Latest / Career Skills with Fexingo: Hard Skills, Soft Skills, and Future-Proofing Your Career / How Skill Deserts Make You More Valuable Than Experts
Transcript
- Lucas: So here's a number that's been stuck in my head. In 2015, the average annual salary for a COBOL programmer in the US was around $120,000. That's not the shocking part. What got me is that the number of active COBOL developers was shrinking by about 5 percent a year, while demand was actually increasing because banks and government agencies were still running core systems on mainframes. Luna: That's the classic supply-demand mismatch we always talk about, but I think there's something deeper here. Those COBOL programmers weren't just well-paid. They were irreplaceable. Lucas: Exactly. And that's the core idea I want to drill into today: skill deserts. Not skills that are hard to learn, but skills that are genuinely unpopular or unfashionable, yet still critically needed. The desert isn't about difficulty. It's about scarcity. And in many cases, the scarcity is self-inflicted because everyone flocks to the shiny new thing. Luna: So you're saying the next career moat might not be AI or blockchain or whatever the hot skill of the month is, but something like Fortran or an obscure regulatory compliance framework? Lucas: Precisely. Let me give you a concrete example from outside tech. The Bureau of Labor Statistics projects that the US will need about 80,000 new actuaries by 2030, but the pipeline of students passing the exams is barely keeping pace. Actuarial science isn't glamorous. Most people don't even know what it is. Yet the median salary is well over $110,000, and job growth is solid. Luna: And it's not just about salary. It's about leverage. When you're one of few people who can do something, you get to pick your projects, you get more job security, and you're harder to replace. Lucas: Right. Meanwhile, the skills everyone rushes to learn, like generic digital marketing or basic Python scripting, often end up as commodities. The supply swells, wages stagnate, and the barrier to entry drops. It's the exact opposite of a skill desert. Luna: So how do we identify a skill desert before it's too late? Because obviously if it's already well-known that COBOL programmers earn a premium, the window might have closed. Lucas: Great question. I think there are three signals. First, look for aging infrastructure. COBOL is a textbook case. The core systems at the largest banks were built in the 70s and 80s, and they're still running. Second, look for regulatory requirements that create captive demand. Think Sarbanes-Oxley compliance, GDPR, or the upcoming SEC climate disclosure rules. Companies have to comply, and they need people who understand the specifics. Luna: And the third signal? Lucas: Look for skills that are notoriously boring or undervalued in pop culture. Technical writing, for example. Everyone wants to be a developer or a product manager, but who wants to document APIs? Yet good technical writers at companies like AWS or Google can earn well over six figures because the demand is huge and the talent pool is shallow. Luna: That's a great point. I remember reading that the average tenure of a technical writer at a big tech company is only about 18 months, because they get burned out or move into other roles. So there's constant turnover. Lucas: Exactly. And that turnover creates a persistent skill desert. Now, there's a nuance here. Not every obscure skill is worth chasing. Some are dying out for good reason. The key is to find a skill that's both scarce and sticky — meaning it's likely to stay in demand for at least another decade. Luna: How do you evaluate stickiness? I imagine some skills, like COBOL, have a limited shelf life because eventually those systems will be replaced. Lucas: That's the risk. But the timeline matters. The largest banks have been saying they'll migrate off mainframes for 20 years. It's happening, but slowly. A COBOL developer who started in 2010 still had a good 15-year run of premium wages. So you don't need the skill to last forever. You just need it to last long enough for you to build a career phase around it. Luna: So it's about timing the entry and the exit. You go in when the desert is dry, you ride the scarcity premium, and you plan your pivot before the oasis dries up. Lucas: That's exactly the framework. And I think there's a corollary for people early in their career. The conventional advice is to build a broad foundation and then specialize. But what if instead you started with a deep specialization in a skill desert, then broadened out later? Your reputation as the go-to person for that niche gives you credibility that carries over. Luna: That's a contrarian play. Most career coaches say don't pigeonhole yourself. But I see the logic. If you're the only person in your company who really understands the legacy billing system, you're not just valuable. You're indispensable. Lucas: And that indispensability gives you leverage to negotiate for interesting projects, for mentorship, for a path to learn new skills. It's a platform, not a cage. Luna: Let me push back a little though. Isn't there a danger that you become so specialized that you're unhireable outside that narrow domain? I've seen people who spent 10 years on a proprietary system that got decommissioned, and they struggled to find their next role. Lucas: That's the flip side, and it's real. The antidote is to maintain what I call a 'skill bridge' — a parallel skill that connects your desert skill to a broader market. For a COBOL programmer, that might be learning modern integration tools or cloud migration patterns. That way, when the mainframe finally shuts down, you're not starting from zero. Luna: So you're not betting the farm on the desert. You're planting one flag there and another in a more fertile area. Lucas: Exactly. And I think this applies even in fast-moving fields like AI. Everyone is learning how to fine-tune large language models. That's getting commoditized quickly. But who knows the arcane details of model interpretability, or how to deploy models in highly regulated industries like healthcare? Those are mini deserts. Luna: That makes sense. I've noticed that in cybersecurity, the hot area is always the latest threat, but the real skill desert is often in legacy system security — like protecting old SCADA systems in power plants. That's not glamorous, but it's critical. Lucas: Great example. And that connects to one last point I want to make. Skill deserts often exist at the intersection of two domains. The person who understands both insurance underwriting and data engineering is rare. The person who knows both tax law and software development is even rarer. Those intersections are where you can create a desert that's almost impossible to compete against. Luna: So it's not just about picking an unfashionable skill, but about combining two unfashionable skills? Or one unfashionable and one fashionable? Lucas: The combination is often more valuable than either one alone, especially if the combination is itself unfashionable. But even pairing a desert skill with a popular one can work. Think of a product manager who also understands statistical process control. That's a unique blend. Luna: Okay, I'm sold on the idea. But a listener might say, 'Great, but where do I start? I'm in a generic role and I don't see any desert around me.' Lucas: I'd say start by mapping your organization's pain points. What systems or processes do people complain about constantly? What knowledge is held by one person who's about to retire? Those are living skill deserts. Then ask yourself: could I learn that thing? Could I become the backup? That's your entry point. Luna: And if there's no obvious desert in your current workplace, look at industry reports. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has detailed projections. Look for occupations with slow growth in supply but steady demand. Or look at trade publications for your industry and see what skills are being mentioned as 'hard to find.' Lucas: One more resource: job posting data. Sites like Burning Glass or even LinkedIn's talent insights show how long it takes to fill certain roles. If the time to fill is over 60 days, there's probably a skill desert. And the salary is often higher to compensate. Luna: So the playbook is: identify the desert, learn the skill deeply, build a bridge to something broader, and then ride the scarcity wave while planning your exit. Lucas: That's the framework. And I want to be clear: I'm not saying everyone should abandon the hot skills. But if you're in a field where you're competing with thousands of equally qualified people, a skill desert might be the only path to genuine leverage. Luna: It's a counterintuitive strategy, but it's also one of the few that actually works in a market that's getting more efficient every year. And speaking of things that work — I think it's worth mentioning how we keep this show going. Lucas: Yeah, this is actually a good moment. We don't run ads, and we never will. The show is funded entirely by listeners who chip in a few bucks a month through Buy Me a Coffee dot com slash fexingo. It's a small group, but it's what lets us do deep-dive episodes like this without chasing clicks or sponsors. Luna: And honestly, it's freeing. We can talk about skill deserts without having to pitch you a course or a certification. So if you've gotten value from the show, that's the way to keep it going. No pressure, just the option. Lucas: Right. And back to the topic — I think the key takeaway is that the most valuable skills aren't always the ones on the cover of magazines. They're often the ones hiding in plain sight, ignored by the crowd. So look around, find the desert, and own it. Luna: And if you already have a skill desert story, we'd love to hear it. Drop us a note. In the meantime, start scanning your workplace for that one thing everyone dreads but nobody learns. That might be your next career move. Lucas: Exactly. Thanks for listening, and we'll talk again next time.