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Cameron Bagrie: Independent Economist on inflation figures out today · Early Edition with Ryan Bridge

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  Speaker 1: Now, one thing you will be watching very closely if
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  Speaker 1: you have four newborn babies is inflation. And goodness me
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  Speaker 1: on this side of the Tasman, we're up again. We're
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  Speaker 1: getting a number out this morning. Most economists have it
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  Speaker 1: coming in at four percent. I think the RBNZ was
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  Speaker 1: saving three point nine. Cameron Bagriy, independent economists and founder
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  Speaker 1: of Baggery Economics US This morning, Cameron, good morning, No,
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  Speaker 1: good morning. So what are you expecting.
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  Speaker 2: Here? Bye? Number looks like it's going to be something
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  Speaker 2: around four. Look whether it's three point nine to four
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  Speaker 2: point one is pretty material. I'm the key here is
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  Speaker 2: going to be core inflation. Core inflation sort of scripture
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  Speaker 2: food and energy and conflation's been stubbornly sticky around two
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  Speaker 2: point five percent. You know, the reserve event would like
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  Speaker 2: that number a little lower to two percent, which is
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  Speaker 2: the biddle part of the inflation band game one. If
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  Speaker 2: we see col inflation pick up in regard to we're interesstructive. Lot.
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  Speaker 2: There you go.
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  Speaker 1: Do you think core inflation is going to pick up?
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  Speaker 1: I mean we have eeded energy costs go up. And
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  Speaker 1: this was this is the full picture of the war, right.
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  Speaker 1: The last one we got only captured about a month
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  Speaker 1: of it.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think poor inflation is going to continue to
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  Speaker 2: be simmering around that two and a half percent mark,
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  Speaker 2: and that's going to place the Reserve bank in an
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  Speaker 2: awkward position. And part of the problem got wrong is
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  Speaker 2: that we sill have got pop inflation, but we really
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  Speaker 2: didn't get fully on top of inflation inflation. He had
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  Speaker 2: gone inflation that belows it got back to around two
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  Speaker 2: point two percent. Normally, when you go through a recession
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  Speaker 2: you see inflation dropped well below two percent. That didn't
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  Speaker 2: drop below two percent. Your poor inflation was still in
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  Speaker 2: the upper part of the one to three percent inflation band.
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  Speaker 2: So when you see an inflation shot coming through the system,
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  Speaker 2: which is what's coming through the system, you're going to
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  Speaker 2: be a little bit more on alert. You're going to
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  Speaker 2: be a little bit more cautious. And of course the
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  Speaker 2: reserve banker's got interest rates. You know, the official cash
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  Speaker 2: right is still what's called the funds a and the
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  Speaker 2: fund zone is sort of when you've got the official
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  Speaker 2: cash right for low three percent idea that you have
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  Speaker 2: that ocr not in the fund zone by around three percent,
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  Speaker 2: what's we call neutral. That's with the reserved, nor they've
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  Speaker 2: got to foot an accelerator or the brake, which.
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  Speaker 1: Is where they'll get by Christmas. Right, Well, that's what
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  Speaker 1: the markets are telling us they'll do. Would today's number,
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  Speaker 1: I mean, how bad would today's number have to be
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  Speaker 1: for them to put the really foot to put the
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  Speaker 1: foot down on it.
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  Speaker 2: Well, we'll really put the foot down. Look like, I
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  Speaker 2: think they're going to go respective. I just think if
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  Speaker 2: you're a central bank and you've got inflation that's been
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  Speaker 2: in the apple part of your zone or that out
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  Speaker 2: of your zone for about five years, you want to
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  Speaker 2: get that ICI back to three percent. And what we've
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  Speaker 2: got at the moment is that it's pretty clear that
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  Speaker 2: we've got a class shop but an improving economy and
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  Speaker 2: the economy on the improve It is a good thing
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  Speaker 2: when you've got the economy on the approved And Okay,
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  Speaker 2: the GDP numbers for the dum quarter are not going
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  Speaker 2: to look that great, but if you look at the
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  Speaker 2: economic imitators outside of the guine Court, it's very clear
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  Speaker 2: that things are picking up outside of the housing market.
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  Speaker 2: So there's no need to say a special case rate
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  Speaker 2: to be around two point and five percent. Okay, if
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  Speaker 2: you own a property. It's like the official care s
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  Speaker 2: arrate to remain pretty low. But yeah, people need to
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  Speaker 2: wake up a reality that we don't get more wealthy
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  Speaker 2: selling more expensive houses to each other, and so that
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  Speaker 2: party is sort of over and the reserve being you know,
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  Speaker 2: think they're going to be pretty cautious like most simple
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  Speaker 2: banks around the globe, because we've just had inflation too
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  Speaker 2: high to too long, and inflation is just a tax
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  Speaker 2: on society.
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  Speaker 1: Cameron Begriy, independent economists, founder of Bagar Economics. That number
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  Speaker 1: out this morning for.
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  Speaker 2: More from Early Edition with Ryan Bridge.
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