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Prediction Markets vs Polls in Elections | Gainesville News
Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are outperforming polls early in election cycles—but as we get closer to voting day, polls catch up and become more reliable. Right now, Congressman Byron Donalds is a heavy favorite in GOP nomination betting, with odds over 90%—but that doesn’t mean he’ll win 90% of the vote, just that most bettors think he’ll win by at least one vote. These markets can be skewed, often dominated by young male bettors who are already well-informed, creating potential bias. Yet, bettors also factor in polls, blending data for their predictions. Markets can swing…
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