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Tensions in the Taiwan Straight and Beyond | Silk and Steel · UK Column Radio

0:03
I. Have returning guest Shang Yi
0:09
all the way from Taiwan because couple things have happened
0:15
recently. There's a large Chinese naval
0:18
exercise around Taiwan and, you know, it's I wanted to get your
0:26
assessment, junior, you know, like also I wanted to know what
0:30
is kind of the reception within Taiwan Island itself.
0:36
And then we can also maybe address some people were saying,
0:40
you know, there's a lot of media spin recently regarding US
0:45
action toward Venezuela, the kidnapping of of Venezuelan
0:50
President Maduro. You know, many people are
0:52
saying, oh, this is such a humiliation for China that you
0:58
know, now it's a dumbass Bill Ackman, he put it a tweet.
1:04
He said now that China no longer has its hands on Venezuelan oil,
1:08
it will make so much will make it much harder for China to to
1:13
take action on Taiwan, which is which it just shows you, you
1:16
don't really need a high intelligence to be a billionaire
1:19
in United States. But let's talk about, you know,
1:24
like what is going on? Like how did people in Taiwan
1:29
saw this the the the latest military exercise?
1:34
People are just pretty numb to the situation because there's so
1:38
much, there's lack of internal cohesion over here in Taiwan.
1:43
This military drill was in part in response to a very
1:47
controversial arms deal that was passed between the US and the
1:54
authorities over here in Taiwan that was pushed by the DPP.
1:58
Now, the opposition isn't necessarily against arms
2:01
purchases, but it is against this sort of lack of
2:05
transparency. And I mean, OK, like Qingdo is
2:10
saying things like the CPC has a timeline of reunifying by 2027.
2:17
But you look at this arms deal, like a lot of the stuff doesn't
2:20
arrive to Taiwan until many years later.
2:22
So then it's like, if that is, if that is your excuse for the
2:24
arms deal, then why aren't you pushing for things to arrive,
2:27
you know, this year as opposed to, you know, way after 2027?
2:32
So it's very apparent that Nychingdo, who was extremely
2:35
unpopular over here in Taiwan, is doing this in an attempt to
2:39
Curry favour with the US authorities by paying more for
2:44
paying more protection money for ultimately no meaningful
2:49
protection. The greatest protection that we
2:50
can get is having better reconciliation with the Chinese
2:55
mainland. And so I think the mainland's
2:59
response, the PL as response with the encirclement of the
3:01
island, it's the same as the United, what is it?
3:04
the United Sharp Sword drills of 2024, which is a simulation of a
3:09
total blockade around the island.
3:12
If people are not familiar with Chinese history pertaining
3:17
especially history pertaining to China's Taiwan, the Kangxi
3:23
Emperor of the Qing Dynasty was able to reunify the two sides of
3:29
the Strait by doing exactly that.
3:33
A blockade, a naval blockade around Taiwan, reducing supplies
3:37
over here to the point where the rump, the rump regime, the Jung
3:41
regime had to surrender to the Qing authorities.
3:45
And this blockade, this, the simulation of the blockade is
3:50
the PLA. It's doing a proof of concept
3:52
saying look, if we wanted to, we could definitely exercise total
3:57
control around the island. We don't care about your
4:00
porcupine strategy, any of that. You're reliant on foreign
4:05
countries for energy. If we do a total blockade,
4:07
you're screwed within a few days, within a few weeks, and
4:10
there's no other choice but surrender.
4:12
So you might as well make the smart decision and stop treating
4:16
us like enemies and come to the table and keep business within
4:22
the family among ourselves. Is it is basically the message.
4:25
It's nothing. It's nothing too new.
4:26
But I think see a lot of those political commentators in the
4:31
West, I'm not, I'm not sure if they actually believe what they
4:33
say. I think half of them believe
4:34
what they say and the other half is just trying to.
4:37
It's just treating people like dumb asses and they're talking
4:40
out of their asses saying whatever they think.
4:42
It's the most clicks and the most views, whatever is most
4:45
sensationalist. And that does not really help
4:48
anyone in my opinion. What is your assessment?
4:53
Oh, no, I agree. I mean, it could be both.
4:54
They they could really be dumb asses and they also think their
4:57
audience are dumb asses. You know, you in Bill Ackman's
5:01
case, I think that's definitely the case.
5:05
And and, and also there's also a lot, there's a lot of grifters.
5:09
You know, a lot of these people who are posting about China and
5:12
Taiwan are like, you know, Palmer Luckey, the, the guy who
5:16
started the, the making drones for United States.
5:20
You know, the whole he, he was selling, he was selling the
5:23
Anduril Anduril drones to Taiwan and a hunt awards like
5:28
$1,000,000 a pop. You know, he's sold like around
5:33
300 Anduril drones to Taiwan and Taiwan had to spend like $300
5:38
million. And and his drones have been
5:41
proven pretty ineffective in Ukraine.
5:45
You know, the Ukrainians are now using their own own drones who,
5:49
who, who they're making using imported Chinese drone
5:53
components. That's why I joke on the, the
5:56
the on Twitter. I say, you know, Taiwan could
5:59
just save money directly source from mainland to make their own
6:02
Jones rather than spending like $1,000,000 a pop to buy Andrew
6:07
Jones from United States. But of course, as you say, this
6:09
is really not about contributing to quote unquote defence of
6:13
Taiwan. It's really about Curry in
6:15
favour with, you know, the, the US congressman.
6:19
Keep them happy. So no, it's being part it's part
6:23
of being being the client state of United States.
6:27
You just have to pay up. And and as you say, like many of
6:30
the weapons, you know, despite Taiwan have paid money upfront,
6:35
only usually get delivered decades after.
6:39
And they're, they're also buying like weapons that that probably
6:44
not going to be very useful. These are very expensive,
6:47
outdated weapon system. You know, Taiwan, I think they
6:50
just took delivery of some Abram tanks, which pay for a long time
6:56
back. And by the time you need Abram
7:00
tanks, it's a little bit too late.
7:04
See, in the Cross Strait conflict in in the Cross Strait
7:08
conflict in Amphibia, an amphibious landing by the PLA
7:13
would be the last chapter of a very long book.
7:16
So by the time that happens, you're already screwed and you
7:20
might as well. I mean, at that point, I'm not
7:22
even sure if people over here in Taiwan will fight.
7:24
Here's the thing. The people of Taiwan now, it
7:26
doesn't doesn't matter whether or not you're in denial.
7:29
We are Chinese, OK? The people over here are
7:32
Chinese. And there is quite a bit of
7:35
civilizational wisdom in Chinese culture, and Chinese people in
7:40
general tend to be pretty pragmatic.
7:44
And now specifically in Taiwan, the people here are not as brave
7:47
as the people of Ukraine. But what we lack in courage, we
7:50
have more pragmatism and intelligence, I must say.
7:57
I mean, even Tanzebian, the first DPP leader of Taiwan, who
8:01
actually tried to push Taiwan separatism, in an interview with
8:05
Tsalsao Kong, he said this is not a matter of how much you
8:08
love Taiwan. No matter how great our military
8:11
is, the objective reality is we cannot defeat the People's
8:15
Liberation Army. Even even even Tan Sapien is
8:20
saying that. But now you know what the
8:22
lighting the administration is doing.
8:24
What are they doing? Every family in Thai, every
8:27
household in Taiwan receive one of these little orange books.
8:33
No way. And they're telling us some.
8:38
When the crisis comes, yes. When the crisis comes and then
8:42
it's like the all peoples of Taiwan's the safety
8:45
instructions. Safety Guide.
8:48
Safety guide. Yeah.
8:50
And then it's like, you know what?
8:50
This. Reminds me of There's a There's
8:53
a game, a popular RPG game. It's American game actually fall
8:58
out and in fallout it's about the post post nuclear apocalypse
9:04
United States. You know, after you'd had the
9:06
nuclear exchange with China supposedly.
9:08
And and one of the running gig of the game is you run into all
9:13
these like safety guys. You know what to do in case of a
9:17
nuclear attack. This is what that reminds me of.
9:21
Oh, and and that has a slight Tinder signature.
9:24
Yeah. OK.
9:26
I'm trying This is like a mirror image I'm reading off the
9:28
screen. It says this is a Taiwan that we
9:30
love deeply. We are.
9:32
I can't. I can't read backwards.
9:35
We are. A we we we can enjoy freedom,
9:40
democracy and be the. Master.
9:43
Of our country. And this is the result of the
9:46
sacrifices of previous generations.
9:50
And that one is a Kansai. OK.
9:53
So whether it's natural disasters or no.
9:55
Matter. Natural disaster.
9:59
Extreme climate or or Chinese aggression.
10:03
See, he's not even seeing mainland aggression, he's seeing
10:05
Chinese aggression. So he's trying to frame it as
10:08
Taiwan and China versus Taiwan and the mainland, implying AS2
10:10
separate countries despite the laws of the very government he's
10:14
leading. But the challenge we never.
10:16
Stopped. Yeah, had never stopped and
10:21
that's a good. It's hard to read backwards,
10:23
man. This like mirror image.
10:25
It's a it, this is a time full of challenges, Yes.
10:29
Our safety is built upon resolute will for defence, Yeah.
10:40
And and yeah. And our determination to prepare
10:46
in the normal times you know to to be be prepared be prepared
10:51
more safe this this booklet will provide everyone with the safety
10:59
guide this. Is, yeah, yeah, basically.
11:02
It's like Biden. It's it's all a bunch of it's
11:06
all it's all a bunch of bullshit.
11:07
And then it's like, OK, what to prepare in your home or
11:09
whatever. But then it's also it also has
11:11
like parts saying like don't believe fake news.
11:14
Any voices saying that, saying that calling for surrender or
11:20
whatever is fake and that we must like defend to the very
11:23
last man, stuff like that. So it's some everyone's making
11:27
fun of this. I mean, no one's.
11:29
So you have to understand the same people in Western media
11:33
that are telling you Maduro is widely hated in Venezuela are
11:38
the same people telling you that this government in Taiwan, the
11:41
lacking the administration is widely popular when he is I I
11:46
think he's the least popular in my entire lifetime.
11:49
I was born during the the Dongwei era, right?
11:53
I wasn't alive during Zhangjingu, but Lee Dongwei
11:55
since they be a my Angel Tai England Nai Ching the been alive
11:58
for five litres Nai Ching the so far the least popular and it's
12:02
only his second year of leadership and his yeah, his
12:07
popularity and support is going down.
12:09
He doesn't have any domestic support, so he's trying to Curry
12:12
favour with his US bastards. Meanwhile, the KMT right now
12:16
under its new leadership of the new chairwoman Jung NI Wen, is
12:19
calling for a return to a more reconciliation and working
12:25
relationship with the Communist Party of China.
12:29
And I think this is the wise decision because you see, under
12:33
the, the KMT, under the leadership of Jiang Ji, he
12:37
Johnny, Johnny Chung, He's, he tried so hard or like Julie
12:42
Luhn, they, they tried so hard to be pro America, but they
12:45
still got hit with allegations of being ACBC puppet.
12:48
If that's the case, he might as well just work for closer
12:50
relationship with the ships, with the CPC.
12:52
Cause no matter what, given the political landscape of Taiwan
12:55
today, as long as you're KMT, you're always, no matter what
12:58
you do, you're still going to be seen as ACPC puppet.
13:02
Might as well become one. That's the that's the general
13:07
atmosphere surrounding. Everything.
13:11
And she says she's going to visit mainland next year.
13:13
Oh, oh, actually it will be this year.
13:15
She says she's going to be visiting mainland this year.
13:18
Yeah, yeah, I think she. Said it that last year so.
13:22
Yeah, yeah, yeah. I mean, she, it's some people
13:24
think it's some sort of unprecedented breakthrough, but
13:27
I think it's because in recent years Taiwan's been under DPP
13:30
leadership. So it's like kind of a distant
13:32
memory when the KMT and the CPC were a little bit more
13:35
reconciliatory. The I mean, during the My Angel
13:38
years, he met with the the leader of Taiwan, My Angel met
13:42
with President Xi Jinping in Singapore.
13:46
But I think that was poorly executed on his part.
13:48
Like, he did it when his support in Taiwan was at its lowest.
13:52
You don't make controversial moves like that when your
13:54
supporters already low. You do it when it's high.
13:56
He should have. He should have met Wu Jintao
13:58
when he was first elected and his popularity was, like, sky
14:01
high. But that's neither here nor
14:05
there. It's not something that we get
14:07
to decide. So yeah, I think what you want
14:11
to tie this with is Venezuela and what people here in Taiwan
14:15
are thinking. Well, I mean, because you know,
14:21
a lot of people were saying, oh, now, like, I mean, this usually
14:26
just Trump supporters that that that are saying, oh, this is
14:29
this is a big set back for what is this?
14:33
They even say this in English. Oh.
14:38
In the event of military invasion of Taiwan, any claim
14:40
that the government has surrendered or that nation has
14:43
been defeated is false. Oh.
14:50
Man except one like the the sambu yells like the three no's
14:54
and one must no I guess. Don't make, don't create fake
15:01
news, don't believe fake news, don't spread fake news and then
15:06
you must a Fact Check. Which is funny because the DPP
15:11
media never fact cheques. You have people like, you know,
15:14
for example, Bill Hackman, Bill Ackman, who, who says, oh, this
15:20
is this move by seizing Maduro, we really show China makes China
15:26
think twice about moving on to Taiwan, which is completely
15:31
ridiculous. And then there's also people in
15:33
the mainstream media saying, oh, you know, China is doing this
15:38
super aggressive move by carrying out naval exercise in
15:41
the Taiwan Strait in violation of, you know, regional peace,
15:46
stability, all that while they're saying that with a
15:49
straight face, while US just carry out this kidnapping of a
15:54
leader of a sovereign nation. So a lot of this is just noise,
15:59
but I still wanted to talk about it because first of all, China's
16:05
plan for Taiwan or whatever China is going to do with Taiwan
16:09
has nothing to do what United States is doing in the Western
16:14
Hemisphere. You know, China will carry out
16:17
its plans no matter what. And in fact, I think the whole
16:24
the, the the recent tightening of the cord down around Taiwan,
16:28
this is precipitated by Nancy Pelosi visit, you know, a few
16:34
years back, you know, and I remember also when Nancy Pelosi
16:38
visit Taiwan, people were also say, oh, this is such a
16:41
humiliation for China. You know they they failed to
16:44
stop Nancy Pelosi from landing. Even a bunch of these like,
16:48
resistance accounts on like Twitter were like sprigging out
16:51
about it. And I'm like, and then they're
16:53
like, why didn't why, why didn't China?
16:54
I'm so disappointed. Why didn't China shoot down the
16:56
plane? And it's like, OK, shooting down
16:58
the plane. That would have created an
16:59
international disaster. But what on the PLA ended up
17:02
doing using that as an excuse to tighten its military drills
17:05
around the island? It played perfectly into China's
17:08
hands. Like you have to realise on the,
17:11
the the Chinese government is much more farsighted than most
17:15
average people, most average Chinese people even, right?
17:19
So I, I, I don't know, it's also this understanding, like why do
17:23
you assume that the, the, the, the PL as plans, Beijing's plans
17:27
for Taiwan is a military operation and the kidnapping of
17:32
a leader or anything like that forever since ever since the 19
17:37
fifty 50s and 60s, like the CP CS pivoted towards, you know,
17:42
liberating Taiwan to coming up with a peaceful negotiation.
17:46
I guess in the 1950s it was still like, OK, the civil war
17:49
hasn't hasn't completed yet. So like Taiwan is a final
17:53
frontier that we must enter. But then after things
17:56
stabilised, it's like, OK, we can respect the fact that Taiwan
17:59
is under is still under separate administration.
18:03
As long as everybody acknowledges that we are all
18:05
Chinese, we are one country. This is this is a conflict
18:09
between two rival factions within the same country.
18:12
If we keep it within the family, it's all good.
18:14
We can solve it out on our own accord without foreign
18:17
interference, right? So why do people assume that the
18:21
PLA is bloodthirsty and wants to launch an attack on Taiwan?
18:25
If it wanted to, it would have done so a long time ago.
18:28
But The thing is, that's messy and it doesn't, it doesn't
18:31
really benefit anybody. Look, the CPC, it studies
18:36
history a lot. It studied what the, the, the,
18:40
all of the things, all the challenges that the KMT faced
18:43
when they took Taiwan back from 50 years of Japanese rule and
18:49
the lack of tactfulness that the KNT exercised during the first
18:54
few years specifically, especially culminating in the
18:58
228 incident in 1947. These are all things that the
19:01
CPC would like to avoid. And you know how you don't avoid
19:05
them is if you are overly militarily aggressive and want
19:10
to solve things right now, see, like, like to Beijing, it's
19:16
like, OK, the, the writing is on the wall decades ago that it's
19:20
an inevitability that Taiwan will be reunified with the rest
19:26
of China. Taiwan has already been returned
19:28
to China in 1945. It's just right now it's under
19:31
an internal division. So I don't understand the I, I,
19:34
I really don't understand why people, even pro China
19:37
Westerners assume that, you know, Beijing is going to make a
19:42
move like that or wants to make a move like that.
19:45
Military force ever since, especially ever since the thumb
19:48
shopping era has been framed as a last resort.
19:52
Is this something that people in the West have just missed?
19:54
Like even pro China people have missed?
19:56
Is this something that they don't understand?
19:58
I I think there's just such a black hole of ignorance about
20:02
China in the West in general. I mean, no matter which side of
20:07
spectrum you're on, you just. Not just not many people really
20:11
know what's going on in in in China across the Taiwan Strait.
20:15
This is why I have you on my show.
20:17
And you know, and even like they, I saw people talking
20:21
about, oh, and China could then, you know, you know, like their
20:26
people say, Oh, now, now if you, you have, you have people, I
20:30
think with Mehdi Hassan, you say, oh, if China now go kidnaps
20:34
the, captures the, the, the, the leader of Taiwan, now the US
20:38
wouldn't be able to say anything because US is doing the same
20:41
thing. But like, first of all, why
20:43
would let, let, let's set aside the fact that Venezuela is a
20:48
sovereign nation. Taiwan is not let.
20:50
Let's set that aside for a moment.
20:52
But why would China even need to capture Lai Qingdu?
20:57
It's like Lai Qingdu is is useless.
21:01
He's like a a, a, a leader with low popularity in Taiwan.
21:05
As you say. Exactly what?
21:07
What's the point? What, what, what?
21:08
China's ultimate goal is to integrate Taiwan, right?
21:13
Capturing just just simply capturing Lai Qingdu does
21:17
minimal. And I think capturing La Qingdu
21:20
would increase his popularity. Yeah, probably.
21:27
I think there's a delay between us, that's why it sounds like
21:30
I'm talking over you. It's fine.
21:33
It's my Internet. I think it's either my Internet.
21:36
I don't think it's your Internet.
21:38
It's your third role, Internet. It's.
21:40
Better. So, yeah, it's it is China has a
21:49
very patient plans for Taiwan. You know, like there's a lot of
21:53
people do not understand the Chinese strategic patience.
21:56
This is why I brought the example of Nancy Pelosi, you
22:00
know, back at the time of Nancy Pelosi's visit, as you say, like
22:04
a lot of people say, oh, China totally got humiliated by
22:08
allowing her to land and and and and and and by not doing
22:11
anything. And now Nancy Pelosi's plane was
22:16
escorted by US Air Force fighters, right?
22:20
I mean, if shooting her plan, shooting down her plane is going
22:23
to lead to a war immediately. But as you say, China that would
22:29
have allowed China to do is then after they waited for Nancy
22:34
Pelosi to leave and then started naval exercise around Taiwan in
22:39
a scale that have that was, you know, surpassed any previous
22:43
exercise in in Taiwan Strait. And now the, the, the, the, the
22:48
frequency of the exercise is more and more.
22:51
And, and you know, if this had happened without Nancy Pelosi's
22:56
visit, like the United States would have throw a shit fit.
23:00
And you know, you know, as, as well as all the talking heads in
23:03
the Western media will be in the uproar.
23:06
But because we're expecting China to do something drastic.
23:10
And then the real then at the end, China just did the naval
23:13
exercise. So, so, so in the end, I
23:16
thought, OK, no, no, World War three, it's just an exercise.
23:20
But now China gets to exercise sovereignty around the waters,
23:24
around Taiwan and and it does that anytime you wants to.
23:28
That's what the latest exercise show.
23:31
But people don't appreciate that because I think people are so
23:36
used to how United States would do things, right?
23:39
So they will assume that's what China should do to counter
23:43
United States to do what exactly what United States would do,
23:46
which is. You know what?
23:49
Really. You know what?
23:50
Really. Upsets me about these people,
23:52
especially the ones in the West to say they are pro China.
23:54
The what? When they frame things like this
24:00
they are fundamentally saying they don't view the people of
24:03
Taiwan as Chinese. Right.
24:07
And if you don't view the people of Taiwan as Chinese, even if
24:10
you if you say you are for Chinese reunification, you're
24:14
objectively citing with the Taiwan separatist, you are
24:18
objectively sowing division between the two sides of the
24:22
Taiwan Strait because you want you, you want the People's
24:27
Liberation Army to attack Taiwan and bomb Taiwan.
24:30
They're going to, if they do that, it's Chinese people
24:34
killing Chinese people. And that's what advocates of
24:38
Chinese reunification on both sides of the Taiwan Strait want
24:42
to avoid. Now, the PLA hasn't completely
24:45
ruled out the use of military force because there's no telling
24:49
what, you know, separatists or the US might do in the region.
24:53
But that doesn't mean that this is the preferred method of
24:56
resolving this, this decades long unsettled business within,
25:03
within our country, right? And also the whole thing you
25:08
have people saying, oh, Venezuela happened, so China, do
25:11
your thing with Taiwan. And to me that is a very
25:13
disgusting view of China's internal affairs.
25:16
You know what you are, You are not Chinese.
25:19
You are. It's just not your place to
25:21
dictate, man. It's the the days of it.
25:23
I don't care if you say you are pro or anti China.
25:26
The days of foreigners pointing their fingers at us, telling us
25:30
how to run our business is over. This is no longer the late Qing
25:34
dynasty or the early Republican period.
25:37
This is a new China. The Chinese people have stood
25:40
up. We fought, we defended our
25:43
sovereignty in Korea, you know, pushing the Americans back to
25:47
the 38th parallel when MacArthur was trying to make advances into
25:54
China across the Yalu River, and even biochemical weapons were
25:58
dropped within China on the frontier regions.
26:01
The days in, in the words of Marshall Peng Dohuai, the days
26:04
of Westerners telling China what to do by setting up a few
26:08
gunboats on our coast are over. And this applies even to these
26:14
so called resistance people in the West.
26:15
I'm sick of, sick of these people telling, telling Chinese
26:18
people what we should and shouldn't do within, within our
26:21
own country, you know? Not exactly.
26:24
I mean, those, those, those so called resistance people or pro
26:28
multiplearity people, they actually don't care about China
26:32
or the Chinese people because to do like a war between on the
26:38
Taiwan Strait will have big consequences.
26:42
You know that that will be mostly bare by the Chinese
26:45
people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait.
26:47
You will be the Chinese people that's doing the dying by by
26:50
making rhetoric like, oh, China, why don't you use this
26:53
opportunity to go go after Taiwan?
26:56
What they're saying, they really don't care about China or
27:00
people. So Chinese people, they just
27:02
want to use China as a tool, as a leverage against their big
27:06
great Satan, right? They just want OK, we just want
27:09
someone to oppose United States. I don't care if you, you know
27:12
you, if you bleed or die, I just want you to do it for me because
27:16
I'm power hold. On hold on.
27:17
Hold on. Hold on, hold on.
27:30
Sorry, my grandma was having No, my grandma, grandma was having
27:33
complications with her little wireless phone.
27:36
Like it was ringing the bass and she's like freaking out because
27:39
it's an unfamiliar sound. Yeah.
27:41
OK, Everything OK. Now, Yeah, yeah, everything,
27:44
everything is good, yeah. Yeah, I mean, I mean, this is
27:49
all about their own little personal ego trips.
27:53
Like they they because they some themselves feel impotent to stop
27:57
the United States. They're like, oh, China, do it
28:00
for me. And if you don't do it, China,
28:03
you're a coward. It's like, you know what it is.
28:05
Look what? It's these people.
28:08
They grew up believing in the fact that believing in the idea
28:12
that America's the leader of the free world and it's on the right
28:15
side of history. It's fighting for justice.
28:17
And then they became disillusioned with, you know,
28:21
this rhetoric. They saw the things that America
28:23
was doing. So now there is a void in their
28:26
worldview and they want something else.
28:29
First there was a Soviet Union, and then there was China to fill
28:32
this void, right? OK.
28:34
And then the Soviet Union collapsed, and now they want
28:37
China to fill the void of the Soviet Union.
28:38
But I'm sorry, China is not the Soviet Union.
28:41
The Soviet Union, yes, there were many successes.
28:43
They did a lot of great things. They also messed up a lot, which
28:46
is why they are not here today. If they were that great, they'd
28:49
still be here today, is what I'm saying.
28:51
Why should China follow in the footsteps of something that
28:54
ultimately failed? Right?
28:57
There were many successes. I don't, I don't deny that.
29:00
But the fact that they're not here anymore says that there
29:03
were things that were fundamentally messed up about
29:05
them. And you, yes, you can blame oh,
29:06
but it's because of Western imperialists that did this.
29:09
OK, but if they were that great, why couldn't they fight off that
29:12
influence and stay alive? If they were that great, why,
29:16
why are they not around anymore? And then they would also say
29:19
things like, oh, but see, China's not doing enough,
29:22
whereas the Soviet Union did this, this, this and this.
29:25
And it's like, OK, so are you going to pretend that the Soviet
29:29
Union was above real politics? You want to look at the times
29:33
the Soviet Unions like, screwed over China and disregarded
29:36
Chinese sovereignty? Look at the way Outer Mongolia
29:39
was carved. See, I'm not even upset at this.
29:42
The fact of the matter is, China, we were too weak to do
29:44
anything about it. When you're weak, there's
29:45
nothing you can do. And from the Soviet perspective,
29:48
it made sense in their interests to carve out out of Mongolia as
29:52
a buffer state. And then they were like OK hey
29:55
Japanese people, if you recognise an independent
29:57
Mongolia, we will recognise your puppet state of Manchuko.
30:03
I mean isn't is that not real politics?
30:06
Where what? What about their solid, their
30:08
international solidarity with the Chinese people who were
30:10
being invaded by the Japanese and being carved up by them and
30:13
had the northeast carved up into a puppet state of so called
30:16
Manchuria? Huh.
30:18
And I'm not saying this because I'm mad at them.
30:20
I'm just saying what's up with these double standards?
30:22
It's like these Western like it's it's just it's just
30:26
unresolved daddy issues projected on the politics is my
30:29
opinion. You not exactly it is, but but
30:34
you, you are also assuming a lot.
30:35
You, you assume they, they know all these history.
30:38
You know, like I, I, I can guarantee you it was 90%
30:43
uncertainty. They have no idea what you just
30:46
talk about. You know, This is why I have to
30:49
have this podcast try to educate people, try to bring them just
30:54
basic facts, you know, and, and, and, and with some historical
30:58
perspective. Yeah.
31:01
I mean, I, I understand why people would be upset because
31:04
United States is on rampage and it seems it's unchecked.
31:08
But look, man, the, the, the, the, the, the way that they
31:13
carry out their frustration. Like, why is, how is this
31:18
China's fault? You know, like you should be
31:22
blaming United States. You know, China is doing its
31:26
best. It's, it's, it's, you know, it's
31:28
so it's, it has condemned US actions.
31:31
But if even if you I don't know what they expect, you know, even
31:36
today China still lacks a power projection capability that way
31:43
the United States military has because US has military base all
31:47
around the world and there is no Chinese military base in Latin
31:52
America. There's and and, and like even
31:55
even if China wants to do an intervention in Venezuela, China
32:00
lacks the power projection and, and, and, and you really want
32:05
unite China be the mirror image of United States to have
32:08
military base all around the world.
32:10
I mean, that's one of the thing that distinguish China from
32:13
United States. Exactly.
32:15
China's for do not have a interventionist foreign policy.
32:18
And, and, and, but but a lot of people seems can't seem to
32:23
accept that. It seems like, OK, you have to
32:26
be. If you're powerful, you have to
32:28
act as mere image of United States.
32:30
No, no, no, that's not the case at all.
32:33
Do they do they think that during the Korean War the US was
32:36
dispatching troops by sending sending ships across the Pacific
32:40
everyday? No, they were operating out of
32:43
Japan. That's where MacArthur's base
32:44
was. Yeah, and also in case of Japan
32:51
and I, in case of Korea and Vietnam, China did intervene
32:55
because those countries are on the border of China.
32:59
You know, China could just send over supplies, over the
33:02
railroad, over roads. This is, this is like China now
33:07
face, you know, if they want to do something in Venezuela, they
33:11
face the, the, the, the dilemma called the, the tyranny of
33:15
distances. I mean, South America is
33:17
literally one of the places farthest away from China.
33:22
I I don't think there's any direct flight from China to to
33:26
to South America at this point because it's too far.
33:29
Vietnam War on China's border. So China had the incentive to
33:35
intervene because it wasn't just about a good feelings or
33:39
whatever it was about, it was a matter of national security,
33:42
whereas Latin America is so far away, you don't think?
33:44
United States, it's the mainland United States is closer to China
33:48
than South America. You know, if, if China, if China
33:52
has the capability to deter United States in Caribbean, that
33:56
would have meant that China has the capability to deter United
34:01
States from the coast of California.
34:03
I mean, to put that into perspective, because California
34:07
is closer to China than Venezuela is.
34:11
And, and, and so, so there's real constraint, this physical
34:16
geographic constraint. And you know what I realised?
34:20
I think about these people is they have, they're very
34:22
ideological. But then when it comes to
34:24
military affairs, military affairs have are are are still
34:29
grounded in the objective reality.
34:31
Yes, you can make the argument that like a people whose will is
34:35
unbreakable cannot be defeated, but there are limits to that
34:40
there. There's limits to that.
34:41
I mean that that that was even though the US was far better
34:47
equipped than the Chinese and Korean soldiers during the
34:50
Korean War, there were still advantages on the Chinese and
34:53
Korean sides, which is why the Chinese people's volunteers were
34:56
able to push U.S. forces back to the 38th parallel more or less,
35:02
and wear them out to the point where they asked for and
35:06
Armistice. The thing about these people
35:08
that are just so ideological that they just forget about the
35:11
objective realities of politics, of the economy and the military
35:17
is I bet if you tell these people that Mongolia has a Navy,
35:20
they'll believe you. I think Mongolia did have a Navy
35:24
at one point. They have a lake.
35:25
They have a like a lake near the border with Russia.
35:30
They have a lake. So I think they, there is a
35:33
Mongolian Navy at some point consist of 1 ferry boat.
35:37
I buy. I, I know what you're saying.
35:39
I mean, most of these people are just venting their own personal
35:43
frustration because they they somehow they see this
35:47
geopolitics as some kind of, you know, personal drama.
35:52
And and they're projecting their own own personal frustration
35:56
onto, you know, you know, the inability, their own own
36:01
inability to change the policy of United States that no, that,
36:05
that project that to others. Yeah, Yeah.
36:08
I think we spend enough time talking.
36:10
About yeah, yeah, yeah, DPP on the one hand is like kind of
36:13
saying that this is a victory for democracy in Venezuela, but
36:17
at the same time, it's like trying to up its defences just
36:20
in case Beijing takes inspiration from this operation.
36:25
So that's really funny because on.
36:27
Because how can two of these facts be true at the same time
36:31
when it's clearly just a violation of sovereignty?
36:34
What is your crystal ball like? Like, she does still have many
36:38
years to go right on his as the president of Taiwan. 2.
36:46
Yeah, 2 two more years, you know what do you think the opposition
36:52
have a serious could present a serious challenge to to the DPP
36:57
rule, you know, after the, the, the after at the next election.
37:04
Well, the immediate next elections this year with the
37:06
mayoral elections and the county magistrate elections.
37:12
And because DPPS widely unpopular right now, there's a
37:16
chance that the cities of Thailand and Kaushal, which are
37:20
traditionally DPP strongholds, will flip towards the KMT.
37:25
See, the last election in 2024 saw ADPP victory because the
37:31
opposition, which is split between the KMT and the new
37:34
third party, the TPP, the Taiwan People's Party, were split.
37:38
But ever since that split, and because the two of them have
37:41
been attacked as a single unit by the DPP, their unity is much
37:46
better than ever. And right now, I think there is
37:49
a mutual understanding between these two parties where it's
37:52
like, OK, we are at an advantage in this city, so you will throw
37:59
support behind us. And then in this other city
38:02
where you are at the advantage, we will throw support behind you
38:05
when we won't try to take away from our votes.
38:08
There is that sort of on symbiotic relationship between
38:10
the KMT and the TP that's never been seen before.
38:15
And the thing about the TP is I'd say more than half of their
38:19
supporters are former DPP. They appeal to those types of
38:23
people, whereas the DPP is just a bunch of like boomers and
38:28
millennials that were always DPP supporters and are very stubborn
38:33
about it. So there is much more
38:34
flexibility in the opposition right now that's made up of, you
38:37
know, old school KMT like this lukewarm KMT, as well as former
38:42
DPP when it comes to appealing to the masses.
38:46
And if Tainan and Gaulshan flip blue this year then it's a very
38:51
bad sign for the DPP. Now there's no telling what will
38:55
happen within the next two years, but my prediction is
38:58
things will go very bad that Naqingdao will suffer from a
39:02
humiliating defeat in 2028. There is little chance I I can't
39:07
see him being re elected unless something totally unforeseen
39:14
happens and the unity between the KMT and the TPP is utterly
39:18
destroyed. Yeah, I mean, he, he, he himself
39:25
leching the only guy elected with a 40% of the votes.
39:29
And then he was only because the split opposition that allow him
39:34
to gain a plurality of the votes and became elected the leader.
39:38
So yeah, we'll see what happens. Well, but the Internet is so
39:43
bad, so let's just wrap it up. So thank.
39:46
Thank you. Is there is there any other
39:48
topic you would like to discuss? Oh, I just got a very exciting
39:53
announcement to make, which is I've hinted at this for a very
39:56
long time, but I am now in the North Korea travel industry.
40:03
I'm now working with a company called Ted on Tours.
40:06
It is a newcomer in the industry and as North Korea.
40:11
North Korea tourism was shut down in 2020 in response to
40:14
COVID. And there's been a few false
40:16
starts, but it hasn't fully reopened the tourism yet.
40:19
Right now, only Russians can get in.
40:22
But we at Teton Tours have secured a contract with the
40:25
local Korean tour operators in the DPRK.
40:29
And as soon as tourism is back in action, we are ready to go.
40:35
So anybody that wants to go to North Korea that's not from a
40:40
country that bans you from going, just hit me up.
40:43
You can look us up on Instagram at Ted Ong Tours.
40:47
That's TAEDONG Tours. And if you just follow me on
40:53
socials, you'll see links to it. I'll, I'll mention it.
40:55
Yeah, we're a newcomer. So please, please, please
40:57
support us, help spread word. And we might not be the the
41:02
oldest in the game, but I do believe we are the most
41:05
knowledgeable, the most culturally sensitive, the most
41:08
culturally in tune with the Koreans, and overall the most
41:12
based. So that's why I've been hanging
41:17
around the China's northeast so long in these past few months.
41:22
I know these trips might seem random, like, why am I going to
41:26
northeastern China so much? Well, now you know, because
41:28
what's right next to the northeast?
41:33
So you, you, you by your estimation, you think that the
41:38
opening of of North Korea for tourism will come probably soon,
41:42
maybe even this year? I don't want to say anything
41:47
about this because until there is official confirmation,
41:50
everything is just speculation. I have reason to believe that
41:54
it's this year, but I can't promise anything because there's
41:57
so many factors, so many moving parts.
41:59
I feel that like if I say anything like for certain, the
42:03
opposite is going to happen. So I'm just going to.
42:05
Yeah, but follow us. Go to our website, Ted on
42:10
tours.com, there's a newsletter you can subscribe to.
42:13
If you subscribe to our newsletter as soon as we receive
42:15
confirmation from the Koreans that the DPRK is reopening to
42:18
tourism, you will be among the first to find out.
42:23
Good. Good call.
42:24
Good call. What?
42:28
There's only two countries that that bans travel to North Korea,
42:31
right? United States and South Korea.
42:33
Is that correct? 33, What's this?
42:35
Malaysia. Is it Malaysia, Sir?
42:37
Yeah, yeah. OK.
42:40
So you, you, you do not hold, if you hold a passport, you know,
42:45
that's none other than those three countries.
42:48
Or if you do have those 3 country passport but you have if
42:50
you have additional passports then you can go.
42:54
It depends. It depends.
42:56
For South Koreans, the ban comes from South Korea too and as long
43:00
as you are a South Korean citizen, you are still on the
43:04
hook. So if you go to North Korea on
43:06
or now, now the North Koreans don't let S Koreans go.
43:08
In the past it was just South Korea doesn't let its citizens
43:10
go, but now the relations are bad.
43:12
So in our contract it's literally says we do not accept
43:17
guests holding on the South Korean passport.
43:19
And then the Korean version of the contract, it says Quele
43:22
Hanguk, Quele Hangu. They don't say Nam chosen
43:26
anymore. They say Quele Hangu so puppet
43:31
Korea so and then Malaysia doesn't allow for dual
43:36
citizenship so you can't. Yeah, if you're Malaysian you
43:38
can't go. the US travel ban however, it's a ban on the US
43:42
passport. It's not a ban on the US
43:45
citizen. So if you are AUS citizen but
43:47
you have a Canadian passport then you can still go.
43:49
That's fair. But please do your own research
43:53
before making any decision to book any tours because I am not
43:58
a, a legal advisor. This is, these are just the
44:02
laws. We want everybody to do their
44:04
own research and we take everybody's safety very
44:09
seriously. And I'm sorry, but if you only
44:11
have AUS passport, we will not help you facilitate, we will not
44:15
help facilitate any violation of this travel ban for your own
44:19
safety as well As for our own as well.
44:21
We don't want you going back to the United States and just, you
44:25
know, dealing with things that you probably do not want to deal
44:29
with. And we certainly don't want to
44:31
deal with any potential fallout that results from that.
44:34
Sort of. Yeah.
44:36
We can only hope for the best. The the travel ban is set to
44:39
expire every year. The the reason why it keeps on
44:43
being in place is because so far, ever since 2017, it's been
44:47
renewed every year. But as long as there's some sort
44:50
of diplomatic breakthrough man between Washington and
44:53
Pyongyang, I can see the travel ban just being just expiring on
44:57
its own. And before we know, and I think
44:59
within the next decade, hopefully Americans can start
45:02
visiting the DPRK again. That's some that's my hope.
45:06
It's I think it's good for everybody.
45:07
It's good for obviously good for business.
45:09
But I think it's just good for building bridges and giving
45:13
Americans the opportunity to see North Korea beyond the headlines
45:16
and an opportunity for the people of the DPRK to see
45:21
Americans as, you know, beyond the beyond their headlines as
45:25
well beyond the political rhetoric.
45:28
Because in theory, they know that, OK, the American people
45:31
and the American government are different.
45:32
But when you don't have contact with regular American people,
45:36
it's easy to forget that part. So that's just, yeah, that's
45:40
kind of our MO just becoming serving as a cultural bridge
45:45
between. Yeah.
45:46
All right, let's. OK, we can, we can wrap it up
45:51
here. Thank you Shang Yi for making
45:54
the time to speak to us on the issue of Taiwan and.
45:59
Thank you very much for having me on again for.
46:01
Tuning in. Thank you all.
46:03
Anytime, anytime. You always provide a valuable
46:06
perspective. And for everyone listening,
46:10
thank you for tuning in. Until next time.
46:13
Bye bye.