Latest / Bloomberg Intelligence / Fox to Buy Roku at $22 Billion Value in Streaming Video Push
Transcript
- 0:02Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the
- 0:10Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am
- 0:14Speaker 1: Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg
- 0:17Speaker 1: Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts,
- 0:21Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube.
- 0:24Speaker 2: It is Monday, which means there's always an M and
- 0:26Speaker 2: a deal or two to go over, and the latest
- 0:29Speaker 2: one is one. In the media space, Fox buying Roku
- 0:33Speaker 2: at a twenty two billion dollar valuation. Fox hears are lowered.
- 0:37Speaker 2: That tends to happen the acquired down seventeen percent. In
- 0:40Speaker 2: this case, Roku, interestingly enough, is also lowered down by
- 0:44Speaker 2: one percent.
- 0:44Speaker 3: Let's bring in Githa Ranganath.
- 0:46Speaker 2: And she is our US media analyst here at Bloomberg Intelligence. Githa,
- 0:49Speaker 2: let's start first with what is Fox buying when it
- 0:53Speaker 2: acquires Roku?
- 0:54Speaker 3: What does it want from Roku?
- 0:56Speaker 4: Here?
- 0:57Speaker 5: So what Fox wants Scarlett is exposure to digital media.
- 1:02Speaker 5: So Fox is one of those legacy media companies that
- 1:05Speaker 5: really kind of doubled down on live TV, and if
- 1:08Speaker 5: you look at their revenue mix right now, they have
- 1:10Speaker 5: about ninety percent exposure to the linear TV ecosystem. You
- 1:15Speaker 5: compare that to some of their peers, even a Paramount
- 1:17Speaker 5: Guidance or a Warner Brothers Discovery, which are exposed about
- 1:20Speaker 5: fifty to fifty five percent. So Fox definitely one of
- 1:23Speaker 5: the most heavily exposed. They've you know, they've played it
- 1:27Speaker 5: pretty safe, so they've stayed away from the really expensive
- 1:30Speaker 5: streaming wars when everybody was, you know, spending billions, tens
- 1:33Speaker 5: of billions of dollars on content to just kind of
- 1:36Speaker 5: get streaming subscribers. They stayed away from that. But they've
- 1:39Speaker 5: always kind of been shoring up capital to make this
- 1:42Speaker 5: big play into digital you know, advertising into digital streaming,
- 1:47Speaker 5: and that's exactly what they're doing today with this Roco acquisition.
- 1:51Speaker 5: It helps them build up their digital advertising business, and
- 1:54Speaker 5: it really helps them win the streaming war in a
- 1:58Speaker 5: very unique way because Roku is a streaming aggregator, so
- 2:02Speaker 5: Roco gets paid no matter which streaming service wins. And
- 2:05Speaker 5: I think that's really a unique benefit here for Fox.
- 2:09Speaker 4: I have to Omitkeeth.
- 2:10Speaker 6: I'm surprised that the stock is down as much as
- 2:11Speaker 6: it is, down sixteen percent.
- 2:13Speaker 4: Why do you think that is?
- 2:15Speaker 7: So?
- 2:16Speaker 3: One thing, Paul, is that this is a pretty big deal.
- 2:18Speaker 5: So if you just look at Fox's you know, market cap,
- 2:21Speaker 5: for instance, it's close about twenty five billion. This this
- 2:24Speaker 5: deal is you know, the equity value of the deal
- 2:26Speaker 5: is about twenty five billion. So definitely a really, really
- 2:30Speaker 5: a big size deal from a size perspective, and more important,
- 2:34Speaker 5: I mean Fox has always been very very good in
- 2:37Speaker 5: terms of its balance sheet management. They've had, you know,
- 2:40Speaker 5: a pristine balance sheet, very low levels of debt, have
- 2:43Speaker 5: always committed to you know, a strong capital returns program
- 2:47Speaker 5: and stock buybacks. And I think people are a little
- 2:50Speaker 5: bit nervous right now because they are going to be
- 2:52Speaker 5: taking on quite a sizable debt load with this transaction,
- 2:56Speaker 5: more than twelve billion dollars in debt.
- 2:59Speaker 3: And while they've promise to.
- 3:00Speaker 5: Kind of maintain their capital returns, I think the street
- 3:03Speaker 5: is still a little bit nervous.
- 3:05Speaker 2: Is there any reason to think that regulators might have
- 3:09Speaker 2: any objections to this? And I ask thinking that it's
- 3:12Speaker 2: probably not because Fox is pretty close to the Trump
- 3:14Speaker 2: administration and this is an administration where you know, friends
- 3:18Speaker 2: get good treatment.
- 3:19Speaker 5: Absolutely I totally agree with you there, Scarlett. I think
- 3:23Speaker 5: you know, the Murdochs obviously have this really close relationship
- 3:27Speaker 5: with the president, with the current administration.
- 3:30Speaker 3: The only thing that I.
- 3:31Speaker 5: Would raise here is there is a little element of
- 3:34Speaker 5: vertical integration. So Fox obviously owns content in terms of
- 3:37Speaker 5: you know, news, interms of live sports, access to a
- 3:41Speaker 5: lot of live sports properties. And with Roku, it's really
- 3:46Speaker 5: more of distribution, right. Roku has access to one hundred
- 3:49Speaker 5: million global streaming households, over fifty percent of the US
- 3:54Speaker 5: broadband households, so that really gives them that whole distribution arm.
- 3:59Speaker 5: And so regulators could make a case that this becomes
- 4:01Speaker 5: again a case like you know, Comcast, where you have
- 4:04Speaker 5: the cable business and you have content, and so you
- 4:08Speaker 5: know whether there need to be any concessions or or
- 4:10Speaker 5: whether you know, regulators are going to scrutinize it a
- 4:12Speaker 5: little bit more closely.
- 4:14Speaker 6: This is kind of I would say, the coming out party,
- 4:17Speaker 6: if you will, for Lachlin Murdock a little bit here.
- 4:20Speaker 6: What's the what's the call there, what's the thought there?
- 4:22Speaker 6: Is this a management team that can pull off such
- 4:25Speaker 6: a big deal.
- 4:27Speaker 3: I think they can.
- 4:28Speaker 5: Uh, They've been very very measured, Paul, as you well know,
- 4:31Speaker 5: in terms of you know, acquisitions, in terms of M
- 4:33Speaker 5: and A in just terms of general strategy. But we
- 4:36Speaker 5: know that they've always been itching to do a deal.
- 4:39Speaker 5: You know, they've they've they've done small deals much more quietly, uh,
- 4:43Speaker 5: and they've they've had this very eclectic collection of different assets,
- 4:47Speaker 5: but really kind of spreading their bases a little bit.
- 4:50Speaker 5: So they went out and they got all of these uh,
- 4:54Speaker 5: you know, stakes and a lot of sports betting assets
- 4:56Speaker 5: again kind of identifying all the growth of you know,
- 5:00Speaker 5: pockets if you will. And so I think, you know,
- 5:02Speaker 5: this deal obviously they've it's a huge deal. They've considered
- 5:05Speaker 5: it over a long period of time, and I think
- 5:08Speaker 5: they feel like this, you know, with with the with
- 5:11Speaker 5: the purchase of Roku, obviously they do get to supercharge
- 5:14Speaker 5: their own advertising business pretty substantially. But then again, you know,
- 5:19Speaker 5: they also get economics, uh from any streaming platform, right
- 5:24Speaker 5: because Roku gets paid. They're pretty much like an Apple store,
- 5:27Speaker 5: So they get that thirty thirty five percent cut no
- 5:30Speaker 5: matter which streaming service you subscribe to. So I think that,
- 5:34Speaker 5: you know, Fox was obviously trying to get a part
- 5:36Speaker 5: of those owners' economics as well.
- 5:38Speaker 2: Is there any reason to think that someone else might
- 5:40Speaker 2: come in with a higher bid, could this result in
- 5:43Speaker 2: any kind of bidding war?
- 5:45Speaker 5: So we think, so we just ran some numbers Scarlet
- 5:48Speaker 5: and we think that you know, the Roku, I mean,
- 5:50Speaker 5: the number is actually a little bit underwhelming. So yes,
- 5:54Speaker 5: Fox is paying about a thirty five percent premium to
- 5:57Speaker 5: where Roku was trading prior to all of this news.
- 6:01Speaker 5: But if you just compare some of the Roku profitability numbers,
- 6:06Speaker 5: so just this quarter or just a few months ago,
- 6:09Speaker 5: they started disclosing their advertising revenue as well as their
- 6:12Speaker 5: subscription revenue. And what was more interesting than the breakout
- 6:15Speaker 5: of the revenue itself was the gross margin. So you
- 6:17Speaker 5: look at advertising revenue, for instance, it's a sixty percent
- 6:20Speaker 5: gross margin business, which is really really a profitable business stream,
- 6:24Speaker 5: a profitable revenue stream. And then you kind of apply
- 6:27Speaker 5: some of the multiples that peers are trading at, I mean,
- 6:29Speaker 5: whether it's a Google or a Meta or even a
- 6:31Speaker 5: Netflix and Spotify on the subscription side, and we think
- 6:34Speaker 5: it's actually slightly undervalued, so maybe almost thirty percent undervalued
- 6:38Speaker 5: to some of where those peers are trading. And I
- 6:40Speaker 5: think that's what the market is slightly disappointed about today.
- 6:43Speaker 5: Both the price as well as the fact that this
- 6:45Speaker 5: was not one hundred percent cash to you, so only
- 6:48Speaker 5: sixty percent of it is cash. The remaining forty percent
- 6:51Speaker 5: is being paid by Fox Stock Classy Stock.
- 6:56Speaker 3: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.
- 7:02Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live
- 7:06Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Coarclay, and Android
- 7:09Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever
- 7:12Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
- 7:16Speaker 6: It's Monday means we get some merger Monday stuff happening.
- 7:19Speaker 4: We had a little bit m and A in the
- 7:22Speaker 4: tech space today.
- 7:23Speaker 6: Salesforce the du Bui ai customer service firm Finn for
- 7:28Speaker 6: three point six billion dollars.
- 7:30Speaker 4: What's going on here in the world of technology?
- 7:31Speaker 6: Anag Rana Bloomberg Intelligence, Senior Technology analyst, joints us here
- 7:35Speaker 6: on Salesforce buying Finn. First, tell us what Finn is?
- 7:40Speaker 4: Why is Salesforce buying it?
- 7:42Speaker 7: Yeah, it's We were actually lucky. Just a few months
- 7:45Speaker 7: ago we had the founder of Finn on our podcast
- 7:50Speaker 7: and we learned a lot from him. Actually, this is
- 7:52Speaker 7: really you know, you could see with AI how capitalism
- 7:55Speaker 7: shows up. This was an AI native foam which came
- 7:59Speaker 7: up with a So think about it this way. You
- 8:02Speaker 7: want to go to a chat pot, but the chat
- 8:03Speaker 7: pot is not tied to a particular software package. This
- 8:07Speaker 7: is out of a box chat pot. It would work
- 8:09Speaker 7: on any program that's behind the curve. So if you
- 8:13Speaker 7: go to let's say a healthcare firm and you're trying
- 8:15Speaker 7: to solve some issues of customer service issues, and these
- 8:19Speaker 7: guys would help you, and that's what they're buying. I
- 8:21Speaker 7: think it's a very smart move on Salesforce's part.
- 8:24Speaker 2: I believe Salesforce has its own AI agent tool, Agent Force.
- 8:30Speaker 2: Does this perhaps suggest that Agent Force isn't developing or
- 8:33Speaker 2: progressing the way that or scaling the way that Salesforce
- 8:36Speaker 2: wants it to.
- 8:38Speaker 7: I think you're absolutely right. I think this is a
- 8:40Speaker 7: signal that maybe agent Force is only made for the
- 8:44Speaker 7: software package that's behind it, which is Salesforces package. This
- 8:48Speaker 7: one is a generic chat pot that can go across
- 8:50Speaker 7: the board. So I think that's something that you know
- 8:53Speaker 7: people would need because they're only not looking at the
- 8:56Speaker 7: data that resides in Salesforce, but other areas as well.
- 9:00Speaker 7: Practice speaking, these guys have done a phenomenal job of
- 9:03Speaker 7: coming up with their own models, own technology that sits
- 9:07Speaker 7: on top of some of these systems of record. I
- 9:09Speaker 7: think it's also a defensive move by Salesforce because one
- 9:13Speaker 7: thing is if people are buying an out of a
- 9:16Speaker 7: box agent from finn or Intercom what's it called before,
- 9:19Speaker 7: then down the road you can actually start storing data
- 9:22Speaker 7: in their database. You know, then the system of engagement
- 9:25Speaker 7: becomes a system of record, and that's not a good
- 9:28Speaker 7: thing for Salesforce because that's really their bread and butter.
- 9:31Speaker 7: So I think there is a little bit of defensive
- 9:33Speaker 7: move as well, but you're absolutely right. I think this
- 9:36Speaker 7: would help their agent for practice as well.
- 9:40Speaker 6: So a stock of Salesforce is up just under one
- 9:43Speaker 6: percent today, but it is down almost thirty seven percent
- 9:45Speaker 6: year to date. An aarog salesforce is And one of
- 9:49Speaker 6: the challenges, as you've mentioned to us before, is some
- 9:51Speaker 6: of these software companies, software and service companies, they just
- 9:54Speaker 6: got to show that they can compete against AI or
- 9:57Speaker 6: compete in a world of AI. Is this act position
- 10:00Speaker 6: one way for Salesforce to say, hey, we're serious about,
- 10:04Speaker 6: you know, integrating AI into our products and offerings.
- 10:08Speaker 7: No, this is definitely that's the case. So I'll tell
- 10:11Speaker 7: you another company that is in that same rub called Sierra.
- 10:15Speaker 7: This is from the co founder of this company was
- 10:19Speaker 7: founded by a guy and by the name of Brett
- 10:21Speaker 7: Taylor who is the chairman of Opening Eye, who used
- 10:24Speaker 7: to be a co CEO of Salesforce, and he was
- 10:28Speaker 7: also the chairman of Twitter. In the last one and
- 10:31Speaker 7: a half two years, that company has just taken off.
- 10:33Speaker 7: I think the valuation is close to twenty billion dollars
- 10:36Speaker 7: and it does the same thing out of a box,
- 10:39Speaker 7: white label agents that can then interact on the behalf.
- 10:43Speaker 7: So it's becoming the front office or the front face
- 10:46Speaker 7: of some of these apps. And I think with this acquisition,
- 10:50Speaker 7: Salesforce can defend itself from somebody like Siera, who can
- 10:54Speaker 7: you know, eventually come out and start taking market share
- 10:57Speaker 7: for them. So Salesforce I think is a good deal
- 10:59Speaker 7: for them that they are more aggressive right at the
- 11:02Speaker 7: front of anything AI and they're not just depending on
- 11:06Speaker 7: their own product agent force.
- 11:09Speaker 3: So Ana, I'm just kind of looking ahead. Do you
- 11:11Speaker 3: expect other.
- 11:13Speaker 2: Enterprise software companies like a Salesforce to come out and
- 11:16Speaker 2: make similar acquisitions If this is defensive for Salesforce. What
- 11:21Speaker 2: does it do to other companies in its field of vision?
- 11:26Speaker 7: Yeah, so this wasn't just in the realm of customer service.
- 11:29Speaker 7: We call this sex agent. And there are three private
- 11:33Speaker 7: companies here Cierra, as I said, twenty billion dollars. It's
- 11:36Speaker 7: too big for, to be honest, anybody to buy frankly
- 11:38Speaker 7: from this point because Salesforce is the biggest when it
- 11:41Speaker 7: comes to customer service. Right now. There is another company
- 11:44Speaker 7: called Decacon, which is I believe the last valuation was
- 11:48Speaker 7: somewhere around eight billion. But the question is who's going
- 11:50Speaker 7: to actually buy them, because the natural buyer would have
- 11:53Speaker 7: been Salesforce, and the third one was Intercom in that framework.
- 11:57Speaker 3: Stay with us. More from Bloomeric Intelligence coming up after this.
- 12:04Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live
- 12:08Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am. He's done on Apple, Cocklay and
- 12:10Speaker 1: Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand
- 12:14Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
- 12:18Speaker 2: I want to focus on Anthropic here, Paul, because there's
- 12:21Speaker 2: some big news about how the company was ordered to
- 12:24Speaker 2: bar access for an access to its best AI models
- 12:27Speaker 2: ordered by the government.
- 12:28Speaker 6: In fact, Yeah, that doesn't seem like a good development
- 12:31Speaker 6: for them. So it's if you're thinking about going public exactly.
- 12:34Speaker 2: So let's bring in Man Deep saying he's our global
- 12:35Speaker 2: tech research head here at Bloomberg Intelligence and Mandeep just
- 12:39Speaker 2: give us some context for this latest news. Anthropic is
- 12:42Speaker 2: it seems like run into situations where the US government
- 12:45Speaker 2: keeps getting involved in figuring out or determining who has
- 12:49Speaker 2: access to its AI models.
- 12:53Speaker 7: Yeah.
- 12:53Speaker 8: I mean, look, they were labeled the supply chain risks before,
- 12:57Speaker 8: and now this happened after the commercially release their mythst model.
- 13:03Speaker 8: And look, I think the concerns are around the ability
- 13:08Speaker 8: to jailbreak the model, which everyone talks about as having
- 13:15Speaker 8: capabilities that go well beyond the frontier models that we
- 13:19Speaker 8: have seen, you know, around coding agents or image generation
- 13:23Speaker 8: and those type of things. But the Methost models specifically
- 13:28Speaker 8: has a lot to offer in terms of finding vulnerabilities,
- 13:33Speaker 8: which is why all the cybersecurity companies were involved in
- 13:38Speaker 8: testing the model under Project glass Wing. And in this case,
- 13:42Speaker 8: I think Entropic just needs to work closely with the
- 13:46Speaker 8: US government, which clearly is keen to regulate you know,
- 13:52Speaker 8: Entropic and probably other frontier models, and I think they're
- 13:56Speaker 8: walking a very fine line in terms of really being
- 14:00Speaker 8: branded as supply chain risks first and then releasing a
- 14:03Speaker 8: model without really getting approvals from the government.
- 14:08Speaker 6: Mandy, you're gonna have to help me out with this one.
- 14:10Speaker 6: What does it mean to jail break a model?
- 14:14Speaker 8: Well, so in the past, if you look at, you know,
- 14:17Speaker 8: something like a Microsoft operating system, there is always, you know,
- 14:23Speaker 8: something that can basically give you access to functionality that
- 14:29Speaker 8: only Microsoft knows, or you know, somebody who's really good
- 14:33Speaker 8: at coding can figure out how to leverage the kernels
- 14:38Speaker 8: or things that are very complex in terms of how
- 14:42Speaker 8: to access the code, but can be done. And so
- 14:44Speaker 8: in this case, you know, the way Entropic released that
- 14:48Speaker 8: commercial version is they put guardrails around the MITOS model,
- 14:52Speaker 8: which is very capable. Like I said, so when they
- 14:55Speaker 8: release it commercially, they put the guardrails and said, nobody
- 14:58Speaker 8: can access that type of functionality because we have put guardrails. Well,
- 15:03Speaker 8: guess what what is guardrails. It is a piece of
- 15:06Speaker 8: code or some checks and balances that somebody sophisticated may
- 15:11Speaker 8: be able to say, Okay, this is the prompt by
- 15:13Speaker 8: which I can bypass this guardrail that has been put
- 15:17Speaker 8: in place, and so something along those lines is what
- 15:19Speaker 8: seems to have happened here.
- 15:22Speaker 2: Mandy, What does this mean for anthropics plans to list?
- 15:26Speaker 2: Does it affect the timing? Does it make a roadshow
- 15:30Speaker 2: more difficult?
- 15:32Speaker 8: I mean, look, this is a company that has grown
- 15:35Speaker 8: their annual recurring revenue by five x this year, almost
- 15:39Speaker 8: the fifty billion dollar revenue run rates, so lots to
- 15:43Speaker 8: offer in terms of top line growth. I would argue
- 15:47Speaker 8: their margin structure is better than SpaceX and or open
- 15:51Speaker 8: AI for that matter. It's just that, you know, they
- 15:55Speaker 8: seem to be going on the wrong side of the
- 15:59Speaker 8: government in terms of, you know, making sure they work
- 16:02Speaker 8: with the government. They seem to be really taking them
- 16:05Speaker 8: on in a lot of ways. And I think overall,
- 16:09Speaker 8: they don't seem to have a very good message in
- 16:11Speaker 8: terms of, you know, the global deployment of these models,
- 16:16Speaker 8: and they keep talking about how the white collar jobs
- 16:19Speaker 8: losses will be huge, and I just feel the messaging
- 16:23Speaker 8: needs to improve before they, you know, do the road show,
- 16:26Speaker 8: so that that would certainly help here.
- 16:30Speaker 3: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.
- 16:37Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live
- 16:40Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android
- 16:44Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever
- 16:47Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
- 16:51Speaker 6: Here's an industry, the technology industry that's certainly bought backstock.
- 16:55Speaker 4: Now they're adding stock in the marketplace is at it.
- 16:57Speaker 3: And alphabet right in alphabet.
- 16:59Speaker 6: But that massive offering, the biggest equity offering there. It's
- 17:02Speaker 6: just it's really a different market dynamic. Let's see how
- 17:05Speaker 6: it's playing at with Carmon and Ryankey, Deputy team leader
- 17:07Speaker 6: for US Equities Bloomberg News. She joined us live here
- 17:10Speaker 6: in our studio. So, Carmen, what are you and your
- 17:12Speaker 6: team thinking about here? Is about all this new equity
- 17:16Speaker 6: issues coming into the marketplace.
- 17:17Speaker 9: Yeah, well, it was a huge thing kind of coming
- 17:19Speaker 9: into the IPO. Some people were worried Friday that you know,
- 17:23Speaker 9: there would be issues sort of with the market's internal plumbing,
- 17:26Speaker 9: and then also that the there might not be enough
- 17:29Speaker 9: demand to really absorb an IPO of this size, and
- 17:32Speaker 9: it was a record listing, and obviously the first day
- 17:35Speaker 9: of SpaceX trading really showed that that was not the case. Right.
- 17:39Speaker 9: The market, you know, digested it really well. Everything sort
- 17:42Speaker 9: of went off mostly without a hitch, and things were
- 17:44Speaker 9: pretty good. So that bodes well for some of the
- 17:48Speaker 9: other equity listings kind of coming down the pipe and
- 17:51Speaker 9: these other companies like you're just talking about Alphabet, but
- 17:55Speaker 9: as also Meta and Oracle that are listing shares to
- 17:59Speaker 9: you know, raise money to build data centers and spend
- 18:02Speaker 9: more on AI. So it does sort of represent a big,
- 18:05Speaker 9: big shift. We've seen companies really buying back their stock
- 18:09Speaker 9: to the tune of you know, twelve trillion dollars really
- 18:12Speaker 9: shrinking the total market, and so now we're seeing these companies,
- 18:16Speaker 9: some of the same companies really adding them back.
- 18:19Speaker 3: So I'm glad you bring that up.
- 18:20Speaker 2: The former dynamic because that was seen as supporting share
- 18:23Speaker 2: prices as well, this idea that they were taking shares
- 18:27Speaker 2: off the market and reducing the share account. And now
- 18:31Speaker 2: that you have IPOs coming to list and you have
- 18:34Speaker 2: the Alphabets, the Metas, the Oracles of the world selling
- 18:36Speaker 2: more shares, does that mean that you no longer had
- 18:39Speaker 2: that support for share prices and the market is more
- 18:41Speaker 2: at risk of falling.
- 18:43Speaker 9: I think that's a big concern, right because when you're
- 18:45Speaker 9: adding stock back, it's dilutive, right, and it's not that
- 18:49Speaker 9: level of support that shareholders have been getting. So it'll
- 18:51Speaker 9: be interesting to see how these companies are then maybe
- 18:55Speaker 9: returning value to shareholders. I think they would argue that
- 18:58Speaker 9: the spending that they need to do is going to
- 19:01Speaker 9: be you know, great for their businesses. AI is going
- 19:03Speaker 9: to change things and that should elevate create earnings exactly.
- 19:07Speaker 9: So I think that's the argument going for and we'll
- 19:09Speaker 9: see if investors can look at that, you know, positively
- 19:13Speaker 9: or negatively as sort of those earnings continue to roll in.
- 19:17Speaker 6: I think all this new issuance, you know, it's on
- 19:19Speaker 6: the one hand, it's good because public investors get a
- 19:22Speaker 6: chance to invest in these great companies. On the other side,
- 19:26Speaker 6: it's all concentrated into one industry and it's not helping
- 19:30Speaker 6: out what that broadening.
- 19:31Speaker 4: Out of the market performance.
- 19:32Speaker 6: But that's where the growth is, that's where the earnings are.
- 19:36Speaker 6: Presumably that's where the investment's going. And I guess I mean,
- 19:39Speaker 6: is there a concern there Carmen about yeah, kind of
- 19:43Speaker 6: AI levered well looking.
- 19:44Speaker 9: At concentration risk. I saw a stat this morning. If
- 19:48Speaker 9: you're sort of looking at the entire market and including
- 19:51Speaker 9: maybe like media and some of the TMT companies. Technology
- 19:55Speaker 9: is fifty percent of the market. That's a huge concentration
- 19:59Speaker 9: of you know, sort of all resting on the future
- 20:02Speaker 9: of this of AI. Right. Obviously people are really bullish
- 20:06Speaker 9: on it, but you know, things can be bumpy. We
- 20:08Speaker 9: just don't know how it's actually going to turn out,
- 20:10Speaker 9: so concentration risk is definitely an issue. We're also considering
- 20:15Speaker 9: it and watching it on an index level. You know,
- 20:17Speaker 9: it's just probably a matter of weeks until SpaceX is
- 20:20Speaker 9: added to the Nasdaq one hundred. That's going to change things.
- 20:24Speaker 9: And then you know space or sorry the S and
- 20:27Speaker 9: P five hundred didn't change their rules to allow it,
- 20:29Speaker 9: you know, faster entry, but it's still you know, probably
- 20:33Speaker 9: a couple of years. It's not very long term that
- 20:35Speaker 9: it could be also added to the S and P
- 20:38Speaker 9: five hundred and then you know, sort of bump up
- 20:40Speaker 9: concentration risk. I mean, today its valuation is more than
- 20:44Speaker 9: two and two and a half about two trillion, a
- 20:48Speaker 9: little more than that. It's already the top six company
- 20:52Speaker 9: in the market.
- 20:54Speaker 1: Just like that.
- 20:55Speaker 2: Carmen Retail investors play a big role here. And they're
- 21:00Speaker 2: not seemingly afraid of concentration risk. They're kind of diving
- 21:04Speaker 2: headlong into it. Especially if you look at you know,
- 21:06Speaker 2: the popularity of single stock leverage ETFs as well. How
- 21:10Speaker 2: much of this is really you know, retail investors are
- 21:12Speaker 2: responding and generating a lot of the demand for all
- 21:15Speaker 2: this equity.
- 21:17Speaker 9: I mean, that's definitely a huge component. I think it
- 21:20Speaker 9: was one of the biggest days for retail buying in
- 21:22Speaker 9: the market if I was reading the data correctly on Friday.
- 21:26Speaker 9: On Friday, yes, And I mean we know that there
- 21:29Speaker 9: are so many like Musk evangelists, And the thing that
- 21:33Speaker 9: I think is most interesting there is if you think
- 21:34Speaker 9: of that cohort, they're really happy to buy and hold.
- 21:38Speaker 9: They're very long term investors, where I think sometimes retail
- 21:40Speaker 9: has sort of thought of as much more maybe like
- 21:44Speaker 9: in and out of stocks or adding more volatility, So
- 21:46Speaker 9: that that is really interesting. It's definitely a dynamic we're
- 21:49Speaker 9: going to watch going forward. On the flip side, though,
- 21:51Speaker 9: there was a lot of institutional investment here and that's
- 21:53Speaker 9: really the bulk of sort of like the.
- 21:55Speaker 4: Market support thirty seconds.
- 21:57Speaker 6: Do we have any sense of timing for anthropic or
- 22:00Speaker 6: open aiyes at the fall.
- 22:01Speaker 9: I guess they're definitely expected by the end of the
- 22:04Speaker 9: year and we'll see. I mean, it will be really
- 22:07Speaker 9: interesting to see how fast they might want to get
- 22:09Speaker 9: out in front of this market and kind of Yeah.
- 22:14Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,
- 22:19Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each
- 22:22Speaker 1: weekday ten am to noon Eastern on Bloomberg dot com,
- 22:26Speaker 1: the iHeartRadio app tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app.
- 22:30Speaker 1: You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube
- 22:33Speaker 1: and always on the Bloomberg terminal