Latest / Bloomberg Intelligence / Hoover's Kori Schake on Turkey/Russia: We Can Be Trouble(Audio)

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Hoover's Kori Schake on Turkey/Russia: We Can Be Trouble(Audio) · Bloomberg Intelligence

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  Speaker 1: business flash. You're listening to taking stock with Bim Box
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  Speaker 1: and Kathleen Hayes on Bloomberg radio. Last November, Turkey is
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  Speaker 1: shot down a Russian bomber on the Syrian border, and
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  Speaker 1: just this week the leaders of Russia and Turkey are
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  Speaker 1: patching up their quarrel and pledging to restore close economic relations. Indeed,
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  Speaker 1: the Russian President Vladimir Prutin said that Russian trade sanctions
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  Speaker 1: on Turkey would be phased out step by step. Here
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  Speaker 1: to tell us more is Corey shake Research Fellow, Hoover Institution,
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  Speaker 1: Stanford University. And she is also a former White House
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  Speaker 1: Director for Defense Strategy at the National Security Council, who
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  Speaker 1: served under President George W. Bush and was an advisor
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  Speaker 1: to the McCain Palin campaign. Corey, thanks very much for
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  Speaker 1: being with us. You know, you've written a new book
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  Speaker 1: called Warriors and Citizens, An Analysis of public added who.
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  Speaker 1: It's about defense issues. What is the public attitude now
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  Speaker 1: about Russia and Turkey and why should we be paying attention?
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  Speaker 1: Attitudes are pretty negative in the United States, both about
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  Speaker 1: Russia and about the Ardawan government Turkey, and they're negative
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  Speaker 1: for good reasons. What I think we should be concerned
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  Speaker 1: about in the Putin aird Wan summit these last couple
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  Speaker 1: of days is the deal that they made for the
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  Speaker 1: South Stream pipeline. I think both of those two governments
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  Speaker 1: see a strong interest in showing Europe and the United
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  Speaker 1: States that they can be troubled for us if we
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  Speaker 1: want to be judgmental about their bad behavior. When you
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  Speaker 1: say being a judgmental, what do you mean any specifics? Well,
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  Speaker 1: for example, the Aardwan government has arrested sixteen thousand people
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  Speaker 1: in the aftermaths as a coup attempt a couple of
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  Speaker 1: weeks ago. They've fired thousands of teachers, thousands of judges,
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  Speaker 1: and the United States, uh WE and the Europeans had
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  Speaker 1: supported democratic governance and opposed the coup. The Turkish government
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  Speaker 1: believes that we have no business making judgments about their
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  Speaker 1: political crackdown in the aftermath of the coup. Now, taking
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  Speaker 1: a look at the economics of the issue, Turkey's exports
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  Speaker 1: to Russia in the first half of this year fell
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  Speaker 1: sixty percent compared to the same period last year. Do
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  Speaker 1: you believe that these talks will change that? No, not really.
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  Speaker 1: I think these are both government These are both economies
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  Speaker 1: that are under strain. Russia because it's basically as a
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  Speaker 1: sole product economy with oil and gas, and Turkey because
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  Speaker 1: the political crackdown domestically in Turkey has had very bad
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  Speaker 1: economic effects. So whereas eight or nine years ago, the
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  Speaker 1: Turkish economy was the envy of the Middle East and
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  Speaker 1: it looked like they were getting a lot of things right,
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  Speaker 1: the choices that the government has made economically and politically
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  Speaker 1: have really ground the economy down. Well. You've mentioned the
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  Speaker 1: turk Stream gas pipeline across the Black Sea, but there's
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  Speaker 1: also the nuclear plant that's being built by Russia in Turkey.
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  Speaker 1: M Yeah, Russia is in the business of building nuclear
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  Speaker 1: power plants, and in my judgment that Turkish government is
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  Speaker 1: making such a big deal about this as a counterbalance
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  Speaker 1: to the Iranian nuclear agreement, that the Turks want to
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  Speaker 1: show that they have the potential to be a nuclear
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  Speaker 1: weapons state as an excursion from nuclear energy if they
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  Speaker 1: don't like the way five or ten years from now
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  Speaker 1: the US Irani nuclear deal plays out. That's a very
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  Speaker 1: significant statement and that affects US politics. I want to
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  Speaker 1: turn your attention now to the US election, because you
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  Speaker 1: are one of many signatories to a letter rejecting the
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  Speaker 1: Republican candidate Donald Trump. Tell us about that. I and
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  Speaker 1: the other fifty or so people who signed the letter
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  Speaker 1: are all people who've worked in senior national security jobs
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  Speaker 1: um close to the president, and all of us feel
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  Speaker 1: very strongly that Donald Trump doesn't, by character, temperament, or
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  Speaker 1: policy position, have what is needed to be a commander
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  Speaker 1: in chief. We feel very strongly that he's an actual
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  Speaker 1: danger to the country. Have you received any reaction and
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  Speaker 1: criticism or response to your assigning Tell us about any
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  Speaker 1: anecdote that you might have. UM, well, I think there
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  Speaker 1: are a lot of people who share our concerns. Those
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  Speaker 1: of us who signed the letter. Some of us, myself included,
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  Speaker 1: are willing to go far enough to say that we
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  Speaker 1: would be willing to vote for Hillary Clinton. Most of
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  Speaker 1: the letter signers are not there, but they we felt
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  Speaker 1: like we really had a responsibility because of our experience
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  Speaker 1: to give our judgment publicly. That has created a pretty
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  Speaker 1: strong backlash from Trump supporters. Corey Lewandowski had a lot
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  Speaker 1: of nasty things to say about me, and seeing any
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  Speaker 1: other day and everybody else's we're seeing the same kind
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  Speaker 1: of feedback from Trump supporters, which leads us to believe
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  Speaker 1: that we were right to speak out because this is
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  Speaker 1: exactly the kind of intemperate, um personal attack that doesn't
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  Speaker 1: address the polishy issues, and that reinforces the concerns we
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  Speaker 1: have about his temperament. Now, in addition to your most
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  Speaker 1: recent book, Warriors and Citizens, your publications include State of Disrepair,
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  Speaker 1: Fixing the Culture and Practices of the State Department. And
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  Speaker 1: previously you were the Director for Defense Strategy and Requirements
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  Speaker 1: on the National Security Council. So I would imagine that
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  Speaker 1: you have experienced and information that would lead you to
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  Speaker 1: bolster these conclusions. Can you share some of them with us? Sure?
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  Speaker 1: I mean, you don't have to be a a superior
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  Speaker 1: economist to understand that Donald Trump's proposal to slab of
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  Speaker 1: pariff on anything coming from China would be enormously disruptive
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  Speaker 1: and damaging to the supply chains of American companies and
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  Speaker 1: would constrict our own economy. The kinds of things he
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  Speaker 1: says about punishing America's allies, and the coziness he has
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  Speaker 1: towards authoritarian governments, the number of people around him who
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  Speaker 1: are directly connected to Vladiman putin the way he suggests
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  Speaker 1: that the Russians should be hacking Hillary Clinton and the
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  Speaker 1: d n C. These are all damaging statements, even if
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  Speaker 1: Donald Trump isn't elected, and if he were elected, we
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  Speaker 1: believe is that it would we the signers of the latter,
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  Speaker 1: believe that it would actually make it much harder for
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  Speaker 1: America's friends to help us in the world, much easier
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  Speaker 1: for America's adversaries to pick up ground against us, and
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  Speaker 1: virtually impossible for our economy to continue the even the
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  Speaker 1: modeling recovery it has had. That it's so important to
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  Speaker 1: America's well being as a country, into our social cohesion.
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  Speaker 1: I want to bring NATO into the conversation, if you
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  Speaker 1: don't mind, because in addition to holding the Distinguished Chair
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  Speaker 1: of International Security Studies at West Point and served on
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  Speaker 1: the faculties of JOHNS Hopkins School of International Studies, you
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  Speaker 1: also worked on projects creating NATO's Allied Command Transformation. Turkey
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  Speaker 1: is a member of NATO. What do these comments mean
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  Speaker 1: to Turkey? And then maybe perhaps your thoughts on other
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  Speaker 1: NATO allies. Sure, the Turkish American relationship is a difficult
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  Speaker 1: one because you know, ten years ago it looked as though,
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  Speaker 1: uh then Prime Minister Erdolan was going to be a
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  Speaker 1: successful model for an Islamist democrat, somebody who whose faith
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  Speaker 1: was a prominent part both of their personal story, but
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  Speaker 1: also of their political movement who was nonetheless navigating that
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  Speaker 1: space in a way fostering of prosperity and fostering of
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  Speaker 1: liberty in Turkey, and that is no longer the case,
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  Speaker 1: and it hasn't been a case for several years now,
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  Speaker 1: and so it's a tough relationship. But we in the
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  Speaker 1: Turk share a common interest in Turkey being stable, being secure,
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  Speaker 1: and in Turkey continuing to be such a generous host
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  Speaker 1: too refugees from Syria and a stabilizing force in the
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  Speaker 1: Middle East. It's hard work with the Turks to work
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  Speaker 1: on those common but it will be much harder and
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  Speaker 1: it will be much more dangerous for the United States
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  Speaker 1: if we let go of Turkey's hand and cut them loose,
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  Speaker 1: as I think that kind of dark hints about their
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  Speaker 1: nuclear proliferation suggests. We need to help the Turks get
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  Speaker 1: this right. Uh. And that's why it's an important relationship
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  Speaker 1: and why Donald Trump shouldn't be calling our NATO alliance
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  Speaker 1: guarantees into questions. It's even scarier for NATO's members who
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  Speaker 1: are on Russia's borders, Astonias, the other Baltic states, Poland.
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  Speaker 1: These countries made an extraordinarily brave transition away from communism
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  Speaker 1: to free markets, to free societies, and our commitment to them,
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  Speaker 1: help stabilize them and help them make brave choices. Donald
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  Speaker 1: Trump just doesn't seem to recognize that. Thank you very
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  Speaker 1: much for joining us Corey Shake as a research fellow
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  Speaker 1: at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. You can follow
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  Speaker 1: her on Twitter at Corey with A k R CHIC
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  Speaker 1: s C H A k P. Thank you very much,
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  Speaker 1: her new book, Warriors and Citizens. This is taking Stock.
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  Speaker 1: I'm pim Fox, and this is Bloomberg.