Latest / Predictable with Stu Burguiere / Oh Look, Another Race We Were TOTALLY Ahead of the Curve On!

Transcript

Oh Look, Another Race We Were TOTALLY Ahead of the Curve On! · Predictable with Stu Burguiere

• 0:00
  Welcome to Predictable with Stu.
• 0:02
  If you are new to prediction markets,
• 0:03
  go to predictable101.com,
• 0:05
  get your starting,
• 0:06
  kind of your crash course
• 0:07
  on how to get involved in prediction markets,
• 0:09
  short videos and a printed guide.
• 0:11
  You can check out there.
• 0:12
  Free resource
• 0:13
  for you,
• 0:14
  predictable101.com.
• 0:15
  We are 5 weeks away from the election.
• 0:17
  We'll get into where we stand on that.
• 0:19
  We have an update on the LA mayoral race.
• 0:21
  Remember that?
• 0:22
  One,
• 0:22
  we spent a lot of time on it back in the day.
• 0:24
  I want to spend a little more time on it
• 0:26
  and a new
• 0:27
  candidate countdown
• 0:29
  from the middle of the country.
• 0:30
  Today,
• 0:30
  we'll get into that and so much more.
• 0:32
  Make sure to join us at predictableshow.com.
• 0:34
  Every position that I have in prediction markets is up there.
• 0:37
  We have an update
• 0:38
  to our prediction model as well
• 0:40
  for the midterms,
• 0:41
  all that predictableshow.com.
• 0:58
  All right,
• 0:59
  here we go.
• 1:00
  Predictable with Stu.
• 1:01
  So much to get to today.
• 1:02
  I wanna get right to it.
• 1:03
  We have 5 weeks
• 1:04
  to the day.
• 1:06
  5 weeks from today is the election.
• 1:09
  It's getting closer and closer as we go.
• 1:11
  That might,
• 1:11
  and for,
• 1:12
  uh,
• 1:12
  you don't have to be a mathematician to watch the show.
• 1:14
  I use a lot of numbers.
• 1:15
  We,
• 1:15
  we do that all the time,
• 1:16
  but just so you know,
• 1:16
  5 weeks,
• 1:17
  35 days
• 1:19
  until the election.
• 1:21
  You can write that down and impress your friends with that sort
• 1:23
  of knowledge because that's what we give you here on the program.
• 1:25
  By the way,
• 1:25
  early voting has already begun in 5
• 1:28
  different states across the country,
• 1:31
  and,
• 1:31
  uh,
• 1:32
  we have,
• 1:33
  gosh,
• 1:33
  there's so many of them,
• 1:34
  uh,
• 1:34
  a bunch coming up here starting Sunday,
• 1:36
  more states come on board,
• 1:37
  Maine,
• 1:38
  then,
• 1:38
  uh,
• 1:39
  California,
• 1:39
  Montana,
• 1:40
  and Nebraska.
• 1:40
  California gives you
• 1:41
  14 months to vote.
• 1:43
  Uh,
• 1:44
  they,
• 1:44
  they give you about,
• 1:45
  uh,
• 1:45
  yeah,
• 1:45
  5 weeks beforehand.
• 1:47
  And then about,
• 1:48
  uh,
• 1:48
  you know,
• 1:49
  13 months
• 1:50
  after the election you can continue to vote
• 1:53
  in California.
• 1:53
  That's the law.
• 1:54
  Pretty sure you check that on your own,
• 1:56
  but I'm pretty sure Montana,
• 1:57
  Nebraska also October 5th,
• 1:59
  6th you got Indiana,
• 2:00
  New Mexico,
• 2:00
  Ohio,
• 2:01
  and Wyoming and October 7th and Arizona.
• 2:03
  So it's all coming online.
• 2:03
  This election
• 2:04
  has already started,
• 2:06
  and I don't know if you can feel it,
• 2:07
  but there's a lot of tension going on.
• 2:09
  Let's see the predictable midterm consensus.
• 2:11
  Where do we stand on that puppy today?
• 2:13
  Uh,
• 2:13
  we've got,
• 2:14
  uh,
• 2:14
  the model here,
• 2:15
  um,
• 2:15
  and this is it.
• 2:16
  Predictable midterm.
• 2:17
  By the way,
• 2:17
  it's a free resource for you to look at the
• 2:19
  House and Senate,
• 2:20
  uh,
• 2:20
  battle.
• 2:21
  Uh,
• 2:21
  let's see,
• 2:22
  is there any new,
• 2:23
  uh,
• 2:23
  stuff there we go.
• 2:23
  86.7% chance
• 2:25
  for the Democrats to win the House,
• 2:27
  a 13.3% chance,
• 2:29
  uh,
• 2:29
  for Republicans on the Senate,
• 2:31
  6138.
• 2:33
  I mean,
• 2:33
  you look at that,
• 2:34
  it's a little bit leaning towards the Democrats.
• 2:37
  I kind of still disagree with that,
• 2:39
  you know,
• 2:39
  I'm not selling my positions.
• 2:40
  I have a position on Republicans to win the Senate,
• 2:42
  which I'm down on.
• 2:44
  Uh,
• 2:44
  I have some Republican positions there,
• 2:46
  uh,
• 2:46
  but,
• 2:47
  you know,
• 2:47
  look,
• 2:48
  the mark the again,
• 2:49
  the predictable midterm consensus,
• 2:50
  the PMC
• 2:52
  is not the STU.
• 2:53
  Um,
• 2:53
  it's not my opinion,
• 2:54
  and none of my opinions are in there.
• 2:56
  You can see though,
• 2:56
  uh,
• 2:57
  below that where the markets disagree
• 2:59
  with the,
• 3:00
  uh,
• 3:01
  House and Senate.
• 3:01
  Uh,
• 3:01
  we have those little
• 3:02
  fancy green boxes to show you what the gap is.
• 3:04
  Not much of a gap in the Senate,
• 3:05
  honestly,
• 3:06
  pretty,
• 3:06
  pretty close to.
• 3:07
  Uh,
• 3:07
  the PMC,
• 3:08
  but you see a 54,
• 3:10
  uh,
• 3:10
  5 and 6 point gap basically
• 3:12
  between Calci and Polymarket,
• 3:14
  uh,
• 3:14
  when it comes
• 3:15
  to,
• 3:16
  uh,
• 3:16
  the situation over there.
• 3:18
  So
• 3:18
  that's what we can do.
• 3:19
  By the way,
• 3:19
  every single state,
• 3:20
  uh,
• 3:20
  for the Senate is available to you as a premium subscriber to see those gaps.
• 3:23
  There's gaps in the double digits,
• 3:24
  uh,
• 3:25
  between the,
• 3:26
  um,
• 3:26
  the consensus between experts and polling and everything else,
• 3:29
  uh,
• 3:29
  as it opposed to the markets and so.
• 3:32
  There could be opportunities for you there.
• 3:34
  And if you're a trader,
• 3:35
  if you want to be a premium subscriber,
• 3:36
  we would love to have you
• 3:37
  at predictableshow.com.
• 3:39
  It's a good subscription that I think really
• 3:41
  winds up paying for itself when it comes to
• 3:43
  the education and the knowledge and all the background,
• 3:45
  plus,
• 3:46
  you know,
• 3:47
  hopefully,
• 3:47
  you're just winning trades and,
• 3:48
  you know,
• 3:49
  that's always good.
• 3:50
  The predictable Senate board we have up there too,
• 3:52
  another free resource for you.
• 3:53
  We talked about this a little bit yesterday.
• 3:54
  Um,
• 3:55
  you know,
• 3:55
  you look at,
• 3:56
  uh,
• 3:57
  Nebraska,
• 3:57
  by the way,
• 3:57
  like if I was gonna change this right now,
• 3:58
  I don't know if you can change it if you go to your board there,
• 4:00
  Adam.
• 4:01
  Click on there.
• 4:02
  Um,
• 4:03
  and,
• 4:03
  uh,
• 4:04
  I,
• 4:04
  I,
• 4:04
  as you can see here,
• 4:05
  we kind of played with a little bit of this yesterday.
• 4:06
  I think Nebraska has to be moved over to the lean,
• 4:09
  uh,
• 4:10
  area.
• 4:11
  Maine,
• 4:11
  uh,
• 4:12
  you,
• 4:12
  uh,
• 4:12
  we have,
• 4:13
  uh,
• 4:13
  with Collins,
• 4:14
  I would put that probably back in the toss-up.
• 4:16
  Uh,
• 4:16
  you have Michigan,
• 4:17
  I probably put that in the toss-up as well.
• 4:19
  We're just dragging these things around for fun yesterday.
• 4:21
  Um,
• 4:22
  Kansas,
• 4:23
  Kansas,
• 4:23
  I,
• 4:24
  you know,
• 4:24
  you start to wonder if Kansas should be dragged,
• 4:26
  dragged over to that,
• 4:27
  uh,
• 4:27
  lean category too.
• 4:29
  The polling there is not good for the Republican,
• 4:31
  even though the fundamentals of that state
• 4:33
  are,
• 4:33
  are,
• 4:34
  are very much in,
• 4:35
  uh,
• 4:35
  in the Republicans' favor.
• 4:37
  I think it's the longest,
• 4:38
  if I'm not mistaken,
• 4:39
  the longest state in the union without a Democratic senator.
• 4:42
  So this would be,
• 4:43
  you wanna talk about a big update that's that Kansas one.
• 4:46
  Uh,
• 4:46
  Ohio,
• 4:46
  Nebraska,
• 4:47
  Alaska.
• 4:47
  I mean,
• 4:48
  you could move Alaska to the toss-up as well if you wanted to.
• 4:51
  Just kind of playing around with these as we go.
• 4:53
  This is something you can just do on your own,
• 4:54
  by the way,
• 4:55
  uh,
• 4:55
  for fun,
• 4:56
  uh,
• 4:57
  if this is your kind of fun.
• 5:00
  Which I gotta admit,
• 5:00
  it is mine.
• 5:01
  I,
• 5:02
  you know,
• 5:02
  I know it's pathetic,
• 5:03
  but
• 5:04
  do I go on my own Senate board on my own website and drag these around a lot?
• 5:07
  Yeah,
• 5:08
  yeah,
• 5:08
  you know what?
• 5:08
  Yeah,
• 5:09
  I do.
• 5:10
  Uh,
• 5:10
  by the way,
• 5:10
  they added that,
• 5:11
  uh,
• 5:11
  green
• 5:12
  box up there for share.
• 5:13
  You can,
• 5:13
  if you click on that,
• 5:14
  you can share your results and,
• 5:16
  uh,
• 5:16
  and show,
• 5:17
  you know,
• 5:17
  whatever.
• 5:17
  You can,
• 5:18
  uh,
• 5:19
  see everything and close and copy that and,
• 5:21
  and,
• 5:21
  uh,
• 5:21
  put that on social media or share it to
• 5:23
  your friends and say I'm right and you're wrong.
• 5:26
  Uh,
• 5:26
  whatever you wanna do.
• 5:27
  But that's what we do here.
• 5:28
  We,
• 5:28
  we have a lot of fun with these things.
• 5:30
  Uh,
• 5:30
  you know,
• 5:30
  am I panicking?
• 5:31
  No,
• 5:31
  we don't panic until October 19th.
• 5:33
  October 19th is panic day.
• 5:35
  We've told you that before,
• 5:36
  so that's always available for you.
• 5:38
  You don't panic until October 19th,
• 5:40
  then you panic.
• 5:41
  OK.
• 5:42
  Um,
• 5:42
  I wanna go and,
• 5:43
  and,
• 5:44
  uh,
• 5:44
  look at a race we've not talked about in a while.
• 5:47
  We kinda have a big history with this particular race on this program.
• 5:50
  And I wanna walk you back through the history here
• 5:53
  so you can remember where we were,
• 5:55
  how all this turned,
• 5:56
  uh,
• 5:57
  into what,
• 5:57
  where we are today.
• 5:59
  And I have an update on this race that I'm pretty interested in.
• 6:01
  Let's,
• 6:02
  uh,
• 6:02
  flashback if we should.
• 6:10
  I would say um Nita Raman probably had the worst night.
• 6:13
  She got got flustered by some of the questions and
• 6:16
  and some of the structuring of yes no questions,
• 6:18
  so not not a great night for her.
• 6:22
  No matter what happens in this election,
• 6:24
  I'll never stop fighting for it,
• 6:26
  and I know that every single one of you won't either.
• 6:29
  How incredibly lucky we are.
• 6:38
  But I do think there's some value in Rahman
• 6:41
  at 9%.
• 6:42
  You have a lot of people who will come into that polling
• 6:44
  booth who would never even consider a Republican like Spencer Pratt.
• 6:47
  That's why I like taking those long shots.
• 6:48
  You take those flyers when you're talking about 578 times your money,
• 6:52
  maybe you hit them every once in a while,
• 6:53
  as we did with Ken Paxton and maybe we do with Rahman tonight.
• 6:56
  I'm telling you this now in advance,
• 6:58
  you're going to see these vote totals tightening,
• 7:00
  particularly in Los Angeles.
• 7:01
  Nitia Rahman,
• 7:03
  the 3rd place candidate,
• 7:04
  is going
• 7:05
  to tighten up that race with Spencer Pratt.
• 7:15
  We're gonna have a terrible governor too.
• 7:16
  Bad for the country and it's certainly bad for the people
• 7:19
  of California.
• 7:20
  I don't like,
• 7:20
  I'm not happy with any of that.
• 7:21
  But if I'm gonna have pain,
• 7:22
  I wanna be paid for my pain.
• 7:24
  I want to be
• 7:25
  reimbursed for all the torture I'm gonna be put through.
• 7:35
  All right,
• 7:35
  well,
• 7:35
  there you go.
• 7:36
  The look back at the Ramon Pratt Bass saga,
• 7:41
  and we covered this a lot actually,
• 7:43
  uh,
• 7:43
  going through this,
• 7:44
  you know,
• 7:44
  again,
• 7:44
  I was saying,
• 7:45
  hey,
• 7:45
  buy it 9%
• 7:47
  on Nithia Rahman.
• 7:49
  We also talked to Scottylicious.
• 7:50
  He's one of the biggest,
• 7:51
  uh,
• 7:51
  traders in the world on prediction markets,
• 7:53
  made multiple millions of dollars,
• 7:55
  uh,
• 7:56
  on them,
• 7:56
  and we,
• 7:57
  we asked him for one race he was watching closely.
• 8:00
  Let me,
• 8:00
  uh,
• 8:01
  show you that.
• 8:01
  This is from,
• 8:02
  I don't know,
• 8:02
  a month or two ago.
• 8:03
  Nitia Rahman is,
• 8:05
  uh,
• 8:05
  uh,
• 8:05
  you know,
• 8:05
  still in the race.
• 8:06
  You still have a position with her,
• 8:08
  uh,
• 8:08
  you know,
• 8:09
  in some ways because of what we've seen with the,
• 8:11
  the,
• 8:11
  the Democratic Socialists and,
• 8:13
  and the way that they have been victorious in
• 8:15
  a lot of these local races across the country,
• 8:18
  I'm a bit surprised that she's still hanging around 37,
• 8:21
  38%.
• 8:22
  Uh,
• 8:23
  are you still active in that market and,
• 8:25
  and do you,
• 8:25
  are you,
• 8:25
  do you see an upside there,
• 8:27
  or do you,
• 8:27
  or what's your feeling on it?
• 8:30
  I don't know if she can win.
• 8:32
  Uh,
• 8:33
  Bass is a force to be reckoned with,
• 8:35
  with,
• 8:35
  uh,
• 8:35
  the unions and,
• 8:37
  uh,
• 8:37
  city employee union in,
• 8:38
  in LA,
• 8:40
  and,
• 8:40
  uh,
• 8:42
  Nitia Raman seems to lack a little bit of
• 8:46
  charisma.
• 8:48
  So it's probably not something I'm gonna put hundreds of thousands of dollars on.
• 8:52
  I think the,
• 8:53
  uh,
• 8:53
  I think she should probably be in the 40s,
• 8:55
  at least the low 40s,
• 8:56
  so it does seem,
• 8:57
  she does seem
• 8:58
  Uh,
• 8:58
  inexpensive given the DSA,
• 9:01
  uh,
• 9:01
  takeover of a lot of,
• 9:03
  a lot of blue cities,
• 9:04
  but
• 9:05
  Uh,
• 9:06
  it's,
• 9:07
  it's worth noting
• 9:08
  that Karen Bass is also a democratic socialist,
• 9:12
  so it's not like you have a centrist republic centrist.
• 9:15
  Pardon me,
• 9:15
  centrist Democrat with Karen Bass
• 9:18
  and this extreme,
• 9:19
  you know,
• 9:19
  person.
• 9:21
  Who's going against her.
• 9:22
  They're both very left wing.
• 9:25
  Surprisingly,
• 9:26
  Nitia Raman had some really good proposals for small business
• 9:29
  to cut out a lot of bureaucracy in Los Angeles,
• 9:32
  and Karen Bass is known as a as a as a bureaucrat.
• 9:36
  So
• 9:37
  there,
• 9:37
  there are
• 9:39
  variables that
• 9:40
  aren't necessarily ideologue.
• 9:42
  Ideologically driven in this race
• 9:44
  that may come to affect things,
• 9:46
  uh,
• 9:47
  I'm gonna keep an open mind on this one and I may,
• 9:49
  I may add or decrease the position depending on how
• 9:52
  things go in the next few weeks and few months,
• 9:54
  and I,
• 9:55
  I'm,
• 9:55
  but I'm definitely not aping into it right now.
• 9:57
  It's,
• 9:58
  it's gonna be a close call,
• 9:59
  I think.
• 10:01
  We,
• 10:01
  you know,
• 10:01
  try to talk to,
• 10:02
  uh,
• 10:03
  big traders like Scottylicious as much as we can,
• 10:05
  uh,
• 10:05
  both,
• 10:06
  uh,
• 10:06
  in front of the camera and behind the scenes.
• 10:08
  Uh,
• 10:08
  we have a lot of conversations about these trades.
• 10:11
  Um,
• 10:12
  and,
• 10:12
  you know,
• 10:12
  we should,
• 10:13
  let's sketch,
• 10:13
  let's see if we can sketch,
• 10:14
  uh,
• 10:15
  Adam,
• 10:15
  ask,
• 10:15
  uh,
• 10:16
  Scottylicious if he'll come back on again and like talk to us about Ramon.
• 10:19
  I think he also took a position
• 10:20
  in Alaska that we should talk to him about.
• 10:22
  We,
• 10:22
  we need to get him back on.
• 10:23
  We need to talk to Scotty again,
• 10:24
  uh,
• 10:24
  Scottylicious again.
• 10:26
  Um,
• 10:26
  it's not even,
• 10:27
  it's not his name,
• 10:27
  but
• 10:28
  I now shortened it to Scotty.
• 10:29
  Sorry,
• 10:29
  Scotty.
• 10:30
  Um,
• 10:30
  anyway,
• 10:31
  uh,
• 10:32
  uh,
• 10:32
  uh,
• 10:32
  we,
• 10:33
  we want to,
• 10:34
  so stupid.
• 10:35
  Uh,
• 10:36
  the internet has brought us this thing where
• 10:37
  we just name each other weird things and,
• 10:39
  and this is just,
• 10:40
  this is just reality and we have to get,
• 10:41
  we have to get used to it.
• 10:42
  Um.
• 10:44
  Ramon is interesting,
• 10:45
  and I,
• 10:45
  and I,
• 10:47
  the way I played this market.
• 10:49
  Back in the day,
• 10:50
  I went very,
• 10:51
  I had a Ramon position,
• 10:52
  as I was saying,
• 10:53
  uh,
• 10:53
  uh,
• 10:54
  you know,
• 10:54
  8 and 9 cents.
• 10:55
  I took a profit on that.
• 10:56
  Uh,
• 10:56
  I,
• 10:57
  I wound up putting most of my money in no on Spencer
• 10:59
  Pratt rather than going long term and really thinking about this race.
• 11:02
  But as I've had time to think about it.
• 11:06
  It's really an interesting one,
• 11:07
  because the the concept of Spencer Pratt even being mildly competitive
• 11:13
  in a place like Los Angeles,
• 11:14
  which he was,
• 11:15
  at least for 2nd place,
• 11:16
  I mean it was a it was a close race for 2nd.
• 11:19
  Was that the idea that Bass was so uniquely terrible,
• 11:22
  right?
• 11:23
  She was,
• 11:24
  I mean,
• 11:24
  the,
• 11:25
  the city burned to the ground under her watch while she was overseas,
• 11:28
  right?
• 11:28
  Like this is the type of thing that,
• 11:31
  that,
• 11:31
  that crushes ideology,
• 11:32
  and it was one of the reasons why people were optimistic for uh uh for Spencer Pratt.
• 11:36
  I,
• 11:37
  I never believed he'd get,
• 11:38
  he'd win that race.
• 11:41
  But I did have a moment of,
• 11:42
  hey,
• 11:42
  I think there's a real reason he might even get through,
• 11:45
  uh,
• 11:45
  this,
• 11:45
  uh,
• 11:46
  this first round of voting,
• 11:47
  and he might be competitive because,
• 11:49
  you know,
• 11:49
  he ran a good race,
• 11:50
  he had some good catchy ads,
• 11:51
  he had some buzz,
• 11:53
  but also like,
• 11:54
  it's it it,
• 11:55
  none of that makes a difference in a place like Los Angeles for a Republican,
• 11:59
  unless
• 12:00
  the Democrat is uniquely terrible.
• 12:02
  And because we had a situation with Ramon who had a terrible debate,
• 12:04
  we kind of noticed,
• 12:05
  noted that in that,
• 12:06
  uh,
• 12:06
  initial video,
• 12:08
  you kind of wondered,
• 12:09
  well,
• 12:09
  you know,
• 12:10
  could Pratt be competitive.
• 12:11
  I took a no position on him winning.
• 12:13
  We wound up getting paid on that,
• 12:15
  and that's kind of where I left that race.
• 12:16
  I didn't think that much of it.
• 12:17
  And,
• 12:18
  and,
• 12:18
  uh,
• 12:18
  and,
• 12:19
  and
• 12:19
  David,
• 12:20
  uh,
• 12:20
  Scotty,
• 12:20
  uh,
• 12:21
  Licious also mentioned this.
• 12:23
  Um,
• 12:24
  where he was saying,
• 12:24
  hey,
• 12:24
  I'm,
• 12:25
  I'm in this,
• 12:26
  uh,
• 12:27
  thing.
• 12:27
  I'm not going crazy on it,
• 12:28
  but I'm watching it closely.
• 12:30
  And I had that same feeling.
• 12:31
  I kind of thought,
• 12:32
  you know,
• 12:32
  gosh,
• 12:32
  it seems a little low for her to be 38,
• 12:34
  39%,
• 12:35
  but
• 12:35
  there are so many other things going on,
• 12:36
  I didn't watch that closely.
• 12:38
  Well,
• 12:38
  we have a new poll out,
• 12:39
  new poll,
• 12:40
  Nitia Rahman,
• 12:40
  and I call her Raman,
• 12:41
  some people call her Raman,
• 12:42
  whatever.
• 12:43
  I don't think she's a noodle.
• 12:44
  Some people think,
• 12:45
  some people call her
• 12:46
  the the Los Angeles noodle,
• 12:48
  and I don't,
• 12:49
  OK,
• 12:49
  I call her Raman.
• 12:51
  I don't,
• 12:52
  I don't know why.
• 12:53
  Yeah,
• 12:54
  we need to come up with a fun nickname for her.
• 12:56
  The Los Angeles Noodle is in effect.
• 12:58
  She's noodling her way
• 13:00
  to the mayoral,
• 13:01
  uh,
• 13:02
  win.
• 13:02
  Here she is.
• 13:03
  Nitia Rahman holds a lead now over Karen Bass in Newpole in LA mayoral election.
• 13:07
  And if you think about it this way.
• 13:09
  If you're,
• 13:10
  you're an LA voter,
• 13:11
  first of all,
• 13:12
  I'm sorry.
• 13:13
  I hope that they're still shipping in all of your medications because,
• 13:16
  uh,
• 13:16
  we know you're on some.
• 13:17
  If you're in LA you gotta be on some drugs,
• 13:19
  right?
• 13:20
  So you're in LA you're dealing with this,
• 13:22
  you gotta deal with the,
• 13:23
  with the,
• 13:23
  with the crazy city with crazy things going on,
• 13:25
  but
• 13:26
  you're most likely
• 13:27
  not a person
• 13:29
  who is,
• 13:30
  uh,
• 13:31
  necessarily engaged with conservative principles,
• 13:33
  right?
• 13:34
  You're on the left.
• 13:36
  And if you're on the left and you're looking at two candidates,
• 13:38
  um,
• 13:39
  where one is,
• 13:41
  uh,
• 13:41
  an out socialist
• 13:43
  endorsed by the Socialist Party,
• 13:44
  the DSA,
• 13:46
  uh,
• 13:46
  and
• 13:47
  the other option is just someone who's a really far left progressive Democrat.
• 13:53
  You're probably not offended by the socialist thing,
• 13:56
  right?
• 13:56
  Even if you are a big Democrat,
• 13:58
  the socialism thing,
• 13:59
  yeah,
• 13:59
  sure,
• 13:59
  it might be a little too far for some people,
• 14:01
  but generally speaking,
• 14:02
  it's not something that you just turn off like you might a Republican.
• 14:05
  Look,
• 14:05
  I'm being honest about this.
• 14:06
  This is,
• 14:07
  these are the voters of Los Angeles.
• 14:09
  You're talking about,
• 14:09
  uh,
• 14:09
  you know,
• 14:10
  a place where Donald Trump lost by 40 or 50 points.
• 14:13
  This is not a situation where they're considering Republican,
• 14:16
  uh,
• 14:16
  uh,
• 14:16
  candidates that often.
• 14:18
  And
• 14:19
  If you look at this and you say,
• 14:20
  well,
• 14:20
  wait a minute,
• 14:21
  if the if the first part of our analysis,
• 14:24
  where
• 14:25
  uh
• 14:26
  Karen Bass is uniquely terrible is true,
• 14:28
  which I think it is.
• 14:31
  Why wouldn't they vote for Nitia Rahman?
• 14:33
  That's kind of where I am on this race in my head right now,
• 14:36
  and the polls are getting there as well.
• 14:38
  Latest one from University of California,
• 14:40
  Berkeley Institute of Government Studies
• 14:43
  with the Los Angeles Times
• 14:44
  has Nitia Rahman up by
• 14:46
  11.
• 14:46
  Now,
• 14:47
  a massive,
• 14:48
  massive red flag on that 11 number I wanna give you in a second.
• 14:51
  You look at,
• 14:52
  um,
• 14:52
  uh,
• 14:52
  uh,
• 14:53
  Hart Research previously to that had Rahman up 5,
• 14:57
  a,
• 14:57
  uh.
• 14:58
  Uh,
• 14:58
  Nitia Rahman for mayor,
• 15:00
  LA 2026 poll,
• 15:01
  so affiliated with Rahman,
• 15:03
  had Bass up by 1
• 15:04
  in late August,
• 15:06
  and then earlier had Rahman up by 4 by the LA Times.
• 15:08
  So this poll has moved,
• 15:10
  if you see the two LA Times polls from May to September,
• 15:13
  has Rahman now ahead by 11.
• 15:16
  The thing I'm gonna give you on the 11-point thing is,
• 15:18
  uh,
• 15:18
  is,
• 15:19
  you know,
• 15:19
  again,
• 15:19
  mathematicians unite here.
• 15:21
  39 + 28,
• 15:23
  67.
• 15:25
  I mean there's 33% saying they're undecided or don't know.
• 15:29
  That's a massive,
• 15:31
  massive number after these candidates have been in this race for a very long time.
• 15:34
  So,
• 15:35
  warning bells there on that 11 number that,
• 15:37
  you know,
• 15:38
  if everyone comes to,
• 15:39
  to the Bass side at the end and said,
• 15:40
  I don't want socialism,
• 15:41
  she could easily lose this race.
• 15:44
  The,
• 15:45
  what,
• 15:45
  what really strikes me though in this race is our
• 15:49
  initial analysis on Bass as a candidate,
• 15:52
  that she's really,
• 15:53
  really bad and really,
• 15:54
  really disliked.
• 15:55
  She's done a real disservice to that,
• 15:57
  uh,
• 15:58
  city,
• 15:58
  and
• 15:59
  I don't say that lightly.
• 16:00
  I,
• 16:00
  I don't even say that as like,
• 16:02
  OK,
• 16:02
  well,
• 16:02
  I'm a conservative and I look at this and I say,
• 16:05
  well,
• 16:05
  I don't like any of their policies,
• 16:06
  which is true.
• 16:07
  I,
• 16:07
  I,
• 16:08
  you know,
• 16:08
  um,
• 16:08
  I,
• 16:08
  I,
• 16:09
  I don't know,
• 16:10
  I don't know the small business
• 16:11
  policies honestly that have been good.
• 16:13
  uh,
• 16:13
  I have not seen them.
• 16:14
  Uh,
• 16:14
  from Vermont,
• 16:15
  maybe they exist,
• 16:16
  uh,
• 16:16
  you know,
• 16:16
  I just haven't,
• 16:17
  I honestly haven't followed that as a,
• 16:18
  as a,
• 16:18
  as a policy
• 16:20
  sort of level,
• 16:21
  uh,
• 16:21
  all that closely.
• 16:23
  What I will say
• 16:24
  is that candidates with this profile
• 16:27
  have a really tough time winning elections.
• 16:29
  Let me give this to you.
• 16:30
  This is from that poll,
• 16:31
  LA Times.
• 16:32
  Now this is a poll again that shows
• 16:34
  that Bass is down by 11,
• 16:35
  so it was not a good poll for her.
• 16:37
  But these polls,
• 16:38
  these numbers are pretty consistent,
• 16:40
  uh,
• 16:40
  from what I've seen,
• 16:41
  or at least negative in the same way.
• 16:44
  The poll asked likely Los Angeles
• 16:46
  voters about the candidate's favorability ratings.
• 16:49
  Bass showed up
• 16:51
  28% favorable
• 16:53
  and 63% unfavorable.
• 16:57
  Now,
• 16:57
  one thing that we can see from history
• 17:00
  is when you have a race like this,
• 17:01
  typically what happens
• 17:03
  when you have an incumbent
• 17:05
  who is not popular,
• 17:07
  and a big swath of undecided voters.
• 17:11
  Usually what happens is they go against the incumbent.
• 17:14
  They say,
• 17:14
  OK,
• 17:15
  look,
• 17:15
  if I'm undecided,
• 17:16
  I know this one candidate,
• 17:17
  Bass,
• 17:18
  I don't like her very much,
• 17:20
  I'm undecided on where I should go.
• 17:22
  At the end of the day,
• 17:23
  people usually say,
• 17:24
  ah,
• 17:24
  screw it.
• 17:25
  This happened,
• 17:25
  by the way,
• 17:26
  with,
• 17:26
  uh,
• 17:27
  Donald Trump in 2016.
• 17:29
  You know,
• 17:29
  um,
• 17:29
  uh,
• 17:30
  people were,
• 17:30
  knew Hillary Clinton,
• 17:31
  they knew who she was,
• 17:32
  and those late breakers
• 17:34
  wound up breaking towards Trump
• 17:36
  in 2016,
• 17:37
  and it's one of the reasons
• 17:38
  he won.
• 17:39
  Uh,
• 17:39
  you could argue the same thing kind of
• 17:40
  happened in 2020 when Trump was already president.
• 17:43
  They said,
• 17:43
  well,
• 17:43
  let's try something else.
• 17:44
  You can argue the same thing happened in 2024
• 17:46
  after people had four years of Biden and people said,
• 17:48
  uh,
• 17:49
  let's try anything.
• 17:50
  Let's try somebody who can speak coherently.
• 17:52
  Um,
• 17:52
  that all,
• 17:53
  that stuff happens over and over and over again.
• 17:56
  When you have a 63% unfavorable rating,
• 18:01
  you notice a lot of people
• 18:02
  who are,
• 18:03
  uh,
• 18:03
  voting in this race,
• 18:04
  uh,
• 18:05
  you know,
• 18:05
  they look at us and they say,
• 18:06
  I don't necessarily have a strong opinion on who's going
• 18:08
  to win or where I'm gonna go on this,
• 18:10
  but
• 18:10
  I have a strong opinion on Bass.
• 18:11
  She sucks.
• 18:12
  By the way,
• 18:13
  uh,
• 18:13
  the rating for Rahman is about even,
• 18:16
  40% favorable,
• 18:17
  39% unfavorable.
• 18:20
  Uh,
• 18:20
  a couple of other things I want to point out here.
• 18:22
  Uh,
• 18:22
  this was in the analysis of the article.
• 18:24
  The DSA,
• 18:25
  this is from a guy,
• 18:26
  uh,
• 18:27
  this is from an NBC Los Angeles article.
• 18:29
  DSA is obviously a very far left,
• 18:31
  very progressive organization,
• 18:32
  very progressive ethos,
• 18:33
  said USA professor Dan Schnur,
• 18:35
  who teaches courses on politics and communications and leadership.
• 18:39
  But a lot of what people,
• 18:40
  but a lot of what drives it also is the need for so many young people in particular,
• 18:44
  for generational change.
• 18:46
  And in the attitude that it is time for their side of the political
• 18:49
  spectrum to fight back more aggressively.
• 18:51
  So you have that sort of fight,
• 18:52
  fight,
• 18:52
  fight thing on the left,
• 18:53
  right?
• 18:53
  They think,
• 18:54
  well,
• 18:54
  we need the fighters.
• 18:56
  I think that's true.
• 18:57
  I don't know how
• 18:58
  important that is for this race,
• 18:59
  but this part is important.
• 19:00
  What I'd say about this particular race is that Rahman,
• 19:03
  while she is still a DSA
• 19:04
  member,
• 19:05
  she's not running or winning this race
• 19:07
  because she's more progressive than Karen Bass.
• 19:09
  She's running,
• 19:09
  uh,
• 19:10
  because she represents dramatic change,
• 19:12
  and that more than left-right ideology is what was propelling her forward.
• 19:16
  Um,
• 19:17
  you,
• 19:17
  you know,
• 19:17
  you see this,
• 19:18
  and we're seeing some of the data from other areas.
• 19:20
  Um,
• 19:21
  the Palisades is furious with Karen Bass.
• 19:22
  Nitia Rahman is still a hard sell.
• 19:24
  They're not necessarily the typical socialists
• 19:27
  in that particular area,
• 19:28
  but they're saying,
• 19:29
  hey,
• 19:29
  normally I would rather go with an
• 19:31
  establishment Democrat or a left-wing establishment Democrat,
• 19:34
  but my house
• 19:35
  is currently rubble
• 19:37
  and has been for multiple years.
• 19:40
  So no,
• 19:41
  I'm not gonna put her back in.
• 19:43
  It's not an easy sell for a socialist.
• 19:45
  However,
• 19:46
  when your house has been reduced to concrete slab.
• 19:51
  Maybe you make an odd decision.
• 19:55
  And this I think is the more important thing,
• 19:57
  because we've seen this happen already and we have not seen any of the negative,
• 20:00
  really negative consequences yet that I believe will come
• 20:03
  from a guy like Mom Donnie in New York.
• 20:05
  Los Angeles is on the cusp of its mom Donnie
• 20:08
  moment.
• 20:09
  Number 1,
• 20:10
  it fits and it gives a great bookmark to this election season to have
• 20:14
  Mom Donnie win and run New York and
• 20:16
  Ramon win and win in Los Angeles,
• 20:18
  and I can't think of any negative consequences that could possibly
• 20:21
  come from turning over our two largest cities to socialists.
• 20:25
  What could possibly go wrong?
• 20:28
  That being said,
• 20:28
  I have a different analysis than a lot of people on this one,
• 20:31
  and I gotta say
• 20:33
  right now.
• 20:35
  I think Ramon is a good buy.
• 20:37
  This is where this race looks like at the moment.
• 20:39
  I think I'm gonna get.
• 20:41
  I
• 20:41
  get back into it.
• 20:43
  Just,
• 20:43
  uh,
• 20:44
  just give me one moment here.
• 20:45
  Uh,
• 20:46
  do we have the market?
• 20:47
  Let's bring that up.
• 20:48
  Uh,
• 20:49
  here we go.
• 20:51
  Rahman is now at 58%.
• 20:53
  You see the latest switch,
• 20:55
  which has happened over the last few rounds of polling,
• 20:57
  where Rahman has taken the lead
• 20:59
  and now,
• 21:00
  uh,
• 21:00
  leads 58 to 41%.
• 21:02
  If you go back a few,
• 21:03
  a couple of weeks,
• 21:04
  you see it was the opposite,
• 21:05
  basically a 65-35 race.
• 21:07
  And when we talked to Scotty Licious about this,
• 21:09
  he was,
• 21:10
  he was in there like 38,
• 21:12
  you know,
• 21:12
  37 or so in that general range.
• 21:15
  I think
• 21:16
  even though she's popped in the recent
• 21:18
  poll with
• 21:18
  thinking of this analysis and the way that this race
• 21:21
  should play out,
• 21:22
  I really like her at 58,
• 21:23
  frankly.
• 21:24
  In fact,
• 21:24
  uh,
• 21:25
  you know,
• 21:25
  as we're sitting here,
• 21:27
  Uh,
• 21:27
  and I'm,
• 21:28
  uh,
• 21:29
  I'm with you.
• 21:30
  I'm,
• 21:30
  I'm hosting this right now,
• 21:32
  um.
• 21:33
  I'm,
• 21:34
  I'm just gonna do this right here as we're
• 21:37
  just doing a little,
• 21:38
  it's a little,
• 21:39
  I mean,
• 21:39
  look.
• 21:41
  We're we're all friends here,
• 21:42
  and take a little position on Ramon.
• 21:45
  Uh,
• 21:45
  and I think I gotta get back into that race because I think honestly,
• 21:48
  at this price,
• 21:49
  it's a pretty good value.
• 21:50
  Now,
• 21:50
  she's not
• 21:52
  a great candidate.
• 21:52
  And if,
• 21:53
  you know,
• 21:53
  I don't know,
• 21:54
  I haven't looked at the debate schedule yet.
• 21:55
  That's why I only took a small position there.
• 21:57
  Um,
• 21:57
  uh,
• 21:57
  but I,
• 21:58
  I,
• 21:59
  she,
• 21:59
  if she has another debate,
• 22:00
  she could screw this up again.
• 22:02
  She's not a shoo-in,
• 22:03
  but I do like 50.
• 22:03
  I think she's more,
• 22:04
  uh,
• 22:04
  70.
• 22:06
  Why not?
• 22:07
  Why wouldn't she win this race?
• 22:09
  They hate Karen Bass,
• 22:10
  63% unfavorable.
• 22:12
  By the way,
• 22:12
  there's another market where they did a combo on this.
• 22:14
  I want to show you this real quick.
• 22:15
  This is LA mayor
• 22:16
  and California governor.
• 22:17
  Um,
• 22:18
  yeah,
• 22:18
  and it's Nitia Rahman and Javier Becerra.
• 22:23
  It's 63 right now,
• 22:25
  so you're getting it's interesting.
• 22:28
  Uh,
• 22:28
  63% chance it's Ramon and Becerra,
• 22:31
  but it's only 50,
• 22:34
  what was it,
• 22:34
  58 for just Ramon by herself?
• 22:37
  It's a fascinating one.
• 22:38
  Yeah,
• 22:38
  I mean,
• 22:39
  because Becera,
• 22:39
  look,
• 22:40
  I,
• 22:40
  you know,
• 22:40
  I,
• 22:40
  I'd like Hilton to win that race.
• 22:41
  I don't think that's gonna happen.
• 22:43
  Uh,
• 22:43
  but that's where we are right now in those two.
• 22:44
  I like those combos.
• 22:45
  I can get myself into those combos a little bit.
• 22:48
  Sometimes they're dangerous,
• 22:48
  I will admit.
• 22:50
  Uh,
• 22:50
  but sometimes they're not.
• 22:51
  Sometimes they're,
• 22:51
  they're interesting to watch.
• 22:53
  So that's where I am right now.
• 22:53
  I'm,
• 22:54
  I'm back in that market.
• 22:55
  I'm back in on Nitia Rahman,
• 22:57
  the,
• 22:57
  the Los Angeles noodle.
• 22:59
  She's on my,
• 22:59
  I,
• 23:00
  let's go noodle.
• 23:01
  Look,
• 23:03
  LA's already burned to the ground once.
• 23:04
  I don't see how it could possibly get any worse.
• 23:07
  What do I care who runs that city?
• 23:08
  Uh,
• 23:09
  I'd rather profit off of it.
• 23:10
  Hopefully,
• 23:10
  you're in that same position.
• 23:11
  If you think,
• 23:12
  by the way,
• 23:12
  if you think Karen Bass is gonna come back and win that,
• 23:14
  that's really good value on Bass.
• 23:16
  Uh,
• 23:17
  because,
• 23:17
  uh,
• 23:17
  you know,
• 23:18
  she has
• 23:19
  what you would think is all the resources and that and those sort of,
• 23:22
  uh,
• 23:22
  values,
• 23:22
  um,
• 23:23
  you know,
• 23:23
  the,
• 23:24
  the,
• 23:24
  the incumbency advantages.
• 23:26
  I just think in this particular situation,
• 23:28
  in this
• 23:28
  scene in that city
• 23:30
  where half of it's still like,
• 23:32
  uh,
• 23:32
  you know,
• 23:32
  a bunch of rubble
• 23:33
  and and occasional palm tree standing up inside
• 23:36
  of what used to be multi-million dollar houses.
• 23:38
  I don't know,
• 23:39
  man.
• 23:39
  I'm pretty skeptical on her chances to win that race.
• 23:42
  As long as it stays quiet,
• 23:43
  Ramon just needs to stay out of the news.
• 23:45
  She probably walks to victory.
• 23:47
  She could get in there and say something stupid as well and screw this up,
• 23:50
  but 57,
• 23:51
  58%,
• 23:52
  I like the value there.
• 23:53
  OK,
• 23:53
  we're gonna take a break,
• 23:54
  come back on the other side.
• 23:54
  We have another candidate I wanna get to where
• 23:56
  the value seems really,
• 23:57
  really good.
• 23:58
  I gotta be honest with you.
• 24:00
  But are,
• 24:00
  is there,
• 24:02
  is there more to it?
• 24:03
  We'll get into that next.
• 24:23
  All right,
• 24:23
  it's time for candidate countdown.
• 24:25
  Every day,
• 24:26
  we come up with a new candidate,
• 24:27
  uh,
• 24:28
  that I like,
• 24:29
  uh,
• 24:30
  a position that I wanna take in a prediction market.
• 24:34
  Uh,
• 24:34
  I have over 350.
• 24:36
  Now,
• 24:36
  positions,
• 24:37
  something like that in prediction markets.
• 24:39
  They're all up at predictableShow.com.
• 24:41
  If you're a premium subscriber,
• 24:42
  you can just see them.
• 24:43
  You don't have to wait for candidate countdown.
• 24:45
  You don't have to wait for me to blab about it on the show.
• 24:47
  You can go in there and say,
• 24:47
  hey,
• 24:48
  this,
• 24:48
  this position looks really good.
• 24:49
  I wanna jump on that bandwagon with Stu
• 24:51
  or that position looks like uh he's a moron.
• 24:53
  I'm gonna go the opposite way.
• 24:56
  We've been talking about this,
• 24:57
  uh,
• 24:58
  you know,
• 24:58
  for a while.
• 24:58
  We've done a bunch of candidates.
• 25:00
  Some of,
• 25:00
  I will say some of them,
• 25:02
  after we've talked about them,
• 25:04
  have had their worst news of the campaign.
• 25:06
  It's been like 5 different times this has happened during this segment.
• 25:09
  So,
• 25:10
  I am a little nervous anytime I go in on a
• 25:13
  candidate because I'm afraid I'm going to ruin their political careers.
• 25:16
  Or
• 25:17
  we can be strategic with that particular power
• 25:19
  and see what happens there as well.
• 25:21
  Um,
• 25:21
  OK,
• 25:21
  so we have 35 days until the election.
• 25:24
  Our candidate countdown
• 25:25
  candidate of the day with 35 days left.
• 25:27
  We do a daily pick on,
• 25:29
  uh,
• 25:29
  every day until election day.
• 25:31
  And our candidate countdown candidate of the day is.
• 25:35
  Dan Osborne in Nebraska,
• 25:38
  most specifically,
• 25:40
  it's a very important detail here,
• 25:42
  the no position.
• 25:44
  On Dan Osborne,
• 25:45
  you might say,
• 25:46
  well,
• 25:46
  why wouldn't you just take the yes position on Ricketts.
• 25:50
  There's a very clear reason for that.
• 26:11
  Yes.
• 26:12
  Instead of taking yes positions
• 26:15
  on uh on candidates I might want to win,
• 26:18
  I'm taking no positions on the ones I want to lose,
• 26:21
  hoping the candidate curse will then strike them down.
• 26:26
  Look,
• 26:26
  it wasn't me who came up with this idea,
• 26:28
  it was one of you,
• 26:29
  OK?
• 26:29
  I,
• 26:30
  you're like,
• 26:31
  hey,
• 26:31
  if you keep cursing these candidates,
• 26:32
  uh,
• 26:33
  why don't you just go no on the candidates you'd rather have lose.
• 26:35
  So that's what we're trying today.
• 26:37
  I'm,
• 26:38
  this is a a a a position where I believe the no position
• 26:42
  on,
• 26:43
  uh,
• 26:44
  Dan Osborne is a pretty good spot.
• 26:47
  And,
• 26:47
  and if you look at just polling,
• 26:48
  you might be a little nervous on this,
• 26:49
  but I wanna walk you through a deeper analysis on this and some really big
• 26:53
  recent developments that have gone on here in the last like 24 to 48 hours.
• 26:57
  Um,
• 26:57
  let me give you a couple of things.
• 26:58
  One of the reasons why I think this is,
• 27:00
  uh,
• 27:00
  um,
• 27:01
  a,
• 27:01
  a,
• 27:01
  a good position to go,
• 27:02
  no on Dan Osborne in Nebraska.
• 27:05
  Uh,
• 27:05
  he's quote unquote,
• 27:07
  an independent.
• 27:08
  We talked yesterday,
• 27:09
  we went through the rise of the fake independents yesterday.
• 27:12
  These fake independents are all over the country.
• 27:14
  And the,
• 27:15
  the only one that really seems like they have
• 27:16
  a chance of winning is Osborne in Nebraska.
• 27:19
  One of the reasons why it's a problem,
• 27:22
  uh,
• 27:23
  for,
• 27:23
  uh,
• 27:24
  for Republicans is like,
• 27:25
  you know,
• 27:25
  people just don't,
• 27:26
  if you're a Republican,
• 27:27
  you've been a Republican your whole life,
• 27:28
  you'd never vote for a Democrat,
• 27:30
  that's just the way your family's been,
• 27:31
  you've always been that way.
• 27:32
  Well,
• 27:32
  an independent,
• 27:33
  maybe I could talk myself into,
• 27:34
  and so it's a,
• 27:35
  it's an interesting strategy and probably a good strategy for Democrats.
• 27:38
  However,
• 27:39
  just so you know,
• 27:40
  it is a,
• 27:40
  yeah,
• 27:41
  this is a fake,
• 27:42
  he's just a fake independent.
• 27:43
  He's a Democrat.
• 27:44
  Um,
• 27:45
  he's,
• 27:45
  people keep asking him,
• 27:46
  well,
• 27:46
  who are you gonna caucus with?
• 27:47
  And he's like,
• 27:47
  oh,
• 27:48
  nobody,
• 27:49
  everybody all over the,
• 27:50
  who would I caucus with?
• 27:51
  Everybody.
• 27:52
  That's this new thing.
• 27:53
  First it was nobody,
• 27:54
  now it's everybody.
• 27:56
  OK,
• 27:57
  OK.
• 27:58
  Now,
• 27:58
  again,
• 27:59
  how,
• 28:00
  look,
• 28:00
  forget who he's caucusing with,
• 28:01
  whatever dumb definition they have these days of what that term means.
• 28:05
  The bottom line is who's he gonna vote with?
• 28:06
  He's gonna vote with Democrats over and over and
• 28:09
  over and over and over and over again.
• 28:12
  And if you want a Democratic senator,
• 28:14
  you pick Dan Osborne.
• 28:15
  If you don't,
• 28:16
  you go the opposite way.
• 28:19
  Now,
• 28:19
  Osborne,
• 28:20
  I do,
• 28:20
  look,
• 28:20
  I gotta be honest with you,
• 28:21
  I don't like the guy.
• 28:22
  I don't like the guy.
• 28:23
  I don't,
• 28:23
  I,
• 28:23
  the strategy,
• 28:24
  while it might be an effective electoral strategy,
• 28:26
  it might be a smart move for the Democratic Party,
• 28:29
  is really irritating to me as a human being.
• 28:31
  Like the fact that they're just coming out here and
• 28:33
  blatantly lying to voters and trying to manipulate them.
• 28:35
  I don't like it.
• 28:36
  I don't like him.
• 28:37
  I don't like the way he acts.
• 28:38
  I don't like
• 28:39
  the way he thinks about people.
• 28:41
  I,
• 28:41
  I,
• 28:41
  you know,
• 28:42
  he,
• 28:42
  he,
• 28:42
  he,
• 28:43
  look,
• 28:43
  he is,
• 28:44
  if you remember back in the 2008 campaign.
• 28:47
  Uh,
• 28:47
  Barack Obama came up and he said,
• 28:49
  oh gosh,
• 28:49
  you know,
• 28:49
  these people,
• 28:50
  and he said it,
• 28:51
  I would say in a somewhat,
• 28:53
  to give him a break,
• 28:55
  somewhat kind way.
• 28:56
  It was like,
• 28:57
  you know,
• 28:57
  these people,
• 28:59
  uh,
• 28:59
  they're just,
• 29:00
  uh,
• 29:01
  they,
• 29:01
  they're just thinking about their gods and their guns,
• 29:04
  and,
• 29:04
  you know,
• 29:05
  they're all scared about illegal immigrants and,
• 29:07
  you know,
• 29:07
  you have to understand that's why they won't necessarily vote for me right away,
• 29:10
  but I'll win them over.
• 29:11
  Like that was kind of his vibe.
• 29:13
  Hillary Clinton attempted the same type of thing with the uh what was it uh
• 29:17
  look there's a basket of deplorables over there and you know some of those
• 29:20
  people we're never gonna get but some of the good ones we'll get.
• 29:24
  That that's basically what just happened with Dan Osborne.
• 29:27
  He was caught on tape
• 29:28
  saying very similar things.
• 29:30
  Now again,
• 29:31
  if this guy was an independent,
• 29:33
  he would not be talking this way.
• 29:35
  Um,
• 29:36
  he,
• 29:37
  he's making excuses as to why anyone would vote for a Republican.
• 29:40
  Democrats backed an independent in Nebraska.
• 29:42
  Leaked tapes make him a risky bet.
• 29:45
  He said that,
• 29:46
  uh,
• 29:47
  the,
• 29:47
  now again,
• 29:48
  we're supposed to believe this guy's an independent.
• 29:51
  He's not a Democrat.
• 29:53
  Remember the border?
• 29:54
  Do you care about that if you're in Nebraska?
• 29:55
  Do you remember the border?
• 29:57
  The border wall?
• 29:58
  What was he saying about the border wall?
• 30:01
  He called it a symbol of racism.
• 30:03
  Does that sound like an independent or does that sound like a Democrat?
• 30:11
  He also went on to say,
• 30:13
  um,
• 30:13
  he's talking about Trump voters.
• 30:16
  Uh,
• 30:16
  and he said,
• 30:17
  Billy Bob in effing Red Cloud,
• 30:19
  Nebraska,
• 30:20
  who lives next door to the effing Trump store,
• 30:22
  as you pull into town and he's waving his Trump flag,
• 30:25
  and all he knows,
• 30:27
  again,
• 30:27
  they always have to be stupid.
• 30:29
  If they won't support that Democrat,
• 30:31
  uh,
• 30:31
  or the independent,
• 30:33
  they must be stupid.
• 30:33
  And now you see why they think this tactic will work.
• 30:37
  Cause they think you're dumb.
• 30:41
  All he thinks,
• 30:42
  all he knows is
• 30:44
  all these morons know is blah blah blah blah blah blah blah.
• 30:47
  They think you're an idiot,
• 30:49
  they think you can't see through the eye.
• 30:52
  They think you're gonna see a guy who's blatantly a Democrat posing as a Republican,
• 30:58
  and they think it's gonna work.
• 31:00
  I don't know,
• 31:01
  Nebraska,
• 31:01
  maybe it will,
• 31:02
  I don't know.
• 31:03
  I have much more faith in you than that.
• 31:05
  Especially when you're trying it for the 2nd time,
• 31:07
  the 2nd election in a row.
• 31:09
  Um,
• 31:10
  anyway,
• 31:10
  he goes on and says,
• 31:11
  uh,
• 31:12
  you know,
• 31:12
  you,
• 31:12
  all he knows is like he's on the winning team.
• 31:15
  He,
• 31:15
  uh,
• 31:15
  Trump has been so effective in taking Billy Bob
• 31:18
  and Mary Jane or Mary Joe and telling them,
• 31:21
  look,
• 31:22
  you're on the winning team,
• 31:23
  and that's all they care about cause their lives probably suck.
• 31:28
  That's what he said about you in Nebraska.
• 31:31
  That's who this guy is.
• 31:34
  Independent,
• 31:35
  my ass,
• 31:36
  independent.
• 31:37
  Look,
• 31:37
  just be honest about who you are.
• 31:39
  Look,
• 31:39
  I try to win on your own merits.
• 31:41
  Stop trying to fool people.
• 31:43
  I get that it's a good electoral strategy.
• 31:45
  There's a part of me,
• 31:46
  a dark part of me that even mildly admires
• 31:50
  the chutzpah,
• 31:51
  but please,
• 31:53
  please.
• 31:54
  Anyway,
• 31:56
  that's the candidate.
• 31:56
  Now,
• 31:57
  uh,
• 31:57
  elected officials across,
• 31:58
  uh,
• 31:58
  rural Nebraska are pissed off about this.
• 32:00
  They penned an open letter to Dan Osborne telling him,
• 32:02
  hey,
• 32:02
  explain yourself.
• 32:04
  And why you're such a jerk and saying
• 32:06
  no one,
• 32:07
  none of these voters know what they're talking about and their lives suck.
• 32:11
  Uh,
• 32:11
  this is what the polls look for,
• 32:13
  and,
• 32:13
  and look,
• 32:13
  the polls have been really,
• 32:14
  really close enough to put it in a toss-up category.
• 32:17
  Um,
• 32:18
  Wedgwood has it at Ricketts +4.
• 32:20
  It's been the best poll in a while for Ricketts.
• 32:23
  Osborne +1,
• 32:24
  Osborne + 1,
• 32:25
  even and even.
• 32:26
  That goes back to end of,
• 32:27
  end of July.
• 32:27
  So this is a very close race.
• 32:29
  Um.
• 32:31
  Let me give you a couple of points though,
• 32:33
  which kind of won me over on this one.
• 32:36
  Uh,
• 32:36
  Ricketts has
• 32:37
  already a known figure in the state,
• 32:39
  and
• 32:39
  he's done very,
• 32:40
  very well.
• 32:41
  His last three statewide races,
• 32:43
  he's won by double digits.
• 32:44
  He won by 18
• 32:46
  in 2014.
• 32:47
  2000,
• 32:48
  again,
• 32:48
  pretty good year for Republicans.
• 32:49
  However,
• 32:50
  pretty bad year for Republicans in 2018,
• 32:52
  he won again by 18 points.
• 32:54
  So,
• 32:55
  he actually improved his standing,
• 32:57
  uh,
• 32:57
  between 2014 and 2018.
• 32:59
  In 2024,
• 33:00
  he won by 25.
• 33:02
  So this is a guy who usually wins
• 33:04
  in Nebraska.
• 33:05
  Uh,
• 33:05
  he got 62.6% of the vote.
• 33:08
  Uh,
• 33:08
  he,
• 33:09
  uh,
• 33:10
  was in 2024 when Osborne was there,
• 33:13
  he also
• 33:14
  ran,
• 33:14
  uh,
• 33:14
  for,
• 33:15
  uh,
• 33:15
  governor,
• 33:16
  as I mentioned,
• 33:16
  he won by,
• 33:17
  uh,
• 33:17
  uh,
• 33:17
  Senate in 2024.
• 33:19
  He won by,
• 33:19
  uh,
• 33:19
  25 points.
• 33:21
  Um,
• 33:22
  uh,
• 33:23
  yeah.
• 33:24
  Uh,
• 33:25
  and then in 20,
• 33:26
  uh,
• 33:26
  in that same race,
• 33:27
  remember there's two races,
• 33:28
  uh,
• 33:28
  in that particular election.
• 33:30
  Deb Fisher was the other race,
• 33:32
  Fisher went up against Osborne.
• 33:33
  They targeted.
• 33:35
  Uh,
• 33:35
  Osborne targeted with his independent candidacy,
• 33:38
  targeted Fisher because he saw her as the weaker candidate.
• 33:41
  Now he comes back in a different environment,
• 33:43
  uh,
• 33:44
  no question,
• 33:44
  a more favorable,
• 33:45
  uh,
• 33:46
  environment for Democrats,
• 33:47
  but comes back and now they're targeting who they
• 33:49
  saw as a stronger candidate who was Ricketts.
• 33:51
  Um,
• 33:52
  Ricketts won,
• 33:53
  uh,
• 33:53
  and outperformed Fisher by a wide margin last time in just a,
• 33:57
  just a couple of years ago.
• 33:59
  Um,
• 34:00
  Trump,
• 34:00
  uh,
• 34:00
  carried Nebraska by 20.5 points in 2024.
• 34:04
  Uh,
• 34:04
  obviously this is a red state.
• 34:05
  I don't need to tell you that.
• 34:06
  The registration part though is one of the things that won me over the most.
• 34:10
  Registration in Nebraska goes like this.
• 34:13
  There are 620,000 Republicans registered in Nebraska.
• 34:17
  There are 328,000 Democrats.
• 34:21
  You might say,
• 34:21
  well,
• 34:21
  you know,
• 34:22
  again,
• 34:22
  he's running as an independent.
• 34:23
  True.
• 34:23
  There are 282,000,
• 34:26
  uh,
• 34:26
  nonpartisan voters,
• 34:28
  OK.
• 34:30
  Uh,
• 34:30
  you add those up.
• 34:33
  You add up
• 34:35
  All the Democrats
• 34:37
  and all the independents,
• 34:38
  you get all of them,
• 34:39
  which obviously you won't do,
• 34:41
  you won't get all the independents.
• 34:43
  Uh,
• 34:44
  you add them all up and you still don't equal up
• 34:46
  to just what you have in Republicans in the state.
• 34:49
  That is a pretty remarkable situation there.
• 34:53
  It's close between those two groups.
• 34:55
  If you take Republicans versus Democrats plus Independents,
• 34:57
  it's close,
• 34:58
  but there's still more Republicans
• 35:00
  in the state of Nebraska.
• 35:01
  That's how red the state is.
• 35:03
  Um,
• 35:03
  Ricketts also,
• 35:04
  uh,
• 35:05
  he,
• 35:05
  he's from a very wealthy family,
• 35:06
  the owner of the Chicago Cubs,
• 35:08
  they have lots and lots of money.
• 35:09
  Uh,
• 35:09
  so
• 35:10
  not only does he raise money very well,
• 35:11
  but also has a lot of money if he needs it,
• 35:13
  uh,
• 35:13
  has much more campaign cash,
• 35:15
  um,
• 35:15
  and,
• 35:16
  uh,
• 35:16
  he is now leading in the most recent poll.
• 35:19
  If you want to look at the case against him,
• 35:20
  Osborne was close.
• 35:21
  He was only,
• 35:21
  only lost by 7 last time.
• 35:23
  This is a much more favorable environment for Democrats.
• 35:25
  Um,
• 35:26
  you know,
• 35:26
  you have,
• 35:27
  uh,
• 35:28
  Ricketts's favorability is not
• 35:30
  wonderful.
• 35:31
  Uh,
• 35:32
  he was at 43% favorable,
• 35:33
  50% unfavorable.
• 35:35
  For a guy who's been around for a long time,
• 35:37
  those aren't terrible numbers.
• 35:38
  Um,
• 35:39
  when you have a guy who's been around for,
• 35:40
  for multiple elections,
• 35:42
  oftentimes people get a little tired of them,
• 35:43
  and that is a vulnerability for Ricketts potentially.
• 35:46
  Um.
• 35:48
  Let's see.
• 35:48
  Anything else in my notes here that I wanna hit
• 35:50
  you with cause we're running a little bit late.
• 35:53
  Uh,
• 35:55
  Osborne's campaign is getting more
• 35:57
  small donations,
• 35:58
  which sometimes is a measure of enthusiasm.
• 36:00
  It's also getting a lot of out of state donations because he's seen as a potential,
• 36:04
  uh,
• 36:04
  turning point in the Senate,
• 36:06
  so.
• 36:06
  Uh,
• 36:06
  you get that as well.
• 36:08
  But again,
• 36:08
  money should not be an issue for,
• 36:09
  uh,
• 36:09
  Ricketts,
• 36:10
  who does,
• 36:10
  uh,
• 36:11
  who uses it very well.
• 36:11
  So what does this market look like?
• 36:12
  Right now,
• 36:13
  it looks like this,
• 36:14
  uh,
• 36:14
  70% chance for 71% chance for Pete Ricketts to win.
• 36:18
  Dan Osborne is at 28%.
• 36:19
  That is slightly
• 36:21
  up for Ricketts,
• 36:22
  slightly down
• 36:23
  for Osborne.
• 36:24
  Uh,
• 36:24
  in the last few days,
• 36:25
  but not a massive change
• 36:28
  for,
• 36:28
  uh,
• 36:29
  give me that little,
• 36:29
  give me the last month or so here,
• 36:31
  Adam,
• 36:31
  on this,
• 36:32
  uh,
• 36:32
  particular chart.
• 36:33
  Go to the go to the closest point it was,
• 36:35
  which was,
• 36:35
  you know,
• 36:36
  September,
• 36:37
  a week or two ago.
• 36:38
  You kind of see here,
• 36:39
  you know,
• 36:40
  Ricketts was as low as 68.
• 36:42
  Um,
• 36:43
  that's about it.
• 36:44
  So it's moved a few points,
• 36:46
  2 to 3 points over the past few days.
• 36:48
  Uh,
• 36:49
  I really just think that Nebraska,
• 36:51
  people in Nebraska are gonna see through this.
• 36:53
  In fact,
• 36:53
  I'm gonna do this as we're.
• 36:56
  I keep doing this and this is probably not
• 36:57
  what you're supposed to do on the television show,
• 36:59
  but I'm just thinking as I,
• 37:00
  as I'm thinking about it,
• 37:02
  uh,
• 37:02
  Osborne.
• 37:05
  Uh,
• 37:06
  Nebraska.
• 37:09
  I can't type,
• 37:09
  you know,
• 37:10
  as I get older,
• 37:11
  I get
• 37:12
  worse and worse at this.
• 37:14
  I'm actually getting all sorts of football stuff.
• 37:16
  I'm gonna have to do that a little bit separately.
• 37:17
  Uh,
• 37:17
  but Ricketts,
• 37:18
  uh,
• 37:19
  I'm not gonna say Ricketts,
• 37:20
  yes,
• 37:20
  is the candidate of the day,
• 37:21
  no,
• 37:21
  no.
• 37:22
  The candidate of the day
• 37:23
  is no
• 37:25
  on Dan Osborne.
• 37:26
  And I think,
• 37:27
  you know,
• 37:28
  look at,
• 37:29
  if you're going in,
• 37:30
  you're taking
• 37:31
  somebody at 70,
• 37:32
  you're getting 30 cents profit on every 70 cents you invest.
• 37:35
  That's a 42.9%,
• 37:37
  uh,
• 37:37
  profit margin.
• 37:38
  Um,
• 37:39
  and so that is a really nice profit in 5 weeks.
• 37:41
  I don't need to tell you that.
• 37:42
  Now,
• 37:42
  I don't,
• 37:43
  I,
• 37:43
  I,
• 37:43
  this is not a guaranteed win.
• 37:44
  I don't think for sure he's going to win.
• 37:45
  I think this is gonna be relatively close,
• 37:47
  but I do think at the end of the day,
• 37:49
  uh,
• 37:50
  people come home.
• 37:51
  It's one of our thesis statements as the election approaches,
• 37:53
  people start to come home.
• 37:55
  I think Ricketts squeaks this one out,
• 37:57
  uh,
• 37:57
  and I like the value at 70 cents.
• 37:59
  I don't think I would buy it above.
• 38:02
  80 to 85.
• 38:04
  I,
• 38:05
  I,
• 38:05
  you know,
• 38:05
  85,
• 38:06
  I'd be nervous to buy more.
• 38:07
  Uh,
• 38:07
  70,
• 38:08
  I still like it.
• 38:09
  So,
• 38:09
  that's where I am right now.
• 38:10
  Um,
• 38:11
  the candidate of the day is the no position
• 38:14
  on Dan Osborne,
• 38:15
  the independent.
• 38:17
  From Nebraska.
• 38:31
  You know,
• 38:31
  a really sad statement about our country with all the election stuff going on.
• 38:34
  We're only 5 weeks away,
• 38:35
  and some people waste time watching
• 38:38
  football.
• 38:39
  Uh,
• 38:39
  I find it to be disgusting
• 38:41
  and,
• 38:41
  uh,
• 38:41
  in,
• 38:41
  in a,
• 38:42
  in a moment like this,
• 38:43
  in a country like this,
• 38:44
  at a time like this,
• 38:45
  I will not lower myself to watch Monday Night Football.
• 38:49
  No,
• 38:49
  I'm not gonna do that.
• 38:50
  I don't even know what happened.
• 38:51
  Uh,
• 38:51
  in fact,
• 38:52
  what do I care anyway?
• 38:55
  Well,
• 38:56
  all right,
• 38:56
  well,
• 38:56
  so the Eagles lost and they lost terribly and they looked awful.
• 38:59
  OK,
• 38:59
  that's what happened,
• 39:00
  all right?
• 39:01
  You wanna celebrate,
• 39:02
  you wanna mock me for my pain?
• 39:04
  Go ahead,
• 39:04
  go ahead.
• 39:06
  They lost 27 to 7
• 39:08
  to the Bears
• 39:09
  and their third string quarterback,
• 39:11
  who,
• 39:11
  by the way,
• 39:12
  looked incredible.
• 39:13
  Let's be honest about it.
• 39:14
  Yes,
• 39:14
  the Eagles sucked.
• 39:15
  Yes,
• 39:15
  they looked bad.
• 39:16
  Case Keenum looked like the greatest quarterback of all time,
• 39:19
  and he's done that occasionally in his career.
• 39:21
  If one of the fun things,
• 39:22
  if you just,
• 39:22
  this is separate from prediction markets,
• 39:24
  but if you just want to go back and look at some fun stats,
• 39:25
  go back and look at,
• 39:26
  particularly his senior year
• 39:28
  at Houston.
• 39:30
  It's the most amazing thing.
• 39:31
  He's over 500 yards multiple times in that season.
• 39:35
  Uh,
• 39:35
  they're scoring over 70 points in games.
• 39:37
  It was just like,
• 39:38
  oh,
• 39:38
  it was a fun era of college football,
• 39:40
  man.
• 39:40
  I,
• 39:40
  I love those offenses.
• 39:42
  And he has,
• 39:42
  I think,
• 39:42
  basically every record,
• 39:44
  uh,
• 39:44
  imaginable in college football when it comes to passing yards.
• 39:47
  I always liked Case Keenum.
• 39:48
  Uh,
• 39:48
  I did not like him last night that much,
• 39:50
  but he was great.
• 39:51
  He was fantastic,
• 39:51
  even,
• 39:52
  uh,
• 39:52
  he has even played in 3 years and he still looked great.
• 39:54
  Uh,
• 39:55
  overall though,
• 39:56
  I want to point this back to what I've said to you,
• 39:58
  and I said to you multiple times,
• 39:59
  and like,
• 40:00
  I will hedge my life.
• 40:02
  It's one of the things I do on prediction markets.
• 40:04
  For things I really want to happen,
• 40:05
  I often,
• 40:06
  even blindly,
• 40:07
  even if I think the thing I want to happen is going to happen,
• 40:10
  I will go in and I will take a position against it,
• 40:12
  cause I'm hedging my life.
• 40:13
  Why?
• 40:14
  I wanna get paid for my pain.
• 40:15
  I want,
• 40:16
  if the Philadelphia Eagles are gonna go 8 and,
• 40:18
  you know,
• 40:19
  9
• 40:20
  this year.
• 40:21
  I should be paid for that.
• 40:22
  I have to sit there and watch 3 hours of that season,
• 40:25
  every single week.
• 40:26
  I should be compensated
• 40:28
  for my troubles,
• 40:29
  OK?
• 40:30
  So I will do that.
• 40:31
  However,
• 40:32
  I will also tell you when I think it's actually true.
• 40:35
  And in this case,
• 40:37
  I gotta be honest with you,
• 40:38
  I've watched these guys play for 3,
• 40:40
  games.
• 40:40
  Their,
• 40:40
  their offense at times has looked OK.
• 40:43
  Their defense,
• 40:43
  which is supposed to be great,
• 40:45
  and honestly I thought was going to be very,
• 40:46
  very good,
• 40:47
  looks terrible so far.
• 40:48
  Terrible.
• 40:51
  There,
• 40:51
  this is not a team that's winning 13 games this season.
• 40:55
  Will they squeak into the playoffs?
• 40:56
  It's possible.
• 40:57
  I could see him going 10 and 7,
• 40:59
  maybe,
• 40:59
  maybe even 11 and 6.
• 41:01
  I could also see him going in 8 and 9 or 7 and 10.
• 41:03
  Like they are one of those teams.
• 41:04
  They're in the middle.
• 41:05
  If things break the right way,
• 41:06
  if injuries go the right way,
• 41:08
  they could squeak into the playoffs,
• 41:09
  but I do not think that they're,
• 41:11
  uh,
• 41:11
  I just don't think this is the year.
• 41:12
  This is the market for,
• 41:14
  uh,
• 41:14
  wins for the Philadelphia Eagles this year.
• 41:16
  And you see it spiking cause they,
• 41:17
  every time they win,
• 41:18
  it spikes.
• 41:19
  Um,
• 41:19
  but I got news and it spiked again when
• 41:21
  it looked like their second string quarterback was out.
• 41:24
  Uh,
• 41:24
  but,
• 41:25
  uh,
• 41:26
  scroll down and give me these,
• 41:27
  uh,
• 41:28
  numbers here if we go down.
• 41:29
  I mean,
• 41:29
  I was,
• 41:29
  I have no on a bunch of these like,
• 41:32
  uh,
• 41:32
  let's see,
• 41:33
  go to 1314 wins here.
• 41:35
  OK,
• 41:35
  guys,
• 41:36
  guys,
• 41:36
  guys,
• 41:37
  guys.
• 41:37
  There is not a 17% chance this team is winning 14 games this year.
• 41:42
  That is insane.
• 41:44
  That's not happening.
• 41:45
  13 wins,
• 41:46
  there's not a
• 41:47
  22% chance they're winning 13 games this season.
• 41:50
  No,
• 41:51
  I don't believe that at all.
• 41:52
  I have no positions all over the board on this.
• 41:55
  Now,
• 41:55
  you see that the prices,
• 41:56
  uh,
• 41:56
  if you look at
• 41:58
  14 wins,
• 41:58
  actually you can only get that for,
• 42:00
  it's only 10% chance really when it comes to the market.
• 42:03
  Uh,
• 42:04
  but
• 42:04
  I like a lot of no positions up here.
• 42:07
  If you just want,
• 42:07
  you want to be safe,
• 42:08
  take those.
• 42:08
  I mean,
• 42:09
  15 wins.
• 42:11
  So they're gonna only lose one game for the rest of the year?
• 42:14
  No,
• 42:14
  I don't think so.
• 42:15
  Get those,
• 42:16
  uh,
• 42:16
  you know,
• 42:16
  if you want to take some no positions,
• 42:17
  I would definitely look at that.
• 42:18
  Go back to more like 8 or 9 wins.
• 42:21
  Where are we on that?
• 42:22
  Uh,
• 42:23
  uh,
• 42:25
  let's see,
• 42:25
  8 wins,
• 42:26
  you can get,
• 42:27
  uh,
• 42:28
  will they win,
• 42:29
  if,
• 42:29
  will they win 8 games?
• 42:30
  If you wanna,
• 42:30
  uh,
• 42:31
  I would say
• 42:31
  9 games,
• 42:32
  no,
• 42:32
  at 23.
• 42:34
  It's not terrible,
• 42:35
  not terrible.
• 42:36
  I like that.
• 42:36
  By the way,
• 42:36
  we also have the playoffs,
• 42:37
  uh,
• 42:38
  there.
• 42:38
  By the way,
• 42:38
  that's just free advice from an Eagles fan.
• 42:40
  Um,
• 42:40
  uh,
• 42:41
  which playoff rotation has the edge?
• 42:43
  The most gripping wild card matchup,
• 42:45
  the athletic goes through a lot of this stuff.
• 42:47
  And I wanna just give you a quick shot because the,
• 42:48
  uh,
• 42:48
  the MLB playoffs start tonight.
• 42:50
  My,
• 42:50
  as you know,
• 42:50
  you already won money on my team losing the Toronto Blue Jays,
• 42:53
  America's team.
• 42:54
  Uh,
• 42:54
  they're out of the playoffs
• 42:55
  and they cannot defend their AL title.
• 42:56
  But,
• 42:57
  uh,
• 42:58
  the,
• 42:58
  the market is still out there.
• 42:59
  This is pro baseball champion.
• 43:01
  It's been active for a long time.
• 43:02
  Already won
• 43:03
  money in this market on the Blue Jays.
• 43:04
  No.
• 43:04
  Uh,
• 43:05
  you see the Dodgers,
• 43:05
  of course,
• 43:06
  the favorite at 31% to win.
• 43:08
  Milwaukee is at 17%.
• 43:09
  Scroll down to some of these other options here,
• 43:10
  Adam.
• 43:11
  Uh,
• 43:11
  Tampa,
• 43:12
  Tampa's at 10.6%,
• 43:13
  had the best record in the American League if you like that one.
• 43:16
  The Yankees are always gonna be up there.
• 43:17
  They're at 8.9%.
• 43:18
  Now Aaron Judge though for this first series.
• 43:20
  I hate these three-game series.
• 43:22
  They should get rid of them.
• 43:23
  Five games should be the absolute minimum.
• 43:24
  I would like them all to be seven,
• 43:25
  frankly.
• 43:26
  Uh,
• 43:26
  but 3 games is ridiculous.
• 43:28
  So God only knows what's gonna happen in this first series.
• 43:31
  Atlanta kind of interesting,
• 43:32
  you know,
• 43:33
  they got,
• 43:33
  you know,
• 43:34
  they got a couple.
• 43:34
  pitchers there and they've got,
• 43:36
  you know,
• 43:36
  like I don't know,
• 43:37
  kind of interesting as a longer
• 43:38
  shot,
• 43:38
  but what I like to do here is build positions on no.
• 43:41
  If you think there's people that are not gonna win,
• 43:43
  if you think Houston's no,
• 43:44
  Chicago's no,
• 43:45
  you can just start building those positions,
• 43:46
  taking them early
• 43:47
  and wiping out value and then
• 43:49
  hopefully,
• 43:50
  as you get closer,
• 43:50
  you can kind of,
• 43:51
  uh,
• 43:52
  collect a little bit on that.
• 43:53
  Uh,
• 43:53
  that's what I like to do on these bigger markets is try to find,
• 43:56
  instead of trying to find the one team you think will win,
• 43:59
  unless you just wanna
• 43:59
  have fun and go for long shots,
• 44:01
  take a bunch of nos,
• 44:02
  cause even if you miss on that,
• 44:04
  the other no positions will help cancel out your loss amount.
• 44:07
  All right,
• 44:07
  back in a second.
• 44:17
  All right,
• 44:18
  that's all we have time for.
• 44:18
  We have some really cool,
• 44:19
  uh,
• 44:20
  stuff on the website though.
• 44:21
  If you want to go over there and
• 44:23
  kind of get locked into additional information.
• 44:26
  The PMC,
• 44:26
  the predictable midterm consensus,
• 44:28
  is up there for you.
• 44:29
  It's free if you wanna look at the House and the Senate and control.
• 44:31
  It's very important.
• 44:32
  I update it
• 44:33
  every day or every other day,
• 44:35
  um,
• 44:36
  and it's been moving,
• 44:37
  uh,
• 44:37
  on a day to day basis.
• 44:38
  So it's important to give you kind of a
• 44:39
  sense of as where everyone thinks things are going,
• 44:41
  not my opinion.
• 44:42
  But we also separate that so you can see
• 44:44
  the difference between what the experts are saying,
• 44:46
  what the prediction markets are saying,
• 44:48
  to see if maybe there's value there.
• 44:49
  We do through all Senate races behind the paywall,
• 44:52
  uh,
• 44:52
  if you're a predictable subscriber,
• 44:54
  part of the predictable posse,
• 44:56
  you get all those.
• 44:57
  You also,
• 44:58
  uh,
• 44:58
  get the Senate board which is completely free for you to play around with.
• 45:00
  You can share it.
• 45:01
  We showed it to you earlier,
• 45:02
  uh,
• 45:03
  today.
• 45:03
  Stu's picks over.
• 45:04
  350 different prediction market positions that I currently hold.
• 45:08
  Uh,
• 45:08
  you get all of those if you wanna look at those and,
• 45:10
  and,
• 45:11
  you know,
• 45:11
  either pick them apart or whatever,
• 45:12
  uh,
• 45:13
  that's available as far as your premium chat,
• 45:14
  uh,
• 45:15
  uh,
• 45:15
  premium subscription.
• 45:16
  We have a great chat as well,
• 45:18
  uh,
• 45:18
  and a new feature coming up this week that I think you're gonna love.
• 45:20
  It's gonna be,
• 45:21
  uh,
• 45:21
  it's just a lot of fun,
• 45:22
  and I think,
• 45:23
  uh,
• 45:23
  it'll be another way to
• 45:24
  get engaged in the elections.
• 45:25
  Only 5 weeks left.
• 45:27
  Time is ticking.
• 45:28
  Time is ticking.
• 45:29
  We're getting very,
• 45:30
  very close.
• 45:30
  So join us,
• 45:31
  predictableShow.com.
• 45:32
  And if you're new to prediction markets,
• 45:33
  you don't know what any of these things are,
• 45:35
  predictable101.com,
• 45:37
  we'll get you started.
• 45:37
  We'll see you soon.