Latest / Best Betting Show Ever / NFL Playoffs, CFP National Championship, Parlay of the Day & More!

Transcript

NFL Playoffs, CFP National Championship, Parlay of the Day & More! · Best Betting Show Ever

0:00
Speaker 1: All right, welcome in best betting show ever here on
0:03
Speaker 1: this Mondays. We have one more wild Card game to
0:08
Speaker 1: go here tonight, Monday Night.
0:10
Speaker 2: Texans as Steelers.
0:12
Speaker 1: Learned a few things over the weekend about some of
0:15
Speaker 1: these teams, maybe another team or two looking for some
0:19
Speaker 1: new coaches there, merrill. But we got a parlay of
0:23
Speaker 1: the day.
0:23
Speaker 2: We got look.
0:24
Speaker 1: Aheads to divisional rounds, we got a national championship game
0:28
Speaker 1: coming up, a little something for everybody here. But let's start,
0:33
Speaker 1: of course, with what we got going on here tonight,
0:36
Speaker 1: because it's all about the Texans and the Steelers, the
0:39
Speaker 1: last wild card of Wildcard weekend. And call me crazy,
0:43
Speaker 1: but it lived up to its name because it was
0:46
Speaker 1: a wild weekend in the NFL.
0:50
Speaker 3: Yeah, it really was historical, and that's not an overstatement.
0:53
Speaker 3: In fact, before we even got to the fifth game,
0:55
Speaker 3: before the Sunday night game, the first four playoff games
0:58
Speaker 3: had already had more fourth quarterly changes in any entire
1:01
Speaker 3: fourth postseason in history. And you know, Joe, I saw
1:04
Speaker 3: that on the TV during the Eagle game. Yea, and
1:06
Speaker 3: it was like twelve of them in four games. I
1:08
Speaker 3: was like, I couldn't be reading this right. I went
1:10
Speaker 3: back and read it like three different times. I backed
1:12
Speaker 3: it up, backed, and I think it was twelve lead
1:15
Speaker 3: changes in those first four games. That's more than we'd
1:17
Speaker 3: had in any playoff line. And let's you know, do
1:19
Speaker 3: the math, we have what I think eleven play Yeah,
1:21
Speaker 3: this twelve teams would be eleven playoff games. That's how
1:24
Speaker 3: it's been. So if you some in game betting, probably
1:27
Speaker 3: was extremely profitable if you did the zigzag approach. Not
1:31
Speaker 3: as much in that New England game, as the Chargers
1:33
Speaker 3: are probably the one team that didn't really deserve at
1:35
Speaker 3: any point to cover this weekend. But yeah, it was
1:38
Speaker 3: a complete coin flip. Missed extra points left and right,
1:42
Speaker 3: once again affecting games. You know, going forward to the
1:44
Speaker 3: Jacksonville game, you know, not scoring early made a huge difference.
1:49
Speaker 3: It's wide open, not a surprise. I thought the playoffs
1:51
Speaker 3: were wide open. I will say this though, San Francisco
1:54
Speaker 3: beating Philly is huge because the Rams would have had
1:57
Speaker 3: to go to Seattle otherwise if it would been Eagles Bears. Yep,
2:01
Speaker 3: I've said coming into the postseason, I thought the Seahawks
2:04
Speaker 3: and Rams were the two best teams in the league. Obviously,
2:06
Speaker 3: LA looks sluggish at times against Carolina. I think Chicago's
2:10
Speaker 3: kind of a phony two seed, a very bad defensive
2:12
Speaker 3: team they barely won. I think Denver is a phony
2:15
Speaker 3: one seed. We'll see how far they get, you know,
2:17
Speaker 3: the next couple of weeks. I really do think if
2:20
Speaker 3: it's Seattle, LA next week in the NFC Championshi game
2:22
Speaker 3: May or a week from next week, that'll probably be
2:24
Speaker 3: the game to decide the Super Bowl champ.
2:27
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's gonna be very interesting.
2:29
Speaker 1: I mean, we've got obviously one more game slotted in
2:32
Speaker 1: to figure out what it's gonna be. For the most part, though,
2:36
Speaker 1: we've got lines up on that. You know, Seattle, San Francisco, Buffalo,
2:41
Speaker 1: Denver ready to go. We know the Rams, like you said,
2:44
Speaker 1: going to Chicago. Interesting. How I believe New England now
2:49
Speaker 1: is likely gonna is gonna take on the winner of
2:52
Speaker 1: this game tonight, which gives them a rest advantage. So it's, uh,
2:57
Speaker 1: it's gonna be fun. But we got to get past
2:59
Speaker 1: text and Steelers here Meryland. Right now, the market holding
3:03
Speaker 1: strong at what three, we're starting to see not a
3:07
Speaker 1: whole lot happening either. With the total thirty eight is
3:11
Speaker 1: what it looks like here pretty across the board. So
3:16
Speaker 1: Houston still getting some of the public love. But Pittsburgh
3:20
Speaker 1: I don't see it dropping under a field goal. So
3:23
Speaker 1: but we know the record of teams in wildcard rounds, right,
3:27
Speaker 1: If you don't think a team can win, don't be
3:30
Speaker 1: hoping they can cover anything, Like, just take the team
3:33
Speaker 1: who wins here. If you like Pittsburgh, they're likely got
3:37
Speaker 1: to win out right for you to get a cover
3:38
Speaker 1: in any way, shape or form.
3:40
Speaker 2: Anyway, Meryl here tonight exactly.
3:42
Speaker 3: I tell people that all the time, you don't take
3:44
Speaker 3: underdogs hoping they cover, especially when it's a single score.
3:47
Speaker 3: In fact, if you look at the NFL for decades,
3:50
Speaker 3: if you blindly pick the straight up winning and the
3:52
Speaker 3: spread is seven or less basically a single score game, yep,
3:55
Speaker 3: you're going to cover about eighty four percent of the
3:57
Speaker 3: time for decades now, which means means when teams cover
4:02
Speaker 3: as a seven point dog or less, they usually win
4:04
Speaker 3: the game outright. Which is why we always recommend sprinkling
4:07
Speaker 3: some on the money line if you're playing points spread underdogs,
4:09
Speaker 3: whether it's the NBA or the NFL, I do not
4:12
Speaker 3: recommend playing money line favorites. You know, if you're going
4:14
Speaker 3: to play this game, you lay the minus three and
4:16
Speaker 3: once again the same reason because there's only about a
4:19
Speaker 3: fifteen percent chance that the points brit comes into play,
4:22
Speaker 3: and it's even less now because the odds of Houston
4:24
Speaker 3: winning by one or two points is very now. Granted
4:27
Speaker 3: three you get the push, but either way you're getting
4:29
Speaker 3: a push, so it really doesn't change anything. So I
4:31
Speaker 3: do think you handicapped this as a straight up win situation,
4:34
Speaker 3: and home dogs do do well in the playoffs. You know,
4:36
Speaker 3: Mark Lawrence points this out all the time every year.
4:38
Speaker 3: I think going back to nineteen eighty he had a
4:40
Speaker 3: thirty five and fifteen. Coming into this season, we saw
4:43
Speaker 3: both Carolina and Chicago cover as dogs as home dogs,
4:47
Speaker 3: and then Jacksonville. You know, depending on when you played,
4:50
Speaker 3: it was plus one one and a half, but that
4:51
Speaker 3: was almost a pick them at times also, So yeah,
4:54
Speaker 3: I guess you could say they didn't cover, but that
4:55
Speaker 3: wasn't much of a home dog. So thirty seven and fifteen,
4:58
Speaker 3: thirty seven and sixteen, however you cut it now, does
5:01
Speaker 3: favor the Steelers here, and that is my concern with
5:04
Speaker 3: fading them. But then I want to have the better
5:06
Speaker 3: team in a playoff game. I want to have the
5:08
Speaker 3: better team in a straight up one situation, and that's Houston.
5:11
Speaker 3: First of all, they the best defense in the NFL statistically,
5:13
Speaker 3: points allowed and yards allowed, and a lot of other
5:16
Speaker 3: metrics you look at. They've been just a good defensive team.
5:18
Speaker 3: They got off to the zero to three straight up start,
5:20
Speaker 3: they've only lost two games since over the last three months,
5:23
Speaker 3: and the Steelers did not step up in class. Something
5:25
Speaker 3: else I'd like to look at in the postseason is
5:27
Speaker 3: how teams did against not just playoff teams, but quality
5:30
Speaker 3: teams in general. Let's just take playoff teams. Steelers only
5:33
Speaker 3: out gained one of the six playoff teams they played
5:35
Speaker 3: this year. They were out yarded in five of those
5:37
Speaker 3: six games by over one hundred yards on average. And
5:40
Speaker 3: the Texans, meanwhile, we're positive in those games as well.
5:43
Speaker 3: So I do think maybe there's a slight Aaron Rodgers
5:46
Speaker 3: edge experience wise. But Stroud's been in the postseason, He's
5:48
Speaker 3: played well. His numbers are similar to Rodgers this year,
5:51
Speaker 3: and we get the much better defense. If you're going
5:54
Speaker 3: to play it, I would lay it with Houston. Yes,
5:56
Speaker 3: that home dog angle concerns you to just you know.
5:58
Speaker 3: By the way, Jeff, you like a good conspiracy. Yep.
6:01
Speaker 3: I think they want Pittsburgh in this one. And here's
6:03
Speaker 3: all you need to know. The matchups are set because,
6:06
Speaker 3: like you said, the winner of this game plays at
6:08
Speaker 3: New England Sunday. Yet the networks are not announcing the
6:10
Speaker 3: start times until after tonight. Crazy. Now, what that tells
6:14
Speaker 3: me is if it's Pittsburgh, New England, they want to
6:16
Speaker 3: flex it into the Sunday night spot, Whereas if it's Houston,
6:19
Speaker 3: New England, it's going to be the early game Sunday.
6:21
Speaker 3: I would assume what what I mean? I thought I
6:23
Speaker 3: thought La Chicago would be the spotlight game, two of
6:26
Speaker 3: the biggest markets in the country, right, Nope, But I
6:28
Speaker 3: think I think Pittsburgh, New England is going to be
6:30
Speaker 3: the Sunday or the Sunday six thirty Eastern game. Otherwise
6:33
Speaker 3: it's Houston, New England at three. Yeah. And the betting
6:37
Speaker 3: rotations instint too, Joe. You know, I mean, like the
6:38
Speaker 3: don Best Rotation, Odds Logic Rotation has the New England
6:42
Speaker 3: game ahead of it. They don't have the start times.
6:44
Speaker 3: But Houston should win tonight, right, which means that should
6:46
Speaker 3: be the three o'clock and they've got San franc Seattle
6:49
Speaker 3: is the early game in the rotation Buffalo Denver that
6:51
Speaker 3: hasn't been announced yet either. I don't know. That's my
6:55
Speaker 3: guess as well, but it's it's interesting to me that
6:57
Speaker 3: the odds made that the league has not announced start
6:59
Speaker 3: times yet until the result tonight. Yeah, which tells me
7:02
Speaker 3: they're gonna they're gonna flip it. Right, of course they're
7:04
Speaker 3: gonna flip it.
7:04
Speaker 1: They're gonna wait to see and exactly who's playing who,
7:08
Speaker 1: and then they'll go ahead based upon what they think
7:11
Speaker 1: is gonna be the biggest moneymaker, and that's where they're
7:13
Speaker 1: going to give us. But either team will be out
7:16
Speaker 1: of rest disadvantage here against New England on Sunday, so
7:21
Speaker 1: we'll see exactly where the NFL decides to go. I'm
7:24
Speaker 1: having a hard time figuring out the point process here.
7:27
Speaker 2: I mean, it opened up one thirty nine and.
7:29
Speaker 1: A half, Merrill, we're down to thirty eight, and I
7:32
Speaker 1: know it seems like a real low number. Temperature around
7:35
Speaker 1: thirty degrees here tonight, possibly rain a little bit of
7:39
Speaker 1: win tip Welcome to Pittsburgh in January. But my concern
7:45
Speaker 1: with Houston is We've seen them struggle in perfect conditions
7:49
Speaker 1: inside offensively, I you know, what are we gonna get
7:53
Speaker 1: from them offensively? I just I'm trying to figure out
7:56
Speaker 1: how we get the forty points here, and I'm having
7:58
Speaker 1: a hard time getting there.
8:00
Speaker 3: Yeah, and you look at the team totals. We've got
8:02
Speaker 3: Houston at twenty and a half. Yeah, Pittsburgh seventeen and
8:05
Speaker 3: a half. That seventeen and a half is kind of tempting, right,
8:08
Speaker 3: because that's a key number, seventeen, And as I said earlier,
8:11
Speaker 3: Houston the number one defense in the NFL this year.
8:14
Speaker 3: So I definitely would not argue against a Steeler team
8:17
Speaker 3: total under seventeen and a half, especially since I kind
8:19
Speaker 3: of leaned towards Houston. But then the Texans at twenty
8:22
Speaker 3: and a half, at twenty one or more, yeah, you
8:24
Speaker 3: know you would start saying, hey, yea, they've struggled at
8:25
Speaker 3: times also, But yeah, I think that Steeler team total
8:29
Speaker 3: under seventeen and a half is intriguing. You've got a
8:32
Speaker 3: questionable offense against the best defense in the NFL. Thirty
8:35
Speaker 3: eight is a low number. As you said, it open
8:37
Speaker 3: thirty nine and a half, maybe a little bit of
8:39
Speaker 3: early week weather concerns is baked into that. Now we're
8:41
Speaker 3: starting to see some thirty eight and a half start
8:43
Speaker 3: to show DraftKings has that now, So I would expect
8:46
Speaker 3: some buyback maybe to be over by kickoff if weather
8:48
Speaker 3: is okay. Using all games this season, opponents played yardage
8:54
Speaker 3: points four points against. Even with the great Texan defense,
8:56
Speaker 3: I got a fair total of around forty one. I
9:00
Speaker 3: think it's a little bit deflated to the low.
9:02
Speaker 1: Side it is, and I would correlay whoever you think
9:06
Speaker 1: is gonna win to the team total over. I mean,
9:08
Speaker 1: if you're thinking Pittsburgh wins this game out right, which
9:11
Speaker 1: is if you're picking Pittsburgh, that's the way you should.
9:14
Speaker 2: Be looking, then they're getting over.
9:16
Speaker 1: So I mean, I think it's twenty wins this This
9:18
Speaker 1: is like twenty thirteen twenty you know, forth somewhere in
9:23
Speaker 1: that ballpark. I don't know that we're gonna get twenty
9:26
Speaker 1: one or more points in the air in the market.
9:28
Speaker 1: I also don't think there's a rush to get it,
9:30
Speaker 1: maryl because I don't think it's gonna go to thirty
9:32
Speaker 1: seven thirty seven and a half. So if you're looking
9:35
Speaker 1: to play the under, I don't see any rush in
9:38
Speaker 1: having to go to the window and get it. We'll
9:40
Speaker 1: see what we'll see what happens prior to kick. But
9:43
Speaker 1: I think thirty eight is probably the line in the sand.
9:46
Speaker 1: I don't see it's getting any lower than that, do you.
9:49
Speaker 3: I totally agree. DraftKings has moved to thirty eight and
9:51
Speaker 3: a half juice under and then one of the sharpest
9:54
Speaker 3: global books is thirty eight juice to the over right now.
9:56
Speaker 3: So I think you're exactly right. If you like the over,
9:58
Speaker 3: you probably grab the thirty eight now. Well, yep, if
10:01
Speaker 3: you like the under, you might get a thirty eight
10:02
Speaker 3: and a half. It might be more of them by kickoff,
10:04
Speaker 3: and there is one right now, They'll probably be more
10:05
Speaker 3: of them.
10:06
Speaker 2: Yeah, there will be.
10:07
Speaker 1: It's gonna be interesting here tonight. But a lot of
10:10
Speaker 1: anytime touchdown props out there, of course, there are you
10:15
Speaker 1: know CJ. Stroud, I know there's I in t props
10:18
Speaker 1: that seem to be really popular in this How many.
10:22
Speaker 2: Sacks does Aaron Rodgers take?
10:25
Speaker 3: You know?
10:25
Speaker 2: These are I don't know how many sacks.
10:28
Speaker 1: If listen, if Miles Garrett couldn't get to them and
10:31
Speaker 1: they had no way of stretching the field against the Browns.
10:35
Speaker 1: I don't know, are we one hundred percent sure that
10:38
Speaker 1: Houston's gonna get to him and make it a sack
10:41
Speaker 1: kind of night.
10:41
Speaker 2: It just feels like a guy who gets it out
10:43
Speaker 2: at what.
10:44
Speaker 1: Two and a half two and a half seconds, one
10:46
Speaker 1: of the fastest in the NFL this year. I don't
10:50
Speaker 1: know how many hits Aaron Rodgers is gonna take tonight.
10:53
Speaker 1: It just feels like it might be dink dunk, take
10:55
Speaker 1: a few shots down the field with metcalf and let
10:59
Speaker 1: the chips fall. He may, but I don't see Aaron
11:01
Speaker 1: Rodgers holding the ball very long tonight.
11:04
Speaker 3: Yeah. It sounds like he's one of the veteran greatest
11:07
Speaker 3: quarterbacks of all time and it's a playoff game, right Yeah.
11:09
Speaker 3: I mean it's like you can't imagine he's going to
11:10
Speaker 3: do something to hurt the cause. And I do think
11:14
Speaker 3: that correlates with maybe how you play some of the
11:15
Speaker 3: passing attacks for the Steelers, you know, And I mentioned
11:18
Speaker 3: this in the I had the under best bet on
11:20
Speaker 3: the under in the Chargers Patriots game for my clients.
11:22
Speaker 3: I gave that out in the free play video and
11:25
Speaker 3: in the video I also said I think it correlates
11:27
Speaker 3: to how you play some receiver and passing props. Look
11:30
Speaker 3: at the yardage props to the under, whether it's for
11:33
Speaker 3: Aaron Rodgers or any of the Steeler receivers, but be
11:35
Speaker 3: very careful with completion and reception props because a lot
11:39
Speaker 3: of it is almost like a semi run game. Like
11:41
Speaker 3: you said, a little quick dump offs and whatnot. You
11:43
Speaker 3: can really add up the receptions and the completions and
11:45
Speaker 3: even the attempts. So I think the yardage props in
11:48
Speaker 3: this one once again, I would look receiver props, maybe
11:51
Speaker 3: Aaron Rodgers passing yardage props under, but be very careful
11:54
Speaker 3: with completions or receptions anything like that because those could
11:57
Speaker 3: still add up. And if you look at the Steelers
11:59
Speaker 3: in recent weeks, I mean they've had very few good
12:01
Speaker 3: passing games. In fact, yeah, I cuckulate, like only one
12:04
Speaker 3: really good passing game in the last two or three months,
12:06
Speaker 3: and that was actually at Baltimore in that win, that
12:09
Speaker 3: high scoring back and forth win. But the Texans defense
12:12
Speaker 3: is at another level.
12:13
Speaker 1: Yeah there's and again Nico Collins took off last week.
12:17
Speaker 1: He'll be back in this game. Metcalf's prop by the way,
12:22
Speaker 1: receiving yards fifty six and a half fifty seven and
12:26
Speaker 1: a half.
12:27
Speaker 2: Here, he's the guy that can stretch the field.
12:30
Speaker 1: He's the one guy that that defense can't cheat and
12:34
Speaker 1: try to take the underneath stuff away because he'll burn you.
12:38
Speaker 1: I don't care if Stingley's on him, ahu wan. He's
12:40
Speaker 1: a guy that you got to be worried about on
12:42
Speaker 1: the back end. So, you know, do I see Aaron Rodgers?
12:46
Speaker 1: I think his longest pass completed pass was thirty three
12:50
Speaker 1: and a half or thirty four and a half yards.
12:52
Speaker 1: Do we see him going deep and completing one? Because
12:55
Speaker 1: it's either Metcalf or Austin I don't know who else
12:58
Speaker 1: it is.
12:58
Speaker 2: At that point.
13:00
Speaker 3: That's what makes you a little nervous of the prop.
13:01
Speaker 3: Like that also is if they're the underdog, which they are,
13:03
Speaker 3: if you think they're going to be losing the game
13:05
Speaker 3: in the second half, Yeah, you know, and you see
13:07
Speaker 3: that in all these games teams get that junk thirty
13:10
Speaker 3: or forty yard pass down the middle when the when
13:12
Speaker 3: the prevent defense leaves it open. My spidy senses tell
13:16
Speaker 3: me that would be the risk there. So once again
13:18
Speaker 3: that's going to correlate, as you know, to like how
13:20
Speaker 3: you think the game is going to play out if
13:22
Speaker 3: you're if you actually like but if you like Pittsburgh,
13:25
Speaker 3: they probably have a big play at some point also,
13:27
Speaker 3: so prop like that would make me a little nervous. Yep.
13:29
Speaker 1: And Gainwell has been fantastic for them out of the
13:33
Speaker 1: backfield of five and a half receptions. He's been one
13:35
Speaker 1: of the favorite targets of Aaron Rodgers here as of late,
13:39
Speaker 1: especially when Metcalf was suspended. So I'm sure he's going
13:44
Speaker 1: to get plenty enough opportunities to get some yards in
13:47
Speaker 1: this one here tonight. But should be a lot of
13:51
Speaker 1: fun to watch who advances and takes on New England.
13:54
Speaker 2: One way or the other.
13:56
Speaker 1: But when you look back, merrill at some of these
13:58
Speaker 1: games and Wildcard and what are some of the takeaways here,
14:04
Speaker 1: because I think you mentioned some of the record breaking stats,
14:07
Speaker 1: including the fact I think we had more games this
14:11
Speaker 1: week that were decided by a team scoring a touchdown
14:16
Speaker 1: on their final possession than we have had. And I
14:20
Speaker 1: think the history of the NFL, if I read it correctly,
14:23
Speaker 1: you know you had Buffalo, you got all of these teams,
14:27
Speaker 1: You got the Rams their last possession resulting in a touchdown,
14:31
Speaker 1: and it was good enough to win them the game.
14:33
Speaker 1: That's kind of crazy when you think about it, in
14:34
Speaker 1: a wildcard round.
14:36
Speaker 3: Yeah, so the first four games, we had twelve league
14:38
Speaker 3: changes in the fourth quarter. We've never had that many,
14:40
Speaker 3: and eleven playoff games combined. Crazy And then I think
14:43
Speaker 3: all four winners trailed with less than two minutes ago
14:46
Speaker 3: in all four of those games. So it's just crazy.
14:48
Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely nuts the kind of week.
14:50
Speaker 1: And and by the way, those hoping that Lafleur would
14:53
Speaker 1: be fired for the wonderful play calling with four minutes
14:58
Speaker 1: left to go in that game where he decided to
15:00
Speaker 1: call up three bombs for some reason, uh and stop
15:04
Speaker 1: the clock and just gave Chicago back the ball. Unfortunately,
15:07
Speaker 1: it looks like they're working on a deal for an extension,
15:11
Speaker 1: so that is happening with Green Bay right now. But
15:15
Speaker 1: I don't I mean a lot of people think McDermott
15:17
Speaker 1: saved his job Maryland. I don't think McDermott saved his
15:20
Speaker 1: his job.
15:21
Speaker 3: I mean, I don't think his job was in jeopardy.
15:25
Speaker 3: In jeopardy, I mean, and I think I think I mean, yeah,
15:28
Speaker 3: I said, the loser of the Baltimore Pittsburgh game was
15:30
Speaker 3: probably gonna get fired. And then on that I mean
15:32
Speaker 3: that kick may be very well made a difference in
15:34
Speaker 3: that game between Tomlin and Harball, but no, I mean
15:37
Speaker 3: I think McDermott this will be also I say about
15:39
Speaker 3: today too, Joe, like look at his Romani in the
15:41
Speaker 3: Super Bowl. If you think experience matters, yes, Like it's
15:46
Speaker 3: really like the Rams and the Bills. Who else is there?
15:51
Speaker 3: I mean the Seattle lineup hasn't had any experience, New
15:54
Speaker 3: England has, it's Chicago definitely has. In Denver, as I
15:56
Speaker 3: said earlier, I think they're a phony one seed. They don't.
16:00
Speaker 3: I mean maybe Pittsburgh. I guess if Aaron Robert II
16:02
Speaker 3: of they they're gonna go too far. Houston doesn't. So
16:05
Speaker 3: the only experienced team remaining is Buffalo, and they'd just
16:08
Speaker 3: be Jacksonville had no experience, and then even the Chargers.
16:11
Speaker 3: So it's really just the Bills. And then you look
16:12
Speaker 3: in the NFC, the Rams, I guess the forty nine ers,
16:15
Speaker 3: you could say the forty nine ers or the other
16:17
Speaker 3: experienced team, and the Eagles obviously would have been So
16:20
Speaker 3: if you think that matters, and historically speaking, I mean
16:23
Speaker 3: not to get to the Super Bowl, but to win
16:24
Speaker 3: the Super Bowl, it's usually a team that's got some
16:26
Speaker 3: kind of Super Bowl experience either they've lost there. It's
16:30
Speaker 3: like Rams forty nine ers versus the Bills. I mean,
16:32
Speaker 3: so if you want to, you know, do some future
16:34
Speaker 3: plays or some like you know, exact matchups and get
16:36
Speaker 3: a nice price, that wouldn't be the worst way to
16:38
Speaker 3: attack it. I still think Seattle and La are the
16:41
Speaker 3: two best teams. The Rams have a very tough road.
16:44
Speaker 3: You know, they barely be Caroline. They got to win
16:46
Speaker 3: in Chicago, then they're gonna have to win in Seattle.
16:48
Speaker 3: But you know, we saw them blow that game on
16:50
Speaker 3: Thursday night a few weeks ago. Seattle played them tough
16:52
Speaker 3: both times, but that could go either way. But you
16:55
Speaker 3: do almost wonder now that Buffalo got by Jacksonville, like
16:58
Speaker 3: if it's not starting to set up really well well,
17:00
Speaker 3: because if they win, they go to New England. New England,
17:04
Speaker 3: you don't have was twenty one nothing. They had a
17:06
Speaker 3: huge lead on him a few weeks ago, but the
17:07
Speaker 3: Bill still found a way to win it. Yep, that's
17:09
Speaker 3: another incredible stat the Josh Allen stad he did it
17:12
Speaker 3: again this week. Crazy was it like thirty thirty six.
17:15
Speaker 3: Now I think it was thirty five at the time,
17:17
Speaker 3: Like thirty six fourth quarter comebacks or too many it
17:20
Speaker 3: must be fourth quarter wins or when trailing in the fourth.
17:23
Speaker 3: That's really a remarkable stet. I mean, most guys aren't
17:26
Speaker 3: even in the situation to do that thirty six times.
17:29
Speaker 1: Nobody's better in December and January than what Josh Allen
17:32
Speaker 1: has been since two thousand. I mean, I told you, Meryl,
17:36
Speaker 1: we talked about it last week. The fact that they
17:38
Speaker 1: had been twelve playoff games since twenty twenty with Josh
17:43
Speaker 1: Allen and this was the first one actually outside of
17:47
Speaker 1: Orchard Park or Kansas City is crazy to me. But yeah,
17:51
Speaker 1: there he goes. They go to Jacksonville, they get it
17:53
Speaker 1: done in epic fashion. Now they get to go to
17:56
Speaker 1: Denver and we'll talk about these early numbers on the
18:00
Speaker 1: divisional round.
18:01
Speaker 2: But let's get to.
18:02
Speaker 1: A parlay of the day. It's not a huge card
18:06
Speaker 1: in the NBA, not a huge card in college basketball.
18:10
Speaker 1: We got one NFL game going on, Meryl. But if
18:13
Speaker 1: you were going to pick a leg here, where would
18:16
Speaker 1: you look here tonight?
18:17
Speaker 2: On the card?
18:18
Speaker 3: Making me dig deep here, because as we said, the
18:21
Speaker 3: NFL game could see it going both ways. The NBA
18:24
Speaker 3: board is thin, to say the least, and then the
18:26
Speaker 3: college basketball board is all extra games. Every one of
18:30
Speaker 3: them is an extra game, all six digit rotation numbers.
18:33
Speaker 3: I don't think I've ever seen that before, Joe, Like
18:35
Speaker 3: on a normal Monday, like a non holiday Monday, Yep, crazy, Yep.
18:39
Speaker 3: That kind of tells you what you're dealing with a
18:41
Speaker 3: few NBA games. Call my either, I'll tell you what
18:44
Speaker 3: I'll take the contrarian call. I did a free play
18:45
Speaker 3: video on this one, so I'll double dip. Gave this
18:47
Speaker 3: on a wager Talk today. But Jalen Brown's doubtful. The
18:50
Speaker 3: Celtics were going to be a nine point favorite. It's
18:52
Speaker 3: now just five and a half six Indiana. We talked
18:55
Speaker 3: about them on Friday. They finally got that one thousand win.
18:58
Speaker 3: They snapped the thirteen game losing streaking against Charlotte as
19:01
Speaker 3: we thought they might, and they've actually now won back
19:03
Speaker 3: to back games. They beat your Miami Heat as well
19:06
Speaker 3: on Saturday. But you know, we see this all the time,
19:09
Speaker 3: these shorthanded teams outperform like the Celtics. They're coming up
19:13
Speaker 3: for loss to San Antonio. This is a huge step
19:15
Speaker 3: down in class pacers coming off back to back straight
19:17
Speaker 3: up dog wins. It's actually a little bit of a
19:19
Speaker 3: flat spot instead of line laying nine with laid not
19:22
Speaker 3: five and a half. So I'll take a flyer with
19:24
Speaker 3: the shorthanded Boston Celtics minus five and a half. It's
19:26
Speaker 3: just an angle that keeps all working year after you were.
19:28
Speaker 3: It feels yucky even when I use it, but it
19:30
Speaker 3: just keeps winning more than it loses.
19:32
Speaker 2: I love that, all right. Well, if you're going contrarian,
19:35
Speaker 2: I'm going contrarian.
19:36
Speaker 1: I will take the points with Nichols stayed here tonight,
19:41
Speaker 1: taking on, of course, everybody's favorite McNee State, who is still,
19:47
Speaker 1: let's face it, the class of the Southland, right. They
19:50
Speaker 1: had a lot of success, getting a lot of publicity,
19:53
Speaker 1: a lot of headlines here over the last year, and
19:58
Speaker 1: they always continue because of that Meryl to get these
20:01
Speaker 1: ridiculous lines. And now, granted, Nickels State started what owen seven,
20:06
Speaker 1: but took on a gauntlet of teams they probably had
20:10
Speaker 1: no business ever playing or whatever gonna win. But they
20:13
Speaker 1: have ripped off eight wins in their last nine games.
20:17
Speaker 1: And call me crazy, I mean they've covered I believe
20:20
Speaker 1: three of the last four times they've played in this series.
20:23
Speaker 1: This is too many points. Fourteen Nickel State's not going
20:26
Speaker 1: to be intimidated here. I'll take the fourteen points McNee State. Yeah,
20:30
Speaker 1: they might win, but they win by more than two touchdowns.
20:34
Speaker 1: I'm not buying it, Meryl. I'll take the points here tonight.
20:36
Speaker 1: In a little Southland action.
20:38
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is a good example of what we talked about,
20:41
Speaker 3: like how you have to separate preseason, which is non
20:44
Speaker 3: conference versus the January February games. This is a team,
20:47
Speaker 3: like you said, started oh and seven, they played Kentucky,
20:50
Speaker 3: Oklahoma State, Creighton, Tulane, Murray State, Valparaso, and they have
20:55
Speaker 3: since gone eight and one straight up yeap, including seven
20:58
Speaker 3: to zero in this conference against like opponents. Yep. Yeah,
21:02
Speaker 3: it's a very The odds makers really struggle with games
21:05
Speaker 3: like this because it's that age old debate, you know,
21:07
Speaker 3: how much do you wait? You know, current form versus
21:10
Speaker 3: overall numbers. And I think this is an extreme example
21:13
Speaker 3: where you really have to look at apples to apples,
21:15
Speaker 3: which is conference play. Yep. By the way, these are
21:18
Speaker 3: two of the best turnover forcing teams in the country.
21:21
Speaker 3: They're both like top eleven percentage of turnovers for so
21:24
Speaker 3: this will be a back and forth game. McNeice does
21:27
Speaker 3: take better care of the ball, but I still think
21:30
Speaker 3: Nichols plays well enough. And yeah, you gotta be careful,
21:33
Speaker 3: like looking at all the overall games this year, because
21:35
Speaker 3: if you look at conference only stats, it's probably a
21:37
Speaker 3: single digit game.
21:38
Speaker 2: Yeah.
21:38
Speaker 1: And there by the way, they're all for five against
21:41
Speaker 1: the number. And just to go show you how much
21:43
Speaker 1: you know over value they are. With all the hype
21:46
Speaker 1: around this team, they were laying six and a half
21:49
Speaker 1: against Southeast Louisiana, didn't cover, didn't cover, the ten and
21:53
Speaker 1: a half against you know, Austin, just go to Lamar,
21:58
Speaker 1: didn't cover. They just keep giving these absurd numbers to
22:01
Speaker 1: this team and they yeah, they win the game, but
22:04
Speaker 1: they ain't covering by that many. So I'll take the
22:07
Speaker 1: fourteen here tonight with Nickel State against mcneese's State. Now,
22:13
Speaker 1: a lot of people having a hard time merrow with
22:15
Speaker 1: the Buffalo Bills being a favorite here on the road
22:19
Speaker 1: against Denver, but it feels like, now, listen, they didn't
22:24
Speaker 1: go off the favorite. I mean there was a ton
22:26
Speaker 1: of Jacksonville late money which pushed them to minus two
22:30
Speaker 1: even minus two and a half Jacksonville. So ironically enough,
22:33
Speaker 1: the public love Buffalo all week, but they closed the
22:37
Speaker 1: dog here by the time that game kicked off in
22:39
Speaker 1: Jacksonville yesterday. So are we looking at the same thing
22:43
Speaker 1: possibly happening here.
22:46
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't know. I mean, it's what people make
22:48
Speaker 3: of that Buffalo win. If they feel as impressive they're
22:51
Speaker 3: down with a minute to go in that game, you know,
22:52
Speaker 3: they get the what I think should be illegal offensive
22:55
Speaker 3: lineman carrying the quarterback ten yards to the goal line.
22:58
Speaker 3: I mean, Andy Lane and Dan Alexander and Witch Talk
23:02
Speaker 3: today did not understand why it was upset about there. Now,
23:04
Speaker 3: Granny I had Jacksonville. Maybe that's why I was upset.
23:07
Speaker 3: It cost me a three, cost me a three and
23:08
Speaker 3: o NFL sweep, a four and oh sweep with NBA
23:10
Speaker 3: and NFL and Sunday, so I went three and one instead.
23:12
Speaker 3: But it just looks weird to me, And I know
23:14
Speaker 3: when I was playing, I still don't think you could
23:16
Speaker 3: do that in high school Like that just seems like
23:18
Speaker 3: a safety issue. So the rule probably is different, But
23:20
Speaker 3: I didn't think back in the eighties and nineties you
23:22
Speaker 3: could do that in the NFL either. I did not
23:23
Speaker 3: think you could push somebody, and that was changed. I
23:26
Speaker 3: don't know, it looked like rugby. I'm already devising ways
23:29
Speaker 3: that we could take like a three foot one guy
23:30
Speaker 3: when I'm not using him in my basis leaded Baseball
23:33
Speaker 3: World Series game for the automatic walk of the plate,
23:35
Speaker 3: we just take him and throw him over the line
23:37
Speaker 3: of scrimmage into the end zone. I don't understand. Is
23:39
Speaker 3: that an illegal forward pass if he's holding the ball.
23:43
Speaker 3: I don't see a problem with it. Yeah, but I
23:45
Speaker 3: think there's a lot of angles here we could use.
23:48
Speaker 3: So Yeah, but that's why I would saying too, like
23:50
Speaker 3: Jacksonville probably technically wasn't a home dog, you know, to
23:53
Speaker 3: qualifying that thirty seven and fifteen angle. I'm not surprised
23:57
Speaker 3: though Denver is a phony one seed. As I said,
24:00
Speaker 3: I'm not sure Buffalo is not phony. Also, I actually
24:03
Speaker 3: think Jacksonville was better than Buffalo and Denver this season. Defensively,
24:07
Speaker 3: both teams are much better than Buffalo. The difference is
24:10
Speaker 3: Jacksonville had a good offense, Denver does not not. You know. Also,
24:14
Speaker 3: you see recreational people and fans say, oh, winning is
24:17
Speaker 3: all that counts and that's bull And you know that, Joe,
24:19
Speaker 3: because you know what The point spread is based on
24:20
Speaker 3: margin of victory and schedule strength. It's that simple. The
24:23
Speaker 3: point spread really isn't it's some magical formulas. It's what
24:26
Speaker 3: you win by factory and opponents played and Denver, game
24:30
Speaker 3: after game this year had one margin wins. They showed
24:33
Speaker 3: the only team that had had more. They broke the record,
24:35
Speaker 3: which was Kansas City last year. Yeah, and we saw
24:38
Speaker 3: how flat Kansas City turned out to be in the
24:40
Speaker 3: Super Bowl and how bad they turned out to be
24:41
Speaker 3: this year. Minnesota Vikings were one of those teams that
24:44
Speaker 3: had near record a few years ago one margin wins.
24:47
Speaker 3: They've regressed big time. So it is an indication that
24:51
Speaker 3: a team maybe is not as good as a record.
24:53
Speaker 3: And you look at New England meanwhile, they do probably
24:55
Speaker 3: think overall they're the better team.
24:57
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's it's going to be interesting to find on
25:00
Speaker 1: the line movement in that one. We did see, of course,
25:03
Speaker 1: uh seven and a half's open up with San Francisco
25:06
Speaker 1: and Seattle Merril and it looks like sevens now.
25:09
Speaker 2: It looks like it's come back.
25:10
Speaker 1: But I don't think we're ever gonna get under a
25:13
Speaker 1: touchdown in this one.
25:15
Speaker 2: Here to you.
25:17
Speaker 3: So I had Seattle a couple of weeks ago as
25:18
Speaker 3: a strong best bet as a you know, one and
25:20
Speaker 3: a half point road favorite. It went up to two
25:22
Speaker 3: and a half. The public was all over San Francisco.
25:24
Speaker 3: They made my fad the public video back in week eighteen.
25:27
Speaker 3: It was a public dog. The sharp money was on Seattle,
25:30
Speaker 3: including me. It was the best bet for my clients.
25:32
Speaker 3: It was in the free play video. So I liked
25:34
Speaker 3: Seattle in that game. But San Francisco is still a
25:37
Speaker 3: game away from being the number one seed. You know,
25:39
Speaker 3: so everyone and everyone was fading them. Last week it
25:41
Speaker 3: went from three and a half to six. They beat
25:43
Speaker 3: Philly outright. Seattle's rested and will also see how the
25:47
Speaker 3: rest effects these two teams. I think Seattle's ad a
25:48
Speaker 3: bigger risk, by the way, for not coming out of
25:50
Speaker 3: the buy well because they're more of an offensive team.
25:52
Speaker 3: It's not gonna hurt Denver as much because Denver's more
25:55
Speaker 3: defensive base. They're not an explosive offense. They had the
25:58
Speaker 3: thin air and altitude as well, so I think Seattle's
26:01
Speaker 3: actually a dicier spot as the once. Even though they're
26:03
Speaker 3: a better team. I just don't feel like there's seven
26:05
Speaker 3: and a half points better than San Francisco. You said
26:08
Speaker 3: it has come down to seven, though, we'll see where
26:10
Speaker 3: it settles. That's probably most likely spot. I know a
26:13
Speaker 3: lot of sports books are kind of juice teasers, too
26:15
Speaker 3: much to play, but Dinver plus seven and a half
26:17
Speaker 3: Seattle minus one and a half looks like a really
26:19
Speaker 3: good six point teaser. Though on Saturday, if you want
26:21
Speaker 3: to tie it up for some action.
26:23
Speaker 2: It does.
26:23
Speaker 1: And maybe no, no more public action and public team.
26:29
Speaker 2: And we talked to Art last week here, Meryl.
26:32
Speaker 1: Then the National Championship game and the Indiana Hoosiers, who
26:36
Speaker 1: are now I am seeing nines popping up in the
26:41
Speaker 1: marketplace as the tickets and the money continue to.
26:45
Speaker 2: Roll in on Indiana.
26:47
Speaker 1: And I've been saying, I just told Andy on wager
26:50
Speaker 1: Talk today, listen, if you like Miami, there is no rush.
26:54
Speaker 2: To bet them out.
26:55
Speaker 1: Could let the public do and air thing and let
26:57
Speaker 1: the money come rolling in. We'll see how high this
27:00
Speaker 1: line can get, Meryll. But there is no doubt they
27:04
Speaker 1: are betting this one like they bet the Eagles against
27:07
Speaker 1: forty nine ers. You'd be hard pressed to find anybody
27:10
Speaker 1: running tho the window with a Miami bet because it
27:13
Speaker 1: appears to be all Indiana at this point.
27:17
Speaker 3: Yeah. I had a strong best bet on Indiana for
27:19
Speaker 3: my clients last Friday night, and as I'm watching it,
27:21
Speaker 3: you know, I'm like, this is nice, but unfortunately it's
27:24
Speaker 3: taken away any value I'm gonna have with playing them
27:26
Speaker 3: in the championship game. Because you and I talked about
27:29
Speaker 3: the advanced line of both FanDuel and DraftKings bettable numbers
27:32
Speaker 3: last Friday as we did this show was five and
27:34
Speaker 3: a half. That was a betable line. Right as the
27:38
Speaker 3: game ended, I pulled them up to see where they
27:39
Speaker 3: would be. I was like, obviously it's gonna be higher,
27:42
Speaker 3: Like where they have to price you to get me
27:43
Speaker 3: less interested. I was like, well, would have to be
27:45
Speaker 3: seven and a half or more. You'd have to get
27:46
Speaker 3: over that key number of seven. And when I pulled
27:48
Speaker 3: it up Friday night, it was with about a minute
27:50
Speaker 3: to go in the game, it was seven and a
27:51
Speaker 3: half at both spots, and all the other worldwide books
27:54
Speaker 3: were opening seven and a half. I was like, that
27:56
Speaker 3: makes a lot of sense. Now it's eight and a half.
27:58
Speaker 3: As you said, there's some nines even to show. But
28:02
Speaker 3: Indiana is a better team. They're an explosive team on
28:04
Speaker 3: both sides of the ball. They're the better team on
28:06
Speaker 3: both sides of the ball. Now, Miami does have a
28:07
Speaker 3: slight home edge here, we'll see how much that matters.
28:10
Speaker 3: We don't tease college football normally, but with a total
28:14
Speaker 3: of forty nine and eight and a half, Indiana is
28:16
Speaker 3: actually in a good teaser spot once again. Also, so
28:19
Speaker 3: a lot of games here catch my eye for teasers.
28:21
Speaker 3: I mean, Seattle down to one and a half, yep,
28:26
Speaker 3: the Nuggets, the bronc goes up to seven and a half,
28:29
Speaker 3: you know, good defensive team at home against the Bills
28:31
Speaker 3: who are on a great defensive team, and then Indiana
28:34
Speaker 3: down to two and a half is a basic straight
28:35
Speaker 3: up win situation. So a lot of options. And you know,
28:39
Speaker 3: sportsbooks don't give you great odds on teasers anymore, but
28:41
Speaker 3: some of them have. It tremendously changed the three team teasers,
28:45
Speaker 3: so you could round robin those into twos, or you
28:47
Speaker 3: could actually just do a three teamer and have a
28:49
Speaker 3: lot of fun with it. I like those three teaser options.
28:52
Speaker 1: Though, I'll tell you it is for a line that
28:55
Speaker 1: continues to rise. The totals not moving. It looks like
28:58
Speaker 1: we got a ton of tickets on the over with
29:01
Speaker 1: the Hurricanes and the Hoosiers. But there's enough under money
29:05
Speaker 1: here that's not moving it. It's locked in at forty
29:08
Speaker 1: eight and a half, so it'll be interesting to see the.
29:11
Speaker 2: Path of these lines.
29:12
Speaker 1: We got a week before this game is played, but
29:15
Speaker 1: so far it's been all Indiana money in the marketplace
29:20
Speaker 1: at this point. All right, we got six games in
29:23
Speaker 1: the NBA, Meryl, handful of games in the college basketball ranks.
29:27
Speaker 1: We'll run through a couple for you guys. But before
29:31
Speaker 1: we do, it is, of course time for some business.
29:36
Speaker 1: And Merrill loves this picture of the pres here, so
29:40
Speaker 1: you start us off. Meryl, tell us what you got
29:42
Speaker 1: rolling over at wager talk dot com.
29:45
Speaker 3: Meant to mention this on wager Talk today. You'll appreciate it. Joe,
29:47
Speaker 3: So I'm flipping around. I had the charge of Patriot
29:49
Speaker 3: game home, but that was a pretty boring game last night,
29:52
Speaker 3: so I'm flipping around during commercials. Princess Bride is on
29:54
Speaker 3: the CW network, so I'll watch some of that, and
29:57
Speaker 3: then the Jerk is on one of the movie channels.
30:00
Speaker 3: And then right after the jerk was Airplane, which is
30:02
Speaker 3: one of the three greatest comedies of all time. And
30:04
Speaker 3: then I closed it off going to bed last night
30:05
Speaker 3: with some trading places which I came across again. But
30:08
Speaker 3: in Airplane, the disco scene, he goes poo, he shoots
30:11
Speaker 3: the bullets out exactly. So he just made me think
30:14
Speaker 3: of watching Airplane last night when I see the pres
30:16
Speaker 3: doing that. Anyway, I digress. Anyway, I'm trying to avoid
30:22
Speaker 3: talking about this NBA or college The disco scene right there,
30:27
Speaker 3: and then right after that is when he was teaching
30:28
Speaker 3: the African tribe to play basketball, and he developed the
30:31
Speaker 3: drinking problem and takes the gatorade, pours it in the
30:33
Speaker 3: cup and splashes it right over his face. Soon after
30:37
Speaker 3: is when I developed a drinking problem. Such a great movie.
30:43
Speaker 3: You need to find somebody that can find this Airplane
30:45
Speaker 3: and he didn't have fish for dinner. That's maybe my
30:47
Speaker 3: great and the greatest sign of all in there. Oh
30:49
Speaker 3: so great. Oh anyway, not a lot in the NBA
30:52
Speaker 3: college shoops tonight. But as you know, I always post
30:54
Speaker 3: a free play on my page, So go to my
30:55
Speaker 3: page every day get the bonus free play with analysis.
30:58
Speaker 3: It's truly the last Cup. From my best bet card,
31:01
Speaker 3: Steve merrillwager talk dot com. You get there, quicker, WT
31:04
Speaker 3: dot buzz, slash sm and I'm doing every single NFL
31:07
Speaker 3: playoff game. I've got the free video up a deep
31:09
Speaker 3: dive into the Texans Steelers game tonight here on wager
31:12
Speaker 3: Talk TV, and I'll have all four games for this
31:14
Speaker 3: weekend as well as click subscribe click the belt for
31:17
Speaker 3: instant alerts. Thumbs up. Like these shows and videos in
31:20
Speaker 3: a positive comment below, because we read the comments, we
31:22
Speaker 3: apply back here on wager Talk TV.
31:24
Speaker 2: Great stuff.
31:25
Speaker 1: All right, we are lockloaded ready to go tonight in
31:27
Speaker 1: College Basketball one NBA, and we are ready to roll
31:31
Speaker 1: in this game tonight between Pittsburgh and Houston, all available
31:36
Speaker 1: over at wager talk dot com. But let's talk about
31:39
Speaker 1: these horrific NBA games that we do going on tonight.
31:44
Speaker 1: The game that interested me the most merrill was the
31:46
Speaker 1: game that we got a little movement overnight, as the
31:51
Speaker 1: Clippers were a six and a half point favorite, six
31:55
Speaker 1: point favorite overnight. Woke up this morning and now all
31:59
Speaker 1: of a sud on this down to four four and
32:01
Speaker 1: a half. I haven't seen anybody listed is out yet,
32:05
Speaker 1: but the you know, Charlotte's coming off a one hundred
32:07
Speaker 1: and fifty.
32:08
Speaker 2: Point beatdown of the Jazz.
32:10
Speaker 1: I find it interesting Clippers at home have been playing
32:14
Speaker 1: obviously their best basketball. A lot of love for Charlotte
32:18
Speaker 1: in the market overnight here.
32:21
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think some of it might just be that
32:23
Speaker 3: Charlotte's kind of been a play on team here in
32:25
Speaker 3: recent weeks. You know, obviously a young team, as I
32:28
Speaker 3: told you, I've seen them play this year. Bell was
32:29
Speaker 3: sitting out of that game, but Kannopo had over thirty
32:31
Speaker 3: against the Jazz the game I went to back early November.
32:35
Speaker 3: So there's a little bit of energy with that squad.
32:37
Speaker 3: And as we know, with load management, right we never
32:39
Speaker 3: know who's playing who's not. One thing you know with
32:41
Speaker 3: the bad teams is that they don't have everybody the
32:44
Speaker 3: load management because they're not worried about the postseason. They
32:46
Speaker 3: don't have a lot of star power. So we have
32:48
Speaker 3: been getting some good efforts from Charlotte here in recent weeks,
32:51
Speaker 3: and the points spreads have shown that as well. This
32:52
Speaker 3: team is now six and one against the spread the
32:55
Speaker 3: last seven, and going back further, they're ten and two
32:58
Speaker 3: against the spread. Actually nine and two their last eleven,
33:02
Speaker 3: so they've been the most profitable team in the NBA
33:04
Speaker 3: since the last week in December. Clippers, though, hey, you know,
33:07
Speaker 3: not too bad as well. They're nine and two their
33:09
Speaker 3: last eleven against the spread. So I've kind of with
33:11
Speaker 3: you on that Joe road win against Detroit as a dog,
33:14
Speaker 3: you know, coming off the three game road trip one
33:16
Speaker 3: day back. Not a great setup is probably the reason
33:19
Speaker 3: we've seen this line drop a bit. But still, do
33:21
Speaker 3: you really trust the Hornets plus five? This is we
33:23
Speaker 3: talked about earlier. They almost have to win the game
33:26
Speaker 3: at that price range. Not something I'm interested in.
33:28
Speaker 2: I agree.
33:29
Speaker 1: And then, of course, have you seen the total in
33:31
Speaker 1: the Utah Cleveland game, because it bears mentioning because we
33:35
Speaker 1: are now up to two hundred and fifty points here
33:38
Speaker 1: as a total between Utah and Cleveland, and I don't
33:41
Speaker 1: even know if marketing is playing or not with Utah.
33:44
Speaker 1: I'm not sure where we're getting that many. That's an
33:47
Speaker 1: awful lot of points here, Meryll, even I get that,
33:51
Speaker 1: you know, one hundred and fifty points were just tropped
33:54
Speaker 1: on Utah.
33:54
Speaker 2: But they didn't play anybody like I mean, really, two
33:58
Speaker 2: fifty already is that what we're doing.
34:01
Speaker 3: So the game I saw in Charlotte was against Utah,
34:03
Speaker 3: as I referenced and market, it had like he had
34:06
Speaker 3: over twenty some points by the third quarter, and the
34:08
Speaker 3: Jets were losing by like twenty or thirty points to
34:10
Speaker 3: the Hornets. So I remember thinking that at that time, Joe, like,
34:13
Speaker 3: this is a really bad team. They've got what's considered
34:16
Speaker 3: like a top ten player who's quietly had like almost
34:19
Speaker 3: thirty points and three quarters and they're still getting blown out.
34:22
Speaker 3: That's how bad their defense is. So here again, maybe
34:26
Speaker 3: just look at a team total instead and just play
34:28
Speaker 3: the Cleveland team total up and over, which is one
34:31
Speaker 3: thirty one and a half, and that seems big, but
34:33
Speaker 3: it's doable. Utah's at one eighteen and a half. They
34:36
Speaker 3: probably get there as well. And I know I've said
34:38
Speaker 3: this for years, You've always heard me say it. Ralph
34:40
Speaker 3: Michael says as well. The highest totals go over, the
34:43
Speaker 3: lowest totals go under. This open two forty six and
34:45
Speaker 3: a half, it's up to two fifty two to fifty
34:47
Speaker 3: and a half. And the reason it works is because
34:49
Speaker 3: they don't truly price these games where they should be
34:51
Speaker 3: because the public kind of like with the injury games,
34:54
Speaker 3: you know, they get apprehensive, they just stay away from them.
34:57
Speaker 3: So if you're going to play it, the only way
34:58
Speaker 3: to play this up and over, but you can also
35:00
Speaker 3: look at those team total options as well to split
35:02
Speaker 3: it up a big getting a little bit more reasonable.
35:04
Speaker 1: Yep, kind of like that there here tonight, just six
35:07
Speaker 1: games there. We went over the college basketball. We both
35:11
Speaker 1: have a couple of looks there for you. Not a
35:13
Speaker 1: ton going on in the swack in the Southland there,
35:17
Speaker 1: but Nickels State seems to be one that we certainly
35:20
Speaker 1: pointed to that we liked. You've got a little American
35:23
Speaker 1: versus Navy. What do you do in that situation too?
35:26
Speaker 1: Meryll And we like the Patriot League where Navy got
35:30
Speaker 1: bounced by American in the final last year and they
35:34
Speaker 1: end up punching their ticket to March Madness. And Navy
35:38
Speaker 1: was the better team all year long and just went
35:41
Speaker 1: cold in that game. But now they've got an opportunity
35:44
Speaker 1: here to exact a little revenge here. Do you think teams,
35:49
Speaker 1: especially a team like Navy that still has a lot
35:51
Speaker 1: of their guys from that team a year ago, do
35:53
Speaker 1: you think that Navy remembers that loss.
35:57
Speaker 3: Yeah, I was just gonna say, I mean most revenge
35:59
Speaker 3: spots nothing anymore because none of the players are saying.
36:01
Speaker 3: But if there's one squad, like you said, Joe, that
36:03
Speaker 3: would have the same makeup, it's the Service Academy as
36:05
Speaker 3: well as they didn't graduate. So I agree with you there.
36:08
Speaker 3: When I was doing the Bowl videos by one of
36:10
Speaker 3: the comments was fantastic. I need to start clipping these
36:12
Speaker 3: and giving people credit. But we were talking about opt outs
36:15
Speaker 3: and how you know the Service academies always do well
36:17
Speaker 3: Bowl games because one of the reasons is that you
36:18
Speaker 3: can't opt out. They always have their lineups. One of
36:21
Speaker 3: the comments is said, if you opt out of a
36:23
Speaker 3: Bowl game of the Service Academy is called a wall.
36:25
Speaker 3: I thought that was hilarious, so I like that that
36:28
Speaker 3: was a great line. I was like, what, it's actually true.
36:30
Speaker 3: It's funny because it's true. Yeah, you get a clean
36:33
Speaker 3: handicap now because of the Service academies. You know what
36:36
Speaker 3: you're getting. Maybe Surprisingly does not take a lot of
36:40
Speaker 3: three pointers, and you would think this would be like
36:41
Speaker 3: an Air Force team that used to take half their
36:43
Speaker 3: shots from three. Navy actually scores a lot down low.
36:47
Speaker 3: They're a very effective defensive team. It's not what you
36:50
Speaker 3: would expect from Navy basketball, and American doesn't give up
36:53
Speaker 3: many threes, but they're pretty suspect down low with their
36:56
Speaker 3: two point defense. So this looks like a good matchup
36:58
Speaker 3: for Navy, and I do think it's one of those
37:00
Speaker 3: legitimate revenge spots. They'll be focused as well. I agree.
37:03
Speaker 1: I think there's some value in it there. So there
37:06
Speaker 1: you go, guys, little NBA, little college basketball. A little
37:10
Speaker 1: look ahead here to the divisional round. Not to mention
37:14
Speaker 1: the game tonight between the Texans and the Steelers. Don't
37:18
Speaker 1: forget to hit that like button, make sure you hit
37:21
Speaker 1: that subscribe button, and of course come back and join
37:24
Speaker 1: us again tomorrow as we have maybe the press, maybe
37:27
Speaker 1: not maybe Meryll, maybe Brian power One never knows these days.
37:32
Speaker 1: And he's apparently still at the poker table. I don't
37:35
Speaker 1: know if he knows whose poker table it is, but
37:37
Speaker 1: apparently he's at a poker table. Merrill, is that what
37:40
Speaker 1: you hear in the press.
37:43
Speaker 3: You and I were told, you told me Friday he
37:45
Speaker 3: was not doing well, but your dinner date apparently got canceled.
37:48
Speaker 3: And then he calls me this week, and it said
37:49
Speaker 3: he needs me almost certainly for Monday and Tuesday. He said,
37:52
Speaker 3: point blank, Steve, I'm doing really well. It's almost a certainy.
37:55
Speaker 3: I'll need you Monday and Tuesday to fill in. Now,
37:58
Speaker 3: he made it sound like it was poker tournament. I
38:02
Speaker 3: think he did say poker. But then again, he might
38:03
Speaker 3: just be playing his dad head to head like it
38:05
Speaker 3: is dominating his dad at poker. He might be doing
38:08
Speaker 3: very well in that matchup.
38:09
Speaker 1: Yeah, he's he's doing well with his canasta game right
38:12
Speaker 1: now against his own man. So that's wonderful stuff there.
38:16
Speaker 1: So that means you and I again tomorrow. Art the
38:19
Speaker 1: season there, Meryl can't wait to do it. We'll have
38:21
Speaker 1: updates live from the book there with Art will get
38:24
Speaker 1: you all set up. What a huge card in college
38:27
Speaker 1: basketball NBA and of course get ready for the divisional
38:32
Speaker 1: round that is coming up. So Meryl, enjoy it, man,
38:35
Speaker 1: enjoy the games here tonight. We will see you again
38:37
Speaker 1: tomorrow for the best betting show ever on wager talk
38:41
Speaker 1: dot com