Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 62 - 6/24/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 62 - 6/24/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:19
Hello and welcome to episode 62 of the All Systems Go sports
0:25
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:28
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
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Happy Monday, a new week begins the final week in June before we
0:39
turn the page to July. Although I am disappointed
0:42
because July means July 4th. Yet it looks like as of now
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there's no Joey Chestnut in the Nathan's Hot Dog eating contest
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because he committed the cardinal sin.
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You know the cardinal sin in his been in baseball is betting on
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baseball. Just ask Pete Rose or Shoeless
0:55
Joe will the cardinal sin in competitive eating for Nathan's
0:59
is going and signing up an endorsement deal with a beyond
1:02
meats company that actually isn't me and his lab created me.
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Anyway, you can Google the whole story.
1:08
Total side note, guys, great to be with you.
1:10
Hope you had a great weekend. You can tell maybe by the sound
1:12
of my voice I'm a little banged up.
1:14
I had a heck of a weekend because I spent the weekend
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celebrating one of my best buds getting married.
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It was an incredible weekend with let's just say a lot of
1:22
alcoholic beverages. So I'm I'm a little bit a little
1:25
bit rough and I don't know, got got after her pretty hard.
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So I'm still powering through right now.
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I lack of sleep, but shout out to fed and Sue Ellen for tying
1:33
the knot. A beautiful ceremony, awesome
1:36
Saturday and Sunday. It was so much fun and I'm I'm
1:39
paying for it now, but it was all worth it.
1:42
So again, as long as you got 3 aspirin and a big thing of
1:45
Gatorade and a water, hopefully you can recover any hangover
1:48
that you may that you may take over over the over the course of
1:52
two days of straight party. Anyway, one thing I did love
1:55
this weekend guys was AUFC winner biting in the arena.
1:59
How about our guy Muen Gufarov getting it done for the team, A
2:03
data-driven biting system match. We knew he had the youth
2:06
advantage. 28 years old versus 36 years old was all about the
2:10
data baby. You know that girl Meghan
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trainer all about the base, all about the data.
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That's right, because Muen Gufarov was only getting 45% of
2:18
bets, but 65% of dollars, and had a very sharp reverse line
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move -115 all the way to -160 so really exactly what we were
2:26
looking for. Remember, he didn't exactly have
2:28
the height and the reach, but he had the youth.
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He had the low bets, higher dollars bet split, and he had
2:34
the big sharp line move. So really he was checking off
2:36
the big main boxes for us. So as I was, you know, going to
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the bathroom to check the score, 'cause you can't be checking UFC
2:43
scores next to the wife at a wedding.
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She'll get mad at you. But it was very happy to see
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Muin Goo far off or got fura. I don't even want to pronounce
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the name, but either way got it done in biting for the team.
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So turning the page to the last week of June here guys.
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Let's finish up the week on or finish up the month.
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I should say on a hot note, get off to a good start.
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I have a six pack of sweats for it's including a play on game
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seven. Well, a Canadian team finally
3:08
win the Stanley Cup. It's been forever, but Oilers
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after being down O3, have won three straight force a game
3:14
seven and now flips back to Florida.
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I have one of my favorite system matches of all time on tonight's
3:20
game, so stay tuned for that and then right back to our
3:23
wheelhouse with some MLB 5 pack of sweats for you guys,
3:26
including a couple bunch of big steam moves, some short numbers.
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See if we can get a few winners here on the diamond.
3:32
So without being without without further ado, let's get right
3:36
into it. I want to start off with that's
3:38
right, the biggest game the night, even though every play we
3:40
always mention is one unit. So you know one's you can call
3:43
it a big game or not, but when you're flat better, they're all
3:45
equal. They're all one unit.
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But anyway, the biggest game of the night is, of course,
3:49
Edmonton and Florida, game seven of the Stanley Cup finals.
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Now, let's start with the money line.
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And I'm going to give you my play, which is going to be on
3:55
the total. So on the money line, if you
3:57
tell me like Edmonton, I'm not going to argue with you.
3:59
I did notice a little bit of movement here toward the
4:01
Edmonton Oilers. You had most shops open with
4:04
Florida around a -, 120 home favorite.
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Now it's basically a pick'em game -110 both sides.
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And I'm seeing maybe one or two shops go to like -112 with
4:14
Edmonton. So again, this line is evening
4:16
out. You've seen a complete shift
4:19
here in this series where Florida look dominant, look like
4:21
they would sweep and then completely, completely imploded.
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Edmonton's been unbelievable. And Connor McDavid and he's like
4:26
over -2000 now to be the the Conn Smythe Award winner.
4:30
But looking at the current splits here for tonight's games,
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tonight's game here back in Florida, you have 66% of bets,
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69% of money on Edmonton with a little bit of line movement
4:40
toward Edmonton. So, you know, if you force me to
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to lean one side, I would lean Edmonton based on this line
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move. But I preface this pod here by
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saying I have one of my favorite system matches of all time on
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this game and you guys know what it is.
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Game 7 unders, baby. That's right.
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When it gets to game seven, it can be both for the Stanley Cup
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playoffs and the NBA Finals. Game seven is all about unders,
5:03
not unders, unders. Why is that?
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Because the style of play and what's at stake.
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You get to a game seven, number one, you have a lot of data, a
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lot of experience against that specific team.
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You've played a grueling 6 game series thus far.
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There's not a much there's not a lot in terms of surprises when
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it comes to this deep in a series.
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You know your opponent, you kind of know what they do well, you
5:23
know what they don't do well. A lot of familiarity there.
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So kind of familiarity, you know, levels the playing field,
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kind of somewhat benefits the defense.
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But really when it comes to game seven, it's all about the style
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of play in terms of hey, you're faced with elimination.
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It's a tight game. Game sevens are always, you
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know, hey, like back in the day with the Red Sox, don't let us
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win tonight 'cause we got we got chilling, we got Pedro.
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And then anything can happen in the game seven.
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So just the anything can happen factor of a game seven.
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Sometimes you come out, you know, a little bit tight.
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You don't want to make too many, you know, aggressive moves and,
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you know, have a turnover and give out a breakaway the other
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way. So you kind of play a little bit
5:58
more conservative, which leads to lower scoring games
6:01
historically. So here is the kicker.
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And this is really the main reason why I'm betting on this
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NHL game. 7:00 tonight. Oh, actually there's a couple
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reasons, so let me give you the first one just from the the
6:10
current perspective. Then I'll give you the epic epic
6:13
system match. Basically the updated record for
6:16
Game 7 unders. In terms of tonight though, the
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market is screaming under and I was actually saying, you know,
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hey, should I play the under or not?
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My only question was man, the juice is so high because if you
6:27
look at these 5 1/2's across the board, this total opened at 5
6:30
1/2. Every book I look is 5 1/2 under
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-145 1/2 under -150 So this is about as high as it gets for
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juice. And you actually have some books
6:41
that have dropped now down to five.
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So if you're down to five, then it's 5 / -, 130, you know, 5 /
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-, 140. This is one of those unders
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where you got to get the hook. Like again, talk about this all
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the time, the importance of having multiple outs, being able
6:56
to shop around. If you're going to play this
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under 5 1/2 with me, you got to have the five and a half because
7:00
of this lands 4 to one, you know three to two.
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You know you you'd love A2 to 2GO into overtime game as long
7:07
as you're not sweating the money line there.
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But whole point being got to get the five and a half.
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If you only get a 5 three to two four to one, you push instead of
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win. So you make sure you shop
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around. They are widely available, but
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this is so expensive. I think it's expensive for a
7:21
reason. So you have liability under
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every book. 5 1/2 under -140 -, 150 shop around.
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I got 5 1/2 under at -145. But here's the other factor #1
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post season Game 7 unders this post season three, and O now you
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might say, oh, maybe that's lucky, maybe it's Smokey, maybe
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it's just this year where they're good.
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Nope, No, no, no, no, no, take a bath, take a take a step back
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here. Let's go all the way back to
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2010, 2010, the year I just graduated college, just moved to
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Boston. That's how long ago it's been.
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But anyway, since 2010, Game 7 unders in the Stanley Cup play
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offs are 39 and 1967%. You're literally winning 2/3 of
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the time. When you go game seven under,
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you'd be up 14 units. So over the last 10 years, $100
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better's up $1400. Twenty, 3% ROI.
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And then based on, you know, this juice screaming under, you
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also kind of have the factor here of just a contrarian play
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because right now 69% of bets are going over.
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So if the public is leaning over, this is going to end up
8:23
being the most heavily backed hockey game of the season.
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Why are they juicing up the under?
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Like if everyone's betting over, why are they saying, oh, you'd
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like the over Come get the five and a half over and we will give
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you plus 130. You know, just seems too good to
8:36
be true. Seems fishy.
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So the fact we have a juiced up under 5 1/2 again some shops
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even down to five Publix over yet it's a reverse line move
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juice play to the under. We have game seven under 67%
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since 2010. I'm going under here guys is
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when my favorite system matches. It's almost like it just blindly
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play it every time Game 7 Stanley Cup or game sorry, game
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seven NBA playoffs or Game 7 NHL Stanley Cup playoffs doesn't
9:01
matter. They're both great.
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It's all about the style of play and typically you see these
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lower scoring games. So knock on wood.
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You know, we we started this series.
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I want to say the first two games sailed under.
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Yeah, it was a three O and a four one.
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The last let's see four, I think have all gone over.
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Now the series shifts back to Florida where the two games went
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under early to start. So hopefully style of play
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again. I'm worried because you got a
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lot of scoring here on the Edmonton side, really both
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sides, but hopefully we can stay under and this game seven
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historical trend falls through. I'm on the Florida Panthers,
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Edmonton Oilers under under 5 1/2 at -145 keep on cruising
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over to some Major League Baseball.
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We have a 12 game and we'll be slate here for tonight and a
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bunch of system matches. Bunch of good steam moves here.
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So let's start to hit on them right now.
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First one on the board, Tampa Bay Rays.
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Tampa Bay Rays here tonight at home playing host to the Seattle
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Mariners. And first thing to notice about
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this game would be kind of just the fact that doesn't make sense
10:00
with this line move because if you go look going into it, let's
10:03
set the stage here. The Mariners are coming in, by
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the way, to say, 6:50 PM Eastern Time.
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First pitch to make sure you're able to get this one in.
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You expect it to be at 7. Hopefully Tampa Bay's already up
10:12
on nothing. Hint, hint.
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I'm on Tampa, but I'll give you the reasons why.
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Mariners 45 and 35, however, not playing great as of yet.
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They just dropped two or three against the Marlins.
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They lost yesterday six to four as a -, 150 Rd. favorite.
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Meanwhile, the rays 38 and 40 don't expect them to be under
10:28
500 this at this point of the year.
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Usually they're you know, you don't know how they do it, but
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usually they're above 500 anyway.
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Been a bit of a down year, but they did just take two of three
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against the pirates. They won three to one yesterday
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as a + 145 row dog. So So for the series opener here
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tonight, Mariners are going with the righty Brian Wu, who's three
10:47
and one with the 1.67 ERA and the rays are going with fellow
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righty Taj Bradley, who's two and four, the four point O 6
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ERA. But here's where it gets a
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little bit fishy. This game opened Seattle -115 on
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the road basically minus one O 5 Tampa Bay and the public is
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saying, hey, Seattle much better record 1010 games above 500,
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Razer 2 games below 500. Let's hammer Seattle here at a
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very, very short chalk price. However, despite nearly 60% of
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money line bets on Seattle, the line has flipped dog to favorite
11:18
in favor of Tampa Bay. We're now seeing Tampa Bay at
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-115 So if 6 out of 10 bets are on Seattle, why is this line
11:26
flipping toward Tampa Bay? Why are the odds makers handing
11:29
out an even better price for the public on Seattle when they're
11:32
hammering Seattle to begin with? You guys know the drill here.
11:35
Doesn't make sense. Lines going away from the
11:37
popular side toward the unpopular side.
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That's a reverse line move telling us that Tampa Bay is
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taking in some sharp dog to favorite RLM now Tampa Bay.
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I also like the fact that it just doesn't make sense.
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Again, why is a team that's below 500 favorite over a team
11:51
that's 10 games above 500? I want to embrace that fishy
11:54
side. Tampa Bay, by the way,
11:56
correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total Game 7
11:59
1/2 in this one. And really it's juiced up under
12:02
like it may even get down to seven.
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But fewer amount of expected runs scored, more likely to come
12:06
from the better team was not the better team won loss record, but
12:10
better team who's expected to win based upon having that minus
12:13
number in front of their odds. And then you look over the last
12:16
10 games, Razor six and four, they're hitting 254.
12:19
Mariners are five and five. They're only hitting 216.
12:21
So hopefully the bats of Tampa come to life tonight.
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Then you dig a little bit deeper in these pitchers.
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Taj Bradley, his numbers don't seem amazing on the year.
12:28
He's got a four point O 6 ERA, but his last two starts he's
12:32
only giving up two runs in 13 innings.
12:34
Raised won both games and he has a 2.1 OERA at home compared to
12:39
816 on the road. So he's been terrible on the
12:41
road. He's been good at home.
12:42
But this to me is all about the the reverse line move dog to
12:45
fave in favor of the team. The worst record, which would be
12:48
Tampa tells me we got some sharp money here hitting the race.
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I'm going Tampa Bay guys, give me the Tampa Bay Rays.
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Shop around. I got the Rays around -110 keep
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on cruising. A late evolving play for me.
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I kind of had my eye on this game early this morning when I
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wrote the sharp report for beeson.com.
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But I said, hey, it really hasn't moved enough.
13:06
Let's give it some time, see if maybe in the early afternoon it
13:09
gets hit. And guess what it did.
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So I'm talking about Pittsburgh Pirates in Cincinnati Red Legs.
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Now going into this one, we've seen both these teams obviously
13:20
coming from the same division, which would be the NL East.
13:24
But the Pittsburgh Pirates come in 37 and 40.
13:28
The Pittsburgh Pirates just lost two or three against Tampa Bay.
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The Reds meanwhile, 36 and 41, they just lost two or three
13:35
against Boston. So both teams looking to get
13:37
back on track here. But the pitching match up, we
13:40
have Bailey Falter, the lefty going for Pittsburgh three and
13:43
five, 3.74 ERA. He'll be opposed by Carson
13:46
Spears, who is O&O with a 3.2 OERN.
13:50
What are we seeing across the market here?
13:52
Well, I was telling you, I was waiting for that late move
13:54
because I saw a couple cent moves.
13:55
It was like like basically when I was looking this morning, it
13:58
was like basically -110 to -114 -, 115 towards Cincinnati.
14:03
So like, OK, Cincinnati looks like they're getting a little
14:06
bit of action, but I'm glad I waited.
14:08
You know, I'm not glad because I'm not getting as good of a
14:10
number anymore, but I'm glad I got that indication.
14:12
That sharp money really hammered Cincinnati early afternoon.
14:16
So Cincinnati again after hanging around -110 -, 115 just
14:20
got bet up to -125 S about a 10/15 cents theme move in favor
14:25
of Cincinnati. Late telling a smart money's
14:27
hitting the Reds. The Reds are getting 69% of
14:30
bets, but 83% of money. A great low bets, higher dollars
14:34
bet split once it's the match that I love on this one.
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Both teams are below 500. Take the favorite, basically the
14:40
lesser of two evils. Favorite here would be the Red
14:42
Legs. They're 160 and one O 959% with
14:45
a 2% ROI, both losing records. Take the the favorite last 10
14:50
since he has got better stats rating 2:27 with an ERA of 3.14.
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Pittsburgh's hitting 215, ERA of 440.
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And if you look at run differential, even though
15:01
technically I guess the Pittsburgh Pirates are one game
15:03
of better than the Reds, probably they've gotten a little
15:06
lucky here. Their run differential for the
15:07
Pirates is -33 run differential for Cincinnati is +9.
15:12
So basically, if you have about the same record but one team has
15:16
scored 33 less than they've they've given up, the other team
15:19
scored nine more than they've given up, probably the -33 is
15:22
getting lucky, the +9 is getting unlucky.
15:25
So hopefully have regression to the mean here.
15:27
Also digging in these pitchers. Bailey falter.
15:29
I want to bet against him. He's made three June starts.
15:32
Pittsburgh's lost all three games.
15:34
He has a 6 ERA in three June starts.
15:36
And then if you look at Carson Spears, kind of a young kid,
15:39
he's only made a few appearances, but he has a 2.2
15:42
OERA at home, 5 on the road. So he's been better at home.
15:46
But really, this is all about a late move toward the Reds.
15:49
So give me this late movement, I'm going red legs at -120 keep
15:53
on cruising. Next up, my Boston Red Sox
15:56
against the Toronto Blue Jays. Now coming in this one, we have
16:00
two teams completely treading in opposite directions.
16:03
Red Sox are hot. They've won 123456789 of their
16:08
last eleven games. They actually just swept Toronto
16:11
last series last week, but the Red Sox come in 42 and 36
16:15
Toronto. Meanwhile, 35 and 42 Toronto has
16:19
completely gone the other way. I think they've lost what, six
16:21
straight 123456 the office 8. They've lost eight of their last
16:27
eight of their last ten. They've really struggled in the
16:29
spot. So in situations like this,
16:32
sometimes you feel like, hey, due for a regression here,
16:36
Boston's due for a loss, Toronto's due for a win, right?
16:39
That's kind of the due theory, but you don't want to bet it
16:40
based upon the due theory because you really want to go
16:43
with what the market's doing, not just an assumption.
16:46
So this is another game where early on, I didn't really see
16:49
much on this one. It was kind of Red Sox -145 -.
16:53
150 really didn't move at all. And then just like the Reds
16:56
game, early afternoon, a ton of steam, I think it was around
17:00
like noon or 1:00, hammered Boston.
17:02
So Boston got that up now for -150 all the way up to -165 some
17:08
shops even inching up toward -170.
17:11
Now the Red Sox are getting 88% of bets, 90% of money.
17:14
So a heavy pro and Joe bets split in their favor.
17:17
Pitching matchup hopefully benefits Boston here.
17:19
Tanner Houck is on the mound. He could be an All Star.
17:21
He's great. Seven and five, 2.14 ERA.
17:24
He'll be opposed by Chris Bassett, who is 6 and six with a
17:28
3.52 ERA. But looking toward this match up
17:31
here. Again, to me, it's all about the
17:33
steam on Boston coming in late afternoon -150 to -165.
17:37
But I'm also going to bank on a few things #1 the Red Sox
17:40
offense, they're hitting 25486 homers, 360, three runs scored.
17:45
Toronto is only hitting 23267 homers, 296 runs scored.
17:50
And then last 10 Red Sox eight and two hitting 290, three 3.54
17:56
ERA. Toronto last 10-2 and eight,
17:58
hitting only 231 with a 4.81 ERA.
18:02
So all of the basically, you know, indicators here would be
18:05
on Boston, the line move, pitching advantage pro and Joe
18:09
Bet split with a steam steam move in their favor, recent
18:13
performance as both pitching and hitting and their offense all
18:17
all lighting up here on Boston. So again, seems obvious.
18:20
Red Sox are hot, Toronto's cold. But looks like wise guys are
18:24
agreeing that the play here is Boston.
18:26
So I'm a Sox fan, of course I don't like to force a bet on my
18:29
favorite team, but if my favorite team happens to be
18:31
sharp, I'll play them like any other game.
18:34
So give me the Red Sox here guys.
18:35
Good sharp move. I got Boston at -165 keep on
18:40
cruising. Two more for you. 8:10 PM
18:42
Eastern Time Texas Rangers and the Milwaukee Brew Crew now
18:46
going into this one. The Rangers are 37 and 40 just
18:49
swept A3 game series against the Royals.
18:51
They won yesterday 4 nothing as a -. 160 home favorite.
18:55
Meanwhile, the Brew Crew 45 and 33.
18:57
But they did, however, just drop two of three against the pods.
19:00
They did avoid a sweep though. They won six to two yesterday
19:03
and the series finale as a + 120 Rd. dog.
19:06
So Fortnight's interleague series opener in Milwaukee.
19:09
Rangers are going with righty Michael Lorenzen, who's four and
19:12
three with an ERA of three. He'll be opposed by the Brewers
19:15
righty Freddy Peralta, five and four, four point O 6 ERA.
19:19
So what are we seeing across the market here?
19:21
Well, the theme of the day is steam, baby.
19:24
Steam is a sudden change in line movement across the marketplace.
19:26
The entire market gets hit by sharp action, causes a big
19:29
adjustment in the price, at least $0.10 or more.
19:32
Well, Milwaukee's taking the steam here, so give me the Brew
19:34
Crew. Brew Crew open this game around
19:36
-150 -, 155. Now they've been bet up to -175
19:41
it's about a 20 cent steam move on Milwaukee.
19:43
They're getting around 70% of bets and dollars.
19:46
So both pro and Joe support with that big steam move.
19:48
I'm going to bank on Milwaukee's offense.
19:50
They're hitting two 55376 runs scored.
19:54
Texas is only hitting 2:38 with 329 runs scored.
19:57
And then also Milwaukee interleague favorite.
20:00
Again, lack of familiarity benefiting the better team.
20:03
I have a system match here, home interleague favorites off a win.
20:05
They're about 59% this season. But also like kind of a buy low,
20:09
sell high play because Texas is actually playing pretty well.
20:12
Texas has won four straight. Milwaukee has lost three of
20:16
their last four. So unlike the Red Sox, where Sox
20:18
are hot, Toronto's cold and you think, hey, regression, maybe no
20:22
sharps went with the hot team. Boston, well here looks like
20:25
they're buying low on Milwaukee cause Texas is hot.
20:28
Won four in a row. Milwaukee's lost three or four.
20:30
Hit the line open favorite with the team who's lost three or
20:33
four, and now the team who's lost three or four is getting
20:35
steamed even harder. So this seems to be the
20:38
regression play buying glow in favor of Milwaukee.
20:41
Now the Brewers, they're great as a chalk favorite.
20:43
They're 26 and 1563% with a 10% ROI as a favorite this year.
20:48
That's 6th best in baseball. And they're actually 20 and 969%
20:54
with a 17% ROI as a favorite against the team with a losing
20:57
record of below 500. And then home Rd. splits Rangers
21:00
17 and 21 on the road. Brewers are 22 and 12 at home.
21:04
So it just seems kind of like, hey, there's a big number.
21:07
I had someone tweet me and say really like you're going to lay
21:09
it out with Freddy Peralta -175 yes, I am.
21:13
I got a little bit earlier closer to like -170 but this one
21:16
looks fishy in favor of Milwaukee.
21:18
And again, something I learned a long time ago in betting is if
21:20
it looks fishy, don't think you're smarter than the books
21:23
and they got it wrong and you're the one person who knows that
21:26
they got it wrong. No, they, they get, they always
21:28
get it. They don't always, obviously the
21:31
favorite doesn't always win, but in terms of setting a number and
21:34
adjusting a number, they're doing it for a reason.
21:36
And that's because smart money is taking a position.
21:38
So Long story short, I'm making some beer tonight even though
21:41
I'm I'm a little bit hungover and don't want to even think
21:44
about beer right now after I had a great wedding weekend with my
21:46
buddies. But I am going to go money line
21:48
here with Milwaukee. Let's go beer makers at -175
21:54
last game of the night in Major League Baseball late 1 here,
21:56
Oakland and the LA Angels. Now you may say, hey, two
22:00
terrible teams, who cares about this one, right?
22:02
Well, looks like we got a sharp move on the Halos Angels coming
22:06
in this 129 and or sorry, Athletics come in 29 and 51.
22:10
They did lose just two. They just lost two or three
22:13
against the Twins. They lost 3 nothing yesterday as
22:15
a + 150 home dog. Meanwhile, the Halos are 30 and
22:19
46. They just split A2 game series
22:21
against the Dodgers. They did lose the finale on
22:23
Saturday yesterday 7/2 as a + 330.
22:26
Big number there as a road dog for tonight's series opener.
22:30
The A's are going with Luis Medina one and two, 4.71 ERA.
22:34
Griffin Canning is going for the Angels.
22:37
He's 2185 point O2 ERA. What are we seeing across the
22:40
market here? Well, I told you the theme of
22:42
the day is Steam Angels are getting steamed.
22:44
Angels open this game around a -, 125 home favorite.
22:48
They've now been bet up all the way to -135 -, 140.
22:52
It's about a 15 cent steam move in favor of the Halos.
22:55
They're getting around 70% bets. So public support Ian that sharp
22:59
steam move in their favor same system match just mentioned a
23:04
minute ago with two teams below 500 that Pittsburgh Cincy game
23:08
well, Oakland, LA, both under 502 sub 500 teams face off.
23:13
The favorite is 160 and one oh 960% with a 2% ROI.
23:18
Angels also have a rest verse tired advantage because the
23:21
angels were off yesterday and the athletics played the twins.
23:24
So when you're a favorite coming off a day off like the Angels
23:27
here against the team who played the previous day, those teams
23:30
are 350 and two, 3560% since 2018.
23:35
Angels have the more potent offense.
23:36
Hopefully their bats come alive tonight.
23:38
They're hitting 235 with 307 runs scored.
23:41
Oakland's only only hitting 221 with 288 runs scored.
23:45
And then also keep an eye on the over here.
23:48
Probably missed the boat, but I did see smart money over 8 1/2.
23:52
Move that number up to 9 and that's a pretty good bet.
23:54
Split in the wind is blowing out at Angel Stadium, so I didn't
23:57
play the total again, but I guess if we're looking for more
24:00
offense, hopefully that offense comes from the Halos.
24:03
But either way, guys, add it all up.
24:05
Good sharp steam move in favor of the Angels.
24:07
Let's see if the Halos can hopefully get it done for us.
24:10
I got the Angels around -135 S A5 pack here.
24:14
Can we get three or more Tampa Bay Rays, Cincinnati Red legs,
24:17
Boston Red Sox, Milwaukee Brew Crew and the LA Angels?
24:22
That about does it for episode 62 of the all systems go sports
24:25
betting podcast powered by rhythm.
24:28
Have you downloaded your rhythm free seven day trial yet?
24:31
I hope you have, but if not, go do it right now.
24:33
You can just pause the pod or just listen to my voice.
24:36
Then you can pause because I'm going to give you the directions
24:38
how to do it. But if you're listening on
24:39
Spotify, you can just go to the body of this podcast.
24:43
The basically the, the page where you hit play, Scroll down,
24:47
hit the description where I tell you, hey, we got 66 sweats
24:49
today, yadda, yadda, yadda. There's going to be a breakdown
24:52
and a couple links to sign up for Rhythm, which if you haven't
24:55
done it yet, again, gives you a great leg up when it comes to
24:57
data back predictions for both prop bets as well as game
25:01
models. And then also they'll be a link
25:04
for a download of a seven day trial for Juice Reel, who's
25:08
another app that we work with that does a great job.
25:11
You can sync up your sports books to Juice Reel.
25:14
You submit a bet in, you know, ESPN bet or FanDuel or or
25:18
DraftKings, it'll automatically show up in Juice Reel.
25:20
It'll track your performance. You can learn about yourself as
25:22
a better learn more your strengths and weaknesses.
25:25
There are the arbitrage opportunities each day
25:27
highlighted in the Juice Reel app, the Robo Jackson bets as
25:30
well as the sharp mush plays, which are really your top pro
25:33
versus Joe bets in the app. So either way, 2 great apps to
25:37
help you win. Go sign up for Rhythm as well As
25:40
for Juice Reel. You can click the link on my
25:43
Twitter page at Josh under score Insights or again in the bio
25:46
description of this pod. It'll be located there as well.
25:49
Of course, if you enjoy this podcast, I'm going to ask
25:53
something of you #1 thank you. Thank you for tuning in and
25:56
pulling up a chair to the virtual bar.
25:58
Sweat and sharp contrary and plays with me every day.
26:00
It means the world to me that we have built this community of
26:02
data-driven betters. And whether you play every game,
26:05
I recommend, whether you pick and choose, whether you fade
26:08
them all, do your thing. But I appreciate you listening.
26:11
Just know that if I mention a bet, I personally have skin in
26:14
the game. That's the side that I've taken.
26:16
But seriously, thank you for tuning in.
26:18
Can you do me a favor? Can you give this podcast a 5
26:20
star review on Spotify or iTunes?
26:23
It would really help to help us grow up, growing, and rise up
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the ranks, gain some credibility, more likes, more
26:28
attention. I want to build this pot
26:30
organically and if you could follow it so you get alerted as
26:33
soon as it comes out and give it a 5 star review really really
26:36
would make my day. So thank you so much.
26:39
Lastly, if you enjoy this pod and you want to learn more,
26:42
you're intrigued by data-driven betting and how to attack each
26:45
sport, but overall how to become a data-driven better, then guess
26:48
what? I wrote a book.
26:49
Go buy my book. It's less than 20 bucks.
26:51
It's got a lot of great information.
26:53
Buy it for yourself or for a friend or gift it for a birthday
26:57
gift or, or, you know, stocking stuffer later in the year.
27:00
But it's got everything I've learned in the industry.
27:01
How lines are set, how and why they move, how to read line
27:04
movement, how to locate sharp action, how to place a bet in
27:06
person or online, how to shop for the best line, how to set up
27:09
a bankroll management plan, all included in the Everything Guide
27:12
to Sports betting, which you can just buy on Amazon.
27:15
If you want to pick one up, I'll sign it for you at the book.
27:18
I'll buy you a beer or a ginger ale, whatever, whatever your
27:21
drink of choices. But seriously, you've already
27:23
bought one. Thank you.
27:24
It means the world to me. With that being said, whether I
27:27
see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in
27:30
Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan
27:32
Sun, down in Connecticut, at the Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge
27:35
Park Casino or MGM Springfield. In my neck of the woods in
27:38
Massachusetts. Or out in the desert where the
27:40
true grinders get down. Or Billy Walters sends his
27:43
number runners where lowest use possible is found at the South
27:45
Point. Or sweating sharp contrarian
27:47
plays jumping in the stadium swim pool.
27:49
When you catch a big ticket at Circa, wherever it may be,
27:52
you're going to walk up to me and you're going to flash me a
27:54
Mueen Gufarov or Gofurov. I can't pronounce his name
27:58
correctly, but I know we won. So shout out to Muin Gufarov.
28:03
Flashed me that ticket again. Low bets, higher dollars, sharp
28:05
RLM youth advantage, chef's kiss.
28:08
Couldn't have worked out any better.
28:10
Guess what? First one's on me, next one's on
28:11
you. We're going to post about the
28:12
book so that sharp contrarian plays all night long.
28:15
Lastly, say a prayer for my beer league.
28:18
Softball team is going to be a tough one for me tonight.
28:20
This is round two of the post season.
28:23
We're a big underdog. We, I might have told you this,
28:26
but I think we were O and nine. We were so terrible.
28:28
We led the league in vibes and we have a really cool, awesome
28:32
group of people, but we could never win.
28:34
We won our first postseason game and we're trying to shock the
28:37
world and win round two. Your boy just had a pretty fun
28:40
wedding weekend. So I need to rebound.
28:42
The game's tonight at 9:15 under the lights in Cambridge.
28:45
So say your prayer for for the beer league softball team
28:48
tonight. But hopefully I'll be ready to
28:50
go. Hopefully we'll get a win.
28:51
Hopefully we'll get some winners here with a game seven under as
28:55
well as some baseball hits. That about does it, everyone.
28:58
My parting words, as always, stay sharp, stay contrarian.
29:01
Bet against the public, place yourself on the side of the
29:03
house. Always be with the smart money,
29:05
never against it. Will smart money win every time?
29:08
Of course not. If you haven't realized yet,
29:10
betting is hard, it ain't easy, which gives you perspective when
29:13
you're winning and when you're losing as well.
29:15
Don't get down on yourself. We work in a very difficult
29:17
market, but we embrace the challenge each day.
29:19
Each day. That's what makes to me betting
29:21
fun and rewarding when you win because it's hard and it's it's
29:24
not easy to do. But if we can find that sweet
29:26
spot, fearless but disciplined against the public, with the
29:29
house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays, get that CLV.
29:33
If we can do that, we're going to be successful sports bettors.
29:36
So enjoy the sweats. Everyone, have a fantastic
29:38
Monday and I'll be back at it tomorrow for episode 63 of the
29:42
All Systems Go sports betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
29:46
Have a great Monday everyone, good luck.