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Mar 20 | Closing Market Report · Closing Market Report

• 0:00
  Todd Gleason: From the Lende Grant University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois, this is the closing market reported as the March 2025. I'm extension's Todd Gleeson. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Matt Bennett. He's at AgMarket.net. We'll take something of a deep dive into politics related to the farm bill and what's happening in Washington DC as it relates to budgets and tax cuts.
• 0:24
  And then as we close out our time together, we'll discuss the agricultural weather too. That with Mike Tanura, T storm weather here on this Thursday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world online on demand anytime you'd like to listen. Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. May corn for the day settled at $4.69, up 7¢ a bushel.
• 1:02
  July at $4.75 and a half, up 6 and a quarter, and the December new crop at $4.53, a penny and a half higher. Soybeans, $10.13 on the lead May, up four and three quarters. July 1025 at a quarter, three and three quarters higher. In November, new crop up a quarter cents. Settlement price there at $10.10 and a quarter cents.
• 1:21
  Bean meal futures at $2.97 10 down 60. The bean oil $42.71 35 higher. Both of those in the May contract and wheat futures for the July. Soft red down 6 and a half cents today at $5.73 and a half. The hard red July harvest month at $6.00 1, down seven and three quarters of a cent.
• 1:40
  Live cattle futures at $2.00 5 and 2 and a half cents, 2 dollars 17 and a half lower. Feeder cattle $289.10, a dollar 60 higher, and lean hogs were at $96.25, down 25¢. The live cattle were higher, not lower, by the way. Crude oil at $68 a barrel, a dollar 13 higher. Diesel fuel at $2, 20 and 7 tenths of a cent up 2¢, and the wholesale price of gasoline today, 2 and a tenth of a cent higher to settle at $2.19 and 3 tenths of a cent.
• 2:12
  The Dow Jones Industrial Average up a 35 points. Matt Bennett from AgMarket.net now joins us to take a look at what's been happening in the marketplace for the day and the week. Hello, Matt. Thanks for being with us. What took place in the overnight and day trade today?
• 2:27
  Matt Bennett: Yeah. So, you know, you look at the overnight market, and it wasn't anything too exciting. It's been this way. It's been pretty quiet here. Volume's been down.
• 2:38
  Day session, though, gave a little bit of life to corn, especially on the front month, had some bull spreading going on, and no doubt there's probably some business that we've seen. I mean, exports were good again. I believe we're around 50,000,000 ton versus 10,000,000 needed to reach USD goal. So, I mean, we're just boiling right along 50,000 ton, I guess, versus 10,000. But regardless, we're boiling right along.
• 3:03
  These exports are gonna have to get some sort of adjustment at some point if if this continues because we've really been exporting a lot of corn here.
• 3:10
  Todd Gleason: Are we hearing out of Brazil that they're worried yet about dry conditions for safrinha corn? I know some of the meteorologists are beginning to say that.
• 3:19
  Matt Bennett: Yeah. There's no doubt that there's issues down there. Now some of the forecasts have been trying to bring some rain in for them, but, you know, at the same time, you're gonna have to bring in a broad based rain to kind of switch the trend, if you will. You know, there's a lot of concern that they won't get moist enough before this dry season starts here. I think they say the next, you know, thirty five to forty days are paramount.
• 3:43
  So no doubt this dry trend that they're currently in is is very concerning.
• 3:47
  Todd Gleason: There were some numbers out earlier in the week, related to acreage, both the Allendale figures and those from the old Informa Group, now S and P Global, if I remember correctly. What did you think of those, and what are you at agmarket.net using?
• 4:04
  Matt Bennett: You know, as far as what we're using, I mean, I usually don't look too closely at everyone else's. I wait until the, you know, the the average comes out. You can kinda see where everyone's at. We're at 95.39 for corn acres and 82.75 for beans. Between AgMarket and GSA, we surveyed all of the people that work with us, you know, who in turn talked to their growers and surveyed their growers.
• 4:28
  You know, it's just pretty overwhelming that there's gonna be a lot more corn this year. You know, last week, talked to a lot of folks even in Central Illinois that said that their corn on corn run as far as Anhydrous was concerned was very impressive. So we we're looking for pretty big corn acres. Ninety five three nine sounds like a big number. But, Todd, I wouldn't be surprised one bit if it's not above our number, maybe even a fair amount above it.
• 4:53
  Todd Gleason: And, again, what was the soybean figure?
• 4:55
  Matt Bennett: 82.75.
• 4:56
  Todd Gleason: So that number is really pretty low. What does that do to the marketplace?
• 5:01
  Matt Bennett: Well, there's no doubt that The US balance sheet will tighten. We we know that that would be the case if our number came to pass. When you start looking at, for instance, what the balance sheet would look like domestically, you know, you could get some small fleet tight numbers. Now we feel like the USDA may have to make an adjustment or two when it comes to crush. No doubt that soybean exports are kinda called into question.
• 5:24
  We don't know if all of our sales will end up getting shipped or not. So but at the same time, if you end up with a three eighty this year, you know, and then you plug in an 82.75 for acreage, then you could start talking about a major need for domestic rationing. So we do know that we can take some beans on on an import basis. I know people don't wanna hear that. It's happened before.
• 5:45
  I think it could happen again. You know? And so we have to keep a close eye on that. But you're gonna have a divergence between world and domestic once again, it appears. And so it'll just kinda be interesting to see how this plays out, but we don't expect huge bean acres.
• 5:59
  When you're looking at November beans as the market closed here, 10:10, I mean, Todd, that just doesn't work for most guys, especially if they can't raise high yielding beans. So very few people in the entire US can get a a cash bid per fall that's $10 or above. I think you'd have to get into the Delta to see those. So it's pretty tough sailing right now.
• 6:20
  Todd Gleason: On the flip side, a corn number above 95,000,000 acres would be big and put pressure on the marketplace. How does that play into the market across corn, beans, and wheat?
• 6:31
  Matt Bennett: Yeah. I mean, whenever you look at corn and wheat, for instance, no question that world stocks continue to dwindle. I mean, both of those, you've seen that happen. And so you've gotta think that that's part of the reason the funds there for a while. We're wanting to be fairly long corn.
• 6:46
  I mean, how would a big acreage number play into corn and beans? You've gotta think that this ratio from beans to corn, which, you know, is still running at multiyear level lows, that that would flip flop pretty substantially. And that doesn't mean necessarily that beans are going up. That could mean that corn goes down and beans stay the same, but we feel like that relationship's gonna change quite a bit once you get the acreage numbers verified. We've gotta think that they're trading them to an extent already.
• 7:13
  You know? But at the same time, Todd, it's it's it's gonna be a bit of a shock to the system, I think, to actually see those numbers printed. So and especially if you get something above, you know, for instance, the trade average or maybe even something above the trade range. I think those are all possibilities.
• 7:30
  Todd Gleason: Are you satisfied it's standing aside the marketplace and waiting for those acreage figures to come out before you do something else?
• 7:37
  Matt Bennett: You know, I don't really wanna do anything as far as making sales right now, especially for the vast majority of growers that tell they can't really make these prices work. So, you know, if that's the case, I'd kinda wait just for the time being and see how these acres numbers impact the market. You know? If we're gonna start talking about weather after acreage, there's no doubt that there's definitely plenty to talk about. We've got some issues throughout the corn boil as far as dryness is concerned.
• 8:04
  We finally got some rain in our part of the world, but, you know, at the same time, there's very few tiles running anywhere, and I think it's something we're gonna have to keep a very close eye on.
• 8:13
  Todd Gleason: You are far enough south in Illinois that your open date starts tomorrow for soybean planting. You were talking about that last week with us. Did you get rain that'll hold you out of the field?
• 8:22
  Matt Bennett: Yeah. We don't have enough, we're not able to get, rolling at that first date on the twenty first. But I do think that any areas that didn't receive rain, you're gonna start seeing some bean planters roll especially. I don't know that corn people will be putting corn in the ground just yet. There'll probably be some areas, but at the same time, you know, it sure seems like most people have been wanting to focus on soybeans first and then taking on corn later, here over the last few years, and I don't expect this year will be any different.
• 8:50
  Todd Gleason: Thank you much, Matt. Oh, absolutely. Matt Bennett is with AgMarket.net. In today's agricultural news, we'll start with USDA where it has announced up to a hundred million dollars in funding for research into various methods of preventing highly pathogenic avian influenza into poultry flocks. Rod Bain has more with the secretary of agriculture.
• 9:14
  Rod Bain: The latest on USDA's five pronged plan to combat highly pathogenic avian influenza in poultry flocks and, in turn, reduce high egg prices.
• 9:23
  Brooke Rollins: This morning, we announced that up to $100,000,000 will be available for a funding opportunity to support projects on avian influenza prevention, therapeutics, vaccines, and research.
• 9:34
  Rod Bain: Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rawlins with the announcement in a call with reporters Thursday. She notes the emergency funding is available through a competitive process with projects focused in areas from novel therapeutics and vaccines to risk pathways research. Applications are due May 19. In addition,
• 9:51
  Brooke Rollins: USDA is offering a webinar to assist interested applicants in learning more about the funding opportunity and how to submit a proposal on Tuesday, April 1 at twelve p. M. Eastern.
• 10:02
  Rod Bain: Details are available online at www.aphis.usda.gov. I'm Rod Bain reporting for the U. S. Department of Agriculture in Washington, D. C.
• 10:14
  Todd Gleason: From poultry, we turn to pipelines. Iowa landowners who oppose the carbon pipeline project from Summit Carpet Solutions rallied this week in Des Moines. Their renewed energy comes after South Dakota governor Larry Rodin signed a law blocking the company from using eminent domain to build its carbon capture pipelines in his state. Since the South Dakota governor signed the law, Summit has asked the South Dakota Public Utilities Commission to suspend its pipeline permit application. Now the Iowa landowners demanded lawmakers in Des Moines approve a similar bill that would eliminate eminent domain.
• 10:48
  Summit Carbon Solutions intends to build a carbon sequestration pipeline extending 2,500 miles across South Dakota, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, and North Dakota to connect over 50 ethanol plants. Now we'll stay with the agricultural news, but we'll focus on the farm bill. Thirteenth district representative Nikki Budzinski was in Urbana yesterday for a farmer roundtable. She's a democrat and a member of the house committee on agriculture. Agriculture.
• 11:17
  The congresswoman is concerned the Republican budget working through Capitol Hill, different than the just passed continuing resolution, may make it harder to pass a farm bill in the future. This is because the GOP funding bill includes a 230,000,000,000 cut to SNAP benefits over a ten year period.
• 11:37
  Nikki Budzinski: So what I'm saying is that if they're actually able to do that in this next budget, it is going to hurt our chances of getting a bipartisan farm bill negotiated.
• 11:46
  Todd Gleason: Budzinski says if the GOP plan to cut SNAP is enacted, it will make it harder for her urban and even some rural colleagues to vote for a farm bill, which would be more fully dedicated to farmers. Historically, the farm bill has been both bipartisan and supported because of the food and feeding programs across rural and urban districts. Budzinski did share some farm bill related thoughts now circulating in DC.
• 12:10
  Nikki Budzinski: I have not heard that any of anything will be done to crop insurance, that in the budget negotiations, have not heard of any cuts. I think that what, there's been more discussion of in the House Agriculture Committee is actually trying to plus up, you know, and help reference prices. But, again, it's a pay for. Who's gonna pay for that? And right now, when you're talking about taking dollars potentially out of SNAP, it doesn't leave a lot of ability to to say we're gonna find other money for reference prices in in adjusting crop insurance.
• 12:44
  Todd Gleason: Thirteenth district representative Nikki Budzinski was in Urbana yesterday along with Illinois governor JB Pritzker and the state director of agriculture, Jerry Costello. Let's stay with the farm bill where, again, it faces tough odds this year given all congress must do on other issues like taxes and raising the debt ceiling, and that means the possibility of a farm bill plan b, the way former USDA deputy secretary Chuck Connors sees it, and the landscape in DC.
• 13:13
  Chuck Connors: Just given how few bills are going to pass, you have to believe there's a chance that the farm bill and, you know, other priorities might be a part of that reconciliation process.
• 13:24
  Todd Gleason: A 4 and a half trillion with a t dollar monster bill to include an extension to the president's twenty seventeen tax cuts, budget cuts, and an increase in the debt limit as you've already heard. O'Connor told AgriPulse's Ag and Food Policy Summit there's precedent for using a reconciliation package that cannot be filibustered to pass a farm bill.
• 13:46
  Chuck Connors: Some of our difficult farm bills in the past have been done as a result of of reconciliation. And so this is obviously in that category of very difficult farm bills.
• 13:57
  Todd Gleason: Especially because, again, of the Democratic pushback against SNAP and other cuts reaching a boiling point. Iowa Senator Chuck Grassley says a farm bill might not be a good fit with budget reconciliation.
• 14:08
  Chuck Grassley: You kinda like to keep everything balanced in a farm bill, and this would take one of the important things out of it.
• 14:14
  Todd Gleason: Like funding an increase in reference prices via reconciliation where it might not be as robust, Conor also says a lot could be missing by skirting regular order.
• 14:24
  Chuck Connors: We've got the basis for a very, you know, some very good farm legislation here. Our differences aren't as vast as as they have been historically in my humble opinion, and so I would like to see regular order proceed there.
• 14:36
  Todd Gleason: Given congress's inability to get things done, Conner says short circuiting the farm bill process is an option. And that's a look at today's agricultural news. You're listening to the closing market report from Illinois. Public media, It's public radio for the farming world online on demand anytime you'd like to listen to us at willag.org, w I l l a g 0 r g, or in your favorite podcast applications, just look up the closing market report. Our theme music is written, performed, produced in courtesy of Logan County, Illinois Farmer, Tim Gleason.
• 15:24
  Let's check-in now with the CEO and president of t storm weather, t storm dot net online, Mike Tenor, to take a look at the global growing regions. Hello, Mike. Thanks for being with us again.
• 15:36
  Mike Tannura: Hey, Todd. Thanks for having me.
• 15:37
  Todd Gleason: Let's start in South America. Sofrino or second crop corn is in the ground and growing. Weather conditions are always important. Can you give me some background on how that crop is doing at this point?
• 15:51
  Mike Tannura: Well, it's pretty dry. If you look at rainfall since February 15, the key region of Goias and
• 15:57
  Speaker 9: The 2017 Tax Cuts
• 15:59
  Mike Tannura: for Jobs
• 16:00
  Speaker 9: Act is set to expire this year if Congress doesn't take action. Dustin Shearer, director of government affairs for the American Farm Bureau Federation, says letting the act expire would have significant impacts to agriculture and a majority of Americans. If nothing is done, there will be a tax increase
• 16:19
  Mike Tannura: at
• 16:19
  Speaker 9: the end
• 16:19
  Mike Tannura: of the year. This is a new price set up going into the key part of season.
• 16:23
  Speaker 9: Will be taxed.
• 16:24
  Mike Tannura: The key part of season essentially starts
• 16:26
  Todd Gleason: next to would end. We need to
• 16:28
  Mike Tannura: make sure that Congress
• 16:29
  Speaker 9: does its job and makes this tax reform firm. Here, says the TCJA includes many provisions that are beneficial to lowering Americans' tax bills. To renewing the legislation. The first of which is the reconciliation process between the senate and the house.
• 17:25
  Mike Tannura: And so that happened about February.
• 17:28
  Speaker 9: Tuned to fb.org
• 17:29
  Mike Tannura: for
• 17:30
  Rod Bain: the latest updates. Chad
• 17:32
  Speaker 9: Smith, Washington.
• 17:33
  Mike Tannura: In southern areas, the story is a little bit drier. There will be some nice storms there around Monday, but other than that, it doesn't look all that wet. We think an area of surface level high pressure will dominate Southern Brazil, and that will keep some pretty big rains that take place in Argentina and even in the parts of Paraguay to their west, pretty much outside of the key growing belt, although they will receive some rain. So we're thinking it'll be drier than normal there as well. And again, this is just going to put a real lot of pressure on the rainfall forecast from around April.
• 18:07
  Todd Gleason: Turning your attention to North America now, let's visit Kansas, the hard red winter wheat growing regions of the Great Plains States. Can you tell me what the conditions are like? I know they've had some really cold, blizzard kinds of weather, but they've also been really dry.
• 18:25
  Mike Tannura: Well, they have been. If you look at rainfall over the past ninety days, around half of their crop was drier than normal over their period. And the only two years that compared to it going back ten years will be 2018 and 2022. So this is one of the drier setups that they've had leading into their key part of the season. Now there was some rain and some snow over the last thirty six hours, and that did improve conditions a little bit in Western Kansas.
• 18:51
  But for the overall big picture, it hasn't changed too dramatically because most of the rain and the snow that we saw fell to the north of the driest area. And the dry area, keep in mind, is across Southern Kansas and all of Oklahoma and Texas. One thing we need to keep in mind though that's going to make this growing season a little tricky and that we'll never really know until we start harvesting is that we've dealt with two pretty big wind storms since we last talked. Last Friday, there were wind gusts of 60 to 80 miles an hour across a widespread area of Oklahoma and Texas. And that was then followed by winds of 50 to 70 miles an hour Tuesday and Tuesday night even yesterday across a big chunk of that same area plus Colorado, Kansas, and even into Nebraska.
• 19:39
  So we'll see if that turns into some type of factor that damages a crop. But overall, they're not really doing all that great for this time of the year. And it's going to be dry there for the next seven to ten days, and then rain rain chances look a little bit better once we get toward April 1. But we're going to need to see some nice rains to get out of this situation, Todd.
• 19:59
  Todd Gleason: Let's put this into perspective if you could as it's related to soil erosion. Those really strong winds carried soils from Texas, Oklahoma, I suppose parts of Kansas right here in the East Central Illinois. What do we know about that?
• 20:14
  Mike Tannura: Well, it was pretty amazing to see. I was up myself on Saturday morning and looked out the window, and I saw something I never thought I'd see in my life, which was this reddish brown hue that was covering the sky. And I knew immediately that this was the dust from out in the plains because I'd never seen anything like that. Normally, the sky would be blue when it's hazy, not this brown color. And it's kind of amazing to think about, Todd, because we've all heard of this just from knowing the history of the Dust Bowl and what happened back in the 1930s.
• 20:46
  There's certainly plenty of accounts of all that dust in the Plains reaching through the Midwest and even all the way across the East Coast into Washington DC, which is when politicians at that time started to realize that this really was a big deal because this should not be happening. But yeah, that just tells you not only how dry it's been out there, but how significant those winds were. And those winds were really strong. We're talking official gusts of 80 miles an hour or more. And from non thunderstorms, keep in mind, this is just winds blowing west to east.
• 21:18
  So, yeah, very unusual.
• 21:20
  Todd Gleason: Straight line winds. Turn your attention to Ukraine, Russia, and the wheat crop there.
• 21:25
  Mike Tannura: Well, all these areas are also pretty dry. I know we keep talking about dry, dry, and dry, but that's just the way it is right now. Over the last ninety days, Europe, Russia, and Ukraine, when you look at their wheat crops, they all were the driest in March at this time of the year going into the key part of the season over at least the last six years. And it's just another indication that they need rain. Some areas like Ukraine are really getting pretty off the charts here with the amount of dryness that they have.
• 21:53
  Now for them, the key part of the season is still a little further into the future. They don't start turning sensitive immediately like we will hear in The US over the next month. For them, it'll be maybe two to three months and even in the parts of June, so there is time for things to change. But in that area, if we don't see a pretty nice weather pattern develop, it's going to be a big problem for them. Now, they do have a little bit of better news than some of these other areas that we've talked about because there are a couple of significant systems that will pass across Europe.
• 22:22
  We think some of those are going to bring some nice rains into at least the southern third of wheat across Europe, and maybe some of that will extend into Ukraine. But overall, it doesn't look super wet even though there was some rain over the last few days in some of these areas. So this is another thing to keep in mind, but that one we don't have to think about so hard today. We will need to think about that one a little bit more though in April.
• 22:45
  Todd Gleason: Thank you much, Mike.
• 22:46
  Mike Tannura: Yeah. Thanks for having me, Todd.
• 22:48
  Todd Gleason: Mike Tenurez with t storm weather. That's tstormweather.net online. You've been listening to the closing market report. It is a production of Illinois Public Medium. It is public radio for the farming world online on demand at willag.org.
• 23:02
  That's willag.0rg. I'm University of Illinois Extension's Todd Gleason. Doctor. JACKSON: