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NCAAF Week 10 Best Bets · Toadstool Sports

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on Own
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: seven run over the last two days after tonight it
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna start
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I don't
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: even know what to tell you about that. I just
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: don't want to do this anymore. I have never seen
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: anything like this. Man with the slump continuing. Two straight losses,
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: not a good day at all. Own four that have
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: not had a good season. Man with wookends the slump
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: that I'm on, and the slump continues. I've reached into peak. Actually,
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: I'm going to burn my brons hat. Man. I don't
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: know what is going on with the Bruins arch hape?
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: Is that what it is? I don't even know it's
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: It's March ninth, I think who even knows? Man, I
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: don't know what day it is anymore. But I don't
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: even know what day it is anymore. Man, back with
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: you after the worst day that I could possibly have,
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: Back with you as I always am until I die,
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: at least oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday it did
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: not go well for me. Own five. The worst month
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: that I've ever had in my eighteen years doing this.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: The slumps, the slump discontinuous, the slump continues. Somebody fucking
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: kill me, please. I don't even know what I should
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: do at this point, other than potentially end it all.
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: What's up? Eerybody's towed back with you? Better off dead?
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: College Football Week ten edition. Things are not going well, obviously,
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: as we're one and two in college football ready to
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: start the week. I don't like the board tomorrow very
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: much at all. I'm gonna give about three plays, and
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: one of them is going to be a total because
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: I just don't even give a shit anymore. Today was
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: a losing day, which feels really bad because this is
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: the worst day that we've had and I don't know
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: well over a month at this point. You know, I'll
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: talk about a more tomorrow morning, I guess, because the
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: morning show will have less to talk about than we
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: have here because I gotta fucking cover the entire college
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: football board here. I also look like a fat baby
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: because I had to fucking shave my face to be
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: a woman for Halloween. If you guys didn't see that,
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: I was the Phillies, Karen I tweeted it out and
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: you can go check that out and learned a toad.
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: Let's just get fucking into it, man. I just I
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: don't fucking care college football. We got some games to
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: talk about, dude. Boston College. I get thrown off by
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: this all the time, dude, because I'm logged into ESPN.
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: They're one of my favorite teams listed, so they're always
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: at the top of the score board here, even though
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: they're not playing the earliest game. We'll talk about that anyway.
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: Number twelve Notre Dame is playing against one in seven
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: Boston College. Oh my god. This is a rivalry game, though,
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: so BC might Actually if they're gonna show up for
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: a game, it's gonna be a game like this. Man.
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: PC has basically nothing left to play for this year.
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: This is gonna be one of the games where maybe
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: they'll show up for it. They get a ranked Notre
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: Dame team coming into their house. It's a rivalry, annual
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: rivalry between these two Catholic schools. I forget what the
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: name of the rivalry is. I don't even remember whatever
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: the fuck it is. I lose track of everything. Man,
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: this game I don't know, what should we even say
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: about this? Notre Dame is a huge favorite. Obviously, They're
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: up from twenty eight to thirty and a half, eighty
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: six percent of the tickets ninety five percent of the
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: cash on Notre Dame, so the money looks like it's
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: coming in a Notre Dame numbers headed to thirty one.
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: I mean, I would not lay that with Notre Dame though.
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: Notre Dame has bigger things ahead of them, like they
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: do not need style points year. I mean there are
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: two loss teams, so yeah, I mean, they just got
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: to try to make the college football Playoff here and
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: I don't really think style points against PC is really
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: gonna matter. They just gonna make sure to win this
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: game get out of there. And they're coming off a
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: big rivalry win in their previous game against USC that
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: was a much bigger game against a ranked USC team
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: that was the biggest remaining game on Notre Dame schedule.
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: They also went into a buye after that, so they
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: went into a buy and a good note. So I
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: will reiterate that when a team goes into the buy
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: and a good note, they can't really use that buy
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: to fix anything because everything's working, so it's like, what
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: do you do. You're gonna use that buy to prepare
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: for Boston College? Probably not, and probably actually they might
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: even just start looking ahead and be preparing for Navy,
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: who they have up next, because Navy is actually an
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: undefeated team. So with their remaining schedule here, that's really
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: the only threat really to Notre Dame going undefeated for
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: the rest of the season. I would say, I don't
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: think they're gonna lose any of these remaining games. I
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: wouldn't imagine all those Stanford I go to the Pacific Coast,
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: maybe because that'd be the first time to go to
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: the Pacific Coast. That's a rabber again, but Stanford sucks.
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: I mean, Notre Dame is obviously gonna be a big
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: favorite in every one of these remaining games, but Navy's
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: the biggest game remaining. If I was gonna play this game,
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: I would take the points with Boston College, though again
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: I think Notre Dame it's gonna be a game where
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: they probably just try to get in and get out,
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: don't get anybody hurt. They might start putting backups in,
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: you know whatever. Like again, they don't need to cover
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: the spread here. So those are my thoughts on that
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: that's on ESPN. Isn't that just great? At three point
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: thirty pm Eastern twelve pm Slate though, we have Penn
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: State Ohio State on Fox and the schedule makers when
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: they first they first scheduled this, they were thinking, this
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: is gonna be a huge game and instead Penn State
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: doesn't even have a win in the Big Ten. They're
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: basically dead. They fired their coach. But if Penn State's
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: gonna get up for a game, man, like you know,
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: Penn State, they're not anywhere, just like I said, with
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: BC teams like this when they you know, have not
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: achieved their goals, their dreams have been croshed whatever. Like
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: I know, Penn State could technically still have become Bowl
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: eligible and whatever, because I think they have a shot
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: at that because they can get six wins here. But
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: this is gonna be one of the games that matters
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: on the remaining schedule, Like they get to play Ohio State.
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: I mean, that's a game that they will get up
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: for and they really have nothing left to play for
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: for the rest of the season. Ohio State obviously ranked
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: number one in the country. They are actually the best
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: team in the country power ratings wise, if you look
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: at pretty much any respected power ratings. But is Ohio
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: State gonna maybe take Penn State lightly now because Penn
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: State has been so bad this season? They might Ohio State,
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: I mean they really have not been tested yet. Like
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: their best win was against Texas in Week one and
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: that was a close game, and then since then, like
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: who have they really played? I mean, I'm not gonna
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: say Ohio State is not still the best team, and
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: the power ratings are saying they are, but they've faced
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: a pretty weak schedule. Their best win besides that is
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: probably actually the road game against Washington is their best
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: win besides that, Like Illinois, I know they're ranked at
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: the time, but Illinois is not very good. So those
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: are my thoughts on this. Ohio State's also coming out
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: of a bye. They went into a bye as an
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: undefeated team, and again I'll say that that's not really
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: a good time to have a bye because it can
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: just disrupt your momentum. You don't want to have a
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: bye when everything's working. Sure they'll get up, but they'll
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: probably still get up for this, I guess because it's
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: Penn State and they don't really really have any bigger
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: games after this until they play Michigan in the final
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: week of the season. So maybe the game will still
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: matter at Ohio State a little bit, but they could
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: have their momentum disrupted a little bit. Penn State might
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: actually be able to take them a little bit by surprise,
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: or I think Penn State, like talent wise, they're still
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: a little bit better than what their record looks. I know,
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: they lost their quarterback all or I don't really think
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: that's really even that bad of a thing, so, I mean,
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: he's not that good, so I don't know if that
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: really downgrades Penn's ate that much. To be honest, in
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: Penn State, they've at least been competitive in their last
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: like all their losses have been close losses, I should say,
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: at the very least, so you can at least say
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: that about them. They went into a buy as well,
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: by the way, so the schedule makers were expecting this
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: to be one of those big games. Hey, let's give
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: both these teams buys coming into this game. Penn State
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: went into the buy on a much more advantageous like,
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: at a much more advantageous time. I should say, they
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: went into the buy in a bad note losing four
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: games in a row. They did cover against Iowa because
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: that was Penn State's fired coach spot. They had fired
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: James Franklin. It was also the injured player theory spots.
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: They had a couple of things going for them. They
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: covered the number against Iowa, still didn't win, but now
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: they get to go into a buye And I think
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: that buy is extra helpful for Penn State because it
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: means they get to get more reps with their backup
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: quarterback here, who is gonna be their starting quarterback. Now
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: he gets to get more reps with the starting offense,
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: gets to learn the system more, They get that week
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: to try to fix some things. They get an extra
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: week with the interim coach there to figure more things out.
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: So I think that buy came at one of the
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: best possible times for Penn State. So I would take
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: the points with Ben State in this game if I
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: was gonna play it, I won't. But it's also a
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: very low total at forty four and a half. So
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: if you're taking points, you're getting a ton of points here,
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: and you're taking those points with a very low total
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: as well, So that's a better time to take a
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: huge amount of points like this is when you're getting
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: low total six to nine percent of the tickets and
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: seventy nine percent of the cash on Ohio State. But
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: the line did drop from twenty and a half down
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: to eighteen and a half. I don't know if it
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: was ever at twenty one, So I don't think you're
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: really missing out at a key number here. I think
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: eighteen and a half or anything in that range, or
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: anything above that, that seems fine to me. I would
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: take the points with Penn State if I was going
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: to play that one. It could actually be a fairly
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: ugly low scoring game. Man. Also at twelve, we have
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: a pretty big game on ABC, number nine, Vandy at
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: number twenty Texas, And again I feel like I say
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: this every week. I don't know which game is gonna
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: be the college game day game. I don't know if
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: maybe it's even gonna be Georgia and Florida because that's
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: always just such a big rivalry. I don't know if
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: they get the game day slate. I don't know. It's
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: probably not gonna be Vandy in Texas though, but they're
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: on ABC, which is part of the ESPN family. Number
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: nine Vandy one loss team against number twenty. Texas is
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: a two loss team, with the both teams three and
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: one in the SEC. This is interesting because you have
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: Vandys ranked ninth in the country, Texas ranked twentieth, even
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: though they were ranked number one to start the season,
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: and yet Texas is a three point favorite here and
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: they're headed towards three and a half. So it's like, well,
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: what gives is another one of those games where the
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: team that's ranked lower is being favored by the odds makers.
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: The oddsmakers are telling you Texas is probably basically the
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: slightly better team. I don't know how much you give
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: Texas for home field here, maybe you give them about
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: three to three and a half. But so even if
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: that's the case, they're telling you that these teams are
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: Even so, the oddsmakers telling something different from the rankings makers.
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: Whenever I see a spot like that, as I keep saying,
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: the odds makers they have more money. They have the
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: money at stake man, So the odds makers, they do
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: this as a business. So you got to put more
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: stock into what the odds makers are telling you that
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: what the rankings makers are telling, because the rankings makers
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: are just dipshit like beat writers that just go based
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: on feel and what they've seen. Basically, is Vandy really
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: the ninth best team in the country. Absolutely not. I'm
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: not even convinced that they're a top twenty five team.
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: To be honest, Texas is Texas. Say what you will
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: about their offense, which is shit and Arch Manning, by
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: the way, there were some question marks about whether he
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: was going to start here because I think he's either
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: injured or maybe he just hasn't been getting the job done.
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: But it seems like he is going to play, so
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: that I think is no longer going to be a question.
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: Market will be Manning. But Texas, I mean, you know
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: what they do. They play really good defense. They have
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: the better defense here. I know this is a spot
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: where the defense is laying points rather than taking points
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: that rather take points with the better defense. But you
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: look at what Vandy has done so far, and I
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: don't know, man, I mean, that South Carolina win looks
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: a lot less good now than it did back down.
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: I told you South Carolina was not actually that good.
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: They were pretty poor at the beginning of the season.
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: I actually gave out Vandy as a play in that game,
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: telling you that South Carolina was just thriving on like
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: defensive and special teams touchdowns. So now the early slate
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: that Vandy played looks very very weak. They beat FCS
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: Charleston Southern, Virginia Tech, who wound up firing their coach,
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: South Carolina who's not that good, and fired their offensive
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: line coach, Georgia State, terrible team, Utah State who's not
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: very good either, and that was their out. Those are
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: their out of conference games plus their at one SEC
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: game against South Carolina. Very weak early season schedule. Then
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: they lost to Alabama. I mean, obviously you're not gonna
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: really knock them from doing that. I mean, Alabama probably
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: the second best team in the they rebably get that.
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: Just statement win against LSU, I mean, Vandy a program
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: that doesn't usually beat LSU, but LSU, I mean they
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: just fired their coach, So how good does that win really?
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: LSU struggling a little bit. And then Vandy beat Missouri
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: last time out, and that was a game. It went
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: into overtime, I think, right, and I think I gave
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: out or no, it didn't go into overtime, but I
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: gave out Missouri as a play in this game. And
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: it was close and I think Missouri's quarterback got hurt
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: in the game, and I think Vandy actually intentionally injured him.
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: I think I was complaining about that, So Vandy, really
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: they're not as good as the record looks. Man. Texas
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: has actually faced the more difficult schedule. I mean Texas
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: well the least faced Ohio State and Oklahoma. I mean,
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: those are two really good teams. At the very least
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: in Florida was the one of their losses that was
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: on the road Florida, I mean Florida stepped up their
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: game for that game at least. I think Texas was
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: looking ahead to the Oklahoma game, the Red River rivalry.
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I mean I do actually think Texas face
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: was a little bit more of a difficult schedule here.
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: So as you can tell, I'm gonna lean to Texas
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: in this game. I think the spot sets up better
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: for them as well, because Texas is coming off back
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: to back scares on the road as a big favorite
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: against Kentucky and against Mississippi State, and Texas did poorly
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: in both of those games. And I think arch Manning
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: might have gotten hurt in that Mississippi State game, and
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: whoever their backup quarterback was actually came in and helped
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: them win the game in overtime. If I remember correctly,
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: I think it was overtime, right, Yeah, And normally I
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: don't want to really look to a team that went
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: into overtime, But in that in that case, when you're
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: a big favorite like that and you play poorly, I
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: think you're gonna refocus after that. I think maybe Texas
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: was even looking ahead to this. Yes, this is gonna
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: be a revenge game for Vandy, but win is Vandy
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: against Texas not a revenge spot for Vandy, right, Like
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: Texas always beats Vandy. And the thing is Vandy almost
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: beat Texas last year in Vandy, so I think Texas
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: is gonna remember that. So maybe Texas will actually show
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: up for this game for all of those reasons that
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: I just stated. So I like Texas for that reason
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: in this game as well. This is actually fairly close
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: to being a play for me, to be honest. And Vandy,
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: you know, they're coming off a couple of ranked wins again,
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: so they're having to face a fourth ranked team in
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: a row, which makes it really, I don't know, not
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: the easiest spot for them. They gotta go on the
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: road to do this. And if this was the beginning
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: of the season, which I know it is, that we've
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: seen more, like we've figured out more about these teams
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: since then. But at the beginning of the season, Texas
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: would have been a massive favorite in this game, and
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: now they're only a three point favorite. Ousmakers are telling
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: you these teams are about even I don't buy that.
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: Just Texas's defense alone being one of the top like
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: few defenses in college football, that alone basically would tell
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: me that Texas should be more of a favorite. Here.
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: You're gonna be able to get them three three and
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: a half. I mean, obviously the three is better, but
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: fifty eight percent of tickets arend Vandy. The public kind
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: of leaning towards Vandy. Here fifty seven of the cash
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: on Texas. Again, the market is agreeing with it as well.
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: I like Texas in this one. Mister Pinsey, what's up man,
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: Thanks for coming back, Thanks for hanging out again. I
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: apologize for the bad day today. I mean, not every
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: day is gonna be a winner. So hopefully we get
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: back on track here. And I was running like so
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: hot that like, I mean, you're gonna have You're gonna
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: have bad days, you know, more than I've been having.
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: It's a grind, like you gotta win like fifty four
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: percent or so to to profit and to beat this.
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: And I've just been so hot recently that you knew
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: there was gonna be some sort of a decline. So
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: one in three tonight obviously not what I wanted. And
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: I think I'll talk about it tomorrow morning if you
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: come back, I'm gonna talk about it for you know,
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: tomorrow morning. I do think that the basketball losses for
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: both bullshit. I got the football game completely wrong. I
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: should not have given that out as a play, But
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: I don't think I was wrong really about the NBA games. Yeah,
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: bad days happen. Yeah, I mean, there's definitely some luck involved,
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: but you hope that the skill can just overcome the
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: luck a little bit. Miami number ten in the country
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: at SMU on ESPN at noon, And by the way,
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: I should just throw out there they we're getting it
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: to the point in the season where they're going to
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: be teams that have just become Bowl eligible and stuff,
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: and sometimes you want to look to fade teams that
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: didn't have high aspirations sometimes and they didn't even expect
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: to make a bowl at all, and they become bowl eligible.
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: Sometimes you want to fade those teams, but I don't
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: really see too many of those situations yet. And then
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: once you get into the really late weeks, then you
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: do want to take into account like is this team
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: still trying, is this team still trying to make a bowl?
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: Is this team already Bowl eligible? Do they just not
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: have anything left to play for? Etc. It's not gonna
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: come up in any of these big conference games really
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: at this point though. But yeah, Miami at SMU looking
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: at this game. Miami six and one, obviously, but they
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: bounced back nicely from their one loss to Louisville, which
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: was a win for me on the show with Louisville
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: and that one plus the points on the money line
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: sprinkle a little bit on the money line whenever you
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: take the underdog, man, Miami, I was correct, I believe
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: last week. I think they covered that number. I think
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: they were about a thirty point favorite. They blew out
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: stand for a nice bounce back from Miami. But now
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: this is only their second their second road game of
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: the entire season, man, and this is their first time
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: leaving the state of Florida, It's a very very weird scenario.
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: It's Week ten and this is only their second road
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: game and first time leaving Florida because their only other
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: road game was at Florida State. Kind of a weird
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: spot man SMU. On the other hand, they're coming off
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: an ugly loss last time out to a wake Forest
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: and I gave out wake Forest as a play last
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: week on the show. We didn't have a great week
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: last week in college football either. That was a win SMU.
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: I thought they were in a terrible spot. They were
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: coming off their big revenge win over Clemson for the
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: ACC Championship game last year, and they had this Miami
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: game on the horizon. They just had a terrible game
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: against wake Forest, only score twelve points. Just an awful game.
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: But you can kind of explain it because of the spot.
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: So I think this sets up much much better to
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: look towards SMU in this one. SMU is still looking
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: to become Bowl eligible. They probably will. I mean, I
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: don't really think they're gonna lose to Boston College next week,
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: even though it's gonna be on the road, but coming
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: up the Miami game, and you never really know, they
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: might be in a little bit of a hangover spot
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: or let down spot or whatever. Miami is only laying
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: ten points in this one, so they're not really laying
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: a huge amount for the number ten team in the country.
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: It makes it look almost a little bit too easy
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: to lay the points, which the public is doing sixty
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: percent of the tickets only fifty seven percent of the
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: cash on Miami. As I talk about this more, you know,
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: I mean, just because Miami hasn't left the state of Florida,
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: I mean that sets up a kind of interesting spot
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: to look towards. SMU. I still won't give it out
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: as a play, but I do kind of like that
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: one too. SMU plus the points to be the way
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: I would lean in that game, all right? Fox Sports
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: won Also at noon? Am I gonna talk about all
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: the ranked I mean, I guess I will. There aren't
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: really that many ranked games this week, as tradition I
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: talk about all of them. It seems like there are
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: a fewer games this week to talk about, so finally
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: we probably won't have a two hour show here. We
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: do have number twenty two one loss Houston on Fox
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: Sports one also at noon, facing West Virginia, who has
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: not won a game yet in conference. Obviously Houston's a
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: better team here, but Houston, they're much more of a
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: defensive team. This is a game with a low total,
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: so right away I kind of look at games a
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: low totals like this, and I want to start looking
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: towards taking the points. Houston's coming off of a fairly big
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: win over Arizona State. They pulled off that nice ranked
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: win over Arizona State, and Houston became ranked I think
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: because of that win. So sometimes when that happens, when
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: you see a team that's been unranked all season and
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: they're probably not actually a top twenty five team power
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: rating wise, which I would say is the case with Houston,
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: They're not one of the actual twenty five best teams
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: in the country, and they become ranked for the first time.
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: Sometimes that puts a target on their back a little bit,
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: and sometimes they get a little bit plump and gay,
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: as we say on this show here, they get a
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: little bit too cocky, too overconfident. They got a primetime
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: game against UCF coming up next to and I know
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: in UCF is not exactly an opponent you're gonna be
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: looking ahead to, but because that's a primetime game. Maybe
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: they will look ahead a little bit to that because
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: it's a Friday night game coming up next week. So
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: I don't think the spot is good for Houston. Arizona
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: State lost Levitt again in that game last week, I
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: believe as well. In Arizona State was coming up that
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: big upset of Texas Tech, so they were pretty much
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: in a letdown spot against Houston too. So there were
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: some reasons why Houston was able to pull off that
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: upset last week. So I would go I would take
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: the points with West Virginia in this one. Man. A
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: lot of these are games where I definitely have an opinion,
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: but I'm not going to give them out as play
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: as I'm trying to leave my place to just like
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: the strongest opinions that I have and hopefully we get
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: it done. But we'll see a lot of times I see,
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: you know, I leave all the like I'm feeling like
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: I'm leaving money on the table basically or whatever, like
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: not giving out plays on a lot of these like
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: leans that I have, and like a lot of them
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: come through. But that's the name of the game. Man.
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: Unfortunately with this one, you missed out on the fourteen
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: and a half if you wanted that. On West Virginia,
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: the numbers down to thirteen. I don't think you're gonna
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: get the fourteen and a half, but you could wait
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: and see if it gets back up to fourteen, Like
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: you could wait until noon tomorrow, because I mean if
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: it drops slightly from thirteen, I mean whatever. Even though
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: thirteen is slightly key, it's certainly not anywhere near as
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: key is fourteen eighty two percent of the tickets fifty
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: three percent of the cash on Houston. So Houston is
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: a very public team and they're taking less of the
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: actual money. The money's almost evenly split, so that tells
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: you the bigger bets are taking the points with West Virginia.
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: Here total is low, like I said, at forty nine,
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: and the money looks like it's coming in on the
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: under as well. Again, Houston, they're not a very good offense.
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: They're much more of a defensive team, so that might
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: help allow West Virginia to hang around. I mean, you
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: don't really typically want to lay points with a defensive
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: team in a game of a low total like that.
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: You want to tend to look towards the underdog West Virginia.
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: I think the reason for still showing up is that
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: they're facing a ranked team here and they're still looking.
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: They don't want to go winless in conference, man, so
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: I think that will still motivate West Virginia here. They
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: did have a close game last week, though that would
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: worry me maybe slightly, of the fact that they came
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: close luckily. I mean TCU luckily won because I had
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: them in Survivor, so I just needed to TCU to
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: win that game straight up, which they did. I'm still
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: alive in College Survivor. I don't remember who I picked
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: this week, though, I got to make sure that my
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: picks makes sense. But yeah, West Virginia. They were a
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: big underdog in that game and they covered, but I
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: think they it wasn't actually that close at the end.
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: I think they were down twenty three to end and
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: they scored a garbage time touchdown at the end, so
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: it wasn't really as close as maybe it looked on
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: the scoreboard. So yeah, I would take the points with
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: West Virginia and that one if I was gonna play.
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: It almost looks too easy to lay the points with Houston, right,
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: like a one lost team against this West Virginia team
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: with a horrific record, So a little bit of misleading
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: looking there. If you look at the records and the rankings, there,
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: uh three point thirty on the c W number sixteen Louisville,
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: who is skyrocketed up into the rankings basically because of
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: their upset win over Miami. Probably not the sixteenth best
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: team in the country though, so they're probably over ranked
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: as well, because that'll give you some recency bias. Whoops,
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: what did I just do? It's not even letting me
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: go back now? What the fuck? Man? I wanted to
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: just I wanted to still be on the scores page. Man.
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: Oh by the way, yeah, college basketball is coming up too.
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: You see here it's back in the uh in the
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: header here on ESBM. So I'm gonna have to start
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: doing college basketball and figure out how I want to
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: do that. I think it starts on Monday, and then
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: there were always like big game big boards, like I
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: think on Tuesday and Saturday. So I might have to
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: do college Basketball show on Friday night and have to
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: double it with the college football for a couple of weeks,
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: and then that's gonna really take a lot out of me.
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: And then I don't know, and then college basketball on
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: Monday nights as well. Fuck, I don't know, I don't
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: know what I want to do. All right, let me
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: go back to this. I just went off the scoreboard here,
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: which I did not want to do. Louisville and Virginia Tech.
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: Louisville is gonna be a big favorite here. I think
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: there's still probably a bit overrated though. I mean the
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: one big win was, of course, that game against Miami,
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: and they also had an upset loss against Virginia which
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: was a loss for me on the show. I did
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: get the win, though, I give out the win against Miami,
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: But other than that, they played a fairly weak schedule.
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: I mean, yes, they played James Madison and James Madison
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: is one of the best non power teams, so that
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: is a pretty good win for Louisville. But last week,
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: I mean, they just took it easy. I think against
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: Boston College just basically didn't even show up. See cover
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: the spread. There you go, I was correct about that.
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: Lean now they gotta go to Virginia Tech. Still, though,
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: I think Louisville just because they're a little bit overrated
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: here right now, I just don't know if they're gonna
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: be able to cover a number like this. Virginia Tech
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: they fired their coach not too long ago. They've been
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: playing a little bit better since then. They've had some
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: competitive games. They got to win on Friday night, which
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: does mean they have a little bit of extra time off,
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: I think, because Louisville played on Saturday, if I'm not mistaken.
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: But that was a double overtime game, so I could
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: see this going in a couple of different ways. Like
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: I don't usually want to play on a team that
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: played double overtime because that will take a lot out
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: of a team when they had to play two overtimes.
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: But then, yes, they did get an extra day off.
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: And the other thing is that they were a favorite
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: in that game and they did wind up covering. But
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: when you're a favorite and you get taken into overtime
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: sometimes you kind of get shocked back into focus after that.
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: So this is a tough game for me to handicap
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: man Like, normally I would want to be looking towards
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: the underdog, thinking that, yeah, ranked team here, like Louisville's
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: a little bit overrated. I still kind of worry about
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: Virginia Tech, though, but they're probably gonna show up for
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: games like this where they get to host a ranked team.
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: They have a pretty difficult remaining schedule, so it looks
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: like they're probably not gonna make a bowl this year.
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: So if they want to do anything for the remainder
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: of the season, I mean, probably they're gonna show up
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: for a game like this, though at home against the
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: ranked team. Some things to worry about, though. Virginia Tech's
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: been able to run the ball fairly decently recently decently recently,
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: although Drones has actually been really bad at quarterback in
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: some of these games, putting up some really bad numbers.
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: I don't know why, because he used to be fairly good.
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: He's no longer drone bombing out there. Uh So this
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: is a Louisville. Louisville's up from a ten to half
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: point favorite to an eleven point favorite. Their public seventy
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: two percent ticke. It's only sixty one percent of the
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: cash on them. I'll lean to taking the points with
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: Virginia Tech. But I don't love this one as much
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: as I like all the other ones that I talked
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: about more than that one so far. A number two
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: Indiana three point thirty pm Eastern here is playing Maryland
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: this is on CBS. Is Indiana actually the second best
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: team in the country. No, I would say they're not.
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: They're probably a top ten team. They're undefeated. I mean,
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: they're been shockingly good this year, but they also haven't
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: exactly faced that difficult of a schedule. I mean, that
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: Illinois win really doesn't look that good anymore Illinois. I
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: was saying back then, there's no way Illinois deserved to
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: be ranked as a top ten team. They're not even
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: the top twenty five team. Iowa was able to hang
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: in there against Indiana. I was a very good defensive team,
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: and Iowa definitely under the radar. Indiana's won really good
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: win was the one out of Oregon obviously, I mean
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: that was a big win. Oregon is a legit team,
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: so that was a good win. And then they didn't
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: have a letdown after that. They blew out Michigan State
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: and then UCLA. Did they cover against Michigan State, I
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: don't know if they did. They did not. Michigan State
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: actually covered by one and a half points or something
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: in that game, but then they were able to blow
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: out U see LA last week. They do a Penn
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: State up next though, and if you look at the
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: remaining schedule. I mean, that's the biggest game left, believe
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: it or not, because I mean, are they really gonna
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: focus on Wisconsin to Purdue. Probably not. I mean, it
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: looks like Indiana is actually gonna run the table and
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: go undefeated. It seems fairly likely at this point that
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: they will. I mean, we'll see what happens. I mean,
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: Penn State's gonna be the most difficult game they have left,
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: having to go to Happy Valley. I think you have
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: to go to Maryland, so this is gonna be their
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: first time going to the Eastern time zone. Don't exactly
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: love the spot for Indiana. I think they're maybe a
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: little bit overrated right now. Maryland, this will be a
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: game they show up for him. Maryland's actually coming out
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: of a bye. So Maryland actually went into a buy
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: on three straight losses. And yeah, they haven't stepped up
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: in class very well. I mean, Maryland, their best win
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: was the one at Wisconsin. They're actually an under in
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: that game. But since then they faced Washington, Nebraska, and UCLA,
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: who I think are probably all better than Wisconsin, and
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: they lost all of those games, although they were pretty
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: competitive in those games. So give Maryland credit for that.
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: Maryland lost every one of those games by three or
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: four points, and then they went to a buye, And
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: I think the buye came in a decent time for
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: them because they were on a lost streak. So when
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: you're on a losing streak, you go into a buye.
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: That buy can like stop that losing momentum and help
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: you fix some things that are wrong. So I think
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: the buye came in a decent time. I think the
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: spot does set up better for Maryland here. I would
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: look to take the points with Maryland, and the number
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: dropped a little bit from twenty three to twenty one.
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: Indiana is a big favorite still obviously eighty three percent
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: of the tickets and cash on Indiana. They're definitely a
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: very public side. I would lean to taking the points
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: with Maryland in that one if I was gonna do it,
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: which I will not. But that's those are my thoughts
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: on that one. Not a whole lot else to say.
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: But I think also Indiana, I know they've gone to
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: the Pacific times on once and they did actually travel
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: pretty well in that one, but going to the Eastern
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: time zone for the first time is still a little
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: bit of a weird travel spot there. ABC three thirty pm,
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: Florida and Georgia or Georgia and Florida. I'm gonna give
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: them a play on that game, and you probably know
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: what it is, so I'll skip that for now. Three
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: thirty pm Eastern, Number thirteen one lost. Texas Tech is
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: going to Kansas State to Manhattan, Kansas. Kansas State maybe
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: flying a little bit under the radar right now, man,
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: I mean, they had to higher expectations to start the season,
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: so yeah, they fell short, like they're not. I don't
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: think they're gonna make the Big Twelve championship or anything
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: like that. They've two losses, so maybe it's still possible
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: two conference losses, I mean, but I mean we'll see.
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: But this is gonna be a game. You know, Kansas
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: State's probably gonna get up for it because it's a
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: ranked Texas Tech team. It's still like I think, atop
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: the Big Twelve coming into their place, so it's a
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: big game for them. So I expect Kansas State to
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: show up here. Texas Tech. Keep in mind that Morton,
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: their quarterback, is still injured, so it will be Hammond
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: back in this one. Hammon I believe started the game
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: against Oklahoma State and it was such a blowout. I
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: think they just rested him, So you're gonna get a
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: rested Hammond who has at least played some this year
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: for Texas Tech. They had the nice bounce back after
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: they took that loss. Their only loss of the season
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: was on the road to Arizona State. That was the
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: injured player theory game. Interestingly enough, the first game with
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: Morton output. It was a weird game. I mean Arizona
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: State also it was a reverse injured player spot for
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: them where they got their quarterback Levitt back temporarily in
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: that game. And you know Arizona State, I mean they
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: just stepped up for the game like they wanted to
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: put in a good game against Texas Tech, and they did.
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: But Texas Tech, it could have been an ify spot
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: coming off of that game and they were able to
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: just blow out Oklahoma State anyway. I mean, Oklahoma State's
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: not good now Texas Tech. They go to Kansas State.
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: But after this they got BYU, dude, and I actually
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: I get back. I think BYU is actually a top
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: the standings right now. Cincinnati actually behind them, so Texas
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: Tech might actually look ahead a little bit to BYU here,
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: because BYU, I mean BYU might be the most over
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: ranked team in all of college football at this point. Man,
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: I'm not buying BYU at all. But that's gonna be
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: a big game. So this could be a look ahead
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: for Texas Tech man, maybe potentially looking ahead to that
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: BYU game next week, because that is a big game,
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: and I expect Texas Tech to probably win that game
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: against BYU. By the way, It'll depend maybe on the
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: on what the spot looks like. But as you can tell,
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: I'm leaning towards taking the points with Kansas State in
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: this one. As a lean. I'm not gonna give it
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: out as a play. I just don't think I could
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: get there with Kansas State because they did win against
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: Kansas last week and that's their big rivalry game, although
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: of course Kansas State dominates that rivalry like I don't
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: even know when the last time Kansas won in that
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: rivalry was. But Kansas has actually played Kansas State close
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: the last few years. So Kansas blowing Kansas out it
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: actually is a road underdog in that game is a
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: little bit of a different that's a little bit different
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: than what we've seen over the last couple of years
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: when we're seeing Kansas be competitive, and I thought Kansas
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: might actually this might be the year where they actually
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: catch Kansas State and actually win the game. I thought
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: that might be the case. That didn't happen, But the
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: fact that Kansas State blew them out for the first
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: time in like the last few years could have Kansas
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: State maybe riding that high a little bit. But will
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: they overlook Texas Tech at home? I don't think so,
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: so I think the spot is the worse for Texas Tech.
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: It's gonna be the whatever it is, second or third
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: game with a Hammond or whatever his name is starting
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: a quarterback, So little bit of a downgrade for Texas
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: Tech there as well. I don't think that's great for
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: them either, because they're not They're no longer in the
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: injured player theory spot. Texas Tech is up from a
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: seven point favorite to a seven with juice with fifty
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: seven percent of the tickets sixty six percent of the
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: cash on them. I actually don't agree with the Castro
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: centers on that one. I would lean to taking the
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: points of Kansas State, and that one won't be a
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: play for me though. Three forty five pm Eastern before
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: we get to the night's sleigh. This is a weird time,
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: weird start time for this one on ESPN two, number fifteen.
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: Virginia way has one loss on the season and no
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: losses in the ACC. They gotta go to cal So
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: on the surface, I mean, my first reaction to this was, well,
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: an East Coast team going to the Pacific Coast seems
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: like a little bit of a difficult spot because it's
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: a weird travel spot. It would be worse if it
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: was a late night game, though, like these East Coast
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: teams going out late to the West Coast. I think
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: that's worse because it's like really late with their biological
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: clock and like fatigue and set in. So the spot
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: isn't quite as bad for that reason. But then if
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: you look at what the spot looks like for these
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: two teams, the spot actually starts looking pretty bad. For
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: cal Virginia, they're coming out of a game where they
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: almost lost at North Carolina and they really it should
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: have been an easier win for Virginia. Virginia was a
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: digit favorite twelve and a half in this one, and
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: they only scored seventeen points and they had to escape
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: North Carolina in overtime, So I think Virginia got caught
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: looking ahead, man, But they've actually played poorly two games
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: in a row, and I think that other game that
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: they played poorly against Washington State the week before that
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: were the only one by two. I think they were
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: completely overlooking Washington State too, because that was an out
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: of conference game and Virginia had just come out of
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: a bye after two big wins against Florida State and Louisville,
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: both in upsets. So I think Virginia was in a
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: bad spot in that one too coming out of the bye,
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: because I think that by just kind of hurt their
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: momentum a little bit. So I actually think they were
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: in a better spot after two close calls. Is a
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: big favorite in both of them, double digit favorite. They
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: almost lost both those games, but it's still gonna be
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: their first trip to the Pacific Coast. That does worry
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: me a little bit. So that's one reason why I
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: don't want to play Virginia. The other reason is we
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: don't really know how good Virginia actually is because those
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: two wins against Florida State and Louisville actually aren't really
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: looking as good now. Florida State is a below five
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: hundred team. Now there's still they were only like good
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: games that one against Alabama against a freshman quarterback in
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: their first game in his first game in Alabama's first
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: game of the season, so it is I mean, Virginia
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: might be a little bit overrated here man. I don't
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: think they're really the fifteenth best team in the country.
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: So that does warry me a little bit as well.
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: So a couple of things do worry me about that.
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: Cal though, they're coming off that double overtime game, and
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: they're having to travel back to the Pacific coast, so
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: they're also having to travel cross country, although of course
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: they're gonna be back home at the very least, and
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: they're gonna be hosting a ranked team, so you think
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: maybe they will get up for it. But they did
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: go into double overtime and they almost pulled off the
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: upset against Virginia Tech on Friday night prime time, So yeah,
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: the spot looks better for Virginia for that reason. Like
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: you got Virginia as a team that's coming off really
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: poor performances as a big favorite versus Cal who is
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: coming off a goodformans as an underdog. So usually you
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: do want to look to the favorite to refocus and
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: play better here, but just I do have those hesitations
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: with it that I just pointed out. The money is
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: coming out of Virginia. For what it's worth, we're up
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: from three and a half to five and a half
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: now I don't think it's gonna get to seven. So
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: if you did want to lay the points with Virginia
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: five and a half or six, I mean, that's fine
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: if you do want to do that. Sixty five percent
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: of tickets on cal so Cal is actually a little
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: bit public, which seems very strange. Mean, I don't see
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: how ranked one loss Virginia team is not the public
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: side against Cal. That doesn't really jive with me. So
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: that seems the percentage just seems weird to me. It
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: doesn't seem like it's right. But sixty eight percent of
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: the cash of Virginia. I have heard some professionals talking
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: about how they do like Virginia in this one. So
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: I'll give a slight agreement with that moment one. I'll
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: slightly agree with Virginia, but don't want to make that
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: a play. South Carolina and Ole miss is gonna be
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: my other play, one of my other two plays, So
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: I have two plays that are in ranked matchups, and
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: I think the other one is not in a ranked matchup,
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: so I'll skip that one for now. Purdue and Michigan.
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: Purdue still doesn't have a Big ten when Michigan's ranked
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: twenty first in the country. This is a seven pm
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: game on Big Ten Network seven PM Eastern. Michigan coming
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: off beating Michigan State on the road, but not a
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: very impressive win necessarily for Michigan only winning by eleven.
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: But Michigan State, as I pointed out, Michigan State like
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: always steps up their game to play Michigan. They're pretty
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: much always the little brother in that rivalry. I believe
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: Michigan State covered the number, though I think they had
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: to score late to do that. Underwood had a really
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: bad game from Michigan though. I mean, Michigan runs the
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: football a lot, though, so they're a pretty balanced offense
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: and they mostly rely on their defense. Michigan is definitely
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: a good defensive team. Underwood is a little bit shaky
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: still as a freshman quarterback, so I do worry about
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: him a little bit. But of course, I mean they're
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: playing Purdue, so I mean, how much do you have
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: to worry about them playing Purdue, I don't know. I
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: mean the spot they are still coming off of winning
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: a rivalry game against Michigan State, and they might not
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: take Purdue totally seriously, and Purdue is still trying to
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: get their first conference win. Here, Purdue is coming up
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: another ugly loss at home against Rutgers. That's pretty bad. Yeah,
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: Purdue sucks. I mean, they did get their quarterback back
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: in that game. It looks like brown, so maybe they
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: were in kind of like a reverse injured player spot
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: or something like that. I don't know what their quarterback
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: situation was, but yeah, Purdue, I mean, their only two
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: wins are just pathetic against a MAC team Ball State
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: and then an FCS Southern one. Yeah, they're not a
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: good team, but it is possible Michigan just doesn't really
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: pay attention to this game. So if you want Purdue,
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: I mean, that would be the reason. Why, is that
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: Michigan just might not totally focus and the fact that
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: it's a game of the low total because Michigan they're
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: more of a defensive team and a team that runs
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: the football, so they're not as built to cover numbers
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: seventy six percent to take seventy eight percent of the
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: cash on Michigan. But there they did go up actually
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: a little bit, from twenty and a half to twenty
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: one as a twenty one point favorite. Now slight lean
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: for me to taking the points to Purdue, But I
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: don't like that one that much either. The ones that
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: I like more with like the first few that I
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: talked about. Actually I like Texas quite a bit. Just
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: to point it out quickly, I like Texas and SMU
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: probably more than the rest of them that I talked about,
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: And then I would probably go maybe West Virginia then
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: Penn State. I don't know. If I had to like
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: rank the ones that I talked about so far, Kansas
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: State might make the mix there. Virginia I don't love,
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: so I don't know. I don't love road favorites, to
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: be honest. Oh all right, ESPN two seven thirty pm.
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: We have number eight in the country Georgia Tech undefeated.
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: I mean, I know I talked about in my season preview.
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: I talked about how I did like Georgia Tech. By
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: the way, season preview. If you want me to do
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: a college basketball season preview, I could tried to do that.
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: But I don't really know a whole lot about the
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: person now at all, so it'd be just me bullshitting
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: about like where the teams are currently ranked and just
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: trying to completely guess. So if you want me to
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: talk about that, I could, So maybe I'll do that
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: prior to when it starts on Monday. But back to
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: this Georgia Tech, Yeah, I said they would be in
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: the mix in the ACC That was my prediction because
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: I like their quarterback Haines King. He is good. But
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: is Georgia Tech really the eighth best team in the country? No,
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: absolutely not. Are they a top twenty five team? I
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: don't know. I actually don't know. Like I know a
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: lot of the betters that I listened to their power ratings,
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: like they're telling me that they're basically saying that Georgia
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: TACK is one of the most overrated teams in the country,
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: Like it's basically Georgia Tach BYU. Those are the teams
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: that are massively, massively overrated. So something to keep in
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: mind here. And a lot of those guys like the
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: idea of taking the points to the NC State this week,
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: and I don't disagree with them. I'm not gonna give
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: it out as a play because I just don't really
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: see a strong situation for it. But I do agree
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: that Georgia Tech. The stock is just really really high
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: on them right now, and it's way too high. I
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: think they're eight and no on the season, five and
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: zero in the ACC. They faced a pretty weak schedule though, Man,
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: I mean, what's Georgia Tech's best win. It's that win
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: against Clemson, I guess. And now how good is Clemson really?
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: I think they're below five hundred, so that wind doesn't
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: look very good anymore. And then like what have they done? Like?
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: They beat Colorado on the road. Colorado is an okay
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: Big twelve team. They beat Temple, who's pretty good for
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: an American team, but still, I mean it's Temple. They
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: had to go to overtime to beat Wake. Wake I
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: know has a bunch of wins, but Wake isn't exactly
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: that good. They've been playing a little bit above their
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: pay grade. Wake has. And then Georgia Tech beat Virginia Tech,
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: who's been in turmoil, you know, fired their coach. They
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: beat Duke, and when I think was a misleading result
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: in that when Duke I think had kind of a
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: crucial turnover in that one. I think Duke definitely had
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: chances to win that one, and then they beat Syracuse
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: last week. As we saw tonight, Syracuse is a terrible team.
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: So Georgia Tech has had a really really easy schedule. Man,
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: they're going to NC State. NC State's a competitive team.
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: They're sitting at five hundred. They've been up and down.
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: They still have Bailey, who's an experienced quarterback. Smothers, I
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: mean it's actually a decent running backs. This is Virginia
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: Tech team. I mean they're excusing NC stage. Why did
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: I say Virginia tach NC State? They're decently balanced team, man,
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: a decent offense here. They're coming off kind of an
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: ugly loss at Pitt. They've actually faced some more difficult schedule.
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: I think that Georgia TACK has because the NC State,
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: just like them, is also faced Duke in Virginia Tackle,
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: though they lost both those games, whereas Georgia Tech won
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: both of them. NC State has also faced Notre Dame
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: in Virginia, and Notre Dame's a legit team. Obviously, Notre
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: Dame is the best team that either of them have faced.
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: It's not even close. Although NC State got blown out
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: by them, but that was expected on the road as well.
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: And then NC State did also play again. They beat Virginia.
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: Actually that's Virginia's only loss. Virginia's only loss was to
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: NC State. It was a game where, Yeah, Virginia definitely
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: had chances to win that game. I think it was
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a misleading final. But NC State,
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: I mean, they could compete in this game for sure.
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: I think they're gonna show up for it, obviously, because
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: it's a ranked Georgia Tech coming into the airplace and
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: the line looks pretty short. Man. You got an undefeated
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: team ranked eighth in the country against an unranked five
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: hundred NC State team and it's the lines down from
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: six to five and a half. That looks way too
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: easy to lay the points with Georgia Tech. Sixty nine
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: percent of the tickets on Georgia Tech, fifty four percent
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: of the cash coming in on NC State. So the
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: money is saying NC State, I agree with it. It's
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: certainly not a low total though. It's at fifty eight.
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: So if you're taking the points, you know, I mean,
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: I still agree with it. I would agree with taking
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: the points in the NC stayed here. But if you're
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: doing that, you know the points are not worth as
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: much as maybe you would like. Because the totals also high,
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: it's expected to be a somewhat higher scoring game there,
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: So just to keep that in mind. ABC at seven
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: thirty pm Eastern Oklahoma eighteenth in the country against Tennessee
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: fourteenth in the country. Those are their rankings in this case.
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: I don't think those rankings are that far off. I
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: actually think maybe the teams are actually being a little
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: bit of them. Both of them, I think are actually
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: a little bit under ranked. Oklahoma has Oklahoma has a
• 46:29
  Speaker 1: really good defense. Other offense has been struggling recently since
• 46:32
  Speaker 1: Materier got hurt, like it looks like maybe something's not
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: right with him. He's come back, but it looks like
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: there's just something not right with him. Tennessee has a
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: really good offense. So generally this team this game is
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: defense versus offense, and Oklahoma is the defense, Tennessee is
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: the offense. I mean, that's generally the way that you
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: could look at this game. So yeah, you know me,
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: I like looking towards the better defense getting points, and
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: that is Oklahoma in this game. So is that the
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: way that I actually lead in this game. I don't know.
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: This is one of the tougher games for me to read. Man,
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: I tried to handicap this, and I'm like, yeah, I mean,
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: this is definitely not gonna be a game I'm gonna
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: give out as a play. Oklahoma the face since Matier
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: has come back, they face Texas. I mean, Texas is
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: an elite defense, so I mean you can kind of
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: you can kind of explain why Matier wasn't good there.
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: And that was Matier coming back from injury too. He
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: threw some picks in that one. South Carolina at least
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: their defense is fairly solid, and Matier didn't do well
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: in that one. Matier did do a little bit better
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: against Ole Miss last week. That was one of my
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: losses last week. I expected a better performance from him
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: in that game against an Old Miss team. It's really
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: just all offense and they don't really play defense that well.
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: So Oglaholma was coming off of that, and I think
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: you can kind of see this in two ways. You
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: could see Oklahoma maybe being in a bounced back spot
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: because they lost as a favorite to ole Miss. But
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: on the other hand, ole Miss was the higher ranked
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: team in that game, even though the osmakers told you
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma was actually the better of the two teams, which
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: is part of the reason why I laid the points.
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: But I also thought it was a good spot to
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: fadeal Miss, and it didn't happen. I mean, Oklahoma did
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: not get the job done for us. So again, Oklahoma
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: did lose as a favorite. But that was a big
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: game for them. I mean, they could have pulled off
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: a win overall Miss. It was ranked higher than they were,
• 48:21
  Speaker 1: and they fell short. So I could see it being
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: a bounce back spot for them, or I could see
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: it being a hangover spot for them. I don't know
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: which way it's gonna go. I mean, I don't think
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: they're gonna be like lacking and focused though, because they're
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: playing Tennessee, and I think you step it up whenever
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: you go and play Tennessee. Tennessee is coming off a
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: much easier game though against Kentucky. I mean that's somewhat
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: of a rivalry game. But Tennessee is just the much
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: better of those two teams right now, and Tennessee was
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: able to get the job done. I don't know if
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: they cover the number or not in this one they did,
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: they were only seven a half point favorites. Yeah, they
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: covered the number and that when they won by eighteen,
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: and they're coming back home here. So the spot actually
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: sets up better for Tennessee, I think in this game.
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: So this is actually a spot where I'm actually not
• 49:02
  Speaker 1: going to lean towards taking the points to the better defense,
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: although the money is actually disagree with me on this one.
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: I would actually lean to laying it with Tennessee. But
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: they're down for four and a half to three, so
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: there's actually reverse line moving against the public. The public
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: actually likes Tennessee because the public likes offense more than
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: they like defense, and they're probably looking at what these
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: teams did the last few weeks and they just they're
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: off the Oklahoma train because Matier hasn't been good, and
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: they're on this Tennessee train because Tennessee's offense looks good.
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: Seventy three percent of the tickets on Tennessee only fifty
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: nine percent of the cash, So the money is definitely
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: saying Oklahoma, and the line has moved towards Oklahoma. I'm
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: gonna actually disagree with it though in that one. I
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: think the spot is actually better for Tennessee based on
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: what those teams did last week. So rare spot where
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: I actually kind of lean against the market in that
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: one seven thirty, and that's not going to be a
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: play obviously for me. Seven thirty pm Eastern NBC. We
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: have a USC number two, twenty three in the country
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: at Nebraska. This is an interesting one too. I think
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: Nebraska is a little bit under the raidar right now. Man.
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: I mean, Nebraska plays good defense, and that's what you
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: want against the USC team that's one of the best
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: offenses in college football. But USC doesn't really play particularly
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: good defense. So Nebraska is another one of those teams.
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: Even though I said I don't really love Oklahoma in
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: their game, Nebraska is also a team that is the
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: better defense getting points here in this one against USC.
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: Looking at the market here, USC is down from a
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: five and a half point favorite to a four and
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: a half point favorite. Fifty three percent of the tickets
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: are on USC, fifty three percent of the cash, however,
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: coming in to Nebraska, so the money is saying Nebraska.
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: The public is slightly leaning towards USC here, so the
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: money says taking the points in Nebraska. I don't really
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: disagree with it in this game. I just don't really
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: see like a strong enough angle for it. Although USC
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: is coming off one of their big games of the
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: season against Notre Dame and they lost the game a
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: Notre Dame actually wound up I think covering in the
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: end by like a couple of points. And Notre Dame
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: was a survivor play for me that week because I
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: think in my game we couldn't use them for the
• 51:10
  Speaker 1: rest of the S season, so I was like, I'm
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: gonna use them here as a favorite, and they got
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: the job, and they just had to win it straight
• 51:17
  Speaker 1: up for me to get that one. But I also
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: leaned to Notre Dame covering in that one, and they did.
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: So if USC was playing immediately after that, I think
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: this would be a better spot to take Nebraska because
• 51:29
  Speaker 1: USC would be playing two games in a row on
• 51:32
  Speaker 1: the road, you know, coming up that big rivalry game
• 51:35
  Speaker 1: against Notre Dame, and they still are. But they had
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: a buy after that, so they're coming out of a
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: buy and they did go into the buy in a
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: bad note. So sometimes, again, like I said, when a
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: team goes into a buy and a bad note, sometimes
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: they will use that buy to fix some things, and
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: they don't have a big game up next, even though
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: it is a Friday primetime game and they're hosting it,
• 51:51
  Speaker 1: but it's against Northwestern, So I don't really think they're
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: gonna really look ahead to that. Yeah, So I could
• 51:59
  Speaker 1: see this going a couple of different ways here, So
• 52:01
  Speaker 1: I don't think it's really that negative of a spot
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: for USC. Although even so, they are still coming off
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: a run of three ranked teams in a row, including
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: two big games against Michigan and Notre Dame where they
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: pulled off a big win over Michigan and then they
• 52:13
  Speaker 1: lost at Notre Dame. Another reason to maybe look against
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: USC by the ways that USC has not done well
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: when they've traveled out of the Pacific time zone. They
• 52:23
  Speaker 1: have three road games this year, which are all I
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: believe in the Central time zone against Purdue, Illinois, and
• 52:28
  Speaker 1: Notre Dame, and they didn't cover any of them their
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: own three against the spread in those three games, and
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: they lost two of them out right to Illinois Notre Dame.
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: Not gonna blame them for losing to Notre Dame, and
• 52:40
  Speaker 1: Notre Dame was a big favorite there. Notre Dame is
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: definitely the better team losing to Illinois is a seven
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: point favorite, and we see that Illinois is not very good.
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: That was not a great game for USC. So USC
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: they don't travel that well in the Big Ten men
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: and that includes last year. They actually they struggled when
• 52:57
  Speaker 1: they traveled last year or two. I know that was
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: their first year in the Big Ten. Now this is
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: their second year, but they're still not traveling well. Nebraska
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: did play last week, but they had an easy game
• 53:08
  Speaker 1: against Northwestern. They were a big favorite in the game
• 53:10
  Speaker 1: in Nebraska actually didn't do particularly well in that game,
• 53:13
  Speaker 1: the only one by seven, which I think they probably
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: should Actually I don't know. The game was tied. What
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: am I saying? The game was tied in the fourth quarter,
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: So Nebraska actually kind of had to escape that game
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: as a pretty big favorite against pretty ugly Northwestern team.
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I think Nebraska might be in a bit
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: of a bounced back spot. In Nebraska, they haven't been
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: very good as a favorite this year because they're more
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: of a defense oriented team. But they're an underdog this time,
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: so I leaned taking the boys in Nebraska. You're getting
• 53:44
  Speaker 1: a little bit less value doing it because it's another
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: game with a pretty high total at fifty nine, So
• 53:48
  Speaker 1: just something to keep in mind there. That's because USC
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: is really good offensively, So yeah, slaightly for me to
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: taking the boys with Nebraska though. In that one and
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: then ESPN late night at ten fifteen pm Eastern. Cincinnati
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: ranks seventeenth in the country, seven and one overall and undefeated,
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: five and zero in the Big Twelve, going to Utah,
• 54:10
  Speaker 1: who's ranked twenty fourth in the country, six and two
• 54:13
  Speaker 1: overall and three and two in the Big Twelve. So
• 54:16
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati is a one lost team, undefeated in conference, ranked
• 54:19
  Speaker 1: seventeen in the country. Utah's ranked twenty fourth in the country,
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: so Utah's rank seven spots lower than that. Yet you
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: look at the number, Utah is a ten point favorite,
• 54:28
  Speaker 1: a slit. I mean, the oddsmakers are telling you what
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: you need to know here, man, They're telling you that
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: the rankings makers have this one very very wrong. And
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati is overrated for sure. Like I don't think they're
• 54:41
  Speaker 1: actually a top twenty five team. I don't think they're
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: really worthy of that. They're a pretty good offense, but
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: they're not a very good defense. Utah is under the radar,
• 54:49
  Speaker 1: and you know me, I was high on Utah going
• 54:51
  Speaker 1: into the season. They were my pick to win the
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: Big Twelve to start the season, which it looks like
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: they may not be able to do that now, but
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: I think Utah is still really goo good and Utah
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: probably should have won that game against BYU. I'm still
• 55:03
  Speaker 1: bitter about that, even though I didn't have a play
• 55:05
  Speaker 1: on that one. I just BYU is pissing me off
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: because I'm constantly like saying, you gotta fade these guys,
• 55:11
  Speaker 1: and I did with that Iowa State one and got
• 55:14
  Speaker 1: fucked because of turnovers. BYU just pisses me off because
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: they keep winning as an overrated team. Utah is one
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: of the most underrated teams in college football right now though,
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: man and yeah, you could have laid seven on it
• 55:25
  Speaker 1: earlier in the weekend. Now they're up to ten. I
• 55:28
  Speaker 1: don't know if that was all like just from the
• 55:31
  Speaker 1: money coming into Utah because of or if it was
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: because of Utah's quarterback situation. I think some of it
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: was the quarterback situation, so we didn't really know if
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: Utah's quarterback Dampier was gonna start this game, and I
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: think it looks like now he is, So that number
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: is up to ten, so he will play for Utah.
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: I don't know if it matters a ton who their
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: quarterback is, although Dampier is their best quarterback. But Utah
• 55:53
  Speaker 1: they're pretty balanced offense. They run the football a lot,
• 55:56
  Speaker 1: their physical offense. They don't rely on their quarterback as
• 55:59
  Speaker 1: much as a lot of other teams do. And Utah
• 56:01
  Speaker 1: plays good, physical, deepense and that's why they're good in
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: the Big Twelve because they play against a bunch of
• 56:06
  Speaker 1: finesse teams like Cincinnati, So I think Cincinnati might struggle
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: with Utah's physicality. Man, Cincinnati is more of an offense
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: than a defense. Utah probably the lesser of the two
• 56:20
  Speaker 1: offenses year, but they're much better depense. Although I know
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: you're laying points of view if you want to play
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: Utah here, but I would still do that if I
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: was gonna play this game. It looks like such a
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: misleading number here. It's one of those rankings makers versus
• 56:32
  Speaker 1: odds makers disparities here in a big way, Like I
• 56:35
  Speaker 1: think this is the biggest favorite that we've ever or
• 56:38
  Speaker 1: the biggest favorite that we've seen this season, at the
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: very least as far as like teams that are the
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: lesser of the two ranked teams, like in a game
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: where of the lower ranked team being favored. I think
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: this is the highest favorite, the heaviest favorite that we've
• 56:53
  Speaker 1: seen this year, and it's the highest that I can
• 56:55
  Speaker 1: ever remember. Actually, seventy two percent of the cash on
• 56:58
  Speaker 1: Utah as well, with sixty two sending the tickets on Cincinnati.
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: Public's gonna see the rankings and the records and just
• 57:04
  Speaker 1: want to go with Cincinnati, and the public loves the
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: better offense too. I wouldn't agree with that. I would
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: go with Utah in this game, you know me. I mean,
• 57:12
  Speaker 1: I just continue to be a fan of Utah because
• 57:14
  Speaker 1: I just think that you get value on Utah because
• 57:17
  Speaker 1: of the style that they play in. Because they've lost
• 57:19
  Speaker 1: a couple of games Cincinnati, I'm not totally impressed by
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: their resume and that they had that one win over
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: Iowa State, which I told you Cincinnati was gonna win
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: that game. I probably should have given it out as
• 57:31
  Speaker 1: a play. I didn't, but Iowa States overrated man and
• 57:35
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati's face a pretty easy schedule. Me The best team
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: that they played I think was Nebraska at Arrowhead to
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: start the season. Cincinnati played pretty well in that game,
• 57:43
  Speaker 1: but they lost the game. I mean they played competitively,
• 57:46
  Speaker 1: they played they actually played well defensively in that game
• 57:49
  Speaker 1: for whatever reason. But since then they've had a week schedule, man,
• 57:52
  Speaker 1: I mean the best teams they've beaten or Kansas on
• 57:55
  Speaker 1: the road and then Iowa stayed at home. Those are
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: their best wins. And then I guess Baylor last week
• 58:00
  Speaker 1: that was a decent winmor I kind of thought Baylor
• 58:02
  Speaker 1: set up nicely to cover that spread and they didn't
• 58:04
  Speaker 1: do it. But Cincinnati is definitely gonna kind of be
• 58:08
  Speaker 1: in for it here. Man, having to go to Elevation
• 58:10
  Speaker 1: play a late night game. This is the furthest West
• 58:13
  Speaker 1: that Cincinnati has to go, and they're gonna have to
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: play a game. It's gonna be really late on their
• 58:16
  Speaker 1: biological clock too. So I would lay the points with
• 58:19
  Speaker 1: Utah and this one I I was gonna play it.
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: And as far as Utah is a scheduling spot, yeah,
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: I mean they might be feeling a little bit high
• 58:27
  Speaker 1: on themselves because they just pummeled Colorado fifty three to seven.
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: Whenever you score fifty plus points, I mean you're gonna
• 58:33
  Speaker 1: be feeling pretty high on yourselves. But Damier actually was
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: out of that game Fickland came in. It was a
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: dual threat quarterback that they have, although so is damp Beier.
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: So either way, I just don't think it really mattered
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: that much. I don't think they're gonna be that high
• 58:47
  Speaker 1: on themselves when they're playing a rank Cincinnati team here
• 58:50
  Speaker 1: on ESPN. So I don't think they're gonna, like, you know,
• 58:52
  Speaker 1: have a letdown spot or anything like that, you know,
• 58:55
  Speaker 1: just because they scored a ton of points here. But
• 58:57
  Speaker 1: another part of their offense that I forgot to point
• 58:59
  Speaker 1: out is that their quarterbacks are dual threat quarterbacks, Dampier
• 59:03
  Speaker 1: being one of them as well. So I would lay
• 59:05
  Speaker 1: it with Utah if I was gonna play it. All right,
• 59:08
  Speaker 1: Let's see, are there any other games I want to
• 59:09
  Speaker 1: talk about before I get to my three actual plays here?
• 59:12
  Speaker 1: This will be a shorter a shorter version of the
• 59:16
  Speaker 1: college football game a football show for once. I think
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: what other games that I want to point out though
• 59:21
  Speaker 1: at all? Duke Clemson I guess I'll talk about because
• 59:25
  Speaker 1: it's a non ranked matchup. But these two teams are
• 59:29
  Speaker 1: you know, they're not horrible teams. They're both in the Carolinas.
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: Of course, Duke is coming out of a bye. I
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: think both teams actually might be. Duke went into the
• 59:38
  Speaker 1: buy and a bad note. They lost to Georgia tack.
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: It was a tough game. Duke had some opportunities to
• 59:43
  Speaker 1: maybe win that game. So I think it is at
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: least a positive that Duke went into the buy and
• 59:48
  Speaker 1: a bad note that can use that buy to fix
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: some things. So I think Duke will show up for
• 59:52
  Speaker 1: this one a. Clemson is also coming out of a bye,
• 59:55
  Speaker 1: and they also went into the buy and a bad
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: note that they lost to SMU in the ACC Championship rematch,
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 1: So both teams are kind of in similar spots there.
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 1: Club Nick was hurt though, and is he out for
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 1: the season. I don't know. Let me see, I don't
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 1: even know man club Nick was out for the last game.
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 1: Is he coming back? I don't know. I want to
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 1: know if he's coming back. He did not play against SMU.
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 1: We know that it was an ankle injury. It doesn't
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 1: look like it's season ending or anything, though, So if
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 1: Clubnick is coming back, then that also means it's gonna
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 1: be a reverse injured player spot, right because Clemson played
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 1: a game without him and now he's gonna come back,
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: so they have to work him back in. Yeah, the
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 1: bye can kind of help with that a little bit.
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 1: So if you have the buye, you can like get
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 1: your reps with that guy and it can help him
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 1: come back from injury. But still he's gonna come back.
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 1: Maybe the team's gonna, you know, still have to kind
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 1: of get up to speed with him again and whatever.
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 1: So there are slightly more indicators for me on the
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 1: Duke side here, So I would lean to taking the
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: boys with Duke. Clemson is a three and a half
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 1: point favorite, which seems pretty low for Clemson Duke. Clemson
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 1: game against Duke at home, but the Oswegers are telling
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 1: you these teams are actually about even now, which is crazy.
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 1: Fifty three percent of the tickets on Clemson, fifty six
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on Duke, So the cash is
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 1: indicating on Duke. I'm not gonna disagree with it. I
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 1: would lean to taking the points with Duke as well
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 1: in that one, if I was gonna do it, you
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 1: seef at Baylor's somewhat interesting where it's Baylor. I mean,
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: they're a team that relies mostly on their offense. They've
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 1: lost a couple of games in a row now though,
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 1: to TCU, which is a pretty big state in state
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 1: game there between Baylor and TCU. Then they lost of
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati last week, a ranked Cincinnati game where I thought
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 1: a ranked Cincinnati team, I mean a game where I
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 1: thought Baylor was gonna show up better than they did
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 1: and they didn't. So I don't know what their mindset
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: is going to be coming out of that. And then
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 1: they do have Utah coming up next, although it's after
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 1: a BUYE. I don't know, man. And as far as
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 1: you see F, I mean you see F coming in.
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 1: They've been a mediocre team this year. Two they just
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 1: broke a law streak and they did go into a
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 1: bye though, but they did break a law streak going
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 1: into that buy, so I could see that going two
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 1: ways for UCF. When you break a law streak with
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 1: a win and it's a win, that's not gonna make
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 1: you overconfident because it was a win over West Virginia,
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 1: sometimes that will give you some new momentum. But the
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 1: problem is they went into a bye after that, so
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: they couldn't play right away with that new momentum. So
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 1: they went into the buy and kind of a kind
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 1: of a bad time, So I don't know if I
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 1: necessarily love it for UCF. The style that UCF plays
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 1: is good to counter Baylor because U SEEF runs the
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 1: football a lot and they slow the game down and
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 1: play defense, and that's what you want when you're playing
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 1: against Baylor, who is mostly an offensive team, and they
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 1: kind of want to go I think a little bit faster.
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 1: So in that respect, it sets up decently for UCF.
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 1: The money is saying U CEF here. Baylor's actually down
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 1: from a six and a half Poy favorite to a
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 1: three and a half Boy favorite, So I don't know
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: if there's like an injury or something. I don't think
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 1: their quarterback is injured or anything. Out Robertson. I don't
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 1: think he's hurt, So I don't really know what spurred
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 1: that line. Movie you have fifty two the tickets and
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 1: sixty two percent of the cash on UCFS. The money
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 1: is indicating on UCF. I'll agree with it, but it's
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 1: a slight agreement in that one. All right. What other
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 1: games that I even want to talk about here? A
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 1: lot of these games are just not really that interesting.
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 1: Army and Air Force I'll talk about because it's one
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 1: of the Commander in Chief Trophy games the Armed Forces,
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 1: even though both teams are a little bit down. Air
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 1: Force is definitely down this year. Air Force did just
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 1: break a low streak though they got their first FBS
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 1: win of the season against Wyoming, but then they went
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 1: into a buy. So, just like what I just said
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 1: with whatever team I was just talking about, who was
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 1: I talking about, I don't even remember u SEF, I
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 1: think they couldn't continue that momentum because they went into
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 1: a bye. After that, they beat Wyoming, finally got a
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 1: win there, and then they had to go into a by,
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 1: so that buy can maybe like stop that momentum that
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: they would have had. They're going up against Army. Army
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 1: is the better of these two teams. The Air Force
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 1: has been really really bad defensively, although air Force has
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 1: actually been able to throw the ball a little bit,
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 1: which is a little bit of a dynamic that these
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 1: Armed Forces teams don't usually have. Army is also coming
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 1: out of a buy, and I think that buy came
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 1: at a better time for them because they lost to
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 1: Tulane going into the buy, which is a pretty big
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: game for them. Tu Lane's been pretty good this year,
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 1: so I think that buy is actually going to be
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 1: more helpful to Army because they went into the buy
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 1: in a bad note. They're having to go out on
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 1: the road again here, but at least they went into
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 1: a buy that can kind of give them some more
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 1: time to travel out there, and they're not like totally
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 1: unused to traveling out there. However, I want to say
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 1: that it's not like they're not used to doing that
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 1: because they think they have to go two Air Force
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 1: every other year. At the very least Army is getting
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 1: some of the money. It looks like, and I agree
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 1: with it. If I was gonna play this, I would
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 1: lean to Army throw out from a pick them to
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 1: a one point road favorite. Here. Fifty eight percent of
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 1: the tickets around air Force. So the public for whatever
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 1: reason likes air Force and only fifty of the cash
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 1: on Air Force. The money is saying Army. It's a
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 1: pretty low total down to forty eight and a half,
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 1: and a lot of times you want to just look
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 1: towards unders and these Armed Forces games because they run
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 1: the football primarily, they're just you know, they're triple option attacks.
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 1: But the money is kind of saying over as we see,
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 1: fifty percent of tickets on the under, but fifty five
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the over. It's a little
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 1: bit different this year with the Air Force because, as
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 1: I said, air Force can throw the football a little
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 1: bit this year, and their defense is really bad, So
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 1: I could actually see that game going over the total,
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 1: whereas usually with these Armed Forces games you kind of
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 1: want to look towards unders historically, but maybe not in
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 1: that one. But I think the better way to play
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 1: that is Army on the side. You know, I could
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 1: see Army definitely being able to score against this bad
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 1: Air Force defense. Or Army over their team total might
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 1: be a way to look. I don't do a whole
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 1: lot with team totals, but if you kind of like
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 1: the over and you're kind of like a particular side,
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 1: that seems to naturally makes sense as well. Navy at
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 1: North Texas is a pretty big game because you have
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 1: an undefeated Navy team against a one loss in North
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 1: Texas team. By the way, everybody saw North Texas lose
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 1: really badly in prime time to South Florida, who's an
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 1: okay team. But now people are gonna look at this
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 1: and see, oh my god, Navy's undefeated in North Texas
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 1: has one loss, yet North Texas is a seven point favorite,
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 1: So the oddsmakers are telling you North Texas is actually
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 1: the better of these two teams, and I agree with that.
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 1: I would agree with laying the points with North Texas
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 1: if I was gonna do this. Sixty percent of the
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 1: tickets are on Navy, fifty one percent of the cash
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 1: on North Texas, so the money is saying North Texas
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 1: as well. Navy hasn't lost yet, but they haven't played
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 1: anybody good really yet. I mean, their best win is
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 1: on the road at Temple, so there's not a whole
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 1: lot you can take away from that. Man. What has
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 1: this Navy team done yet, really, I mean nothing so far.
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 1: So they have not been tested yet. This is gonna
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 1: be a big game. But North Texas has been tested
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 1: a little bit more, just because they played South Florida
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 1: and North Texas already played a Service academy. They played
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 1: an Army earlier this year, so that should help them
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 1: prepare for Navy. Even though Navy's better than Army, it
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 1: at least means that North Texas has faced a triple
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 1: option attack already, so that's a good thing. Although they
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 1: didn't do that well, They had to go to overtime
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 1: against Army, So yeah, they struggled a little bit, but
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 1: I think at least they could kind of get that
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 1: out of their system, and now they have faced a
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 1: triple option already. So I would lay the points with
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 1: North Texas if I was gonna do this, although we
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 1: are seeing North Texas in a spot where they're coming
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 1: off mess to makers historic performance with six hundred and
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 1: eight passing yards, which was I believe a record for
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 1: all levels of football in the United States throughout all
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 1: of history. So he could be in like maybe a
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 1: personal letdown spot after that. That kind of worries me
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 1: a little bit about North Texas. I still would lean
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 1: in North excess in that one, but a little bit
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 1: difficult to uh to want to actually get involved with that.
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 1: Arizona State at Iowa State, I'll talking about because it's
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 1: a game between two decent teams and the Big twelve
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 1: that are you know, still I don't know if I
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 1: want to say that they're in the mix for the
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 1: Big twelve, but there's still alright teams. They're both above
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 1: five hundred. Arizona State just lost their quarterback for the season,
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 1: Man Levitt. He came back again. They lost to Houston,
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 1: he got hurt again and now he's out for the season.
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 1: So yes, it is an injured player spot for Arizona
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 1: State again here, because that means Levitt's gonna be out.
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 1: That means it's gonna have to step up their game
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 1: again with the first game without their injured quarterback. There,
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 1: you know that means you're gonna maybe get a little
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 1: bit of value on them. They're gonna step up their play.
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 1: But they did not do well when they were in
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 1: that spot before. They were at Utah. The other time
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 1: they were in the injured player spot and they got
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 1: blown out by Utah. Utah is better than Iowa State though,
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 1: so something to keep in mind there. So there're gonna
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 1: be some conflicting factors in this game. Man. For me,
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 1: I was State just coming off a loss. I think
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 1: I said right to excuse me, not Iowa State. Arizona
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 1: State's coming off a loss. I think I said right
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 1: yeah to Houston. So maybe you could see that as
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 1: maybe being a bounced back spot for Arizona State too,
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 1: because they did lose as a favorite against Houston last week.
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 1: I believe they were a favorite, ain't They were at
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 1: home I think they'd be a favorite anyway. Iowa State.
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 1: They're coming off a misleading loss though man to BYU.
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 1: I don't want to really think about it because that
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 1: was a loss for me. I gave out Iowa State.
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 1: Thought it was a great spot for Iowa State coming
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 1: out of a bye. They probably should have won the game.
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 1: I mean they were winning the game by ten or
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 1: early in the game, and then the turnovers were the
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 1: factor in this game. Man, Iowa State out game BYU
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 1: by eighty five yards in the game, but they were
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 1: minus four in turnovers. They had more first downs, they
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 1: had more time of possession, and yeah, they lost entirely
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 1: because of turnovers, and one of them was a pick
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 1: six that really kind of swung the game. So that
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 1: pissed me off. So it does mean an Iowa State.
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 1: It's coming up of a big game against YU. But
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 1: it was a game where they looked worse than they
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 1: actually were. And I do think i Always State will
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 1: show up for this game because this is a big
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 1: revenge game. It's the big twelve championship revenge game for
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 1: last year because if you remember, Arizona State embarrassed Iowa
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 1: State in that game last year in the Big Twelve Championship.
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 1: The winner of that game was going to go to
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 1: the playoff, and Arizona State beat Iowa State forty five
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 1: to nineteen. So do you think Iowa State's gonna remember that? Yeah?
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 1: I think so as well. So, I mean, this is
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 1: a difficult game. No, I don't want to bring up
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 1: page infa. What are you doing? Man, It's a difficult
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 1: game to handicap man because I know it is the
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 1: injured player spot for Arizona State and debatably maybe a
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 1: bounce back spot for them. But I'll lean slightly to
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 1: Iowa State here. I mean, you don't get the best
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 1: number on them anymore. Though they're up from a five
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 1: point favorite to a seven and a half point favorite.
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 1: I think some of that was because of it being
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 1: announced that he's definitely not coming back for the rest
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 1: of the season. Fifty four percent of the tickets are
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 1: on Arizona State, so the public kind of wants Arizona
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 1: State here for whatever reason. Sixty percent of the cash
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 1: on Iowa State. But again, you're not getting the best
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 1: number on it. Now you have to lay seven and
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 1: a half with them. It would obviously be better to lay
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 1: seven or less because seven is the key number here.
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 1: I don't want to really, yeah, I don't want to
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 1: deal with it. It's a game where there's some conflicting
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 1: factors there. Again, like I said, but I think the
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 1: revenge angle is kind of what puts it over the
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 1: top for me for Iowa State. But yeah, that's not
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 1: gonna be a game I'm gonna get involved in. I'm
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 1: gonna talk about UNLV in New Mexico. UNLV they took
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 1: their first loss man and it was a big one
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 1: against Boise State. I mean that was a big game
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 1: at UNLV against Boise State. I mean that was the
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 1: game that could have maybe propelled UNLV towards maybe potentially
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 1: making the College Football Playoff and they lost that game.
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 1: So does that mean it's gonna be a dream pressures
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 1: out for UNLV. I don't know, because I don't know
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 1: if a kind of one loss Mountain West team that
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 1: winds up winning the Mountain West Championship still make the
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 1: College Football Playoff maybe, So I don't know if I'm
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 1: ready to totally say that it's a dream crusher for UNLV,
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 1: but pretty brutal loss, but it might help them out
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 1: a little bit with the fact that they did go
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 1: into a bye after that, So if they were having
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 1: to play again right away, I think I would say, yeah,
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 1: like you want to fade UNLV. I still think maybe
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 1: you do want to fade them here, but I'm a
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 1: little bit less bullish on it than I would be
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 1: if they were playing again right away. But that was
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 1: still one of their That was like their biggest game
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 1: of the season man against Boise State. They lost. The
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 1: game was their only loss on the season. I've been
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 1: talking about how overrated I think UNLV is as well,
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 1: so all of that coming into play here, and sometimes
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 1: when you take that first loss, especially when it's a
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 1: big in a big game like that, it'll hang you
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 1: over to the next game. Just the fact they had
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 1: to buy might help them out a little bit with that.
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 1: As far as the New Mexico, I mean, they're looking
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 1: to get their six win to become Bowl eligible. They
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 1: will I think at some point. I mean, well, I mean,
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 1: they get a couple of winnable games coming up next,
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 1: so they don't really necessarily need to win this one.
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 1: But I think they'll be more focused here though. They
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 1: did play last week against Utah State, but they had
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 1: a nice, uh pretty a convincing win over Utah State
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 1: last week, so I think their momentum is just going
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 1: to kind of continue into this one. I do think
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 1: New Mexico will show up for this game, so I
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 1: kind of lean to New Mexico in this one. Part
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 1: of it is, yeah, just because I think UNLV is
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 1: still an overrated team. They're down from five to four
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 1: and a half is a home favorite here, and when
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 1: you look at these teams records, you think that maybe UNLV,
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 1: because they're a one loss team, should be favored by
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 1: a little bit more than that, which is not the case.
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 1: So it looks maybe kind of too easy to lay
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 1: the points at UNLV in like kind of the bounce
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 1: back here, like oh, they're only losses to boys, of
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 1: course they're gonna beat a worse team like New Mexico.
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 1: New Mexico fifty three percent of the tickets on them,
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 1: though I don't know if that's really accurate, but sixty
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 1: one percent of the cash as well. The line has
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 1: moved in their direction a little bit. I think New
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 1: Mexico is probably the correct side and that one. Will
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 1: it be a play for me? No? No? Well not
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 1: all right, Let's see what else was I gonna I
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 1: don't know which other of these games I was really
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 1: gonna talk about here. I know I'm skipping a lot
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 1: of the lower conference games, but most of them I
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 1: don't really find that interesting. So when I see like
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 1: a really interesting one, I will talk about it. But uh,
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 1: let me see, uh Michigan State and Minnesota. I don't
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 1: know if I saw that much of an angle here,
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 1: but I will point out that Michigan State did just
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 1: have one of their biggest games of the season against Michigan.
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 1: I mean, they always get up for that game and
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 1: they fell short. Now they're gonna go they gotta go
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 1: on the road to Minnesota. I don't think they're really
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 1: gonna be totally focused on Minnesota, although I know Minnesota
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 1: has a winning record, so maybe that gives me a
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 1: little bit of hesitation as far as saying the Michigan
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 1: State won't show up. And the other thing is that
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 1: Michigan State still doesn't have a win in conference, and
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 1: I guess technically they're still fighting to become Bowl eligible,
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 1: though it's kind of unlikely at this point, so they
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 1: do have some reasons to maybe still show up and
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 1: try to win these games, you know, being winless at
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 1: conference is still kind of a motivator. But they do
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 1: have Penn State up. Actually it is that for a buye,
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 1: but it does look a little bit sandwiching to me,
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 1: even though Penn State is down this year and I
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 1: don't know again, Minnesota is an above five hundred team.
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 1: Minnesota's coming off an embarrassing loss to Iowa, though losing
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 1: forty one to three. I mean, Iowa, they were a
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 1: very good defensive team, but losing like that is ridiculous.
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 1: Minnesota is in a letdown spot. I did lean to
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 1: Iowa in that game, but I didn't think I was
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 1: gonna score forty one points on. Minnesota had upset done
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 1: Nebraska the game before that, so it was definitely a
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 1: letdown spot that Minnesota was in. I think the spot
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 1: does set up better for on Minnesota to bounce back here.
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 1: It looks like a little bit of a sandwich spot
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 1: on Michigan State to me, although the money's coming in
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 1: on Michigan State, but I actually disagree with it. Minnesota
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 1: is down from five and a half to three and
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 1: a half year, so the money strongly agreeing on Michigan
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 1: State for whatever reason. I think, maybe just because Minnesota
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 1: is a little bit overrated based on what the record
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 1: looks like. Seventy eight percent of the tickets around Minnesota,
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 1: sixty three percent of the cash coming in on Michigan State,
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 1: So the money's coming in. Yeah, on taking the points
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 1: to the Michigan State, But I do actually lean to
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 1: Minnesota slightly in that one. Pitt at Stanford. I kind
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 1: of had an angle that I was looking at on
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 1: this one. Pitt just got their six wins, so their
• 1:16:18
  Speaker 1: Bowl eligible, and I'm not sure that they really consider
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 1: themselves to be like like an ACC can tender this year.
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 1: So I think getting that six win to become Bowl
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 1: eligible is pretty decent. On theough Pit, I mean, it
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 1: seems like they're always in a bowl. I mean they
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 1: were in a bowl last year too, so I don't
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 1: know if that's gonna be like that big of a
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 1: deal for them. And they are still one lost ACC team,
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 1: so maybe they still think they're in the mix for
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 1: the ACC. So maybe I'll dial it back a little
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 1: bit on like his pit gonna be overconfident for that reason,
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 1: but maybe they still will be because they did just
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 1: crush NC State last week and now they have to
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 1: go to the Pacific Coast for the first time this year,
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 1: which is not an easy spot to be in, and
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 1: they do have Notre Dame up next, so though it's
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 1: after a buye, they got Notre Dame, Georgia Tech and Miami,
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 1: so all ranked teams to finish the season, and those
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 1: are gonna be bigger games for them. So it is
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 1: still I think a bad spot for them going to
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 1: Stanford here, weird travel spot for pitt I'm gonna go
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 1: to the Pacific Coast for the first time Stanford they
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 1: are having They're having to travel back. So this is
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 1: the one thing that I worry about with Stanford is
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 1: that they've been zig zagging all over the place. Man Saturday,
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 1: October eleventh, they were in Texas to face SMU, then
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 1: they came home to the Pacific Coast. They beat Florida
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 1: State in a big upset. Then last week I thought
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 1: they were in a bad spot, let down spot. Off
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 1: of that upset, they had to go all the way
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 1: back to the East coast. They got crushed by Miami.
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 1: Now they're coming back home again, so they're doing a
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 1: lot of travel. So that's what worries me a little
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 1: bit here. Although I do think the spot is a
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 1: little bit worse for Pitt here, but I don't really
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 1: want to give out a taking the points with Stanford
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 1: just because of all the travel that they're doing, although
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 1: it is gonna be a weird travel spot for Pitt two.
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 1: I'll lead it taking the points with Stanford, but I'm
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 1: not as strong on it. Pits up from fourteen to
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 1: fourteen and a half here as a double digit favorite here,
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 1: seventy five percent of tickets seventy six percent of the
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 1: cash on PIT. But I don't know if that one
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 1: percentage difference really is gonna that doesn't matter that much
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 1: to me right now. I'd have to see how the
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 1: market like shapes up a little bit. But Pit is
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 1: definitely the public side there, So just something to keep
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 1: in mind there. As far as the rest of these games,
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna give up one more play on one of
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 1: these unranked games. Other than that, I don't see a
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 1: whole lot going on here as far as the rest
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 1: of these games are concerned. Uh, yeah, there are any
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 1: other games they even want to talk about here? Maybe not.
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 1: Maybe I'll keep it as a little bit of a
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 1: shorter Uh, I'm gonna talk about Kentucky Auburn and then
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 1: I'll give up my plays and then I'll get out
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 1: of here. Yeah, Kentucky and Auburn SEC Networks, seven thirty pm.
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 1: This is a little bit of an interesting one. Kentucky.
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 1: They're coming off playing three big games in a row
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 1: against ranked teams Man against Georgia, Texas, and then Tennessee.
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 1: But they did have a bye before the Texas win.
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 1: If you remember, I gave out Kentucky on the show
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 1: against Texas and they were able to cover and they
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 1: almost won that game. And then after that game, I
• 1:19:10
  Speaker 1: thought they were in a little bit of maybe a
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 1: letdown spot coming off of that against Tennessee and they
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 1: did lose, and they failed to cover against Tennessee last week.
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 1: But I think I ultimately leaned to taking the points
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 1: with the Kentucky in that one because I think Tennessee
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 1: was also in a bad spot coming off the Alabama game.
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 1: But I think I should have disagreed with myself in
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 1: that one because Kentucky they had almost beaten Texas man,
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 1: so I mean coming off of that, that was a
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 1: bad spot for them. They lost, they didn't cover against Tennessee.
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 1: Now they're going to Auburn. They do a Florida up next.
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 1: I mean, are they're gonna overlook Auburn for Florida? I
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 1: don't know. But off of that run that Kentucky just
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 1: made against those three teams, yeah, I don't really love it.
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 1: And Auburn's sitting at four and four. I still think
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 1: they're better than this four and four record. Would I indicate?
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 1: Auburn actually got a little bit of a reprieve last
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 1: week and they won at Arkansas, And I think that's
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 1: actually good for Auburn because Auburn had had a run
• 1:20:03
  Speaker 1: of four ranked teams in a row and they lost
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 1: all four games, and they actually played pretty competitively in
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 1: all four games. So this Auburn team I think is
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 1: actually better than people think they are. I think they're
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 1: a bit under the radar right now for that reason.
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 1: I think that win is good against Arkansas is little
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 1: to end they're losing momentum. Interestingly for Auburn, they actually
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 1: took Jackson Arnold out of the game. He was their
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 1: quarterback and they actually replaced him, and I don't think
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 1: it matters that much, but it is just kind of
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 1: interesting that Auburn's changing with their quarterback as even though
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 1: Arnold is like a decent dual threat. But Auburn they
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 1: like to run the football. They got Cobb as the
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 1: running back. He's been pretty good this year. So this
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 1: Auburn team, they're fairly balanced all around. They played decent defense,
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 1: balanced offense, a little bit more of a rushing attack,
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 1: I think, and I think they can handle Kentucky, although
• 1:20:50
  Speaker 1: Kentucky is a better defense than offense. Kentucky is a
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 1: game is a team excusely that also likes to kind
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 1: of run the football and play defense. But I think
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 1: the spot does set up a little bit better for
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 1: Auburn in this one. And I think Auburn is just undervalue.
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 1: I mean, the oddsbeakers are telling you Auburn's the significantly
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 1: better team is there, up from a ten point favorite
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 1: to an eleven point favorite, and they are taking the
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 1: money here. Sixty six percent of the tickets, sixty sex.
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 1: I have sex sixty times during this game, sixty six
• 1:21:20
  Speaker 1: percent of the ticket, seventy four percent of the cash
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 1: on auburns. The money seems to be coming in an Auburn,
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 1: but it is also expected to be low scoring because
• 1:21:28
  Speaker 1: these teams are defense, and so I worry about laying
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 1: a double digit favorite in a game like that as well,
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 1: total down from forty seven to forty five, sixty two
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets on the over, only fifty percent of
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 1: the cash on the over. So that does worry me
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 1: a little bit in that one. So I have some
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 1: reservations about actually laying the points of the Auburn. It
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 1: seems like the money's coming in towards the under in
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 1: that one. Is what I should say. I'm out of
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 1: my mind, man, I don't even know what I'm saying
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 1: at this point. Actually, I'm going to talk about a
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 1: few of these other games real quick. Washington State out
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 1: of Oregon State and CBS. I feel like I have
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 1: to because this is the only PAC twelve pack two
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 1: matchup possible because they're the only two teams in this
• 1:22:12
  Speaker 1: conference and Washington's a four and four team in Oregon
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 1: State's one and seven. Yet Washington State's only a three
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 1: and a half point favorite, So like what gifts, it
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 1: looks way too easy to lay the points with Washington
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 1: State here. They got ninety three percent of the tickets
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 1: and only ninety two percent of the cash, So I
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 1: would look towards taking the points with Oregon State here.
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 1: Man Washington State. I know, they've played competitively against some
• 1:22:36
  Speaker 1: pretty decent teams. I mean against Old Miss, against Virginia.
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 1: They caught those teams in bad spots tholthough Washington State
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 1: was also in a bad spot against Virginia, but they
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 1: both were. But look at the travel that Washington States
• 1:22:48
  Speaker 1: had to do them, man, they had to play three
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 1: straight games on the road, although there was a bye
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 1: after going to Colorado State, but they had to go
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 1: to Ole Miss, then Virginia, and then they came back home.
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 1: They actually beat Toledo in what I thought was kind
• 1:22:59
  Speaker 1: of a bad spot for Washington State. If you're doing
• 1:23:01
  Speaker 1: all that travel and after playing really well as a
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 1: big underdog, I thought Toledo would win that game. There
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 1: was a little bit of a misleading final with Washington
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 1: State winning twenty eight to seven because statistically Toledo played
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 1: that game a little bit closer. Washington State didn't do
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 1: that much offensively at all. Now they have to go
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 1: back out on the road again to Corvallis. I don't
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 1: think it's that easy of a spot for them, man,
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 1: And for Oregon State, I mean Oregon State, yeah, I
• 1:23:27
  Speaker 1: mean they faces somewhat difficult schedule as well. They played
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 1: Texas Tech in Oregon. I mean, nobody would expect them
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 1: to win either of those games on the road. They
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 1: took Houston to overtime. But if you remember, that was
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 1: a win for me on the show, I thought it
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 1: was a bad spot for Houston. Going out to corvallis
• 1:23:41
  Speaker 1: a weird Pacific Coast travel spot there for Houston. And
• 1:23:46
  Speaker 1: Oregon State almost pulled off the upset in that one,
• 1:23:49
  Speaker 1: and yees. Since then, they haven't really played anybody that
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 1: got I mean they did play Wake but whatever. But
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 1: Oregon State they got their first win finally. I thought
• 1:23:57
  Speaker 1: it was against an FCS team in La Fayette, but
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 1: finally Oregon State got a win. So they're not a
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 1: winless team anymore. So I think when you do that,
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 1: you don't get over confident. Because it was a weak
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 1: opponent that they won against. But still that they beat,
• 1:24:11
  Speaker 1: I should say, but still you get that one win,
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 1: It's like you get that monkey off your back. Man, Now,
• 1:24:16
  Speaker 1: all right, we're not a winless team anymore. They did
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 1: go into a bye after that, but I don't know
• 1:24:20
  Speaker 1: that that buy will actually stop that like newfound momentum. Necessarily,
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 1: I think they're gonna use that bite to maybe like
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 1: figure out some things. Because this Washington State game, I mean,
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 1: this is the big game of the season. I guess
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 1: they have a de facto conference championship game also against
• 1:24:36
  Speaker 1: Washington State next so I guess the teams play each
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 1: other home and away. I guess because they're the only
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 1: teams in this conference. I don't know. I don't know
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 1: how it works exactly, but I guess that's the case.
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 1: But I think it sets up a little bit better
• 1:24:48
  Speaker 1: for Oregon State. The line looks very, very misleading on
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 1: this one. With all the travel Washington State is done recently,
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 1: could be a little bit tired. I would lean to
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 1: taking the boys with the Oregon State in that one
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 1: wake at Florida State. I'll talk about this briefly as
• 1:25:04
  Speaker 1: well Wake at five and two here, But I don't
• 1:25:06
  Speaker 1: think they're really as good as that five and two
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 1: record makes them look. They're coming up that nice wind
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 1: that I gave out on the show last week. I
• 1:25:13
  Speaker 1: thought it was a nice setup for them, even though
• 1:25:16
  Speaker 1: they had gone into their buy on a wind streak.
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 1: I still thought the spot for SMU was really bad. Uha.
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 1: Wake had gone into the by on a win streak.
• 1:25:26
  Speaker 1: I mean, but the spot was so bad for SMU
• 1:25:28
  Speaker 1: that I didn't think it was gonna be that much
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 1: of a momentum killer for Wake is what I should say.
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 1: Wake was able to get the win as a small
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 1: home underdog, and that one a nice win for Wake.
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 1: Now they're gonna go out on the road again to
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 1: face Florida State, and up next they do have ranked Virginia,
• 1:25:45
  Speaker 1: So I don't know if I love the spot here
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 1: for Wake Man for Florida State, what does the setup
• 1:25:51
  Speaker 1: look like for them? I mean, Florida State basically has
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 1: been bad since they're open or where they pulled off
• 1:25:55
  Speaker 1: that upset against Alabama and that was looking like an
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 1: outliar because since then they have not been good. But
• 1:26:02
  Speaker 1: they are coming out of a buy, and they went
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 1: into the buy and basically the worst note possible. They
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 1: had to go to the Pacific Coast and they lost
• 1:26:09
  Speaker 1: as a big favorite at Stanford, So they went into
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 1: the buying on like at the best possible time, Man,
• 1:26:14
  Speaker 1: because they went into the buy in such a bad
• 1:26:16
  Speaker 1: note that they can fix a lot of things that
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 1: were going wrong. So I think they're gonna come out
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 1: focus out of that buy. So the spot sets up
• 1:26:23
  Speaker 1: better for Florida State. In my opinion, in this one,
• 1:26:25
  Speaker 1: I would lay the points with Florida State. If I
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 1: was going to play this one. Wake is actually a
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 1: public underdog. Go figure that Wake is a public side
• 1:26:34
  Speaker 1: against Florida State. The oddspeakers is still twing youw Florida State.
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 1: It's a better team. You could have laid eight and
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 1: a half, I guess earlier in the week. It is
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 1: up to ten now, so it's gone to that key
• 1:26:43
  Speaker 1: number of ten. I wouldn't really necessarily want to lay
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 1: more than ten here, but I would lean to doing it.
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 1: If I was gonna do it, I would lay the
• 1:26:50
  Speaker 1: points of Florida State. Sixty four percent of the tickets
• 1:26:52
  Speaker 1: only sixty three percent of the cash on Wake, so
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 1: the money is agreeing with it as well. Florida State
• 1:26:58
  Speaker 1: is one of those nice public anti excuse me, anti
• 1:27:01
  Speaker 1: public favorites, anti public home favorites. That's almost like the
• 1:27:05
  Speaker 1: sweet spot man, because you know you're putting your money
• 1:27:08
  Speaker 1: on a good team. If you do that. Out of those,
• 1:27:10
  Speaker 1: Florida State a good team. I don't know, but there's
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 1: still better than Wake Forest at the very least, you
• 1:27:14
  Speaker 1: at least know, you're you're putting your money on a
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 1: relatively good team relative to their opponent, and their records
• 1:27:20
  Speaker 1: are misleading right now. So I would lay the points
• 1:27:22
  Speaker 1: of Florida State in that one and then the bailout
• 1:27:26
  Speaker 1: special at ten thirty pm Eastern. I actually find to
• 1:27:28
  Speaker 1: be kind of an addressing game on CBS Sports. It's
• 1:27:31
  Speaker 1: Hawaii and San Jose State, two teams in the Mountain West.
• 1:27:35
  Speaker 1: Hawaii six and two overall, three and one in the conference,
• 1:27:38
  Speaker 1: San Jose State underperforming a bit at one and two
• 1:27:42
  Speaker 1: in the conference at two and five overall. I don't
• 1:27:45
  Speaker 1: know that Hawaii has been that impressive. Man, Hawaii, Yeah,
• 1:27:48
  Speaker 1: I mean they're starting to play a little bit better.
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 1: Fourth year under Timmy Chang or whatever his name is there.
• 1:27:53
  Speaker 1: He's a decent coach. Hawaii. They've been able to throw
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 1: the football decently. I mean that's what they do. They
• 1:27:57
  Speaker 1: just throw the football. They don't really run it well.
• 1:28:00
  Speaker 1: They don't necessarily play great deepfense either. Sometimes they get
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 1: an advantage of playing at home because teams have to
• 1:28:06
  Speaker 1: fly out to Hawaii. So sometimes that's a disadvantage when
• 1:28:10
  Speaker 1: Hawaii catches those teams out in Hawaii. But Hawaii has
• 1:28:14
  Speaker 1: not played a difficult schedule at all, Man. I mean,
• 1:28:16
  Speaker 1: the one decent team they face really was Arizona and
• 1:28:20
  Speaker 1: they got obliterated by Arizona forty to six. So they
• 1:28:23
  Speaker 1: do not have an impressive resume. And Hawaii did go
• 1:28:26
  Speaker 1: into the buy in a bad note, or excuse me,
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 1: on a good note. They got the buye at a
• 1:28:30
  Speaker 1: bad time, is what I mean to say. They went
• 1:28:32
  Speaker 1: into the buy on three straight wins against Air Force
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 1: stayed in Colorado State. Those are not good teams, so
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 1: those are not impressive wins. But when you go into
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 1: a bye with momentum like that, it can be a
• 1:28:44
  Speaker 1: momentum killer coming out of that buy. Man. I don't
• 1:28:46
  Speaker 1: know if they came back, if they went back to
• 1:28:48
  Speaker 1: Hawaii after, because they've finished up at Colorado State, so
• 1:28:51
  Speaker 1: I don't know if during the bye they went back
• 1:28:53
  Speaker 1: to Hawaii. Now they're going back out to the mainland
• 1:28:56
  Speaker 1: to San Jose State. I don't know, Man, And of
• 1:28:58
  Speaker 1: course Hawaii is used to it because they have to
• 1:28:59
  Speaker 1: do this every year, but still it's kind of a
• 1:29:03
  Speaker 1: lot of travel. It's not the greatest spot for them.
• 1:29:05
  Speaker 1: I don't think San Jose State they face the much more,
• 1:29:09
  Speaker 1: not a much more difficult center, but they face the
• 1:29:11
  Speaker 1: more difficult schedule just because they faced Texas. San Jose
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 1: State is also coming out of a bye, though, and
• 1:29:16
  Speaker 1: they went into the buy in a bad note on
• 1:29:18
  Speaker 1: two straight losses at Wyoming and at Utah State. So
• 1:29:22
  Speaker 1: San Jose State, yeah, I mean, they're expected to do
• 1:29:26
  Speaker 1: much better things this year and they just haven't been
• 1:29:28
  Speaker 1: able to do what I mean. They're also an offense
• 1:29:29
  Speaker 1: that mostly throws the ball, although they've had some decent
• 1:29:32
  Speaker 1: rushing performances, whereas Hawaii really hasn't. San Jose State now,
• 1:29:37
  Speaker 1: they went into the buy on a note where they
• 1:29:38
  Speaker 1: could possibly fix some things. Because they went into the
• 1:29:40
  Speaker 1: buying of the bad note, they probably should have covered
• 1:29:43
  Speaker 1: at Utah State on that Friday primetime game and they
• 1:29:45
  Speaker 1: failed to do so. So I think the spot sets
• 1:29:48
  Speaker 1: up significantly better for San Jose State man Hawaii. They're
• 1:29:51
  Speaker 1: already Bowl eligible again, they got their six win already.
• 1:29:55
  Speaker 1: The money right now is saying Hawaii, but I don't
• 1:29:57
  Speaker 1: agree with it. This is close to a play for me. Actually,
• 1:30:00
  Speaker 1: Jose State stem from two and a half to one here,
• 1:30:03
  Speaker 1: and they're kind of an anti public favorite though seventy
• 1:30:06
  Speaker 1: six percent of the tickets and eighty three percent of
• 1:30:08
  Speaker 1: the cash on Hawaii. So it's interesting to see the
• 1:30:12
  Speaker 1: team with the way better record as an underdog against
• 1:30:14
  Speaker 1: the team with a bad record like San Jose State.
• 1:30:16
  Speaker 1: But the oddsmakers are telling you Hawaii is only the
• 1:30:19
  Speaker 1: slightly better team here, and the public basically they see
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 1: the pick the winner price Hawaii is a slight underdog
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 1: and think that, oh, it makes sense to take Hawaii.
• 1:30:28
  Speaker 1: And again, this is the last game on the slate,
• 1:30:30
  Speaker 1: so it's the bailout Special. And sometimes the public plays
• 1:30:34
  Speaker 1: this game a little bit more than they would otherwise
• 1:30:37
  Speaker 1: in a game with teams like this because it's the
• 1:30:39
  Speaker 1: last game on the board. So the public when they
• 1:30:41
  Speaker 1: lose money that day, they want to try to get
• 1:30:44
  Speaker 1: their money back, and this is the last game on
• 1:30:46
  Speaker 1: the slate, so the you're gonna be like, oh, I
• 1:30:48
  Speaker 1: get Hawaii is an underdog, let's put my money on this,
• 1:30:51
  Speaker 1: so in the bailout Special. Yeah, sometimes the public will
• 1:30:53
  Speaker 1: come in on this game. Sometimes we'll get it wrong.
• 1:30:56
  Speaker 1: I like San Jose State in that one. I don't
• 1:30:58
  Speaker 1: think I could quite make it play, but I do
• 1:31:00
  Speaker 1: kind of like it. It's kind of that inverted by
• 1:31:03
  Speaker 1: situation in that one. Let's get to my plays, let's
• 1:31:06
  Speaker 1: go to the best bets, and then I'll get out
• 1:31:08
  Speaker 1: of here and hopefully we're gonna get some winners here. Man.
• 1:31:13
  Speaker 1: The first one up, we're gonna go to that Georgia,
• 1:31:16
  Speaker 1: Florida game, which is the game where you're not allowed
• 1:31:19
  Speaker 1: to call it the world's biggest outdoor cocktail party anymore
• 1:31:23
  Speaker 1: because everyone's offended by everything. Now you're not allowed to
• 1:31:26
  Speaker 1: tell people to drink anymore. Man. It's just like where
• 1:31:29
  Speaker 1: I live, Massachusetts, happy hours have been banned since the
• 1:31:33
  Speaker 1: eighties because the dude drank and committed a duy and
• 1:31:36
  Speaker 1: killed somebody, and now we've not had happy hours since then,
• 1:31:40
  Speaker 1: although of course people still drink after work. These like
• 1:31:43
  Speaker 1: restaurants and bars just get around it by like offering
• 1:31:46
  Speaker 1: like other discounts like whatever. It's just so stupid, man,
• 1:31:51
  Speaker 1: And part of the reason for it, actually I didn't
• 1:31:53
  Speaker 1: know this. Another thing that caused the happy hour to
• 1:31:56
  Speaker 1: get banned is we had this restaurant in Massachusetts called
• 1:32:00
  Speaker 1: the ground Round, which was a It was supposed to
• 1:32:04
  Speaker 1: basically be like a circus atmosphere. It's very, very strange.
• 1:32:07
  Speaker 1: I used to go to it as a kid. I
• 1:32:09
  Speaker 1: was it was definitely fun for like families to go.
• 1:32:13
  Speaker 1: They had some like weird and like some kind of
• 1:32:15
  Speaker 1: decent menu, and they had like popcorn, like you can
• 1:32:18
  Speaker 1: get free popcorn, free peanuts, And one of the things
• 1:32:23
  Speaker 1: was you would throw the peanuts shells on the floor. So,
• 1:32:26
  Speaker 1: like I said, it was like being in like a
• 1:32:28
  Speaker 1: circus or like at a stadium or something. They're like, yeah,
• 1:32:31
  Speaker 1: you eat your peanuts. You just throw the peanuts shells
• 1:32:33
  Speaker 1: on the floor and we'll clean them up. It was
• 1:32:36
  Speaker 1: so weird, dude, for that to be, Like it was
• 1:32:38
  Speaker 1: like a family restaurant, and they served like burgers, Like
• 1:32:41
  Speaker 1: their food was actually not that bad, Like they had
• 1:32:43
  Speaker 1: some decent burgers. I think they had some prime rib
• 1:32:46
  Speaker 1: and some other stuff. It wasn't that bad. They went
• 1:32:49
  Speaker 1: out of business, and part of it I think was
• 1:32:50
  Speaker 1: because they were just like I don't know, like the
• 1:32:55
  Speaker 1: time kind of passed them by because like their atmosphere
• 1:32:58
  Speaker 1: was too rowdy and it got to be like a
• 1:33:00
  Speaker 1: place where like it was like almost like a lawless restaurant.
• 1:33:04
  Speaker 1: It was. It was the libertarian restaurant, the anarchist restaurant
• 1:33:07
  Speaker 1: where people would go. It was just anything flies. You're
• 1:33:10
  Speaker 1: throwing peanut shells on the floor, ere you can drink whatever.
• 1:33:13
  Speaker 1: I don't even know if anybody's listening to me in
• 1:33:15
  Speaker 1: the chat right now, but I'm going on one of
• 1:33:17
  Speaker 1: my Toad stories or Toad tangents here. But I think
• 1:33:20
  Speaker 1: with the Happy Hour, these stupid drunk idiots during one
• 1:33:25
  Speaker 1: of those happy hours at one of the ground Round restaurants,
• 1:33:28
  Speaker 1: decided to drive a vehicle with a guy on the
• 1:33:32
  Speaker 1: roof of the vehicle. And I don't think anybody died
• 1:33:35
  Speaker 1: in that incident, but I think there might have been
• 1:33:36
  Speaker 1: an injury or something. I don't know exactly what happened,
• 1:33:39
  Speaker 1: but that also led to the Happy Hours getting banned.
• 1:33:42
  Speaker 1: It's just which they still shouldn't be banned. It's just
• 1:33:44
  Speaker 1: fucking ridiculous. Mister Binsy, what's up man? Things are still
• 1:33:49
  Speaker 1: hanging out. I mean, these shows are so long, dude,
• 1:33:51
  Speaker 1: I'm like, does anybody actually want to listen to this?
• 1:33:53
  Speaker 1: I don't know, Maybe I gotta switch it up, but anyway,
• 1:33:57
  Speaker 1: that came across my mind. All right, best bad, as
• 1:34:00
  Speaker 1: I already said, first game up, We're going to the
• 1:34:02
  Speaker 1: world's biggest that that was the segue the world's biggest
• 1:34:06
  Speaker 1: outdoor cocktail party. We're still gonna call it that. Do
• 1:34:09
  Speaker 1: you think that the fact that they don't call it,
• 1:34:11
  Speaker 1: the fact that they don't call the game that anymore?
• 1:34:14
  Speaker 1: Do you think it's gonna stop the students from drinking
• 1:34:17
  Speaker 1: a shit done at this game? Hell no, This game's
• 1:34:21
  Speaker 1: at three point thirty pm. I'm gonna take the points
• 1:34:24
  Speaker 1: with Florida and this one Florida plus seven. George is
• 1:34:29
  Speaker 1: gonna be the public side. Right now, it looks like
• 1:34:31
  Speaker 1: they're getting the cash, but I don't think it'll stay
• 1:34:33
  Speaker 1: that way. By the time the game kicks off, they're
• 1:34:35
  Speaker 1: down from a seven and a half point favorite to
• 1:34:36
  Speaker 1: a seven point favorite. If you can get the seven
• 1:34:38
  Speaker 1: and a half, obviously, go ahead, try to do it.
• 1:34:42
  Speaker 1: I don't know if we're gonna see the seven disappear though,
• 1:34:44
  Speaker 1: So if you I don't know if you could wait
• 1:34:46
  Speaker 1: and maybe get the seven and a half on this.
• 1:34:49
  Speaker 1: I mean, if you can take the seven, I think
• 1:34:51
  Speaker 1: that's still fine. I wouldn't want it to drop the
• 1:34:53
  Speaker 1: six and a half though, So that's kind of the concern, Like,
• 1:34:55
  Speaker 1: which way do you think it's gonna go. I mean,
• 1:34:57
  Speaker 1: the public might come in on this and keep the
• 1:34:59
  Speaker 1: line at least seven, So maybe potentially we'll see the
• 1:35:02
  Speaker 1: seven and a half again. But I'm fine with taking
• 1:35:05
  Speaker 1: the seven on this as well. Eighty one percent of
• 1:35:08
  Speaker 1: the tickets eighty eight percent of the cash on Georgia
• 1:35:10
  Speaker 1: right now. Don't know if it's gonna stay that way.
• 1:35:12
  Speaker 1: It's not a particularly low total at fifty, but still
• 1:35:15
  Speaker 1: it's not really high either. But the way this game
• 1:35:19
  Speaker 1: sets up, I mean, Georgia is the fifth ranked team
• 1:35:22
  Speaker 1: in the country, Man, and Florida is a below five
• 1:35:26
  Speaker 1: hundred team, and yet you're only having to lay a
• 1:35:28
  Speaker 1: touchdown with Georgia. It just looks way too easy to
• 1:35:30
  Speaker 1: lay the points with Georgia here. Man and Florida, well,
• 1:35:34
  Speaker 1: I'll talk about Florida minute. I'll talk about Georgia first
• 1:35:37
  Speaker 1: because they're the row team here. Yes they're only a
• 1:35:39
  Speaker 1: one lost team, so yes, they're in the mix for
• 1:35:41
  Speaker 1: the SEC right now. But Georgia, they just went into
• 1:35:44
  Speaker 1: a bye Man, so I think the buy can kill
• 1:35:48
  Speaker 1: their momentum a little bit. Man, They just went into
• 1:35:50
  Speaker 1: the buy in a good note. They won three games
• 1:35:52
  Speaker 1: in a row. They beat Old Miss going into the buy.
• 1:35:54
  Speaker 1: That was a nice win for Georgia. Now they're coming
• 1:35:57
  Speaker 1: out of a buy and I think that buy might
• 1:35:59
  Speaker 1: stop their moment momentum a little bit. And by the way, Georgia,
• 1:36:03
  Speaker 1: I mean, they haven't exactly been that impressive when they
• 1:36:05
  Speaker 1: stepped up in class. They went on the road and
• 1:36:08
  Speaker 1: they barely got by Tennessee in overtime. They lost a
• 1:36:12
  Speaker 1: home to Alabama. All that, we know, Alabama's really good
• 1:36:14
  Speaker 1: and the whole thing, Alabama basically always beats Georgia up. Fine,
• 1:36:19
  Speaker 1: they were not great against Auburn, and I think Auburn
• 1:36:21
  Speaker 1: really should have covered that number. I mean, there were
• 1:36:23
  Speaker 1: chances for Auburn and maybe win that game until the
• 1:36:25
  Speaker 1: refs screwed them. So that wasn't impressive. And then last
• 1:36:28
  Speaker 1: week Georgia they had to make this huge comeback just
• 1:36:32
  Speaker 1: to win and cover against Ole Miss late in the game.
• 1:36:35
  Speaker 1: I think they scored seventeen on incer points very late
• 1:36:38
  Speaker 1: in the game to beat Ole Miss in the fashion
• 1:36:40
  Speaker 1: that they did, so they could have lost that game
• 1:36:42
  Speaker 1: too two weeks ago. I mean, going into the buy,
• 1:36:45
  Speaker 1: so Georgia, I know, the thing is like you know,
• 1:36:49
  Speaker 1: Georgia basically under Kirby Smart. Basically they beat every team
• 1:36:52
  Speaker 1: except Alabama. I know that's the thing, but I think
• 1:36:54
  Speaker 1: this Georgia team is not really quite as good as
• 1:36:57
  Speaker 1: the Georgia teams they was seen in recent years. And again,
• 1:37:00
  Speaker 1: like I just talked about, their performance hasn't been that
• 1:37:02
  Speaker 1: impressive and now they're coming out of a bye that
• 1:37:06
  Speaker 1: came in a bad time. And for Florida, yeah, they're
• 1:37:09
  Speaker 1: not going anywhere this year. Yeah they're below five hundred.
• 1:37:12
  Speaker 1: But if they're gonna get up for a game, you
• 1:37:15
  Speaker 1: know it's gonna be this game. I mean, they're gonna
• 1:37:17
  Speaker 1: maybe get up for a couple other games that are
• 1:37:19
  Speaker 1: remaining this season. But when the team's not going anywhere,
• 1:37:23
  Speaker 1: the teams the games that they're gonna get up for
• 1:37:24
  Speaker 1: a games against ranked teams and rivalry games. And this
• 1:37:27
  Speaker 1: is a huge rivalry and Georgia has owned this rivalry
• 1:37:30
  Speaker 1: recently as well. Florida has not won this game since
• 1:37:33
  Speaker 1: I think twenty twenty, So I think the game is
• 1:37:36
  Speaker 1: a bigger deal for Florida right now because they want
• 1:37:39
  Speaker 1: to try to get this win. Georgia, you know, they
• 1:37:42
  Speaker 1: just owned the rivalry the last few years, like I said,
• 1:37:44
  Speaker 1: and this is actually a game where maybe Florida can
• 1:37:47
  Speaker 1: actually show up, maybe actually potentially be in the mix
• 1:37:50
  Speaker 1: to maybe win this game. Florida also is coming out
• 1:37:53
  Speaker 1: of a bye, so both teams are but Florida win
• 1:37:56
  Speaker 1: went in on a worst note in my opinion. They
• 1:37:59
  Speaker 1: had lost to Texas A and M. Although you can
• 1:38:01
  Speaker 1: kind of explain why they lost to Texas A and
• 1:38:03
  Speaker 1: M because well, it was on the road at Texas
• 1:38:05
  Speaker 1: A and M's pretty good, but Florida was also kind
• 1:38:07
  Speaker 1: of in a letdown spot because they'd beaten Texas the
• 1:38:10
  Speaker 1: week before that, so didn't expect them to be able
• 1:38:12
  Speaker 1: to win against Texas A and M, and then the
• 1:38:14
  Speaker 1: week after that coming off two or actually four straight
• 1:38:18
  Speaker 1: games against ranked opponents, so they had a buy mixed
• 1:38:21
  Speaker 1: in there. They played Mississippi State and they barely got
• 1:38:25
  Speaker 1: by them going into the by, so they did not
• 1:38:28
  Speaker 1: go into the buy on a good note even though
• 1:38:30
  Speaker 1: they won the game against Mississippi State. Florida State was
• 1:38:32
  Speaker 1: like an eight eight and a half point favorite, maybe nine,
• 1:38:35
  Speaker 1: whatever it was, and they barely got buy in Mississippi
• 1:38:37
  Speaker 1: State in that game, so I think they actually went
• 1:38:39
  Speaker 1: into the buy in a bad note. So I think
• 1:38:41
  Speaker 1: they got the buy at a much better point in
• 1:38:44
  Speaker 1: the season than Georgia did. And by the way, what
• 1:38:47
  Speaker 1: did Florida do the other time they had the buy?
• 1:38:50
  Speaker 1: Oh yeah, they came out of the buy and they
• 1:38:51
  Speaker 1: beat Texas. So yeah, Florida they used that buy to
• 1:38:55
  Speaker 1: their advantage. Now I know their coach is different now,
• 1:39:00
  Speaker 1: so yeah, they might not use the buy as effectively
• 1:39:03
  Speaker 1: this time, but they fired their coach man, so this
• 1:39:07
  Speaker 1: is also the fired coach spot for Florida, So I
• 1:39:11
  Speaker 1: think that's another positive for Florida here. Man. So I
• 1:39:14
  Speaker 1: know Billy Napier, I guess he used the bye well,
• 1:39:16
  Speaker 1: which is why they came out of that buy and
• 1:39:18
  Speaker 1: they beat Texas. But now they fired Billion Napier after
• 1:39:21
  Speaker 1: the Mississippi State game, And I still think that's a
• 1:39:24
  Speaker 1: good thing because whoever their interim coaches, he's gonna get
• 1:39:28
  Speaker 1: two weeks based gonna prepare for this game with the team.
• 1:39:31
  Speaker 1: So I think that's good. So you got a couple
• 1:39:34
  Speaker 1: of things going for you here with Florida for that
• 1:39:36
  Speaker 1: reason too. So not only do I think the bye
• 1:39:38
  Speaker 1: just generally came in a better point in the season
• 1:39:40
  Speaker 1: for Florida, then it came for Georgia here. But the
• 1:39:44
  Speaker 1: fired coach just generally will spark a team. I talk
• 1:39:46
  Speaker 1: about this on the show a lot when a team
• 1:39:49
  Speaker 1: just fired their coach, a lot of times the team
• 1:39:50
  Speaker 1: just wasn't buying into that coach's system. I don't think
• 1:39:53
  Speaker 1: Florida's players like Billy Napier, I really don't, so I
• 1:39:57
  Speaker 1: think this is gonna spark the team for that reason.
• 1:39:59
  Speaker 1: They just didn't want to play for the guy. But
• 1:40:01
  Speaker 1: also I think the team's gonna want to like prove
• 1:40:03
  Speaker 1: that it was not the player's fault, that it was
• 1:40:06
  Speaker 1: the coach's fault. So that's the other reason why with
• 1:40:08
  Speaker 1: the coach getting fired, the team usually has a spark
• 1:40:11
  Speaker 1: and plays well in that first game because they didn't
• 1:40:14
  Speaker 1: like the coach and or they want to prove that
• 1:40:17
  Speaker 1: the problem wasn't them. So I like all that too.
• 1:40:19
  Speaker 1: And the fact that came during a bye is also
• 1:40:21
  Speaker 1: a benefit because again, the new coach, who I think
• 1:40:24
  Speaker 1: is an interim who's been in the system anyway, can
• 1:40:27
  Speaker 1: like work with the team for an extra week, So
• 1:40:29
  Speaker 1: I think that's really helpful. So I think they fired
• 1:40:31
  Speaker 1: the coach at a good time to do it, too,
• 1:40:34
  Speaker 1: So for all those reasons. I like Florida on this one, man,
• 1:40:38
  Speaker 1: and again, say what you will about Florida, but they've
• 1:40:40
  Speaker 1: actually been pretty good defensively, at least this year, so
• 1:40:43
  Speaker 1: that's another thing, another reason why they might be able
• 1:40:46
  Speaker 1: to hang in this game. Plus the points. So I
• 1:40:48
  Speaker 1: like Florida. Man, A lot of things kind of coalescing
• 1:40:52
  Speaker 1: in that one. So oh, thank you, sir. I appreciate
• 1:40:55
  Speaker 1: the positive comments as well. I think I ran Jeffrey
• 1:40:58
  Speaker 1: out of town though, being way too, way too emphatic
• 1:41:03
  Speaker 1: about hating being wrong about the World Series. I don't
• 1:41:06
  Speaker 1: think he usually comes for these late night shows. I
• 1:41:09
  Speaker 1: think he only comes for the warnings shows. So we'll see.
• 1:41:12
  Speaker 1: I don't know where the rest of the guys are tonight,
• 1:41:13
  Speaker 1: though Nate usually comes in for these late night shows.
• 1:41:18
  Speaker 1: I don't know, man. All right, next up we're gonna
• 1:41:20
  Speaker 1: have we're gonna go to the SEC for another game. Here,
• 1:41:23
  Speaker 1: we're gonna lay the points with Arkansas minus four and
• 1:41:26
  Speaker 1: a half. I like this one as well, and this
• 1:41:29
  Speaker 1: is gonna be against Mississippi State, I believe, yeah, Arkansas.
• 1:41:35
  Speaker 1: First of all, you see the fact that Arkansas is
• 1:41:37
  Speaker 1: laying points and they're actually up from four to five here,
• 1:41:40
  Speaker 1: and they're actually taking the money. Fifty percent of the
• 1:41:42
  Speaker 1: tickets are evenly split here, but sixty five percent of
• 1:41:46
  Speaker 1: the cash on Arkansas, So the money's actually coming in
• 1:41:48
  Speaker 1: on Arkansas. By the way, this is a very high total.
• 1:41:51
  Speaker 1: It's sixty seven and a half, so that and the
• 1:41:53
  Speaker 1: money's coming in in the under a little bit. But
• 1:41:55
  Speaker 1: still it's expected to be a high scoring game, and
• 1:41:58
  Speaker 1: that makes it easier for a favorite to cover a
• 1:42:01
  Speaker 1: number when it's a high scoring game. So just a
• 1:42:03
  Speaker 1: little bit of extra something to keep in mind. But
• 1:42:05
  Speaker 1: looking at this game, you gotta look at this game
• 1:42:09
  Speaker 1: and look at these teams records and think, why the
• 1:42:10
  Speaker 1: hell is Arkansas laying points when there are two and
• 1:42:13
  Speaker 1: six team in Mississippi State's four and four. So it
• 1:42:16
  Speaker 1: looks very strange that Arkansas's laying points here. But the
• 1:42:20
  Speaker 1: oddsmakers are telling you Arkansas is actually the slightly better team.
• 1:42:23
  Speaker 1: I know Mississippi State's improved a little bit this year.
• 1:42:26
  Speaker 1: Both teams have faced a somewhat difficult schedule. I think
• 1:42:29
  Speaker 1: you could argue that Arkansas faced the more difficult out
• 1:42:31
  Speaker 1: of conference schedule only because they face Notre Dame in
• 1:42:35
  Speaker 1: Mississippi State faced Arizona State and Notre Dame's the better
• 1:42:38
  Speaker 1: of those two teams, so the out of conference schedule
• 1:42:40
  Speaker 1: has been a little bit more difficult for Arkansas, and
• 1:42:43
  Speaker 1: other than that, I think the teams have faced somewhat
• 1:42:45
  Speaker 1: comparable SEC slates. But Mississippi State, I mean, both teams
• 1:42:49
  Speaker 1: have been bad in the SEC slate, but Mississippi State
• 1:42:52
  Speaker 1: they're coming off two really really tough performances. In a
• 1:42:57
  Speaker 1: row manber they took Florida to the limit like I
• 1:42:59
  Speaker 1: just mentioned and almost covered in that game, and by
• 1:43:03
  Speaker 1: the way, three of their last four games have actually
• 1:43:05
  Speaker 1: done that. So I mean, one argument could be, yeah,
• 1:43:07
  Speaker 1: they've been competitive, so maybe this Mississippi State team is
• 1:43:11
  Speaker 1: not that bad. But I think the other argument is
• 1:43:13
  Speaker 1: they're just gonna be really tired at this point because
• 1:43:16
  Speaker 1: on the September twenty seventh, they took Tennessee to overtime
• 1:43:20
  Speaker 1: and they fell short and lost that game. Then they
• 1:43:22
  Speaker 1: got killed by Texas A and M. Coming out of that,
• 1:43:24
  Speaker 1: I think I gave out Texas A and M in
• 1:43:26
  Speaker 1: that game, and that was a winner for us on
• 1:43:28
  Speaker 1: the show, laying a pretty big number with Texas A
• 1:43:30
  Speaker 1: and M. They were able to get there in the
• 1:43:32
  Speaker 1: end and score late and cover that number. Then Mississippi
• 1:43:36
  Speaker 1: State again they played tough. They actually had a buye.
• 1:43:39
  Speaker 1: Then they came out of that buy and they played
• 1:43:40
  Speaker 1: tough against Florida. So it's this is over span four
• 1:43:44
  Speaker 1: of five weeks. Four games of five weeks. They played
• 1:43:48
  Speaker 1: four of opponents. They played Florida, they took them to
• 1:43:51
  Speaker 1: the limit, and then they came out of that and
• 1:43:53
  Speaker 1: they took Texas to the limit too, took Texas into
• 1:43:57
  Speaker 1: overtime last week. So I think it's some point the
• 1:44:00
  Speaker 1: steam's gonna run out man for Mississippi State, and I
• 1:44:03
  Speaker 1: think it might be here. I mean, that's just too
• 1:44:04
  Speaker 1: many big games, too many close calls to have as
• 1:44:08
  Speaker 1: like a big underdog like that, and the fact they
• 1:44:10
  Speaker 1: took Texas into overtime, fell short and Texas's backup quarterback
• 1:44:14
  Speaker 1: beat them in overtime. That is just brutal, man. They
• 1:44:17
  Speaker 1: had Texas on the ropes, they almost beat Texas. Now
• 1:44:21
  Speaker 1: they gotta go and play Arkansas. Yeah, I mean, it
• 1:44:23
  Speaker 1: doesn't look very good for Mississippi State here, and they
• 1:44:26
  Speaker 1: do have Georgia up next. They have all ranked teams
• 1:44:28
  Speaker 1: coming up next, so could be maybe a little bit
• 1:44:31
  Speaker 1: of a look ahead. I mean, I guess you could
• 1:44:33
  Speaker 1: argue that Mississippi State is gonna be trying to get
• 1:44:34
  Speaker 1: to a bowl, because I don't think they've been to
• 1:44:36
  Speaker 1: a bowl. They at least did not make one last
• 1:44:40
  Speaker 1: year at the very least, So maybe you could argue
• 1:44:42
  Speaker 1: they're trying to become bowl eligible, but they might realize
• 1:44:44
  Speaker 1: it's probably not gonna happen because they're gonna be an
• 1:44:47
  Speaker 1: underdog in all the remaining games here. So even though
• 1:44:50
  Speaker 1: this one coming up is the most winnable of them,
• 1:44:54
  Speaker 1: I think it sets up better for Arkansas. Arkansas, Yeah,
• 1:44:58
  Speaker 1: they also have not won in co conference. They actually
• 1:45:01
  Speaker 1: haven't won since September six. It was against a really
• 1:45:04
  Speaker 1: bad Arkansas State team, which is their only FBS when
• 1:45:07
  Speaker 1: I know, But they faced the gauntlet, dude. They faced
• 1:45:10
  Speaker 1: oh Miss Memphis, who is now in the rankings. Memphis
• 1:45:13
  Speaker 1: isn't really that bad. Notre Dame, like I said, so
• 1:45:16
  Speaker 1: they're out of conference. Was more difficult because they faced
• 1:45:18
  Speaker 1: Memphis and Notre Dame. Then they faced Tennessee, Texas A
• 1:45:22
  Speaker 1: and m Auburn. I mean those were all solid SEC
• 1:45:25
  Speaker 1: teams as well, and they actually played competitively so you
• 1:45:27
  Speaker 1: could make the same argument for both Mississippi State and Arkansas.
• 1:45:31
  Speaker 1: As far as these teams have played some of these
• 1:45:33
  Speaker 1: teams competitively, yeah they have. Arkansas only lost my three
• 1:45:37
  Speaker 1: at Tennessee. They only lost my three against Texas A
• 1:45:39
  Speaker 1: and M. But last week they had a bad game
• 1:45:42
  Speaker 1: at home against Auburn Man, so I think they're kind
• 1:45:45
  Speaker 1: of in more of a bounce back spot now after that.
• 1:45:47
  Speaker 1: That was a game where I just think maybe they
• 1:45:50
  Speaker 1: ran out of steam because they had played two weeks
• 1:45:52
  Speaker 1: in a row. They played really tough against Tennessee and
• 1:45:55
  Speaker 1: Texas A and M. I think maybe they just landed
• 1:45:58
  Speaker 1: in a hangover spot. And I thought it was kind
• 1:45:59
  Speaker 1: of a hangover spot for both teams in that Arkansas game.
• 1:46:03
  Speaker 1: And I think maybe it was a little bit worse
• 1:46:04
  Speaker 1: for Arkansas because Auburn. Auburn's the better team over Arkansas too,
• 1:46:09
  Speaker 1: but Auburn I was coming off playing Missouri, which I
• 1:46:12
  Speaker 1: think was a little bit less of a grueling game
• 1:46:14
  Speaker 1: than what Arkansas was coming off of. So you can
• 1:46:16
  Speaker 1: kind of explain that Arkansas this is gonna be their
• 1:46:19
  Speaker 1: last home game until they play Missouri at the very
• 1:46:22
  Speaker 1: end of the season. Yeah, I like it, we'll lay
• 1:46:25
  Speaker 1: the points with Arkansas, man, hopefully that analysis made enough sense.
• 1:46:31
  Speaker 1: And then to finish it off, I'm actually gonna give
• 1:46:33
  Speaker 1: out a total. I know I'm being really dangerous here man,
• 1:46:37
  Speaker 1: because I was like, am I really? Am I forcing it?
• 1:46:39
  Speaker 1: Because I was like, really, am I really gonna only
• 1:46:41
  Speaker 1: give up two plays? Although it's actually gonna be five
• 1:46:44
  Speaker 1: college football plays this week because I've already given out
• 1:46:46
  Speaker 1: three and we lost two of the three, So isn't
• 1:46:49
  Speaker 1: that excellent? But we're gonna go with the total, and
• 1:46:52
  Speaker 1: we're gonna also still stick in the sec here. This
• 1:46:55
  Speaker 1: is the way that it worked out. We're gonna go
• 1:46:57
  Speaker 1: with South Carolina and oh Miss over the fifty five
• 1:47:00
  Speaker 1: and a half. And I know you might be thinking, well,
• 1:47:03
  Speaker 1: I've talked about how bad South Carolina's offenses. I know
• 1:47:09
  Speaker 1: their offense has been pretty bad. Uh, They've been really
• 1:47:11
  Speaker 1: bad on like the first couple of downs. Like I said,
• 1:47:13
  Speaker 1: they were like last in all of college football for
• 1:47:16
  Speaker 1: a while in yards to gain on third down. But
• 1:47:19
  Speaker 1: Ole Miss is not a very good offense and they
• 1:47:21
  Speaker 1: play frenetically fast or excuse me, they're not a very
• 1:47:24
  Speaker 1: good defense. Excuse me, they're a very good offense, they're
• 1:47:27
  Speaker 1: not a very good defense, so Ole Miss like just
• 1:47:30
  Speaker 1: them on their own. They profile as an over team
• 1:47:33
  Speaker 1: because they're all offense, no defense and Lane Kiffin just
• 1:47:36
  Speaker 1: likes to go hyper speed and go really really fast,
• 1:47:40
  Speaker 1: so that's part of the handicap here. So I think
• 1:47:42
  Speaker 1: South Carolina should be able to score some points against
• 1:47:45
  Speaker 1: Ole Miss. Both teams are in bad spots. So when
• 1:47:49
  Speaker 1: I was looking at this game and thinking, well, what
• 1:47:50
  Speaker 1: side do I want to go with here, I was like,
• 1:47:53
  Speaker 1: maybe I'll actually just give out an over here. And
• 1:47:55
  Speaker 1: by the way, the couple of means that I gave
• 1:47:57
  Speaker 1: on on the I should go back to the hockey overs.
• 1:47:59
  Speaker 1: Maybe it was a couple of leans I gave out
• 1:48:01
  Speaker 1: on the hockey overs. I think I've actually hit. I'm
• 1:48:03
  Speaker 1: pretty sure that duck over the Ducks against whoever the
• 1:48:07
  Speaker 1: hell they were playing, and I think that game was
• 1:48:09
  Speaker 1: gonna go over Ducks and Red Wings. I think it
• 1:48:12
  Speaker 1: was already at five goals at the end of the
• 1:48:13
  Speaker 1: second period, I think, so I'm pretty sure I was
• 1:48:15
  Speaker 1: correct about that lean, although I don't know because I
• 1:48:19
  Speaker 1: think the total was at six and a half, so
• 1:48:20
  Speaker 1: maybe I'll still be wrong about that. Anyway, back to
• 1:48:24
  Speaker 1: this game South Carolina. They played three weeks in a
• 1:48:27
  Speaker 1: row against strong teams against LSU, Oklahoma, and Alabama, and
• 1:48:31
  Speaker 1: last week I gave out South Carolina on the show.
• 1:48:34
  Speaker 1: Thought it was a bad spot for Alabama and Alabama
• 1:48:37
  Speaker 1: almost got caught. Man. South Carolina was tied with Alabama
• 1:48:40
  Speaker 1: late in the game and Alabama beat them on a
• 1:48:43
  Speaker 1: late touchdown. I think South carolinam had actually been winning
• 1:48:46
  Speaker 1: that game in the fourth quarter and they blew it.
• 1:48:49
  Speaker 1: So it's just it's a bad spot coming off of this. Man,
• 1:48:52
  Speaker 1: I know it's all Miss. Usually you're gonna get up
• 1:48:54
  Speaker 1: for that, but they almost beat Alabama. Dude, I mean
• 1:48:57
  Speaker 1: that was kind of their game with the South Carolina
• 1:49:00
  Speaker 1: team where they know they're not going anywhere this year.
• 1:49:02
  Speaker 1: That could have been the game and they could have
• 1:49:04
  Speaker 1: had that. And now I think they're gonna be a
• 1:49:07
  Speaker 1: letdown spot. But we're gonna see in a minute, the
• 1:49:10
  Speaker 1: Old Miss is also in a bad spot. So I
• 1:49:12
  Speaker 1: think what we want to do is actually go with
• 1:49:14
  Speaker 1: the UH over here. And it's for a couple of
• 1:49:17
  Speaker 1: reasons which I think both are gonna affect the defense.
• 1:49:20
  Speaker 1: And I think that it's first of all, I think
• 1:49:22
  Speaker 1: these teams are gonna be tired coming off of the
• 1:49:25
  Speaker 1: stretch of games that they've been on. So the fatigue
• 1:49:27
  Speaker 1: I think sets in more on the defensive side than
• 1:49:30
  Speaker 1: on the offensive side. The defense just can't keep up
• 1:49:32
  Speaker 1: with the offense. So you're gonna have the fatigue factor.
• 1:49:37
  Speaker 1: But I also think on the Old Miss side, you're
• 1:49:39
  Speaker 1: also gonna have a Old Miss maybe not totally being
• 1:49:41
  Speaker 1: focused here because Ole Miss. I know there's seven and one.
• 1:49:44
  Speaker 1: I know they're four and one in conferences. Yeah, they're
• 1:49:47
  Speaker 1: trying to make the SEC title game. And they could
• 1:49:50
  Speaker 1: run the rest of the table here. I mean, they
• 1:49:52
  Speaker 1: don't have a very difficult schedule remaining, and they get
• 1:49:55
  Speaker 1: their most difficult opponent remaining as Florida, and they get
• 1:49:58
  Speaker 1: them at home. So it is fairly likely that Ole
• 1:50:01
  Speaker 1: Miss is gonna win out here and wind up in
• 1:50:04
  Speaker 1: the SEC title game. Of course, that means they have
• 1:50:06
  Speaker 1: to win this game, but they could also win in
• 1:50:09
  Speaker 1: a high scoring fashion. It won't matter, man. And they're
• 1:50:11
  Speaker 1: coming off playing Georgia, and that was that game that
• 1:50:13
  Speaker 1: I mentioned a little while ago where they were potentially
• 1:50:16
  Speaker 1: I think they're winning the game against Georgia. Yeah, they
• 1:50:18
  Speaker 1: were winning it, and then Georgia scored seventeen unanswered points
• 1:50:22
  Speaker 1: to win the game right at the end. Brutal way
• 1:50:24
  Speaker 1: for ole Miss to lose that game, and then second
• 1:50:27
  Speaker 1: straight road game for them. They just pulled off an
• 1:50:30
  Speaker 1: upset at Oklahoma, who's a pretty punishing deepfense man. So
• 1:50:34
  Speaker 1: they actually faced two punishing defenses in a row, Georgia
• 1:50:38
  Speaker 1: and Oklahoma. So those are physical depenses. So I know
• 1:50:42
  Speaker 1: that means maybe their offense could be a little bit
• 1:50:44
  Speaker 1: beat up, I guess coming into this game. But I
• 1:50:46
  Speaker 1: still think the fatigue is still gonna kind of set
• 1:50:48
  Speaker 1: in on the defense for both teams. And I think
• 1:50:50
  Speaker 1: for ole Miss, after you know, a big upset win
• 1:50:53
  Speaker 1: in Oklahoma, coming off two big games like that, they
• 1:50:56
  Speaker 1: could maybe be in for like maybe we'll just ease
• 1:50:58
  Speaker 1: our foot off the gas a little have been maybe
• 1:51:00
  Speaker 1: not totally focused on the South Carolina team. It's just
• 1:51:03
  Speaker 1: not that good as far as the side old misses.
• 1:51:06
  Speaker 1: The public side, they're down from thirteen to twelve and
• 1:51:09
  Speaker 1: a half, seventy seven percent of tickets, only sixty eight
• 1:51:12
  Speaker 1: percent of the casual miss It does look too easy
• 1:51:14
  Speaker 1: to lay the points a little miss, which you know
• 1:51:16
  Speaker 1: the public is gonna do that because it's a Laane
• 1:51:18
  Speaker 1: Kiffin offense. It just goes crazy. So the public is
• 1:51:21
  Speaker 1: only gonna lay the points and they obviously don't want
• 1:51:24
  Speaker 1: anything to do with a bad South Carolina offense. But
• 1:51:29
  Speaker 1: and this is still gonna be a two hour show,
• 1:51:31
  Speaker 1: So isn't that just fucking great? I thought we're gonna
• 1:51:34
  Speaker 1: maybe get an hour and a half one in there
• 1:51:36
  Speaker 1: for once. But I can't take the points with South
• 1:51:42
  Speaker 1: Carolina off of that game last week against Alabama. I
• 1:51:46
  Speaker 1: think South Carolina is probably in the worst spot out
• 1:51:48
  Speaker 1: of the two teams because that was such a close
• 1:51:50
  Speaker 1: call where they almost had a just a monumental win
• 1:51:55
  Speaker 1: against Alabama. So I would actually probably lay the points
• 1:51:58
  Speaker 1: with a little miss if I was gonna play the
• 1:52:00
  Speaker 1: side in this game. But I'm not. I'm gonna go
• 1:52:03
  Speaker 1: with the total. And yeah, I know it's up a
• 1:52:04
  Speaker 1: little bit from fifty four ish to fifty five and
• 1:52:07
  Speaker 1: a half. The money seems to be agreeing with this
• 1:52:09
  Speaker 1: and coming in on the over, even though the public
• 1:52:11
  Speaker 1: probably is gonna be playing overs in Mississippi games as
• 1:52:14
  Speaker 1: well because they like their offense. Eighty one percent tickets,
• 1:52:17
  Speaker 1: eighty three percent of the cash coming in on it,
• 1:52:19
  Speaker 1: so the money seems to be agreeing with it. We'll
• 1:52:22
  Speaker 1: see how I do with a total, which I almost
• 1:52:25
  Speaker 1: never give out totals in anything besides baseball. I don't
• 1:52:28
  Speaker 1: know if I'm gonna start doing it more if my
• 1:52:30
  Speaker 1: ability to read totals has improved. I've never really I know,
• 1:52:32
  Speaker 1: I've done this for like almost two decades now, and
• 1:52:35
  Speaker 1: I have just never really been a totals guy. Just
• 1:52:37
  Speaker 1: has never really been part of my arsenal. Let's expand
• 1:52:40
  Speaker 1: the arsenal. Man, Let's do it and not the British
• 1:52:45
  Speaker 1: soccer team. That's gonna do it? Man? Once again, the
• 1:52:48
  Speaker 1: plays for tomorrow college football are Florida plus seven, Arkansas
• 1:52:52
  Speaker 1: minus four and a half and over fifty five and
• 1:52:55
  Speaker 1: a half in South Carolina and will miss all SEC tomorrow.
• 1:52:59
  Speaker 1: That's gonna do it, hopefully, like the analysis, mister Pinsey,
• 1:53:02
  Speaker 1: thanks for hanging out and being the only one tonight
• 1:53:05
  Speaker 1: that's gonna do it. I'll learn its own on Twitter,
• 1:53:07
  Speaker 1: learn its own on Instagram. Uh like, subscribe to the
• 1:53:10
  Speaker 1: channel here, tell people about it. Hopefully we get back
• 1:53:13
  Speaker 1: on the winning track here. Yeah, and listen on audio
• 1:53:18
  Speaker 1: as well. Spotify, Apple give me a good review over
• 1:53:21
  Speaker 1: there that helps me out as well, and then covered
• 1:53:26
  Speaker 1: in you because my yuke channel on YouTube, so check
• 1:53:28
  Speaker 1: that out as well. And patreon dot com slash learned
• 1:53:30
  Speaker 1: it to where there's some yuke stuff I know, I
• 1:53:32
  Speaker 1: don't know offer a whole lot right now. I should
• 1:53:34
  Speaker 1: do more, but yeah, there's a Spotify feed with the
• 1:53:38
  Speaker 1: yuke stuff there, and then which I still have to
• 1:53:41
  Speaker 1: get that last Halloween one that I did up on
• 1:53:44
  Speaker 1: the Spotify feed, which I haven't done yet, the Misfits
• 1:53:46
  Speaker 1: one that I did for Charles. I don't know where
• 1:53:48
  Speaker 1: Charles is tonight either, but hopefully people will be back
• 1:53:51
  Speaker 1: in the morning for this. And yeah, there were prioritize
• 1:53:54
  Speaker 1: uke requests on there as well. And at some point
• 1:53:56
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna be announced because I am going to be
• 1:53:58
  Speaker 1: doing another sport podcast with a co host. It's gonna
• 1:54:02
  Speaker 1: be kind of niche, so I don't know if I
• 1:54:05
  Speaker 1: want to say too much about it yet, but that
• 1:54:06
  Speaker 1: is going to be starting soon, so we will see.
• 1:54:09
  Speaker 1: So I'm gonna be doing a lot, so we'll we'll
• 1:54:12
  Speaker 1: see how it goes. Man. I appreciate it, man, mister Pinsey,
• 1:54:16
  Speaker 1: thanks for hanging out. I will see you tomorrow. Tomorrow,
• 1:54:19
  Speaker 1: of course we'll be doing the morning show. It should
• 1:54:21
  Speaker 1: be a bit of a shorter show, although we will
• 1:54:24
  Speaker 1: have to talk World Series again. I'll talk about what
• 1:54:26
  Speaker 1: happened today with my losses and the one win which
• 1:54:29
  Speaker 1: was which was the World Series play that I give
• 1:54:31
  Speaker 1: out spur of the moment after I forgot to handicap
• 1:54:34
  Speaker 1: it this morning. And then yeah, there'll be a little
• 1:54:39
  Speaker 1: they'll be I think a decent amount of hockey. I
• 1:54:41
  Speaker 1: think hockey usually there's a lot of hockey on Saturday.
• 1:54:45
  Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure in NBA, I think is a little
• 1:54:47
  Speaker 1: bit lighter. So we'll see. But I'll be there tomorrow
• 1:54:50
  Speaker 1: to talk about those. That's gonna do it for now,
• 1:54:53
  Speaker 1: and then tomorrow night NFL show as well, which I
• 1:54:55
  Speaker 1: don't love the NFL board either. I only have one play,
• 1:54:58
  Speaker 1: which you guys already know is Carolina plus the points.
• 1:55:00
  Speaker 1: But I'll give the analysis on that and we'll see
• 1:55:03
  Speaker 1: if I find any more things that I like on
• 1:55:05
  Speaker 1: the NFL board. That's gonna do it for now, peace man.
• 1:55:09
  Speaker 1: Until a few hours from now, Peace