MetaConnect 2026.
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  Signal one, White House AI Self -Policing Accord.
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  This is a signal three. a voluntary but broadly
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  signed commitment reshaping the regulatory baseline
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  for frontier AI. On September 29th, the White
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  House announced a voluntary AI safety accord
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  signed by OpenAI, Google, Meta, NVIDIA, Anthropic,
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  and XAI. The framework is four -layered. Independent
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  audits, internal controls, board -level oversight,
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  and ongoing safety reviews. It is described by
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  signatories as morally binding, not legally enforceable.
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  The FTC is simultaneously running a separate
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  investigation into frontier AI companies over
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  potential consumer harms. Two parallel tracks,
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  voluntary commitments and federal scrutiny, means
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  the regulatory landscape is settling into shape.
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  Companies that signed are buying goodwill, companies
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  that did not are on a list. Signal 2, MetaConnect
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  2026. This is a Signal 2, a product cycle event
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  with structural implications for ambient computing
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  and always on AI. Meta unveiled Ray -Ban MetaGeneration
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  3 AI Glasses at Connect 2026. The new audio glasses
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  are the lightest and slimmest in the lineup,
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  music, calls, podcasts, and hands -free Meta
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  AI access. Meta also announced that by end of
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  2026, there will be over 100 styles in the AI
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  Glasses line. Hearing enhancement via MetaOne
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  subscription launches at $149 .99 in the U .S.
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  later this year. Meta is executing a platform
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  play, glasses as the ambient AI surface, with
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  AI subscription revenue layered underneath. At
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  100 plus styles, this stops being a gadget and
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  starts being a fashion category. Watch for third
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  -party designer partnerships as the next signal.
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  Mobility, one signal today. U .S. social media
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  vetting expansion, effective today. Signal one,
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  U .S. visa social media screening expands. This
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  is a signal four, a policy in effect as of today.
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  that directly affects journalists, USMCA workers,
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  and their families. The U .S. State Department
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  expanded mandatory online presence review to
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  three new visa categories, effective October
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  1st, iVisas, which cover foreign media and press
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  workers, TN visas, for Canadian and Mexican professionals
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  under USMCA, and TD visas, for TN dependents.
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  Applicants are instructed to set social media
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  accounts to public or open during the review
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  period. For nomads, remote workers crossing on
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  TN status, and international journalists covering
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  the U .S., this is now a live operational consideration.
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  If your social media history contains content
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  critical of U .S. policy, review it before your
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  next visa application. The policy applies to
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  new applications from today. Forward Signal,
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  three things to watch in the next 24 to 72 hours.
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  One, Qatari mediation activity on us Iran talks.
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  Watch for any shuttle diplomacy statement out
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  of Doha through Friday, October 3rd. This is
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  the clearest early indicator of whether the Rubio
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  expulsion hardens into a full diplomatic freeze.
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  Two, RAF Fairford investigation. British authorities
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  are expected to release further details on the
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  alleged plot within 48 hours. The Iran connection,
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  if confirmed formally, changes UK threat posture
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  calculations. Three, FOMC October window setup.
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  The first Fed speaker comments post -September
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  meeting are expected in coming days. Any hawkish
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  language ahead of October 27th will move rate
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  expectations and reprice equities and crypto
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  together. That's The Signal. Stay sharp, stay
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  mobile. This is Ground Signal.