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What will decide the Buffalo Bills Houston Texans week 1 show down | DC · Disguised Coverage

0:00
Speaker 1: It's 38 all.
0:01
Speaker 2: Bills can win it here.
0:02
Speaker 1: Wright puts it down. The kick is on the way
0:05
Speaker 1: and it is good. And the Bills have won it.
0:08
Speaker 2: The Bills have won it.
0:11
Speaker 1: The Bills have won it. They win it 41 to 38.
0:15
Speaker 2: Incredible. What a comeback by the Bills. Jacksonville's perfect record
0:21
Speaker 2: on the line right here.
0:28
Speaker 1: Looney, keep it.
0:29
Speaker 2: Left side, touchdown. Kyle Williams, touchdown. Amazing.
1:17
Speaker 1: What's good, folks, family, friends? loved ones, enemies, frenemies, wizards, witches, muggles, mudbloods,
1:24
Speaker 1: people of Middle Earth, to another episode of Disguise Coverage,
1:28
Speaker 1: the only podcast that gives you an equal amount of
1:29
Speaker 1: blueberries in each muffin presented by the best pizza in Buffalo,
1:34
Speaker 1: New York, and that is One Pie Pizza. Find the
1:36
Speaker 1: online menu in the episode show notes, whether here on
1:38
Speaker 1: YouTube or whichever podcasting app or platform you're listening to
1:41
Speaker 1: this show on. I am your host, Anthony Prohaska, find
1:44
Speaker 1: me on Twitter at Pro underscore underscore Ant. That's Pro
1:46
Speaker 1: two underscores A-N-T. Find me on Blue Sky at Pro Ant.
1:50
Speaker 1: No underscores there, just P-R-O-A-N-T. In this edition of Disguise Coverage,
1:55
Speaker 1: the regular season in the NFL is upon us. It
1:59
Speaker 1: is week one. The Buffalo Bills play the Houston Texans
2:03
Speaker 1: in what is arguably slash probably Probably maybe most definitely
2:09
Speaker 1: the game of the week, potential large scale conference ramifications
2:13
Speaker 1: down the road, definite early way to kind of assert
2:17
Speaker 1: yourself and test yourself and prove you belong to Super
2:21
Speaker 1: Bowl hopefuls to conference winning hopefuls to maybe kind of foes.
2:26
Speaker 1: One of them has had the other's number for several years,
2:29
Speaker 1: that being the Texans over the Bills. And to discuss
2:34
Speaker 1: all that, to break all that down, to get into
2:37
Speaker 1: the weeds, to get into the details, to talk football,
2:41
Speaker 1: to break down the X's and O's and anything and
2:43
Speaker 1: everything in between. I am joined by sincerely one of
2:47
Speaker 1: my favorite guests making. I do this every time. I
2:50
Speaker 1: always tell myself to jot down how many times has
2:52
Speaker 1: been on the show. And I say this and I
2:53
Speaker 1: forget and I never do. But making his, you know,
2:56
Speaker 1: continuing his record setting number of appearances, essentially an honorable,
3:01
Speaker 1: if not. I would say probably just like unofficial co-host
3:04
Speaker 1: of this show at some point.
3:06
Speaker 2: Mr.
3:07
Speaker 1: J.P. Acosta of CBS Sports, all around ball knower, college football,
3:14
Speaker 1: NFL stuff, anime stuff, video game stuff, movie stuff. I
3:19
Speaker 1: love you as a person, as a football person. You're
3:22
Speaker 1: one of the best. I appreciate you taking the time.
3:24
Speaker 1: Welcome back to the show for the 97,000th time.
3:28
Speaker 2: Thank you for having me. You know, I'm trying to
3:30
Speaker 2: get like you. You're one of the best in the business.
3:33
Speaker 2: I always, whenever people go looking for Bills content, I'm
3:36
Speaker 2: pointing them your direction. It's exciting. This is, like you said,
3:40
Speaker 2: this is the game of the week to me. I
3:43
Speaker 2: know there's a lot of big games. This one not
3:45
Speaker 2: only is going to set the tone for the entire season,
3:47
Speaker 2: but this has huge ramifications for the AFC pecking order.
3:51
Speaker 1: Yes. And that's what's so You know everybody's like, okay,
3:56
Speaker 1: who you are in week one isn't really who you
3:58
Speaker 1: are in November and December, and week one is a
4:00
Speaker 1: lie and all that, but also it does matter, and
4:03
Speaker 1: I feel like both of these teams want to make
4:05
Speaker 1: a statement against the other one. The Texans kind of
4:08
Speaker 1: have some stuff to prove to themselves and everyone. The
4:10
Speaker 1: Bills have some stuff to prove to themselves and everyone,
4:13
Speaker 1: and also to the Texans, and we've got some great
4:17
Speaker 1: matchup stuff to get into, you know, the, the crux
4:19
Speaker 1: of this episode, JP and I will each be giving
4:21
Speaker 1: our top three matchup elements that we think will decide
4:24
Speaker 1: bills versus Texans could be as large scale or as
4:27
Speaker 1: small scale as we want, you know, super detailed niche
4:30
Speaker 1: down stuff or big picture type things. But before we
4:33
Speaker 1: get into that, JP, I had messaged you last week
4:36
Speaker 1: around just some of the conversation that's happening about the
4:39
Speaker 1: bills and in the AFC. And as we head into
4:43
Speaker 1: week one, again, before anybody's like, it's week one, we
4:46
Speaker 1: don't know who anyone, we get it, we get it.
4:48
Speaker 1: But as of right now, where do the Bills stack
4:52
Speaker 1: up for you in the AFC? And what does this
4:56
Speaker 1: game against the Texans mean for them? And honestly, the
4:59
Speaker 1: Texans too, in your eyes, in terms of who they
5:02
Speaker 1: are and what they could potentially be for 2026.
5:04
Speaker 2: So to me, the Bills and the Texans, along with
5:08
Speaker 2: the Jaguars, they all occupy this tier of teams in
5:12
Speaker 2: the AFC where, They do have noticeable flaws, but I
5:17
Speaker 2: think they can still win the entire conference and win
5:20
Speaker 2: the Super Bowl. I think if I were ranking the
5:23
Speaker 2: AFC or tier listing them, I like to do tiers
5:25
Speaker 2: instead of rankings because we get into what's the difference
5:28
Speaker 2: between team number four and team number five. It's the
5:30
Speaker 2: same thing. But I would have the Broncos and the
5:34
Speaker 2: Patriots as the top tier, especially the Broncos because I
5:38
Speaker 2: think the Broncos are– arguably the most well-coached team in
5:42
Speaker 2: the conference, and they did not lose any of that.
5:46
Speaker 2: While also adding Jalen Wall to that offense, I do
5:49
Speaker 2: think they should still be very good. And then I
5:51
Speaker 2: think the Patriots, as odd as their defense is, and
5:55
Speaker 2: that's a discussion for later, as odd as their defense is,
5:58
Speaker 2: I think their offense is just going to be much better.
6:00
Speaker 2: But I do think the tier of Bills, Texans, Jaguars
6:04
Speaker 2: kind of occupy an area where I have more faith
6:07
Speaker 2: in them than a team like the Ravens or the
6:10
Speaker 2: Chargers or even the Bengals. But I feel like they
6:13
Speaker 2: have major question marks that make me want to go like, hmm,
6:17
Speaker 2: I don't know if I want to put all my
6:18
Speaker 2: stock into these teams, but I do think if we
6:22
Speaker 2: get to the end of the season and any of
6:24
Speaker 2: those teams are hoisting Lombardi, I'll be like, yeah, that
6:26
Speaker 2: makes sense. So this game matters so much because this
6:30
Speaker 2: is how you differentiate yourself between these teams in the
6:33
Speaker 2: same tier. And it's going to ultimately set the tone
6:36
Speaker 2: for a season where both those teams, both the Texans
6:40
Speaker 2: and the Bills, are coming in with Super Bowl aspirations.
6:42
Speaker 2: And this is an important first step.
6:45
Speaker 1: I feel like the Broncos are weirdly– kind of slept
6:48
Speaker 1: on a little bit for whatever reason and i'm just
6:51
Speaker 1: like well they they return like their entire defense again
6:54
Speaker 1: which has been like one of the best defenses football
6:56
Speaker 1: they lost john franklin myers but they're still easy like
7:00
Speaker 1: for me like a top five unit you have one
7:02
Speaker 1: of the best defensive players in all of football and
7:04
Speaker 1: pats are tan at a premium position and then offensively
7:08
Speaker 1: you kind of return the same group and you add
7:13
Speaker 1: jaylen waddle who i mean him and him and courtland
7:18
Speaker 1: sutton i think are a really fun one two group
7:20
Speaker 1: and then the rest of that wide receiver core now
7:22
Speaker 1: it's like mims and franklin are depth guys you got
7:24
Speaker 1: pat bryant i like the addition of jonah coleman to
7:27
Speaker 1: the running back room you've got a good offensive line
7:30
Speaker 1: you've got sean payton at the helm i'm interested to
7:32
Speaker 1: see what him kind of handed the keys over to
7:35
Speaker 1: davis webb looks like and then the defensive side vance
7:38
Speaker 1: joseph is back again to continue like running things i
7:41
Speaker 1: feel like there's been so much conversation like oh the
7:43
Speaker 1: patriots and then the the bills and all this Josh
7:46
Speaker 1: Allen stuff that seems to be running wild nationally and locally.
7:50
Speaker 1: I'm so over it at this point. And then you've
7:51
Speaker 1: got like, it's just, it's just crazy. Cause I feel
7:55
Speaker 1: like there's, there's no in the, there's no meat in
7:57
Speaker 1: the middle now for like Josh Allen. And I, the
8:01
Speaker 1: bills I think are a different conversation now than Josh Allen,
8:03
Speaker 1: but there's like no meat in the middle for, for
8:05
Speaker 1: Josh Allen. It's either like bills fans think he's the
8:08
Speaker 1: greatest football player who ever existed. A bunch of national
8:11
Speaker 1: people think that, It's weird that he's getting all this
8:14
Speaker 1: shine because he hasn't quote unquote won anything. And there's
8:17
Speaker 1: like nothing in the and I'm just like so tired
8:20
Speaker 1: of like the discourse and the conversation and connected to
8:23
Speaker 1: Allen is the larger AFC picture, which I think is.
8:26
Speaker 1: I feel like this season as a whole mirrors the
8:33
Speaker 1: end of the season last year for the AFC, where,
8:35
Speaker 1: like you said and alluded to. there's like six or
8:38
Speaker 1: seven teams that I really, you really could like pick
8:40
Speaker 1: out of a hat and be like, Oh, that's the
8:42
Speaker 1: team that went to the Superbowl. I'd be like, okay,
8:44
Speaker 1: I could buy it. Like there's, I don't think there's
8:46
Speaker 1: a lot of separation between a lot of teams. Like
8:49
Speaker 1: I even look at the division races. Like I think
8:51
Speaker 1: the North is going to be a fight again. Maybe
8:54
Speaker 1: not necessarily. If I say this every year, if Baltimore
8:57
Speaker 1: is healthy, like they're always kind of like my pick,
8:59
Speaker 1: but then they always get injured and they find a
9:01
Speaker 1: way to have the most ugliest losses ever. Like they
9:03
Speaker 1: are just cursed for the past several years. But like them,
9:06
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh and Cincinnati is a dogfight. The West is going
9:10
Speaker 1: to be really interesting because is it finally the Chargers
9:12
Speaker 1: year or are the Chargers going to charge her again,
9:15
Speaker 1: which they kind of already have because Rashawn Slater got
9:17
Speaker 1: hurt and they got injuries on the line, but it's like, no,
9:19
Speaker 1: they should still be fine. But what did the Chargers do?
9:22
Speaker 1: Are the Chiefs really dead or are they going to
9:24
Speaker 1: Michael Myers this whole thing because nobody cut off their
9:26
Speaker 1: head and they got kicked out of a window and
9:28
Speaker 1: shot out of a window, but they're fine. And then
9:32
Speaker 1: what do you get in the AFC East between... the
9:35
Speaker 1: Patriots and the bills and the Broncos are in the
9:39
Speaker 1: AFC West. So there's like, there's like a three team
9:41
Speaker 1: AFC West kind of fight. There's a three team AFC
9:43
Speaker 1: North kind of fight. There's a two team race in
9:45
Speaker 1: the AFC East. There's a two team race in the
9:48
Speaker 1: AFC South, unless maybe Daniel Jones really is okay. And like,
9:52
Speaker 1: can the Colts replicate what they did last year? But
9:54
Speaker 1: there's so much openness, which again is what makes the,
10:00
Speaker 1: this game so meaningful, even though it's week one, because
10:04
Speaker 1: this could be one where, you know, if the Texans
10:06
Speaker 1: win the South and the bills win the East, or
10:09
Speaker 1: if they're both fighting for wild card spots, now all
10:12
Speaker 1: of a sudden that head to head matters tremendously. And
10:15
Speaker 1: that's on top of just the whole, you know, vibes
10:18
Speaker 1: aspect of like, hey, we're both contenders. Let's see who
10:21
Speaker 1: owns who and let's see who does what. I'm just
10:24
Speaker 1: so incredibly excited for this game because of the potential
10:26
Speaker 1: ramifications and like the bigger conversation. I'm also terrified of
10:30
Speaker 1: what it is for the bigger conversation because I know
10:32
Speaker 1: the overreactions that are going to happen.
10:34
Speaker 2: Well, I think the overreactions happen. You know this. It's
10:36
Speaker 2: because we have deemed quarterback the most important position in
10:41
Speaker 2: the sport. So if you win, it's always a quarterback's win.
10:45
Speaker 2: It's always a quarterback. If you lose, it's always the
10:48
Speaker 2: quarterback's fault. And sometimes there's a meeting in the middle.
10:51
Speaker 2: And I think especially for where the NFL is right now.
10:54
Speaker 2: And again, no... No disrespect to either of these two quarterbacks,
10:58
Speaker 2: but Sam Darnold and Jalen Hurts just won a Super Bowl.
11:03
Speaker 2: We have progressed beyond the need for QB-only discussions. When
11:08
Speaker 2: two of the best teams in the NFL just went
11:11
Speaker 2: and won the Super Bowl, it wasn't just about the quarterback.
11:14
Speaker 2: I mean, if you want to dissect how Seattle got
11:18
Speaker 2: to the Super Bowl and became Super Bowl champions... It
11:20
Speaker 2: was because of a very strong run game and their
11:23
Speaker 2: ability to disguise a lot of their explosive passing looks
11:27
Speaker 2: with their run game. And then the best, one of
11:29
Speaker 2: the best defenses in football, making the game easy. So
11:32
Speaker 2: I think, especially now, I'm not going to sit here
11:35
Speaker 2: and say quarterbacks don't matter. Although if you follow me
11:37
Speaker 2: on social media, that is a running bit of mine
11:39
Speaker 2: is quarterbacks do not matter. But I do think that
11:43
Speaker 2: the discussion about quarterbacks has become so toxic to the
11:48
Speaker 2: point where, You can't win a game and you can't
11:52
Speaker 2: lose a game without it being all a referendum on
11:54
Speaker 2: how good this quarterback is when sometimes it doesn't have
11:58
Speaker 2: anything to do with them.
12:00
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's really just gotten. I feel like it's part
12:04
Speaker 1: of the larger like hot take culture and debate culture
12:07
Speaker 1: where you can't say anything. I always give it back
12:10
Speaker 1: to him. Oh, have you ever seen the movie with
12:13
Speaker 1: Aaron Eckhart? It's called Thank You for Smoking. And he plays,
12:17
Speaker 1: he plays a smoking lobbyist and he's talking to his
12:19
Speaker 1: son and his like son asked him a question of
12:21
Speaker 1: something of like, you know, how do you like win
12:23
Speaker 1: a debate? And Aaron Eckhart's character is like, okay, like
12:27
Speaker 1: let's pretend we're on like a show and you think
12:29
Speaker 1: vanilla ice cream is the best. And I think like
12:31
Speaker 1: chocolate is the best. And the kid's like, oh, okay.
12:34
Speaker 1: Like I like vanilla ice cream, you know, it's the best.
12:38
Speaker 1: And he's like, prove to me that chocolate like is better.
12:41
Speaker 1: And Aaron Eckhart doesn't do that. He just gives this
12:44
Speaker 1: like generic answer of like, You know, I think we
12:46
Speaker 1: should live in a world where we can have chocolate
12:48
Speaker 1: and vanilla ice cream and like this and that. And
12:50
Speaker 1: the kid's like, you didn't prove to me that chocolate's
12:53
Speaker 1: better than vanilla. He's like, no, but I just proved
12:56
Speaker 1: that you're wrong. And I think we've gotten to so
12:59
Speaker 1: much of like some of that where everyone is just
13:02
Speaker 1: always trying to prove someone wrong or like take some, oh, well,
13:07
Speaker 1: like flip it on its head too of like the
13:09
Speaker 1: opposite of what his son says in that movie where
13:11
Speaker 1: it's like, oh, you know, I think Josh Allen's a
13:12
Speaker 1: good quarterback. So you think Patrick Mahomes sucks? It's like,
13:16
Speaker 1: I didn't say any of that. I didn't say any
13:18
Speaker 1: of those things. And everything is just, we're always trying
13:20
Speaker 1: to prove someone wrong. Everything's always trying to be spun.
13:23
Speaker 1: We're trying to pull every last, like, I don't know,
13:27
Speaker 1: confrontational aspect out of conversations. And quarterbacks are the epitome
13:31
Speaker 1: of that. Like, you cannot say, I've never done quarterback
13:35
Speaker 1: rankings because it's so toxic and I hate it. The
13:38
Speaker 1: only thing, and I think I've mentioned this to you before,
13:39
Speaker 1: the only thing I've ever done, like in 20, I
13:41
Speaker 1: think like 2022 or 2021, I did like a list
13:47
Speaker 1: of quarterbacks and who they would be in Dragon Ball Z.
13:54
Speaker 1: And I did Josh Allen as Cell. And so many
13:57
Speaker 1: people came at me and Bill's fans were like, oh,
14:00
Speaker 1: how dare you? Like Josh Allen's clearly Goku. I'm like,
14:02
Speaker 1: first of all, at that time, no, he's not Goku.
14:05
Speaker 1: Second of all, Cell is literally a combination of all
14:08
Speaker 1: the best fighters and is absolutely sick. Like that's not disrespectful,
14:13
Speaker 1: but because I didn't pick Josh Allen as like, the
14:16
Speaker 1: best thing Bill's fans were unhappy and everybody was unhappy
14:20
Speaker 1: because everybody thought that their quarterback should be Goku. And
14:22
Speaker 1: so everybody was mad. And I was like, I will
14:25
Speaker 1: never again wade into the quarterback discussion waters. I will
14:29
Speaker 1: never rank them and get into it. And this off
14:32
Speaker 1: season is just push that further. And it's funny for
14:35
Speaker 1: me too, because that discussion is kind of in the,
14:39
Speaker 1: it's still in the forefront, but the backdrop is defense, defense,
14:44
Speaker 1: matters a lot again and like having a great defense
14:47
Speaker 1: is now a more viable option to just winning the
14:50
Speaker 1: super bowl you can have a great defense and like
14:53
Speaker 1: a middling quarterback or a middling offense and a great
14:56
Speaker 1: round game ground game like all you need is like
14:58
Speaker 1: a really good defense and be somewhat explosive on offense
15:02
Speaker 1: and things can be okay and that's where like the
15:05
Speaker 1: texans come into this picture because it's like well their
15:07
Speaker 1: offense isn't good enough it's like yeah but if their
15:09
Speaker 1: offense can just be middling they can ride with that
15:13
Speaker 1: defense and go to a super bowl. And I think
15:15
Speaker 1: the bills are the opposite of that, where it's like,
15:18
Speaker 1: if their defense can just be middling, they can ride
15:22
Speaker 1: it with what should be again, a top tier offense
15:26
Speaker 1: with a, you know, even last year, well, you know,
15:28
Speaker 1: they didn't have receivers and Duncan Cade was hurt and
15:30
Speaker 1: everything was a struggle. And it's like, they were like
15:32
Speaker 1: top four in like everything like DVO way, like EPA metrics,
15:36
Speaker 1: success rate, all that. It's so funny how these two
15:38
Speaker 1: teams are like the antithesis kind of one another, where
15:41
Speaker 1: their questions are and what they're going to have to prove.
15:44
Speaker 1: And that's what makes this game so fun to break down,
15:48
Speaker 1: to talk about. JP, let's get into it. Let's get
15:50
Speaker 1: into the matchups. I'll break it down for folks. In
15:54
Speaker 1: case you're new or don't know what we're each going
15:56
Speaker 1: to do, JP and I are each going to give
15:58
Speaker 1: our top three things that will decide Bills versus Texans
16:01
Speaker 1: in week one. I don't know his answers. He does
16:03
Speaker 1: not know mine. It could be super niche down and detailed.
16:06
Speaker 1: It could be super large scale, big picture, granular, anything
16:10
Speaker 1: and everything is an option. JP, you are the guest.
16:15
Speaker 1: You may go first. The floor is yours. What is,
16:17
Speaker 1: and feel free to let everyone know, like if this is,
16:19
Speaker 1: if all these things are equal, if you rank them,
16:21
Speaker 1: you know, three, two, one, and where this one ranks
16:24
Speaker 1: for you, but the floor is yours. Give your, uh,
16:26
Speaker 1: your first answer.
16:27
Speaker 2: So my first one is Joe Brady versus the 11
16:31
Speaker 2: velociraptors with machine guns that are the Houston Texans defense.
16:36
Speaker 2: And the way I like to describe the Texans defense
16:40
Speaker 2: is that they are the antithesis of what a modern
16:42
Speaker 2: defense should be. And it doesn't matter. Like, they don't
16:47
Speaker 2: do any post-snap rotation. They're not stemming their fronts. The
16:50
Speaker 2: defenses for Mike McDonald and D'Amico Ryans for the Seahawks
16:54
Speaker 2: and Texans look completely different, and it doesn't matter. If
16:59
Speaker 2: you want to look at what the defensive meta is,
17:01
Speaker 2: it's all about simulated pressures, stemming your fronts, getting into
17:05
Speaker 2: bear looks with your linebackers walk down to the line
17:07
Speaker 2: of scrimmage, doing all this top-down rotations. The Texans don't
17:12
Speaker 2: do that. Like they don't at all. They're going to
17:14
Speaker 2: line up in exactly what they're going to tell you.
17:17
Speaker 2: And like, it's sort of like the opposite of that
17:19
Speaker 2: Roddy Piper quote, where it's like, every time you think
17:21
Speaker 2: you get the answers, I changed the questions. The Texans are,
17:26
Speaker 2: we're going to keep the questions the exact same, but
17:28
Speaker 2: you got like one second to figure it out. You,
17:31
Speaker 2: you don't have a lot of time to figure out
17:33
Speaker 2: what the answer is going to be because we got
17:35
Speaker 2: Will Anderson and the meal Hunter on the edge and
17:37
Speaker 2: then Kamari Lasseter and Derek Stingley at corner and And
17:40
Speaker 2: then Jalen Petrie in the nickel. It's just you go
17:44
Speaker 2: down the list. And I call them force multipliers. Guys
17:47
Speaker 2: who can tilt the scales. They change the numbers in
17:51
Speaker 2: favor of their team. The Texans have like seven of
17:54
Speaker 2: those guys on defense. There's really not a lot of
17:59
Speaker 2: stuff you can do. And the reason I say Joe
18:02
Speaker 2: Brady is because I think Brady has to find a
18:06
Speaker 2: way to maximize what I think is a I think
18:10
Speaker 2: the passing game itself has potential, but I do think
18:14
Speaker 2: they're still very limited in what they can access, especially
18:18
Speaker 2: because a team like the Texans were going to punch
18:21
Speaker 2: you in the mouth. And I think the biggest reason
18:24
Speaker 2: is because like another hilarious Texans defense stat, they blitz
18:30
Speaker 2: near the bottom of the world. They have one of
18:33
Speaker 2: the lowest blitz rates in the NFL. They are still
18:35
Speaker 2: a top five team in pressure rate without blitzing. I
18:39
Speaker 2: believe they were at 45. According to True Media, they
18:44
Speaker 2: were second in the NFL in pressure rate at 42.5%.
18:49
Speaker 2: When they blitzed, which again happened 22% of the time,
18:53
Speaker 2: they don't blitz a lot. They led the NFL in
18:56
Speaker 2: pressure rate at 56.9%. So even when they do decide like, okay,
19:01
Speaker 2: you know what? We're going to blitz. We bring them
19:04
Speaker 2: home anyway. They're going to win either way. And it's
19:06
Speaker 2: because What the Texans want to do is try and
19:10
Speaker 2: get you to 5-0 your protection. They want you to
19:13
Speaker 2: try and isolate every single one of your linemen. This
19:16
Speaker 2: could really be a breakout session on Deion Dawkins and
19:19
Speaker 2: Spencer Brown against Will Anderson Jr. and Daniil Hunter. That
19:23
Speaker 2: is what's going to decide this game. Whoever slows down
19:26
Speaker 2: the other is probably going to win. Because last game,
19:30
Speaker 2: last time these two teams played, Josh Allen was sacked
19:32
Speaker 2: seven times. I think that was a game Spencer Brown
19:34
Speaker 2: wasn't really healthy.
19:36
Speaker 1: Yeah, he had one arm, and they left him on
19:38
Speaker 1: an island against Anderson and Hunter.
19:41
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, when you get left on an island
19:43
Speaker 2: with one arm against Daniil Hunter and Will Anderson Jr.,
19:46
Speaker 2: who also are, like, two of the top ten defensive–
19:52
Speaker 2: You're going to give up seven sacks. So if Brown
19:55
Speaker 2: and Dawkins have a great game, I do think there's
19:58
Speaker 2: a chance and there's a way for this Bills team
20:00
Speaker 2: to attack the Texans. I think if you're trying to
20:03
Speaker 2: find somewhere to attack this team, it's got to be
20:06
Speaker 2: through the linebackers and it's got to be through the
20:08
Speaker 2: passing game. We're just going to go into a next
20:14
Speaker 2: matchup that I do have. But I really want to
20:16
Speaker 2: use this to sort of– Joe Brady has to find
20:20
Speaker 2: ways– to not turn this into a 45, Josh Allen
20:27
Speaker 2: drops back 45, 50 times a game during this game.
20:31
Speaker 2: You have to not turn this into a Josh Allen
20:34
Speaker 2: drop back game because I do think the Texans are
20:37
Speaker 2: going to win that.
20:39
Speaker 1: First off, I love your Velociraptors with machine guns reference
20:42
Speaker 1: because I've always said Velociraptors. I've never taken it to
20:45
Speaker 1: that next degree, and I've always in my head been like,
20:47
Speaker 1: I don't know what's crazier than a Velociraptor, and it's like,
20:49
Speaker 1: give them machine guns. That's just phenomenal. Yeah, their defense
20:53
Speaker 1: is just filled with math changers, and I have two
21:01
Speaker 1: points that kind of tie into that, and I don't know...
21:07
Speaker 1: Which one? All right, cool. So I'm going to, I'm
21:09
Speaker 1: going to use yours to stem into one of mine.
21:12
Speaker 1: I never know how to rank them. So I'm going
21:13
Speaker 1: to treat them all as equal. Anyway, one of my,
21:16
Speaker 1: and this fits in perfectly with your first point. One
21:20
Speaker 1: of mine was the one-on-ones at premium positions. And I
21:23
Speaker 1: have three buckets for it. It's the bills tackles versus
21:26
Speaker 1: the Texans edges. It's the bills receivers versus the Texans corners.
21:31
Speaker 1: And then it's Nico Collins versus the bills corners. But yeah,
21:34
Speaker 1: I want to start with the tackles versus Houston's edges. Yeah,
21:38
Speaker 1: just absolutely maniacal. And I love how you mentioned, you know,
21:43
Speaker 1: kind of where you pick at them, like staying out
21:46
Speaker 1: of situations. I really do think the Bills have to
21:49
Speaker 1: stay out of known passing situations and down in distances
21:53
Speaker 1: in this game. Last year, just on third down, so
21:58
Speaker 1: on third down versus the Texans last year, Josh Allen metrics, well,
22:03
Speaker 1: Bills passing metrics, because they're the same thing. Again, I'm
22:06
Speaker 1: third down versus the Texans last year. The Texans had
22:10
Speaker 1: a 50% pressure rate. They had a 25% sack rate. Yep.
22:19
Speaker 1: The Bills had a negative 0.58 EPA per pass, and
22:23
Speaker 1: the Texans averaged 2.4 seconds time to pressure.
22:29
Speaker 2: They.
22:29
Speaker 1: We're all over the Bills last year. The Bills got
22:32
Speaker 1: to stay out of known passing situations and down in distances.
22:35
Speaker 1: I think you got to lean into all the stereotypical
22:37
Speaker 1: stuff that everybody and their mother wants to talk about
22:39
Speaker 1: now if they watch like one matchup show. Under center
22:42
Speaker 1: play action, chip help. We got to limit these true
22:45
Speaker 1: one-on-one pass sets starting with up front because, you know,
22:50
Speaker 1: and I loved your point too. the Seahawks are in
22:53
Speaker 1: this meta of like, oh, you know, like what's McDonald
22:56
Speaker 1: cooking up and what's this pressure package and what are
22:59
Speaker 1: they doing on the back end? And the Texans are like, nah, man,
23:02
Speaker 1: we're going to play like cover three and cover one
23:04
Speaker 1: in quarters and we're just going to rush four. And
23:06
Speaker 1: then it's like, well, how do you defend the run?
23:08
Speaker 1: And it's like with four or like a light box.
23:10
Speaker 1: And it's like, well, what do you do on the
23:11
Speaker 1: back end? It's just like, whatever you think we're going
23:14
Speaker 1: to do, like it's just kind of regular. Like they don't,
23:17
Speaker 1: And not to say that, and they do have some
23:19
Speaker 1: change-ups where it's like, ooh, watch them run this slant
23:22
Speaker 1: or this stunt, and they'll bring this five-man pressure and
23:24
Speaker 1: create a one-on-one, but so much of it is just like,
23:28
Speaker 1: we have studs, you maybe don't, or your studs aren't
23:32
Speaker 1: as good as ours, and our studs also want to
23:36
Speaker 1: rip your throat out and dance in your blood across
23:39
Speaker 1: the board. That's just how they are. And there's only
23:43
Speaker 1: so much you can do to combat that. And because
23:47
Speaker 1: they are, you know, at the, the, the edge spot,
23:50
Speaker 1: but then tying it into like my second point, which
23:52
Speaker 1: also goes into your bigger thing, like the Texans corners,
23:56
Speaker 1: what they have on the edge and what they have
23:58
Speaker 1: at corner allows them to play just such a unique
24:01
Speaker 1: brand of football. Like you have the second best corner
24:04
Speaker 1: in all of football and Derek Stingley, and he's only
24:06
Speaker 1: second because Pat Sertan is unreal. You have, in my estimation,
24:10
Speaker 1: and my favorite player in football, Kamari Lassiter, who I
24:13
Speaker 1: think he's the best CB2 in football. I think he's
24:17
Speaker 1: a borderline low tier one. He's going to get paid
24:20
Speaker 1: in free agency. And it's fun because him and Bill's corner,
24:23
Speaker 1: Christian Benford, for me, are the two best run defending corners.
24:26
Speaker 1: Outside corners, I should say. Well, now Devin Witherspoon might
24:30
Speaker 1: be more outside. So he's in that mix too. I'm
24:31
Speaker 1: going to call them all 1A, 1B, 1C. But Lassiter
24:35
Speaker 1: is just six. So you've got this awesome corner tandem
24:37
Speaker 1: on the outside. And then that's mirrored in the edge
24:41
Speaker 1: group with Anderson and Hunter. And then they added Jadavion
24:45
Speaker 1: Clowney who has like had like a sneaky productive year
24:49
Speaker 1: for Dallas last year. Like you've got three guys who
24:52
Speaker 1: essentially were all, and I'm going to talk and use
24:55
Speaker 1: this time to fill space while I pull up this
24:56
Speaker 1: tweet from yesterday. You've got three guys who were all
25:00
Speaker 1: like ridiculously productive and based on last year's metrics. So,
25:05
Speaker 1: amongst 195 qualifying rushers across all positions for last year,
25:11
Speaker 1: 195 qualifying players, here's Will Anderson, Daniil Hunter, and Jadeveon Clowney.
25:15
Speaker 1: Will Anderson, 5th in sacks.
25:17
Speaker 2: Hunter, 2nd.
25:19
Speaker 1: Clowney, tied for 28th. Anderson, 2nd in win rate. Hunter,
25:23
Speaker 1: 5th in win rate. Clowney, 19th in win rate. Anderson,
25:27
Speaker 1: 1st in pressure rate. Hunter, 15th in pressure rate. Clowney,
25:31
Speaker 1: 7th in pressure rate. Anderson, First in pass rush productivity, Hunter,
25:35
Speaker 1: eighth in pass rush productivity, Clowney, sixth. You are just,
25:41
Speaker 1: and what do you do against that rotation? And then
25:44
Speaker 1: if you get into those known passing down and distances,
25:47
Speaker 1: can you beat Stingley and Lassiter? That's super hard. Can
25:50
Speaker 1: you protect against Anderson and Hunter and Clowney? And also
25:55
Speaker 1: like Sheldon Rankins and even some of the rotational guys
25:58
Speaker 1: like Logan Hall can do some stuff for you. Like
26:00
Speaker 1: he's a depth guy. See what Cade McDonald can be.
26:03
Speaker 1: I think Tommy Togiai is the most like underrated player
26:06
Speaker 1: in all of football. Dude is an absolute stud on
26:09
Speaker 1: the interior. Like eats doubles, beats the hell out of people.
26:12
Speaker 1: Like such a fun player. I feel like I'm one
26:15
Speaker 1: of the few people who is creating like Tommy Togiai
26:17
Speaker 1: cutups in the offseason. Like two and three minute long
26:20
Speaker 1: videos of Tommy Togiai just like being a menace on
26:24
Speaker 1: the interior. And they, it's funny, their defense too. They
26:28
Speaker 1: do the stuff that Sean McDermott wanted to be, which
26:33
Speaker 1: is we're going to win by it. We're going to
26:35
Speaker 1: rush the quarterback only with four and we're going to
26:37
Speaker 1: get pressure and we're going to get home and we're
26:39
Speaker 1: going to defend the run with light boxes. Like they
26:42
Speaker 1: don't have to allocate resources to rush the QB. They
26:46
Speaker 1: don't have to allocate resources to stop the run. They
26:50
Speaker 1: always have numbers in coverage. And then they've got studs
26:52
Speaker 1: at these premium positions that, And so just from there, like,
26:57
Speaker 1: can your tackles hold up against their edges? How much
26:59
Speaker 1: chip help do you have to get? Are you getting
27:01
Speaker 1: less guys out into the route distribution, furthering that numbers
27:04
Speaker 1: advantage further for the Texans? And then you've added DJ Moore.
27:10
Speaker 1: Dalton Kincaid is essentially a receiver. How do you beat
27:15
Speaker 1: their corners on the outside? Like what does Palmer give you?
27:17
Speaker 1: What does Keon Coleman give you? What is Shakir giving you?
27:19
Speaker 1: Although Shakir is more slot. It's really like, what does
27:22
Speaker 1: more do? Is he getting a race? The Texans are
27:25
Speaker 1: going to play man coverage. If you're running three by
27:27
Speaker 1: ones on the backside of, you know, their cover three
27:30
Speaker 1: or their quarters, they're just locking it. So it's essentially
27:32
Speaker 1: man coverage. Like those premium position battles, the bills tackles
27:37
Speaker 1: versus the Texans edges and the bills receivers versus the
27:40
Speaker 1: Texans corners. I think it ties into your point, and again,
27:44
Speaker 1: these are all equal for me essentially, but I wanted
27:46
Speaker 1: to lead off with it because I felt like it
27:47
Speaker 1: funneled into that so much because so much of that's
27:49
Speaker 1: going to come back to Joe Brady to being like,
27:52
Speaker 1: how do you beat these guys? How do you also
27:54
Speaker 1: learn from what you did last year and not leave
27:56
Speaker 1: your guys on islands? Can you win some of those one-on-ones?
28:00
Speaker 1: What can you scheme up to win the X's and
28:02
Speaker 1: O's battle? Because this is no disrespect to the Bills,
28:06
Speaker 1: you're not going to win the Jimmy's and Joe's battle
28:08
Speaker 1: because the Texans are going to win that against almost
28:10
Speaker 1: every team.
28:11
Speaker 2: And I think even when we were talking about Texas defense,
28:14
Speaker 2: I think we also left out Jalen Petrie, who plays
28:17
Speaker 2: a very important role in this game and in that defense.
28:20
Speaker 2: They can play light boxes because they have a nickel
28:22
Speaker 2: that plays like a linebacker.
28:24
Speaker 1: They change the math. You can stay, especially against a
28:27
Speaker 1: team like the Bills, where if you're 12 personnel and
28:31
Speaker 1: one of your tight ends is Kincaid, Texans don't have
28:34
Speaker 1: to do anything. They just stay with Petrie. And like, oh,
28:37
Speaker 1: you're going to go with a bigger body to 11 personnel? Petrie.
28:39
Speaker 1: You're going to go 12?
28:40
Speaker 2: Petrie.
28:40
Speaker 1: Petrie. Maybe even leave him in there at 13 and
28:43
Speaker 1: just send him as like a heat-seeking missile to blow
28:45
Speaker 1: up somebody. Like, yeah, he allows you to access more
28:48
Speaker 1: of the menu without having to turn the page.
28:50
Speaker 2: And because Petrae is such a good run defender and
28:55
Speaker 2: also is qualifying, like he is a solid pack guy
29:00
Speaker 2: in coverage. I think you allow Petrae to, even though
29:04
Speaker 2: he's like 5'10, maybe 5'11, like you can let him
29:07
Speaker 2: live in a world against Kincaid in the passing game.
29:10
Speaker 1: He's going to beat him up.
29:12
Speaker 2: He's going to beat him up at the line of scrimmage,
29:13
Speaker 2: and he's going to try and negate any chance of
29:16
Speaker 2: allowing them to breathe. So I think that's where the
29:19
Speaker 2: biggest thing comes in for this Texans game against the
29:23
Speaker 2: Bills and for the Bills is how do you access
29:26
Speaker 2: some of the signature Joe Brady stuff while getting them
29:29
Speaker 2: away from press coverage? Because if they're in a game
29:31
Speaker 2: where the Texans are going to line up and beat
29:34
Speaker 2: them up, at a line of scrimmage, they're not going
29:37
Speaker 2: to be able to do anything because again, as much
29:40
Speaker 2: as I, I make jokes about it all the time,
29:42
Speaker 2: Joe Brady's going to run mesh. He's going to run
29:44
Speaker 2: mesh return. That is the go-to play. If it's third down,
29:48
Speaker 2: best believe they are running mesh. The problem with the
29:52
Speaker 2: Texans is that they don't care. Like they're just going
29:56
Speaker 2: to stand at the line of scrimmage and you're not
29:58
Speaker 2: going to be able to get into your route.
29:59
Speaker 1: And last year was the game where all the meme, the,
30:03
Speaker 1: the mesh memes resulted because the Texans were literally all
30:06
Speaker 1: over it. They were passing it off every single locket.
30:09
Speaker 2: Yep.
30:09
Speaker 1: Including that fourth down stop at the end, they ran
30:12
Speaker 1: mesh and the Texans were like, Oh, here comes mesh again.
30:14
Speaker 1: We know what's happening. We'll pass it off.
30:16
Speaker 2: Exactly. And so I think if we look back at
30:19
Speaker 2: that game, which is the only frame rushers really have,
30:22
Speaker 2: but on third down, Against the Bills, the Texans played
30:26
Speaker 2: man coverage 62.5% of the time. That is their second
30:31
Speaker 2: highest metric that last season. The other time was week
30:35
Speaker 2: 10 against the Jaguars. I think that was the first
30:38
Speaker 2: game that the Jaguars had Jacoby Myers and Brian Thomas Jr.
30:41
Speaker 2: was not in the game. Okay. So, 62.5% of the time,
30:45
Speaker 2: they're playing man coverage against the Bills.
30:48
Speaker 1: That's so disrespectful. That's so disrespectful.
30:51
Speaker 2: On third down. Against man coverage, the Bills had a
30:56
Speaker 2: negative 1.48 EPA per dropback.
31:00
Speaker 1: 1.48?
31:01
Speaker 2: Negative 1.48 EPA per dropback.
31:02
Speaker 1: For those who don't know, that means essentially every dropback,
31:06
Speaker 1: they're literally like losing an expected point and a half.
31:10
Speaker 2: Because for context, they had a 33% sack rate on
31:14
Speaker 2: third down against man coverage. And again, hopefully that is
31:18
Speaker 2: tied to Spencer Brown actually being healthy for this game.
31:23
Speaker 2: But again, you trust your highly paid players. This is
31:26
Speaker 2: why you pay both those guys. But again, it's about
31:30
Speaker 2: your Jimmy's and Joe's. And if you want to try
31:32
Speaker 2: and play the Jimmy's and Joe's game against this defense,
31:35
Speaker 2: I highly advise against it because their Jimmy's and Joe's
31:39
Speaker 2: play at a different speed. Even Kalen Bullock, who is
31:42
Speaker 2: another force multiplier because you cannot put the ball in
31:46
Speaker 2: his area. He's going to go get it. He's going
31:48
Speaker 2: to go find the ball. That is their rangy sort of,
31:51
Speaker 2: I think he's a little volatile. But now that you
31:54
Speaker 2: have Reed Blankenship, who is another aspect of this defense
31:57
Speaker 2: where like they have, he's kind of, I think one
32:01
Speaker 2: of my coworkers, Brian McFadden, he calls him a traffic
32:03
Speaker 2: cop where he's like, he's going to make sure everything
32:06
Speaker 2: gets passed off. He's going to make sure everything's a
32:08
Speaker 2: connected issue. And Kalen Bullis is just going to go, okay,
32:13
Speaker 2: I can just play center field the entire game. Sure.
32:15
Speaker 2: And he's going to go and roam everywhere. So I
32:18
Speaker 2: think for this game, if they're going to be such a,
32:23
Speaker 2: if you're going to try and win on these crossing routes,
32:25
Speaker 2: I think another major part of this is beating their
32:28
Speaker 2: press coverage. You have to be able to win in press.
32:31
Speaker 2: This is why you go out and get DJ Moore.
32:33
Speaker 2: Like this is the game where if you want to
32:36
Speaker 2: have success against this team, you need to have somebody
32:39
Speaker 2: who can win in one-on-one situations. Someone who's going to
32:42
Speaker 2: go get you a bucket because if DJ Moore can't
32:45
Speaker 2: do it, I don't know who is because I don't
32:48
Speaker 2: think anybody is going to be able to match up
32:50
Speaker 2: to the physicality of the Texans secondaries.
32:54
Speaker 1: Fair point. And last year too, with all the pressure
32:57
Speaker 1: stuff for Allen, it was like, you know, Anderson and
33:00
Speaker 1: Hunter were winning up front. And if they weren't, Allen
33:04
Speaker 1: was trying to scramble and make something happen. And nobody
33:08
Speaker 1: was getting open downfield. I think back to the big,
33:10
Speaker 1: what was the, which there was that one where Anderson
33:13
Speaker 1: gets the sack and Allen loses like 17 yards or something.
33:15
Speaker 1: Cause he's just looking for somebody looking for somebody and
33:18
Speaker 1: there's nobody. And he's trying to run around and do
33:20
Speaker 1: something and he can't, um, it was just such a
33:23
Speaker 1: perfect storm last year. And yeah, you get DJ more
33:26
Speaker 1: to try and get you some buckets on the outside.
33:28
Speaker 1: Like you see, if you can beat somebody over the
33:30
Speaker 1: top or at the very least I'm hoping in this one,
33:34
Speaker 1: give me DJ more just as a guy who can
33:36
Speaker 1: stretch and pull coverage. Give me, If I can get
33:40
Speaker 1: Dalton Kincaid matched up in coverage on Toto or Al Shayer,
33:44
Speaker 1: I'm taking that matchup every day. If I can get
33:46
Speaker 1: Kincaid on Blankenship, I'll take that. I don't love him
33:49
Speaker 1: versus Petrie, but I'll take Kincaid against any one of
33:52
Speaker 1: those guys versus any of the receivers versus Stingley and Lassiter.
33:56
Speaker 1: And then hell, DJ Moore, athletic, can get downfield, make
34:00
Speaker 1: some plays on the ball, maybe draws a flag or
34:03
Speaker 1: two downfield, or maybe he can run straight by Kamari Lassiter.
34:07
Speaker 1: We'll see if you know, which corner matches up on who,
34:10
Speaker 1: but DJ Moore's got to be able to get you
34:12
Speaker 1: some buckets in some way. And it could be literal
34:15
Speaker 1: raw box score production, or it could be he's pulling
34:19
Speaker 1: something which opens up this for Shakir or opens up
34:23
Speaker 1: this for Kincaid. It's just, you need exactly your point.
34:28
Speaker 1: Like you need some kind of bucket getter at those
34:31
Speaker 1: premium positions. Some guys have to win some one-on-ones. And
34:35
Speaker 1: it comes down to the guys, but also Joe Brady
34:37
Speaker 1: can kind of set them up for success a little bit.
34:39
Speaker 1: So I love that point from you. Oh, and I
34:41
Speaker 1: guess my last little point for this, you know, one-on-ones
34:43
Speaker 1: at premium positions. Nico Collins is super good. I feel
34:47
Speaker 1: like we've forgotten about that as like a society because
34:51
Speaker 1: of what the Texans offense was last year. You know,
34:54
Speaker 1: it's funny. I don't remember. It wasn't last year. I
34:57
Speaker 1: think it was the year before. I think maybe it
35:00
Speaker 1: might've been for Bill's Texans, but you and I somehow
35:02
Speaker 1: got talking about Nico Collins in an episode.
35:04
Speaker 2: It was, I think it was, I think it was
35:09
Speaker 2: the 2023 or not 2020 or 2020. Yeah.
35:11
Speaker 1: The 2024 game in Houston. Yeah. I think. And we're
35:15
Speaker 1: talking about how good he is on in breakers. You
35:16
Speaker 1: were rattling off all these in breaker metrics, but Nico Collins.
35:21
Speaker 1: So from 2023 through 2025, it just went for the
35:23
Speaker 1: last three years amongst 87 qualifying wide receivers and second
35:27
Speaker 1: in yards per route run, seventh in yards per catch,
35:29
Speaker 1: fifth in receiving yards, seventh in first down catches, tied
35:32
Speaker 1: for seventh in touchdowns, seventh in yards after catch, and
35:35
Speaker 1: seventh in yards after catch per reception. He's sick. I
35:41
Speaker 1: know Stroud has questions. I know the offensive line has questions.
35:44
Speaker 1: The run game was atrocious last year. I'm going to
35:47
Speaker 1: talk about that in a little bit in one of
35:48
Speaker 1: my points, but from a premium standpoint, I'm interested to
35:53
Speaker 1: see the Bills' edges versus the Texans' offensive tackles, but
35:57
Speaker 1: I'm more interested to see, is Christian Benford traveling with
35:59
Speaker 1: Nico Collins? If not, how is Hairston holding up against Nico?
36:03
Speaker 1: Are they going to bracket him? Are they going to
36:05
Speaker 1: give him any kind of extra attention? Do you have
36:08
Speaker 1: to allocate resources towards him and or the run game?
36:13
Speaker 1: I'm really, really, really hoping they let Benford shadow him
36:16
Speaker 1: because I want to see Benford and Nico Collins battle
36:19
Speaker 1: all game. I want to see Benford get up and press.
36:21
Speaker 1: And I'm just saying, hey, good on good, one on one.
36:24
Speaker 1: fight and just see what happens and i want to
36:26
Speaker 1: kind of let those two you know uh i forget
36:29
Speaker 1: the actor's name but that first godzilla with the whole
36:31
Speaker 1: like let them fight like that's what i want just
36:33
Speaker 1: like let them fight and let's see what's up um
36:35
Speaker 1: but yeah nico collins is super good i feel like
36:37
Speaker 1: a lot of people forgot about that he's been hurt
36:39
Speaker 1: past couple you know banged up for the past couple
36:41
Speaker 1: seasons he plays through stuff quarterback play has been inconsistent
36:45
Speaker 1: um but yeah i just wanted to add that in
36:46
Speaker 1: i just i love nico collins so i just wanted
36:48
Speaker 1: to talk about him in some way in this episode.
36:51
Speaker 2: So a couple other fun Nico Collins stats. If we
36:55
Speaker 2: specify to slants, ends, goes, digs, according to media specifies, ends, slants,
37:03
Speaker 2: and posts. Since 2023, Nico Collins, first in the NFL
37:07
Speaker 2: receiving yards on those routes. First in receiving touchdowns on
37:11
Speaker 2: those routes. He also is fifth in yards after the catch.
37:19
Speaker 2: He averages 18.6 yards per reception on those routes. And
37:23
Speaker 2: the thing that makes Nico Collins so cool, and honestly,
37:27
Speaker 2: it makes it so like, as much as I do
37:29
Speaker 2: not like the Texans, the fact that my favorite team
37:31
Speaker 2: has to play them twice a year. He is a
37:34
Speaker 2: carbon copy of what Andre Johnson was for the Texans.
37:39
Speaker 2: A big physical monster who you run him over the middle.
37:44
Speaker 2: He's going to get hammered by somebody. He's going to
37:47
Speaker 2: get up, catch the ball, And he's going to line
37:49
Speaker 2: back up and do it again. All the explosives, all
37:52
Speaker 2: the big in breakers. CJ Stroud trusts him so much
37:56
Speaker 2: because he gives you such a wide catch radius. And
37:59
Speaker 2: he's also so explosive. You can't just sit on those
38:03
Speaker 2: 10 yard dig routes because if he runs past you,
38:05
Speaker 2: he's scoring a touchdown. So I wonder what the Bills
38:09
Speaker 2: game plan is, because I also think. This Texans receiver
38:13
Speaker 2: core is not where you want it to be right now.
38:17
Speaker 2: Higgins has a torn ACL. Jalen Noel actually is like–
38:21
Speaker 2: I think he can step up for them this year,
38:23
Speaker 2: but he broke his finger in training camp. Probably not
38:27
Speaker 2: going to play that much. Keyshawn Booty is a very
38:30
Speaker 2: fun player, but he wasn't getting reps in New England.
38:35
Speaker 2: And then after you get past that, you get to
38:37
Speaker 2: like I think– Christian, not Christian Kirk. I think it's
38:41
Speaker 2: another Jack, former Jaguar. I think Zay Jones is on
38:43
Speaker 2: this team now. Xavier.
38:45
Speaker 1: I know you have it.
38:45
Speaker 2: Yeah.
38:45
Speaker 1: You have Xavier Hutchinson.
38:47
Speaker 2: Like they're the Texans are probably going to live out
38:51
Speaker 2: of 12 and 13 personnel simply because they have to.
38:55
Speaker 2: So because of that, I wonder if they pull out
38:58
Speaker 2: a little old Bella chick and just go one double 12. You,
39:02
Speaker 2: you put Harrison or whoever the second corner is and
39:06
Speaker 2: a safety. over nico collins and let benford just take
39:09
Speaker 2: away the next best receiving option because if you have
39:12
Speaker 2: two against one you can hopefully slow collins down and
39:16
Speaker 2: just force cj strout to go somewhere else with the
39:19
Speaker 2: ball because nico collins gonna get funneled a lot of
39:22
Speaker 2: targets this year especially over the middle of the field
39:26
Speaker 2: so i wonder if in this scenario do you have
39:28
Speaker 2: like a safety waiting to hammer on any dig route
39:31
Speaker 2: and you have the corner playing over the top, or
39:33
Speaker 2: do you have a linebacker underneath him where you can
39:36
Speaker 2: sort of have like, if depending on the situation down
39:40
Speaker 2: in distance and you're, you know, there's going to be
39:42
Speaker 2: an end breaker. It's going to be a slant. You
39:44
Speaker 2: can have a linebacker double on that end breaker and
39:48
Speaker 2: take away that window. So, I think there's a lot
39:50
Speaker 2: of options for Jim Leonard, but you have to revolve
39:54
Speaker 2: it around making sure Nico Collins does not catch the
39:58
Speaker 2: ball over the middle of the field. Because if he does,
40:00
Speaker 2: it's either going for a first down or a touchdown.
40:04
Speaker 1: My two biggest resource allocation questions for the Bills defense
40:08
Speaker 1: are how many resources do you have to allocate to
40:11
Speaker 1: stop the run in this game? And how many resources
40:14
Speaker 1: do you have to allocate to Nico Collins? And so
40:16
Speaker 1: much of that is math-changing potential options. On that side
40:21
Speaker 1: of the ball. Also tied within that. I do. I
40:25
Speaker 1: really want to see. A Nico Collins dig route. With
40:29
Speaker 1: Chauncey Gardner Johnson driving on it. And I want to
40:31
Speaker 1: see the two of them meet. And just collide. And
40:33
Speaker 1: I want to see who wins. And I want to see.
40:36
Speaker 1: How much chirping Chauncey does after it. Regardless. I just
40:39
Speaker 1: want to see that. You know it's funny too. When
40:41
Speaker 1: watching some of Nico's tape from last year. I think
40:44
Speaker 1: it might have been against the Jags. Maybe not. He
40:48
Speaker 1: runs a dig and just gets absolutely, Oh, or maybe
40:52
Speaker 1: is it Broncos? No, it's not Brandon Jones, but he
40:53
Speaker 1: runs a dig and the safety is waiting to poach
40:56
Speaker 1: and just comes and absolutely cracks him. And Nico just
40:59
Speaker 1: bounces off it and then gets forward for another seven
41:01
Speaker 1: yards while the safety just like stays down. And it's
41:04
Speaker 1: just like, Oh, like he's just, yeah, he's like six
41:06
Speaker 1: foot four, like 220 pounds. And he's also really fast
41:10
Speaker 1: and really long and athletic and runs good routes.
41:13
Speaker 2: Oh yeah.
41:13
Speaker 1: Super fun part there. All right. I like where we started,
41:16
Speaker 1: like where this conversation is going. I'm not, Too surprised,
41:19
Speaker 1: but I'm also happy that we differed a little, but
41:20
Speaker 1: we're able to unite the points. What is your second
41:23
Speaker 1: aspect here that will decide Bill's versus Texans in week one?
41:27
Speaker 2: So I'm going to flip it to the Bill's defense,
41:28
Speaker 2: and I'm going with a trio of people. I'm going
41:32
Speaker 2: with Jim Leonard, Deion Walker, and Ed Oliver against Nick Cayley,
41:37
Speaker 2: Keelan Rutledge, Ed Ingram, and I believe it's going to
41:41
Speaker 2: be Evan Brown.
41:42
Speaker 1: Yeah, at center.
41:44
Speaker 2: The Texans' offensive line is very fascinating. They signed Wyatt Teller.
41:49
Speaker 1: That's such a good way of being like, this might
41:52
Speaker 1: not be good. It might not work out.
41:53
Speaker 2: Oh, yeah. There's a chance that this completely backfires because
41:57
Speaker 2: they signed Wyatt Teller and signed Braden Smith in free agency,
42:01
Speaker 2: and neither of them are probably going to start. In
42:04
Speaker 2: terms of resource allocation, that's not a way to build
42:07
Speaker 2: a Super Bowl winning team. But when you think about
42:10
Speaker 2: what this Texans team wants to be and what they
42:14
Speaker 2: want to be this year, They're going to try and
42:17
Speaker 2: run the piss out of the football. You train for Montgomery.
42:21
Speaker 2: Woody Marks is bulked up a little bit. You go
42:23
Speaker 2: out and draft guy Marlon Klein, who I think is
42:25
Speaker 2: very quietly going to play a big role in this game.
42:28
Speaker 1: And you also keep like 75 tight ends on the roster.
42:31
Speaker 2: Yeah, like you're going to try and out physical other teams.
42:34
Speaker 2: And it matches up with where the Texans started to
42:37
Speaker 2: win last year when their offense just found something. It
42:41
Speaker 2: was when they put multiple tight ends on the field,
42:43
Speaker 2: put a fullback on the field and run duos. We
42:46
Speaker 2: cannot trust going to the spread or shotgun drop back
42:50
Speaker 2: game because we don't have the offensive line for it.
42:53
Speaker 2: And they probably will not because Ed Ingram and Trent
42:56
Speaker 2: Brown are starting at right tackle. Evan Brown is starting
43:00
Speaker 2: at center. Keelan Rutledge is a rookie starting at left guard.
43:03
Speaker 2: So now what you're worried about is getting in the
43:06
Speaker 2: dropback scenarios with those guys because those aren't– they're not
43:09
Speaker 2: pass first. They're going to try and lean on you
43:11
Speaker 2: in the run game. They're going to run a lot
43:13
Speaker 2: behind Ed Ingram and Trent Brown because that's a whole
43:16
Speaker 2: lot of people on that one side. And they're going
43:18
Speaker 2: to try and run duo. They're going to try and
43:20
Speaker 2: run at you. And if we know anything about how
43:22
Speaker 2: we've talked about the Bills' defense– They do not want
43:26
Speaker 2: to be, they do not want those problems, or at
43:29
Speaker 2: least they did not want those problems. They were built
43:32
Speaker 2: to play fast. They were built to attack zone runs.
43:35
Speaker 2: They were not built to attack gap or duo runs,
43:39
Speaker 2: which is essentially power without a puller. But I think
43:44
Speaker 2: with Jim Leonard and what Jim Leonard's going to have
43:46
Speaker 2: to do, I think he's more willing to lean into
43:49
Speaker 2: stealing gaps via slanting than Sean Dermott was. And I
43:53
Speaker 2: think that's going to be a major part of this game,
43:55
Speaker 2: which is why I highlighted Deion Walker and Ed Oliver,
43:58
Speaker 2: who are their best lateral movers on that side of
44:01
Speaker 2: the ball at defensive tackle. Deion Walker is such, again,
44:05
Speaker 2: I'm going to use the word fascinating. He's such a
44:07
Speaker 2: fascinating player because he's a 6'7, 340-pound three-tech player. He
44:13
Speaker 2: is not a defensive tackle that moves the way his
44:18
Speaker 2: size should, but that also means he's not going to
44:22
Speaker 2: hold the point of attack like guys his size should.
44:25
Speaker 2: He has a thin lower half, so what you want
44:27
Speaker 2: to try and win with him is going across face.
44:30
Speaker 2: Ed Oliver, fantastic, 290 pounds maybe. Go across the face.
44:36
Speaker 2: You know, if you're going to play TJ Sanders, crossing face.
44:39
Speaker 2: Everybody has to be slanting and moving. And I think
44:43
Speaker 2: this goes into a larger part. We talk about the
44:45
Speaker 2: passing game against the Bills pass defense, and it's changing
44:49
Speaker 2: the picture. And we talk about changing the picture a
44:51
Speaker 2: lot when it comes to defensive coordinators attacking quarterbacks. But
44:56
Speaker 2: it's also just as important about attacking protections and offensive linemen.
45:01
Speaker 2: Because the Texans last year were awful. In terms of
45:06
Speaker 2: blitz pickup and pass protection situations, because what they'll do
45:10
Speaker 2: is you knew they were going to four man slide.
45:12
Speaker 2: They'll form in one way and they're going to leave
45:14
Speaker 2: one of their tackles isolated and they're going to have
45:17
Speaker 2: a running back in to protect help protect. So if
45:20
Speaker 2: you show them one way. to force him to slide
45:24
Speaker 2: that way and then bring everybody else overloaded from the
45:27
Speaker 2: other side, you fooled them. You got them. And even then, like,
45:31
Speaker 2: you might not need to because, again, their pass protection
45:35
Speaker 2: is not that great. And that's how C.J. Stroud sort
45:38
Speaker 2: of looked the way he did was because they did
45:41
Speaker 2: not have very good blitz or pass protection plans. So
45:45
Speaker 2: for Jim Leonard and Deion Walker and Ed Oliver, I'm
45:48
Speaker 2: highlighting those three. because I want to see them attack
45:51
Speaker 2: the protections of this Texans offensive line that's just trying
45:55
Speaker 2: to find their best five. They got a second-year left tackle,
45:58
Speaker 2: rookie left guard. There's a way to attack this team
46:02
Speaker 2: offensively through the offensive line, and in the run game.
46:05
Speaker 2: That's the biggest, again, to go back to the run game,
46:08
Speaker 2: you have to stop the run in this game. Get
46:11
Speaker 2: them into obvious passing scenarios, and then you can start
46:14
Speaker 2: to pull out some of the cool blitz, the pressure scuff,
46:18
Speaker 2: that always gets clipped on social media. That's where you can,
46:22
Speaker 2: you got to earn the right. We used to call
46:24
Speaker 2: it earn the right to rush the passer.
46:25
Speaker 1: Yes.
46:26
Speaker 2: To go in, like make the cool Dan Casey blitz
46:29
Speaker 2: pickup stuff. You got to get, you got to earn
46:31
Speaker 2: that right. So I think the bills need to go
46:33
Speaker 2: earn that on early downs.
46:36
Speaker 1: I love that. That ties perfectly with one of my points. I,
46:39
Speaker 1: in general, I think the run game is going to
46:41
Speaker 1: matter on both sides of the ball. Bill's run game
46:43
Speaker 1: versus Texans run defense. And then Texans run game versus
46:46
Speaker 1: Bill's run defense. That particularly was one of my points.
46:50
Speaker 1: I literally titled it, What Gives? The Bills' run defense
46:54
Speaker 1: versus the Texans' rushing offense and how much of a
46:56
Speaker 1: difference can Jim Leonard make? For reference, last year, heading
47:00
Speaker 1: into their Week 12 matchup in late November, the Houston
47:04
Speaker 1: Texans were last in the NFL in rushing success rate
47:10
Speaker 1: at 35.1%. In the first half alone against the Buffalo Bills,
47:14
Speaker 1: they had a rushing success rate of 64%. Oh, an
47:20
Speaker 1: outrageous jump and a painful one. They finished that game
47:25
Speaker 1: with the seventh best EPA per Russian week 12. And
47:28
Speaker 1: then it ended up being, they were 10th overall and
47:30
Speaker 1: rushing success rate at 52%. So the first half 64%
47:34
Speaker 1: versus their season average of 35. And they finished the
47:36
Speaker 1: game at 52, which is still huge compared to their
47:39
Speaker 1: season average of 35 last year on the whole Texans offense.
47:44
Speaker 2: Cool.
47:45
Speaker 1: 29th in rushing DVOA. 30th in EPA per rush. 25th
47:49
Speaker 1: in rushing success rate. 29th in explosive run rate. 21st
47:55
Speaker 1: in yards before contact per rush. 27th in yards after
47:59
Speaker 1: contact per rush. And 27th in yards per rush. A putrid,
48:04
Speaker 1: putrid run game. But the Bills run defense also really putrid.
48:10
Speaker 1: 31st EPA per rush allowed.
48:12
Speaker 2: 20th.
48:14
Speaker 1: And rushing success rate, 26 yards before contact per rush,
48:19
Speaker 1: 32nd yards after contact per rush, and per NextGenStats, the
48:24
Speaker 1: worst yards after contact per rush mark since they started
48:27
Speaker 1: tracking data in 2018. And then the Bills were also
48:31
Speaker 1: 31st in explosive run rate allowed at 13.4%. Those are
48:34
Speaker 1: runs of 10 or more yards. They would get some
48:37
Speaker 1: good stuff every once in a while, which are runs
48:39
Speaker 1: for zero or less, but that took a dip. The
48:42
Speaker 1: Bills run defense last year. This is no secret. They
48:44
Speaker 1: were terrible. The Texans rush offense last year. They were terrible.
48:49
Speaker 1: Which one gives in this game? Has the Texans offensive line,
48:53
Speaker 1: you know, you mentioned it, especially like you go with
48:55
Speaker 1: Keelan Rutledge in the first round, and I believe they
48:58
Speaker 1: traded up to get Keelan Rutledge in that first round.
49:01
Speaker 1: Mahler comes from Georgia Tech. If anybody watches college football
49:05
Speaker 1: and you watch Georgia Tech, you know what the MO
49:08
Speaker 1: is for Georgia Tech and that offense is I wonder
49:13
Speaker 1: who wins that battle because in and of itself, like
49:16
Speaker 1: it's going to matter so much for the game, but
49:18
Speaker 1: then exactly to your point. so much of what Jim
49:21
Speaker 1: Leonard is going to bring someone who I've been pounding
49:25
Speaker 1: the table for since 2021 and 2022 of you know
49:27
Speaker 1: wanting him to come to the bill because he's exactly
49:29
Speaker 1: what I thought they needed defensively from a philosophical and
49:32
Speaker 1: identity standpoint so much of what he does is man
49:35
Speaker 1: here comes this fun sim pressure this creeper pressure this
49:39
Speaker 1: five-man game how we're attacking protections, how we're attacking the back,
49:43
Speaker 1: how we're attacking the formation, what we're blitzing, what we're doing.
49:47
Speaker 1: You can't get to any of that. If it's constantly
49:49
Speaker 1: third and two, or if you get it to second
49:51
Speaker 1: and four and you rush for another first down, like
49:54
Speaker 1: not only do you need to stop the run to
49:56
Speaker 1: stop the run, but also get the Texans into those
50:00
Speaker 1: known passing down in distances and situations, and then let
50:03
Speaker 1: Jim Leonard kind of get into his bag, test that
50:06
Speaker 1: Texans offensive line, Are you guys really good? Are you
50:09
Speaker 1: that much better than last year? Is this the best
50:11
Speaker 1: combination of your start starting five? Is CJ Stroud like,
50:15
Speaker 1: does he have the yips or is he fine? And
50:18
Speaker 1: is he going to get back to rookie level CJ Stroud,
50:20
Speaker 1: which was really good. All of that starts with the
50:24
Speaker 1: run game winning on early downs. And I loved your
50:27
Speaker 1: point of this Bill's defense is, is going to be movement-based.
50:32
Speaker 1: You're going to get run blitzes, run stunts, slants. You're
50:36
Speaker 1: going to get a lot of design movement or the
50:38
Speaker 1: second level playing off the front. But for as much
50:42
Speaker 1: as you are going to get that, at a certain point,
50:46
Speaker 1: you are going to have to play at the point
50:48
Speaker 1: of attack and say, nuh-uh, you're not going to move me.
50:51
Speaker 1: And I don't know if the Bills are capable of
50:54
Speaker 1: that right now. And that starts with Deion Walker, someone who,
50:57
Speaker 1: I say this every time I talk about him, You
50:58
Speaker 1: called him the Iron Giant on one of these shows
51:00
Speaker 1: with me a couple years ago. He's huge. Doesn't have
51:03
Speaker 1: a lower body bend. It's hard to get low when
51:06
Speaker 1: you're 6'7. It's hard to mitigate displacement and hold the
51:09
Speaker 1: point of attack when you're 6'7. And guys can get
51:13
Speaker 1: under you and maybe move you a little bit. I
51:15
Speaker 1: have questions at the other interior spots with TJ Sanders
51:19
Speaker 1: and Landon Jackson. Both of them got moved around a
51:22
Speaker 1: good chunk in this preseason. And for a team, like
51:25
Speaker 1: you said, I love the duo point for the Texans.
51:27
Speaker 1: Duo is an at-you run. Duo is a, hey, man,
51:31
Speaker 1: you versus me. Here's the line. Let's see who moves who.
51:36
Speaker 1: Can you hold up at the point of attack? And
51:37
Speaker 1: the Texans, I think, have questions of can they people
51:40
Speaker 1: move at the point of attack? Can they stay organized?
51:43
Speaker 1: So what gives? How much does it give with that
51:47
Speaker 1: run aspect? How it ties into the larger picture. And
51:50
Speaker 1: something else I wanted to mention, too, with the scheme change.
51:54
Speaker 1: Jim Leonard mentioned this specifically speaking on Terrell Bernard back
51:58
Speaker 1: in August. But this nugget also tied into how the
52:01
Speaker 1: linebackers are going to play more in this defense. So
52:04
Speaker 1: Jim Leonard was talking about Bernard and he said, you know,
52:06
Speaker 1: he's so smart. Sometimes you want him to turn his
52:09
Speaker 1: brain off and just go play free and react to
52:11
Speaker 1: what he sees rather than overthink it. That's the biggest thing.
52:16
Speaker 1: It was a little more structured in what he was
52:18
Speaker 1: asked to do in the previous scheme. It was very much, quote,
52:22
Speaker 1: I see this, I do this. And just getting him
52:26
Speaker 1: to play a little bit more free was probably the
52:28
Speaker 1: number one thing. And here's the big point, tying into
52:32
Speaker 1: our conversation here. If you want to play the way
52:35
Speaker 1: we want to up front, in front of him, Bernard's
52:39
Speaker 1: going to have to react a little bit more. And
52:41
Speaker 1: that was the number one thing he's had to learn.
52:44
Speaker 1: This defense is going to be moving and stunting and slanting,
52:48
Speaker 1: and it might work right away. It might blow up,
52:50
Speaker 1: and the linebackers are going to have to make it right,
52:53
Speaker 1: but you're going to get a lot of movement. Leonard's
52:56
Speaker 1: defense is in Wisconsin. When he was defensive coordinator there,
52:58
Speaker 1: they had a lot of movement. You also had a
53:00
Speaker 1: lot of gap and a half. You had guys playing
53:02
Speaker 1: at the point of attack. For as much as Keanu
53:04
Speaker 1: Benton is sick and he's crossing face and doing all
53:07
Speaker 1: this stuff, Keanu Benton was also holding at the point
53:09
Speaker 1: of attack and playing gap and a half and also
53:11
Speaker 1: two gapping and stuff. Can they do that? Or is
53:15
Speaker 1: it on Leonard to push the right buttons and pull
53:18
Speaker 1: the right levers and win with his play calls and
53:21
Speaker 1: win with the scheme and then how that ties into
53:23
Speaker 1: the individual aspect? The run game conversation for Texans offense,
53:27
Speaker 1: Bills defense, I feel like is like an iceberg and
53:31
Speaker 1: has layer after layer after layer. It's a parfait or
53:35
Speaker 1: it's an ogre like an onion. It's just layer after
53:38
Speaker 1: layer after layer and all these subplots because there's so
53:41
Speaker 1: many things that connect to it.
53:43
Speaker 2: And one of the big parts where it connects is
53:46
Speaker 2: with what the Texans want to be in the passing
53:48
Speaker 2: game as well. They're not going to try and be
53:52
Speaker 2: a quick game team this year. Their quick game is
53:54
Speaker 2: their run game. They don't have the receivers to do
53:57
Speaker 2: quick game stuff right now. They are going to try
53:59
Speaker 2: and take shots downfield, which means they're going to try
54:03
Speaker 2: and load everybody. It's the new meta. Everybody's talking about
54:06
Speaker 2: 13 personnel. I think the Texans are going to go.
54:10
Speaker 2: I would say less 13, but more 21, 22. Like
54:14
Speaker 2: they're going to try and get really big with the
54:16
Speaker 2: fullback and see in this game for Jim Leonard. Do
54:21
Speaker 2: you do you respect their run game? Because the biggest
54:25
Speaker 2: thing is this team and this Texas team, you have to,
54:30
Speaker 2: like we say, earn the right to rest a passer.
54:32
Speaker 2: You got to earn the right to throw the ball
54:33
Speaker 2: downfield sometimes. You can throw out as many tight ends
54:38
Speaker 2: as you want. You can put as many fullbacks on
54:40
Speaker 2: the field as you want. But if you can't move people,
54:43
Speaker 2: we're going to stick in nickel. And that's, again, we
54:45
Speaker 2: talked about the Seahawks at the top. The Seahawks won
54:48
Speaker 2: the Super Bowl based on that mantra. We don't care
54:52
Speaker 2: what you put out onto the field. We're going to
54:54
Speaker 2: play nickel until you decide or until you make us
54:57
Speaker 2: earn having to play nickel against your 12 or 13 personnel.
55:01
Speaker 2: So against this Texas team that still has a little
55:04
Speaker 2: bit of questions, I also think which side breaks first,
55:09
Speaker 2: which side decides, hey, we're running to a brick wall.
55:12
Speaker 2: This isn't worth it. Let's go spread and shred. Or
55:16
Speaker 2: we can't defend this out of light boxes. We got
55:19
Speaker 2: to move somebody down. We got to start playing a
55:21
Speaker 2: little bigger. Whichever side starts to do that first, I
55:25
Speaker 2: think will be a huge factor in this game because
55:27
Speaker 2: it's going to open up. Like we said, if you
55:29
Speaker 2: want to try and double Nico Collins, You can't really
55:32
Speaker 2: do that at a single high. So if you want
55:37
Speaker 2: to keep a lid on Collins specifically, you've got to
55:40
Speaker 2: defend the run maybe one man down. And can they
55:43
Speaker 2: do that? Do they have the bodies to do that
55:46
Speaker 2: is going to be the biggest question. Yes.
55:48
Speaker 1: Can they win some one-on-ones up front? Can they steal
55:50
Speaker 1: some gaps? Can you get one guy to eat two
55:53
Speaker 1: blockers and change the math? And honestly, that goes on
55:56
Speaker 1: both sides. But yeah, this Bills defense, and especially with
56:00
Speaker 1: us not you know, not having seen Jim Leonard with
56:05
Speaker 1: this team before and how vanilla a lot of what
56:08
Speaker 1: they were doing was in the preseason and understandably. So like,
56:12
Speaker 1: this is a guy who served under Vance Joseph and
56:16
Speaker 1: who served under Rex Ryan to very creative, especially Rex Ryan,
56:20
Speaker 1: who was very much, I know the connotation and the
56:23
Speaker 1: association that Rex Ryan has in Buffalo because of how
56:26
Speaker 1: terrible his run went and what he did to the
56:28
Speaker 1: cold front defense and trying to put a square peg
56:30
Speaker 1: into a round hole. But Rex Ryan, when Leonard was
56:35
Speaker 1: cutting his teeth with Baltimore and the Jets, Rex Ryan
56:38
Speaker 1: was at the peak of his powers and was a
56:40
Speaker 1: defensive mind that people to this day still copy, still imitate, duplicate,
56:46
Speaker 1: and Leonard is one of those guys, along with what
56:48
Speaker 1: he's learned the past couple years with Vance Joseph and
56:50
Speaker 1: then his time with Justin Wilcox, a little bit with
56:52
Speaker 1: Dave Aranda. And so, yeah, what does Leonard lean into?
56:56
Speaker 1: We haven't really seen it, but he can't get into
56:59
Speaker 1: all the creative stuff if they can't stop the run.
57:03
Speaker 1: And then again, even that run piece, like, do they
57:05
Speaker 1: got to do it from base? Are they in five
57:07
Speaker 1: man surfaces? If they're in four down nickel stuff, can
57:10
Speaker 1: they stop it in four down nickel stuff? Like what's
57:13
Speaker 1: your interior rotation? Like is Greg Gaines going to give
57:16
Speaker 1: you meaningful snaps on the inside? Like, is it Dwayne Carter?
57:19
Speaker 1: Can Jackson and Sanders be anything like how much does
57:22
Speaker 1: Oliver win his stuff? Like, can Oliver just win with
57:25
Speaker 1: quickness and be like, Oh, what's up at Ingram? Like
57:27
Speaker 1: skirt and just slice right by him and get into
57:29
Speaker 1: the backfield. Oh, again, so many layers and so many
57:33
Speaker 1: good points. I love, I figured you would have something
57:37
Speaker 1: that connected to that. And I was just waiting for when.
57:41
Speaker 1: And so I love that you made that point because
57:42
Speaker 1: it gave me an easy segue there. All right, we've
57:45
Speaker 1: each given two. Now we each have our final third point. JP,
57:49
Speaker 1: your third aspect that will decide Bills versus Texans in
57:53
Speaker 1: week one.
57:54
Speaker 2: So mine, I want to talk about two Bills players specifically.
57:58
Speaker 2: James Cook and Ty Johnson. I think he's to this game.
58:03
Speaker 2: Ty Johnson, low key. One of my, one of the
58:06
Speaker 2: most fun players in the NFL, because you know, when
58:08
Speaker 2: he's on the field, the bills are throwing the ball
58:12
Speaker 2: and Ty Johnson's probably going to play a factor in
58:15
Speaker 2: that passing concept. That's, that's what he does on the
58:18
Speaker 2: field because whenever he is in the game, like he
58:22
Speaker 2: is going to find targets for comparison. He had 24 targets.
58:27
Speaker 2: last season and two touchdowns. He averaged 11 yards per catch.
58:32
Speaker 2: And I think for this team and for this game specifically,
58:35
Speaker 2: we talked about how much the Texans did not respect
58:39
Speaker 2: the Bills passing game at all. They played man coverage 62.5%
58:43
Speaker 2: of the time. Well, if you're going to play man coverage,
58:46
Speaker 2: and we talked about the weakest link in this defense
58:49
Speaker 2: might be Henry Toto, maybe Aziz Alshair, if you really
58:53
Speaker 2: want to try and go at them. It's going to
58:56
Speaker 2: have to be the running backs because with the way
58:58
Speaker 2: that they play nickel, Kincaid probably going to see a
59:01
Speaker 2: lot of Jalen Petray. I wouldn't even be surprised if
59:06
Speaker 2: they put Kamari Lassiter on Dalton Kincaid. and let Petrie
59:11
Speaker 2: match with Shakir and just get the bigger, more physical
59:15
Speaker 2: guy to just kind of play bully ball with Kincaid.
59:19
Speaker 2: So if those guys are like, if you're saying man v. man,
59:23
Speaker 2: if you're going down the board and seeing which matchup
59:25
Speaker 2: you like, you'll probably get the Ty Johnson and James
59:28
Speaker 2: Cook against the linebackers where you're like, okay, I think
59:32
Speaker 2: we can win here. And because of how much this
59:36
Speaker 2: passing game is predicated on the running backs, you know
59:39
Speaker 2: all the movement stuff they do. They'll motion a guy
59:42
Speaker 2: out of the backfield and motion him back in for
59:44
Speaker 2: a man or zone tell, and then roll fast out
59:47
Speaker 2: to the flat or get them designed routes. I want
59:50
Speaker 2: to see if Joe Brady can get them designed targets downfield.
59:55
Speaker 2: I think that's where the next evolution of this passing
59:57
Speaker 2: game can go is getting your running backs vertical, especially
1:00:01
Speaker 2: with how, again, I say this kindly, especially with how
1:00:05
Speaker 2: shallow the route depth for the receivers are. You need
1:00:10
Speaker 2: somebody to do something downfield. Again, I use this comparison
1:00:14
Speaker 2: all the time. It's like you have a bunch of
1:00:16
Speaker 2: DeMar DeRozans on the field.
1:00:19
Speaker 1: Yeah, you have me there.
1:00:21
Speaker 2: You need a three-point shooter. You need somebody who can
1:00:25
Speaker 2: create something downfield.
1:00:26
Speaker 1: Can't just have all mid-range jumpers. That can't just be it.
1:00:30
Speaker 2: Yeah, mid-range jumper looks awesome when it hits. I love
1:00:33
Speaker 2: the mid-range jumper. But if everybody on the court is
1:00:37
Speaker 2: only shooting mid-range jumpers, defense is just going to sit
1:00:40
Speaker 2: there and be like, all right, there's no reason to
1:00:43
Speaker 2: try and extend our defense. So you're playing into their hands.
1:00:48
Speaker 2: So with the Texans, if you have nobody that they
1:00:51
Speaker 2: respect defensively, going downfield, they're just going to sit on
1:00:55
Speaker 2: every crossing route. They're going to sit on every mesh
1:00:57
Speaker 2: concept like they did last year. So if you're looking
1:01:01
Speaker 2: for a 1v1 matchup, I think it's got to be
1:01:03
Speaker 2: James Cook. It's got to be Ty Johnson. And then
1:01:05
Speaker 2: last season, the Bills actually had the most successful run game,
1:01:11
Speaker 2: one of the most successful run games against the Texans
1:01:14
Speaker 2: that we saw. They were fourth in the NFL, or
1:01:16
Speaker 2: fourth against the Texans in success rate. Although again, 38.1%,
1:01:18
Speaker 2: which is not great. But this is the Texans defense.
1:01:24
Speaker 2: So there's the fourth highest success rate they gave up
1:01:27
Speaker 2: at all last season. They gave up the I believe
1:01:31
Speaker 2: it's the highest yards per carry that they gave up
1:01:34
Speaker 2: across last season is against the Bills. So I think
1:01:38
Speaker 2: in this game, you're going to have to lean a
1:01:41
Speaker 2: little bit on the run game. And I think that's
1:01:43
Speaker 2: been we talk a lot about what has happened with
1:01:46
Speaker 2: the Bills and their offensive evolution. An underrated part of
1:01:50
Speaker 2: that has been in 2023, they were top 10 in
1:01:55
Speaker 2: neutral pass frequency. Last season, they were 18th. They've leaned
1:02:00
Speaker 2: into the run game more. And that's not saying take
1:02:04
Speaker 2: the ball out of Josh Allen's hands. That's not what
1:02:06
Speaker 2: we're saying at all. But what it does is it
1:02:09
Speaker 2: maximizes Josh Allen so he's not having to do everything
1:02:13
Speaker 2: for this team. He's not having to be everything for
1:02:16
Speaker 2: this team. You have a great offensive line. You have
1:02:19
Speaker 2: a great running back. I believe it was actually a
1:02:22
Speaker 2: quote in a story by Pete Prisco where Josh Allen
1:02:25
Speaker 2: is like, if they're not stopping the run, just keep
1:02:28
Speaker 2: handing the ball.
1:02:29
Speaker 1: Yeah, because I think you quoted that as something of like,
1:02:31
Speaker 1: you know, see, quarterbacks don't matter. Like we don't.
1:02:33
Speaker 2: Exactly listen, run it until they stop it. Like that's
1:02:38
Speaker 2: the that's the best part about the Bills and what
1:02:40
Speaker 2: the Bills have been over the last couple of seasons.
1:02:42
Speaker 2: they are now willing to run it until they stop it.
1:02:45
Speaker 2: That is why I like Joe Brady. He knows if
1:02:49
Speaker 2: there's something that works, keep running it until they stop it.
1:02:53
Speaker 2: So I think if you're going to attack this Texas defense,
1:02:56
Speaker 2: which again... Easier said than done because they just added
1:02:59
Speaker 2: Kaden McDonald, who was the best run-stopping player in last
1:03:05
Speaker 2: year's draft. So now you just go ahead and add
1:03:07
Speaker 2: that to the defense. Good luck with that.
1:03:09
Speaker 1: As a rotational guy, as like a second-string depth guy.
1:03:13
Speaker 2: Yeah, he's their early-down guy. They can rotate in Sheldon
1:03:16
Speaker 2: Rankins or Tommy Togiai or even Logan Hall. They can
1:03:19
Speaker 2: just rotate those guys in. Like, cool. There are so
1:03:25
Speaker 2: many teams in the NFL right now that cannot stop
1:03:28
Speaker 2: the run, that decided Caden McDonald is the second-round pick.
1:03:31
Speaker 2: And I'm just like, okay, man. Listen, I quote it
1:03:35
Speaker 2: all the time. Everybody want to be a bodybuilder? Nobody
1:03:38
Speaker 2: wants to lift heavy weight. Everybody wants to defend the
1:03:40
Speaker 2: run out of light boxes? Nobody wants a nose tackle
1:03:43
Speaker 2: that will actually let them do that. So now the
1:03:46
Speaker 2: Texans have a guy that will actually let them do that.
1:03:48
Speaker 2: But I think this game is going to be predicated
1:03:50
Speaker 2: not only on Ty Johnson and James Cook in the
1:03:53
Speaker 2: run game, but attacking these linebackers and trying to win
1:03:57
Speaker 2: one-on-ones that we talked about at the top, like their
1:04:00
Speaker 2: force multipliers, your force multiplier is going up against arguably
1:04:04
Speaker 2: their weakest link. Hammer it until they stop it.
1:04:08
Speaker 1: I cannot tell you how much I love that point
1:04:11
Speaker 1: and how insightful I find it. And that's not just
1:04:14
Speaker 1: because it ties into my final point as well. So
1:04:18
Speaker 1: I titled this, where do the bills find success on offense?
1:04:21
Speaker 1: And for me, it starts with, the running back piece.
1:04:24
Speaker 1: So I've been, I've been studying a bunch of this
1:04:27
Speaker 1: this off season, but you know, Joe Brady was with
1:04:30
Speaker 1: the saints in 2017 and 2018 with Pete Carmichael, both
1:04:34
Speaker 1: of them under Sean Payton. I think it's been, you know,
1:04:37
Speaker 1: this has been regurgitated so much at this point. Now,
1:04:38
Speaker 1: Pete Carmichael, the offensive coordinator with the bills, you know,
1:04:41
Speaker 1: and it's like, okay, what does Pete Carmichael bring? Is
1:04:43
Speaker 1: he just a steady hand to help Brady with the
1:04:46
Speaker 1: offense and install stuff and day-to-day things? Because, you know,
1:04:50
Speaker 1: he was the hand of the King with Sean Payton.
1:04:51
Speaker 1: He knows how to do this role. it gives Brady
1:04:54
Speaker 1: a vet who he trusts and allows him to find
1:04:56
Speaker 1: his way as a head coach. And then it's like, okay,
1:04:58
Speaker 1: is it that? And what else does Pete Carmichael bring
1:05:00
Speaker 1: with him? And so for me, and I think a
1:05:02
Speaker 1: lot of other folks, it's like, okay, maybe it's some
1:05:04
Speaker 1: of that awesome Saints running back pass game that the
1:05:08
Speaker 1: Saints have had for years. If anybody watches football regularly,
1:05:12
Speaker 1: or if you've played fantasy football, I think you all know,
1:05:15
Speaker 1: you know, Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles and Alvin Kamara
1:05:19
Speaker 1: are And even like Mark Ingram and before that with
1:05:21
Speaker 1: Sean Payton, it was like Reggie Bush and even Deuce
1:05:23
Speaker 1: McAllister a little bit, like all these backs that caught
1:05:26
Speaker 1: the football. And I had a ton of clips the
1:05:30
Speaker 1: other day of stuff from the 2017 and 2018 season
1:05:38
Speaker 1: from the Saints. And granted, Mark Ingram is a very
1:05:41
Speaker 1: good player, former Heisman Trophy winner, Alvin Kamara, arguably the
1:05:46
Speaker 1: best contact balance of any like running back ever and prime,
1:05:49
Speaker 1: like rookie Alvin Kamara was an absolute monster, but the
1:05:53
Speaker 1: way they're getting the running backs involved, like they're going
1:05:56
Speaker 1: heavy and condensed and they're, you know, faking zone runs
1:06:00
Speaker 1: and gap runs and still getting it to the running
1:06:02
Speaker 1: backs out of the backfield and fooling the defense. They're
1:06:05
Speaker 1: going with pony personnel and sending somebody across the formation
1:06:08
Speaker 1: on a slide route, dumping it to Kamara, then faking
1:06:11
Speaker 1: it and dumping it to Kamara and spitting it back
1:06:12
Speaker 1: to Ingram. They're putting Alvin Kamara down. out wide is
1:06:15
Speaker 1: the number one and sending them vertical against safeties. They're
1:06:18
Speaker 1: motioning Camara into, you know, the number three and a
1:06:21
Speaker 1: trips look, and then sending him on a wheel route
1:06:24
Speaker 1: against linebackers and safety. And Camara is getting targeted like
1:06:27
Speaker 1: 20 air yards down the field. The whole point, their
1:06:31
Speaker 1: running back pass game was diverse. And in 2017 and 2018,
1:06:36
Speaker 1: the saints passes to their running backs. They were second
1:06:40
Speaker 1: in total passes to running backs in those two years
1:06:42
Speaker 1: with 337, they were third in yards per play. Fourth
1:06:45
Speaker 1: in EPA per play. Eighth in success rate. First in
1:06:48
Speaker 1: yards after catch. Second in explosive pass rate. Second in
1:06:53
Speaker 1: first downs game. If ever there was a game, exactly
1:06:57
Speaker 1: to your point, I'm going to touch on the run
1:06:58
Speaker 1: game in a minute. If any time there was an
1:07:02
Speaker 1: aspect to, hey, you know what? Is Pete Carmichael bringing
1:07:05
Speaker 1: any of that Saints run game or running back pass
1:07:07
Speaker 1: game stuff? Hey, is Joe Brady going to dip in
1:07:09
Speaker 1: any of that LSU, like running back pass game stuff
1:07:12
Speaker 1: that made everyone think Clyde Edwards Hilaire was a first-round pick?
1:07:15
Speaker 1: This is the game to do it because, again, we
1:07:18
Speaker 1: touched on it. Lassiter, sick. Stingley, sick. Petrie, sick. You
1:07:24
Speaker 1: know what's a good matchup? Yeah. I'll take the running
1:07:27
Speaker 1: backs against Henry Toto or even Al Shayer as a missile.
1:07:30
Speaker 1: You might be able to get him, create some leverage
1:07:32
Speaker 1: against him, win on a choice round against him, especially
1:07:35
Speaker 1: if it's straight-up man coverage or... Like I mentioned earlier,
1:07:39
Speaker 1: if you're getting these three-by-ones, the Texans are locking the
1:07:43
Speaker 1: backside of the formation. That means they're locking the solo
1:07:46
Speaker 1: wide receiver, but they're also locking that running back in one-on-one.
1:07:50
Speaker 1: And if it's that weak side linebacker, that means it's
1:07:52
Speaker 1: James Cook or Ty Johnson against Henry Toto more often
1:07:55
Speaker 1: than not. Toto is a heat-seeking missile. He's got some
1:07:59
Speaker 1: red-shell Mario Kart aspects to him. He will shoot the B.
1:08:02
Speaker 1: He will shoot the A. He will blow some stuff up.
1:08:04
Speaker 1: I will take James Cook and Ty Johnson in space
1:08:07
Speaker 1: against him Every single time. Especially considering the other options
1:08:11
Speaker 1: are testing Stingley and testing Lasseter and that whole other
1:08:14
Speaker 1: crew of guys. I really do think this is a
1:08:17
Speaker 1: game where the pass game has to funnel through Kincaid
1:08:22
Speaker 1: in between the numbers and then the running backs. A
1:08:25
Speaker 1: game where you're targeting James Cook six to eight times.
1:08:29
Speaker 1: You're getting Ty Johnson either in pass pro where he's
1:08:32
Speaker 1: legitimately good or yes, you're getting him out into the
1:08:35
Speaker 1: route distribution and Ty Johnson's getting like three to five
1:08:38
Speaker 1: or six, you know, targets in this game. Use the
1:08:41
Speaker 1: running backs as your primary options. It could be check downs,
1:08:44
Speaker 1: but I think it, give me some design run stuff
1:08:46
Speaker 1: or design pass game stuff. Give me, we know that
1:08:49
Speaker 1: space is going to be there. Choice routes. I don't
1:08:52
Speaker 1: care if it's an angle route. I don't care if
1:08:53
Speaker 1: you hit the flat. I don't care what it is.
1:08:55
Speaker 1: You got a true one-on-one with a two-way go against
1:08:57
Speaker 1: one of those backers, especially toe to toe. That should
1:09:00
Speaker 1: be advantage bills. Take that. And then tying into the
1:09:04
Speaker 1: run game piece, man, I, so overall the Texans run
1:09:08
Speaker 1: defense last year, third in EPA per rush, third and
1:09:11
Speaker 1: success rate, second and explosive runs allowed first and yards
1:09:14
Speaker 1: per rush, second and yards before contacts tied for seventh
1:09:17
Speaker 1: and yards after contact per rush. Second in EPA per
1:09:21
Speaker 1: rush for light boxes. First in success rate allowed in
1:09:26
Speaker 1: light boxes. And then someone might say, oh, but what
1:09:28
Speaker 1: were they with DVOA? Second against the run in DVOA.
1:09:33
Speaker 1: I tell you, bro, I filtered so many things. I
1:09:37
Speaker 1: was like, okay, like, where are they weak? What do
1:09:40
Speaker 1: they look like against 12 personnel, 13 personnel, 11, second down,
1:09:45
Speaker 1: first down, third downs, this kind of run, that kind
1:09:48
Speaker 1: of run. Nothing matters. Changing the filters does literally nothing.
1:09:54
Speaker 1: Nothing changes meaningfully if you change personnel, box count, anything.
1:09:59
Speaker 1: The only thing that changes is like, oh yeah, they
1:10:01
Speaker 1: go from second to fifth or third to seventh. It's like, okay,
1:10:05
Speaker 1: so they're still great at everything across the board. They
1:10:07
Speaker 1: literally don't have a vulnerability in that aspect. But like
1:10:10
Speaker 1: you alluded to, the Bills did find some success on
1:10:13
Speaker 1: the ground against them last year. They did have four
1:10:15
Speaker 1: explosive runs against them, which was third in week 12.
1:10:19
Speaker 1: And their explosive run rate was fourth in the league
1:10:22
Speaker 1: that week against the Texans. You nailed it with the
1:10:25
Speaker 1: yards per rush. It was second in week 12. They
1:10:27
Speaker 1: averaged six point yards of carry against the Texans. Granted,
1:10:30
Speaker 1: a bunch of it was James Cook busted off that what,
1:10:33
Speaker 1: like 45, 50 yard house call. Yeah. But they had
1:10:38
Speaker 1: a positive EPA per rush, which doesn't really happen against
1:10:40
Speaker 1: the Texans run defense. The success rate wasn't there, but
1:10:44
Speaker 1: you had some explosives and that can be enough. I
1:10:47
Speaker 1: don't think you're going to, you're not going to have
1:10:49
Speaker 1: a strong success rate day running the ball against the
1:10:52
Speaker 1: Texans defense. You're not going to hit 45, 50% rushing
1:10:55
Speaker 1: success rate. You're going to have to bang your head
1:10:57
Speaker 1: against the wall, one yards, two yards, three yards, but
1:11:01
Speaker 1: then you might be able to pop a 15 yarder
1:11:03
Speaker 1: or a 20 yarder. And if cook gets in space,
1:11:05
Speaker 1: the leading rusher in the league last year, which it's
1:11:08
Speaker 1: another annoying part of the Josh Allen discussion this whole
1:11:11
Speaker 1: off season is I feel like we forget that the
1:11:13
Speaker 1: bills run game is great. And James cook led the
1:11:15
Speaker 1: league in rushing last year and has risen to the
1:11:17
Speaker 1: status of like a top five at worst top seven
1:11:20
Speaker 1: running back in football. But so much of it, to
1:11:23
Speaker 1: your point comes down to those running backs, the run game,
1:11:26
Speaker 1: obviously tied to them, but them in the past game,
1:11:29
Speaker 1: it's got to start there. And then if you can
1:11:31
Speaker 1: get that run game going again, let's lean into all
1:11:34
Speaker 1: the things that all the hipsters like to talk about
1:11:36
Speaker 1: now under center and, you know, heavy personnel and, an
1:11:40
Speaker 1: under center play action, and we suck up the second
1:11:42
Speaker 1: level and hit something in the intermediate that will all
1:11:45
Speaker 1: work for Josh Allen and the bills. And if worst
1:11:47
Speaker 1: case scenario, you send some dudes downfield off of some
1:11:50
Speaker 1: under center play action, you've stretched the defense out. Hey, Josh,
1:11:53
Speaker 1: you probably got some space, go run and make something
1:11:55
Speaker 1: happen with your legs or run. Make sure you duck because, Oh,
1:11:58
Speaker 1: you know, this, uh, Al Shayer will literally try and
1:12:01
Speaker 1: spear your quarterback in the head. Um, that will happen. Uh,
1:12:04
Speaker 1: hashtag Trevor Lawrence. Uh, yeah, I, it, Most games, most weeks,
1:12:10
Speaker 1: the run game is going to matter a ton for
1:12:11
Speaker 1: the Bills. But this game especially, and then the running backs,
1:12:14
Speaker 1: like you said, and like I have highlighted in the past,
1:12:18
Speaker 1: I think it's an actual potential weakness and an advantage spot,
1:12:21
Speaker 1: even though the Texans were third in DVOA against running
1:12:27
Speaker 1: backs last year. But again, that's just everything. They were
1:12:30
Speaker 1: sixth in DVOA versus wide receiver ones last year. Second
1:12:33
Speaker 1: versus tight ends. Eleventh versus wide receiver twos. Third versus
1:12:36
Speaker 1: wide receiver threes. third verse running backs. There is no
1:12:40
Speaker 1: true weakness, but there are some opportunities to poke and
1:12:43
Speaker 1: prod and some areas that are better where, you know,
1:12:48
Speaker 1: I'd rather be slapped in the face than punched in
1:12:50
Speaker 1: the face or smashed in the face with a hammer. Like,
1:12:52
Speaker 1: and it's still not great to get slapped, but it's
1:12:54
Speaker 1: better than the alternative. And I think the bills could
1:12:57
Speaker 1: potentially have some wins there. And I'm also interested to
1:13:00
Speaker 1: know EJ speed this year. He's out. He was their
1:13:03
Speaker 1: third linebacker last year. If you can force the Texans
1:13:06
Speaker 1: out of nickel and into base, Who's the third linebacker?
1:13:09
Speaker 1: Is it going to be Wade Wattaz, who had a
1:13:11
Speaker 1: nice pick six this preseason? Clemson linebacker? Do you have
1:13:15
Speaker 1: an advantage with Hawes and Knox and maybe Kincaid, maybe Latu?
1:13:19
Speaker 1: I've even joked this comment here for tight ends. I've
1:13:22
Speaker 1: made the serious comment of go 14 personnel and split
1:13:26
Speaker 1: Dalton Kincaid out wide as your X receiver and then
1:13:29
Speaker 1: use your other three tight ends attached to the surface
1:13:32
Speaker 1: and just mash. But it starts there. I love that
1:13:35
Speaker 1: you made that point because obviously I had a lot
1:13:37
Speaker 1: of things to say about it.
1:13:38
Speaker 2: And I think your point, when we talk about getting
1:13:40
Speaker 2: the running backs into the passing game, getting them vertical,
1:13:43
Speaker 2: I think it also ties back into one of the
1:13:45
Speaker 2: most important parts of this game, which is Deion Dawkins
1:13:49
Speaker 2: and Spencer Brown against Will Anderson Jr. and Daniel Hunter.
1:13:53
Speaker 2: Because the Bills love going five out. That is their,
1:13:56
Speaker 2: they want to try and get the running backs involved
1:13:58
Speaker 2: in their passing game. That is part of why this
1:14:01
Speaker 2: entire ecosystem works. But you can't really do that if
1:14:05
Speaker 2: your tackles are getting their butts kicked.
1:14:08
Speaker 1: Can't push the ball downfield. Can't push it downfield if
1:14:11
Speaker 1: your O-line can't hold up and protect for three and
1:14:13
Speaker 1: a half seconds.
1:14:14
Speaker 2: Exactly. And so the offensive line has to be able
1:14:17
Speaker 2: to at least get to a stalemate against those two.
1:14:20
Speaker 2: If you can force this team, if you can force
1:14:23
Speaker 2: the Texans to, if you can stay out of having
1:14:28
Speaker 2: to leave your running back into protection, I think that's
1:14:31
Speaker 2: where they can start to win, is if you can
1:14:35
Speaker 2: get your running back out into the passing game. If
1:14:37
Speaker 2: you can get there, you have a good shot. You
1:14:40
Speaker 2: have a good chance of attacking this passing defense. But
1:14:43
Speaker 2: if you have to constantly leave your running back into protection,
1:14:46
Speaker 2: it gets weird because, again, where's the winner? Who's going
1:14:51
Speaker 2: to win in this situation? There's really not much you
1:14:54
Speaker 2: can do. So I'm curious on how the offensive line
1:14:59
Speaker 2: and what Joe Brady does to sort of lessen the
1:15:03
Speaker 2: worry for, like, You know, they do five out a lot.
1:15:07
Speaker 2: If they're hot, it's off of Josh Allen. Josh Allen's
1:15:10
Speaker 2: making up for any mistakes. But do you, I mean, yes,
1:15:14
Speaker 2: Josh Allen is one of the five best players in football.
1:15:17
Speaker 2: Do you want to take that risk against a team
1:15:20
Speaker 2: that has been known and has beaten the crap out
1:15:24
Speaker 2: of your tackles before and can do that? They can
1:15:28
Speaker 2: turn this game into a basically like pass rush teach
1:15:33
Speaker 2: tape game. Yeah. Do you want to let Josh Allen
1:15:36
Speaker 2: sort of play that chaos game? Because I mean, if
1:15:40
Speaker 2: you're looking for one way that you can attack this
1:15:43
Speaker 2: Texans defense, again, there's not a lot of stuff that
1:15:46
Speaker 2: they do poorly, but they did allow the most yards
1:15:50
Speaker 2: per scramble in the NFL.
1:15:52
Speaker 1: Oh, good pull.
1:15:53
Speaker 2: Two yards per scramble. But I also say that and say,
1:15:57
Speaker 2: there's also like, they gave up one 25 yard scramble
1:16:02
Speaker 2: against the Broncos and outside of that, the most yards
1:16:06
Speaker 2: they gave up be a scramble is 59 against the
1:16:10
Speaker 2: chiefs and Patrick Holmes, where that was the only way
1:16:13
Speaker 2: the chiefs could move the ball against the bills. Josh
1:16:16
Speaker 2: Allen scrambled three times for 18 yards. That's just like,
1:16:24
Speaker 2: that's not great. Like if you're living off of Josh Allen,
1:16:29
Speaker 2: helping us be right, even when we're wrong, it's, it's
1:16:32
Speaker 2: a tough world to live in because again, We talk
1:16:35
Speaker 2: about the Jimmys and Joes, but this team, this Texas team,
1:16:38
Speaker 2: closes space so quickly, which is why it's sort of
1:16:41
Speaker 2: like– it's also why this is such a fun matchup
1:16:46
Speaker 2: because the Bills passing game and the Bills offense is
1:16:48
Speaker 2: designed to attack space intermediate, get yards after the catch.
1:16:52
Speaker 2: But the Texans are fine with going like, if you
1:16:55
Speaker 2: want to take those three-yard quick game, if you want
1:16:58
Speaker 2: to take a crossing route for three yards, two yards, fine.
1:17:01
Speaker 2: We'll let you have that. Because you're not going to
1:17:04
Speaker 2: get anything past that. We're going to rally and we're
1:17:06
Speaker 2: going to hit you hard. And the next time you
1:17:08
Speaker 2: think about trying to run that crossing route, Jalen Petrie
1:17:11
Speaker 2: is going to be right there and you got to
1:17:12
Speaker 2: remember that. So I think that's such, again, another really
1:17:16
Speaker 2: fun layer is can Josh Allen affect the game via scrambling?
1:17:21
Speaker 2: And are you willing to go five out? Are you
1:17:24
Speaker 2: willing to live with Deion Dawkins and Spencer Brown on
1:17:26
Speaker 2: an island against Will Anderson Jr. and Daniil Hunter? Which
1:17:30
Speaker 2: if it were me, if I were Joe Brady, I
1:17:32
Speaker 2: wouldn't say like, honestly, you kind of have to. You
1:17:36
Speaker 2: kind of have to live in that world. Your highest
1:17:39
Speaker 2: paid players on the offensive side of the ball are
1:17:42
Speaker 2: the quarterback, the running back, and your two tackles. This
1:17:46
Speaker 2: is where the game is going to be won. This
1:17:48
Speaker 2: is why you pay those players a lot of money.
1:17:51
Speaker 2: So you kind of got to go five out. And
1:17:53
Speaker 2: if those guys lose, it's kind of a tip your
1:17:56
Speaker 2: cap to the defense because you threw your best shot.
1:18:00
Speaker 1: I love that point of I love that scramble pull
1:18:03
Speaker 1: and just that overall conversational point for you in general.
1:18:06
Speaker 1: Like there is, there is a world where Josh Allen
1:18:13
Speaker 1: goes super saying, and it's just a Josh Allen game.
1:18:17
Speaker 1: And it's like, oh man, like he scrambled for, you know,
1:18:20
Speaker 1: he ran for like 70 yards in this game and
1:18:22
Speaker 1: threw for like two 80 or two 90 and made
1:18:24
Speaker 1: a bunch of big plays with his legs in his arm.
1:18:26
Speaker 1: And that kind of, that can be enough. It's just
1:18:29
Speaker 1: such a hard world. when you have the rush that
1:18:31
Speaker 1: the Texans have, how good they are from a rush
1:18:34
Speaker 1: lane integrity standpoint, let alone the talent and the understanding
1:18:39
Speaker 1: and the one-on-one capability and how they just fit and
1:18:41
Speaker 1: funnel and they know. Especially now, I think the book,
1:18:46
Speaker 1: the book, I don't know. I don't want to say
1:18:47
Speaker 1: like is out on Josh, Josh Allen, but I think
1:18:49
Speaker 1: teams know how to rush Josh Allen to make him
1:18:52
Speaker 1: stay in the pocket. And they know like, if he
1:18:55
Speaker 1: gets out to his right, we kind of die a
1:18:58
Speaker 1: really painful death. And so let's keep them in. Let's
1:19:00
Speaker 1: force them left. We'll hem him in this way. And
1:19:04
Speaker 1: tying into that is knowing that, the bill is protection rules.
1:19:07
Speaker 1: Like you said, like the bills want to get five
1:19:09
Speaker 1: out into the route distribution, which means they're just leaving
1:19:11
Speaker 1: five in. And we've seen, this is even going back
1:19:15
Speaker 1: to 20. I'm always throwing off for like what year
1:19:17
Speaker 1: it is going back to 2024, where the bills got
1:19:22
Speaker 1: murked in Baltimore on that Sunday night. We've seen when
1:19:28
Speaker 1: the bills get into games, when they get in the
1:19:29
Speaker 1: third and known passing down in distances, their protection gets
1:19:33
Speaker 1: gamed up. And the two biggest examples are, the Ravens
1:19:37
Speaker 1: in 2024, that Monday night game against the Atlanta Falcons
1:19:40
Speaker 1: last year, where the Falcons, the Bills, for whatever reason,
1:19:43
Speaker 1: didn't want to run the ball until the second half.
1:19:45
Speaker 1: And it kept being third and, you know, known passing
1:19:48
Speaker 1: down in distance. And the Falcons were just generating three
1:19:51
Speaker 1: runners and attacking lanes and picking guys. And Allen was
1:19:56
Speaker 1: trying to figure out who was coming from where, and
1:19:58
Speaker 1: he was trying to avoid this guy. But the pocket
1:20:00
Speaker 1: is collapsing around him. The Texans can do that, but
1:20:04
Speaker 1: they don't have to bring a game. They don't have
1:20:06
Speaker 1: to bring five, as we've talked about. They'll just do
1:20:08
Speaker 1: it with four. So if the pocket is collapsing around
1:20:11
Speaker 1: you and the Texans still have numbers, it's such a
1:20:14
Speaker 1: tough world, but there's still a chance. Week one, Josh
1:20:18
Speaker 1: Allen is healthy and ready and raring to go. Maybe
1:20:21
Speaker 1: he gives Will Anderson a stiff arm to the face
1:20:23
Speaker 1: and is able to escape and get out. And maybe
1:20:26
Speaker 1: because Spencer Brown is healthy and Deion Dawkins is healthy,
1:20:29
Speaker 1: we're getting... that's such a fun aspect of this game
1:20:32
Speaker 1: because it's week one. And in theory, everybody's like as
1:20:35
Speaker 1: healthy as they're going to be kind of all year.
1:20:38
Speaker 1: It's good on good. And it's like, Oh, you know, it's,
1:20:41
Speaker 1: it's Anderson versus Brown, but Brown has one arm again.
1:20:44
Speaker 1: It's like, Nope. Brown is kind of banged up, but
1:20:46
Speaker 1: he should be fine. Like it's good on good. We're
1:20:48
Speaker 1: not missing. The Texans are missing these three starters. The
1:20:51
Speaker 1: bills are missing these three starters. It's like, well, whose
1:20:54
Speaker 1: backups are better? No, you got ones on ones. You
1:20:57
Speaker 1: got good on good. Bullets are live. I'm just, it's
1:21:02
Speaker 1: so funny because the Bills defense versus Texans offense conversation,
1:21:06
Speaker 1: I'm really just like, not not excited, but because like
1:21:11
Speaker 1: the Bills defense wasn't good in areas last year. Like
1:21:13
Speaker 1: if the Texans defense succeeds, I don't know if that
1:21:15
Speaker 1: means the Texans offense has fixed their stuff or the
1:21:18
Speaker 1: Bills defense is still problematic and vice versa. If the
1:21:21
Speaker 1: Bills run defense is good, I don't know if that
1:21:23
Speaker 1: means Jim Leonard fixed it or if it means the
1:21:25
Speaker 1: Texans offense still sucks. So the other side is just
1:21:29
Speaker 1: so intriguing because the Bills are an easy top five
1:21:31
Speaker 1: unit on offense. The Texans are arguably the best defense
1:21:35
Speaker 1: in football. At worst, number two. And so that side
1:21:38
Speaker 1: is just good on good. Premium positions. Kind of some scheme,
1:21:42
Speaker 1: but kind of you know what you're going to get.
1:21:44
Speaker 1: You know, it's funny, too, even talking about the Texans'
1:21:45
Speaker 1: coverage and how they run what they run. The Bills'
1:21:49
Speaker 1: offense is kind of the same. Like, hey, man, you're
1:21:50
Speaker 1: going to get duo and you're going to get mid-zone weak.
1:21:52
Speaker 1: We run it from pretty much the same personnel and
1:21:54
Speaker 1: the same alignment. Try and stop it. And just how
1:21:57
Speaker 1: the Texans are like, we run cover three and cover
1:21:59
Speaker 1: one in quarters. And then we rush four, try and
1:22:02
Speaker 1: beat our guys. And the Bills are kind of similar.
1:22:04
Speaker 1: And yeah, who are physicals? Who can mash who? Man,
1:22:09
Speaker 1: I can't believe this is a one o'clock game in
1:22:11
Speaker 1: week one. I really, like, I mean, I also.
1:22:15
Speaker 2: Think- This is a playoff game. Right. And aren't we
1:22:18
Speaker 2: past the- In the first game of the season. Right.
1:22:20
Speaker 1: At one o'clock, first game of the season. And aren't
1:22:22
Speaker 1: we past the point where Do we have to keep
1:22:25
Speaker 1: giving the NFC East like the Sunday night opener like
1:22:28
Speaker 1: year after year? We don't need to see Cowboys-Giants on
1:22:31
Speaker 1: Sunday night in week one. We don't. And I think
1:22:34
Speaker 1: the Cowboys will be good. I don't think the Giants
1:22:36
Speaker 1: are going to be. We don't need to see that.
1:22:38
Speaker 1: It just feels like they're doing this one a disservice.
1:22:41
Speaker 1: A Sunday 1 o'clock game for Texans-Bills, I just feel
1:22:44
Speaker 1: like it's so much bigger than that. Although I do
1:22:46
Speaker 1: love the ambiance and the atmosphere of a good Sunday
1:22:49
Speaker 1: 1 o'clock game. But this one needs to be the
1:22:52
Speaker 1: whole nation watching for both teams and what it looks
1:22:55
Speaker 1: like on both sides of the ball.
1:22:56
Speaker 2: This one feels like it has the most ramifications moving forward. Like,
1:23:02
Speaker 2: I know there's a lot of divisional games. Like, there's
1:23:05
Speaker 2: a lot of, like, I mean, the Chiefs are playing
1:23:07
Speaker 2: the Broncos.
1:23:08
Speaker 1: Yeah, maybe Chiefs-Broncos, maybe Rams-Niners. But that's also in Australia,
1:23:13
Speaker 1: so I'm, like, throwing that out the window.
1:23:15
Speaker 2: But when it comes to championship pecking order, And establishing
1:23:20
Speaker 2: who is, I hate to say it this early, but
1:23:23
Speaker 2: who's real and who's not. Like, this is a big,
1:23:27
Speaker 2: big test early for Jim Leonard. It's a big test
1:23:30
Speaker 2: for Joe Brady and how Joe Brady now, again, very
1:23:34
Speaker 2: underrated small point, but how Joe Brady manages keeping the
1:23:38
Speaker 2: offense afloat while also managing a game as a head coach. Like,
1:23:42
Speaker 2: this is hypothetically going to be a close game. We're
1:23:44
Speaker 2: going to find out who Joe Brady is as a
1:23:46
Speaker 2: head coach for the first time. So that's going to
1:23:49
Speaker 2: be another interesting point. I do want to go back
1:23:51
Speaker 2: to the five out real quick because I think the
1:23:54
Speaker 2: way the Texans attack protections is so fun because you
1:23:58
Speaker 2: have two guys who win in one, one B one situations,
1:24:02
Speaker 2: but you would never guess that will Anderson jr. Is
1:24:05
Speaker 2: the power player. Like the Neil Hunter is the finesse guy. Yeah.
1:24:09
Speaker 2: He is the, the funniest, the coolest thing about the
1:24:13
Speaker 2: Neil Hunter. I think he's the most unique pass rusher
1:24:15
Speaker 2: we've ever seen a thousand percent because he's he's built
1:24:19
Speaker 2: like an Avenger. But he also, like, he moves like
1:24:24
Speaker 2: a guy that's much smaller. Like, he'll pull out, like,
1:24:27
Speaker 2: double spins. I think there's a move that he had
1:24:31
Speaker 2: in 2024 against Panay Sewell where he, like, jab steps
1:24:37
Speaker 2: out jab steps in and spins back out yes i'm
1:24:40
Speaker 2: like a dude who's 6'6 270 should not be.
1:24:44
Speaker 1: Able he like he like euro steps him and then
1:24:47
Speaker 1: spins and he just it's just insane and then also
1:24:49
Speaker 1: pull off the fake spin and like yeah he shouldn't
1:24:52
Speaker 1: be able to move like that like a pterodactyl shouldn't
1:24:55
Speaker 1: move like that on the ground.
1:24:57
Speaker 2: So the way that they attack the protections is will
1:25:00
Speaker 2: anderson jr rushes from the low side he wins with
1:25:02
Speaker 2: power he's going through and neil hunter is comes from
1:25:06
Speaker 2: the high side, around the shoulder. So if you're going
1:25:09
Speaker 2: to find, again, with Josh Allen, keep him from going right.
1:25:14
Speaker 2: The way maybe you can do that is you have
1:25:17
Speaker 2: Will Anderson Jr. crush the pocket from the right. And
1:25:20
Speaker 2: if Josh Allen's going to scramble right, like, Daniil Hunter
1:25:24
Speaker 2: is going to go flying around the edge. And that's how, like,
1:25:28
Speaker 2: with Daniil Hunter, some of the metrics that you mentioned,
1:25:31
Speaker 2: Daniil Hunter is not the best or top 10 in
1:25:34
Speaker 2: pressure rate. But when he does get there, it's a sack.
1:25:38
Speaker 2: Like that's the thing where he's going to win. He's
1:25:41
Speaker 2: going to finish plays. William Harrison Jr. is incredible. He
1:25:45
Speaker 2: finishes plays and creates. But Daniil Hunter is sort of
1:25:50
Speaker 2: their finisher. He is there. If he gets close, he's
1:25:54
Speaker 2: getting to the ball or getting to the quarterback. So
1:25:57
Speaker 2: how Deion Dawkins goes about attacking a guy like Daniil
1:26:01
Speaker 2: Hunter and how Spencer Brown– Spencer Brown and Will Anderson Jr.
1:26:05
Speaker 2: feels like a real fun, like, who's going to headbutt
1:26:08
Speaker 2: each other? Who's going to be the last one to
1:26:10
Speaker 2: win the headbutt matchup? I do wonder with Deion Dawkins
1:26:15
Speaker 2: versus Daniil Hunter, who's going to win that one? Because
1:26:18
Speaker 2: both are very unique guys at their positions. How he
1:26:22
Speaker 2: goes about blocking Daniil Hunter is going to be really fun.
1:26:26
Speaker 1: I love that point. And I started thinking, like, I
1:26:31
Speaker 1: feel like Spencer Brown versus Will Anderson is, like, 2017
1:26:35
Speaker 1: New Japan, like, Shibata versus Ishii. Like, just... These dudes
1:26:40
Speaker 1: are gonna just get beat the hell out of each
1:26:41
Speaker 1: other for, like, 10 minutes, and it's just gonna be
1:26:44
Speaker 1: a sprint of physicality. I also, too, every time I
1:26:47
Speaker 1: think of Will Anderson, I think back to the, like,
1:26:50
Speaker 1: draft fatigue that year, and people like, you know, actually...
1:26:53
Speaker 1: Tyree Wilson is probably a higher like ceiling guy. And
1:26:57
Speaker 1: it was like, all Will Henderson does is speed to power.
1:27:00
Speaker 1: Like that can't work. And then he's just been running
1:27:03
Speaker 1: through dude's faces ever since. And then I remember seeing
1:27:06
Speaker 1: some clips early in Texans camp where he was pulling
1:27:10
Speaker 1: off like Daniil Hunter moves where he was like Euro
1:27:13
Speaker 1: stepping and using his feet more. And it was like,
1:27:17
Speaker 1: that's like the final infinity stone for the gauntlet. Like
1:27:19
Speaker 1: if he starts doing that stuff on top of just
1:27:22
Speaker 1: running through dude's faces and Oh man. And that's, I, I,
1:27:26
Speaker 1: I just love that point from you. Like, because Brown
1:27:28
Speaker 1: and Brown and Anderson.
1:27:30
Speaker 2: Yeah.
1:27:30
Speaker 1: I just feel like it's two dudes are going to
1:27:31
Speaker 1: beat the hell out of each other. And then Dawkins
1:27:33
Speaker 1: and Hunter is more like not in a soft way,
1:27:36
Speaker 1: but the two finesse kind of guys and who's going
1:27:38
Speaker 1: to beat who with their feet and their hand usage
1:27:41
Speaker 1: and who wins that.
1:27:42
Speaker 2: And it feels like watching like a real, like high
1:27:45
Speaker 2: level Taekwondo match. Yeah.
1:27:48
Speaker 1: Yeah.
1:27:49
Speaker 2: A whole lot of like real, like be water. type
1:27:53
Speaker 2: movements from both guys, whereas Spencer Brown and Will Anderson Jr.
1:27:58
Speaker 2: are going to try and kick each other's butt for
1:28:00
Speaker 2: 60 minutes. And where Clowney comes into all this, because, oh, yeah,
1:28:05
Speaker 2: they have Jadavia and Clowney and Logan Hall. I do wonder,
1:28:08
Speaker 2: do they lean more into stunts and pass rush games?
1:28:12
Speaker 2: Because you're fine with Deion Dawkins versus Daniel Hunter and
1:28:17
Speaker 2: Spencer Brown versus Will Anderson Jr., I'm a lot less
1:28:20
Speaker 2: fine with Alec Anderson versus Daniel Hunter and Osiris Torrance
1:28:25
Speaker 2: against Will Anderson Jr. I'm a lot, that's a lot
1:28:28
Speaker 2: less fun. And having Jadavion Clowney as he is one
1:28:33
Speaker 2: of the perfect just spinners and thrashers in football because he,
1:28:38
Speaker 2: for the longest, he deserves. not have bend. He's not
1:28:41
Speaker 2: a bendy player. But what he is, is he's going
1:28:44
Speaker 2: to earhole somebody. And that's how he wins. He won
1:28:48
Speaker 2: with crossing guys' faces and de-cleating a guard and freeing
1:28:53
Speaker 2: up somebody in a pass rush situation to come loop
1:28:56
Speaker 2: around him. And that, again, goes to the Josh Allen
1:28:59
Speaker 2: scramble right. One of the best ways to defend scramblers
1:29:03
Speaker 2: without having to devote blitzers or spies is you use stunts.
1:29:09
Speaker 2: And if you have an athletic defensive front, you can
1:29:11
Speaker 2: have a guy like Clowney or Will Anderson Jr. line
1:29:14
Speaker 2: up on the inside and earhole a guard. And that way,
1:29:18
Speaker 2: if Josh Allen and, say, Daniel Hunter wins off the
1:29:21
Speaker 2: left side and Josh Allen's sprinting right, Anderson or Clowney
1:29:25
Speaker 2: can stunt back over and they kind of get a
1:29:27
Speaker 2: free contain run. It's a very soft rush instead of like,
1:29:32
Speaker 2: we're using this stunt not to get a sack, but
1:29:34
Speaker 2: we're using a stunt to keep them in the pocket.
1:29:36
Speaker 2: So I'm curious again, the protections and it goes back
1:29:40
Speaker 2: to the five out and the five O's the communication
1:29:44
Speaker 2: and the biggest thing I, we have been going so
1:29:46
Speaker 2: long and I forgot to mention this until now. we
1:29:49
Speaker 2: are going to find out how much Aaron Cromer meant
1:29:51
Speaker 2: to this offense.
1:29:52
Speaker 1: Great call. Yeah.
1:29:53
Speaker 2: Because this is going to be the game where if
1:29:56
Speaker 2: you're going to five, Oh, if you're going to five
1:29:58
Speaker 2: out it, you gotta be communicating. And the communication aspect
1:30:02
Speaker 2: upfront is one of the things I'm a little worried
1:30:05
Speaker 2: about for the bills this season, just because losing Cromer
1:30:09
Speaker 2: is such a big piece of that. Yeah.
1:30:12
Speaker 1: That's a great call. We did a disservice to Cromer
1:30:14
Speaker 1: by waiting this long.
1:30:15
Speaker 2: Yeah.
1:30:15
Speaker 1: To mention him in it. And it, You know, Brown
1:30:18
Speaker 1: and Torrance have been, you know, they've been susceptible to
1:30:22
Speaker 1: two-man games before. You've got Alec Anderson. Yeah, do they just, like,
1:30:28
Speaker 1: kind of overload that side? Do they just put, like,
1:30:30
Speaker 1: Clowney and Hunter on the offense's left and they're just like, well,
1:30:34
Speaker 1: you know, are you going to send McGovern to that
1:30:36
Speaker 1: side and help out? Okay, no, then we got Alec
1:30:38
Speaker 1: Anderson one-on-one. We're going to see if he's ready for
1:30:40
Speaker 1: pass pro. And then if you do start to slide McGovern,
1:30:44
Speaker 1: Is it true, you know, man-on-man on that right side?
1:30:47
Speaker 1: Because then now you're susceptible to games with Rankins and
1:30:49
Speaker 1: Anderson or whoever's on that side with Anderson, Logan Hall,
1:30:52
Speaker 1: whatever you want to do. Yeah, so I love that point.
1:30:55
Speaker 1: I love the Cromer point. You know, I don't think
1:30:59
Speaker 1: we can sing Cromer's praises enough for what he did
1:31:02
Speaker 1: for this Bills offensive line. One of the best offensive
1:31:05
Speaker 1: line coaches in football, one of the best assistant coaches
1:31:07
Speaker 1: in all of football took this Bills O-line line raised
1:31:11
Speaker 1: the floors and ceilings of the group collectively but also
1:31:14
Speaker 1: the each individual players like the guy is the epitome
1:31:17
Speaker 1: of a teacher he teaches you based on who and
1:31:21
Speaker 1: what you are he doesn't have some blanket technique well
1:31:24
Speaker 1: everybody has to do it this way he understands oh
1:31:27
Speaker 1: you know you're six foot six and 310 and you're
1:31:30
Speaker 1: you know 6'2 and 320 your body types are different
1:31:33
Speaker 1: you move differently you have different traits I got to
1:31:36
Speaker 1: teach player a differently than player b and He was
1:31:39
Speaker 1: so good at that. And you had such a stabilizing
1:31:43
Speaker 1: force in that offensive line room. Not to mention, he
1:31:47
Speaker 1: was the game day run caller in conjunction with Joe Brady,
1:31:50
Speaker 1: which is a huge piece. You know, him being the
1:31:52
Speaker 1: guy who called that stuff. Yeah, we're going to find out, like,
1:31:55
Speaker 1: is Pat Meyer coming over from Pittsburgh? Is that enough?
1:31:58
Speaker 1: You know, is Austin Goon staying on with the Bills?
1:32:01
Speaker 1: He was kind of Cromer's right hand for the past
1:32:03
Speaker 1: couple years as he learned enough to kind of you know,
1:32:06
Speaker 1: stem the loss a little bit and stem that tide.
1:32:09
Speaker 1: And yeah, there's, you know, Cromer had such a, his
1:32:14
Speaker 1: fingerprints were all over this offense from the offensive line
1:32:17
Speaker 1: to the run game, to the protections, to the development,
1:32:20
Speaker 1: to the tight ends and their improvement in blocking and attaching. And,
1:32:25
Speaker 1: you know, in conjunction with Rob Boris, the Bill's tight
1:32:27
Speaker 1: ends coach, who's still there. Yeah, man, it's a, That's
1:32:31
Speaker 1: such a huge piece. The big thing for me, too,
1:32:33
Speaker 1: is always that run game aspect. Like, the best thing
1:32:35
Speaker 1: about the Bills offense, besides Josh Allen, for the past
1:32:38
Speaker 1: several years has been the run game. And the fact
1:32:40
Speaker 1: that Aaron Cromer is the guy who called the run
1:32:42
Speaker 1: game is a huge thing. Because if you're hanging your
1:32:44
Speaker 1: hat on something from last year, it's like, oh, the
1:32:46
Speaker 1: run game. And it's like, Joe Brady, it's like, no, no, no, no, no. Yeah,
1:32:50
Speaker 1: that run game was Aaron Cromer. And not only that,
1:32:53
Speaker 1: everything else for the offensive line, oh, yeah, it's, this
1:32:58
Speaker 1: could be a game where if things go sideways for you,
1:33:01
Speaker 1: if you're the bills, it's like, Oh, like, you know,
1:33:04
Speaker 1: if things go sideways for the Texans, it's more like
1:33:07
Speaker 1: CJ Stroud maybe does suck. And this is a problem
1:33:10
Speaker 1: at quarterback. And is this offense going to hold them back?
1:33:12
Speaker 1: If things go sideways for the bills, it's like, they
1:33:16
Speaker 1: shouldn't have hired the head coach they hired. And the
1:33:18
Speaker 1: offensive line is going to be a problem. And Aaron
1:33:19
Speaker 1: Cromer being gone as a problem. And the tickets are
1:33:22
Speaker 1: too expensive. And the stadium has bad sight lines and
1:33:24
Speaker 1: all the, everything just like compiles and it all just
1:33:26
Speaker 1: gets like bad out of nowhere.
1:33:29
Speaker 2: We're going to get some real, like, you know how
1:33:30
Speaker 2: they have in Jerry world. We're going to, Oh, it's
1:33:33
Speaker 2: the window in Jerry world. That's why everybody messes up
1:33:35
Speaker 2: for the Cowboys. Bring it some real unhinged, like a
1:33:39
Speaker 2: new stadium theories.
1:33:40
Speaker 1: Oh, a thousand percent.
1:33:41
Speaker 2: Yeah.
1:33:41
Speaker 1: It's going to come out of the woodwork. It's going to,
1:33:43
Speaker 1: it's going to reach like meme level jokes that'll last
1:33:46
Speaker 1: for years. If things go sideways for the bills this
1:33:48
Speaker 1: year and the stadium and everything.
1:33:50
Speaker 2: And yeah.
1:33:51
Speaker 1: And, uh, but man, they, those are a good team.
1:33:53
Speaker 1: The Texans are a good team. Both of these teams
1:33:55
Speaker 1: see themselves as Superbowl contenders and, definite like AFC potential representatives.
1:34:01
Speaker 1: And they're going to dance in week one. And we're
1:34:03
Speaker 1: going to find out what happens. JP, anything else that
1:34:06
Speaker 1: you want to mention, say about this game? Anything you
1:34:10
Speaker 1: got left in the chamber at all in any way?
1:34:13
Speaker 2: I'll keep it brief because this is one that I
1:34:17
Speaker 2: have gotten from you. It's the game script. If the
1:34:20
Speaker 2: Bills stay ahead of the flow, if you can stay
1:34:24
Speaker 2: ahead and lean a little bit on the run game,
1:34:26
Speaker 2: and force the Texans to actually play shotgun drop-back offense,
1:34:32
Speaker 2: you can turn this into a runaway game. You just
1:34:35
Speaker 2: can't because I don't think the Texans are there yet
1:34:37
Speaker 2: personnel-wise or in execution. I don't think they're going to
1:34:41
Speaker 2: be able to play shootouts. But if you can't move
1:34:45
Speaker 2: the ball and the Texans get into a situation where
1:34:47
Speaker 2: they go up early and you really start to get
1:34:50
Speaker 2: those pass rushers firing off the ball, like they– They
1:34:53
Speaker 2: play the pass on the way to the run, which
1:34:55
Speaker 2: makes the fact that they're so good against the run
1:34:57
Speaker 2: not make sense because that shouldn't work. But if they
1:35:01
Speaker 2: could just play the pass on the way to the pass,
1:35:03
Speaker 2: that just makes those guys even faster and even more dangerous.
1:35:09
Speaker 1: Oh, I love that point. Yeah, it's always like such
1:35:12
Speaker 1: a given for me that I don't even mention it anymore.
1:35:14
Speaker 1: And yeah, I forget it's in my blue sky handle,
1:35:16
Speaker 1: like the game script enthusiast aspect. I need to actually
1:35:19
Speaker 1: change that on my Twitter one too because it's such a,
1:35:22
Speaker 1: it matters so much in everything, like not just for
1:35:24
Speaker 1: the bills, but every single game, like game script is the,
1:35:27
Speaker 1: the first thing, the first time game script really got
1:35:30
Speaker 1: home to me was the Peyton Manning Colts because their
1:35:34
Speaker 1: defense usually was bad, but they had Freeney and Mathis
1:35:38
Speaker 1: and it'd be like, well, they put up so many
1:35:40
Speaker 1: points offensively. You have to throw the ball to stay
1:35:42
Speaker 1: in contention. And then Freeney and Mathis were like, we,
1:35:46
Speaker 1: you have to throw the ball to stay in contention.
1:35:48
Speaker 1: We're pinning our ears back. Here we go. And it
1:35:49
Speaker 1: was like, man, they don't have anything else on this defense.
1:35:52
Speaker 1: And it was like, well, they don't need to because
1:35:54
Speaker 1: they're already up 21 to three and you have to
1:35:55
Speaker 1: pass the ball. And here comes the game script. And
1:35:58
Speaker 1: these two teams, especially, yeah, like right for the bills too.
1:36:02
Speaker 1: If the bills can get up and all of a sudden, yeah,
1:36:04
Speaker 1: the Texans have to throw the ball. You're playing into
1:36:07
Speaker 1: Jim Leonard's hands and you're playing into the strength of
1:36:08
Speaker 1: the bills defense. And then vice versa. If, if the
1:36:13
Speaker 1: Texans can like run the ball and can kind of
1:36:15
Speaker 1: control things a little bit and if, or if they
1:36:17
Speaker 1: get up and then the bills are like, Oh, we
1:36:19
Speaker 1: have to pass the ball. Now you're playing, you're siloing
1:36:21
Speaker 1: yourself against arguably the best defensive football, man.
1:36:25
Speaker 2: Yeah.
1:36:25
Speaker 1: That's a, that's a great point. That's a great point. JP,
1:36:28
Speaker 1: you are sincerely one of my favorite guests. And next
1:36:32
Speaker 1: time I have you on, I'm literally going to count
1:36:34
Speaker 1: how many times you've been on the show. Cause I'm
1:36:37
Speaker 1: pretty sure. I think we're at maybe like eight now.
1:36:41
Speaker 1: like we're, we're getting closer to, we're closer to double
1:36:44
Speaker 1: digits than we are to five and your knowledge, your personality, um,
1:36:51
Speaker 1: how entertaining you are while combining that with your knowledge
1:36:54
Speaker 1: of the game. Um, and just how kind you are
1:36:56
Speaker 1: as a person. Like I, you're just, you're sincerely one
1:36:58
Speaker 1: of my favorite people to engage with on social and
1:37:01
Speaker 1: in this space and have on the show. So again,
1:37:04
Speaker 1: I appreciate you taking the time. I always enjoy these
1:37:08
Speaker 1: episodes a ton. Um, The floor is yours. Tell everybody,
1:37:11
Speaker 1: in case they don't know who you are, where they
1:37:13
Speaker 1: can find your work, what you do, anything and everything.
1:37:16
Speaker 1: Plug everything you got. The floor is yours.
1:37:18
Speaker 2: Absolutely. And thank you again for having me on. This
1:37:21
Speaker 2: is awesome. Anytime you invite me on is an automatic yes.
1:37:24
Speaker 2: I love talking ball with you anytime. But you can
1:37:28
Speaker 2: find my work at CBS Sports HQ, CBS Sports Network.
1:37:31
Speaker 2: I'll be primarily on TV and wherever you find streaming,
1:37:34
Speaker 2: CBS Sports, wherever you're at. I'll probably be there talking football, college, NFL,
1:37:39
Speaker 2: NFL draft. I'll be there. You can find my writing
1:37:42
Speaker 2: at cbssports.com. But just follow me on social media, Blue Sky, JPacosta32, Twitter,
1:37:49
Speaker 2: Acosta32 underscore JP. Just see what I'm doing, see where
1:37:52
Speaker 2: I'm going.
1:37:53
Speaker 1: Such a casual flex, like, yeah, I'm primarily on TV.
1:37:56
Speaker 2: No big deal.
1:37:57
Speaker 1: I'm just on TV.
1:37:58
Speaker 2: It still don't feel real. Like, they let me do TV. Yeah.
1:38:01
Speaker 1: I mean, no, you deserve it. You're a, yeah. Your
1:38:03
Speaker 1: rise has been so genuine. You, you know what you're doing.
1:38:05
Speaker 1: You put in honest work. There's no baiting or engagement baiting.
1:38:10
Speaker 1: Like you, you're creative with what you do. You do
1:38:12
Speaker 1: fun content, but also really good, like knowledgeable things that
1:38:16
Speaker 1: people can learn from. You deserve every ounce of, uh,
1:38:19
Speaker 1: success you can get. And yeah, great flex on.
1:38:21
Speaker 2: Yeah.
1:38:21
Speaker 1: You find me on TV all the time.
1:38:22
Speaker 2: Yeah.
1:38:22
Speaker 1: You are, one of the best. I will DM you
1:38:26
Speaker 1: after this to sing your praises and thank you a
1:38:28
Speaker 1: whole bunch. We kept it under two hours tonight. I'm
1:38:32
Speaker 1: really proud. I'm really proud of us. We did it.
1:38:34
Speaker 2: That's rare. In the ones where I've been on, we've
1:38:37
Speaker 2: been on for two hours. I feel like we could
1:38:39
Speaker 2: go even longer.
1:38:40
Speaker 1: We honestly could. Yeah, we a thousand percent could. I
1:38:42
Speaker 1: would say most of the time we do like two
1:38:44
Speaker 1: to like, like 2.15 is the median. We've gone two
1:38:47
Speaker 1: and a half hours. So, yeah, I'm proud. I think
1:38:49
Speaker 1: we got in all our stuff. I think we put
1:38:53
Speaker 1: in a really, like, five-star match here. But we got
1:38:56
Speaker 1: all our stuff in. We got our moves in. We
1:38:58
Speaker 1: got the hits. Yeah, you crushed it as always. I'll
1:39:01
Speaker 1: DM you after. Enjoy the rest of your Tuesday night.
1:39:04
Speaker 1: Enjoy Wednesday night football tomorrow, which is still a weird thing. Yeah,
1:39:08
Speaker 1: weird thing to say. But I'll see you in the
1:39:10
Speaker 1: social media-verse again. Thank you so much for taking the time.
1:39:13
Speaker 1: You're awesome. Enjoy the rest of your night. Enjoy your week.
1:39:15
Speaker 1: And I'll see you around.
1:39:16
Speaker 2: Absolutely. Thank you for having me.
1:39:18
Speaker 1: Later mr. JP Acosta sincerely one of my favorite guests
1:39:24
Speaker 1: one of the best in the space I hope you
1:39:27
Speaker 1: folks enjoyed his appearance he is worth a follow in
1:39:31
Speaker 1: every way shape and form yeah like you said I
1:39:34
Speaker 1: think so Twitter is Acosta 32 underscore J hold on
1:39:40
Speaker 1: hold on he said it already I want to make
1:39:42
Speaker 1: sure I get an even better yeah Twitter is at
1:39:44
Speaker 1: Acosta 32 underscore JP. So a C O S T
1:39:50
Speaker 1: a three, two underscore JP. And then on blue sky,
1:39:55
Speaker 1: he is a cost of 32 JP. No underscore there.
1:40:00
Speaker 2: Yeah.
1:40:00
Speaker 1: One of the best.
1:40:01
Speaker 2: Awesome.
1:40:02
Speaker 1: Doing big things. JP is awesome. Check out his work
1:40:05
Speaker 1: in every way, shape, and form. You know, what else
1:40:08
Speaker 1: is awesome? You guessed it. The best pizza in Buffalo,
1:40:12
Speaker 1: New York. That is one pie pizza. It's football week.
1:40:18
Speaker 1: Maybe you want to get some pizza and enjoy Patriots
1:40:21
Speaker 1: Seahawks tomorrow night. Maybe you want to get some pizza
1:40:23
Speaker 1: and enjoy Rams 49ers on Thursday. Maybe you want to
1:40:26
Speaker 1: get some pizza and enjoy some college football Thursday, Friday,
1:40:29
Speaker 1: or Saturday, or some Bills football on Sunday, or primetime
1:40:32
Speaker 1: stuff Sunday, whatever it is. One Pie Pizza is the
1:40:34
Speaker 1: best pizza in Buffalo. I don't say that because they
1:40:36
Speaker 1: sponsor the show. I'm not shilling out because they sponsor
1:40:39
Speaker 1: the show. They sponsor the show because I sincerely believe
1:40:42
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1:40:44
Speaker 1: if you live in Buffalo, if you're visiting Buffalo, get
1:40:47
Speaker 1: yourself some one pie pizza. You will not be disappointed.
1:40:52
Speaker 1: Sweet sauce, pie cup of char pepperoni, a whole bunch
1:40:55
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1:40:58
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1:41:02
Speaker 1: across the pizza. So you get good flavor in every bite.
1:41:04
Speaker 1: They make their own homemade blue cheese, which is phenomenal.
1:41:07
Speaker 1: They do a breakfast pizza, which is phenomenal. They have
1:41:10
Speaker 1: a catering division called elevated catering of Buffalo, um, That's
1:41:14
Speaker 1: awesome as well. I've had them do multiple stuff for
1:41:16
Speaker 1: me over the years. They do great things when it
1:41:21
Speaker 1: comes to food, and they're really good people on top
1:41:25
Speaker 1: of it. I always say they're really good people making
1:41:26
Speaker 1: really good food, partnering with the SPCA, partnering with Roswell
1:41:29
Speaker 1: to try and knock out cancer, the Alzheimer's Foundation, their
1:41:32
Speaker 1: Toys for Tots drive every fall and into Christmas season.
1:41:37
Speaker 1: They just do a lot of good work for the
1:41:38
Speaker 1: city and the community at large from a giving back standpoint.
1:41:41
Speaker 1: And that's on top of providing us with phenomenal food
1:41:45
Speaker 1: every single day. So get yourselves one pie pizza and
1:41:48
Speaker 1: you will not be disappointed. I hope you folks were
1:41:51
Speaker 1: not disappointed in this episode. I'm throwing up the banner.
1:41:53
Speaker 1: That says to those folks, because we're going to start
1:41:55
Speaker 1: to wind down here. If you enjoyed this episode, please, please, please.
1:41:57
Speaker 1: And thank you. Drop a like on this video. Likes
1:41:59
Speaker 1: are the lifeblood of these streams here on YouTube. So
1:42:03
Speaker 1: whether you're watching live now or watching post live later,
1:42:06
Speaker 1: Please drop a like. It goes a sincerely long way
1:42:09
Speaker 1: more than you might think it does. If you enjoyed
1:42:11
Speaker 1: this content, please drop a like. Turn on notifications for
1:42:15
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1:42:18
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1:42:20
Speaker 1: Please rate and review and subscribe to Disguise. the disguise
1:42:24
Speaker 1: coverage podcast on whatever audio platform or podcasting app you're
1:42:27
Speaker 1: listening to. If you want to drop a review, you know,
1:42:30
Speaker 1: a star rating and give feedback. That's also tremendously helpful
1:42:33
Speaker 1: as well. Word of mouth is always great. If you
1:42:35
Speaker 1: enjoyed this show, if you enjoyed me, if you enjoyed JP,
1:42:39
Speaker 1: if you like the bills, if you like just good
1:42:41
Speaker 1: football conversation and X's and O's and details, tell your
1:42:45
Speaker 1: family and friends and loved ones about this show. If
1:42:47
Speaker 1: you hated this show or you hate me, tell your enemies.
1:42:50
Speaker 1: about the show or me and try and ruin their
1:42:52
Speaker 1: day by making them tune in. Football season is upon us.
1:42:57
Speaker 1: We will see what the routine and the rhythm looks
1:42:59
Speaker 1: like going forward. For me here on the show, I
1:43:02
Speaker 1: think I'm going to be getting into more film breakdowns
1:43:06
Speaker 1: within disguise coverage, either in the Tuesday slot and or
1:43:10
Speaker 1: other days where I can fit it in trying to get,
1:43:13
Speaker 1: you know, some more shorter form content, like 20 to
1:43:16
Speaker 1: 30 minute video breakdowns on some stuff and then still
1:43:18
Speaker 1: doing the live episode on Tuesdays. focusing on higher level things,
1:43:24
Speaker 1: maybe not doing the matchup previews as much, but leaning
1:43:26
Speaker 1: into more of film breakdowns and the hows and whys
1:43:30
Speaker 1: and the what's behind everything we're seeing. So I'm excited
1:43:33
Speaker 1: for the content I got lined up this year for
1:43:35
Speaker 1: the season, and I hope you folks enjoy what we
1:43:38
Speaker 1: got cooking up for you guys here on the show.
1:43:40
Speaker 1: Thank you to everybody who tuned in live. Thank you
1:43:42
Speaker 1: to everyone who watched post-live, listened, whatever form or fashion
1:43:46
Speaker 1: your episode consumption comes in. I'm tremendously appreciative of it
1:43:49
Speaker 1: and extremely thankful for it. I hope you folks enjoyed
1:43:51
Speaker 1: this episode. If there's anything you had on your mind
1:43:54
Speaker 1: that we didn't get to in the show or I
1:43:55
Speaker 1: didn't bring up, drop it into the comments here on
1:43:57
Speaker 1: YouTube or get at me on Twitter at pro underscore
1:44:00
Speaker 1: underscore ant. That's pro two underscores A-N-T. Get at me
1:44:04
Speaker 1: on Blue Sky at pro ant. No underscores there, just P-R-O-A-N-T.
1:44:08
Speaker 1: If you're a Cover One insider, get at me in
1:44:10
Speaker 1: the Discord. And I hope you and your family and
1:44:13
Speaker 1: friends and loved ones are all doing well and staying safe.
1:44:16
Speaker 1: Be kind to one another. Take care of one another.
1:44:18
Speaker 1: I will see you when I see you. Enjoy the
1:44:20
Speaker 1: rest of your Tuesday. Enjoy your week. Godspeed. And as always,
1:44:26
Speaker 1: go Bills.