Latest / China Considered / Bottom-Up vs. Top-Down: Inside the US and Chinese Innovation Systems with Chenjian Li | China Considered | Hoover Institution
Transcript
- 0:08- Welcome to China Considered, a podcast that brings fresh insight
- 0:11and informed discussion to one
- 0:13of the most consequential issues of our time,
- 0:15how China's changing and changing the world.
- 0:18I'm Liz Economy, Hargrove Senior Fellow
- 0:20and co-director of the Program on the US, China,
- 0:22and the World at the Hoover Institution at
- 0:24Stanford University.
- 0:26Today we're gonna speak with Dr. Chen Lee,
- 0:28a renowned molecular geneticist who's on lead from his
- 0:31position as university chair at Ping University
- 0:34to spend time here at the Hoover Institution
- 0:36as research fellow Dr. Lee has worked
- 0:39inside both the Chinese and American research systems.
- 0:41And we're gonna talk about how those systems differ
- 0:44and what those differences mean for the future
- 0:45of biotech innovation and global competition. Welcome cj.
- 0:50- Thank you, Liz, for inviting me.
- 0:52And I've been watching your, this episode by episode
- 0:57and I'm glad I can contribute.
- 0:58And thanks for everybody for tuning in and listen.
- 1:02- Okay, so let's start, you know, from a big picture,
- 1:05you have the rare really experience
- 1:09of having spent decades in both United States
- 1:12and China as a leading innovator
- 1:14and leading neuro neuroscientist.
- 1:16As you think about the systems, the research sort
- 1:19of ecosystems in both the United States
- 1:22and China, what do you see as the relative strengths
- 1:24and weaknesses of each system?
- 1:27- It's a great question.
- 1:29I think in discussing that,
- 1:31I wanna put something right upfront,
- 1:33which is China is developing very fast.
- 1:37So whatever we saw 10 years, five years ago may
- 1:41or may not apply to today.
- 1:42So I'm trying to add a dynamic sense of that.
- 1:47If I have to characterize the two systems, if interestingly,
- 1:51I will say it's very similar to the economic system
- 1:55in which in the United States,
- 1:58the strength is really bottom up
- 2:02grassroots innovation.
- 2:04And on the China side, it's really
- 2:08a government supported top down approach.
- 2:12For example, in the United States,
- 2:14almost every innovation comes from basic research
- 2:18that stems from decades
- 2:21and decades of professor's work, sometimes obscure.
- 2:26And nobody knows what this guy's doing for many, many years.
- 2:30And the society as a whole, especially the universities,
- 2:34just supported them for decades and suddenly it boomed.
- 2:39So it's very grassroots oriented.
- 2:43The system is great.
- 2:44And that system is particularly good for
- 2:48what we called zero to one kind
- 2:51of innovation development from nonexisting.
- 2:54Nobody imagined that. Two, it's actually may work.
- 3:00For example, in ai, in gene editing, all of
- 3:04that comes from decades of work that people used
- 3:08to laugh at the word in artificial intelligence, right,
- 3:13for decades and suddenly it boomed.
- 3:15So United States is extremely good in that.
- 3:18Now China is catching up fast,
- 3:22but so far the way I think it succeeds is still
- 3:27in the, not zero to one,
- 3:29but one to 100 that range it's government support.
- 3:33And I should point out not only central government,
- 3:37but local government.
- 3:39And that is very strong.
- 3:42So for example, if you do have a field
- 3:44that they think is important, for example, battery,
- 3:49green energy, if they identify that
- 3:52as a particular field that is important, they pull billions
- 3:56and billions and they're very patient.
- 4:00So that is what they're good at.
- 4:02But now I think China is learning from the United States
- 4:07and trying to strengthen the quote unquote zero
- 4:10to one innovation side.
- 4:12So that's the biggest one I can describe.
- 4:15- So let me pick up on two points.
- 4:18Number one, how do you think China is strengthening
- 4:22to the zero to one?
- 4:23Is it because it's investing more in basic research?
- 4:26Is it because Chinese companies are becoming more engaged in
- 4:29basic research or what's changed
- 4:33to make China become better at it?
- 4:35And then you mentioned sort of the past five years
- 4:38as a period of acceleration in China.
- 4:41To what do you attribute that sort of acceleration period?
- 4:46- Yeah, there are several things I can share.
- 4:49First of all, I think China
- 4:53has been pretty strong,
- 4:56supportive in basic research
- 5:00from very early days.
- 5:04It was a matter of just no money, no expertise,
- 5:08and no international exchange.
- 5:10And with things like a cultural revolution,
- 5:13it really destroyed that side.
- 5:15But in, in the blood, I think the appreciation
- 5:20for basic research has been there.
- 5:22It was revitalized
- 5:24after 1976 when Deng Xiaoping came to power
- 5:29and reemphasize
- 5:31that science education research is important.
- 5:35And that has not changed in the administrations
- 5:40after Deng Xiaoping.
- 5:41So whether it is ING government or Hu Jinta
- 5:45or the current one, they pretty much support
- 5:48and realize the importance of basic research.
- 5:50So that has always been there.
- 5:52But the, the support wasn't enough.
- 5:56However, in the past years, I will say
- 5:59after 2000, the reestablishment,
- 6:03the recovery phase basically was done.
- 6:06And then it's playing catch up in,
- 6:09in some fields it's actually leading.
- 6:12So now government officers as well
- 6:16as people are seeing the fruit
- 6:19of supporting basic research.
- 6:22And I think the enthusiasm is now at another level.
- 6:26Plus overall the Chinese society is much richer
- 6:31than 30 years ago, right?
- 6:33It does have the resource to throw around.
- 6:36So that gives that practicality say, look,
- 6:40if you wanna have a a result, I'll give you
- 6:4530 million Chinese r and b without blinking of an eye.
- 6:49So go ahead and do it. That is new.
- 6:52And so it's, it's a positive cycle moving forward.
- 6:57And of course after mimicking going
- 7:02behind people for a long while, people realize that,
- 7:05why don't we innovate?
- 7:08I mean, there's nothing stopping Chinese scientists
- 7:11and engineers from inventing something just new.
- 7:15So I think of the combination of that makes now
- 7:19an unprecedented way of
- 7:23focusing both on the zero to one and the one to 100.
- 7:28- Yeah, I mean it's always been my sense
- 7:30that China's been very good at the sort
- 7:32of process innovation, right?
- 7:34Making things better. Yeah.
- 7:35Whether it's making them run faster or be more efficient
- 7:38or whatever it may be, faster acting.
- 7:43They're very good at that,
- 7:44but they haven't been as good at sort
- 7:47of breakthrough invention.
- 7:48Right. The sort of what you're, what you're talking about
- 7:51with the mRNA, you know, based vaccine, that's, you know,
- 7:55something that came out as you said, of decades of research,
- 7:58you know, in the United States
- 8:00and Europe that weren't really present in China.
- 8:03But now you're saying the fruits of the basic research
- 8:07are coming to to bear.
- 8:09Are there particular areas where you see China
- 8:11as like on the cusp of that breakthrough invention
- 8:14or where you would say they actually have already had kind
- 8:17of a breakthrough invention?
- 8:18Something truly new has emerged?
- 8:21- There are several that in my field I know,
- 8:25but beyond that, I'll mention several.
- 8:27I think the green energy, battery science,
- 8:31and technology are clearly seen by the world as very,
- 8:36very good rare earth material.
- 8:39I want to emphasize that it's not
- 8:43just a very wasteful,
- 8:46environmentally unfriendly thing.
- 8:49It's actually four generations
- 8:51of scientists in engineering starting from picking
- 8:54university professor, improving the efficiency
- 8:59and how well it can be done in my field.
- 9:02I can dig, go deeper if you allow me, of course,
- 9:07the aspiration of inventing, for example, new treatment,
- 9:10new drugs for combating human diseases has
- 9:14always been there.
- 9:15Remember, the only Nobel laureate from China
- 9:20- Is a woman - Who's exactly you Dr.
- 9:25- Yes, - Yes.
- 9:26- She is a women scientist.
- 9:28And remember, she, her work is entirely done in China
- 9:32during cultural revolution.
- 9:35- Yeah. - Unbelievable. As it is, it's treating malaria.
- 9:39So the inspiration aspirations always been there,
- 9:42but for a long, long time,
- 9:45remember China's biomedical research has been
- 9:49lagging and it was almost destroyed
- 9:52during cultural revolution.
- 9:54So from 1976 to year 2000 ish,
- 9:58it was a recovery time.
- 10:01But then after that, things changed.
- 10:03Just as an example in the pharmaceutical industry
- 10:08that I'm most most familiar with.
- 10:10So the first phase was doing generic drugs, generic drugs.
- 10:15Are those drugs already on the market been used
- 10:18and the patent expired.
- 10:21So you make that. So that was the first phase.
- 10:25And then the second phase is called me.
- 10:28To me better, meaning there is a target validated,
- 10:33there is a drug, but I'm trying
- 10:34to make a drug which is either more effective
- 10:38or with less side effects, somehow me, to me better.
- 10:43It's a little less challenging, but still very, very good.
- 10:48The third phase Chinese companies
- 10:52and schools experienced was called close follow.
- 10:57It's more advanced than the me to me better
- 11:00because it starts when the drug is not on the market yet.
- 11:05For example, if let's say Merck has a drug in phase two
- 11:09clinical trial, then the Chinese company say,
- 11:12looks like very promising, let's do it.
- 11:15So that's the close follow phase.
- 11:18And now I think many, many of the pharma
- 11:21or startups are eyeing on truly innovative
- 11:26first in class
- 11:28and in our field it's called the crown jewel, sort of
- 11:31that kind of achievement.
- 11:32And I can see a lot of people are doing that
- 11:36with government support, with private investment.
- 11:40So far China is yet to come up with a true first in class.
- 11:46But I predict, given another five years, I will be surprised
- 11:50that there is no first in class.
- 11:52I expect that there're probably going to be one.
- 11:55- Yeah. And I think China's always beating our expectations
- 11:58in terms of how fast they are
- 12:01to accomplish things once they sent, set their minds to it.
- 12:04So it may even be faster than five years. It
- 12:07- Could, it could, yeah.
- 12:08I, I know several of that, including one of mine.
- 12:12It, it's kept coming. What if,
- 12:14- Oh, can't we claim, can't we claim yours for,
- 12:17for United States?
- 12:18- Absolutely. Come. - Are we, maybe,
- 12:20maybe it'll be a good sign of, of US China cooperation.
- 12:23Yes, you yourself are a sign of US China
- 12:26- Cooperation.
- 12:27Yeah. Liz, I wanna add another one, which is even the zero
- 12:31to one innovation, I will say
- 12:35there is a varying degree of difficulties.
- 12:38Hmm. Some of them really,
- 12:40it will take a genius like Einstein sort of
- 12:46new to that kind of people.
- 12:47Other ones are manageable. Dr.
- 12:50Yoyo too, she was looking at how
- 12:53to treat malaria, period.
- 12:56You do everything possible and that kind of things.
- 12:59It doesn't need Einstein,
- 13:01it only need needs pretty good people.
- 13:05Really hardworking.
- 13:07- Yeah. Maybe a little bit better than pretty good
- 13:09people, but Sure. Okay.
- 13:11- Then not only China, I think Europe, many Japan,
- 13:15Australia, they all have this
- 13:17capacity. Right. In that sense.
- 13:19- Right. And that's a, I think that's
- 13:20a really important point.
- 13:21So let's, let's pick up on that issue of, of talent.
- 13:25You know, one of the things that people in the United States
- 13:28tend to obsess over is, you know,
- 13:30when we see these big numbers, right?
- 13:32So China's graduating, you know,
- 13:344 million STEM students annually compared
- 13:37to 800,000 here in the United States, of whom, you know,
- 13:40many are also from China, by the way.
- 13:43At the same time, China has a big youth
- 13:46unemployment problem.
- 13:47We know somewhere between running between 15
- 13:50and, you know, 20% over the past few years with a lot
- 13:54of graduates who can't find work is, you know,
- 13:57what is the reality of sort of the, the China sort
- 14:00of stem student talent pool?
- 14:04You know, first of all, you know,
- 14:05are those 4 million all sort of first in class graduates
- 14:08or is there a range, an array kind of, of of,
- 14:12of scientific ability, research ability
- 14:15and you know, does it include people, for example,
- 14:17who've finished, you know, two years
- 14:19of an engineering degree or something like that?
- 14:22And then, you know, what about the match
- 14:25between the 4 million STEM students
- 14:28and the labor market in China?
- 14:30Is there room for all of them to be employed?
- 14:33Or are those, are those high youth unemployment statistics,
- 14:36you know, related to, you know, people like me,
- 14:38social scientists, and others who simply can't find jobs?
- 14:42- Well, you have a very good grasp at science
- 14:46and technology questions too, Liz.
- 14:49I think your,
- 14:51this question actually can be subdivided into several
- 14:55sub questions.
- 14:57One is we compare the most innovative group of layer
- 15:01of people, which people, I mean here in the
- 15:05globally, look at that.
- 15:07But there's also the next layer of good engineering's
- 15:11students and engineers who can carry out not
- 15:16that creative, but enough
- 15:19and important solid work, right?
- 15:22So these are very different.
- 15:24So I think it will be fair to compare the top tier
- 15:27to top tier, middle to middle in the top tier
- 15:34sort of students and, and talents.
- 15:37I will say United States is still minute,
- 15:42you and I, we are blessed to be at a place
- 15:45as at Stanford, right?
- 15:47And I was lucky enough to work at Rockefeller University.
- 15:53There is a teeny tiny institution with 72 labs,
- 15:57but we, we had 26 Nobel Laureates,
- 16:03- A hundred incredible research institution,
- 16:04- Perhaps it's unbelievable.
- 16:06And I worked at Cornell Mount Sinai.
- 16:09So the top tier to top tier, I think United States is still
- 16:13better in that sense, the most creative ones.
- 16:17Now, I also worked at Peking University
- 16:20and the Peking Union Medical College,
- 16:22another school established by Mr.
- 16:24Rockefeller in history.
- 16:26And I think top to top, I would rank Peak University,
- 16:31Xing Hui University around 20
- 16:35or 25 in that range compared to US elite schools.
- 16:40And that is very competitive.
- 16:43But still, I think there is a, there's a small gap there.
- 16:48Now, the next level is quite different.
- 16:50The story, Chinese universities
- 16:54and technology schools are producing very good engineers.
- 16:58They are good at a particular field, particular technology.
- 17:03And they do that day in, day out.
- 17:06And in that sense, that layer,
- 17:09I'm not sure United States has such a, a big advantage.
- 17:14- Maybe no advantage. In fact, - I I I hesitate to say that
- 17:17- I think you can say it. I think you can say it.
- 17:19- No, actually, I honestly doubt that
- 17:22because I don't have real experience in that.
- 17:25Right. By the way, Purdue University, for example,
- 17:29established a new sort of school
- 17:31or department really focusing on the chip manufacturing.
- 17:35- Yeah. - So their claim is
- 17:37don't always just take pride in the design,
- 17:40in the best cutting edge,
- 17:43but it's important to, to be able to produce it.
- 17:46- Right. And - I applaud to that. Yeah.
- 17:48United States used to be the country
- 17:52for manufacturing, right?
- 17:54Look at our steel, automobile,
- 17:58chemical engineering,
- 17:59pharmaceutical ingredients, everything.
- 18:03And now in the past 30 years, I think us sort
- 18:06of gave up on that quite a bit, right? Right. In China,
- 18:11- I mean, we have no nuclear,
- 18:12we wanna revive our nuclear industry,
- 18:14but we're hard pressed to find many nuclear engineers.
- 18:18We simply don't have that many that even teach that. Right?
- 18:21- So even chip, chip engineers, right? Yeah.
- 18:25So I think in China, in the past 30 years really
- 18:29is leapfrogging
- 18:31- Yeah.
- 18:32- Forward. It, it just jumps up and up.
- 18:36So I think that layer United States has some catch
- 18:41up to do because the economy
- 18:45system doesn't quite reward the
- 18:49engineers, right?
- 18:51So those two are, I think this is how I feel in general.
- 18:56But in China
- 18:59there is a very big unemployment problem
- 19:03because you produce so many college students and,
- 19:07and university students.
- 19:08But the job market is not as good as it was, let's say,
- 19:13five years ago or 10 years ago.
- 19:16So I think the mismatch is clear
- 19:18and that has caught attention
- 19:22by the government, by entrepreneurs and educators.
- 19:28But the solution is something I do not have.
- 19:33How can they solve the problem of unemployment?
- 19:37Because remember last year, college grads were about
- 19:4212 million and up.
- 19:45And how do you find jobs for all of
- 19:46that when the economy is shrinking?
- 19:49Yeah. So that will remain as a challenge.
- 19:53- Yeah. And
- 19:55and what about the collaboration between
- 19:59academia, between the university and industry?
- 20:02I think this is a really important
- 20:06story in China.
- 20:08How ecosystems develop right?
- 20:12From the university, you know, to manufacturing, you know,
- 20:15and just scaling up
- 20:16where the money coming from the central government can be
- 20:19quite crucial.
- 20:20Can you talk a little bit about that process in China
- 20:23where you think it, how you think it works and,
- 20:25and does it work as well as, for example, I think it does,
- 20:29- Liz, again, I like the word you used, develop, evolve.
- 20:34Because it, it is really changing fast.
- 20:39Remember in 1976 it bin says, we,
- 20:44we need education, we need science and technology.
- 20:48But before 2000 I was in, it was a catching up.
- 20:51The real research
- 20:54that can be translated into a product
- 20:58came even later than that.
- 21:00'cause you need about a decade
- 21:02to accumulate great research
- 21:05that is actually not just fooling people, fooling ourselves,
- 21:09but actually can turn into either a chip or a medicine
- 21:13or a medical device.
- 21:15So I will say it's really
- 21:17after 2010 ish,
- 21:20there are enough good things that can honestly
- 21:25be turned into a product.
- 21:27So I will say for the past 15 years, that has been growing
- 21:31and P University was among the first ones
- 21:35to even have a tech transfer office.
- 21:39- Yeah. - As bad as it, it was, but it's learning fast.
- 21:44- Yeah. - So it supports people
- 21:48to do innovative work.
- 21:51Now here is what the top down system is not
- 21:54as flexible, supportive as
- 21:59that in the United States.
- 22:01Stanford is really one of the best examples of
- 22:05how things turn out to be from research
- 22:08to the development to a final product.
- 22:11Right? Many of our graduates are really, really shakers
- 22:16and movers in this in different fields.
- 22:19And in China it's been developing.
- 22:22So suddenly the professors, when they're trying
- 22:25to establish something, they're not regarded
- 22:28as doing something irresponsible, extra.
- 22:33They're not looked down upon anymore.
- 22:36They are encouraged to say, well yes, you, you,
- 22:38you can actually do that.
- 22:41And for example, the system
- 22:44that allows leaves of absence, right?
- 22:48Was established only a few years ago.
- 22:50Surprise
- 22:52before professors, when they do something, they have
- 22:54to do it sneakily, right?
- 22:56You have your day job and your a hundred percent.
- 22:59Now you can actually say, look, I need a year off
- 23:02to get a startup working.
- 23:06All that came within the past 10 years.
- 23:09And they're catching up fast.
- 23:11I wanna tell you something recently that I think
- 23:17developed in China,
- 23:18and I think it's extremely powerful
- 23:22and potentially important, which is what I called
- 23:27the Bridge Over Troubled Water project.
- 23:31So for our, for us professors
- 23:34to go from basic research, publishing great papers
- 23:39to an actual project development to a product,
- 23:43whether it's a drug
- 23:44or device, the first phase is always the
- 23:48hardest for us.
- 23:50That is the time we need some funding
- 23:53to move from a laboratory to a startup company.
- 23:58And the amount varies between, let's say half a million
- 24:01to 2 million to about no more than 5 million US dollars.
- 24:07That usually is a very hard obstacle for us
- 24:11because, I mean, Stanford professors are not poor.
- 24:14But coming up with $5 million,
- 24:17put it on a project, it's hard.
- 24:20Here we usually use angel investors,
- 24:25- Right?
- 24:26- That way of supporting it. It's a totally market economy.
- 24:29But in China, they're not doing it slightly differently.
- 24:33So it's a government support plus investment.
- 24:37And the way they do it is,
- 24:39we'll give you the money you need.
- 24:42And as a grant, now we all know 90
- 24:46to 95% of startups go bankrupt within five years.
- 24:50And they say, that's okay, we understand that.
- 24:53However, if you do succeed, we want a share of your company.
- 24:59So in that sense, it's similar to
- 25:02convertible notes kind of investment vehicle.
- 25:07And only thing is the government is doing it,
- 25:10the university is doing it.
- 25:12That I think is a huge booster
- 25:16because many, many, many professors will be saying, yeah,
- 25:20I will wanna try it and I'll be responsible.
- 25:23No one wants it to be more successful than I, right.
- 25:28However, if I fail, I'm not going bankrupt.
- 25:31I can still have my regular job.
- 25:34I think give it 20 years this policy,
- 25:37the bridge over troubled water
- 25:39or flying over the Death Valley.
- 25:42Two metaphors. I think it's gonna be really powerful.
- 25:47- Yeah. I still remember it was a number of years ago
- 25:50when Li Chuang was in power.
- 25:54He instituted a new policy
- 25:57to let university students leave for a year
- 26:00or so to do a startup.
- 26:03And I thought that is the beginning of a really big shift
- 26:07in Chinese thinking.
- 26:08Because you know,
- 26:09before that, I know I had done some interviews in China
- 26:14with technologists and they would say, you know, none
- 26:17of the Chinese parents wants their child to go and
- 26:21and do a startup to try to be an entrepreneur.
- 26:24They want them to go work for a big company,
- 26:26either a western company or a state-owned enterprise
- 26:29and have job security
- 26:31and make good money with good benefits.
- 26:34But I think when Leika ch you know, pushed forward with
- 26:37that initiative, it really began to crack open a system
- 26:41in some ways, you know, China a very, has had forever,
- 26:45you know, a very large entrepreneurial spirit,
- 26:48which had become, I think,
- 26:49encased in the political structure in a way that that sort
- 26:53of sometimes smothered it.
- 26:55So I thought this was a really, just a really interesting
- 26:58and important moment for the young people in the country to,
- 27:02- Yeah, Liz, I,
- 27:03I can tell you an interesting story in that line.
- 27:07'cause at that time I was the vice provost
- 27:09for P University Oh.
- 27:10And dean of the UMP college,
- 27:12we actually allocated a really big sort of
- 27:18a floor of a particular building
- 27:20to be the innovative center for students.
- 27:24- Oh, wow. - And in my UMP college, we were the first one
- 27:28to say, it's okay if you leave for a year, no problem.
- 27:31We'll support you. And so on and so forth.
- 27:34- Yeah. - And I was very happy to see that
- 27:38the students actually, I think zero came out of
- 27:43that from those things.
- 27:45That's, that's not the point.
- 27:47That's the point is students at that age, they are daring.
- 27:52- Yeah. - They, they are actually writing their business
- 27:54proposals with great market analysis
- 27:58and all that competitor analysis.
- 28:01So these people,
- 28:02although they failed at their first project,
- 28:04but give it another five, 10 years, they were exposed
- 28:08to the entrepreneur kind of thinking.
- 28:12And they're not afraid of it.
- 28:13They no longer look at Steve Jobs as a, as a God.
- 28:18And they look and say, oh actually if there's a good idea,
- 28:22I'm willing to do it a second time.
- 28:23Right. So I think just to supplement your observation with
- 28:27- No, and they don't need to look at Steve
- 28:28Jobs anymore anyway.
- 28:29They've got Jack Ma, they have their own, you know, sort of
- 28:33stars, homegrown entrepreneurs who've really done
- 28:37exceptional things.
- 28:39So I wanna switch gears a little bit to an issue
- 28:42that I know you've thought a lot about and,
- 28:44and have some, you know, concerns about.
- 28:46And that is the sort of over reliance of the United States
- 28:51and much of the rest of the world on Chinese APIs.
- 28:57You know, talk to us about the issue here.
- 29:01What is the problem that you see?
- 29:04- Okay, Liz, let's clarify the abbreviation API
- 29:08for the audience because most
- 29:09of people think in the, in the computer sense.
- 29:12Okay. The API we are talking about here is active
- 29:15pharmaceutical ingredients.
- 29:17- Thank you. Yes. - I think you are raising a very
- 29:20serious question.
- 29:22I think if I may, on a personal level, Liz,
- 29:27it's actually, I feel a profound sadness
- 29:32in discussing this question
- 29:33because to me, medicine treatment, these are the
- 29:39novel list and across humanity issues, right?
- 29:43And it feels, I feel the pain of discussing
- 29:46that in the context
- 29:48of geopolitical tension and risks.
- 29:52But we have to face it.
- 29:54So I think the problem is big,
- 29:58and I hope I'm not exaggerating
- 30:01because I do think it is as serious as weapons
- 30:05of mass destruction in the sense
- 30:08because those atomic weapons and all that, they're horrible.
- 30:13But the drugs we are talking about affects 80%
- 30:18of population, whether it's United States
- 30:21or other countries, including China.
- 30:24That's what API active pharmaceutical ingredients is about.
- 30:30The daily drugs like ibuprofen,
- 30:33the mundane ones are sleeping pills
- 30:35or let's say one has a a a needs a appendicitis.
- 30:40It is such a small surgery.
- 30:43What about the ca the anesthetics, if you go
- 30:47for a CT scan, what about the contrasting agents?
- 30:51So these are the things we're talking about.
- 30:54And I think there was a figure by
- 31:00FDA that people above 65 perc,
- 31:0465 years old in the United States, I think it was 85
- 31:09or 90% of people take at least one
- 31:12drug at least.
- 31:14So this is what we are talking about.
- 31:17If there is a breakage in the supply chain,
- 31:20we are talking about 80% of people will be affected.
- 31:25And the question goes beyond the United States, it's Canada,
- 31:29it's Australia.
- 31:31And to be serious,
- 31:34I think if we have such a kind of unfortunate situation,
- 31:39poor countries will suffer even more
- 31:42because the price will go up like crazy.
- 31:45And United States and Europe are probably okay
- 31:49because we, we can put up with higher price.
- 31:52But what about African countries?
- 31:55So I think the question is really
- 31:57beyond US China geopolitical now
- 32:02I see the problem is globally, I just feel
- 32:06for such critical things, chemicals
- 32:09and APIs to be
- 32:11so heavily depending on one place, right.
- 32:15That is dangerous.
- 32:17In United States, we have so many drugs
- 32:20and APIs, let's say 70,
- 32:2280% is dependent on import.
- 32:26United States used to make all of them right?
- 32:29In New Jersey Then it was shifted to other countries.
- 32:34India being one.
- 32:36And then, and for interestingly, it started a race
- 32:41to the bottom of economy
- 32:44because it's, it's not that profitable.
- 32:47So whoever can make it cheaper and equal quality wins
- 32:53and give 30 years,
- 32:54Chinese companies are doing extremely well.
- 32:58They're making pro products for Merck,
- 33:01Pfizer, AstraZeneca.
- 33:04But if you trace back, it's all there now,
- 33:07geopolitically it is dangerous not only
- 33:11for United States, but for other countries too.
- 33:15So I will think for such kind of things, it might be
- 33:19a better strategy to have more than one place
- 33:24that can produce it in case it needs then you can crank
- 33:28up the production.
- 33:30But how to do it, I'm still,
- 33:35- That was gonna be my next question.
- 33:36So what's the, what's the solution?
- 33:38I mean, you know, what do we do from here then?
- 33:41How do we break, how do we break this dependency? Yeah.
- 33:45'cause I think there are two different issues right at hand.
- 33:47One is something could happen within China
- 33:50that could be problematic.
- 33:51So maybe there's a factory explosion. Yes. Yes.
- 33:54You know, and, and,
- 33:55and that provides some very serious disruption or, and that,
- 33:59and I think that is the sort of the global
- 34:01where it could have global implications or,
- 34:04and we've seen both China now
- 34:06and the United States, you know, weaponize their, you know,
- 34:09sort of when other countries have dependencies on them,
- 34:12you know, weaponize that kind of le leverage
- 34:15you could imagine as it did with a little bit
- 34:18of the mask diplomacy during CO that China could choose
- 34:22to use the APIs like it did with the rare earth,
- 34:26for example, recently as a tool of negotiation
- 34:30with the United States
- 34:31or with other countries
- 34:33with which it's having a difficult political relationship.
- 34:35And that really wouldn't probably have as much
- 34:38of an impact in Africa or other countries.
- 34:41But so, so what do we do about it, I guess is the question?
- 34:44- Yeah. Yeah. I, I definitely feel, acknowledge
- 34:47that something, I'm really trying to think hard,
- 34:50but I haven't found
- 34:52- A - Good solution.
- 34:53But I will tell you what I've been trying to explore.
- 34:57One is of course, what they call the friend shore.
- 35:01If not United States, then India, some
- 35:05of the European countries or those are the places,
- 35:08or Mexico could be places that we can have friends.
- 35:12Sure. So just don't put all eggs in one basket.
- 35:16That's the strategy.
- 35:18- Okay. The second, I mean,
- 35:19I think sense, oh sorry, go ahead. Yeah,
- 35:20- Yeah.
- 35:21The second one, I'm, I'm throwing that idea out
- 35:24to be criticized.
- 35:25I think many people will say that's just not gonna work.
- 35:29I think why not invite some
- 35:33of the Chinese companies
- 35:34to have a subsidiaries in United States?
- 35:38Remember for example, attack
- 35:42was severely punished by United States government, right?
- 35:48Really, really hard time.
- 35:49The stock, I think dropped the 92% within two
- 35:53days, something like that.
- 35:54And then US government says, okay,
- 35:56we'll give you eight years.
- 35:57Because after looking at that carefully, it's, oh boy,
- 36:00- Yeah, we can't live without it, basically.
- 36:02Yes, yes. Oops. Big surprise. Yep.
- 36:05- But if you look carefully, woo,
- 36:07shop tech is establishing factories here in
- 36:10the United States.
- 36:12So is PAC Gene, so are many other con companies.
- 36:17I mean, of course they have their economic reasons,
- 36:21they have their sort of incentive to sp
- 36:26to, to spread the risk factors.
- 36:29But in the United States, I think
- 36:32we probably should encourage them to do so
- 36:35because in case of what something that we really,
- 36:39really don't want it to happen,
- 36:40those factories are actually in Texas, in Boston.
- 36:45And that will be a source of those drugs.
- 36:51And, and I will say that's at least something we should
- 36:55think about rather than rejecting that outright
- 37:00as another kind of economic invasion.
- 37:03So I'm thinking maybe we should think about this a little
- 37:07bit more, although I'm, I'm quite uncertain myself.
- 37:11- Yeah, no, I think it's a, it's a really,
- 37:13it's a really big question
- 37:15that I don't think the US government has, has yet, I mean,
- 37:19has yet to address, basically.
- 37:20Yeah. And we certainly have seen it in, you know,
- 37:22battery technology with CATL
- 37:25and you know, do we want Chinese companies that are
- 37:30ahead basically of US companies
- 37:32or have abilities that US companies don't currently have
- 37:36to come here
- 37:37and to, to manufacture, to provide jobs all good.
- 37:42But does that then stunt the ability of, you know,
- 37:46homegrown US industry to develop
- 37:49and, you know, of course China's experience, you know,
- 37:52we could say, can we learn from the Chinese experience in
- 37:55the, you know, 1980s through the 1990s Yeah.
- 37:57Of welcoming that kind of foreign investment,
- 38:00but then requiring certain things from
- 38:03those foreign investors.
- 38:05Yes. In terms of r and d, you know, investment
- 38:07or tech transfer
- 38:09or you know, whatever,
- 38:10manufacturing a certain amount in order
- 38:12to have access to the market.
- 38:13They put in many, many different kinds of stipulations
- 38:16for access to the Chinese market.
- 38:19And I'm not sure whether Chinese companies will be prepared
- 38:23to respond in the same way that many American
- 38:27and other multinationals did
- 38:30when China was just opening up.
- 38:32Right. So I think there are some complicated, I think
- 38:36around whether or not the United States
- 38:39and other countries, right, feel as though they need
- 38:41to have their own indigenous to take a word
- 38:44that's often applied to China, indigenous innovation,
- 38:47indigenous industries,
- 38:48or whether we don't need to have that in, in every sector.
- 38:53And we should just in fact welcome the Chinese companies
- 38:57who are gonna be providing us with both the technology
- 39:00that we need and jobs.
- 39:02- Yeah. - So
- 39:03- One thing, Liz, I wanna give an example to you.
- 39:06I mean, just look at Tesla, right?
- 39:10Elon Musk in, in Shanghai, Chinese government
- 39:13and local government really, really opened their arms to
- 39:18El mask and basically whatever you ask,
- 39:20we'll get it done next week, right? Something like that.
- 39:23- Right? - And their
- 39:25long-term thinking is just having you here,
- 39:29you train the workers, the engineering engineers,
- 39:32and the way you do things, we learn from it,
- 39:36- Right?
- 39:37- People can be transferred to the next xmi or, or or
- 39:41- No, I think that's exactly right.
- 39:42Exactly right. That's exactly right.
- 39:44And if you read Apple in China, the book that came out not
- 39:47that long ago, that's exactly what happened with Foxconn
- 39:51and Apple Foxconn based in China though, right.
- 39:55And all of their engineers
- 39:56and all the, the training that Apple did then went out
- 40:01to seed many, many other parts of sort
- 40:04of the iPhone ecosystem, for example, throughout China.
- 40:08So it's a really fascinating story that does,
- 40:10I think exactly what you're saying
- 40:12and maybe a really important point to make in the context of
- 40:15what the US could gain from this process.
- 40:19So I'm really glad that you, you raised that. I think it's,
- 40:22- And Liz, I do have a suggestion, again,
- 40:26a quite premature one.
- 40:29I think we can select areas
- 40:32and factories
- 40:34or companies that we really want to learn from.
- 40:38For example, if there, there's a company
- 40:41who does pretty ordinary things
- 40:43and just compete with US companies,
- 40:46we probably don't quite welcome that.
- 40:49However, if it's battery technology, which is prominent,
- 40:54we may wanna learn from them.
- 40:56- Right. - You know, another one I want to graze
- 41:00in awareness is China is no longer the one 30 years ago
- 41:04that basically people here always thinks
- 41:07that Chinese stole things from United States.
- 41:11True or not? Today,
- 41:14I think there are some fields Chinese already leading.
- 41:18- Absolutely. - And for United States,
- 41:22I think we should be confident enough
- 41:24to learn from the best, whoever they are.
- 41:27It could be a Japanese company,
- 41:28it could be Chinese, I don't care.
- 41:31A Somalian company.
- 41:32If they do something the best, I'll learn from that.
- 41:36- Right. - I think we should have this open-mindedness
- 41:41and confidence to accommodate
- 41:44and true modesty to recognize the,
- 41:47our fields we need to learn from other people too.
- 41:53- Yes. I happen to agree with you on, on that point,
- 41:57I think, and the number
- 41:58of those fields will probably increase over time.
- 42:02Yeah. So we better better figure out our path forward,
- 42:06or we may relegate ourselves to, you know, eventually
- 42:09to some sort of second tier innovation nation.
- 42:13So let's, let's turn now for a couple of of last questions,
- 42:20you know, to the cooperation between the United States
- 42:23and China, and we've sort of started
- 42:25to move in in that direction.
- 42:28You know, the challenge,
- 42:30and you kind of epitomize you,
- 42:33you yourself in one person are a collaboration basically
- 42:36between United States and China.
- 42:38But it has become, I think, increasingly difficult
- 42:42for American
- 42:43and Chinese researchers to collaborate in a number of areas
- 42:48that are considered to be somehow sensitive technologies.
- 42:52And that I think, number
- 42:54of technologies has also increased over time.
- 42:59I remember when I was in the administration
- 43:03and we had the small yard and the high fence
- 43:05and you know, the yard is,
- 43:07people kept pointing out quite accurately, the yard seemed
- 43:09to be getting bigger and bigger with more
- 43:12and more technologies.
- 43:13And nobody could quite determine, you know,
- 43:16every agency had its own list of
- 43:17what constituted critical technologies.
- 43:20And so, you know, but,
- 43:23but how do you see, you know, are there areas that you,
- 43:26where you would say, you know, actually US scientists,
- 43:31for the sake of their own, you know, development
- 43:35of their own industries, their own sort of fields here
- 43:39should not be collaborating with Chinese institutions
- 43:43or for reasons of national or economic security.
- 43:46So are there areas where you'd say, I don't think
- 43:48that's a good idea, or do you think sort of everything
- 43:52should be open for some form of cooperation?
- 43:56- I think I will go for the first one,
- 43:59which is collaborate in as many few
- 44:03as national security allows.
- 44:07That's a difficult proposition.
- 44:09I'll come back to the caveat later. So let me explain.
- 44:14I think that's where I, I want
- 44:17to wear my global citizen hat.
- 44:21Okay. As, as a physician scientist, my career is devoted
- 44:26to treating patients.
- 44:27And they are Chinese, they're Americans,
- 44:29they are Venezuelans.
- 44:31I went there for looking at the
- 44:33Huntington's disease patients.
- 44:35So in these areas,
- 44:37they really do have a global impact, a global participation.
- 44:42And I think United States leadership is not shying away from
- 44:46that, but actually be in it
- 44:49and be still a leader in that,
- 44:53in treating Alzheimer's disease and Parkinson's disease.
- 44:56I will not put a restriction in that.
- 45:00Cancer biology, I will say support them.
- 45:04If let's say China comes,
- 45:06but within next Nobel laureate
- 45:09for inventing a drug treating cancer, I will be very happy
- 45:14with it because it does not impact United States
- 45:18national security in that sense.
- 45:21It benefits everybody.
- 45:22So those are the groups I think just
- 45:25strongly I support collaboration.
- 45:29Now, the next group, another extreme, of course,
- 45:32it's purely, clearly national security sensitive,
- 45:37for example, materials making bombs or,
- 45:41or all those military ones.
- 45:43I will say it's natural.
- 45:45Nobody will allow other countries,
- 45:48people getting into it right now, the middle one.
- 45:52That's interesting. How do we look at that?
- 45:55And here, the caveat I want to mention is
- 45:59the line between basic research,
- 46:03civilian use technology
- 46:05and dual use technology,
- 46:09- Yeah.
- 46:10- Has been blurred more and more and more.
- 46:14For example, let's say mass, that used
- 46:18to be the highest intellectual, sort
- 46:21of the most pure kind
- 46:25of science.
- 46:27Now we know algorithm is in every AI product
- 46:32in every missile guided, laser guided missile in starlink.
- 46:37So the applied mass thing,
- 46:40do you call it pure science or dual usage?
- 46:44What, how do you draw the line?
- 46:46I think that is the part I am hesitating
- 46:50and I don't have a great idea how to define that.
- 46:55Now I have a second best solution to that.
- 47:00It's a practical second best,
- 47:04what I call it a poor man's Cadillac approach.
- 47:08It is anything that is publicly published
- 47:12is probably okay.
- 47:15Publication, I refer to both academic journals
- 47:20as well as patents Because in both scientific
- 47:24journals and patent applications,
- 47:27we are required detail, our methodology so
- 47:32that quote unquote, people
- 47:35with reasonable knowledge can reproduce it.
- 47:39This is a requirement when I publish my paper on the top
- 47:43journal or even middle journal, this is what I have to do
- 47:46because I have to subject myself
- 47:50to peer scientists criticism,
- 47:55and they should repeat my results.
- 47:57If they cannot, I am in trouble. Right.
- 48:01So in patent two, in patent application,
- 48:05this is a requirement.
- 48:07Now for all these things, I,
- 48:09I will thank God it's already there.
- 48:12I mean, it doesn't make sense. You are keeping a secret.
- 48:14It's already there. Then I will not put too
- 48:17much of a restriction.
- 48:19There are of course, government supported or,
- 48:23or you know, military use.
- 48:28Those are the ones I will probably cut a very clean one,
- 48:31but as long as it's publicly available,
- 48:36I will not put too much of a restriction on that.
- 48:40- Yeah. I mean I think that's very,
- 48:41those are very wise words.
- 48:43There are probably still some technologies,
- 48:45even semiconductor technology as we've seen, you know,
- 48:48what one person considers to be something
- 48:51that should be export controlled, another person thinks,
- 48:54you know, no, that's no problem.
- 48:57And so I think, you know, there, there still,
- 48:59it can be very difficult I think to draw that line
- 49:01as you suggest.
- 49:03But I do think the sort of publication, using that
- 49:06as a metric for determining whether
- 49:09or not something you know, should be able, you know,
- 49:13to be cooperated on and, and,
- 49:15and you know, by both sides is at least, at least begins
- 49:19to I think address that sort of messy middle, middle area
- 49:23that you're talking about.
- 49:24- Yeah, yeah. It can be the first line of triage.
- 49:28- Yeah. - Then we go to the second, like be more detailed.
- 49:30Right. But first line, I, I would probably use that one
- 49:35as the first approach.
- 49:38- So I wanna, you'd put your, for our, our last, you know,
- 49:41question or, so I want you
- 49:42to put your policy advice hat back on again.
- 49:46And you've been so good about offering,
- 49:48I think constructive solutions to some
- 49:50of the thorny problems that we've been discussing.
- 49:53But, you know, one of the issues, you started off
- 49:56by talking about the differences in the system
- 49:58and the state, you know, sort
- 50:00of driven top down model in China as opposed
- 50:02to the grassroots bottom up model of the United States.
- 50:07And, and the, I think
- 50:09for many people here in the United States, they've come
- 50:13to the conclusion or arriving at the conclusion
- 50:16that the United States can't simply compete
- 50:18this way anymore.
- 50:20That that massive state investment in China across
- 50:25so many areas that saw, for example, in the made in China,
- 50:292025 technologies, those sort of 10 areas
- 50:32of critical cutting edge technologies where, you know, both,
- 50:36as you say, the center
- 50:37and the local governments just, you know,
- 50:39poured money into these, into these areas.
- 50:43To the point that, you know, you had hundreds of companies
- 50:45around single, single, you know, products competing
- 50:50and many could not survive nonetheless, right?
- 50:54They've produced, you know,
- 50:55some terrific electric vehicles for example.
- 50:59But how can the US compete in this environment?
- 51:03Because I would suggest
- 51:05that it seems like something is missing
- 51:09in the US ecosystem today that would enable it
- 51:13to compete against this massively sort of subsidized
- 51:18Chinese machine.
- 51:20- Yeah, great question.
- 51:23I do have several very specific
- 51:27recommendations.
- 51:28- Great. - The first one is basic science funding.
- 51:34United States, especially
- 51:37after Second World War had a booming
- 51:41science technology for decades and decades.
- 51:45That's because we actually have been putting a huge
- 51:50sort of funding resource to basic research.
- 51:54Those are the ones seemingly we don't know,
- 51:58we're not quite sure when it was studied.
- 52:00But then it turned out to be unbelievably powerful, right?
- 52:06So I think the basic science is important.
- 52:11And I think we win by having this deep, deep,
- 52:15deep roots of greatest science in math, physics,
- 52:19chemistry, biology in engineering, computer science.
- 52:24At the beginning, I think science goes in a way
- 52:28that is different from technology is technologies usually
- 52:32have a pretty clear minded endpoint inside.
- 52:36Like, I wanna design a robot
- 52:38that can do the cooking compound chicken.
- 52:41Okay. But science is, when people studied,
- 52:45let's say a jellyfish glowing protein called the
- 52:48green fluorescent protein.
- 52:50Nobody knows how this is gonna be big.
- 52:53And eventually it turned out to be a Nobel winning thing.
- 52:58So I think the basic science is important.
- 53:01That's the source, the fountain of youth
- 53:05of all the other things.
- 53:06So that is one.
- 53:09And I think in that as a scientist
- 53:12and physician, I would plea
- 53:15the administrations do not cut NIH funding NS funding.
- 53:20Because these are our really true function
- 53:23of youth function of innovation.
- 53:26- Yeah. - The second one is, we should continue our support
- 53:30for translational work.
- 53:32And here I wanna remind all
- 53:34of us United States government has been
- 53:40doing unbelievably big
- 53:44humongous government programs.
- 53:47We should not forget that. Remember the Manhattan Project?
- 53:51- Yes, yes, - Of course. It was $2 billion at that time.
- 53:56It was completely government support, right?
- 53:59The initiation of internet
- 54:03was government supported, the moonshot
- 54:07was initiated by Kennedy.
- 54:09All these are, god knows, billions
- 54:13and dollars of projects that
- 54:18actually raised our cohesiveness
- 54:20and challenge to the whole society,
- 54:24whole science and technology.
- 54:25And I will say those are the ones we should remember,
- 54:29United States government was not shying away
- 54:32from these challenges.
- 54:34It was, I remember candidates speech
- 54:38that we, we do it not because it's easy, but
- 54:41because it's hard.
- 54:42Right? It was the famous quote.
- 54:44- Yeah. Yep, yep. - So I think we should continue that.
- 54:47And we need to identify the key areas.
- 54:50Obviously we cannot do anything in everything,
- 54:53but there are key areas
- 54:55and I think we should not shy away from that.
- 54:59And the third one is, again, another plea
- 55:03to the whole society, not only the government,
- 55:07which is United States is great
- 55:10because it really invites the global
- 55:13talents, right?
- 55:16For example, Chinese students here, 86%
- 55:20of the PhDs earned in United States state.
- 55:24- Yeah. They - Used to 86,
- 55:26- Not any, not anymore.
- 55:27Not anymore. But yes.
- 55:28- So those are the people who made their contributions
- 55:33and they identify with the ideology.
- 55:37Even Now it's the talents
- 55:41that make things work.
- 55:43So I will say US has been a magnet
- 55:46of attracting globally.
- 55:50If you are good, come over here and you have a chance.
- 55:53So I think that is so critical.
- 55:56I'm not saying homegrown Americans are not good at it.
- 56:00That's not the argument I've taught at the
- 56:03best institutions.
- 56:05And I know how a homegrown kid is just great,
- 56:10but absorbing the global talents
- 56:15is something that make us great.
- 56:19Just look around, right?
- 56:21You and I, we have, we are sitting on the same committee
- 56:24with Fefe Lee, the ai, like a really
- 56:28founding people and where is she come from,
- 56:33- Right? And and right from China,
- 56:34- No mask, Sergei Bri, just again
- 56:39and again, again, I think it is important to welcome
- 56:44people around the world, not pushing them away.
- 56:49And I do want to add a specific comment on the concern
- 56:54that some of the Chinese students here actually returned.
- 56:59Some people say, Hey, these are the people
- 57:01who brought our technology, our knowledge back to China
- 57:05and help China grow.
- 57:07Yes. I don't deny
- 57:09that China's science technology growth has a huge
- 57:13factor from that.
- 57:15And I don't deny there are a few malicious cases
- 57:20stealing intellectual property probably.
- 57:23But I will say by and large, it's a positive influence.
- 57:27And I wanna remind people of one thing, the
- 57:32science development in China,
- 57:35it is a lot more than just allowing Chinese
- 57:40to make more products,
- 57:42to be innovative in making a device.
- 57:47It's actually a way of thinking
- 57:49that China's growth is really, really in need of that.
- 57:54Because the sense of science is,
- 57:57it's about seeking truth relentlessly.
- 58:02You think about something
- 58:04and you believe the world is not what I think it is.
- 58:07It's actually what it is objectively.
- 58:11So you go for evidence, you do experiments, get data.
- 58:15When you have that, you always look at that
- 58:18with cautiousness saying,
- 58:20I think I can have a theory explaining
- 58:23that, but I could be wrong.
- 58:25I'm open to criticisms, I'm open
- 58:28to counter arguments,
- 58:31and I'm open to, I, I'm very
- 58:36at ease in criticizing my coworker's theory as well
- 58:40as the other way.
- 58:42So that is really important for any society,
- 58:46for China to be an open society,
- 58:50to build a national consensus.
- 58:52So that is, don't forget that aspect.
- 58:56This is what people coming the return needs from
- 58:59United States.
- 59:00They have been trying to bring that aspect into China.
- 59:05And I think it is important to recognize that not only ah,
- 59:10now they're able to make x, y, Z product.
- 59:14So I think we, let's be a little bit, sort
- 59:17of more open-minded
- 59:19as a global citizen, I would say.
- 59:23Let's remember that too.
- 59:26- Yeah. So wonderful, wonderful words
- 59:29to end on from your mouth to I hope the White House
- 59:33to the Trump administration's ears.
- 59:37I, I can't thank you enough for sharing, you know,
- 59:40both your deep reservoir of knowledge,
- 59:43but also just your, your wisdom
- 59:46and your thoughtfulness as, as you put it, a global citizen.
- 59:51And as somebody who really I think reflects, you know,
- 59:55the best of both the United States and China.
- 59:58And I'm grateful to Peking University for allowing us
- 1:00:02to have you for as long
- 1:00:04as they will let us have you here at the Hoover Institution.
- 1:00:07So thank you Chen.
- 1:00:09- Thank you so much, Liz. It's such a pleasure.
- 1:00:13- So if you enjoyed this discussion
- 1:00:15and would like more information
- 1:00:17and insights on China, please subscribe
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