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The Silver Squeeze Goes Nuclear - Craig Hemke #6353 · Financial Survival Network

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Speaker 1: But silver sat there and sat there. Gold broke out
0:03
Speaker 1: almost two years ago, made new all time highs and
0:06
Speaker 1: is now doubled in price, where silver just only made
0:09
Speaker 1: new all time highs back in October. Yeah, so it's
0:12
Speaker 1: moving to catch up. The force that applied, you know,
0:15
Speaker 1: just sits there, doesn't go anywhere. Then all of a sudden,
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Speaker 1: it starts to move up, and volume picks up, and
0:19
Speaker 1: these CTA trading funds, other traders and the like start
0:24
Speaker 1: to jump on, and it creates its own momentum that
0:27
Speaker 1: took it up to forty eight. That the old all
0:29
Speaker 1: time highs that blasted it through to fifty four. It
0:32
Speaker 1: then pulled back, held forty eight of support, and now
0:35
Speaker 1: it's blasted through again. Ultimately, I think Carrie, it does
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Speaker 1: a gold you know where Golden took about eighteen months
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Speaker 1: for it to double in price after it made new
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Speaker 1: all time highs in March of twenty four. For your silver,
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Speaker 1: it's not going to take eighteen months, but it's following
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Speaker 1: that same path.
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Speaker 3: Than ever, and welcome. You aren't listening to and watching
1:21
Speaker 3: the Financial Survival Network. I'm your host, Carrie lutz Man.
1:26
Speaker 3: I am floating on air silver sixty years of suppression.
1:31
Speaker 3: Craigkamke is with us Craig sixty years because I wrote
1:36
Speaker 3: an article recently about the demonetization of silver in nineteen
1:40
Speaker 3: sixty five. What LBJ did, the fact that the funniest
1:46
Speaker 3: thing about it, Craig, was that they created the Kennedy
1:49
Speaker 3: half dollar, and at the same time they pulled silver
1:53
Speaker 3: out of the coinage. However, they couldn't pull it all
1:58
Speaker 3: out of the Kennedy half dollar because then it would
2:01
Speaker 3: have cheapened Kennedy's image in the eyes of the public.
2:06
Speaker 3: So what they did was they made it forty percent silver,
2:10
Speaker 3: the minimum amount they could use, so it didn't look
2:13
Speaker 3: like a Johnson slug, as our good friend David Morgan
2:17
Speaker 3: calls them.
2:18
Speaker 4: And you know.
2:19
Speaker 3: That lasted for like four years. But so the first ones,
2:23
Speaker 3: the sixty fours came out, they were ninety percent. They
2:26
Speaker 3: got hoarded up instantaneously as keepsakes. They cut the silver
2:31
Speaker 3: to forty percent and sixty five to sixty nine, and
2:36
Speaker 3: they still couldn't keep them around. I've been buying those
2:38
Speaker 3: personally because they're considered the junkiest of the junk silver.
2:43
Speaker 3: Up until a couple of weeks ago, they were selling
2:46
Speaker 3: at discounts to melt value. Anyway, I'm digressing, but it's
2:51
Speaker 3: been too long. I think the last time I talked
2:54
Speaker 3: to you, silver was around thirty five bucks the ounce,
2:57
Speaker 3: where now it's it hit close to six two on
3:02
Speaker 3: the CRIMEX today. Nothing you're surprised about, is it?
3:07
Speaker 1: Yeah, I would imagine anyway, good to see it, Carrie.
3:11
Speaker 4: Yeah.
3:11
Speaker 1: When we probably spoke back in September, I think was
3:14
Speaker 1: the last time, and you know, back then we're all waiting.
3:17
Speaker 1: It was like, well, gold have been going sideways, you know,
3:21
Speaker 1: into the through the all the month of August. For
3:24
Speaker 1: four months, silver been going sideways, particularly to silver. I'm
3:27
Speaker 1: sure I probably mentioned and described it as Newton's law
3:32
Speaker 1: of inertia. I think they also call it the first
3:34
Speaker 1: law motion. An object at rest kind of remains at
3:37
Speaker 1: rest until a force is applied to it, and that
3:40
Speaker 1: force has been applied and continue to be applied now
3:43
Speaker 1: to silver, and it's kind of a it's a fomo.
3:46
Speaker 1: It's a momentum thing. It's a virtuous cycle. It's it's
3:52
Speaker 1: why is it going up? It's because it's going up now.
3:55
Speaker 1: There are a lot of other things in play, Yeah,
3:58
Speaker 1: the global supply picture. You know, how much metal as
4:00
Speaker 1: they're truly in the vaults in London, and what's going
4:03
Speaker 1: on in Shanghai and all that stuff. But silver sat
4:06
Speaker 1: there and sat there. Gold broke out almost two years ago,
4:10
Speaker 1: made new all time highs and is now doubled in price,
4:12
Speaker 1: where silver just only made new all time highs back
4:16
Speaker 1: in October. Yeah, so it's moving to catch up the
4:19
Speaker 1: force that applied. You know, it just sits there, doesn't
4:21
Speaker 1: go anywhere. Then all of a sudden, it starts to
4:22
Speaker 1: move up, and volume picks up, and these CTA trading funds,
4:27
Speaker 1: other traders and the like start to jump on, and
4:30
Speaker 1: it creates its own momentum that took it up to
4:33
Speaker 1: forty eight. That the old all time highs that blasted
4:36
Speaker 1: it through to fifty four. It then pulled back held
4:39
Speaker 1: forty eight of support and now it's blasted through again, ultimately,
4:42
Speaker 1: I think Carrie, it does a gold you know, where
4:45
Speaker 1: golden took about eighteen months for it to double in
4:48
Speaker 1: price after it made new all time highs in March
4:51
Speaker 1: of twenty four. For your silver, it's not going to
4:54
Speaker 1: take eighteen months, but it's following that same path.
4:56
Speaker 3: Hey, so we're going to create hemp Kes first law
5:01
Speaker 3: of metals markets. That is, I like it. Okay, if
5:06
Speaker 3: a medal is suppressed, it stays suppressed until an external force.
5:12
Speaker 3: For us is the suppression to end gold pool in
5:16
Speaker 3: the sixties. Obviously, gold all throughout, you know, our adult
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Speaker 3: lives basically has been suppressed, and silver is the perfect example.
5:28
Speaker 3: I knew at thirty two and a half, and I
5:30
Speaker 3: think we had even talked about that number, because I
5:33
Speaker 3: seem to remember we had I'm going to look it up.
5:36
Speaker 3: We had an interview way back when, and that thirty
5:39
Speaker 3: two to thirty three number was kind of like really
5:43
Speaker 3: an important number. And once it blew through that I
5:45
Speaker 3: think in May that was that was it. And we
5:50
Speaker 3: got three things happening here. Two of them I'll mention
5:53
Speaker 3: another one. You can send me an email. But look
5:56
Speaker 3: what happened Thanksgiving the day after Thanksgiving Giving melt up, right,
6:02
Speaker 3: we went up two three bucks. I can't remember fifty
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Speaker 3: three point fifty right? And why was that? Because I
6:10
Speaker 3: have a theory, and most metal traders never take off
6:13
Speaker 3: the holidays. They'll take off any other times, but they
6:16
Speaker 3: won't take off the day after Christmas, the day after Thanksgiving,
6:21
Speaker 3: and the day after New Year's because all of the
6:25
Speaker 3: banks have got their A teams are off skiing in Zermatt,
6:32
Speaker 3: the B teams in Florida or in the Caribbean. The
6:36
Speaker 3: seeded team is showing up but they're hungover, and the
6:40
Speaker 3: D team is the margin clerks. The margin clerks are
6:43
Speaker 3: running the show. And that's why you have these blowouts.
6:47
Speaker 3: So we got one up here Christmas right, December twenty sixth,
6:53
Speaker 3: and then we got January second. In addition, that's when
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Speaker 3: all the funds realign their poor folios. Like I don't
7:02
Speaker 3: want to make predictions because you know I'm always wrong,
7:06
Speaker 3: but certainly the groundwork is set for a monster move forward.
7:10
Speaker 3: Plus we're in this inasonality fourth quock beginning in the
7:14
Speaker 3: first quarter. Yeah, I mean, what's the limit here, Craig,
7:18
Speaker 3: you hit them all.
7:19
Speaker 1: Kerrie, let's touch on your first point about the breakout
7:24
Speaker 1: on Black Friday. There's a lot of would actually I don't.
7:29
Speaker 1: I hate to call it nonsense, but it's verifiable as
7:32
Speaker 1: it clickbait that made it sound like, oh, there is
7:35
Speaker 1: some massive amount of deliveries at the Comax that caused
7:39
Speaker 1: the market to melt down on it is that's bogus.
7:42
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, anybody, anybody that tracks the metals knows where
7:45
Speaker 1: to find this information. The CME's on website. And all
7:50
Speaker 1: that was was the typical first night of deliveries on
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Speaker 1: a delivery month, and it wasn't one big order for
7:56
Speaker 1: seven thousand contracts. That's all bogus. What happened on Friday,
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Speaker 1: Black Friday, right light volume, Like you said, ABTC team,
8:06
Speaker 1: everybody else is not there. And two things happened. The
8:10
Speaker 1: old that all that high from October sixteenth was about
8:14
Speaker 1: fifty four dollars, price went down to forty eight, then
8:17
Speaker 1: went back up to fifty four dollars, and hey, you know,
8:19
Speaker 1: then immediately there's this chorus of people that wanted to
8:22
Speaker 1: be the first to say it was a.
8:23
Speaker 4: Double top, which is not.
8:25
Speaker 1: But yeah, so anybody everybody starts, you know, looking at
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Speaker 1: it that way, and so if you're a trader and
8:31
Speaker 1: you're short, where are you going to place your by stop, Carrie?
8:36
Speaker 4: Right above fifty four?
8:37
Speaker 1: Right, yeah, if it breaks out, I want to I'm
8:40
Speaker 1: going to have a stop order in any when you're short,
8:42
Speaker 1: it's a buy stop, and you're just going to have
8:44
Speaker 1: that on there. Good Ntil canceled at the same time
8:48
Speaker 1: when you and we moved through fifty four during comacs
8:52
Speaker 1: hours on Black Friday, so it's light volume, not many
8:56
Speaker 1: people around, and you get this surge of buying from
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Speaker 1: the CTA, you know, managed funds, managed commodity funds, commodity
9:03
Speaker 1: advisors buying, chasing the volume up.
9:07
Speaker 4: Through fifty four.
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Speaker 1: At the same time, you get all this short covering,
9:10
Speaker 1: which is more buying, and you end up with a
9:13
Speaker 1: three dollars and fifty cent up move up to fifty
9:15
Speaker 1: seven and a half or whatever it was on that Friday, Carrie. Actually,
9:18
Speaker 1: the same thing happened. I were recording this here on
9:21
Speaker 1: Wednesday the tenth. The same thing happened yesterday, Tuesday, the night, yes,
9:25
Speaker 1: reasonably light volume day ahead while the FOMC was meeting,
9:29
Speaker 1: we moved up through those fifty seven highs, and it
9:33
Speaker 1: happened again, and you could actually see on the volume
9:37
Speaker 1: charge a little five minute candlesticks. The highest volume of
9:40
Speaker 1: the day was right when price broke through fifty seven,
9:45
Speaker 1: and you've got another surge of the CTA brying in
9:47
Speaker 1: short covering. Yeah, so it becomes again this inertia thing.
9:52
Speaker 1: It becomes a higher prices lead to higher prices type
9:56
Speaker 1: of thing. Now we've seen, you know, CTAs can rush
10:00
Speaker 1: for the exits all at the same time too. We
10:02
Speaker 1: saw some of that in late October, so you got
10:04
Speaker 1: to be mindful of that. But there's a lot of
10:07
Speaker 1: stuff going for us when we can kind of talk
10:09
Speaker 1: through this stuff, you know, you know, one by one
10:12
Speaker 1: if you want. But there's a lot suggesting that we're
10:14
Speaker 1: going to rally into year in and rally in January
10:16
Speaker 1: as well.
10:17
Speaker 3: Yeah, well it's a coil, I think. Yeah, once talked
10:20
Speaker 3: about it the jack in the box. You keep turning
10:23
Speaker 3: the handle and turning the handle, and eventually that thing
10:26
Speaker 3: pops out, and you know, it's just you know, it
10:30
Speaker 3: always feels good to be right for a change. As
10:33
Speaker 3: we watched this for you know, really since twenty eleven,
10:38
Speaker 3: with a couple of breakouts like could have bed in sixteen,
10:42
Speaker 3: but you know, it never got over thirty for long. Yeah,
10:47
Speaker 3: and you know, to all of a sudden see it
10:50
Speaker 3: finally and really like the amazing thing was like I'm
10:55
Speaker 3: buying stuff on eBay and like you can front it's
11:01
Speaker 3: not front running, but like people would put up their
11:04
Speaker 3: silver on like Thursday and Friday, there'd be a run up,
11:10
Speaker 3: and then they didn't take it down. They didn't change
11:12
Speaker 3: their price. So you're buying it below MILT value on
11:16
Speaker 3: eBay all right. Now, obviously price goes down your above
11:22
Speaker 3: melt value, but that hasn't happened, and you could just
11:26
Speaker 3: pick them off, and then there's mispricing. There's a lot
11:30
Speaker 3: of unsophisticated sellers, and then there's sophisticated sellers like coin
11:35
Speaker 3: shops that should know better, and they're messing up. Now
11:40
Speaker 3: all of those discounts to melt are pretty much gone.
11:44
Speaker 3: Maybe find some war nickels.
11:46
Speaker 1: Remember we were people were saying all the time back
11:49
Speaker 1: in twenty fifteen and seventeen, silver will never go up
11:53
Speaker 1: up because as soon as it gets to thirty and forty,
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Speaker 1: everybody's going to be selling all the silver Bay bought
11:58
Speaker 1: in twenty ten, and people gonna be dumping Grandma's candlesticks
12:02
Speaker 1: and all that kind of well, hell, we're all the
12:04
Speaker 1: you know, we blew through that, right.
12:08
Speaker 3: You know.
12:08
Speaker 4: It's you mentioned though, Carrie. It we're talking about.
12:11
Speaker 1: You and I met in what like twenty twelve, right,
12:14
Speaker 1: you know, this is all stuff we've discussed now for
12:16
Speaker 1: over a decade, you know, the physical supply issue, the
12:21
Speaker 1: leveraged markets, the derivative markets that were created in nineteen
12:25
Speaker 1: seventy five to kind of olcomize metal, to get people
12:28
Speaker 1: to accept a dot on a screen. You know, a
12:33
Speaker 1: future's price is the actual price, right. And then these
12:37
Speaker 1: banks that live you know, hand to mouth, you know,
12:40
Speaker 1: between managing the price in New York and delivering the
12:43
Speaker 1: medal in London, kind of just in time delivery, managing
12:47
Speaker 1: their books, the using the ETFs as flywheels. You know,
12:52
Speaker 1: every time they get a short metal, they get some
12:55
Speaker 1: out of the SLV or the GLD, you know, and
12:58
Speaker 1: they short it and they get it out and then
12:59
Speaker 1: they hope they can buy it back later and put
13:01
Speaker 1: it back.
13:01
Speaker 4: All of that crap.
13:02
Speaker 1: Has been going on for as long as you and
13:04
Speaker 1: I have been talking.
13:04
Speaker 4: Well, and we knew it was it.
13:07
Speaker 1: I mean, this is certainty that this was eventually that
13:11
Speaker 1: the music was going to stop. Is that app exactly exactly?
13:16
Speaker 1: And that's where these banks are now. You know, whether
13:19
Speaker 1: it's the central bank demand and now the tether demand
13:23
Speaker 1: that underpins the physical market for gold, or whether it's
13:27
Speaker 1: the eight hundred million ounce supply deficit over the last
13:30
Speaker 1: four years combined with ramped up industrial demand, uh for silver,
13:36
Speaker 1: all of these things are now kind of coming home
13:41
Speaker 1: that can't be shell gamed away anymore. And that's where
13:46
Speaker 1: again I see this stuff every day, these wave counters
13:49
Speaker 1: and people, the technical analysts and the stuff, and they
13:52
Speaker 1: try to, you know, create a reason why that dot
13:54
Speaker 1: on the screen is going to go back down to
13:56
Speaker 1: like its old moving average or something. It isn't don't
14:00
Speaker 1: have anything to do with any of that at this point.
14:02
Speaker 1: And that's where the people listening to you and I
14:06
Speaker 1: I hope they've been listening all these years, but I
14:08
Speaker 1: hope they're still they're not looking at the price and going,
14:11
Speaker 1: oh gosh, it's too expensive. The one last point while
14:16
Speaker 1: I'm on this thought carry that people need to understand
14:19
Speaker 1: if you're looking at gold specifically or silver for that matter,
14:23
Speaker 1: and saying it's expensive and it's got to go down.
14:26
Speaker 4: You're looking at.
14:26
Speaker 1: The price all wrong. Gold hasn't changed. That's why the
14:31
Speaker 1: gold doesn't have any utility, right, it just collects dust.
14:33
Speaker 1: It's a pet rock. It doesn't pay a dividend. All
14:36
Speaker 1: this gold is just goal. And what's changing is the
14:39
Speaker 1: amount of dollars or euros or yen or whatever that
14:42
Speaker 1: it takes to buy that same ounce the gold hasn't changed.
14:46
Speaker 1: What's changing is the destruction of the purchasing power of
14:50
Speaker 1: your currency. For the dollar, ten years ago, it took
14:53
Speaker 1: eleven hundred dollars to buy that one ounce of gold.
14:58
Speaker 1: That same ounce of gold at five year years ago
15:00
Speaker 1: took twenty two hundred dollars. That same ounce of goal
15:03
Speaker 1: takes forty four hundred dollars. It's not the gold that's
15:06
Speaker 1: getting expensive. It is your your currency that is wasting away.
15:11
Speaker 1: And that's how people need to understand it.
15:14
Speaker 3: Well, that is true, but we have with silver, we
15:17
Speaker 3: got an added boost there.
15:19
Speaker 4: Well, and that too. I mean it's the same thing.
15:21
Speaker 3: Yeah, shortage, we have shortish, we have escalating burgeoning industrial demand.
15:29
Speaker 3: Add manipulation. That's a that's coming to an end, all right.
15:34
Speaker 3: It looks to me like this suppression scheme is all.
15:36
Speaker 3: But you know we could talk why.
15:38
Speaker 4: Would you, right would you? Why would you be shorting it?
15:42
Speaker 1: I mean saying, you know you have that if you
15:45
Speaker 1: went at fifty dollars silver, if you are, I mean
15:48
Speaker 1: pick a bullion bank, and you know we're gonna aggressively
15:52
Speaker 1: shorten cap it when you're just getting buried.
15:55
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, we Rick said when I interviewed them last time,
16:01
Speaker 3: I said, what do you think of the people who
16:03
Speaker 3: are short silver? And he said, the people who are
16:08
Speaker 3: exercising these complex you know, paper shortthages, whatever complex trades
16:15
Speaker 3: are going to be annihilated. And you've heard up to
16:17
Speaker 3: say it before, they're going to have a religious experience.
16:21
Speaker 4: That's Rion's what you'd always say.
16:23
Speaker 1: Well, and remember Carrie, we always as we would talk
16:27
Speaker 1: about the comax and all of this leverage, and that
16:31
Speaker 1: it would always come up about the gold silver ratio.
16:34
Speaker 1: Remember that, and people would already say the ratio should
16:38
Speaker 1: be fifteen to one and said it's one hundred to one.
16:40
Speaker 4: Why is that?
16:41
Speaker 1: And I said it's actually, I think the best way
16:43
Speaker 1: to understand it is it's a leverage ratio. You know,
16:47
Speaker 1: you might just consider silver is six times more levered
16:51
Speaker 1: than gold. Now that's you know, not I don't think
16:53
Speaker 1: you can do a one to one look at it
16:55
Speaker 1: that way. But the reason why it was always eight
16:57
Speaker 1: to one or twelve to one to fifteen to one
16:59
Speaker 1: and all said it's one hundred to one is a
17:02
Speaker 1: function of all of the derivatives, the phony boloney, plastic banana,
17:07
Speaker 1: you know, good time rock and roll, futures contracts, and
17:11
Speaker 1: that's what's now being forced to be unwound. Yeah, and
17:15
Speaker 1: that's where that's where the excitement lies.
17:19
Speaker 3: Hey, what's our goal to silver? Aci and s sixty
17:22
Speaker 3: eight or nine to one? Yeah, it was ae hundred,
17:25
Speaker 3: it was one hundred and eight. Yeah, right, uh uh.
17:28
Speaker 3: I mean that in itself should tell everybody and think, oh,
17:33
Speaker 3: but silver's too high. You know, it's at record pripey.
17:38
Speaker 3: And I'm not saying buy or don't buy. I'm just
17:41
Speaker 3: saying that's not really and you said it, that's not
17:44
Speaker 3: really a valid reason not to buy, because well, you
17:49
Speaker 3: know people, people are always buying stuff at the top.
17:53
Speaker 3: But the question is, so strategy here, when do you
17:56
Speaker 3: start like shedding a little bit of your supply? Are
17:59
Speaker 3: you preparing for armageddon? Here? Is this the armageddon trade.
18:04
Speaker 1: This is the same answer from ten years ago, you know,
18:07
Speaker 1: when people would always say, okay, so when you sell, Well,
18:09
Speaker 1: the problem is, if I sell a ten ounce bar
18:15
Speaker 1: of silver, someone is going to give me back six
18:20
Speaker 1: hundred US dollars.
18:22
Speaker 4: Yeah, what the hell do I want those for? Yeah,
18:26
Speaker 4: you know, that's the problem.
18:27
Speaker 1: I mean, I suppose you could know lever it into
18:30
Speaker 1: buying some mining shares or something, or maybe you know,
18:32
Speaker 1: that's what's great about the legal tender laws that are
18:34
Speaker 1: making their way around the US now, so you can
18:37
Speaker 1: actually use the metal exchange for other real assets. You know,
18:42
Speaker 1: maybe you can buy some land or a home, you know,
18:43
Speaker 1: or you know something.
18:45
Speaker 4: But that's the problem.
18:46
Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, you might sound good, I'm going to sell
18:49
Speaker 1: this now and haul some down to my coin dealer
18:52
Speaker 1: or you know whatever. But again, what are you getting
18:55
Speaker 1: when you sell? You're getting feet dollars back or euros back,
18:58
Speaker 1: and that's that's no bargain. So you've got to have
19:00
Speaker 1: a plan for that. But Carrie, at the end of
19:03
Speaker 1: the day, this has been such a wild year.
19:09
Speaker 4: When I wrote my remember my.
19:10
Speaker 1: Macro cast, we talked about every Yeah, k sure, we
19:14
Speaker 1: were coming off a twenty five percent year in gold
19:17
Speaker 1: last year, and in the previous four times that's happened
19:20
Speaker 1: this century, gold has either gone barely higher, flat or
19:26
Speaker 1: down the next year when Carrie, we're up like sixty
19:30
Speaker 1: percent now as a follow up, so, I mean this
19:33
Speaker 1: is this is very much unprecedented, and I think in
19:37
Speaker 1: large part it is because it's just a collection of
19:40
Speaker 1: stuff that you're kind of being warned is coming, and
19:43
Speaker 1: it's being front run in a way. And so when
19:46
Speaker 1: people say, you know, should I still be buying or
19:48
Speaker 1: should I still be holding twenty twenty six is going
19:51
Speaker 1: to be that's what's being front run.
19:53
Speaker 3: Now.
19:54
Speaker 1: Remember back in February, remember Bessent with is we're going
19:58
Speaker 1: to monetize the I said of the balance sheet?
20:00
Speaker 4: Remember all that talk?
20:02
Speaker 3: Yeah right.
20:04
Speaker 1: There was also the verbiage of the by Bitcoin Act
20:08
Speaker 1: or the Bitcore Reserve Act, where it says in the
20:12
Speaker 1: bill that they're going to revalue gold to its market
20:16
Speaker 1: price up from forty dollars forty two to twenty two
20:19
Speaker 1: or whatever. It's carried out now as a deficit neutral
20:23
Speaker 1: way of coming, you know, getting cash from the Fed
20:27
Speaker 1: to fund the Bitcoin Act. So there's all of that
20:29
Speaker 1: that's out there you've got. Bessett has talked about emerging
20:33
Speaker 1: the operations of Fed and Treasury working hand in glove.
20:37
Speaker 1: In twenty twenty six, Powell comes out and says all
20:40
Speaker 1: this stuff again today about oh well, only one cut
20:43
Speaker 1: next year, and all this kind of jazz, and he's
20:45
Speaker 1: as lame duck as it gets. Who cares what Powell thinks.
20:48
Speaker 1: He's gone in May anyway, And so all of this
20:51
Speaker 1: stuff is pointing toward dramatically lower interest rates, probably some
20:55
Speaker 1: form of yield curve control, sharply negative real interest rates, remonization,
21:01
Speaker 1: revaluation of gold. All of these things are coming next year.
21:05
Speaker 1: So it's again it's not straight up. It's going to
21:07
Speaker 1: continue in this pattern that's held for almost two years
21:10
Speaker 1: now of twenty percent rallies and then consolidations and then
21:13
Speaker 1: twenty percent rallies. But we're far from a top for
21:16
Speaker 1: gold and definitely far from a top for silver, and
21:19
Speaker 1: so people need to plan accordingly with that.
21:22
Speaker 3: In money, well, we're still seeing higher highs and higher
21:26
Speaker 3: those we'll say the trends your friend here, Yeah, and
21:31
Speaker 3: you see it even on a daily basis, The higher
21:33
Speaker 3: highs and the higher lows.
21:36
Speaker 4: And the dips get bought.
21:37
Speaker 1: There'll be this big mass rush of selling of futures
21:40
Speaker 1: usually while the COMEX is open, and get these huge
21:43
Speaker 1: red bars of volume and price will plunge a dollar
21:46
Speaker 1: dollar fifty or something, and then that dries up, the
21:49
Speaker 1: vibe goes away in prices.
21:53
Speaker 3: Saw tooth. Yeah, really fun. And like we were talking
21:57
Speaker 3: about the day after Thanksgiving a black Friday, well, historically
22:03
Speaker 3: those would be the days when they slammed silver. Yes,
22:06
Speaker 3: there was no liquid the not yeah, right, and a
22:10
Speaker 3: very short a very uh you know, just a little
22:14
Speaker 3: concentrated sell into that market, especially in the access market.
22:19
Speaker 3: We even talk about the access market, right, which is
22:23
Speaker 3: most subject to manipulation or for sure. And even there
22:28
Speaker 3: when you see when you see silver go up a
22:31
Speaker 3: buck in the access market.
22:33
Speaker 1: Yeah, you still see them trying to hit it. I
22:37
Speaker 1: always call it the after hours, the billbacks, you know,
22:41
Speaker 1: the the bid size, the training volume shrink by about
22:44
Speaker 1: ninety percent once the COMEX hour stop, and so you
22:47
Speaker 1: get so much more bang for your buck if you're
22:49
Speaker 1: trying to influence price. And I'm not saying it's going
22:53
Speaker 1: to be green candles every day, there's still going to
22:57
Speaker 1: be uh slams. There's still going to be, you know,
22:59
Speaker 1: the chasing out of that momentum like we saw in October.
23:02
Speaker 1: There's still going to be consolidation phases. Gold is still
23:05
Speaker 1: technically in a consolidation phase. In the peaked in middle
23:08
Speaker 1: of October and now we're in the middle of December
23:10
Speaker 1: and we're still below that peak. But there are going
23:13
Speaker 1: to there's no reason to suggest yet that any kind
23:17
Speaker 1: of top is in either. You mentioned the pattern higher
23:21
Speaker 1: highs and higher lows, you start breaking down and making
23:24
Speaker 1: lower lows. Okay, well, then we've got something to talk about.
23:28
Speaker 1: But for now, as we head to the end of
23:30
Speaker 1: the year, you said seasonally strong period. Once we get
23:33
Speaker 1: past about the fifteenth of December, and certainly all through January,
23:37
Speaker 1: the dollar is weaker, the dollars falling again from one
23:40
Speaker 1: hundred and is back under ninety nine. When nobody's expecting
23:43
Speaker 1: at this point as a dollar to go back to
23:44
Speaker 1: the lower end of its range this year, down near
23:46
Speaker 1: ninety six. Well, if that happens, that's going to get
23:49
Speaker 1: the computers buying the futures too.
23:51
Speaker 4: There's a lot of really.
23:53
Speaker 1: Positive stuff for the metals, and my strategy continues to
23:58
Speaker 1: be try to trade the dip and try to ride
24:01
Speaker 1: the next wave up.
24:02
Speaker 3: Yeah, I've done something and I don't recommend it. I
24:05
Speaker 3: don't obviously, you don't give financial advice here.
24:07
Speaker 4: I don't wally imagine what you're going to say.
24:09
Speaker 3: I've done something so stupid, Craig, you know, like the
24:13
Speaker 3: dumbest trade on the street, you know what it is.
24:17
Speaker 4: I can think of a few, but I can't imagine.
24:20
Speaker 3: The dumbest trade. But that's how good this market is AGQ.
24:24
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, yeah, the all futures etf yeah.
24:28
Speaker 3: Yeah, the dumbest trade on the street. Right, it's just
24:32
Speaker 3: generally I've got.
24:33
Speaker 4: It going to zero, yeah, yeah, because you can't hold
24:36
Speaker 4: it long.
24:37
Speaker 1: Let's put it that way. You can't just buy it
24:38
Speaker 1: and take US certificate.
24:40
Speaker 3: But you buy it, it goes up twenty percent in
24:43
Speaker 3: three days. Yeah, and then but you know, it's not
24:47
Speaker 3: a bad thing to hold when we get these holiday
24:50
Speaker 3: trades coming in, right, see melt ups here almost certainly
24:54
Speaker 3: unless they unload everything and they do the what did
24:58
Speaker 3: we call it, the monetary and who knows who got contracts,
25:03
Speaker 3: they just dumped them. But the danger is, and you've
25:07
Speaker 3: said this for years, and I've quoted you so many times,
25:09
Speaker 3: I always give you attribution is like when they get
25:14
Speaker 3: to the point where they drive the price below what
25:18
Speaker 3: its physical should be, and then all the buyers come
25:22
Speaker 3: rushing in because they tripped all the algorithms and they
25:26
Speaker 3: know that now and yeah, they just can't do what
25:29
Speaker 3: they used to do, Craig. And that's maybe that's where
25:32
Speaker 3: the suppression's really ending.
25:34
Speaker 1: Yeah, particularly in gold, and we're probably starting to see
25:38
Speaker 1: that in silver the gold move. When I wrote the
25:41
Speaker 1: macrocast this year, I said, what did I get Always
25:43
Speaker 1: do that just for myself so I can go back
25:45
Speaker 1: and realize what I was Remember what I was thinking
25:48
Speaker 1: in January, and what.
25:48
Speaker 4: Did I get wrong?
25:50
Speaker 1: And what I missed last year was the impact of
25:52
Speaker 1: this relentless, really central bank demand. We got to throw
25:55
Speaker 1: the tether demand on there too, and so it really
25:59
Speaker 1: hampered what has always been the ability of these banks
26:02
Speaker 1: to just overwhelm the bid and smash price down and
26:05
Speaker 1: get the price rolling, because you get to a certain
26:07
Speaker 1: point where here comes that physical bid and it just
26:11
Speaker 1: pushes it right back up again. And that's been the
26:14
Speaker 1: underlying this pattern really since late twenty twenty three, about
26:18
Speaker 1: October of twenty twenty three. So it's been more than
26:21
Speaker 1: two years now, and we're getting to that point where
26:23
Speaker 1: silver is looking like that too, and that's going to
26:27
Speaker 1: be again, we don't know. We've always wondered, you know.
26:31
Speaker 1: You remember the Gata hearings on Capitol Hill in twenty ten,
26:35
Speaker 1: you know about are there one hundred digital ounces for
26:38
Speaker 1: every one physical ounce? No one's ever known. We're in
26:44
Speaker 1: the process of finding out.
26:46
Speaker 3: Yeah, well, I think you're early in.
26:48
Speaker 4: The process, too early in the process.
26:50
Speaker 3: I think Rick knows, I think Eric Spratt knows. I mean,
26:54
Speaker 3: those are the people who really got access to the data,
26:58
Speaker 3: but nobody totally he knows, right.
27:01
Speaker 4: Right, nobody knows exactly.
27:02
Speaker 1: Well, yeah, because it's deliberately opaque, you know, and you
27:06
Speaker 1: don't know. You know that we could go on and
27:09
Speaker 1: on about the vaults of London and how much silver
27:11
Speaker 1: and gold do they really have underpinning you know, what
27:14
Speaker 1: are multiples ten times, twenty times, one hundred times whatever
27:19
Speaker 1: the unallocated trade that they have every single day in
27:24
Speaker 1: London and versus off of this actual physical float what
27:27
Speaker 1: is there and that's what's being drawn down. We don't
27:30
Speaker 1: know how much it is. London will claim it's a
27:32
Speaker 1: certain number but nobody, nobody knows.
27:34
Speaker 4: Right, and so anyway it's coming.
27:37
Speaker 1: You know. I remember recording a video for Kinesis four
27:41
Speaker 1: or five years ago that they turned into a little
27:43
Speaker 1: promo video where I was talking about unallocated accounts and
27:46
Speaker 1: how if you're in one of these deals, you know,
27:49
Speaker 1: at a Canadian bank or you know, in Switzerland or something,
27:53
Speaker 1: and they say, yeah, this is a great deal. Yeah
27:57
Speaker 1: it's your metal, but no storage. Well right right there,
28:01
Speaker 1: that should shoot up a red flag. Wait a second.
28:04
Speaker 1: An allocated account is my medal, and it says there's
28:07
Speaker 1: you know, one percent storage v An unallocated account is
28:10
Speaker 1: supposedly my medal and it's one tenth of one percent
28:13
Speaker 1: of a sort fee. Well no, wait a second, that's
28:16
Speaker 1: you're right there, she said off. But anyway, that's where
28:19
Speaker 1: the real weakness is, those allocated accounts around the world,
28:25
Speaker 1: where everybody thinks they've got the metal fleck, these hedge
28:30
Speaker 1: funds and the like, Even really smart smart people like
28:32
Speaker 1: Paul Tudor Jones or Stanley Druga Miller.
28:34
Speaker 4: The thing they own metal, they've got price exposure. When
28:37
Speaker 4: they own an ETF. They don't own jack.
28:39
Speaker 1: And that's where the real weakness is going to show
28:42
Speaker 1: up first again.
28:43
Speaker 4: That's where it looks like it's coming. That's what's going
28:45
Speaker 4: to happen.
28:46
Speaker 3: That's further away. ETFs are so risky. You know R's
28:51
Speaker 3: buff It says, you don't know who's wearing a bathing
28:54
Speaker 3: suit until the tide goes out, and who's swimming naked
28:58
Speaker 3: and we're going to find out soon enough. Hey, so
29:01
Speaker 3: Tfmetal Reports dot Com and go there. It's still less
29:07
Speaker 3: than Actually it's less than three lattes at a certain
29:12
Speaker 3: undisclosed strawthee shop less than three. So I can't that
29:18
Speaker 3: is a steal, especially if you pegged it to silver.
29:22
Speaker 3: Could you imagine what your price would be?
29:25
Speaker 1: That's true, you know what, That's what I should do.
29:27
Speaker 1: I should charge every month what an ounce costs. It's like,
29:32
Speaker 1: it's funny. I'd like to do contests on my side
29:34
Speaker 1: every once in a while, you know, get people involved
29:36
Speaker 1: on you know, worst price going to end at the
29:38
Speaker 1: end of the week and all that kind of stuff.
29:39
Speaker 1: The price typically is I used to make my own
29:42
Speaker 1: Scottsdale silver, used to make my own TFMR silver rounds,
29:46
Speaker 1: and so that used to be you know, no problem,
29:48
Speaker 1: give one of those babies away for twenty bucks. Well,
29:51
Speaker 1: now it's sixty more contests.
29:54
Speaker 3: The dollars are worth less. But well we'll do a
29:58
Speaker 3: TFR sub encription to physical ratio there.
30:03
Speaker 4: I like now, I like it, you know, to one third.
30:07
Speaker 3: It's a steal. It's a third, you know. Yeah, but
30:09
Speaker 3: you can't beat that.
30:11
Speaker 4: I be using I'm stealing that, Carrie. I like that
30:13
Speaker 4: a lot.
30:14
Speaker 3: And if you'd only listened to Craig Good ten years ago, man,
30:20
Speaker 3: you wouldn't. You would have paid for a lifetime of
30:23
Speaker 3: TF Metals report. So hey, the links in the show notes, questions, comments,
30:28
Speaker 3: shoot me an email kl at Carrie LUTs dot com. Craig,
30:32
Speaker 3: we will talk to you again real soon.
30:34
Speaker 4: Thanks for coming on always fun, my friend.
30:36
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to Carrie Lutz's Financial Survival Network, your
30:40
Speaker 2: solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to
30:44
Speaker 2: Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now more than
30:50
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