Latest / Chuck in the Morning / Chuck in the Morning 9/25 H4: X's and O's with Hugh Millen, ABC's of the M's & Raise a Pint
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: Great to be with you. Great to have you. X's
- 0:03Speaker 1: and O's with Hugh Millen. We do it every Friday
- 0:05Speaker 1: at 9 o'clock here on the radio program. We bring
- 0:09Speaker 1: on the top analysts in the game to break down
- 0:12Speaker 1: your Seattle Seahawks to kind of get the last word
- 0:14Speaker 1: on the Seahawks before the weekend begins. So let's get
- 0:18Speaker 1: going with it. I kind of hesitate to ask you
- 0:21Speaker 1: this because this might be me just stepping right into
- 0:24Speaker 1: the lion's den here. But obviously this week here in
- 0:27Speaker 1: the morning show, we... we kind of started a little
- 0:30Speaker 1: bit of a storm that kind of filtered its way
- 0:33Speaker 1: through the Seattle media about whether or not there would
- 0:38Speaker 1: be a point in the season before the trading deadline
- 0:42Speaker 1: that with Drew Locke's success and maybe having impressed a
- 0:45Speaker 1: few teams out there, more so than he has in
- 0:47Speaker 1: the past, if somebody would get desperate enough to come
- 0:50Speaker 1: calling for him in their quarterback room to try and
- 0:54Speaker 1: make a trade. And is there a price that John
- 0:56Speaker 1: Schneider would have to consider If, in fact, somebody dangled
- 1:02Speaker 1: a package in front of him, that he would part
- 1:06Speaker 1: with Drew Locke as his backup quarterback between now and
- 1:09Speaker 1: the trading deadline. What are your thoughts now that the
- 1:12Speaker 1: dust has sort of settled? Maybe we're going to stir
- 1:15Speaker 1: it back up again. I don't know. What are your
- 1:17Speaker 1: thoughts about this?
- 1:19Speaker 2: Well, if you ask me my take, my first question
- 1:22Speaker 2: would be, are we homo sapiens or are we just
- 1:25Speaker 2: a bunch of orangutans? Because Chuck Powell asks a legitimate,
- 1:31Speaker 2: reasonable question.
- 1:34Speaker 1: Yes! I was really worried there. I'm not going to
- 1:36Speaker 1: have to fight Hugh. This is not fun fighting Hugh
- 1:39Speaker 1: on the air. Are we going to have to lose–
- 1:41Speaker 1: do we lose our minds?
- 1:42Speaker 2: Do we not understand the context in which he was asked?
- 1:46Speaker 2: Because when I look at this and I say, okay–
- 1:50Speaker 2: If this were to happen, it's generally a team that
- 1:53Speaker 2: would say, hey, this guy can come in and on Wednesday,
- 1:57Speaker 2: the first practice of the week, he can step up.
- 2:00Speaker 2: He knows enough of the verbiage. And generally, is there
- 2:04Speaker 2: a past relationship? So all you have to do is
- 2:07Speaker 2: just kind of look at Drew Locke's past. You know,
- 2:11Speaker 2: in the Broncos, he had Rich Scanzarello, who came from
- 2:15Speaker 2: the Shanahan tree at both Atlanta and San Francisco, so
- 2:18Speaker 2: he knows the Shanahan tree. He had Shane Waldron here,
- 2:22Speaker 2: you know, who came from the McVay tree, and he
- 2:25Speaker 2: is now the passing game coordinator and assistant head coach
- 2:29Speaker 2: at the Jaguars. What if the Jaguars are flying high
- 2:32Speaker 2: and Trevor Lawrence gets hurt for the season?
- 2:34Speaker 1: Right. Right?
- 2:36Speaker 2: And then... And then they're looking and they're saying, wait
- 2:38Speaker 2: a minute, Drew Locke's available. The trade deadline is not
- 2:43Speaker 2: until week nine. And so now we've got several weeks
- 2:48Speaker 2: of a healthy Sam Darnold. And let's say Jalen Milrow
- 2:52Speaker 2: is practicing his ass off and they feel like that's
- 2:55Speaker 2: a risk they're willing to take. The Lions, what if
- 2:58Speaker 2: the Lions are flying high and something happens to Jared Goff? Well,
- 3:04Speaker 2: let's look at that. The passing game coordinator for the
- 3:06Speaker 2: Lions is Mike Kafka, who was at the Giants and
- 3:10Speaker 2: had Drew Locke then. I mean, I can be here
- 3:12Speaker 2: all day. What if the Buccaneers don't? Zach Robinson runs
- 3:16Speaker 2: the straight from the Rams dialect. Well, Drew Locke knows that. Or, okay,
- 3:22Speaker 2: that's one branch. What if we flip it around and say,
- 3:26Speaker 2: what if Chuck Powell was doing Boston Radio, sports radio
- 3:30Speaker 2: in 2017, and he says, hey, Jimmy Garoppolo has started
- 3:34Speaker 2: two games for us.
- 3:36Speaker 1: What happens if we get a trade offer? And then
- 3:38Speaker 1: he gets a bunch of calls and he goes, are
- 3:39Speaker 1: you crazy? The Patriots just went to the Super Bowl.
- 3:43Speaker 1: They're a Super Bowl contender again. Why would you trade
- 3:46Speaker 1: Jimmy Garoppolo?
- 3:48Speaker 2: Well, because his contract is ending and you might get
- 3:52Speaker 2: a good offer.
- 3:53Speaker 1: And then everybody's excoriating Chuck Locke in Boston.
- 3:57Speaker 2: Well, all of a sudden, the 49ers, who are 0-8,
- 4:01Speaker 2: they give a second rounder. And so then the Patriots
- 4:05Speaker 2: make that trade, and now all of a sudden Chuck
- 4:08Speaker 2: Powell looks clairvoyant. So this could happen with the Browns.
- 4:12Speaker 2: This could happen with the Jets and what have you. Now,
- 4:16Speaker 2: I want to say, do I think that Drew Locke
- 4:18Speaker 2: is going to be traded?
- 4:20Speaker 1: No, I do not. If I had to bet, yes
- 4:22Speaker 1: or no. Right, I don't either. But it's a legitimate question.
- 4:26Speaker 2: First of all, we could all say that every single
- 4:28Speaker 2: Seahawks fan can agree on two things. Number one, none
- 4:32Speaker 2: of us want Drew Locke to go. And every single
- 4:36Speaker 2: one of us will be happy to trade Drew Locke
- 4:40Speaker 2: for the right price.
- 4:41Speaker 1: If you don't believe me, how about three number ones?
- 4:45Speaker 2: OK, so if you're a CR fan and you don't
- 4:47Speaker 2: want to trade Drew Locke for three number ones and
- 4:49Speaker 2: you want to just hold him for a couple of months,
- 4:51Speaker 2: I have insurance. OK, I think you're a dope and
- 4:54Speaker 2: I'm a dope for bringing that up because that's an
- 4:56Speaker 2: absurd proposition. But I'm taking you to an absurd place
- 4:59Speaker 2: so that we can agree that there is a price,
- 5:03Speaker 2: which is all Chuck Powell ever said when when he
- 5:05Speaker 2: first brought this up. And so at any event, I
- 5:09Speaker 2: think I've made my point. And finally, I say this.
- 5:12Speaker 1: I think he sounds brilliant right now. Man, I don't
- 5:15Speaker 1: know if you've ever sounded better. Man, he's so smart.
- 5:17Speaker 1: And by the way. Everybody knows you're the smartest guy
- 5:19Speaker 1: in football.
- 5:22Speaker 2: Well, and I think we might have to take our
- 5:25Speaker 2: boy Anders to give him the rookie treatment and tape
- 5:28Speaker 2: him to the goal post.
- 5:30Speaker 3: Uh-oh.
- 5:31Speaker 2: Because his, you know, they say that straw man, don't
- 5:34Speaker 2: have a straw man argument.
- 5:36Speaker 1: I think this was a straw child. because, Anders, I
- 5:39Speaker 1: love you to death.
- 5:40Speaker 2: Your normal lofty standards for yourself, you didn't quite hit those.
- 5:47Speaker 1: On the poll when you just, you know, you didn't
- 5:50Speaker 1: explain it in the context. Okay. At any event, and
- 5:53Speaker 1: I say that with a wink and a smile. Yeah.
- 5:54Speaker 2: Because we love Anders. And so, Anders, get your head
- 5:58Speaker 2: in the game and get back to your lofty high standards.
- 6:00Speaker 1: Yeah.
- 6:00Speaker 2: And we're going to leave you a tape to the
- 6:02Speaker 2: goalpost for, you know, a half hour. Well, you know,
- 6:06Speaker 2: the veterans will come and we'll untape you after a while,
- 6:08Speaker 2: but you gotta, you gotta sit and stew on that one.
- 6:10Speaker 1: All right. It's rookie treatment. I understand. All right. All right.
- 6:13Speaker 2: So now, now we're, I think we're all clear. We
- 6:15Speaker 2: can get, get onto the weekend. Man, the plan had
- 6:19Speaker 2: me going. I gotta tell you.
- 6:22Speaker 1: I really didn't know which way you were going to
- 6:23Speaker 1: go with that. I'm like, do I really want to
- 6:25Speaker 1: on a Friday argue with Hugh Millen about whether or
- 6:30Speaker 1: not to trade our backup quarterback? And again, I never
- 6:33Speaker 1: said to. I don't want to. But there is a
- 6:36Speaker 1: price as you framed it perfectly. And if we stop
- 6:41Speaker 1: being orangutans about it, as I said, and we just like, hey,
- 6:46Speaker 1: what is Chuck's trying to say?
- 6:48Speaker 2: Is there any merit? And yes, there's two. You know,
- 6:51Speaker 2: I'm giving you several options. One would be a contending team.
- 6:54Speaker 2: And then there's the flip, the opposite of a team
- 6:56Speaker 2: that's out of it.
- 6:58Speaker 1: And I don't think it'll happen.
- 7:01Speaker 2: But there is absolutely a reasonable case where it would happen.
- 7:04Speaker 2: You know, you get a second, third rounder and you
- 7:06Speaker 2: feel like you're halfway through the year. You can you
- 7:08Speaker 2: can you can, you know, manage the risk. that's associated
- 7:16Speaker 2: with it? You think Milrow could come in? There are scenarios,
- 7:20Speaker 2: many of which I think make it a reasonable question.
- 7:23Speaker 2: So I thought you got unfairly blasted. And so in
- 7:27Speaker 2: any event, I'm just looking to kind of, again, the
- 7:34Speaker 2: point you have to say is these kind of, and
- 7:37Speaker 2: by the way, oh, here's another important point. What if
- 7:41Speaker 2: Drew Locke walks into Mike McDonald's office right before the
- 7:45Speaker 2: trade deadline and says, hey, you know, the Jaguars just
- 7:48Speaker 2: lost Trevor Lawrence. You know, with my age and everything
- 7:53Speaker 2: we've been talking, will you please trade me? I know
- 7:57Speaker 2: that they want to come trade for me. You know,
- 7:59Speaker 2: all these other teams, like if he's, you know, John
- 8:02Speaker 2: Schneider comes in and they're going to say, you know what?
- 8:04Speaker 2: Thanks for your service. You did a hell of a job.
- 8:07Speaker 2: We're going to hold our breath and hope that Sam
- 8:10Speaker 2: doesn't get hurt. But you know what? If that's what
- 8:12Speaker 2: you want, you're going to be a free agent anyways.
- 8:14Speaker 2: You've got a chance to go get... Right now, he's
- 8:17Speaker 2: probably in the $ 15- 20 million a year range. He has
- 8:23Speaker 2: a chance to go play and And advance his career,
- 8:26Speaker 2: go make some more money and solidify.
- 8:29Speaker 1: If Drew Locke asked, he says, hey, listen, if.
- 8:31Speaker 2: You don't trade me, I'm going to be a good soldier.
- 8:35Speaker 2: I'm going to keep supporting Sam, keep being a great teammate. But,
- 8:40Speaker 2: you know, if you're willing to consider it, I'd love that.
- 8:44Speaker 2: You think the Seahawks aren't going to take that into account?
- 8:46Speaker 2: So there's a lot of scenarios where this could happen.
- 8:49Speaker 2: But again, if I'm a betting man, you hand me
- 8:50Speaker 2: $ 10, 000 in a sack, and you said on one condition,
- 8:53Speaker 2: you have to bet, yes or no. Are the Seahawks
- 8:55Speaker 2: going to trade Drew Locke?
- 8:57Speaker 1: I wouldn't hesitate. I would say no. But I also
- 8:59Speaker 1: don't think it's absurd. All right. Well, there's a reason
- 9:02Speaker 1: they call him the best analyst in the business, Hugh Millen,
- 9:05Speaker 1: because he– You know, he just nails it every once
- 9:09Speaker 1: in a while. Just absolutely nails it. Anders, are you
- 9:13Speaker 1: getting claustrophobic? No, I feel pretty good. You feel all right?
- 9:17Speaker 2: Yeah. Being taped all taped up and getting the rookie treatment? Yeah.
- 9:20Speaker 1: You got to go through it every once in a while. Yeah.
- 9:23Speaker 1: All right. Yeah. Just once. Just a rookie.
- 9:25Speaker 2: Just a rookie.
- 9:28Speaker 1: Hugh Millen, X's and O's. Let's get to some X's
- 9:30Speaker 1: and O's because this does look like a mismatch on paper.
- 9:33Speaker 1: And you, there just aren't many NFL games that I
- 9:36Speaker 1: just sort of. I mean, I realize any given Sunday,
- 9:39Speaker 1: anything can happen, but it really does feel to me
- 9:42Speaker 1: like this is just a mismatch. I don't see a
- 9:46Speaker 1: way the Seahawks don't beat the commanders on Sunday, but
- 9:50Speaker 1: maybe I'm being silly about that. Yeah. All signs point to,
- 9:56Speaker 1: a dominant win.
- 9:57Speaker 2: You go back a year ago where the Seahawks had
- 10:02Speaker 2: 11 explosive plays at 23%. The commanders were at just 10%.
- 10:09Speaker 2: Sam Darnold was pressured just 4% of the time. That
- 10:13Speaker 2: allowed him to have a successful game. And then by contrast,
- 10:18Speaker 2: commander quarterbacks were pressured 31% of the time, average depth
- 10:23Speaker 2: of target. Sam was loading it up and rocking at
- 10:26Speaker 2: 9.3 yards down the field. The commander's just 5.6. So
- 10:32Speaker 2: now you look at the Seahawks pass up. offense EPA
- 10:37Speaker 2: per drop back. I think Sam Darnold can keep that going.
- 10:40Speaker 1: They're fourth. The, the commanders are at 29th. That's expected
- 10:45Speaker 1: points added by the way.
- 10:46Speaker 2: I hope everybody's, if you're into stats, um, you know,
- 10:49Speaker 2: learning about expected points added, uh, and that stat because
- 10:53Speaker 2: all the saber matricians are referring to that with a
- 10:56Speaker 2: greater frequency.
- 10:57Speaker 1: Um, so yeah, yeah.
- 10:58Speaker 2: I mean, I'm looking at a whole page of stats that, that, uh, that,
- 11:02Speaker 2: that really suggests exactly what you said.
- 11:04Speaker 1: And I, I, you know, the, Is it as simple
- 11:08Speaker 1: as just don't turn the ball over and win? Is
- 11:10Speaker 1: it that simple?
- 11:11Speaker 2: Well, let me address that because I did a dad,
- 11:18Speaker 2: a 33rd team asked me to present on this. And
- 11:21Speaker 2: so I kind of rolled up my sleeves and dug deep.
- 11:24Speaker 2: I did five one year studies beginning in 2021 through 2025.
- 11:27Speaker 1: Got me. And and.
- 11:33Speaker 2: What I did is I correlated and you look at
- 11:36Speaker 2: there are there were one thousand four hundred twenty four games.
- 11:42Speaker 2: That means there's two thousand eight hundred forty eight offenses.
- 11:45Speaker 4: Right.
- 11:45Speaker 2: To to relate. If you win the turnover battle. Anders,
- 11:52Speaker 2: can you free one of your arms from that goalpost
- 11:54Speaker 2: tape and write this down?
- 11:55Speaker 1: Someone has to come remove it, but yes. Just wedge
- 11:58Speaker 1: it out. Okay. Write this down.
- 12:00Speaker 2: So you're going to win at a 775 rate if
- 12:01Speaker 2: you win the turnover battle.
- 12:04Speaker 1: Got me? Okay. You got that?
- 12:05Speaker 4: Yep.
- 12:05Speaker 2: But you tie the turnover battle 23% of the time.
- 12:17Speaker 2: And that's an important thing. So when people say, if
- 12:20Speaker 2: you win the turnover battle, well, wait a minute. What
- 12:23Speaker 2: about if you tie the turnover battle? Okay. Well, in
- 12:28Speaker 2: that case, you go exactly 500 in your wins. So
- 12:33Speaker 2: now let's go for the, this is the last five
- 12:35Speaker 2: years in the NFL. This is exhaustive. Now we say,
- 12:39Speaker 2: what about just winning the passer rating? The passer rating.
- 12:43Speaker 2: We've been talking about passer rating since.
- 12:46Speaker 1: 1970, right?
- 12:46Speaker 2: It's a simple formula. If you win the passer rating battle,
- 12:51Speaker 2: you win the game at a 782 rate. Now, what
- 12:57Speaker 2: did I say about winning the turnover battle?
- 12:59Speaker 1: 775, Hugh. Yeah, you win the passer rating, you win
- 13:03Speaker 1: at a 782.
- 13:03Speaker 4: So.
- 13:06Speaker 2: And then, now here's another one. Now, this is goofy.
- 13:08Speaker 2: Nobody comes out. Even Chuck, who says, hey, give me
- 13:12Speaker 2: the no cliche. So I could go off the grid,
- 13:15Speaker 2: and this is going to be kind of wonky. The
- 13:18Speaker 2: yards per dropback battle. Got me?
- 13:21Speaker 1: Yards per dropback battle.
- 13:25Speaker 2: And yards per dropback is your attempts, yards per attempt,
- 13:29Speaker 2: which includes sacks and scrambles. That's why it's dropback. Over
- 13:33Speaker 2: five years, the lowest you ever had in any game was.
- 13:36Speaker 1: 24.
- 13:36Speaker 2: The highest was 14.2 yards, and the average is 6.3 yards. Now,
- 13:45Speaker 2: if you said win the battle, now you're just at
- 13:49Speaker 2: over 50%.
- 13:51Speaker 1: But let's go back to the turnovers.
- 13:53Speaker 2: If you win the turnover battle, because of all the ties,
- 13:58Speaker 2: when you tie the turnover battle, If you win the
- 14:00Speaker 2: turnover battle, you're only in the top 38.5%. You got me?
- 14:04Speaker 2: You're not in the top 50.1%. You're in the top 38.5%.
- 14:08Speaker 2: Does that make sense?
- 14:10Speaker 1: Does that make sense?
- 14:12Speaker 2: Winning the turnover battle doesn't put you in the top half.
- 14:15Speaker 2: It puts you in the top 38.5%. So now let's
- 14:18Speaker 2: go over to the yards per dropback. And we say,
- 14:21Speaker 2: what if we are going to be in the top 38.5%
- 14:24Speaker 2: of yards per dropback to equate that with the turnover?
- 14:30Speaker 2: To be in the top 38.5%, you got to win
- 14:33Speaker 2: the dropback battle by 0.73 yards. Now, that is really
- 14:39Speaker 2: kind of arcane for me to come on the radio
- 14:42Speaker 2: and say, hey, Chuck. To win this game, you've got
- 14:44Speaker 2: to be 0.73 yards, win the drop-back battle by 0.73
- 14:49Speaker 2: or more.
- 14:50Speaker 1: It sounds silly, right?
- 14:51Speaker 2: People can't process it when they're driving around trying to
- 14:54Speaker 2: find what exit they're going to get off the highway.
- 14:57Speaker 1: But it's reality.
- 15:00Speaker 2: If you win by 0.73, that puts you in the
- 15:02Speaker 2: top 38.5, which is just like winning the turnover battle.
- 15:06Speaker 2: What's the game win percentage? 0.801. You're over 80% of
- 15:11Speaker 2: the games if you win the yards per dropback battle by. 73,
- 15:16Speaker 2: which puts you in the top 38.5%, which is what
- 15:20Speaker 2: happens when you win the turnover battle, right? If you
- 15:23Speaker 2: have two-to-one turnover, you won it because you got one more.
- 15:28Speaker 2: But what about on one-to-one games like the Commander game
- 15:31Speaker 2: was last year?
- 15:33Speaker 1: What about two to two games or zero to zero games?
- 15:35Speaker 1: All those ties.
- 15:36Speaker 2: So this is what happens when you hear all these analysts,
- 15:40Speaker 2: these network analysts, they come and say, well, this is
- 15:43Speaker 2: what happens when you win the turnover battle.
- 15:45Speaker 1: Yeah, you're forgetting all the ties of the turnover battle.
- 15:50Speaker 2: And so at any event, so now, and the reason
- 15:53Speaker 2: I say this, because when we say win the turnover battle,
- 15:57Speaker 2: it implies what?
- 15:58Speaker 1: Well, you know what it implies?
- 16:00Speaker 2: It implies let's squeeze the quarterback. Let's not have him
- 16:05Speaker 2: have big plays.
- 16:07Speaker 1: Right. Let's let's be really cautious.
- 16:10Speaker 2: Well, the passer rating and certainly the yards per drop
- 16:13Speaker 2: back battles imply something else.
- 16:16Speaker 1: Like, let's be aggressive.
- 16:17Speaker 2: You beat the Arizona Cardinals last year or last week.
- 16:20Speaker 2: You had nine explosive plays. The Cardinals had one. And
- 16:25Speaker 2: even with that, with Drew Locke balling his ass off,
- 16:27Speaker 2: it was 7-7 at halftime, and it was 17-7 after
- 16:30Speaker 2: three quarters. Well, if you had been saying, we can't
- 16:33Speaker 2: turn it over, we can't turn it over, we can't
- 16:35Speaker 2: turn it over, maybe it's not 17-7 going into the
- 16:38Speaker 2: fourth quarter, maybe it's 10-7.
- 16:40Speaker 1: Now you get a punt block or something fluky happens,
- 16:43Speaker 1: and all of a sudden, you're biting your nails trying
- 16:45Speaker 1: to win that game.
- 16:46Speaker 2: But because you were more aggressive and you were getting
- 16:49Speaker 2: the big plays and what have you, now you blow
- 16:52Speaker 2: them out.
- 16:52Speaker 1: Do you see what I'm trying to get at? Yeah, absolutely.
- 16:55Speaker 2: I don't like the, we got to win the turnover
- 16:58Speaker 2: battle because it muzzles the quarterbacks. And it doesn't square
- 17:03Speaker 2: with statistics. If you consider how ties are in the turnovers. Now,
- 17:08Speaker 2: having said all that against the commanders.
- 17:11Speaker 1: Yeah. Probably just don't turn the ball. Right.
- 17:17Speaker 2: Right.
- 17:18Speaker 1: Because I care. I mean, the point is, you can
- 17:21Speaker 1: have Kirk Cousins. I'll take Brett Favre. Let's go play
- 17:24Speaker 1: a football game. Yeah, exactly. Right.
- 17:26Speaker 2: It's you know, it's just who who pays the most taxes,
- 17:29Speaker 2: the guys that make the most money.
- 17:30Speaker 1: Right. Like there's just like the more big plays you're
- 17:33Speaker 1: going to get.
- 17:35Speaker 2: You're going to have to pay a tax of a
- 17:37Speaker 2: turnover a little bit here and there.
- 17:39Speaker 1: But guess what?
- 17:40Speaker 2: It's going to– well, I just laid out– and last year,
- 17:45Speaker 2: if you remember, I did the correlation. The correlation is
- 17:50Speaker 2: basically at zero. In fact, it's slightly negative in terms
- 17:56Speaker 2: of the correlation to winning. So I'm not going to
- 18:01Speaker 2: get into all that. I've already– discuss the point enough,
- 18:03Speaker 2: but the correlation of turnovers isn't what you think it is.
- 18:07Speaker 2: But the correlation of yards per dropback and EPA per
- 18:11Speaker 2: play and what have you are exceedingly high. I think,
- 18:14Speaker 2: I think the, the, the correlation to turnovers was, was 0.014.
- 18:19Speaker 2: Imagine a baseball player hitting 14, but the, the, the
- 18:25Speaker 2: yards per dropback was 0. pushing 700 like imagine the
- 18:29Speaker 2: difference in a baseball player who hits 675 and one
- 18:32Speaker 2: who hits 14 not 140 14 right so um.
- 18:37Speaker 1: At any event um yeah tyrod taylor has a 1.8
- 18:40Speaker 1: percent uh interception rate um sam darnold has a 2.3
- 18:46Speaker 1: i'll take sam yeah pay a little bit more tax
- 18:49Speaker 1: and get it but make a lot more money yeah Yeah, exactly.
- 18:54Speaker 1: All right, man. Great stuff. Awesome as always.
- 18:57Speaker 2: I don't know how much we talked about the game,
- 18:59Speaker 2: but we talked ball.
- 19:00Speaker 1: Yeah, we talked ball. Can I get un-taped now? Yeah.
- 19:05Speaker 1: All right. All right. Let that be a warning. I
- 19:07Speaker 1: will un-tape you. All right. You get both your arms back.
- 19:10Speaker 1: All right. Sweet. All right. Guys, enjoy the weekend a
- 19:13Speaker 1: little bit. Thank you. All right. Our QB1 Hugh Millen
- 19:17Speaker 1: joining us for an X's and O's segment right here
- 19:21Speaker 1: on the morning show. Man, he never sounded smarter, right? Yeah. Yeah.
- 19:24Speaker 1: Until he said to take me to the goalpost. No, no.
- 19:27Speaker 1: That was part of it. Okay. All right. Fair enough.
- 19:31Speaker 1: By the way, why don't you take all of this
- 19:34Speaker 1: great knowledge? You now have new data in terms of
- 19:37Speaker 1: what really does win football games. Head on over to
- 19:39Speaker 1: Tulalip Resort Casino. Take advantage of that new data that
- 19:42Speaker 1: nobody else is using because everybody else uses the turnover
- 19:45Speaker 1: ratio data. And they're not going to be as successful.
- 19:48Speaker 1: Hugh Millen just mapped it out for you. Take his data,
- 19:50Speaker 1: go ahead and run that through your filter and then
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- 20:05Speaker 1: up next, ABC's of the M's on Sports Radio 93.3 KJRFM.
- 20:12Speaker 4: Now back to the Washington State Beef Commission's Football Friday
- 20:16Speaker 4: with Chuck in the Morning on your home for the NFL,
- 20:19Speaker 4: Sports Radio 93.3, KJR-FM.
- 20:20Speaker 1: Yes, we are going to get to the ABCs and
- 20:22Speaker 1: the M's, but we do have a little bit of
- 20:31Speaker 1: breaking news. Oh, I am so shocked. I cannot believe
- 20:46Speaker 1: this story. Man, it has really blindsided me. Do I
- 20:51Speaker 1: sense a tiny bit of sarcasm from you? I haven't
- 20:53Speaker 1: brought this up 14 billion times on the show, so
- 20:58Speaker 1: I am gobsmacked. According to Ian Rappaport, it has begun.
- 21:04Speaker 1: The 49ers' Nick Bosa is going to be out four
- 21:07Speaker 1: weeks with a calf injury. Huh. Substation. I'll be damned.
- 21:13Speaker 1: One of the guys that gets hurt every year is
- 21:15Speaker 1: going to be out for a while. Hey, Anders, I
- 21:19Speaker 1: bet he'll be the only one. Yeah, you think this
- 21:22Speaker 1: is it? No. This isn't a trend or anything? No,
- 21:24Speaker 1: these veterans are always healthy. They never get hurt. Yeah.
- 21:32Speaker 3: I mean, honestly, could you imagine the frustration as a
- 21:34Speaker 3: Niners fan? It's like you feel like you have a
- 21:37Speaker 3: really good team, but you cannot get rid of the
- 21:41Speaker 3: injury book.
- 21:41Speaker 1: Well, I think that they just have guys that are
- 21:44Speaker 1: never going to get rid of the injury bug. This
- 21:46Speaker 1: isn't a fluke. They have guys that have gotten hurt
- 21:50Speaker 1: and can't stay healthy at this point. And it's not
- 21:52Speaker 1: that they're not trying. Look at Nick Bosa's body, for
- 21:55Speaker 1: goodness sake. He looks like the tick. He's obviously in
- 21:58Speaker 1: the gym. He's trying to stay healthy. There's just a
- 22:01Speaker 1: point that some guys get to where they can't. And
- 22:04Speaker 1: I think they've got like four or five guys that
- 22:06Speaker 1: can't stay healthy. They've just taken too much abuse on them.
- 22:09Speaker 1: over the years. And so I don't know why this
- 22:11Speaker 1: season would have changed with those guys. And this is
- 22:14Speaker 1: our first indication that it's not going to change. All right,
- 22:17Speaker 1: let's do the ABCs of the M's.
- 22:19Speaker 4: You say we dig into mariners baseball in alphabetical order
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- 22:40Speaker 1: That We'll start with AS for Adios. As I've mentioned
- 22:44Speaker 1: a few times this week and even on today's show,
- 22:47Speaker 1: I think we're going to be saying goodbye this weekend
- 22:49Speaker 1: to a lot of Mariners. We'll get to the broadcaster
- 22:53Speaker 1: in a moment. Foreshadowing. But also. J.P. Crawford, Randy Rosarino,
- 23:00Speaker 1: I think George Kirby could be gone after this season,
- 23:03Speaker 1: if not him, Logan Gilbert, perhaps even both. There are
- 23:06Speaker 1: going to be some guys that have been around for
- 23:08Speaker 1: a long time and have given us a lot of
- 23:09Speaker 1: good performances, a lot of good memories that are probably
- 23:13Speaker 1: playing their last games this weekend. But, of course, the
- 23:16Speaker 1: most prominent name in all of that is Dan Wilson,
- 23:18Speaker 1: who is a franchise legend and, by all accounts, one
- 23:21Speaker 1: of the nicest people that has ever been a part
- 23:23Speaker 1: of the Seattle Mariners organization. He's just not a very
- 23:26Speaker 1: good manager. And this season, a team that was projected
- 23:31Speaker 1: to win 90 games is going to finish with about
- 23:33Speaker 1: 75 this year. And it's just such a far cry
- 23:38Speaker 1: from what they were capable of. And so Dan Wilson
- 23:43Speaker 1: will be let go. It sounds like there's going to
- 23:47Speaker 1: be a press conference maybe Tuesday. But, Anders, I think
- 23:50Speaker 1: that that deed will be done by Sunday night. I
- 23:54Speaker 1: think they will announce it while football is going on.
- 23:57Speaker 1: And then it won't be front page news on a
- 24:00Speaker 1: Monday morning anywhere, or at least it will have to
- 24:03Speaker 1: share the front page with a Seahawks game and Seahawks coverage.
- 24:09Speaker 1: I think they're going to, from a PR standpoint, strategize
- 24:12Speaker 1: to soften the blow as much as they possibly can
- 24:15Speaker 1: so that we're not all fixated only on Dan Wilson's fire.
- 24:19Speaker 1: If they wait to announce it on Tuesday, it'll be
- 24:21Speaker 1: the only topic in town on Tuesday, and we will
- 24:24Speaker 1: talk about it. for four hours pretty much on all
- 24:27Speaker 1: uh four of our shows here at KJR so my
- 24:30Speaker 1: guess is they are going to announce it as soon
- 24:32Speaker 1: as the game is.
- 24:33Speaker 3: Over yeah two questions for you a do you think
- 24:36Speaker 3: it'll be like a mutual parting of ways or Dan
- 24:39Speaker 3: Wilson resigns or do you think it will be he
- 24:41Speaker 3: is relieved of his duties and b does it matter.
- 24:43Speaker 1: To you it doesn't matter to me I'm not like
- 24:46Speaker 1: trying to shame Dan Wilson I just don't want him
- 24:48Speaker 1: to be the manager anymore and I think there's I
- 24:52Speaker 1: actually I I mean, nobody's going to be happy about
- 24:55Speaker 1: it in the organization, but I do believe there is
- 24:58Speaker 1: going to be a little bit of satisfaction to say,
- 25:03Speaker 1: we did this. He wasn't right, and we made the move.
- 25:08Speaker 1: I think they're going to own it. I think they're
- 25:10Speaker 1: going to want to own it. I don't think they're
- 25:11Speaker 1: going to do this, what do you want us to say? No,
- 25:14Speaker 1: I think that there is this, damn you, like... We
- 25:19Speaker 1: built you a good enough team and look what you
- 25:21Speaker 1: did with it. And it's not all on him. Like
- 25:24Speaker 1: I've said before, I put it on the players first,
- 25:27Speaker 1: but he obviously, his job, bottom line, is to get
- 25:32Speaker 1: the most out of the talent given him. And there's
- 25:34Speaker 1: no way that he got the most out of the
- 25:36Speaker 1: talent given him.
- 25:37Speaker 3: No, and for me, I think it does matter. Probably
- 25:40Speaker 3: not as much as, you know, for a lot of people,
- 25:43Speaker 3: but the accountability question has been raised. many times with
- 25:47Speaker 3: this organization this year, specifically, this would go a long
- 25:51Speaker 3: way in kind of saying, Hey, we, we take credit
- 25:56Speaker 3: or blame for how this goes or how this season went.
- 26:00Speaker 3: And we're going to do what's right to try and
- 26:01Speaker 3: fix it. It is our decision to do this. It's
- 26:03Speaker 3: not like we're trying to just save face with him
- 26:06Speaker 3: or anything like that.
- 26:07Speaker 1: Yeah. Well, um, it's going to happen. I mean, it
- 26:10Speaker 1: looks like it's a foregone conclusion and, uh, And then
- 26:13Speaker 1: we'll start looking for a new manager. But, you know,
- 26:16Speaker 1: nobody's taking joy in it. Dan's a really nice guy,
- 26:19Speaker 1: and nobody wanted to see it. I don't think this
- 26:22Speaker 1: has to tarnish his legacy as a mariner. No. But
- 26:26Speaker 1: he should not be the manager of a baseball team. Yeah,
- 26:28Speaker 1: I agree. And this was a bad, bad year of
- 26:32Speaker 1: managing a baseball team. B is for broadcaster. Of course,
- 26:38Speaker 1: the celebrated, hyped, promoted... Adios is going to be for
- 26:43Speaker 1: Rick Riz. And of course, Dave Niehaus is the voice
- 26:46Speaker 1: of the Mariners that is most directly connected to the
- 26:49Speaker 1: Mariners and for obvious reasons. But 41 years as part
- 26:54Speaker 1: of the Mariners and somebody that loves Dave Niehaus more
- 26:57Speaker 1: than anybody, even though a little bit in his shadow
- 27:00Speaker 1: for a lot of those 41 years. but we'll say
- 27:03Speaker 1: goodbye to Riz over the weekend. He'll still be around.
- 27:07Speaker 1: I mean, we're not going to say goodbye, goodbye to
- 27:09Speaker 1: Rick Riz, but he's going to call his last game.
- 27:11Speaker 1: His last goodbye baseball is going to happen at some
- 27:14Speaker 1: point this weekend. And I think he's going to be
- 27:17Speaker 1: a mess. Yeah.
- 27:19Speaker 3: They did announce on Mariners TV that I think either
- 27:22Speaker 3: the last few innings or the entirety of the game
- 27:24Speaker 3: on Sunday will be just Riz on the radio, like
- 27:28Speaker 3: him alone. He's going to get a chance to like,
- 27:30Speaker 3: Talk about, you know. Everything?
- 27:32Speaker 1: Everything, yeah. I think somebody better be there, though. Just
- 27:34Speaker 1: in case. I think it's going to hit him pretty hard. Yeah,
- 27:38Speaker 1: I think so, too. I'm going to miss him. I
- 27:40Speaker 1: think he's ready to go, but I think it's going
- 27:42Speaker 1: to hit him pretty hard. That Cal Raleigh chest protector thing,
- 27:46Speaker 1: did you see that? Mm-hmm. That he's going to wear
- 27:48Speaker 1: this weekend with Riz's face on it. That's very cool.
- 27:51Speaker 1: Great gesture from Cal. And you don't have to worry about, hey,
- 27:56Speaker 1: make sure that you, you know, wave to Riz if
- 28:01Speaker 1: you're at the game. You don't have to give anybody
- 28:05Speaker 1: any instructions. They all have them on their minds. So
- 28:11Speaker 1: great job, Riz. Great career, and good luck trying to
- 28:15Speaker 1: get through the weekend without crying. Finally, C is for Cal,
- 28:19Speaker 1: and we've talked about this a couple times today, but
- 28:22Speaker 1: I think he spelled it out really well in the
- 28:24Speaker 1: dugout yesterday, and I think he's been wanting to do
- 28:27Speaker 1: that for a long period of time. And I think
- 28:30Speaker 1: that the things that he pointed out are kind of inexcusable, forgivable,
- 28:35Speaker 1: you know, going into next year. It's not like you're
- 28:39Speaker 1: going to hold it against them, but some of the
- 28:41Speaker 1: things that he was pointing out are inexcusable. The lack
- 28:44Speaker 1: of focus, the lack of execution all season long, and
- 28:50Speaker 1: then the lack of effort slash energy at times, and
- 28:55Speaker 1: then the other aspects that he counted as reasons for
- 28:59Speaker 1: why they weren't good the bad defense why were we
- 29:02Speaker 1: the worst defense in major league baseball and i think
- 29:04Speaker 1: that goes back to effort not effort execution and focus
- 29:08Speaker 1: yeah and mike patriello actually came out with um you
- 29:12Speaker 1: know the worst defensive uh teams since 2016 when fielding
- 29:17Speaker 1: run value was added to the stack cast and for
- 29:20Speaker 1: those who don't know fielding run value it it all
- 29:22Speaker 1: encompassing you take in outs above average your your arm
- 29:25Speaker 1: your double plays converted uh receiving catchers all a bunch
- 29:29Speaker 1: of metrics are put into one and the mariners are
- 29:32Speaker 1: the fifth worst defensive team since 2016 with a negative
- 29:38Speaker 1: 57 fielding run value. It was bad. It was bad.
- 29:41Speaker 1: It was not good this year. It was really bad.
- 29:45Speaker 1: I could have done CS for coaching. and wilson be
- 29:48Speaker 1: let go i think maybe the whole staff's gonna be
- 29:50Speaker 1: let go i think maybe the only one they're gonna
- 29:52Speaker 1: fight for is pete woodworth yeah we'll see because i
- 29:55Speaker 1: mean then he might not want to stay if you're
- 29:56Speaker 1: gonna get rid of all my coaches all my buddies
- 29:59Speaker 1: over the years maybe it's time for me to move
- 30:00Speaker 1: on too they might just flush out the entire.
- 30:03Speaker 3: Coaching and i and i think that might be needed
- 30:05Speaker 3: like um obviously you're not gonna like fire everyone in
- 30:09Speaker 3: the the scouting department and all that stuff but uh
- 30:12Speaker 3: some new coaching voices i think would do this group
- 30:14Speaker 3: a world of good.
- 30:15Speaker 1: Yeah Not the way we wanted the conversations to go
- 30:20Speaker 1: on September 25th, 2026.
- 30:22Speaker 3: Yeah, it does. I wish we were talking about our
- 30:24Speaker 3: playoff rotation. Who should we call up to the roster?
- 30:28Speaker 3: Who's playing versus righties and lefties and stuff like that.
- 30:30Speaker 1: But we're not.
- 30:31Speaker 4: Yeah.
- 30:31Speaker 1: Yeah. All right. We're going to close out the show
- 30:35Speaker 1: with a brand new Friday segment. Sports Radio 93.3 KJR FM.
- 30:41Speaker 1: We used to do the booze news. And then we
- 30:43Speaker 1: always do one last thing. And now that we have
- 30:47Speaker 1: changed things around a little bit here at the radio station,
- 30:51Speaker 1: what is our new Friday bit? Well, we're kind of
- 30:54Speaker 1: combining the two. I say we're going to raise a pint.
- 30:58Speaker 1: Raise a pint. We go around the room. Raise a
- 31:01Speaker 1: pint to someone or something that you would like to
- 31:04Speaker 1: acknowledge before the week comes to a close. You got
- 31:07Speaker 1: something in mind? I do. Thank you. Thank you, Travis.
- 31:10Speaker 1: I appreciate that. Oh, nice. Speaking of that man behind
- 31:13Speaker 1: the glass. Yeah. We've mentioned it a couple of times
- 31:16Speaker 1: on the air. He has been.
- 31:19Speaker 3: Just a trooper and doing a bunch of different broadcasts
- 31:23Speaker 3: doing the morning show, uh, which, you know, when you're not,
- 31:26Speaker 3: which is punishment enough, exactly. But when you're not kind of, um,
- 31:32Speaker 3: trained to have this as your sleep schedule, uh, he's
- 31:35Speaker 3: done it for now over two weeks. And, uh, I
- 31:38Speaker 3: want to just give a quick shout out and a
- 31:39Speaker 3: quick cheers.
- 31:40Speaker 1: Quick, raise the pint, raise a pint, Travis Moger, the TMO.
- 31:44Speaker 1: Thank you. The Jew fro himself.
- 31:45Speaker 4: Yeah.
- 31:46Speaker 1: Former. Oh, no, no. It's tight now. Nice and tight now. Ah, yes. Well, yeah,
- 31:53Speaker 1: I'll raise a pint to Travis Moger for sure. Thank you. And,
- 31:57Speaker 1: you know. I think unless he follows up with, I
- 32:01Speaker 1: would like to raise a pint to the next person
- 32:05Speaker 1: that hires me away from this. Then we might have
- 32:10Speaker 1: to retract it. Yeah, we'll see.
- 32:12Speaker 3: And as someone who had to do the cracking game
- 32:14Speaker 3: last night before doing the morning show today.
- 32:18Speaker 1: I now relate to your pain. All right, Travis. Well,
- 32:24Speaker 1: you're the first person ever featured in Raise a Pint.
- 32:27Speaker 1: I'm honored. Who are you going to raise a pint to?
- 32:29Speaker 5: I'm going to raise a pint to Matt Hasselbeck. It
- 32:33Speaker 5: is his birthday today.
- 32:36Speaker 1: He is 51 years old. Raise a pint to Matt Hasselbeck,
- 32:41Speaker 1: Boston's finest.
- 32:44Speaker 5: And he was, I came to see, I grew up
- 32:46Speaker 5: in Los Angeles. I came to Seattle when I was
- 32:48Speaker 5: 18 and he was the quarterback here when I came
- 32:51Speaker 5: to Seattle and I became a Seahawks fan immediately.
- 32:54Speaker 1: Oh, wow. Awesome. I mean, I didn't have a team
- 32:56Speaker 1: in LA.
- 32:57Speaker 5: But became a Seahawks fan and watched him go to
- 33:00Speaker 5: the Superbowl and come so close.
- 33:03Speaker 1: I know. Robbed. I know.
- 33:04Speaker 2: Robbed.
- 33:05Speaker 1: He knows. He knows. You know who knows? He does. Yeah.
- 33:08Speaker 1: I think so. Probably has nightmares. It's true. I really
- 33:14Speaker 1: wanted to.
- 33:14Speaker 5: Raise a pint to Matt Hasselbeck on his birthday.
- 33:17Speaker 1: I love it. Look, I can't talk about this, but
- 33:22Speaker 1: we might be hearing more from Matt Hasselbeck. So we'll see.
- 33:29Speaker 1: So I don't mind rising a pint to rise in
- 33:31Speaker 1: a pint. You know what? I don't want to get
- 33:34Speaker 1: all mushy on this show with our first raise a pint.
- 33:38Speaker 1: I don't know. I didn't know that Anders was going
- 33:41Speaker 1: to raise a pint to Travis. I'm not raising a
- 33:43Speaker 1: pint to you. I'm raising a pint to Ashley Ryan.
- 33:47Speaker 1: to Ashley Ryan, uh, and to Ian Furness on their
- 33:50Speaker 1: new midday radio program. Uh, so I raise a pint
- 33:55Speaker 1: to you. Uh, hope that, uh, your first, has it
- 33:59Speaker 1: been two weeks? Is it already been two weeks? Your
- 34:01Speaker 1: two weeks have been a smashing success. Hope you guys
- 34:04Speaker 1: are having fun together. I hope that Ashley's like, finally,
- 34:07Speaker 1: somebody that I can work with. Uh, and I hope that, uh,
- 34:10Speaker 1: Ian is, uh, Not missing Anders Hurst too much, but
- 34:16Speaker 1: I know that he is embracing Ashley Ryan on their program.
- 34:20Speaker 1: A cheers to our midday noon to three radio program,
- 34:25Speaker 1: Ian Furness and Ashley Ryan.
- 34:27Speaker 3: And we hope everything is going just as you dreamed. Yeah,
- 34:30Speaker 3: I've listened a couple of times. I sound great together.
- 34:32Speaker 3: I think I mean, not as good as us. Yeah, good.
- 34:36Speaker 1: But good. Can get to that point. Right. Exactly. Although
- 34:42Speaker 1: I will say Ian may have upgraded. Well, yeah, that's
- 34:45Speaker 1: for sure. Yeah. Unfortunately, she didn't. Yeah. You know what
- 34:52Speaker 1: I'm saying? Canadians. Damn Canadians.
- 34:57Speaker 3: Canadian and a coug. Now, I don't hate the cougs. Like,
- 35:01Speaker 3: I'm not a true husky or anything like that. But
- 35:03Speaker 3: when you put those two things together.
- 35:05Speaker 1: Oh, I know. I know. Yikes. Now he's going to
- 35:08Speaker 1: have hockey season starting soon. Oh, man. All right. Well,
- 35:12Speaker 1: that's going to do it for us today. Thank you
- 35:14Speaker 1: very much. We'll work on the new segment. You know,
- 35:17Speaker 1: rounded into form. No, I like it too. Yeah. I
- 35:20Speaker 1: think it's got some legs. For sure. Yeah. Maybe I'll
- 35:22Speaker 1: actually bring some drinks in next time. Yeah, maybe we'll
- 35:24Speaker 1: have some actual alcohol and, yeah. Exactly. I like that, though.
- 35:28Speaker 1: That's the chink. It scared me at first, though, when
- 35:31Speaker 1: I heard it. It's like, whoa! What happened? I guess
- 35:33Speaker 1: I should have warned you. Sorry. I'm like, what is that?
- 35:35Speaker 1: What happened? But all right. Have a great weekend. We
- 35:40Speaker 1: raise a pint to you all. Thank you very much
- 35:42Speaker 1: for listening to us here. We'll be back Monday morning
- 35:45Speaker 1: with some Monday morning quarterback at 6 a.m. Coming up next,
- 35:49Speaker 1: it's Greg Bell. It's Jessamyn McIntyre on Sports Radio 93.3
- 35:52Speaker 1: KJR FM.